Financial Mirror 2014 07 30 ISSUU by Financial Mirror

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Issue No. 1094

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July 30 - August 5, 2014

Change of course: should Cyprus turn to the West?

THREE OPTIONS, THREE OPPORTUNITIES - By Fiona Mullen

EBRD, US funds eye half 1 bln cap plan of BOCY €1 PAGE 6

PAGE 3

July 30 - August 5, 2014

2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

FinancialMirror Another “new era” dawns Published every Wednesday by Financial Mirror Ltd.

for Bank of Cyprus

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EDITORIAL

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The rate at which Bank of Cyprus is witnessing successive “new eras”, one would think that we are a former Soviet state that has just come out of a rigid economic model and is suddenly embracing the free market system, with suitors lined up to buy anything they can get their hands on. The only problem is that the one-time driving force of the Cyprus economy has been downgraded from a Formula One racer to a humble rickshaw and all because of poor management by the bank itself, years of supervisory neglect by the Central Bank, inability of shareholders to stand up and be heard and, admittedly, the weakness of the media itself for not being able to dig further deep into the dealing of the banks and its bosses. Now, nearly three years after the bank’s foundations started to shake, BOCY seems to have at last completed its cycle and is about to embark on a truly new era, which, we hope will be an upward path and all stakeholders will get to benefit. The bank has recouped some of the money owed by the government for burdening it with the troubles of the now defunct Laiki Popular. The bill on repossessions will hopefully get through parliament in some form or another in order to help banks recover assets in exchange for non-performing loans, especially from those who can afford to repay but refuse to do so.

And this week, it has received the go-ahead to pump some 1 bln euros in fresh capital from foreign institutionals, with the likes of the EBRD and US hedge funds aiming to grab a 40% share of the bank, and its management. Just as The Cooperative Bank was rescued by 1.5 bln euros of taxpayers’ money, while conservative lender Hellenic has brought some unconventional investors on board at a cost of 100 mln euros, perhaps it was about time we got shareholders with an outsider’s perspective who will help rebuild Bank of Cyprus to the financial giant it used to be. Bringing in non-native CEOs, as was the case of the last two, has been good for the bank, but with little effective impact from non-supportive board members who think that they have the God-given right to meddle with day-to-day banking and operational decisions. With the new investors coming on board, it’s high time the bank was controlled by people who know a thing or two about banking, local or international. CEO John Hourican has been diplomatic in all his statements, unwilling to delve into the past and find the causes of the bank’s meltdown, as he rightly says that he is tasked with fixing what he has at hand – a wounded bank with poor staff morale and inflexible lending mechanism – in order to get the clients (and the economy in general) up and running again. Hopefully, a new, more business-friendly board and shareholders will push for a quick turnaround and a rapid return on investment.

THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO

Inv co’s shrink, Famagusta talks

Investment company assets shrank 7% in the second quarter but cash balances were stable at CYP 54 mln; talks to reopen Famagusta port were underway; and, Greek investors were buying into Interfund, the Financial Mirror reported in issue 579, July 21, 2004. Inv companies: The combined assets of the 25 investment companies listed on the CSE fell 6.9% during the second quarter to CYP 214.3 mln, but cash balances were steady, mildly down at CYP 53.8 mln. However, the 22 Approved Investment Companies and 3 companies listed in the Other sector managed to outperform the CSE All-Share Index, since

20 YEARS AGO

Cypriot banks in Greece, Israeli visit

Bank of Cyprus and the European Popular Bank were breaking new records in Greece, giving local banks there a run for their money, while Cyprus was preparing for a visit by Shimon Peres and Israeli businessmen, the Cyprus Financial Mirror reported in its issue 70, July 27, 1994. Cyprus in Greece: Bank of Cyprus and the Cyprus Popular Bank continued their impressive and spectacular rise in the Greek market. CPB subsidiary European Popular closed its first year of operations by leaping to a 25th

their combined net asset values fell by 8.7% in the second quarter compared to the 12.8% decline of the CSE All Share Index. Famagusta port: Intense efforts are underway to prepare Famagusta port for international safety inspections, following the proposed EU regulations for direct trade published on July 7, with Turkish Cypriots expecting the port to be ready for exports within a month and Greek Cypriots exporters also making enquiries. Under the proposed EU regulation, wholly obtained and processed Turkish Cypriot goods will be exported at preferential tariffs, cutting the cost of goods by as much as 14%, while Greek Cypriot exporters are considering their options regarding trade with Turkey. Interfund investors: A major Greek investment bank and its subsidiaries have recently increased their purchases of Interfund Investments shares, leading many to believe that a partial takeover bid is in the making, driven by the fund’s CYP

4.9 mln cash holding. AG on CSE cases: The Attorney General’s office has filed 36 different cases concerning the CSE during the last four months, with Solon Nikitas telling a closed-door meeting of MPs of shocking details about criminal offences by public company executives. CBMs: The government announced a set of confidence building measures to relieve tension and reinstate a sense of security among the island’s divided population. Government spokesman Kypros Chrysostomides said that four new checkpoints were proposed to double the existing points of passage, while the National Guard proceeded with unilateral demining exercises. CAIR troubles: Cyprus Airways Chairman Constantinos Loizides blamed the previous board for adding debts of CYP 10 mln annually in the last two years following the replacement of A310 aircraft with A330s and the purchase of two smaller A319s.

ranking among all banks in Greece based on total assets of GRD 29.1 bln (CYP58.3 mln) and a net profit of GRD 552 mln (CYP 1.1 mln). Bank of Cyprus, established in Greece just four years earlier, took the 14th place in rankings with total assets of GRD 91.6 bln (CYP 183 mln) up 128% in a year. Israeli visit: Foreign Minister Shimon Peres will pay a three-day visit heading a large delegation of businesspeople, discussing trade and Middle East affairs with President Glafcos Clerides and Foreign Minister Alecos Michaelides. The trade delegation will be greeted by Commerce Minister Stelios Kiliaris Employment: The deceleration of economic activity last year was reflected in the labour market with the rate of unemployment rising to 2.6% of the economically active population, while gainful employment remained practically stagnant, according to the Central Bank annual report.

More companies: Company registrations in the first half of this year increased by 30% over the same period last year and reached 4,000, which also corresponds to a 100% increase when compared to the same period in 1990. Cyprus shipping woes: Lloyd’s List reported that Cyprus-registered ships headed the list of defective vessels detained in foreign ports, saying that according to the Paris Memorandum, 264 Cypriot ships were held in northwest Europe and Canada from 1990 to 1993. Provident funds: Labour Minister Andreas Moushouttas is concerned that the finances of the redundancy fund are exhausted, while moves are underway to bring imminent changes to the operation of the various provident funds. CAIR flies more: Cyprus Airways said that in the first six months of the year it had carried 738,000 passengers, compared to 586,000 in the same period last year, up 26.2%

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Cyprus’ painful pivot west: can we turn it into an opportunity? A new cold war is upon us. And once again little Cyprus finds itself in the middle of competing powers. So as we start to head off for our summer holidays, it is time for a re-think about Cyprus and its future. This involves business-people as much as it involves the political leaders. Because how businesses respond will also affect how well Cyprus adapts to this new and more uncertain world. On the one side of this new cold war is Russia, Cyprus’ largest partner for business services, the fastest-growing market for tourism and with a longstanding friendship that goes back at least as far as Byzantium.

By Fiona Mullen Director, Sapienta Economics Ltd But Russia is heading for economic trouble. The Russian Central Bank has raised interest rates three times this year already and the economy is barely expected to grow in 2014. Add to that the growing list of sanctions, including indirect hits on Russian interests (you know what recent action I am referring to) and doing business with Russia does not look like such a profitable prospect right now. On the other side is the EU (the guys with the money) and the US (the guys with the clout). EU membership is unquestionably a good thing for Cyprus. But size matters. Any systemic risk that Cyprus might have posed to the eurozone shrank during the months in which the previous government took its time and big EU banks got their money out. It evaporated entirely as soon as the Greek branches were sold. The result was the unprecedented haircut on depositors. We also learned in the past two weeks that the new US strategic partnership, while a welcome safety net in a volatile region, also comes with its costs. As has been pointed out elsewhere, big household names have been caught red-handed money-laundering but got away with little more than a fine. One notice of “reasonable grounds” for a bank that represents less than 2% of assets and little Cyprus is forced to shut it down. Since this is Cyprus, we should also consider a third “side” in the new cold war, namely Turkey, whose own relationship with all of the above is also in a state of flux. In my worst nightmares, the Turkish leadership becomes ever more autocratic, picks a fight with Israel or the US and uses Cyprus’ gas facilities as the bait. So how do Cypriot businesses survive and prosper in this new uncertain world? As I see it, there are three steps to doing this.

Diversification step 1: Reduce dependence on Russia The most pressing need is to diversify from overdependence on Russian business. You might know that your client is the cleanest person on the planet, whose only concern is to build a secure future for his children. But Cyprus’ paymasters and partners do not see it that way. Somehow the West will always see Russian money, especially Russian money in Cyprus, as suspect. Your client is now a reputational risk, which means a business risk, and you need to find new ones.

Diversification step 2: Focus on the regional base for oil and gas companies The best way to find new clients in the short term is to grasp the opportunity presented by establishing Cyprus as a regional centre for oil and gas service companies. Given the uncertain direction of gas prices, offering a base to massive companies serving the growing eastern Mediterranean oil and gas industry should be far more profitable in the long term than depending merely on Cyprus’ gas exports. Aberdeen is a good example. It is still prospering long after the oil and gas reserves have dwindled. A regional hydrocarbons service hub, with state-of-the-art infrastructure and services in transport, transit, exploration and management would open up opportunities for Cypriot firms to build capacity and gain the trust of multinationals as diligent partners. If Cyprus does this right, Halliburton and Schlumberger will be followed by others. But getting it right needs a proper plan. It needs robust, independent oil and gas oversight bodies that can keep politicians’ short-sighted business interests at bay. It also needs strong governance. If multinationals are to base themselves here they will expect the highest international

standards. Only with transparent international procurement standards, for example, will they be encouraged to base themselves here and partner up with locals for infrastructure and services. This plan needs to be written not by ministry officials but by those with plenty of international experience. This plan also needs to be put in place fast, before Turkey, Israel, Greece or Lebanon do it for themselves. So grab the business while you can but lobby the government to create the right conditions for you to flourish.

Diversification step 3: Nurture relationships in East Med and North Africa Now, since most of the oil and gas service companies are from the US, Cyprus risks swapping one dependency for another. So during the “seven fat years” of building ourselves as a service hub for hydrocarbons, we should also be developing relationships with those countries around us. As Cleopatra Kitti, a senior advisor to governments and multinationals on market entry and investment strategies pointed out to me the other day, the establishment of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Cyprus presents a new opportunity for organic relationshipbuilding with the countries in our region in which the EBRD is also present. Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco and Jordan have a combined population of 133 mln and combined GDP of USD 440 bln, according to Economist Intelligence Unit statistics. But among all of these countries, only Cyprus is the consistently stable one in which business-people would be happy to bring up their families. The opportunities for conferences, regional bank headquarters, schools, healthcare, sports facilities, transport and so on are immense. But again they need a proper plan.

The last mile: put the Cyprus problem to bed Once we have achieved all of this, there’ll remain only one more thing to do, namely to take away those nightmares I referred to above and put the old national problem to bed. This would open up yet another market, namely Turkey with its population of 75 mln people and GDP of USD 830 bln. Solving the Cyprus problem also requires new thinking that focuses more on Turkish Cypriot interests than those of Turkey. But that is an article for another day. Wishing you happy and thoughtful holidays. * For monthly analysis on the Cyprus economy, banking system and politics, visit www.sapientaeconomics.com

CPA to appoint second advisor for ports privatisation CAIR suitors to be reviewed Nomura, Barclays, Deutsche, Citibank to bid for €1.4 bln plan on Friday Nomura, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Citibank are expected to submit offers to undertake the financial plan for the privatisation of Limassol port, part of a public selloff plan that should earn the state some 1.4 bln euros. Cyprus Ports Authority Chairman Alecos Michaelides said that the four financial consultants will prepare the tender documents and seek investors after advisors KPMG conclude their inventory of the port’s assets and decide which services are most suited for full or part privatisation. Michaelides said that the Authority decided to appoint two consulting firms on the privatisation of the Limassol port’s commercial activities, the first specialises on port operations and will ascertain which activities are to be privatised and the second, a financial firm will prepare the necessary documents and the terms of the tender. “Along with KPMG there will be another firm with experience on ports privatisation and will discuss which parts of the Limassol port will be privatised,” he said. The CPA has already begun assessing initial offers on the second financial consulting firm. “Soon we will proceed with the tender to select the firm in October,” Michaelides added. He said that Nomura, Barclays, Deutsche Bank and

Citibank “are mostly financial consulting firms which will prepare the documents, the final terms of the tender, and assess the various options proposed by the first firm on what is to be privatised.” Michaelides said the privatisation process is expected to be concluded by mid-2015, but the CPA will remain a public organisation for the supervision and regulation of the ports. A privatisation plan approved by the Council of Ministers last year stipulates that commercial activities at Limassol port, loading and unloading containers, transit point will be privatised on the basis of a long-term license to a suitable port operator. The operator will be selected after an international tender by December 31, 2015. The government approved the finalisation plan as part of a set of fiscal consolidation measures included in the terms of the EUR 10 bln bailout Cyprus agreed with its international lenders in March last year. The plan covers the privatisation of Cyprus Telecommunications Authority and the CPA by end 2015, and the Electricity Authority of Cyprus by September 2017. Cyprus needs to secure proceeds of 1 bln by 2016 and an additional 0.4 bln by 2018.

A Ministerial Committee will convene on Friday, August 1 to consider the initial expression of interest for the government’s 94% stake in Cyprus Airways, Communications and Works Minister Marios Demetriades said on Tuesday. The Committee will assess the 20 companies that submitted non-binding expressions of interests (EoI) to acquire the Cypriot air carrier, after which it will proceed with the second stage, the submission of detailed proposals on how these companies plan to utilise the company or the company’s assets. Greece’s Aegean Airlines is one of five airlines that submitted an EoI, with the remainder being travel companies and investment funds. Ryanair, that the media had mistakenly reported as showing a keen interest, said that it will not proceed, as the Financial Mirror had reported last week that CEO Michael O’Leary had said he was more keen on expanding the airline’s operational base in Cyprus, even though airport tariffs are much higher than many other European destinations. O’Leary said he was keen to see Cyprus Airways remain afloat and that he would look into enhancing Ryanair’s presence in the eastern Mediterranean.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

Limassol leads boom in property sector Incre asing tren ds in the firs t five mon th s of 2014 By Alecos Vilanos The recovery and rise in the property sector in 2014 has so far been headed by Limassol which, despite last year’s Eurgroup decisions, continued developing its projects. The town’s biggest project, the Limassol Marina, opened its doors to the public on June 19. The Marina, in combination with the recent offshore discoveries and the development of the energy sector, is expected to attract a significant number of local and foreign investors. The recent data collected by the Department of Lands and Surveys, suggest that Cyprus, due to a collective effort demonstrated by all competent bodies and the government to try and revive the economy as well as to the positive feedback and messages of optimism from international rating agencies, managed so far in 2014 to regain its confidence and credibility in the markets, especially in the area of real estate investing. It also shows that there is a significant increase in the purchase of real estate by foreigners on a national basis. This suggests that Cyprus with its attractive prices offered in combination of quality products and service, good weather, geographical and geopolitical position, the legal framework, the low corporate tax, as well as the conditions in our neighbouring countries, continues to attract the interest of foreign and local investors. FIVE-MONTH BILLS OF SALES 2014 -2013 2014 2013 Change % LIMASSOL 529 366 +45% NICOSIA 371 246 +51% LARNACA 290 264 +10% FAMAGUSTA 136 89 +53% PAPHOS 484 547 -12% TOTAL 1.810 1.512 +20% According to Land Registry data, bills of sales submitted totalled 551 units in May this year as opposed to 214 in May

Car sales enjoy short term boom of 21% The total registrations of motor vehicles during the first half of the year increased by 20.9% to 11,190 in January–June, from 9,258 vehicles in the same period of 2013, according to a Statistical Service report. Private saloon cars increased to 8,414, from 6,627 in January–June 2013, an increase of 27%. Of the total, 4,019 or 47.8% were brand new and 4,395 vehicles or 52.2% were used cars. However, market analysts suggest this boom is linked to two significant factors, that could turn out to be short-lived. “Depositors who had their savings with Bank of Cyprus and have finally secured their savings in parts, after the release of 6-, 9- and 12-month fixed term deposits, would rather put these savings to good use and buy brand new cars in cash, because they no longer trust the banks and the finance schemes,” said one analyst. “The same is also true for depositors with savings in other banks, particularly with the Cooperatives, where an air of insecurity still lingers,” he said. The second factor was that after delaying planned purchases from mid-2012, people need to replace their old cars which are costing more to maintain and are looking for bargains, especially in the category of new luxury and new compact cars, the analyst added. Goods conveyance vehicles registrations increased by 12.1% to 936 in the first half, compared to 835 in 2013. Light goods vehicles (vans, pick-ups) increased by 16.5% to 789, from 677 in 2013.

2013, recording an annual increase of 157%, while bills of sales with foreign buyers amounted to 153 in May compared to 71 in May 2013, recording an equally impressive 115.5% rise. Based on Land Registry data, the number of foreign buyers who have submitted bills sales in Limassol totalled 45 in May compared to just 19 in April. In addition, regarding the bills of sales submitted to the district Land Registry Office in Limassol, during the five months in 2014, there was a 45% increase compared to the five months in 2013. In Limassol, the number of bills of sales submitted in May amounted to 162, compared to 63 in the corresponding month in 2013 (157% increase), while in April 2014 they were 92, compared to 72 same month in 2013 (a 28% increase). On a nationwide basis, during the first five months of the year, there was an increase of 20% in submitting the bills of sales, while in Nicosia there was a 51% increase, in Larnaca there was a 10% increase and in Famagusta there was an increase of 53%. In contrast, Paphos suffered a decrease of 12% in submitting bills of sales. According to sales statistics, the number of cases in Limassol amounted to 223 in May, compared to 158 in April, while the number of plots of land was 121 in January, 179 in February, 143 in March, 171 in April and 233 in May. Also, the total value in May reached EUR 45,583,003.32, as opposed to EUR 28,279,765.60 in April, while the total accepted amount reached EUR 47,748,932.43 in May, compared to 29,917,930. 35 in April. Based on Land Registry data, during the first five months of the year, total sales climbed from 1,512 last year to 1,810 this year for a 20% rise. The number of properties that have been transferred (sales) to foreigners in May in Limassol was 19 compared to 6 in April, while the number of properties that have been transferred (sales) to foreigners on a national basis reached 58 in May compared to 44 in April. Based on Land Registry data, the number of properties for which bills of sales have been submitted by foreign buyers, in Limassol amounted to 37 in May compared to 18 in April, whereas in the case of the number of foreign buyers – transfers (sales) in Limassol these bills of sales reached 24 in May compared to 10 in April. Meanwhile, in Limassol, in addition to the new Marina project, it is expected that the plot of land housing the

Tritoftidi clinic, a total area of about 2,500 square meters, will be utilised by a group of Lebanese investors, while other grandiose projects, such as the Oval luxury office building, are in the process of construction. In conclusion, the real estate sector still retains the leading role for the recovery of the economy. In the years to come, incentives provided by the government to obtain a permanent residence permit or for issuing passports to nonEU nationals along with the purchase of property or investments, like the urban area for large development projects, are expected to increase the demand for real estate and investment market for offices, homes and other facilities. There is optimism around of full recovery of the property sector in Cyprus, and in particular in attracting a larger number of buyers and investors. Investments in property over time lead to long-term benefits and never lose their values. Taking into consideration the figures above, it appears that in May a gradual recovery of the property market was recorded and there is an increasing interest by investors and buyers, while the situation in the real estate market is showing signs of stabilisation. However, in order to achieve a complete recovery and return to normalcy, the restrictions concerning financing for purchase or real estate investment have to be fully reinstated. Alecos Vilanos is Manager of Vilanos Real Estate Agents. info@vilanosproperties.com

Banks adopt dead-end strategies By George Mouskides Cyprus International Institute of Management A healthy banking sector is vital for a sound economy. If banks are to put their house in order and avoid mistakes of the past they must first and foremost take the right decisions at the right time on vital issues. Sixteen whole months have gone by since the “haircut” and banks have failed to adopt a specific strategy concerning issues like non-performing loans (NPL), their restructuring and properties on mortgage. We are all expecting to see the fate of the bill in the House of Representatives about property foreclosures and whether it will be enacted into law, as demanded by the Troika.

Central Bank The Central Bank of Cyprus has already issued directions about the procedures to be followed when re-structuring loan payments. The Bank’s directions offer solid ground for negotiation between the two parties to reach a deal beneficial to both. A great number of people are willing and ready to co-operate with banks and work out a formula so that they switch around their NPLs and start paying as much as humanly possible.

Hard Stance Banks seem to have adopted a very hard stance, making outrageous demands of their customers and basically asking them to agree to solutions well beyond their means. There are many examples of such demands.

When banks are approached to re-structure loans they ask for new guarantors, new mortgages, increased interest rates, etc. Facing economically drained debtors, banks have no inhibitions and make unrealistic demands. The law of physics on force and kinetic energy states that “to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction”. Faced with such harsh demands, bank customers usually respond by terminating any and all payments, hoping that the repossession law will not be passed any time soon or that they will be protected by the government’s intentions to safeguard the right to the primary residence. Banks as a matter of practice do not accept proposals by their customers to buy their properties at today’s low prices in exchange of partial / full re-payment of their loans.

Out of the Question Considering all of the above one has to ask. What is the banks’ strategy? To go ahead with mass foreclosures? Not by a long shot. The reason is that such a development will prove catastrophic for the country’s banking institutions. If such a development was to materialise, the prices of mortgaged properties would fall dramatically, to the point where banks would need to make huge provisions and would have to seek new and hard-to-find capital to recapitalise themselves. As we believe that banks are not suicidal by nature, we find it hard to interpret their strategies. While mass foreclosures are not to their benefit, and while they do not accept pledged properties against the NPLs, we cannot detect a willingness to find common ground with their customers. What is their aim? We need an answer. George Mouskides is General Manager of FOX Smart Estate Agency, Licensed Estate Agent and US Certified Public Accountant

July 30 - August 5, 2014

financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 5

IPT stays at 1980 base, payable by 30/11 ERC says recession The government has decided to stick to the 1980 base value for the immovable property tax (IPT) after it failed in early July to push through parliament a revised bill that would see levies imposed on current values and wants the fees to be paid by the end of November in order to raise some 100 mln euros for the public purse. The Tax Department of the Ministry of Finance announced that all companies, organisations and individuals, resident or not, who had immovable property registered in their name in Cyprus as at January 1, 2014, are subject to IPT, if the total value of their property had a 1980-base value of over EUR 12,500. Initial plans had the government seeking the IPT for properties valued today at more than EUR 200,000, but at a fraction of the tax paid so far, in order to balance the difference. But disagreement arose over the method of calculation, as owners and politicians said it was unfair for those with properties worth over EUR 200,000 to pay the tax in full and those below to pay nothing. The compromise proposal had been to exempt the first EUR 200,000 from the entire value. According to the announcement issued by the Tax Department, “in case you don’t receive a tax assessment during August or if you so receive, but not all of your immovable property is included therein, then you are obliged to file a declaration nd pay the correct amount of tax. “In case where the property of a deceased person has not yet been transferred to the legal heirs, the legal heirs have an obligation to pay the correct amount of tax to the Tax Department; by incorporating the value of the share of the property inherited to their declaration”, it is added. The announcement notes that any objections can be raised by September 30, 2014. The declaration form is available on the web page

to continue in 2015

http://www.mof.gov.cy/ird . The Department added that if the IPT is paid in full by 31 October, there is a 15% discount on the tax payable, while any IPT delayed after November 30 will bear a 10% penalty plus interest and any other administrative charges imposed by the law. On July 10, parliament voted an amendment to the IPT law that removed the tax obligation on sold properties from developers and placing it on buyers, with the deed of sale serving as sufficient proof of ownership transfer in the absence of title deeds. As the old law had placed the tax burden on property owners – with title deeds as the sole criterion for determining ownership – protection to developers from undue IPT payable was deemed necessary by deputies when they were told by Land Registry officials that some 40,000 title deeds had been issued but not collected by buyers who could not afford the transfer fees.

Recession in Cyprus is projected to continue next year as well, the Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus said in its July Economic Outlook, forecasting a contraction in GDP of 0.7% in 2015, unlike a weak growth of 0.4% projected in the adjustment programme. For the current year, the ERC forecasts a moderate recession compared to 2013. ERC says its projections indicate a milder recession for 2014 compared to the contraction of real GDP by 4.2% forecast in the economic adjustment programme. For 2015, the projections indicate that activity will continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace than this year. According to the ERC, real GDP growth for 2014 is projected at -2.7%, with the same rate of contraction recorded in the second quarter, while in the third and fourth quarters real activity is forecast to decline by 2.3% and 1.6%, respectively. The Centre estimates that recession will persist in 2015 but the contraction of real GDP is estimated to decelerate further at -0.7%. Real output is projected to fall by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2015 and by 0.8% in the second and third quarter; in the final quarter of 2015 real GDP is forecast to remain flat. “Although the error pertaining to the projections for 2015 presented here is relatively large, the evidence for a more protracted activity contraction is consistent with some of the attributes of this recession, such as high private and public sector indebtedness levels, adverse credit conditions and deleveraging, weighing further on domestic demand, most notably investment,” the ERC said. “The decline in output for 2014 is estimated to be less severe than in previous quarters, as the recession in Cyprus eased further during the first quarter of the year and economic conditions in the EU continued to improve,” it noted. “Domestic leading indicators associated with real activity and the labour market have also been picking up, adding to the less negative economic outlook.” it added.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

6 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

EBRD, US funds eye half of BOCY €1 bln cap issue Board agrees to 24c offer price

The Bank of Cyprus board decided after a marathon 12-hour meeting on Monday to offer 4.17 bln new shares in a private placement to institutional investors with the aim of raising about EUR 1 bln in fresh capital and boosting its liquidity ratio by more than four percentage points. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and a group of international investors headed by American billionaire Wilbur L. Ross, are expected to subscribe to 52% of the capital increase, with the EU-owned bank saying it will inject some 120 mln euros and the other investors the remaining 400 mln. After agreeing on July 15 to seek new investors, the bank announced the successful private placement of 4.17 bln new ordinary shares at 24c each, offered to new investors and existing shareholders. Existing shareholders currently hold some 4.7 bln shares. It said the placing “was comfortably oversubscribed” and allocated to a broad range of institutional investors from Europe, North America and Russia, including a number of international investors introduced by WL Ross & Co LLC and the EBRD. Ross recently invested in the recapitalisation of Greece’s Eurobank in April with fellow Bank of Ireland investor Fairfax Financial. He has also spoken of exploring opportunities in Italy, Portugal and Spain. The bank added that the closing of the placing is subject to a “clawback” of up to 20% in favour of existing shareholders, subject to an extraordinary general meeting next month. The second offer to existing shareholders will be available for 15 days starting July 31 for a minimum offer of 100,000 euros. The new shares will be unlisted at the time of issue, but the bank said it “intends to proceed with the listing for the entire class of its ordinary shares on the Cyprus Stock Exchange and the Athens Exchange as soon as reasonably practicable ... before the end of the year.” The CSE said the stock will remain suspended in October as well, to allow the bank time to resolve its share register and return to the market. The bank said it will also offer an additional 100 mln euros of new ordinary shares to all existing shareholders, thus allowing current stakeholders to minimise the losses from a dilution of their shareholding.

HSBC and Credit Suisse acted as lead placing agents, with Deutsche Bank and VTB Capital acting as co-lead placing agents. The bank’s subsidiary CISCO was the local placing agent. The bank said that after the capital raising, its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio is expected to rise from 10.6% by more than four percentage points to 15.1%, thus providing a safety cushion prior to the Europe-wide stress tests in October. “The fact that high calibre institutional investors were interested and participated successfully in this exercise is a testament to their confidence in the bank and also in the economy of Cyprus,” said Chairman Christis Hassapis. The placement was hailed by many stakeholders, including the Cyprus Investment Funds Association (CIFA) that said that this will help restore confidence in the bank, after the government recently successfully return to the markets with its first euro bond issue in more than three years. The bank’s CEO, John Hourican, added “we are delighted with the quality of investors and the broad investor base including international investors introduced by WL Ross, the EBRD as well as other institutional investors which we believe have a long-term view. We are pleased to welcome them as new shareholders and we appreciate the continued support of our existing shareholders.”

“In co-operation with the senior management of the Bank of Cyprus, we were pleased to assist with the introduction of international investors who are committed to buying about 40% of this placement,” added Wilbur L. Ross, Founder and Chairman of WL Ross & Co. LLC. The Financial Mirror had earlier reported that US-based hedge funds were keen to grab more than half of the offered capital increase, expressing an interest to subscribe to 54% of the capital increase and thus a majority control of the board, while another hedge fund has submitted a bid of 30 cents a share, that in

‘Duped’ BOCY shareholders to sue The old shareholders of Bank of Cyprus, who saw their stakes diluted to less than 0.5% last year and new shares issued to depositors in exchange for equity, known as the ‘bail in’, plan to sue the bank and the resolution authorities for their losses and to restore their rights. Heading the association of nearly 88,000 old BOCY shareholders, Archbishop Chrysostomos said Monday’s meeting drafted a petition that will be handed to President Nicos Anastasiades. The association had earlier announced that it wanted the restoration of the value of their pre-bailin equity stakes in the bank by recognising a 1.9 bln euro profit arising from BOCY’s reluctant takeover of ex-Laiki bank’s operations, or the granting of property owned by the bank in the occupied areas, held in the lender’s books at zero value. The association’s legal advisor Kypros Chrysostomides said that “it is more than obvious that the treatment the Bank of Cyprus’ old shareholders were subjected to is illegal, based on both the Cypriot constitution and European law, and now based on company law because the Bank of Cyprus is arbitrarily going ahead with a capital increase at the expense of every shareholder, old and new alike.”

War adds pressure t o air traffic, Cyprus braces for ev acuees

The war in the Gaza Strip has complicated air traffic control in the region, with the Deputy Director of Cyprus Civil Aviation Persephone Papadopoulou saying that air traffic continues to be perfectly safe. Papadopoulou said that air traffic has not increased due to the situation in Gaza, but that air traffic control has become more complicated because a specific point in an air corridor has been closed. She explained that a specific passage used by aircraft taking off from Israel and heading west, and monitored by Nicosia’s Flight Information Region (FIR) has been closed. Those airplanes are channelled through another air corridor further north, which crosses the path of arrivals. Papadopoulou said that the only thing that has changed is the workload of the Civil Aviation Department as when some companies decided not to travel to Israel, their airplanes landed at Larnaca airport and the passengers were carried by Israeli airlines. Meanwhile, Cyprus Interior Minister Socrates Hasikos said that Cyprus is ready to accept European citizens or other nationals that will flee Gaza or Syria due to the ongoing crisis, pointing out that these individuals must use Cyprus as a transit point towards their final destination. The Minister said that Cyprus has the infrastructure and the operational work plans to deal with the situation and that the EU is already addressing the crisis and that there is a European project involving all member states.

itself would cover the entire new capital and again seek board control. In an announcement on Tuesday, the EBRD said it will invest up to 120 mln euros in Bank of Cyprus, as part of the capital raise which is subject to a clawback of up to 20% by existing shareholders and certain conditions, including the passing of shareholder resolutions at a forthcoming extraordinary general meeting. “Through this investment, the EBRD is actively engaging in supporting the implementation of the ongoing restructuring plan and the stabilisation of the bank’s operations,” it said. “Supporting the restructuring and recovery of Bank of Cyprus is critical for the economy as a whole. As an active shareholder one of our priorities will be to work towards improvements in corporate governance. This successful capital raise is a positive signal to the markets, providing investors with additional confidence,” said EBRD’s First Vice President Phil Bennett. The EBRD’s shareholders decided at the annual meeting in Warsaw to start investing in Cyprus with one of the priorities being to strengthen the financial sector, making it more robust to future shocks and improving its governance. The acquisition of a stake in Bank of Cyprus is the EBRD’s first investment in Cyprus, as part of a 700 mln euro investment planned for the economy, in addition to setting up a local office o consider and monitor other investments.

Cytavision, APOEL in €9 mln TV rights deal Cyprus football champions APOEL FC signed a 5year television rights deal with state-owned cable provider Cytavision worth 8.9 mln euros, seen by fans as far better than the club’s previous agreement with LTV. The agreement for 2014-19, signed on Friday by club president Prodhromos Petrides and Cyta board vice chairman Andreas Marangos, will be limited to local league games starting next month and will double the Nicosia football club’s revenues, according to fan site Apoel.Net. The site said that the deal replaces the present agreement with cable operator LTV, adding that the company had trouble paying the previous amount due from the “bad deal”. The cooperation agreement also does not include other commercial clauses, such as jersey sponsorship, unlike deals between other clubs and TV providers, which makes it even more favourable, as the club is free to secure additional revenue streams from new sponsors. Cytavision said that the deal also includes

APOEL’s European championship qualifier home games, together with those of the other major league clubs Anorthosis, Omonia, Apollon and AEL which it has already secured. The new sports season package will also include 300 Premier League games a year for 2014-2016, a further 130 games a year from the German Bundesliga also for 2014-16, the Euro 2016 qualifiers and the World Cup 2018 qualifiers, apart from the Cyprus national team’s games in 2014-15 that will be broadcast in a free-view zone, as well as the NBA basketball games for 2014-16. Cyta vice chairman Marangos said that the aim was to maximise the telco’s value so that the denationalisation can proceed on better terms with potential new buyers. The organisation if one of a handful of state-owned enterprises and assets that the government wants to divest in order to raise some 1.8 bln euros over the next four years and reduce the burden on taxpayers as part of the 10 bln euro bailout plan and economic adjustment programme agreed with the Troika of international lenders.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

8 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

A CHEESE FOR ALL SEASONS… and A PAN TO MATCH

Making Halloumi from “Cyprus in the Footsteps of Louis-Francois Cassas”, by Phillippe Delord. Yes, it’s true. Where Cyprus leads, eventually Britain follows. Well, sometimes! Imagine my surprise the other day when I looked at the cheese shelves at my nearby supermarket, which has maybe more than a hundred varieties from all over the world, and there by the side of “Cypressa” halloumi was a similar cheese made in Britain. I had to buy some. Its flavour was excellent and its texture just a little firmer than Cyprus Halloumi, and it wasn’t as “squeaky” as the real thing. I learned what, for me, is the best way to serve Halloumi hot at a taverna in Paphos, when slices of it came to the table sizzling in a small pan with two handles. I asked the waiter what he called it. “Saganaki” he said. A utensil, a small, sturdy, range-top pan with two handles, which will also go into the oven. Quite heavy, because it is designed to bring steady, not searing heat to what is being cooked. To brown not burn. These days, Saganaki has come to mean pieces of hard, quite strong cheese cut into small pieces and browned (Plain or in butter or oil) on all sides, with the interior deliciously soft. Now, too, it is often qualified by ‘Shrimp’, ‘Crab’ or other refinements. But, the word actually means the pan. Cheese Saganaki requires a semi-hard cheese such as Kaseri, Graviera or Kefalotiri. At this point methods vary. One cook will simply put small spices or cubes of cheese into her lightly oiled Saganaki and bring the cheese to bubbling, but not brown, on both sides, whilst another makes pie-slice shape cuts. The essence of the thing is to get the cheese to table in the quickest possible time. My preferred method is to cut my cheese (customarily this is Kefalotiri) into half-inch (1 cm) slices and then into pieces about 2” x 1” (5cms x 2.5cms). Then wet the pieces on all sides and dip into some peppered flour. Now melt a good knob of butter until it is just starting to brown, or heat two tablespoons of olive oil and fry the cheese pieces until lightly goldenbrown on both sides. Some cooks prefer to use slices rather than little chunks, but the cheese may not get soft all the way through. Quantities of butter or oil vary, too. Youngest son, a vegetarian, likes a couple of fried eggs added to his fried cheese; an excellent lunch dish accompanied by a tomato salad and fresh bread. Which brings me back to the harder cheese variety… when you have turned your cheese and are browning the second side, this is the time to make additions. * Eggs, for instance, taking care not to break them. Gently add them to the cheese and cook. Halloumi is the best cheese for this.

* Chopped skinned plum tomatoes, which you have mixed with some chopped chives, or fresh herbs, salt and pepper, just to warm through. A great favourite around my table is this simple dish. Peeled shrimp and lots of chopped garlic quickly fried in very hot olive oil, with generous pinches of chopped parsley thrown in 30 seconds before serving. This may also be cooked in individual Saganaki in a very, very hot oven. Saganaki pans of different sizes are an invaluable part of the kitchen equipment. True, most have metal handles needing a cloth to pick them up, but then they don’t have long handles which can protrude over other sections of the cooker or over the front where enquiring children can pull them off the stove. They can go in the oven or under the grill, too. Tip: if it is impractical to fry your recipe in separate Saganaki, use a large pan and spoon into small ones, but make sure these are pre-heated and sizzling hot to come to the table. These days, two-handled frying pans mostly come non-stick, which I find even better for crisping the cheese. I use them all the time. Personally, I love dishes coming to a diner directly from the cooker. Saves on washing up, too.

Grill Saganaki (1) After pre-heating the oven to 425Fº (220Cº), in a large frying pan, to serve four to six, in olive oil, fry onions, garlic, mushrooms, tomatoes and some fresh herbs. When just cooked through, ladle the mixture into one Saganaki per person, make well in the centre and break in egg. Then grate hard cheese over each and put under a hot grill until the cheese is bubbling.

Grill Saganaki (2) This is an ever-popular dish, in which you can permutate all kinds of fish and seafood – scallops, salmon, lobster, sole and so forth. Ingredients for 4 – 6 servings as a starter

One quantity of Béchamel Sauce 350 g filleted white fish 250 g cooked shrimp (If small use whole. Slice larger ones) 125 g mushrooms, thinly sliced 2 cups (16 fl oz / half litre) of Béchamel 1 tbsp tablespoon dry sherry 60 g grated Parmesan cheese Salt and pepper Method

1. Take a good knob of butter and melt in a small frying pan. 2. Fry the lightly seasoned sliced mushrooms, turning from time to time until the juices have evaporated. Remove and set aside. 3. Poach the fish fillet in milk and a little butter, salt and pepper. When just cooked through, remove from the pan and reserve the milk mixture (which should be used in the Béchamel sauce); skin the fish if necessary and flake coarsely. 4 Mix together the cooked mushrooms, fish and prawns. 5. Take four/six small Saganaki and spoon in the fish mixture to each. 6. Stir the dry sherry into the Béchamel sauce and pour over the fish, mixing in gently. 7. Sprinkle the grated cheese over and brown under the grill.

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A AÚ. 976

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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 30 π√À§π√À, 2014

ªÂ €120 ÂÎ. ı· Û˘ÌÌÂÙ¤¯ÂÈ Ë EBRD ÛÙËÓ ·‡ÍËÛË ÎÂÊ·Ï·›Ô˘ ÙË˜ ∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Μέχρι 120 εκ. ευρώ θα επενδύσει στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου η Ευρωπαϊκή Τράπεζα ΑνασυγκρÞτησησ και Ανάπτυξησ (EBRD), στα πλαίσια αύξησησ του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου τησ τράπεζασ κατά 1 δισ ευρώ. Οι µέτοχοι τησ EBRD αποφάσισαν κατά την Ετήσια Συνέλευση τησ Τράπεζασ το 2014 στη Βαρσοβία να αρχίσουν να επενδύουν στην Κύπρο, θέτοντασ ωσ προτεραιÞτητα την ενίσχυση του χρηµατοπιστωτικού τοµέα, καθιστώντασ το πιο ισχυρÞ σε µελλοντικούσ κλυδωνισµούσ, και τη βελτίωση τησ διακυβέρνησησ του. Ο πρώτοσ ΑντιπρÞεδροσ τησ EBRD Phil Bennett δήλωσε Þτι “αυτή είναι η πρώτη µασ επένδυση στην Κύπρο και είµαστε ικανοποιηµένοι για το γεγονÞσ Þτι µασ επιτρέπει να χρησιµοποιήσουµε την εµπειρία που έχουµε στο χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ τοµέα προσ Þφελοσ τησ χώρασ”. Μέσω αυτήσ τησ επένδυσησ, η EBRD συµµετέχει ενεργά στη στήριξη τησ εφαρµογήσ του εν εξελίξει προγράµµατοσ αναδιάρθρωσησ και σταθεροποίησησ των εργασιών τησ τράπεζασ. Η EBRD σηµειώνει Þτι η οικονοµία και το χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα τησ Κύπρου επλήγησαν σκληρά απÞ την παγκÞσµια χρηµατοπιστωτική κρίση και την ύφεση στην ευρωζώνη µε αποτέλεσµα να επηρεαστεί σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ και η Τράπεζα Κύπρου. Η Τράπεζα Κύπρου, προσθέτει, έχει πλέον ξεκινήσει την υλοποίηση ενÞσ ολοκληρωµένου προγράµµατοσ αναδιάρθρωσησ σύµφωνα µε τουσ βασικούσ πυλώνεσ του διεθνούσ πακέτου διάσωσησ για την Κύπρο, το οποίο συµφωνήθηκε µε την ΤρÞικα, ύψουσ 10 δισ ευρώ. Ωσ η µεγαλύτερη τράπεζα τησ χώρασ, συνεχίζει, η επίδοση τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου σχετίζεται σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ µε την οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα στη χώρα. Η σταθεροποίηση και η επιτυχήσ αναδιάρθρωση τησ τράπεζασ είναι κρίσιµη για την πλήρη ανάκαµψη τησ οικονοµίασ τησ χώρασ και του χρηµατοπιστωτικού τοµέα, επισηµαίνει.

M¤Ûˆ È‰ÈˆÙÈÎ‹˜ ÙÔÔı¤ÙËÛË˜ ÙÔ €1 ‰È˜ Την ∆ευτέρα η Τράπεζα Κύπρου είχε ανακοινώσει πωσ παραχωρήθηκαν µέσω ιδιωτικήσ τοποθέτησησ µετοχέσ αξίασ 1 δισ ευρώ, σε ένα ευρύ φάσµα θεσµικών επενδυτών απÞ Ευρώπη, ΒÞρεια Αµερική και Ρωσία, συµπεριλαµβανοµένου αριθµού επενδυτών που προσέλκυσε η WL Ross & Co LLC καθώσ και τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ ΑνασυγκρÞτησησ και Ανάπτυξησ. Πάντωσ ο Γουίλµπορ Ροσ ιδρυτήσ και ΠρÞεδροσ WL Ross&Co LLC που προσέλκυσε επενδυτέσ για το 40% τησ τοποθέτησησ, εµφανίστηκε θετικÞσ ωσ προσ νέεσ επενδύσεισ στην Κύπρο.

Σύµφωνα µε την τράπεζα η αύξηση του µετοχικού κεφαλαίου κατά 1 δισ ευρώ σε συνδυασµÞ µε τισ ενέργειεσ αποµÞχλευσησ που έχουν ολοκληρωθεί µετά τη λήξη του πρώτου τρίµηνου του 2014, αναµένεται να ενισχύσουν το δείκτη Κεφαλαίου Κοινών Μετοχών Κατηγορίασ 1 (CRD IV/CRR – µε µεταβατικέσ διατάξεισ) σε 15,6% και το δείκτη Κεφαλαίου Κοινών Μετοχών Κατηγορίασ 1 (CRD IV/CRR– χωρίσ µεταβατικέσ διατάξεισ) σε 15,1%. «Η Τράπεζα ανακοινώνει την επιτυχή ολοκλήρωση τησ ιδιωτικήσ τοποθέτησησ 4.166.666.667 νέων συνήθων µετοχών στην τιµή των 0,24 ευρώ µε συνολικά µεικτά έσοδα 1 δισ ευρώ», αναφέρεται. Προχωρεί επίσησ «στη ∆εύτερη φάση τησ Αύξησησ Μετοχικού Κεφαλαίου («Ανοικτή Προσφορά»), κατά την οποία οι υφιστάµενοι µέτοχοι θα µπορούν, µέσα σε περίοδο 15 ηµερών που αρχίζει στισ 31 Ιουλίου 2014, να υποβάλουν αίτηση για αριθµÞ µετοχών µέχρι 20% του συνολικού αριθµού µετοχών που παραχωρήθηκαν στην Τοποθέτηση στην ίδια τιµή µε την Τιµή ∆ιάθεσησ Τοποθέτησησ». Η ελάχιστη επένδυση στην Ανοικτή Προσφορά θα είναι 100.000 ευρώ ανά υφιστάµενο µέτοχο, διευκρινίζεται. Η ανακοίνωση συνεχίζει αναφέροντασ Þτι «η κατανοµή στουσ επενδυτέσ, κατά την Πρώτη φάση, θα αναπροσαρµοστεί για να καλυφθούν οι µετοχέσ που θα κατανεµηθούν στουσ υφιστάµενουσ µετÞχουσ κατά τη διαδικασία clawback, µε τρÞπο ώστε τα συνολικά µεικτά έσοδα τησ έκδοσησ, τÞσο απÞ την Πρώτη φάση Þσο και τη ∆ηµÞσια Προσφορά, να ανέρχονται συνολικά σε 1 δισ ευρώ». Για την ολοκλήρωση τησ Ανοικτήσ Προσφοράσ ισχύουν οι ίδιεσ προϋποθέσεισ που ισχύουν για την Τοποθέτηση. ∆εδοµένου Þτι αυτέσ οι προϋποθέσεισ ικανοποιηθούν, προστίθεται, «το συνολικÞ εκδοµένο µετοχικÞ κεφάλαιο τησ Τράπεζασ, µετά την ολοκλήρωση τησ Τοποθέτησησ και τησ Ανοικτήσ Προσφοράσ θα ανέρχεται σε 892.237.734,50 ευρώ διαιρεµένο σε 8.922.377.345 Συνήθεισ Μετοχέσ ονοµαστικήσ αξίασ 0,10 ευρώ ανα µετοχή». ΕπιπρÞσθετα, αναφέρεται, «κατά την Τρίτη φάση τησ αύξησησ µετοχικού κεφαλαίου, η Τράπεζα θα προσφέρει µέχρι 100.000.000 ευρώ νέεσ συνήθεισ µετοχέσ (επιπρÞσθετα απÞ αυτέσ που θα εκδοθούν κατά την Πρώτη και ∆εύτερη φάση) για υποβολή προσφορών απÞ υφιστάµενουσ µετÞχουσ (εξαιρουµένων αυτών που συµµετείχαν στην Τοποθέτηση εκτÞσ και αν ήταν υφιστάµενοι µέτοχοι πριν την Τοποθέτηση), πριν απÞ οποιανδήποτε εισαγωγή µετοχών στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου και το Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών (που υπÞκειται στη λήψη των αναγκαίων εγκρίσεων απÞ τισ αρµÞδιεσ αρχέσ)».

∂ÎÙfi˜ Ã∞∫ Ì¤¯ÚÈ ÙÔ Ù¤ÏÔ˜ √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘ Τη συνέχιση τησ αναστολήσ διαπραγµάτευσησ των µετοχών τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου απÞ την 1η Αυγούστου µέχρι το τέλοσ Οκτωβρίου του 2014, ανακοίνωσε το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου (ΧΑΚ), ύστερα και απÞ σχετική απÞφαση τησ Επιτροπήσ Κεφαλαιαγοράσ. Σε ανακοίνωση η Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράσ αναφέρει Þτι κατέληξε στην απÞφαση αυτή “ώστε να δοθεί χρÞνοσ, βάσει του χρονοδιαγράµµατοσ που έχει δοθεί απÞ την εταιρεία για την ολοκλήρωση τησ διαδικασίασ αύξησησ κεφαλαίου και τη δηµοσίευση του Ενηµερωτικού ∆ελτίου το οποίο θα αφορά την εισαγωγή Þλων των µετοχών τησ στο ΧΑΚ”. Η Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράσ έλαβε την απÞφαση για συνέχιση τησ αναστολήσ τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ των µετοχών τησ Τράπεζα Κύπρου στο ΧΑΚ, µέχρι το τέλοσ Οκτωβρίου 2014 σε συνεδρία τησ ηµεροµηνίασ 21 Ιουλίου 2014, µε βάση το άρθρο 127(2) των περί Επενδυτικών Υπηρεσιών και ∆ραστηριοτήτων και ΡυθµιζÞµενων Αγορών ΝÞµων του 2007 έωσ 2012.

TÂÏÂÈÒÓÂÈ ÙÔ ÔÍ˘ÁfiÓÔ ÁÈ· ÙÈ˜ ∫˘ÚÈ·Î¤˜ ∞ÂÚÔÁÚ·ÌÌ¤˜ «Tελειώνει το οικονοµικÞ οξυγÞνο για τισ Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ» και γι αυτÞ θα συνεδριάσει την 1η Αυγούστου η διυπουργική επιτροπή για εξέταση των προσφορών στρατηγικών επενδυτών για την εταιρεία. Οι προσφορέσ αφορούν την αγορά µετοχών και περιουσιακών στοιχείων. Μέχρι τισ 23 Ιουλίου που έληξε η περίοδοσ εκδήλωσησ ενδιαφέροντοσ είχαν κατατεθεί 20 µη δεσµευτικέσ προσφορέσ, εκ των οποίων η µία προερχÞταν απÞ την Ryanair η οποία τελικά απέσυρε το ενδιαφέρον τησ, µιασ και οι Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ αφήνουν ωσ κληρονοµιά τεράστια προβλήµατα, σύµφωνα µε τον ∆ιευθύνων Σύµβουλο τησ εταιρείασ, Μάικλ Ο’ Λίρι. Στη διυπουργική επιτροπή, πέραν των Υπουργών Οικονοµικών και Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού, συµµετέχουν η Γενική Λογίστρια τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ και ο ΠρÞεδροσ του ∆Σ των ΚΑ, οι σύµβουλοι τησ εταιρείασ KPMG και άλλοι τεχνοκράτεσ. Οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι θα πρέπει µέχρι το τέλοσ του Σεπτέµβρη να υποβάλουν συγκεκριµένη πρÞταση, αφού προηγουµένωσ επισκεφθούν την Κύπρο και λάβουν απÞ την

εταιρεία τα αναγκαία στοιχεία που θα τουσ βοηθήσουν στην τελική πρÞταση που θα υποβάλουν. Χθεσ ο ΥπουργÞσ Συγκοινωνιών και Έργων Μάριοσ ∆ηµητριάδησ, δήλωσε πωσ Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ χρειάζονται στρατηγικÞ επενδυτή για να καταφέρουν να επιβιώ-

σουν µακροπρÞθεσµα, προσθέτοντασ Þτι µετά την επίδειξη ενδιαφέροντοσ απÞ αρκετέσ εταιρείεσ για επένδυση στον εθνικÞ αεροµεταφορέα, η κυβέρνηση προχωρεί στο δεύτερο στάδιο που είναι η παρουσίαση των προτάσεων των εταιρειών για αξιοποίηση του ενεργητικού τησ. Ο ΥπουργÞσ ανέφερε Þτι «στο πρώτο στάδιο τησ διαδικασίασ είχαν εκφράσει το αρχικÞ ενδιαφέρον τουσ γύρω στισ 20 εταιρείεσ, απÞ τισ οποίεσ τουλάχιστον πέντε έχουν σχέση µε τον τοµέα των αεροµεταφορών». Ερωτηθείσ τι θα γίνει σε περίπτωση που, µετά την απÞσυρση ενδιαφέροντοσ απÞ την αεροπορική εταιρεία Ryanair, υπάρξει µαζική απÞσυρση και απÞ άλλεσ εταιρείεσ, ο ΥπουργÞσ Συγκοινωνιών απάντησε πωσ «ο µÞνοσ τρÞποσ για να διαπιστώσει κάποιοσ εάν υπάρχει πραγµατικά ενδιαφέρον ήταν να προχωρήσει µε τη διαδικασία µε την οποία έχουµε αρχίσει. Σε ερώτηση κατά πÞσον υπάρχει σχέδιο Β σε περίπτωση που οι αεροπορικέσ εταιρείεσ αποσύρουν το ενδιαφέρον τουσ για τισ Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ, ο κ. ∆ηµητριάδησ απάντησε Þτι «πάντα υπάρχουν σχέδια Β.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

30 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ 2014

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

ªÂÚÈÎ‹ ‚ÂÏÙ›ˆÛË ÙÔ˘ ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎÔ‡ ÎÏ›Ì·ÙÔ˜ Η ύφεση στην Κυπριακή οικονοµία το 2014 προβλέπεται ηπιÞτερη σε σχέση µε το 2013, σύµφωνα µε τα νέα στοιχεία του Κέντρου Οικονοµικών Ερευνών του Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου. Ο ρυθµÞσ µεταβολήσ του ΑΕΠ (σε σταθερέσ τιµέσ) για το 2014 εκτιµάται σε -2,7%. Κατά το δεύτερο τρίµηνο του 2014 το πραγµατικÞ ΑΕΠ προβλέπεται να συρρικνωθεί κατά 2,7% σε σχέση µε το αντίστοιχο τρίµηνο του 2013. Στο τρίτο και τέταρτο τρίµηνο του έτουσ η πραγµατική οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα υπολογίζεται να µειωθεί κατά 2,3% και 1,6%, αντίστοιχα. Η ύφεση προβλέπεται να συνεχίσει και το 2015, ωστÞσο η συρρίκνωση του ΑΕΠ εκτιµάται Þτι θα επιβραδυνθεί περαιτέρω µε την πρÞβλεψη για το έτοσ να διαµορφώνεται στο -0,7%. Το ΑΕΠ προβλέπεται να µειωθεί κατά 1,1% το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2015 (συγκριτικά µε το αντίστοιχο τρίµηνο του 2014) και κατά 0,8% το δεύτερο και τρίτο τρίµηνο, ενώ το τελευταίο τρίµηνο το ΑΕΠ εκτιµάται Þτι θα παραµείνει στα

ίδια επίπεδα µε το αντίστοιχο τρίµηνο του 2014. Η πρÞβλεψη για ηπιÞτερη ύφεση το 2014 οφείλεται στην επιβράδυνση τησ συρρίκνωσησ του ΑΕΠ και την περαιτέρω βελτίωση των οικονοµικών συνθηκών στην ΕΕ το πρώτο τρίµηνο του 2014. ∆ιάφοροι εγχώριοι προπορευÞµενοι δείκτεσ, που σχετίζονται µε την πραγµατική δραστηριÞτητα και την αγορά εργασίασ, συνέχισαν να βελτιώνονται κατά το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2014, µε αποτέλεσµα λιγÞτερο αρνητικέσ προβλέψεισ σε σχέση µε το προηγούµενο τεύχοσ του δελτίου. Άλλεσ πρÞσφατεσ οικονοµικέσ εξελίξεισ που συνέτειναν στην εκτίµηση λιγÞτερο αρνητικών προβλέψεων περιλαµβάνουν: (α) την ενδυνάµωση τησ οικονοµικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ στην Κύπρο και την ευρωζώνη, (β) τισ ευνοϊκέσ επιδÞσεισ των χρηµατιστηριακών αγορών και (γ) την επιβράδυνση του ρυθµού συρρίκνωσησ των καταθέσεων. Παράλληλα Þµωσ, οι δυσµενείσ πιστωτικέσ συνθήκεσ που χαρακτηρίζονται απÞ µείωση

των δανείων και σχετικά ψηλά δανειστικά επιτÞκια φαίνεται να επιβαρύνουν σηµαντικά την οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα ειδικÞτερα προσ το τέλοσ του 2014 και καθ’ Þλη τη διάρκεια του 2015. Η υποχώρηση στα επιτÞκια των κρατικών οµολÞγων ευρωπαϊκών χωρών, συµπεριλαµβανοµένου και αυτού τησ Κύπρου, έχουν έµµεσεσ θετικέσ επιπτώσεισ στο ΑΕΠ. Παρ’ Þλα αυτά, οι πρÞσφατεσ θετικέσ εξελίξεισ σχετικά µε τισ αποδÞσεισ των κρατικών οµολÞγων, τουσ δείκτεσ οικονοµικού κλίµατοσ και χρηµατιστηριακών αγορών δεν επαρκούν για να δώσουν προβλέψεισ θετικών ρυθµών µεταβολήσ του ΑΕΠ για το 2015, µε δεδοµένεσ τισ τρέχουσεσ συνθήκεσ στην εγχώρια πραγµατική οικονοµία. Οι προβλέψεισ συνοδεύονται απÞ κινδύνουσ για βαθύτερη απÞ την προβλεπÞµενη ύφεση. Οι κίνδυνοι αυτοί σχετίζονται κυρίωσ µε το εγχώριο τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα και το διεθνέσ περιβάλλον.

TÔÓ √ÎÙÒ‚ÚÈÔ Ë ÂÈÏÔÁ‹ ÙÔ˘ 2Ô˘ Û˘Ì‚Ô‡ÏÔ˘ ÁÈ· §ÈÌ¿ÓÈ §ÂÌÂÛÔ‡ Τον Οκτώβριο θα επιλεγεί ο δεύτεροσ συµβουλευτικÞσ οίκοσ για την αποκρατικοποίηση του εµπορικού σκέλουσ του Λιµένα Λεµεσού, δήλωσε ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Αρχήσ Λιµένων Κύπρου, Αλέκοσ Μιχαηλίδησ. Ùπωσ είπε ο κ. Μιχαηλίδησ, η Κυβέρνηση επέλεξε να προσλάβει δύο ξεχωριστούσ συµβούλουσ για το θέµα τησ αποκρατικοποίησησ των εµπορικών δραστηριοτήτων του Λιµένα Λεµεσού. Οι πρώτοι είναι εξειδικευµένοι στα θέµα λειτουργίασ λιµένων, θα διακριβώσουν τι πρέπει να αποκρατικοποιηθεί, ενώ οι δεύτεροι θα είναι κυρίωσ χρηµατοοικονοµικοί και θα αναλάβουν την ετοιµασία εγγράφων για την τελική προσφορά. Για την πρώτη οµάδα συµβούλων έχει επιλεγεί ο οίκοσ KPMG, ο οποίοσ µεταξύ άλλων θα διενεργήσει µελέτη για να διακριβωθεί ποιεσ υπηρεσίεσ θα δοθούν στον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα. «Μαζί τουσ θα υπάρχει σύµβουλοσ µε εµπειρία στην

«∂ÓÂÚÁÂÈ·Î‹» ÚfiÛÎÏËÛË ·fi ÙËÓ §ÂÌÂÛfi Νέα πρÞσκληση στισ εταιρείεσ υποστήριξησ των διερευνητικών γεωτρήσεων για τουσ υδρογονάνθρακεσ κάνει η ΛεµεσÞσ, η οποία διαµηνύει για ακÞµη µια φορά την ετοιµÞτητα τησ να φιλοξενήσει αυτέσ τισ εταιρείεσ. Ùπωσ αναφέρει σε ανακοίνωση του ο ∆ήµοσ Λεµεσού, µε αφορµή τη συζήτηση για το λιµάνι Λάρνακασ και τισ διάφορεσ αντιδράσεισ, “δεν έχουµε πρÞβληµα ωσ ΛεµεσÞσ να φιλοξενήσουµε εκ νέου τισ εταιρείεσ υποστήριξησ των διερευνητικών γεωτρήσεων για τουσ υδρογονάνθρακεσ, µετά την λήξη των αδειών που έχουν πάρει απÞ την Αρχή Λιµένων για το λιµάνι τησ Λάρνακασ”. Η θέση αυτή, σηµειώνει η ανακοίνωση, διατυπώνεται απÞ κοινού µε άλλουσ φορείσ τησ πÞλησ.

∂ÁÁÚ·Ê‹ 11.190 Ô¯ËÌ¿ÙˆÓ ÛÙÔ ÂÍ¿ÌËÓÔ Αύξηση 20,9% σηµείωσε ο συνολικÞσ αριθµÞσ των νεοεγγραφέντων οχηµάτων τουσ πρώτουσ έξι µήνεσ του 2014, σε σύγκριση µε την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2013, σύµφωνα µε την έκθεση “Εγγραφέσ Μηχανοκίνητων Οχηµάτων”, τησ Στατιστικήσ Υπηρεσίασ. Ο συνολικÞσ αριθµÞσ των νεοεγγραφέντων οχηµάτων ανήλθε την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου - Ιουνίου 2014 στισ 11.190, σε σύγκριση µε 9.258 κατά την ίδια περίοδο του 2013. Οι εγγραφέσ ιδιωτικών αυτοκινήτων σαλούν αυξήθηκαν κατά 27,0% και έφτασαν στισ 8.414, σε σύγκριση µε 6.627 που ήταν το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2013. ΑπÞ το σύνολο των ιδιωτικών αυτοκινήτων σαλούν, 4.019 ή 47,8% ήταν καινούρια και 4.395 ή 52,2% ήταν µεταχειρισµένα αυτοκίνητα. Οι εγγραφέσ των εµπορικών και φορτηγών αυτοκινήτων έφτασαν τισ 936 σε σύγκριση µε 835 που ήταν το 2013, σηµειώνοντασ αύξηση 12,1%. Τα ελαφρά φορτηγά αυξήθηκαν κατά 16,5% και έφθασαν τα 789, απÞ 677 το 2013. Τα βαριά φορτηγά µειώθηκαν κατά 22,9% σε 91 κατά το πρώτο εξάµηνο του 2014, απÞ 118 το 2013. Οι εγγραφέσ µοτοποδηλάτων<50(κ.ε.) αυξήθηκαν κατά 2,6% και έφτασαν τισ 120, την περίοδο Ιανουαρίου-Ιουνίου 2014, σε σύγκριση µε 117 την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2013. Οι εγγραφέσ µοτοσικλετών>50(κ.ε.) αυξήθηκαν κατά 27,5% και έφτασαν τισ 1.072 τουσ πρώτουσ έξι µήνεσ του 2014, σε σύγκριση µε 841 την αντίστοιχη περίοδο του 2013.

αποκρατικοποίηση λιµανιών και µαζί τουσ θα συζητήσουµε και θα ξεκαθαρίσουµε τι ακριβώσ θα πρέπει να αποκρατικοποιηθεί στο εµπορικÞ κοµµάτι του λιµένα Λεµεσού», είπε ο κ. Μιχαηλίδησ. Σε σχέση µε τουσ δεύτερουσ συµβούλουσ, η Αρχή έχει ξεκινήσει µια διαδικασία προεπιλογήσ. «Θα συνεχίσουµε πολύ σύντοµα µε τισ προσφορέσ για την επιλογή των οίκων και µέσα στον Οκτώβριο αναµένουµε να τουσ επιλέξουµε και αυτούσ», συµπλήρωσε. Ενδιαφέρον επέδειξαν ήδη ο ιαπωνικÞσ χρηµατοοικονοµικÞσ οίκοσ Nomura, η Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank και η αµερικανική City Bank. «Οι δεύτεροι σύµβουλοι θα είναι ωσ επί το πλείστον χρηµατοοικονοµικοί σύµβουλοι, οι οποίοι θα παράσχουν συµβουλέσ για τα έγγραφα, τουσ τελικούσ Þρουσ για την επιλογή του διαχειριστή και θα εξεταστούν οι διάφορεσ επι-

λογέσ που θα εισηγηθούν οι πρώτοι σύµβουλοι και ωσ προσ το τι θα περιέχει το έγγραφο για την τελική προσφορά», εξήγησε ο κ. Μιχαηλίδησ. Ùπωσ είπε, η διαδικασία αναµένεται να ολοκληρωθεί στα µέσα του 2015. Με βάση το πρÞγραµµα δράσησ τησ Κυβέρνησησ για τισ αποκρατικοποιήσεισ για το λιµάνι Λεµεσού αναφορικά µε την φÞρτο-εκφÞρτωση εµπορευµατοκιβωτίων /διαµετακοµιστικÞσ σταθµÞσ, κρίνεται, µε βάση τα σηµερινά δεδοµένα, ωσ προσφορÞτερη επιλογή η παραχώρηση απÞ το Κράτοσ άδειασ (“license”) µεγάλησ διάρκειασ σε κατάλληλο διαχειριστή λιµένων (port operator). Ο διαχειριστήσ θα επιλεγεί µετά απÞ διεθνή διαγωνισµÞ µέχρι τισ 31 ∆εκεµβρίου 2015. Παράλληλα, η ΑΛΚ θα διατηρηθεί ωσ δηµÞσιοσ ΟργανισµÞσ, µε κύριο σκοπÞ την άσκηση εποπτικού/ρυθµιστικού ρÞλου, ο οποίοσ θα ενισχυθεί.

ª¤¯ÚÈ Ù¤ÏÔ˜ √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ë ÏËÚˆÌ‹ ÊfiÚÔ˘ ÁÈ· ·Î›ÓËÙ· Εταιρείεσ, οργανισµοί και φυσικά πρÞσωπα που κατά την 1/1/2014 είχαν στο Þνοµα τουσ εγγεγραµµένη ή µισθωµένη ακίνητη περιουσία µε συµβÞλαιο µίσθωσησ κατατιθέµενο στο ΚτηµατολÞγιο στισ ελεύθερεσ περιοχέσ τησ Κύπρου, υπÞκεινται σε φορολογία επί τησ Ακίνητησ αυτήσ Ιδιοκτησίασ, για το έτοσ 2014, σύµφωνα µε το Τµήµα Φορολογίασ του Υπουργείου Οικονοµικών. Η φορολογία βασίζεται στο σύνολο τησ αγοραίασ αξίασ κατά την 1/1/1980 Þλων των ακινήτων που κατέχει ο κάθε ιδιοκτήτησ. Οι αξίεσ αυτέσ αναγράφονται επί του τίτλου ιδιοκτησίασ (κοτσιάνια) µε αναφορά 1/1/1980. Ενδέχεται Þµωσ οι αξίεσ αυτέσ να έχουν αναθεωρηθεί λÞγω τησ εν τω µεταξύ ανέγερσησ/κατασκευήσ επιπρÞσθετων υποστατικών που εκτελέστηκαν µετά την ηµεροµηνία τησ εκτίµησησ τησ 1/1/1980 απÞ το ΚτηµατολÞγιο. Ενδέχεται επίσησ η αξία 1/1/1980 να µην αναγράφεται στουσ τίτλουσ ιδιοκτησίασ ιδιαίτερα σ’ αυτούσ που κατέχουν παλιούσ τίτλουσ. Το Τµήµα Εσωτερικών ΠροσÞδων, Þπωσ αναφέρεται, προγραµµατίζει να αποστείλει τισ σχετικέσ φορολογίεσ εντÞσ του µηνÞσ Αυγούστου. Μαζί µε τη φορολογία Ακίνητησ Ιδιοκτησίασ θα επισυνάπτεται και αναλυτική κατάσταση των ακινήτων κάθε ιδιοκτήτη, Þπωσ παρουσιάζεται στο αρχείο του Τµήµατοσ Κτηµατολογίου και Χωροµετρίασ (ΤΚΧ). Το Τµήµα ενηµερώνει τουσ πολίτεσ Þτι σε περίπτωση που

δε συµπεριλαµβάνονται στην εν λÞγω κατάσταση Þλα τα ακίνητα ή που κατέχουν ακίνητα µε συνολική αγοραία αξία 1/11980 πέραν των 12.500 ευρώ και δεν έχουν παραλάβει φορολογία, ή σε περίπτωση που διαφωνούν Þτι είναι ιδιοκτήτεσ κάποιου απÞ τα ακίνητα αυτά, θα πρέπει να προσέλθουν στα κατά τÞπουσ Επαρχιακά Γραφεία του Τµήµατοσ Φορολογίασ, Κλάδοσ Ακίνητησ Ιδιοκτησίασ για διευθέτηση τησ διαφοράσ είτε συµπληρώνοντασ το Έντυπο Τ.Φ. 303 2014 είτε υποβάλλοντασ ένσταση στο έντυπο Τ.Φ. 15ΦΑΙ 2014. Η οποιαδήποτε δήλωση/ένσταση για τουσ πιο πάνω λÞγουσ θα πρέπει να γίνει µέχρι τισ 30/9/2014. Σηµειώνεται Þτι αν ο φÞροσ που προκύπτει πληρωθεί τουλάχιστον ένα µήνα πριν την τελευταία προθεσµία πληρωµήσ του, δηλαδή πληρωθεί µέχρι τισ 31/10/2014, τÞτε θα παραχωρείται έκπτωση 15% επί του οφειλÞµενου φÞρου. Σε αντίθετη περίπτωση αν η πληρωµή γίνει µετά τισ 30/11/2014, θα υπάρχει πρÞσθετη χρηµατική επιβάρυνση 10% επί του οφειλÞµενου φÞρου, συν τουσ οποιουσδήποτε νενοµισµένουσ τÞκουσ και τα διοικητικά πρÞστιµα που προβλέπονται στη νοµοθεσία”. Σύµφωνα µε την ανακοίνωση, το προσωπικÞ του Κλάδου Φορολογίασ Ακίνητησ Ιδιοκτησίασ στα κατά τÞπουσ Επαρχιακά Γραφεία του Τµήµατοσ Φορολογίασ θα παρέχει κάθε δυνατή βοήθεια και πληροφορία µέσα στα πλαίσια των δυνατοτήτων του.

¶¤ÓÙÂ ¯ÈÏÈ¿‰Â˜ ŒÏÏËÓÂ˜ ÁÈ·ÙÚÔ› ÛÙËÓ ∆Ô˘ÚÎ›· Πέντε χιλιάδεσ γιατρούσ απÞ την Ελλάδα ετοιµάζεται να πάρει στην Τουρκία το Υπουργείο Υγείασ τησ χώρασ, σύµφωνα µε την τουρκική εφηµερίδα Μιλλιέτ, η οποία επικαλείται τον Τούρκο ΥπουργÞ Υγείασ Μουεζίνογλου, ο οποίοσ δηλώνει Þτι µπορεί να έρθουν ανειδίκευτοι γιατροί απÞ την Ελλάδα και να εξειδικευτούν στην Τουρκία. Ο Τούρκοσ ΥπουργÞσ είπε Þτι στην Τουρκία υπάρχει ανάγκη για 20 χιλιάδεσ γιατρούσ τη στιγµή που, στην Ελλάδα, οι γιατροί περιµένουν πολύ για την εξειδίκευση. “Εάν κάνουµε την εξειδίκευσή τουσ στην Τουρκία και τουσ µάθουµε τούρκικα, θα αντιµετωπίσουµε τισ ανάγκεσ µασ για βοηθούσ ιατρούσ. Εάν σήµερα έρθουν σε µασ 10.000 γιατροί δεν θα ενοχληθούµε», δήλωσε ο Τούρκοσ ΥπουργÞσ. Ùπωσ είπε τισ επÞµενεσ µέρεσ θα γίνουν οι απαιτούµενεσ νοµικέσ ρυθµίσεισ και θα θέσουν σε εφαρµογή το σχέδιο

εκπαίδευσησ για την εξειδίκευση σε συντονισµÞ µε το Ανώτατο ΕκπαιδευτικÞ Συµβούλιο. Ο Μουεζίνογλου, ο οποίοσ επισκέφτηκε την Ελλάδα την περασµένη εβδοµάδα, είπε Þτι θα µιλήσει µε το Ανώτατο ΕκπαιδευτικÞ Συµβούλιο καθώσ και το τουρκικÞ Υπουργείο Εξωτερικών. Ο Τούρκοσ ΥπουργÞσ είπε Þτι στην Ελλάδα, η παιδεία στην ιατρική είναι σε υψηλÞ επίπεδο. “Θα πρέπει να στρέψουµε τα βλέµµατα τησ Ελλάδοσ αντί στη Γερµανία, στην Τουρκία. Εδώ υπάρχει υποδοµή που µπορούν να κάνουν άνετα εξειδίκευση. Οι καθηγητέσ στα πανεπιστήµιά µασ, µου ζητούν βοηθούσ ιατρούσ”. “Έχουµε ανάγκη. Σε Þσουσ χρειάζονται δέκα, δίνουµε τρεισ. Επίσησ απÞ την άλλη πλευρά επιθυµούµε να µετατρέψουµε την Τουρκία σε κέντρο υγείασ τησ περιοχήσ», είπε ο Τούρκοσ ΥπουργÞσ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

30 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2014

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3

∂›ıÂÛË Î·ÏÔÈ¿ÛÌ·ÙÔ˜ (Charm Offensive) Î·È Ô ÚfiÏÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ CIPA ∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿ÙÂ˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘ÍË˜

Ο πρωθυπουργÞσ τησ Ιρλανδίασ Þταν κατετάγη η χώρα αυτή ωσ προβληµατική και έτυχε τησ ατυχίασ τησ ΤρÞικασ, σε οµιλία του αµέσωσ µετά είπε Þτι «είναι καιρÞσ να σηκωθούµε απÞ τισ καρέκλεσ µασ (to get off our butt) και να κάνουµε µια επίθεση “καλοπιάσµατοσ” για την προσέλκυση επενδυτών (a charm offensive)». Πιστεύουµε Þτι ο ΚυπριακÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Προσέλκυσησ Επενδύσεων (CIPA) εξυπηρετεί ένα παρÞµοιο στÞχο στην προσέλκυση ξένων επενδυτών και σίγουρα έχει προωθήσει και προωθεί τα µέγιστα µε την δική τησ ακούραστη εργασία και να βρίσκεται πάντοτε εκεί που υπάρχει κάποια ευκαιρία. Ασφαλώσ δεν γνωρίζουµε Þλεσ τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ του CIPA αλλά µια συνάντηση στην οποία προσκληθήκαµε µαζί µε άλλουσ εκτÞσ CIPA για να συµµετέχουµε για να βοηθήσουµε, ήµασταν οι µÞνοι που υπέβαλαν απτέσ γραπτέσ απÞψεισ, ενώ οι υπÞλοιποι «τησ καρέκλασ» τησ συνάντησησ µέχρι σήµερα δεν έκαναν κάτι αξιÞλογο. ΑυτÞ ίσωσ είναι που ίσωσ να εννοούσε και ο ΠρωθυπουργÞσ τησ Ιρλανδίασ. Έχουµε το προσÞν να έχουµε ωσ µέλοσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ το καλύτερο σχέδιο για µÞνιµεσ βίζεσ και για διαβατήρια, παρÞλο που οι Financial Times µασ κατηγÞρησαν για ερασιτεχνισµÞ και κακή διαχείριση, που ξεκινήσαµε απÞ τα 15 εκ. ευρώ για τα διαβατήρια και καταλήξαµε στα 2.5 εκ. ευρώ σε οµαδικέσ επενδύσεισ. Πιστεύουµε Þτι µε τα προβλήµατα που έχουν οι χριστιανοί και άλλοι, τÞσο στην Αίγυπτο, Þσο και στην Συρία και Λιβύη και τώρα το Ιράκ, αλλά ιδιαίτερα µε τισ εξελίξεισ στην Ουκρανία (και ίσωσ στην Ιορδανία) είναι καιρÞσ, ωσ Κύπροσ, να κάνουµε αυτή την «επίθεση καλοπιάσµατοσ» του πρωθυπουργού τησ Ιρλανδίασ, µε διαφηµίσεισ στον ντÞπιο τύπο τησ κάθε χώρασ µε λεπτÞ τρÞπο για να µην θίξουµε την κάθε χώρα, αλλά διαφηµίσεισ τύπου «επισκεφθείτε την Κύπρο µια φιλική χώρα, ασφαλή για εσάσ και την οικογένεια σασ, τοπικά σχολεία και πανεπιστήµια, ιδανικÞσ τÞποσ για να ζήσετε και µε ευνοϊκÞ κλίµα για τισ επιχειρήσεισ σασ» θα µπορεί να είναι µια προσέγγιση. Ασφαλώσ αυτή η φιλική προσέγγιση θα κοστίσει υπÞ την µορφή συνεχούσ διαφήµισησ για µια περίοδο 6 µηνών έστω 200.000 ευρώ, ένα κÞστοσ

το οποίο δεν πιστεύουµε Þτι θα πρέπει να αναληφθεί απÞ αυτήν την Κυβέρνηση µετά µάλιστα που αναβάθµισε οικονοµικά τον CIPA (που ζητά, κατά την άποψη µασ δικαιολογηµένα, περιορισµένη αύξηση του προσωπικού τησ «επίθεσησ» - Þπωσ η Μάλτα που για τον δικÞ τησ ΟργανισµÞ Επενδύσεων έχει διπλάσιο αριθµÞ προσωπικού). Για να ανακτήσει το κÞστοσ αυτÞ ο CIPA και ίσωσ να κερδίσει και «κάτι» Þλοι οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι που ευεργετούνται µέσω τοθ CIPA και για τουσ οποίουσ θα υπάρξει το σχετικÞ ενδιαφέρον για τισ προτάσεισ τουσ, να πληρώνουν στον CIPA ένα είδοσ «προµήθειασ αποτελέσµατοσ» (success fee) έστω 1% επί του ποσού τησ συναλλαγήσ και για να εγγραφούν τα διάφορα έργα του CIPA στουσ καταλÞγουσ τησ να καταθέτει ένα ποσÞ, έστω 2.000- 3.000 ευρώ (ανά έργο µια φορά µÞνο). Οι σχετικοί ενδιαφερÞµενοι που θα συµµετέχουν στο πρÞγραµµα να είναι και εκείνοι στουσ οποίουσ να διοχετεύονται µέσω του CIPA οι ξένοι ενδιαφερÞµενοι. ΤαυτÞχρονα Þµωσ και ο CIPA ωσ «ΚρατικÞσ» οργανισµÞσ θα πρέπει να ελέγχει βασικά στοιχεία των ενδιαφερÞµενων πωλητών, εάν π.χ. δεν βρίσκονται υπÞ διαχείριση, τα επαγγελµατικά τουσ σχέδια (business plan) κλπ, για να µπορεί κάποιοσ ξένοσ να διαπιστώσει Þτι «µια και που προέρχονται απÞ κάποιον ΚρατικÞ οργανισµÞ τουλάχιστον έχει µια βάση ορθÞτητασ». Στο θέµα αυτÞ ίσωσ ο κάθε ενδιαφερÞµενοσ

να ετοιµάζει το δικÞ του business plan και, ίσωσ, αυτÞ να επικυρώνεται απÞ τουσ ελεγκτέσ του, ένα είδοσ cashflow για την διαπίστωση των οικονοµικών αναγκών του έργου και η περίοδοσ ΕΧΙΤ, αναλύοντασ ταυτÞχρονα την απÞδοση του έργου. Επίσησ µια διαβούλευση απÞ τράπεζα για την πιθανÞτητα δανειοδÞτησησ µέρουσ του έργου θα βοηθήσει. Στην προώθηση αυτή να περιλαµβάνονται Þχι µÞνο επενδύσεισ σε ακίνητα, αλλά και άλλου είδουσ (Þπωσ επένδυση απÞ ΑφγανÞ σε κολέγιο), επενδύσεισ σε κοινοπραξίεσ, σχολεία, µετοχέσ, µαρίνεσ, γήπεδα γκολφ, συµµετοχή σε ιδιωτικέσ και ηµικρατικέσ επιχειρήσεισ, κλπ και να περιλαµβάνονται και τα «φιλέτα» του Κράτουσ κλπ. Σε αυτήν την πρωτÞγνωρη κατ’ εµάσ οικονοµική κατάσταση, προσπαθούµε να βοηθήσουµε την οικονοµία του Κράτουσ και στην προώθηση του CIPA, η οποία είναι, ουσιαστικά, και η µÞνη διέξοδοσ στην προσέλκυση ξένων επενδυτών. Σασ ενθαρρύνουµε λοιπÞν κύριοι του CIPA, Þπωσ αυτέσ οι ιδέεσ και ασφαλώσ µε άλλεσ, θα βοηθήσουν αυτÞν τον αξιÞλογο ΟργανισµÞ του οποίου το εγχείρηµα είναι πετυχηµένο και του οποίου η επιτυχία προέρχεται τÞσο απÞ το προσωπικÞ τησ CIPA Þσο και απÞ το Συµβούλιο και ΠρÞεδρο τησ (ενώ η εµπλοκή του Προέδρου Αναστασιάδη είναι πολύ σηµαντική και µπράβο του). Συγχαρητήρια σε Þλουσ.

∆Ô ÌÂÁ¿ÏÔ ÛÙÔ›¯ËÌ· ÙË˜ ‚ÂÏÙ›ˆÛË˜ ÙÔ˘ ÂÈ¯ÂÈÚËÌ·ÙÈÎÔ‡ ÂÚÈ‚¿ÏÏÔÓÙÔ˜ fi‰ ‰Ô˘ÏÔ˜ ÃÚÈÛÙfi ∞ÁÎ·ÛÙÈÓÈÒÙË˜ ¶ÚfiÂ‰ÚÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ ∫˘ÚÈ·ÎÔ‡ √ÚÁ·ÓÈÛÌÔ‡ ¶ÚÔÛ¤ÏÎ˘ÛË˜ ∂ÂÓ‰‡ÛÂˆÓ (CIPA)

Οι πρÞσφατεσ θετικέσ αξιολογήσεισ που έλαβε η κυπριακή οικονοµία απÞ την ΤρÞικα και τουσ διεθνείσ οίκουσ αξιολÞγησησ, επιβεβαιώνουν Þτι η οικονοµία µασ εισήλθε πολύ γρήγορα σε µία πορεία αναστροφήσ των αρνητικών δεδοµένων, διÞρθωσησ των στρεβλώσεων και επανάκτησησ τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητάσ τησ. ΠαρÞλο που έχουµε ακÞµη αρκετÞ δρÞµο να διανύσουµε µέχρι να φθάσουµε στα επιδιωκÞµενα επίπεδα, τα µέτρα που λαµβάνονται δηµιουργούν προοπτικέσ ανάπτυξησ και ενισχύουν τισ ενδείξεισ Þτι είµαστε στον σωστÞ δρÞµο. Αυτή η προσπάθεια επιβάλλεται να έχει διάρκεια, καθώσ αυτÞσ είναι ο µÞνοσ τρÞποσ µία οικονοµία να ενισχύσει την ανταγωνιστικÞτητά τησ. Το µεγαλύτερο βάροσ τησ προσπάθειασ των τελευταίων µηνών δικαιολογηµένα έπεσε στην τακτοποίηση πολλών λογαριασµών µασ µε το παρελθÞν. ΩστÞσο, φαίνεται, έφθασε η ώρα για να προχωρήσουµε στο επÞµενο βήµα: Την ανάπτυξη. Και η προσέλκυση ξένων επενδύσεων δεν αποτελεί απλώσ έναν βασικÞ πυλώνα στην προσπάθεια για επανεκκίνηση τησ αναπτυξιακήσ δραστηριÞτητασ, αλλά ίσωσ και τη µÞνη ρεαλιστική διέξοδο για να πετύχουµε τον στÞχο αυτÞ. Για να προσελκύσουµε, Þµωσ, ξένεσ επενδύσεισ απαιτείται σταθερÞτητα στο τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα και ένα φιλικÞ επιχειρηµατικÞ περιβάλλον, που να λειτουργεί στο πλαίσιο τησ διαφάνειασ και να είναι πραγµατικά φιλÞξενο προσ τουσ

∏ ÚÔÛ¤ÏÎ˘ÛË Í¤ÓˆÓ ÂÂÓ‰‡ÛÂˆÓ ··ÈÙÂ› ÛÙ·ıÂÚfiÙËÙ· ÛÙÔ ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎfi Û‡ÛÙËÌ· Î·È ÊÈÏÈÎfi ÂÈ¯ÂÈÚËÌ·ÙÈÎfi ÂÚÈ‚¿ÏÏÔÓ υποψήφιουσ ξένουσ επενδυτέσ. Χωρίσ γραφειοκρατικέσ δυσλειτουργίεσ και επαχθείσ Þρουσ, µε ένα µοντέρνο και ευέλικτο ρυθµιστικÞ πλαίσιο που θα ανταποκρίνεται στισ ανάγκεσ των επενδυτών. Γιατί κανένασ επενδυτήσ δεν πρÞκειται να διακινδυνεύσει την επένδυσή του σε µια χώρα Þπου οι διαδικασίεσ προσκρούουν σε ένα πολύπλοκο και αδιαφανέσ πλαίσιο λειτουργίασ. Η γραπτή ανακοίνωση που εξέδωσε ο Ùµιλοσ Buena Vista µε αφορµή την επένδυση που προγραµµατίζει στην Κύπρο, αποδεικνύει του λÞγου το αληθέσ. Συγκεκριµένα,

αναφέρει: «ΑπÞ το 2005, Þταν αποφασίστηκε πωσ ένα κέντρο υγείασ και τουρισµού θα ήταν βιώσιµο, κεφάλαια απÞ ΗΠΑ και Λονδίνο στήριξαν το Fortune Health Resort, µε στÞχο να καταστεί το πιο αναβαθµισµένο κέντρο υγείασ, ευεξίασ και αθλητισµού στην Ευρώπη. Η υλοποίηση του έργου καθυστέρησε για χρÞνια λÞγω τησ γραφειοκρατίασ. Μέτρα που εσχάτωσ έλαβε η κυπριακή κυβέρνηση αναχαίτισαν κάθε εµπÞδιο για την επένδυση και πλέον προχωρούµε µε µια επένδυση τησ τάξησ των 300 εκ. δολαρίων». Η αναγνώριση των προσπαθειών που καταβάλλονται εκ µέρουσ τησ κυβέρνησησ αναµφίβολα αποτελεί θετική εξέλιξη, ωστÞσο, οι αναφορέσ στη γραφειοκρατία πρέπει να µασ προβληµατίσουν και να ληφθούν πολύ σοβαρά υπÞψη. Η αλλαγή του αναπτυξιακού µασ µοντέλου, η βελτίωση του επιχειρηµατικού και επενδυτικού περιβάλλοντοσ και η αντιµετώπιση τησ γραφειοκρατίασ αποτελούν το µεγάλο στοίχηµα που θα πρέπει να κερδίσουµε τουσ επÞµενουσ µήνεσ. ΧρειαζÞµαστε ένα αναπτυξιακÞ µοντέλο απαλλαγµένο απÞ τισ στρεβλώσεισ και τισ ανισορροπίεσ τουσ παρελθÞντοσ το οποίο θα εδράζεται σε πολύ πιο στερεά θεµέλια και θα δηµιουργεί τισ προϋποθέσεισ για βιώσιµη ανάπτυξη. Θα πετύχουµε εάν παραµείνουµε σοβαροί και προσηλωµένοι στην προσπάθεια υλοποίησησ του προγράµµατοσ οικονοµικήσ µεταρρύθµισησ και εκσυγχρονισµού που τÞσο µεγάλη ανάγκη έχει η χώρα µασ. Το υπÞβαθρο για επιτυχή έκβαση υπάρχει. Εκείνο που χρειάζεται είναι διάθεση και αποφασιστικÞτητα για την αλλαγή. Και για να έρθει η αλλαγή χρειάζεται η συµβολή Þλων Þσων εµπλέκονται, Þχι µÞνο στην κρατική µηχανή αλλά και στον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα. Με ανοικτÞ πνεύµα και υψηλÞ αίσθηµα ευθύνησ και ηθικήσ. Παραµερίζοντασ τισ Þποιεσ σκοπιµÞτητεσ και προσωπικέσ στοχεύσεισ, υιοθετώντασ τισ αρχέσ τησ εταιρικήσ διακυβέρνησησ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

30 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2014

4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

OÈ ˘‰ÚÔÁÔÓ¿ÓıÚ·ÎÂ˜ Î·È ÔÈ ÂÏ›‰Â˜ ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË˜ ¶¿ÌÔ˜ ∫·ÌÌ¿˜ ∞Ó·ÏËÚˆÙ‹˜ °. ¢ÈÂ˘ı˘ÓÙ‹˜ CYS, Î·È ¢ÈÂ˘ı˘ÓÙ‹˜ ÙÔ˘ ∫˘ÚÈ·ÎÔ‡ √ÚÁ·ÓÈÛÌÔ‡ ∆˘ÔÔ›ËÛË˜

Η αναδυÞµενη βιοµηχανία υδρογονανθράκων στην Κύπρο κατά γενική οµολογία αποτελεί σήµερα ίσωσ την µεγαλύτερη ελπίδα ανάπτυξησ στη δοκιµαζÞµενη οικονοµία του τÞπου µασ, µεσοπρÞθεσµα και µακροπρÞθεσµα. Οι προκλήσεισ και οι ευκαιρίεσ που παρουσιάζονται αγγίζουν αρκετούσ αναπτυξιακούσ τοµείσ τησ οικονοµίασ προσφέροντασ τισ ανάλογεσ ευκαιρίεσ αξιοποίησησ, απÞ τη µια για επίλυση χρÞνιων προβληµάτων στο εσωτερικÞ, κι απÞ την άλλη για ισχυρή παρουσία στον ενεργειακÞ χάρτη τησ περιοχήσ τησ Ανατολικήσ Μεσογείου και ευρύτερα. Η αναµενÞµενη έλευση φυσικού αερίου στη χώρα δύναται ν’ αξιοποιηθεί ποικιλοτρÞπωσ Þπωσ π.χ. για την παραγωγή φθηνÞτερησ και περιβαλλοντικά φιλικÞτερησ ενέργειασ, για την αεριοκίνηση, για βιοµηχανική χρήση στην παραγωγή, για διακλάδωση στη χώρα και οικιακή χρήση, για δηµÞσια χρήση στουσ δήµουσ και κοινÞτητεσ κλπ. ΕκτÞσ απÞ τισ προκλήσεισ και ευκαιρίεσ, εντοπίζονται βεβαίωσ αδυναµίεσ και απειλέσ για τη χώρα και τουσ κατοίκουσ τησ, µε πιο σηµαντικέσ απ’ αυτέσ πιθανέσ περιβαλλοντικέσ επιπτώσεισ και τα θέµατα ασφάλειασ και υγείασ για τουσ εργαζÞµενουσ και για τουσ χρήστεσ των προϊÞντων και σχετικών υπηρεσιών. Για να καταστεί δυνατή η οµαλή αξιοποίηση και – αναλÞγωσ - αντιµετώπιση Þλων των πιο πάνω µέσα απÞ ένα εθνικÞ στρατηγικÞ σχεδιασµÞ, χρειάζεται απαραίτητα η συµβολή των εθνικών υποδοµών ποιÞτητασ οι οποίεσ θα πρέπει πάντοτε να είναι έτοιµεσ να προσφέρουν τισ υπηρεσίεσ τουσ Þπου τουσ ζητηθεί κατασταλτικά αλλά προτιµÞτερο προληπτικά. Οι υποδοµέσ ποιÞτητασ κάθε χώρασ, κατέχοντασ την απαραίτητη τεχνική επάρκεια, την ανεξαρτησία και τη δικαιοδοσία να δρουν προστατεύοντασ τα καλώσ νοούµενα συµφέροντα τησ χώρασ, τησ κοινωνίασ, των πολιτών και τησ οικονοµίασ γενικÞτερα, πρέπει πάντοτε να υποστηρίζονται απÞ την πολιτεία η οποία και πρέπει να φροντίζει να τουσ παρέχει τα απαραίτητα εφÞδια και επαρκείσ πÞρουσ για να είναι αποτελεσµατικέσ και παραγωγικέσ στο βαρυσήµαντο έργο που έχουν να επιτελέσουν. Η εκπαίδευση και η κατάρτιση αποτελεί και στην περίπτωση ανάπτυξησ τησ Þλησ βιοµηχανίασ υδρογονανθράκων, τον

ακρογωνιαίο λίθο για την επιτυχή και ορθολογική λειτουργία του τοµέα. Στο πλαίσιο αυτÞ ιδρύθηκε και λειτουργεί στο αρµÞδιο Υπουργείο Ενέργειασ, Ταµείο για την εκπαίδευση και κατάρτιση µε χρηµατοδÞτηση απÞ κονδύλια των εταιρειών που εξασφάλισαν τα δικαιώµατα εκµετάλλευσησ των υδρογονανθράκων στην Κυπριακή ΑΟΖ. Άλλο ένα βήµα προσ την ορθή κατεύθυνση το οποίο δεν µπορεί παρά να χαιρετισθεί, αποτελεί και η πολύ πρÞσφατα εξαγγελθείσα Στρατηγική για την Εκπαίδευση και την Κατάρτιση στον Τοµέα των Υδρογονανθράκων η οποία θα χρηµατοδοτείται απÞ εθνικά και Ευρωπαϊκά κονδύλια αλλά και απÞ το προαναφερÞµενο Ταµείο. Λαµβάνοντασ υπÞψη τα παραδείγµατα άλλων κρατών, τÞσο στην Ευρώπη Þσο και στον υπÞλοιπο κÞσµο, η Τυποποίηση αποτελεί ένα απÞ τα ισχυρÞτερα εργαλεία για τισ νοµοθετικέσ/ρυθµιστικέσ αρχέσ, τη βιοµηχανία αλλά και την κοινωνία στο σύνολο τησ, για τη διασφάλιση τησ ποιÞτητασ, τησ ασφάλειασ και τησ περιβαλλοντικήσ προστασίασ στον τοµέα των υδρογονανθράκων. Ο ΚυπριακÞσ ΟργανισµÞσ Τυποποίησησ (CYS) αποτελεί τον ΕθνικÞ φορέα Τυποποίησησ, πλήρεσ και ισÞτιµο µέλοσ των Ευρωπαϊκών Οργανισµών Τυποποίησησ CEN, CENELEC και ETSI ωσ επίσησ και των διεθνών Οργανισµών Τυποποίησησ ISO και IEC. Στο πλαίσιο τησ αποστολήσ του Οργανισµού και σε συνάρτηση µε την υλοποίηση ενÞσ εθνικού στρατηγικού σχεδιασµού στον τοµέα των υδρογονανθράκων, ο CYS έχει να επιτελέσει σηµαντικÞ έργο στην δηµιουργία εθνικήσ υποδοµήσ ποιÞτητασ (τυποποίηση και πιστοποίηση), η οποία αναµένεται να συµβάλει ενεργά στην ολοκληρωµένη ανάπτυξη τησ αναδυÞµενησ βιοµηχανίασ των υδρογονανθράκων. Οι στρατηγικέσ συνεργασίεσ του CYS δίνουν τη δυνατÞτητα για πρÞσβαση στην τεράστια βιβλιογραφία διεθνών, Ευρωπαϊκών και άλλων εθνικών προτύπων ενώ παράλληλα, στηριζÞµενοι στο υφιστάµενο ΕθνικÞ Σύστηµα Τυποποίησησ, υπάρχει η δυνατÞτητα κάλυψησ τυποποιητικών αναγκών µε την εκπÞνηση αµιγώσ εθνικών προτύπων, που µπορεί να προκύψουν απÞ τοπικέσ ιδιαιτερÞτητεσ τησ χώρασ µασ, Þπωσ συµβαίνει και σε άλλεσ χώρεσ π.χ. στο Ισραήλ, στη Νορβηγία, στην Ολλανδία κλπ. Τα πρÞτυπα πέραν απÞ πολύτιµο συµπληρωµατικÞ εργαλείο στα χέρια των νοµοθετών και του αρµÞδιου ρυθµιστή, αποτελούν και µέσο διασφάλισησ τησ ποιÞτητασ των προϊÞντων και υπηρεσιών τησ βιοµηχανίασ υδρογονανθράκων, µέσω τησ παροχήσ υπηρεσιών πιστοποίησησ απÞ κατάλληλα διαπιστευµένουσ φορείσ. Για να επιτευχθεί λοιπÞν το αναγκαίο επίπεδο επάρκειασ

∫·Ù¿ÚÙÈÛË, ÚfiÙ˘· Î·È ÔÈfiÙËÙ· ÛÂ ·˘ÙfiÓ ÙÔÓ ·Ó·‰˘fiÌÂÓÔ ÙÔÌ¤· ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ γνώσεων που θα προσφέρει αξιÞπιστη παροχή υπηρεσιών τυποποίησησ και πιστοποίησησ σε εθνικÞ επίπεδο, έχει εκπονηθεί ολοκληρωµένο σχέδιο εκπαίδευσησ και κατάρτισησ των στελεχών τησ διεύθυνσησ και του προσωπικού του CYS στον τοµέα αυτÞ. Η υλοποίηση του υπÞ αναφορά σχεδίου θα αποβεί προσ Þφελοσ τησ ευρύτερησ βιοµηχανίασ υδρογονανθράκων στη χώρα και θα υποστηρίζει διαχρονικά µε επάρκεια τησ ανάγκεσ ποιÞτητασ του τοµέα. Η ποιÞτητα στην Κύπρο έχει δεχτεί και δέχεται πολλά κτυπήµατα τα τελευταία χρÞνια, γεγονÞσ που αποδεικνύεται µέσα απÞ την ανάλυση των γεγονÞτων στισ αλλεπάλληλεσ οικονοµικέσ, φυσικέσ και ηθικέσ καταστροφέσ που µασ έχουν πλήξει. Ασ εµπλουτίσουµε λοιπÞν τισ γνώσεισ µασ κατάλληλα και προληπτικά γύρω απÞ τη µεγαλύτερη ελπίδα ανάπτυξησ που µασ προσφέρεται και ασ αποδείξουµε Þτι µαθαίνουµε απÞ τα παθήµατα του παρελθÞντοσ. Το χρωστούµε στισ µελλοντικέσ γενιέσ, το χρωστούµε σε κάποιουσ που έφυγαν πρÞωρα ελλείψει τησ γνώσησ, τησ πρÞληψησ, τησ εφαρµογήσ αποτελεσµατικήσ ποιÞτητασ παντού.

TÔ ÙÚ·Â˙ÈÎfi Û‡ÛÙËÌ· “ÎÏÂÈ‰›” ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ·Ó¿Î·Ì„Ë Το 2014 εκτιµάται Þτι το ΑΕΠ τησ Κύπρου θα υποχωρήσει περαιτέρω, αν και µε επιβραδυνÞµενο ρυθµÞ (-4,2%), ενώ το 2015 πιθανÞν να σηµατοδοτήσει την έξοδο απÞ την ύφεση, µε την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή να προβλέπει άνοδο του ΑΕΠ κατά 0,4% σε µελέτη τησ Infobank Hellastat ΑΕ για την οικονοµία τησ Κύπρου. Στην ανάλυση αναφέρεται Þτι η ρευστÞτητα στην αγορά είναι σηµαντικά περιορισµένη, µε τισ τράπεζεσ να εφαρµÞζουν προγράµµατα αποµÞχλευσησ, ώστε να µειώσουν τα χαρτοφυλάκια χορηγήσεων. Εποµένωσ, σύµφωνα µε την ανάλυση, η παροχή νέων δανειοδοτήσεων είναι πλέον ιδιαίτερα δυσχερήσ, απÞ τη στιγ-

µή µάλιστα που έχει σηµειωθεί σηµαντική εκροή καταθέσεων. ΣυγχρÞνωσ, το ποσοστÞ ανεργίασ το 2013 αυξήθηκε στο 16%, ενώ η συνεχιζÞµενη ύφεση αναµένεται να προκαλέσει περαιτέρω άνοδο στο 19% εφέτοσ. “Κλειδί” για την ανάκαµψη τησ οικονοµίασ, αναφέρεται στην ανάλυση, θα αποτελέσουν αναµφισβήτητα η εκ νέου διαµÞρφωση ενÞσ εύρωστου τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ, καθώσ και η σταδιακή “ελάφρυνση” του ιδιωτικού τοµέα απÞ τη δανειοδÞτηση των προηγούµενων ετών. Ùµωσ η περαιτέρω συρρίκνωση τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ το 2014 και η συνεχιζÞµενη υποτονικÞτητα στουσ κλάδουσ των κατασκευών και real estate µεταφράζεται σε αδυναµία µεγάλου µέρουσ των

δανειοληπτών για έγκαιρη αποπληρωµή των δανειακών τουσ υποχρεώσεων, γεγονÞσ που θα επηρεάσει αρνητικά την ποιÞτητα του χαρτοφυλακίου των τραπεζών. Το υψηλÞ ποσοστÞ των µη εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων αποτελεί ένα απÞ τα πιο φλέγοντα θέµατα, καθώσ παρεµποδίζει την προσπάθεια εξυγίανσησ του τραπεζικού κλάδου και οδηγεί στη διενέργεια υψηλών προβλέψεων. Εξάλλου, απαίτηση τησ TρÞικασ κατά την πέµπτη αξιολÞγηση του δηµοσιονοµικού προγράµµατοσ αποτελεί η µείωση των προβληµατικών δανείων, η απλοποίηση των διαδικασιών για εκποιήσεισ περιουσιακών στοιχείων και η αυστηροποίηση του νÞµου περί αφερεγγυÞτητασ των δανειοληπτών, σύµφωνα µε τη µελέτη.

∏ WTS ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ÊÈÏÔÍ¤ÓËÛÂ Û˘Ó¤‰ÚÈÔ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ¶ÚÔÛˆÈÎ‹ ºÔÚÔÏÔÁ›· Tο Ετήσιο Συνέδριο Κεντρικήσ & Ανατολικήσ Ευρώπησ (WTS Annual CEE Meeting), µε παρουσία εκπροσώπων απÞ 12 χώρεσ, φιλοξένησε η WTS Κύπρου, µέλοσ του διεθνούσ δικτύου φορολογικών και επιχειρηµατικών συµβούλων WTS, µε παρουσία σε 100 χώρεσ. Του συνεδρίου, που είχε σαν θέµα την Προσωπική Φορολογία Μετακινούµενου Προσωπικού (Taxation of Global Employee Mobility), προηγήθηκε διάσκεψη τύπου στο ξενοδοχείο Hilton, την οποία χαιρέτισαν οι κκ Κώστασ Γεωργαλλήσ, πρÞεδροσ του ΕΒΕ Λευκωσίασ, Κυριάκοσ Ιορδάνουσ, ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ του Συνδέσµου Εγκεκριµένων Λογιστών Κύπρου, Karsten Gnuschke µέλοσ του παγκÞσµιου ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου του WTS Alliance και ΝικÞλασ Κυπραίοσ, ∆ιευθύνων Σύµβουλοσ WTS Κύπρου. Κατά τη διάρκεια του συνεδρίου, εξετάστηκαν απÞ τουσ συµµετέχοντεσ Þλοι οι

παράµετροι (φορολογικοί και άλλοι) που αφορούν την µετακίνηση προσωπικού µεταξύ χωρών στισ οποίεσ δραστηριοποιείται ο εργοδÞτησ. Το συνέδριο θεωρήθηκε χρήσιµο, αφού η µετακίνηση προσωπικού απÞ πολυεθνικέσ εταιρείεσ, είναι στενά συνδεδεµένη µε την ανάπτυξη των διεθνών τουσ εργασιών. Η διενέργεια τέτοιων συνεδρίων µε συµµετοχέσ απÞ το εξωτερικÞ, αναδεικνύει τη σηµασία τησ Κύπρου σαν διεθνέσ κέντρο υπηρεσιών και προωθεί το χρηµατοοικονοµικÞ και τουριστικÞ µασ προϊÞν. Η WTS Κύπρου προσφέρει Þλο το εύροσ των λογιστικών, φορολογικών, ελεγκτικών και συµβουλευτικών υπηρεσιών, που χρειάζεται µια σύγχρονη επιχείρηση. Η εταιρεία εδρεύει στην Λευκωσία απÞ το 2010, στην οδÞ Αµφίπολησ 2 και Λεωφ. Αθαλάσσασ και εργοδοτεί 16 άτοµα. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στο www.wtscyprus.com

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

30 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2014

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5

¶ÚfiÎÏËÛË ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂˘ÚÒË Ë ‰ËÌÔÁÚ·ÊÈÎ‹ Á‹Ú·ÓÛË ª·ÚÈÏ¤Ó· ¡ÈÎÔÏ¿Ô˘ §ÂÈÙÔ˘ÚÁfi˜ ¢ÈÔ›ÎËÛË˜ Î·È ¢ÈÂıÓÒÓ ™¯¤ÛÂˆÓ ÛÙÔÓ ∫˘ÚÈ·Îfi √ÚÁ·ÓÈÛÌfi ∆˘ÔÔ›ËÛË˜ (CYS)

“Πώσ η Τυποποίηση δύναται να συµβάλει στην ανάπτυξη τησ οικονοµίασ τρίτησ ηλικίασ”, ήταν το κυρίωσ θέµα τησ 3ησ Πανευρωπαϊκήσ Σύναξησ των µελών των Ευρωπαϊκών Οργανισµών Τυποποίησησ CEN & CENELEC, που πραγµατοποιήθηκε στην Κωνσταντινούπολη στισ 11 Ιουνίου, 2014. Μέσα απÞ τα πορίσµατα τησ Σύναξησ, οι εν λÞγω Ευρωπαϊκοί Οργανισµοί Τυποποίησησ αποφάσισαν Þπωσ δοθεί προτεραιÞτητα στην εκπÞνηση προτύπων τα οποία θα καλύπτουν τισ ανάγκεσ του ηλικιωµένου πληθυσµού και τα οποία θα συµβάλουν µε τον τρÞπο αυτÞ στην ευηµερία των ατÞµων που συνθέτουν την “οικονοµία τρίτησ ηλικίασ”. Στη συνάντηση παρευρέθηκαν πέραν των 200 εκπροσώπων απÞ εθνικούσ, Ευρωπαϊκούσ και ∆ιεθνείσ Οργανισµούσ Τυποποίησησ καθώσ επίσησ και εκπρÞσωποι απÞ τη φιλοξενούσα χώρα και την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή. Η δηµογραφική γήρανση του πληθυσµού στην Ευρώπη αποτελεί σήµερα ένα δεδοµένο µε σοβαρÞτατεσ κοινωνικέσ, οικονοµικέσ και άλλεσ προεκτάσεισ. Σήµερα, ο µέσοσ άνθρωποσ ζει πολύ περισσÞτερο απÞ παλιά, µε συνέπεια συνολικά να βιώνει ένασ σηµαντικά µεγαλύτεροσ αριθµÞσ ηλικιωµένων ατÞµων απ’ Þτι στο παρελθÞν. Το προσδοκώµενο µέσο Þριο ζωήσ έχει αυξηθεί σηµαντικά και αυτÞ οφείλεται στην ανάπτυξη τησ ιατρικήσ επιστήµησ και τησ υγειονοµικήσ περίθαλψησ που προσφέρουν οι σύγχρονεσ κοινωνίεσ. Αποτέλεσµα αυτών των εξελίξεων είναι Þτι ο αριθµÞσ των ατÞµων άνω των 65 χρÞνων δύναται να διπλασιαστεί

είναι τεράστια εάν υπάρξει πραγµατικÞ ενδιαφέρον για αυτήν την κατηγορία πολιτών. Οι Ευρωπαϊκοί Οργανισµοί Τυποποίησησ, CEN,CENELEC,ETSI, έχουν δηµιουργήσει πληθώρα δραστηριοτήτων σε συνεργασία και µε άλλουσ φορείσ. Μερικά απÞ τα πιο επιτυχή προγράµµατα είναι: Design for All, Accessibility in the Built Environment, Smart and Sustainable Cities and Communities. Επίσησ, οι CEN&CENELEC σε συνεργασία µε τον ETSI έχουν εκπονήσει πρÞτυπα που αφορούν την προσβασιµÞτητα των συµπολιτών µασ τησ τρίτησ ηλικίασ, σε προϊÞντα και υπηρεσίεσ του τοµέα τησ τεχνολογίασ πληροφοριών. Καταλήγοντασ, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ CEN, Friedrich √ ÚfiÏÔ˜ ÙˆÓ Â˘Úˆ·˚ÎÒÓ ÔÚÁ·ÓÈÛÌÒÓ Ù˘ÔÔ›ËÛË˜ Smaxwil, επεσήµανε Þτι η δηµογραφική γήρανση ÛÙËÓ ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË ÙË˜ “ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌ›·˜ ÙÚ›ÙË˜ ËÏÈÎ›·˜” που παρουσιάζεται στην Ευρώπη, αποτελεί µια µεγάλη πρÞκληση για τισ κοινωνίεσ και το δηµÞσιο τοµέα µέσα στα επÞµενα 50 χρÞνια. Το έτοσ 2025, αναµένεται Þτι αλλά απÞ την άλλη αποτελεί µια µεγάλη ευκαιρία για τισ οι γηραιÞτεροι πολίτεσ, δηλαδή άνω των 65 χρÞνων, θα εταιρείεσ να αποδείξουν Þτι µπορούν να σταθούν δίπλα αντιπροσωπεύουν το 20% του συνÞλου του πληθυσµού στισ στουσ ηλικιωµένουσ και να ικανοποιήσουν τισ αυξηµένεσ πλείστεσ Ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ. ανάγκεσ τουσ. Η έννοια τησ οικονοµίασ τρίτησ ηλικίασ αναφέρεται σε Την ίδια στιγµή Þµωσ, αποτελεί πρÞκληση και για τουσ µια σειρά απÞ δράσεισ και δραστηριÞτητεσ οι οποίεσ ικανο- Ευρωπαϊκούσ Οργανισµούσ Τυποποίησησ, να αποδείξουν ποιούν τισ ανάγκεσ του ηλικιωµένου πληθυσµού. Ανάµεσα Þτι τα Ευρωπαϊκά πρÞτυπα είναι ένα χρήσιµο εργαλείο για σε άλλα, συµπεριλαµβάνονται θέµατα στέγασησ και περι- τισ κοινωνίεσ που επιθυµούν να δηµιουργήσουν ένα κράτοσ βάλλοντοσ, υγείασ και ασφάλειασ, µετακίνησησ, δραστηριÞ- δικαίου για Þλουσ τουσ πολίτεσ. τητεσ αναψυχήσ καθώσ επίσησ και ποικίλεσ υπηρεσίεσ Þπωσ Τα πορίσµατα τησ συνάντησησ κρίθηκαν ωσ πολύ υποη κατ’ οίκον φροντίδα. βοηθητικά για το περαιτέρω τυποποιητικÞ έργο των CEN & Η αντιπρÞεδροσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ, Neelie CENELEC και για τισ συνέργιεσ τισ οποίεσ πρέπει να ενθαρKroes τÞνισε Þτι ο τοµέασ τησ Υγειονοµικήσ Περίθαλψησ ρυνθούν ανάµεσα στισ επιχειρήσεισ, τισ δηµÞσιεσ αρχέσ, συνθέτει µια πολύ σηµαντική περιοχή Þπου τα πρÞτυπα στουσ παροχείσ υπηρεσιών και εκπροσώπουσ των καταναµπορούν να συµβάλουν στην αναβάθµιση τησ ποιÞτητασ λωτών. Με την ενίσχυση τησ συνεργασίασ µεταξύ Þλων των ζωήσ των ηλικιωµένων. Υπογράµµισε επίσησ Þτι το ασήµι, εµπλεκÞµενων φορέων, οι Ευρωπαϊκοί Οργανισµοί (Þπωσ ονοµάζουν την τρίτη ηλικία)είναι ο νέοσ χρυσÞσ, Τυποποίησησ θα βρίσκονται στην ευνοϊκή θέση να εκποεννοώντασ φυσικά Þτι τα οικονοµικά οφέλη για την Ευρώπη νούν πρÞτυπα φιλικά προσ τουσ ηλικιωµένουσ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

30 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2014

6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com

∆· NPLs ··ÈÙÔ‡Ó Û˘ÏÏÔÁÈÎ‹ Ï‡ÛË ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Οι λύσεισ που προτείνονται και εξετάζονται για την αντιµετώπιση των µη εξυπηρετουµένων δανείων (NPLs) Þπωσ πλειστηριασµοί ακινήτων, προσωρινή εξαίρεση πρώτησ κατοικίασ κτλ. δεν θα λύσουν το πρÞβληµα αλλά θα προκαλέσουν χάοσ. Η τραπεζική βÞµβα που ονοµάζεται «µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια» δεν επιλύεται µε πλειστηριασµούσ Þταν η αγορά ακινήτων έχει παγώσει και είναι ένα µÞλισ βήµα απÞ την πλήρη κατάρρευση. Πωσ θα πωληθούν ακίνητα Þταν κανείσ δεν αγοράζει και η κτηµαταγορά νοσεί; Η µικρή Κύπροσ µε µια τÞσο µικρή αγορά είναι πολύ ευαίσθητη και σε καµία περίπτωση δεν είναι ικανή να αντέξει µια µαζική ρευστοποίηση ακινήτων και ειδικά σε µια περίοδο που το αγοραστικÞ ενδιαφέρον είναι απÞ µηδενικÞ µέχρι ανύπαρκτο. Οι τησ ΤρÞικασ Þπωσ µασ συνήθισαν εδώ και 5 χρÞνια που εµφανίστηκαν δεν βλέπουν παρά µÞνο αριθµούσ και σε καµία περίπτωση δεν µπορούν να συγκρίνουν την κυπριακή αγορά ακινήτων µε άλλεσ ώριµεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ και µεγάλεσ αγορέσ Þπωσ αυτέσ τισ Ισπανίασ, τησ Ιταλίασ ή ακÞµα και τησ Βρετανίασ και τησ Αµερικήσ. Και στο τέλοσ τησ ηµέρασ οι τησ ΤρÞικασ ίσωσ να είναι και οι τελευταίοι οι οποίοι µπορεί να θεωρηθούν ωσ ειδικοί και αξιÞπιστοι για το συγκεκριµένο θέµα. Ασ µην λησµονούµε το «έγκληµα» που διαπράχθηκε στην Ελλάδα µε τισ ευλογίεσ

και προτροπέσ τησ ΤρÞικασ. Και η οποία ΤρÞικα πρÞσφατα µε επίσηµεσ τοποθετήσεισ τησ ανάφερε πωσ είναν λανθασµένεσ εκτιµήσεισ στην Ελλάδα, υπερεκτιµήθηκε η πορεία ανάκαµψησ τησ χώρασ και το κυριÞτερο που παραδέχθηκαν είναι πωσ Þλεσ οι χώρεσ δεν είναι οι ίδιεσ και έπρεπε να ληφθεί πολύ σοβαρά υπÞψη η ιδιοσυγκρασία, το µέγεθοσ και ο χαρακτήρασ τησ χώρασ αυτήσ. Βέβαια Þλα αυτά λεχθήκαν κατÞπιν εορτήσ και αφού η Ελλάδα έχει είδη περιπέσει σε µη ανατρέψιµη κατάσταση. Είναι πολύ σηµαντικÞ στην δική µασ περίπτωση να διδαχθούµε τι έγινε στην Ελλάδα και να µην επιτρέψουµε το «έγκληµα» αυτÞ να επαναληφθεί. Η λύση για τα NPLs στην χώρα µασ πρέπει να είναι συλλογική και να λάβει σοβαρά υπÞψη το µέγεθοσ τησ χώρασ και σε καµία περίπτωση να µην γίνει µαζική ρευστοποίηση ακινήτων επειδή θα προκληθεί και πάλι χάοσ, πολύ χειρÞτερο απÞ αυτÞ που έγινε Þταν µασ επιβλήθηκε το «εγκληµατικÞ» κούρεµα καταθέσεων. Και συλλογική λύση µπορεί να είναι εφικτή µÞνο µέσω τησ σύστασησ τησ ειδικήσ εταιρία τύπου Ιρλανδίασ (National Asset Management Agency). Η ΝΑΜΑ ή κάτι παρεµφερέσ, Þπωσ αναφέραµε και σε περυσινÞ µασ άρθρο, είναι ίσωσ η µÞνη εφικτή και αποτελεσµατική λύση για το τεράστιο πρÞβληµα των NPLs στην Κύπρο. Ùπωσ έχουµε ξανά αναλύσει στην Ιρλανδία είχε συσταθεί NAMA Þπου οι ιρλανδικέσ τράπεζεσ τοποθέτησαν 72 δισ ευρώ στεγαστικά δάνεια πριν περίπου 4 χρÞνια. Η ΝΑΜΑ είναι ένα είδοσ bad bank, Þπου θα υπαχθούν µÞνο τα στεγαστικά προβληµατικά δάνεια και τα προβληµατικά δάνεια προσ

µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ. Θα εξαιρεθούν δηλαδή οι µεγαλοοφειλέτεσ και εδώ είναι που θα αποδειχθεί περίτρανα αν η κοµµατική µασ εξουσία Þντωσ ενδιαφέρεται για τον απλÞ κοσµάκη ή για ακÞµα µια φορά λαϊκίζουν ενώ είναι οι πρώτοι που καλύπτουν τουσ µεγάλουσ καρχαρίεσ. Θα µπορούσαν να υπαχθούν 10 µε 15 δισ ευρώ προβληµατικά χωρίσ τα εταιρικά δάνεια που αποτελούν σύνθετεσ περιπτώσεισ και δεν εξετάζεται η τοποθέτηση τουσ σε bad bank. Τα προβληµατικά δάνεια που θα µπορούσαν να υπαχθούν στην ΝΑΜΑ - bad bank θα λάµβαναν υπÞψη το εξήσ κριτήριο. Το δάνειο µείον η πρÞβλεψη και µε ένα µικρÞ discount. ∆ηλαδή η ΝΑΜΑ ένα προβληµατικÞ δάνειο 1 εκ. ευρώ και µε πρÞβλεψη π.χ. 500,000 ευρώ θα µπορούσε να το

αποκτήσει µε 400,000 ευρώ. Αν και η ΝΑΜΑ δεν χρειάζεται κεφάλαια πρωτογενώσ αλλά αν απαιτηθούν θα πρέπει να τα εισφέρει η ΕΕ µε βραχυπρÞθεσµη χρηµατοδÞτηση (3 µε 5 έτη) αφού έτσι και αλλιώσ το ενδιαφέρον που πιθανÞν να υπάρξει απÞ ιδιώτεσ και funds για χρηµατοδÞτηση τησ bad bank θα είναι πολύ µεγάλο λÞγω του ενδιαφέρον που θα έδειχναν σε ένα τέτοιο σχεδιασµÞ. Στην Ιρλανδία για παράδειγµα το Þλο εγχείρηµα στέφθηκε µε µεγάλη επιτυχία και πολύ µεγάλοι ξένοι στρατηγικοί επενδυτέσ έδειξαν ενδιαφέρον και επένδυσαν στην ΝΑΜΑ. Η ιδέα τησ ΝΑΜΑ είναι µεν ενδιαφέρουσα αλλά πρέπει να σταθµιστούν Þλεσ οι παράµετροι οι θετικέσ και οι αρνητικέσ. Στισ θετικέσ θα ήταν Þτι 10-15 δισεκ. προβληµατικά δάνεια θα έφευγαν απÞ τουσ ισολογισµούσ των τραπεζών εξέλιξη εντυπωσιακά σηµαντική αλλά υπάρχουν και αρνητικέσ το Þφελοσ των τραπεζών απÞ την δυνητική αξιοποίηση των NPLs θα ελαχιστοποιηθεί. Τα σίγουρα πάντωσ δύο είναι. Πρώτο το θέµα των NPLs είναι µείζονοσ σηµασίασ για την επιβίωση του τραπεζικού µασ συστήµατοσ ίσωσ και τησ ίδιασ τησ παραµονήσ µασ στο Ευρώ και δεν µπορεί να αντιµετωπιστεί µε εκβιαστικά χρονοδιαγράµµατα. Αν και σε αυτÞ ίσωσ να µην ευθύνεται καν η ΤρÞικα αφού οι πολιτικοί µασ θα έπρεπε να το τακτοποιήσουν απÞ το περασµένο Φεβρουάριο και Þχι να το σέρνουν απÞ αναβολή σε αναβολή. Το δεύτερο σίγουρο είναι πωσ µικροοφειλέτεσ και µεγαλοοφειλέτεσ σε καµία περίπτωση δεν µπορούν να µπουν στο ίδιο καζάνι και εδώ ακριβώσ θα φανούν οι πραγµατικέσ προθέσεισ των πολιτικών µασ ηγετών.

Ryanair: µ·ÚÈ¿ «ÎÏËÚÔÓÔÌÈ¿» ÔÈ ∫˘ÚÈ·Î¤˜ ∞ÂÚÔÁÚ·ÌÌ¤˜ Τελικά η Ryanair δεν ενδιαφέρεται ιδιαίτερα για την απÞκτηση των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών, οι οποίεσ, σύµφωνα µε τον ∆ιευθύνων Σύµβουλο τησ εταιρείασ, Μάικλ Ο’ Λίρι, αφήνουν ωσ κληρονοµιά τεράστια προβλήµατα. Πάντωσ ο Μάικλ Ο’ Λίρι δεν παρέλειψε να αναφέρει Þτι η Ryanair επέδειξε ενδιαφέρον για τισ Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ, αφού τουσ το ζήτησε η κυπριακή Κυβέρνηση. Η Ryanair µαζί µε άλλεσ 20 εταιρείεσ, εκδήλωσαν την περασµένη εβδοµάδα, µη δεσµευτικÞ ενδιαφέρον για τισ Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ, το οποίο είναι ένα βήµα πριν απÞ την υποβολή δεσµευτικών προσφορών. Παράλληλα, ο ∆ιευθύνων Σύµβουλοσ τησ Ryanair ανέφερε Þτι η εταιρεία επιθυµεί να αναπτύξει τισ δραστηριÞτητέσ τησ στην Κύπρο, και ψάχνει τρÞπουσ ανάπτυξησ των αγορών τησ Μέσησ Ανατολήσ χρησιµοποιώντασ την Κύπρο ωσ βάση. Την ίδια ώρα η ιρλανδική αεροπορική εταιρεία χαµηλού κÞστουσ ανακοίνωσε αύξηση των τριµηνιαίων καθαρών κερδών τησ κατά µιάµιση φορά, αναβαθµίζοντασ παράλ-

ληλα τισ προβλέψεισ τησ στα κέρδη τησ για το σύνολο του οικονοµικού έτουσ, καθώσ εκτιµά αύξηση του αριθµού των επιβατών και µείωση του κÞστουσ. Η Ryanair αναβάθµισε τισ εκτιµήσεισ τησ για τα κέρδη στο σύνολο του έτουσ που άρχισε τον περασµένο Απρίλιο στα 620 - 650 εκ. ευρώ, για το α? τρίµηνο.Τον περασµένο Μάιο,

η εταιρεία εκτιµούσε Þτι τα κέρδη τησ για το σύνολο του έτουσ θα ανέλθουν στα 580 – 620 εκ. ευρώ. ΕφÞσον υλοποιηθεί η εκτίµηση για το σύνολο του έτουσ, αυτή θα αντιπροσωπεύει αύξηση κερδών, µετά τη φορολογία, πέραν του 20% σε σύγκριση µε το προηγούµενο έτοσ.

Πέρσι, η εταιρεία, η οποία αποτελεί µια εκ των πρωτοπÞρων σε χαµηλού κÞστουσ αεροπορικά ταξίδια στην Ευρώπη και είναι γνωστή για την “επιθετική” πολιτική µάρκετινγκ, ανακοίνωσε την πρώτη µείωση κερδών τησ στα τελευταία πέντε χρÞνια λÞγω τησ µείωσησ του αριθµού των επιβατών και την αύξηση του κÞστουσ. Η εταιρεία εκτιµά τώρα Þτι θα µεταφέρει 86 εκατοµµύρια επιβάτεσ το τρέχον έτοσ, που αντιστοιχεί σε αύξηση 5% σε σχέση µε πέρσι. Η προηγούµενη πρÞβλεψη ήταν για 84,6 εκατοµµύρια επιβάτεσ. ΩστÞσο, η Ryanair προειδοποίησε για ένα δύσκολο δεύτερο εξάµηνο του οικονοµικού έτουσ λÞγω των “προσ τα κάτω πιέσεων” στα ναύλα. Τέλοσ απÞ τισ 26 Οκτωβρίου µπαίνει σε ισχύ το χειµερινÞ πρÞγραµµα τησ Ryanair, συνδέοντασ την Πάφο µε τη Ρώµη-Ciampino (Ιταλία), τισ Βρυξέλλεσ-Charleroi (Βέλγιο), Κάουνασ (Λιθουανία), Μάντσεστερ και Λονδίνο-Stansted (Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο) και Θεσσαλονίκη, Αθήνα και Χανιά (Ελλάδα).

™Ù·ıÂÚÔÔÈËÙÈÎ¤˜ Ù¿ÛÂÈ˜ ·ÚÔ˘ÛÈ¿˙ÂÈ ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ∫˘ÚÈ¿ÎÔ˜ √ÚÂÈÓfi fi˜˜ Treasury Division, Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd Σταθεροποιητικέσ τάσεισ παρουσιάζει στισ αρχέσ τησ τρέχουσασ εβδοµάδασ το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα έναντι του δολαρίου καθώσ τυγχάνει διαπραγµάτευσησ στο επίπεδο των 1,3440. Στη Γερµανία ο δείκτησ επιχειρηµατικού κλίµατοσ IFO υποχώρησε τον Ιούλιο σε χαµηλÞ απÞ τον Οκτώβριο του 2013 και ο δείκτησ προσδοκιών IFO διαµορφώθηκε σε χαµηλÞ απÞ τον Αύγουστο του 2013, συµβαδίζοντασ µε την εκτί-

µηση Þτι ο ρυθµÞσ ανάπτυξησ τησ γερµανικήσ οικονοµίασ επιβραδύνθηκε το β’ τρίµηνο. Επιπλέον, στην Ευρωζώνη ο ενοποιηµένοσ δείκτησ PMI ανήλθε τον Ιούλιο στο υψηλÞτερο επίπεδο απÞ τον Απρίλιο. Σηµειώνεται ωστÞσο Þτι στην Ιταλία ο δείκτησ καταναλωτικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ υποχώρησε οριακά τον Ιούλιο και οι λιανικέσ πωλήσεισ υποχώρησαν τον Μάιο σε ετήσια βάση κατά 0,5%. Στισ ΗΠΑ, οι αιτήσεισ για επιδÞµατα ανεργίασ διαµορφώθηκαν την εβδοµάδα έωσ 19 Ιουλίου σε χαµηλÞ απÞ τον Φεβρουάριο του 2006, ενισχύοντασ την εκτίµηση των αναλυτών για σταθερή οικονοµική ανάπτυξη. Επίσησ οι παραγγελίεσ διαρκών καταναλωτικών αγαθών ενισχύθη-

καν τον Ιούνιο κατά 0,7% και οι εκτÞσ τοµέσ µεταφορών κατά 0,8%. ΩστÞσο, οι πωλήσεισ νέων κατοικιών κατέγραψαν σε µηνιαία βάση τον Ιούνιο απροσδÞκητη υποχώρηση στισ 406,000 (εκτίµηση: 475,000) και το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο αναθεώρησε καθοδικά την εκτίµηση του για ενίσχυση του ΑΕΠ των ΗΠΑ κατά 1,7% για το 2014 και ανοδικά για το 2015 κατά 3,0%. Το ενδιαφέρον τησ αγοράσ εστιάζεται την τρέχουσα εβδοµάδα στη σύσκεψη τησ νοµισµατικήσ επιτροπήσ τησ Fed καθώσ οι αναλυτέσ αναµένουν µείωση του προγράµµατοσ ποσοτικήσ επέκτασησ κατά $10 δισ το µήνα και ενδείξεισ για τη µεσοπρÞθεσµη νοµισµατική πολιτική των ΗΠΑ.

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∫ÏÂÈÛÙ¤˜ ÔÈ ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· ΥπÞ αµφισβήτηση τίθεται η «πανηγυρική» επάνοδοσ τησ Ελλάδασ στην αγορά οµολÞγων, καθώσ τα νεÞτερα στοιχεία τησ Τράπεζασ τησ Ελλάδοσ καταδεικνύουν Þτι οι ξένοι επενδυτέσ µπορεί µεν να έδειξαν µεγάλο ενδιαφέρον για τα 5ετή οµÞλογα, αλλά αµέσωσ µετά έσπευσαν να ξεπουλήσουν άλλα ελληνικά χρεÞγραφα, που είχαν στα χαρτοφυλάκιά τουσ, διατηρώντασ σταθερÞ το συνολικÞ βαθµÞ έκθεσησ στη χώρα που, κατά την BlackRock, έχει τα παγκÞσµια θλιβερά πρωτεία σε επικινδυνÞτητα για χρεοκοπία. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε άρθρο που δηµοσίευσε Το Πρώτο Θέµα, τα στοιχεία για την επενδυτική δραστηριÞτητα των ξένων επενδυτών στουσ ελληνικούσ τίτλουσ πείθουν Þτι η πολυδιαφηµισµένη έξοδοσ στισ αγορέσ ήταν µια οφθαλµαπάτη, µε προφανείσ πολιτικέσ σκοπιµÞτητεσ, ενÞψει τÞτε και των ευρωεκλογών, που πίεζαν την κυβέρνηση να επιδείξει στην κοινή γνώµη µια µεγάλη επιτυχία απÞ το χώρο τησ οικονοµίασ. Ùπωσ επισηµαίνουν τραπεζικά στελέχη, θα µιλούσαµε για µια υγιή και βιώσιµη έξοδο τησ χώρασ στισ αγορέσ, εάν πράγµατι οι διαχειριστέσ των διεθνών επενδυτικών κεφαλαίων έδειχναν διάθεση να προσθέσουν ελληνικÞ κίνδυνο στα χαρτοφυλάκιά τουσ, κάτι που θα πιστοποιούσε Þτι έχει αποκατασταθεί η εµπιστοσύνη στην Ελλάδα. Αντί γι’ αυτÞ, Þµωσ, η έκδοση του πρώτου οµολÞγου µετά την υπαγωγή τησ χώρασ σε διεθνέσ πρÞγραµµα διάσωσησ φαίνεται Þτι αντιµετωπίσθηκε ωσ µια καλή κερδοσκοπική ευκαιρία απÞ τουσ διαχειριστέσ κεφαλαίων: τοποθέτησαν µεν κεφάλαια στο νέο τίτλο, που είχε πολύ καλή απÞδοση, αλλά

αµέσωσ µετά ρευστοποίησαν άλλα ελληνικά οµÞλογα, ίδιασ περίπου αξίασ, αποφεύγοντασ, µε αυτÞ τον τρÞπο, να αυξήσουν τον ελληνικÞ κίνδυνο των χαρτοφυλακίων τουσ. Είναι χαρακτηριστικÞ Þτι για το 5ετέσ οµÞλογο υπήρξαν προσφορέσ τησ τάξεωσ των 20 δισ. ευρώ και το ∆ηµÞσιο άντλησε τελικά 3 δισ. ευρώ, µε απÞδοση λίγο χαµηλÞτερη απÞ το 5%, που είναι και η υψηλÞτερη µε µεγάλη διαφορά µεταξύ των αντίστοιχων κρατικών οµολÞγων τησ ευρωζώνησ. Σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία τησ ΤτΕ, Þµωσ, τον αµέσωσ επÞµενο µήνα, το Μάιο, καταγράφηκαν µεγάλεσ εκροέσ, ύψουσ 3,1 δισ ευρώ, απÞ τα ελληνικά οµÞλογα και έντοκα γραµµάτια, λÞγω τησ µείωσησ τοποθετήσεων κεφαλαίων απÞ µη κατοίκουσ. Το γεγονÞσ Þτι η Ελλάδα δεν έχει αποκτήσει πραγµατικά πρÞσβαση στη διεθνή αγορά οµολÞγων επιβεβαιώθηκε περίτρανα πριν απÞ λίγεσ ηµέρεσ, µε την παταγώδη αποτυχία τησ έκδοσησ 3ετούσ οµολÞγου. Το ∆ηµÞσιο επεδίωκε να αντλήσει, διαθέτοντασ και αυτά τα οµÞλογα µε την «ασφαλή» µέθοδο τησ συνεργασίασ µε κοινοπραξία ξένων τραπεζών, το ποσÞ των 3 δισ ευρώ. Οι προσφορέσ απÞ επενδυτέσ, Þµωσ, ήταν δραµατικά µειωµένεσ, στα 3 δισ ευρώ, και τελικά το ∆ηµÞσιο άντλησε µÞλισ 1 δισ ευρώ. Ο ΟργανισµÞσ ∆ιαχείρισησ ∆ηµοσίου Χρέουσ ετοιµάζει για το προσεχέσ διάστηµα, πιθανÞτατα το φθινÞπωρο, άλλη µία έκδοση, 7ετών οµολÞγων αυτή την φορά, ώστε να συµπληρωθεί η καµπύλη των επιτοκίων (3, 5 και 7 έτη). Η επιτυχία αυτήσ τησ έκδοσησ δεν είναι καθÞλου βέβαιη και θα εξαρτηθεί σε πολύ

µεγάλο βαθµÞ απÞ την εντύπωση που θα έχει δοθεί στισ αγορέσ για την πρÞοδο των διαπραγµατεύσεων µε την τρÞικα, για την ολοκλήρωση τησ πέµπτησ αξιολÞγησησ και την έναρξη των διαπραγµατεύσεων για το χρέοσ. Οι εκδÞσεισ νέων οµολÞγων απÞ το ∆ηµÞσιο, τονίζουν τραπεζικά στελέχη, µπορεί να επιτυγχάνουν το στÞχο τησ εµβάθυνσησ τησ αγοράσ κρατικών τίτλων, που είχε ωσ τώρα µÞνο πολύ µακρινά και πολύ βραχυπρÞθεσµα «χαρτιά» να προσφέρει στουσ επενδυτέσ. Ùµωσ, δεν φαίνεται προσ το παρÞν Þτι η κυβέρνηση έχει αποκαταστήσει σε τέτοιο βαθµÞ τισ σχέσεισ µε την αγορά, ώστε να υπάρξει πραγµατική διάθεση των ξένων

επενδυτών να αυξήσουν τισ τοποθετήσεισ τουσ στα ελληνικά οµÞλογα, προσφέροντασ στη χώρα µια σηµαντική και αξιÞπιστη πηγή χρηµατοδÞτησησ, που θα µπορούσε να λειτουργήσει σαν «αντίβαρο» στη χρηµατοδÞτηση µε αυστηρούσ Þρουσ απÞ τουσ δανειστέσ του επίσηµου τοµέα. Άλλωστε, οι ξένοι επενδυτέσ δανείζουν την Ελλάδα, έστω µε το «σταγονÞµετρο», Þσο παραµένει στην ασφαλή αγκαλιά τησ τρÞικασ και των επίσηµων πιστωτών, ενώ είναι πολύ αµφίβολο πÞσα κεφάλαια θα κατευθύνονταν στα ελληνικά οµÞλογα, αν οι επενδυτέσ ήξεραν Þτι δεν υπάρχει χρηµατοδοτικÞ «δίχτυ ασφαλείασ» απÞ την Ε.Ε. και το ∆ΝΤ και Þτι η τρÞικα παύει να επιτηρεί αυστηρά την ελληνική οικονοµική πολιτική.

Stress tests ÌÂ ‚¿ÛË Ù· Û¯¤‰È· ·Ó·‰È¿ÚıÚˆÛË˜ ÙˆÓ ÙÚ·Â˙ÒÓ Να υπολογιστούν τα αποτελέσµατα απÞ τα business plans αναδιάρθρωσησ των τεσσάρων ελληνικών τραπεζών στον έλεγχο των stress tests που θα γίνει µέσα στο 2014 και να µην γίνουν οι υπολογισµοί των stress tests πάνω στουσ (στατικούσ) ισολογισµούσ τησ προηγούµενησ χρονιάσ, φέρεται Þτι ζητά η ελληνική κυβέρνηση σύµφωνα µε δηµοσιεύµατα. Συγκεκριµένα ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµίασ Γ. Χαρδούβελησ εξέφρασε τισ απÞψεισ και ανησυχίεσ του στη συνάντηση των υπουργών Οικονοµικών στισ 8 Ιουλίου, προσπαθώντασ να αποφύγει η ελληνική κυβέρνηση το αίτηµα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ για νέεσ αυξήσεισ µετοχικών κεφαλαίων µετά απÞ τα stress tests και Þταν θα έχουν εγκριθεί τα σχέδια αναδιάρθρωσησ των τραπεζών, αλλά δεν θα έχουν προχωρήσει σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ. Υπενθυµίζεται Þτι η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα (ΕΚΤ) θα προχωρήσει στον έλεγχο των περιουσιακών στοιχείων των τεσσάρων συστηµικών τραπεζών και θα ανακοινώσει τα αποτελέσµατα τον

Οκτώβριο πριν αναλάβει η ΕΚΤ υπεύθυνη για τον έλεγχο στην εποπτεία των τραπεζών στην Ευρωζώνη απÞ τισ 4 Νοεµβρίου του 2014. Το ζητούµενο για την ελληνική πλευρά (τράπεζεσ και κυβέρνηση) είναι κατά πÞσο οι ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ αν κληθούν να προχωρήσουν σε νέεσ αυξήσεισ µετοχικών κεφαλαίων θα έχουν τη δυνατÞτητα να χρηµατοδοτήσουν την οικονοµία, η οποία διέρχεται τον έκτο χρÞνο ύφεσησ, καθώσ τα σχέδια αναδιάρθρωσησ (µείωση λειτουργικού κÞστουσ και πωλήσεισ θυγατρικών) δεν θα έχουν ολοκληρωθεί µέχρι τα stress tests. Ένα άλλο επιχείρηµα τησ κυβέρνησησ είναι Þτι εάν υπάρξει αρνητική εικÞνα των ελληνικών τραπεζών στα stress tests τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ θα υπάρχουν παράπλευρεσ επιπτώσεισ πέρα απÞ τον τραπεζικÞ κλάδο και θα επηρεαστεί η ευρύτερη οικονοµία. Υπενθυµίζεται Þτι και οι τέσσερισ συστηµικέσ τράπεζεσ -ETE, Πειραιώσ, Eurobank, Alpha Bank- χρηµατοδοτήθηκαν απÞ το ΤΧΣ µε 25,5 δισ ευρώ για να ενισχύσουν την κεφαλαι-

ακή τουσ επάρκεια και ξÞδεψαν άλλα 14,4 δισ ευρώ για να καλύψουν απώλειεσ απÞ µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια. Το Γραφείο Προϋπολογισµού τησ Βουλήσ αναφέρει Þτι το ζήτηµα των τραπεζών, παρά τισ ανακεφαλαιοποιήσεισ που επιτεύχθηκαν, δεν έχει λυθεί, καθώσ εκκρεµεί λύση για τα µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια, τα οποία συνεχίζουν να αυξάνονται και να περιορίζουν τισ δανειοδοτικέσ ικανÞτητεσ των τραπεζών. ΑπÞ το χαρτοφυλάκιο χορηγήσεων σε καθυστέρηση τα 42 δισ είναι επιχειρηµατικά δάνεια, τα 25 δισ. στεγαστικά και τα 10 δισ καταναλωτικά δάνεια. Εάν στα παραπάνω δάνεια προστεθούν και τα ήδη αναδιαρθρωµένα που Þµωσ έχουν ξαναγίνει µη εξυπηρετούµενα, το αντίστοιχο ποσοστÞ διαµορφώνεται στο 40% Σύµφωνα µε την πρÞσφατη έκθεση του ∆ΝΤ, το ποσοστÞ των µη εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων στην Ελλάδα είναι ένα απÞ τα µεγαλύτερα στον κÞσµο, το οποίο ξεπερνά επίπεδα άλλων χωρών που έχουν οδηγήσει σε συστηµικέσ κρίσεισ.

ªÂ›ˆÛË ÙˆÓ Ùˆ¯Â‡ÛÂˆÓ… ·ÏÏ¿ Στην Ελλάδα σηµειώθηκαν 392 πτωχεύσεισ το 2013, έναντι 415 πτωχεύσεων το 2012, παρουσιάζοντασ µείωση 5,5%, σύµφωνα µε µελέτη τησ ICAP Group. Σηµειώνεται Þτι στην Ελλάδα, Þπου το τελευταίο έτοσ η οικονοµία συρρικνώθηκε κατά 3,9%, µÞνον ένα µικρÞ ποσοστÞ των εταιρικών «λουκέτων» πραγµατοποιήθηκε µέσω των επίσηµων διαδικασιών του πτωχευτικού κώδικα, Þπωσ αναφέρεται στην Ετήσια Πανευρωπαϊκή Μελέτη, η οποία εκπονήθηκε µε τη συµµετοχή τησ ICAP Group. Ο συνολικÞσ αριθµÞσ των εταιρειών που πτώχευσαν στη ∆υτική Ευρώπη το 2013, ανήλθε σε 192.340 επιχειρήσεισ, έναντι 190.161 επιχειρήσεων το 2012 (αύξηση 1,1% ή 2.179 επιχειρήσεισ). Είναι χαρακτηριστικÞ Þτι απÞ τισ 17 χώρεσ που εξετάστηκαν, στισ εννέα χώρεσ σηµειώθηκε µείωση των πτωχεύσεων, µε τα πιο αισιÞδοξα µηνύµατα να προέρχονται απÞ την Ιρλανδία (-19%) και το Βέλγιο (-11%), ενώ οι υπÞλοιπεσ οκτώ χώρεσ είχαν αύξηση, µε χαρακτηριστικÞτερα παραδείγµατα τη Νορβηγία (+20), την Ιταλία (+16%) και την Ισπανία (+15%). ΛιγÞτερεσ αριθµητικά ήταν οι πτωχεύσεισ που σηµειώθηκαν στο Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο και τη Γερµανία, ενώ περισσÞτερεσ πραγµατοποιήθηκαν στη Γαλλία.

Στην Ελλάδα σηµειώθηκαν 392 πτωχεύσεισ το 2013, έναντι 415 πτωχεύσεων το 2012, ήτοι µείωση 5,5%. Σηµειώνεται Þτι στην Ελλάδα, Þπου το προηγούµενο έτοσ, η οικονοµία συρρικνώθηκε κατά 3,9%, µÞνον ένα µικρÞ ποσοστÞ των εταιρικών «λουκέτων», πραγµατοποιήθηκε µέσω των επίσηµων διαδικασιών του πτωχευτικού κώδικα. Κύρια αιτία τησ αυξηµένησ τάσησ των πτωχεύσεων αποτελεί η επιδείνωση του επιχειρηµατικού και οικονοµικού περιβάλλοντοσ. ΕιδικÞτερα, οι παράγοντεσ που επηρέασαν τον αριθµÞ των πτωχεύσεων ήταν η ανεργία, ο ιδιωτικÞσ δανεισµÞσ, ο περιορισµÞσ των χρηµατοδοτήσεων, αλλά και δοµικέσ αιτίεσ, Þπωσ για παράδειγµα η έλλειψη ιδίων κεφαλαίων, η αυτοαπασχÞληση, η µείωση του Εθνικού Εγχώριου ΠροϊÞντοσ, οι οποίοι στο σύνολÞ τουσ δεν εµπνέουν µακρÞπνοη σταθερÞτητα. Συνολικά, τα αποτελέσµατα των επιχειρήσεων δείχνουν Þτι πέντε χρÞνια απÞ την έναρξη τησ κρίσησ στην Ευρώπη, οι επιχειρήσεισ συνεχίζουν να παρουσιάζουν οικονοµική δυσχέρεια και να βρίσκονται σε δύσκολη κατάσταση. Αρκετέσ επιχειρήσεισ έχοντασ χάσει τη διεθνή τουσ ανταγωνιστικÞτητα αντιµετωπίζουν µειωµένη κερδοφορία, ενώ τα αυξηµένα κÞστη (πχ ενέργειασ και πρώτων υλών) συµπιέζουν ακÞµη περισσÞτερο τα κέρδη των επιχειρήσεων. Το 2012, µÞνο το 45% των επιχειρήσεων βελτίωσαν την κερδοφορία τουσ.

∞Ó·‚¿ıÌÈÛË ·fi Fitch Ωσ προάγγελο γενικÞτερησ αναβάθµισησ τησ ελληνικήσ οικονοµίασ, θεωρείται η αναβάθµιση των προγραµµάτων καλυµµένων οµολÞγων µε ενυπÞθηκα δάνεια των ελληνικών τραπεζών που προχώρησε ο οίκοσ Fitch. Συγκεκριµένα : Εθνική Τράπεζα (B-/Stable/B, Viability Rating (VR) ΄b-), Alpha Bank (B-/Stable/B, VR ΄b-), Eurobank (B-/Stable/B, VR ΄b-) και Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ (B-/Stable/B, VR ΄b). Το outlook είναι σταθερÞ, Þπωσ ανακοίνωσε ο οίκοσ. Η Fitch ανακοίνωσε Þτι η απÞφαση τησ ακολουθεί την θεσµοθέτηση τησ Οδηγίασ για την Ανάκαµψη και Εξυγίανση Τραπεζών (BRRD) η οποία δηµοσιεύτηκε στισ 12 Ιουνίου στην Επίσηµη Εφηµερίδα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

30 ΙΟΥΛΙΟΥ, 2014

8 | ΑΓΟΡΑ | financialmirror.com ÕÓÔÈÍÂ ÙÔ ∞§º∞ª∂°∞ ÛÙË ª·Ú›Ó· §ÂÌÂÛÔ‡

TOYOTA AYGO - ∆Ô ÈÔ FUN ·˘ÙÔÎ›ÓËÙÔ Â›Ó·È Â‰Ò Πραγµατοποιήθηκε µε µεγάλη επιτυχία η πρώτη παρουσίαση του νέου Toyota Aygo, που εντυπωσιάζει µε τον εξωτερικÞ σχεδιασµÞ του και το χαρακτηριστικÞ «Χ» στην µπροστινή µάσκα. Το νέο Aygo έρχεται µε το προηγµένο σύστηµα πολυµέσων x-Touch, µε µεγάλη έγχρωµη οθÞνη αφήσ 7 ιντσών καθώσ και κάµερα οπισθοπορίασ για άνεση και ασφάλεια κατά το παρκάρισµα. Με χαµηλή κατανάλωση καυσίµου µÞνο 4,1 λ/100χλµ. και χαµηλέσ εκποµπέσ ρύπων µÞλισ 95 γρ/χλµ. ΤÞσο το εσωτερικÞ Þσο και το εξωτερικÞ, έχουν σχεδιαστεί µε τέτοιο τρÞπο που να επιτρέπουν µια µεγάλη ποικιλία διαφορετικών συνδυασµών. Έτσι, το νέο Aygo δεν είναι µÞνο διασκεδαστικÞ στην οδήγηση, αλλά και ωσ προσ τισ δικέσ σασ, µοναδικέσ επιλογέσ εξατοµίκευσησ (customisation). ΠερισσÞτερα απÞ 10 µέρη του οχήµατοσ µπορούν εύκολα να αντικατασταθούν σε µικρÞ χρονικÞ διάστηµα µε άλλα χρώµατα και συνδυασµούσ, επιτρέποντασ σασ να δηµιουργήσετε το δικÞ σασ µοναδικÞ Aygo. ΠερισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στο www.toyota.com.cy

∆Ô Emirates A380 Ï¤ÂÈ «¡·Ì·ÛÙ¤ µÔÌ‚¿Ë» Η Emirates, άρχισε την πρώτη προγραµµατισµένη Airbus A380 υπηρεσία τησ στην Ινδία µε µια καθηµερινή πτήση µεταξύ Ντουµπάι και Βοµβάησ. Η Emirates έχει πλέον 50 αεροσκάφη τύπου Α380 στο στÞλο τησ των 224 ευρείασ ατράκτου αεροσκαφών και είναι ο µεγαλύτεροσ χειριστήσ στον κÞσµο δύο καταστρωµάτων µε περισσÞτερα απÞ 90 σε παραγγελία. Κάθε κάθισµα στο σκάφοσ συνδέεται µε το ice, που έχει µÞλισ ψηφιστεί ωσ το καλύτερο σύστηµα ψυχαγωγίασ εν πτήσει στον κÞσµο για 10η συνεχÞµενη χρονιά απÞ την Skytrax, τη µεγαλύτερη έρευνα ικανοποίησησ επιβατών αεροπορικών εταιρειών στον κÞσµο σε πάνω απÞ 18 εκατοµµύρια επιβάτεσ σε Þλο τον κÞσµο. H Emirates λειτουργεί τέσσερισ τακτικέσ πτήσεισ την εβδοµάδα µεταξύ Λάρνακασ και Ντουµπάι. ΑπÞ την 1η Αυγούστου, η αεροπορική εταιρεία θα προσθέσει τρεισ ακÞµη πτήσεισ την εβδοµάδα και θα λειτουργεί καθηµερινά προγραµµατισµένεσ πτήσεισ µεταξύ Ντουµπάι και Κύπρου και µετά στη Μάλτα. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ επισκεφθείτε την www.emirates.com

MÂ ÙËÓ ˘ÔÁÚ·Ê‹ ™Î·ÚÌÔ‡ÙÛÔ˘ ÔÈ ÁÂ‡ÛÂÈ˜ ÛÙÔ Mediterraneo Ένα µοναδικÞ ταξίδι µεσογειακών γεύσεων και αρωµάτων, απÞλαυσαν οι εκπρÞσωποι των ΜΜΕ, στο ατµοσφαιρικÞ περιβάλλον του all-day καφεστιατορίου Mediterraneo στη Μαρίνα Λεµεσού, στο πλαίσιο µιασ ανατρεπτικήσ και πρωτÞτυπησ Συνέντευξησ Τύπου, ακριβώσ δίπλα στη Θάλασσα. Το απολαυστικÞ αποµεσήµερο σφράγισε µε την παρουσία του ο διάσηµοσ σεφ ∆ηµήτρησ Σκαρµούτσοσ, ο οποίοσ υπογράφει το µενού. Ο ∆ηµήτρησ Σκαρµούτσοσ εξήγησε, πωσ µε έµπνευση τη µεσογειακή γαστρονοµική κουλτούρα και µε γνώµονα τα αγνά υλικά, επαναπροσδιορίζει παραδοσιακέσ συνταγέσ και τισ µεταµορφώνει σε πρωτÞτυπα πιάτα αναδεικνύοντασ την ποιÞτητα, τη γεύση αλλά και την αισθητική. Το µενού των εδεσµάτων του ακαταµάχητου γεύµατοσ που επιµελήθηκε ο ∆ηµήτρησ Σκαρµούτσοσ και απÞλαυσαν οι προσκεκληµένοι, άρχισε µε τα µοναδικά ορεκτικά… καλαµάρι σχάρασ, καρπάτσιο οκταποδιού και κολοκυθοκεφτέδεσ µε χαλούµι. Ξεχωριστή πινελιά στο τραπέζι οι δροσιστικέσ σαλάτεσ chevre salad και quinoa salad και οι λαχταριστέσ δηµιουργίεσ ζυµαρικών ταλιατέλεσ µε σπαράγγια και κοτÞπουλο.

™ÙÔ MyMall ÙÔ ÚÒÙÔ Î·Ù¿ÛÙËÌ· I AM Το I AM, το ευρωπαϊκÞ brand µε µοντέρνα και θηλυκά αξεσουάρ άνοιξε το πρώτο του κατάστηµα στην Κύπρο, στο MyMall, στη ΛεµεσÞ. Το I AM είναι brand κοσµηµάτων για γυναίκεσ που λατρεύουν τη µÞδα και το στυλ και ξέρουν τι θέλουν. Η αποθέωση τησ θηλυκÞτητασ µε το συνδυασµÞ των τελευταίων trends και διαχρονικών, κλασικών κοµµατιών που τελειοποιούν το κάθε στυλ και µετατρέπουν τα ρούχα σε ολοκληρωµένα looks. Το I AM έχει την έδρα του στην Κολωνία τησ Γερµανίασ και λειτουργεί πέραν των 175 καταστηµάτων σε Þλο τον κÞσµο. Στην Κύπρο, το I AM αντιπροσωπεύει ο Ùµιλοσ Azadea, µια κορυφαία εταιρεία λιανικού εµπορίου στον τοµέα τησ µÞδασ και του lifestyle που κατέχει και λειτουργεί τα δικαιώµατα δικαιÞχρησησ πέραν των 50 brands στη Μέση Ανατολή, τη ΒÞρεια Αφρική, την Ασία και την Ευρώπη. Μάθετε περισσÞτερα για το I AM στο www.i-am.com Ο Ùµιλοσ Azadea είναι µια κορυφαία εταιρεία λιανικού εµπορίου στον τοµέα τησ µÞδασ και του lifestyle που κατέχει και λειτουργεί τα δικαιώµατα δικαιÞχρησησ πέραν των 50 brands στη Μέση Ανατολή, τη ΒÞρεια Αφρική, την Ασία και την Ευρώπη. ΑπÞ την ίδρυση του, το 1978, ο Ùµιλοσ έχει αναπτύξει µια σηµαντική αλυσίδα απÞ καταστήµατα που αντιπροσωπεύουν µεγάλα ονÞµατα στουσ τοµείσ τησ µÞδασ και των αξεσουάρ, των τροφίµων και ποτών, τησ επίπλωσησ κατοικιών, των αθλητικών ειδών και των πολυµέσων.

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Οι κάτοικοι και επισκέπτεσ τησ Μαρίνασ Λεµεσού, αλλά και οι γείτονεσ τησ περιοχήσ του Κάστρου έχουν πλέον τον ιδανικÞ προορισµÞ τουσ για τα καθηµερινά τουσ ψώνια. ΑπÞ το Σάββατο 19 Ιουλίου τέθηκε σε λειτουργία το 11o κατάστηµα ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ των πρώτων κυπριακών υπεραγορών. Το κατάστηµα είναι 140 τετραγωνικά, προσαρµοσµένο στην αρχιτεκτονική τησ µαρίνασ, και θα περιλαµβάνει 1700 περίπου κωδικούσ, µε τουσ οποίουσ ένα νοικοκυριÞ ή ένα πλήρωµα µπορεί να καλύψει τισ βασικέσ του ανάγκεσ. Περιλαµβάνει αγαπηµένα επώνυµα προϊÞντα αλλά και ποιοτικά προϊÞντα TESCO, προϊÞντα ιδιωτικήσ ετικέτασ ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ, AB και 365, δίνοντασ την ευκαιρία στον πελάτη να επιλέξει αυτÞ που ταιριάζει στισ δικέσ του ανάγκεσ απÞ ένα ευρύτατο φάσµα τιµών.

∏ÏÂÎÙÚÈÎ‹ ÌÔÙÔÛÈÎÏ¤Ù· ·fi ÙË Harley Davidson Οι µοτοσικλέτεσ τησ Harley Davidson είναι το σύµβολο µίασ κουλτούρασ ελευθερίασ και «κλασικού», που επέµενε στο δικÞ τησ πνεύµα, ανεξάρτητα απÞ τισ επιταγέσ των καιρών. Αυτή τη φορά η Harley Davidson εκπλήσσει τουσ πάντεσ µε την παρουσίαση του Project LiveWire- τησ πρώτησ ηλεκτρικήσ µοτοσικλέτασ τησ εταιρείασ. Η µοτοσικλέτα συνδυάζει την στιλιστική κληρονοµιά τησ Harley µε την τελευταία τεχνολογία για να «παρέχει µία νέα έκφραση του χαρακτηριστικού look, ήχου και αίσθησησ τησ Harley Davidson». Το Project LiveWire έχει ωσ κύριο στÞχο την εξαγωγή συµπερασµάτων Þσον αφορά στο τι περιµένουν οι µοτοσικλετιστέσ απÞ µία ηλεκτρική Harley. Το 2015 το Project Live Experience θα συνεχίσει στισ ΗΠΑ και θα επεκταθεί και στον Καναδά και στην Ευρώπη. ΜακροπρÞθεσµα, τα σχέδια για την πώληση τησ µοτοσικλέτασ στο ευρύ κοινÞ θα επηρεαστούν απÞ το feedback το οποίο θα προκύψει απÞ το Project LiveWire Experience tour.

∏ «°Ú·ÌÌ‹ ˙ˆ‹˜» ÁÈÔÚÙ¿˙ÂÈ Ù· 15¯ÚÔÓ· ÙË˜ H ‘Γραµµή ζωήσ’, η αγαπηµένη φιλανθρωπική εκδήλωση των Λαρνακαίων και Þχι µÞνο, του Παγκύπριου Συνδέσµου Καρκινοπαθών και Φίλων (ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ), γιορτάζει φέτοσ τα 15χρονα τησ . Η καθιερωµένη εκδήλωση θα πραγµατοποιηθεί και φέτοσ, το Σάββατο 2 Αυγούστου, στην Παραλία Φοινικούδων, στην Εξέδρα ∆ηµαρχείου, στην Λάρνακα. Η εκδήλωση που τελεί υπÞ την Προστασία του Επίτροπου Εθελοντισµού και Μη Κυβερνητικών Οργανώσεων κ. Γιάννη Γιαννάκη και υπÞ την Αιγίδα του ∆ηµάρχου Λάρνακασ κ. Ανδρέα Λουρουτζιάτη θα ξεκινήσει στισ 8.00 µµ και θα περιλαµβάνει ένα πλούτσιο καλλιτεχνικÞ πρÞγραµµα µε την συµπατριώτισσα µασ, τραγουδίστρια Ελευθερία Ελευθερίου. Τα έσοδα θα στηρίξουν τισ Υπηρεσίεσ που προσφέρει ο ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

financialmirror.com | WORLD MARKETS| 17

Is the BRICS rise over? The BRICS name is certainly here to stay, and in terms of global governance, their influence is likely to rise as a group because of the agreement to set up a joint development bank, says the man who coined the term ‘BRICS’ By Jim O’Neill On one level, this seems like a rather odd time to be asking such a question, especially when the BRICS political leaders have just agreed to set up a joint development bank to be headquartered in Shanghai. So the BRICS name is certainly here to stay, and in terms of global governance, their influence is likely to rise as a group because of this development. Previously, the BRICS political leaders meetings had failed to agree anything specific and even once the creation of such a bank was first mooted, for the past two years, they appeared to have difficulties in agreeing where it might be located and how it should be capitalised. At this Fontaleza meeting in Brazil, they have confounded sceptics by agreeing not only both these key things, but also to have the first head of the Bank to be an Indian. What the Bank will prioritise in terms of lending and projects, we will have to wait and see, but one can think of many good ideas including shared road and rail infrastructure challenges, especially those with some common borders, projects for energy efficiency, alternative energies, clean and safe water, and of great importance to themselves, to focus on the growing resistance to antibiotics, a challenge that if a solution cannot be found will be very harmful for their futures. But if the BRICS leaders hadn’t made this breakthrough, I am sure the siren rising about the end of the BRIC economic phenomena would be even louder and it is important to try and objectively deal with this, separately from this announcement, important as that is. So, let’s deal with the case as to why the BRIC story might be past its prime. Some observers believed that the whole notion of a grouping of Brazil, Russia, India and China never made any sound sense because beyond having a lot of people, they didn’t share anything else in common. In particular, two are democracies, and two are not, obviously, China and Russia. Similarly, two are major commodity producers, Brazil and Russia, the

other two, not. And their levels of wealth are quite different, with Brazil and Russia well above $10,000, China around $ 7-8 k, and India less than $ 2k per head. And the sceptic would follow all of this by saying, the only reason why Brazil and Russia grew so well in the past decade was simply due to a persistent boom in commodity prices, and once that finished, as appears to be the case now, then their economies would lose their shine, as indeed appears to be the case. Throw in that China would inevitably be caught by its own significant challenges at some point, which the doubters would say, is now, then all is left is India, and if it weren’t for the election of Modi recently, there has not been a lot to justify structural optimism about that country recently. It is factually the case that all four BRIC countries have seen their GDP growth rates slow sharply in this decade. From 2011-13, China has grown by 8.2pct compared to 10.5 pct the last decade, India has slowed to 4.6pct , down from 7.6, Brazil has grown by 2pct, down from 3.6, and Russia , some 3pct, compared to 4.6pct. So all four have grown less, and in all cases, there are plenty of issues to worry about. But, let’s now start to get serious. Because of China’s huge importance, the weighted average performance of the BRIC growth rate since 2011 is 6.5pct. Now this is down from 7.9pct the last decade, but higher than the previous two decades. China today is one and a half times the size of the other three put together, so its influence on their combined growth rate is more important. Related to this, the BRIC countries combined GDP is nearly as large as the US, and by end 2015, it will be the same size in current US$. (In PPP terms, it is already substantially larger than the US). So even with slower growth, the BRIC country’s economic influence is on the rise. In US$ terms, they are contributing decade to date more than 3 times to the world economy that of the US, and obviously in PPP terms, even more. So, the idea that the importance of the BRICs is over is really not a credible objective economic issue. (note I don’t make any inclusion of South Africa as that economy is so small, it is not justified to be regarded in the same economic sphere. It is actually not even the largest economy in sub-Sahara

Africa anymore, Nigeria is today. And there at least 8 other so called emerging economies are much bigger than South Africa, some of them at least 3 times) What is undoubtedly true is that the RATE of BRIC growth has slowed, but while this might be a surprise to the casual observer, it certainly isn’t to most who follow them closely. In fact, the 6.5pct decade to date is just 0.1pt less than I had assumed in 2010 that they would grow by 6.6pct. China, crucially is actually growing by more than I assumed, so far by 8.2pct, actually more than the 7.5pct I assumed. This is compensating for the weaker growth in the other three, which indeed has disappointed my expectations, especially Brazil and Russia, and to some degree India. So it might be truer that the BRIC story decade to date has been purely supported by China, and without that, then the disappointment might be much more justified. And it would follow that if China is about to slow a lot further, which many sceptics think, then the BRIC economic story would become marginally less. The problem with this line of thinking is that while there are considerable challenges for China, in many cases, there is evidence that the policymakers are rising to those challenges and trying to deal with them, which I might point out is quite different from many other countries that often ignore them until they cause massive crises. For example, how many readers can recall any country deliberately trying to stop house prices rising as China has- possiblysuccessfully-done? A couple of years ago, people worried about housing bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai, they don’t talk about that anymore. Why? Because the problem has eased due to policy. Today the sceptics

fear bubbles in so-called second and third tier cities, but I think there is a reasonable chance that the policymakers will deal with them especially with so many migrants still to migrate and, now, to receive proper full blown urban citizen rights including house ownership. And more importantly still, is the data itself. After months of clear slowing, much of it, including the recent PMI’s and June’s raft of economic data has all improved further, and from what I can see, 7.5pct looks to be in the bag for 2014, if not a bit stronger. I do believe each of Brazil and Russia have got some challenges to face, that they are not yet confronting, which at the core is to reduce their dependency to the commodity cycle, and while there are many differences between them, they do both need to become more competitive and entrepreneurial outside of commodities and to boost private sector investment. Which leaves India, about who I have to say, following the really powerful election victory of Modi, I think there are clear reasons to expect big policy improvements, and I now don’t entirely rule out that this country could still match my 7.5pct expectation for the decade. It will be really difficult, but what is quite likely is that they may grow more than 7.5pct in the second half of the decade, and possibly faster than China. So the BRIC economic story over? I think not, even without their historically important decision to create a shared development bank, the consequences of which we are set to learn about. After being on its board since inception, Jim O’Neill became a Visiting Research Fellow to the think tank, Bruegel in September 2013 www.bruegel.org

Why this Twitter earnings report matters so much Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) was set to report its second quarter earnings report after the close of trading on Tuesday. This will be just the second full quarter earnings report since its late 2013 IPO. The Thomson Reuters estimate is for a loss of one-cent per share on revenues of $283 mln. Management had guided in a range of $270 to $180 mln. “New advertising is said to be continuing to let the company grow, but we are also looking at that user growth closely and the internal ad metrics rather than just the raw revenue number,” Jon C.

Ogg commented on 24/7 WallSt.com. “We would caution that 2013 revenue was $664.89 mln, up almost 110% from the $316.93 mln in 2012. Revenue growth is expected to slow ahead – with 90% growth to $1.27 bln in 2014 and with revenue growth of another 62% to $2.06 bln in 2015. This is still massive growth expected, but many investors remain mixed to uncertain about Twitter and its endless growth.” “On top of revenue growth, we will again be looking closely at user growth. This should be up somewhere close to

around 6% again to around 270 mln users, although the fair range might be 265 mln to 275 mln.” The number is too wild to calculate for an earnings multiple for 2014, but even after losing half of its post-IPO peak value Twitter still trades above 140-times expected 2015 earnings per share. It is also trading at a multiple of almost 11times expected 2015 revenues. “We have long wondered how investors will continue to treat social media stocks in the years ahead. At some point there will either be a split where social media takes over or there

will be user fatigue. That verdict remains out,” Ogg said. Twitter shares were above $38 on Monday in afternoon trading. Its 52-week trading range is $29.51 to $74.73, and the consensus analyst price target is almost $43.50. It almost feels like a conundrum for Twitter investors. The stock has lost half of its peak value, but it likely still has to post very strong numbers to keep investors happy. Having a market cap of $22.25 bln in revenues comes with high expectations, and disappointing on those expectations could come with serious consequences.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

Will Google’s shopping spree pay off? By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary

It is no secret that Google didn’t have the greatest start to the year. Its stock failed to impress amid the bad press that the firm received as it began to erase search results in response to EU privacy laws and as it implemented a stock split that consolidated the power of its founders, sidelining the minor shareholders. However, the tech superpower has been flexing its muscles again. Can it restore the faith of investors in its long-term global vision? Google reported its second quarter earnings in July, its first report since splitting the stock into two classes, and the results were mixed but overall positive. Revenue was up 22% from last year, with net revenues totaling $12.67 bln, higher than the $12.39 bln that analysts had forecast. Yet earnings per share were lower than expected, and predictably, the rise of mobile usage meant that the cost per click of web-based ads was down, now 6% lower than last year.

It is important for investors to keep in mind that the growth of the mobile market is not a negative for Google per se but it does require the ad-based business to adapt. Google’s share of mobile ad spending in the U.S. dropped from close to 50% in 2012 to 41.5% in 2013, while Facebook’s share rose. Google has said publicly that it is working on better understanding how users expect their various devices to communicate and hopes to take advantage of the resultant business opportunities. The goal is to streamline the user experience between mobile and desktop. It’s not only their public statements that exude confidence. Google enjoyed a hiring spree in the last quarter, adding over 2,000 people to its existing 50,000 strong team. The world’s largest online advertiser also more than tripled its spending on acquisitions to $4.2 bln in the first six months of the year, compared with $1.3 bln for the same time period in 2013. In a filing last Thursday, the company explained how the acquisitions “enhance the breadth and depth of our expertise in engineering and other functional areas, our technologies, and our product offerings.” The immense scale of spending proves that Google is exploring new markets and is indeed looking to adapt its business model to the quickly changing tech scene.

Without a doubt, Google’s deep pockets make it a serious competitor in any field it chooses to enter. While we may not yet be seeing the full results of Google’s activity reflected in the stock price, many analysts are confident that the second half of 2014 could continue on a positive note; it may only be a matter of time until the firm’s investments lead to profits.

www.bancdebinary.com

Suprises ahead for EUR and GBP Markets Report by Forextime Ltd By Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM

EURUSD: Drops to November 2013 low After stating during a testimony to the EU Parliament a week earlier that the EURUSD was overvalued, ECB President Mario Draghi will be content to see that the EURUSD continued to move to the downside last week. In fact, the Euro concluded the week at its lowest level against the Dollar since November 22, 2013. Bearish movement in the EURUSD intensified last Tuesday, after news emerged that EU ministers were congregating in Brussels to discuss the possibility of further economic sanctions on Russia. Further bearish momentum was felt on Friday, after Germany’s latest IFO data missed expectations. This encouraged a new yearly low of 1.3421. In truth, which direction this pair fluctuates during the first few days of the

week is largely dependent on whether there will be any risk appetite in the currency markets in anticipation of the latest US GDP and FOMC decision on Wednesday. After losing over 100 pips last week, it is likely the EURUSD will try to regain a proportion of these losses. As well as the latest FOMC decision and US GDP on Wednesday, the markets will also be focused on the latest German CPI. On Thursday, the latest EU CPI is announced with the EU economy currently encountering low inflation levels and according to Bloomberg, EU CPI remained at 0.5% for the third successive month in July. Confirmation of this will reopen the debate regarding whether the ECB needs to introduce a QE programme. Therefore, further bearish moves in the EURUSD remain possible. Moving onto technicals, a bearish trend line formed in April continues to dictate the overall direction of the EURUSD. The overall EU sentiment remains bleak and it will take quite a contrast in fundamentals (such as EU CPI improving) for this trend line to conclude. Upcoming EURUSD support levels are at 1.3412 and 1.3358. A downside move towards the latter level would represent the lowest EURUSD valuation

since October 2013. Both the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are suggesting this pair is currently oversold and if the EURUSD does begin to recover some of last week’s losses, possible EUR resistance can be seen at 1.3460 and 1.3474.

GBPUSD: A loss of momentum Many investors could be rubbing their eyes after reading this but last week, the GBPUSD recorded over seven days of consecutive losses for the first time since May 2012. Following the tragedy in eastern Europe, last week commenced with investors seeking safe-havens such as the USD. A lack of hawkishness in last Wednesday’s BoE minutes and Thursday’s UK retail sales falling slightly below expectations further enticed investors to take profit on the Cable. The GBPUSD concluded the week below 1.70 for the first time in a month. With the exception of various domestic housing releases on Tuesday, UK economic data is low in volume this week. Any fluctuation in GBPUSD will likely be controlled by what type of market reaction

arises in anticipation of Wednesday’s US GDP/ FOMC decision and Friday’s non-farm payroll. If the GBPUSD continues to suffer losses, this will symbolise the first time the GBPUSD has recorded more ten days of consecutive losses since February 2010. As regards technicals, a bullish trend line which has been in play since October 2013 continues to control the overall GBPUSD direction. However, a tentative bearish channel has now emerged and the price appears to be slowly pulling back towards the trend line. Investors could be looking at this trend line as a possible entry area. Before then, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator is indicating that it can experience some more bearish movement before entering the oversold boundaries. Meaning, the 1.6950 or maybe even the 1.6923 support level might be visited over the next day or two. ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is a forex broker, registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm and licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). For information, disclaimer and risk warning visit Forex Circles

July 30 - August 5, 2014

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

No honeymoon for Indonesia’s Jokowi Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics In the next few days Indonesia’s Constitutional Court will rule on a challenge mounted against Joko Widodo’s victory in this month’s presidential election. All the indications are that the court will dismiss the complaint filed on Friday by defeated candidate Prabowo Subianto, who alleges massive electoral fraud. Yet if the court does throw out Prabowo’s challenge for lack of evidence as expected, Joko’s difficulties will not be over. In all likelihood, they will only just be starting. When he is sworn in on October 20, Jokowi, as the new president-elect is universally known, will immediately have to tackle one of the most sensitive topics in Indonesia’s political economy: fuel subsidies. Although he pledged in his campaign to eliminate subsidies entirely over the next four years, this is easier said than done. Past fuel

price hikes have fomented immense discontent, and in 1998 triggered the unrest that led to the overthrow of President Suharto. Although several political parties that supported Prabowo’s candidacy are now likely to switch their allegiance to Jokowi, the extra support will by no means guarantee the new president’s policy an easy passage. In his ten years in office, outgoing president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono failed to achieve a consensus on the matter, even though his administration commanded the support of a grand “rainbow coalition” in parliament. With the government’s deficit threatening to breach its legal cap at 3% of GDP, reducing the fiscal burden of fuel subsidies is becoming increasingly urgent. Artificially low prices have boosted domestic fuel demand even as they have cut the incentive for upstream exploration and production. As a result, Indonesia-once a major oil exporter-has become increasingly reliant on imports of refined fuels. That dependency has not only exacerbated the external deficit. With the rupiah down 15% against the US dollar over

the last 12 months, the extra cost of the subsidy programme has also put the government’s finances under severe pressure. By delivering on his promise to curb subsidies Jokowi will not only alleviate Indonesia’s twin deficits, he will also signal to investors that his government has the momentum to overcome even the most daunting political obstacles. However, reform is the art of the possible, and much backroom dealing and compromise will be needed to get the legislature to work with the government

rather than against it. Here, the experience of Jusuf Kalla, Jokowi’s running mate and the vice president during Yudhoyono’s first term in office, will be crucial in building support across party lines. Kalla’s party, Golkar, the second largest in parliament, backed Prabowo for president, but is now likely to switch its support to Jokowi. There are no quick fixes for an economy that is just past the peak of its business cycle and which faces stiff external headwinds as the China-driven resource boom fades. Jokowi’s plan to lift economic growth to 7%-a pace not seen since before the Asian Financial Crisisdepends on enhancing productivity through increased private sector investment in infrastructure and manufacturing. Cutting red tape and fostering competition in an economy where the line between business and politics is often blurred will be a tall order, but Jokowi’s track record as mayor of Jakarta is encouraging. As a result, the long term prospects for Indonesia remain favourable, even though the short term cyclical headwinds make the situation seem bleak.

Playing emerging Asia’s new high The second pillar-growth-poses little threat to emerging Asia. As we detailed in a previous article “The Case For (Some) Emerging Markets”, although the ‘triple merit’ boom of the last decade will not be repeated, the new normal for emerging markets will still be nominal US dollar growth rates of 7-8%, and potentially even higher in Asia. Indeed, Asia’s earnings per share growth beats that of other emerging regions over the past year and compares well with US EPS growth, despite the impact of tapering fears. Even so, investors remain cautious about acknowledging the earnings prospects of Asian companies. Their concerns rest mainly on the suspicion that regional earnings are a mirage created by illusory Chinese bank profits. However in reality, away from the financial sector, EPS have grown decently in China over recent years. Investors also fear that the earnings of non-Chinese companies will be held down by disinflationary pressures emanating from China. This is a valid concern. Chinese producer prices have been in decline for more than two years, reflecting competitive pricing by Chinese producers as capacity utilisation remains low, and China’s sluggish demand growth. Against this backdrop, anyone who competes with or sells to China has limited bargaining power. The good news is that our preferred leading indicator of China’s PPI, an equally-weighted index of oil, metal and food prices, shows that prices should soon stop falling and may pick up. In that case, the longawaited bounce in Asian exports promised by developed world business surveys should start to materialise. The message is supported by Asian PMIs which in aggregate point to a brighter outlook for the coming months.

Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics Some 18 months after US stocks regained the ground lost in the 2008-09 crisis, emerging Asia has finally made a new high. Last Thursday, the MSCI emerging Asia US dollar total return index closed above its 2007 peak for the first time, having risen 10% year-to-date. That makes emerging Asia the best performing major regional market in the world so far in 2014. If you invest equally in the countries in the index’s universe, your gains are even better: up 15%, with little volatility. After such a stellar performance, it is time to step back and ask whether the rally is sustainable. Faced with such a question we always return to our contention that a bull market rests on three pillars: valuations, growth and monetary conditions. So where does emerging Asia sit? After the recent rally, Asian valuations no longer scream “Buy!” but neither are they excessively stretched. The headline index valuation is still below its long term mean, but on an equally-weighted basis, markets look fairly valued. The low headline number reflects investors’ skepticism towards Chinese banks, whose potential problems are no secret. If anything, the valuation picture in emerging Asia is best characterised by its widening dispersion. Among the industry groups classified by GICS, those with valuations in the lowest tenth percentile are cheap by historical standards, while the top tenth percentile are approaching new highs.

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

www.marcuardheritage.com

Interest Rates Base Rates

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0.20 0.53 0.14 0.12 0.01

0.23 0.56 0.18 0.13 0.02

0.33 0.72 0.26 0.18 0.07

0.56 1.07 0.44 0.34 0.20

USD GBP EUR JPY

0.70 1.34 0.33 0.17 0.04

1.16 1.69 0.40 0.18 0.08

1.54 1.95 0.50 0.20 0.15

1.82 2.13 0.63 0.25 0.25

2.22 2.40 0.91 0.39 0.53

2.59 2.67 1.32 0.65 0.91

CHF

Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates

CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

1 USD

1 EUR 1.3434

0.7444

Opening Rates

1 GBP

1 CHF

100 JPY

1.6968

1.1056

0.9810

1.2631

0.8230

0.7302

0.5893

0.7917

0.9045

1.2151

1.5348

101.94

136.95

172.97

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B YR G BP BGN C ZK DKK EEK E UR GEL H UF L VL L TL MTL M DL N OK PLN RON R UB S EK CHF U AH

10270 1.6968 1.4557 20.45 72 5.5506 11.64 68 1.3434 1 .741 231.03 0.523 14 2.5679 0.3196 1 3.94 6.2247 3.0914 3.2725 35.725 6.8334 0.9045 1 2.13

A u s t r a l i a n D o l la r * C a n a d i an Do l l a r H ong K ong Dol l ar In d i a n R u p ee Ja p a n ese Y en K ore an Wo n N e w Z e la n d D o l l a r * S i n g a p o re D o l l a r

AU D CA D HK D I NR JP Y KRW N ZD SGD

0.9398 1.0808 7.75 6 0.06 101.94 1023. 94 1 .175 1.2413

B a h r a i n D in a r E g y p t i a n P o un d I r a n i a n R ia l I s ra e li S h e k e l J o r d a n ia n D i n a r K u w a it D i n a r L e b a ne s e P o u n d Om ani Ri al Qat ar Ri al S a u d i Ar a b i a n R i y a l S o u t h A f r ic a n R a n d U . A. E . D ir h a m

BHD EGP IRR ILS J OD KWD L BP OMR Q AR SA R ZAR AED

0.3770 7.1496 25480.00 3.4290 0.7080 0.2828 1511. 00 0.3850 3.6408 3.7503 10.60 87 3.6728

A ze rb ai j a n i a n M an a t K a za k h s t a n T e n g e Tu r ki s h L i r a

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E U R O PE AN

B e l a r us s i an R u b l e Br i t i sh P ou n d * B u l ga r i a n L ev C z e c h K o ru n a D a n i s h K r o ne E ston i an K r oon E uro * G e o r g i a n La r i H u n g a ri a n F o r in t L a t v ia n La t s L i t h ua n i a n L i t a s M a lt e s e P o u n d * M o ld a v a n L e u N or w egi a n K r on e P o l i s h Z lo t y R o ma n i a n L eu R u s s ia n R o u b l e S w e d is h K r o na S w i s s F ra n c U k r a i n ia n H r y v n i a

A M E R I C AS & P AC I F I C

M I D D LE E A S T & AF R I C A

The Financial Markets

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The greatest uncertainty is the monetary pillar. On one hand, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are biased towards easing. On the other, the Fed is moving towards tightening, while prospects for domestically-driven liquidity expansion are limited considering emerging Asia’s corporate debt load. With valuations in the sectors that benefited most from low global interest rates looking stretched, now may be an opportune time to shift out of liquidity plays like the Philippines, Malaysia, utilities and high yield stocks, and towards growth plays like Korean and Taiwanese exporters and other cyclicals.

0.6516

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1.6968 1.3434 101.94 0.9045

Last Week %Change 1.7069 1.3485 101.54 0.9011

+0.59 +0.38 +0.39 +0.38

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* U S D p e r Na ti o n a l C u r r e n cy

0.7823 183.54 2.1062

July 30 - August 5, 2014

20 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

India’s Chinese dream By Lee Jong-Wha In recent years, China and India have both emerged as global economic superpowers, with China leading the way. But, with Chinese growth slowing and the need for structural change becoming increasingly acute, will the economic-reform efforts of India’s new prime minister, Narendra Modi, enable the country to catch up? Since the 1980s, China has experienced unprecedented economic growth, fueled by abundant low-cost labour, high saving and investment rates, substantial market reforms, outward-oriented policies, and prudent macroeconomic management. Its leaders now hope to achieve high-income status by developing more technologically sophisticated industries.India’s economic performance has been less remarkable. Economic growth began to accelerate dramatically in the early 1990s, owing to trade liberalisation and other economic reforms. Then reforms stalled, the fiscal and currentaccount deficits soared, and annual GDP growth fell to 4-5%. As a result, China has pulled ahead, with per capita income last year standing at $11,850 – more than double India’s $5,350. The question now is whether Modi’s push for faster growth can narrow the income gap in the coming decades. The most important factor working in India’s favour is its “demographic dividend.” In China, population aging and low fertility rates are already causing the prime working-age population, people aged 15-59, to decline. From 2015-2040, this group is expected to shrink by more than 115 mln. Meanwhile, India’s prime working-age population will increase by 190 mln. But favourable demographics alone will not bring about the kind of growth that has made China the world’s second-largest economy. India’s leaders must develop a comprehensive plan to eliminate barriers to economic competitiveness, expand employment opportunities in manufacturing, and improve

workers’ education and skills. As it stands, India ranks 60th in the world for economic competitiveness – much lower than China, which, at 29th, is closing in on high-income countries like South Korea (25th) and France (23rd). The reasons for this are not difficult to discern: India performs poorly on the fundamental drivers of long-term economic prosperity. Indeed, despite steady improvements, public health and education levels remain low (102nd worldwide). Moreover, the lack of adequate transport, communication, and energy infrastructure (85th) is undermining India’s productivity growth. And India lags behind China in the efficiency of its product and labour markets (ranking 85th and 99th, respectively). Only by addressing these shortcomings can India attract sufficient investment and boost economic growth. At the same time, India should expand labor-intensive manufacturing, thereby creating employment opportunities for its growing pool of workers. Given that manufacturing contributes only 15% of India’s total output, compared to 31% in China, there is considerable room for growth. In a sense, India has the advantage of being able to learn from China. China transformed its agrarian economy by building a strong, labour-intensive industrial base, shifting workers from agriculture to manufacturing and construction, and improving productivity across all sectors. Today, the agricultural sector accounts for only one-third of total employment in China, compared to one-half in India. India’s structural transformation and sustainable growth will hinge on its efforts to build a flexible labor market, centred on the easing of outdated and complicated employment laws. The legal protections of workers in India’s formal sector exceed those of most developed countries, as well as China, with mandated requirements rising as the number of employees increases. As Jagdish Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya have pointed out, excessive labour-market regulations deter Indian entrepreneurs from employing unskilled workers and developing labour-intensive manufacturing, implying that the Indian government should redouble its reform efforts in this area. Equally important, Indian workers – especially young people

– need opportunities to upgrade their skills continuously. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that, of the potential global oversupply of 90 mln low-skilled workers in 2020, 27 mln will be in India. Meanwhile, the country will face a shortage of 13 mln medium-skilled workers. Despite India’s educational expansion, especially at the secondary and tertiary levels, its system of higher education, including technical and vocational education and training, remains inadequate. Though India’s public vocational education and training systems are well institutionalised, they lack the scale, curriculum, financing, and incentives needed to prepare young workers to meet the demands of rapid globalisation and technological advancement. The good news is that Modi seems committed to boosting India’s competitiveness by improving its business climate. For example, he has already announced measures to promote foreign direct investment in insurance, defense, and telecommunications, including higher infrastructure spending and new tax incentives for savings and investment. India’s government will also sustain its predecessors’ efforts to strengthen vocational education and skills training. What Modi’s plan lacks is a strong focus on expanding India’s labour-intensive industries. That, together with the planned reforms, would enable India to seize the opportunities that arise with favorable demographics and achieve Chinesestyle growth. Lee Jong-Wha, Professor of Economics and Director of the Asiatic Research Institute at Korea University, was a senior adviser for international economic affairs to former President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

China’s subprime risks It is now widely accepted that the recent global financial crisis was actually a balance-sheet crisis. Long periods of negative interest rates facilitated the unsustainable financing of asset purchases, with high-risk mortgages weakening national balance sheets. When liquidity in the key interbank markets dried up, the fragilities were exposed – with devastating consequences. Today, the rapid expansion of Chinese financial institutions’ balance sheets – which grew by 92% from 2007 to 2011, alongside 78% nominal GDP growth – is fueling predictions that the country will soon experience its own subprime meltdown. Is there any merit to such forecasts? The first step in assessing China’s financial vulnerability is to distinguish a solvency crisis, which can occur when firms lack sufficient capital to withstand an asset-price meltdown, from a liquidity crisis. During the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s, some countries suffered foreignexchange crises, in which devaluation and high real interest rates de-capitalised banks and enterprises, owing to the lack of sufficient reserves to repay foreign-exchange debts. In the case of Japan’s asset-price collapse in 1989, and again in the United States in 2008, bank recapitalization and central-bank liquidity support restored market confidence. The recently released Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) National Balance Sheet Report suggests that China is unlikely to undergo a foreign-exchange or national insolvency crisis. At the end of 2011, the central government’s net assets amounted to CNY87 trln ($14 trln), or 192% of GDP, of which CNY70 trln comprised equity in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Moreover, at the end of last year, China’s net foreignexchange position totaled $2 trln – 21% of GDP – with gross foreign-exchange reserves totaling just under $4 trln. The concern is China’s rapidly increasing domestic debt, which currently stands at 215% of GDP. Since 2008, SOEs and

so-called local-government financing platforms have been using loans to fund massive fixed-asset investments, while private-sector actors have been borrowing – often from the shadow-banking sector – to finance investment in real-estate development. This excessive dependence on credit stems from the lack of adequate funding and the relative underdevelopment of China’s equity markets, with market capitalisation amounting to only 23% of GDP, compared to 148% of GDP in the US. The debt held by non-financial enterprises amounts to 113% of GDP in China, compared to 72% in the US and 99% in Japan. But, given that the largest enterprises are either stateowned or local-government entities, their debts are essentially domestic sovereign obligations. With China’s total government debt/GDP ratio amounting to only 53% – much less than America’s 80% and Japan’s 226% – there is sufficient space to undertake debt-equity swaps to tackle the internal-debt problem. Of course, China’s leaders will also need to pursue major fiscal reforms, including improved revenue-sharing between central and local governments. In the longer term, the authorities must put in place stricter regulations to ensure that local-government infrastructure investments are sustainable and do not depend excessively on revenue from land sales. In the interim, the burden of adjustment will fall largely on monetary policy, which will be particularly challenging given the structural “tightness” in liquidity in the more productive sectors. From 2007 to 2011, China’s money supply increased by 116%, whereas its foreign-exchange reserves grew by 180%. The excess was mopped up through statutory reserve requirements amounting to as much as 20% of bank deposits. With the official banking system thus constrained, it allocated the remaining credit to large enterprises and those with sufficient collateral, resulting in an uneven distribution of

By Andrew Sheng and XiaoGeng

loans across regions and sectors. As a result, large enterprises – mostly SOEs, which enjoy considerable financial subsidies and liquidity – accounted for 43% of total bank loans in 2011; small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), which face financial repression, including higher borrowing costs and tight liquidity, accounted for only 27%. This highlights two fundamental structural imperatives. First, large SOEs and local governments must be discouraged from over-investing, which undermines the rate of return. Second, more capital must be channeled toward SMEs and faster-growing regions, which are more likely to generate jobs and innovation. In other words, interest-rate reforms must be pursued alongside capital-market reforms that boost access to credit by the more productive sectors. China cannot complete its transformation from an export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption and services unless value creation through innovation exceeds value destruction from excess capacity. In short, despite a strong national balance sheet and ample central-bank liquidity, China is confronting a localized subprime problem, owing partly to high reserve requirements. One promising move is the central bank’s recent release of CNY1 trln in liquidity through direct lending to the China Development Bank for the reconstruction of shanty towns, fulfilling the need for socially inclusive investment. Unlike the US Federal Reserve, it has not purchased subprime mortgages. The key to success will be to manage the sequence of liquidity injections and interest-rate reforms so that the effort to address local subprime debts does not trigger asset-price deflation, while reducing financial repression that cuts off funding to more productive sectors and regions. If it manages to get these structural reforms right, China – and the rest of the world – will be able to avoid the consequences of a hard economic landing. Andrew Sheng is Distinguished Fellow of the Fung Global Institute and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

July 30 - August 5, 2014

financialmirror.com | WORLD MARKETS | 21

After the Dollar It is symbolic that the recent BRICS summit in Fortaleza, Brazil, took place exactly seven decades after the Bretton Woods Conference that created the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The upshot of the BRICS meeting was the announcement of the New Development Bank, which will mobilise resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects, and a Contingent Reserve Arrangement to provide liquidity through currency swaps. The Bretton Woods Conference marked one of history’s greatest examples of international economic cooperation. And, while no one can say yet whether the BRICS’ initiatives will succeed, they represent a major challenge to the Bretton Woods institutions, which should respond. Rethinking the role of the US dollar in the international monetary system is a case in point. One key feature of the Bretton Woods system was that countries would tie their exchange rates to the US dollar. While the system was effectively eliminated in 1971, the US dollar’s central role in the international monetary system has remained intact – a reality that many countries are increasingly unwilling to accept. Dissatisfaction with the dollar’s role as the dominant global reserve currency is not new. In the 1960s, French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing famously condemned the “exorbitant privilege” that the dollar’s status bestowed upon the United States. The issue is not merely one of fairness. According to the Belgian economist Robert Triffin, an international monetary system based on a national currency is inherently unstable, owing to the resulting tensions among the inevitably divergent interests of the issuing country and the international system as a whole. Triffin issued his warning more than 50 years ago, but it has

recently gained traction, as China’s rise has made the world increasingly disinclined to tolerate the instability caused by a dollar-denominated system. The solution, however, lies not in replacing the dollar with the renminbi, but in strengthening the role of the world’s only truly global currency: the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. Following the creation of SDRs in 1969, IMF members committed to make them “the principle reserve asset in the international monetary system,” as stated in the Articles of Agreement. But the peculiar way in which SDRs were adopted limited their usefulness. For starters, the separation of the IMF’s SDR account from its general account made it impossible to use SDRs to finance IMF lending. Furthermore, though countries accrue interest on their holdings of SDRs, they have to pay interest on the allocations they receive. In other words, SDRs are both an asset and a liability, functioning like a guaranteed credit line for the holder – a sort of unconditional overdraft facility. Nonetheless, SDRs have proved to be useful. After initial allocations in 1970-1972, more were issued to increase global liquidity during major international crises: in 1979-1981, in 1997, and, in particular, in 2009, when the largest issue – the equivalent of $250 bln – was made. While developed countries, including the US and the United Kingdom, have drawn on their allocations, the major users have been developing and, in particular, low-income countries. In fact, this is the only way in which developing countries (China aside) share in the creation of international money. Several estimates indicate that, given the additional demand for reserves, the world could absorb annual allocations of $200300 bln or even more. This has prompted many – including People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan; the United Nations-backed Stiglitz Commission; the Palais Royal Initiative, led by former IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus; and

By Jose Antonio Ocampo

the Triffin International Foundation – to call for changes to the international monetary system. In 1979, the IMF economist Jacques Polak, who had been part of the Dutch delegation at the Bretton Woods conference, outlined a plan for doing just that. His recommendations include, first and foremost, making all of the IMF’s operations in SDRs, which would require ending the separation of the IMF’s SDR and general accounts. The simplest way to fulfill this vision would be to allocate SDRs as a full reserve asset, which countries could either use or deposit in their IMF accounts. The IMF would use those deposits to finance its lending operations, rather than having to rely on quota allocations or “arrangements to borrow” from members. Other provisions could be added. To address developing countries’ high currency demands, while enhancing their role in the creation of international money, a formula could be created to give them a larger share in SDR allocations than they now receive. The private use of SDRs could also be encouraged, though that would likely be met with strong opposition from countries currently issuing international reserve currencies, especially the US. Keeping SDRs as pure “central-bank money” would eliminate such opposition, enabling them to complement and stabilize the current system, rather than upend it. Just as the Bretton Woods framework restored order to the global economy after WWII, a new monetary framework, underpinned by a truly international currency, could strengthen much-needed economic and financial stability. Everyone – even the US – would benefit from that. José Antonio Ocampo, a professor at Columbia University, has served as United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs and as Minister of Finance of Colombia. He is the co-author (with Luis Bértola) of The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

The other Nigeria By Paul Collier and Acha Leke Nigeria has been getting a lot of bad press lately, owing largely to the militant Islamist group Boko Haram’s abduction of more than 200 schoolgirls in April, part of a brutal campaign of kidnappings, bombings, and murder. But, while these developments certainly merit international concern, they should not be allowed to obscure Nigeria’s recent achievements – or spur the outside world to turn its back on the country. What is lost in most discussions about Nigeria today is the strong economic record that it has established over the last decade. In fact, a recent year-long study of the country by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) showed that, over the next 15 years, Nigeria has the potential to become a major global economy. With roughly 170 mln inhabitants, Nigeria has Africa’s largest population. But it has only recently been acknowledged as having the continent’s largest economy – 26th in the world – following the release of “rebased” data putting GDP at $510 bln last year. MGI estimates that, in 2013-2030, Nigeria could expand its economy by more than 6% annually, with its GDP exceeding $1.6 trln – moving it into the global top 20. Moreover, if Nigeria’s leaders work to ensure that growth is inclusive, an estimated 30 mln people could escape poverty. The problem is that Nigeria remains subject to outdated assumptions, which are limiting its prospects, especially among foreign companies and investors. For example, many believe that Nigeria is a petro-economy, wholly at the mercy of the world oil market. But the resources sector accounts for only 14% of GDP – meaning that, while oil production remains a critical source of revenue and exports, the Nigerian economy is far more diverse than many assume. A related myth is that Nigeria’s economic growth is unstable, with large and unpredictable shifts in performance from year to year. In fact, as Nigeria has diversified its economy and detached public-spending plans from current oil prices (part of a 2004 budget reform), it has become increasingly stable, both economically and fiscally. Indeed, in recent years (2010-13, in “re-based” terms), GDP has grown by a steady 6-

7%, owing more to rising productivity than to favorable demographics. Finally, there is a general misunderstanding about the Nigerian economy’s evolution. Despite widespread poverty and low (though improving) productivity in almost all industries outside of the resources sector, Nigeria has a rapidly growing consumer class that will play an increasingly important role in driving growth. By 2030, more than 34 mln households, with about 160 mln people, are likely to be earning more than $7,500 annually, making them aspiring consumers. This implies a potential rise in consumption from $388 bln annually to $1.4 trln – a prospect that is already attracting investments by multinational consumer-goods producers and retailers. Nigeria’s prospects are enhanced further by its strategic location, which will enable it to take advantage of booming demand across Africa and other parts of the developing world. Add to that a large and growing population and an entrepreneurial spirit, and the future looks bright. In order to unleash this potential and ensure that the next decade of growth brings sharp reductions in poverty, Nigeria’s leaders must pursue reforms aimed at increasing productivity, raising incomes, and delivering essential services like health care and education more efficiently. For example, to increase productivity and incomes in the agricultural sector, the government could pursue land-title reform aimed at opening more farmland without deforestation; expand the use of fertiliser and mechanised equipment; and support a shift to more profitable crops. Moreover, improvements in distribution and marketing would allow farmers to keep more of the proceeds from the sale of their crops. In urban areas, productivity suffers from a high degree of informal employment, sometimes even by major corporations. This keeps too many Nigerians in low-skill, low-paying jobs and deprives the economy of the dynamism that competitive small and medium-size enterprises create. The spate of Internet startups that have emerged in Nigeria demonstrates that the skills are there, and tapping Nigeria’s diaspora can augment that talent pool. To make it easier to do business in Nigeria, the government also will need to streamline processes for registering and running a legal business and, together with aid agencies and the private sector, increase investment in infrastructure. It will also need to intensify its fight against endemic corruption,

which represents a tax on all businesses. Finally, to promote inclusive growth – essential to relieving human suffering and mitigating social and political tensions – Nigeria must improve public-service delivery dramatically. The fact that Nigeria lags behind countries that spend comparable amounts on public services proves that it has scope to improve. All that is needed to ensure that assistance – from seed subsidies to immunisation – reaches those who need it most, regardless of where they live in the country, is a strong commitment from Nigeria’s leaders to build more effective and transparent government agencies. Nigerians do not need sympathy or even outrage from the global community. What they need is support and encouragement. Only with stable and inclusive growth can Nigeria escape the clutches of brutal forces like Boko Haram and give its citizens the security and prosperity that they deserve. Paul Collier is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University, where he is also Professorial Fellow of St. Antony’s College and Co-Director of the Center for the Study of African Economies. Acha Leke is a director of McKinsey & Company and a member of the MGI Council, Africa. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org

July 30 - August 5, 2014

22 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

GE spins out Synchrony in a whirl of 22 IPOs IPO WEEK AHEAD By Paul Ausick, 24/7 Wall St.com We have counted 22 initial public offerings (IPOs) on the schedule for this week, including just two holdovers from last week. Of the dozen companies that actually made it to the markets last week, Friday’s IPO of El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LOCO) led the charge, going out at $15 and closing the day at $24.03, up 60%. This week’s most closely watched IPO will be General Electric Co.’s (NYSE: GE) spin-off of its North American financial business into a new company called Synchrony Financial. GE plans to offer 125 mln shares in Synchrony at an IPO price of $23 to $26. The IPO shares represent a stake of 15% in the company and is expected to raise $3 bln in gross proceeds, valuing the new company at $20 bln. Joint book-running managers are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Securities. The underwriters have an option on an additional 18.75 mln shares. Shares are expected to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker symbol SYF. A second large IPO is planned by medical delivery technology firm Catalent Inc. which plans to offer 42.5 mln shares of common stock in a price range of $19 to $22. The company expects to raise $871 mln with shares expected to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the NYSE under the ticker symbol CTLT. Another IPO looking at a big payday is Mobileye N.V., which designs and develops software and other technologies for advanced driver assistance systems, one of the major building blocks of driverless cars, or as some now call it “autonomous driving.” The Israelbased company plans to offer 27.8 mln shares in an IPO price range of $17 to $19, raising a total of nearly $500 mln. The shares are set to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the NYSE under the ticker symbol MBLY. Transocean Partners LLC is a spin-off from Switzerland-based Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG). The company plans to sell 17.5 mln common units in a price range of $19 to $21, raising $350 mln. Shares are expected to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the NYSE under the ticker symbol RIGP. The company will be domiciled in Scotland. London-based VTTI Energy Partners L.P. plans to sell 17.5 mln common units in an IPO range of $19 to $21 to raise about $350 mln. The company is among the world’s largest energy terminals businesses and is majority owned by global commodity trader

Vitol and Malaysia International Shipping Corp. Common units in the master limited partnership (MLP) are expected to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the NYSE under the ticker symbol VTTI. Here is a rundown of the other IPOs on tap next week: Zosano Pharma Corp. is a clinical stage specialty pharmaceutical company that has developed a proprietary transdermal microneedle patch system to deliver its existing drugs through the skin. The company plans to offer 6.4 mln shares in a price range of $10-12 and expects to raise $70 mln. The pricing and trading dates are not set. The stock will trade on the Nasdaq (ticker symbol: ZSAN). ContraFect Corp. is a biotech company developing treatments for drug-resistant infectious diseases. It plans to issue 5.5 mln units consisting of one share of common stock, one Class A warrant to purchase one additional share of common stock, and one Class B warrant to purchase one-half additional share of common stock. The expected price range is $5-6, raising $30 mln. The stock will trade on the Nasdaq (CFRX, CFRXW, CFRXZ and CFRXU) and are expected to price on Tuesday and begin trading Wednesday. Lantheus Holdings Inc. makes imaging agents for medical diagnostics. The company plans to offer 9.3 mln shares in a price range of $12-15, raising $125 mln. The shares are expected to price on Tuesday and begin trading Wednesday on the Nasdaq (LNTH). Westlake Chemical Partners L.P. is a spinoff MLP from Westlake Chemical Corp. (NYSE: WLK) that will acquire and develop ethylene production facilities and assets. The company plans to offer 11.3 mln common units in a price range of $19-21, raising $225 mln. Shares are expected to price on Tuesday and begin trading Wednesday on the NYSE (WLKP). Avalanche Biotechnologies Inc. is a clinical stage biotech developing therapies for ophthalmic diseases. It plans to offer 5.4 mln shares in a price range of $13-15, raising $76 mln. Shares are scheduled to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq (AAVL). HealthEquity Inc. provides a software platform that helps consumers make health care savings and spending decisions. It plans to offer 9.1 mln shares in an IPO price range of $10-12, raising $100 mln. Shares are scheduled to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq (HQY). Macrocure Ltd. is an Israel-based regenerative medicine company that plans to offer 5.4 mln shares in a price range of $1315, raising $75 mln. Shares are set to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq (MCUR). Marinus Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a clinical stage biopharma company developing

GE’s Synchrony spin-off will be this week’s most closely watched IPO to raise $3 bln neuropsychiatric therapies which plans to offer 4 mln shares in a price range of $12-14, raising $52 mln. The stock is set to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq (MRNS). Tobira Therapeutics Inc. is a clinical stage biopharma developing therapies for liver disease and HIV, among others. It plans to offer 4.6 mln shares in a price range of $1214, raising $60 mln. Shares are scheduled to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq (TBRA). Vascular Biogenics Ltd. is an Israel-based clinical stage biopharma company working on treatments for cancer and other diseases which plans to sell 5.4 mln shares in a price range of $13-15, raising $76 mln. The shares are set to price on Wednesday and begin trading Thursday on the Nasdaq (VBLX). Auris Medical Holding AG is a Switzerland-based clinical-stage biopharma focused on treatment of inner ear disorders that plans to sell 6.9 mln shares in a price range of $10-12 to raise $76 mln. The shares are set to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq (EARS). Bio Blast Pharma Ltd. is an Israel-based development stage biopharma working on rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. It plans to sell 3.3 mln shares in a price range of $1113, raising $40 mln. The shares are scheduled to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq (ORPN). FCB Financial Holdings Inc. is a bank holding company that owns a single bank with 54 branches in Florida. It plans to sell 8.8 mln shares in a price range of $24-27, raising $223 mln. The shares are expected to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday

on the NYSE (FCB). Loxo Oncology Inc. is developing cancer treatments for genetically defined patient populations and plans to sell 4.4 mln shares in a price range of $12-14, raising $57 mln. The shares are set to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq (LOXO). Sirva Inc. provides mobility services to multinational corporations and government institutions. It plans to sell 11.6 mln shares in an IPO price range of $15-17, raising $186 mln. The shares are expected to price on Thursday and begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq (SRVA). Delayed from last week was Mapi-Pharma Ltd., a development stage pharma company that is engaged in developing high barrier to entry and high value-added generic drugs. The Israel-based firm plans to offer 2.3 mln shares in an IPO price of $8 to raise $18 mln. The shares are expected to price and begin trading this week on the Nasdaq (MAPI). The per share price was cut from an original range of $13 to $15, and the number of shares was cut back by about 400,000. Also delayed from last week is Spark Energy Inc., an independent retail natural gas and electricity services provider. The company plans to offer 3 mln shares in a price range of $19-21, raising a total of $60 mln. Shares are set to price on Monday and begin trading Tuesday on the Nasdaq (SPKE). There were no changes to the terms of this IPO. One of last week’s scheduled IPOs has been postponed. Atara Biotherapeutics Inc. is a clinical stage biopharma firm that is developing novel therapeutics for muscle wasting conditions and oncology.

Goldman Sachs cautious on small-caps Investors who prefer to invest in small-cap stocks instead of Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index stocks may have a difficult time through the rest of 2014. That is the take of a report from Goldman Sachs, signalling that the gains in small-cap stocks will be less than in large-cap stocks. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin raised his price target for the S&P 500 in the past week, up to 2,050 from 1,900. It sounded more bullish, but the reality is that this is just very limited upside. Kostin’s new call implies upside of roughly 4% for small-cap stocks, versus roughly 6% upside in large caps. Kostin believes the Russell 2000 has gotten pricier than the large-cap indexes. The ratio that he represents is 21.3 times forward price-to-earnings ratios.

Another issue that was pointed out is that the average is less than 16 times forward earnings over the past five years. Much of the Goldman Sachs call refers to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s recent comments that certain aspects of small caps had gotten pricey. Yellen did not specify any company names outside of selecting a brief reference to tech (social) and biotech. Another concern brought up by Kostin is that smallcap stocks saw a deeper correction earlier this year and are now up only 1% so far this year. Goldman Sachs can move markets when it makes major changes. That is not really up for debate. Still, its bearish-tobullish bias change was very late - and it is still calling for upside.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

financialmirror.com | GREECE | 23

Parliament budget office sees recovery ahead In its latest quarterly report published on Monday, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) argues that the economy could grow by more than expected this year but that a series of concerns, including bank stress tests, unpaid taxes, lack of structural reforms and stagnant exports could yet weigh on the recovery. The PBO estimates that the economic recovery this year may be stronger than the officially anticipated 0.6%, reaching 0.9 to 1% thanks largely to tourism. This forecast is also supported by the evolution of consumer confidence and retail sales, according to the economic policy site MacroPolis.gr. Nevertheless, the PBO underscores that the key issue is the viability of the economic expansion, which is prerequisite for the achievement of the high primary surpluses envisaged in the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, particularly for the 2016 and beyond. Tourism and consumption depend on several conjunctural and external factors, which are necessary but not sufficient conditions for viable growth, the PBO adds It notes that the unemployment rate has started showing a downward, yet weak, trend. Nevertheless, it reiterates that tackling unemployment will take many years even if Greece shows growth rates similar to those of the previous 20 years, when 45,000 new jobs were created each year. On Greek banks, the PBO underscores two key challenges: the first relates to the mounting NPL ratio, which according to the IMF is one of the biggest in the world, higher than that of other countries with systemic crises. The second involves banks’ capital ratios, which have been boosted by the capital increases of 8.3 bln euros and now stand at the high end in the EU. Nevertheless, they may not prove adequate in the upcoming ECB stress tests, according to the PBO, mainly because it could use different assumptions to those of the Bank of Greece in the tests it conducted last year. The report highlights that the uncertainty surrounding the future stress tests in conjunction to heighted NPLs and full

implementation of Basel III capital requirements make Greek banks reluctant to provide liquidity to the private sector and thus decelerates the country’s growth prospects. Exports remain stagnant, despite initial estimates of a rise based on the improvement of Greek corporates’ competitiveness. The PBO stresses that although Greece managed to increase its competitiveness (related to labour cost), it did not carry out the necessary structural reforms in the product markets and the public sector operations. Although Greece managed to show a current account (C/A) surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2013, this is mainly attributed to an improvement in the services’ balances, on higher than expected tourism and shipping receipts, and a drop in domestic demand and imports. The report highlights that a viable growth model requires the economy to become exportoriented. In contrast, the PBO notes that foreign direct investments (FDI) in other countries, such as Ireland, Spain and Portugal which also faced serious economic problems, have increased. The privatisation processes underway and the overall improvement of economic climate are expected, according to the PBO, to contribute to an increase in FDI. On unpaid tax debt, which reached 6.23 bln euros in the first half of the year and 67.25 bln including year-end 2013 legacy debt, the PBO estimates it will accelerate in the coming months due to the depletion of taxpayers’ ability to pay more taxes. In addition, the delay in the payments of arrears to the private sector and the creation of new arrears could end up with a stock at 8.74 bln euros similar to that posted in December 2012. The PBO also identifies that the key reforms that will impact the fiscal adjustment are related to the social security and justice sectors. On the inadequacy of the judicial system in particular, the PBO reports stresses that it results in a reduction of private investments, FDIs, entrepreneurship and international trade, while it increases corruption.

The MS Turanor PlanetSolar, considered to be the biggest solarpowered catamaran in the world, passing the Corinth canal, as part of the TerraSubmersa GreekSwiss archaeological expedition to explore and map prehistoric sites near Argolida, probably one of the oldest sunken sites in Europe.

The Greek economy should grow 0.7% this year, pulling clear of a six-year recession, but its soaring unemployment rate is likely to drop less than hoped, the economic think tank IOBE said. The research institute had earlier predicted a small expansion for the year, without setting a forecast. Its GDP growth projection is broadly in line with the EU and IMF estimate of 0.6%. The recession has driven unemployment to the highest in Europe, leaving nearly three times as many Greeks jobless as in 2008 when the downturn began. IOBE, which had previously expected joblessness to drop to 26% this year, said it now saw the rate easing to 26.7%, citing a wave of public sector layoffs demanded by the Troika of international lenders. Household consumption is expected to grow by 1% this year as hiring picks up during the summer tourism season, IOBE said. Greece expects to beat its target of 13 bln euros in revenues from tourism this year, after record arrivals and earnings last year.

5th privatisation chief in four years The government has appointed a management professor to head the HRADF privatisations agency, the fifth to take charge of the agency since it was set up in 2010 to sell off state assets as required by the country’s international bailout terms. Emmanuel Kondylis, a business administration professor, will be the new chairman of HRADF, which has fallen behind on privatisation targets. Kondylis, who has held top managerial posts at several companies, replaces Constantinos Maniatopoulos who stepped down just nine months into the job. Also, Paschalis Bouhoris, a former banker, was nominated to replace HRADF’s current chief executive Ioannis Emiris. The fragile coalition government, faced with public pressure and accusations of selling off national assets, has so far concluded privatisation deals worth 4.9 bln euros, raising 2.69 bln euros in cash. The sum is far below an original target of 22 bln euros for the 2010-2013 period, but reasons include limited investor interest, as well as regulatory and legal hurdles. The government has slashed this year’s privatisation target to 1.5 bln euros from 3.6 bln after a plan to sell state natural gas company DEPA stumbled, but managed to clinch its biggest privatisation deal, a 915mln-euro property lease at the site of the former Athens airport, Hellinikon.

NBG gets EC green light for rescue plan

ECB stress tests should include banks’ restructuring plans Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis reportedly told his EU colleagues that he wants the European Central Bank’s stress tests on its four systemic banks in October to take account of their new restructuring plans rather than being based on last year’s balance sheet data alone. The ECB is reviewing the asset valuations of the euro zone’s 128 most important lenders to assess their ability to withstand future crises and National Bank of Greece, Piraeus, Eurobank and Alpha will be among them. The results will be announced in October, before the ECB takes over as the eurozone’s banking regulator on November 4. At issue for Athens is whether its big banks may face a new call to fill significant capital holes, since elements of the restructuring plans are still some way off being implemented, despite the banks saying they are content with

IOBE: economy to grow 0.7%, better than EU/IMF estimate of 0.6%

their capital raising so far this year. The four banks have already undergone recapitalisations after two successive stress tests were conducted by the Bank of Greece. NBG, Piraeus and Alpha are majority-owned by the HFSF bank rescue fund, which pumped 25.5 bln euros into the four banks and spent another 14.4 bln euros to wind down others deemed non-viable. Earlier this year, the four banks raised 8.3 bln euros between them through equity issues, more than filling the capital deficiencies identified in the last Bank of Greece test which amounted to a combined shortfall of 6.4 bln euros. The head of the HFSF rescue fund, which has a remaining cushion of 11.5 bln euros, expects any capital shortfalls in the ECB check-up to be manageable.

The European Commission has approved a plan that will see the National Bank of Greece proceed with a restructuring which includes reducing its stake in Turkey’s Finansbank. NBG was one of Greece’s big four banks that were rescued with state aid during the country’s debt crisis. The European Commission then reviewed NBG’s business plan to see if it was in line with EU state aid rules. “The measures already implemented and those envisaged in the future will enable the bank to fully restore its long-term viability, while limiting the distortions of competition brought about by the state aid granted,” the Commission said. NBG, majority owned by the bank rescue fund HFSF, has begun to implement salary cuts, branch closures and other cost-cutting moves, including an early retirement plan. The restructuring plan also envisages NBG cutting its holding in Finansbank to strengthen its capital position. NBG has almost full control of Finansbank but will keep a majority stake. Finansbank has been a steady cash cow for NBG helping boost its first quarter profits after it contributed 63 mln euros or 35% of the group’s net earnings. The Commission also said that a relatively limited downsizing of NBG would be enough to limit any distortions to competition and did not ask the group to shrink its Greek banking activities. Last week, the Commission also approved the restructuring plan of Piraeus Bank, the country’s secondbiggest lender by assets after NBG.

July 30 - August 5, 2014

24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com

Week ahead full of high-risk data from the US Markets Report by Forextime Ltd By Jameel Ahmad, Chief Market Analyst at FXTM

This is one of those rare weeks of the year where the financial markets await high risk economic data from the United States on a near daily basis. Consequently, all of the major currency pairs will be at risk of volatility and we can also expect additional movement in commodities, such as gold. On Tuesday afternoon, the latest Consumer Confidence reading is scheduled to be announced and with consumer expenditure equating to the largest component of the US economy, this can have a direct impact on the currency markets. Recently, there had been some concern over consumer expenditure releases, such as Advance Retail Sales missing expectations and a weaker than expected Consumer Confidence reading (especially one day before US GDP) could inspire some risk appetite back into the currency markets. Euro buyers would welcome the opportunity to

regain some of last week’s 100 pip losses against the USD, with upcoming resistance levels at 1.3460 and 1.3483. Similarly, buyers of GBPUSD will also be looking for an opportunity to recover losses after the pair unexpectedly declined for eight successive days for the first time since May 2012. The GBPUSD losses suffered last week were encouraged by investors seeking the USD as a safe-haven while geographical tensions controlled the financial markets attention, rather than due to a lack of confidence in the British economy. GBPUSD resistance can currently be found at 1.7000 and 1.7013. Wednesday has the potential to become the most volatile trading day of the year. From the US alone, we expect the latest ADP Employment Change, 2nd Quarter GDP estimate and FOMC decision. In addition, Germany’s latest CPI (inflation) figures are also announced. Is regards the ADP employment change, the US employment sector has made remarkable progress over the past couple of months. Following last week’s Initial Jobless Claims dropping to an 8-year low, optimism is steadily increasing for this

week’s non-farm payroll to impress. What’s interesting is that just 15 minutes after the ADP employment change, the 2nd quarter GDP estimate is released. Spectators will be keeping a very close eye on how much of the first quarter GDP contraction was recovered in the second quarter and if the figure does not impress, investors will likely look towards gold. If this occurs, current gold resistance levels can be found at 1308, 1321 and 1340. On Thursday, the latest EU CPI figures are released. According to Bloomberg, EU CPI remained at a stagnant 0.5% for the third consecutive month in July. If this is confirmed, it would likely reopen the debate for the ECB to introduce quantitative easing and we can expect euro softness as a result. Due to the volatility the EURUSD will likely have already experienced before Thursday, more suitable opportunities could be found in some of the minor currency pairs. For example, the EURGBP has rebounded since hitting a two-year low (0.7873) and confirmation of low EU CPI levels would likely encourage bearish movement in this pair. Current support can be found at 0.7903 and

0.7888. Similarly, EURAUD support can be found around 1.4228 and 1.4205. The week will conclude with the latest US Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. As mentioned already, the employment sector has made remarkable progress as of late, with the US not only recovering all of the 8.5 mln jobs lost during the recession, but also adding over 200,000 jobs for five consecutive months to their economy for the first time in nearly 15 years. In fact, the improving employment sector is in some ways emerging as the corner stone of the US economic recovery. If this Wednesday’s ADP employment change suggests that Friday’s NFP will be impressive but Wednesday’s second quarter GDP estimate halts a USD rally, an impressive NFP on Friday would provide the USD with the opportunity to recover losses. ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is a forex broker registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm and licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). For more information, disclaimer and risk warning visit www.ForexCircles.com

Fighting the Fed By Martin Feldstein The US Federal Reserve is battling with members of Congress over a proposed law, the Federal Reserve Accountability and Transparency Act, that would require the Fed to use a formal rule to guide monetary policy. The Fed fears that the law would limit its independence, while the bill’s proponents argue that it would produce more predictable growth with low inflation. Who is right? In order to understand the conflict, it is useful to compare the Fed’s independence with that of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. In Britain, the BoE has “instrument independence” but not “target independence.” The head of the Treasury sets a goal for the inflation rate and leaves it to the BoE to decide which policies will achieve that goal. If the target is missed by more than one percentage point on either side, the BoE’s governor must send an open letter to the head of the Treasury explaining why (and what the Bank proposes to do about it). By contrast, the Maastricht Treaty tasked the ECB with maintaining “price stability,” but left it free to provide its own operational definition. The ECB defined price stability to be annual inflation of less than but close to 2%. Given the structure of the European Monetary Union, there is no government oversight of the ECB, which thus has both “target independence” and “instrument independence,” though restrictions preclude specific policies. The Fed is “independent,” but only in a very special sense: vis-à-vis the government’s executive branch. While the US president can instruct administrative agencies like the Commerce Department or the Treasury Department to take specific

actions, the administration cannot tell the Fed how to manage interest rates, reserve requirements, or any other aspects of monetary policy. But, though the Fed is independent of the White House, it is not independent of Congress. The Fed was created by Congressional legislation that now stipulates a “dual mandate” of price stability and maximum employment. It is up to the Fed to formulate operational definitions of these goals and the policies it will pursue to achieve them. The proposed legislation would affect both “target” and “instrument” independence. The Fed decided to define price stability as a “two percent annual inflation over the medium term of the price index of consumer expenditures.” For the past 12 months, that rate of increase has been about 1.5%. While full employment has not been defined, many economists believe it is equivalent to an unemployment rate of about 5.5%. The most recent rate was 6.1%. Reflecting the fear that the Fed’s current policy of sustained low interest rates will lead to higher inflation, the law would require the Fed to adopt a formal procedure for setting its key short-term interest rate, the “federal funds rate.” More specifically, the law suggests a specific interest-rate rule (the Reference Policy Rule) while giving the Fed the opportunity to adopt a different rule if it explains to Congress why it prefers the alternative. The Reference Policy Rule is essentially the rule first proposed in 1993 by John Taylor of Stanford University, based on his statistical estimate of what the Fed appeared to have been doing under Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan during a period of both low inflation and low unemployment. It states that the federal funds rate should be 2% plus the current inflation rate plus one-half of the difference between current and target inflation and one-half of the percentage difference between current and full-employment GDP. All of this implies that if the economy is at full employment and targeted inflation,

the federal funds rate should equal 2% plus the rate of inflation. It should be higher if the inflation rate is above the target level and lower if current GDP is less than the full-employment level. Given uncertainty about the level of fullemployment GDP, this rule still leaves the Fed substantial discretion. The Fed could argue that the gap between current and fullemployment GDP is larger than the 6.1% unemployment rate implies, owing to the large number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time employment and the sharp decline in the labor force participation rate. If the GDP gap is 4%, as a recent Congressional Budget Office estimate implied, the Taylor rule would indicate an optimal federal funds rate of about 1.25% (2 + 1.5 – 0.25 – 2), compared to the current rate of only 0.1%. While the federal funds rate may be heading to 1% over the next 12 or 18 months, by then the narrowing GDP gap will imply an even higher Taylor-rule interest rate. And, complicating things further, given US banks’ vast holdings of excess reserves as a result of the Fed’s bond-buying policies (quantitative easing), the federal funds rate is no longer the key policy rate that it once was. Instead, the Fed will be focusing on the interest rate on excess reserves. The proposed legislation is full of

excessive and impossible requirements, and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives may not be able to pass it, even in modified form. Even if it does, it will not get through the Democraticcontrolled Senate. But if the Republicans hold a Senate majority after the next election, some form of legislation requiring a monetary-policy rule could land on the president’s desk. He or she might veto it, but a Republican president after the 2016 election might not. The Fed no doubt fears that if the principle of requiring a formal rule is accepted, Congress could tighten the requirement, forcing a more restrictive monetary policy. That is why the new Fed chair, Janet Yellen, forcefully opposed such legislation in recent congressional testimony. One thing is certain: The bill will put pressure on the Fed to pay more attention to inflation, avoiding a persistent rate above its own 2% target. Otherwise, the Fed’s operational independence could be restricted, forcing it to focus its policies more sharply on its inflation mandate. Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. © Project Syndicate, 2014.