Financial Mirror 20141224 by Financial Mirror

FinancialMirror JIM LEONTIADES

JEFFREY FRANKEL

Crime and punishment in Cyprus - PAGE 6

Why are commodity prices falling? - BACK PAGE

Issue No. 1114 â&#x201A;Ź1.00 December 24 - 30, 2014

Is the ECB doing enough? It might extend asset purchases, says chief economist - PAGE 7

Cloud picking up in Cyprus and Greece, says SAP regional boss PAGE 8

December 24 - 30, 2014

2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

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A lot has been said about ‘public sector reform’ and other ambitious programmes that merely aim to satisfy the wider public opinion that is disappointed, disgusted even, by the incompetence of people in power. The political parties (the idiots with the arrogance to say ‘no’ to the first haircut on deposits in March 2013, only to unleash the wrath of Eurozone partners, for which we are still suffering today), are clinging on to their parliamentary seats and imposing on the sheep-like voters to retain party favourites as mayors and municipal councilors. They also keep on reassuring government and wider public sector employees that their jobs are safe, simply to secure these votes. The President of the Republic declared that (some day) he would introduce six deputy ministers, to help with the increased workload of the Cabinet members, while the commissioner for reform is about to dot the ‘i’s and cross the ‘t’s of his new framework that is said to bring about radical changes to the civil service. Even the business community has been hearing about the concept of a ‘one stop shop’ for decades that has yet to materialise for the simple reason that government departments are not cooperating. Actually, Cyprus does not need reform. It has an abundance of laws and regulations in place. Transparency and meritocracy should never have

been issues, as there are ways, simple ones even, to introduce checks and balances. The only problem is implementing these laws and regulations, which no one bothers with. The final straw was when the Auditor General, the inspector of public spending and good practices, discovered that senior civil servants were allowed a mobile phone allowance and when the abolition of this perk was being proposed, they all said, “if you cut of this allowance, we simply won’t answer our phones”. It is not the audacity of the ones saying it, but the stupidity of the others accepting this excuse. Walk into any government service nowadays, when due to end-of-year payments and documentation, there is supposed to be an increased workload on the counters and at the desks. Yet, with some departments having seen their workforce reduced to a third, the work is still being done just as before, sometimes even faster. And they even found time in many offices to close early for their traditional parties. What the Commissioner for Public Sector Reform should do is introduce ‘rules of good governance’ and find way to reward hard-working and productive civil servants and punish those who are a waste and a burden on the taxpayer. The methods would include external audits, random checks and keeping the trade unions out of the decision making process. Given the proper guidelines and incentives, many civil servants would be willing to work more, for less, even if their superiors enjoy the idiotic mobile phone allowance.

THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO

Turkey eyes EU, Cyprus euro target in 2008

The European Union was preparing to open its doors to Turkey’s accession ambitions, but Ankara was not sure if the cost of membership was worth the sacrifices it would have to make, the Financial Mirror reported in issue 599, on December 15, 2004. Turkey decision: Ahead of the decision on the start of EU accession talks, Turkey itself is debating the merits not of membership itself, but whether the concessions that need to be made are worth it and whether the Union is indeed sincere, following the discussions about “conditions”, such as the

20 YEARS AGO

Tax changes, Turkey ‘stuffed’, COLA time-bomb

Turkey got stuffed for Christmas due to its poor human rights record that was hampering a customs union with the European Union, the Cyprus Financial Mirror reported in issue 90, on December 21, 1994, while other headlines referred to new taxation amendments and the COLA time-bomb being defused in the labour sector. Tax changes: Finance Minister Christodoulos

recognition of the Republic of Cyprus, while Turkey has also made it clear it will not accept this, even in a de facto manner. Euro in 2008: In the final update to the May 2004 Convergence Programme, the government stuck by its intention to meet the Maastricht euro criterion for the budget in 2005, with a budget deficit of 2.9% of GDP and to adopt the euro “if possible in 2007”. However, since Finance Minister Makis Keravnos has announced that the government does not plan to apply for ERM II until the first or second quarter of 2005, adoption in 2007 is in fact unlikely. Lountza scare: The Health Ministry announced that amounts of contaminated lountza meat, pistachio nuts and dried apricots were being recalled

from the market, warning consumers to stay clear. Agriculture Minister Timis Efthymiou slammed the state vet services for “incredible” negligence and delays in tracking down and going public with the problem. Cyta slow on 3G: Cyta said it does not plan to rush with the introduction of third generation (3G) mobile phone services, citing the lack of products in the market. Rival newcomer Areeba said it would launch its own 3G service on December 20. Flocking to ASE: A record number of 5600 Cypriot investors have opened trading accounts in Greece and until the end of November 2004 held EUR 1.8 bln or 5.88% of the market capitalisation of the stocks listed on the Athens Exchange. CSE Chairman Akis Cleanthous said in his appeals to parliament that tax incentives be given to local and foreigners on mutual funds to attract interest.

Christodoulou, appointed a mere two months ago, is already reported to be preparing the market with new tax regulations for public companies and dividends, to be incorporate in the 1995 Budget to be tabled in the House this week. Turkey stuffing: Turkey, probably the worst abuser of basic human rights in the world, saw its hopes of sealing a customs union pact with the EU blocked after ministers in Brussels raised concern over human rights violations against the Kurdish minority and after Greece’s objections over lack of progress on the Cyprus problem. COLA ease: The cost of living allowance (COLA) issue, probably the most explosive problem threatening the future of industrial peace on the island

will be discussed in intensive talks from January 5 to May 5, with President Clerides admitting that “we are facing a problem of competitiveness, agreed by both the employers and the unions. Doctors reject NHS: Following a marathon meeting, the Cyprus Medical Association has rejected the government’s proposals and terms for the start of the national health scheme, claiming that the suggested plan did not take into account the current conditions. Thomson bookings: Cyprus is the most important destination in the UK market after Mallorca, with 6-7% of a total market of 12 mln holidaymakers, according to a Thomson Tour Operators official. The company expects to sell more than 200,000 holiday packages to Cyprus for 1995, up 15% from previous years, with 50,000 already sold for Summer 1995.

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December 24 - 30, 2014

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3

Foreigners grab 6-year retail bonds

P D M O s a y s d e m a n d t o p s €3 3 7 m l n , u p f r o m €2 27 mln last month

Demand for 6-year Cyprus government retail bonds shot up to EUR 36.7 mln this month, up from 27.4 mln the previous month, with most of the interest continuing to come from foreign investors. The issue has so far raised nearly EUR 100 mln for the state coffers, after the previous month’s retail bond had brought the total to EUR 61.5 mln, half of the amount the state planned to raise from investors. This was the eighth issue of the programme that aimed

to raise EUR 120 mln a year, but was slow to pick up in the first series. The Public Debt Management Office at the Ministry of Finance said that once again the issue was oversubscribed and that foreign interest had risen 93%, up from 91% in the December issue. The interest rate of the 2015 issue is reportedly 0.5% lower than the first year. Depending on the holding period, the 2015 issue offers an annual interest rate of 2.5% for holding the securities

up to 24 months and gradually increases to 5.5% for a minimum of 60 months holding. The annual coupon rate for the 2014 series started from 2.75% and averaged at an attractive 4% over a sixyear period, with a minimal 3% income tax on the interest, far better than the 30% imposed on all interest-yielding products. Next, is the February 2015 series, the ninth so far, with applications open from January 2 to 20 and issued on February 2, 2015.

Anastasiades: Confidence has been restored President Nicos Anastasiades said on Tuesday that confidence has been restored both in the public sector and in the banking sector. Making his first official statements after resuming office, following a three week absence to undergo a heart operation in New York’s Mount Sinai Hospital to repair his mitral valve, the President said: “The government succeeded not only to reverse the numbers, but also to restore confidence, at least in the public financial sector of the state.” He said this came “through a series of positive reviews by the Troika (of international lenders), through a series of upgrades by the credit rating agencies, by having sought successfully and securing loans from the markets which are among the strictest judges.” He also said that there was an increased “willingness by certain individuals to invest in the financial system, the trustworthiness of which we have equally succeeded to restore through the latest trials of the stress tests”. Admitting that the 22 months of his administration had been bumpy, Anastasiades said that he was ready to discuss the possibility of a ‘national unity government’ in order to proceed faster with making progress and trying to resolve the Cyprus problem. He said that there would be changes at the Presidency, with the plan expected to be announced soon after the holidays. Over the weekend and soon after he had returned home, Anastasiades had said that he will lay out his plans for major reforms. Among the priorities are changes at the Presidential Palace, where “some new people might arrive and other might leave,” said Government Spokesman Nicos Christodoulides. On the issue of the establishment of a “national unity government”, Christodoulides said this was in response to the national challenges and the Cyprus problem. Talks with the Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglou were halted last month when Turkey sent its seismic vessel Barbaros into the Cyprus exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to explore for oil and gas deposits and boost’ Ankara’s bid for a share in future resources and revenues, claiming these in the name of the Turkish Cypriot community. As regards any mediation efforts for the talks to resume,

the President said: “We must always be frank. Both our reservations and our rights are understood. Equally understood is also the fact that beyond the diplomatic attempts or efforts they make, some of the countries avoid public confrontation because of the big interests they have vested with Turkey, which is either geostrategically useful for some in the war against the Islamic State or because Turkey is a big market that is of interest to many of these countries”. He added that “we have recent examples, but I do not want to make a more specific reference”. Asked whether there was a reply from Ankara on the positions he himself had conveyed to Turkey, through the Greek government, and if he is satisfied with the replies, Anastasiades said: “I will answer in a straightforward manner.

Draft bill for casino resort goes to parliament The draft bill that will regulate the establishment, operation, function, control and supervision of a casino resort has been sent to parliament, after it was approved by the Council of Ministers two weeks ago. The government said that “the relevant regulations have been drafted and, following the completion of legal review by the Office of the Attorney General, will be presented to the House of Representatives for enactment.” The Ministry of Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism has invited interested parties to provide comments relating to the draft regulations, which have been posted on the Ministry’s website, www.mcit.gov.cy while comments can be sent by email to casinoresort@mcit.gov.cy until January 16, 2015. The draft bill determines a single casino-resort operator, who may also issue sub-licenses to smaller gaming operators in other locations. This will now send all the towns’ tourism bodies and hotel operators into a frenzy to lure the operator, with one argument saying the location should be a seaside town, while other prefer the capital or even the mountainous regions that need a tourism boost. The draft bill also lays down the ground rules for gaming, amounts to be allowed and screening of locals to prevent issues of addiction, as well as age limits and access.

The replies so far are not at all satisfactory. To the contrary, they create many problems.” Meanwhile, Spokesman Christodoulides said that the President’s visits to Russia and Israel are expected to take place some time in February. Cyprus has already embarked on a series of visits to Egypt and Greece to discuss future cooperation in oil and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and wants to include Israel and possibly Lebanon in future discussions. The mission to Moscow aims to explore prospects for economic cooperation in the face of increasing western pressure for more sanctions against Russia over eh crisis in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, with the fall in global oil prices hampering the Kremlin’s plans.

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December 24 - 30, 2014

4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

Poor natgas finds “no cause for disappointment”, LNG plant not shelved Failure of the initial offshore exploratory drilling by an Italian-Korean consortium to find significant quantities of gas should not be a cause for disappointment, President Nicos Anastasiades said after his Cabinet meeting on Tuesday following a three-week absence in New York to fix his heart’s mitral valve. The Energy Ministry had said on Friday that the SAIPEM 10000 rig belonging to the ENI-Kogas venture drilled to a depth of 5,800 meters at the Onasagoras prospect without success but that new drilling will begin elsewhere within the offshore Block 9 where the consortium has identified six potential gasfields. Anastasiades cited several examples where initial drills did not produce significant resources and referred to a large gas

field off the coast of Norway where substantial gas reserves were only discovered on the fourth attempt. He added that initial prospecting at Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar fields near the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) also did not point to encouraging results, but this was later reversed through major gas finds there. So far, Cyprus’ proven natural gas reserves offshore have been limited to a field in Block 12, where US-based Noble Energy has discovered between 3.6 trln and 6 trln cubic feet of gas – not enough for a land-based liquefaction facility. However, Anastasiades said that the government’s decision for the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal is still on the table, but stressed that this decision is subject to certain conditions.

He said that when the government took its initial decision it took into consideration information about a great amount of hydrocarbon reserves, which made this investment a viable one. The government has repeatedly stressed that the decision to build an LNG terminal will be finalized once the quantities for hydrocarbon reserves found in Cyprus’ EEZ allow such an investment to be viable. However, recent talks with Egypt and Israel could pave the way for natural gas to be piped straight to either country, either for liquefaction and local consumption or for export, possibly to western Europe that has seen significant supplies from Russia diverted to other markets over the crisis in Ukraine and European Union sanctions on Moscow.

U kr ai ne di s s olv es dou ble t a x t re at y , los in g $ 30 0m a y ea r

Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk said last week that his country was losing about $300 mln a year to tax-free investments in Cyprus, an argument he used to justify the abolition of the present double-taxation avoidance treaty. This is the second blow to the struggling Cyprus economy in a month, with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin introducing a bill last month that aims to repatriate Russian-owned investments on the island as of January 1, 2015, within the context of the “deoffshorisation” plan. Yatseniuk has had his sights on Cyprus for quite some time, alleging that cronies and relatives of ousted President Viktor Yanukovych, as well as pro-Russia oligarchs had set up companies on the island used for capital flight. During last Wednesday’s Cabinet meeting, “the denunciation of a convention between Ukraine’s government and the Republic of Cyprus” was at the top of the agenda and was promptly approved. Yatseniuk said that when this convention was signed in 2012, it was meant to protect the wealthiest part of the population, since it

included a 0% tax rate on the sale of property. “Since the property was sold via offshore companies, tax was paid neither in Ukraine, nor in Cyprus. That’s why the government is addressing parliament to back the denunciation of this document,” he said. However, toning down his rhetoric, Yatseniuk said that the Ukrainian government wants to renegotiate a new treaty with Cyprus, something which government officials in Nicosia have confirmed. The government in Kiev said it will immediately start negotiations with Cyprus on a new treaty that will comply with the standards of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Europe (OECD),” a benchmark already used by Cyprus for other treaties. Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a bill to “deoffshorise” businesses, whereby Russian shareholders will be required to pay taxes on the retained earnings of foreign companies in which they hold a controlling stake. This primarily applies to companies registered in offshore or any foreign jurisdictions. The aim is “to shrink the shadow economy

in Russia and retrieve capital that was previously taken out of the country. In light of low unemployment and the fact that production capacity is loaded at a virtual maximum, this factor is being considered as one of the key growth factors in the coming years,” said Anton Soroko, an analyst at the Finam investment holding. According to Soroko, once it is returned to Russian jurisdiction, this capital can be invested in the real sector, serve to create jobs, and put the Russian economy on a path toward sustainable economic growth. When preparing the bill, Russian legislators took into consideration amendments suggested by the government and coordinated

with big Russian business. In its original version, the bill required owners to pay taxes on the profit generated by foreign companies in which they own a 50% stake. That requirement was to last for two years, after which the threshold would have been lowered to 25%. However, State Duma deputies adjusted the bill for its second reading, reducing the transition period by a year. According to Natalya Kuznetsova, a partner at PwC and director of the International Tax Structuring Group, business owners are not the only ones who will find that the new law creates problems for them. “This law threatens to increase the costs of compliance in all corporate structures and the structures of business owners. But it could also affect the middle class, because many members of the middle class have also invested their savings abroad through offshore companies,” said Kuznetsova. According to Russian pro-government media, in 2014, among the leaders in foreign investment in Russia were the ‘big three’ offshore destinations: Cyprus ($2.9 bln), Luxembourg ($1.9 bln), and the British Virgin Islands ($1.05 bln).

Expenditure, welfare payments up 5%, says Finance Minister Finance Minister Haris Georghiades said that welfare payment and public expenditure are up by 5.3% and 5.2%, respectively, in the 2015 State Budget narrowly approved by parliament last week. In his first post-Budget comments, Georghiades said that although satisfied with the vote of approval, which will help in the efforts to reform and revive the economy, he has noted the concerns and objections raised during the two-day debate. “We all agree that our economy continues to face difficulties

and challenges. But let me remind you that we inherited a collapsed economy and today it is recovering. We still have long road ahead and we must also rid ourselves of bad practices and the mentality of the past.” On the criticism that the Budget should have more spending in order to encourage development, the Minister said that “as much as I’d like that a lot, this Budget is limited to the real abilities of the economy. Otherwise, we would have been repeating what had been done in past years, that is the need to raise taxes or the uncontrolled

ESI improves in December Business and consumer sentiment on the rise The monthly Economic Sentiment Indicator compiled by the Economics and Research Centre of the University of Cyprus saw an improvement of 2.1 points to 105.2 compared to the previous month’s survey. The year-earlier Index was at an all-time low of 88.8 points, following the March 2013 decision by the Eurogroup of Eurozone finance ministers to impose a bail-in of deposits and a harsh austerity programme as part of a 10 bln euro bailout. The UCy survey said the ESI had improved in December “due to an improvement in climate of the services sector, the retail sector and manufacturing, as well as (an improvement) among consumers.” The improvement of sentiment in the services sector

arose mainly from an improvement in the current state of businesses and projections for an increase in turnover over the next three months, the UCy survey said. In the retail sector, the business and consumer confidence was “less negative” due to the favourable responses on current and anticipated sales. In manufacturing, the climate improvement derives from the “less negative forecasts” for current orders and optimistic assessment in output over the next three months. The improvement in sentiment among consumers “is the result of expectations of improvement in the economic situation of households in Cyprus over the next 12 months,” the survey added.

rise in public debt which would hamper, not encourage, our development prospects.” He said that the increase in welfare and spending was achieved by reducing the public payroll by 3.2% and debt repayment costs by 12.4%. “Our approach is to create conditions of stability and confidence,” Georghiades said, adding that the aim is to try and soften the burden from the taxes imposed in 2011-2012, repeating earlier comments that “no new taxes will be imposed”.

December 24 - 30 2014

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 5

Renewed growth, but fragile recovery, says EY Forecast With the pace of decline in economic activity slowing in 2014, Ernst & Young (EY) believes that Cyprus remains on track for a return to growth next year. However, the main drivers of the turnaround - tourism and the services sector will only be sufficient to generate modest GDP expansion of around 0.3% in 2015, after a 2.9% contraction in 2014, the advisory firm said in its EY Eurozone Forecast for December. The report said that “although the biggest banks have passed stress tests after successfully raising capital, the sector’s non-performing loans have continued to rise (to over half the total). At the same time, new foreclosure procedures have been delayed in parliament. Bad debts will continue to restrain domestic credit growth and household and smallbusiness spending even after the recession ends.” EY warned that Cyprus’ bailout conditions require continued tightening of fiscal policy in 2015–16, constraining recovery and leaving it largely dependent on exports. “Although cuts in the state wage bill have kept the budget on track for primary surplus in 2016, the tightened capital budget means only a muted return to fixed investment growth in 2015,” it said. With hourly wage costs down by 4.5% on the year (and total hourly costs down by 3.9%) in Q2, the resulting competitiveness gains will help to support an acceleration of export growth in 2015–18, the report said. But a corresponding rebound in imports will prevent any move into current account surplus, meaning a need for continued direct and portfolio investment inflows. “Price deflation at the end of Q3 reflects ongoing constraints on consumer spending, and fear of further falls will hold back investment recovery in 2015. The return of moderate inflation, forecast to average 0.7% in 2015 and climb to 2% by 2018, will promote recovery by reducing real interest rates and gradually lowering the real burden of debt.” The EY ferocast added that “although the impact of Russia’s European Union export ban has been limited, minimal growth in the Russian economy in 2014–15 is likely to hold back the Cypriot economy by delaying the recovery of bank deposit inflows.” Indicating a “cautious return to growth in 2015,” the EY report said that “after three years of recession, the economy is on course to return to growth in 2015, as a revival in export growth leads to a resumption of investment.” It added that although further drops are expected in the next few quarters, growth is forecast to resume by mid-2015, underpinned by this year’s further reduction in the current

account deficit to just 0.3% of GDP, a sharp improvement on the unsustainable double-digit deficit in 2012. It will also feature a return to positive price inflation, after the brush with falling prices during 2014. Public spending will continue to decline in 2015, as the bailout conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU force the government to continue targeting a return to primary budget surplus by 2016. However, the relaxation of budget pressures from 2016 will allow an acceleration of investment growth, lifting it to around 7% by 2018. The growth outlook remains extremely subdued given the severity of the 2008–09 recession, and the brevity of the recovery that followed it before the latest downturn began in 2011. GDP remains well below the pre-crisis level, despite an upward revision under new Eurostat methodology. Moreover, risks to the forecast remain firmly on the downside, the EY report said. On the banking sector, it said that the slow pace of the forecast recovery limits the proportion of bad debts that are likely to come good again in 2015–17, and their persistence will be an obstacle to the resumption of credit growth to nonfinancial businesses. The past two years’ sharp drop in real incomes, which will not be fully reversed by recovery of wage growth in the forecast period, will constrain the rate of recovery in domestic bank deposits even when trust in the system is fully restored. Non-resident deposit growth will be held back in 2014–15 by slow growth in the Russian economy, after its downturn in the first half of this year. The report concluded that the government’s tight fiscal

targets have prevented it from creating a “bad bank” for nonperforming assets or otherwise extending debt relief, leaving the banks to reschedule or write off much of the remaining bad debt without direct assistance. Capital controls imposed after the bailout may have helped stem further outflows of deposits, but only by further testing the patience of the banks’ larger creditors (already hit by the bail-in arrangement that forced them to absorb the rescue cost alongside shareholders). This may make non-resident deposits hard to rebuild to the unusually high level achieved before 2008, EY said.

President to send foreclosures bill back to parliament President Nicos Anastasiades plans to send back to parliament a bill approved by the opposition last Thursday that calls for a suspension of the framework law on foreclosures, until the related bill on insolvencies is also tabled. The vote had infuriated Finance Minister Haris Georghiades who chastised deputies for passing such a law that jeopardised the smooth progress of the economic adjustment programme. Already, the IMF said it was suspending the next tranche of about EUR 86 mln in aid because of the new bill, just after Cyprus had already secured some 350 mln from the European Stability Mechanism. The communist party AKEL had sought a suspension until June, while AKEL, Centre right DIKO, the Citizens’ Alliance and the Greens compromised with the socialist EDEK proposal for a suspension

until the end of January 2015. Non-passage of the framework bill delays efforts by commercial banks to enforce foreclosures on deliberate non-

performing loans, currently representing more than 50% of their loan books, a requirement by the Troika of international lenders for banks to reduce their high-risk

exposure. President Anastasiades told reporters after his first Cabinet meeting on Tuesday that he plans to send back the law to parliament because “it contributes nothing to those we would like to protect given that without the by-laws, the foreclosure law cannot be implemented”. He said that “the suspension of the law was unnecessary” and that “we appeared to meet the conditions set by the Troika and then we appeared to be inconsistent in respect to our commitments and obligations”. The president’s move is likely to lead to a new round of lengthy deliberations between the executive and the legislature over the foreclosures law. The original law was voted in September but remains inactive, as the government has not drafted by-laws for its implementation.

December 24 - 30, 2014

6 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

Crime and punishment in Cyprus By Dr. Jim Leontiades

guilty. The refund of any money obtained illegally should also be required.

Slow Justice Cyprus International Institute of Management A good business environment requires a strong legal and judicial system. The growing number of scandals raise concerns about the effectiveness of justice in Cyprus. Is it possible that in this small, inward looking and interrelated society that no one knew what was going on within the Paphos Municipality? Or that such knowledge was limited to a small group who distributed bags of money among themselves? No one really believes that. A more likely explanation is that we have become so accustomed to such behaviour as part of the expected pattern of life on the island that it occasions neither surprise nor outrage. News of similar investigations appear almost daily. TEPAK university and its exorbitant payments for buildings rented and not used, new buildings paid for but not built. Nicosia tax authorities apparently reducing taxes to whoever they felt deserved it. Here and in the Dromolaxia scandal concerning land purchases by the CYTA pension fund, it is not small operators short of cash that are involved but highly placed public servants who already had high paying jobs . Surely, it is not enough that penalties are awarded to those found

Major transgressions which are addressed quickly in other countries seem to linger on within the Cypriot judicial process for years. The Helios aircraft disaster in Greece occurred in August , 2005. The case was brought to court four years later, after innumerable expense paid trips between Athens and Cyprus of those investigating the incident. The trial lasted three more years before the Cypriot court acquitted the four defendants of all charges (the Greek courts took 5 months to convict and sentence four Helios defendants to ten years in jail). Cypriot justice is swift if someone robs a newsstand or grocery store. In such cases the police and the courts are models of judicial rigour and efficiency. Not so when it comes to events such as the recent financial crisis which has put the entire country in bankruptcy and where the issues involve political figures or those in the upper strata of Cypriot society. Justice here has not only been turtle slow but results have been virtually nil.

Responsibility for the Financial Crisis The search for those responsible for the financial crisis got

off to what seemed like a promising start. The government was quick to appoint a commission headed by three judges to hold an independent, open and fully transparent investigation. After months of probes and public testimony televised for all to see, the commission published its report. The summary of the Commission of inquiry’s report placed the major guilt for the crisis on the previous President of the Republic and the political parties which supported his government. The report was promptly brushed aside to be replaced by a far from transparent, internal government investigation whose results are still to see the light of day. This elicited little comment, possibly because citizens have seen it all before. The findings of the government’s own commission investigating the Mari disaster were similarly dismissed. Here again, an open and transparent investigation which identified political figures was rejected and replaced by an internal government inquiry. Today, the current search for the guilty parties behind the financial crisis continues. The focus is now on bankers. No doubt it is entirely a coincidence that this deflects blame away from the politicians and political parties which the government’s own commission of inquiry found to be the main culprits. The president was right when he described his job of dealing with such scandals as one of cleaning the Augean stables. The Cypriot judicial system should be the Hercules leading the cleanup – but it seems to be more a part of the problem than a part of the solution.

Greece, Russia and Israel: Building strategic bridges with potential enemies By Stavros Malas After the Russian move towards Turkey and the revitalisation of the Greek-Turkish relations, a unique opportunity is emerging for the Cyprus issue to be revisited. Political pressure from the West led Russia to a strategic move towards a large NATO country. By doing so, Russia aims to firmly entangle Turkey with Russian economic interests and convert Turkey to an alternative natural gas gate-keeper for Europe. This is a milestone move with benefits for both countries. In the midst of an economic crisis, Greece established the Council of Strategic Collaboration with Turkey aimed at strengthening economic ties between the two countries. This is, again, a bold move that needs to be evaluated with rationale by all Cypriots. Recently, Israel, a country with an enviable economy and surrounded by opponents, decided to reserve some of its gas for both Egypt and the Palestinian Authority in return for more prosperity and peace. When Israeli energy begins to flow into Arab homes then the resolution of the Palestinian issue will be more feasible.

Russia, Greece and Israel mobilise economic synergies with potential enemies for their common good. Cyprus should do the same with Turkey through a foresighted gas monetisation strategy. Wealth generated from the sale of Cypriot gas is not a sufficiently powerful motive for a solution. Turkey is unpredictable in many ways but one. It is using a multifaceted foreign policy to strengthen its economy and it is succeeding. It grasped a unique opportunity of becoming an energy gate-keeper for the supply of gas originating from Russia, Iran and Kurdistan. The Cyprus issue, however, stands in the way for Turkey to gain access to gas supplied from the eastern Mediterranean. By opting for tighter economic links with Russia, Turkey has essentially chosen only a special relationship status and not full membership with the EU as full membership limits her freedom for strategic political maneuvering. The Cyprus issue also stands in the way of even a special relationship deal with the EU. In the light of recent developments, the export of Cypriot gas after a solution though Turkey, is the right choice for Cyprus. The Russian move towards Turkey highly facilitates such a move. Through a joint Cypriot-Israeli deal, the interests of Turkey should be taken on board. Such a move will augment the diplomatic standing of Cyprus and amplify the political and economic benefit. Cyprus should facilitate, not hinder, the accession process of Turkey, even if a special relationship status for Turkey is at stake.

Such moves add weight to the sovereignty and stature of the Cypriot state. An esoteric approach is neither in the interest of either a viable solution nor of the future economic planning for recovery of the island’s economy. Political and diplomatic orphanage on the energy planning is not a choice for Cyprus. Developments will move fast and will leave Cypriots behind. Through a stalemate, Cypriots will pay the price of a nonsolution (and probably non-monetisation of gas), while Turkey will continue to capitalise both economically and politically. On the contrary, a proactive and constructive diplomacy, though a visionary energy strategy, will prove to be beneficial both politically (viable solution) and economically (faster economic recovery). Such a move by Cyprus will put pressure on Turkey whose immediate goal is to cause tension in order to hinder the monetisation of Cypriot gas. Given the history of the region, the existence of suspicion and in some cases the preponderance of extreme nationalists views in all states, natural energy resources may not prove conducive to a settlement but may bring exactly the opposite result unless a preemptive and more conciliatory strategy is adopted. Greece, Russia and Israel have followed an energy strategy that serves their long-term interests and is based on logic rather than sentiments. Dr Stavros Malas is a former Minister of Health of Cyprus

Gov’t aims to boost cash reserves from €2 200m to €5 500m The government wants to build up its cash reserves from EUR 200 mln at present to about 500 mln by the end of next year, representing half the amount it intends to hold in liquid assets and to reduce the risk factor related to foreign borrowing. In a confidential report to parliament, the Ministry of Finance said its strategy for medium term management of public debt, estimated at EUR 18.5 bln, should start to

decline due to the improved public finances, but that risks will remain even after the conclusion in March 2016 of the economic adjustment programme agreed with the Troika of international lenders. According to the document, the biggest risk is that 40% of debt, or about EUR 7.5 bln, matures over the next six years. The aim is for short term debt (up to 12 months) to represent EUR 750 mln or 5% of the total, while long term debt (more

than a year) to be managed so that maturities in 2015 to reach EUR 1.3 bln, between 2016 and 2018 a further 1.75 bln and from 2019 onwards 2.2 bln. Other risks include the EUR 3 bln in guarantees given by the government to various public entities as well as the adjustment programme itself. The report also points to risks related to raising EUR 500 mln from privatisations within the next two years as included in

the programme, due to potential reactions by stakeholders. The first of the public utilities to be privatised is the Cyprus Ports Authority, with the process expected to get underway by the end of 2015, the same timeframe announced for the selection of an advisor for the privatisation of the telecoms giant Cyta. In all, the government aims to raise EUR 1.4 bln from privatisations and sale of stateowned assets by the end of 2018.

December 24 - 30, 2014

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7

Is the ECB doing enough? If the eco nomy needs further stimulus, the ECB might extend outright asset purchases to other asset classes, says chief economist By Peter Praet Konrad Adenauer, Germany’s first chancellor after World War II, famously said: “Why should I care about the things I said yesterday?” What he meant was that events can sometimes unfold at a speed that outpaces our ability to understand them. So, as 2014 winds down, it is worth asking ourselves, with the benefit of hindsight: Have we at the European Central Bank reacted swiftly enough to maintain price stability in the face of threats, as our mandate requires? I think the answer is yes. We noticed that our monetary policy was no longer having the effect on private borrowing costs to which we were accustomed. It was obvious that the lending channels in the banking system had become dysfunctional; excessively restrictive borrowing conditions were suppressing demand. In response, the ECB did precisely what any central bank would have done: we acted to restore the relationship between our monetary policy and the cost of borrowing, aiming to bring down the average rate that households and firms have to pay. In June, we introduced a series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (known as TLTROs) to provide funding for banks at very low fixed rates for a period of up to four years. The TLTROs were designed to maximise the chances that banks would pass on the funding relief to borrowers. Our programmes to purchase asset-backed securities and covered bonds were tailored to help lubricate further the transmission of

lower funding costs from banks to customers. Together, these measures offer a powerful response that addresses the root causes of impaired bank lending, thereby facilitating new credit flows to the real economy. And tentative evidence suggests that they are delivering some initial tangible benefits to the euro area’s economy. At the same time, inflation has continued trending down. In November, annual inflation in the euro area fell to a cyclical low of 0.3%, largely owing to the sharp fall in oil prices since the end of the summer. But falling core inflation (which excludes volatile energy and food prices) also points to weak aggregate demand. And, indeed, the ECB’s latest staff projections entail a notable downgrading of the macroeconomic outlook. Falling oil prices and the prospect of a prolonged period of low inflation also seem to have affected inflation expectations. Given the potency of the recent oil-price shock, the risk is that inflation may temporarily slip into negative territory in the coming months. Normally, any central bank would welcome a positive supply shock. After all, lower oil prices boost real incomes and may lead to higher output in the future. But we may not be able to celebrate. After all, because wellanchored inflation expectations are indispensable for medium-term price stability, monetary policy must respond to a risk of de-anchoring. That is why the ECB Governing Council has reiterated its unanimous commitment to use additional unconventional instruments within its mandate should it need to address a prolonged period of low inflation, or should monetary stimulus fail to move our balance sheet toward its size in early 2012. This would imply altering the scope, pace, and composition of our measures early next year,

and staff from the ECB and national central banks have stepped up technical preparations, so that further measures, if needed, can be implemented in a timely manner. If we were to judge that the economy is in need of further stimulus, one option could be to extend the ECB’s outright asset purchases to other asset classes. But it is important to remember that asset purchases are not an end in themselves. They are an instrument, not a target, of monetary policy. An important criterion for the choice of additional measures should be the extent of their influence over broad financing conditions in the private economy. For example, purchases of bonds issued by euroarea non-financial corporations (NFCs) would probably have some direct passthrough effect on firms’ financing costs. But, compared to other asset classes, the market for NFC bonds is relatively thin. It would be a different matter if we were to decide to buy bonds issued by euro-area sovereigns – the only market where size would generally not be an issue. Interventions in this market would likely entail a stronger signal that the ECB is committed to maintaining an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period of time. The effectiveness of interventions in the

sovereign-bond market – that is, their ability to lower the borrowing costs of households and firms further – will also rest on the state of the banking sector. Higher capital ratios, lower exposure to bad loans, and more transparent balance sheets increase the chances that the ECB’s quantitative impulses will be transmitted to the wider economy. That is why the completion of the ECB’s comprehensive assessment of banks’ balance sheets and the start of Europe-wide banking supervision will help revitalise sluggish lending in the euro area. In particular, increased clarity and transparency about banks’ balance sheets, together with a bettercapitalised banking sector, will create a more supportive lending environment. But a decision to purchase sovereign bonds would also need to build on and factor in the institutional specificities of the euro area, including the limits set by the EU Treaty. We take these limits very seriously. The year ahead will be challenging and rife with uncertainty. But if the past holds any lesson, it is that, if our ability to fulfill our mandate is at risk, we will not hesitate to act. Peter Praet is Chief Economist of the European Central Bank and a member of its executive board. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

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December 24 - 30, 2014

8 | TECHNOLOGY | financialmirror.com

Cloud picking up in Cyprus and Greece SAP sees double growth rates in emerging markets With the IT cloud services segment in the emerging markets expected to grow at nearly double the rate of the developed economies over the next few years, Cyprus and Greece, too, are seen as experiencing newfound growth, but not until well into 2016. In an interview with the Financial Mirror, Hans-Peter Fuelle, Vice President and Head of Cloud and LoB SAP South Europe acknowledged that in times of crisis, there is an initial cost that some companies cannot afford to move to cloud, but there are also funds available. “There are significant funds form the EU, structural and investment funds, that support SMEs in their information and communication technology (ICT) investments,” Fuelle said, explaining that Greece and Cyprus have used significant funds to support local SME with their digitisation. “However, a challenge remains where the EU does not wish to fund ‘operational costs’, and cloud is of course shifting the infrastructure investment into service payments. Therefore the EU rules partly hold SMEs back from fully moving to the cloud. This is something which we hope the EU will address in the coming months.” Fuelle said that the use of cloud solutions is still pretty much in its infancy in Cyprus, so there are no clear market segmentation trends appearing yet.

“However, early indications suggest that Cyprus mid-sized SMEs seem to be the first to engage with cloud solutions for peripheral systems which is an interesting phenomenon. Other industries, like banking, are still pretty reserved on the issue compared to banks across the EU which have adopted considerable cloud solutions to address various line of business challenges. Nevertheless, we expect a significant market adoption in Cyprus over the next 18 months.” “Across Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), we do not see any real trends in specific industries or size of organisation adopting cloud more quickly than others,” Fuelle said, adding that the repeated pattern is of companies looking to extend their existing technology investments with cloud applications and infrastructure to enable new processes and unlock new insights or reach new markets that are not possible or efficient at scale in on-premise environments.” According to a study carried out by analyst firm IDC in 2013, the United States will remain the largest public IT cloud services market, although its share will decline from 56.9% in 2013 to 43.9% in 2017, while Western Europe, Latin America, and Asia/Pacific will each gain share throughout the forecast. Cloud spending in emerging markets is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.3% for the 2013-2017 period, a rate almost

twice that of developed markets. “In line with this forecast, we are certainly seeing a huge appetite (and update) from our customers across Europe for SAP’s Cloud solutions,” Fuelle said. As of Q3 2014, SAP is the fastest growing enterprise cloud company at scale with 41% growth – beating both Oracle and Salesforce, he said. SAP’s annual cloud run rate exceeds EUR 1.3 bln ($1.7 bln), with more than 44 mln cloud users on the market’s leading public cloud application portfolio, while SAP Jam is the leading social business platform with over 15 mln users. “The benefits of the cloud are attractive to companies of all sizes. Companies are increasingly looking to invest in the cloud as their innovation platform – as a way to enable new processes and achieve new insights that enable them to run their business in an entirely new way – not just do the same old things using a different delivery model,” Fuelle explained. “SAP has all the right assets to enable this. Our cloud portfolio is the most comprehensive in the industry, covering all lines of business across industries for businesses both large and small.” “But perhaps most important, SAP recognises that the cloud is not an either-or proposition or one size fits all. Our solutions

are designed to help our customers start anywhere and go everywhere, depending on their business needs,” he said. In terms of average savings this is impossible to answer, Fuelle said. “The most common misconception that we hear is that ‘Cloud is all about IT’ and ‘Total Cost of Ownership’. The reality is that cloud is far more than this. It is about driving new levels of process efficiency, collaboration, and insight. And, while it certainly offers a cost advantage, the real benefit of cloud comes in two flavours: innovation and agility, to quickly adapt processes to capitalise on changing market dynamics and stay ahead of the competition.”

Closing India’s technology gap It is a notable irony that India, which produces solutions to many of the knottiest information-technology problems faced by the world’s largest companies, has benefited little from technological progress. Fortunately for India’s citizens, Prime Minister Narendra Modi intends to change that.

By Raghunath A. Mashelkar and Anu Madgavkar

The gap between India and its emerging Asian counterpart China is significant. Whereas China has created the world’s largest online bazaar and become a global leader in renewable energy, India has just begun to explore the potential of ecommerce; IT remains beyond the scope of millions of small and medium-size enterprises; and most citizens remain cut off from the digital economy. To bring India up to speed, Modi’s government announced in August a national digital initiative: 1.13 trln rupees ($19 bln) in investment to bring broadband communications to 250,000 villages, provide universal mobile access, expand online government services, and enable online delivery of all sorts of basic services. Needless to say, this will do much to advance India’s e-government ambitions. Technology trends are helping Modi’s cause. The rapid decline in costs and increase in performance capabilities of a range of digital technologies – including mobile Internet, cloud computing, and expert systems – make large-scale adoption a distinct possibility in the coming decade, even in relatively poor India. These digital technologies – together with advances in genomics (supporting agricultural and medical innovation) and unconventional energy (wind, solar, and shale oil and gas) – will enable financial inclusion for hundreds of millions of Indians and potentially redefine how services like education, food allocation, and health care are delivered. Research by the McKinsey Global Institute indicates that, by 2025, these factors are likely to contribute at least $550 bln – and as much as $1 trln – to India’s annual income. The gains would be distributed among a variety of sectors, even some that currently have low levels of technology

adoption. Existing applications in agriculture, health care, education, and infrastructure can collectively contribute $160280 bln to annual GDP – and, more important, empower ordinary Indians. Indeed, educational innovations – such as adaptive learning and remote teaching – could enable some 24 mln workers to receive more years of education and find higher-paying employment. Mobile financial services will give 300 mln Indians access to the financial system, allowing them to build credit. And precision agriculture – using geographic information systems and data to guide planting, watering, and other activities – can help 90 mln farmers increase their output and reduce post-harvest losses, with access to timely market data bolstering their incomes. Moreover, some 400 mln Indians in poor rural areas can gain access to better health care in field clinics, where health workers can diagnose and treat some ailments using low-cost diagnostic tools, expert software, and online links to physicians. Finally, by digitising government services, such as fooddistribution programmes for the poor, India could eliminate the leakage that diverts, according to our estimates, half of the food from intended recipients. For India to derive the full potential of these technologies, it will need to dismantle barriers to adoption. McKinsey’s Internet

Barriers Index for 25 countries classifies India as part of a cluster (along with Egypt, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines) characterised by medium-to-high barriers in four key areas: infrastructure, affordability, incentives, and capability. Even with low prices for devices and data plans relative to the rest of the world, Internet access in India remains beyond the grasp of close to a billion people. Furthermore, network coverage and the adjacent infrastructure remain inadequate, particularly in rural areas. And, though 48% of urban Indians are computer literate, only 14% of rural Indians are able to use a computer efficiently. Indian policymakers should be working with the country’s tech industry and other private-sector actors to implement measures that would enable technology adoption. These include ensuring ongoing investment in broadband backbone networks, establishing inter-operability standards, and creating a supportive environment for low-cost devices. In order to spur growth in online-services delivery, the authorities must also address broader challenges to entrepreneurship, such as India’s cumbersome procedures for starting new businesses. Moreover, as the experience of India’s mobile telephony sector clearly demonstrates, scaling up for massive impact requires more than start-up innovation; it also demands a regulatory environment characterised by a liberal approach to pricing, manufacturing, and distribution. Sustaining the benefits of technological adoption and innovation will require continued investment and adjustment to compensate for its disruptive effects. For example, the automation of knowledge work – the software and systems that are increasingly capable of performing human tasks that require judgment – could affect 19-29 mln jobs by 2025. Technology can help create new – perhaps better – jobs to replace those that are lost, but only if India’s education and training systems prepare workers adequately. With thoughtful planning, productive collaboration between public and private institutions, and capable execution, India’s government can clear the way for technological progress. The social and economic benefits of a successful strategy cannot be overstated. Raghunath A. Mashelkar is President of the Global Research Alliance and Chairperson of India’s National Innovation Foundation. Anu Madgavkar is a senior fellow with the McKinsey Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A AÚ. 996

www.financialmirror.com

∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 24 ¢∂∫∂ªµƒπ√À, 2014

∂·Ó·Î·ıÔÚÈÛÌfi ÔÏÈÙÈÎÒÓ ÂÍ‹ÁÁÂÈÏÂ Ô ¡›ÎÔ˜ ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜ Aυτοκριτική τησ µέχρι σήµερα πορείασ τησ διακυβέρνησησ του έκανε χθεσ ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, µετά την περιπέτεια µε την υγεία του. Ο πρÞεδροσ Αναστασιάδησ, σηµείωσε πωσ θα πρέπει να επανακαθοριστούν πολιτικέσ και να ενισχυθεί η προσπάθεια για υλοποίηση των τεσσάρων πυλώνων επί των οποίων εδράζεται το πρÞγραµµα διακυβέρνησησ. Οι τέσσερισ πυλώνεσ σύµφωνα µε τον πρÞεδρο αφορούν στον περαιτέρω εξορθολογισµÞ τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ και στην οριστική επιστροφή στην ανάπτυξη και στην ευηµερία. Σύµφωνα µε τον πρÞεδρο, ο δεύτεροσ πυλώνασ είναι η συνέχιση του εκσυγχρονισµού του κράτουσ, µέσω σειράσ ήδη δροµολογούµενων συγκεκριµένων µεταρρυθµίσεων καθώσ και η συνέχιση τησ µηδενικήσ ανοχήσ και τησ πάταξησ τησ διαφθοράσ και τον οριστικÞ τερµατισµÞ τησ ατιµωρησίασ. Kατά τον πρÞεδρο ο τέταρτοσ πυλώνασ είναι η µεγάλη προσπάθεια που πρέπει να καταβληθεί για επίλυση του κυπριακού προβλήµατοσ µέσω συλλογικήσ διαχείρισησ, Þπωσ τελευταίωσ τουλάχιστον γίνεται µε τη συνδροµή και των πολιτικών αρχηγών. Ùπωσ τÞνισε ο ΠρÞεδροσ έχει ετοιµαστεί ολοκληρωµένο σχέδιο µιασ νέασ δοµήσ και λειτουργίασ τησ προεδρίασ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ κατά τα πρÞτυπα γραφείων αρχηγών κρατών και κυβερνήσεων ανεπτυγµένων χωρών. Ο κ. Αναστασιάδησ, υπογράµµισε πωσ το σχέδιο θα ανακοινωθεί αµέσωσ µετά τισ εορτέσ. Την ίδια ώρα έκανε για άλλη µια φορά άνοιγµα στισ πολιτικέσ δυνάµεισ για να αντιµετωπίσουν απÞ κοινού τισ πολλαπλέσ προκλήσεισ των επÞµενων τριών χρÞνων. Κληθείσ να σχολιάσει αν αλλάζει κάτι σε σχέση µε τουσ σχεδιασµούσ στον ενεργειακÞ τοµέα και σε σχέση µε το χερσαίο τερµατικÞ υγροποίησησ, µετά και τα αποτελέσµατα τησ ερευνητικήσ γεώτρησησ στο δυνητικÞ κοίτασµα «ΟνασαγÞρασ» στο τεµάχιο 9, ο πρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ είπε πωσ το τερµατικÞ παραµένει ωσ απÞφαση, αλλά υπÞ προϋποθέσεισ. Ο Νίκοσ Αναστασιάδησ µε την επιστροφή του στο προεδρικÞ προήδρευσε του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου το οποίο προχώρησε στην έγκριση ενÞσ εκ των τριών νοµοσχεδίων για την αφερεγγυÞτητα. Το νοµοσχέδιο το οποίο εκσυγχρονίζει το υφιστάµενο νοµικÞ πλαίσιο και επιταχύνει τη διαδικασία εκκαθάρισησ εταιρειών, θα προωθηθεί άµεσα στη βουλή. Τα άλλα δύο νοµοσχέδια, σύµφωνα µε τον πρÞεδρο τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ θα ετοιµασθούν το ένα περί τα τέλη ∆εκεµβρίου και το άλλο αρχέσ Ιανουαρίου. Ωσ γνωστÞ στη βουλή εκκρεµούν άλλα δύο νοµοσχέδια που διέπουν το πλαίσιο αφερεγγυÞτητασ, το πρώτο αφορά στην τροποποίηση του νÞµου περί εταιρειών για το οποίο η νοµική υπηρεσία εκφράζει επιφυλάξεισ επί συγκεκριµένων

διατάξεων του νοµοσχεδίου οι οποίεσ προσκρούουν στο Σύνταγµα. Με την τροποποίηση του νÞµου περί εταιρειών, θεσµοθετείται µηχανισµÞσ αφερεγγυÞτητασ που προβλέπει στην αναδιάρθρωση του χρέουσ και στην αποκατάσταση τησ επιχειρηµατικήσ δραστηριÞτητασ µε σκοπÞ τη διατήρηση βιώσιµων επιχειρήσεων. Στη βουλή εκκρεµεί και το νοµοσχέδιο για τουσ συµβούλουσ αφερεγγυÞτητασ.

Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί πωσ η βουλή αποφάσισε να οδηγήσει τα δύο νοµοσχέδια που εκκρεµούν στο κοινοβούλιο αρχέσ του νέου έτουσ, µε στÞχο να οδηγηθούν και τα πέντε νοµοσχέδια ωσ πακέτο. Τέλοσ ο πρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ προήγγειλε και έξοδο και πάλι στισ αγορέσ εντÞσ του 2015 απαντώντασ στισ επικρίσεισ τησ αντιπολίτευσησ για απουσία αναπτυξιακών έργων απÞ προϋπολογισµÞ.

∞Ó·ÔÌ‹ ÙÔ˘ ÓfiÌÔ˘ ÁÈ· ÂÎÔÈ‹ÛÂÈ˜ ∆ËÓ ÚfiıÂÛË ÙÔ˘ Ó· ·Ó·¤Ì„ÂÈ ÙÔ ÓfiÌÔ ÙˆÓ ÂÎÔÈ‹ÛÂˆÓ ÙÔÓ ÔÔ›Ô „‹ÊÈÛÂ ÙËÓ ÂÚ·ÛÌ¤ÓË ¶¤ÌÙË Ë µÔ˘Ï‹ ÂÍ¤ÊÚ·ÛÂ Ô ÚfiÂ‰ÚÔ˜ ÙË˜ ¢ËÌÔÎÚ·Ù›·˜ ¡›ÎÔ˜ ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜. ™‡ÌÊˆÓ· ÌÂ ÙÔÓ ÚfiÂ‰ÚÔ, «‹Ù·Ó ·¯ÚÂ›·ÛÙË Ë ·Ó·ÛÙÔÏ‹ ÙÔ˘ ÓfiÌÔ˘», ÚÔÛı¤ÙÔÓÙ·˜ ˆ˜ «·˘Ùfi Ô˘ ÌÂ ··Û¯ÔÏÂ› Â›Ó·È fiÙÈ ÂÌÊ·ÓÈÛÙ‹Î·ÌÂ ·ÓÙ·ÔÎÚÈÓfiÌÂÓÔÈ ÛÙÈ˜ ÚÔ¸Ôı¤ÛÂÈ˜ Ô˘ ¤ıÂÛÂ Ë ÙÚfiÈÎ· ÚÔÎÂ›ÌÂÓÔ˘ Ó· ·ÓÙÏ‹ÛÔ˘ÌÂ Ù· fiÛ· Â›¯·ÌÂ ÛÙË ‰È¿ıÂÛË Ì·˜ Î·È ÂÌÊ·ÓÈÛÙ‹Î·ÌÂ ÌÂ ÌÈ· ·Ú·‰ÔÍfiÙËÙ· Ô˘ Ì·˜ ÂÌÊ·Ó›˙ÂÈ ·ÛÂ‚Â›˜ ÌÂ ÙÈ˜ ‰ÂÛÌÂ‡ÛÂÈ˜ Î·È ÙÈ˜ ˘Ô¯ÚÂÒÛÂÈ˜ Ô˘ Â›¯·ÌÂ ·Ó·Ï¿‚ÂÈ». ∂Í¤ÊÚ·ÛÂ ÙËÓ ÂÔ›ıËÛË ˆ˜ ı· ÍÂÂÚ·ÛÙÂ› ÙÔ Úfi‚ÏËÌ·, ÂÈÛËÌ·›ÓÔÓÙ·˜ ˆ˜ ı· Â›Ó·È ¤Ó· ·fi Ù· ı¤Ì·Ù· Ô˘ ı· ··Û¯ÔÏ‹ÛÂÈ ÙË Û‡ÛÎÂ„Ë ÌÂ ÙÔ˘˜ ·Ú¯ËÁÔ‡˜ ÙˆÓ ÎÔÌÌ¿ÙˆÓ.

¢Â‡ÙÂÚË ·ÔÙ˘¯›· ÁÈ· ÙÔÓ ™·Ì·Ú¿ ¶ÚÔ˜ ÔÏÔÙ·¯Ò˜ ÁÈ· ÂÎÏÔÁ¤˜ Ë ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Η πρÞσκληση που απηύθυνε ο ΠρωθυπουργÞσ τησ Ελλάδασ, Αντώνησ Σαµαράσ την προηγούµενη Κυριακή δεν βρήκε ανταπÞκριση απÞ την πλειοψηφία των βουλευτών τησ αντιπολίτευσησ, έτσι Þπωσ καταγράφηκε και στην δεύτερη ψηφοφορία για την εκλογή του Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ. ∆ιεθνή πρακτορεία κάνουν λÞγο για αποτυχία του πρωθυπουργού να δελεάσει τουσ βουλευτέσ και να αποσοβήσει τισ πρÞωρεσ εκλογέσ. Η δεύτερη ψηφοφορία που απαιτούσε 200 ψήφουσ για την εκλογή Προέδρου, δεν απέδωσε καρπούσ, Þπωσ αναµενÞταν, και πλέον Þλα τα βλέµµατα στρέφονται στην τρίτη ψηφοφορία τησ 29ησ ∆εκεµβρίου. Το Bloomberg σε άρθρο του αναφέρει πωσ «Η πιθανÞτητα των πρÞωρων εκλογών προκάλεσε αναταραχή στισ αγορέσ, φέρνοντασ στο µυαλÞ Þλων την οικονοµική κρίση του 2012, Þταν η Ελλάδα βρέθηκε στα πρÞθυρα τησ χρεοκοπίασ».

Σε άλλο άρθρο του το Bloomberg κάνει λÞγο για «ελληνικÞ δράµα που προκαλεί αρνητικέσ επιπτώσεισ στισ αγορέσ και κάνει πιο άµεση την παρέµβαση τησ ΕΚΤ. «Ο κυρίαρχοσ φÞνοσ αυτή τη στιγµή είναι Þτι επιστρέφουµε στο σηµείο που βρισκÞµασταν πριν απÞ δύο χρÞνια, µε τον κίνδυνο των πολιτικών εξελίξεων να µπαίνουν ξανά στο κάδρο. Μπορεί η Ελλάδα να µην είναι το µεγάλο µασ θέµα, αλλά σίγουρα είναι ο καταλύτησ των εξελίξεων. Είναι η κορυφή του παγÞβουνου», αναφέρει ο χρηµατιστήσ Ζιλ Γκιµπού. Αξιοσηµείωτη είναι και η άποψη του Μακ Μπρέιερ τησ Capital Markets Corp., µε έδρα τη Ν. ΥÞρκη: «Εάν το ελληνικÞ χρηµατιστήριο τιµωρηθεί αρκετά, τÞτε ο Σαµαράσ θα µπορέσει να εκλέξει τον υποψήφιÞ του στον τρίτο γύρο. Αν συµβεί αυτÞ, τÞτε τα καταστροφικά σενάρια που εκτίθενται αυτέσ τισ ηµέρεσ, δεν θα πάρουν σάρκα και οστά».

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

ÕÓÙÏËÛË €36,6 ÂÎ. ·fi 6ÂÙ‹ ÔÌfiÏÔÁ· Υπερκαλύφθηκε η 1η σειρά εξαετών οµολÞγων για το 2015 για την οποία υπήρξαν αιτήσεισ 36,6 εκ. ευρώ, ωσ επί το πλείστον απÞ ξένουσ επενδυτέσ, σύµφωνα µε ανακοίνωση του ΥΠΟΙΚ. Ùπωσ ανακοίνωσε το γραφείο διαχείρισησ δηµÞσιου χρέουσ του υπουργείου οικονοµικών, τερµατίστηκε στισ 19 ∆εκεµβρίου η περίοδοσ λήψησ αιτήσεων για αγορά εξαετών οµολÞγων τησ κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ για φυσικά πρÞσωπα, τησ πρώτησ σειράσ 2015 µε ηµεροµηνία έκδοσησ τουσ τισ 2 Ιανουαρίου 2015.

Λήφθηκαν 49 αιτήσεισ για συνολικÞ ποσÞ 36 εκ. ευρώ. ΑπÞ αυτέσ, οι 35 υποβλήθηκαν απÞ κύπριουσ και οι 14 απÞ αλλοδαπούσ επενδυτέσ. Οι αξίεσ των αιτήσεων κυµαίνονταν απÞ 10,000 µέχρι 2,5 εκ. ευρώ. Με βάση τον Þρο 1, των ειδικών Þρων έκδοσησ, ο προϊστάµενοσ του γραφείου διαχείρισησ δηµÞσιου χρέουσ έχει αποδεχθεί ολÞκληρο το ποσÞ υπερκάλυψησ. Για τη λήψη αυτήσ τησ απÞφασησ έχουν ληφθεί υπÞψη, µεταξύ άλλων, τα ακÞλουθα:

(α) Η αποδοχή ολÞκληρου του ποσού υπερκάλυψησ δεν επηρεάζει τισ υπÞλοιπεσ αγορέσ κυβερνητικών τίτλων. (β) Το µεγαλύτερο µέροσ των προσφορών προέρχεται απÞ ξένουσ επενδυτέσ. Η 2η σειρά 2015 λήξησ 2021 εξαετών οµολÞγων τησ κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, επίσησ µε ανώτατο Þριο έκδοσησ 10 εκ. ευρώ, θα εκδοθεί στισ 2 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 και η περίοδοσ κατάθεσησ των αιτήσεων θα είναι απÞ τισ 2 µέχρι τισ 20 Ιανουαρίου 2015.

¡¤Ô˜ ÌÂÁ·ÏÔÌ¤ÙÔ¯Ô˜ ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏËÓÈÎ‹ Την παραίτηση των διοικητικών συµβούλων, Γιάννου Χαριλάου και Βάσου ΚωµοδρÞµου ανακοίνωσε η Ελληνική Τράπεζα, µετά την ολοκλήρωση τησ έκδοσησ κεφαλαίου, που οδήγησε στη µείωση του ποσοστού που κατέχει η εκκλησία και στην ανάδειξη ενÞσ νέου µεγαλοµετÞχου πέραν των τριών γνωστών, τησ Senvest. Πλέον το ποσοστÞ τησ εκκλησίασ στον Þµιλο, που για δεκαετίεσ ήταν µεγαλοµέτοχοσ τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, µει-

ώθηκε σηµαντικά µετά την πρÞσφατη έκδοση κεφαλαίου. Η εκκλησία διατηρεί σήµερα ένα ποσοστÞ 3,58%. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε ανακοίνωση τησ τράπεζασ η παραιτήσεισ των δύο µελών έχουν άµεση ισχύ. Να σηµειωθεί πωσ µετά την πρÞσφατη έκδοση κεφαλαίου προέκυψαν, πέραν των τριών γνωστών µετÞχων και άλλοι µεγαλοµέτοχοι. Με ποσοστÞ πέραν του 5% βρέθηκε και η Senvest. Συγκεκριµένα µετά την άσκηση δικαιωµάτων προτίµησησ

και του δικαιώµατοσ προεγγραφήσ, οι µέτοχοι που κατέχουν πέραν του 5% του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ είναι οι ακÞλουθοι: CPΒ FBO Third Point Hellenic Recovery Fund LP µε ποσοστÞ 26,98%, Wargaming Public Company Ltd µε 26,46%, ∆ήµητρα Επενδυτική ∆ηµÞσια Λτδ µε ποσοστÞ 10,69% και Senvest International LLC και Senvest Master Fund LP µε ποσοστÞ 5,03%».

ŒÓ·ÚÍË ÂÚÁ·ÛÈÒÓ ÛÙËÓ ÚÔ‚Ï‹Ù· ÙË˜ VTTV ÛÙÔ µ·ÛÈÏÈÎfi Η VTS Vasiliko Terminal Services Ltd (VTS) ανακοίνωσε την έναρξη εργασιών στην προβλήτα του τερµατικού αποθήκευσησ πετρελαιοειδών τησ VTT Vasiliko Ltd (VTTV). Στο πλαίσιο άδειασ που παραχωρήθηκε απÞ την Αρχή Λιµένων Κύπρου (ΑΛΚ) - µε βάση την οποία η ΑΛΚ λαµβάνει δικαιώµατα - η VTS θα παρέχει ναυτιλιακέσ υπηρεσίεσ στο ΤερµατικÞ, περιλαµβανοµένων των υπηρεσιών πλοήγησησ, παραβολήσ, πρÞσδεσησ λέµβου, χρήσησ ρυµουλκού και παροχήσ ευκολιών υποδοχήσ. Το πρώτο δεξαµενÞπλοιο αφίχθη στην προβλήτα τησ VTTV το Σάββατο 29 Νοεµβρίου, παραδίδοντασ πετρέλαιο εσωτερικήσ καύσησ στο ΤερµατικÞ. Στο πλαίσιο τησ επιχείρησησ, η VTS παρείχε υπηρεσίεσ ρυµούλκησησ, πρÞσδεσησ και απÞδεσησ µέσω των δυο νέων ρυµουλκών τησ - τύπου ADS - εν ονÞµατι VTS ΚΕΡΥΝΕΙΑ και VTS ΑΜΜΟΧΩΣΤΟΣ. Άλλο ένα σηµαντικÞ ορÞσηµο επιτεύχθηκε την Τετάρτη 17 ∆εκεµβρίου, Þταν τέσσερα δεξαµενÞπλοια προσδέθηκαν για πρώτη φορά στην αποβάθρα. Τα ρυµουλκά είναι µοναδικά στην Κύπρο και την ευρύτερη περιοχή, και αποτελούν σηµαντική επένδυση ύψουσ 15 εκ. ευρώ.Τα δυο ρυµουλκά λειτουργούν υπÞ κυπριακή σηµαία και επανδρώνονται απÞ πλήρωµα και χειριστέσ απÞ την Κύπρο και την Ελλάδα. Η πρώτη επιχείρηση παρακολουθήθηκε απÞ έµπειρουσ κυβερνήτεσ ρυµουλκών και πλοηγούσ απÞ την Ολλανδία, οι οποίοι επαίνεσαν τη VTS για την άψογη εκτέλεση τησ επιχείρησησ.

¢È·ÁÚ¿ÊÔÓÙ·È ÔÈ ÌÂÙÔ¯¤˜ ÙˆÓ ∫∞ ·fi ÙÔ Ã∞∫ Στη διαγραφή των µετοχών των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών προχώρησε το ΧΑΚ καθώσ, Þπωσ τονίζεται σε ανακοίνωση του, έχουν εκλείψει οι προϋποθέσεισ οµαλήσ λειτουργίασ τησ χρηµατιστηριακήσ αγοράσ επί των τίτλων τησ εταιρείασ και δεν τηρούνται σηµαντικέσ συνεχείσ υποχρεώσεισ τησ έτσι ώστε να τίθενται σε κίνδυνο τα συµφέροντα των επενδυτών. Το ΧΑΚ σηµειώνει Þτι για εφαρµογή τησ απÞφασησ έλαβε απÞ προηγουµένωσ και την έγκριση τησ επιτροπήσ κεφαλαιαγοράσ. Ùπωσ σηµειώνεται οι ΚΑ δεν έχουν τηρήσει την υποχρέωση τουσ για υποβολή και δηµοσιοποίηση:

(α) τησ Ετήσιασ Οικονοµικήσ Έκθεσησ για το έτοσ που έληξε στισ 31/12/2012, (β) τησ Εξαµηνιαίασ Οικονοµικήσ Έκθεσησ για την περίοδο που έληξε στισ 30/6/2013, (γ) τησ Ένδειξησ Αποτελέσµατοσ για το έτοσ 2013, (δ) τησ Ετήσιασ Οικονοµικήσ Έκθεσησ για το έτοσ που έληξε στισ 31/12/2013, (ε) τησ Εξαµηνιαίασ Οικονοµικήσ Έκθεσησ για την περίοδο που έληξε στισ 30/6/2014. Σηµειώνεται Þτι η διαγραφή των αξιών τησ πιο πάνω εταιρείασ απÞ το χρηµατιστήριο θα ισχύει απÞ τισ 13 Ιανουαρίου 2015. Την ίδια ώρα οι Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ διαβεβαιώνουν

το κοινÞ Þτι η εταιρεία συνεχίζει κανονικά τη λειτουργία τησ. Με αφορµή πρÞσφατα δηµοσιεύµατα για το µέλλον του κρατικού αεροµεταφορέα, η εταιρεία εξέδωσε ανακοίνωση, σύµφωνα µε την οποία ο πρÞεδροσ και τα µέλη του διοικητικού συµβουλίου εργάζονται εντατικά για την ολοκλήρωση του Σχεδίου Αναδιάρθρωσησ των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών και προχωρούν στη λήψη επιπρÞσθετων µέτρων εξυγίανσησ τησ εταιρείασ. Στην ανακοίνωση σηµειώνεται Þτι µέληµα τησ εταιρείασ παραµένει η καλύτερη εξυπηρέτηση των πελατών, προσφέροντασ µε αξιοπιστία ποιοτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ.

¡¤Ô ¯·ÚÙÔÓfiÌÈÛÌ· ÙˆÓ 20 Â˘ÚÒ Στισ 24 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 θα παρουσιάσει επισήµωσ το Ευρωσύστηµα το νέο τραπεζογραµµάτιο των 20 ευρώ τησ σειράσ «Ευρώπη», στο οποίο έχουν ενσωµατωθεί βελτιωµένα χαρακτηριστικά ασφαλείασ, Þπωσ ανακοίνωσε η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα (ΕΚΤ). Το νέο τραπεζογραµµάτιο των 20 ευρώ είναι το τρίτο τραπεζογραµµάτιο τησ σειράσ «Ευρώπη», µετά τα τραπεζογραµµάτια των 5 και των 10 ευρώ, που πρÞκειται να τεθεί σε κυκλοφορία.

Η ΕΚΤ και οι εθνικέσ κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ τησ ζώνησ του ευρώ θα παρουσιάσουν επίσηµα το νέο τραπεζογραµµάτιο και θα ανακοινώσουν την ακριβή ηµεροµηνία εισαγωγήσ του στισ 24 Φεβρουαρίου. Σύµφωνα µε ανακοίνωση τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ, στο νέο τραπεζογραµµάτιο έχουν ενσωµατωθεί βελτιωµένα χαρακτηριστικά ασφαλείασ. Αναφέρει επίσησ Þτι η σειρά «Ευρώπη» τίθεται σταδιακά σε κυκλοφορία µε σκοπÞ την περαιτέρω βελτίωση τησ ακεραιÞτητασ των τραπεζογραµµατίων ευρώ και το συνεχέσ προβά-

δισµα έναντι των παραχαρακτών και σηµειώνει Þτι το Ευρωσύστηµα λαµβάνει σειρά µέτρων για να στηρίξει τουσ κατασκευαστέσ, προµηθευτέσ και ιδιοκτήτεσ εξοπλισµού επεξεργασίασ τραπεζογραµµατίων. Σύµφωνα µε την ΕΚΤ, θα θέσει το νέο τραπεζογραµµάτιο στη διάθεση τουσ στισ εγκαταστάσεισ των εθνικών κεντρικών τραπεζών τησ ζώνησ του ευρώ, πολύ πριν απÞ τη θέση του σε κυκλοφορία, ούτωσ ώστε να µπορούν να πραγµατοποιήσουν δοκιµέσ και να προσαρµÞσουν τον εξοπλισµÞ τουσ.

∏ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ÚÒÙË ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÙÈÎ‹ ÂÈÏÔÁ‹ ÁÈ· ÙÔ˘˜ ∫‡ÚÈÔ˘˜ Εκδήλωση παρουσίαση τησ Ηπείρου ωσ τουριστικÞ προορισµÞ, διοργάνωσε στην Κύπρο, ο ΕλληνικÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Τουρισµού διοργάνωσε υπÞ την αιγίδα τησ Πρεσβείασ τησ Ελλάδασ. Οι Κύπριοι, σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία τησ Στατιστικήσ Υπηρεσίασ Κύπρου, επιλέγουν την Ελλάδα ωσ τον πρώτο προορισµÞ τουσ τÞσο για ανάπαυση και ψυχαγωγία Þσο και για επαγγελµατικέσ δραστηριÞτητεσ. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, δεν είναι

λίγοι οι Κύπριοι που επιλέγουν την Ελλάδα για θρησκευτικÞ ή πράσινο τουρισµÞ αλλά και για τα θεραπευτικά ιαµατικά λουτρά που υπάρχουν σε πολλέσ ελληνικέσ περιφέρειεσ. Παρουσιάζοντασ την Περιφέρεια τησ Ηπείρου ο Αντιπεριφερειάρχησ, Στράτοσ Ιωάννου ανάφερε Þτι ο τουρίστασ έχει τη δυνατÞτητα καθ’ Þλη την διάρκεια του χρÞνου να απολαύσει στην Ήπειρο τα κρυστάλλινα νερά, τη συγκλονιστική θέα απÞ τα επιβλητικά βουνά, µοναδικέσ βÞλτεσ στα

πέτρινα γεφύρια, στιγµέσ ξεκούρασησ στα χιονοδροµικά κέντρα και µοναδικέσ νοστιµιέσ απÞ την µεγάλη γκάµα τησ Ηπειρώτικησ κουζίνασ. Τισ εντυπώσεισ κέρδισε η µοντέρνα οινογαστρονοµική πρÞταση-παρουσίαση τησ ηπειρώτικησ κουζίνασ απÞ κορυφαίουσ σεφ που αξιοποίησαν τα µέγιστα παραδοσιακέσ συνταγέσ και µοναδικά σε αγνÞτητα και ταυτÞτητα προϊÞντα απÞ την Ήπειρο.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

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∂ÈÌ‹Î˘ÓÛË ÙÔ˘ÚÈÛÙÈÎ‹˜ ÂÚÈfi‰Ô˘ £ÂˆÚ›· Î·È ¶Ú·ÎÙÈÎ‹ ∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿ÙÂ˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘ÍË˜

Το θέµα τησ επιµήκυνσησ τησ τουριστικήσ περιÞδου συζητείται εδώ και χρÞνια και Þλοι οι σχετικοί φορείσ ακÞµη ψάχνονται να βρουν κάποια λύση. Γίνονται µελέτεσ και µελέτεσ µε τουσ λιγÞτερο ενδιαφερÞµενουσ, εκείνουσ που θα εισπράξουν την τυχÞν επιτυχία, τουσ ξενοδÞχουσ και τα κέντρα αναψυχήσ. Η µÞνη πρÞταση που υπάρχει εκ µέρουσ τουσ είναι να επιχορηγούµε εµείσ οι υπÞλοιποι το κÞστοσ των τουριστών για να εισπράττουν οι λίγοι. Υποβάλαµε και στο παρελθÞν προτάσεισ επί του θέµατοσ σε διάφορα επίπεδα, χωρίσ ιδιαίτερο κÞστοσ για το Κράτοσ. Έγιναν και συσκέψεισ στην ΛεµεσÞ µε προεδρεύοντα τον ∆ήµαρχο Λεµεσού, παρουσία και των Βάσεων, Κ.Ο.Τ., Τ.Α.Υ. και Þλουσ τουσ ∆ήµουσ τησ Λεµεσού. Και τι έγινε; Μετά απÞ τον καφέ, Þλοι πήγαµε στα γραφεία µασ και δεν έγινε τίποτε. Η βάση τησ επέκτασησ των χειµερινού τουρισµού είναι Þχι µÞνο ο καιρÞσ αλλά ο επισκέπτησ να έχει κάτι να ασχοληθεί σε Þλεσ τησ ηλικίεσ και ασφαλώσ σε κÞστοσ που να µπορεί να το αντέξει ανάλογα µε τον υπάρχοντα ανταγωνισµÞ. - Αθλοπαιδιέσ - Ο καιρÞσ επιτρέπει την χρήση αυτού του εργαλείου προσέλκυσησ και κατά τουσ χειµερινούσ µήνεσ.Υπάρχουν τώρα 5 γήπεδα γκολφ (Þλα δυστυχώσ στην Πάφο) και αυτÞ είναι ένα σοβαρÞ προσÞν. Εάν ελέγξετε Þµωσ το κÞστοσ του παιγνιδιού σε σχέση µε εκείνα τησ γήπεδα τησ Τουρκίασ και Ελλάδασ – πλέον τησ Αιγύπτου που φαίνεται να άρχισε να ανακάµπτει στον τουρισµÞ, είναι 20% πιο ψηλÞ το κÞστοσ του παιγνιδιού. - Τα φράγµατα, τα οποία αν και σήµερα είναι κάτω τησ επιτρεπτήσ χωρητικÞτητασ, εντούτοισ θα µπορούσαν υπÞ καλύτερεσ συνθήκεσ να έχουν και αυτά τον ρÞλο του στην προσέλκυση ξένων και ντÞπιων τουριστών µε ενασχÞληση κυρίωσ των νέων (Κυπρίων) και άλλων. Και Þµωσ αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ απαγορεύεται η χρήση των υδατοφρακτών για σπορ κλπ (αν είναι δυνατÞν), διÞτι οι σχετικοί κανονισµοί εκκρεµούν στην Βουλή εδώ και 10 χρÞνια. Η υιοθέτηση ανέγερσησ εγκαταστάσεων αθλητισµού (π.χ. κωπηλασίασ/µικρά σκάφη ιστιοπλοΐασ κλπ) είναι Þτι το καλύτερο. Ορισµένοι ∆ήµοι, και καλά κάνουν, δείχνουν στραβά µάτια και επιτρέπουν ευτυχώσ την χρήση τουσ, Þπωσ ο ∆ήµοσ Πολεµιδιών για το δικÞ του φράγµα για σκι, ο ∆ήµοσ ΓερµασÞγειασ για κωπηλασία

(dragon racing) και µια περιορισµένη προσπάθεια επιπλέον για το φράγµα Κούρρη για κωπηλασία. Αυτέσ οι εγκαταστάσεισ θα µπορούσαν να ανεγερθούν απÞ ιδιώτεσ βάσει προδιαγραφών του Κράτουσ και είµαστε πεπεισµένοι Þτι θα είναι βιώσιµα, Þχι µÞνο λÞγω τησ εισφοράσ των µελών, αλλά και απÞ διάφορεσ εκδηλώσεισ και χρήση τουσ ωσ café/εστιατÞρια. Εδώ χρειάζεται προσοχή για να µην εµπίπτουν τα τεµάχια αυτά εντÞσ τησ απαλλοτριωθείσασ ζώνησ, διÞτι θα υπάρχει πρÞβληµα νοµικÞ. Ίσωσ επίτευξη απαλλοτρίωσησ παραπλήσιων κτηµάτων, µε ανάλογεσ υποδοµέσ πρÞσβασησ στουσ φράκτεσ. Τι κρίµα το φράγµα του ΑσπρÞκρεµµου, Λευκάρων κλπ να είναι πλήρωσ αναξιοποίητα; - Beach Volley - Σπορ παντÞσ καιρού. Και Þµωσ, αφού ξοδέψαµε 1 εκ. ευρώ για την δηµιουργία τησ εγκατάστασησ αυτήσ στον Πρωταρά για τον διεθνή διαγωνισµÞ πανεπιστηµίων, παραµένει κλειστÞ και αχρησιµοποίητο εδώ και 5 χρÞνια. - Ιστιοπλοΐα - Υπάρχουν προτάσεισ για µικρά φυσικά καταφύγια για ιστιοπλοϊκά σκάφη µικρού µεγέθουσ απÞ ιδιώτεσ επενδυτέσ και Þµωσ για τον ένα ή άλλο λÞγο απορρίφθηκαν. Ένα παράδειγµα στον Πρωταρά. - ΘρησκευτικÞσ ΤουρισµÞσ – Μπράβο στην Αρχιεπισκοπήσ και στον αξιÞλογο Επίσκοπο Μεσαορίασ κ. ΓρηγÞριο, χρειάζεται Þµωσ οργάνωση µαζί µε τουσ ξενοδÞχουσ και tour operators. - Μοτοσικλέτεσ αγώνων – Παράδειγµα ο πετυχηµένοσ στίβοσ στην Αγία Βαρβάρα Λευκωσίασ και Þχι µÞνο, αποτελεί εξαιρετικÞ χώρο ενασχÞλησησ για τουσ νέουσ µασ και Þµορφο θέαµα. - Πάρκα Κυνηγίου – Σε παρÞµοια βάση Þπωσ τησ Βρετανίασ, Þπου η γη ανήκει σε ιδιώτεσ/Κράτοσ, µε τουσ επίδοξουσ κυνηγούσ να συνεισφέρουν τÞσο σε εγκαταστάσεισ Þσο και σε θήραµα. Περιοχέσ Þπωσ ∆ελίκηποσΛεύκαρα, αγροτικέσ περιοχέσ Πάφου και άλλεσ, είναι µια επιλογή ωσ τοποθεσία. Ναι χρειάζεται επιδÞτηση έστω 1-2 εκ. ευρώ αλλά οι 50.000 ντÞπιοι κυνηγοί, µαζί µε ξένουσ επισκέπτεσ µε δικαίωµα µέλουσ 200 ευρώ τον χρÞνο, πλέον χρέωση επί του θηράµατοσ είναι µια σκέψη – Για Κύπριουσ που επισκέπτονται την Βουλγαρία και Σκωτία επί του θέµατοσ. - Πίστα αυτοκινήτων - ΠρÞταση ΣιακÞλα για το αεροδρÞµιο Λάρνακασ, είτε επί διεθνούσ βάσησ είτε άλλωσ πωσ. Ασ ενθαρρύνουµε αυτÞν τον επενδυτή/άλλουσ προσ αυτήν την κατεύθυνση. - Συζητώντασ µε τισ Αρχέσ των Βάσεων οι τελευταίοι έδειξαν ενδιαφέρον συµµετοχήσ εντÞσ τησ δικήσ τουσ κυριαρχίασ να γίνονται φιλανθρωπικέσ και άλλεσ εκδηλώσεισ Þπωσ γαϊδουροδροµίεσ κλπ (Παράδειγµα το Happy Valley) – κατά περιÞδουσ.

- Kite surfing, wind surfing, jet ski clubs ιδιαίτερα στην περιοχή Αυδήµου. Μεγάλεσ αχρησιµοποίητεσ παραλιακέσ εκτάσεισ που θα δώσουν ζωή στην περιοχή. - Cowboy Trails – Με χρήση αλÞγων/γαϊδάρων για διασκέδαση για παιδιά (και µεγάλουσ). Ίσωσ µονοπάτια στον ποταµÞ Κούρρη που να ξεκινά απÞ την Ερήµη µε 1-2 σταθµούσ κατά µήκοσ µε ειδικευµένουσ ξεναγούσ. ΠαρÞµοια στον ποταµÞ Έζουσασ. Αυτά και άλλα, αλλά στο τέλοσ τησ ηµέρασ και εκτÞσ του κÞστουσ τησ αεροπορικήσ σύνδεσησ για ξένουσ (2 άτοµα µε Aegean προσ Κύπρο 150 ευρώ – και οι δύο) και µετά στην επιστροφή για να πάνω Πάφο απÞ την Λευκωσία τουσ κÞστισε 48 ευρώ!!) – δηλαδή 30% του κÞστουσ αεροµεταφοράσ. Η προσέλκυση τουριστών µε τισ πιο πάνω ιδέεσ και άλλεσ ωσ σύνολο θα κοστίσουν περίπου στουσ ιδιώτεσ γύρω στα 10 εκ. ευρώ. Θα πρέπει Þµωσ να συνδέεται ο τουρισµÞσ µε αυστηρή επίβλεψη για το παρεξηγηµένο ελεύθερο εµπÞριο του free-for-all και ανεξέλεγκτων χρεώσεων. - Ταξί - Ίσωσ η µεγαλύτερη µαφία που υπάρχει και ανάλογα των συµφερÞντων τουσ να καταργούν συνδέσεισ µε λεωφορεία (Πρωταράσ – Αγία Νάπα – ταξί 8 ευρώ και λεωφορείο 2.5 ευρώ). Σσυµπεριφορέσ Þπου η δολοφονία τησ Γαλλίδασ τουρίστριασ που πέταξε ο ταξιτζήσ το σώµα τησ σε πηγάδι στον ΚÞρνο το ξυλοκÞπηµα Αυστραλών τουριστών απÞ ταξιτζή στην Αγία Νάπα κλπ. - Χρεώσεισ εστιατορίων – Θα θυµάστε τι

ρεζίλι γίναµε ωσ Κύπροσ στο διαδίκτυο για την χρέωση 2 ευρώ ενÞσ λεµονιού στην Πάφο σε εστιατÞριο. - Χρεώσεισ ποτών – Οτιδήποτε ποτÞ 3-4 φορέσ του κÞστουσ αγοράσ (χρέωση 40 ευρώ για µια µπουκάλα Μοσχοφίλερο κÞστουσ αγοράσ 7.50 ευρώ!!) και τÞσα άλλα, για να µην αναφερθούµε το κÞστοσ του εµφιαλωµένου νερού. Η Ελλάδα µασ δείχνει τον δρÞµο. Αύξηση του τουρισµού κατά 20% τον τελευταίο χρÞνο λÞγω Þχι µÞνο των ελκυστικÞτερων τιµών, αλλά και τησ αυξηµένησ ποιÞτητασ, ενώ εµείσ χαιρÞµαστε µε 1%-2% αύξηση. Και αφού αυτή η Ελλάδα προέβαλε σε κεντρικÞ δελτίο ειδήσεων για υπερχρέωση ενÞσ εστιατορίου και διάφορων περιπτέρων Þπου ο ΥπουργÞσ Τουρισµού διέταξε την προσωρινή αναστολή τησ λειτουργίασ τουσ. Έχουµε τέτοια κÞτσια να υιοθετήσουµε αυστηρά µέτρα; ∆εν νοµίζουµε – παράδειγµα τι γίνεται µε τισ παραλίεσ και τα εµπλεκÞµενα συµφέροντα απÞ βουλευτέσ µασ/άρθρο του κ. Χρ. Πουργουρίδη είναι σχετικÞ. ΧρειαζÞµαστε κύριε πρÞεδρε του ΚΟΤ µέτρα, προτάσεισ, έντονεσ πιέσεισ, συνεχείσ δηµοσιογραφικέσ προβολέσ και προβολή των θεµάτων σασ στο κοινÞ τησ Κύπρου, προσ αφύπνιση του και εξάσκηση πιέσεων στουσ πολιτικούσ για να έχουµε κάποια ελπίδα, διαφορετικά εδώ θα είµαστε πάλι µετά απÞ 3 χρÞνια να επαναλαµβάνουµε τον εαυτÞ µασ πωσ θα επεκτείνουµε τον χειµερινÞ τουρισµÞ.

AÍÈÔÔ›ËÛË ÎÂÊ·Ï·›ˆÓ ÁÈ· ÌÈÎÚÔÌÂÛ·›Ô˘˜ fiÚÔ˘ §Â˘Ù¤ÚË˜ ÃÚÈÛÙÔÊfiÚ Αναπληρωτής Πρόεδρος ∆Η.ΣΥ.- Ευρωβουλευτής Η Κύπροσ τα τελευταία χρÞνια υφίσταται µία άνευ προηγουµένου κοινωνικοοικονοµική κρίση µε τεράστιεσ συνέπειεσ στον κοινωνικοοικονοµικÞ τησ ιστÞ. Ένασ πολυσήµαντοσ τοµέασ για την κοινωνικοοικονοµική πρÞοδο του τÞπου µασ οι Μικροµεσαίεσ Επιχειρήσεισ, οι καλούµενεσ οικογενειακέσ επιχειρήσεισ, οι αποκαλούµενεσ ωσ και η ραχοκοκκαλιά του τÞπου µασ, υπέστησαν ανεπανÞρθωτεσ ζηµιέσ και περνούν ακÞµη δύσκολεσ ώρεσ. Η αδυναµία πρÞσβασησ των

Μικροµεσαίων Επιχειρήσεων σε πηγέσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ και συνάµα το ψηλÞ κÞστοσ χρήµατοσ οδηγεί µονοδροµικά σε κλείσιµο ακÞµη και βιώσιµων επιχειρήσεων οι οποίεσ ασφυκτιούν απÞ την παντελή έλλειψη ρευστÞτητασ. Ùσεσ επιχειρήσεισ κρατήθηκαν Þρθιεσ τούτο κατέστην δυνατÞν κατÞπιν ‘ηρωικών θυσιών’ των εργαζοµένων και των Μικροµεσαίων επιχειρηµατιών. Τώρα δεν είναι η ώρα του τραγικού απολογισµού για την πορεία τησ επιχειρηµατικÞτητασ στη χώρα µασ, αλλά είναι η ώρα τησ συντονισµένησ προσπάθειασ, του σχεδιασµού για το µέλλον και τησ χάραξησ πολιτικήσ εξÞδου των Μικροµεσαίων Επιχειρήσεων απÞ την αδιέξοδο στενωπÞ τησ έλλειψησ ρευστÞτητασ και φθηνού χρήµατοσ. Είναι αισιÞδοξο το γεγονÞσ το Þτι ο

ΧρηµατοπιστωτικÞσ Τοµέασ άρχισε να σταθεροποιείται και πιθανώσ να προχωρήσει σε χρηµατοδÞτηση των επιχειρήσεων. Ιδιαίτερα δε, είναι σηµαντικÞ το Þτι τÞσο ο ΣυνεργατισµÞσ Þσο και οι Τράπεζεσ έχουν την ευχέρεια να τισ χρηµατοδοτήσουν, µέσω του Σχεδίου ΕπιχειρηµατικÞτητασ που βασίζεται στην Ευρωπαϊκή Τράπεζα Επενδύσεων, µε χαµηλÞ επιτÞκιο και µε εξασφάλιση απÞ το κράτοσ συνολικÞ ποσÞ κεφαλαίων ύψουσ περίπου 200 εκ. ευρώ. Η Κύπροσ, εξαιτίασ των µεγάλων τησ χρηµατοδοτικών αναγκών τÞσο για την οικονοµία Þσο και για τισ επιχειρήσεισ, οφείλει να είναι πανέτοιµη για να αξιοποιήσει ευρωπαϊκά κονδύλια και σηµαντικά προγράµµατα. Το νέο αναπτυξιακÞ πλαίσιο τησ νέασ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ που προνοεί 315 δισ ευρώ για χρηµατοδοτήσεισ σε σύµπραξη µε τον ΙδιωτικÞ Τοµέα σε

αναπτυξιακά έργα αποτελεί µία µοναδική ευκαιρία για να ‘πιάσουµε’ δουλειά απÞ τώρα και να µην περιµένουµε Þτι θα φθάσουν ‘έτσι απλά’ τα Þποια ευρωπαϊκά χρήµατα στη Κύπρο. Απαιτείται εγρήγορση, προγραµµατισµÞσ και στρατηγικÞσ σχεδιασµÞσ που θα προσανατολίζεται στην άντληση κεφαλαίων απÞ αυτÞ το µεγάλο ευρωπαϊκÞ επενδυτικÞ πρÞγραµµα των 315 δισ ευρώ. Η Κύπροσ µπορεί να αξιοποιήσει τα ευρωπαϊκά ταµεία που σήµερα αποτελούν και τη µοναδική πηγή άντλησησ φθηνού και φρέσκου χρήµατοσ για την οικονοµία και τισ επιχειρήσεισ. Αυτή τη φορά η Κύπροσ οφείλει να είναι παρούσα στισ ευρωπαϊκέσ χρηµατοδοτήσεισ γιατί το δικαιούται, το έχει ανάγκη αλλά και γιατί η Ε.Ε. οφείλει να ανταποκριθεί θετικά σε µία χώρα –µέλοσ τησ που δεινοπαθεί και εξαιτίασ δικών τησ αποφάσεων.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

∞ÏÏ·Á¤˜ ÛÙÔ ˆÚ¿ÚÈÔ ÙÔ˘ Ã∞∫ ÏfiÁˆ ÂÔÚÙÒÓ Το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου (ΧΑΚ) ανακοίνωσε Þτι κατά την περίοδο των εορτών των Χριστουγέννων τησ Πρωτοχρονιάσ και των Θεοφανείων δεν θα διεξαχθούν χρηµατιστηριακέσ συναντήσεισ, ούτε εκκαθάριση/χρηµατικÞσ διακανονισµÞσ των χρηµατιστηριακών συναλλαγών ωσ ακολούθωσ: την Τετάρτη 24 ∆εκεµβρίου 2014, την Πέµπτη 25 ∆εκεµβρίου 2014, την Παρασκευή 26 ∆εκεµβρίου 2014, την Πέµπτη 1 Ιανουαρίου 2015 και την Τρίτη 6 Ιανουαρίου 2015 οι οποί-

εσ είναι ∆ηµÞσιεσ αργίεσ. Το ΧΑΚ λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη τη λειτουργία τησ Κοινήσ ΠλατφÞρµασ ΧΑΚ-ΧΑ και ιδιαίτερα το γεγονÞσ Þτι και το Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών θα τηρήσει ειδικÞ ωράριο κατά την ηµέρα τησ Παραµονήσ τησ Πρωτοχρονιάσ (31/12/2014), αποφάσισε στα πλαίσια τησ διασφάλισησ τησ οµαλήσ και εύρυθµησ λειτουργίασ τησ Αγοράσ, Þπωσ διαφοροποιήσει το ωράριο λειτουργίασ τησ χρηµατιστηριακήσ συνεδρίασησ του ΧΑΚ την ηµέρα εκείνη και

ορισµένεσ απÞ τισ Αγορέσ του να κλείσουν 2 (δύο) ώρεσ νωρίτερα. Συγκεκριµένα, η λήξη τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ των Aγορών που κανονικά κλείνουν στισ 17:20 (δηλαδή Κύρια Αγορά, Αγορά ΠοντοπÞρου Ναυτιλίασ, Παράλληλη Αγορά, Εναλλακτική Αγορά, Αγορά Επενδυτικών Οργανισµών, Αγορά Κυβερνητικών ΟµολÞγων, Αγορά Εταιρικών ΟµολÞγων καθώσ και η Νεοαναπτυσσοµένων Εταιρειών Αγορά) θα γίνει κατά την ηµεροµηνία εκείνη

(31/12/2014) στισ 15:20 ενώ η λήξη τησ Αγοράσ Ειδικών Χαρακτηριστικών η οποία κανονικά κλείνει στισ 17:05, θα γίνει στισ 15:05. Οι ακριβείσ επιµέρουσ χρονισµοί κάθε Αγοράσ του ΧΑΚ Þπου διαφοροποιούνται για την ηµεροµηνία αυτή (31/12/2014), θα δηµοσιοποιηθούν στην ιστοσελίδα του ΧΑΚ. http://www.cse.com.cy/el-GR/regulatedmarket/market-indices/otherinformation/markets-schedule/

∞·Ú·›ÙËÙÂ˜ ÔÈ Û˘ÓÂÚÁ·Û›Â˜ ÛÙÔÓ ÙÔÌ¤· ÙÔ˘ º.∞ Πραγµατοποιήθηκε πρÞσφατα η 2η Ετήσια Γενική Συνέλευση των µελών του Κυπριακού Συνδέσµου Επιχειρήσεων Πετρελαίου και Φυσικού Αερίου ο οποίοσ είναι συνδεδεµένοσ µε το ΚΕΒΕ. Στο χαιρετισµÞ του στη Γενική Συνέλευση ο ΥπουργÞσ, Ενέργειασ, Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού, Γιώργοσ Λακκοτρύπησ τÞνισε τη σηµασία του τοµέα για την οικονοµία τησ Κύπρου, αναφέρθηκε στισ συναφείσ γεωπολιτικέσ επιπτώσεισ και διαβεβαίωσε Þτι οι εργασίεσ έρευνασ διεξάγονται σύµφωνα µε το πρÞγραµµα. Στη Συνέλευση παρέστησαν επίσησ ο ΠρÞεδροσ του ΚΕΒΕ, εκπρÞσωποι κοµµάτων, µέλη του διπλωµατικού σώµατοσ, ανώτεροι κρατικοί αξιωµατούχοι και µέλη του

Συνδέσµου. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ του ΚΕΒΕ στο χαιρετισµÞ του αναφέρθηκε στη σηµασία τησ σύναψησ των απαραίτητων συνεργειών και συνεργασιών που πρέπει να αναπτυχθούν µε γειτονικέσ χώρεσ στον τοµέα τησ ενέργειασ και διαβεβαίωσε για την ετοιµÞτητα του Επιµελητηρίου να συνεισφέρει προσ αυτή την κατεύθυνση. ΑπÞ την πλευρά του ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Συνδέσµου Άντησ Βαρωσιώτησ προέβη σε µια εµπεριστατωµένη παρουσίαση γύρω απÞ τισ παγκÞσµιεσ ενεργειακέσ τάσεισ, τισ επιλογέσ αξιοποίησησ τον κοιτασµάτων υδρογονανθράκων στην Κυπριακή Αποκλειστική Οικονοµική Ζώνη, και στισ επιλογέσ για νοµισµατοποιήση µε χερσαία και θαλάσσια µέσα και υποδοµέσ.

¶¤ÓÙÂ ˘ÔÙÚÔÊ›Â˜ ÁÈ· ÚÔÙ˘¯È·Î¤˜ ÛÔ˘‰¤˜ ·fi ÙÔ CIIM Επ’ ευκαιρία των 25 χρÞνων απÞ την ίδρυσή του, το CIIM προσφέρει πέντε πλήρεισ υποτροφίεσ σε αριστούχουσ απÞφοιτουσ δευτεροβάθµιασ εκπαίδευσησ που εξαιτίασ τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ ή άλλων λÞγων, δεν µπÞρεσαν να σπουδάσουν. Οι υπÞτροφοι που θα επιλεγούν κατÞπιν προσωπικήσ συνέντευξησ, θα είναι µεταξύ των πρώτων φοιτητών που θα ενταχθούν στο προπτυχιακÞ πρÞγραµµα του CIIM στη ∆ιοίκηση Επιχειρήσεων, Bachelor in Business Administration (ΒΒΑ), που αρχίζει στισ 2 Φεβρουάριου του 2015. Οι επιτυχÞντεσ θα τυγχάνουν πλήρουσ υποτροφίασ καθ’ Þλη την διάρκεια των σπουδών τουσ δεδοµένου Þτι διατηρούν άριστη επίδοση. Σηµειώνεται Þτι οι υποτροφίεσ αυτέσ ισχύουν µÞνο για την εισδοχή του Φεβρουαρίου 2015 και Þχι για την εισδοχή του Σεπτεµβρίου του 2015. Το τετραετέσ CIIM BBA είναι ένα πρωτοποριακÞ πρÞγραµµα που συνδυάζει την ακαδηµαϊκή αριστεία µε την

πρακτική εξάσκηση, την προσωπική ανάπτυξη µε την επαγγελµατική ανέλιξη, την επιχειρηµατικÞτητα µε τισ ηθικέσ αξίεσ και τη διοικητική επιστήµη µε την κοινωνική ευθύνη. Το πρÞγραµµα διδάσκεται στην αγγλική. Οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι θα πρέπει να υποβάλουν αίτηση µέχρι τισ 12 Ιανουαρίου 2015 µαζί µε δικαιολογητικά που να αποδεικνύουν την αριστεία τουσ (π.χ. Απολυτήριο µε γενικÞ βαθµÞ 18+, ή 3 GCSE µε βαθµούσ ΑΒΒ, ή βαθµÞ πρÞσβασησ Παγκύπριων Εξετάσεων 17+, ή βαθµÞ International Baccalaureate 32+), καθώσ και καλή γνώση τησ αγγλικήσ γλώσσασ (π.χ. IELTS, GCSE, TOEFL). Ο επιτυχÞντεσ, αφού πρώτα καλύψουν το βασικÞ κορµÞ του προγράµµατοσ, θα επιλέξουν κατά τον τρίτο χρÞνο των σπουδών τουσ µεταξύ των ακÞλουθων 4 περιζήτητων τοµέων εξειδίκευσησ: - ∆ιεθνήσ ∆ιοίκηση Επιχειρήσεων (International Business Management)

- Πληροφορική ∆ιοίκησησ Επιχειρήσεων (Business Information Technology) - Καινοτοµία και ΕπιχειρηµατικÞτητα (Innovation & Entrepreneurship) - Χρηµατοοικονοµική και ∆ιοικητική Λογιστική (Financial & Managerial Accounting) Οι απÞφοιτοι του προγράµµατοσ θα τύχουν ατοµικήσ βοήθειασ για εξεύρεση εργασίασ, ή για δηµιουργία δικήσ τουσ επιχείρησησ (start-up), ή για µεταπτυχιακέσ σπουδέσ µέσω του γραφείου σταδιοδροµίασ του CIIM και τησ δικτύωσήσ τουσ µε µεγάλο αριθµÞ συνεργαζοµένων εταιρειών και πανεπιστηµίων στη Κύπρο και το εξωτερικÞ. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ και αιτήσεισ οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να επικοινωνούν µε τη Θεοδώρα Πετάση στο 22462246, ή µε email στο admissions@ciim.ac.cy ή να επισκεφθούν την ιστοσελίδα www.ciim.ac.cy/bba.

¡¤Â˜ ÂÈ¯ÔÚËÁ‹ÛÂÈ˜ €8 800.000 ÁÈ· ¤ÚÂ˘Ó· ·fi ÙÔ π¶∂ Χρηµατοδοτήσεισ ύψουσ 800.000 ευρώ, θα διαθέσει το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ) στο πλαίσιο προκήρυξησ τεσσάρων νέων διεθνικών Προσκλήσεων για έρευνα και τεχνολογική ανάπτυξη. Για τον σκοπÞ αυτÞ, το Ίδρυµα καλεί ερευνητικούσ και ακαδηµαϊκούσ φορείσ απÞ το δηµÞσιο και ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα, µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ και άλλουσ ενδιαφερÞµενουσ Þπωσ υποβάλουν ερευνητικέσ προτάσεισ. Μέσα απÞ τη συµµετοχή του ΙΠΕ στα διεθνικά δίκτυα δίνεται η δυνατÞτητα σε κυπριακούσ φορείσ να συµµετάσχουν στισ κοινέσ διεθνικέσ προσκλήσεισ που προκηρύσσονται, συµβάλλοντασ στην εξωστρέφεια του εθνικού ερευνητικού συστήµατοσ µέσα απÞ την ανάπτυξη συνεργασιών και τη δικτύωση κυπριακών και ευρωπαϊκών φορείων και επιχειρήσεων. Η πρώτη ενÞτητα αφορά τη δυνατÞτητα υποβολήσ προτάσεων στο πλαίσιο τησ 2ησ κοινήσ ΠρÞσκλησησ υποβολήσ προτάσεων του ευρωπαϊκού Έργου µε τίτλο «Systems Biology Applications» («ERASysAPP») που στοχεύει στη διεθνική συνεργασία µεταξύ ευρωπαϊκών χρηµατοδοτικών οργανισµών για την προώθηση τησ έρευνασ στον ευρύτερο τοµέα των βιολογικών συστηµάτων. Η συγκεκριµένη ΠρÞσκληση, µε καταληκτική ηµεροµηνία υποβολήσ στισ 14 Ιανουαρίου 2015, επικεντρώνεται στην εφαρµοσµένη έρευνα των βιολογικών συστηµάτων για µικροοργανισµούσ, φυτά και ζώα εντÞσ του ευρύτερου τοµέα των βιοεπιστηµών και τησ βιοτεχνολογίασ.

Η επÞµενη ΠρÞσκληση είναι η 1η κοινή ΠρÞσκληση υποβολήσ προτάσεων του ευρωπαϊκού Έργου µε τίτλο «EUROMEDITERRANEAN Cooperation through ERANET Joint Activities and Beyond» (ERANETMED) που στοχεύει στην προώθηση τησ ευρω-µεσογειακήσ συνεργασίασ στον τοµέα τησ έρευνασ σε θεµατικά πεδία τα οποία αποτελούν σηµαντικέσ κοινέσ προκλήσεισ στην περιοχή τησ Μεσογείου Þπωσ η ενέργεια και η διαχείριση υδάτινων πÞρων. Οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να υποβάλουν τισ προτάσεισ τουσ µέχρι τισ 2 Φεβρουαρίου 2015. Παράλληλα, το ΙΠΕ ενηµερώνει για τη δυνατÞτητα υποβολήσ προτάσεων στο πλαίσιο τησ Πρωτοβουλίασ Κοινού Προγραµµατισµού «URBAN EUROPE» µε καταληκτική ηµεροµηνία υποβολήσ στισ 17 Μαρτίου 2015. ΣτÞχοσ τησ ΠρÞσκλησησ είναι η χρηµατοδÞτηση Έργων έρευνασ και καινοτοµίασ για εξέταση και αξιολÞγηση προβληµάτων και προκλήσεων του αστικού περιβάλλοντοσ και η διαµÞρφωση προτάσεων για επίλυσή τουσ, συµβάλλοντασ στη δηµιουργία «έξυπνων πÞλεων» ιδιαίτερα

στα θέµατα ενέργειασ, µεταφορών, διαχείρισησ δεδοµένων και διακυβέρνησησ. Η τελευταία πρÞσκληση αφορά το δίκτυο «SOLAR-ERA.NET» στο οποίο συµµετέχουν οργανισµοί χρηµατοδÞτησησ έρευνασ απÞ 17 ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ και περιφέρειεσ µε στÞχο την ανάπτυξη αειφÞρου συνεργασίασ µεταξύ εθνικών προγραµµάτων και οργανισµών χρηµατοδÞτησησ έρευνασ και καινοτοµίασ στα θέµατα παραγωγήσ

ηλεκτρισµού απÞ ηλιακή ενέργεια. Η εν λÞγω ΠρÞσκληση, η οποία είναι ανοικτή µέχρι τισ 27 Μαρτίου 2015, καλύπτει τισ τεχνολογίεσ φωτοβολταϊκών συστηµάτων και συγκεντρωτικών συστηµάτων ηλιακήσ ενέργειασ. Σχετικέσ πληροφορίεσ για τη διαδικασία και τουσ κανÞνεσ συµµετοχήσ είναι διαθέσιµεσ στην ιστοσελίδα του ΙΠΕ www.research.org.cy

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5

æ‹ÊÔ˜ ÂÌÈÛÙÔÛ‡ÓË˜ ÛÙÈ˜ ÌÂÙÔ¯¤˜ ·fi ÙÔ˘˜ ‰ÈÂıÓÂ›˜ Ô›ÎÔ˘˜ Με την έλευση του 2015 δεν θα µπορούσαν να λείψουν οι εκτιµήσεισ των διεθνών οίκων για Þλα Þσα αναµένεται να βρεθούν στο επίκεντρο του ενδιαφέροντοσ τησ παγκÞσµιασ οικονοµίασ. Στην πλειοψηφία τουσ οι διεθνείσ οίκοι δίνουν ψήφο εµπιστοσύνησ στισ µετοχέσ, εκτιµώντασ πωσ το bull market θα συνεχιστεί. Σύµφωνα µε τισ εκτιµήσεισ των αναλυτών και το 2015 οι αγορέσ σε Ευρώπη και ΗΠΑ θα σηµειώσουν κέρδη, τα οποία ξεκινούν απÞ 5% και φτάνουν µέχρι και το 12%.

JP Morgan ΑπÞδοση 10% για τισ µετοχέσ αναµένουν οι αναλυτέσ τησ JP Morgan το 2015 σε έκθεσή για τισ κορυφαίεσ επενδυτικέσ επιλογέσ για το νέο έτοσ. ∆ίνοντασ για έκτη διαδοχική χρονιά σύσταση για απÞδοση µεγαλύτερη απÞ εκείνη τησ αγοράσ για τισ µετοχέσ σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο, οι αναλυτέσ του επενδυτικού οίκου επισηµαίνουν Þτι οι βασικοί κίνδυνοι για τα χρηµατιστήρια προέρχονται απÞ το ενδεχÞµενο ύφεσησ, αποπληθωρισµού ή µιασ σηµαντικήσ ενίσχυσησ τησ αβεβαιÞτητασ. Αν και οι αναλυτέσ του οίκου βλέπουν απίθανο να πραγµατοποιηθούν οι συγκεκριµένοι κίνδυνο, ωστÞσο ακÞµη και αν βγουν αληθινοί δεν αναµένεται να επηρεάσουν δραµατικά τισ µετοχικέσ αποδÞσεισ. Σύµφωνα µε την JP Morgan η παγκÞσµια οικονοµία θα πετύχει ρυθµÞ ανάπτυξησ τησ τάξεωσ του 3% µε τον πληθωρισµÞ να πέφτει σε επίπεδα κάτω του 2% απÞ τα µέσα του 2015.

Barclays Και οι αναλυτέσ τησ Barclays προβλέπουν πωσ οι µετοχέσ παγκοσµίωσ θα συνεχίζουν να κινούνται ανοδικά και θα καταγράψουν κέρδη τησ τάξεωσ του 9%. Η επενδυτική σε έκθεσή τησ για τισ παγκÞσµιεσ προοπτικέσ εστιάζει την προσοχή τησ στα ζητήµατα που αναµένεται να µονοπωλήσουν το ενδιαφέρον Þπωσ η συνεχήσ ενδυνάµωση του δολαρίου, η πολιτική που θα ακολουθήσει η Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ. Η πτώση στην τιµή του πετρελαίου και οι αρνητικέσ συνέπειεσ καθώσ και η πρÞθεση τησ ΕΚΤ να προχωρήσει σε ποσοτική χαλάρωση.

Citi Ψήφο εµπιστοσύνησ στισ µετοχέσ για το 2015 δίνει και η Citi δηλώνοντασ την προτίµησή τησ σε αυτέσ σε σύγκριση µε τα πάγια εισοδήµατα. Αυτή η προτίµηση του διεθνούσ οίκου υποστηρίζεται απÞ έναν ευνοϊκÞ συνδυασµÞ ελαφρώσ βελτιωµένησ ανάπτυξησ και του χαµηλού πληθωρισµού, κάτι που συνεπάγεται τη διατήρηση τησ χαλαρήσ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ ακÞµη και µεσοπρÞθεσµα. Οι αναλυτέσ τησ αµερικανικήσ τράπεζασ παραµένουν θετικοί στισ εκτιµήσεισ τουσ για την πορεία των µετοχών επισηµαίνοντασ Þτι η αύξηση των κερδών θα αποτελέσει τη βασική κινητήρια δύναµη για τισ παγκÞσµιεσ χρηµαταγορέσ απÞ εδώ και πέρα. Επιπλέον, το ενδεχÞµενο υιοθέτησησ πολιτικών ποσοτικήσ χαλάρωσησ απÞ την ΕΚΤ κάνει τουσ αναλυτέσ του οίκου να δηλώνουν την προτίµησή τουσ στισ ευρωπαϊκέσ χρηµατοπιστωτικέσ αγορέσ απÞ εκείνεσ των ΗΠΑ. Οι αναλυτέσ τησ Citi βλέπουν επίσησ υψηλÞτερεσ αποδÞσεισ µεσοπρÞθεσµα στισ σηµαντικÞτερεσ αγορέσ κυβερνητικών οµολÞγων σηµειώνοντασ τισ εκτιµήσεισ τουσ για υπεραπÞδοση στα οµÞλογα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Οικονοµικήσ και Νοµισµατικήσ Ένωσησ και τησ Ιαπωνίασ τηρουµένων πάντοτε των αναλογιών. Αναφορικά τώρα µε τα εµπορεύµατα ο αµερικανικÞσ οίκοσ αναµένει µια χαλαρή ενίσχυση τησ ζήτησησ στη διάρκεια του 2015 µε τισ τάσεισ να είναι ουδέτερεσ µε πτωτικέσ για το νέο έτοσ. Σχετικά µε την αγορά συναλλάγµατοσ οι αναλυτέσ τησ Citi βλέπουν περαιτέρω κέρδη για το δολάριο. Σε διαφορετική έκθεση του οίκου για τισ προοπτικέσ των αναδυÞµενων αγορών επισηµαίνεται Þτι η σηµαντικÞτερη αλλαγή για αυτέσ είναι το γεγονÞσ Þτι οι οικονοµ9ικέσ εξελίξεισ στην Κίνα γίνονται ολοένα και λιγÞτερο φιλικέσ προσ αυτέσ. Η ανάπτυξη του κινεζικού εισοδήµατοσ έχει µειωθεί την ίδια ώρα που οι αρχέσ προσπαθούν να αντιµετωπίσουν την υψηλή µÞχλευση τησ οικονοµίασ. Η συνακÞλουθη συρρίκνωση στισ κινεζικέσ εισαγωγέσ έχει συνδεθεί µε µία µεγαλύτερη εξασθένιση του πληθωρισµού στα εµπορεύµατα σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο.

HSBC Με τον χαρακτηριστικÞ τίτλο «Η ζωή στην αργή λωρίδα», οι αναλυτέσ τησ HSBC θέτουν στο µικροσκÞπιο την πορεία των ευρωπαϊκών µετοχών για το 2015. Σύµφωνα µε τουσ αναλυτέσ τησ βρετανικήσ τράπεζασ δύο είναι οι παράγοντεσ που αναµένεται να στηρίξουν τα κέρδη στα ευρωπαϊκά χρηµατιστήρια παρά την ασθενή ανάπτυξη τησ οικονοµίασ στην Ευρώπη. Ο πρώτοσ είναι η ενίσχυση του δολαρίου και ο δεύτεροσ οι αδύναµεσ τιµέσ στα εµπορεύµατα. Οι οικονοµολÞγοι του οίκου διατυπώνουν την προτίµησή τουσ στισ µετοχέσ µε υψηλέσ αποδÞσεισ καθώσ εκτιµούν Þτι µπορεί να αποδειχθούν περισσÞτερο ανθεκτικέσ στο ενδεχÞµενο απρÞσµενων γεγονÞτων. Η HSBC µε βάση το οικονοµικÞ τησ µοντέλο αναµένει αύξηση κερδών 13% στην Ευρώπη µε τουσ επενδυτέσ ωστÞσο να διατυπώνουν τισ επιφυλάξεισ τουσ αναφορικά µε τη συγκεκριµένη εκτίµηση λÞγω των ισχνών σηµαδιών ανάπτυξησ. Παρά το γεγονÞσ Þτι το βασικÞ σενάριο τησ τράπεζασ παραµένει θετικÞ ωστÞσο επισηµαίνεται Þτι υπάρχει ένασ µεγάλοσ βαθµÞσ κινδύνου για τη νέα χρονιά. Οι θετικέσ εκτιµήσεισ κάνουν λÞγο για µια ήπια οικονοµική ανάκαµψη, για ενίσχυση του δολαρίου και αύξηση κερδών τησ τάξεωσ του 10 µε 15%. Τα παραπάνω ωστÞσο συνιστούν µÞνο τη µια πλευρά τησ ιστορίεσ. Οι κίνδυνοι που συνοδεύουν αυτέσ τισ προβλέψεισ έγκεινται στη νοµισµατική διελκυστίνδα ανάµεσα στη Fed, την ΕΚΤ και την Τράπεζα τησ Ιαπωνίασ, στην απÞτοµη πτώση στην τιµή του πετρελαίου και των βασικών αγαθών, στην επιβράδυνση τησ οικονοµίασ τησ Κίνασ και στη στασιµÞτητα στην Ευρώπη. Ùλοι οι παραπάνω παράγοντεσ κρύβουν το ενδεχÞµενο να επηρεάσουν αρνητικά τουσ επενδυτέσ µετοχών. Για το λÞγο αυτÞ οι οικονοµολÞγοι τησ βρετανικήσ τράπεζασ προτείνουν την υιοθέτηση µιασ στρατηγικήσ ανθεκτικήσ σε τέτοιου είδουσ σοκ Þπωσ η οι επενδύσεισ σε µετοχέσ µε σύσταση για απÞδοση µεγαλύτερη απÞ εκείνη τησ αγοράσ.

Morgan Stanley Στην άλλη πλευρά του Ατλαντικού εστιάζουν οι αναλυτέσ τησ Morgan Stanley, οι οποίοι προβλέπουν υψηλέσ αποδÞσεισ για τισ αµερικανικέσ µετοχέσ για Τρίτη διαδοχική χρονιά. Συγκεκριµένα αναµένουν Þτι ο δείκτησ S&P 500 θα διαµορφωθεί 10% υψηλÞτερα απÞ τα τρέχοντα επίπεδα στο τέλοσ του 2015. Ο κεντρικÞ πυρήνασ αυτήσ τησ εκτίµησησ εδράζεται στο Þτι βρισκÞµαστε στη µέση µιασ σηµαντικήσ επέκτασησ των ΗΠΑ η οποία µπορεί να διαρκέσει µέχρι και το 2020. Ùσον αφορά τώρα στισ ευρωπαϊκέσ µετοχέσ, οι οικονοµολÞγοι του διεθνούσ οίκου παραµένουν θετικοί παρά το γεγονÞσ Þτι κατά

τουσ τελευταίουσ έξι µήνεσ το επενδυτικÞ κλίµα στισ χρηµαταγορέσ τησ Ευρώπησ παρουσιάζεται αρνητικÞ εξαιτίασ τησ σηµαντικήσ εκροήσ κεφαλαίων. ΩστÞσο, διατηρούν την αισιοδοξία τουσ για το 2015, προβλέποντασ άνοδο του οικονοµικού µοµέντουµ και αύξηση των µετοχικών κερδών κατά 10%. Σύµφωνα µε την Morgan Stanley οι ευµενέστερεσ οικονοµικά συνθήκεσ, οι πρωτοβουλίεσ τησ ΕΚΤ στη χάραξη τησ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ και ένα βελτιωµένο εξωγενέσ περιβάλλον αναµένεται να επιτρέψουν µια µετριοπαθήσ ανάκαµψη στο ΑΕΠ τησ Ευρώπησ το νέο έτοσ και κατά επέκταση στη διαµÞρφωση ενÞσ καλύτερου κλίµατοσ για τισ µετοχέσ.

Goldman Sachs Υπέρ των µετοχών τάσσεται και η Goldman Sachs σε έκθεσή τησ για τισ παγκÞσµιεσ επενδυτικέσ ευκαιρίεσ του νέου έτουσ. Ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ δίνει σύσταση για απÞδοση µεγαλύτερη απÞ εκείνη τησ αγοράσ για τισ µετοχέσ ενώ παράλληλα προτείνει την αποφυγή επενδύσεων σε κρατικά οµÞλογα και σε πάσησ φύσεωσ πιστώσεισ. Επιπλέον, διατυπώνει τη συγκρατηµένη αισιοδοξία τησ για τα εµπορεύµατα. Στην αγορά του συναλλάγµατοσ το δολάριο αναµένεται να συνεχίσει να πρωταγωνιστεί. Σύµφωνα µε την Goldman Sachs η παγκÞσµια οικονοµία θα αναπτυχθεί µε ρυθµÞσ τησ τάξεωσ του 3,4% το 2015 απÞ 3% το 2014 µε τον πληθωρισµÞ να παραµένει σε χαµηλά επίπεδα κυρίωσ εν µέρει τησ συνεχιζÞµενησ υποχώρησησ στισ τιµέσ των εµπορευµάτων, κάτι που συνεπάγεται την αναµενÞµενη συνέχιση τησ διευκολυντικήσ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ. Το συγκεκριµένο πλαίσιο σύµφωνα µε τουσ οικονοµολÞγουσ του διεθνούσ οίκου µπορεί να ευνοήσει τισ τοποθετήσεισ σε επιλογέσ που θεωρούνται ριψοκίνδυνεσ Þπωσ οι µετοχέσ. Η Goldman Sachs Þπωσ και η πλειοψηφία των επενδυτικών οίκων, θεωρεί Þτι υπάρχουν σηµαντικέσ πιθανÞτητεσ η ΕΚΤ να προχωρήσει στην υιοθέτηση ποσοτικήσ χαλάρωσησ το α’ εξάµηνο του 2015. Τα χαµηλά επίπεδα του πληθωρισµού και η απειλή του αποπληθωρισµού στην Ευρωζώνη θα αποτελέσουν τισ βασικέσ αίτιεσ για τισ οποίεσ οι κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ ανά την υφήλιο θα παραµείνουν ιδιαίτερα συγκρατηµένεσ στην πολιτική που θα ακολουθήσουν Þσον αφορά στα επιτÞκια. Ùλα τα παραπάνω αποτελούν µια πρώτη γεύση απÞ τι αναµένεται να φέρει το 2015 στισ διεθνείσ και ευρωπαϊκέσ αγορέσ. Αποµένει λοιπÞν µÞνο ο χρÞνοσ για να δείξει εάν οι εκτιµήσεισ των επενδυτικών οίκων και των παγκÞσµιων οικονοµικών αναλυτών είτε επαληθευτούν είτε διαψευστούν. ¶ËÁ‹: ∆Ô ¶ÚÒÙÔ £¤Ì·

∂Í·ÁÔÚ¿ ÙË˜ ∂ÌÔÚÈÎ‹˜ ∆Ú¿Â˙·˜ ·fi ÙËÓ Alpha Bank Στην εξαγορά τησ Εµπορικήσ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου προχώρησε η Alpha Bank Cyprus. Η εξαγορά θα γίνει µε µετοχέσ. Σύµφωνα µε ανακοίνωση «H Alpha Bank Cyprus µετά απÞ απÞφαση του ∆Σ αποφάσισε να εξαγοράσει απÞ εταιρίεσ του οµίλου Alpha Bank A.E. το 100% των µετοχών, που αποτελούν το εκδοµένο µετοχικÞ κεφάλαιο τησ Emporiki Bank Cyprus και ακολούθωσ Þπωσ προχωρήσει στη συγχώνευση τησ

Emporiki Bank Cyprus µε την Alpha Bank Cyprus µέσω τησ απορροφήσεωσ τησ πρώτησ απÞ τη δεύτερη». Ωσ αντάλλαγµα για την απÞκτηση απÞ την Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd του 100% των µετοχών που αποτελούν το εκδοµένο µετοχικÞ κεφάλαιο τησ Emporiki Bank Cyprus Limited, θα προσφερθούν µετοχέσ οι οποίεσ θα εκδοθούν απÞ την Alpha Bank Cyprus. Η ανωτέρω απÞφαση του ∆Σ τησ Alpha Bank

Cyprus τελεί υπÞ την αίρεση ικανοποιήσεωσ ορισµένων προϋποθέσεων, περιλαµβανοµένων τησ εγκρίσεωσ τησ προτεινÞµενησ εξαγοράσ και συγχωνεύσεωσ απÞ την Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου και την επικύρωση τησ συγχωνεύσεωσ απÞ τα κυπριακά δικαστήρια. Η Alpha έχει µερίδιο περίπου 4,5% στισ καταθέσεισ και 5,5% στα δάνεια του εγχώριου τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com

∏ ¢‡ÛË ¤ÊÙÂÈ ÛÂ Î·Ù¿ıÏÈ„Ë Για κάποιουσ ανθρώπουσ το µέλλον θα είναι πάντα πίσω τουσ. Λίγεσ φορέσ, ωστÞσο, έχει αυτή η θλίψη καλύψει το µεγαλύτερο µέροσ του δυτικού κÞσµου την ίδια στιγµή. ΑκÞµη και σε εκείνεσ τισ σύντοµεσ στιγµέσ – κατά τον στασιµοπληθωρισµÞ τησ δεκαετίασ του 70 για παράδειγµα – η θλίψη εξασθένιζε µε την κρίση. Σύµφωνα µε άρθρο που δηµοσίευσε το Θέµα, η σηµερινή απαισιοδοξία είναι περισσÞτερο ανησυχητική για δύο λÞγουσ. Πρώτον, η οικονοµολογία δεν την εξηγεί πλήρωσ. Στισ ΗΠΑ, που διανύουν το πέµπτο έτοσ τησ ανάκαµψησ, το ποσοστÞ Þσων πιστεύουν πωσ τα παιδιά τουσ θα ζήσουν χειρÞτερα απÞ τουσ ίδιουσ είναι ίδιο µε τησ στάσιµησ Ιταλίασ. Αυτή η τάση προϋπάρχει τησ κατάρρευσησ του 2008. ∆εύτερον, η αύξηση τησ απαισιοδοξίασ συµπίπτει µε την νεÞτερη τεχνολογική επανάσταση τησ δύσησ. Σπάνια έχει υπάρξει η προσωπική ελευθερία, η βασική αξία τησ δύσησ, περισσÞτερο απεριÞριστη. Παρ’ Þλα αυτά η θλίψη µασ φαίνεται να βαθαίνει. Έχει αρχίσει η δύση να χάνει την επαφή τησ µε την πραγµατικÞτητα; Είναι µεγάλοσ πειρασµÞσ να πούµε ναι. Ο µέσοσ «δυτικÞσ» ζει πολύ περισσÞτερο, επηρεάζεται πολύ λιγÞτερο απÞ πολέµουσ και έχει πολύ περισσÞτερεσ επιλογέσ σε σχέση µε οποιονδήποτε στην ανθρώπινη ιστορία. Το να είναι κανείσ ζωντανÞσ και ελεύθεροσ θα έπρεπε να είναι ένα προνÞµιο άξιο ευτυχίασ. Ίσωσ να είµαστε τÞσο ιστορικά αδαείσ που δεν εκτιµούµε Þσα έχουµε. Ίσωσ κάτι βαθύτερο, Þπωσ η συνεχήσ διάσπαση προσοχήσ απÞ την τεχνολογία ίσωσ, έχει αλλάξει τÞσο τη νευρική µασ καλωδίωση, που είναι πλέον πολύ δυσκολÞτερο να εκτιµήσουµε Þσα έχουµε κάτω απÞ τη µύτη µασ. Ή ίσωσ µασ εντυπωσιάζει τÞσο λίγο η ποιÞτητα τησ σηµερινήσ δηµÞσιασ ζωήσ, που υποφέρουµε απÞ µια θλίψη που δε θα µπορούσε παρά να προέρχεται απÞ την αυτογνωσία. Ùλα αυτά είναι είδη κατάθλιψησ. Κάθε ένα, µε τον έναν ή τον άλλο τρÞπο, έχουν προταθεί ωσ εξήγηση για τη θλίψη τησ δύσησ. Κανένα δε φαίνεται να είναι η σωστή διάγνωση. Μια πιο πιθανή θεωρία είναι το άγχοσ µασ για την άνοδο των υπολοίπων. Ανάµεσα στισ πολλέσ έρευνεσ για τισ παγκÞσµιεσ συµπεριφορέσ, είναι εντυπωσιακÞ πÞσο πιο αισιÞδοξοι είναι οι Ασιάτεσ, οι Λατινοαµερικάνοι και οι Αφρικανοί σε σχέση µε τουσ ανθρώπουσ τησ δύσησ. Είναι λογικÞ άνθρωποι στην Κίνα, την Ινδία και αλλού, να

βλέπουν το µέλλον των παιδιών τουσ πιο φωτεινÞ. Πώσ θα µπορούσε να είναι διαφορετικά; Οι περισσÞτεροι άνθρωποι του αναπτυσσÞµενου κÞσµου ξεκινούν απÞ βάσεισ τÞσο χαµηλέσ, που µÞνο µια καταστροφή θα µπορούσε να εµποδίσει την άνοδο του ζωτικού επιπέδου. Ùµωσ θα ήταν υπερβολή να εξηγήσουµε µε αυτÞν τον τρÞπο την απαισιοδοξία τησ δύσησ. Μια πιο παγκοσµιοποιηµένη οικονοµία θα πρέπει να έχει Þφελοσ για Þλουσ. Επίσησ, θα έπρεπε να είναι κολακευτικÞ. Ο κÞσµοσ σήµερα προσπαθεί να ακολουθήσει το παράδειγµα τησ δύσησ. Πέραν του ρώσου προέδρου Βλαντίµιρ Πούτιν και των κοµµουνιστών τησ Κίνασ, δεν υπάρχει ιδεολογικÞσ αντίπαλοσ του δηµοκρατικού καπιταλισµού. ΑκÞµη και η Κούβα κάνει καθυστερηµένα βήµατα στισ µύτεσ των ποδιών για να επιστρέψει απÞ το «κρύο». Ποιο είναι τÞτε το πρÞβληµα στη δύση; Η απάντηση είναι εξαπατητικά απλή. ΓινÞµαστε γηραιÞτεροι. Σε οικονοµικούσ Þρουσ, αυτÞ σηµαίνει την κοσµική στασιµÞτητα. Η Ιαπωνία «γκριζάρει» ταχύτερα απÞ τουσ υπÞλοιπουσ – η οικονοµική τησ ανάπτυξη έχει βραδύτερουσ ρυθµούσ για µεγαλύτερο διάστηµα απÞ οποιαδήποτε ανεπτυγµένη χώρα. ΩστÞσο είναι θέµα διαβάθµισησ. Ùσο γηραιÞτεροι γινÞµαστε, τÞσο λιγÞτερο αποταµιεύουµε. Κι Þσο λιγÞτερο

αποταµιεύουµε, τÞσο λιγÞτερο επενδύουµε. Και Þσο λιγÞτερο επενδύουµε, τÞσο λιγÞτερο αναπτυσσÞµαστε. Η σύγχρονη τεχνολογία θα έπρεπε να δώσει την απάντηση. Ζούµε περισσÞτερο, και άρα θα έπρεπε να δουλεύουµε και για περισσÞτερο. ΩστÞσο, η πολιτική αποτελεί εµπÞδιο σε αυτÞ. Ùσο λιγÞτερο αναπτυσσÞµαστε, τÞσο περισσÞτερο τσακωνÞµαστε για τουσ προϋπολογισµούσ. ΑπÞ την Ισπανία έωσ τον Καναδά, οι γηραιÞτεροι είναι αυτοί που έχουν το πάνω χέρι στουσ δηµοσιονοµικούσ πολέµουσ. Η Γαλλία έχει το µεγαλύτερο ποσοστÞ γεννήσεων σε σχέση µε τισ περισσÞτερεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ. ΩστÞσο, αφιερώνει περισσÞτερο απÞ το µισÞ των πÞρων τησ στουσ γηραιÞτερουσ. Ένασ απÞ τουσ λÞγουσ που ο Φρανσουά Ολλάντ εκλέχθηκε πρÞεδροσ ήταν γιατί υποσχέθηκε να µεταφέρει το Þριο συνταξιοδÞτησησ στη Γαλλία απÞ τα 60 στα 62 χρÞνια. Στο Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Τζορτζ Ùσµπορν, έχει αποκλείσει εντελών τισ κρατικέσ συντάξεισ απÞ το κεφάλαιο των κοινωνικών δαπανών. Στισ Ηνωµένεσ Πολιτείεσ, η ιατρική κάλυψη και η κοινωνική ασφάλιση καταναλώνουν Þλο και µεγαλύτερο κοµµάτι του οµοσπονδιακού προϋπολογισµού κάθε χρÞνο. Κανένα κÞµµα δεν τολµά να αγγίξει

την ηλικία συνταξιοδÞτησησ – η οποία έχει οριστεί να αυξηθεί µε εξαιρετικά αργÞ ρυθµÞ απÞ το σηµερινÞ επίπεδο των 65 ετών. Ùσο καλύτερα τα πηγαίνει το «γκρίζο λÞµπυ», τÞσο ζηµιώνει το µέλλον µασ. ΑυτÞ, µε τη σειρά του, έχει, ωσ συνήθωσ, αρνητική επίδραση στην πολιτική. Πρακτικά, σηµαίνει την απÞδοση φταιξίµατοσ στουσ µετανάστεσ. Μία απÞ τισ κύριεσ ροπέσ του Tea Party, του National Front στη Γαλλία και του Independence στο Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, είναι να αναζητούν αποδιοποµπαίουσ τράγουσ. Κανένα εξ’ αυτών δε φαίνεται πιθανÞ να αναλάβει άµεση εξουσία. Λειτουργούν Þµωσ ωσ εµπÞδιο για αυτούσ που θα µπορούσαν να αλλάξουν τη σχέση εργατικού δυναµικού-συνταξιούχων. Ένα σηµαντικÞ κεφάλαιο τησ λύσησ βρίσκεται στην ώθηση τησ µετανάστευσησ. Η εµπÞδιση αυτήσ είναι επίσησ κύριοσ στÞχοσ τησ αντι-πολιτικήσ αντίδρασησ. Είναι και αυτÞ ένα ακÞµη τίµηµα τησ δυτικήσ γεροντοκρατίασ. Υπάρχουν και άλλεσ συνέπειεσ πέραν των δηµοσιονοµικών. Η Αλφρέντ Σοβί, ο γάλλοσ φιλÞσοφοσ που εφηύρε τον Þρο «τρίτοσ κÞσµοσ», φοβÞταν πωσ η δύση θα µετατρεπÞταν σε «µια κοινωνία γερÞντων, ζώντων σε παλαιά σπίτια και αναµασώντων παλαιέσ ιδέεσ». Ίσωσ υπάρχει µια αλήθεια σε αυτÞ. Ùσο ωραίο κι αν είναι να παρακολουθεί κανείσ τουσ Rolling Stones στη σκηνή, δεν µπορεί να αρνηθεί κανείσ πωσ οι δηµιουργικά τουσ χρÞνια έχουν τελειώσει. Η ακολουθία τουσ, ωστÞσο – οι τησ γενιάσ του 50 – παίρνουν ακÞµη αυτÞ που θέλουν. Στο απÞγειο τησ καριέρασ του Μικ Τζάγκερ, αυτÞ σήµαινε την επανάσταση ενάντια στα παλιά ήθη. Σήµερα αυτÞ σηµαίνει την προστασία των φωλιών για τη σύνταξη. Φυσικά, δεν είναι κάθε συνταξιούχοσ σε καλή κατάσταση – η αυξανÞµενη ανισÞτητα επηρεάζει Þλεσ τισ ηλικιακέσ κατηγορίεσ. Ωσ σύνολο Þµωσ, η γενιά του 50 κερδίζει απÞ τη µέρα που γεννήθηκε. Και φαίνεται Þτι θα διατηρήσει το ρεκÞρ µέχρι τη µέρα που θα πεθάνει. Οι γενιέσ µετά απÞ αυτήν µπορεί να µην είναι τÞσο τυχερέσ. Οι δηµοσκοπήσεισ δείχνουν πωσ οι γηραιÞτεροι ανησυχούν για το µέλλον Þσο και οι υπÞλοιπεσ ηλικιακέσ κατηγορίεσ. Ίσωσ αυτÞ να έχει µια δÞση ενοχήσ. ∆εν υπάρχει κάποια ψυχική διαταραχή εδώ. Εάν η δύση σαν σύνολο πιστεύει πωσ οι καλύτερεσ µέρεσ τησ έχουν περάσει, θα πρέπει να σχετίζεται µε το γεγονÞσ πωσ για πάρα πολλούσ αυτÞ είναι κυριολεκτικά αλήθεια.

∏ °ÂÚÌ·Ó›· ¤¯ÂÈ ·Ó¿ÁÎË ·fi ÌÂÙ·Ó¿ÛÙÂ˜ Ο πρÞεδροσ τησ Οµοσπονδίασ Γερµανικών Βιοµηχανιών (BDI) Ούλριχ Γκρίλο εκτίµησε Þτι η χώρα του θα πρέπει να υποδεχθεί περισσÞτερουσ µετανάστεσ, την ώρα που εντείνεται στη Γερµανία ένα κύµα αντιισλαµικών διαδηλώσεων. «Είµαστε εδώ και καιρÞ µια χώρα µετανάστευσησ και πρέπει να παραµείνουµε», δήλωσε ο Γκρίλο σε συνέντευξή του στο ΓερµανικÞ Πρακτορείο. «Ωσ χώρα που ευηµερεί και επίσησ απÞ χριστιανική αγάπη για τον πλησίον, η χώρα µασ θα πρέπει να µπορέσει να υποδεχθεί περισσÞτερουσ µετανάστεσ», πρÞσθεσε. «Λαµβάνω ξεκάθαρεσ αποστάσεισ απÞ τουσ νεοναζί και τουσ ρατσιστέσ που συγκεντρώνονται στη ∆ρέσδη και αλλού», υπογράµµισε ο Γκρίλο. Περίπου 17.500 άνθρωποι διαδήλωσαν την ∆ευτέρα στη

∆ρέσδη, στην ανατολική Γερµανία, για να καταγγείλουν τον εξισλαµισµÞ, Þπωσ λένε, τησ Γερµανίασ. Ήταν η δέκατη φορά που πραγµατοποιούνταν µια τέτοια διαδήλωση, Þµωσ ποτέ έωσ τώρα δεν είχε συγκεντρώσει τÞσο µεγάλο αριθµÞ διαδηλωτών. Για την επÞµενη ∆ευτέρα δεν έχει προγραµµατιστεί κάποια κινητοποίηση. Οι διαδηλώσεισ αυτέσ έχουν προκαλέσει έντονεσ αντιδράσεισ στη Γερµανία, κυρίωσ µεταξύ των πολιτικών, συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ και τησ καγκελαρίου Άγγελασ Μέρκελ, ενώ έχουν ωθήσει επίσησ πολλούσ αντιδιαδηλωτέσ στουσ δρÞµουσ. Την ∆ευτέρα το βράδυ σε Þλη τη Γερµανία συγκεντρώθηκε µεγαλύτεροσ αριθµÞσ υπέρµαχων των µεταναστών απ’ Þ,τι οι αντίπαλοί τουσ. Στισ «διαδηλώσεισ τησ ∆ευτέρασ»

συµµετείχαν κυρίωσ Þσοι φοβούνται την ενδεχÞµενη αύξηση των ισλαµιστών στην Γερµανία µε τη µαζική εισροή µεταναστών απÞ τη Συρία, το Αφγανιστάν και το Ιράκ. «Πρέπει να αντιταχθούµε σε Þλεσ τισ µορφέσ ξενοφοβίασ», επεσήµανε ο επικεφαλήσ τησ BDI, στην οποία συµµετέχουν περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 100.000 εταιρείεσ. Ο ίδιοσ υπενθύµισε Þτι η Γερµανία, ο πληθυσµÞσ τησ οποίασ γερνάει, έχει ανάγκη απÞ ξένουσ εξειδικευµένουσ εργάτεσ. «Εξαιτίασ τησ δηµογραφικήσ εξέλιξησ, µε τη µετανάστευση διασφαλίζουµε την ανάπτυξη και την ευηµερία», επεσήµανε. Το 2013 στη Γερµανία ζούσαν περίπου 7,6 εκατοµµύρια αλλοδαποί σε σύνολο πληθυσµού 81 εκατοµµυρίων, ένα ποσοστÞ ρεκÞρ απÞ τÞτε που ξεκίνησαν να τηρούνται στατιστικά στοιχεία.

√È Î·Ù¿ÏÏËÏÔÈ Û˘ÓÂÚÁ¿ÙÂ˜ «ÎÏÂÈ‰›» ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ÎÂÚ‰ÔÊÔÚ›· Οι εταιρείεσ που επιθυµούν να επενδύσουν σε αναπτυσσÞµενεσ αγορέσ ορθά αφιερώνουν σηµαντικÞ χρÞνο και χρήµα στην ιεράρχηση τÞσο των αγορών Þπου θα επεκταθούν Þσο και των οµάδων καταναλωτών στισ οποίεσ θα επικεντρωθούν. ΩστÞσο, σύµφωνα µε νέα έκθεση τησ PwC, απαραίτητη προϋπÞθεση για την επιτυχία και την ανάπτυξη µιασ εταιρείασ αποτελεί η επιλογή του κατάλληλου τοπικού συνεργάτη που θα την καθοδηγήσει ώστε ν’ αντιµετωπίσει τισ δυσκολίεσ κάθε αγοράσ.

Η έκθεση µε τίτλο «Presence to profitability», που εκπονήθηκε απÞ το Κέντρο ΑναπτυσσÞµενων Αγορών τησ PwC, προσδιορίζει τα βήµατα που πρέπει να ακολουθήσουν οι εταιρείεσ αναπτυγµένων χωρών ώστε να αξιοποιήσουν τισ ευκαιρίεσ για µια κερδοφÞρα πορεία. Σηµαντική είναι η διαπίστωση Þτι οι αναπτυσσÞµενεσ αγορέσ εξελίσσονται συνεχώσ, και ωσ εκ τούτου απαιτείται µια ευέλικτη στρατηγική που θα ανταποκρίνεται στο σηµερινÞ περιβάλλον αλλά και στισ νέεσ ευκαιρίεσ του αύριο. Η εξεύρεση του κατάλληλου τοπικού συνερ-

γάτη αποτελεί σηµαντικÞ πρώτο βήµα για µια επιτυχηµένη στρατηγική εισÞδου σε αναπτυσσÞµενεσ αγορέσ. Η εµπεριστατωµένη αξιολÞγηση ενÞσ πιθανού συνεργάτη και η πλήρησ κατανÞηση και τήρηση των τοπικών και εθνικών κανονισµών και εµπορικών συµβάσεων αποτελεί ίσωσ µια επίπονη διαδικασία. ΩστÞσο, µια λανθασµένη κίνηση είναι αυτή που θα κάνει τη διαφορά µεταξύ τησ κερδοφορίασ και τησ αποχώρησησ απÞ την αγορά µε σοβαρέσ απώλειεσ για το Þνοµα και την κερδοφορία τησ εταιρείασ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

financialmirror.com | ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7

∏ ÂÓ‰Â¯fiÌÂÓË ÂÈÎÚ¿ÙËÛË ™Àƒπ∑∞ ÊÔ‚›˙ÂÈ ÙÔ˘˜ ÂÈ¯ÂÈÚËÌ·Ù›Â˜ ΦÞβουσ Þτι σε µία ενδεχÞµενη οικονοµική αναταραχή λÞγω επικράτησησ του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ σε περίπτωση που προκηρυχθούν πρÞωρεσ εκλογέσ, η επιχειρηµατική ανάπτυξη και οι ξένεσ επενδύσεισ θα «παγώσουν», εκφράζουν στη Wall Street Journal επιχειρηµατικά στελέχη και επενδυτέσ, σύµφωνα µε το Πρώτο Θέµα. Στελέχη τησ εγχώριασ επιχειρηµατικήσ σκηνήσ ανησυχούν πωσ η διενέργεια εθνικών εκλογών, στην περίπτωση δεν εκλεγεί ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ενδέχεται να φέρει στην εξουσία το αντιεπιχειρηµατικÞ κÞµµα τησ αξιωµατικήσ αντιπολίτευσησ, τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, ο οποίοσ θέλει να απορρίψει το πακέτο διάσωσησ τησ χώρασ. Η προοπτική µιασ νίκησ του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δηµιουργεί προβληµατισµÞ σε επιχειρηµατίεσ Þπωσ ο ΘεÞδωροσ Σιετήσ, chief operating officer τησ ΕΛΤΕΧ Άνεµοσ. «Η οικονοµία τησ Ελλάδασ βρίσκεται σε κρίσιµο σταυροδρÞµι», δήλωσε στην WSJ. «Σε µια περίοδο που θα πρέπει να έχουµε επενδύσεισ και η χώρα θα πρέπει να κινείται ταχύτατα µπροστά, η κατάσταση επιβραδύνεται». Η ΕΛΤΕΧ Άνεµοσ ήταν η πρώτη εταιρεία που έκανε εισαγωγή στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών απÞ τÞτε που ξέσπασε η κρίση, πριν απÞ πέντε χρÞνια. η εισαγωγή θεωρήθηκε απÞ πολλούσ διεθνείσ επενδυτέσ ωσ ένδειξη Þτι η Ελλάδα επέστρεφε σιγά-σιγά στην οµαλÞτητα. Η ΕΛΤΕΧ Άνεµοσ άντλησε περίπου 35 εκ. ευρώ τον Ιούλιο, στο πλαίσιο ενÞσ φιλÞδοξου σχεδίου ύψουσ 200 εκ. ευρώ για τη δηµιουργία αιολικών πάρκων στην Ελλάδα. Το σχέδιο αυτÞ Þµωσ έχει µπει «στον πάγο». «Υπάρχουν αρκετέσ αποφάσεισ που θα είχαµε λάβει µέχρι τώρα, Þµωσ περιµένουµε», σηµείωσε. Kαθυστερήσεισ Þµωσ παρατηρούνται και στο µέτωπο των αποκρατικοποιήσεων. ∆υο ιδιωτικοποιήσεισ που σχεδιάζονταν για αυτÞν τον µήνα - το αεροδρÞµιο τησ Κρήτησ και η ∆ΕΗ- είναι πιθανÞ να πάνε πίσω αρκετέσ εβδοµάδεσ, σύµ-

φωνα µε αξιωµατούχουσ. Μια άλλη ιδιωτικοποίηση, τουριστικού ακινήτου που ανήκε στην κυβέρνηση και το οποίο πωλήθηκε νωρίτερα φέτοσ, καθυστερεί αναµένοντασ την τελική έγκριση, ανέφερε επιχειρηµατίασ που γνωρίζει τη συµφωνία. Εν τω µεταξύ, παράγοντεσ του τουρισµού προειδοποιούν Þτι τα early bookings για την τουριστική περίοδο του επÞµενου έτουσ -που συνήθωσ γίνονται τον ∆εκέµβριοέχουν επίσησ «παγώσει». Ùπωσ ο κ. Σιετήσ και άλλοι, ο επιχειρηµατίασ Νίκοσ Μανεσιώτησ ανησυχεί και αυτÞσ. Είναι ιδιοκτήτησ µιασ οικογενειακήσ εισαγωγικήσ εταιρείασ, την οποία ίδρυσε ο παπ-

πούσ του το 1919. ΑπÞ την ίδρυσή τησ, η εταιρεία, που εδρεύει στον Πειραιά, κατάφερε να αντέξει πολέµουσ, κατοχέσ, τραπεζικέσ κρίσεισ και αµέτρητεσ αλλαγέσ κυβερνήσεων. Η τελευταία δυσκολία που είχε να αντιµετωπίσει ήταν το πιστωτικÞ πρÞβληµα που δηµιουργήθηκε απÞ την κρίση τησ ευρωζώνησ στα µέσα του 2012. Με το µέλλον τησ Ελλάδασ στην ευρωζώνη να τίθεται εν αµφιβÞλω, πολλοί ξένοι προµηθευτέσ έκοψαν την πίστωση και ζητούσαν µÞνο µετρητά απÞ εταιρείεσ Þπωσ αυτή του κ. Μανεσιώτη. Αναµένοντασ παρÞµοια δυσκολία, ο κ. Μανεσιώτησ έχει αρχίσει να περιορίζει τουσ Þρουσ πίστωσησ που παρέχει σε ορισµένουσ πελάτεσ του στην Ελλάδα. «Τουσ τελευταίουσ µήνεσ δίνω σε ορισµένουσ πελάτεσ πίστωση 40-45 ηµερών, έναντι των 60 ηµερών. Πρέπει να είµαστε προσεκτικοί», ανέφερε. Επιφυλακτικοί είναι και οι ξένοι επενδυτέσ. ΑυτÞν τον µήνα, δεκάδεσ κορυφαίοι fund managers συγκεντρώθηκαν στο Metropolitan Club τησ Νέασ ΥÞρκησ στο πλαίσιο συνεδρίου για τισ επενδύσεισ στην Ελλάδα. Προσφέρονταν τα πάντα, απÞ προβληµατικά ενεργητικά, µέχρι επενδύσεισ σε real-estate, µέχρι ναυτιλιακά χαρτοφυλάκια. Η ζήτηση Þµωσ ήταν ελάχιστη. Αντιθέτωσ, οι επενδυτέσ παραµένουν στο περιθώριο, σύµφωνα µε κυβερνητικÞ αξιωµατούχο που βρέθηκε στο συνέδριο. Λίγουσ µήνεσ πριν, το turnaround τησ Ελλάδασ φαίνονταν να σηµατοδοτεί καλύτερεσ ηµέρεσ. «Τώρα υπάρχει µια αίσθηση αναµονήσ, και διαισθάνοµαι µια αντιστροφή του κλίµατοσ» σηµείωσε ο ανώτατοσ κυβερνητικÞσ αξιωµατούχοσ, ο οποίοσ παρακολουθεί τισ ξένεσ επενδύσεισ στην Ελλάδα. «Ο κÞσµοσ δεν φεύγει, εξακολουθούν να διαπραγµατεύονται συµβÞλαια. Εξακολουθούν να πληρώνουν δικηγÞρουσ και µηχανισµούσ για να εξετάσουν projects. Ùµωσ δεν είναι έτοιµοι ακÞµα να υπογράψουν την επιταγή», σηµείωσε.

™Ô‚·Ú¤˜ ·ÚÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈÂ˜ ·fi ÙÔ ƒˆÛÈÎfi ÂÌ¿ÚÁÎÔ Σοβαρέσ παρενέργειεσ στισ ελληνικέσ εξαγωγέσ αλλά και στον τουριστικÞ κλάδο τησ Ελλάδασ προκαλούν η κρίση τησ ρώσικησ οικονοµίασ αλλά και οι πολιτικέσ εξελίξεισ. Η παρατεταµένη πτώση του ρώσικου νοµίσµατοσ έναντι του ευρώ και η µείωση τησ αγοραστικήσ δύναµησ των Ρώσων καταναλωτών πλήττει κυρίωσ τισ πωλήσεισ των εισαγÞµενων προϊÞντων, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των ελληνικών, καθώσ έχουν ακριβύνει έωσ και 80% σε σχέση µε ένα χρÞνο πριν. Ανησυχία επικρατεί και στουσ παράγοντεσ του ελληνικού τουρισµού, οι οποίοι εκφράζουν φÞβουσ για ανακοπή του τουριστικού «ρεύµατοσ» απÞ τη Ρωσία λÞγω τησ αύξησησ του κÞστουσ των τουριστικών πακέτων αλλά και του αρνητικού κλίµατοσ που επικρατεί στην ελληνική αγορά το τελευταίο διάστηµα. Οι τιµέσ των ελληνικών προϊÞντων στη ΜÞσχα έχουν αυξηθεί ήδη έωσ και 100%. Με ιδιαίτερη αγωνία παρακολουθούν την πορεία τησ ρωσικήσ οικονοµίασ οι Έλληνεσ εξαγωγείσ, οι οποίοι ανησυχούν έντονα για τισ επιπτώσεισ που µπορεί να προκαλέσει στισ πωλήσεισ τουσ. Ύστερα απÞ τα τεράστια προβλήµατα που προκάλεσε το εµπάργκο τησ Ρωσίασ σε µια µεγάλη γκάµα ευρωπαϊκών προϊÞντων, ωσ «αντίποινα» στισ κυρώσεισ που επέβαλε η ∆ύση, οι εξαγωγικέσ επιχειρήσεισ τησ Ελλάδασ βρίσκονται αντιµέτωπεσ µε τη δραστική συρρίκνωση τησ αγοραστικήσ δύναµησ των Ρώσων καταναλωτών και τη ραγδαία αύξηση των τιµών στα προϊÞντα τουσ. Υπολογίζεται πωσ οι τιµέσ των ελληνικών προϊÞντων έχουν αυξηθεί έωσ και 80% τον τελευταίο χρÞνο, υπονοµεύοντασ την ανταγωνιστικÞτητά τουσ σε σχέση µε τα εγχώρια. Ùπωσ ανέφερε στην «Ηµερήσια» ο Ηλίασ Θανασάσ, ΓενικÞσ Σύµβουλοσ του Γραφείου Οικονοµικών και Εµπορικών Υποθέσεων τησ ελληνικήσ πρεσβείασ στη ΜÞσχα είναι πολύ πιθανÞν το επÞµενο διάστηµα οι πωλήσεισ των ελληνικών προϊÞντων και κυρίωσ τα φρούτα και τα λαχανικά να µειωθούν περαιτέρω, καθώσ οι Ρώσοι καταναλωτέσ θα στραφούν σε

φθηνÞτερεσ λύσεισ για να καλύψουν τισ ανάγκεσ τουσ. Επιπλέον, ο κ. Θανασάσ εκτιµά Þτι είναι πολύ πιθανÞν και οι εµπορικοί αντιπρÞσωποι και εισαγωγείσ των ελληνικών προϊÞντων να επανεξετάσουν τη συνεργασία τουσ µε τισ ελληνικέσ επιχειρήσεισ ή και να την διακÞψουν εντελώσ εξαιτίασ των οικονοµικών δυσκολιών που υπάρχουν. Πιέσεισ αναµένεται να δεχθούν και οι εξαγωγέσ ελληνικήσ γούνασ, οι οποίεσ καθίστανται πλέον πολύ πιο ακριβέσ για το ρώσικα νοικοκυριά. Το πλήγµα για τον κλάδο, εάν δεν αλλάξει κάτι άµεσα θα είναι βαρύ, καθώσ η Ρωσία είναι η µεγαλύτερη αγορά τησ ελληνικήσ γούνασ. Μεγαλύτεροσ είναι ο προβληµατισµÞσ για τισ ελληνικέσ επιχειρήσεισ που έχουν αυτÞνοµη παρουσία και διατηρούν µονάδεσ παραγωγήσ. Κάποιεσ µάλιστα, παρÞτι µέχρι στιγµήσ δηλώνουν πωσ τηρούν στάση αναµονήσ και δεν προτίθεται να λάβουν δραστικά µέτρα, παραδέχονται Þτι είναι έτοιµεσ να εξετάσουν εναλλακτικέσ λύσεισ, εφÞσον τα πραγµατα χειροτερέψουν. Ο εµπορικÞσ διευθυντήσ τησ Kleemann, Λάζαροσ ΑσβεστÞπουλοσ µιλώντασ στην «Η» επισηµαίνει Þτι η εταιρεία του παρακολουθεί απÞ πολύ στενά τα δρώµενα στη Ρωσία, ενώ δεν κρύβει Þτι η αβεβαιÞτητα σχετικά µε την επÞµενη ηµέρα δηµιουργεί ανασφάλεια. Σύµφωνα µε τον κ. ΑσβεστÞπουλο, ο µεγαλύτεροσ κίνδυνοσ που υπάρχει στην παρούσα φάση είναι να αποφασισθεί µια αύξηση των δασµών στα εισαγÞµενα προϊÞντα, κάτι που θα ανέβαζε περαιτέρω το κÞστοσ τουσ, καθιστώντασ επιτακτική την ριζική αναθεώρηση τησ στρατηγικήσ τησ. Με ψυχραιµία αντιµετωπίζει την επιδείνωση τησ κατάστασησ στην ρώσικη αγορά και η διοίκηση τησ Coca- Cola HBC, η οποία λειτουργεί 11 εργοστάσια και 71 κέντρα διανοµήσ στη χώρα. Πηγέσ που είναι κοντά στη διοίκηση τησ εταιρείασ, αναφέρουν πωσ η εταιρεία έχει βρεθεί αντιµέτωπη µε ανάλογεσ και χειρÞτερεσ καταστάσεισ στο παρελθÞν -Þπωσ το 1998 Þταν πτώχευσε η χώρα αλλά και το 2008, Þταν η ρώσικη οικονοµία βρέθηκε σε εξίσου δύσκολη θέση, και ωσ εκ τούτου έχει

N¤Ô ÎfiÌÌ· ·fi ÙÔÓ °ÈÒÚÁÔ ¶··Ó‰Ú¤Ô˘ Στισ 30 ∆εκεµβρίου, δηλαδή την εποµένη τησ τελευταίασ ψηφοφορίασ για την εκλογή Προέδρου τησ Ελληνικήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, προτίθεται να ανακοινώσει την ίδρυση του κÞµµατÞσ του ο Γιώργοσ Παπανδρέου. Πάντωσ, ο κ. Παπανδρέου θα στηρίξει την εκλογή Προέδρου στισ εναποµείνασεσ ψηφοφορίεσ. ΣτÞχοσ είναι το νέο κÞµµα να λάβει µέροσ στισ επÞµενεσ βουλευτικέσ εκλογέσ, µε ανθρώπουσ κοντά στο περιβάλλον του κ. Παπανδρέου να φέρονται να εργάζονται πυρετωδώσ προσ αυτή την κατεύθυνση, καθώσ ο χρÞνοσ για να στηθεί ο σχετικÞσ µηχανισµÞσ είναι ελάχιστοσ.

την πείρα να διαχειριστεί δύσκολεσ καταστάσεισ. Οι ίδιεσ πηγέσ υπογραµµίζουν Þτι η εταιρεία έχει λάβει κάποια µέτρα θωράκισησ των οικονοµικών τησ, κατά τα προηγούµενα τρίµηνα, Þπωσ η µείωση του λειτουργικού κÞστουσ και η ανατίµηση τησ αξίασ των προϊÞντων τησ, προκειµένου να αντισταθµίσει την αρνητική σχέση στισ συναλλαγµατικέσ ισοτιµίεσ, και ξεκαθαρίζουν πωσ η δέσµευσή τησ στην ρώσικη αγορά παραµένει σταθερή. Να σηµειωθεί Þτι το 20% των πωλήσεων τησ Coca-Cola HBC πραγµατοποιείται στην αγορά τησ Ρωσίασ και είναι η µεγαλύτερη εταιρεία ελληνικών συµφερÞντων που δραστηριοποιείται στη χώρα. Να σηµειωθεί Þτι στη ρώσικη επικράτεια σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία τησ ελληνικήσ πρεσβείασ παρουσία έχουν περίπου 70 εταιρείεσ ελληνικών συµφερÞντων. ΕκτÞσ απÞ την Coca-Cola HBC είναι η Frigoglass, µε εργοστάσιο παραγωγήσ στην πÞλη Orel νοτίωσ τησ ΜÞσχασ, η Chipita του γνωστού επιχειρηµατία Σπύρου ΘεοδωρÞπουλου µε εργοστάσιο στην Αγία Πετρούπολη και πολύ µεγάλο αριθµÞ σηµείων πώλησησ, τα Πλαστικά Κρήτησ, η κατασκευαστική Άκτωρ, και οι τράπεζεσ Πειραιώσ και Eurobank (γραφεία αντιπροσωπείασ).

XA Î·È ÂÙÚ¤Ï·ÈÔ ÔÈ ¯ÂÈÚfiÙÂÚÂ˜ ·Ô‰fiÛÂÈ˜ ÙÔ˘ 2014 Στη δεύτερη θέση µε τισ χειρÞτερεσ επιδÞσεισ βρίσκεται το ελληνικÞ χρηµατιστήριο φέτοσ, µÞλισ λίγο χαµηλÞτερα απÞ το πετρέλαιο, το οποίο έχει καταβαραθρωθεί στα χαµλÞτερα επίπεδα τησ τελευταίασ πενταετίασ. Σύµφωνα µε το “χριστουγεννιάτικο δέντρο” τησ Credit Suisse, η απÞδοση του ελληνικού χρηµατιστηρίου είναι αρνητική φέτοσ, ξεπερνώντασ το -31%, ενώ το πετρέλαιο έχει χάσει πάνω απÞ 45%. Ακολουθούν το ασήµι (-19,5%), ο χαλκÞσ (-15,5%), το φυσικÞ αέριο (-11,7%) και το καλαµπÞκι (-10,4%). Στον αντίποδα, τισ εντυπωσιακÞτερεσ αποδÞσεισ φέτοσ προσέφεραν τα συµβÞλαια του καφέ και τησ Κίνασ, καταγράφοντασ κέρδη 47,7% η κάθε µία, ενώ ακολουθούν οι µετοχέσ τησ Ινδίασ, τα πορτογαλικά οµÞλογα και οι µετοχέσ τησ Ινδονησίασ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

24 ∆ΕΚΕΜΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014

8 | ΑΓΟΡΑ | financialmirror.com

™˘ÏÏÂÎÙÈÎ‹ Û˘ÛÎÂ˘·Û›· ÙÔ˘ Chivas Made For Gentlemen Σε ένα πάρτυ ειδικά για τουσ λάτρεισ του γνωστού ουίσκυ Chivas, παρουσιάστηκε το 7Seas Bar στη ΛεµεσÞ, η νέα συλλεκτική συσκευασία Chivas Made For Gentlemen. Το Chivas, το πρώτο ουίσκυ πολυτελείασ, αυτή τη φορά επιλέγει να τιµήσει ένα αγαπηµένο αντρικÞ αξεσουάρ και συνεργάζεται µε την βρετανική εταιρεία ρολογιών Bremont. Ùπωσ µε κάθε συλλεκτική συσκευασία Chivas, πρÞκειται για µοντέρνο και κοµψÞ ντιζάιν και φέτοσ επιλέγει να απεικονίσει κοµµάτια του ρολογιού τονίζοντασ έτσι την πολύπλοκη µηχανική των ρολογιών Bremont. Κατα τη διάρκεια του πάρτυ το Chivas, παρουσίασε στο κοινÞ δύο µοντέρνουσ τζέντλεµεν και νεαρούσ επιχειρηµατίεσ, τον Andrew Michael συνιδρυτή τησ εταιρείασ FUNIFI και τον ΧριστÞφορο Τζιηρτζιηπή ιδρυτή τησ εταιρείασ DIYFUL. Το Chivas εισάγεται και διανέµεται απÞ την Laiko Cosmos Trading.

K·Ù¿ÛÙËÌ· CINNABON ÛÙÔ ∞§º∞ª∂°∞ ∫·„¿ÏÔ˘ Η υπεραγορά ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ στον Κάψαλο υποδέχτηκε και αυτή µε την σειρά τησ το νέο κατάστηµα CINNABON, εµπλουτίζοντασ έτσι την καθηµερινή εµπειρία ψωνίσµατοσ των επισκεπτών τησ. ΑπÞ τισ 11 ∆εκεµβρίου, οι επισκέπτεσ των υπεραγορών ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ Κάψαλου µπορούν να απολαµβάνουν µαζί µε τα ψώνια τουσ και µια µεγάλη ποικιλία των αγαπηµένων ρολών κανέλασ των καταστηµάτων CINNABON, εντÞσ τησ υπεραγοράσ. Τα Cinnabon είναι γνωστά για τα παγκοσµίου φήµησ ρολά κανέλλασ, την µυστική συνταγή τησ κρέµασ επικάλυψησ µε cream-cheese και τη θρυλική κανέλλα Makara ή ρολÞ µε πλούσια γεύση σοκολάτασ, καραµέλασ µε καρύδια ή ποικιλία φρούτων. Γνωρίστε την δελεαστική µυρωδιά κανέλλασ σε κάθε περίσταση και δείτε την λάµψη στα µάτια σασ. Επίσησ στα Cinnabbon σασ περιµένει µια µεγάλη ποικιλία πεντανÞστιµων Cupcakes, τραγανήσ σφολιάτασ κανέλλασ και λαχταριστέσ µπουκίτσεσ ρολών, Cinnabon bites. Οι Υπεραγορέσ ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ είναι η µεγαλύτερη κυπριακή και ταχύτερα αναπτυσσÞµενη αλυσίδα υπεραγορών στη χώρα µε 10 καταστήµατα και 1200 εργαζÞµενουσ.

∞›Ì· ∑ˆ‹˜ ·fi ÙËÓ CNP Cyprialife Μέσα στο πλαίσιο τησ Εταιρικήσ Κοινωνικήσ τησ Ευθύνησ η CNP CYPRIALIFE, διοργάνωσε για δεύτερη φορά φέτοσ αιµοδοσία στα νέα Κεντρικά τησ Γραφεία (Λεωφ. ΑκροπÞλεωσ 17, 2006 ΣτρÞβολοσ, Λευκωσία), σε έναν ειδικά διαµορφωµένο χώρο. Στο κάλεσµα αυτÞ ανταποκρίθηκαν οι άνθρωποι τησ CNP CYPRIALIFE και CNP ΑΣΦΑΛΙΣΤΙΚΗ, δίνοντασ αίµα ζωήσ. Η Άντρη Καλλιµάχου, Γενική ∆ιευθύντρια τησ CNP CYPRIALIFE, τÞνισε πωσ “µέσα απÞ αυτονÞητεσ, απλέσ πράξεισ µπορούµε να σταθούµε δίπλα σε Þσουσ µασ χρειάζονται. Οι δυνάµεισ των επιχειρήσεων του τÞπου οφείλουν να στηρίζουν την κυπριακή κοινωνία”.

N¤Â˜ gourmet ÁÂ‡ÛÂÈ˜ ÛÙÔ Café Mercedes Μια νέα ξεχωριστή εµπειρία σε Þ,τι αφορά τισ γαστρονοµικέσ προτάσεισ προσφέρει η ανανεωµένη κουζίνα του Café Mercedes στο ιστορικÞ κέντρο τησ Λευκωσίασ στο τέρµα τησ οδού Λήδρασ. Με νέο Chef να αναλαµβάνει τα ινία και µε ένα εντελώσ καινούριο µενού κτισµένο στισ τάσεισ του σύγχρονου ανθρώπου, το Café Mercedes κάνει ολική επαναφορά και υπÞσχεται να διεγείρει τισ αισθήσεισ σασ µε επιλεγµένεσ γεύσεισ «gourmet», και δηµιουργικέσ παρεµβάσεισ εµπνευσµένεσ απÞ την Ελληνική παραδοσιακή κουζίνα. Ο γνωστÞσ Έλληνασ σεφ Άγγελοσ ΜπακÞπουλοσ, µε πολλέσ διακρίσεισ στο ενεργητικÞ του καθώσ επίσησ και συµµετοχή στο Master Chef 2, υπογράφει το νέο δηµιουργικÞ µενού που είναι βασισµένο σε απλά παραδοσιακά Ελληνικά πιάτα που έχουν δηµιουργηθεί µε νέεσ τεχνικέσ και τρÞπο µαγειρέµατοσ, προσφέροντασ έτσι µοναδικέσ «gourmet» γεύσεισ φτιαγµένεσ µε µεράκι και µε τα καλύτερα υλικά. Μετά απÞ µια ενδελεχή αναζήτηση των καλύτερων και ποιοτικÞτερων πρώτων υλών στην αγορά, ο νέοσ σεφ προχώρησε στη δηµιουργία του ανανεωµένου εξαιρετικά ποιοτικού καταλÞγου του Café Mercedes. Ανάµεσα στισ δηµιουργίεσ του νέου σεφ µπορεί κανείσ να εντοπίσει και πινελιέσ απÞ Κύπρο Þπωσ αναρή και λουκάνικο. Στισ νέεσ δηµιουργίεσ του νέου µενού δια χειρÞσ Άγγελου ΜπακÞπουλου θα βρείτε προτάσεισ Þπωσ: ΧταπÞδι sou vide µε κρέµα φάβασ και ελιέσ τσακιστέσ, το οποίο ψήνεται σε κενÞ αέροσ, παραδοσιακή σπανακÞπιτα µε ζελέ φρέσκου τυριού µε σπανάκι σοτέ σε συνδυασµÞ µε φρέσκια µυρώνια, χοιρινÞ φιλέτο µε κρέµα απÞ κυδώνι – σάλτσα κάπαρι µε ψητέσ πατάτεσ και άλλα πολλά. Για πληροφορίεσ και κρατήσεισ καλέστε στα τηλ. 22-270777 και 99-555156

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¡¤Ô Cytashop ÛÙÔ The Mall of Cyprus ÛÙË §Â˘ÎˆÛ›· Για τισ γιορτέσ των Χριστουγέννων, η Cyta έρχεται ακÞµα πιο κοντά στουσ πελάτεσ τησ και στο κοινÞ, προσφέροντάσ τουσ την ευκαιρία να εξυπηρετηθούν απÞ το νέο τησ κατάστηµα Cytashop, στο εµπορικÞ κέντρο The Mall of Cyprus, στη Λευκωσία. Το νέο κατάστηµα τησ Cyta είναι σχεδιασµένο σύµφωνα µε τα νέα αναβαθµισµένα πρÞτυπα εξυπηρέτησησ των καταστηµάτων του Οργανισµού, έτσι ώστε να είναι ακÞµα πιο φιλικά και χρήσιµα στο κοινÞ. Με τη λειτουργία του νέου καταστήµατοσ εξυπηρέτησησ τησ Cyta στo The Mall of Cyprus στη Λευκωσία, ο αριθµÞσ των ιδιÞκτητων Cytashop ανήλθε σε 20, παγκύπρια. Για πληροφορίεσ σχετικά µε το ωράριο εξυπηρέτησησ των Cytashop, οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να επισκέπτονται την ιστοσελίδα τησ Cyta www.cyta.com.cy

¡¤Ô Ú·Ù‹ÚÈÔ ¶ÂÙÚÔÏ›Ó· ÛÙË §ÂÌÂÛfi Ένα νέο, υπερσύγχρονο πρατήριο καυσίµων στη ΛεµεσÞ εντάχθηκε στο δίκτυο πρατηρίων τησ κυπριακήσ εταιρείασ πετρελαιοειδών Πετρολίνα, στο πλαίσιο του στρατηγικού προγραµµατισµού ανάπτυξησ του δικτύου τησ εταιρείασ που στοχεύει στην καλύτερη δυνατή εξυπηρέτηση των καταναλωτών. Η ανέγερση του νέου πρατηρίου, που βρίσκεται στον κάθετο δρÞµο του νέου λιµανιού Λεµεσού, έγινε µε βάση τισ τελευταίεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ προδιαγραφέσ σε θέµατα ασφάλειασ, περιβάλλοντοσ, λειτουργικÞτητασ και εµφάνισησ. Το πρατήριο, µεταξύ άλλων, θα εξυπηρετεί τουσ επισκέπτεσ του εµπορικού κέντρου My Mall, τα οχήµατα που διέρχονται απÞ το νέο λιµάνι Λεµεσού προσ τον αυτοκινητÞδροµο, καθώσ επίσησ και τουσ κατοίκουσ των γύρω περιοχών, Κάτω Πολεµιδιών, Ζακακίου, Τραχωνίου, Φασουρίου και Ασώµατου. Το νέο πρατήριο προσφέρει τα τρία καύσιµα κίνησησ, καθώσ και τα υψηλήσ ποιÞτητασ λιπαντικά ΕΝΙ. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, προσφέρει υπηρεσίεσ Þπωσ έλεγχο λαδιού, µέτρηση πίεσησ ελαστικών, είδη περιπτέρου και αξεσουάρ αυτοκινήτων.

¶ÈÔ ÎÔÌ„¤˜ ÔÈ Á˘Ó·›ÎÂ˜ ÌÂ Î·Ì‡ÏÂ˜ ÊÔÚÒÓÙ·˜ Mat H Mat δηµιουργεί µÞδα που κλέβει την παράσταση σε µεγέθη απÞ 48 µέχρι και 58, κάνοντασ τισ γυναίκεσ µε καµπύλεσ τισ πιο κοµψέσ fashionistas! Trendy attitude, λαµπερή διάθεση, εξωστρέφεια και πάθοσ για τη µÞδα και τη ζωή, είναι τα βασικά χαρακτηριστικά των γυναικών στισ οποίεσ απευθύνονται οι συλλογέσ MAT FASHION σε παραπάνω απÞ 32 χώρεσ σε Ευρώπη, Ρωσία και Μέση Ανατολή. Τώρα βρείτε την αγαπηµένη σασ εταιρία και στο κέντρο τησ Λευκωσίασ, ΑρχιεπισκÞπου Μακαρίου & Ήρασ 22c (τ. 22374313).

December 24 - 30, 2014

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 17

Lessons from 2014 Reflecting on 2014’s forecasts by acknowledging misses and reaffirming factors that led to success In my first commentary of 2014, the US market DIRECTOR, GLOBAL INVESTMENT overview seSTRATEGIES AT INVESCO ction led with the headline, “S&P 2014 in 2014?” Although my actual target was 2060, for the year, I continued to overweight the US over the international markets. Within the international space, I favoured an overweight in Japan, a neutral allocation in Europe and an underweight allocation in emerging markets. Looking at US asset classes, my preference throughout the year was to overweight large-cap stocks over small-cap stocks, and large-cap value over large-cap growth. Although large-cap values’ absolute performance has been strong year-to-date as of November 30, it has lagged largecap growth.

By Rick Golod

2014 DEBRIEFING This was a year of distractions, which kept investors off balance, making it difficult for the global equity markets to find their rhythm. Some of the key themes included: 1. In the US, investors who focused on the macro factors, which suggested buying equities, did great. Some of the macro factors included the fact that the equity market has never peaked until unemployment bottoms, the S&P 500 Index was 100% correlated to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, and investor sentiment (as measured by the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch Sell Side Indicator, which gauges Wall Street’s consensus allocation toward equities) hovered around levels that in the past coincided with stocks trading higher the following 12 months 100% of the time since 1985. 2. Investors who were distracted by fundamentals probably missed a good part of this year’s rally. Fundamental factors, such as disappointing GDP growth in the first quarter and elevated valuation measures like the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (Shiller PE), clouded some investors’ judgment. Low volatility (as measured by the VIX index) and the absence of a 10% correction for more than three years were taken as signs of investor complacency. The perception that corporations were inflating earnings through share buybacks put earnings growth in question. 3. A year of extreme sector rotation in the US. Correlations across the S&P 500 Index sector returns (as measured by the one-year moving average of the month-tomonth correlation of sector returns) are at the lowest level since data began tracking in January 1988. The S&P 500 Index was up 12% until December 3, with gains in nine of the 11 months, and GDP growth has been at or above 3.5% quarter-overquarter in four out of the past five quarters. In such an environment, cyclical stocks would seem more likely to outperform the noncyclical sectors. Yet, the utility sector was up 25%, health care up 28% and consumer staples up 16%, outperforming cyclical sectors like consumer discretionary, which was up 8%, and financials, up 13%. 4. Europe and Japan were a classic case of investors doing the wrong thing at the wrong time for the wrong reasons. In the second quarter, European GDP was growing and investors bought European equities. Six months later, Europe’s market plunged, reaching a low for the year on October 15 (as represented by the MSCI Europe Index) as investors exited en masse, only to subsequently rally to levels slightly below the high for the year. In Japan, investors were selling in March and April as the economy was weakening, and they lost patience for another round of stimulus. April 14 turned out to be the Nikkei 225 Index’s low for the year, and the index went on to rally strongly six months later on the surprise announcement of another round of stimulus. The point here is that investors could have benefited with just patience. 5. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the emergence of the Islamic State took investors’ eyes off the ball and kept many on the sidelines. The media did a great job of exaggerating the risks. If these geopolitical risks had a truly high probability of disrupting the equity markets, then energy prices probably wouldn’t have continued to decline. Gold prices wouldn’t be as low as they were throughout the year. Stock prices reflect earnings over time, and earnings continued to surprise to the upside throughout the year. In other words, it’s important to put risk

in the proper perspective. 6. Emerging market performance seemed to have been based on the whims of investor fear and greed. A shift in perceptions on when/if the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was going to raise rates seemed to turn the tide on emerging market equity performance. Emerging markets have provided some great trading opportunities the past four years, only to reverse course and underperform the S&P 500 Index on a relative basis. That being said, this year there have been big winners in the asset class. Year-to-date, India is up 34%, China 34%, Thailand 22%, Turkey 21% and Egypt 28%. However, as a group, emerging market equities continue to underperform the US market. As I’ve said all year, I believe active managers can make a meaningful difference in this asset class, as country and stock selection are likely to be the key drivers of performance.

TOP FOUR TAKEAWAYS FROM 2014 Based on the themes above, these are the main lessons that I think apply heading into 2015: 1. Liquidity trumps fundamentals - Countries with the most accommodating monetary policy, for the longest period, are likely to have the best equity performance. It doesn’t pay to fight a committed and motivated central bank. Quantitative easing (QE) was designed to fix the income statement, not the balance sheet. In other words, QE is not a solution for counties with too much debt. Rather, it just buys time to deleverage and institute austerity measures that can reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio and put the country on a more solid financial footing. This strategy worked in the US, but deleveraging hasn’t really begun in earnest in Europe. Furthermore, QE may not benefit economic growth, but stock markets love it. Countries with the most aggressive monetary policy have shown the best equity performance. Since July 2012, after Europe’s debt crisis and when Japan began to ease monetary policy aggressively, the Japanese stock market (Nikkei 225 Index) has risen 114% versus the S&P 500 Index, up 62%, and MSCI Europe Index up 58%, as of the end of November. 2. GDP growth does not determine stock market performance - Case in point, equity gains in China and Japan this year belie their countries’ slowing economies. In contrast, since 2009, US year-over-year GDP growth has averaged 1.2% below the 30-year average of 2.9% - and yet this is the fourthbest bull market in US market history, dating back to 1928. Economic growth can impact corporate earnings, which in turn influences stock prices, but it is not always the key driver. While stocks have tended to rise if GDP growth is better than expected, interest rates, valuations and the equity risk premium (a gauge of investor sentiment) also play an important role in moving stock prices. In fact, in the past few years, declines in

the equity risk premium and price multiple expansion have been more significant drivers of US stocks than earnings growth. Don’t be surprised if European stocks perform well next year despite the lack of improvement in the region’s economic growth. 3. Challenge the status quo - The FOMC is likely to raise the fed funds rate without inflation being in the red zone, perhaps as early as June 30. As a result, asset class and sector returns are likely to deviate from past rate-hike environments. Falling energy prices could take the headline consumer price index negative. (Headline CPI is a measure of inflation that includes food and energy prices.) The questions investors should be asking are: Is deflation bad for the stock market if it benefits consumers and their pocketbooks? Are declining energy prices going to derail earnings for the S&P 500 Index and job growth for the economy, or will increased consumer disposable income offset this potential headwind? 4. Sometimes history does repeat — In mid-term election years since 1928, the S&P 500 Index has tended to correct between June and October, then rally in November and December. That’s pretty much what happened in 2014. It will be interesting to see if US equity returns continue to follow the trend of past presidential cycles. From November of a mid-term election year to October in year three of the US president’s term, the S&P 500 Index has been positive 90% of the time, with an average return of 15.5%, since 1928. Furthermore, according to the decennial pattern, going back to 1935, the S&P 500 Index has never been negative in a year that ends in five. And, in the 12 months prior to a Fed rate hike, the S&P 500 Index’s average return was 17%, since 1994.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2015 Look for my full 2015 Global Investment Outlook in the early weeks of January on invesco.com/us. In the meantime, here is a preview of my main ideas for the coming year: - For the US market in 2015, the direction of energy prices and interest rates are likely to be important determinants of asset class and sector performance. - In Europe, a weaker currency could benefit earnings growth. But equity investors will probably nibble around the edges until the European Central Bank begins to expand its balance sheet. - Japanese stocks continue to look attractive in 2015, but with a hedge on the currency risk. - Although emerging markets may perform well early in the new year, I believe this asset class will underperform the developed markets in 2015. www.twitter.com/RickGolod

December 24 - 30, 2014

18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

Ifo Business Climate Index continues to rise in Germany

Have NASDAQ-100 rebalance winners rallied too much?

The Ifo Institut announced its Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany which it said rose to 105.5 points in December from 104.7 last month. Positive assessments of the current business situation remained unchanged and the outlook for the months ahead continued to brighten. Dropping oil prices and a falling euro exchange rate are seasonal gifts to the German economy. In manufacturing, the business climate continued to improve. Firms only slightly scaled back their assessments of the current business situation. After three months of negative figures, the business outlook for the next half year turned positive again in December. Exports continue to support German manufacturing. In wholesaling, the business climate indicator rose for the third month in succession. This was particularly due to far more optimistic expectations, while wholesalers assessed the current business situation as less favourable. In retailing, by contrast, the business climate clouded over. While retailers were more satisfied with the current business situation, they expressed greater pessimism about the months ahead. In construction, the business climate deteriorated marginally, but nevertheless remains at a very high level. Contractors slightly scaled back their favourable assessments of both the current business situation and the business outlook. The Ifo Indicator for the service sector rose in December to 25.6 balance points, from 19.4 points in the previous month. Very favourable assessments of the current business situation continued to improve. Service providers are also far more optimistic about future business developments than in previous months, with expectations rising to their highest level since July 2011. Service providers, especially in the hotel and restaurant industry, still plan to further increase prices.

The NASDAQ OMX Group Inc. announced the results of the annual reranking of the NASDAQ-100 on Monday were three companies were added: American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL), Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) and Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ: LRCX). While exchange traded funds (ETFs) make their adjustments unilaterally at the time of the index changes, the reality is that fund managers who track indexes often move in ahead of, during or after an index changes as they see fit. American Airlines has seen its shares rally nearly 102% year-to-date. On Monday afternoon, shares were up less than 1% at $51.07 and up 1% over the past five days. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $60.79 and a 52-week trading range of $24.63 to $51.88. Electronic Arts shares have risen about 107% this year. In Monday, shares were up less than 1% at $47.77. Also over the past five days, shares rose more than 5%. The consensus analyst price target is $45.24, and the 52-week trading range is $21.25 to $48.35. Lam Research shares have had a year-to-date gain of 49%. On Monday, shares were up 1.5% at $81.77. Over the past five days, shares have risen about 4%. The consensus price target of $87.19 compares to a 52-week trading range of $48.45 to $85.70. NASDAQ-100 was up less than 0.5% at 4291.36. Over the past five days, the index has risen 3%. The 52-week range on the index is 3,414.11 to 4,347.09. (Source: 24/7 Wall St.com)

Moody’s drops Lebanon banks’ ratings after sovereign downgrade to B2 Moody’s Investors Service has downgraded to B2 the longterm deposit ratings of three Lebanese banks: Bank Audi S.A.L., BLOM Bank S.A.L. and Byblos Bank S.A.L., following Tuesday’s the downgrade of Lebanon’s government bond ratings to B2 from B1 (outlook negative). Concurrently, Moody’s lowered the baseline credit assessments of the three banks to b2 from b1 (within the E+ bank financial strength rating category) and downgraded the long-term national scale ratings (NSRs) of Bank Audi and BLOM Bank to Aa3.lb and Byblos Bank to A1.lb. The longterm deposit and national scale ratings have a negative outlook. The rating agency said the downgrades reflect the view that the government’s weakening creditworthiness weighs on the banks’ standalone credit profile given the high credit linkages between their balance sheets and sovereign credit risk, and the government’s reduced capacity to support banks in case of need. According to Moody’s estimates, the banks’ direct exposure to government credit risk (investments in government securities and central bank certificates of deposits) stood at around 2.5 times tier 1 capital for Bank Audi, 2.6 times for BLOM Bank and 4.4 times for Byblos Bank as of September 2014. “The high direct exposure to government credit risk, in

WORLD CURRENCIES PER US DOLLAR CURRENCY

CODE

RATE

EUROPEAN

addition to the primarily Lebanese focus of their operations renders the banks susceptible to event risk at the sovereign level and constrains their baseline credit assessments at the level of the government’s bond rating,” the rating agency said. Regional geographic diversification ranges from around 10% of assets for Byblos Bank, 23% for BLOM Bank and 45% for Bank Audi, and is not sufficient to offset the risks associated with the banks’ credit linkages to the Lebanese sovereign, it added. Moody’s estimates that Lebanon’s 2015 government debt will reach close to 140% of GDP and that current debt trends are likely to continue to deteriorate in the next two years through a combination of lower growth and ongoing political paralysis, exacerbated by the spillover effects of the Syrian crisis. Upward pressure on the banks’ ratings is limited given the negative outlook. However, Moody’s said improvements in the operating environment and in the sovereign’s credit risk profile could prompt a change in the outlook on their ratings to stable. At the end of September, Bank Audi had total assets of LBP 60.1 bln ($39.8 bln), BLOM Bank had total assets of LBP 41.5 bln ($27.5 bln) and Byblos Bank had total assets of LBP 28.6 bln ($18.9 bln).

Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia

BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH

13760 1.5558 1.599 22.5999 6.0843 12.7947 1.2229 1.882 256.63 0.5747 2.8212 0.351 15.56 7.4047 3.498 3.659 54.2961 7.7736 0.9836 15.61

AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD

0.8133 1.1617 7.7586 63.3075 120.05 1101.65 1.2893 1.3208

BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED

0.3770 7.1478 26683.00 3.9107 0.7118 0.2926 1512.00 0.3850 3.6415 3.7532 11.5776 3.6729

AZN KZT TRY

0.7844 182.24 2.3172

AMERICAS & PACIFIC

Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates

CCY USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.125% 0.50% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00%

Swap Rates

CCY/Period

1mth

2mth

3mth

6mth

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CCY/Period

USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.17 0.50 0.01 0.07 -0.03

0.21 0.53 0.04 0.10 -0.05

0.26 0.56 0.06 0.11 -0.06

0.35 0.68 0.14 0.15 -0.02

0.62 0.98 0.30 0.27 0.05

USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

2yr

3yr

4yr

5yr

7yr

10yr

0.90 0.94 0.19 0.13 -0.14

1.30 1.15 0.24 0.15 -0.09

1.59 1.33 0.31 0.17 -0.03

1.78 1.47 0.39 0.20 0.06

2.05 1.69 0.57 0.32 0.25

2.28 1.89 0.86 0.50 0.52

Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates

CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF 1.2229 0.8177

100 JPY

1.5563

1.0168

0.8330

1.2726

0.8314

0.6812

0.6533

0.5352

0.6425

0.7858

0.9835

1.2027

1.5306

120.05

146.81

186.83

0.8192 122.06

ASIA

Weekly movement of USD

CCY\Date

25.11

02.12

09.12

16.12

23.12

CCY

Today

USD GBP JPY CHF

1.2363

1.2402

1.2259

1.2398

1.2166

0.7881

0.7887

0.7839

0.7918

0.7808

145.59

146.75

147.23

145.26

146.02

1.1955

1.1961

1.1948

1.1938

1.1960

GBP EUR JPY CHF

1.5563 1.2229 120.05 0.9835

Last Week %Change 1.5658 1.2398 117.16 0.9629

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham

-0.61 -1.36 +2.46 +2.14

Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:

* USD per National Currency

December 24 - 30, 2014

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

Janet Yellen’s inner Wicksellian Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics We have written very little on central banks and their policies recently. At the beginning of the zero interest rate policy experiment-which so far has lasted longer than World War II— we tried to explain why it was a terrible idea. However, we rapidly came to realise that our role was not to tell central banks what they ought and ought not to do, but rather to try to help our readers build ‘anti fragile’ portfolios that would perform under real world conditions. Nevertheless, last week’s Federal Reserve statement had considerable interest. Apparently, Fed chair Janet Yellen wants to normalise interest rates, and she is inclined to do so sooner rather than later, and faster rather than slower. She might start hiking as early as next spring. And her disapproval of the 25bp per meeting pace of increases instituted by the previous Fed chairmen during the last rate rise cycle indicates she favour a less gradual approach this time around. Her stance is starting to give some hope. The Fed has two goals: low inflation, and high employment (or rather low unemployment, but employment is relative to the working age population, which is less easily manipulated). Clearly, the US has a low inflation rate (some would say too low). The question that we, and the Fed, must ask therefore is: Do low interest rates lead to high employment? Yellen seems to have her doubts. We have split up the period since 1955 according to the cost of money in the US (measured as three-month treasury bill yields in real terms) according to three very simple criteria:

1) Times when real rates were negative. These are called Keynesian periods, since the goal is to euthanise the rentier, a central concept in every Keynesian tool kit. 2) Periods when real rates were between 0 and 2%. Rates were low, but there was no euthanasia of the rentier. 3) The Wicksellian periods, when real rates were close to (or on occasion above) the structural growth rate of the economy (around 2%). The rentier was making a reasonable return. It is interesting to notice that every Wicksellian period was accompanied or followed by a rise in the employment rate (i.e. the number of employed relative to the

working age population). However, every period when real rates were negative was followed by a collapse in the employment rate-with one exception, the 1970s when the labour force participation rate rose sharply as women joined the work force but inflation went ballistic. This makes good sense. As Knut Wicksell demonstrated, if you keep short rates too low, it leads first to massive misallocations of capital-with the survival of zombie companies, capital ploughed into share buybacks etc.-then to a lower structural growth rate and lower employment, and eventually a massive bust when the debt attached to the mispriced assets cannot be repaid. The bigger

the spread between the market rate and the natural rate, said Wicksell, the bigger the volatility of growth and the lower the structural growth rate. One must remember that the correction of over-blown asset prices towards their intrinsic value is always deflationary, hence our long-standing recommendation to hedge equity positions with long-dated US treasuries. In the last cycle, the big misallocation of capital took place in the housing sector. In this cycle it may have been in commodities in general, and in oil in particular. But this cycle is far from over, so we cannot say for sure where the misallocation has taken place. The future will tell. The important thing is to realise that capitalism cannot function without a reasonable level of interest rates and that leverage does not create growth, it creates volatility. Growth comes not from demand but from the appropriate allocation of the only scarce resource-capital-directed by the mechanism of creative destruction. The proof is that the periods of Wicksellian policy in the 1950s, at the beginning of the 1960s, and from 1980 to 2002 were always accompanied by a sustained rise in the employment rate. Yellen is far too gentle a soul to do a Volcker and return very quickly to a Wicksellian short rate. She probably also fears that after years of mispricing, returning too rapidly to a normal cost of money could result in an uncomfortable amount of destruction. Nevertheless, she is making Wicksellian noises to the effect that real interest rates should begin to revert towards more normal levels. If she delivers on her promise, it will be very positive in the long term for the US economy, in medium term for US financial assets, and in the short term for the US dollar.

Will $50 be oil’s floor, or its ceiling? Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics The price of crude oil is set to remain depressed at least through 2015, until the Saudis are satisfied that they have injured their geopolitical and economic competitors severely enough to regain pricing power. The big question now is whether a price of around US$50 a barrel—some 10-15% below present levels—forms the floor of oil’s trading range for the next few years, as it did between 2005 to 2014, or whether US$50/bbl is established as the ceiling of a new lower range, of the sort that prevailed from 1986 to 2004. There are several reasons to expect the oil market to settle into the lower range. The most important are the technological and environmental pressures that are reducing long term demand and threatening to turn much of the high cost oil reserves outside the Middle East into ‘stranded assets’ similar to the earth’s vast but unwanted reserves of coal. Additional pressures for lower oil prices in the long term may include the possible lifting of sanctions on Iran and Russia or greater stability in Iraq, which would eventually release oil reserves as big as Saudi Arabia’s onto the world market. In the short term, powerful downward pressure is being exerted by market positioning, which is still surprisingly

bullish. In the week to December 9, speculators still held net long positions in the US futures markets of 261,000 contracts, a level higher than at the peaks of the bull markets in 2008 and 2011-12. This suggests that the liquidation phase of the bear market has hardly even started. It seems that speculators are still fishing for a bottom rather than following the trend, as they normally do. The shale revolution is another reason why the oil market may move away from the sort of monopoly pricing dominated by OPEC that was seen between 2004 and 2014 and towards a more competitive regime. Shale oil production, although relatively costly, can be turned on and off much more readily than conventional oilfields, with their enormous exploration and capital costs. This means that in future the ‘swing producers’ who bring global oil supply and demand into equilibrium will be US shale prospectors, rather than Saudi officials. If there is an economic rationale behind the recent Saudi actions it is to ensure that low cost OPEC producers can pump at full capacity, while shale producers cut production when demand is weak and ramp it up when demand is strong. If this is how the oil market is going to work in the future, then the marginal cost of US shale production will set the ceiling for global prices, not the floor. On the other hand, there are some strong arguments for the higher post-2005 trading band to hold, once the bottom of this range

is tested by a price of $50 or slightly lower. The most important of these bullish arguments is that OPEC could prevent a return to the 1986-2004 regime of competitive market pricing by learning to function again as an effective cartel. All OPEC countries benefit by curbing their output and pushing up prices. Although such price fixing becomes ever more difficult as producers outside the cartel increase their market share, OPEC could make a serious attempt to impose pricing ‘discipline’ if enough US shale producers get knocked out in the next year. Moreover, the macro-

economic impact of low oil prices on global growth should be extremely positive. So late 2015 or 2016 could see a boom in global economic activity, resulting in stronger oil demand. So, which of these arguments will prove right-the bearish case for a US$25-50 trading-range based on competitive oil pricing, or the bullish case for a US$50-100 range based on continuing OPEC dominance? No-one can predict this with any confidence. Ask us again after the oil price has fallen to US$50 and stayed near that level for a year or so.

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Xi’s reform gambit By Andrew Sheng and Geng Xiao

When Deng Xiaoping initiated China’s market-oriented reforms 35 years ago, he – and the Chinese Communist Party – was taking the biggest political risk since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. When President Xi Jinping unveiled his own reform agenda at last year’s Third Plenum of the 18th CCP Congress, he was taking an equally large risk. Will his strategy pay off? In 1979, Deng was in a difficult situation. He knew that the shift from centrally planned egalitarian socialism toward market-oriented capitalism could destabilise the CCP’s rule, and the unequal accumulation of wealth in the short term could cause significant social and political division. But, with China on the verge of economic and social collapse, following the decade-long chaos of the Cultural Revolution, he had to take action – and there were few, if any, alternatives available. The reforms turned out to be extremely rewarding: more than three decades of double-digit economic growth followed their implementation. Moreover, they allowed the CCP to retain its hold on power. But they benefited some people and regions much more quickly than others – a problem that was tougher to address than Deng had anticipated. Xi’s reforms, like Deng’s, reflect the absence of alternatives. Not only has China’s labour-intensive, investment-led growth model run out of steam; bureaucratic inefficiencies and pervasive corruption – not to mention severe and worsening pollution – are also damaging China’s long-term prospects. Only by addressing these weaknesses and shifting to an innovation-based, environmentally sustainable growth model can the country continue to prosper – and ultimately achieve high-income status.

The difference between the two reform efforts is that Xi must also address the shortcomings of Deng’s work. Deng mistakenly believed that the state, which retained its central role in the economy, would be able to use new marketgenerated resources to correct the short-run inequalities created by his reforms. But the bureaucracy and its privileged networks benefited most, and a second, nonmarket source of inequality – endemic official corruption – became entrenched. That is why Xi’s anti-corruption campaign was a critical precursor to reform. In other words, beyond completing China’s transformation into an open, market-based economy, Xi must establish a strong rule of law that applies to all, while addressing acute inequality of income, opportunity, wealth, and wellbeing. For this reason, Xi must pursue reforms that allow people, money, resources, information, and companies to move more freely across sectors, regions, and national borders. The resulting convergence of wealth and opportunities would generate massive economic and social gains. But, by effectively transforming the economic geography of China, Asia, and the world, liberalisation would also lead to significant creative destruction. Furthermore, market forces could reduce inequality in the longer term only if China’s authorities tolerated the short-term inequalities created by fluctuations in prices for housing, stocks, labor, natural resources, and currency. The problem is that the Chinese bureaucracy prefers stability, and it has strong incentives to strengthen its own position relative to the market, thereby exacerbating power inequalities and dampening innovation and growth. Yet the bureaucracy remains integral to the implementation of any policy that promotes social cohesion. To mitigate the serious systemic risks stemming from the power of China’s overweening, corrupt mandarins, Xi must rebalance their incentives. He is already working to eliminate graft, restrict the scope of administrative approvals, reduce the state-owned sector’s advantages, clarify property rights in land, and simplify welfare, tax, and financial regulations. Beyond reducing systemic risks, these efforts – if they are

sustained – could generate “reform dividends” over time. But the incentive problem is not confined to the bureaucracy. Systemic reform requires recognising and atoning for two original sins: not only that of bureaucrats who made money by abusing their power, but also that of capitalists who made money by breaking the rules. This challenge is best illustrated in the competition between state-owned enterprises and private firms. The failure of private firms that lack access to subsidies or affordable financing deters others from innovating and challenging the status quo. Meanwhile, SOEs – which can invest in excess capacity, record net losses (often through corruption and incompetence), and count on government subsidies – never face a reckoning. The implication is that macroeconomic policies like low interest rates and easy access to credit should be used to ensure equal access to credit for all qualified companies, based on their competitiveness, not their ownership. Unfortunately, implementing such measures would entail micro-level bureaucratic intervention, leading to further expansion of state powers. That is why the bureaucracy must be given incentives – higher salaries, clear performance indicators, and awareness that abuses of power will not be tolerated – to abandon the micro-management of market activities. China’s recent relaxation of macroeconomic policy, despite ongoing market volatility, is an important step toward breaking unnecessary barriers to implementing the reforms needed to mitigate systemic risks. Now that Xi’s anticorruption campaign has taken down some of the CCP’s biggest “tigers,” it is time to focus on structural reform. With the right approach and sustained political will, Xi’s risk-taking can bring China the kind of returns that Deng’s did – and more. Andrew Sheng is Distinguished Fellow of the Fung Global Institute and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

It’s all over now, Baby Boom By Brigitte Miksa Carlos Barientos III was born at 6:45 on the evening of December 31, 1964, a few miles northwest of Honolulu. This year, he will turn 50, quite possibly making him the last member of the US “baby boom” to do so. The generation that once seemed to define for the world the energy, excitement, and even irritating nature of youth will officially be “old” – even if, some might say, not entirely grown up. But what does this really mean? The “baby boomers” are the generation that grew up in the United States, in particular, but also in Europe, Canada, Australia, and elsewhere, after World War II, when rapid economic growth was accompanied by rising birth rates. Those born during that 19-year period – from 1945 to 1964 – were part of the largest, most prosperous, best-educated and, some might say, most indulged and indulgent generation that the world has ever seen. From sex, drugs, and rock ‘n’ roll to the civil rights movements to the dot-com and housing bubbles, for better or worse, the boomer generation has shaped modern society. And with one of its younger members currently in the White House, and others at Downing Street, the Elysee Palace, and the German Chancellery, it will continue to do so for years to come. But there are stark differences within the boomer generation. Early boomers –

beginning with Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, whose birth one second past midnight on New Year’s Day, 1946, has made her a minor celebrity – grew up surrounded by the hippie counterculture, the music of the Beatles and Bob Dylan, and the Vietnam war. By contrast, Barientos and the other boomers of 1964 grew up playing video games and listening to disco music – or, if their tastes were closer to those of Barientos, the heavier sounds of Gary Moore, Thin Lizzy, and Van Halen. In fact, Barientos, who owns and run his own guitar shop with his father, does not readily identify himself as a baby boomer; he feels closer to the “Generation X” that followed. But Barientos’s interests are not all that set him apart from the likes of Casey-Kirschling. While many of the early US baby boomers are now comfortably retired, enjoying the benefits of Medicare, Social Security, and tax-free Roth IRA disbursements, Barientos is still in his prime – and concerned about his retirement. By 2031, when Barientos and the rest of the baby boomers are retired, more than 20% of the US population will be at least 65 years old, compared with only 13% in 2010. As a result, the old-age dependency ratio (the number of people aged 65 or over relative to the workingage population) is set to rise from 1:5 to 1:3. This will intensify pressure on state pension funds and health-care systems considerably. As Barientos puts it, “It’s not like my dad’s generation, where you worked a job for a certain amount of time, saved some money, and then stopped working.” Instead, he explains, “we just do what we can…and keep moving forward.” Not that Barientos would swap places with

his father. “I think I’ve been blessed in comparison to previous generations,” he says. “Even compared to older members of my generation, I haven’t had to fight for my freedom. I didn’t have to go to Vietnam. I’ve been able to benefit from the hard work of people before me.” Definitions of the post-war baby boom vary by country. Barientos’s claim to be the last US boomer rests on Hawaii’s position as America’s most westerly state in a time zone two hours behind the Pacific coast. It also means, though, that he lives a life that is somewhat different from that of many of his peers on the mainland. “The food, the language, the weather – Hawaii isn’t like the rest of the US,” he notes. “The first time I left Hawaii, I was 25 years old. I went to Maryland to visit a friend for two weeks and ended up staying five years because I loved it so much.” If he had the money, Barientos says he would probably be a “snow bird” – spending summers on the US mainland and winter in Hawaii. “There are things I’d like to do with

my family that we just can’t do here, such as [going to] museums, amusement parks, or large sporting events.” He could not leave permanently, though – there are too many things to enjoy at home. “I love the people, the culture – pretty much everything.” When Barientos and his family spill out onto the beach to celebrate New Year’s Eve with the whole neighbourhood, one of the last things he will think about is his age. “I don’t have time to be worrying about that!” he says. What about his status as the last of a generation? “I don’t know whether I’m the last baby boomer or not,” Barientos muses. “If there was anyone born in Hawaii later than 6:45 on December 31, 1964, then they’ve got me beat. But, you know what, if it means I get to meet some new people and talk about it, then it’s definitely cool.” Brigitte Miksa is Head of International Pensions at Allianz Asset Management. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

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Pakistan’s new leaf? As US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton bluntly told Pakistan in 2011, “you can’t keep snakes in your backyard and expect them only to bite your neighbours.” But her warning (“eventually those snakes are going to turn on their keeper”), like those of other American officials over the years, including presidents and CIA chiefs, went unheeded.

By Brahma Chellaney The snake-keeper’s deepening troubles were exemplified by the recent massacre of 132 schoolchildren in Peshawar by militants no longer under the control of Pakistan’s generals. Such horror is the direct result of the systematic manner in which the Pakistani military establishment has reared jihadist militants since the 1980s as an instrument of state policy against India and Afghanistan. By continuing to nurture terrorist proxies, the Pakistani military has enabled other militants to become entrenched in the country, making the culture of jihad pervasive. The Peshawar massacre was not the first time that the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism became a terror victim. But the attack has underscored how the contradiction between battling one set of terror groups while shielding others for cross-border undertakings has hobbled the Pakistani state. As a result, the question many are asking is whether, in the wake of the Peshawar killings, the Pakistani military, including its rogue Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency, will be willing to break its ties with militant groups and dismantle the state-run terrorist infrastructure. Unfortunately, developments in recent months, including in

the aftermath of the Peshawar attack, offer little hope. On the contrary, with the military back in de facto control, the civilian government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is in no position to shape developments. And, despite the increasing blowback from state-aided militancy, the generals remain too wedded to sponsoring terrorist groups that are under United Nations sanctions – including Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and the Haqqani network – to reverse course. Reliance on jihadist terror has become part of the generals’ DNA. Who can forget their repeated denial that they knew the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden before he was killed by US naval commandos in a 2011 raid on his safe house in the Pakistani garrison city of Abbottabad? Recently, in an apparent slip, a senior civilian official – Sharif’s national security adviser, Sartaj Aziz – said that Pakistan should do nothing to stop militants who do not intend to harm Pakistan. Pakistan is already a quasi-failed state. Its anti-India identity is no longer sufficient to stem its mounting contradictions, which are most apparent in the two incarnations of the Taliban: the Afghan Taliban, which is the Pakistani military’s surrogate, and the Pakistani Taliban – formally known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) – which is the military’s nemesis. Pakistan also provides sanctuary to the Afghan Taliban’s chief, Mullah Mohammad Omar (and also harbours a well-known international fugitive, the Indian organised crime boss Dawood Ibrahim). Meanwhile, Hafiz Saeed, the founder of the ISI’s largest surrogate terror organisation, LeT, remains the generals’ darling, leading a public life that mocks America’s $10 million bounty on his head and the UN’s inclusion of him on a terrorist list. Earlier this month, Pakistani authorities aided a large public rally by Saeed in Lahore, including by running special trains to ferry

in participants, so that the architect of the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack (among many others) could project himself as some sort of messiah of the Pakistani people. Yet none of that stopped Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Raheel Sharif, and ISI Director-General Rizwan Akhter from rushing to Kabul after the Peshawar attack to demand that President Ashraf Ghani and the US-led military coalition extradite TTP chief Mullah Fazlullah or allow Pakistani forces to go in after him. In other words, they seek the help of Afghanistan and the US to fight the Pakistani Taliban while unflinchingly aiding the Afghan Taliban, which has been killing Afghan and NATO troops. Such is the generals’ Janus-faced approach to terrorism that six years after the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan has yet to try the seven Pakistani perpetrators in its custody. Indeed, under the cover of indignation over the Peshawar attack, the leading suspect in the case – UN-designated terrorist Zaki-urRehman Lakhvi, who served as LeT’s

operations chief – secured bail. International outrage soon forced Pakistan to place him in preventive detention for up to three months. The international community should stop placing its hope in some abrupt change of heart on the generals’ part. Creating a moderate Pakistan at peace with itself can only be a long-term project, because it hinges on empowering a feeble civil society and, ultimately, reining in the military’s role in politics. As long as the military, intelligence, and nuclear establishments remain unaccountable to the civilian government, Pakistan, the region, and the world will continue to be at risk from the jihadist snake pit that the country has become. Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research., is the author of Asian Juggernaut, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, and Water,Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

Divest in a better future By Mike McGinn Sometimes the best measure of a movement’s momentum is the reaction of its critics. When, in early October, the Australian National University (ANU) announced that it would sell its shares in seven fossil-fuel and mining companies, it triggered a chorus of criticism from the country’s conservative politicians. These nominal champions of the free market were quick to tell the university what it should do with its money. The Treasurer of Australia, Joe Hockey, disparaged the ANU’s decision as being “removed from reality.” Others chimed in, calling it “a disgrace,” “very strange,” and “narrow-minded and irresponsible.” Never mind that the sums involved were relatively small – making up less than 2% of the university’s estimated $1 bln portfolio. As the drive to divest from fossil fuels picks up speed, such panicky responses are becoming increasingly common. The outrage of Australia’s conservatives reminds me of the reaction I received when I testified before the US Congress in 2013 that we should “keep our coal in the ground where it belongs.” David McKinley, a Republican congressman from West Virginia, in the heart of America’s coal country, replied that my words “sent a shiver up [his] spine,” then changed the subject to the crime rate in Seattle, where I was Mayor. Even ExxonMobil appears shaken. The company recently

published a long, defensive blog post responding to what it described as a “full-throated endorsement” of fossil-fuel divestment by Mary Robinson, United Nations SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki-moon’s special envoy for climate change. The fossil-fuel industry clearly sees the divestment movement as the political threat that it is. When enough people say no to investing in fossil-fuel production, the next step has to be keeping coal, oil, and gas in the ground. That is a necessary step if we are to head off the most dangerous consequences of climate change. To prevent world temperatures from rising above the 2 degrees Celsius threshold that climate scientists believe represents a tipping point beyond which the worst effects could no longer be mitigated, we will need to leave approximately 80% of known fossil-fuel reserves untapped. Oil and coal companies and their political allies warn us of fiscal catastrophe if we do that – as if heat waves, droughts, storms, and rising seas did not bring their own fiscal and social catastrophes. As Mayor of Seattle, I supported the creation of energy-efficient buildings, the development of solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, and a shift toward walking, biking, and public transit as alternatives to driving – strategies that can help to build a more resilient economy and provide viable alternatives to fossil fuels. But they cannot prevent the worst of global warming, particularly if they result in coal and oil simply being sold elsewhere. As imperfect as our governance systems are, at some point the public and its leaders may demand that we confront the truth about global warming. At that point, they will put in place the regulatory or legal controls needed to reduce fossilfuel use dramatically. If you are a prudent and cautious investor, contemplate

that possibility for a moment. Stock values in the fossil-fuel industry – which are based on the assumption that companies will be able to extract and burn all known reserves – will plummet. Investing in these companies, it turns out, is extraordinarily risky. As anyone who receives investment statements knows, “past performance is no guarantee of future performance.” That reality implies another compelling case for divestment. To be sure, some will claim that the world will never change and that we will continue to depend on fossil fuels forever. But one has only to look to Seattle, where gay couples marry in City Hall and marijuana is sold in licensed retail outlets, to see the human capacity to reexamine deeply held assumptions. The prudent investor, and the wise business leader, will look where the economy is headed, not where it has been. The ANU’s decision looks like a sage one to anyone not in thrall to oil and gas companies, and it will only look wiser with the passing of time. Good on them. When I put Seattle on the path to divestment in 2013, my decision was well received by the young people who will have to live with the consequences of global warming, as well as the general public. As the political pressure mounts, the university’s administrators need only listen to the students. We need more courage like that shown by the ANU. Its leaders bucked the power of coal and oil interests, which wield enormous power in Australia. If they can do it to popular acclaim, others can, too. Mike McGinn is a former mayor of Seattle, the first city to commit to divestment from fossil fuels. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

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The real Lima deal By Michael Jacobs It was the agreement that everyone wanted, yet that no one much likes. This year’s annual United Nations climate-change conference in Lima, Peru, concluded last week after fierce argument in the final days. Negotiators from 196 countries patched together a compromise that keeps the world on course to a new global climate agreement in Paris next year; but almost everyone was left unhappy with some provision or another. Many critics of the deal, however, have missed the point. The Lima deal is weak in many respects. But it also represents a fundamental breakthrough for shaping a comprehensive global climate regime. The Lima conference had two goals. The first was to adopt an outline of the text of the 2015 Paris agreement. This goal was achieved – but only by creating a huge 37-page document containing every possible option that countries may want to see in next year’s deal. Delegates did not attempt to negotiate between the various options, taking to heart the old maxim “Why do today what you can put off until tomorrow?” That negotiation has been left to the five sessions of talks scheduled for 2015, starting in February. Given the divergence among the

positions included in the Lima text, arriving at a draft fit for signing in Paris next December will be a huge task. The second goal was to agree on the terms under which countries will devise their national commitments – officially, their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) – in 2015. Here, the compromises were sharply felt. Developing countries wanted the INDCs to include plans for adaptation to climate change as well as emissions cuts, and they wanted developed countries to include financial support for poorer countries. Instead, no commitments to new money were made, and the inclusion of adaptation plans will be optional, not compulsory. Meanwhile, developed countries wanted all countries to provide standardised information on their emissions targets and plans, to ensure transparency and comparability. The key elements were agreed on, but only in the form of guidance, not as requirements. Likewise, the proposal by the European Union and the United States that countries’ plans be subject to some kind of assessment was dropped from the final text. But the aggregate effect of all countries’ plans will be calculated, allowing evaluation next year of whether the world has done enough to limit average global warming to the agreed ceiling of 2 degrees Celsius. It almost certainly will have not. For many of the agreement’s critics, particularly those in the environmental movement, these compromises made the Lima deal an excessively “bottom-up”

agreement. Countries have too much latitude to make whatever commitments they want, relatively unconstrained by a common set of “top-down” rules imposed by the agreement. Such critics worry that this will make it harder to persuade countries to cut emissions further when it becomes clear that their collective efforts are not enough, and that it may even allow some countries to use irregular accounting methods. But this overlooks the Lima agreement’s greatest accomplishment: It ends the longstanding division of the world into only two kinds of countries, developed and developing. Ever since the original UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in 1992, countries’ obligations have been defined according to their level of development in that year. The rich so-called “Annex 1” countries have had compulsory obligations, while poorer “non-Annex 1” countries merely have been required to make voluntary efforts. Over the last 22 years, that binary distinction has looked increasingly obsolete, as the larger developing countries, such as China and Brazil, have emerged as economic superpowers and major greenhouse-gas emitters. For this reason, the developed world has long wanted to replace the “firewall” between the two historic groupings with a form of differentiation that better reflects the contemporary world. But the developing countries – including major powers like China – have insisted that it remain. No longer. The Lima agreement creates

obligations for countries without regard for the distinction between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1. Rather, it uses a new phrase drawn from the recent agreement between the US and China: countries’ responsibilities will be based on “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in light of different national circumstances.” The firewall has been breached. In theory, the Lima agreement on INDCs does not determine the shape of the long-term Paris agreement. So another fierce battle on this issue can be expected next year. But the vast majority of developing countries – including China and Brazil – are happy with the new regime. So it is impossible to imagine the binary model being restored – and those countries that opposed the change know it, which is why the final two days in Lima were so fiercely fought. The Lima conference has shown just how hard the negotiations in Paris next year will be, despite recent optimism about global progress. But one highly significant decision has now effectively been made. Abandoning the rigid distinction between developed and developing countries paves the way toward an agreement that all countries, including the US and China, can sign. Michael Jacobs is Visiting Professor in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

Making climate promises count By Stephane Dion and Eloi Laurent This year will be one of the warmest on record. Over the last decade, greenhouse-gas emissions have accelerated, and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased in the past year at the fastest rate in nearly three decades, reaching a level that is 15% higher than in 1990. As the latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises, the disconnect between an intensifying climate crisis and stalled international negotiations has never been greater. Needless to say, a lot is riding on next year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris, which could shape strategies to reduce global greenhouse-gas emissions until 2050. But the summit is unlikely to deliver the global agreement that is so badly needed, unless world leaders broaden their focus to include not only emissions reduction, but also carbon pricing. A growing number of experts – including those at the International Monetary Fund, the OECD, and the World Bank – agree that no climate plan can be successful without an effective and efficient carbon-pricing system. The IPCC has concluded that if a single global carbon price is not established soon, it will be virtually impossible to prevent global warming from surpassing 2C above preindustrial levels – the threshold beyond which the most devastating effects of climate change would become unavoidable. The one-dimensional approach based exclusively on emissions-reduction targets is preventing even the regions that have been most active on climate change, such as the European Union, from making sufficient progress. Yet, in late October, EU member states agreed on a new policy framework for climate and energy for 2030 – one that, like the EU’s 2020 climate and energy package, lacks a solid foundation. The EU’s established goal of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 40% by 2030 is supported only by non-binding energy-efficiency and renewable-energy targets. Devoid of true

carbon-pricing reform, the deal depends on the EU’s derelict Emissions Trading System. The result is a set of impressivesounding commitments without instruments for effective implementation. The same can be said of the widely touted new bilateral agreement between the United States and China, the world’s two largest carbon emitters. Given the deadlock that previously prevailed, the deal represents welcome progress; but it, too, lacks adequate instruments to support its ambitions. The Paris summit next year needs to produce a more substantial agreement, with national emissions-reduction targets underpinned by adequate and coordinated tools for implementation, including a trial global carbon price. On an issue as urgent as climate change, there simply is no room for ambiguity. The first step toward creating such an agreement is to initiate a debate, supported by academic research and scientific evidence, aimed at determining a desirable global carbon price and outlining the linkages between current and future prices, taking into account equity, efficiency, and effectiveness. Such a debate – not emissions-reduction targets guaranteed only by states’ “political will” – will be the mark of a successful summit. In fact, no outcome would be worse than a “feel-good” agreement composed of vague, unenforceable targets. The US government’s recent statements in favour of a “political” agreement rather than a “legally binding” accord is yet another indication that official declarations alone will produce precisely

such a result. In the longer term, a constructive debate in Paris on an appropriate global carbon price could pave the way for the development of a new, polycentric approach to climate governance that would value territorial and local initiatives, in addition to national efforts. At that point, discrete carbon prices could gradually converge toward a single price, as has occurred with prices for commodities like oil. EU leaders often boast to their global partners of their commitment to mitigating climate change. And they may be right. But, so far, the EU has stood out more because the rest of the world is lagging than because it has designed a truly effective strategy to address the problem; its recently concluded agreement could actually serve as a counter-model for next year’s summit. The price of carbon effectively amounts to the price of human wellbeing on this planet. If Europe truly wants to lead the fight against climate change, it should bring the issue of a harmonized carbon-pricing system to the negotiating table in Paris. In doing so, it would launch a critical shift toward a comprehensive and, for the first time, effective climate agreement. Stéphane Dion is a member of Canada’s House of Commons and former Minister of the Environment of Canada. Éloi Laurent, a senior economist at OFCE /Sciences Po, teaches at Stanford University. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

December 24 - 30, 2014

financialmirror.com | WORLD | 23

The productivity of trust By Ricardo Hausmann The Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman once quipped that “Canada is essentially closer to the United States than it is to itself.” After all, most of its citizens live in a narrow band along the more than 3,000-milelong border. Most Canadians live closer to more Americans than they do to other Canadians. The same can be said of corporations and governments. Most firms are closer to the government than they are to other firms: they interact with government rules and agencies more than they do with the rest of the business community. The quality of that interaction and its evolution over time is probably the most fundamental determinant of a country’s potential for growth and prosperity. But this is not the Weltanschauung – the worldview – that permeates private-sector discourse, especially the views expressed by most chambers of trade and industry and business associations around the world. Business organisations often hew to Ronald Reagan’s dictum: “Government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem.” It is a great sound bite: short, recursive, and somewhat poetic. Unfortunately, it is also dangerously misleading. After all, even if government were the problem, then changing what it does must be part of the solution. The truth is that markets cannot exist without governments, and vice versa. Governments are essential to the establishment of security, justice, property rights, and contract enforcement, all of which are essential to a market economy. Governments must also organise the

provision of infrastructure for transportation, communication, energy, water, and waste disposal. They run and regulate health-care systems and primary, secondary, tertiary, and vocational education. They create the rules and provide the certifications that allow firms to assure their customers, workers, and neighbours that what they do is safe. They protect creditors and minority shareholders from miscreant managers (and managers from impulsive creditors). Saying that governments should get out of the way and let the private sector do its thing is like saying that air traffic controllers should get out of the way and let pilots do their thing. In fact, governments and the private sector need each other, and they need to find better ways to collaborate. The problem is that in many countries, both developed and developing, the current relationship between the private sector and the government is often dysfunctional. Not only is it characterised by deep distrust, but the broader society does not find a closer relationship to be either legitimate or in the public interest, and for good reason. The private sector often engages with the government in order to make itself more profitable. After all, maximising profits is what CEOs are supposed to do. And the government has ways to help: It can force suppliers to sell their inputs more cheaply, repress workers’ wage demands, protect the final market from competition by imports or new entrants, or lower their taxes. But these schemes make firms more profitable by making their suppliers, workers, and customers poorer. Accepting such demands makes the government rightly illegitimate in the eyes of the rest of society, which cherishes higher priorities than redistribution in favour of the already rich. Outcomes would be very different if the focus of the relationship were productivity rather than profitability. Productivity improvements, by lowering costs, allow firms

to pay their workers and suppliers better, reduce prices for consumers, pay more in taxes, and still make more money for their shareholders. A focus on productivity is winwin-win. Governments can do many things, in a variety of areas, to raise productivity. Fresh produce requires a cold-storage logistic system, a green lane at customs, certification of good agricultural practices, and sanitary permits. Tourism depends on sensible visa requirements, convenient airports, road signs, hotel construction permits, and the preservation of cultural sites and coastlines. Manufacturing requires dedicated urban space that is adequately connected to power, water, transport, logistics, security, and a diverse labor force. All of these productivity-boosting inputs require institutions that teach and extend industry-relevant knowledge and skills. None of them appears in the World Bank’s Doing Business indicators or the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index. And yet, without these public inputs, the industries that depend on them cannot succeed. That is precisely what happens in the absence of a sound and legitimate basis for cooperation between the government and the private sector. The result is inadequate provision of public goods that raise productivity and make everyone better off. To create such a basis for cooperation,

many countries need a new compact between the government and the private sector. This will not be possible if business groups insist on putting taxes at the center of the discussion. Instead, they should focus on measures that raise productivity. More broadly, business groups should seek only those government policies that are unambiguously in the public interest. Demands that are perceived as greedy erode legitimacy and, ultimately, effectiveness. In this context, watchdog NGOs dedicated to scoring the public-interest value of what business groups ask for from the government could facilitate trust. Perhaps most important, business associations do their members a disservice by seeking to impose on them a single voice. Doing so usually leads to a focus on policies that are preferred by all members – such as lower taxes – instead of measures that are important to the productivity of each member. Just as monopolies are bad for markets and politics, business representation in the private sector would benefit from more competition. Ricardo Hausmann, Director of the Center for International Development and Professor of the Practice of Economic Development at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, is a former Venezuelan minister of planning. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

The economic consequences of drug resistance By Jim O’Neill When British Prime Minister David Cameron asked me in July to lead an effort to find solutions to the growing global problem of antimicrobial resistance, my first question was: “What is that?” I soon learned that, as bacteria and parasites develop resistance to existing drugs, like antibiotics and antimalarial medications, the world is at risk of losing its battle against infectious diseases. So my next question was: “Why me? Don’t you need a scientist?” It turns out that the problem of rising antimicrobial resistance is as much about economics as it is about science or medicine. Left unchecked, it will kill millions of people every year, and have serious adverse economic consequences for the world. For developing economies, including most of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries, the risk is particularly large. Recent research, by an independent review on antimicrobial resistance, which I chair, has modeled the phenomenon’s likely impact on the world economy. It suggests that if we fail to address antimicrobial resistance, the problem will grow worse. By 2020, if we allow resistance to rise by 40%, global GDP will be 0.5% smaller than it otherwise would have been. By 2030, it will be 1.4% smaller. By 2050, the economic shortfall will reach 3%. The accumulated loss of global output over the

next 35 years will total $100 trillion – more than one and a half times annual world GDP today. Already, 60,000 people die every year from causes related to antimicrobial resistance in the United States and Europe – some ten times the worldwide death toll from the ongoing Ebola crisis. By 2050, if the problem is allowed to continue to grow, antimicrobial resistance will kill more than ten million people per year. That is more than the number of people who currently die of cancer, diabetes, lung cancer, road traffic accidents, diarrhoeal disease, and HIV/AIDS combined. The economic costs from the resulting panic, including a collapse of travel and trade, could be devastating. Rising rates of antimicrobial resistance will have a particularly severe impact on India, Indonesia, and Nigeria (as well as the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa). Countries like China and Brazil, which have been successful in reducing malaria rates, could see their hard work undermined by an increase in resistance to antimalarial drugs. The research we commissioned was based on the limited data available. It does not take into account the damage from drug-resistant illnesses outside of hospitals or the impact of escalating healthcare costs. Nor does it include the drop in living standards from the loss of life-enhancing treatments – for example, knee or hip replacements, cancer treatment, and caesarean sections – that rely on antibiotics to prevent infections. The broad-brush research we conducted shows that such treatments – many of which would not be possible without effective antibiotics – add around 4% of benefit in terms of GDP. One of my goals is to persuade policymakers at the United Nations to agree to a set of rules and policies to stop the growth of antimicrobial resistance. In addition to highlighting the scale of the problem, the review is seeking to find ways to

reduce drug resistance and to stimulate the production of new antibiotics to compensate for the loss of those that are now or will become ineffective. Some solutions to reduce resistance will require cuttingedge technology. We must encourage policymakers to support the development of the best diagnostics. Quicker, more accurate diagnoses will curb the current overreliance on antibiotics – a key requirement for combating resistance. We also must develop tools to identify and halt outbreaks of resistant diseases at an early stage. Data provided by diagnostic devices could be a potent weapon in containing these outbreaks. Other solutions are low tech, requiring little more than common sense. We need to start washing our hands thoroughly and often. We need to stop demanding antibiotics from our doctors. And, when antibiotics are called for, we need to finish the prescribed course. As we try to prevent resistance to existing drugs, we will also need to examine the impact of antibiotics in agriculture. Developing new antibiotics is a challenge, because pharmaceutical companies seem to need incentives to conduct the required research. The review will study whether market incentives can be changed. If they cannot, more dramatic alternatives to boost early innovation by university labs and small companies could be sought, perhaps through a targeted fund. As the review research shows, the stakes of inaction on antimicrobial resistance are high. Now is the time to search for bold, clear, and practical long-term solutions. Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is a visiting research fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

December 24 - 30, 2014

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Why are commodity prices falling? By Jeffrey Frankel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University

Oil prices have plummeted 40% since June – good news for oil-importing countries, but bad news for Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and other oil exporters. Some attribute the price drop to the US shale-energy boom. Others cite OPEC’s failure to agree on supply restrictions. But that is not the whole story. The price of iron ore is down, too. So are gold, silver, and platinum prices. And the same is true of sugar, cotton, and soybean prices. In fact, most dollar commodity prices have fallen since the first half of the year. Though a host of sectorspecific factors affect the price of each commodity, the fact that the downswing is so broad – as is often the case with big price swings – suggests that macroeconomic factors are at work. So, what macroeconomic factors could be driving down commodity prices? Perhaps it is deflation. But, though inflation is very low, and even negative in a few countries, something more must be going on, because commodity prices are falling relative to the overall price level. In other words, real commodity prices are falling. The most common explanation is the global economic slowdown, which has diminished demand for energy, minerals, and agricultural products. Indeed, growth has slowed and GDP forecasts have been revised downward since mid-year in most countries. But the United States is a major exception. The American expansion seems increasingly well established, with estimated annual growth exceeding 4% over the last two quarters. And yet it is particularly in the US that commodity prices have been falling. The Economist’s

euro-denominated Commodity Price Index, for example, has actually risen over the last year; it is only the Index in terms of dollars – which is what gets all of the attention – that is down. That brings us to monetary policy, the importance of which as a determinant of commodity prices is often forgotten. Monetary tightening is widely anticipated in the US, with the Federal Reserve having ended quantitative easing in October and likely to raise short-term interest rates sometime in the coming year. This recalls a familiar historical pattern. Falling real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates in the 1970s, 2002-2004, and 2007 -2008 were accompanied by rising real commodity prices; sharp increases in US real interest rates in the 1980s sent dollar commodity prices tumbling. There is something intuitive about the idea that when the Fed “prints money,” the money flows into commodities, among other places, and so bids their prices up – and thus that prices fall when interest rates rise. But, what, exactly, is the causal mechanism? In fact, there are four channels through which the real interest rate affects real commodity prices (aside from whatever effect it has via the level of economic activity). First, high interest rates reduce the price of storable commodities by increasing the incentive for extraction today rather than tomorrow, thereby boosting the pace at which oil is pumped, gold is mined, or forests are logged. Second, high rates also decrease firms’ desire to carry inventories (think of oil held in tanks). Third, portfolio managers respond to a rise in interest rates by shifting out of commodity contracts (which are now an “asset class”) and into treasury bills. Finally, high interest rates strengthen the domestic currency, thereby reducing the price of internationally traded commodities in domestic terms (even if the price has not fallen in foreign-currency terms). US interest rates did not really rise in 2014,

so most of these mechanisms are not yet directly at work. But speculators are thinking ahead and shifting out of commodities today in anticipation of future higher interest rates in 2015; the result has been to bring next year’s price increase forward to today. The fourth of the channels, the exchange rate, has already been functioning. The prospect of US monetary tightening coincides with moves by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan toward enhanced monetary

stimulus. The result has been an appreciation of the dollar against the euro and the yen. The euro is down 8% against the dollar since the first half of the year and the yen is down 14%. That explains how so many commodity prices can be down in terms of dollars and up in terms of other currencies. Jeffrey Frankel is Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-

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