Financial Mirror 2014 03 05 issuu

FinancialMirror Saving Retirement: life after work

Malthus, Marx, and modern growth

By Martin Feldstein - PAGE 21

By Kenneth Rogoff - PAGE 6

Issue No. 1072

â‚Ź1.00

March 5 - 11, 2014

Cyta, EAC head for privatisation SEE PAGE 4

March 5 - 11, 2014

2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

FinancialMirror Thank God for free speech Published every Wednesday by Financial Mirror Ltd.

EDITORIAL

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Although the Cyprus media scene is admittedly still immature, with broadcasters and publishers on occasion getting carried away by nationalist or other sentiment, allowing every Thomas, Yiannis and Costis to air their views very often allows for a delightful alternative to the small, yet vibrant local stand-up comedy scene.

Many don’t realise that freedom of speech goes both ways: freedom to express your views, as stupid as they may be, balanced with a freedom to be heard. This second part is what some antiquated trade unions and old-school politicians have yet to grasp. Many insist that it is their God given right to say whatever crosses their mind, as far away from logic and reality as they may be, but refuse to listen to the alternative, simply because they cannot consider anything different from what they have been farmed to think for the past five decades.

And yet, it is sometime amusing to hear union bosses, scared that they are losing membership by the bushel, talk of doom and gloom, and that all will be lost the day after the privatisation bill passes through parliament. Cyprus, they say, is on the verge of a national destruction (as if we weren’t there already) and that the livelihood of the island’s economy, even the solution of the Cyprus problem, lies with the prosperity of the workers at semigovernment organisations, while preserving their pensions rights is paramount to dealing with climate

change, abolition of slavery and even the Russian invasion of Crimea.

Perhaps, Cypriot consumers will now be able to breathe some fresh air as free competition will finally allow for prices to go down and the quality of services to go up, something union bosses could never comprehend. Some agencies that have passed their sell-by date ought to have been shut down ages ago, replaced with competitive services provided by private companies, many of which might even consider hiring civil servants who know the ropes around the government machine or how an SGO works.

But to stomp their feet on air, like cry-babies whining over the fact that a radio presenter may have cut them off, simply because they exceeded their air-time, shows how immature some union and party officials may be.

Hopefully, we will see less meddling by political parties and more involvement of society in general, that will see the likes of Cyta, EAC, Ports Authority and others giving us some good news for a change, reporting on their achievements and how reforms will benefit the consumer and much troubled citizen.

Times have changed. We no longer live in the 1960s where most were from poor or struggling families and public jobs-for-the-boys were a considered a tool to win the next elections.

Privileges must be removed where they are undeservedly given and rewards must be introduced for those who work hard.

With privatisation coming our way, let’s get the ‘Cyprus’ brand working again.

THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO

CSE on recovery path, BOC downgrade Following the record boom and bust of 19992000, the Cyprus stock market seems to be on a path to recovery with the collective losses of public companies slowing down. However, Fitch said in a rating downgrade that Bank of Cyprus had increased its loan provisions, a worrisome development, according to the Financial Mirror, issue 557, March 3, 2004.

CSE results: Companies listed on the BSE bourse managed a 45% improvement in their 2003 results, but remained deep in the red to the tune of CYP 145 mln, after losing CYP 324 m,ln in 2002 and 310 mln in 2001, following the 119 mln profits recorded in 2000. The gross price to

20 YEARS AGO

Clerides ends first year, BOC leasing

Glafcos Clerides ended his first year in office with a mixed bag of goodies, with as many positive as negative points in his achievement so far.

On the commercial side, Bank of Cyprus launched new leasing and hire-purchase products, according to The Cyprus Financial Mirror, issue 49, March 1, 1994.

First year: In his first year in office, President Clerides

earnings ratio (p/e) of the market was at 15.7 times, while the best turnaround company was Laiki Bank with a CYP 61 mln improvement in results with 9.5 mln in profits after 51 mln in losses in 2002. (And where is Laiki today?)

Fitch downgrade: Bank of Cyprus saw its longterm ‘stabe’ rating by Fitch downgraded to ‘negative’ because of increased loan provisions to CYP 110 mln, resulting in a loss of CYP 28 mln for 2003, but the agency said a prospective solution to the Cyprus problem would be “beneficial top the economy.” (Did they know something we didn’t?)

Bases rent: Britain is being asked to play a key role in the forthcoming donors’ conference to be held on April 15, with former House president Alexis Ghalanos saying the UK has not paid since 1963 for use of the Republic’s facilities with the rent due estimated at CYP 870 mln. (Perhaps PM Cameron sought to close the matter with the landmark Bases deal, by offloading administrative headaches on the Republic as well.)

Annan costs: The cost of implementing the Annan Plan is

far from the CYP 10-16 bln “leaked” by the Finance Ministry to the ‘No’ media, as part of the scaremongering efforts to reject the peace plan, with our own estimates putting the cost at CYP 4 bln Inter-Conti delay: The new Inter-Continental at Aphrodite Hills which was expected to commence operations in July 2004 will most likely open in December, or early 2005, at a cost of CYP 27.3 mln.

Rates unchanged: The MPC decided that official interest rates would remain unchanged with the marginal lending Lombard at 4.5% and the overnight deposit at 2.5%.

Stock Market: Bank of Cyprus promised to return to profit in 2004, with Hellenic boosting core profits, but still remaining in the red, while the likes of Muskita and CTC boosting profits 33% and tenfold, respectively. The CSE Allshare index closed 1.9% higher, with a year-to-date rise 10.5%. Bank of Cyprus closed at CYP 1.57, Cyprus Popular Laiki at 130c and Hellenic Bank unchanged at 59c. Market cap: CYP 2.62 bln (+60 mln).

had as many achievements as well as setbacks to mark the administration. On the positive side, the defence budget gave a clearer picture of state spending, higher tax relief was introduced for lowerincome families, the fiscal deficit was reduced according to budget, a general freeze in civil service appointments, incentives for insurance companies to invest in local stocks, and a drive to find new markets for local goods, tourism and services. On the downside, Finance Minister Phaedros Economides caused unnecessary alarm with a dreary view of the economy, the hasty way semi-government jobs were slashed but some rehired, VAT rose by 3% that affected wages and COLA, the delay in setting up the CSE and the

inability to stand up to the Pasydy trade union bullies.

BOCY products: Bank of Cyprus launched two new schemes to help market activity, a new hire-purchase product for Bases personnel, and a leasing service. The Group’s market share in financing is estimated at 46% worth CYP 113 mln, while Laiki’s Finance Corp was second with a 32% market share.

CAIR troubles: National carrier Cyprus Airways was under fire again, this time for giving misleading information to parliament (so, what else is new?), with Akel MP Kikis Kazamias accusing the flying moufflon’s chairman Vasilis Rologis of delaying to submit the strategic plan and most of the figures not making any sense.

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March 5 - 11, 2014

March 5 - 11, 2014

4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

House passes privatisation bill after another heated debate The House of Representatives passed the landmark privatisation bill on Tuesday, in a narrow vote of 30 in favour and 26 against, overturning last Thursday’s marathon session that resulted in a hung parliament and five abstentions.

This paves the way for three of the leading semigovernment organisations to be restructured and partly or fully privatised in stages up to 2018, by when the state should have earned about 1.4 bln euros in the process.

This time round, probably having secured some assurances that were aimed to appease the highly unionised workers at the Electricity Authority of Cyprus and the stateowned telco Cyta, the centre right Democratic Party (Diko) united all of its eight MPs and supported the bill, despite differences with President Anastasiades that resulted in them dropping out of the coalition government last week.

In Thursday night’s session, the party’s recently elected president Nicolas Papadopoulos and two others supported the government bill, while ousted party leader Marios Karoyian and four other abstained, sending the whole bailout package into disarray that would have delayed the next tranche of EUR 236 mln from the European Commission and the IMF. The ruling Democratic Rally (Disy) led the vote with 20 MPs, as well as Evroko’s Demetris Syllouris and independent Zacharias Koulias.

In the opposing camp, which generated most of the noise during a heated debate that included accusations of selling off national assets at a cheap to outright national betrayal and absence of patriotism, the communist Akel party mustered 19 MPs, together with five from the socialist Edek, the

Deloitte gets go-ahead for casino consulting The government has signed a contract with the advisory firm Deloitte Ltd, which was selected on January 29 following an international public tender, to provide consulting services for the licensing of an integrated casino resort.

According to an official announcement, the contract was signed on behalf of the government by the Permanent Secretary of the Energy and Tourism Ministry Stelios Himonas.

The consultants already held a first meeting on February 20 with the members of the competent Ministerial and Steering Committees, set up to proceed with the project’s implementation. The plan, which will determine how many casino-resort licences will be awarded and in which districts, is already two months behind schedule as the government had initially declared that it would adopt a fast-track process

by December last year in an effort to speed up development, employment and investment.

The consultant will now advise the government whether to start with an outright project or in stages, and whether this could begin by the end of 2014.

Greens’ MP and Nicos Koutsou, formerly of Evroko and now the sole deputy for the Citizens’ Allianmce that has opposed the bailout, the memorandum signed with the international lenders and the privatisation deal.

To date no viable counter proposal has been put forward, either by opponents of the privatization bill, or even the trade unions that have rejected every offer and went as far as to cut off power distribution islandwide over the past two weeks.

Cyta staff went on strike, but telecoms seemed to be working, while staff at the Ports Authority and the dock workers caused several ships to remain anchored in Limassol port or unable to approach to offload and pick up valuable cargo, causing hundreds of thousands worth of damage.

Farmers were mostly annoyed as their orange and potato exports with refrigerated containers missed several shipments, adding to their frustration caused by the ongoing drought that is hampering the troubled agriculture sector.

Alternative energy producers and operators or solar and wind parks called for an immediate liberalisation of the power distribution network, currently monitored by the Raek watchdog, while in the telecoms sector, rival MTN was delighted at the Cyta stoppages that caused 14,000 subscribers to switch from the state telco to the private operator in December alone, it said.

The amended bill provides the legal framework which will oversee the privatisation of the SGOs as well as the establishment of relevant bodies to oversee the process.

The House Finance Committee had met in a closed session earlier in the day and discussed the bill in its amended form, in the presence of Finance Minister Harris Georgiades and Attorney General Costas Clerides.

Rejecting the bill would have meant that the Cyprus government would miss the March 5 deadline and approval at the next Eurogroup of Eurozone finance ministers on March 10 and that the aid would not be paid leaving civil servants in limbo and probably unpaid at the end of March.

The ruling Disy and Diko MPs said the amendments also included provisions to safeguard national security issues and to consult with the House on the name of the ‘privatisation czar’ before his or her appointment.

In a statement after the passage of the bill, government spokesman Christos Stylianides said that the vote “reinstates the level of credibility and prestige the country has managed to attain over the past year during which the people of Cyprus had to make great sacrifices.”

Stylianides added that the decision paves the way for the implementation of certain provisions of the bill which aim to modernise and restructure the SGOs, to the benefit of the staff, consumers and the economy in general.

The process, he noted, will offer new possibilities and the framework to improve the economy’s growth prospects with a view of recovering from the crisis.

Finance Minister Harris Georgiades was also relieved that the bill was passed and that it would not put him an awkward position at the next Eurogroup meeting.

He said that the approval of the privatisations bill opens the way to modernisation and reform.

“Apart from being an obligation of Cyprus vis-à-vis its international lenders, the privatisations programme constitutes an opportunity to attract investments, enhance performance and competitiveness and less state in important sectors of the economy,” he pointed out.

191 mln H elle nic Bank lo s s e s ris e t o €1

The Hellenic Bank announced losses of EUR 191 mln for 2013, compared to 23.4 mln losses in 2012, with the lender saying that the losses include the EUR 29 mln cost of the disposal of the branch network in Greece. According to the bank’s preliminary financial results for the year that ended on December 31, 2013, the rate of non performing loans reached 45.7% of its gross loans portfolio. Gross loans and advances to Cyprus customers stood at EUR 4.4 bln, recording an annual decrease of 6%. Deposits also declined by 23% since December 2012, to EUR 5.5 bln.

The net loans to deposit ratio stood at 65%, with no funding from the European Central Bank, the Emergency Liquidity Assistance and with no dependency on the interbank market.

An announcement by the bank said that 2014 is expected to be another year of recession, adding that the Hellenic Bank Group will focus on managing credit risk efficiently.

It is also noted that the gradual lifting of temporary restrictive

financial measures will reinforce the credibility of the financial system and the bank’s development prospects.

Eurobank profits reach €35mln Eurobank Cyprus, the wholly owned subsidiary of the EFG Eurobank Group, announced post-provision and after-tax profits of EUR 35 mln for 2013.

The bank said that its capital adequacy rate is at a healthy 45% with significant liquidity which allows it to fund the Cypriot economy and support development initiatives.

Eurobank Cyprus said that its loan portfolio is of a high caliber

which allows this to act as a buffer against risks that are ongoing in the Cyprus economy. The bank has also won the ‘best private bank’ accolade for the forth time in the past five years and said it is determined to continue to provide quality banking products and financial services. The bank’s balance sheet stood at EUR 3.68 bln as at the end of 2013, with a loan portfolio of EUR 1.74 bln and deposits at EUR 2.47 bln. Its capital and reserves were 608 mln.

Pentakomo tech park deadline for investors The first phase of the Pentakomo Science Technology Park (STP) near Limassol gets under way next week as the deadline for the initial submission of interest by potential investors ends on Monday.

From the outset, when the Energy Commerce Industry and Tourism Ministry invited expressions of interest last December, the aim was “an initial attempt to explore potential interest, capacities and to seek for suggestions,” explained Joseph Pelekanos, who heads the STP project.

“This does not constitute a tendering procedure and is not binding for any interested or involved parties,” Pelekanos said.

He said that an access road that connects the Governor’s Beach Area with the Saint George Alamanou area along the coast, as well as the onsite alignment of the internal road

network of the park have been completed.

“Arrangements for basic utility services such as water and electricity supply, sewage and communications services, shall be clarified at a later stage, following an analysis of the results of the ‘Initial Expression of Interest’ and possibly during the next official invitation of interest, tender procedure or the next stage of promotion of the project,” Pelekanos said. The total area for the land is 324,000 sq.m. and there is no limitation to the number of tenants. This means that depending on show shows interest and what their needs might be, the government could even allocated the entire property to a single high-tech investor.

“AS far as the land use is concerned, there is flexibility in the planning and construction parameters, which are available on the ministry website or from the Town Planning

Dept.,” Pelekanos said.

Everything depends on the results of the initial expression of interest, he said.

“The rate for rent and the terms (minimum years), are not defined at this stage. These will be considered and specified in the terms and conditions of the tender that will follow.”

However, Pelekanos concluded that a ‘fast track’ process is one of the incentives the Ministry has in mind, “but further incentives are still under consideration and will be defined later, depending on the interest that will be expressed, suggestions that will be submitted and the further studies and consultation that will be carried out.”

For last-minute potential investors, the documents are available at www.mcit.gov.cy.

March 5 - 11, 2014

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 5

Bank of Cyprus losses drop to €2 bln, NPLs rise to 53% The Bank of Cyprus said on Friday that its losses for 2013 stood at EUR 2.04 bln, 8% down from the year-earlier losses of EUR 2.214 bln, with the biggest headache for the island’s leading lender being the recovery of non-performing loans, currently estimated at EUR 14.04 bln or 53% of gross loans.

NPLs rose from EUR 13.13 bln as at the end of the third quarter, according to the Central Bank’s definition with which the Bank of Cyprus disagrees.

Loans due for more than 90 days were up a mere EUR 20 mln at EUR 13.003 bln as at December 31, 2013, compared with 12.983 mln as at September 30, and accounted for 49% of gross loans, with the bank maintaining its end of third-quarter projection that the rate of NPLs had stabilised, as had the outflow of deposits.

The Bank said the core tier 1 capital ratio was sustained at 10.2% at the end of 2013, level from September 30.

Provisions for impairment of loans for the year ended December 31, 2013 were EUR 1.067 bln, with the provisioning charge accounting for 3.9% of gross loans. Provisions for impairment of loans for the fourth quarter of 2013 were EUR 268 mln, compared to 261 mln for the third quarter of 2013.

CEO John Hourican said in a statement that “the on-going challenging economic conditions continue to pressure the loan book, necessitating additional provisions that

resulted in further losses for the fourth quarter of 2013.”

He added that “despite these losses, the Core tier 1 capital ratio was sustained at 10.2% at 31 December 2013, due to the reduction in risk weighted assets”.

“Focusing on arresting asset quality deterioration, making progress on non-core disposals and maintaining capital ratios are core to building a strong platform for the safe return of depositors,” he noted.

The Group, he said, “is proceeding steadily with the implementation of its restructuring plan and is ahead of plan on a number of fronts. The integration of ex-Laiki business in Cyprus is on track, with branches reduced to 130 from 203 in May 2013. The deleveraging process is progressing well, with the recent

agreement to sell the Ukrainian operations resulting in balance sheet de-risking and liquidity enhancement through the repatriation of funding.”

The bank’s CEO said there were deposit inflows in the fourth quarter of 2013, adding that “the stability in our deposit base and improved liquidity have allowed the release of the 6-month blocked deposits ahead of plan.

Depositors with released funds have generally stayed with the bank and indeed the retention of deposits exceeded expectations,” he said.

At 31 December 2013, gross loans and deposits were EUR 26.7 bln and 15.0 bln, respectively, with a net loans to deposits ratio of 145% (compared to 146% at September 30).

The Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)

funding has been reduced to EUR 9.56 bln at December 31, 2013, down from 9.86 bln at September 30, whereas ECB funding totalled EUR 1.4 bln at 31 December 2013.

Total income stood at EUR 1.174 bln, with net interest income at 999 mln and net interest margin at 3.62%. Total income for the fourth quarter of 2013 was EUR 314 mln, with net interest income at 274 mln and net margin income at 3.87%.

Total expenses for 2013 were EUR 552 mln and the cost to income ratio was at 47%. Total expenses for the fourth quarter of 2013 were EUR 130 mln, 5% lower than the third quarter of 2013.

Profit before impairments, restructuring costs and discontinued operations was EUR 622 mln for the whole of 2013 and for the fourth quarter of 2013 EUR 184 mln.

Losses from continuing operations (defined as loss before restructuring costs, discontinued operations and the disposal of Greek operations) for 2013 totalled EUR 426 mln. Losses from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2013 totalled 77 mln.

The disposal of Greek operations in the first quarter of 2013 resulted in a combined loss on disposal and from discontinued operations of EUR 1.456 mln.

Restructuring costs for the year totalled EUR 158 mln, of which 121 mln relate to the cost of the two Voluntary Retirement Schemes (VRS) implemented last year.

March 5 - 11, 2014

6 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

Gender pay gap shrinks The gender pay gap in the EU, the average difference between women and men’s hourly earnings across the entire economy, has barely moved in recent years and still stands at around 16%, compared to 16.4% the year before, according to the European Commission. However, the gap in Cyprus shrank noticeably and, along with Greece, recorded a better performance than the average of the EU. The Commission published the assessment on the occasion of the European Equal Pay Day on Friday, February 28, marking the date in the new calendar year from which women really begin to be paid for their work as compared to men. In effect it means that women work 59 days “for free” until they match the amount earned by men.

The gender pay gap shows stagnation after a slight downward trend in recent years, with the figure around 17% or higher in previous years. A continuous decreasing trend can be found in Denmark, the Czech Republic, Austria, the Netherlands and Cyprus, where other countries (Poland, Lithuania) have reversed their decreasing trend in 2012. In some countries like Hungary, Portugal, Estonia, Bulgaria, Ireland and Spain, the gender pay gap has increased in recent years.

In Cyprus, in 2008 the gap was in favour of men by 19.5% and shrank to 16.2%, recording a drop of 3.3 percentage points, during the period 2008-2012.

The declining trend in the pay gap can be explained by several factors, such as a rising share of higher educated female workers or the greater impact of the economic downturn on some male-dominated sectors, such as construction or engineering. The change is therefore not solely due to improvements in pay and working conditions for women.

A Commission report from December 2013 on the implementation of EU rules on equal treatment for women and men in employment found that equal pay is hindered by a number of factors. These include a lack of transparency in pay systems, a lack of legal clarity in the definition of work of equal value, and procedural obstacles. Such obstacles include the lack of information of workers necessary to bring a successful equal pay claim or including information about the pay levels for categories of employees. Increased wage transparency could improve the situation of individual victims of pay discrimination who would be able to compare themselves more easily to workers of the other sex.

“European Equal Pay Day reminds us of

the unequal pay conditions women still face in the labour market. The pay gap has only narrowed marginally in recent years. To make things worse, the very slight decreasing trend for the past years is largely a result of the economic crisis, which has seen men’s

earnings decrease, rather than women’s earnings increase”, said Vice-President Viviane Reding, the EU’s Justice Commissioner.

She added that “equal pay for equal work is a founding principle of the EU, but sadly is still not yet a reality for women in Europe”.

Malthus, Marx, and modern growth The promise that each generation will be better off than the last is a fundamental tenet of modern society. By and large, most advanced economies have fulfilled this promise, with living standards rising over recent generations, despite setbacks from wars and financial crises.

In the developing world, too, the vast majority of people have started to experience sustained improvement in living standards and are rapidly developing similar growth expectations. But will future generations, particularly in advanced economies, realize such expectations? Though the likely answer is yes, the downside risks seem higher than they did a few decades ago.

from political underperformance and dysfunction.

The first set of issues includes slow-burn problems involving externalities, the leading example being environmental degradation.

When property rights are ill-defined, as in the case of air and water, government must step in to provide appropriate regulation. I do not envy future generations for having to address the possible ramifications of global warming and fresh-water depletion.

A second set of problems concerns the need to ensure that the economic system is perceived as fundamentally fair, which is the key to its political sustainability. This perception can no longer be taken for granted, as the interaction of technology and globalization has exacerbated income and wealth inequality within countries, even as cross-country gaps have narrowed.

Until now, our societies have proved remarkably adept at adjusting to disruptive technologies; but the pace of change in recent decades has caused tremendous strains, reflected in huge income disparities within countries, with near-record gaps between the wealthiest and the rest. Inequality can corrupt and paralyze a country’s political system – and economic growth along with it.

The third problem is that of aging populations, an issue that would pose tough challenges even for the best-designed political system. How will resources be allocated to care for the elderly, especially in slow-growing economies where existing public pension schemes and old-age health plans are patently unsustainable? Soaring public debts surely exacerbate the problem, because future generations are being asked both to service our debt and to pay for our retirements.

The final challenge concerns a wide array of issues that require regulation of rapidly evolving technologies by governments that do not necessarily have the competence or resources to do so effectively. We have already seen where poor regulation of rapidly evolving

By Kenneth Rogoff

So far, every prediction in the modern era that mankind’s lot will worsen, from Thomas Malthus to Karl Marx, has turned out to be spectacularly wrong. Technological progress has trumped obstacles to economic growth.

Periodic political rebalancing, sometimes peaceful, sometimes not, has ensured that the vast majority of people have benefited, albeit some far more than others.

As a result, Malthus’s concerns about mass starvation have failed to materialize in any peaceful capitalist economy. And, despite a disconcerting fall in labor’s share of income in recent decades, the long-run picture still defies Marx’s prediction that capitalism would prove immiserating for workers. Living standards around the world continue to rise.

But past growth performance is no guarantee that a broadly similar trajectory can be maintained throughout this century.

Leaving aside potential geopolitical disruptions, there are some formidable challenges to overcome, mostly stemming

financial markets can lead. There are parallel shortcomings in many other markets. A leading example is food supply – an area where technology has continually produced evermore highly processed and genetically refined food that scientists are only beginning to assess. What is known so far is that childhood obesity has become an epidemic in many countries, with an alarming rise in rates of type 2 diabetes and coronary disease implying a significant negative impact on life expectancy in future generations.

Many leading health researchers, including Kelly Brownell, David Ludwig, and Walter Willett, have documented these problems.

Government interventions to date, mainly in the form of enhanced education, have proved largely ineffective. Self-destructive addiction to processed foods, which economists would describe as an “internality,” can lower quality of life for those afflicted, and can eventually lead to externalities for society, such as higher health-care costs.

Again, despite a rising chorus of concern from researchers, political markets have seemed frozen.

All of these problems have solutions, at least in the short to medium run. A global carbon tax would mitigate climate risks while alleviating government debt burdens.

Addressing inequality requires greater redistribution through national tax systems,

together with enhanced programs for adult education, presumably making heavy use of new technologies. The negative effects of falling population growth can be mitigated by easing restrictions on international migration, and by encouraging more women and retirees to enter or stay in the workforce. But how long it will take for governments to act is a wideopen question.

Capitalist economies have been spectacularly efficient at enabling growing consumption of private goods, at least over the long run. When it comes to public goods – such as education, the environment, health care, and equal opportunity – the record is not quite as impressive, and the political obstacles to improvement have seemed to grow as capitalist economies have matured.

Will each future generation continue to enjoy a better quality of life than its immediate predecessor? In developing countries that have not yet reached the technological frontier, the answer is almost certainly yes. In advanced economies, though the answer should still be yes, the challenges are becoming formidable.

Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist of the IMF, is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

March 5 - 11, 2014

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 7

How many winters, Mr Putin?

THE RISK WATCH COLUMN

By Dr Alan Waring Skolko zim, skolko lyet? the old Russian greeting goes, meaning how many winters, how many summers since we last met? The greeting fits the current situation following the Russian quasi-annexation of the Crimea region of Ukraine. The ‘we’ in this case is the rest of the world and the answer to the rhetorical question is “about 6 years since we last met President Putin’s neo-colonial activities” when he invaded Georgia in 2008 and assisted pro-Russian separatists in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to secede from Georgia.

The ‘Straw Man’ Argument

In 2008, Russia cited a compelling national interest to protect Russian passport holders, assets and business interests against alleged provocations by Georgians and the Georgian government. Now we have Russia at it again in Crimea, this time citing the need to protect the same interests against alleged potential harm from ethnic Ukrainians and the new government of Ukraine.

The Kremlin has argued that Russians in Crimea must be protected from fascist, ultranationalist, anti-Russian elements who they claim are operating within or for the new government of Ukraine. Ironically, TV news has shown armed Russian ultra-right civilians manning roadblocks in Crimea, while the ultra-nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky is reported as being on a morale boosting tour among Russians in Crimea.

Despite the alleged threat from Ukrainian nationalists, in Crimea they are outnumbered, not organised and without weapons.

At best, therefore, Russia’s case might be described as weakly justified but paranoid overkill and, at worst, as a cynical pretext to annex territory that Russia has coveted since Ukrainian independence and still regards as part of Russia.

Further, the Russian Duma (parliament) has granted Putin full licence to invade other areas of Ukraine if he feels the need. At the very least, the latter puts the eastern Ukrainian industrial regions of Donetsk and Kharkov, with their sizable Russian speaking minorities, if not the entire Republic of Ukraine, under threat if the government in Kiev refuses to accede to Russia’s demands.

Such ‘straw man’ justifications are reminiscent of the very similar arguments used by Hitler in Germany, first in March 1938 with the Anschluss annexation of Austria into the Third Reich and throughout 1938 up to March 1939 with the creeping control and final annexation of the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. It is some irony that Putin keeps banging on about Russia’s historic fight against fascism and the need to crush neofascism on its borders today while quite breezily copying Hitler’s strategy and tactics for the Nazi annexation of neighbouring territories and entire countries.

What Happens Next?

The short answer is that no one really knows. With events fast moving on the ground, by the time this article is published there may well have been further developments.

What is more certain is that Russia intends to use its territorial gains and the threat of further incursions as a bargaining chip to extract major concessions from the Ukrainian government – or else. Not only has Putin

annexed Ukrainian territory, which he is unlikely to let go of unless these areas are firmly controlled by Russian allies, but he could also cut off Russian gas supplies to the entire country if the Ukrainian authorities fail to bend to his will. In many respects, however, Putin’s Ukrainian campaign is also part of a developing proxy political war against the West whom he and his colleagues perceive as having malign intentions towards Russia. That paranoid sentiment has surfaced before, for example in relation to the Georgian invasion and to the civil war in Syria, whose incumbent President Assad is a longstanding ally of Russia. Putin and his Foreign Minister Lavrov appear to believe that the whole world beyond Russia’s borders, and especially the West, is intrinsically against Russia and is determined to destabilise and undermine their country.

The Putin philosophy of Rossiya protiv mir (Russia against the world), which in Russian eyes justifies military adventurism, bullying of neighbouring countries and generally keeping at bay the ‘evil West’, is strangely at odds with the post-Soviet reality of the new Russia. The post-Soviet realpolitik is one based on mammoth trade with the West and a vast array of topics involving collaboration, cooperation and a modus vivendi with western governments and businesses that overall could justifiably be termed a ‘special relationship’.

Since 1998, Russia has been a member of the G8, the exclusive political and economic ‘club’ of the world’s elite nations.

Yet, despite Russia being a key political and trading partner of the West, psychologically and emotionally the Russian leadership and many people in Russia remain stuck in a Soviet era time warp where the West is, they believe, up to no good and cannot be trusted.

The nationalist and ultra-nationalist rhetoric and territorial expansion by the Russian government in recent years smacks of even pre-Soviet times stretching back to the 19th century, a point made by the US Secretary of

State John Kerry in relation to the Russian invasion of Crimea. What is also evident in the rhetoric of the Russian government and its supporters are authoritarianism and entrenched ideological positions all so reminiscent of the Soviet era, when it was believed that right and justification were established by sustained repetition of positions no matter how absurd and unsustainable. Plus ça change.

Costs and Consequences

Russia presumably believes that it has secured its strategic objectives and now has Ukraine under its domination and control.

However, regardless of the actual extent of domination, what is abundantly clear is that the Russian actions in Ukraine will come at a very heavy price for Russia. This much has already been stated by numerous western countries and already the rest of the G8 group has threatened to throw Russia out thus making it G7. Russia therefore would no

longer have a seat at this highly influential table. It is being told in so many words that it is no longer respected or trusted, that it is in effect now a pariah state.

The Russian finance sector has very quickly been hit by the fallout from the Russian invasion. On March 3, the value of the rouble fell by 9% in one hour and the government had to pump in US$ billions to shore up the currency. But this has not been enough to stabilise the currency and further devaluation is expected. As ordinary Russians have rushed to convert their roubles to US$, money exchangers quickly ran out of dollars. With the continuing slide in the value of the rouble, there remains the possibility of a run on the rouble and on the banks in Russia. In addition, share values in Russian companies continue to fall as investor confidence wains. US$58 bln was wiped off the MICEX in one day. The already shaky economy is not that far from recession if the Ukrainian crisis remains unresolved. Military action against Russia by Ukraine or by the West is very unlikely.

However, there are likely to be multiple sanctions by the West against Russia, including trade embargoes, asset seizures, visa revocations and refusals, travel restrictions and general reduction in engagement with Russia both at governmental and business levels.

The West’s response will be to isolate Russia comprehensively and make it pay a very high price financially, economically and politically. Much closer attention to the activities of Russian diplomats, officials and businessmen in the West is now likely, given the deepening lack of trust. Don’t be surprised at diplomatic expulsions and arrests for espionage, fraud or money laundering.

The presence in Cyprus of Russian businessmen and Russian money, and the known propensity of successive Cypriot governments to court President Putin, raises some interesting questions. How will likely US and EU sanctions against Russian banks and business operations in Europe affect those in Cyprus? What effect if any will there be on the Bank of Cyprus, for example, and the completion of the sale of its loss-making subsidiary in the Ukraine to the Russian Alfa Bank Group? Will Russian deposits in Cyprus banks come under scrutiny? Will the status of the Russian directors of BoC be examined?

22 A new Cold War – how many winters?

Dr Alan Waring is an international risk management consultant with extensive experience in Europe, Asia and the Middle East with industrial, commercial and governmental clients. His latest book Corporate Risk and Governance is at www.gowerpublishing.com/isbn/9781409448365.

Contact waringa@cytanet.com.cy. ©2014 Alan Waring

March 5 - 11, 2014

8 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

Sustaining Ukraine’s breakthrough

By George Soros

Following a crescendo of terrifying violence, the Ukrainian uprising has had a surprisingly positive outcome. Contrary to all rational expectations, a group of citizens armed with not much more than sticks and shields made of cardboard boxes and metal garbage-can lids overwhelmed a police force firing live ammunition. There were many casualties, but the citizens prevailed. This was one of those historic moments that leave a lasting imprint on a society’s collective memory.

How could such a thing happen? Werner Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics offers a fitting metaphor. According to Heisenberg, subatomic phenomena can manifest themselves as particles or waves; similarly, human beings may alternate between behaving as individual particles or as components of a larger wave. In other words, the unpredictability of historical events like those in Ukraine has to do with an element of uncertainty in human identity.

People’s identity is made up of individual elements and elements of larger units to which they belong, and peoples’ impact on reality depends on which elements dominate their behavior. When civilians launched a suicidal attack on an armed force in Kyiv on February 20, their sense of representing “the nation” far outweighed their concern with their individual mortality. The result was to swing a deeply divided society from the verge of civil war to an unprecedented sense of unity.

Whether that unity endures will depend on how Europe responds. Ukrainians have demonstrated their allegiance to a European Union that is itself hopelessly divided, with the

euro crisis pitting creditor and debtor countries against one another. That is why the EU was hopelessly outmaneuvered

by Russia in the negotiations with Ukraine over an Association Agreement.

True to form, the EU under German leadership offered far too little and demanded far too much from Ukraine. Now, after the Ukrainian people’s commitment to closer ties with Europe fueled a successful popular insurrection, the EU, along with the International Monetary Fund, is putting together a multibillion-dollar rescue package to save the country from financial collapse. But that will not be sufficient to sustain the national unity that Ukraine will need in the coming years.

I established the Renaissance Foundation in Ukraine in 1990 – before the country achieved independence. The foundation did not participate in the recent uprising, but it did serve as a defender of those targeted by official repression.

The foundation is now ready to support Ukrainians’ strongly felt desire to establish resilient democratic institutions (above all, an independent and professional judiciary). But Ukraine will need outside assistance that only the EU can provide: management expertise and access to markets.

In the remarkable transformation of Central Europe’s economies in the 1990’s, management expertise and market access resulted from massive investments by German and other EU-based companies, which integrated local producers into their global value chains. Ukraine, with its high-quality human capital and diversified economy, is a potentially attractive investment destination. But realizing this potential requires improving the business climate across the economy as a whole and within individual sectors – particularly by addressing the endemic corruption and weak rule of law that are deterring foreign and domestic investors alike.

In addition to encouraging foreign direct investment, the EU could provide support to train local companies’ managers and help them develop their business strategies, with service

providers remunerated by equity stakes or profit-sharing. An effective way to roll out such support to a large number of companies would be to combine it with credit lines provided by commercial banks. To encourage participation, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) could invest in companies alongside foreign and local investors, as it did in Central Europe.

Ukraine would thus open its domestic market to goods manufactured or assembled by European companies’ whollyor partly-owned subsidiaries, while the EU would increase market access for Ukrainian companies and help them integrate into global markets.

I hope and trust that Europe under German leadership will rise to the occasion. I have been arguing for several years that Germany should accept the responsibilities and liabilities of its dominant position in Europe. Today, Ukraine needs a modern-day equivalent of the Marshall Plan, by which the United States helped to reconstruct Europe after World War II. Germany ought to play the same role today as the US did then.

I must, however, end with a word of caution. The Marshall Plan did not include the Soviet bloc, thereby reinforcing the Cold War division of Europe. A replay of the Cold War would cause immense damage to both Russia and Europe, and most of all to Ukraine, which is situated between them.

Ukraine depends on Russian gas, and it needs access to European markets for its products; it must have good relations with both sides.

Here, too, Germany should take the lead. Chancellor Angela Merkel must reach out to President Vladimir Putin to ensure that Russia is a partner, not an opponent, in the Ukrainian renaissance.

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and the author of The Tragedy of the European Union. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

Emerging economies on their own

By JoséAntonio Ocampo There was a remarkable similarity between European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s statement after a recent meeting of the ECB Governing Council and US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s first testimony to Congress: both asserted that their policy decisions would take into account only domestic conditions. In other words, emerging-market countries, though subject to significant spillover effects from advanced economies’ monetary policies, are on their own.

This confirms what emerging-country authorities have known for a while. In 2010 – following the Fed’s announcement of a third round of quantitative easing – Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega accused advanced countries of waging a global “currency war.” After all, advanced economies’ policies were driving large and volatile capital flows into the major emerging markets, pushing up their exchange rates and damaging their export competitiveness – a phenomenon that Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff later referred to as a “capital tsunami.”

Recently, the impact of the advanced economies’ withdrawal of monetary stimulus has been just as strong. Since last May, when the Fed announced its intention to begin tapering its asset purchases, capital has become less accessible and more expensive for emerging economies – a shift that has been particularly painful for countries whose large current-account deficits leave them dependent on foreign finance. In response, Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India,

has called advanced-country policies “selfish,” declaring that “international monetary cooperation has broken down.”

To be sure, emerging economies have plenty of their own problems to address. But there is no denying that these countries have been victims of advanced economies’ monetary policies, which have increased capital-flow volatility over the last three decades. According to the International Monetary Fund’s April 2011 World Economic Outlook, though the volatility of capital flows has increased worldwide, it is higher in emerging market economies than in advanced economies. Boom-bust financial cycles are driven largely by shocks generated in advanced economies, but they are key determinants of emerging markets’ business cycles.

Moreover, the spillover effects of advanced economies’ monetary policies extend beyond financial shocks. Emerging economies are also suffering from the effects of developed countries’ external imbalances – particularly the eurozone’s swelling current-account surplus.

In the last few years, the deficit economies of the eurozone’s periphery – and, more recently, Italy – have undertaken massive external adjustments, while Germany and the Netherlands have sustained their large surpluses. As a result, the burden of offsetting the eurozone’s rising surplus has fallen largely on emerging economies, contributing to their growth slowdown.

Such spillover effects are precisely what international policy cooperation – such as the “mutual assessment process” that the G-20 established in 2009 – was supposed to prevent.

The IMF has created an elaborate system of multilateral surveillance of major countries’ macroeconomic policies, including the “consolidated multilateral surveillance reports,” the spillover reports for the so-called “systemic five” (the US, the United Kingdom,

the eurozone, Japan, and China), and the “external sector reports” assessing global imbalances.

But this system has proved to be utterly ineffective in preventing spillovers – not least because the Fed and the ECB simply ignore it.

Given that the US dollar and the euro are the top two international reserve currencies, spillovers should be considered the new normal.

Adding insult to injury, the $1.1 trln appropriations bill for federal-government operations agreed last month by the US Congress does not include any money to recapitalize the IMF, the main instrument of international monetary cooperation. That decision represents yet another setback for IMF reforms aimed at increasing the influence of emerging economies.

Given the considerable benefits that stable

and prosperous emerging countries bring to the world economy – exemplified by the role that they played in propping up global growth in the wake of the recent crisis – it is in everyone’s interest to change the status quo.

The G-20 and the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee must work to align reality with the rhetoric of macroeconomic-policy cooperation. For that, the recent statements by Draghi and Yellen should be treated as ground zero.

José Antonio Ocampo, a professor at Columbia University, has served as United Nations UnderSecretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs and as Minister of Finance of Colombia. He is the co-author (with Luis Bértola) of The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A

www.financialmirror.com

AÚ. 955

∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 5 ª∞ƒ∆π√À, 2014

30 - 26 ÙÔ ÛÎÔÚ ÁÈ· ·ÔÎÚ·ÙÈÎÔÔÈ‹ÛÂȘ

Τη θέσπιση νοµικού πλαισίου που θα διέπει τισ διαδικασίεσ αποκρατικοποιήσεων δηµÞσιων οργανισµών στην Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία, καθώσ και την καθίδρυση των αρµοδίων οργάνων που θα διενεργήσουν τισ αποκρατικοποιήσεισ περιλαµβάνει, µεταξύ άλλων, ο νέοσ νÞµοσ που ψηφίσθηκε κατά πλειοψηφία χθεσ απÞ την Ολοµέλεια τησ Βουλήσ και παρά τισ ενστάσεισ του ΑΚΕΛ περί αντισυνταγµατικÞτητασ και παραβίασησ Κανονισµού τησ Βουλήσ. Το κυβερνητικÞ νοµοσχέδιο περί ρυθµίσεωσ θεµάτων αποκρατικοποιήσεων, το οποίο είχε καταψηφισθεί την περασµένη Πέµπτη, επανήλθε µε τη διαδικασία του επείγοντοσ χθεσ σε έκτακτη συνεδρία τησ Ολοµέλειασ τησ Βουλήσ και µε τη συµπερίληψη σε αυτÞ τροπολογιών του ∆ΗΚΟ, που επίσησ είχαν απορριφθεί την περασµένη εβδοµάδα, αφού δε έγινε δεκτή, κατÞπιν συζήτησησ και ψηφοφορίασ, απÞ το νοµοθετικÞ σώµα η κατάθεσή του, εξετάσθηκε µε τη διαδικασία του επείγοντοσ και ψηφίσθηκε σε νÞµο, µε 30 Βουλευτέσ (∆ΗΣΥ, ∆ΗΚΟ,

ΕΥΡΩΚΟ και Ζαχαρία Κουλία) να τάσσονται υπέρ και 26 Βουλευτέσ (ΑΚΕΛ, ΚΣ Ε∆ΕΚ, Κίνηµα ΟικολÞγων - Περιβαλλοντιστών και Συµµαχία Πολιτών) να καταψηφίζουν. ∆εν υπήρξαν αποχέσ. Ùπωσ αναφέρθηκε στην Ολοµέλεια απÞ την Επιτροπή Οικονοµικών, η οποία εξέτασε προηγουµένωσ το νοµοσχέδιο σε κεκλεισµένων των θυρών συνεδρία τησ, παρÞντων του Υπουργού Οικονοµικών Χάρη Γεωργιάδη και του Γενικού Εισαγγελέα Κώστα Κληρίδη, µέσα στο πλαίσιο των επαφών τησ εκτελεστικήσ εξουσίασ µε την ΤρÞικα έγινε κατορθωτή η συµφωνία για συµπερίληψη νέου άρθρου στο νοµοσχέδιο, άρθρο το οποίο κρίνεται ωσ πολύ σηµαντικÞ, αφού προνοεί για διασφάλιση των εργασιακών και συνταξιοδοτικών δικαιωµάτων Þπωσ αυτά προκύπτουν ή απορρέουν απÞ το Σύνταγµα, τισ νοµοθεσίεσ και το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ∆ίκαιο, ωσ προϋπÞθεση για την πραγµατοποίηση ή την ολοκλήρωση των αποκρατικοποιήσεων. Το ΑΚΕΛ αναφερÞταν σε αντισυνταγµα-

£ÂÙÈο ÛÙÔÓ ª¿ÚÙÈÔ ÙÔ Ã∞∫ Μικρά κέρδη κατέγραψε στην πρώτη χρηµατιστηριακή συνάντηση τησ εβδοµάδασ και του µήνα το ΧΑΚ, χθεσ Τρίτη, µε την Ελληνική Τράπεζα να συγκεντρώνει το µεγαλύτερο ενδιαφέρον. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ σηµείωσε κέρδη σε ποσοστÞ 1,27%, κλείνοντασ στισ 141,56 µονάδεσ. Με άνοδο σε ποσοστÞ 1,03% έκλεισε ο ∆είκτησ FTSE/CySE 20, ο οποίοσ έφτασε τισ 65,63 µονάδεσ. Ο ηµερήσιοσ Þγκοσ συναλλαγών διαµορφώθηκε στα 262.496,97 ευρώ. Τη µεγαλύτερη εµπορευσιµÞτητα παρουσίασαν οι µετοχέσ τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε Þγκο 135.032,150 ευρώ (τιµή 0,113 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 0,89%), τησ ΛÞτζικοµ µε 24.985,930 ευρώ (τιµή 0,610 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 1,5%), τησ Λούησ µε Þγκο 23.322,520 ευρώ (τιµή 0,047 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 2,17%), τησ ∆ήµητρασ Επενδυτικήσ µε Þγκο 13.830,050 ευρώ (τιµή 0,392 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 1,55%) και τησ Ανδρέου & Παρασκευαΐδησ µε Þγκο 12.926,290 ευρώ (τιµή 0,171 ευρώ – άνοδοσ 0,59%). ΑπÞ τισ µετοχέσ που έτυχαν διαπραγµάτευσησ, 19 κινήθηκαν ανοδικά, 7 καθοδικά και 2 παρέµειναν αµετάβλητεσ. Ο αριθµÞσ συναλλαγών έφθασε στισ 364.

τικÞτητα, λÞγω τησ επαναφοράσ του ιδίου, Þπωσ υπoστήριξε, νοµοσχεδίου που καταψηφίσθηκε απÞ την Ολοµέλεια στην αµέσωσ προηγούµενη συνεδρία τησ, χωρίσ να έχουν προκύψει νέεσ συνθήκεσ ή να υπάρχουν ουσιαστικέσ αλλαγέσ στισ πρÞνοιέσ του. Ωσ αντίλογο, τα κÞµµατα κυρίωσ ∆ΗΣΥ και ∆ΗΚΟ προέβαλαν το επιχείρηµα Þτι η ενσωµάτωση τροπολογιών στο νέο κείµενο επέφερε ουσιαστικέσ αλλαγέσ, ενώ και η αποδοχή εκ µέρουσ τησ ΤρÞικασ νέου άρθρου στο νοµοσχέδιο, µε τον τρÞπο που αυτÞ έχει διατυπωθεί, αποτελεί νέα εξέλιξη, η οποία κρίθηκε Þτι θα έπρεπε να τεθεί ενώπιον τησ Βουλήσ για σκοπούσ επανεξέτασησ του Þλου θέµατοσ. Το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών είχε ενηµερώσει τη Βουλή Þτι η ψήφιση του νÞµου αυτού θεωρείται απαραίτητη προϋπÞθεση για την εκταµίευση τησ τέταρτησ δÞσησ χρηµατοδοτικήσ βοήθειασ και Þτι αυτÞ θα πρέπει να έχει ψηφισθεί σε νÞµο µέχρι σήµερα 5 Μαρτίου 2014. Σήµερα, η ΤρÞικα θα προβεί σε αξιολÞ-

γηση τησ προÞδου τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ ωσ προσ το θέµα τησ εφαρµογήσ των προαπαιτούµενων ενεργειών για την αποδέσµευση τησ τέταρτησ δÞσησ και ακολούθωσ θα προχωρήσει σε ετοιµασία των σχετικών εγγράφων που θα καταστήσουν δυνατή την αποδέσµευση του σχετικού ποσού. Στο νέο νοµοσχέδιο, Þπωσ αυτÞ κατατέθηκε στη Βουλή απÞ την εκτελεστική εξουσία, είχαν περιληφθεί νέεσ πρÞνοιεσ, οι οποίεσ µετά την απÞρριψη του πρώτου νοµοσχεδίου στισ 27 Φεβρουαρίου 2014, κρίθηκε απÞ την εκτελεστική εξουσία Þτι διασφαλίζουν περαιτέρω τα δικαιώµατα των εργαζοµένων σε δηµÞσιουσ οργανισµούσ που θα τεθούν υπÞ αποκρατικοποίηση κατά τρÞπο που να µη διαταράσσονται ταυτÞχρονα οι αναληφθείσεσ απÞ τη ∆ηµοκρατία υποχρεώσεισ µε βάση το ΜνηµÞνιο Συναντίληψησ. ™À¡∂Ãπ∑∂∆∞π ™∂§ 10/2

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

Fitch: ¶·Ú·Ì¤ÓÔ˘Ó Û «·ÚÓËÙÈÎfi ‰›Ô» Ù· ÔÌfiÏÔÁ· Ù˘ BOC Ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ πιστοληπτικήσ αξιολÞγησησ Fitch Ratings διατήρησε τα καλυµµένα οµÞλογα τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, σε καθεστώσ αρνητικήσ παρακολούθησησ (Rating Watch Negative - RWN ) . Τα καλυµµένα οµÞλογα τησ τράπεζασ, τα οποία οι Fitch αξιολογούν µε «B», είχαν τοποθετηθεί σε καθεστώσ αρνητικήσ παρακολούθησησ απÞ τον οίκο στισ 28 Μαρτίου του 2013. Σηµειώνεται Þτι ο οίκοσ αξιολÞγησησ έχει τοποθετήσει την Τράπεζα Κύπρου στην κατηγορία «περιορισµένησ χρεοκοπίασ» (Restricted Default). Αιτιολογώντασ την απÞφασή του να διατηρήσει υπÞ καθεστώσ αρνητικήσ παρακολούθησησ για πιθανή υποβάθµιση τα καλυµµένα οµÞλογα τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου, ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ αναφέρει Þτι συνεχίζει να παρακολουθεί τον αντίκτυπο που θα έχει η τρέχουσα οικονοµική συγκυρία στην απÞδοση

του χαρτοφυλακίου ενυπÞθηκων στεγαστικών δανείων τησ τράπεζασ, καθώσ και στην πορεία τησ ίδιασ τησ τράπεζασ. «Η αξιολÞγηση των καλυµµένων οµολÞγων παραµένει ευάλωτη σε ενδεχÞµενη επιδείνωση του χαρτοφυλακίου ενυπÞθηκων στεγαστικών δανείων. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, υποβάθµιση τησ ανώτατησ δυνατήσ αξιολÞγησησ τησ Κύπρου κάτω απÞ «Β», η αξιολÞγηση των καλυµµένων οµολÞγων θα µπορούσε να υποβαθµιστεί και αυτή µε τη σειρά τησ», σηµειώνει. Οι Fitch αναµένουν να λάβουν απÞφαση σε σχέση µε την αξιολÞγηση RWN των καλυµµένων οµολÞγων, µÞλισ ολοκληρώσουν την αξιολÞγησή τησ απÞδοσησ του χαρτοφυλακίου ενυπÞθηκων στεγαστικών δανείων τησ Τράπεζα Κύπρου και υπάρχει µεγαλύτερη ορατÞτητα για την πορεία τησ ίδιασ τησ τράπεζασ, Þπωσ σηµειώνει.

Tην περασµένη εβδοµάδα η Τράπεζα Κύπρου ανακοίνωσε

ζηµιέσ 2040 εκ. ευρώ για το 2013, έναντι ζηµιών 2214 εκ. ευρώ το 2012, παρουσιάζοντασ µείωση των απωλειών το τρίτο και το τέταρτο τρίµηνο και διατηρώντασ δείκτη κύριων βασικών ιδίων κεφαλαίων 10,2%. Οι ζηµιέσ τησ τράπεζασ το τέταρτο τρίµηνο περιορίστηκαν στα 93 εκ. ευρώ απÞ 142 εκ. ευρώ το τρίτο τρίµηνο. Οι επισφάλειεσ µειώθηκαν στα 1067 εκ. ευρώ απÞ 1339 εκ. ευρώ παραµένοντασ σε ψηλά επίπεδα τÞσο το τρίτο Þσο και το τέταρτο τρίµηνο. Τα µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια έφθασαν τα 14 δισ ευρώ και ξεπέρασαν για πρώτη φορά το 50% του συνÞλου των δανείων τησ τράπεζασ, φθάνοντασ το 53%. Το τελευταίο τρίµηνο του έτουσ τα NPLs τησ Τράπεζασ αυξήθηκαν κατά περίπου 0,9 δισ ευρώ.

30 - 26 ÙÔ ÛÎÔÚ ÁÈ· ·ÔÎÚ·ÙÈÎÔÔÈ‹ÛÂȘ ™À¡∂Ã∂π∞ ∞¶√ ™∂§ 9/1 Μεταξύ άλλων, οι νέεσ πρÞνοιεσ αναφέρονται στην αποκρατικοποίηση οποιουδήποτε δηµÞσιου οργανισµού, η οποία, ενώ το αρχικÞ νοµοσχέδιο προέβλεπε Þτι δεν θα ολοκληρώνεται εκτÞσ εάν έχει προηγηθεί διαβούλευση και ανταλλαγή πληροφοριών στη Μεικτή Συµβουλευτική Επιτροπή, τώρα θα πρέπει, σύµφωνα µε το νÞµο που ψηφίσθηκε, να διασφαλίζει και το καθεστώσ εργοδÞτησησ Þπωσ και τα δικαιώµατα των εργαζοµένων, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων εργασιακών και συνταξιοδοτικών δικαιωµάτων και ωφεληµάτων, των δικαιωµάτων εκπροσώπησησ και δικαιωµάτων που προκύπτουν σε περίπτωση κατάργησησ θέσησ εργαζοµένου σε φορέα υποκείµενο σε αποκρατικοποίηση, Þπωσ αυτά απορρέουν απÞ το Σύνταγµα, τισ διατάξεισ τησ κειµένησ νοµοθεσίασ, τουσ συναφείσ Κανονισµούσ και τισ γενικέσ αρχέσ του Ευρωπαϊκού ∆ικαίου. Προβλέπεται επίσησ Þτι ουδεµία διάταξη του νέου νÞµου θα µπορεί να ερµηνευθεί κατά τρÞπο που να µεταβάλλει το

ισχύον νοµοθετικÞ πλαίσιο, το οποίο διασφαλίζει τα δικαιώµατα και την ιδιÞτητα των εργαζοµένων που απασχολούνται σε οποιοδήποτε φορέα που υπÞκειται σε αποκρατικοποίηση. Κάθε θέµα, που άπτεται τησ εθνικήσ ασφάλειασ, θα διασφαλίζεται χωρίσ να αποκλείεται η εξαίρεση τοµέων δραστηριÞτητασ απÞ το πεδίο αποκρατικοποιήσεων και, πριν τον διορισµÞ ΕφÞρου Αποκρατικοποιήσεων και τη δηµοσίευση του διορισµού του στην Επίσηµη Εφηµερίδα τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο θα ενηµερώνει την Βουλή των Αντιπροσώπων για την επιλογή του προσώπου που θα διορισθεί στη θέση αυτή. Σχετικά µε το θέµα που εγέρθηκε απÞ το ΑΚΕΛ, για παραβίαση του Κανονισµού λειτουργίασ τησ και ειδικÞτερα του Κανονισµού 29, σύµφωνα µε τον οποίο κάθε απÞπειρα επανεξέτασησ ειδικού θέµατοσ κατά τη διάρκεια τησ τρέχουσασ συνÞδου θεωρείται εκτÞσ τάξεωσ εκτÞσ αν νέα στοιχεία ή συνθήκεσ το δικαιολογούν, ο ΓενικÞσ Εισαγγελέασ δήλωσε το πρωί στην Επιτροπή Οικονοµικών Þτι δεν έχει αρµοδιÞτητα να

γνωµοδοτήσει ο ίδιοσ, καθ` Þτι αυτÞ αποτελεί θέµα για το οποίο η ίδια η Βουλή έχει αποκλειστική αρµοδιÞτητα να αποφασίζει. Ωσ προσ τα νέα στοιχεία και τισ συνθήκεσ που προέκυψαν µετά την απÞρριψη του πρώτου νοµοσχεδίου απÞ τη Βουλή και τα οποία δικαιολογούν την κατάθεση του νέου νοµοσχεδίου στη Βουλή µε τη διαδικασία του επείγοντοσ, ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών, Þπωσ ενηµερώθηκε η Ολοµέλεια, είχε αναφέρει στην κλειστή συνεδρία τησ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών Þτι, αµέσωσ µετά την απÞφαση τησ Βουλήσ για απÞρριψη του πρώτου νοµοσχεδίου στισ 27 Φεβρουαρίου 2014, υπήρξε επικοινωνία µε τουσ εκπροσώπουσ τησ ΤρÞικασ για το κατά πÞσο υπάρχει δυνατÞτητα αναβολήσ προώθησησ του αναγκαίου νοµοθετικού πλαισίου αποκρατικοποιήσεων, προκειµένου αυτÞ να τύχει επαναδιαπραγµάτευσησ στη βάση τησ βούλησησ ορισµένων κοινοβουλευτικών πλευρών. Η απάντηση που δÞθηκε απÞ την ΤρÞικα ήταν αρνητική και σύµφωνα µε αυτή δεν µπορεί να υπάρξει αναβολή και επαναδιαπραγµάτευση του Þλου θέµατοσ.

Ã∞∫: ∞Ó·ÛÙÔÏ‹ ‰È·Ú·ÁÌ¿Ù¢Û˘ ÙˆÓ ª∞∫ 1 Ù˘ ∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋˜ Την αναστολή (µε ισχύ απÞ χθεσ µέχρι και την Παρασκευή 14 Μαρτίου 2014) τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ των Μετατρέψιµων ΑξιÞγραφων Κεφαλαίου 1 (ΜΑΚ 1) τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, ανακοίνωσε το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου έτσι ώστε να διευκολυνθεί η διαδικασία υποχρεωτικήσ µετατροπήσ των ΜΑΚ 1 σε µετοχέσ για κάλυψη του κεφαλαιακού ελλείµµατοσ που προκύπτει στην τράπεζα. Η Ελληνική Τράπεζα ανακοίνωσε Þτι ωσ αποτέλεσµα τησ

8 ÂÎ. ∫¤Ú‰Ë €8 ÁÈ· ¢‹ÌËÙÚ· Κέρδη 8 εκ. ευρώ κατέγραψε το 2013 η επενδυτική ∆ήµητρα έναντι ζηµιών 3,4 εκ. ευρώ το 2012. Τα εισοδήµατα του Συγκροτήµατοσ απÞ µερίσµατα σηµείωσαν σηµαντική µείωση τησ τάξησ του 67% σε σχέση µε το 2012 στισ 208,000 ευρώ. Η µείωση αυτή οφείλεται στη µερισµατική πολιτική των δηµοσίων εταιρειών. Η καθαρή εσωτερική αξία τησ µετοχήσ τησ Εταιρείασ αυξήθηκε απÞ 72,27 σεντ στισ 31 ∆εκεµβρίου 2012 σε 76,47 σεντ στισ 31 ∆εκεµβρίου 2013, σηµειώνοντασ άνοδο τησ τάξησ του 5,81%. Παράλληλα τα χρηµατοοικονοµικά περιουσιακά στοιχεία του Συγκροτήµατοσ κατέγραψαν κέρδοσ ύψουσ 14,4 εκ. ευρώ σε σχέση µε ζηµιά ύψουσ 1,7 εκ. ευρώ το 2012. Το χαρτοφυλάκιο του Συγκροτήµατοσ που είναι επενδυµένο στον τοµέα ανάπτυξησ γησ και ακινήτων κατέγραψε ζηµιά 4,8 εκ. ευρώ και προέκυψε κυρίωσ απÞ την επανεκτίµηση των τιµών των ακινήτων του Συγκροτήµατοσ στην Κύπρο.

διαµÞρφωσησ του ∆είκτη Κυρίων Βασικών Ιδίων Κεφαλαίων τησ τράπεζασ και του οµίλου κάτω απÞ 9% (7,3%) βάσει των προκαταρτικών αποτελεσµάτων για το 2013, που ανακοινώθηκαν στισ 28 Φεβρουαρίου 2014, ΜΑΚ 1 συνολικήσ αξίασ 86 εκ. ευρώ µετατρέπονται υποχρεωτικά και αµετάκλητα και χωρίσ οποιαδήποτε υποχρέωση για λήψη συγκατάθεσησ απÞ τουσ κατÞχουσ των ΜΑΚ 1 σε µετοχέσ ώστε ο χαµηλÞτεροσ εκ των δύο, ∆είκτησ Κυρίων Βασικών Ιδίων Κεφαλαίων, να

ανέλθει σε 9% (9,3%). Σηµείωσε Þτι τα υπÞλοιπα ΜΑΚ 1 που δεν θα µετατραπούν σε µετοχέσ, συνολικήσ αξίασ 40 εκ. ευρώ περίπου, θα συνεχίσουν να ισχύουν και να φέρουν Þλα τα δικαιώµατα και υποχρεώσεισ που απορρέουν απÞ το ενηµερωτικÞ τουσ ∆ελτίο. Επίσησ Þτι κατά την περίοδο τησ αναστολήσ διαπραγµάτευσησ των ΜΑΚ1 δεν θα καταρτίζονται συναλλαγέσ εκτÞσ Χρηµατιστηρίου συµπεριλαµβανοµένων και συναλλαγών Over the Counter (OTC).

¶¿Ì ηϿ ÛÙËÓ Î·ÈÓÔÙÔÌ›· Η ΕΕ κλείνει την ψαλίδα µε τισ ΗΠΑ και την Ιαπωνία στην καινοτοµία, σύµφωνα µε έκθεση τησ ΚοµισιÞν, η οποία επισηµαίνει ωστÞσο Þτι τισ σηµαντικέσ διαφορέσ ωσ προσ τισ επιδÞσεισ µεταξύ των κρατών µελών µε το χάσµα να µειώνεται µε πολύ αργούσ ρυθµούσ. Αναφορικά µε την Κύπρο, η έκθεση σηµειώνει η απÞδοσή τησ στον τοµέα τησ καινοτοµίασ µε εξαίρεση µια µικρή κάµψη το 2009, βελτιώνεται συνεχώσ. ΑπÞ το 81% του µέσου Þρου τησ ΕΕ το 2007, η Κύπροσ ξεπέρασε το 90% το 2013 και βρίσκεται στη δεύτερη οµάδα επιδÞσεων απÞ τισ τέσσερισ που έχει χωρίσει τισ χώρεσ. Στην εν λÞγω κατηγορία βρίσκονται οι χώρεσ που κινούνται κοντά στο µέσο Þρο τησ ΕΕ. Οπωσ τονίζει η Επιτροπή, η Κύπροσ αποδίδει πάνω απÞ το µέσο Þρο τησ ΕΕ στη ∆ιεθνή επιστηµονική συνεργασία και τισ δηµοσιεύσεισ, στισ δαπάνεσ καινοτοµίασ , στα κοινοτικά σήµατα και στισ καινοτÞµεσ

ΜΜΕ. ΕπιδÞσεισ πολύ κάτω απÞ το µέσο Þρο παρατηρείται στα διπλώµατα ευρεσιτεχνίασ και τουσ απÞφοιτουσ διδακτορικού. Μεγάλη ανάπτυξη παρατηρείται στα κοινοτικά σχέδια και υποδείγµατα, στο µερίδιο των πωλήσεων των νέων καινοτοµιών και στα κοινοτικά εµπορικά σήµατα . Στον πίνακα επιδÞσεων τησ Ένωσησ για την καινοτοµία του 2014, τα κράτη µέλη κατατάσσονται σε τέσσερισ οµάδεσ επιδÞσεων: -Η ∆ανία,η Φινλανδία,η Γερµανία και η Σουηδία που είναι «πρωτοπÞροι τησ καινοτοµίασ», εφÞσον οι επιδÞσεισ τουσ είναι πολύ υψηλÞτερεσ απÞ εκείνεσ του µέσου Þρου τησ ΕΕ.

-Η Αυστρία,το Βέλγιο,η Κύπροσ,η Εσθονία,η Γαλλία,η Ιρλανδία,το Λουξεµβούργο,η Ολλανδία,η Σλοβενία και το Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο είναι «χώρεσ µε καλέσ επιδÞσεισ στην καινοτοµία» µε επιδÞσεισ οι οποίεσ υπερβαίνουν ή είναι κοντά στισ επιδÞσεισ του µέσου Þρου τησ ΕΕ.

-Οι επιδÞσεισ τησ Κροατίασ,τησ Τσεχίασ,τησ Ελλάδασ,τησ Ουγγαρίασ, τησ Ιταλίασ,τησ Λιθουανίασ,τησ Μάλτασ,τησ Πολωνίασ,τησ Πορτογαλίασ,τησ Σλοβακίασ και τησ Ισπανίασ είναι χαµηλÞτερεσ σε σχέση µε τον µέσο Þρο τησ ΕΕ. ΠρÞκειται για χώρεσ µε «µέτριεσ επιδÞσεισ στην καινοτοµία».

-Η Βουλγαρία,η Λετονία και η Ρουµανία είναι «χώρεσ µε χαµηλέσ επιδÞσεισ στην καινοτοµία», οι επιδÞσεισ τουσ είναι πολύ χαµηλÞτερεσ απÞ τισ επιδÞσεισ του µέσου Þρου τησ ΕΕ. Οι πλέον καινοτÞµεσ χώρεσ έχουν καλέσ επιδÞσεισ και βρίσκονται ξεκάθαρα πάνω απÞ τον µέσο Þρο τησ ΕΕ σε Þλουσ τουσ τοµείσ, απÞ την έρευνα και τα συστήµατα ανώτερησ εκπαίδευσησ, τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ καινοτοµίασ στισ επιχειρήσεισ και τη διανοητική ιδιοκτησία έωσ την καινοτοµία στισ ΜΜΕ και τα οικονοµικά αποτελέσµατα, κάτι που µαρτυρά ισορροπηµένα εθνικά συστήµατα έρευνασ και καινοτοµίασ.

∆¤ÏÔ˜ ª·ÚÙ›Ô˘ Ó¤· Û˘Ó¿ÓÙËÛË ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë-ŒÚÔÁÏÔ˘ Τέλοσ Μαρτίου ίσωσ πραγµατοποιηθεί νέα συνάντηση των ηγετών των δύο κοινοτήτων, του Προέδρου Αναστασιάδη και του Τουρκοκύπριου ηγέτη Ντερβίσ Ερογλου. Στην ιδέα αυτή συµφώνησαν απÞ κοινού οι διαπραγµατευτέσ των δύο πλευρών, Ανδρέασ Μαυρογιάννησ και Κουντρέτ Οζερσάϊ, οι οποίοι συναντήθηκαν χθεσ, στο χώρο του παλαιού αεροδροµίου Λευκωσίασ.

Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε δήλωση του Εκπροσώπου τησ ΟΥΝΦΙΚΥΠ, Μισιέλ ΜποναρντÞ, οι διαπραγµατευτέσ είχαν ουσιαστικέσ συζητήσεισ για σειρά θεµάτων που αφορούν διάφορα κεφάλαια και συµφώνησαν να συνεχίσουν αυτή τη συζήτηση σε νέα συνάντηση την Τρίτη, 11 Μαρτίου. Αναφέρεται ακÞµη Þτι οι δύο διαπραγµατευτέσ συµφώνησαν επί τησ αρχήσ να υπάρξει συνάντηση των ηγετών των δύο κοινοτήτων περί τα τέλη Μαρτίου.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

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¶ÂÚ›ÂÚÁ˜ ÓÔÔÙÚÔ›Â˜ Î·È Î·Î‹ ‰È·¯Â›ÚÈÛË; ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

Νοιώθουµε την ανάγκη να σασ αναφέρουµε τα πιο κάτω που άπτονται τÞσο τησ εύρυθµησ λειτουργίασ τησ αγοράσ ακινήτων, Þσο και τησ στέρησησ του Κράτουσ απÞ εισοδήµατα εκατοµµυρίων ευρώ Για να επιτευχθεί µια µεταβίβαση ενÞσ ακινήτου θα πρέπει θα είναι εξοφληµένοι οι ∆ηµοτικοί ΦÞροι, το αποχετευτικÞ, ο φÞροσ ακίνητησ ιδιοκτησίασ κλπ. ΑυτÞ είναι και σωστÞ και λογικÞ. Σε περίπτωση που υπάρχει π.χ. µια µονάδα (ένα διαµέρισµα) σε ένα έργο/ πολυκατοικία και αφού επιθυµεί ο αγοραστήσ να µεταβιβάσει (µÞνο το 30% περίπου απÞ αγοραστέσ µε τίτλουσ προχωρούν σε µεταβιβάσεισ λÞγω τησ κατάσταση που κατά µέσο Þρο για µια µονάδα/διαµέρισµα των 200.000 ευρώ είναι γύρω στισ 14.000 ευρώ), οι ∆ήµοι/Τοπικέσ Αρχέσ (ευτυχώσ Þχι Þλεσ) απαιτούν την πληρωµή των οφειλÞµενων ∆ηµοτικών φÞρων κλπ, την πλήρη εξÞφληση του Þλου έργου και σε περίπτωση που ο developer έχει 3-4 έργα, την εξÞφληση Þλων των έργων/µονάδων. Ωσ εκ τούτου εάν µια πολυκατοικία περιλαµβάνει 30 µονάδεσ και 10 επιθυµούν την µεταβίβαση, πρέπει ο developer να πληρώσει Þλουσ τουσ σχετικούσ φÞρουσ και των 30 µονάδων και εάν έχει π.χ. 3-4 έργα µε έστω 200 µονάδεσ πρέπει να πληρωθούν και οι 200. Έτσι λοιπÞν και εκεί που υπάρχουν οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι προσ µεταβίβαση δεν µπορούν να την εκτελέσουν διÞτι ο developer οφείλει τουσ πιο πάνω φÞρουσ/τέλη κλπ στο ίδιο και/ή σε άλλα έργα. Άρα εκεί που ο Κράτοσ θα εισέπραττε έστω ορισµένα µεταβιβαστικά, εµποδίζεται απÞ τισ τοπικέσ αρχέσ µε κάποιου είδουσ ακαταλαβίστικη προσέγγιση Þτι “ή Þλα ή τίποτε”. Ωσ εκ τούτου στερούνται οι τοπικέσ αρχέσ των δικών τουσ δικαιωµάτων, αλλά χειρÞτερα στερείται το Κράτοσ εκατοµµυρίων σε µεταβιβαστικά, το θέµα τησ κακήσ διαφήµισησ για µη µεταβιβάσεισ επιπλέον, µε τον ανάλογο αντίκτυπο τÞσο στην ντÞπια Þσο και ιδιαίτερα στην ξένη αγορά. Σε ένα έργο πελάτη µασ το οποίο αποτελείται απÞ 86 διαµερίσµατα µε την πιο πάνω νοοτροπία δεν µεταβιβάστηκε κανένα και µÞνο µετά απÞ έντονεσ διαβουλεύσεισ µε την τοπική αρχή επέτρεψε την µεταβίβαση µονάδων, αφού πληρώθηκε για τισ µονάδεσ αυτέσ η αναλογία των φÞρων κλπ. Στην περίπτωση αυτή απÞ τισ 86 µονάδεσ προσήλθαν προσ µεταβίβαση 31 αγοραστέσ και το Κράτοσ (πλέον του ∆ήµου) εισέπραξε µÞνο απÞ την αλλαγή αυτήσ τησ προσέγγισησ 350.000 ευρώ. Η ορθή αυτή προσέγγιση (δηλαδή η απελευθέρωση ανά µονάδα) υιοθετείται και απÞ τον ΦÞρο Εισοδήµατοσ και έτσι προ τησ µεταβίβασησ πληρώνεται ο φÞροσ ακίνητησ ιδιοκτησίασ ανά µονάδα. Χρειαστήκαµε µεγάλη προσπάθεια να πείσουµε τισ αρχέσ Þτι η προσέγγιση «ή Þλα είτε τίποτα» είναι λανθασµένη. Τώρα αρκετέσ αρχέσ υιοθετούν την επιµέρουσ πληρωµή, ενώ άλλεσ Þχι. Πιστεύουµε Þτι αυτή η Κακή ∆ιαχείριση εκ µέρουσ ορισµένων τοπικών αρχών θα πρέπει να διορθωθεί µια και που τα υπÞλοιπα οφειλÞµενα ποσά δεν πρÞκειται να χαθούν, αλλά θα είναι εκεί, θα βαρύνονται οι µη µεταβιβασθείσεσ µονάδεσ, πλέον οι τÞκοι κλπ. Άρα που είναι το πρÞβληµα; Το να εκβιάζεται ο developer «ή Þλα είτε τίποτε» και Þταν µάλιστα τα ποσά αυτά οφείλονται ωσ επί το πλείστον απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ στον developer (που δεν πληρώνουν ωσ επί το πλείστον - ίδε πρÞβληµα κοινοχρήστων κλπ) δεν είναι η λύση, διÞτι δεν φέρει και αποτέλεσµα στισ εισπράξεισ πλέον τησ δηµιουργίασ παράπλευρων επιδράσεων. Ίσωσ, εάν συµφωνείτε µε την πρÞταση µασ αυτή, να εκδοθεί κάποιου είδουσ οδηγία εκ µέρουσ σασ, για να επιτρέπεται η µεταβίβαση ανά µονάδα, διÞτι έστω και εάν υποθέσουµε Þτι µια τοπική αρχή είναι ανεξάρτητη, η συµπεριφορά/απαίτηση τησ, στερεί το Κράτοσ απÞ τα µεταβιβαστικά, την διευκÞλυνση µετά την µεταβίβαση στισ επιµέρουσ εισπράξεισ, µειώνεται ο φÞροσ ακίνητησ ιδιοκτησίασ στουσ αγοραστέσ που µεταβιβάζουν απÞ το 1.9% στο (έστω ?%) και µε τον τρÞπο αυτÞ γίνεται η εισπραξιµÞτητα πιο εύκολη, ελαφρύνεται ο αγοραστήσ µε την µείωση του φÞρου ακίνη-

τησ ιδιοκτησίασ και ασφαλώσ πραγµατοποιούνται µεταβιβάσεισ. Τα παραδείγµατα είναι πολλά και η έλλειψησ συναντίληψησ απÞ ορισµένεσ αρχέσ ζηµιώνει τον ∆ηµÞσιο τοµέα. Τώρα µε τον τρÞπο αυτÞ εφαρµÞζοντασ το σύστηµα που εισηγηθήκαµε θα αυξηθούν οι µεταβιβάσεισ. Φίλτατε κύριε Υπουργέ, ενώ το Κράτοσ αναζητά πÞρουσ είσπραξησ, εδώ υπάρχει η πηγή είσπραξησ εκ µέρουσ του

Κράτουσ, αλλά στερείται το Κράτοσ εισπράξεων µε βασικÞτερη στέρηση τα µεταβιβαστικά των εκατοµµυρίων, διÞτι π.χ. ο developer οφείλει 5.000 ευρώ γα 50 διαµερίσµατα. Η µη εισπραξιµÞτητα των µεταβιβάσεων (και χωρίσ τÞκουσ, ενώ το Κράτοσ χρεώνεται µε τÞκουσ) στο τέλοσ ο µÞνοσ που ζηµιώνει είναι το Κράτοσ (ασφαλώσ και µαζί του και οι τοπικέσ αρχέσ του «ή Þλα είτε τίποτα». ∆εν είναι αυτÞ κακή διαχείριση που χρειάζεται διÞρθωση;

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

∫¤Ú‰Ë €35 ÂÎ. ÁÈ· ÙËÓ Eurobank ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Στα 35 εκ. ευρώ ανήλθαν τα καθαρά κέρδη µετά προβλέψεων και φÞρων τησ Eurobank Cyprus, για το 2013. Την ίδια ώρα η Eurobank Cyprus, διατήρησε ιδιαίτερα ισχυρÞ δείκτη κεφαλαιακήσ επάρκειασ, που ανήλθε στο τέλοσ του 2013 σε 45%. Η ποιÞτητα του δανειακού χαρτοφυλακίου τησ Eurobank Cyprus Ltd, σε συνδυασµÞ µε τον υψηλÞ δείκτη κεφαλαιακήσ επάρκειασ, αποτελούν ισχυρή θωράκιση απέναντι στουσ Þποιουσ κινδύνουσ µπορεί να δηµιουργήσει η τρέχουσα οικονοµική συγκυρία. Η πελατοκεντρική φιλοσοφία τησ Eurobank Cyprus Ltd αποτέλεσε και το 2013 τη βάση για τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ τησ, που εστιάστηκαν στην ποιοτική ικανοποίηση των χρηµατοοικονοµικών αναγκών των πελατών τησ και στην ενίσχυση τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Στο πλαίσιο αυτÞ η Eurobank Cyprus Ltd κατÞρθωσε να:

- Ενισχύσει για ακÞµη µια χρονιά την ήδη ηγετική τησ παρουσία στουσ τοµείσ των Μεγάλων Επιχειρήσεων, τησ ∆ιαχείρισησ Περιουσίασ Ιδιωτών, τησ Τραπεζικήσ ∆ιεθνών Εταιρειών και των Κεφαλαιαγορών. Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί, Þτι αναδείχτηκε, για τέταρτη φορά τα τελευταία 5 χρÞνια, ωσ

Best Private Bank στην Κύπρο για το 2014.

- Αναπτύξει περαιτέρω το εύροσ των ποιοτικών υπηρεσιών και των καινοτÞµων προϊÞντων που προσφέρει.

- Εξακολουθήσει να χρηµατοδοτεί σταθερά την κυπριακή οικονοµία και να ενισχύει τισ υγιείσ αναπτυξιακέσ πρωτοβουλίεσ.

- Επενδύσει στην καλλιέργεια µακροχρÞνιων σχέσεων εµπιστοσύνησ, διαφάνειασ και αξιοπιστίασ µε τουσ πελάτεσ και συνεργάτεσ τησ που διαχρονικά αποτελεί το θεµέλιο τησ λειτουργίασ τησ. Τα βασικά οικονοµικά µεγέθη εργασιών τησ Eurobank Cyprus στισ 31/12/2013 ήταν: Σύνολο Ενεργητικού 3.682 εκ. ευρώ, Σύνολο ∆ανείων 1.743 εκ. ευρώ, Καταθέσεισ Πελατών 2.471 εκ. ευρώ, Κεφάλαια & Αποθεµατικά 608 εκ. ευρώ, Κέρδη µετά τη Φορολογία 35 εκ. ευρώ, ∆είκτησ Κεφαλαιακήσ Επάρκειασ 45%.

K·ÈÓÔÙfiÌÔ Ì¿ÛÙÂÚ ÛÙȘ ¯ÚËÌ·ÙÔÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈΤ˜ ˘ËÚÂۛ˜ ·fi ÙÔ CIIM Το καινοτÞµο µεταπτυχιακÞ πρÞγραµµα, MSc Financial Services, προσφέρει το Cyprus International Institute Of Management (CIIM), λÞγω και των πρÞσφατων αλλαγών που έχουν επέλθει στην χρηµατοοικονοµική βιοµηχανία τησ Κύπρου και σε άλλεσ χώρεσ τησ Ευρώπησ. Το δίπλωµα Μάστερ στισ Χρηµατοοικονοµικέσ Υπηρεσίεσ έχει ωσ στÞχο να προετοιµάσει τουσ συµµετέχοντεσ, προκειµένου να µπορούν να αντιµετωπίσουν τισ προκλήσεισ σε εργασιακά περιβάλλοντα που σχετίζονται µε την απασχÞληση στον ευρύτερο χρηµατοοικονοµικÞ και τραπεζικÞ τοµέα. ΕκτÞσ απÞ τα βασικά µαθήµατα στον τοµέα των χρηµατοοικονοµικών, οι φοιτητέσ στο πρÞγραµµα θα έχουν την ευκαιρία να ειδικευθούν στον τοµέα τησ επιλογήσ τουσ, Þπωσ χρη-

µατοοικονοµικέσ υπηρεσίεσ, τραπεζικά, διαχείριση ασφαλιστικών κινδύνων ή στην επιχειρηµατικÞτητα, να κάνουν πρακτική άσκηση σε επιχείρηση που χαίρει εκτίµησησ ή να εκπονήσουν διατριβή πάνω σε θέµατα που σχετίζονται µε τα χρηµατοοικονοµικά. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, οι συµµετέχοντεσ, θα αναπτύξουν µια πιο αναλυτική κατανÞηση των σύγχρονων χρηµατοοικονοµικών θεµάτων και θα αποκτήσουν τισ δεξιÞτητεσ λήψησ αποφάσεων και διοίκησησ. Παράλληλα κάποια απÞ τα µαθήµατα µπορούν να βοηθήσουν αυτούσ που θέλουν να προετοιµαστούν για τισ εξετάσεισ απÞκτησησ επαγγελµατικών τίτλων Ορκωτού Χρηµατοοικονοµικού Αναλυτή CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) και του Ινστιτούτου Κινητών Αξιών και

¶ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ· ÂÎÌ¿ıËÛ˘ ÂÏÏËÓÈÎÒÓ ÁÈ· ÌÂÙ·Ó¿ÛÙ˜ Î·È ÍÂÓfiÁψÛÛÔ˘˜ Το Υπουργείο Παιδείασ και Πολιτισµού ανακοίνωσε την έναρξη των µαθηµάτων για την «Εκµάθηση τησ Ελληνικήσ Γλώσσασ σε Μετανάστεσ και ΞενÞγλωσσουσ Κατοίκουσ τησ Κύπρου» το Μάρτιο του 2014, µε τον τίτλο «Μάθε ελληνικά». Τα µαθήµατα θα προσφερθούν για τα ακÞλουθα επίπεδα: - Επίπεδο A, για άτοµα που είναι αρχάριοι ή έχουν ελάχιστη γνώση τησ ελληνικήσ γλώσσασ.

- Επίπεδο B, για άτοµα που έχουν βασικέσ στο γραπτÞ και προφορικÞ λÞγο.

- Επίπεδο Γ, για άτοµα που έχουν την ικανÞτητα να επικοινωνούν σε ικανοποιητικÞ βαθµÞ τÞσο προφορικά Þσο και γραπτά. Ùσοι ενδιαφερÞµενοι έχουν ήδη εγγραφεί στο ΠρÞγραµµα, θα ενηµερωθούν µέσω του εκπαιδευτή/τριασ τουσ για τον ακριβή τÞπο και χρÞνο έναρξησ των µαθηµάτων, ενώ Þσοι επιθυµούν να εγγραφούν και δεν το έχουν ήδη κάνει, θα έχουν τη δυνατÞτητα να το κάνουν µέχρι τισ αρχέσ Μαρτίου 2014. Σασ επισυνάπτονται τα σχετικά απαραίτητα έντυπα τησ εγγραφήσ σασ, τα οποία είτε θα αποστείλετε µέσω τηλεοµοιÞτυπου (φαξ) είτε θα τα παραδώσετε οι ίδιοι προσωπικά στα ακÞλουθα επιµορφωτικά κέντρα των επαρχιών σασ στα Τηλέφωνα Επικοινωνίασ: Επαρχία Λευκωσίασ: 22 800803, Επαρχία Λεµεσού: 25 877524, Επαρχία Λάρνακασ /Αµµοχώστου: 24 813264, Επαρχία Πάφου: 26 804521.

Επενδύσεων CISI (Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment). Το πρÞγραµµα είναι δοµηµένο κατά τέτοιο τρÞπο, ώστε να ανταποκρίνεται στισ πραγµατικέσ ανάγκεσ τησ εγχώριασ, αλλά και τησ διεθνούσ χρηµατοοικονοµικήσ αγοράσ. ∆ιδάσκεται απÞ Κύπριουσ και ξένουσ καθηγητέσ διεθνούσ κύρουσ, καθώσ επίσησ απÞ επαγγελµατίεσ του κλάδου, ηγετικέσ προσωπικÞτητεσ και διαµορφωτέσ πολιτικήσ, ενώ παράλληλα είναι ευέλικτο Þσον αφορά στισ υπÞλοιπεσ υποχρεώσεισ των συµµετεχÞντων. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να επικοινωνούν στο 22 462246, ή να επισκέπτονται την ιστοσελίδα www.ciim.ac.cy.

∂ηÙÔÓÙ¿‰Â˜ ¿ÓÂÚÁÔÈ ÛÙËÓ ¤ÎıÂÛË «∂ÚÁ·Û›· 2014» Τεράστια επιτυχία σηµείωσε η πρωτοποριακή Έκθεση µε θέµα «ΕΡΓΑΣΙΑ 2014», που διοργάνωσαν απÞ κοινού το Cyprus International Institute of Management (CIIM) και η ιστοσελίδα www.ergodotisi.com, στο χώρο τησ ∆ιεθνούσ Κρατικήσ Έκθεσησ στη Λευκωσία. Στη διάρκεια τησ έκθεσησ, εκατοντάδεσ άνεργοι αλλά και άτοµα που ψάχνουν για καλύτερη θέση εργασίασ, είχαν την ευκαιρία να παρουσιάσουν ζωντανά το ηλεκτρονικÞ αντίγραφο του βιογραφικού τουσ µέσω τησ υπηρεσίασ Seek4U τησ ιστοσελίδασ Ergodotisi.com, σε µεγάλεσ εταιρείεσ που δραστηριοποιούνται στην Κύπρο. ΣκοπÞσ τησ έκθεσησ ήταν πρωτίστωσ να δοθεί η ευκαιρία σε άτοµα που αναζητούν µια θέση εργασίασ, να µιλήσουν µε εταιρείεσ, να λάβουν κάποια αξιολÞγηση σχετικά µε το βιογραφικÞ τουσ και να συµπεριληφθούν στισ λίστεσ των εταιρειών µε τουσ πιθανούσ υποψηφίουσ για εργοδÞτηση. Παράλληλα Þµωσ, µέσω τησ εκδήλωσησ δÞθηκε και η ευκαιρία στουσ εργοδÞτεσ να αξιολογήσουν καλύτερα και πιο αποτελεσµατικά τουσ χιλιάδεσ υποψηφίουσ των

θέσεων εργασίασ των εταιρειών τουσ, κατά την διάρκεια µιασ σύντοµησ γνωριµίασ µαζί τουσ. Η αναµφισβήτητη επιτυχία τησ εκδήλωσησ κατέδειξε την ανάγκη η έκθεση «Εργασία 2014» να καταστεί θεσµÞσ, µε στÞχο την διοργάνωση τακτικών εκθέσεων κατά τη διάρκεια τησ χρονιάσ, οι οποίεσ θα έχουν καθορισµένη µορφή, στοχεύοντασ σε συγκεκριµένουσ τοµείσ τησ αγοράσ εργασίασ. Το Cyprus International Institute of Management (CIIM) ήδη έχει ξεκινήσει µια δυναµική προσπάθεια στήριξησ των ανέργων, µε την οργάνωση νέων προγραµµάτων κατάρτισησ, µε κύριο σκοπÞ την εκπαίδευση των ανέργων σε θέµατα εργοδÞτησησ, καθώσ και την απÞκτηση νέων δεξιοτήτων που θα αυξήσουν την απασχολησιµÞτητα τουσ. Οι εταιρείεσ που συµµετείχαν είναι µε αλφαβητική σειρά οι: 24option.com, Amdocs Ltd, ΑλφαΜεγα, Diapo Ltd, HotForex, Lidl Κύπρου, M.I.E Group, Melior Ltd, MetaQuotes Software Ltd, Panayides Contracting Ltd, Tryfon Tseriotis, Unicars, Voici La Mode, XForex Financial Ltd.

¶·ÁÎfiÛÌÈ· ÂÈÙ˘¯›· ·fi ÊÔÈÙ‹ÙÚÈ· ÙÔ˘ Cyprus College

™ÙËÓ §Â˘ÎˆÛ›· ÙÔ ÚÒÙÔ Î·Ù¿ÛÙËÌ· Ù˘ ¡eo

Tην πρώτη θέση παγκοσµίωσ στο µάθηµα Tax Compliance του ICAEW (Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales), κατέλαβε η φοιτήτρια τησ Σχολήσ Επαγγελµατικών Σπουδών του Cyprus College, Ελένη Καραµάνου. Στισ εξετάσεισ που έγιναν τον ∆εκέµβριο 2013 η Ελένη διαγωνίστηκε σε µια απÞ τισ πιο απαιτητικέσ εξετάσεισ του ICAEW µεταξύ άριστων φοιτητών. Το ICAEW είναι ένασ παγκοσµίου κύρουσ επαγγελµατικÞσ οργανισµÞσ ελεγκτών. Η διάκριση τουσ, εκτÞσ απÞ προσωπική κατάκτηση αποτελεί και απÞδειξη τησ ποιοτικήσ εκπαίδευσησ που προσφέρει η Σχολή Επαγγελµατικών Σπουδών του Cyprus College, που εδώ και πάνω απÞ 35 χρÞνια εκπαιδεύει άτοµα για την απÞκτηση επαγγελµατικών τίτλων σπουδών (ACCA, ICAEW, CAT, CFA) και προσφέρει σεµινάρια για συνεχή επαγγελµατική ανάπτυξη (CPD).

∆ύο ηµερίδεσ ενηµέρωσησ επιχειρηµατιών σχετικά µε τισ υπηρεσίεσ τουσ διοργάνωσαν αρχέσ τησ εβδοµάδασ οι Neo & Bee. Ùπωσ ανέφεραν οι διοργανωτέσ δÞθηκε η ευκαιρία σε επιχειρηµατίεσ και καταναλωτέσ να γνωρίσουν το διάφανο και ασφαλέσ περιβάλλον του Bitcoin. Συγκεκριµένα για να ενηµερωθεί και να “εκπαιδευθεί” ο επιχειρηµατικÞσ κÞσµοσ τησ Κύπρου σχετικά µε τισ νέεσ υπηρεσίεσ τησ Νeo, πραγµατοποιήθηκαν, ∆ευτέρα 24 και Τρίτη 25 Φεβρουαρίου στο Hilton Park στη Λευκωσία και Four Seasons στη ΛεµεσÞ αντίστοιχα, δύο πολύ επιτυχηµένεσ και ενδιαφέρουσεσ ηµερίδεσ. Μέσα απÞ τισ ηµερίδεσ, εκατοντάδεσ επιχειρηµατίεσ απÞ Þλη την Κύπρο είχαν την ευκαιρία να µάθουν για το Bitcoin, αλλά και για τα πλεονεκτήµατα του νέου, εναλλακτικού και πολύ ελκυστικού τρÞπου συναλλαγών που µασ προσφέρει η Νeo µέσα απÞ τισ υπηρεσίεσ τησ. Οι υπηρεσίεσ των Νeo & Bee προσφέρουν σε Þλουσ µασ την ευκαιρία να κάνουν αγορέσ και πωλήσεισ πολύ πιο οικονοµικά και χωρίσ κανένα απολύτωσ περιορισµÞ. Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί Þτι ήδη πολλέσ εταιρείεσ έχουν έρθει σε συµφωνία µε τη Neo και έτσι θα προσφέρουν στουσ πελάτεσ τουσ ακÞµα µία επιλογή στισ συναλλαγέσ

τουσ. Μεταξύ άλλων είναι το Πανεπιστήµιο Λευκωσίασ. η LTV, η Telemarketing και τα SoEasy Stores. Το πρώτο κατάστηµα τησ Neo βρίσκεται στο ισÞγειο του 7stars Tower στην Ηλία Παπακυριακού 21, στην Έγκωµη. Οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να επισκεφθούν το κατάστηµα για να ενηµερωθούν και να εκπαιδευθούν σε Þ,τι αφορά στην εταιρεία, τισ υπηρεσίεσ τησ και το Bitcoin. Εναλλακτικά µπορούν να καλέσουν στο 7777 6544 ή να επισκεφθούν την ιστοσελίδα www.neobee.com

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

| ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5

¶ÚÔ‚ÔÏ‹ Ù˘ ¶¿ÊÔ˘ Û µÂÚÔÏ›ÓÔ Î·È ªfiÛ¯· Κορυφώνονται οι προσπάθειεσ των φορέων τησ Πάφου τον Μάρτιο για προώθηση τησ τουριστικήσ Πάφου στο εξωτερικÞ, σύµφωνα µε τον ∆ιευθυντή τησ Εταιρείασ Τουριστικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Προβολήσ Περιφέρειασ Πάφου Νάσο Χατζηγεωργίου. Η Εταιρεία Τουριστικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Προβολήσ Περιφέρειασ Πάφου και µεγάλοσ αριθµÞσ ξενοδÞχων, είπε ο κ Χατζηγεωργίου , συµµετέχουν τον µήνα Μάρτιο σε πολύ σηµαντικέσ εκθέσεισ, στην ΙΤΒ Βερολίνου στισ 5 µε 9 Μαρτίου και στην ΜΙΤΤ ΜÞσχασ στισ 19 µε 21 Μαρτίου. Ο κ. Χατζηγεωργίου είπε, Þτι Þσον αφορά την γερµανική αγορά γίνονται προσπάθειεσ ανάπτυξησ τησ τÞσο για την καλοκαιρινή Þσο και την χειµερινή περίοδο. Επίσησ προσπάθειεσ ανέφερε , γίνονται για ενίσχυση τησ αεροπορικήσ διασύνδεσησ και την προσέλκυση διαφÞρων ειδικών τµηµάτων τησ αγοράσ µε προοπτική, Þπωσ ειδικευµένεσ µορφέσ τουρισµού, υπαίθρου , κ.α. Είναι µια τεράστια αγορά µε πολλέσ προοπτικέσ πρÞσθεσε, και Þπωσ διαφαίνεται µέσα απÞ µια συγκροτηµένη προσπάθεια Þλων, του Κυπριακού Οργανισµού Τουρισµού , τησ Hermes,και του ΠΑ.ΣΥ.ΞΕ, αλλά και άλλων φορέων οι επÞµενεσ χρονιέσ µπορούν να ανακάµψουν δραστικά. Παρατήρησε επίσησ, πωσ παράλληλα η ρωσική αγορά, είναι και αυτή πρώτησ προτεραιÞτητασ για την Κύπρο και την Πάφο ειδικÞτερα. ΑπÞ τον προγραµµατισµÞ του 2014 διαφαίνεται,- Þπωσ είπε-, µια καλή προοπτική για περαιτέρω ανάπτυξη αλλά σοβαρή ανησυχία , συνέχισε ,αποτελεί η ισοτιµία ρουβλιού –ευρώ που σήµερα δεν εξυπηρετεί πολύ το εξαγωγικÞ εµπÞριο και τισ κρατήσεισ πακέτων για την Κύπρο. ΠαρÞλα αυτά καλή προοπτική διαφαίνεται και για την χειµερινή περίοδο, Þπωσ είπε.

∞ÔÎÙ¿ Ù·˘ÙfiÙËÙ· ÙÔ „·ÚÔϛ̷ÓÔ Ù˘ ∞Á. ¡¿·˜ Με στÞχο τη βελτίωση τησ εµπειρίασ του ξένου αλλά και ντÞπιου επισκέπτη στην Αγία Νάπα, ο ∆ήµοσ άρχισε την εφαρµογή ενÞσ σχεδίου σε συνεργασία µε τουσ ιδιοκτήτεσ των υποστατικών που βρίσκονται στην περιοχή, για επαναφορά τησ ταυτÞτητασ του ψαρολίµανου τησ Αγίασ Νάπασ. Ùπωσ δήλωσε ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Γιάννησ Καρούσοσ «τα τελευταία χρÞνια το ψαρολίµανο αντί σηµείο αναφοράσ είχε καταντήσει σηµείο αποφυγήσ. Η Αγία Νάπα έχει επιλεγεί και συµµετέχει στο ευρωπαϊκÞ πρÞγραµµα για ανάπλαση των αλιευτικών καταφυγίων ο προϋπολογισµÞσ του οποίου ανέρχεται στισ 380,000 ευρώ». ΠρÞσθεσε πωσ ορισµένεσ ενέργειεσ που «άρχισαν ήδη να γίνονται και θα συνεχίσουν µέχρι την ολοκλήρωση του έργου, για διαµÞρφωση δηλαδή του παραδοσιακού χαρακτήρα του λιµανιού του ∆ήµου είναι η κατασκευή δύο γλυπτών. Το πρώτο αφορά το µνηµείο του ψαρά, αφιερωµένο στουσ ψαράδεσ τησ Αγίασ Νάπασ το οποίο θα γίνει και σηµείο αναφοράσ και το δεύτερο γλυπτÞ αφορά την γοργÞνα. Επίσησ θα υπάρχουν ηλιακά ρολÞγια, µια µεγάλη άγκυρα το ύψοσ τησ οποίασ θα ανέρχεται στα 2-3 µέτρα ύψοσ, παγκάκια και διάφορα άλλα έργα, ενώ θα αφαιρεθούν και κιÞσκια διαφήµισησ που υπάρχουν στισ πλατείεσ τησ Αγίασ Νάπασ» είπε. ΑκÞµα θα αγοραστούν βάρκεσ για τοπιοτέχνηση γύρω απÞ το λιµάνι, θα φωταγωγηθούν οι δύο λιµενοβραχίονεσ ενώ θα βελτιωθεί η Þψη των καταστηµάτων και των σκέπαστρων δια τησ κατασκευήσ ενιαίου στεγάστρου. Ο κ. Καρούσοσ εξήγησε πωσ «τα καταστήµατα γύρω απÞ το ψαρολίµανο χρησιµοποιούν έξι µέτρα δηµÞσιο χώρο στην πλατεία και οι ιδιοκτήτεσ των υποστατικών έχουν συµφωνήσει να ρίξουν τισ παράνοµεσ κατασκευέσ. Ο ∆ήµοσ έχει παρουσιάσει στουσ καταστηµατάρχεσ σχέδιο σύµφωνα µε το οποίο θα κατασκευαστεί ένα ενιαίο στέγαστρο προκειµένου να υπάρξει οµοιοµορφία στη περιοχή». Απαντώντασ σε σχετική ερώτηση ο κ. Καρούσοσ είπε πωσ ορισµένα απÞ τα έργα έχουν ήδη αρχίσει να υλοποιούνται ενώ «εντÞσ των ηµερών ο ∆ήµοσ Αγίασ Νάπασ θα βγει σε προσφορέσ για ολÞκληρο το έργο, ενώ αναµένεται Þτι τον Νοέµβριο θα αρχίσουν οι κατασκευέσ του ενιαίου σκέπαστρου».

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com

∏ ÎÚ›ÛË ÛÙËÓ √˘ÎÚ·Ó›· «Êfi‚ÈÛ» ÙȘ ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ Γενικευµένεσ ανησυχίεσ για τισ πωλήσεισ και τισ επενδύσεισ πολυεθνικών επιχειρήσεων Þπωσ οι Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Siemens, Boeing, Chevron, McDonald’s, PepsiCo, Stada Arzneimittel, Carlsberg και General Motors που πραγµατοποιούν τζίρουσ δεκάδων δισεκατοµµυρίων στη Ρωσία αλλά και στην Ουκρανία Þπωσ και οι φÞβοι για µεγαλεσ ανÞδουσ στισ τιµέσ ενέργειασ και ειδικÞτερα του φυσικού αερίου προκαλούν εντονÞτατεσ πιέσεισ στα διεθνή χρηµατιστήρια και τισ οµολογιακέσ αγορέσ. Ειδικά δε στο χρηµατιστήριο τησ ΜÞσχασ αλλά και στισ αγορέσ συναλλάγµατοσ. Πλην Þµωσ µετά απÞ ένα εξαιρετικά θετικÞ Φεβρουάριο. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε άρθρο του Ηλία Γ. Μπέλλου που δηµοσιεύθηκε στο capital.gr, o δείκτησ MSCI All-Country World Index τη ∆ευτέρα, πρώτη µέρα διαπραγµάτευσησ του συνÞλου των αγορών που παρακολουθεί, µετά τα γεγονÞτα στην Ουκρανία δέχτηκε πιέσεισ µεγαλύτερεσ του 1,3% και στη ΜÞσχα ο δείκτησ Micex τησ τάξησ του 11% ενώ ο χρυσÞσ αναρριχήθηκε κατά 2% υψηλÞτερα και οι τιµέσ του αργού πετρελαίου κατά 3%. Η κεντρική τράπεζα τησ Ρωσίασ αύξησε τα επιτÞκια κατά 150 µονάδεσ βάσησ στο 7,5% για να αποθαρρύνει την έξοδο κεφαλαίων και το ρούβλι υποχώρησε περισσÞτερο απο 1% έναντι δολαρίου και ευρώ. Τα δε 10ετη κρατικά οµÞλογα τησ Ουκρανίασ που ωριµάζουν το 2023 είδαν τισ αποδÞσεισ τουσ να ξεπερνούν το 10% και το κÞστοσ του ασφάλιστρου κινδύνου να εκτοξεύεται. Τυπική αντίδραση για τισ πρώτεσ συνεδριάσεισ µετά απο γεγονÞτα αυτού του βεληνεκούσ σχολιάζουν οι ψυχραιµÞτεροι εκ των αναλυτών µε ορισµένουσ µάλιστα να θεωρούν Þτι διαµορφώνονται ευκαιρίεσ στισ αποτιµήσεισ ρωσικών assets αλλά και πολλών άλλων αναδυοµένων που σφυροκοπήθηκαν τη ∆ευτέρα. Σίγουρα Þµωσ δεν πρÞκειται για ένα sell off µιασ µέρασ. Οι ανησυχίεσ είναι βαθιέσ και ξεκινούν απÞ τισ πιο ήπιεσ εωσ τισ πιο µαύρεσ. ΑπÞ σενάρια για µποϊκοτάζ δυτικών προϊÞντων στισ ρωσικέσ αγορέσ εωσ την ρεαλιστική ανησυχία Þτι ένα φτηνÞτερο ρούβλι καθιστά λιγÞτερο ανταγωνιστικέσ τισ δυτικέσ εξαγωγέσ εκεί. Είναι χαρακτηριστικÞ Þτι σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία του Bloomberg η γερµανική Siemens AG πραγµατοποιεί πωλήσεισ ύψουσ 2,2 δισ. ευρώ ετησίωσ στην Ρωσία ενώ η αµερικανική McDonald’s λειτουργεί αλυσίδα 350 εστιατορίων στη Ρωσία και 80 στην Ουκρανία. Η PepsiCo το 2013 έκανε τζίρο 4,9 δισ. δολ. στη Ρωσία και η δανέζικη Carlsberg είναι η µεγαλύτερη ζυθοποιεία εκεί. Η Boeing παραδίδει τα τελευταία έτη δεκάδεσ αεροσκάφη και κατά τισ επÞµενεσ δυο δεκαετίεσ περιµένει απÞ Ρωσία, Ουκρανία, Λευκορωσία και τισ άλλεσ πρωην σοβιετικέσ δηµοκρατίεσ αγορέσ άνω των 1000 αεροσκαφών αξίασ 140 δισ. δολ. Και µικρÞτερεσ Þµωσ επιχειρήσεισ εχουν µεγάλη έκθεση. Η γερµανική φαρµακοβιοµηχανία Stada Arzneimittel πραγµατοποιεί το 25% των πωλήσεων τησ στην αχανή αυτή αγορά. Για τισ αυτοκινητοβιοµηχανίεσ η σηµασία τησ περιφέρειασ έιναι επίσησ τεράστια. Η General Motors και άλλεσ αυτοκινητοβιοµηχανίεσ πωλούν εκατοντάδεσ χιλιάδεσ οχήµατα ενώ κολοσσοί Þπωσ οι Exxon Mobil και Royal Dutch Shell εχουν επενδύσει δισεκατοµµύρια. Ùχι η Ρωσία δεν είναι σε καµία περίπτωση µια δευτερεύ-

µ·ÛÈÏÈ¿˜ ÙˆÓ ÎÚÔ›ÛˆÓ Ô ªÈÏ °Î¤ÈÙ˜ Βασιλιάσ των κροίσων του πλανήτη αναδεικνύεται ο Μπιλ Γκέιτσ ο οποίοσ υποσκέλισε τον ΜεξικανÞ Κάρλοσ Σλιµ ανεβαίνοντασ στην κορυφήσ τησ λίστασ του Forbes, µετά απÞ 4 χρÞνια. Ο Γκέιτσ αύξησε κατά 9 δισ. δολάρια (απÞ 67 δισ. σε 76 δισ. δολάρια) την περιουσία του το 2013 κυρίωσ λÞγω τησ αύξησησ τησ τιµήσ τησ µετοχήσ τησ Microsoft. ΑπÞ την Ελλάδα στη λίστα του Forbes συµπεριλαµβάνονται ο Σπύροσ Λάτσησ, στην 506η θέση ο Σπύροσ Λάτσησ µε 3,2 δισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια και οι Αριστοτέλησ Μυστακίδησ και Φίλιπ Νιάρχοσ στην 687η θέση µε 2,5 δισεκατοµµύρια δολάρια. ΑπÞ την Κύπρο υπάρχουν στον κατάλογο του Forbes τρεισ άνδρεσ. Στην 76η θέση εντοπίζεται ο εφοπλιστήσ Τζον Φρέντρικσεν µε περιουσία 13,6 δισ. δολάρια. Ο εφοπλιστήσ Φρέντρικσεν απαρνήθηκε τη νορβηγική υπηκοÞτητα για να πάρει την κυπριακή. Τα αδέλφια Χατζηϊωάννου είναι επίσησ, στη λίστα. Ο Στέλιοσ βρίσκεται στην 520η θέση ενώ ο αδελφÞσ του ΠÞλυσ είναι στην 988η θέση.

∆Ú›˜ ∫‡ÚÈÔÈ ÛÙËÓ Ï›ÛÙ·

ουσασ σηµασίασ αγορά. Το αντίθετο. Εναγκαλισµένη σφιχτά µε ευρωπαϊκέσ και αµερικανικέσ πολυεθνικέσ αποτελεί σηµείο ανάπτυξησ. Και έτσι οι υψηλών τÞνων κορώνεσ πολιτικών και οι γρήγορεσ πρώτεσ αναλύσεισ περί ενδεχοµένων οικονοµικών κυρώσεων προκαλούν αφάνταστη νευρικÞτητα. Ùµωσ η Ρωσία είναι µÞνιµο µέλοσ του συµβουλίου ασφαλείασ των Ηνωµένων Εθνών µε δικαίωµα βέτο. Ùπωσ και η Κίνα που κλείνει το µάτι στη ΜÞσχα έχοντασ παρÞµοια ζητήµατα µε το ΟυκρανικÞ να αντιµετωπίσει. Η νευρικÞτητα λοιπÞν στισ αγορέσ αναµένεται να υποχωρήσει αν καταστεί αντιληπτÞ το εύροσ των αµοιβαίων συµφερÞντων Ρωσίασ-∆ύσησ, λειτουργήσουν οι πιέσεισ των επιχειρηµατικών λÞµπι στα κέντρα λήψησ αποφάσεων και αποµακρυνθούν οι φÞβοι για κλιµάκωση των διεθνών αντιδράσεων σε οικονοµικέσ κυρώσεισ. Σε αντίθετη περίπτωση οι τρέχουσεσ πιέσεισ ίσωσ αποδειχθούν απλέσ αψιµαχίεσ. Ένασ άλλοσ µηχανισµÞσ µετάδοσησ τησ κρίσησ στην οικονοµία ίσωσ αποδειχθεί Þµωσ πιο απειλητικÞσ. Είναι αυτÞσ που συνδέεται µε την προµήθεια φυσικού αέριου τησ Ευρώπησ απÞ την Ρωσία. Η Gazprom προµηθεύει µε το 25% σχεδÞν των αναγκών τησ την Ευρώπη και µεγάλο µέροσ εξ αυτών των εισαγωγών, συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των ελληνικών, διέρχεται απÞ αγωγούσ επι του ουκρανικού εδάφουσ. Εάν είτε επειδή η ΜÞσχα θελήσει να πιέσει το Κιέβο είτε το Κίεβο να χρησιµοποιήσει το γεγονÞσ αυτÞ διαταραχθεί η οµαλή ροή του αερίου προσ την δύση αυτÞ θα οδηγήσει σε αναταράξεισ την αγορά ενέργειασ συνολικά. Αν και η ΜÞσχα βασίζει τον προϋπολογισµÞ τησ στα έσοδα απÞ τισ εξαγωγέσ υδρογονανθράκων είναι άγνωστο εάν µπορεί να προεξοφλήσει τισ εξελίξεισ και τισ αντιδράσεισ των διεθνών αγορών. Και αυτÞ αποτυπώνεται ήδη στην κατά 2% άνοδο του Brent και την κατά 2,2% άνοδο του West Texas Intermediate. Με την ευρωπαϊκή ανάπτυξη σε εµβρυικÞ στάδιο και εύθραυστη απρÞβλεπτη εκτράχυνση τησ κατάστασησ στο µαλακÞ υπογάστριο τησ Ρωσίασ, Þπωσ παραδοσιακά αποκαλείτο κατά τον ψυχρÞ πÞλεµο η ευρύτερη περιφέρεια τησ Μαύρησ Θάλασσασ, µπορεί να ξανά βυθίσει την Ευρώπη στην ύφεση παρασύροντασ αυτή την φορά και την µεγαλύτερη οικονοµία τησ, την Γερµανική. Και αυτÞ διÞτι η έκθεση τησ Γερµανίασ στη Ρωσία είναι τεράστια. ∆εν πρέπει να δηµιουργεί λοιπÞν απορίεσ ή έκπληξη το -3,44% του DAX στην Φρανκφούρτη τη ∆ευτέρα.

ŒÎÙ·ÎÙË ™‡ÓÔ‰Ô˜ ∫ÔÚ˘Ê‹˜ Εν τω µεταξύ Έκτακτη Σύνοδοσ Κορυφήσ τησ ΕΕ για την κατάσταση στην Ουκρανία θα πραγµατοποιηθεί αύριο Πέµπτη στισ Βρυξέλλεσ. Þπωσ δήλωσε ο πρÞεδροσ του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου Χέρµαν Βαν Ροµπάι οι αρχηγοί κρατών και κυβερνήσεων των κρατών µελών τησ ΕΕ «θα συζητήσουν σχετικά µε τισ τελευταίεσ εξελίξεισ στην Ουκρανία και το πώσ να διευκολύνουν την απαραίτητη αποκλιµάκωση τησ κατάστασησ». Εξάλλου η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση κάλεσε τη Ρωσία να αποσύρει τα στρατεύµατά τησ στισ βάσεισ τουσ και να προχωρήσει σε διαβουλεύσεισ µε το Κίεβο.

∫·Ù¤ÚÚ¢Û ÙÔ ÚÔ‡‚ÏÈ Μεγάλη πτώση στα διεθνή χρηµατιστήρια και κατάρρευση τησ τιµήσ του ρωσικού νοµίσµατοσ, προκαλούν οι ανησυχίεσ για την κατάσταση στην Ουκρανία. Οι δείκτεσ των χρηµατιστηρίων τησ ΜÞσχασ αυτή την εβδοµάδα σηµειώνουν µεγάλη πτώση, µε το ρούβλι να πέφτει επίσησ σε ιστορικά χαµηλά έναντι του δολαρίου και του ευρώ, ωθώντασ τη ρωσική κεντρική τράπεζα να ανακοινώσει µια απροσδÞκητη αύξηση του βασικού παρεµβατικού τησ επιτοκίου στο 7% (απÞ 5,5% ωσ σήµερα), µε διακηρυγµένο στÞχο τη διατήρηση τησ «χρηµατοοικονοµικήσ σταθερÞτητασ». Το ευρώ ξεπέρασε για πρώτη φορά το ιστορικÞ υψηλÞ των 50 ρουβλιών, φθάνοντασ τη συναλλαγµατική ισοτιµία 1 ευρώ προσ 51,20 ρούβλια. Το δολάριο ανέβηκε σε µια ισοτιµία 1 προσ 37,0005 ρούβλια, φθάνοντασ σε ένα επίπεδο που είχε να καταγραφεί απÞ την οικονοµική κρίση η οποία είχε πλήξει τη Ρωσία το 2009. Η υπέρβαση αυτών των συµβολικών και ψυχολογικών ορίων εγείρουν τον κίνδυνο να προκληθεί οικονοµικÞ σοκ στον πληθυσµÞ, ο οποίοσ είχε απηυδήσει στο παρελθÞν εξαιτίασ των αλλεπάλληλων υποτιµήσεων τησ αξίασ του νοµίσµατοσ µετά το τέλοσ τησ ΕΣΣ∆. ∆ιατυπώνονται επίσησ φÞβοι Þτι οι τιµέσ των εισαγÞµενων προϊÞντων θα εκτοξευτούν στα ύψη.

∂› 10 ¯ÚfiÓÈ· 5 ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ ¯ÂÈÚ·ÁˆÁÔ‡Ó ÙÔÓ ¯Ú˘Ûfi Ο δείκτησ gold fix µε τον οποίο ορυχεία, κοσµηµατοποιοί και κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ τιµολογούν το πολύτιµο µέταλλο, ίσωσ χειραγωγείται εδώ και µία δεκαετία απÞ τισ τράπεζεσ που έχουν αναλάβει να δηµοσιοποιούν τισ τιµέσ του, σύµφωνα µε νέα έρευνα, την οποία πραγµατοποίησαν καθηγήτρια του πανεπιστηµίου τησ Νέασ ΥÞρκησ και διευθυντήσ τησ Moody’s. Ο δείκτησ gold fix διαµορφώνει την τιµή του χρυσού καθορίζεται δύο φορέσ κάθε εργάσιµη ηµέρα στην αγορά του Λονδίνου, απÞ τα πέντε µεγαλύτερα µέλη τησ αγοράσ χρυσού του Λονδίνου, στα γραφεία τησ N.M.Rothschild & Sons. Είναι σχεδιασµένοσ έτσι ώστε να διαµορφώνει αυτοµάτωσ τισ τιµέσ µεταξύ µελών τησ αγοράσ πολύτιµων µετάλλων, αλλά ατύπωσ παρέχει έναν αναγνωρισµένο δείκτη που χρησιµοποιείται για την τιµολÞγηση των προϊÞντων χρυσού και των παραγώγων του στισ αγορέσ Þλου του πλανήτη. Ανακοινώνεται σε δολάρια, στερλίνεσ και ευρώ, καθηµερινά στισ 10.30 και στισ 15.00. Οι ερευνητέσ, η ΡÞζα Αµπράντεσ Μετζ απÞ το οικονοµικÞ τµήµα του πανεπιστηµίου τησ Νέασ ΥÞρκησ και ο Αλµπερτ Μετζ απÞ την Moody’s, εντÞπισαν ασυνήθιστα µοτίβα συναλλαγών στισ 15.00 στο Λονδίνο, την ώρα τησ δεύτερησ ανακοίνωσησ, η οποία γίνεται τηλεφωνικά µεταξύ πέντε εκ των µεγαλύτερων εµπÞρων χρυσού. Οπωσ αναφέρει το

Bloomberg, θεωρούν το φαινÞµενο ωσ ένδειξη εναρµονισµένησ πρακτικήσ που θα πρέπει να διερευνηθεί. Η Αµπράντεσ Μετζ «δεν είναι καινούργια» στο κυνήγι των τραπεζών. Η σύµβουλοσ τησ ΕΕ και διεθνών φορέων για θέµατα οικονοµικών δεικτών, είχε συντάξει το 2008 µία αντίστοιχη έκθεση, µε τίτλο «Χειραγώγηση του Libor;» η οποία αποτέλεσε το εργαλείο για την αποκάλυψη του σκανδάλου χειραγώγησησ του διατραπεζικού επιτοκίου. «Η δοµή του δείκτη σίγουρα βοηθάει στην εναρµÞνιση και την χειραγώγηση και τα εµπειρικά στοιχεία δείχνουν τεχνητέσ τιµέσ», αναφέρουν στην έρευνα, που κατά το πρακτορείο δεν έχει δοθεί ακÞµη προσ δηµοσίευση. «Είναι πιθανÞ να υπάρχει συνεργασία µεταξύ των εµπλεκÞµενων µερών», Þπωσ αναφέρουν. ΠρÞκειται για την πρώτη µελέτη που αφήνει ανοιχτÞ το ενδεχÞµενο οι πέντε τράπεζεσ που παρακολουθούν τον αιωνÞβιο (ξεκίνησε το 1919) δείκτη, δηλαδή η Barclays, η Deutsche Bank, η Bank of Nova Scotia, η HSBC και η Societe Generale να συνεργάζονται ενεργητικά για την χειραγώγησή του. Παράλληλα, αυξάνει την πίεση που ήδη υπάρχει για αναδιαµÞρφωση του τρÞπου στάθµισήσ του. Αρχέσ ανά τον κÞσµο ήδη ερευνούν την αξίασ 20 τρισ δολαρίων αγορά του χρυσού για σηµάδια χειραγώγησησ τιµών.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

financialmirror.com | ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7

T√Àƒπ™ª√™ - ¶ÔÈ· ¯ÒÚ· ı· ÎÂÚ‰›ÛÂÈ ÙȘ BRICs; ™˘Ó¯›˙ÂÙ·È ÙÔ ÂÏÏËÓÈÎfi comeback Ùποια χώρα αποσπάσει τα µεγαλύτερα µερίδια απÞ τισ BRIC?s, τισ αναδυÞµενεσ, δηλαδή, αγορέσ τησ Βραζιλίασ, τησ Ρωσίασ, τη Ινδίασ και τησ Κίνασ, αυτή θα κερδίσει και το στοίχηµα του τουρισµού. ΑυτÞ είναι εν ολίγοισ το βασικÞ συµπέρασµα του ΠαγκÞσµιου Οργανισµού Τουρισµού στην πρώτη του έκθεση για τη φετινή χρονιά. Ùσον αφορά την Ευρώπη, η Ρωσία αναδεικνύεται στην πολυτιµÞτερη αγορά για τισ εθνικέσ οικονοµίεσ. Στη δεύτερη θέση έρχεται η Κίνα, η οποία µάλιστα αναδείχτηκε ωσ η µεγαλύτερη αγορά εξερχÞµενου τουρισµού στον κÞσµο, ξεπερνώντασ τη Γερµανία και την Αµερική. Σύµφωνα µάλιστα µε τον ΠΟΤ, η Κίνα πέρυσι αποτέλεσε τη σηµαντικÞτερη χώρα προέλευσησ τουριστών µε 97,3 εκατ. ταξίδια και αύξηση στισ ταξιδιωτικέσ δαπάνεσ κατά 28%. Μέχρι το 2020, ο αριθµÞσ εξερχÞµενου τουρισµού απÞ την Κίνα υπολογίζεται Þτι θα φτάσει τουσ 200 εκατ. τουρίστεσ, ενώ η τουριστική δαπάνη αναµένεται να τριπλασιαστεί. Οι Ρώσοι απÞ την άλλη κατετάγησαν πέµπτοι στισ αφίξεισ, κερδίζοντασ τον τίτλο τησ πλέον ανερχÞµενησ τουριστικήσ δύναµησ. Παράλληλα, η Ρωσία αναµένεται να εδραιώσει περαιτέρω τη θέση τησ ωσ εξερχÞµενη ταξιδιωτική αγορά, καθώσ η διευρυνÞµενη µεσαία τάξη τησ εξοικειώνεται περισσÞτερο µε τα ταξίδια. Ùπωσ συµπεραίνεται στην έκθεση, η εκρηκτική άνοδοσ, Þχι µÞνο τησ Κίνασ, αλλά

και των υπÞλοιπων αναδυÞµενων αγορών, αποτελεί τη σηµαντικÞτερη ευκαιρία για τισ χώρεσ προορισµού, ώστε να επωφεληθούν απÞ το διαρκώσ αυξανÞµενο κύµα τουριστών που επιθυµεί υψηλή ποιÞτητα υπηρεσιών και εµπειριών. Ο ΠΟΤ διαβλέπει εξάλλου Þτι η τουριστική οικονοµία θα βελτιωθεί ακÞµη περισσÞτερο σε σύγκριση µε το 2013, συµβουλεύοντασ τισ κυβερνήσεισ να εστιάσουν στην προώθηση του τουριστικού τουσ προϊÞντοσ. Χαρακτηριστική είναι η περίπτωση τησ Ινδίασ, δεδοµένου πωσ κάθε χρÞνο περισσÞτεροι απÞ δέκα εκατοµµύρια Ινδοί ταξιδεύουν στο εξωτερικÞ για διακοπέσ ή για επιχειρηµατικούσ σκοπούσ. Τα τελευταία χρÞνια οι µισθοί έχουν αυξηθεί αρκετά στην Ινδία, µε αποτέλεσµα ολοένα και περισσÞτεροι να κάνουν ταξίδια εκτÞσ συνÞρων και ακÞµη περισσÞτερεσ χώρεσ να προσπαθούν να τουσ προσελκύσουν. Το ίδιο ισχύει και για τη Βραζιλία, Þπου ο αριθµÞσ του εξερχÞµενου τουρισµού υπολογίζεται σε 9,3 εκατ.

∂ȉÈ΋ ÌÓ›· ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Η Ελλάδα, εξακολουθεί να «παίζει δυνατά» στη λίστα των δυναµικών τουριστικών προορισµών, µε τισ θετικέσ εκτιµήσεισ να συνεχίζονται και φέτοσ. ∆εν είναι τυχαίο πωσ στην έκθεση του ΠαγκÞσµιου Οργανισµού Τουρισµού γίνεται εκτενήσ αναφορά στισ θέσεισ του Συνδέσµου Ελληνικών Τουριστικών Επιχειρήσεων, στο

µακροπρÞθεσµο σχεδιασµÞ του για τη συµβολή του τουρισµού στην ανάπτυξη τησ οικονοµίασ, αλλά και στισ αποφάσεισ τησ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ για παροχή βίζασ διαρκείασ σε υποψήφιουσ επενδυτέσ και αγοραστέσ ακινήτων. Στα θετικά επίσησ που σηµειώνονται στην έκθεση για τη χώρα µασ είναι η απλοποίηση τησ διαδικασίασ αδειοδÞτησησ των τουριστικών επιχειρήσεων. Την ίδια ώρα για «ελληνικÞ comeback» στον τουρισµÞ κάνει λÞγο σε ρεπορτάζ τησ η γερµανική οικονοµική εφηµερίδα

«Handelsblatt», η οποία αναφέρει Þτι, έπειτα απÞ µια ανοδική πορεία το 2013, η Ελλάδα εµφανίζει διψήφιο ποσοστÞ αύξησησ των κρατήσεων. «Η Ελλάδα συνεχίζει και φέτοσ την πορεία τήσ επιστροφήσ τησ», δηλώνει ο πρÞεδροσ του γερµανικού Ταξιδιωτικού Συνδέσµου (DRV) Γιούργκεν Μπίχι, και επισηµαίνει Þτι οι Γερµανοί θέλουν επίσησ να ταξιδέψουν στην Ισπανία, την Ιταλία και την Τουρκία. µ›Î˘ ∫Ô˘ÚÏÈÌ›ÓË ¶ËÁ‹:www.capital.gr

∞ÈÛıËÙ‹ Ë ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Στην Ελλάδα υπάρχουν ισχυρέσ ενδείξεισ οικονοµικήσ ανάκαµψησ η οποία στο τέλοσ τησ χρονιάσ θα γίνει αισθητή και απÞ τουσ πολίτεσ. Την εκτίµηση αυτή εξέφρασε ο επίτροποσ Περιφερειακήσ Πολιτικήσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, Γιοχάνεσ Χαν. Σε συνέντευξή που παραχώρησε στην αυστριακή δηµÞσια τηλεÞραση ο κ. Χαν είπε πωσ ελπίζει και φέτοσ, Þπωσ και πέρυσι, Þτι θα υπάρξει στην Ελλάδα µια καλή τουριστική περίοδοσ, που θα δώσει τα απαραίτητα κίνητρα ανάπτυξησ.

Deutsche Bank: ∞Ó¿Ù˘ÍË 0,8% ÙÔ 2014 ΥψηλÞτερα των µέσων εκτιµήσεων, στο +0,8% εκτιµά Þτι θα διαµορφωθεί η ανάπτυξη τησ Ελλάδασ το 2014 η Deutsche Bank, ενώ το 2015 αναµένει να αναπτυχθεί η ελληνική οικονοµία κατά +2%. Στην τελευταία ανάλυση τησ για την πορεία τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ οικονοµίασ, ειδικά για την Ελλάδα, η Deutsche Bank εκτιµά Þτι η πορεία του αποπληθωρισµού θα συνεχιστεί και το 2014, µε τον δείκτη τιµών καταναλωτή να διαµορφώνονται χαµηλÞτερα κατά -0,6%, ενώ το 2015 οι τιµέσ θα ανακάµψουν κατά +0,2%. Στο δηµοσιονοµικÞ µέτωπο αναµένει το έλλειµµα του προϋπολογισµού να υποχωρήσει στο 2% το 2014 και στο 1% το 2015.

9 ‰È˜ «¶¤Ù·Í·Ó» €9 ÔÈ °¿ÏÏÔÈ ÛÙËÓ ∞ı‹Ó· Καλά οικονοµικά αποτελέσµατα ανακοίνωσε η Credit Agricole, έχοντασ απαλλαγεί πλέον απÞ µια απÞ τισ χειρÞτερεσ επενδύσεισ που έκανε ποτέ, δηλαδή την εξαγορά τησ Εµπορικήσ στην Ελλάδα. Ήταν µια απÞ τισ επενδύσεισ µε κακÞ timing, Þπωσ γράφουν κοµψά οι «Financial Times», που έγινε µετά την εισαγωγή τησ γαλλικήσ τράπεζασ στο Χρηµατιστήριο, το 2001. Οι Γάλλοι πλήρωσαν για την Εµπορική 2,2 δισ. ευρώ το 2006 και τα επÞµενα έξι χρÞνια, µέχρι να την ξεφορτωθούν, έχασαν συνολικά το µυθικÞ ποσÞ των 9 δισ. ευρώ, απÞ διαγραφέσ «κÞκκινων» δανείων και ενέσεισ κεφαλαίων στην Εµπορική. Τελικά, ύστερα απÞ Þλεσ αυτέσ τισ ζηµιέσ, η Εµπορική πουλήθηκε στην Alpha Bank µε συµβολικÞ τίµηµα ενÞσ ευρώ. Ùταν απÞ µία και µÞνη επένδυση ένασ ευρωπαϊκÞσ τραπεζικÞσ γίγαντασ «γράφει» τέτοια ποσά ζηµιών, εύκολα καταλαβαίνει κανείσ πώσ έφθασαν οι ευρωπαϊκέσ τράπεζεσ στα σηµερινά τουσ χάλια.

Παρατηρώντασ πωσ µέσα στα τελευταία πέντε χρÞνια έχουν χαθεί στην Ευρώπη περίπου τρία εκατοµµύρια θέσεισ εργασίασ, ο ευρωπαίοσ επίτροποσ επεσήµανε Þτι µε τα µέσα που διαθέτει η Περιφερειακή Πολιτική τησ Ε.Ε. έχουν δηµιουργηθεί 600.000 θέσεισ εργασίασ και αυτÞ ισχύει και για την Ελλάδα. Κάθε χώρα, Þπωσ είπε, υποβάλει ένα σχέδιο στρατηγικήσ απÞ το οποίο προκύπτει σε ποιουσ τοµείσ πρέπει να διατεθούν οι πÞροι, για παράδειγµα στην Ελλάδα στουσ τοµείσ του τουρισµού και τησ παρασκευήσ τροφίµων, ενώ

υπάρχουν περιφέρειέσ τησ Þπου λειτουργούν καλά πανεπιστήµια και άρα εκεί υπάρχουν δυνατÞτητεσ. ΤÞνισε επίσησ πωσ στÞχοσ είναι να δηµιουργηθούν µακροπρÞθεσµα θέσεισ εργασίασ, εκτιµώντασ πωσ µέχρι τέλοσ του 2020 θα είναι ορατά τα αποτελέσµατα αυτών των µέτρων, ενώ παρέπεµψε στο γεγονÞσ Þτι στην Ελλάδα, Þπωσ και σε άλλεσ χώρεσ του ευρωπαϊκού ΝÞτου, το ποσοστÞ εκβιοµηχάνισησ βρίσκεται στο 50% άλλων ευρωπαϊκών χωρών, Þπωσ η Αυστρία και η Γερµανία.

∞ÈÛÈfi‰Ô͘ ÚԂϤ„ÂȘ ·fi Alpha Bank Οι επιδÞσεισ τησ ελληνικήσ οικονοµίασ το 2013 αποδεικνύονται πολύ ευνοϊκÞτερεσ ακÞµη και απÞ τισ πιο αισιÞδοξεσ προβλέψεισ, σηµειώνει η Alpha Bank στο τελευταίο δελτίο οικονοµικών εξελίξεων. Οι επιδÞσεισ αυτέσ περιλαµβάνουν το εντυπωσιακÞ πρωτογενέσ πλεÞνασµα στη γενική κυβέρνηση άνω του 1,1% του ΑΕΠ που επιτεύχθηκε απÞ το 2013, και το εξίσου εντυπωσιακÞ πλεÞνασµα στο Ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών Συναλλαγών ύψουσ 1,25% του ΑΕΠ, επίσησ 1-2 έτη νωρίτερα απÞ τισ προβλέψεισ τησ ΤρÞικα. Περιλαµβάνουν επίσησ την ουσιαστική ενίσχυση τησ διεθνούσ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ τησ χώρασ κατά 22% σε σχέση µε το 2009, την επιβρά-

δυνση τησ πτωτικήσ πορείασ του ΑΕΠ στο -2,6% στο 4ο 3µηνο 2013 και δηµιουργία των προοπτικών για θετική αύξηση του ΑΕΠ απÞ το 1ο 3µηνο 2014, την σηµαντική καθαρή εισροή επενδυτικών κεφαλαίων στη χώρα ύψουσ άνω των 4,5 δισ ευρώ ήδη απÞ το 2013, την µεγάλη αύξηση τησ καθαρήσ µισθωτήσ απασχÞλησησ στον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα κατά 133 χιλ. άτοµα το 2013, µε µεγάλη αύξηση των προσλήψεων, κ.ά. Σύµφωνα µε την Alpha Bank, οι ανωτέρω εξαιρετικά ευνοϊκέσ εξελίξεισ επιβεβαιώνονται τώρα και απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή (ΕΕ) στισ Χειµερινέσ Προβλέψεισ που δηµοσιεύτηκαν την 25η Φεβρουαρίου 2014.

∑ara: Online ηٿÛÙËÌ· ÛÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Σήµερα 5 Μαρτίου θα αρχίσει να υποδέχεται τουσ πελάτεσ του στην Ελλάδα το online κατάστηµα Zara. Η ιστοσελίδα Zara, www.zara.com/gr, θα προσφέρει στουσ online αγοραστέσ την πλήρη γκάµα εµπορευµάτων για γυναίκεσ, άντρεσ και παιδιά, η οποία υπάρχει και στα εµπορικά καταστήµατα. Σηµειώνεται πωσ τα προϊÞντα που πωλούνται online έχουν τισ ίδιεσ τιµέσ µε αυτά που βρίσκονται στα καταστήµατα Zara ενώ οι πελάτεσ µπορούν να επιλέξουν είτε την παράδοση κατ’ οίκον είτε την αποστολή των αγορών τουσ στο κατάστηµα τησ επιλογήσ τουσ, απ’ Þπου και θα τα παραλάβουν. Η παράδοση θα γίνεται δωρεάν αν ο πελάτησ επιλέξει να παραλάβει τισ αγορέσ του σε κάποιο κατάστηµα Zara, πράγµα που θα πάρει 4 ωσ 6 εργάσιµεσ µέρεσ. Υπάρχουν επίσησ άλλοι δύο τρÞποι παραλαβήσ: - Απλή (3,95 ευρώ): 3-5 εργάσιµεσ µέρεσ - Επείγουσα (9,95 ευρώ): 2-3 εργάσιµεσ µέρεσ. Η πολιτική αλλαγών και επιστροφών είναι ακριβώσ η ίδια µε αυτήν που ισχύει και στα καταστήµατα: για ένα µήνα. Η εταιρεία έχει δηµιουργήσει συγκεκριµένεσ εφαρµογέσ για Þλα τα λειτουργικά συστήµατα (iOS, Android, Windows, Windows Phone και Blackberry 10). Επίσησ, οι εφαρµογέσ επιτρέπουν στο χρήστη να σαρώσει το barcode κάποιου προϊÞντοσ Zara στα καταστήµατα τησ αλυσίδασ και να πληροφορηθεί αν είναι διαθέσιµο online.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

5 ΜΑΡΤΙΟΥ, 2014

8 | ΑΓΟΡΑ | financialmirror.com

∞/ÊÔÈ §·Ó›ÙË: ™ÙÔ Î˘ÚÈ·Îfi ÙÚ·¤˙È Ì 182 ÚÔ˚fiÓÙ· Τα 70 τησ χρÞνια στην κυπριακή αγορά γιορτάζει φέτοσ η εταιρεία Α/φοι Λανίτη. Η εταιρεία Α/φοί Λανίτη έχει επενδύσει πέραν των 51 εκ. ευρώ στην Κύπρο τα τελευταία 8 χρÞνια και η γκάµα των προϊÞντων τησ αριθµεί 182 διαφορετικά προϊÞντα απÞ ανθρακούχα και µη αναψυκτικά, χυµούσ, φρέσκο γάλα και γαλακτοκοµικά, νερÞ, καφέδεσ, εκ των οποίων το 80% παράγεται στην Κύπρο. Η Αφοί Λανίτη αποτελεί επίσησ µέλοσ του πολυεθνικού Οµίλου Coca-Cola HBC, του δεύτερου µεγαλύτερου εµφιαλωτή, παγκοσµίωσ, προϊÞντων τησ εταιρείασ The Coca-Cola Company, αλλά και αναψυκτικών προϊÞντων εν γένει, µε διεθνή παρουσία σε 28 χώρεσ, Þπου εξυπηρετεί περισσÞτερουσ απÞ 581 εκατοµµύρια ανθρώπουσ. Η Αφοί Λανίτησ παράγει, διανέµει και εµπορεύεται προϊÞντα τησ The Coca-Cola Company (Coca-Cola, Fanta, Sprite, Powerade, Nestea (κοινοπραξία µε Nestle), τον έτοιµο προσ πÞση καφέ illycafe (κοινοπραξία µε illy), τα mixers Schweppes), καθώσ και δικά τησ προϊÞντα, που περιλαµβάνουν τισ σειρέσ χυµών και γάλακτοσ Λανίτησ, τα φυσικÞ νερÞ ΚΥΚΚΟΣ και το φυσικÞ µεταλλικÞ νερÞ ΑΥΡΑ και τα ενεργειακά ποτά Monster, ενώ διανέµει τα γαλακτοκοµικά προϊÞντα ΦΑΓΕ και Pittas.

«ŒÍ˘Ó·» ÚÔÁÚ¿ÌÌ·Ù· Û˘Ì‚ÔÏ·›Ô˘ ·fi ÙËÓ ª∆¡ Tα νέα προγράµµατα MTN Smart παρουσίασε και επίσηµα η ΜΤΝ Κύπρου. Τα τέσσερα πλάνα ΜΤΝ Smart, που προσφέρουν µέχρι και απεριÞριστα λεπτά οµιλίασ και SMS προσ Þλουσ, καθώσ και µέχρι και 2GB Þγκο δεδοµένων, σχεδιάστηκαν για να εξασφαλίσουν στον καταναλωτή χαµηλÞτερεσ τιµέσ, περισσÞτερα προνÞµια και µεγαλύτερη ευελιξία. Οι νέοι συνδροµητέσ µεταφέροντασ τον αριθµÞ τουσ σε 24µηνο συµβÞλαιο MTN Smart µέχρι τισ 31 Μαρτίου, θα µπορούν να επωφεληθούν µε έξι µήνεσ δωρεάν πάγιο ή µε µέχρι 200 ευρώ έκπτωση για αγορά νέασ συσκευήσ. Οι υφιστάµενοι συνδροµητέσ, των οποίων το συµβÞλαιο λήγει, µπορούν να ανανεώσουν το συµβÞλαιο τουσ χωρίσ καµία επιβάρυνση, αλλάζοντασ το πλάνο τουσ σε MTN Smart και να επωφεληθούν µε έκπτωση στη συσκευή, είτε έκπτωση στη συσκευή και άτοκεσ µηνιαίεσ δÞσεισ, είτε έκπτωση στο λογαριασµÞ. Ùπωσ ανέφερε ο ∆ιευθύνων Σύµβουλοσ τησ MTN, Philip van Dalsen «Σε µια εποχή οικονοµικών δυσκολιών, η MTN προσφέρει τη δυνατÞτητα σε Þλουσ να έχουν ποιοτικέσ τηλεπικοινωνίεσ σε προσιτή τιµή”.

¡¤Ô ÈÏÔÙÈÎfi ‰È·Ì¤ÚÈÛÌ· ÛÙÔ «Leptos Aphrodite Gardens» Την δηµιουργία του νέου τησ πιλοτικού διαµερίσµατοσ (Show flat) στο Þµορφο και εντυπωσιακÞ αναπτυξιακÞ συγκρÞτηµα ‘Aphrodite Gardens’ στην Κάτω Πάφο, ανακοίνωσε η εταιρεία Leptos Estates. Το πρωτοποριακÞ συγκρÞτηµα βρίσκεται στη Τουριστική περιοχή τησ Κ. Πάφου σε απÞσταση άνετου περιπάτου απÞ τισ αµµώδεισ παραλίεσ και τα πολυτελή παραθαλάσσια ξενοδοχεία. Συνορεύει επίσησ µε την µεγάλη έκταση γησ 1,2 εκ τ.µ του Οµίλου ΛεπτÞσ Þπου θα αναπτυχθεί σύντοµα το µεγαλεπήβολο έργο «Neapolis Smart Eco City» µε το οµώνυµο Πανεπιστήµιο, το ΙατρικÞ Κέντρο, το Κέντρο Έρευνασ και Ανάπτυξησ , καθώσ επίσησ εµπορικά καταστήµατα, γραφεία και ένα εκλεκτικÞ χαρτοφυλάκιο κατοικιών. Το «Aphrodite Gardens» αποτελείται απÞ έξι τριώροφα κτίρια µε πολυτελή διαµερίσµατα και ρετιρέ καθώσ επίσησ 60 εντυπωσιακέσ επαύλεισ τισ οποίεσ περιτριγυρίζουν δύο µεγάλεσ κοινÞχρηστεσ πισίνεσ µε τουσ τεράστιουσ κήπουσ και χώρουσ πρασίνου.

300,000 ‰ËÌÔÚ·Ù‹ıËÎÂ Ë Harley ÙÔ˘ ¶¿· ºÚ·ÁΛÛÎÔ˘ €3 Η Harley Davidson που δωρίθηκε απÞ τον ίδιο τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ εταιρείασ στον Πάπα Φραγκίσκο έπιασε τα 300.000 ευρώ σε δηµοπρασία που έγινε πριν µερικέσ µέρεσ στο Παρίσι. Θυµίζουµε Þτι ο Πάπασ Φραγκίσκοσ είχε υπογράψει τη δεξαµενή τησ Dyna Super Glide και το δερµάτινο µπουφάν σε ειδική τελετή που πραγµατοποιήθηκε στο ΒατικανÞ το Νοέµβριο στο πλαίσιο των εορτασµών για τα 110 χρÞνια τησ. Συγκεκριµένα, τÞσο η Harley-Davidson Dyna Super Glide Þσο και το αντίστοιχο δερµάτινο µπουφάν που είχαν χαριστεί στον Πάπα «έπιασαν» το ποσÞ τον 299 χιλιάδων ευρώ. Το Harley-Davidson δερµάτινο µπουφάν το οποίο επίσησ έχει υπογραφεί απÞ τον Πάπα Φραγκίσκο πωλήθηκε σε διαφορετικÞ αγοραστή, απÞ τισ ΗΠΑ, για 57.500 ευρώ. Τα έσοδα, Þπωσ και είχε ανακοινωθεί νωρίτερα θα διατεθούν για φιλανθρωπικούσ σκοπούσ και συγκεκριµένα για την ανακαίνιση του κέντρου αστέγων τησ Caritas, Don Luigi di Liegro στη Ρώµη, συνδράµοντασ στο έργο του που περιλαµβάνει τη σίτιση και τη φιλοξενία περίπου 1.000 ατÞµων ηµερησίωσ.

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¢Â›Ù ÙËÓ Ú·ÁÌ·ÙÈÎfiÙËÙ· Ì Google Glasses Οι λάτρεισ τησ τεχνολογίασ στην Κύπρο µπορούν να δουν, να δοκιµάσουν, να επεξεργαστούν και να αποκτήσουν ολοκληρωµένη εµπειρία απÞ τα καινοτοµικά Google Glasses µÞνο στα Public! Το Google Glass φοριέται ακριβώσ Þπωσ ένα ζευγάρι γυαλιά. Αντί για γυάλινουσ φακούσ διαθέτει µια οθÞνη στο ύψοσ του δεξιού µατιού και αλλάζει, µέσω του διαδικτύου αλλάζει τον τρÞπο µε τον οποίο βιώνουµε την πραγµατικÞτητα! ΜÞνο 8.000 Google Glasses υπάρχουν στον κÞσµο και 10 απÞ αυτά βρίσκονται στα Public στην Κύπρο.

H επαυξηµένη εµπειρία τησ πραγµατικÞτητασ σηµαίνει Þτι οτιδήποτε βλέπουµε µπορεί να εµπλουτιστεί µε προβολή επιπλέον πληροφοριών, απÞ το διαδίκτυο την ίδια στιγµή, απÞ οδηγίεσ πλοήγησησ µέχρι βίντεο µε αυτÞ που βλέπουν τα µάτια σασ. Οτιδήποτε βλέπουµε είναι δυνατÞ να µεταδοθεί: Με φωνητικέσ εντολέσ µπορούµε να βγάλουµε φωτογραφίεσ ή να γυρίσουµε 720p HD βίντεο, να µπούµε στο facebook, να συνοµιλήσουµε µέσω βίντεο ή να στείλουµε mail! Τα wearable gadgets είναι διαθέσιµα για δοκιµή αλλά και αγορά κατÞπιν παραγγελίασ.

∏ Carrefour ÛÙËÚ›˙ÂÈ ∫‡ÚÔ Î·È πÙ·Ï›· Ο Ùµιλοσ Carrefour Κύπρου ήταν ο χορηγÞσ τÞσο στο Gourmet Gala Dinner Þσο και στα µαθήµατα µαγειρικήσ που διοργανώθηκαν απÞ τον ΚυπροϊταλικÞ Σύνδεσµο Επιχειρηµατιών. Ùπωσ κάθε χρÞνο, έτσι και φέτοσ, ο ΚυπροϊταλικÞσ Σύνδεσµοσ Επιχειρηµατιών διοργάνωσε Gala Dinner και µαθήµατα µαγειρικήσ, στο πλαίσιο των δραστηριοτήτων του για την προώθηση των δράσεων του Συνδέσµου, αλλά και για την ενίσχυση των σχέσεων µεταξύ Κύπρου και Ιταλίασ. Το Gala Dinner, είχε φιλανθρωπικÞ χαρακτήρα, δεδοµένου Þτι Þλα τα καθαρά έσοδα προσφέρθηκαν στον ΕρυθρÞ ΣταυρÞ Κύπρου. Στο πλαίσιο των παράλληλων δραστηριοτήτων του Συνδέσµου, ο chef Angelo Di Lena παρέδωσε µαθήµατα µαγειρικήσ.

√È Ô‰ÔÛÊ·ÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ÚÔÙÈÌÔ‡Ó ÙÔ Actimel Μια ακÞµη γνωστή ποδοσφαιρική οµάδα, η Βαλέντσια Ισπανίασ που ήλθε εκτάκτωσ στην Κύπρο και αγωνίστηκε το βράδυ τησ Πέµπτησ 20 Φεβρουαρίου 2014 στο στάδιο ΓΣΠ Λευκωσίασ, µε αντίπαλο τη ∆υναµÞ Κιέβου, ζήτησε για τη διατροφή των ποδοσφαιριστών τησ το ρÞφηµα γιαουρτιού ActimelΤΜ απÞ την Danone. Η Argosy Trading Company Limited, µέλοσ τησ CTC και του Οµίλου ΣιακÞλα, εισαγωγείσ και διανοµείσ των προϊÞντων Danone στην Κύπρο, εξυπηρέτησε µε προθυµία την αποστολή τησ Βαλέντσια και τησ προµήθευσε το προϊÞν.

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March 5 - 11, 2014

March 5 - 11, 2014

18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

World watches the situation in Ukraine unfold

By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary

The ongoing political tensions in the Ukraine came to a head in November 2013 when then-president Victor Yanukovich rejected a trade agreement with the EU in favour of one with Russia. The result was less than flattering as masses of people took to the streets in protest. The political tensions run a lot deeper, especially since Vladimir Putin feels emboldened against what appears to be an increasingly benign American president.

Moscow is reluctant to allow Western influence to encroach upon what it deems to be pro-Russian territory in the Ukraine. This manifests in an ideological battle between the prospect of a pro-NATO Ukraine and a pro Russia Ukraine. Analysts point to the fact that it may be premature to liken this scenario to the erstwhile Cold War tensions between Russia and the USA. What is crystal clear is that Moscow is determined to exert its authority in the region, regardless of Western opposition. It may well be that the Russians are looking to save face after a pro-Russian leader was ousted from power in the Ukraine.

In any event, Russia is determined to protect the Russian minorities and all regions that

were formerly under Soviet control. Russia has thousands of troops stationed in former satellite Soviet states – even to this day.

Consider Georgia as a case in point.

On Saturday, 1 March 2014 the Russian parliament unanimously adopted a resolution to authorise the use of force, if so required in the Ukraine, to protect Russians in the region.

Ukrainians complained vehemently that their sovereignty was being undermined by the Russian soldiers and occupation. Various scenarios have been painted in this unfolding drama, none of which offer a positive outlook if they come to fruition. For example, the Russians may decide to act in the event that their fleet in the Black Sea in Crimea is attacked. A Russian naval base has been stationed in that region for over 300 years.

Ukrainian officials have issued a stern warning to the Russians that any military incursion would be tantamount to an act of war. This comes hot on the heels of the Kremlin’s decision to empower Putin to send Russian troops into Crimea. The reigning Prime Minister of Ukraine – Arseniy Yatsenyuk - declared that his country would safeguard its sovereignty from Russian intervention. As such, the Ukrainian military has been put on full alert, for the protection and preservation of the integrity of Ukraine. There is no doubt that the Russian President is usurping the current turmoil as an excuse to pour in military might into pro-Russian enclaves in the Ukraine. In

Putin’s defence, there are large Russian communities and populations scattered throughout the region. He is well aware that the new government is pro-Western, and this is a great source of embarrassment to the Russian prime minister. The new Ukrainian government is seeking closer ties with European states and the United States. Not only are they seeking political support, economic support and humanitarian support, they may also seek NATO assistance in the event of a conflagration. In spite of US Pres.

Barack Obama’s stern warning to the Russians that he’s deeply concerned about the events in the Ukraine, the Russians are unlikely to take these threats seriously. US Secretary of State John Kerry recently said that there is no Cold War and that this is not Rocky 4. Buoyed by US reluctance to get involved militarily in any foreign conflict, the Russians appear to be digging their heels, bolstering their forces and prepared for whatever may come.

Much of the tension in the Ukraine is

centred in the Crimea region. This is a region that is predominantly Russian speaking, and also the scene of a mini coup by gunmen who seized control of regional legislatures during the last week of February 2014. The proRussian premier – Sergey Aksenov is now in charge. Nikita Khrushchev ceded Crimea to the Ukraine in 1954. The region is home to 2 mln people with some 60% being ethnic Russians. In terms of overall figures, Russians comprise 17% of Ukraine’s population of 7.65 mln people. The Kremlin overwhelmingly voted in favour of protecting these ethnic Russians in the Ukraine and that’s precisely why Russia has been so swift in moving military might into the region. The new Ukrainian government has made it clear that Russians and pro-Russians in the Ukraine are not under any threat whatsoever. Details are sketchy on the ground, but neither side appears willing to budge. The Crimean region has already secured its key facilities with the Russian forces. The Ukrainian crisis has had an effect on the markets with traders rushing to buy gold as uncertainty looms in the days and weeks to come.

www.bancdebinary.com

Currency markets watch Ukraine developments Currency traders were jittery watching developments in the Ukraine, with the yen taking a breather after its recent rally that was sparked by investors flocking to the safehaven currency.

The dollar edged up 0.2% to 101.60 yen, edging away from a one-month low of 101.20 yen set on Monday. The euro rose 0.2% to 139.56 yen according to Reuters data.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces have tightened their grip on the Russianspeaking Crimea region, a move described by U.S. President Barack Obama as a violation of international law and of Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Risk sentiment remained subdued due to the heightened geopolitical tensions, which has helped give the yen a lift in recent sessions.

“Unless Russia withdraws its forces, I think this is a topic that is likely to persist.

It’s probably a long road until there is a resolution, and sentiment will probably head gradually toward risk-off,” a Singapore-based trader for a Japanese bank told Reuters.

The dollar could fall further against the yen if risk sentiment worsens further, although the yen’s gains could be limited by speculation that the Bank of Japan might

to take further easing steps at some point to achieve its 2% inflation target, although expectations for the central bank to act soon have faded recently as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remains doggedly positive that the economy is improving.

The tensions over Russian military intervention on the Crimean peninsula have rattled oil markets, with U.S. crude rising to its highest settlement price in 5-1/2 months

FOREX COMMENTARY & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS eventually step up its monetary stimulus, an FX strategist for Bank of Singapore told Reuters.

Many market participants expect the BOJ

on Monday.

The euro held steady at $1.3730, having pulled back from a two-month high of

around $1.3825 set on Friday, when data showed inflation held steady in the euro zone and cooled expectations the European Central Bank might ease monetary policy at its March 6 policy meeting.

A batch of encouraging U.S. economic data on Monday, helped lend support to the dollar.

U.S. factory activity rebounded from an eight-month low last month and consumer spending increased more than expected in January, suggesting the economy was regaining some strength after abruptly slowing in recent months.

“The overall tone of the data is optimistic with the major sentiment surveys surprising to the upside. Hence this should alleviate some of the weather-related concerns and be USD-supportive,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients.

Disclaimer: The commentary appearing on this page is for indication purposes only and Eurivex does not take any responsibility for investment action taken. Nothing in this report should be considered to constitute investment advice. It is not intended, and should not be considered, as an offer, invitation, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any of the financial instruments described herein. Trading on leverage is very risky and may lead to losses.

March 5 - 11, 2014

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

US energy: Escaping the vortex weather will pass. While the freezing weather has dampened gas field activity and pushed up seasonal demand, there is little evidence of a change in the long term trajectories of supply and demand. The price of long-dated natural gas futures remain stable. And as we emphasized in The Great Pacific Gas Arbitrage, price and output data appear to show that marginal costs remain broadly stable in the US$3.50-4.50 per mmbtu range. At that price range, downstream materials firms and potential US exporters retain a very strong price advantage over Asian competitors grappling with LNG prices approaching US$20 per mmbtu.

One of the strongest clues pointing to the weather, rather than any structural weakness in supply, is the price action in a wide variety of fuels this winter. Futures for Gulf coast oil have moved up in lockstep with US natural gas since temperatures first started plunging in December. US coal prices have also moved up,

Marcuard’s Market update

by GaveKal Research It’s been a bumpy ride this winter for energy prices as the so-called polar vortex stormed down upon American consumers and businesses. Natural gas prices, dormant for years in the US$3-4 per mmbtu range, spiked up as high as US$8 in mid-February, before collapsing back down to their current US$5.

Are proponents of the US shale revolution and the downstream industrial firms betting on a cheap energy renaissance - about to get burned?

Probably not. The fundamentals strongly suggest that the frigid weather, and not any structural weakness on the supply side, is the culprit for recent price spikes. The vertigoinducing price gyrations of the past two weeks reflect uncertainty on how quickly the severe

as generators switch out of natural gas pushed higher by consumer heating demand. All of this is strongly indicative of a temporary weather induced price spike, and not a fundamental change in the natural gas supply story.

Other clues can be seen in the financial performance this winter of downstream firms heavily exposed to natural gas prices. Plastics in particular should be a big beneficiary of cheap natural gas liquids. Dow, the largest US chemical producer, has seen a strong re-rating of its shares this year, driven in part by surging plastics revenues. Given Dow’s dependence on cheap gas (the firm is leading the charge to limit US gas exports), one might expect shares to be negatively impacted by rising prices this winter. Instead, the company’s stock has been on an essentially uninterrupted rise for the past three months. This strongly suggests that equity investors broadly view recent price spikes as temporary.

Natural gas inventories have been severely pushed down by the ugly weather and are currently 35% below the five-year moving average for this time of year. This does pose a risk that inventories may not be fully rebuilt by next winter, even if production recovers strongly this summer as we expect. That means next winter could witness another price spike, particularly if recent weather patterns prove enduring.

But barring more convincing evidence of an upward shift in the marginal cost of US shale gas production, the long run low-cost US price trajectory looks largely intact. Prices should remain broadly in the US$4-5 per mmbtu range for the remainder of the decade, even assuming substantial US exports nearer to 2020. Consumers and downstream users including chemical and plastics firms will continue to benefit, especially if European and other large trading partners continue to bounce back.

How to think about deflation capital relative to profit growth. Capitalism tends to be profoundly deflationary and expansionary at the same time, while government spending tends to be inflationary and recessionary at the same time. When governments decide or are forced to cool spending, then capitalism should return to its deflationary roots.

There are times, however, when falling prices force the private sector to slow activity.

Wicksell’s insight on this subject was simple: whenever the growth rate of corporate profits falls below the cost of capital, it pays to deleverage. Prices will fall for as long as this state of affairs persists. It is only if and when the growth rate of corporate profits moves above the cost of capital that prices stop falling.

Fisher worked on Wicksell’s analysis under the special circumstances of debt deflation when the growth rate of corporate profits falls below the cost of capital at a time when companies are massively indebted, due to a “wrong” cost of capital applied in the previous period. The combination of falling prices (created by the collapse of the velocity of money) and of massive indebtedness leads to a vicious debt-deflation cycle.

With this in mind, if one wants to analyse today’s situation, here are the important

Marcuard’s Market update

by GaveKal Research The word deflation appears in newspapers almost every day, while the IMF and the OECD, the rich world club, are falling all over themselves to see who can most frequently use the phrase “deflation risk.” As we have been warning about deflation for quite a while, we’ve have naturally been interested to read what these fellows have to say on the subject. Unfortunately, most of it is totally useless.

Many have no clue about deflation because they are operating on models which are Keynesian at worst and monetarist at best, but in no case applicable to today’s world. As I’ve argued in a number of pieces, economists Knut Wicksell and Irving Fisher offer the best frameworks for analysing deflation.

Confucius said, “if words have more than one meaning, then kingdoms become ungovernable.” Deflation means falling prices and not falling economic activity. As such deflation is a very good thing for the consumer, but can be a bad thing for the producer if he is selling goods inelastic to price changes, or is paying too much for

www.marcuardheritage.com

questions to ask: 1) Are a large number of marketdetermined prices falling? Let’s make this distinction since, of course, many prices are not market-determined. For example, if French CPI were to rise because of tax hikes on tobacco, alcohol and gasoline, this hit on the consumer wallet would in fact reinforce underlying deflationary pressures, even as headline CPI is rising. Many price indices are computed in ways that mask the deflationary reality.

2) Is the growth rate of corporate profits below the cost of capital (which is not the same as the short-term cost of money), or heading in that direction? If so, then prices will keep falling.

3) Do we have cases of massive overindebtedness, especially in sectors with a very low elasticity to prices? In sectors with high debt levels, expect a collapse in asset prices. If many sectors are overleveraged, then financials in particular become garbage collectors since they are left with all the loans to companies or governments which cannot be repaid.

Also, deflation is “too many goods chasing not enough money” and a key source of ‘international money’ is the US current account deficit. Because of the Fed’s policy of

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

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1.59 1.87 0.95 0.27 0.42

2.19 2.28 1.33 0.45 0.80

2.74 2.70 1.78 0.75 1.24

Exchange Rates

CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

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1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF 1.3754 0.7271

100 JPY

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1.2127

0.8232

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0.8832

1.2148

1.4731

101.77

139.97

169.74

0.8678 115.23

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Weekly movement of USD

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Today

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1.6679 1.3754 101.77 0.8832

Last Week %Change 1.6673 1.3751 102.31 0.8869

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BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH

9770 1.6679 1.4218 19.882 5.4253 11.3755 1.3754 1.7379 226.9 0.51096 2.5101 0.3121 13.6 6.0399 3.0559 3.2887 36.3509 6.4585 0.8832 9.6

AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD

0.8936 1.1087 7.7599 61.9025 101.77 1073.25 1.1937 1.2692

BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED

0.3770 6.9591 24768.00 3.4875 0.7080 0.2816 1503.00 0.3850 3.6394 3.7503 10.8321 3.6729

AZN KZT TRY

0.7833 182.12 2.2170

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The Financial Markets Base Rates

excessively cheap money has suppressed the value of the dollar, we expect the US current account deficit to continue narrowing, which means fewer dollars circulating internationally. Deflation will thus hit international trade particularly hard.

And investment conclusions, based on the answers to the three questions above, have been very simple.

Own companies with positive cash flows, in dollars preferably.

Hedge your equities with an asset which has a -1 correlation with falling prices, i.e., a US long bond since no one knows whether a deflationary boom or a deflationary bust is coming.

-0.04 -0.02 -0.53 -0.42

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham ASIA

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* USD per National Currency

March 5 - 11, 2014

20 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

The new growth conundrum For most governments, the rate of economic growth that can reasonably be expected in the coming years is a key question. And, at least for the advanced economies, it has become a particularly puzzling one.

If the past is a good predictor of the future, the outlook is bleak. Since 2008, economic growth has consistently disappointed expectations. Of the countries most affected by the financial crisis, only a few – the United States, Germany, and Sweden – have rediscovered the path to sustained growth. Yet, even for them, GDP in 2013 was far below the level projected prior to the crisis.

The consensus view among economists and policymakers is that the financial crisis and the euro crisis have damaged both demand and supply, but that a gradual healing process has begun.

On the demand side, according to this view, the hangover from pre-crisis private indebtedness and crisis-generated public indebtedness still weighs on domestic demand. This is likely to persist for several more years, though the burden will diminish steadily. Gradually, consumers will start spending and investing again (as is becoming the case in the US), and fiscal policy will become neutral again (as is already the case in Germany).

On the supply side, the crisis has lowered potential output growth, because, in Europe at least, firms have invested less, impeding the adoption of new technologies. Moreover, in some cases – for example, the United Kingdom – wage decreases and flexible layoff rules have encouraged firms to substitute labor for capital, reducing output per employee. Clogged capital markets and resistance to social hardship have also delayed the replacement of incumbent firms by more efficient new entrants. The aggregate result has been lower-than-anticipated productivity: in the UK, more person-hours were needed to produce a unit of output in 2013 than in 2007. Here, too, the supply-side effect of the crisis is likely to persist until firms invest in new equipment, innovation accelerates, and the

churning process in labor markets resumes.

But the view that advanced economies are gradually healing is challenged from both sides. Starting with demand, Larry Summers, the Harvard economist and senior US official under Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, recently proposed that advanced economies have found themselves in the grip of secular stagnation.

Summers’s view is that pre-crisis indebtedness was not an exogenous anomaly; it was the consequence of insufficient global demand.

The global distribution of income had shifted away from the advanced countries’ middle class toward the rich and the emerging economies, resulting in excess worldwide savings. The only way to avoid stagnation was to push the middle class deeper into debt, helped by low interest rates and lenient lending rules.

In other words, the savings glut (as former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called it) predated the crisis and could continue to affect global demand, unless the emerging countries’ middle class provides the global economy with a new consumer of last resort. This is likely to happen eventually; but, despite efforts by the US and the International Monetary Fund in the context of the G-20, this rebalancing process has not yet been completed.

The challenge on the supply side stems from a new dispute among economists and technology experts about the pace of technological progress. For Robert Gordon of Northwestern University, information and communication technologies have already delivered most of the productivity boost that can be expected from them; there is no major innovation wave in sight that could offset the slowdown in potential growth. Laggards can look forward to reaping catch-up dividends; but countries at the technology frontier should accept that very slow annual per capita growth – little more than 1% – is the new normal.

By contrast, the MIT scholars Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew

By Jean Pisani-Ferry

Wallets wide shut Some economists, like Larry Summers, call it “secular stagnation.” Others refer to it as “Japanisation.” But all agree that after too many years of inadequate growth in advanced economies, substantial longer-term risks have emerged, not only for the wellbeing of these countries’ citizens but also for the health and stability of the global economy.

Those looking for ways to reduce the risks of inadequate growth agree that, of all possible solutions, increased business investment can make the biggest difference. And many medium-size and large companies, having recovered impressively from the huge shock of the 2008 global financial crisis and subsequent recession, now have the wherewithal to invest in new plants, equipment, and hiring.

Indeed, with profitability at or near record levels, cash holdings by the corporate sector in the United States have piled up quarter after quarter, reaching all-time highs – and earning very little at today’s near-zero interest rates. Moreover, because companies have significantly improved their operating efficiency and lengthened the maturities on their debt, they need a lot less precautionary savings than they did in the past.

However one looks at it, the corporate sector in advanced economies in general, and in the US in particular, is as strong as it has been in many years. Non-financial firms have achieved a mix of resilience and agility that contrasts sharply with prevailing conditions for some households and governments around the world that have yet to confront adequately a legacy of over-leverage.

But, rather than deploy their abundant cash in new investments to expand capacity and tap new markets – which they have been very hesitant to do since the global financial crisis erupted – many companies have so far preferred (or have been pressured by activist investors) to give it back to shareholders.

Last year alone, US companies authorised more than $600 bln of share buybacks – an impressive amount by any measure, and a record high. Moreover, many companies boosted their quarterly dividend payouts to shareholders. Such activity continued in the first two months of 2014.

But, while shareholders have clearly benefited from

companies’ unwillingness to invest their ample cash, the bulk of the injected money has been circulating only in the financial sector. Little of it has directly benefited economies that are struggling to boost their growth rates, expand employment, avoid creating a lost generation of workers, and address excessive income inequality.

If advanced economies are to prosper, it is necessary (though not sufficient) that the corporate sector’s willingness to invest match its considerable wallet. Six factors appear to pose particularly important constraints.

First, companies are concerned about future demand for their products. The recent economic recovery, as muted as it has been (both in absolute terms and relative to most expectations), has been driven by the experimental policies that central banks have pursued to sustain consumption. Now, with the US Federal Reserve beginning to withdraw monetary stimulus, and with growth in emerging countries slowing, most companies are simply unable to point to massive expansion opportunities.

Second, with China such an influential driver of global demand (both directly and indirectly through important network effects), the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy has a disproportionate impact on projections of global corporate revenues. And, as China’s excessive domestic credit growth and shadow-banking system attract increased attention, many companies are becoming anxious.

Third, while companies recognise that innovation is a key comparative advantage in today’s global economy, they are also humbled by its increasingly winner-take-all nature.

Successful innovation today is a lot less about financing and much more about finding the “killer app.” As a result, many companies, less convinced that “normal” innovation yields big payoffs, end up investing less overall than they did before.

Fourth, the longer-term cost-benefit analysis for would-be investors is clouded by legitimate questions about certain operating environments. In the US, many companies expect major budgetary reform; but they are not yet able to assess the impact on their future operating profits. In Europe, politicians are aware of the need for major structural reforms, including

McAfee argue that the Second Machine Age is yet to come. They claim that ever-increasing computing power, worldwide connectivity, and the almost unlimited potential for generating new innovations through recombining existing processes will trigger major transformations in both production and consumption, in the same way that the steam engine transformed the world in the nineteenth century. Growth should accelerate as a consequence, at least if properly measured.

Combining the challenges cited by Gordon and Summers to the view that advanced economies are gradually healing leads to some depressing conclusions. If Gordon is right about slow productivity growth, the debt overhang inherited from the crisis and public-finance woes will persist for much longer than anticipated. If, in addition, Summers is right that demand is bound to remain deficient, the combination of financial troubles and persistent mass unemployment is likely to push governments toward radical solutions – debt default, inflation, or financial protectionism.

If, on the contrary, Brynjolfsson and McAfee are right, growth will be much more robust, and debt issues will be forgotten sooner than expected. The challenge, instead, will be to cope with the labor-reducing and income-inequality effects of emerging technologies.

That will be especially true if these transformations take place against the background drawn by Summers of persistent mass unemployment. The risk is that social problems become intractable, as technological advances come to be regarded as benefiting the rich while creating additional hardship for the masses. In such a scenario, governments will have to look for innovative responses.

Scenarios like these may seem far-fetched. But, while certainly discomfiting, they are hardly irrelevant.

Jean Pisani-Ferry teaches at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, and currently serves as Commissioner-General for Policy Planning in Paris. He is a former director of Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

By Mohamed A. El-Erian CEO AND CO-CIO OF PIMCO, AND THE AUTHOR OF WHEN MARKETS COLLIDE.PROJECT SYNDICATE, 2013.

WWW.PROJECT-SYNDICATE.ORG

those required to solidify regional integration; but companies lack adequate clarity about the components of such reforms.

Fifth, the scope for risk mitigation is not as large as financial advances would initially suggest. Yes, companies have more hedging tools at their disposal. But the ability to manage downside risk comprehensively is still limited by incomplete longer-term markets and public-private partnerships that cannot be sufficiently leveraged.

Finally, most corporate leaders recognise that they owe a large debt of gratitude to central bankers for the relative tranquility of recent years.

Through bold policy experiments, central bankers succeeded in avoiding a global multi-year depression and buying time for companies to heal.

But, working essentially alone, central banks have not been able to revamp properly the advanced economies’ growth engines; nor do they have the tools to do so. Though many corporate leaders may still be unable to grasp the precise threats, they seem uneasy about the longer-term collateral damage implied by running modern market economies at artificially repressed interest rates and with bloated centralbank balance sheets.

The good news is that each of these constraints on investment can – and should – be addressed; and recent US business investment data suggest some progress. The bad news is that it will take a lot more time, effort, and global coordination. In the meantime, the corporate sector will only gradually take on more of the heavy lifting. That will be enough to keep the advanced economies growing this year; unfortunately, it will not be enough to attain the faster growth that their citizens’ wellbeing – and that of the global economy – urgently requires.

Mohamed A. El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and the author of When Markets Collide. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

March 5 - 11, 2014

financialmirror.com | WORLD MARKETS | 21

Saving retirement Public pension programs around the world are in financial trouble. Because of continuing increases in life expectancy, the number of eligible retirees is rising more rapidly than the tax revenue available to finance benefits.

In the United States, the Congressional Budget Office projects the relative cost of the Social Security program’s old-age pension benefits to rise by more than a quarter over the next 25 years, from 4.9% of GDP today to 6.2% in 2038.

Because the taxes that are earmarked to support Social Security do not automatically rise faster than GDP, either the growth rate of benefits must be reduced or tax rates must be increased.

One reason for the rapid rise in benefits stems from how they are adjusted for inflation.

Under current US law, retirees’ benefits are automatically adjusted to account for increases in the traditional consumer price index (CPI). But experts have long understood that the CPI overstates the true increase in the cost of living, and that the resulting overindexing of benefits should be fixed.

Part of the problem is that the CPI does not reflect how consumers change the composition of their purchases over time as relative prices change. President Barack Obama’s administration initially followed expert advice and suggested that the traditional CPI be replaced by a more accurate measure known as the chain-weighted CPI. Although this would reduce the annual rate of increase in benefits by only about 0.25%, outlays for Social Security and other inflationindexed programs over the next ten years would be more than $200 billion lower.

Applying the chain-weighted CPI to taxbracket adjustments would raise more than $100 billion over the same period.

But there is another, more fundamental reason why the traditional CPI overstates the true rise in the cost of living: It does not accurately reflect the introduction of new goods and services or improvements in the quality of existing goods and services. So it is unfortunate that Obama recently withdrew his proposal to change the traditional index, preferring the political gesture of “protecting Social Security benefits” to the more responsible policy of correcting the way that benefits and taxes reflect rising prices.

But the more important reform for stabilizing the financing of Social Security pension benefits is to adjust the benefits for the rise in life expectancy. When the US created its Social Security program in the 1930’s, the legislation specified that benefits would be paid to retirees at age 65. Life expectancy at age 65 rose after that by about

one year per decade. Today, life expectancy at age 65 is about six years more than it was in 1940. The increase in the number of retirement years put Social Security in financial trouble.

The US Congress responded in 1983 by gradually raising the age for full benefits from 65 to 67. Individuals who want to retire as early as 62 can still do so with an actuarially fair reduction in their benefits.

Alternatively, they can work longer and receive higher benefits.

Of course, the decision to increase the age for full benefits was never going to be politically popular. Congress was therefore careful to delay the start of the gradual adjustment, applying it only to those below the age of 45 at the time of the legislation, with the higher retirement age to be fully phased in only in 2027.

As a result, the public was generally unaware during the decade after the 1983 legislation that the age for full benefits would eventually rise. When pollsters asked voters whether they would favor an increase in the Social Security retirement age to improve the program’s financial stability, the response was overwhelmingly negative.

But here is the politically important fact: At no time did any member of Congress propose that the legislation be changed to delay or eliminate the rise in the eligibility age for full benefits. Congress acted responsibly to slow the growth of benefits, even though reversing the increase in the eligibility age would have been politically popular.

Since the 1983 legislation was enacted, life expectancy at age 67 has increased by another three years, bringing it to 85. There is every reason to expect life expectancy to continue to rise in the future at the rate of one year per decade.

The obvious solution to the current and future Social Security financing problem is to reprise the 1983 legislation by gradually raising the age for full benefits from 67 to 70, with appropriate actuarial adjustments for earlier and later retirements. Because life expectancy at age 67 is roughly 18 years, this would be equivalent to reducing average lifetime benefits by one-sixth (the present value of the benefit reduction is actually higher, given that the reduction comes at the start of the retirement period).

It would be even better to avoid future political posturing by enacting legislation now that automatically raises the eligibility age for full benefits in such a way that average life expectancy at that threshold is kept constant, at 15 years.

By Martin Feldstein

Some experts object on principle to an increase in the eligibility age for full benefits, because some low-income groups do not experience the same one-year-per-decade rise in life expectancy. A simple solution to that problem would be to relate the age at which full benefits are paid to each individual’s average lifetime earnings.

A more fundamental reform would be to shift from a pure pay-as-you-go system to a mixed system that combines the current benefits with investment-based personal retirement accounts. Such investment-based annuities would be a natural supplement to the lower pay-as-you-go benefits that would

result from raising the eligibility age for full benefits. Obviously, retirees deserve advance notice before benefits are reduced. That is why it is important for the US – and for many countries around the world – to act now to make the changes needed to stabilize future pension finances.

Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

March 5 - 11, 2014

22 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

Venezuela’s bad angels Fish do not know they are in water. They take it for granted.

They would need to get out of water to understand how different things could be. Similarly, one way for people to see the uniqueness of what they consider normal is to contrast it with the past – or with an outlier, an example that bucks the current trend.

A case in point is the dramatically low levels of violence that characterise the present, a fact uncovered by Steven Pinker in his 2011 book The Better Angels of Our Nature. The facts are imposing and incontrovertible. As Pinker convincingly shows, violence of all kinds has declined over the millennia, in recent centuries, and during the past decades. Humans, according to Pinker, have both good and bad angels (or passions), and the good ones have become more dominant. Why? For starters, Leviathan – that is, the state’s monopoly on the legitimate use of force – has reduced conflict and increased personal security. Second, the state’s administration of justice adopted and encouraged non-violent ways of resolving grievances, thus allowing cooperation and the expansion of commerce. This trend accelerated with the spread of Enlightenment humanist ideals based on fundamental human equality and the application of rationality to human affairs.

In this respect, Venezuela is the proverbial fish out of water.

During the 15 years of the “Bolivarian Revolution” initiated by the late Hugo Chávez, the country’s homicide rate has quadrupled, from a high base of 19 per 100,000 in 1998 to 79 in 2013, roughly 17 times the average in the United States, 26 times that in Chile, and more than 30 times the combined average of OECD countries.

In a sample of 145 countries assembled by the World Bank, Venezuela’s homicide numbers since 1995 have been exceeded only by Honduras and El Salvador, countries with less than one-third of Venezuela’s per capita income. And Venezuela’s murder boom came despite an 8-fold increase in oil prices in the intervening period, which massively increased the country’s exports and fiscal revenues.

Adopting Pinker’s perspective, one key element underpinning the rise in violence in Venezuela is the voluntary

weakening of Leviathan. While there are no armed opposition groups, the government has sponsored the creation of armed paramilitary groups, known locally as colectivos, charged with defending the “revolution.” Thus, they bear a striking similarity to the Nazi brown shirts, the Fascist black shirts, and the various “people’s militias” that were established under communist regimes.

Just recently, the colectivos made international headlines when, on February 18, acting on the orders of a state governor, they attacked a peaceful demonstration, killing Genesis Carmona, a beauty queen. They openly control parts of Caracas and other cities. On February 24, President Nicolás Maduro invited them to ride their motorcycles to the presidential palace.

One reason why a ruling party or political movement might create armed support groups is to deter the regular armed forces from attempting a coup.

In Venezuela, for example, the situation would become very messy, because the colectivos would wreak havoc. Such groups may also reflect an effort to impose social order through fear. But there is something else underlying their establishment: an anti-Enlightenment ideology of violence.

While chavismo arrived in power via the ballot box, its leaders wished it had done so with bullets, like their hero Che Guevara. That is why the colectivos erected a bust of Tirofijo, the deceased leader of Colombia’s FARC guerrilla group, and why they photograph their children with assault rifles, covered faces, and military garb.

The ideology of violence is underpinned by the Marxian idea that the road to progress is class struggle. The way forward involves inculcating hatred among “the people” of their class enemies. Under this paradigm, a government that talks to the enemy is either weak or a traitor to its class.

In this framework, there is no collective sense of a communal “we” that has agreed to live together under rules that apply equally to all. Institutions designed for liberal democracies – such as an independent judiciary, a comptroller-general, and a free press – become assets to be

By Ricardo Hausmann seized and used in the class struggle. As a consequence, the law is used only against political opponents, the budgetary division between party and state disappears, and those delivering bad news are treated harshly, as many local media have long known, and as global news outlets like CNN have recently discovered.

For many years, Venezuela’s dismal dynamics generated little open revolt. But, since February 12, things have changed radically. Previously, skyrocketing insecurity, massive shortages, high inflation, and police brutality were simply facts of life with which Venezuelans had to cope on their own. Now, however, they have fueled a collective sense of outrage that demands civil disobedience as the only possible moral stance.

The fish know they are out of water.

Venezuela will not be able to join the global trend of declining violence unless its government reestablishes Leviathan, which implies disarming the colectivos. The country will be unable to avoid tyranny unless it is willing to respect the minimal democratic guarantees provided by the constitution, such as a supreme court, an attorney general, a comptroller, and an electoral council appointed with twothirds of the National Assembly’s support. All of these institutions require political forces to negotiate with, rather than persecute, their opponents.

Most important, Venezuela will also have to abandon the ideology of class warfare. Pinker aptly quotes Voltaire: “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.”

Ricardo Hausmann, a former minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, is a professor of economics at Harvard University, where he is also Director of the Center for International Development. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org

Who’s afraid of tapering?

The US Federal Reserve’s gradual exit from so-called quantitative easing (QE) – open-ended purchases of long-term assets – has financial markets and policymakers worried, with warnings of capital flight from developing economies and collapsing asset prices dominating policy discussions worldwide. But, given that most major economies operate under a flexible exchange-rate regime, these concerns are largely unwarranted.

The logic behind the fear of the Fed’s “tapering” of QE is straightforward. Unconventional monetary policy in the United States – and in other advanced countries, particularly the United Kingdom and Japan – drove down domestic interest rates, while flooding international financial markets with liquidity. In search of higher yields, investors took that liquidity – largely in the form of short-term speculative capital (“hot” money) – to emerging markets, putting upward pressure on their exchange rates and fueling the risk of asset bubbles. Thus, the Fed’s withdrawal from QE would be accompanied by a capital-flow reversal, increasing borrowing costs and hampering GDP growth.

By Koichi Hamada

Of course, not all emerging markets, according to this logic, are equally exposed. Among the most vulnerable countries are Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, India, and Indonesia – the socalled “Fragile Five” – all of which are characterized by twin fiscal and current-account deficits, high inflation, in addition to faltering GDP growth.

This logic would be correct if the world were operating under a fixed exchange-rate regime, with governments tying official exchange rates to another country’s currency or the price of gold. Under these conditions, monetary contraction (or slowing expansion) would have a recessionary (or a less stimulative) impact on other economies.

With flexible exchange rates, however, monetary-policy contraction in a major economy would stimulate other

economies in the short run, while monetary expansion would damage their performance. (To be sure, in the medium or long run, monetary expansion can facilitate increased domestic production and trade, thereby generating positive spillover effects.)

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the rapid expansion of the money supply in the US and the UK triggered a sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen, as well as of some emerging-market currencies. In short, QE is what merits concern – not its termination.

Of course, the Fed’s policy reversal could hurt countries that maintain fixed – or, like China, “managed floating” – exchange rates. Likewise, weaker eurozone economies like Greece and Spain, which would prefer stronger monetary stimulus than their more competitive counterparts in Europe are willing to accept, may suffer. But, given that these economies have chosen to adhere to a fixed exchange rate, the Fed cannot really be blamed for the fallout.

In fact, the Fed – and other advanced-country central banks – should not be blamed for the negative effects of monetary expansion, either. Japan’s bold monetary easing, for example, was a critical element of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s strategy for lifting the Japanese economy out of more than a decade of recession – and it has led to a remarkable recovery.

The problem is that the policy has also caused the yen to depreciate, leading nearby countries to accuse Japan of adopting “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies. Similarly, emergingmarket officials warned that monetary expansion in the US and the UK would trigger a wave of competitive currency devaluations, with Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega going so far as to accuse the Fed and the Bank of England of waging a full-blown “currency war.”

But, while it is true that such expansionary policies can have a recessionary impact on other economies, modern international-finance theory shows that the concept of a “currency war” is a myth. The reality is that, under a flexible exchange-rate regime, competitive devaluations do not produce undesirable imbalances. On the contrary, they can bolster recovery in participating economies.

In fact, currency devaluations were critical to ending the Great Depression. As Barry Eichengreen and Jeffrey Sachs demonstrated in 1984, while abandoning the gold standard had an immediate negative impact, it quickly spurred recovery,

with the first countries to devalue their currencies escaping depression earlier than others.

The fact is that, with a flexible exchange rate, a country can offset the recessionary impact of a neighboring country’s monetary easing using its own independent monetary policy, guided by carefully chosen inflation targets. If all countries adopt this approach, the entire global economy benefits.

By working to revive the domestic economy, the Fed, like other advanced-country central banks, is simply fulfilling its mandate. Instead of complaining about its actions, emergingcountry policymakers should be devising strategies for offsetting the spillover effects on their own economies. After all, they have the tools to do so.

Koichi Hamada, Special Economic Adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Tokyo. © Project Syndicate, 2014., www.project-syndicate.org

March 5 - 11, 2014

financialmirror.com | GREECE | 23

Greek industries face the crunch, as energy costs hit the roof

By Costis Stambolis Greece’s ailing industrial sector looks likely to contract further in line with the country’s continuing recession, which registered nearly -4.0% in 2013 with bleak prospects for a rebound later this year in spite of a return to growth scenario which government-controlled media try to propagate. Because of over-taxation, increased social contributions, a bloated bureaucracy and a host of secondary direct and indirect costs, industrial products remain highly uncompetitive in the international markets and unable to contribute to a nationwide export drive effort.

Although companies now face lower wage costs and a more flexible employment regime, introduced under much pressure from the Troika two years ago, production costs remain stubbornly high because of the government’s insistence in levying a wide variety of excise duties on the means of production. Consequently, industrial exports declined last year by 5.8% in what has otherwise been a continuous growth pattern since 2009.

As domestic demand slacked with the country driven into deep recession, manufacturers and service providers sought a way out in export markets. So far, their strategy worked as overall exports rose by 29.12 % over the last five years, according to latest figures by the Greek Exporters Association. However, last year most companies experienced severe pressure as they were unable to slash further their prices due to a combination of government tax policing measures, a simultaneous rise in energy costs and lack of financing from the moribund banks. This resulted in thousands of companies having to close down, thus contributing further to the rise in unemployment which jumped to 28% with more than 1.8 mln people out of work.

However, the biggest challenge are rising energy costs as these are reflected in exceptionally high electricity and gas prices. It seems that the present high costs are equally affecting small and large industrial units although the worst affected is the metals sector and heavy industries such as steel, aluminium and nickel.

According to the Hellenic Union of Industrial Consumers (UNICERN) the electricity and gas tariffs applied to Greek industry are the highest in Europe. UNICERN, whose members represent about half (49%) of consumption of Greece’ high voltage output and 6.0% of total domestic consumption (i.e 3.8 TWh in HV and MV) says that the industrial tariffs in use for high voltage are 77,00 Euros/MWh and 104,40 Euros/MWh for the medium voltage use, compared to 30,00-35,00 Euros/MWh in Italy, 35,00-40,00 Euros/MWh in Germany, 40,00-46,00 Euros/MWh in France and 46,00 Euros/MWh in neigbouring Bulgaria.

RATES UP 50% SINCE 2005 Furthermore, electricity tariffs for industry have risen on average by 50% since 2005 reflecting higher production costs by the Public Power Corporation (PPC/DEH), Greece’s state controlled electricity utility, but also a number of other costs imposed on the PPC tariff such as the Public Service Benefits charge, which compensates for expensive PPC production on the islands so that customers there enjoy the same uniform tariffs as those on the mainland. Similar costs include a renewable energy contribution (through which RES producers are paid for the energy they produce and offload

into the grid), a special consumption tax lately introduced for industrial consumers and a variety of other minor charges so that the actual electricity tariff ends up to roughly 50% of the final bill.

Natural gas, to which most industrial plants have converted following its introduction in 1996, is also substantially overpriced compared to what is applied to other European industries. UNICERN sources point out that industrial gas tariffs are on average 62% above comparable tariffs in other EU countries because of the higher prices that DEPA, the state owned Public Gas Corporation, has to pay for imports, mainly from Russia’s Gazprom, but also because of a 15% surcharge, known as special consumption tax, introduced two years ago and which industrialists regard as the final deathblow to any serious industrial activity in Greece.

Most industrialists are furious when discussing how artificially high energy costs, literally imposed by ignorant government officials who haven’t got a clue on how industry works, are undermining the performance and competitiveness of the industrial sector resulting in plant closures and rising unemployment.

“At a time when we were forced to lower salary costs by 30% and more over the last five years and trim our operation to a bare minimum, we have witnessed a 50% rise of energy costs because of government complicity. Clearly this is a formula for failure in a grand scale and we are now seeing it happen.” notes a veteran industrialist in the textile sector.

STEEL WORST HIT One of the worst hit sectors is that of the steel industry which has seen its output reduced dramatically since the economic crisis started in 2009. From 2.6 mln tons a year production, which covered both domestic consumption and exports for a variety of steel products, this was reduced to 1.0 mln tons in 2013 with a mere 300,000 tons corresponding to domestic consumption. Greece’s largest steel company, ‘Halivourgiki’ operated at 10% capacity throughout 2013 unable to secure export orders due to its high operating costs, of which energy accounts for 50%.

Company executives observe that natural gas tariffs as applied to the steel industry increased by 126% since 2005 as the price then was 23 euros per Mwh and now stands at 52 euros per Mwh. Two weeks ago, the company was unable to sustain mounting losses and decided to suspend its operations, laying off 200 of its 263 employees. Another important steel producer, ‘Halivourgia Ellados’ had followed a similar path earlier in the year shutting down entirely its Aspropyrgos plant and making redundant an equal number of workers.

Most of the remaining steel and metal industries in Greece, which now concentrate on exports, face similar problems due to the abnormally high energy costs they have to pay, with a number of them contemplating closure.

Sidenor SA is one of the remaining major steel industries, part of the Viochalko group, which is considered a market leader in SE Europe.

CEO Nicholas Mariou, in a recent interview with Kathimerini newspaper said that the most important factor for the poor state of the industry today is the shrinking of domestic consumption by 85% over the last five years. “Now the challenge for us, i.e the steel industry in Greece, is exports,” noted Mariou.

“But here we are facing stiff competition form Italy, France and Spain whose production is less costly due to lower energy costs. If we re to survive and keep our plants in

operation we shall need much reduced electricity and gas prices,” added Mariou.

PACKAGE OF MEASURES It seems that the government at long last listened to UNICERN’s and Mariou’s pleas and those by other industrialists who had warned of more plant closures because of high energy costs. In a special session on February 20, the Environment and Energy Ministry announced a series of measures corresponding to 150 mln Euros in potential savings and intended to reduce the energy burden to Greek industry.

According to the ministerial decision, a group of four measures are to be taken including the ‘interruptability’ agreement between the industry and the electricity supplier, which leads to power saving by the grid operator while the industrial client gets compensated by lower tariffs, and a reduction of the special levy on renewables as applied to medium voltage industrial users.

In a separate development, DEPA last month reached an agreement with Gazprom for a 15% discount on gas quantities sold to the Greek utility backdated to July 1, 2013 and with an extension of its contract until 2023. This means that gas tariffs to both domestic and industrial consumers will be reduced by an average 10% since Greece imports gas from two other sources.

The industry’s reaction remains guarded as officials point out that the announced measures are not new.

“They are what we had proposed to the ministry few months ago, but at first glance they are in the right direction,” said a representative of one of the main energy intensive companies. However, a lot of skepticism remains on the part of the industry as it is not clear as to how and when the measures shall be applied.

“If these measures are applied in April or May the game is lost and these or additional measures will not be enough to revive any major industrial activity,” a senior industrialist said during a recent radio interview. What the government has carefully avoided to mention so far is any measures to decrease the special excise duties on gas and electricity which would have a direct bearing on tariff reduction without affecting electricity production costs or gas import costs.

“As long as the government avoids reducing unnecessary taxes, it is unlikely that we shall see any real reductions in energy costs in the foreseeable future and therefore we should be ready to see more plant closures,” a senior industrialist told the Financial Mirror. The next three or four weeks are considered crucial by industry which remains cautious as to the government’s intentions and ability to effect any worthwhile changes.

Costis Stambolis is a Financial Mirror contributor based in Athens

Greece leads PIIGS stock market league table Backers of the UK stock market are celebrating a steady start for the FTSE 100 in 2014 and a challenge of its 1999 all-time high of 6930. But its marginal gain of 1.3% since the start of year is dwarfed by gains from some of the eurozone’s most troubled economies, according to the Telegraph.

Data from Russell Investments, an asset management firm, show Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece have been the best performers in Europe so far in 2014.

The firm runs a number of country specific index funds, which track the performance of a stock market. Out of its 16 eurozone indices, Greece has returned the most so far this year,

up 9.4%. In second and third place are Portugal and Italy, up 8.5% and 8.3%, respectively. Spain has lagged behind, but has matched the average country return of 2.3%.

Shares in these troubled economies have endured a torrid time in recent years, but last year Ireland and Greece staged a comeback and were two of the best performing stock markets, both returning 35%. Fund managers are even suggesting these countries, with valuations still low, are a good long-term bet.

The case is argued by a number of respected fund managers who have been ploughing money into shares listed on stock exchanges in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. These four were

labelled the “Pigs” - or Piigs with Ireland included - by economists during the depths of the financial crisis.

Wouter Sturkenboom, an investment expert at Russell Investments, said: “The strong returns so far this year from Greece, Portugal and Italy indicate investors are more confident about putting money into shares that are listed in these regions.”

Barry Norris, fund manager of the Argonaut European Alpha fund, owns Greek banks, including the National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank. He argues Greece could be the best investment punt for sophisticated investors in 2014.

March 5 - 11, 2014

24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com

It’s all about the weather, again!

WALL ST WEEK AHEAD After months of subpar economic data that has been blamed at least partially on the brutal winter weather, investors may still struggle to discern the real picture of the economy this week.

The closely watched monthly jobs report due on Friday is expected to show that employers stepped up hiring a bit in February, but there is a greater-than-unusual amount of uncertainty around forecasts given that the weather remained unseasonable. In addition, questions over whether Russia could be drawn into the conflict in Ukraine will likely weigh on investor sentiment. March futures on the CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, shot up nearly 1% even as the S&P 500 closed at another record high on Friday.

“It will be interesting to see the action on S&P futures based on the kind of developments we see in Ukraine. There are definitely concerns out there and with the S&P 500 at a record again, it’s a great time to buy some protection like the VIX,” said JJ Kinahan, chief strategist at T.D. Ameritrade in Chicago.

The spot VIX closed down 0.3% at 14 on Friday.

For the past couple of months, interpreting U.S. economic

figures has taken on a familiar pattern: questions are raised about possible weakness in demand, then investors shrug and dismiss it all as a product of bad weather.

Reports from government agencies, private surveys and U.S. corporations have blamed colder-than-normal weather and heavy snowfall across large swaths of the country for everything from slack retail sales and weak employment data to poor industrial output.

If the payrolls’ growth figure for February comes in around the consensus of 148,000 on Friday, it is likely to fuel optimism that the economy is pulling out of its weatherinduced funk. A weak reading, in contrast, will lead to more hand-wringing and fuel debate over whether the economy is weakening.

On Wednesday, payrolls processor ADP releases its report on private-sector hiring. A separate report from ISM the same day is expected to show the expansion of the services sector slowed in February. The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its

Beige Book, an anecdotal review of business activity across the country, on Wednesday.

“This first quarter macro numbers may be dampened a bit again by the bad weather and some of the impact on the demand,” said Natalie Trunow, chief investment officer of equities at Calvert Investment Management, which has about $13 bln in assets. “But I think the overall trend will be positive.”

The S&P 500 ended at another record close on Friday but was well off the day’s highs after Ukraine’s acting president accused Russia of open aggression and said Moscow was following a similar scenario to the one before it went to war with Georgia in 2008.

But overall, Wall Street has been relatively calm to problems in Ukraine and Russia thanks to a better-thanexpected earnings season. All three major indexes closed out the month of February with strong gains. The Dow Jones industrial average scored its best monthly percentage gain since January 2013, while the S&P 500 had its best month since October.

In almost the last week for major earnings, a number of big retailers are due to report next week, including Costco Wholesale Corp and office supplies retailer Staples on Thursday.

The Dual Dragon China’s economy is again facing the specter of a hard landing. Property bubbles, mounting local-government debt, and wayward shadow-banking activities are generating considerable financial risk, complicating the government’s efforts to address rising labor costs, excessive credit, overwhelming pollution, rampant corruption, an undeveloped tax system, and rising international competition. And additional risks seem to lurk at almost every turn.

Any strategy for mitigating the threat of a sharp slowdown must account for the dual nature of China’s economy. On the one hand, Chinese cities are becoming increasingly modern and globally engaged. Indeed, China’s 17 most dynamic cities – which

exchange reserves and a large (though declining) current-account surplus, China’s economy does not depend on foreign saving and investment. Local-government liabilities and non-performing loans are thus a domestic problem, whose only real spillover effects would stem from debt-redistribution efforts. Monetary and fiscal tightening aimed at curtailing credit expansion runs the risk of undermining GDP growth and reducing Chinese demand for commodities. This would hurt commodity-exporting emerging economies, many of which are already suffering from capital flight, owing to the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary-policy reversal.

In this dualistic environment, China must calibrate its market-oriented reform strategy

By Andrew Sheng and Xiao Geng

together account for 11% of the population and about 30% of GDP – have already reached high-income status, as defined by the World Bank, and the country is set to overtake the United States as the world’s top e-commerce market.

On the other hand, half of China’s population remains rural, deriving a large share of income from agricultural activities.

According to MasterCard, 25% of consumer payments are still made in cash, implying that China’s informal economy remains much more robust than believed.

This duality has positive implications for China’s economic prospects. While its coastal manufacturing activities have fueled much of the economy’s growth over the last few decades, the country’s rural, inland economies will remain strong drivers of growth as domestic consumption rises. In other words, China has an even larger and more diversified economic base than many realize – implying a degree of growth momentum that would be difficult to lose.

It helps that, with $3.8 trln in foreign-

carefully to ensure that it does not create any new and unexpected systemic risks, while overcoming the vested interests that resist substantive reforms aimed at leveling the playing field.

Achieving this will require that China address another, more problematic dualism in its economy: the two-tiered credit system.

Given excess domestic savings, a tightly controlled capital account, and rapid credit creation, interest rates have been low relative to demand since 2005. With the formal banking sector subject to strict controls on deposit and lending rates, large state-owned enterprises and local governments were the only entities that could access enough credit to finance large-scale investments like infrastructure projects.

After the 2008 global financial crisis weakened export growth, the private sector began to move toward non-tradable goods and services, particularly property. This shift – together with the declining currentaccount surplus and massive infrastructure investment – put upward pressure on

domestic interest rates. While the authorities could keep official interest rates under control, unofficial rates began to rise irrepressibly, fueling the rapid expansion of shadow banking.

Easy credit caused property prices to skyrocket, from 2,291 yuan ($374) per square meter, on average, in 2002 to 5,791 yuan a decade later, as measured in 70 large and medium-size Chinese cities. The question now concerns the degree to which this increase reflected rising productivity and prosperity – as did comparable gains in newly industrialized economies like Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea – rather than speculation motivated by easy credit.

Given that China’s 17 top-performing cities are roughly one-third as productive as Hong Kong, where per capita GDP is three times higher, it is not surprising that their property prices amount to about one-third of Hong Kong’s. But rapidly rising property prices in some of China’s less dynamic cities are leading to outward labor migration, effectively turning them into shiny ghost towns.

In pursuing interest-rate liberalization, China must unify formal and informal rates, which requires action at both the macro and micro levels. Specifically, China’s leaders must reform micro-institutions to facilitate the market-driven process of creative destruction, such as through institutionalized bankruptcy processes that help to eliminate ghost cities and failed realestate projects, thereby minimizing the associated macroeconomic disruption.

Furthermore, relying largely on tightening credit to limit risks also raises new complications. While broader structural economic change requires tighter monetary policy and lower inflation, excessively tight monetary policy, given continued high credit demand, could disrupt the adjustment process.

In fact, the slowdown in money-supply growth – from roughly 25% in 2009 to roughly 14% today – has paralleled the shadow-banking sector’s rapid expansion. As of the end of 2012, shadow banking accounted for 24% of total credit, at interest rates 10-15% higher than official rates. This has hurt the real economy by increasing the cost of capital. Unless inefficient borrowers exit the market or declare bankruptcy, they will continue to disrupt resource allocation, crowding out more productive firms.

The key to merging interest rates thus lies in reforming the credit-allocation mechanism to provide more capital to wellperforming projects and enforce hard budget constraints on poor-performing borrowers.

While this will inevitably trigger some defaults and erode the quality of banks’ loan portfolios, the end result – a more balanced and healthy economy – will be more than worth it.

Andrew Sheng, President of the Fung Global Institute, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2014.

FinancialMirror Jobs Issue No. 1072, March 5 - 11, 2014 (PDF EDITION ONLY)

financialmirror.com | JOBS | 25

Issue No. 1072, March 5 - 11, 2014 (PDF EDITION ONLY)

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Issue No. 1072, March 5 - 11, 2014 (PDF EDITION ONLY)

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CIM to host lectures on Cyprus and the economic crisis The Cyprus Institute of Marketing is hosting a pair of open lectures on two issues related to the current economic crisis. The first will be by Marios Loucaides, CEO of the island’s biggest retail group, CTC, who will talk about “Striving through the crisis and the way forward” on Thursday, March 13, at 6pm.

Next Thursday, March 20, George Moschovis from the European Commiossion office in Cyprus will discuss “The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus: One Year After”.

Both lectures will take place at the CIM’s Resilience lecture Theatre, 25 Zannetos str., Ayios Andreas. for information contact events@cima.ac.cy or call 22778475.

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