FinancialMirror Issue No. 1105
America and its balanced current account
Apple earnings boosted by over 39 mln iPhones
By Jeffrey Frankel- PAGE 21
WALL STREET - PAGE 24
Halloumi: The Great White Hope of Cyprus Exports to top €90 mln – PDO by ‘end of 2014’ - PAGE 3
“Lower tax rates to increase revenues” Economist says reform will bring back lost money, MoA still “painful” PAGE 4
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October 22 - 28, 2014
October 22 - 28, 2014
2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com
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Cyprus scored its first victory in a while when a Greek court this week ruled in favour of protecting our traditional halloumi cheese, both as a trade name and as a product. This has been a longoverdue success that should not have come as a surprise, considering that the “halloumi dossier” has been going from one office to the other for nearly two decades, challenging dairy fakes around the world, in particular within the EU, where rules are supposed to be adhered to. Perhaps the government will now wake up to the reality that not everything spins around the magical world of the services industry and the financial sector, and soon energy, and that equal attention should be afforded to the real economy, with the recently-adopted word of ‘sustainable’ now being used more often. Tourism is a vital part of our economy, but as long as the island’s main strategy-determining body, the Cyprus Tourism Organisation, acts like any other part of our corrupt public service, then there is very little hope of the island ever emulating the consistent rise in arrivals recorded in Greece in the past few years. Shipping has been the most neglected sector of our economy and despite the fact that this is a
steady employer generating sustainable revenues, both in taxes and in output, we still don’t have a Deputy Minister for Maritime Affairs, one of six posts that the allegedly ‘pro-business’ administration had promised us more than a year ago. And this bring us to the agriculture sector, the most ostracised group of our economy and society, where the forces-that-be forget that more than half of our population is descended from a village or rural community, very often having grown up in poverty or at least simplicity, with true values and little need for material rewards. Perhaps this is what separates a villager from a peasant, and we have a lot of the latter nowadays. With the wine industry flourishing, fruit and veg exporters driving truckloads to the airports’ cargo hangars every day of the week and our dairy and farm producers enjoying a new-found boom in exports, this is a sector that we should be promoting overseas, in addition to our sunny and sandy beaches and the advantages of setting up a business on the island. After all, if our repeat tourists keep on coming back because of the culture and history, the food and the wine, we should uphold this sector as the true jewel of our economy and seek to promote our products as much at home as overseas. Let’s be proud of our ‘Made in Cyprus’ brand and let’s show it.
THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO
ERM entry, Stelios and CSE bargains
Cyprus was getting closer to join the ERM2, precursor to adopting the euro, while Stelios was back in town to promote new ventures and foreign investors were snapping up equities on the CSE, the Financial Mirror reported in issue 590, on October 13, 2004. ERM entry: The Council of Ministers is expected to meet in the next 15 days to decide whether Cyprus is ready to make a formal application to join ERM2 (the Exchange Rate Mechanism), the first major step required to adopt the euro. Countries must remain within the ERM for at least two years before adopting the single currency and must meet the other four stringent “Maastricht criteria” which cover budget deficit, public
20 YEARS AGO
Arab B ank’s 10th, SBC arrives, Offitec opens The Jordanian-owned Arab Bank was marking its tenth anniversary in the Cypriot market, while Swiss Bank Corporation opened its first rep office on the island and consumers were bracing for the latest in technology at the Offitec 94 show, the Cyprus Financial Mirror reported in issue 81, on October 19, 1994. Arab Bank: Chairman Abdul Majeed Shoman arrived in Cyprus to mark the tenth anniversary of the opening of its branch operations in Cyprus and met with President Clerides, Archbishop Chrysostomos and
debt management, interest rates and inflation. Cyprus’ large budget deficit, which hit more than 6% of GDP in 2003, was the main reason why it was not among the first three new member states which joined ERM2 in June, namely, Slovenia, Estonia and Lithuania. Stelios ventures: EasyGroup founder Stelios Haji-Ioannou, in Cyprus last week to inaugurate the first outlet of his easyCar franchise in Limassol, plans to return with other easy franchises, such as easyMoney, specialising in credit cards business, and easy4men, a joint venture with Boots specialising in men’s toiletries. CSE bargains: Foreign investors have been spotted buying up bargains on the CSE, at a time when confidence is at an all-time low and the CSE All-Share Index is scraping fresh lows. Greek investors, led by the Proton Group, who had previously accumulated a 4.9% stake in Interfund, is now believed to have purchased a 3% stake in Cytrustees. Demetra Investments has also
been the target of foreign investors, with Deutsche Bank taking a 0.88% stake, while Eureko Group is resuming talks for a controlling stake in Universal Life. Restrictions lifted: Both EU and non-EU companies can now buy an entire Cypriot bank, hotel, insurance company, farm or tourist agency without any restrictions and without having to invest a minimum amount, following the full lifting of inward investment restrictions on October 1. However, brokers do not expect the big three banks to fall into foreign hands just yet. House prices drop: Prices of homes fell by 1.9% in September, according to the BuySell Home Price Index, bringing the index to 108.89. The average selling price of a house is now CP 84,834. After rising for two years, the monthly fall could be attributable to the 1% hike in interests in April. But the Central Bank Governor said the rapid increase in property prices at about 15% so far this year, is not sustainable and urged buyers to be cautious.
Central Bank Governor Afxentis Afxentiou. Arab Bank now has 18 branches and announced plans to build its new CYP 5 mln headquarters in Nicosia on the corner of Santa Roza and Themistocles Dervis streets. SBC debut: The official inauguration of Swiss Bank Corporation’s rep office in Nicosia heralds a new chapter for Cyprus and its bid to become the supreme financial centre in the region. This was SBC’s third branch office so far and is now represented in 140 countries. Offitec 94: The biggest and most successful specialised trade exhibition held every two years will now become an annual event due to growing demand and a thirst for new technology. Computer imports alone have generated CYP 44 mln in three years and the
software industry, as well as office equipment manufacturers and importers are looking toward a permanent date for purchasing and to place new orders. 95 budget: The 1995 state budgets tabled in parliament provide for consolidated spending of CYP 1.40 bln and revenue of CYP 921 mln, leaving a deficit of CYP 478 mln. The biggest share of the expenditure goes towards public sector wages at 51.5%, followed by interest on public debt at 17.7% and 1.2% on social expenditure. Larnaca airport: The new international airport at Larnaca, expected to be completed by the year 2025 will cost CYP 232 mln and will eventually be able to accommodate 12 mln passengers a year, Communications Minister Adamos Adamou told a parliamentary committee hearing.
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October 22 - 28, 2014
financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3
Halloumi: the great white hope of Cyprus E x p o r t s t o t o p €9 0 m l n – P D O b y “ e n d o f 2 0 1 4 ”
Halloumi exports are expected to reach about 85 to 90 mln euros this year and a Greek court ruling this week that reaffirms its name and provenance will further boost overseas sales of the single best selling Cypriot product, the agriculture minister said. The court of first instance in the city of Veroia ruled on Monday against a Greek dairy producer who had been manufacturing halloumi, the traditional Cypriot goat’s cheese that has a Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) pending at the European Commission. The court ordered Filotas Bellas & Son to cease making the ‘Vermion halloumi’, confiscated the entire production and slapped a fine on the company that also has to pay legal expenses. The Cyprus Ministry of Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism has mounted a further 30 legal cases, mostly within the European Union, as the PDO validation has not yet been secured from Brussels. Agriculture Minister Nicos Kouyialis said on Tuesday that the PDO certificate may be ready by the end of the year and that combined with this week’s the court ruling, local dairy industries will get a timely boost, as consumers will opt for and only find the truly Cyprus-made halloumi. “This (court ruling) is a message to everyone who abuses the ‘halloumi’ trade name. I hope that will secure the PDO very soon and will be able to avoid all these problems that arise on occasion by companies that want to use this name,” Kouyialis said. He said that halloumi is a product that is rapidly gaining popularity in the European market, has great commercial value and many cheesemakers want to use the trade name. “This is where the issue of its protection lies, which is at a very advanced stage and I hope that se will have good news from the European Commission by the end of the year,” the minister said, adding that this will also benefit Cypriot dairy producers. A ministry source confirmed that the PDO certificate is expected “by the end of the year”. He explained that the EU has some 2,000 PDOs for native European products, but that only 200 of those have been accepted or verified in third countries. Cyprus will have to secure the European PDO first and then include ‘halloumi’ in all future EU trade talks with other countries, including the US which is fighting a bitter battle for cheese and wine products, mostly with France and Italy. The ministry official said that since 2011, when exports stood at 55 mln euros, of which 42 mln to EU markets and 13 mln to third countries, exports rose 11% to 61.5 mln in 2012
Halloumi, the white brine-cured Cyprus cheese containing chopped mint, is a semihard cheese made from a mixture of goat’s and sheep’s milk, and more recently includes a blend of cow’s milk. It has a high melting point and so can easily be fried until brown without melting or grilled, making it popular among celebrity TV chefs and major retail stores, such as Tesco’s in the U.K. It originated in Cyprus and was initially made during the Medieval Byzantine period. It is stored in its natural juices with salt-water and can keep for up to a year if frozen below -18 °C and defrosted to +4 °C before sale. It is often garnished with mint to add to the taste. Traditionally, the mint leaves were used as a preservative, this practice arising from the serendipitous discovery that halloumi kept better and was fresher and more flavoursome when wrapped with mint leaves. In accordance with this tradition, many packages of halloumi contain fragments of mint leaves on the surface of the cheese. and up 20% to an estimated 77 mln in 2013. At this rate, Financial Mirror estimates place 2014 exports at 85-90 mln euros. The biggest market for Cypriot halloumi is the U.K., that accounted for 25.4 mln euros last year, followed by Sweden (11.3 mln), Germany (6.7 mln) and Australia (5.2 mln). The Russian embargo on EU and Cyprus produce is not expected to affect halloumi, as exports of the traditional Cypriot cheese are estimated at about 150,000 euros a year. “The good thing is that Russians consume a lot of our halloumi when they are on holiday in Cyprus,” the ministry official said. Local consumption is estimated at EUR 27 mln a year.
Commercial protection In July, Agriculture Minister Kouyialis announced that Cyprus had filed an application to the European Commission to secure a PDO certificate for halloumi, paving the way for the commercial protection of the brand. He had initially said that the Commission would need 14 months to review and grant its final approval, but the recent embargo on all EU products has allowed him to push to expedite the decision. Kouyialis said that according to the application, halloumi will have to be made of at least 50% goat or sheep milk or a mixture of both, with or without cow’s milk. In a bid to overcome the difficulties facing dairy producers and to allow time for compliance with the new standards, the minister said he approved a ten-year transitional period allowing for the use of 20% of goat and sheep milk until its gradual increase to 50%. He also said he abolished the previous decree that established a ratio of goat and sheep milk of 23% for
the period of July-November and 25% for the period of December-June, due mainly to the shortage of milk. The Minister had said that until the Commission’s final reply, the name ‘halloumi’ or the Arabic and Turkish ‘hellim’ will be protected as no other country can trade cheese under this or any similar name while no other EU member-state can submit a competitive application for the use of halloumi as a trademark. “I believe that the agriculture and farming sectors will reach new dimensions and I am certain that all producers will benefit and no one stands to lose,” he added. Kouyialis said the Ministry has drafted measures to facilitate farmers to adapt to the new terms, as these emerge from the establishment of halloumi as PDO. The Ministry plans to launch a programme for the creation of new and the modernisation of older farm units, which will provide funding of 40% and up to 60%, respectively, which may reach up to EUR 800,000 and help create up to 800 new jobs in agriculture, animal breeding, research and fisheries. Halloumi has been registered as a Cypriot protected product in the US since the 1990s and challenged in a Danish court, when a dairy wanted to produce halloumi cheese based primarily on cow’s milk. Kouyialis asked that the evaluation of Cyprus’ application by the competent services of the European Commission take place as soon as possible, stressing the importance of validation of the product to help the island’s agriculture and livestock sectors, and enhance the country’s economy. The minister had also said that Turkish Cypriots, who call their version of the same cheese as “hellim”, should not worry, noting that solutions can be found with regards to performing the necessary controls on the product, once registered, by an independent body.
October 22 - 28, 2014
4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com
“Lower tax rates to increase revenues”
E cono mis t s ays re form will bring back lost mone y, MoA still “pa infu l”
Andreas Theophanous, a vocal economist who very often challenges the establishment, is calling for an immediate reduction in taxes in order to get the economy up and running again. “The most important way to improve the indicators of private and public debt is to increase our GDP once again. And the only way to do that is by reforming the taxation system. Taxes must come down across the board,” said Professor Theophanous, head of the Centre of European International Studies at the University of Nicosia. Presenting a review on the “Effective way to resolve non-performing loans” co-authored by Christophoros Christophorou and Kyriakos Georgiou, Theophanous said that loan holders cannot or are not willing to cover their loan payments. “What happened in March 2013 was a tragic development of our greed of years past and the recession will stay with us in the years to come.” An outspoken opponent of the economic adjustment programme imposed by the international lenders, Theophanous said, “I don’t believe in the Troika. I only believe in God.” He said that even at the eleventh hour, it is possible to revise many of the conditions of the bailout plan and listed 20 ways to improve revenue earning and abandon the Troika programme, “that has created more problems than solving them.” Unfortunately, he said, this and many other proposals by the Centre or any other think tank keep on falling on deaf ears. Asked by the Financial Mirror if his suggestions had been reviewed by the National Council for the Economy, Theophanous laughed. Admitting that the government’s proposed bills on foreclosures is necessary, he said that “this alone will not save the situation.”
NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT “It is impossible to repay any private or public debt under conditions of continued and deep recession. What we need is for the government, the politicians and society to work towards a comprehensive holistic approach for the economy. We need a new social contract. “While our study is focused on NPLs, that account for 50% of all loans, it is vital that there be effective measures for the real economy. At this rate, even with a down revision of the GDP (by the European Commission and the statistics service), our debt management is still not viable,” Theophanous said. Kyriakos Georgiou said that Cyprus has already repaid 9 to 13 bln to international lenders, while receiving only 5.9 bln from the 10 bln euro bailout plan. “I don’t know how much of the remainder 4 bln euros we will need, but the administration does not seem to be too worried to cover its immediate needs as it seems confident of its current revenue earning plans. “We are not that confident,” Georgiou said, adding that the current tax regime encourages tax evasion, not revenue collection. The study suggests that Cyprus, at its present state, can seek a multifaceted support programme, similar to the Marshall Plan, and relaxation of the memorandum of agreement contracted with the Troika. Theophanous said that there should be efforts to renegotiate the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) afforded to Laiki and subsequently burdened on to Bank of Cyprus, as well as a comprehensive plan to manage the NPLs and the introduction of banking arbitration.
LOWER LIQUIDITY RATIOS Liquidity must return to the market and generous incentives to help reduce loans repayments, he said, adding that banks could also argue for a lower liquidity ratio, as this will come out of the stress tests, expected at the end of this week. One source of fresh revenue is foreign direct investments, with specific incentives provided to potential investors, including tax breaks to CEOs and financial advisors, while a red carpet service is mandatory to deal with labour and migration issues. However, Theophanous also admitted that the “one stop shop” declared by present and past administrations has never materialised. Tourism, and reviving Cyprus as an education and medical centre must be encouraged to bring in fresh funds, he said. “I am confident that tax reform will lead to positive earnings, but also clamp down on tax evasion,” Theophanous said, explaining that the study’s proposals include lowering the
higher income tax bracket from 35% to 30%, VAT from 19 to 15% and the reduced VAT from 9 to 7%, corporation tax from 12.5 to 10% and tax on interest from deposits from 30% to 9.5%. “Who in his right mind would deposit money if the interest is going to be taxed? That is why we need to revive trust in the banking system and encourage deposits once again.” Theophanous added that contributions to the Social Insurance Fund could also be reduced from 7.8% to the previous 6.8% and a reduction of property tax to zero for real estate worth up to 150,000 euros, a 50 euro tax for properties worth 150,000 to 200,000 and a gradual rate for properties above that, ranging from 0.0005% to 0.0125%. However, Theophanous concluded that while wages must be kept at present levels and not to reduce the public sector salaries any further in order to maintain a level of purchasing power, the civil service workforce must be reduced, while economies of scale achieved by the merging of public service.
Icarus, Daedalus and the IMF report on Cyprus Officials at the International Monetary Fund, the third arm of the Troika of international lenders, must have mixed up their mythology when the former IMF Head of Mission to Cyprus likened the island’s economy to a crash-and-burn situation during a review of the island’s state of the economy. The IMF executive board met on Monday to discuss the 2014 Article IV Consultation with Cyprus, the annual check up by the IMF of a country’s economy. The consultation looks at a country’s economy broadly and provides policy recommendations going forward. In the case of countries with financial assistance, such as Cyprus, this takes place on a less frequent basis. Cyprus’s last Article IV consultation took place in 2011. The preliminary conclusions of the 2014 consultation were published on June 30. According to the Cyprus News Agency, during the board meeting to discuss the 2014 Article IV Consultation with Cyprus, Delia Velculescu, former chief of the IMF mission for Cyprus, likened Cyprus to Icarus, the mythological figure, who flew too close to the sun, burnt his wings, fell in the sea and drowned. Cyprus’ Dutch representative to the board Menno Snel replied that contrary to Icarus Cyprus has managed to
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float. He also likened Icarus’ father, Daedalus, to the IMF, noting that in Icarus’ case he did not heed his father’s advice, while in Cyprus’ case, the IMF did not do as much as it should to avert the crisis. Velculescu is being replaced by American
Mark Lewis. The 2014 Article IV Consultation focuses more on the risks ahead and on what needs to be done rather than on progress achieved so far. It presents an account of how the crisis came about and refers to the policies implemented as part of the adjustment programme, as well as what should be done. Board members are said to have also discussed the pending matter of the legislative framework on foreclosures which as they pointed out needs to be settled in order for Cyprus’ banking sector’s non performing loans to be managed and for the adjustment programme to continue on track. The IMF’s mission on the 6th review of Cyprus’ adjustment programme is not expected to travel to Cyprus before the beginning of 2015. However, a small technical team will visit Cyprus around November 10 to review pending or other matters related to prior actions. Cyprus has so far has received five tranches amounting to 5.77 bln from the EU and the IMF from the 10 bln bailout package. The 6th Programme tranche of 433 mln euros was not disbursed in September due to non-compliance in introducing legislation on foreclosures as demanded by the Troika.
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October 22 - 28, 2014
financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 5
Wilbur Ross to seek $1-2 bln for new private equity fund W L Ross “com ing to market a mid hi storical ly lo w interest rates”
WL Ross & Co., run by 76-year-old turnaround financier and incoming Bank of Cyprus boss Wilbur Ross, is seeking $1 bln to $2 bln for its next private-equity fund, according to news reports. The business news service Bloomberg said the target for Ross’ sixth main fund would exceed the $640 mln the New Yorkbased firm completed raising in 2012 while falling short of the $4 bln it gathered for its fourth fund in 2007. In marketing his prior fund, Ross, whose firm oversees more than $7 bln in client assets, faced questions from investors about succession plans and whether he would continue to guide the New York-based firm he founded in 2000. WL Ross eventually rounded up $2.2 bln in capital, which included the main fund, $560 mln in separate accounts and about $1 bln from clients investing alongside the fund who weren’t charged annual management fees. In March, WL Ross named long-time partner Stephen Toy and Greg Stoeckle as co-leaders of the firm with Ross remaining as chairman and adding the title of Chief Strategy Officer. Stoeckle joined from Invesco Ltd., the Atlanta-based money manager that acquired WL Ross in 2006. “With Stephen leading the investment side of our business and Greg in charge of all the other aspects, I will now have more time to devote to developing and implementing the macro strategies that have always been central to our portfolio decisions,” Ross said
at the time. The firm’s 2012 fund was marked at 1.6 times cost and had a 24% net internal rate of return as of June 30. The 2007 pool had a 1.5 times multiple and a 9.9% net return rate, according to Bloomberg. Ross, who heads a group of investors pumping about 400 mln euros ($509 mln) into Bank of Cyprus as part of the EUR 1.1 bln capital increase to strengthen the lender, is widely expected to control the board after the November 20 shareholders’ meeting, where he will exert his 19% voting power to install Deutsche Bank’s former CEO Josef Ackermann as Chairman. In an interview with the Financial Mirror, Ross had said that he wanted to take Bank of Cyprus “from resuscitation to growth” setting his sights on the country’s future potential in the sectors of energy and privatisations. “I do not strip assets or liquidate companies. I try to breathe life back into them,” he had said in the interview. Bloomberg said WL Ross “is coming to market amid historically low interest rates and a paucity of defaults that has made it difficult for distressed-debt focused funds to find deals in the U.S.” Oaktree Capital Group LLC, the world’s largest distressed-debt investor, is seeking to raise a $3 bln fund along with a $7 bln reserve pool it would deploy if the economic recovery falters and defaults rise, three people familiar with the matter said last
month. Ross, a former restructuring adviser at global investment bank Rothschild Inc., started WL Ross with $440 mln in committed capital. Previous funds amassed
distressed holdings in steel, coal, textiles and auto parts. He made it onto Forbes’ August 2014 list of the world’s billionaires, with a net worth of $2.9 bln.
Skill set needed to make Cyprus a strong fund jurisdiction financial instruments, and perform the activities of collective portfolio management and risk management for collective investment schemes (either UCITS or AIFs).
By George Theocharides Cyprus International Institute of Management
Despite the current financial crisis and recession that we are experiencing, one industry that stands out, is resilient and is growing is Financial Services. Despite the reputational damage that we suffered following the events of March 2013, many of the benefits that made Cyprus an attractive investment destination are still there and not lost. What are these benefits? The strategic location, the fact that we are an EU-member state and thus fully aligned with the EU legislative framework as regards financial supervision, highlyskilled and educated workforce providing financial and professional services, as well as a “benevolent” tax system (despite the recent enforced increase, still the lowest corporate tax rate in the EU at 12.5%, zero capital gains tax, and no withholding tax on dividends and interest distributed, as well as double tax treaties with around 50 countries). An exciting and promising area within the financial services spectrum is the funds industry. Significant progress to develop and promote the sector has been made on this front in recent years from the various parties involved (the regulators and the government authorities, as well as the private sector). However, more needs to be done and one important area we should improve that could provide us with a competitive advantage is to make sure industry participants and service providers have the necessary skill set in order to make Cyprus a strong funds jurisdiction. If we want to administer but also manage these funds that could register with our Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), general but also specialised knowledge is paramount for industry participants.
CLEAR UNDERSTANDING To my mind, they should have a clear understanding of the principles of finance – the concept of the time value of money, risk and return, the structure of the global fund industry and
ACADEMIC QUALIFICATIONS
industry participants, the various asset classes, the way risk is measured and managed, and the valuation of different types of securities, among others. Another area that they should study relates to the concept of ethics in financial services. This has been increasingly important these days across the world, given the recent financial crises that we have experienced. They should also command basic knowledge of economics (at the micro and macro level), the understanding and use of statistical techniques (that includes the ability to use computer programmes to analyse data), as well as the main accounting principles (reading financial statements, and constructing the relevant financial ratios). Beyond these basic concepts, they should possess more specialised knowledge. One area is the field of portfolio/ asset/ wealth management. They should understand how a portfolio of various asset classes and securities is constructed, and how its performance is measured. Another area relates to the administration and structuring of a fund, as well as issues related to compliance requirements, anti-money laundering regulations, financial reporting, taxation and legal procedures. In terms of qualifications, market participants should obtain the relevant licenses from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission - CySEC (currently there are two exams offered – the basic and the advanced). These licenses are for individuals engaged in the reception, transmission, and execution of client orders, but also for those who deal on a proprietary basis, manage portfolios, offer investment advice, underwrite
Academic qualifications are important, such as relevant Undergraduate and Postgraduate degrees. At CIIM, we recently introduced a Masters degree in Financial Services that aims to address the specific needs of the industry and provide candidates with the skill set necessary to succeed in their careers. Apart from academic degrees, it’s also important to have professional qualifications. The certificates offered by the Chartered Institute of Securities and Investments (CISI) are such appropriate qualifications. CISI is the largest and most widely respected professional body for those who work in the securities and investment industry in the UK, but also in a growing number of financial centres around the world. They offer specialised certificates in numerous fields in finance (wealth/investment management, collective investment scheme administration, risk management, among others). Another excellent professional qualification is the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) credential, probably the most respected and recognised investment designation in the world. To become a CFA Charterholder, candidates need to complete the three levels of the programme (exams) plus they will need to have four years of qualified investment work experience. The CFA Society of Cyprus, although still small, is growing fast in numbers and I believe is another professional body that can play a vital role in promoting the fund industry in Cyprus. The Executive Education Department of CIIM offers preparatory seminars for a number of CISI certificates (Risk in Financial Services, Global Securities, Wealth and Investment Management), the CFA Levels I and II, a specialised course on Fund Management, as well as an Advanced Certificate in Fund Administration (awarded in association with the University of Manchester Business School and CLT International). George Theocharides is Associate Professor of Finance and Director of MSc in Financial Services at the Cyprus International Institute of Management (CIIM) www.ciim.ac.cy
October 22 - 28, 2014
6 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com
Laiki, the ECB and the New York Times The bankruptcy and accumulated debts of Laiki Bank were stated view is noted, to the effect that: “such aid (ELA) is the a key element of the Cyprus financial crisis. A recent article responsibility of national central banks…”. This is the (“To Restore Confidence in Economy, A Test of Europe’s position repeatedly mentioned by the ECB, particularly when Bank’s”, October 17) in the New York Times discusses the the more embarrassing details of the bungled “rescue” are stress tests to be implemented by Eurozone banks. In this discussed. However, the official journal of the European connection, the article also Union treaties states: “The looks into the minutes of the national central banks are an European Central Bank integral part of the ECSB and (ECB) relative to the crisis in shall act in accordance with Cyprus and the decisions the guidelines and which brought about the instructions of the ECB” Cyprus International demise of Laiki. (Consolidated Version of the Institute of Management The ECB had been Treaty on European Union, supplying financial aid in the Protocol no.4 , article 14.3, form of Emergency Liquidity Official Journal of the Assistance (ELA) to keep Laiki afloat since 2011. It continued European Union, 26 October 2012). to supply ELA right up to the March 2013 negotiations Still referring to the powers of the national central banks, between Cyprus and the Eurogroup. By that time the The New York Times quotes the ECB as stating: “the (ECB) accumulated debt of Laiki to the European Central Bank had central bank’s governing council retains veto power”. reached a level of 9.4 bln Euros. This level of debt was equal to more than 50% of the country’s GDP, a level of debt which WAS LAIKI SOLVENT? is probably unique in the developed world and which many In early 2012, the ELA debt of Laiki was still manageable. would say was indicative of poor bank regulation. The ECB has repeatedly disclaimed responsibility for the Had the bank been declared insolvent and folded at that time, ELA decision. In the New York Times article, the ECB’s ofen as many believe should have been the case, the subsequent
By Dr. Jim Leontiades
bail-in by the Eurogroup might have been avoided. But it has long been maintained by the then governor of the Cyprus Central Bank, Panicos Demetriades, that Laiki was solvent and hence eligible for ELA. The New York Times article reports that the minutes of the ECB show that Mr. Weidmann, head of Germany’s Bundesbank and a member of the ECB governing council was opposed to extending ELA to Laiki, stating at a December 2012 meeting of the ECB council that: “It was not the governing council’s job to keep afloat banks that were awaiting recapitalisation and were not currently solvent”.
CONCLUSIONS We may conclude that firstly, at least one member of the ECB’s governing council felt that Laiki was not solvent at the time the decision was made to extend ELA and, secondly, that the Europan Central Bank must assume responsibility for the decision to continue giving ELA funds to Laiki beyond any limit which might qualify as prudential bank management. The article cites the statement of an ECB official to the effect that the ECB has changed its procedures so that winding down banks will now be the subject of a “less disruptive process”. We can only hope so – but it is too late for Cyprus.
NYT: Before a Bailout, ECB Minutes Showed Doubts Over Keeping a Cyprus Bank Afloat By Landon Thomas New York Times As the Cypriot economy reeled from the collapse of its second-largest bank in 2013, the European Central Bank faced a thorny question: Should it keep the institution, Cyprus Popular Bank, alive with short-term loans or pull the plug? By many financial measures, the bank was failing. Stung by a disastrous bet on Greek government bonds, Cyprus Popular Bank had been in trouble for the better part of 2012 and depositors were withdrawing their savings in ever larger numbers. It needed cash and fast. Under ECB rules, troubled banks that can no longer raise funds on the open markets are allowed to borrow from their national central bank, which assumes responsibility for this socalled emergency liquidity assistance, or ELA. Still, strict rules govern this process. The bank in question must be solvent. And if the loans surpass 2 bln euros, or $2.56 bln, the ECB reserves the right to refuse additional requests for money. The methodology for valuing the collateral used to secure the credit also has to be disclosed. Fearing possible contagion if the bank failed, the ECB’s governing council, a decision-making arm consisting of 24 members, had approved an emergency loan request by one its members, the Central Bank of Cyprus, in late 2011. As 2013 approached, the short-term loans to Cyprus Popular Bank had grown to EUR 9 bln, about two thirds the size of the Cypriot economy, and Jens Weidmann, the hawkish head of the German Bundesbank, had begun to forcefully argue that this exposure was too large, according to the minutes of governing council meetings. By approving the loans - which were disbursed by the central bank of Cyprus - Mr. Weidmann said that the ECB was violating a core tenet. That rule holds that banks on the verge of failure should not be bailed out with additional loans. “It was not the governing council’s job to keep afloat banks that were awaiting recapitalisation and were not currently solvent,” he said at a meeting in December 2012, according to internal documents from the bank. In a statement, the ECB said the following: The ECB neither provides nor approves emergency liquidity assistance. It is the national central bank, in this case the Central Bank of Cyprus, that provides ELA to an institution that it judges to be solvent at its own risks and under its own terms and conditions. In this specific case, there was full consensus in the governing council on the need to get assurances from the
Central Bank of Cyprus that this bank was solvent. The solvency was confirmed explicitly by the Central Bank of Cyprus, which also confirmed the proper valuation of collateral after an intense dialogue between it and the ECB. The ECB was not the supervisor and fully relied on the assessment of the Central Bank of Cyprus. Therefore to draw conclusions about the ECB’s future banking supervision role on the basis of ELA to Cyprus is tendentious. Responsibility for the loans, though, seemed to blur at times. A close reading of minutes reveals numerous instances in which ECB officials said they would cut off the program if progress was not made by Cyprus in securing an economic rescue program. In March 2013, just a few days before the bailout, the central bank said as much publicly. It stated that loans to Cyprus Popular Bank would not be continued unless an agreement with the International Monetary Fund was reached. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, which release the minutes of rate-setting meetings in a matter of weeks, the ECB decrees that its internal deliberations must be kept under wraps for 30 years. The concern has been that the airing of these discussions would reveal national strains and weaken the ECB’s federal mandate. The New York Times has reviewed governing council minutes dating from May 2012 to January 2013 - just two months before the controversial Cyprus bailout. And these strains, particularly between Germany, an economic powerhouse, and smaller eurozone countries like Cyprus and Greece are frequently laid bare during these meetings, internal documents reveal. Mr. Weidmann, the tough-talking Bundesbank head, had long styled himself as the institution’s bailout scold. The minutes show him sharply opposing ECB-backed rescues of the French-Belgian lender Dexia and smaller banks in Ireland, Greece and Spain. In January 2013, just two months before the Cyprus rescue package, Mr. Weidmann repeated his complaint that the ECB was putting itself at risk in propping up Cyprus Popular Bank — which subsequently changed its name to Laiki Bank. Moreover, Mr. Weidmann said that the value of the collateral posted at the central bank was inflated - which, if true, would allow it to secure more credit. This was a powerful charge as it questioned whether the Cyprus central bank, under its new governor, Panicos Demetriades, was trying to play down the bank’s problems in order to keep it alive. To buttress his claim, Mr. Weidmann told his colleagues that the ECB’s own risk analysts had concluded that the assets that Cyprus Popular had posted at its central bank were overstated
by about EUR 1.3 bln. Mr. Demetriades rejected the claim, according to the minutes, and said that his risk experts had a better understanding of the assets in question than their counterparts in Frankfurt. Christian Noyer, the head of the French central bank, said that he was “very much concerned” by the aggressive way that the Cyprus central bank was valuing the collateral, adding that it “doubled the risk” for the ECB Klaas Knot of the Dutch central bank also chimed in, saying the collateral issue made him feel “very uncomfortable.” “If ELA was provided without adequate collateral, this would be a grave issue,” Mr. Weidmann concluded, according to the minutes, as he pushed for the loans to be withdrawn. Mr. Weidmann asked what the governing council proposed to do about the issue, according to the documents. Not that much, it would turn out. Under a section in the minutes called “solvency information,” the governing council noted that it had received a draft report from the asset management company Pimco that said the bank needed about EUR 10 bln in fresh cash - or about 10 times its capital at the time. There would seem to be little doubt that the bank was finished, but the consensus was to keep the bank alive until an agreement could be reached on a broad rescue program with the Cyprus government. The governing council decided “not to object”– in ECB parlance - to the continuance of the lifeline. Two months later, the bank was finally wound down as part of a bailout of EUR 10 bln euros, financed largely by a haircut imposed on Cypriot deposit holders.
October 22 - 28, 2014
financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7
Russia again by our side By Dr Andrestinos Papadopoulos Ambassador a.h. The statements by the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexey Meshkov and the Spokesman of the Ministry Alexander Lukashevich concerning Turkey’s stated intention to carry out seismic studies in the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) were the object of different interpretations and comments. Some of them were negative, for instance the allusion to “unilateral actions” as referring to the Republic of Cyprus, non-recognition of the right of the Republic of Cyprus to exploit the natural resources of its EEZ, non-reference to Turkey by name, etc. If we look at the texts through legal and diplomatic lenses and not those of political or party expediencies we will understand their real meaning. In the first place, the “unilateral actions and show of force” which are considered unacceptable refer to Turkey. We easily reach
this conclusion from the reference in Lukashevich’s statement to “the situation around the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus”. This EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus is recognised by the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which provides that a coastal state has sovereign rights in its EEZ to explore, develop and preserve the natural resources, whether living or non-living, of the waters superjacent to the seabed and of the seabed and its subsoil (Article 65, subparagraph 1a). Cyprus’s right, therefore, to exploit its natural resources in its EEZ is not questioned by the Russian statements. Finally the non-reference to Turkey by name falls within the framework of the diplomatic practice, according to which you do not put somebody in the corner if you want to influence him. So much for the statements. Moreover, Russia took a tougher step by making a demarche to the Foreign Ministry in Ankara. As a matter of fact, a demarche is stronger than a statement, since in diplomatic practice it is considered as an upgraded action. At the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the Russian Ambassador repeated the known position of Russia, as stated in August 2011 by the same Alexander Lukashevich. Replying to a
question concerning Turkey’s challenges of the right of the Republic of Cyprus to exploit the natural resources of its EEZ, Mr Lukashevich then stressed that “such activities are consistent with international law and the scope of sovereign rights available to the Republic of Cyprus in accordance with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea”. In view of the above, who can deny that Russia stood by our side? It augers well that President Anastasiades
expressed satisfaction at Russia’s reaction and in an interview published in the newspaper “Simerini” on October 12 stressed that “the option of closer relations with the United States is not taken at the expense of our traditional and friendly relations with Russia. On the contrary, and at the European Council we try with realism to warn about the problems and the consequences which will affect not only Russia”. Even in the present climate of sanctions, Russia proved to be a real friend.
Europe’s essential unity By José Manuel Barroso Over the past ten years, the European Union has endured a series of unprecedented crises, the likes of which we are unlikely to see again. But other, no less daunting challenges lie ahead, and we would do well to remember the lessons learned along the way. One lesson is that unity is not an option; it is a condition sine qua non of the EU’s economic prosperity and political relevance. It is remarkable that since 2004, when I became President of the European Commission, the EU’s membership has nearly doubled, from 15 countries then to 28 now. There have been no defections. From 2004 to 2014, we enlarged both the EU and the eurozone. Most important, we have kept Europe united. I fought hard for that unity, particularly when defending, often against the odds, Greece’s continued membership in the eurozone, as well as when arguing against splitting the eurozone, as some people proposed. The Commission remained attentive not only to the dramatic impact of a “Grexit” on Greece, but also to its possible financial, economic, and political cascade effects. Unlike others, we never lost sight of the systemic effects of decisions across the eurozone or the EU. The EU is already an economic and political reality. This requires solidarity and responsibility – in particular, solidarity from the Union’s more prosperous countries and responsibility on the part of those countries in need of reform. The Commission has been equally firm in demanding both. The same logic applies to another core concern that I faced throughout my decade at the Commission: the need to deepen the eurozone while maintaining the integrity of the EU as a whole. This will remain a critical issue in the near future, if only because of the uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom’s status in our Union. Allowing for flexibility while avoiding fragmentation is now a well-established approach within the EU. But it was not always so. Some have long advocated establishing a completely separate institutional framework for the eurozone. I remain convinced that multi-speed European cooperation has become a necessity, but that a multi-tier Europe must be avoided at all costs. While integration must deepen further, especially in the eurozone, this can and should be done in a way that preserves the integrity of Europe’s single market. Fortunately, this logic has been widely accepted, as demonstrated by the decision that
the European Council’s next president, despite being from a country (Poland) that is not yet in the eurozone, will nonetheless preside over eurozone summits. A second lesson we learned is that openness to the world is an asset, not a liability. That thinking – which needs to be reaffirmed and politically supported – underpinned our active trade agenda. Indeed, it put the EU at the forefront of efforts to liberalise and regulate international trade, enabling us to reap the full benefits of globalisation. This is not just about Europe’s economic wealth, but also about its political relevance on the global stage. One presupposes the other, requiring vigorous defense of the EU’s interests and views in bilateral relationships with strategic partners and in multilateral fora, such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organisation, the G-20 and the G-8/G-7. If the EU as a whole engages internationally, it can help to shape the international order. Our current engagement in Ukraine is a case in point, as were our efforts to lead a global response to the 2008-2009 financial crisis, namely by collectively resisting the allure of protectionism. It was on the EU’s initiative that the world acted in a concerted and convincing way by establishing the G-20
Leaders’ Summit, comprising heads of state or government. Since then, the G-20 has become the premier forum for economic policy coordination among its members, giving concrete form to many of the ideas – for example, on a framework for balanced and sustainable growth, on financial regulation and supervision, and on action against tax evasion and fraud – that the EU proposed. The emergence of the G-20 has transformed the global system, and certainly helped to prevent the realisation of worst-case scenarios in the aftermath of the crisis. The third lesson is that making Europe stronger – institutionally, politically, and economically – demands continued reform. Credibly delivering on important EU-level reforms enabled Europe to put the most existential phase of the crisis behind it. The system of economic governance that we put in place guarantees that EU members put their public finances in order, increase their competitiveness, and tackle their macroeconomic imbalances. We created the instruments needed to assist distressed countries, and the ensuing adjustment programmes are delivering results. In short, we seized the momentum of the crisis to provide a structural response to the challenges we faced, in particular by establishing a European banking union. Step by step, despite strong resistance, we have changed the rules that govern financial institutions, the institutions that oversee banking operations, and the mechanisms to coordinate resolution of failed banks. Taken together, the reforms adopted since the start of the crisis have changed the way that Europe’s economies and financial sector are legislated, supervised, and regulated. The framework has been created. Now we need to implement it fully. But we also need to go further in advancing structural reforms at the national level. We can see that the countries that have done the most in this respect now have better economic prospects. We must not relax these efforts. After all, the economic crisis has not yet been fully overcome. We must not take for granted the progress that has been made. Political decisions matter – and mistakes have consequences. At the end of a ten-year rollercoaster ride as Commission President, I can confidently declare that Europe has shown great resilience. We have shown that the forces of integration are stronger than the forces of fragmentation. Despite all of the challenges we had to face – indeed, partly because of them – Europe remains united and open, and is now stronger and better able to face globalisation. José Manuel Barroso is President of the European Commission. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org
October 22 - 28, 2014
8 | NEWS | financialmirror.com
Fiscal deficit below 3% in 2014, says FinMin The island’s fiscal deficit is expected to drop below 3% in this year, which is the EU requirement and to range close to 2.5%, while the forecast by the Troika of international lenders is 4.7% and the IMF 4.4%, Minister of Finance Harris Georgiades said on Friday. Presenting the state budget for 2015 before the parliamentary Committee on Budgetary and Financial Affairs, Georgiades said that public debt will drop below 100% of GDP before 2017. He also said that public debt will climb to 105% in 2014 and it will decline to 103% in 2015. “We expect that public debt will decline below 100% of GDP, while output will register a third continuous year of growth by then,” he said. Georgiades said Eurostat’s GDP revision has assisted in reducing the public debt, adding that under the Finance Ministry’s basic scenario, the public debt is deemed
sustainable and absolutely manageable and will follow a downward trend. He noted that especially if the stress test results, to be announced on October 26, show no capital shortfall for the Cypriot banks or needs below the programme’s EUR 1 bln buffer, there will be no increase in the island’s public debt and the downward trend will continue. At the same time, he noted that the ministry expects a primary balance surplus of 0.5% in 2014 as a result of which the excessive deficit will be corrected two years before the ECOFIN’s recommendation. Georgiades further said that “2014 was a year of stabilisation both for banks and public finances”, adding that it was also a year of restoring market trust to the economy of Cyprus. He expressed the point of view that “2015 will be a year of recovery”.
Caramondani gets new HQ, ready for Ayia Napa marina
Co-op banks profits at €8 85.6 mln in 1H
The Caramondani Group inaugurated their new, state-ofthe-art headquarters in the Industrial Zone of Pera Chorio Nisou and hosted an event to mark the company’s 55 years of activity in major projects, including hotels, hospitals, power stations, desalination units, public buildings and sewage treatment plants. The building was inaugurated by Energy, Commerce, Industry and Tourism Minister Yiorgos Lakkotrypis, who said: “We are especially pleased to see Cypriot companies to achieve their goals, to grow and to extend their operations in Cyprus and abroad, particularly in these difficult times, I do not think there are better indications for the positive prospects of our economy other than the clear message that your Group sends out today”. The Minister also announced that permits for one of the biggest planned projects of the group, the Ayia Napa marina, are expected to be issued soon, with the construction work set to begin in the first half of 2015 and completed in 2018.
Milano Da Bere after-work party fully booked The opening act of the third season of Milano Da Bere, the series of after-work parties, is already full booked, according to organisers HazeTeam. The event, taking place at The Patio in Old Nicosia from 6.30pm on Thursday, will be strictly reserved to those who managed to make a booking, due to the limited space from previous venues. “This season we welcome Andrew P as the resident DJ of ‘Milano da Bere’,” the organisers said. Doors open at 6.30pm while the open buffet will be available until 8.30pm. For further information and to reserve the next event, contact the Haze maitre, Andreas Christodoulides on 99 306254 and 99 092932 or visit www.hazeteam.com The main sponsor Chivas Regal Cyprus and the media partners are the Financial Mirror and mediapro.
The Co-operative Central Bank, that was bailed out by the state with a EUR 1.5 bln injection, recorded a net profit of EUR 85.6 mln in the first half of the year, with its Chairman Nicolas Hadjiyiannis saying the balance sheet is robust and the result of the ECB stress tests will be manageable. He said non-performing loans (NPLs) totalled 53.1% of total loan portfolios in the first half of the year and the rate of increase slowed down to 54.5% at present. “The results are very satisfactory, as the Co-operatives continue to be on a profitable growth path. The Cooperatives have a net profit of EUR 85.6 mn and operating
Referring to the budget for 2015 and the medium-term financial framework for 2015 – 2017 he told MPs that the goal is to help the path of correction of the economy rather than to undermine it. “We are presenting a budget for 2015 which just as for 2014 will absolutely achieve all fiscal targets, will not create a new primary deficit, with no new taxes, no new burden placed on the private sector, households and businesses and which includes no new cuts and foresees a slight reasonable expenditure growth of 0.6% in line with the expected growth of the economy”, he pointed out. At the same time he noted that the government remains reserved as regards its plans Georgiades said that public debt is considered to be viable and to drop below 100% of GDP before 2020. He also told MPs that unemployment is expected to be 14.8% in 2015.
profits of 117 mln,” Hadjiyiannis said. “Following the results of the first quarter, a trend of stabilisation and proper functioning of the Co-ops is clearly revealed and this fills us with optimism and strength that we are doing well,” he said. He added that the Group’s Common Equity Tier 1 ratio is at 13.6% “showing a very robust image” of the Co-operative Credit Sector. Hadjiyiannis said that the messages coming from the NPLs recovery division “are quite positive as borrowers are cooperating”.
Hellenic Bank proceeds with rights issue Hellenic Bank, the island’s second biggest lender that avoided a public bailout after private investors stepped in and pumped about EUR 100 mln earlier this year, said the board will convene on October 25-26 to review capital matters as well as the financial results for the first 9 months. The bank had announced last month that it would proceed with a pro-rata rights issue (of an as yet unspecified size) to its existing shareholders to “support the needs of Hellenic Bank Group’s business plan while at the same time reinforce the bank’s Common Equity Tier 1.” The bank said that the fresh capital raising is part of the European Central Bank’s overall assessment exercise, or ‘stress test’, that will be published on Sunday for all 130 Eurozone systemic banks, including four in Cyprus. Group Chairwoman Irena Georgiadou said in a statement that “both the strong balance sheet and the comfortable liquidity make up the platform upon which Hellenic Bank Group would actively and catalytically participate in the recovery and support of the Cyprus economy.”
Last month, the bank introduced 151 mln new shares that arose from the conversion of company convertible (CoCo) bonds, with only 25 mln CoCo bonds remaining outstanding. The bank, that secured fresh capital from institutionals Wargaming.net, New York-based hedge fund Third Point and local investment house Demetra, announced on September 1 that first half after-tax losses doubled year-on-year to EUR 95.5 mln, due to a deterioration of the bank’s loan portfolio and further increase in provisions. Georgiadou, in her first report to shareholders after her appointment in May, warned that the Cyprus economy and society continued to face “an unprecedented crisis”, but that the obstacles faced by the crisis will be overcome bringing better days for all. She said that during the second quarter, the bank strengthened its balance sheet further with comfortable liquidity and improved coverage of non-performing loans (NPLs). Deposits increased by 6% since the end of 2013, and the net loans to deposits ratio improved even further to a best in class ratio of 57%.
EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A AÚ. 987
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∆∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 22 √∫∆øµƒπ√À, 2014
√È ÂÎÔÈ‹ÛÂȘ ‰ÂÓ ı· ÌÂÈÒÛÔ˘Ó Ù· ÌË Â͢ËÚÂÙÔ‡ÌÂÓ· ‰¿ÓÂÈ· Το θέµα των µη εξυπηρετουµένων δανείων δεν µπορεί να αντιµετωπιστεί µÞνο δια µέσου των εκποιήσεων, ενώ αποτελεί απρονοησία και απερισκεψία η τυφλή και άνευ προβληµατισµού υλοποίηση Þλων των απαιτήσεων τησ ΤρÞικα, ήταν η θέση που διατύπωσε ο καθηγητήσ του Πανεπιστηµίου Λευκωσίασ Ανδρέασ Θεοφάνουσ κατά την παρουσίαση µελέτησ του Πανεπιστηµίου για την αποτελεσµατική αντιµετώπιση των µη-εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων. Τη µελέτη, την οποία συνυπογράφουν οι καθηγητέσ ΧριστÞφοροσ ΧριστοφÞρου και Κυριάκοσ Γεωργίου, προτείνει έναν ολοκληρωµένο επανασχεδιασµÞ τησ δηµοσιονοµικήσ, αναπτυξιακήσ και κοινωνικήσ πολιτικήσ µε κύριουσ άξονεσ τη µείωση τησ φορολογίασ σε συνδυασµÞ µε την επιβολή αυστηρÞτερων ποινών για αντιµετώπιση τησ φοροδιαφυγήσ, η οποία προϋποθέτει επαναδιαπραγµάτευση του µνηµονίου, χωρίσ ωστÞσο να αµφισβητείται η πορεία εξυγίανσησ. «Αποτελεί πλάνη Þτι το πρÞβληµα θα αντιµετωπισθεί µÞνο δια µέσου των εκποιήσεων.Υπογραµµίζεται συναφώσ Þτι είναι αδύνατο να αποπληρωθεί ιδιωτικÞ και δηµÞσιο χρέοσ κάτω απÞ συνθήκεσ µιασ συνεχιζÞµενησ και βαθιάσ ύφεσησ. Ωσ εκ τούτου είναι πολύ σηµαντική η προώθηση µιασ ολοκληρωµένησ εναλλακτικήσ πρÞτασησ, η οποία θα επικεντρώνεται στη χαλάρωση των Þρων του Μνηµονίου και στη δηµιουργία συνθηκών πραγµατικήσ επανεκκίνησησ», ανέφερε ο κ. Θεοφάνουσ. Ùπωσ είπε ο πιο σηµαντικÞσ τρÞποσ βελτίωσησ των δεικτών για το ιδιωτικÞ και δηµÞσιο χρέοσ είναι η αύξηση του ΑΕΠ, ενώ η κυβέρνηση, το ευρύτερο πολιτικÞ σύστηµα αλλά και η κοινωνία, πρέπει να εργασθούν για µια ολοκληρωµένη εναλλακτική οικονοµική φιλοσοφία µέσα απÞ το σύστηµα τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Ο κ. Θεοφάνουσ ανέφερε Þτι η µελέτη κατατίθεται σε µια περίοδο Þπου στην ΕΕ και ευρύτερα αµφισβητείται ποικιλοτρÞπωσ η πολιτική τησ σκληρήσ λιτÞτητασ, ενώ είπε Þτι η πρÞσφατη απÞφαση τησ Στατιστικήσ Υπηρεσίασ τησ ΕΕ για διαφοροποίηση προσ το βέλτιστο του τρÞπου υπολογισµού του ΑΕΠ, εµµέσωσ πλην σαφώσ αποτελεί παραδοχή για την αποτυχηµένη πολιτική που έχει ακολουθηθεί. Με βάση στοιχεία, ο κ. Θεοφάνουσ ανέφερε Þτι παρά τισ αυξήσεισ στισ φορολογίεσ τα έσοδα παρουσιάζονται µειωµένα, αφού Þπωσ εξήγησε η πίτα είναι πλέον µικρÞτερη, ενώ έχει αυξηθεί η ροπή για φοροδιαφυγή. Σηµείωσε επίσησ Þτι στη Γαλλία και στην Ιταλία ήδη συζητείται η µείωση τησ φορολογίασ.
√ ÈÔ ÛËÌ·ÓÙÈÎfi˜ ÙÚfiÔ˜ ‚ÂÏÙ›ˆÛ˘ ÙˆÓ ‰ÂÈÎÙÒÓ ÁÈ· ÙÔ È‰ÈˆÙÈÎfi Î·È ‰ËÌfiÛÈÔ ¯Ú¤Ô˜ Â›Ó·È Ë ·‡ÍËÛË ÙÔ˘ ∞∂¶, ÙÔÓ›˙Ô˘Ó Î·ıËÁËÙ¤˜ ÙÔ˘ ¶·ÓÂÈÛÙËÌ›Ô˘ §Â˘ÎˆÛ›·˜ Η µελέτη του Πανεπιστηµίου Λευκωσίασ προτείνει Þπωσ η Κύπροσ έχει ζητήσει πολυδιάσταση στήριξη απÞ τουσ εταίρουσ τησ στην ΕΕ, απÞ µια µορφή Marshall Plan έωσ στοχευµένη οικονοµική στήριξη καθώσ και ουσιαστική χαλάρωση των Þρων του Μνηµονίου. Προτείνει επίσησ να γίνουν ουσιαστικέσ προσπάθειεσ επαναδιαπραγµάτευσησ του ποσού του ELA το οποίο µεταφέρθηκε στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου απÞ τη Λαϊκή µετά την εκκαθάριση τησ τελευταίασ. Παράλληλα να υπάρξουν στοχευÞµενεσ ρευστοποιήσεισ για να υπάρξει αποτελεσµατική αντιµετώπιση του προβλήµατοσ των µη εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων αλλά και διαφύλαξη τησ ποιÞτητασ του χαρτοφυλακίου των τραπεζών. Ζητά επίσησ να υπάρξει µια γενναιÞδωρη πολιτική ουσιαστικήσ µείωσησ δανειστικών επιτοκίων για ένα συγκεκριµένο χρονικÞ διάστηµα, καθώσ και να προωθηθεί το πλαίσιο για την αφερεγγυÞτητα το συντοµÞτερο δυνατÞ. Ùσον αφορά τισ πρακτικέσ παραχώρησησ δανείων, αναφέρεται Þτι απÞ µια κατάσταση ασυδοσίασ έχουν περάσει στην απÞλυτη ασφυξία. «Αυτή η υπερβολή θα πρέπει να αναστραφεί. Είναι καθοριστικήσ σηµασίασ για τισ τράπεζεσ να επανακτήσουν το κοινωνικÞ τουσ πρÞσωπο. ΑυτÞ θα συµβάλλει στην αποκατάσταση τησ εµπιστοσύνησ του κοινού προσ αυτέσ και κατ’ επέκτα-
ση στην εύρυθµη λειτουργία τησ οικονοµίασ», αναφέρεται. Επίσησ προτείνεται να καταβληθούν προσπάθειεσ µε άλλεσ χώρεσ του ΝÞτου για συνέχιση τησ επεκτατικήσ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα. Ùσον αφορά τον ολοκληρωµένο σχεδιασµÞ τησ δηµοσιονοµικήσ, αναπτυξιακήσ και κοινωνικήσ πολιτικήσ, προτείνεται µια νέα φορολογική µεταρρύθµιση η οποία θα λάβει υπÞψη την κοινωνική διάσταση καθώσ και ένα πλέγµα κινήτρων για επενδύσεισ, καταθέσεισ και ενθάρρυνση συγκεκριµένων δραστηριοτήτων. Η φιλοσοφία του Þλου φορολογικού συστήµατοσ θα ενσωµατώνει την αρχή «χαµηλοί φορολογικοί συντελεστέσ και ψηλέσ ποινέσ µη συµµÞρφωσησ». Προτείνεται η µείωση του ανώτατου συντελεστή στον ΦÞρο Εισοδήµατοσ απÞ 35% στο 30%, ο ΦΠΑ να µειωθεί απÞ 19% στο 15% και απÞ 9% στο 7%, µείωση του Εταιρικού ΦÞρου απÞ 12,5% στο 10%, µείωση τησ φορολογίασ/συνεισφοράσ στο Ταµείο Κοινωνικών Ασφαλίσεων και επαναφορά του απÞ 7,8% στο προηγούµενο επίπεδο (6,8%), µείωση τησ φορολογίασ στα εισοδήµατα απÞ καταθέσεισ απÞ 30% στο 9,5%. ΣτÞχοσ είναι η συγκεκριµένη φορολογία να επιστρέψει στα προηγούµενα επίπεδα ούτωσ ώστε να µην αποτελεί αποτρεπτικÞ παράγοντα σε καταθέτεσ καθώσ και σε ξένουσ επενδυτέσ. Για τη δηµοσιονοµική σταθερÞτητα προκρίνονται ισοσκελισµένοι προϋπολογισµοί στα πλαίσια µιασ µεγαλύτερησ χρονικήσ περιÞδου, καθώσ και µείωση και εξορθολογισµÞσ του φÞρου ακίνητησ ιδιοκτησίασ. Προτείνεται επίσησ να µην υπάρξει οποιαδήποτε επιπρÞσθετη µείωση µισθών καθώσ µια τέτοια εξέλιξη θα εµβαθύνει την κρίση. Επίσησ, µακροπρÞθεσµα να µειωθούν οι δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ ωσ ποσοστÞ του ΑΕΠ κάτω απÞ το 40%. Προτείνεται επίσησ µείωση του προσωπικού στο δηµÞσιο και ευρύτερο δηµÞσιο τοµέα ωσ αποτέλεσµα διαφÞρων µέτρων και προώθηση τησ ενοποίησησ των δήµων και άλλων υπηρεσιών. Επίσησ ενθάρρυνση νέων τοµέων οικονοµικήσ δραστηριÞτητασ και µοχλών ανάπτυξησ, αναθεώρηση των συνταξιοδοτικών σχεδίων µε τρÞπο που να αποκαθίσταται η ισοτιµία των πολιτών και ο οικονοµικÞσ ορθολογισµÞσ, εξυγίανση και αναβάθµιση του δηµÞσιου βίου περιλαµβανοµένησ και τησ δηµÞσιασ διοίκησησ. Τέλοσ αναφέρεται Þτι αξίζει να µελετηθούν περιπτώσεισ χωρών που αντιµετώπισαν παρÞµοια προβλήµατα και πωσ τα διαχειρίστηκαν.
1 ‰È˜ ÏÈÁfiÙÂÚÔ ÂÍ·ÚÙË̤ÓË ÛÙÔÓ ELA Ë ∆Ú¿Â˙· ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ∫·Ù¿ €1 Περαιτέρω µείωση κατά 1 δισ ευρώ τησ εξάρτησησ τησ απÞ την έκτακτη ρευστÞτητα (ELA) προχώρησε το Σεπτέµβριο του 2014 η Τράπεζα Κύπρου, µε τον ELA να µειώνεται στα 7,68 δισ ευρώ, απÞ 8,68 δισ ευρώ τον Αύγουστο, σύµφωνα µε στοιχεία τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ τησ Κύπρου. Εξάλλου, σύµφωνα µε τα στοιχεία τησ ΚΤ, περαιτέρω µικρή µείωση κατά 30 εκ. ευρώ, στα 920 εκ. ευρώ σηµειώθηκε το Σεπτέµβριο του 2014 στην εξάρτηση του κυπριακού τραπεζικού συστήµατοσ απÞ πράξεισ νοµισµατικήσ πολιτικήσ (Ευρωσύστηµα), απÞ 950 δισ ευρώ τον προηγούµενο µήνα. Η µείωση το Σεπτέµβριο του 2014 του ELA που διαθέτει στο χαρτοφυλάκιο τησ η Τράπεζα Κύπρου οφείλεται εν µέρει στο γεγονÞσ Þτι η Τράπεζα προχώρησε σε αποπληρωµή ποσού 800 εκ. ευρώ µετά την ολοκλήρωση τησ αύξησησ του µετοχικού τησ κεφαλαίου κατά 1 δισ ευρώ εντÞσ του µήνα. Σηµειώνεται Þτι σε σηµαντική µείωση του ELA προχώρησε η Τράπεζα Κύπρου και τον περασµένο Ιούλιο Þταν η Κυβέρνηση αποπλήρωσε την 1η Ιουλίου ποσÞ 950 εκ. ευρώ που αφορούσε µέροσ του κρατικού χρεογράφου ύψουσ περίπου 2 δισ. ευρώ που δÞθηκε αρχικά για την ανακεφαλαιοποίηση τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ και µεταφέρθηκε στη συνέχεια στην Τράπεζα Κύπρου. ΤÞτε, η Τράπεζα Κύπρου είχε ανακοινώσει Þτι η αποπληρωµή του οµολÞγου θα επιτρέψει στην Τράπεζα να µειώσει τη χρηµατοδÞτηση τησ απÞ την ΕΚΤ περίπου κατά 550 εκ. ευρώ και να χρησιµοποιήσει το υπÞλοιπο ποσÞ για µείωση του δανεισµού απÞ τον ELA περίπου 400 εκ. ευρώ. Η εξάρτηση των κυπριακών τραπεζών απÞ τον ELA είχε φθάσει το Μάρτιο του 2013 στο υψηλÞτερο ιστορικά επίπεδο, στα 11,40 δισ ευρώ.
°ÈˆÚοÙ˙Ë: «¡· ÌËÓ ·˘ÙÔÌ·ÛÙÈÁˆÓfiÌ·ÛÙ» ÁÈ· ÙÔÓ ELA Εν τω µεταξύ την άποψη Þτι δεν θα πρέπει να υιοθετούνται δηµοσιεύµατα του ξένου Τύπου για το θέµα τησ έκτακτησ ρευστÞτητασ (ELA) που εξασφάλισε η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα, διατύπωσε η ∆ιοικητήσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Χρυστάλλα Γιωρκάτζη. «∆εν πρέπει να αυτοµαστιγωνÞµαστε», είπε χαρακτηριστικά, µιλώντασ ενώπιον τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών, Þταν ρωτήθηκε για το θέµα, χωρίσ να επεκταθεί περαιτέρω. Το Þλο ζήτηµα ήρθε στη δηµοσιÞτητα ύστερα απÞ δηµοσίευµα τησ New York Times, η οποία επικαλούµενη πρακτικά των συνεδριάσεων του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ ΕΚΤ την επίµαχη περίοδο, έγραψε Þτι ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Γερµανικήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ Γενσ Βάιντµαν αµφισβητούσε το ύψοσ των εξασφαλίσεων που κατέθετε η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα έναντι του ELA και διαφωνούσε µε την παροχή ρευστÞτητασ σε µια τράπεζα που δεν ήταν φερέγγυα. Τισ θέσεισ αυτέσ απέρριψε και ο τέωσ ∆ιοικητήσ τησ ΚΤΚ Πανίκοσ ∆ηµητριάδησ, ενώ νέα δηµοσιεύµατα απÞ την Financial Times και το BBC υποστήριξαν Þτι το ύψοσ των εξασφαλίσεων τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ υπολογίζετο ωσ 1 δισ ευρώ λιγÞτερο απÞ τον ELA και Þτι τισ επιφυλάξεισ Βάιντµαν συµµερίζονταν µερικώσ και οι ∆ιοικητέσ των Κεντρικών Τραπεζών τησ Ολλανδίασ και τησ Γαλλίασ. ΑρµÞδια πηγή παρατήρησε Þτι τα πρακτικά δηµοσιεύτηκαν κατά τρÞπο παραπλανητικÞ. Αναγνώρισε µεν Þτι Þντωσ υπήρχε διαφορά µεταξύ του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ
ΕΚΤ και τησ ΚΤΚ αναφορικά µε την εκτίµηση του ύψουσ των εξασφαλίσεων που κατέθετε η Λαϊκή Τράπεζα, µια διαφορά που ανερχÞταν στο 1 δισ ευρώ, σηµειώνοντασ δε Þτι ο εξασφαλίσεισ είτε υπερκάλυπταν τον ELA. Οι εξασφαλίσεισ, σηµείωσε η ίδια πηγή, που είχαν κατατεθεί ήταν 17,9 δισ ευρώ, ενώ – λÞγω του κινδύνου που συνÞδευε την κυπριακή οικονοµία - η αξία τουσ αποµειώθηκε στα 11,5 δισ ευρώ σύµφωνα µε τουσ υπολογισµούσ τησ ΚΤΚ, ενώ µε βάση τουσ υπολογισµούσ αρµÞδιασ επιτροπήσ του ∆Σ τησ ΕΚΤ η αξία των εξασφαλίσεων αυτών µειώνονταν περαιτέρω στα 10,5 δισ ευρώ. Η ίδια πηγή σηµείωσε πωσ Þταν το θέµα συζητήθηκε στο ∆Σ τησ ΕΚΤ, ένα εκτελεστικÞ µέλοσ του ∆Σ παρατήρησε Þτι και οι δύο µεθοδολογίεσ υπολογισµού τησ αξίασ των εξασφαλίσεων ήταν αποδεκτέσ και παρατήρησε Þτι και µε τισ δύο µεθÞδουσ υπολογισµού οι εξασφαλίσεισ υπερκάλυπταν το ύψοσ του ELA.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
∂›Û¢ÛË ÙˆÓ ‰È·‰ÈηÛÈÒÓ ÁÈ· ¯Ú‹ÛË ÙÔ˘ ˘ÁÚ·ÂÚ›Ô˘ Œˆ˜ 20% fiÊÂÏÔ˜ ÚÔ˜ ÙÔ˘˜ ηٷӷψ٤˜ Το θέµα τησ επίσπευσησ τησ νοµοθεσίασ για εισαγωγή του υγραερίου στην αυτοκίνηση, µελέτησε χθεσ η Κοινοβουλευτική Επιτροπή Εµπορίου µε τον ΥπουργÞ Ενέργειασ Γιώργο Λακκοτρύπη να δηλώνει πωσ αναµένεται σηµαντική µείωση στο κÞστοσ τησ υγραεριοκίνησησ, εφÞσον η φορολογία παραµείνει σε χαµηλά επίπεδα. Ο κ. Λακκοτρύπησ είπε επίσησ Þτι λήφθηκε επιστολή µε πρÞταση Οδηγίασ τησ ΕΕ για τη φορολÞγηση του καυσίµου, την οποία µελετά το Υπουργείο. Βάσει πρÞχειρων υπολογισµών, πρÞσθεσε, το υγραέριο
είναι αφενÞσ λιγÞτερο αποδοτικÞ στην αυτοκίνηση απÞ τη βενζίνη, απÞ την άλλη Þµωσ είναι φθηνÞτερο και «αν η φορολογία κρατηθεί στα σηµερινά επίπεδα, αναµένεται να υπάρξει σηµαντική µείωση στο κÞστοσ του συγκεκριµένου καυσίµου». «Φαίνεται Þτι η πρÞταση Οδηγίασ ευνοεί, τουλάχιστον σε Þ,τι αφορά τη φορολογία, τη χρήση του υγραερίου στην αυτοκίνηση. Είναι κάτι που πρέπει να µελετήσουµε τισ επÞµενεσ µέρεσ για να δούµε τι σηµαίνει ακριβώσ για την αγορά καυσίµων στην Κύπρο», σηµείωσε ο ΥπουργÞσ, ανα-
φέροντασ Þτι θα ενηµερωθεί σχετικά και η Βουλή. ΑπÞ την πλευρά του ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Επιτροπήσ Λευτέρησ ΧριστοφÞρου είπε Þτι η οδηγία τησ ΕΕ για χαµηλή φορολÞγηση του υγραερίου κίνησησ παρέχει τη δυνατÞτητα στο κράτοσ για ανάπτυξη του καυσίµου αυτού, µε Þφελοσ για τον καταναλωτή ωσ και 20% στην τιµή. Επικαλούµενοσ στοιχεία του Υπουργείου Ενέργειασ, κ. ΧριστοφÞρου είπε Þτι η οδηγία τησ ΕΕ κάνει λÞγο για φορολογία 8,5 σεντ στο υγραέριο, σε σύγκριση µε 30-40 σεντ ανά λίτρο που είναι ο φÞροσ στα υπÞλοιπα καύσιµα.
2,2% ÙÔ˘ ΢ÚÈ·ÎÔ‡ ∞∂¶ Û ∂ÏÏ¿‰·, πÚÏ·Ó‰›·, ¶ÔÚÙÔÁ·Ï›· Μείωση του δηµÞσιου ελλείµµατοσ το 2013, αλλά και σηµαντική αποκλιµάκωση του χρέουσ η οποία οφείλεται στη νέα µεθοδολογία του Συστήµατοσ Ευρωπαϊκών Λογαριασµών (SEC 2010), προκύπτουν για την Κύπρο απÞ τα τελικά δηµοσιονοµικά στοιχεία για το περασµένο έτοσ, που δηµοσιοποίησε η Εurostat. Σύµφωνα µε τα κοινοτικά στοιχεία, το δηµÞσιο έλλειµµα στην Κύπρο κυµάνθηκε το 2013 στα 891 εκ. ευρώ ή -4,9% του ΑΕΠ, ενώ το 2012 είχε ανέλθει στα 1.130 εκ. ευρώ ή -5,8% του ΑΕΠ. Η πρώτη εκτίµηση του περασµένου Απριλίου έδινε έλλειµµα 5,4%.
Το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ ανήλθε το 2013 στα 18.519 εκ. ευρώ ή 102,2% του ΑΕΠ. Το 2012 το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ ήταν 15.431 εκ. ευρώ ή 79,5% του ΑΕΠ. Η νέα µεθοδολογία τησ Εurostat οδήγησε σε µια υποχώρηση του χρέουσ σε ποσοστÞ του ΑΕΠ τησ τάξησ των 9,5 µονάδων που ήταν η ψηλÞτερη τησ ΕΕ. Το συνολικÞ ΑΕΠ τησ Κύπρου κυµάνθηκε το 2013 στα 18.119 εκ. ευρώ, έναντι 19.411 εκ. ευρώ που είχε καταγραφεί το 2012. Αναφορικά µε τα δηµÞσια έσοδα, Þπωσ προκύπτει απÞ τα στοιχεία τησ Εurostat, το 2013 αυξήθηκαν στο 36,5% του ΑΕΠ απÞ 36,3% το 2012.
Μειωµένεσ ήταν οι δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ, οι οποίεσ έφτασαν το 41,4% του ΑΕΠ, ενώ το ίδιο ποσοστÞ είχε καταγραφεί και το 2012. Η Κύπροσ είχε συνεισφέρει συνολικά προσ τισ χώρεσ που βρίσκονταν σε πρÞγραµµα διάσωσησ (Ελλάδα, Ιρλανδία, Πορτογαλία) το ποσÞ των 393 εκ. ευρώ ή 2,2% του ΑΕΠ. Τα ποσά αυτά είχαν δοθεί πριν η Κύπροσ ενταχθεί σε πρÞγραµµα προσαρµογήσ. Στο σύνολο τησ ευρωζώνησ καταγράφηκε µέσο δηµÞσιο έλλειµµα 2,9% του ΑΕΠ απÞ 3,6% το 2012. Το µέσο δηµÞσιο χρέοσ αυξήθηκε περαιτέρω φτάνοντασ το 90,9% του ΑΕΠ απÞ 89,0% το 2012.
™ÙȘ 50,000 ÔÈ ·Ê›ÍÂȘ ÛÙÔ ÏÈÌ¿ÓÈ §¿Úӷη˜ Καταφθάνουν το ερχÞµενο Σάββατο 25 Οκτωβρίου, στο λιµάνι Λάρνακασ, δύο υπερπολυτελή κρουαζιερÞπλοια, τα «MS Deutschland» και «MV Deutschland», τα οποία αναµένεται Þτι θα µεταφέρουν γύρω στουσ 500 επιβάτεσ. Ο ∆ήµοσ Λάρνακασ θα πραγµατοποιήσει θερµή υποδοχή στουσ επιβάτεσ των δύο κρουαζιερÞπλοιων ενώ θα παρέχει υποστηρικτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ, µε στÞχο οι επιβάτεσ να αποκοµίσουν άριστεσ εντυπώσεισ. Τα κρουαζιερÞπλοια θα αφιχθούν για πρώτη φορά στο λιµάνι τησ Λάρνακασ ενώ ένα απÞ αυτά θα διανυκτερεύσει στην πÞλη. Η άφιξη των δύο κρουαζιερÞπλοιων χαρακτηρίζεται µεγάλησ σηµασίασ γεγονÞσ, Þχι µÞνο για την πÞλη αλλά και για την ευρύτερη επαρχία, καθώσ αποτυπώνει στην πράξη τισ δυνα-
∞ÏÏ¿˙ÂÈ Ë ÒÚ· ÙËÓ ∫˘Úȷ΋ 26 √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘ Το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού ανακοίνωσε Þτι η περίοδοσ τησ Θερινήσ Ώρασ για το 2014 τερµατίζεται την Κυριακή 26 Οκτωβρίου, στισ 4 π.µ. Κατά την ώρα αυτή, οι δείκτεσ των ρολογιών θα πρέπει να µετακινηθούν κατά µία ώρα πίσω. ΣχετικÞ ∆ιάταγµα δηµοσιεύθηκε στην Επίσηµη Εφηµερίδα τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ στισ 17 Ιουλίου 2013 (Ε.Ε Παρ.ΙΙΙ(Ι), Αρ. 4697, Κ.∆.Π. 263/2013). Ο πιο πάνω θεσµÞσ εφαρµÞζεται σε Þλεσ τισ χώρεσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ.
τÞτητεσ που έχει η Λάρνακα για να προσελκύσει τουρισµÞ κρουαζιέρασ σε µια περίοδο που ο συγκεκριµένοσ τοµέασ παρουσιάζει ανοδική τάση τÞσο στη ΜεσÞγειο Þσο και ανά το παγκÞσµιο. ΑπÞ τον Ιανουάριο µέχρι τον Σεπτέµβριο του 2014, συνολικά 25 κρουαζιερÞπλοια έφτασαν στο λιµάνι τησ Λάρνακασ µεταφέροντασ περίπου 33 χιλιάδεσ επιβάτεσ. ∆εδοµένου Þτι οι αφίξεισ κρουαζιερÞπλοιων θα συνεχιστούν µέχρι τα µέσα Νοεµβρίου, υπολογίζεται Þτι οι αφίξεισ επιβατών θα ανέλθουν στα ιδία περσινά επίπεδα, δηλαδή γύρω στισ 50 χιλιάδεσ επιβάτεσ, οι οποίοι επισκέπτονται στο κέντρο τησ Λάρνακασ και συµµετέχουν σε οργανωµένεσ εκδροµέσ στη Λάρνακα, στα Λεύκαρα και σε άλλεσ πÞλεισ.
20 ÍÂÓԉԯ›· ÛÙËÓ ∞Á›· ¡¿· ·ÓÔÈÎÙ¿ Î·È ÙˆÓ ¯ÂÈÌÒÓ· Εκκληση προσ τουσ Κυπρίουσ να επισκεφθούν τη χειµερινή περίοδο την Αγία Νάπα και την ελεύθερη περιοχή Αµµοχώστου και να εκµεταλλευθούν τισ χαµηλέσ τιµέσ που προσφέρουν τα ξενοδοχεία που θα παραµείνουν ανοικτά, απηύθυνε ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Αγίασ Νάπασ Γιάννησ Καρούσοσ. Σε δηλώσεισ του κ. Καρούσοσ είπε Þτι «η Αγία Νάπα προβαίνει σε διάφορεσ κινήσεισ προκειµένου να προσελκύσει εγχώριο τουρισµÞ. Απευθύνουµε έκκληση στουσ Κύπριουσ, συνέχισε «να επισκεφθούν κατά τη διάρκεια του χειµώνα την Αγία Νάπα και ευρύτερα την ελεύθερη περιοχή Αµµοχώστου, να ανακαλύψουν µέσω των πολύ χαµηλών τιµών που προσφέρουν τα ξενοδοχεία την άλλη Þψη τησ Αγίασ Νάπασ Þπωσ τα πάρκα γλυπτικήσ, τουσ κακτÞκηπουσ που δηµιουργούνται, τα µουσεία αλλά και τα διάφορα εκθέµατα και δραστηριÞτητεσ που ετοιµάζονται». Κληθείσ να αναφέρει τον αριθµÞ των ξενοδοχείων που θα παραµείνουν ανοικτά κατά τη χειµερινή περίοδο ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Αγίασ Νάπασ είπε πωσ «κάθε χρÞνο παραµένουν ανοικτά για το χειµώνα περίπου 20 - 22 ξενοδοχεία». Ο κ. Καρούσοσ ανέφερε επίσησ Þτι η πληρÞτητα των ξενοδοχείων τησ Αγίασ Νάπασ και γενικÞτερα τησ ελεύθερησ περιοχήσ Αµµοχώστου βρίσκεται σε υψηλά επίπεδα για τον µήνα Οκτώβριο, προσθέτοντασ Þτι Þλοι οι αρµÞδιοι παράγοντεσ τησ περιοχήσ εργά-
ζονται για επιµήκυνση τησ τουριστικήσ περιÞδου. ΠρÞσθεσε πωσ µετά το τέλοσ τησ καλοκαιρινήσ τουριστικήσ περιÞδου «Þλοι οι αρµÞδιοι παράγοντεσ τησ περιοχήσ έχουµε αρχίσει τισ προετοιµασίεσ για την χειµερινή περίοδο, αρχήσ γενοµένησ απÞ τον Νοέµβριο. Αρκετέσ εκδηλώσεισ που έχουµε προγραµµατίσει Þπωσ τον αγώνα Τριάθλου που θα γίνει στισ 2 Νοεµβρίου, τον Αγώνα ∆ρÞµου και το Street Art Festival, που θα είναι διεθνέσ». Εξήγησε Þτι στο συγκεκριµένο φεστιβάλ «διεθνείσ καλλιτέχνεσ τησ τρισδιάστατησ τέχνησ και του γκράφιτι, θα έρθουν στην Αγία Νάπα Þπου θα παραµείνουν για δέκα περίπου µέρεσ, απÞ την 1η µέχρι τισ 10 Νοεµβρίου. Τισ συγκεκριµένεσ ηµέρεσ οι καλλιτέχνεσ θα ζωγραφίσουν, σε διάφορα εγκαταλελειµµένα κτίρια και µεγάλουσ τοίχουσ στο κέντρο του ∆ήµου, τισ δικέσ τουσ µοναδικέσ δηµιουργίεσ, µε στÞχο τÞσο την οµορφιά τησ περιοχήσ Þσο και την προσέλκυση τουριστών που ενδιαφέρονται γι’αυτÞ το είδοσ τησ τέχνησ». Ερωτηθείσ για τυχÞν συµφωνίεσ για άφιξη νέων αεροπορικών εταιρειών ειδικά απÞ τη Ρωσία, ο ∆ήµαρχοσ Αγίασ Νάπασ απάντησε πωσ «υπήρχαν αρκετέσ συµφωνίεσ στα σκαριά. ΩστÞσο λÞγω τησ κρίσησ που υπάρχει στη Ρωσία έχουν παγοποιηθεί αυτέσ οι συµφωνίεσ αλλά υπάρχουν θετικÞτατα µηνύµατα για τον αθλητικÞ τουρισµÞ».
√ÎÙÒ Ì¤ÙÚ· ηٿ ÙˆÓ ÙÔ˘ÚÎÈÎÒÓ ÚÔÎÏ‹ÛÂˆÓ ÛÙËÓ Î˘Úȷ΋ ∞√∑ Συνολικά οκτώ µέτρα άµεσησ εφαρµογήσ σε σχέση µε τη συνεχιζÞµενη παραβίαση των κυριαρχικών δικαιωµάτων τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ στην Αποκλειστική Οικονοµική τησ Ζώνη απÞ την Τουρκία αποφάσισε το ΕθνικÞ Συµβούλιο, το οποίο συνήλθε χθεσ για δεύτερη συνεχÞµενη µέρα, υπÞ την Προεδρία του Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκου Αναστασιάδη. Τα µέτρα περιλαµβάνουν: 1) Την καταγγελία τησ Τουρκίασ απÞ τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Συµβούλιο που συνέρχεται στισ 23 και 24 Οκτωβρίου, µε σκοπÞ την καταδίκη των παράνοµων ενεργειών τησ Τουρκίασ και τησ παραβίασησ των κυριαρχικών
δικαιωµάτων τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ στην Αποκλειστική Οικονοµική τησ Ζώνη, 2) Την αξιοποίηση, σε διάφορουσ διεθνήσ φορείσ, τησ ιδιÞτητασ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, ωσ κράτοσ µέλοσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, µε λήψη µέτρων, που θα προκαλέσουν κÞστοσ στην Τουρκία για τισ παράνοµεσ ενέργειεσ τησ και 3) Τη µη συναίνεση, απÞ πλευράσ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, στο άνοιγµα οποιουδήποτε νέου κεφαλαίου στην ενταξιακή πορεία τησ Τουρκίασ. 4) Τη µελέτη του ενδεχοµένου προσφυγήσ στο Συµβούλιο Ασφαλείασ των Ηνωµένων Εθνών. 5) Τη µελέτη απÞ τον ΓενικÞ Εισαγγελέα και ∆ιεθνείσ Οίκουσ,
για λήψη συγκεκριµένων νοµικών µέτρων εναντίον Þσων εµπλέκονται µε οποιονδήποτε τρÞπο στισ παράνοµεσ τουρκικέσ ενέργειεσ. 6) Τη συνέχιση διπλωµατικών διαβηµάτων και αξιοποίηση σχέσεων µε συγκεκριµένα κράτη. 7) Την καταγγελία τησ Τουρκίασ για τισ παράνοµεσ ενέργειεσ τησ στη ∆ιεύθυνση Ωκεανών και ∆ικαίου τησ Θάλασσασ τησ Γραµµατείασ των Ηνωµένων Εθνών. 8) Την καταγγελία τησ Τουρκίασ για την παράνοµη δέσµευση και παράνοµη διεξαγωγή ερευνών εντÞσ τησ Αποκλειστικήσ Οικονοµικήσ Ζώνησ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, προσ το ∆ιεθνή ΝαυτιλιακÞ ΟργανισµÞ.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 3
¶ÔÈÔ˜ ·Á·¿ ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ; ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘
Η οικονοµική κατάσταση τησ Κύπρου είναι γνωστή, Þπωσ είναι και οι απέλπιδεσ προσπάθειεσ για την σωτηρία/ανάκαµψη τησ Κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Η βάση τησ ανάκαµψησ είναι µερικώσ και τα πολιτικά κÞµµατα που δυστυχώσ δεν αγαπούν την Κύπρο, αλλά τουσ εαυτούσ τουσ. Το κάθε κÞµµα έχει την δική του πολιτική ατζέντα και αδιαφορεί στην εξεύρεση συναινετικήσ λύσησ για να πάµε µπροστά, ή τουλάχιστον να έχουµε κάποια ελπίδα προσ αυτήν την κατεύθυνση.Τα περίεργα είναι διάφορα και περιοριζÞµενοι στον τοµέα των ακινήτων, παρατηρούµε τα ακÞλουθα µεταξύ πολλών άλλων: - Εδώ η συµπολίτευση αντιπαρατίθεται µε την Κυβέρνηση. Καλά δεν συνεννοούνται πριν; - ΠολιτικÞσ αρχηγÞσ µε καλέσ προτάσεισ για µια προσπάθεια (τουλάχιστον) για να ξανα-συζητηθεί το ΜνηµÞνιο, ούτε εισακούεται απÞ κανένα (είτε απÞ την συµπολίτευση και ιδιαίτερα προσεκτÞ απÞ την αντιπολίτευση). Βέβαια προσ τούτο το κÞµµα το οποίο ηγείται είναι τουλάχιστον ανεµÞµυλοσ, ενώ ο ίδιοσ διακατέχεται απÞ προσωπική εµπάθεια του υφιστάµενου Προέδρου µη επιτρέποντασ του να έχει καθαρέσ σκέψεισ. - Το κάθε κÞµµα µετρά πÞσουσ πÞντουσ εντυπώσεων θα κερδίσει και ποιοσ θα είναι ο «τζάµπα µάγκασ» (Βενιζέλοσ). Αλλά για αυτÞ ποιοσ φταίει; Εµείσ οι ίδιοι οι ψηφοφÞροι που εκλέγουµε τουσ ίδιουσ χωρίσ να έχουµε επιλογή απεγκλωβισµού (λÞγω τησ κάθετησ αντί τησ οριζÞντιασ ψηφοφορίασ). - Εδώ δεν µπορούν να συµφωνήσουν για τισ λιµουζίνεσ, για τισ δύο ιδιαιτέρεσ γραµµατείσ πρώην προέδρου τησ Βουλήσ, τουσ βοηθούσ των βουλευτών, τουσ κλητήρεσ/αστυνοµικούσ των πρώην και νυν πολιτικών και άλλα προκλητικά θέµατα. - Με τισ διάφορεσ εξοικονοµήσεισ που προσπαθεί η Κυβέρνηση να επιφέρει, τρέχουν οι ακριβοπληρωµένοι των συντεχνιών στα διάφορα κÞµµατα για στήριξη και στισ πλείστεσ των περιπτώσεων την έχουν, αδιαφορώντασ τα κÞµµατα για το κÞστοσ. - ΑπÞ την µια προσφέρουµε κίνητρα για επενδυτέσ και απÞ την άλλη ταλαιπωρούµε Ρώσο (για 18 χρÞνια παρακαλώ) για την τυπική έκδοση άδειασ παραµονήσ του που είδε το φώσ
τησ δηµοσιÞτητασ, µάλιστα ο γιÞσ του φοίτησε σε ΕλληνÞφωνο σχολείο και προσφέρθηκε να καταταγεί στην Εθνική Φρουρά (του αρνηθήκαµε). - Έχουµε τουσ ακατανÞητουσ, κατ’ εµάσ, εκείνουσ, που οποιαδήποτε ανάπτυξη γίνει ή προτίθεται να γίνει στην Κύπρο αυτήσ τησ δυστυχίασ, να αντιδρούν για οτιδήποτε, απÞ την Μαρίνα τησ Λεµεσού, µέχρι τον Ακάµα και το νέο έργο των 7 δισ ευρώ (αµφίβολο εάν γίνει µεν, αλλά ασ αφήσουµε αυτÞν τον επενδυτή να προχωρήσει µια και που δεν θα του παραχωρήσουµε και τίποτα εάν δεν µπορεί να το εκτελέσει). - Υπάρχουν ακÞµα, Þτι το χειρÞτερο, καταγγελίεσ εισ βάροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ προσ την Ε.Ε. απÞ διάφορουσ ΕπιτρÞπουσ, για τισ οποίεσ γράψαµε σε προηγούµενα µασ άρθρα, οι οποίοι πληρώνονται µε παχυλούσ µισθούσ απÞ την ∆ηµοκρατία, πλέον οι λιµουζίνεσ και οι οδηγοί τουσ και Þµωσ δεν διστάζουν για τισ δικέσ τουσ απÞψεισ να καταγγείλουν το Κράτοσ. ΚατανοητÞ ο Γ.∆. τησ Ryan Air να καταγγείλει το Κράτοσ για τισ Κυπριακέσ Αερογραµµέσ, διÞτι συγκρούονται µε τα δικά του συµφέροντα, αλλά και εµείσ οι ίδιοι; ΚαλÞσ µεν ο ΓενικÞσ Ελεγκτήσ, αλλά εάν κάνει και λίγο πίσω προσ το παρÞν δεν θα είναι και ιδιαίτερα λάθοσ. Εδώ τώρα οι µισοί δηµÞσιοι υπάλληλοι ερευνούν τουσ άλλουσ µισούσ – εργασία µηδέν. ΑπÞ την µια προσπαθούµε διακαώσ να προσελκύσουµε ξένουσ επενδυτέσ (οι πλείστοι οµολογουµένωσ αναζητούν
ψÞφιο κρέασ), τουσ χρηµατοδÞτεσ που έχασαν πλέον την «προσωπική» επαφή µε τουσ πελάτεσ (τώρα τισ διοικούν ξένοι χωρίσ ενδοιασµούσ για την Κύπρο) και απÞ την άλλη τουσ δυσκολεύουµε – ίδε την υπÞθεση VITOL. - Έχουµε και τισ εκποιήσεισ, µÞνο που ουδείσ γνωρίζει πωσ θα αντιµετωπιστούν π.χ. developers µε πουληµένεσ µονάδεσ και που έχουν οι ίδιοι (developers) πρÞβληµα, ενώ οι αγοραστέσ έχουν ξοφλήσει. Πωσ το αντιµετωπίζουµε το θέµα; - Έχουµε και τουσ ξενοδÞχουσ µασ που είναι οι αιώνιοι επαίτεσ του Κράτουσ χωρίσ κανένα πλάνο/πρÞταση πωσ θα διορθωθεί µε δικέσ του προσπάθειεσ ο τουρισµÞσ. Γράψαµε στισ Αγγλικέσ εφηµερίδεσ τησ Κύπρου για τισ σοκαριστικέσ συµπεριφορέσ των χρεώσεων και την αδιαφορία τουσ, την µαφία των ταξί (ιδιαίτερα του αεροδροµίου) και άλλα. Και ξαφνικά παρατηρούµε νέα «αστέρια» τησ πολιτικήσ ζωήσ αυτού του τÞπου. Ο ∆ήµοσ Λεµεσού έχει τα πρωτεία µεν, αλλά ίδε και τισ προσπάθειεσ του ∆ήµου Αγίασ Νάπασ (και δεν αναφερÞµαστε µÞνο στο συρτάκι για το Guinness, αλλά και για τισ άλλεσ πρωτοποριακέσ του εκδηλώσεισ, ακÞµη και το φεστιβάλ Κολοκάσι στην ∆ερύνεια). Έχουµε τώρα και τον κατατρεγµÞ των developers που είναι Þτι το χειρÞτερο για ξένουσ και άλλουσ αγοραστέσ να ανησυχούν και ασφαλώσ την αποθάρρυνση νέων επενδυτών/αγοραστών. Να τουσ καλύψουµε κάτω απÞ το χαλί; Ùχι ασφαλώσ, αλλά και απÞ την άλλη τέτοια δηµοσιÞτητα η οποία επεκτάθηκε και στο εξωτερικÞ στον ξένο τύπο, δεν θα επηρεάσει την βιοµηχανία αυτή; Εάν αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ δεν αλλάξει το σύστηµα εκλογήσ βουλευτών δεν έχουµε µέλλον διÞτι οι µεν αρχηγοί κοµµάτων διοικούν πίσω απÞ τουσ βουλευτέσ τουσ ωσ έχει το σύστηµα σήµερα, χωρίσ Þµωσ οι πολίτεσ να µπορούν να επιλέξουν τουσ καλύτερουσ απÞ το κάθε κÞµµα. Προ 8 ετών είχαµε µια προσφορά για την αγορά του Γραφείου µασ απÞ εταιρεία που εδρεύει στην Μάλτα αλλά µε Þρο Þπωσ ο Α.Λ. θα έπρεπε για 4 χρÞνια να µετακοµίσει εκεί για να «τουσ µάθουµε την δουλειά». Η προσφορά ήταν καλή αλλά απÞ την άλλη «ποιοσ ήθελε να φύγει απÞ τον Παράδεισο Κύπροσ»;). Που να ξέραµε Þτι το σύστηµα είναι τέτοιο που θα γίνει κÞλαση!!
À.°. ∞ӷ̤ÓÔ˘Ì ·ÎfiÌ· ÙËÓ Û˘ÁÁÓÒÌË ·fi ÙÔ˘˜ µÔ˘ÏÂ˘Ù¤˜ ·ÎfiÌË ÁÈ· ÙÔ ∏ƒøπ∫√ fi¯È ÙÔ˘ 6% Ô˘ ¤ÁÈÓ 90%.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
∏ ∫‡ÚÔ˜ «Î¿Ëλ Ë µÂÏÎÔ˘Ï¤ÛÎÔ˘ ʇÁÂÈ Το διοικητικÞ συµβούλιο του ∆ιεθνούσ Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου εξέτασε σε συνεδρίασή του την έκθεση που παρουσίασε η αποστολή του που είχε επισκεφθεί στα τέλη Ιουλίου την Κύπρο. ΠρÞκειται για την περιοδική επιθεώρηση τησ οικονοµίασ τησ Κύπρου, βάσει του άρθρου 4 του καταστατικού του «Ταµείου». ΟλÞκληρη η έκθεση θα δοθεί στη δηµοσιÞτητα σήµερα Τετάρτη. Σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ, θα δοθούν στη δηµοσιÞτητα τρία κείµενα. Το πρώτο θα αφορά στα βασικά στοιχεία και στα συµπεράσµατα τησ επιθεώρησησ, το δεύτερο τεχνικήσ φύσεωσ ζητήµατα, µε σοβαρÞτερα τα δηµοσιονοµικά και τα τραπεζικά και το τρίτο την τοποθέτηση του εκπροσώπου τησ Κύπρου στο συµβούλιο, πάνω στισ θέσεισ που εκφράζει η αποστολή του ∆ΝΤ. Οι ίδιεσ πηγέσ αναφέρουν Þτι η έκθεση είναι περισσÞτερο επικεντρωµένη στουσ κινδύνουσ που υπάρχουν και στα Þσα πρέπει να γίνουν και Þχι τÞσο στα Þσα έχουν ήδη επιτευχθεί απÞ την έναρξη του κυπριακού προγράµµατοσ. Γίνεται αναδροµή απÞ την περίο-
δο πριν την κρίση και πωσ αυτή δηµιουργήθηκε και γίνονται αναφορέσ στισ πολιτικέσ που ελήφθησαν µετά το πρÞγραµµα κι αυτά που πρέπει να γίνουν και το που θα πάµε. Παράλληλα υπάρχουν και µεσοπρÞθεσµεσ αναφορέσ. Στη συζήτηση που ακολούθησε, µε συµµετοχή των µελών του συµβουλίου, στισ τοποθετήσεισ επισηµάνθηκε Þτι πρέπει να τελειώσει η εκκρεµÞτητα µε τισ εκποιήσεισ για να ξεκινήσει η τακτοποίηση του ζητήµα-
τοσ των µη εξυπηρετουµένων δανείων και να µπει το πρÞγραµµα πάλι σε τροχιά (on track). Σχετικά µε την αποστολή που θα κάνει την 6η επιθεώρηση του προγράµµατοσ, δεν αναµένεται να µεταβεί στην Κύπρο πριν τισ αρχέσ του 2015. Να σηµειώσουµε Þτι εκκρεµεί ακÞµη η έγκριση τησ έκθεσησ για την πέµπτη επιθεώρηση, µαζί µε την εκταµίευση τησ δÞσησ. Πάντωσ γύρω στισ 10 Νοεµβρίου πρÞκειται να µεταβεί στην Κύπρο ολιγοµελήσ τεχνική επιτροπή του ∆ΝΤ. Θα παραµείνει περίπου µία εβδοµάδα και θα ασχοληθεί κυρίωσ µε τα ζητήµατα που εκκρεµούν ή επίκεινται, βάση των προαπαιτούµενων. Εν τω µεταξύ στην συνεδρίαση του ∆Σ του ∆ΝΤ έλαβε χώρα µία ενδιαφέρουσα στιχοµυθία µεταξύ τησ Ντέλια Βελκουλέσκου και του εκπροσώπου τησ Κύπρου, Μένο Σνελ. Η κ. Βελκουλέσκου άνοιξε την παρουσίασή τησ µε µία εκτÞσ κειµένου αναφορά στο µύθο του Ίκάρου, λέγοντασ Þτι η Κύπροσ πέταξε Þπωσ ο µυθικÞσ ήρωασ πολύ κοντά στον ήλιο, µε αποτέλεσµα να λιώσουν τα φτερά του και να πέσει στη θάλασσα
και να σκοτωθεί. Ο Μένο Σνέλ είπε στην κ. Βελκουλέσκου Þτι η Κύπροσ αντίθετα µε τον Ικαρο, επέπλευσε. Τησ υπενθύµισε ακÞµη Þτι ξέχασε να πει πωσ ο Ικαροσ το έπαθε γιατί δεν άκουσε τισ οδηγίεσ του πατέρα του ∆αίδαλου. Ùµωσ η Κύπροσ δεν είχε οδηγίεσ, γιατί το ∆ΝΤ δεν έκανε αρκετά για να αποσοβήσει την κρίση. Ο ΟλλανδÞσ εκπρÞσωποσ τησ Κύπρου στο ∆Σ του ∆ΝΤ συµπλήρωσε πάντωσ πωσ ο ίδιοσ θέλει να σκέφτεται την Κύπρο σαν τη Θεά Αφροδίτη που γεννιέται µέσα απÞ τη θάλασσα. Οι αναφορέσ αυτέσ πάντωσ, µάλλον ευχάριστο κλίµα δηµιούργησαν, παρά αντιπαράθεση. Εκ µέρουσ του εκπροσώπου τησ Κύπρου εκφράστηκαν ευχαριστίεσ προσ την Ντέλια Βελκουλέσκου, τησ οποίασ η συγκεκριµένγ παρουσίαση αποτέλεσε και την τελευταία τησ ενασχÞληση µε την Κύπρο. Ήδη έχει αναλάβει επικεφαλήσ τησ αποστολήσ του ∆ΝΤ για την Κύπρο, ο Μάρκ Λιούισ, που θα επισκεφθεί τη Λευκωσία στισ 4 Νοεµβρίου, για το συνέδριο του Economist.
∆¤ÏË √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ë ·fiÊ·ÛË ÙÔ˘ ∞ÓˆÙ¿ÙÔ˘ ÁÈ· ÂÎÔÈ‹ÛÂȘ Στισ 31 Οκτωβρίου στισ 12 το µεσηµέρι το Ανώτατο δικαστήριο αναµένεται να αποφασίσει για τα τέσσερα νοµοθετήµατα σε σχέση µε τισ εκποιήσεισ ενυπÞθηκων ακινήτων για τα οποία έκανε αναφορά ο πρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ. Ο γενικÞσ εισαγγελέασ Κώστασ Κληρίδησ, εκπροσωπώντασ τον πρÞεδρο τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, σηµείωσε Þτι δεν διαφωνεί µε τη θέσπιση νοµοθετηµάτων που να παρέχουν προστασία σε δυσπραγούντεσ. ΩστÞσο σηµείωσε πωσ τα Þποια µέτρα πρέπει να λαµβάνονται µετά απÞ εµπεριστατωµένη µελέτη και να λαµβάνεται υπÞψη ο αντίκτυποσ των διεθνών υποχρε-
ώσεων του κράτουσ και να µην προσκρούει το σύνταγµα. ΠρÞκειται για: - Τον περί τησ Αναστολήσ Είσπραξησ Οφειλών, Προστασίασ τησ Κύριασ Κατοικίασ και τησ Επαγγελµατικήσ Στέγησ και τησ Ρύθµισησ Άλλων Συναφών Θεµάτων (Προσωρινέσ ∆ιατάξεισ) ΝÞµο του 2014. - Τον περί Απαλλαγήσ Εγγυητών απÞ την Εγγύηση Εκπλήρωσησ τησ ΥπÞσχεσησ ή τησ Υποχρέωσησ Χρέουσ µετά την Εκποίηση ΕνυπÞθηκου Ακινήτου ΝÞµο του 2014. - Τον περί Απαλλαγήσ ΕνυπÞθηκου Οφειλέτη και Εγγυητών
απÞ την Εγγύηση Εκπλήρωσησ τησ ΥπÞσχεσησ ή τησ Υποχρέωσησ Χρέουσ µετά την Εκποίηση ΕνυπÞθηκου Ακινήτου ΝÞµο του 2014. - Τον περί Αναστολήσ τησ Ισχύοσ του περί Μεταβιβάσεωσ και Υποθηκεύσεωσ Ακινήτων (Τροποποιητικού) ΝÞµου του 2014, ΝÞµο του 2014. Τα νοµοθετήµατα παρέχουν δείκτη προστασίασ στισ ευάλωτεσ οµάδεσ του πληθυσµού οι οποίεσ θα βρεθούν σε δεινÞτερη θέση µετά την ψήφιση τησ νοµοθεσίασ για τισ εκποιήσεισ.
∂ÈÛÈÙ‹ÚÈ· ·fi €2 27,99 ÛÙÔ Î·ÏÔηÈÚÈÓfi Ù˘ ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ· Ù˘ Blue Air Το καλοκαιρινÞ τησ πρÞγραµµα για το 2015 ανακοίνωσε η αεροπορική εταιρεία Blue Air, το οποίο είναι τώρα διαθέσιµο στην ιστοσελίδα www.blueairweb.com , µέσω των τηλεφωνικών κέντρων ή τουσ ταξιδιωτικούσ πράκτορεσ Οι επιβάτεσ µπορούν να ταξιδέψουν σε τιµέσ που ξεκινούν απÞ 27,99 ευρώ ανά διαδροµή (οι φÞροι συµπεριλαµβάνονται, περιορισµένοσ αριθµÞσ θέσεων), στην Ρουµανία – Βουκουρέστι. Το νέο θερινÞ πρÞγραµµα ισχύει απÞ τισ 29 Μαρτίου 2015 - 25
Οκτωβρίου 2015. Η Blue Air σασ συνιστά να αρχίσετε να οργανώνετε το ταξίδι σασ για το επÞµενο έτοσ, προκειµένου να επωφεληθείτε απÞ τισ χαµηλÞτερεσ τιµέσ. Ùπωσ και κατά τα προηγούµενα έτη, το 2015 οι επιβάτεσ µπορούν να επιλέξουν να ταξιδέψουν απÞ χώρεσ Þπωσ η Κύπροσ, η Ιταλία, η Ισπανία, η Γαλλία, το Βέλγιο, η Γερµανία, η Αγγλία και η Ιρλανδία, στο Βουκουρέστι, Μπακάου και Σιµπίου. Το θερινÞ πρÞγραµµα τησ Blue Air για το 2015 περιλαµβάνει πτήσεισ απÞ Κύπρο προσ
Ρουµανία ωσ εξήσ: Λάρνακα - Βουκουρέστι, 5 πτήσεισ την εβδοµάδα
Η αγορά των εισιτηρίων µπορεί να γίνει µέσω τησ ιστοσελίδασ τησ εταιρείασ ή καλώντασ το ΤηλεφωνικÞ Κέντρο στην Κύπρο στο 22 755 300 / 24 841180 απÞ ∆ευτέρα έωσ Παρασκευή (08.00 π.µ. - 18:00µ.µ.). απÞ τουσ ταξιδιωτικούσ πράκτορεσ ή µέσω του αποκλειστικού αντιπρÞσωπου στην Κύπρο, Orthodoxou Aviation Ltd. Eπιπλέον, µπορείτε να επικοινωνείτε µε το γραφείο τησ εταιρείασ στο αεροδρÞµιο Λάρνακασ στο 24 008 490 ∆ευτέρα έωσ Κυριακή (08.00 π.µ. - 21:30µ.µ.)
™ÙȘ 30 √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ë ·ÎÚfi·ÛË ÁÈ· µÁÂÓfiÔ˘ÏÔ - ªÔ˘ÏÔ‡Ù· Καταχωρήθηκαν στο ΕπαρχιακÞ δικαστήριο Πάφου οι αγορεύσεισ απÞ τουσ δικηγÞρουσ των ΒγενÞπουλου και Μπουλούτα για την ποινική υπÞθεση αναφορικά µε τα αξιÞγραφα. Οι δικηγÞροι τησ Λαϊκήσ Τράπεζασ και του κ. Κουννή υιοθέτησαν τισ αγορεύσεισ των δύο πρώτων. Επίσησ έχει κατατεθεί γραπτή αγÞρευση απÞ τον δικηγÞρο Κώστα Μελά απÞ µέροσ του παραπονούµενου. Το ΕπαρχιακÞ δικαστήριο Πάφου επιφύλαξε την απÞφα-
ση του για τισ 08:30 το πρωί τησ 30ησ Οκτωβρίου του 2014. Τα εντάλµατα σύλληψησ εναντίον των ΒγενÞπουλου και Μπουλούτα παραµένουν ανεκτέλεστα µέχρι τισ 30 Οκτωβρίου του 2014. Ο δικαστήσ ζήτησε απÞ τον κ Κουννή να είναι παρών µε την ίδια εγγύηση. Στην προηγούµενη δικαστική διαδικασία ο δικηγÞροσ του παραπονούµενου Κώστασ Μελάσ είχε ζητήσει αναβολή τησ υπÞθεσησ για δύο µήνεσ ώστε να ξεκαθαρίσει το θέµα. Οι δικηγÞροι τησ Λαϊκήσ τράπεζασ, δεν έφεραν ένσταση
στο αίτηµα ενώ αντίθετα οι δικηγÞροι των ΒγενÞπουλου , Μπουλούτα και Κουννή , έφεραν ένσταση ισχυριζÞµενοι παραβιάσεισ των ανθρωπίνων δικαιωµάτων των πελατών τουσ για δίκαιη δίκη εντÞσ εύλογου χρÞνου. Το δικαστήριο έκρινε Þτι δεν µπορεί να δώσει άλλη αναβολή καθώσ µε βάση τα δεδοµένα που έχει ενώπιον του θεωρεί πωσ το δηµÞσιο συµφέρον δεν εξυπηρετείτο αν παραµείνει σε εκκρεµÞτητα η υπÞθεση για άλλουσ δυο µήνεσ.
∏ ∫˘‚¤ÚÓËÛË Î·Ï› ÂÂÓ‰˘Ù¤˜ ÁÈ· ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË ÙÔ˘ ∆ÚÔfi‰Ô˘˜ Μέχρι το τέλοσ Νοεµβρίου η αρµÞδια τεχνική επιτροπή θα έχει έτοιµη πρÞταση για την κρατική περιουσία που µπορεί να αξιοποιηθεί στην ευρύτερη περιοχή του ΤροÞδουσ, ενώ µέχρι το τέλοσ του 2014 αναµένεται η Κυβέρνηση να καλέσει δυνητικούσ επενδυτέσ να εκδηλώσουν ενδιαφέρον για ανάπτυξη τησ περιοχήσ, ανακοίνωσε ο ΥπουργÞσ Γεωργίασ, Φυσικών ΠÞρων και Περιβάλλοντοσ Νίκοσ Κουγιάλησ. Ùπωσ δήλωσε ο κ. Κουγιάλησ «αποφασίστηκε να αξιοποιηθεί η πλατεία ΤροÞδουσ, οι κυβερνητικέσ κατοικίεσ στην περιοχή και το µεταλλείο του Αµιάντου, ενώ υπάρχει και ένα γεοπάρκο, το οποίο σκοπεύουµε να εντάξουµε µέσα στο δίκτυο των γεοπάρκων τησ Ευρώπησ». “ΠρÞκειται για µια περιοχή που έχει µεγάλη περιβαλλοντική αξία, την οποία θέλουµε να αναδείξουµε”, ανέφερε, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι “η ανάπτυξη τησ ευρύτερησ περιοχήσ του
ΤροÞδουσ αποτελεί προεκλογική δέσµευση του Προέδρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ και µε αυτέσ τισ αποφάσεισ ξεκινά η υλοποίηση αυτήσ τησ δέσµευσησ”. ΕιδικÞτερα, ο κ. Κουγιάλησ είπε Þτι κατά τη συνεδρία εξετάστηκε το έργο που έχει επιτελέσει η αρµÞδια τεχνική επιτροπή, η οποία έχει καταγράψει την κρατική περιουσία και έχει προσδιορίσει το καθεστώσ των περιουσιών στην περιοχή του ΤροÞδουσ και πρÞσθεσε Þτι η Υπουργική Επιτροπή αποφάσισε Þπωσ ορίσει µία νέα τεχνική επιτροπή, η οποία θα συντονίσει την αξιοποίηση τησ ευρύτερησ περιοχήσ του ΤροÞδουσ. ΑναφερÞµενοσ στα βήµατα που θα ακολουθήσουν, ο κ. Κουγιάλησ είπε Þτι η νέα αυτή τεχνική επιτροπή θα εισηγηθεί στην αρµÞδια υπουργική επιτροπή “τισ περιοχέσ που µπορούν να αξιοποιηθούν και ταυτÞχρονα το Υπουργείο Συγκοινωνιών και Έργων θα ετοιµάσει έγγραφα ανοικτήσ πρÞσκλησησ
ενδιαφέροντοσ σε δυνητικούσ επενδυτέσ”, ενώ στη συνέχεια το ΥπουργικÞ Συµβούλιο θα αποφασίσει τι µπορεί ένασ ιδιώτησ επενδυτήσ να αναπτύξει. Είπε Þτι “έχει δοθεί χρÞνοσ ενÞσ µηνÞσ” σε αυτή την τεχνική επιτροπή για να υποβάλει πρÞταση για την κρατική περιουσία που µπορεί να αξιοποιηθεί στην ευρύτερη περιοχή του ΤροÞδουσ και εξέφρασε την ελπίδα Þτι “µέχρι τα τέλη Νοεµβρίου θα είµαστε έτοιµοι για να ανακοινώσουµε περισσÞτερα”. Αναφέροντασ Þτι δεν µπορεί να αναφερθεί στην αξία τησ κρατικήσ περιουσίασ που βρίσκεται στην ευρύτερη περιοχή του ΤροÞδουσ, προτού προβεί σε σχετική εκτίµηση το ΚτηµατολÞγιο, ο κ. Κουγιάλησ είπε Þτι σηµαντικÞ αυτή τη στιγµή είναι να καθοριστεί η κρατική αυτή περιουσία και να αποφασιστεί τι µπορεί να αναπτυχθεί απÞ ιδιώτεσ επενδυτέσ.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5
«∫ÔÎÙ¤ÈÏ ÙÚfiÌÔ˘» ÚÔηÏ› ·ÁÎfiÛÌÈÔ ·ÓÈÎfi ÛÙÔ˘˜ ÂÂÓ‰˘Ù¤˜ Ηµέρεσ 2008 ήρθαν στο µυαλÞ πολλών στην αγορά την περασµένη εβδοµάδα. Συγκεκριµένα την Τετάρτη µÞλισ είχε ξεκινήσει η συνεδρίαση στη Wall Street και οι δείκτεσ βυθίζονταν δίχωσ «φρένα», σηµειώνει σε άρθρο του ο Χάρησ Σαββίδησ που δηµοσίευσε η Ηµερισία. Ο S&P-500 υποχωρούσε πάνω απÞ 2%, παρασύροντασ ακÞµα χαµηλÞτερα τουσ δείκτεσ και στα ευρωπαϊκά χρηµατιστήρια. Στην αγορά οµολÞγων υπήρχε φρενίτιδα αγορών αµερικανικών Treasuries, οδηγώντασ σε λίγα λεπτά το κÞστοσ δεκαετούσ δανεισµού απÞ το 2,2% στο 1,935%. Ήταν η πρώτη φορά που επέστρεφε κάτω απÞ το 2% απÞ την άνοιξη του 2013, Þταν ξεκίνησε η συζήτηση περί σταδιακήσ διακοπήσ τησ εκτύπωσησ δολαρίων απÞ τη Fed. Ο δείκτησ µεταβλητÞτητασ των τιµών VIX, το βαρÞµετρο του φÞβου τησ Wall Street, ενισχυÞταν στα υψηλÞτερα επίπεδα τησ τελευταίασ τριετίασ. Τουσ επενδυτέσ επηρεάζει ένα... «κοκτέιλ» φÞβων, που αφορούν γεωπολιτικούσ, µακροοικονοµικούσ, πολιτικούσ αλλά και καθαρά τεχνικούσ παράγοντεσ στην πορεία των αγορών. Η ∆ευτέρα ήταν σαν ηµιαργία στη Wall Street, καθώσ εορταζÞταν η Ηµέρα του ΚολÞµβου και η αγορά οµολÞγων ήταν κλειστή. Κατά τισ πρώτεσ ώρεσ οι χρηµατιστηριακοί δείκτεσ υποχωρούσαν ελαφρά, αλλά µετά το κλείσιµο των ευρωπαϊκών αγορών οι απώλειεσ διευρύνθηκαν, οδηγώντασ τον S&P500 κάτω απÞ τον κινητÞ µέσο Þρο 200 συνεδριάσεων. ΠρÞκειται για «πυξίδα» τησ µακροπρÞθεσµησ τάσησ τησ αγοράσ και Þταν ο δείκτησ υποχωρεί κάτω απÞ αυτÞ θεωρείται ένδειξη εξÞδου. Είχε να συµβεί σχεδÞν δύο χρÞνια και αρκετοί έσπευσαν να αποδώσουν την εξέλιξη στον χαµηλÞ Þγκο συναλλαγών. Ùταν ο δείκτησ απέτυχε να ανακάµψει την επÞµενη ηµέρα, αρκετοί άρχισαν να φοβούνται το... σηµάδι. Η τεχνική ανάλυση είναι περισσÞτερο σηµαντική απÞ ποτέ για την πορεία τησ αγοράσ, καθώσ πρωτοφανήσ Þγκοσ συναλλαγών διεκπεραιώνεται απÞ υπολογιστέσ, που λειτουργούν βάσει προκαθορισµένων στρατηγικών τεχνικήσ ανάλυσησ. Η διάσπαση κάποιου κρίσιµου επιπέδου µπορεί να πυροδοτήσει κύµα πωλήσεων, Þπωσ συνέβη την άνοιξη του 2010, Þταν ο Dow Jones βυθίστηκε στο -9% χωρίσ προφανή λÞγο, για να ανακτήσει το µεγαλύτερο µέροσ των απωλειών µέσα σε λίγα λεπτά. Ο κίνδυνοσ είναι Þτι µια τέτοια υποχώρηση θα µπορούσε να διασπάσει ακÞµα πιο σηµαντικά επίπεδα τιµών (σύµφωνα πάντα µε την τεχνική ανάλυση), πυροδοτώντασ ακÞµα µεγαλύτερο κύµα πωλήσεων.
¢ÈÔÚıˆÙÈ΋ ΛÓËÛË Ο κίνδυνοσ µιασ διÞρθωσησ στην αγορά (υποχώρηση πάνω απÞ 10%), τησ πρώτησ µετά απÞ 38 µήνεσ, ενισχύεται απÞ την επικείµενη διακοπή τησ εκτύπωσησ δολαρίων απÞ τη Fed, στα τέλη του µήνα. ΑπÞ την άνοιξη του 2009, Þταν ξεκίνησε το ράλι στισ αγορέσ, ο S&P-500 έχει υποχωρήσει για σηµαντικÞ διάστηµα κάτω απÞ τον κινητÞ µέσο Þρο 200 συνεδριάσεων και έχει καταγράψει απώλειεσ άνω του 10%, µÞνο στισ περιÞδουσ που η Fed είχε διακÞψει την εκτύπωση χρήµατοσ -στα µέσα του 2010 και του 2011. ΣηµαντικÞ µέροσ του χρήµατοσ που τυπώνει η Fed είναι το καύσιµο που οδηγεί το ράλι στα χρηµατιστήρια. Ένα άλλο µέροσ καταλήγει στην πραγµατική οικονοµία, υποστηρίζοντασ την ανάκαµψη, η οποία Þµωσ αποδεικνύεται βραχύβια µÞλισ η εκτύπωση χρήµατοσ διακÞπτεται.Το ίδιο κινδυνεύει να συµβεί και σήµερα, παρά την υποχώρηση του ποσοστού ανεργίασ στο 6%. Το χειρÞτερο είναι Þτι σε φάση εξασθένησησ τησ ανάκαµψησ βρίσκονται οι αναπτυγµένεσ ασιατικέσ και η ευρωπαϊκή οικονοµία, καθώσ και οι αναδυÞµενεσ. Στην Ιαπωνία η εκτύπωση πρωτοφανούσ ποσÞτητασ χρήµατοσ κατάφερε να αποδυναµώσει το γεν αλλά η ώθηση στην οικονοµία πλέον σβήνει,
υπÞ το βάροσ και τησ αύξησησ του φÞρου κατανάλωσησ. Στην αγορά αρκετοί ελπίζουν σε νέο γύρο εκτύπωσησ γεν αλλά στο ΤÞκιο ακούγονται Þλο και περισσÞτερεσ αντίθετεσ φωνέσ. Οι ελπίδεσ για τη συνέχιση τησ εκτύπωσησ χρήµατοσ στρέφονται έτσι στην Ευρωζώνη. Ήδη η ΕΚΤ ανακοίνωσε πρÞγραµµα αγοράσ τίτλων απÞ τον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα και πολλοί θεωρούν βέβαιη τη διεύρυνση του προγράµµατοσ, ώστε να περιλάβει και τίτλουσ του ∆ηµοσίου, δηλαδή εκτύπωση χρήµατοσ. ΛÞγοσ για να συµβεί κάτι τέτοιο υπάρχει και είναι σηµαντικÞσ: οι οικονοµίεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ διολισθαίνουν η µία µετά την άλλη στην παγίδα του αποπληθωρισµού. Ήδη οι τιµέσ έχουν σταµατήσει να αυξάνονται το τελευταίο διάστηµα σε 9 απÞ τισ 18 οικονοµίεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ και στισ περισσÞτερεσ µειώνονται.
¶·Á›‰· ·ÔÏËıˆÚÈÛÌÔ‡ «Πρωταθλήτρια» είναι η Βουλγαρία, Þπου οι τιµέσ µειώθηκαν 1,4% το τελευταίο 12µηνο. ∆ιευρύνθηκε, έτσι, το σχετικÞ ανταγωνιστικÞ µειονέκτηµα τησ Ελλάδασ, Þπου οι τιµέσ µειώθηκαν «µÞνο» 1,1%. ΠρÞκειται για χαρακτηριστικÞ παράδειγµα του-σισύφειου χαρακτήρα τησ Þλησ προσπάθειασ, ο οποίοσ υπάρχει και σε µεγαλύτερη κλίµακα: Οι τιµέσ στην Ευρωζώνη µειώνονται µε στÞχο τα προϊÞντα να γίνουν φθηνÞτερα, αλλά την ίδια στιγµή ο πληθωρισµÞσ υποχωρεί Þλο και χαµηλÞτερα και στισ ασιατικέσ οικονοµίεσ. Στη Ν. Κορέα η κεντρική τράπεζα αναγκάστηκε αυτή την εβδοµάδα να µειώσει τα επιτÞκια στο 2%, καθώσ για φέτοσ προβλέπει πληθωρισµÞ µÞλισ 1,4%. Στην Κίνα ο πληθωρισµÞσ υποχώρησε τον Σεπτέµβριο στο 1,6%, για πρώτη φορά απÞ τον Ιανουάριο του 2010. Η πτώση των τιµών δεν προσφέρει, συνεπώσ, σηµαντικÞ πλεονέκτηµα στην Ευρωζώνη αλλά απειλεί να οδηγήσει στην παγίδα, Þπου έµεινε η ιαπωνική οικονοµία για σχεδÞν δύο δεκαετίεσ. Η πιστωτική επέκταση είναι εξαιρετικά χαµηλή (µÞλισ 2% Þταν την προηγούµενη δεκαετία ήταν 5% και στην Ιαπωνία περί του 4%), η οικονοµία αδυνατεί να ανακάµψει σταθερά, οι προσδοκίεσ για την πορεία του πληθωρισµού υποχωρούν και ο πληθυσµÞσ γερνά Þλο και περισσÞτερο. Ο κίνδυνοσ είναι Þτι καθώσ οι τιµέσ θα υποχωρούν, οι καταναλωτέσ θα αναβάλουν τισ αγορέσ αγαθών, οι εταιρείεσ τισ επενδύσεισ και τισ προσλήψεισ και άρα η ζήτηση σταθερά θα µειώνεται, οδηγώντασ τισ τιµέσ χαµηλÞτερα, την οικονοµία στην ύφεση και σε φαύλο κύκλο. Το χειρÞτερο για την Ευρωζώνη είναι Þτι παράλληλα οι κυβερνήσεισ επιχειρούν τη µείωση των δηµοσιονοµικών ελλειµµάτων µε πολιτικέσ λιτÞτητασ και προωθούν νεοφιλελεύθερεσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ, που πλήττουν το εισÞδηµα των εργαζοµένων και άρα την αγοραστική δύναµη των καταναλωτών. Το µείγµα είναι εκρηκτικÞ και ήδη οι σχέσεισ τησ Γερµανίασ µε το ιταλο-γαλλικÞ στρατÞπεδο περνούν κρίση. Παρίσι και Ρώµη κατέθεσαν στην Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή προϋπολογισµούσ για το 2015 που δεν τηρούν τισ δεσµεύσεισ τουσ περί δηµοσιονοµικήσ προσαρµογήσ. Υποστηρίζουν Þτι οι Βρυξέλλεσ δεν έχουν την εξουσία να τουσ αλλάξουν τουσ προϋπολογισµούσ, αλλά η καγκελάριοσ Μέρκελ υπογράµµισε
την Πέµπτη Þτι «Þλοι, και τονίζω Þλοι, θα πρέπει να σέβονται πλήρωσ τουσ ενισχυµένουσ κανÞνεσ του Συµφώνου ΣταθερÞτητασ και Ανάπτυξησ». Την εξεύρεση λύσησ θα µπορούσε να διευκολύνει η ΕΚΤ, χρηµατοδοτώντασ δηµÞσια επενδυτικά προγράµµατα µε φρεσκοτυπωµένο χρήµα. ∆εν είναι Þµωσ καθÞλου βέβαιο Þτι η Γερµανία θα το αποδεχθεί τελικά αυτÞ, γεγονÞσ που αποτελεί έναν ακÞµα παράγοντα ανησυχίασ για την αγορά. Σε Þλουσ αυτούσ τουσ φÞβουσ που γεννά η οικονοµική πραγµατικÞτητα (διακοπή εκτύπωσησ χρήµατοσ, εξασθένιση ανάπτυξησ διεθνώσ, απειλή αποπληθωρισµού, δηµοσιονοµικά προβλήµατα στην Ευρωζώνη) έρχονται να προστεθούν µια σειρά εξωγενών παραγÞντων, Þπωσ η Þξυνση των γεωπολιτικών εντάσεων ή η εξάπλωση του ιού Έµπολα, που ήδη έχει πλήξει αισθητά τισ τιµέσ των µετοχών αεροπορικών εταιρειών. Οι ανησυχίεσ φαντάζουν σηµαντικÞτερεσ απÞ ποτέ για την πορεία του ράλι στην αγορά, που πάντωσ έχει αποδειχθεί εξαιρετικά ανθεκτικÞ την τελευταία 5ετία, µε τισ κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ να «βάζουν το χέρι τουσ», Þποτε φαινÞταν Þτι τα καύσιµα τελειώνουν. Θα γίνει και τώρα το ίδιο; Να σηµειωθεί Þτι απÞ την άνοιξη του 2009, Þταν ξεκίνησε το ράλι στισ αγορέσ, ο S&P-500 έχει καταγράψει απώλειεσ άνω του 10%, µÞνο στισ περιÞδουσ που η Fed είχε διακÞψει την εκτύπωση χρήµατοσ -στα µέσα του 2010 και του 2011 Τέλοσ στουσ φÞβουσ που γεννά η οικονοµική πραγµατικÞτητα (διακοπή εκτύπωσησ χρήµατοσ, εξασθένηση ανάπτυξησ διεθνώσ, απειλή αποπληθωρισµού, δηµοσιονοµικά προβλήµατα στην Ευρωζώνη) προστίθενται µια σειρά εξωγενών παραγÞντων, Þπωσ η Þξυνση των γεωπολιτικών εντάσεων ή η εξάπλωση του ιού Έµπολα.
¶·Á·ÚÈ· ÂÓËÌÂÚˆÙÈο ÛÂÌÈÓ¿ÚÈ· ÁÈ· Ù· Â˘Úˆ·˚ο ÎÔÓ‰‡ÏÈ· Οι ευκαιρίεσ που έχουν οι Κύπριοι να πάρουν χρηµατοδÞτηση απÞ ανταγωνιστικά προγράµµατα τησ ΕΕ είναι το θέµα σειράσ ενηµερωτικών σεµιναρίων που διοργανώνουν σε Þλεσ τισ πÞλεισ τισ Κύπρου η Αντιπροσωπεία τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ και η Γενική ∆ιεύθυνση Ευρωπαϊκών Προγραµµάτων, Συντονισµού και Ανάπτυξησ. Τα σεµινάρια διοργανώνονται στο πλαίσιο τησ Þλησ προσπάθειασ που στÞχο έχει την αποτελεσµατικÞτερη αξιοποίηση απÞ πολίτεσ και φορείσ στην Κύπρο των πÞρων που είναι διαθέσιµοι απÞ τα Ανταγωνιστικά Προγράµµατα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ για την περίοδο 2014-2020. Τα σεµινάρια, που είναι ανοικτά σε Þλουσ, θα περιέχουν γενική παρουσίαση για Þλεσ τισ ευκαιρίεσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ που υπάρχουν απÞ Ταµεία και Ανταγωνιστικά Προγράµµατα τησ ΕΕ, Þπωσ µπορείτε να τα βρείτε στην διαδικτυακή Πύλη Ενηµέρωσησ
Χρηµατοδοτικών Προγραµµάτων. Το κάθε σεµινάριο θα συµπεριλαµβάνει επίσησ και εξειδικευµένη παρουσίαση για ένα συγκεκριµένο ανταγωνιστικÞ πρÞγραµµα, Þπωσ το ERASMUS+, COSME, ΟΡΙΖΟΝΤΑΣ2020, ∆ΗΜΙΟΥΡΓΙΚΗ ΕΥΡΩΠΗ, EASI και άλλα.. Το πρÞγραµµα των ενηµερωτικών σεµιναρίων έχει ωσ εξήσ: - Λάρνακα Πέµπτη 23 Οκτωβρίου 2014 ΟΡΙ-
ΖΟΝΤΑΣ2020, Έρευνα & Καινοτοµία - Πάφοσ Τρίτη 11 Νοεµβρίου 2014 ∆ΗΜΙΟΥΡΓΙΚΗ ΕΥΡΩΠΗ, ΠολιτισµÞσ & ΜΜΕ - Λευκωσία τέλη Νοεµβρίου 2014 EASI, ΑπασχÞληση & Κοινωνική Καινοτοµία - ΛεµεσÞσ Τετάρτη 3 ∆εκεµβρίου 2014 COSME, Μικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ - Λευκωσία Σάββατο 13 ∆εκεµβρίου 2014 ERASMUS+, Εκπαίδευση & Νεολαία Το πρώτο ενηµερωτικÞ σεµινάριο θα γίνει στη Στέγη Γραµµάτων και Τεχνών (δίπλα απÞ τον κινηµατογράφο REX) στη Λάρνακα την Πέµπτη, 23 Οκτωβρίου 2014 και ώρα 16:45 – 19:45, σε συνεργασία µε το Κέντρο ΠληροφÞρησησ Europe Direct Λάρνακασ και το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ. Μετά τη γενική παρουσίαση θα ακολουθήσει εξειδικευµένη παρουσίαση για το ανταγωνιστικÞ πρÞγραµµα ΟΡΙΖΟΝΤΑΣ2020 απÞ εµπειρογνώµονα τησ Γ∆ Έρευνασ & Καινοτοµίασ τησ
Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ. Το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ θα µιλήσει επίσησ για τον ρÞλο των εθνικών σηµείων επαφήσ τησ Κύπρου και συµβουλέσ για επιτυχηµένεσ προτάσεισ στο πλαίσιο του προγράµµατοσ ΟΡΙΖΟΝΤΑΣ2020. Στο σεµινάριο οι πολίτεσ και οι φορείσ/οργανισµοί θα έχουν µια σφαιρική ενηµέρωση για τισ πηγέσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ απÞ την ΕΕ και θα µπορέσουν να µιλήσουν απÞ κοντά µε τουσ αρµÞδιουσ λειτουργούσ τουσ Κράτουσ, τουσ εκπροσώπουσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ και του ΙΠΕ για τα ανταγωνιστικά Προγράµµατα και ιδιαίτερα για το ανταγωνιστικÞ πρÞγραµµα ΟΡΙΖΟΝΤΑΣ2020. Θα ενηµερωθούν απÞ πρώτο χέρι για τισ ευκαιρίεσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ που υπάρχουν σε θέµατα έρευνασ και καινοτοµίασ. Για πληροφορίεσ στο www.ec.europa.eu/cyprus
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com
∫¿ÙÈ Û¿ÈÔ ˘¿Ú¯ÂÈ ÛÙÔ ‚·Û›ÏÂÈÔ ÙˆÓ ·ÁÔÚÒÓ ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Μια εβδοµάδα ήταν αρκετή για να δεχτούν οι διεθνήσ αγορέσ ένα µοναδικÞ σφυροκÞπηµα που σε τέτοιο βίαιο και καθολικÞ ρυθµÞ είχαν να βιώσουν απÞ την εποχή τησ Lehman Brothers. Οι µετοχέσ κατέρρευσαν, τα οµÞλογα στην Ευρωπαϊκή περιφέρεια κτύπησαν υψηλÞ 4ετίασ, η εκτίναξη των Ευρωπαϊκών spreads ήταν µια «ηχώ» απÞ το παρελθÞν ενώ η µεταβλητÞτητα στισ αγορέσ θυµίζει την προ Lehman εποχή. Αν κάποιοσ ψάξει τισ αφορµέσ που πυροδÞτησαν αυτÞ το ανελέητο σφυροκÞπηµα δεν θα δυσκολευτεί και τÞσο να τισ βρει. Οι γεωπολιτικοί κίνδυνοι λÞγο τισ δράσησ των Τζιχατιστών, η αναβίωση του ψυχρού πολέµου µεταξύ δύσησ και ανατολήσ, η εξάπλωση του Ιού Έµπολα, η επιβράδυνση τησ παγκÞσµιασ οικονοµίασ είναι µÞνο µερικέσ απÞ τισ αφορµέσ που µπορεί ο οποιοσδήποτε να επικαλεστεί για την αναβίωση τησ νευρικÞτητασ στισ αγορέσ. Η πραγµατική αιτία Þµωσ που οι αγορέσ έγιναν άνω κάτω µέσα σε µία µÞλισ εβδοµάδα είναι άλλη. Οι αγορέσ εδώ και τρία ολÞκληρα χρÞνια ζούσαν µια ψευδαίσθηση, ένα «φιάσκο» πωσ η Ευρωπαϊκή κρίση χρέουσ είχε παρέλθει και αποτελούσε τελεσίδικα παρελθÞν. Μια κρίση Þµωσ που Þχι µÞνο δεν είχε τελειώσει αλλά ο ΕυρωπαϊκÞσ νÞτοσ την βίωνε καθηµερινά στην χειρÞτερη τησ µορφή. Εδώ και µια τετραετία γενικευµένησ κοινωνικήσ, οικονοµικήσ, ανθρωπιστικήσ και πολιτικήσ κρίσησ και καταστροφήσ Þπου οι λαοί τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ περιφέρειασ συνεχίζουν να βιώνουν το δράµα τησ ανεργίασ, τησ φοροκαταιγίδασ, των πτωχευµένων επιχειρήσεων, των εξώσεων, τησ απώλειασ τησ προσωπικήσ περιουσίασ και τησ παντελούσ έλλειψησ επενδυτικήσ δραστηριÞτητασ. Και Þλα αυτά επήρεια τησ εγκληµατικήσ µονοδιάστατησ γερµανικήσ λιτÞτητασ. Και το εύλογο ερώτηµα είναι:ΤÞσο αίµα, τÞσοσ κοινωνικÞσ
πÞνοσ, τÞσεσ χρεοκοπίεσ επιχειρήσεων και πολιτών τÞσο… εύκολα «ξεχνούν» ή παραβλέπουν οι αγορέσ το τροµακτικÞ «λιώσιµο» στην πραγµατική οικονοµία, τÞσο εύκολα υπερκερνούν τη µνηµειώδη δραµατική µεταβολή τησ ζωήσ δεκάδων εκατοµµυρίων οικογενειών σ’ αυτέσ τισ χώρεσ; Είναι σαφέσ Þτι η κρίση χρέουσ υπήρχε και υπάρχει και είναι πιο ισχυρή απÞ ποτέ. Η µÞνη αλλαγή επί το θετικÞτερο που έγινε είναι το δηµοσιονοµικÞ συµµάζεµα στον ΕυρωπαϊκÞ νÞτο. ΤαυτÞχρονα Þµωσ οι “τÞνοι” ρευστÞτητασ που έχουν διοχετευτεί στισ αγορέσ απÞ τισ κεντρικέσ τράπεζεσ ανά τον κÞσµο δηµιούργησαν µια τεχνητή ρευστÞτητα για τουσ λίγουσ που είχαν πρÞσβαση στα εργαλεία αυτά (τράπεζεσ, επενδυτικά ταµεία, hedge funds κτλ.), δηµιουργώντασ µια πρωτοφανή φούσκα στην παγκÞσµια οικονοµία. Μια «ψεύτικη» ευφορία που δεν ήταν πραγµατική αλλά τεχνητή, που δεν βασίστηκε σε οικονοµικά δεδοµένα αλλά σε ψευδαισθήσεισ και ενορχηστρωµένη θεσµική στρέβλωση τησ αλήθειασ. Μια καζινοποίηση τησ χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ βιοµηχανίασ, µέσω τησ δηµιουργίασ δαιδαλώδουσ επενδυτικήσ δραστηριÞτητασ, µε πολλαπλά επενδυτικά προϊÞντα αµφίβολησ υπÞστασησ και αξιοπιστίασ. Η καζινοποίηση αυτή έφερε τεράστιεσ στρεβλώσεισ στο παγκÞσµιο σύστηµα, καθώσ οι αγορέσ απέκτησαν στρεβλή δύναµη, οριοθετώντασ τισ εξελίξεισ κατά βούληση. Μια απÞλυτη κηδεµονία των αγορών, οι πολιτικέσ ηγεσίεσ – τεχνικά και ουσιαστικά – φάνηκαν αδύναµεσ να παρακολουθήσουν τισ εξελίξεισ που διατάραξαν συθέµελα την παγκÞσµια οικονοµία το 2008 µε την πτώχευση τησ Lehman Brothers και που πλέουν απειλούν να την διαταράξουν και πάλι σε πολύ χειρÞτερο βαθµÞ. Η φούσκα που δηµιουργήθηκε σε καµία περίπτωση δεν συγκρίνεται µε την αντίστοιχη του 2008 αφού εκτÞσ που είναι µεγαλύτερη είναι και σε µια εποχή που τα εργαλεία των κεντρικών τραπεζών έχουν σχεδÞν εκλείψει. Τα επιτÞκια είναι στο µηδέν, η αγορά έχει πληµυρίσει απÞ υπερπροσφορά χρήµατοσ, ο πληθωρισµÞσ είναι στον πάτο και οι τράπεζεσ είναι ανίκανεσ και ανήµπορεσ να χρηµατοδοτήσουν την οικονοµία. ΑυτÞσ είναι και ο βασικÞσ λÞγοσ που οι πολιτικÞ ηγέτεσ ανά το παγκÞσµιο τρέµουν στην ιδέα το τι θα ακολουθήσει µε το σπάσιµο αυτήσ τησ φούσκα που οι ίδιοι επέτρεψαν να δηµιουργηθεί. Είδη αυτή την εβδοµάδα στη Σύνοδο Κορυφήσ τησ 23ησ Οκτωβρίου, οι Ευρωπαίοι ηγέτεσ που ταρακουνήθηκαν απÞ
™Â ·ÓÔ‰È΋ ÔÚ›· ÙÔ Â˘ÚÒ ™Ù·‡ÚÔ˜ Ã’’ ÃÚÈÛÙfi fiÊ ÊË Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd, Treasury Division Το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα βρίσκεται σε ανοδική αντίδραση την τελευταία βδοµάδα έναντι του αµερικανικού δολαρίου καθώσ τύγχανε διαπραγµάτευσησ νωρίσ χθεσ το απÞγευµα τησ Τρίτησ στο 1,2830. Θετικά επηρέασε το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα η ανακοίνωση Þτι η ΕΚΤ ξεκίνησε τισ αγορέσ καλυµµένων οµολÞγων. Ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών των ΗΠΑ ανέφερε Þτι η καθοδική κίνηση τησ ισοτιµίασ ευρώ/δολάριο τουσ τελευταίουσ µήνεσ αντικατοπτρίζει περισσÞτερο τη διαφορά τησ προοπτικήσ των δύο οικονοµιών παρά πολιτικέσ επίτευξησ ανταγωνιστικού πλεονεκτήµατοσ του ευρώ έναντι του δολαρίου. Στην Ευρωζώνη το ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών συναλλαγών εποχικά προσαρµοσµένο κατέγραψε τον Αύγουστο πλεÞνασµα 18,9 δισ ευρώ έναντι 21,6 δισ ευρώ τον Ιούλιο. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, το εποχικά προσαρµοσµένο εµπορικÞ πλεÞνασµα ανήλθε τον Αύγουστο σε υψηλÞ 15,8 δισ ευρώ (εκτίµηση: 13,3 δισ ευρώ, Ιούλιοσ: 12,7 δισ ευρώ) απÞ το Μάρτιο του 2013. Σύµφωνα µε την τελική µέτρηση, επιβεβαιώθηκε Þτι ο πληθωρισµÞσ στην Ευρωζώνη διαµορφώθηκε το Σεπτέµβριο σε χαµηλÞ 0,3% απÞ τον Οκτώβριο του 2009. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Κεντρικήσ Τραπέζησ τησ Γερµανίασ (Weidmann) εκτιµά Þτι o κίνδυνοσ εµφάνισησ αποπληθωρισµού στην Ευρωζώνη είναι χαµηλÞσ. Ανέφερε επίσησ, Þτι ορισµένα προσφάτωσ ανακοινωθέντα µακροοικονοµικά δεδοµένα στη Γερµανία ήταν απογοητευτικά, ωστÞσο δεν θεωρεί Þτι χρειάζεται να εφαρµοστεί πρÞγραµµα τÞνωσησ τησ γερµανικήσ οικονοµίασ. Ο δείκτησ τιµών εισαγωγών στη Γερµανία παρουσίασε σε ετήσια βάση το Σεπτέµβριο Þπωσ αναµενÞταν τη µεγαλύτερη µείωση -1% ( Αύγουστοσ: -0,8%) απÞ τον Ιανουάριο. Στισ ΗΠΑ οι οικοδοµικέσ άδειεσ παρουσίασαν το Σεπτέµβριο σε µηνιαία βάση αύξηση κατά 1,5% (εκτίµηση: 2,7%, Αύγουστοσ: -5,1%) µε αποτέλεσµα να διαµορφωθούν στισ 1.018.000 (εκτίµηση: 1.030.000, Αύγουστοσ: 1.003.000). Οι νέεσ κατοικίεσ ενισχύθηκαν σε µηνιαία βάση το Σεπτέµβριο κατά 6,3% (εκτίµηση: 5,4%, Αύγουστοσ: -12,8%) και ανήλθαν στισ 1.017.000 (εκτίµηση: 1.008.000,
Αύγουστοσ: 957.000). Σύµφωνα µε την αρχική µέτρηση, ο δείκτησ καταναλωτικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ του Πανεπιστηµίου του Michigan διαµορφώθηκε τον Οκτώβριο σε υψηλÞ (86,4, εκτίµηση: 84, Σεπτέµβριοσ: 84,6) απÞ τον Ιούλιο του 2007. O ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Fed Boston (Rosengren) δήλωσε Þτι η Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ θα πρέπει να ολοκληρώσει το πρÞγραµµα ποσοτικήσ επέκτασησ τον Οκτώβριο εκτÞσ εάν υπάρξει κάποια δραµατική εξέλιξη. ΠρÞσθεσε Þτι µε βάση την τρέχουσα οικονοµική κατάσταση στισ ΗΠΑ, εξακολουθεί να είναι πιθανή η αύξηση του επιτοκίου αναφοράσ εντÞσ του 2015. Στισ ΗΠΑ οι αιτήσεισ για επιδÞµατα ανεργίασ υποχώρησαν την εβδοµάδα έωσ 11 Οκτωβρίου σε χαµηλÞ 264.000 (εκτίµηση: 290.000, προηγούµενη εβδοµάδα: 287.000) 14 ετών. Η βιοµηχανική παραγωγή στισ ΗΠΑ κατέγραψε σε µηνιαία βάση το Σεπτέµβριο τη µεγαλύτερη ενίσχυση 1% (εκτίµηση: 0,4%, Αύγουστοσ: -0,2%) απÞ το Μάιο του 2010 και σε ετήσια βάση αυξήθηκε κατά 4,3% (Αύγουστοσ: 4%). O δείκτησ µεταποίησησ Philadelphia Fed ανήλθε τον Οκτώβριο στισ 20,7 µονάδεσ (εκτίµηση: 19,8, Σεπτέµβριοσ: 22,5) καθώσ τον Αύγουστο οι καθαρέσ εισροέσ µακροπρÞθεσµων επενδύσεων χαρτοφυλακίου διαµορφώθηκαν στα $52,1 δισ. (Ιούλιοσ: -$18,6 δισ.).
την ξαφνική επιστροφή τησ κρίσησ χρέουσ, θα προσπαθήσουν για ακÞµη µια φορά να αποκαταστήσουν την εµπιστοσύνη των επενδυτών. Προσπάθεια βεβαίωσ βγαλµένη απÞ το παρελθÞν αφού µε τουσ αδιάλλακτουσ Γερµανούσ να συνεχίζουν στο γνωστÞ τροπάριο περί µεταρρυθµίσεων και αυστηρήσ δηµοσιονοµικήσ πειθαρχίασ η οποιαδήποτε προσπάθεια θα παραµείνει και πάλι στισ «ψεύτικεσ» υποσχέσεισ. Το πιο πιθανÞν η οποιαδήποτε ελπίδα διάσωσησ των αγορών ή καλύτερα παράτασησ τησ κατάρρευσησ τουσ θα έρθει και πάλι εξ Αµερικήσ. Τελεσίδικη λύση θα δοθεί µÞνο αν το πρÞβληµα χρέουσ λυθεί συνολικά. Το παγκÞσµιο σύστηµα, θα πρέπει να κάτσει σε ένα τραπέζι και να δει συνολικά το χρέοσ των χωρών. Ένα γενικευµένο και οικουµενικÞ haircut είναι η λύση, καθώσ καµιά χώρα δεν µπορεί να αποπληρώσει το χρέοσ τησ. H Ιταλία χρωστά πάνω απÞ 2 τρισ. ευρώ, ενώ αστρονοµικÞ είναι το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ των ΗΠΑ. Γενικευµένο haircut, επανεκκίνηση σε άλλεσ βάσεισ, µακριά απÞ την κηδεµονία τησ χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ βιοµηχανίασ είναι το επÞµενο στοίχηµα τησ παγκÞσµιασ οικονοµίασ! Ένα στοίχηµα στροφήσ και… επιστροφήσ σε πιο... πραγµατικά και ρεαλιστικά οικονοµικά δεδοµένα! ΕπÞµενο κεντρικÞ στοίχηµα παγκÞσµια λοιπÞν είναι η µετάβαση σε πιο... πραγµατικέσ οικονοµικέσ συνθήκεσ.
µÁ¿ÏÙ selfie Ì ÙÔ Ó¤Ô 10Â˘Úˆ Î·È ÎÂÚ‰›ÛÙ ¤Ó· iPad Σε διαγωνισµÞ µε αφορµή την κυκλοφορία του νέου χαρτονοµίσµατοσ των 10 ευρώ προχωρά η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα, προτρέποντασ τουσ πολίτεσ να βγάλουν µία selfie µε το χαρτονÞµισµα και να την «ανεβάσουν» στο Twitter ή το Instagram. Ùπωσ ανακοίνωσε η ΕΚΤ “Βγάλτε selfie µε το νέο 10ευρώ και κερδίστε ένα iPad”. Σύµφωνα µε τουσ Þρουσ του διαγωνισµού, οι πολίτεσ µπορούν να βγάλουν µία selfie κρατώντασ το νέο χαρτονÞµισµα των 10 ευρώ και στη συνέχεια να ανεβάσουν στο Twitter ή το Instagram την φωτογραφία τουσ µε το σχετικÞ hashtag #mynew10 και να συµπληρώσουν την φÞρµα συµµετοχήσ στην ιστοσελίδα http://www.nea-trapezogrammatia-euro.eu/. Ο διαγωνισµÞσ ισχύει µέχρι τισ 30 Νοεµβρίου και οι πέντε νικητέσ θα κερδίσουν απÞ ένα iPad.
∂Í·ÁÔÚ¿ ‰‡Ô ·ÈÔÏÈÎÒÓ ¿ÚÎˆÓ ·fi ÙË BlackRock Η βρετανική Renewable Energy Generation πώλησε δύο αιολικά πάρκα στην BlackRock, έναντι τιµήµατοσ 57,8 εκατ. δολαρίων. Η αγοραπωλησία αφορά τα αιολικά St. Breock, ισχύοσ 10 MW, στην περιοχή τησ Κορνουάλησ και Ramsey II, ισχύοσ 8 MW, στο Cambridgshire. Στο πλαίσιο τησ συµφωνίασ, η BlackRock θα αναλάβει την αποπληρωµή χρέουσ 21 εκατ. λιρών που αφορούν τα έργα, ενώ η Renewable Energy Generation θα λάβει µετρητά 13,1 εκατ. λίρεσ και άλλεσ 1,9 εκατ. λίρεσ εν ευθέτω χρÞνο. Ùσον αφορά τη βρετανική εταιρεία Renewable Energy Generation, ανακοινώθηκε Þτι θα επενδύσει το ρευστÞ τησ σε νέα έργα αιολικήσ ενέργειασ και βιοµάζασ.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
financialmirror.com | ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7
™ÙË §Â˘ÎˆÛ›· ÛÙȘ 7 ¡ÔÂÌ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ô ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ ™·Ì·Ú¿˜ ™˘Ó¯›˙ÔÓÙ·È ÔÈ ÙÔ˘ÚÎÈΤ˜ ÚÔÎÏ‹ÛÂȘ ÂÓÙfi˜ Ù˘ ΢Úȷ΋˜ ∞√∑ Να «ανακρούσει πρύµναν», κάλεσε την Αγκυρα, ο Ευάγγελοσ Βενιζέλοσ, µε αφορµή την προκλητική παρουσία του τουρκικού ερευνητικού σκάφουσ «Barbaros» εντÞσ τησ κυπριακήσ ΑΟΖ, τονίζοντασ Þτι «δυστυχώσ, η Τουρκία δεν άκουσε τη φωνή τησ διεθνούσ κοινÞτητασ, τη φωνή του ΟΗΕ, τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ και τησ διεθνούσ νοµιµÞτητασ». Στη «σκιά» τησ νέασ τουρκικήσ πρÞκλησησ ο Αντώνησ Σαµαράσ θα επισκεφθεί τη Λευκωσία στισ 7 Νοεµβρίου, προκειµένου να συντονιστούν οι κινήσεισ των δύο χώρων, ενÞψει τησ τριµερούσ συνάντησησ κορυφήσ Ελλάδασ - Κύπρου - Αιγύπτου, που θα πραγµατοποιηθεί στο Κάιρο δύο ηµέρεσ αργÞτερα και αφορά τον καθορισµÞ τησ κοινήσ ΑΟΖ των τριών χωρών, εξέλιξη που θα επισφραγίσει και τη συνεργασία τουσ στον ενεργειακÞ τοµέα. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε άρθρο του ∆ηµήτρη Τσιούφου (Hµερισία) ο Κύπριοσ κυβερνητικÞσ εκπρÞσωποσ Νίκοσ Χριστοδουλίδησ υπογράµµισε πωσ οι διαβουλεύσεισ µεταξύ των τριών χωρών βρίσκονται ήδη σε προχωρηµένο στάδιο και στο πλαίσιο θα υπάρξει συνάντηση, στισ 29 Οκτωβρίου στη Λευκωσία, σε επίπεδο υπουργών Εξωτερικών για προεργασία τησ συνάντησησ του Καΐρου. Την ώρα που προετοιµάζεται η τριµερήσ συνάντηση του Καΐρου, στη Λευκωσία επικρατεί έντονοσ προβληµατισµÞσ και αγανάκτηση µετά τη νέα προκλητική κίνηση τησ Τουρκίασ να στείλει το σεισµογραφικÞ σκάφοσ «Barbaros» στο οικÞπεδο 3 τησ κυπριακήσ ΑΟΖ, επιχειρώντασ να διατηρήσει το κλίµα έντασησ στην περιοχή. Το «Barbaros», συνοδευÞµενο απÞ δύο υποστηρικτικά πλοία, εισήλθε, εντÞσ τησ
κυπριακήσ ΑΟΖ, ενώ σε απÞσταση 5 µιλίων νοτιοανατολικά απÞ τη γεώτρηση βρίσκεται ήδη και τουρκική φρεγάτα, καθώσ απÞ το πρωί τησ ∆ευτέρασ πραγµατοποιούνται ασκήσεισ στη θαλάσσια περιοχή µεταξύ Κύπρου και Συρίασ, απÞ τη Ρωσία, οι οποίεσ αναµένεται να ολοκληρωθούν στισ 23 Οκτωβρίου. Το γεγονÞσ προκάλεσε την αντίδραση του υπουργού Άµυνασ τησ Κύπρου, Χρ. Φωκαΐδη, ο οποίοσ τÞνισε Þτι «πρÞκειται για µια προκλητική και παράνοµη ενέργεια που παραβιάζει κατάφωρα το διεθνέσ και ευρωπαϊκÞ δίκαιο και υπονοµεύει την ασφάλεια και σταθερÞτητα στην περιοχή». Έντονη ήταν ταυτÞχρονα και η αντίδραση τησ Αθήνασ, µε τον αντιπρÞεδρο τησ κυβέρνησησ και υπουργÞ
Εξωτερικών Ευάγγελο Βενιζέλο να επισηµαίνει πωσ «η Τουρκία δυστυχώσ δεν άκουσε τη φωνή τησ διεθνούσ κοινÞτητασ, του ΟΗΕ, τησ Ε.Ε. και τησ διεθνούσ νοµιµÞτητασ», αφού, Þπωσ υπογράµµισε, η πραγµατοποίηση ερευνών στη συγκεκριµένη περιοχή «συνιστούν βάναυση προσβολή του διεθνούσ δικαίου τησ θάλασσασ, γιατί στην περιοχή αυτή δεν υπάρχει καµία αµφισβήτηση για την οριοθέτηση τησ υφαλοκρηπίδασ και τησ αποκλειστικήσ οικονοµικήσ ζώνησ τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ». Η Τουρκία, πρÞσθεσε ο κ. Βενιζέλοσ, «δεν διεκδικεί εκεί κάτι. Φαίνεται να ενεργεί εξ ονÞµατοσ του τουρκοκυπριακού ψευδοκράτουσ. Άρα, ο πυρήνασ τησ υπÞθεσησ είναι η άρνηση τησ Τουρκίασ να αναγνωρίσει την υπÞσταση και τη διεθνή νοµική προσωπικÞτητα τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ», τονίζοντασ Þτι µε τη άρνησή τησ αυτή «θέτει η ίδια ανυπέρβλητα εµπÞδια στην ευρωπαϊκή τησ πορεία και προοπτική». Γι? αυτÞ, κατέληξε ο αντιπρÞεδροσ τησ κυβέρνησησ, «καλούµε την Τουρκία να ανακρούσει πρύµναν, Þχι µÞνον το πλοίο, αλλά και η εξωτερική τησ πολιτική. Να κινηθεί µέσα στο πλαίσιο τησ διεθνούσ νοµιµÞτητασ, να υποβοηθήσει και να υποστηρίξει τισ διαπραγµατεύσεισ στην Κύπρο, να κινηθεί µέσα στο πλαίσιο τησ νοµιµÞτητασ που είναι το ασφαλέσ πλαίσιο και για τισ διµερείσ µασ σχέσεισ αλλά και για την ευρωπαϊκή τησ πορεία». Η προκλητική στάση τησ Τουρκίασ αναµένεται να εξεταστεί και στο Συµβούλιο Γενικών Υποθέσεων τησ Ε.Ε., καθώσ και στο άτυπο συµβούλιο υπουργών Εξωτερικών στην οποία µετέχει ο κ. Βενιζέλοσ.
¶ˆÏËÙ‹ÚÈÔ ÛÙÔ Hilton ∞thens ·fi ÙËÓ Alpha Bank ÁÈ· €1 180 ÂÎ. ΕντÞσ του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ θα κλείσει η συµφωνία πώλησησ του ξενοδοχείου Hilton στην Αθήνα απÞ την Alpha Bank σύµφωνα µε το πρακτορείο Bloomberg. Το πρακτορείο αναφέρει Þτι η Alpha Bank σχεδιάζει να πουλήσει το ξενοδοχείο έναντι 180 εκ. ευρώ. Επενδυτέσ Þπωσ η Oaktree Capital Group LLC και το fund Jermyn Street Real Estate, έχουν επενδύσει σε ξενοδοχειακά assets σε Þλη την Ελλάδα λÞγω τησ ανÞδου του τουρισµού στη χώρα. Οι συζητήσεισ έχουν ολοκληρωθεί και το τίµηµα που έχει συµφωνηθεί είναι υψηλÞτερο απÞ τη χρηµατιστηριακή αξία. ΑυτÞ σηµαίνει Þτι η Alpha Bank θα εγγράψει λογιστική υπεραξία απÞ την πώληση των µετοχών που κατέχει στην Ιονική Ξενοδοχειακή, εταιρία που διαχειρίζεται το Hilton. Σήµερα η
∂ÏÏËÓÈÎfi startup ÂÍ·ÁfiÚ·Û ÂÙ·ÈÚ›· ·fi ÙÔ ÃÔÓÁÎ ∫ÔÓÁÎ Στο ελληνικÞ ανθρώπινο δυναµικÞ αποφάσισε να επενδύσει η PCCW Global, ένασ απÞ τουσ σηµαντικÞτερουσ «παίκτεσ» παγκοσµίωσ στον χώρο των διεθνών τηλεπικοινωνιακών λύσεων και θυγατρική τησ Hong Kong Telecom (HKT), προχωρώντασ στην εξαγορά τησ Crypteia Networks. Η τελευταία είναι µία εταιρεία που ιδρύθηκε το 2011 στην Αθήνα και προσφέρει προηγµένεσ λύσεισ ασφάλειασ πληροφοριακών συστηµάτων, έχοντασ ήδη περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 150 εγκαταστάσεισ στη Βρετανία, τη Γερµανία και την Ελλάδα. Σηµειωτέον πωσ πρÞκειται για µία απÞ τισ λιγοστέσ εξαγορέσ ελληνικού startup που κινείται στον χώρο τησ τεχνολογίασ απÞ ξένο Þµιλο που έχει πραγµατοποιηθεί.
TÔ ›‰ÈÔ «Ú¿ÛÈÓ˜» ∂ÏÏ¿‰· °ÂÚÌ·Ó›· Υπερβαίνει τον µέσο Þρο τησ Ε.Ε. το ποσοστÞ κάλυψησ των φωτοβολταϊκών ωσ προσ τη ζήτηση ηλεκτρικήσ ενέργειασ στην Ελλάδα, καταλαµβάνοντασ µία απÞ τισ µεγαλύτερεσ συµµετοχέσ ανάµεσα σε 17 χώρεσ. Σύµφωνα µε τη φετινή ειδική έκθεση του ΙΕΑ PVPS Programme για τισ τάσεισ στισ φωτοβολταϊκέσ εφαρµογέσ, η Ελλάδα κάλυψε το 2013 σχεδÞν το 6% τησ ετήσιασ ζήτησησ ηλεκτρισµού χάρη στα φωτοβολταϊκά, ενώ, απÞ τισ χώρεσ αναφοράσ, η Γερµανία βρίσκεται λίγο πιο πάνω, µε ποσοστÞ άνω του 6% και η Ιταλία µε 7,6%. Η έρευνα, η οποία αποτελεί πρωτοβουλία του ∆ιεθνή Οργανισµού Ενέργειασ (ΙΕΑ) και που τιτλοφορείται «Trends in Photovoltaic Applications», το minimum τησ εγκατάστασησ φωτοβολταϊκών που έγιναν ωσ τα τέλη του 2013 ήταν 136,5 GW. Σε ευρωπαϊκÞ επίπεδο, η 19η έκθεση αναφέρει Þτι τα φωτοβολταϊκά κάλυψαν περίπου το 3% τησ συνολικήσ ζήτησησ για ηλεκτρική ενέργεια κατά το εξεταζÞµενο έτοσ, ενώ η συµβολή τουσ σε παγκÞσµιο επίπεδο ανήλθε πέρυσι στο 0,87%.
κεφαλαιοποίηση τησ εταιρίασ ανέρχεται στα 93 εκ., ενώ στισ αρχέσ του έτουσ αποτιµώνταν πάνω απÞ 100 εκ. ευρώ. Ο κύκλοσ εργασιών του Hilton διαµορφώθηκε στα 26,1 εκ. ευρώ έναντι 23,4 εκ. ευρώ το 2012, καταγράφοντασ αύξηση εσÞδων σε Þλεσ τισ βασικέσ πηγέσ και παρά την συνεχιζÞµενη ύφεση στην εσωτερική αγορά, την συρρίκνωση τησ καταναλωτικήσ δαπάνησ που εξακολουθεί να επηρεάζει αρνητικά τα έσοδα των εστιατορίων, καφέ κτλ. Το 2013, τα καθαρά κέρδη ανήλθαν σε 800,000ευρώ έναντι ζηµιών ύψουσ 4,1 εκ. ευρώ το 2012, ενώ τα κέρδη προ φÞρων, χρηµατοδοτικών, επενδυτικών αποτελεσµάτων και αποσβέσεων διαµορφώθηκαν σε 4,1 εκατ. ευρώ έναντι 1,3 εκ. ευρώ πέρυσι.
∏ ·ÁÔÚ¿ «ÂÂÓ‰‡ÂÈ» Û ıÂÙÈο ·ÔÙÂϤÛÌ·Ù· ÁÈ· Ù· stress tests Θετική έκβαση για τα stress tests των ελληνικών τραπεζών προεξοφλεί το ελληνικÞ χρηµατιστήριο. Το επενδυτικÞ ενδιαφέρον επικεντρώνεται απÞ τισ αρχέσ τησ εβδοµάδασ σχεδÞν αποκλειστικά στισ ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ. Μια πρώτη γεύση για τα αποτελέσµατα θα υπάρξει αύριο Πέµπτη. Οι τράπεζεσ θα αποκτήσουν εικÞνα για τα αποτελέσµατα που η κάθε µια πέτυχε στην άσκηση προσοµοίωσησ (η ώρα δεν έχει ανακοινωθεί) σε προκαταρκτικÞ επίπεδο, ενώ η ΕΚΤ διατηρεί το δικαίωµα να µεταβάλει τα αποτελέσµατα ωσ την τελική ανακοίνωσή τουσ. Αυτή θα πραγµατοποιηθεί (στισ 13.00 ώρα Κύπρου), την Κυριακή 26 Οκτωβρίου. Έγκυροι παράγοντεσ, συνεκτιµώντασ και τισ τελευταίεσ προβλέψεισ µεγάλων διεθνών οίκων αλλά και τισ συγκλίνουσεσ πληροφορίεσ, µιλούν για ένα αποτέλεσµα το οποίο θα είναι απολύτωσ διαχειρίσιµο απÞ το ελληνικÞ τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα - µε βάση τισ ευχέρειεσ που αυτÞ διαθέτει. Η εικÞνα για τισ τέσσερισ συστηµικέσ τράπεζεσ δεν θα είναι η ίδια, σηµειώνουν οι αναλυτέσ, ωστÞσο καµία απÞ αυτέσ δεν θα χρειαστεί να απευθυνθεί στο Ταµείο για να καλύψει το οποιοδήποτε κεφαλαιακÞ κενÞ τυχÞν παρουσιαστεί. Τα κεφαλαιακά αποθέµατα θα αναζητηθούν κατ’ αρχήν απÞ το πρÞγραµµα αναδιάρθρωσησ των συστηµικών τραπεζών και κατά δεύτερον απÞ τον αναβαλλÞµενο φÞρο, σε Þποιεσ περιπτώσεισ υπάρξει ανάγκη. Οι τρεισ απÞ τισ τέσσερεισ συστηµικέσ τράπεζεσ (Alpha Bank, ETE και Eurobank) ανακοίνωσαν ήδη γενική συνέλευση, Þπωσ προβλέπει το νέο θεσµικÞ πλαίσιο για τον σκοπÞ αυτÞν, προκειµένου να είναι έτοιµεσ, ακÞµη και εάν δεν κάνουν χρήση τησ ευχέρειασ που δίνει ο νÞµοσ για µετατροπή του αναβαλλÞµενου φÞρου σε φορολογική απαίτηση. Είναι πολύ πιθανÞν, εφÞσον ο λογαριασµÞσ κινηθεί στα εκτιµώµενα χαµηλά επίπεδα, να µην χρειαστούν αυξήσεισ µετοχικού
κεφαλαίου. Παρά το γεγονÞσ, λοιπÞν, πωσ κανένασ τραπεζικÞσ παράγοντασ δεν γνωρίζει µε ακρίβεια τι θα δείξουν οι ασκήσεισ προσοµοίωσησ στο ακραίο τουσ σενάριο, αίσθηση τησ κατάστασησ φαίνεται πωσ ωσ έναν βαθµÞ υπάρχει. Οι ενδείξεισ λοιπÞν συγκλίνουν στην άποψη Þτι τα αποτελέσµατα των πανευρωπαϊκών stress tests θα είναι «διαχειρίσιµα» για τισ ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ και οι πρÞσθετεσ κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ - σε Þποιεσ περιπτώσεισ υπάρξουν - θα είναι «σχετικά περιορισµένεσ». ΕφÞσον οι παραπάνω πληροφορίεσ επαληθευθούν, κατ’ αρχήν, τα 11,5 δισ του Ταµείου Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ θα µείνουν αλώβητα και Þπωσ Þλα δείχνουν θα αποτελέσουν αντικείµενο διαπραγµάτευσησ στη συνολική συζήτηση για το χρέοσ τησ χώρασ. Το στοιχείο αυτÞ λειτουργεί καταλυτικά για το Χρηµατιστήριο, ιδιαίτερα εφÞσον δεν απαιτηθούν αυξήσεισ µετοχικού κεφαλαίου απÞ την πλευρά των συστηµικών τραπεζών. Κάτι τέτοιο προδιαγράφει πωσ οι τιµέσ των τραπεζών, ιδιαίτερα απÞ τα τρέχοντα χαµηλά τουσ επίπεδα, έχουν σηµαντικÞ περιθώριο ανÞδου. ΣυγχρÞνωσ µία τέτοια εικÞνα θα διευκολύνει την πρÞσβαση των πιστωτικών ιδρυµάτων στη διατραπεζική αγορά, στοιχείο το οποίο σηµαίνει περαιτέρω µείωση τησ εξάρτησησ των ελληνικών τραπεζών απÞ την ΕΚΤ. Τα παραπάνω, σε συνδυασµÞ µε τα µέτρα Ντράγκι για περιορισµÞ του «κουρέµατοσ» στην αξία των τίτλων που γίνονται αποδεκτοί ωσ ενέχυρα απÞ την ΕΚΤ, θα απελευθερώσει ρευστÞτητα τησ τάξεωσ των 10-15 δισ ευρώ, η οποία θα διοχετευτεί στην πραγµατική οικονοµία. ΚατÞπιν αυτού, βάσιµα διατυπώνεται η εκτίµηση πωσ ανοίγει ο δρÞµοσ για επιστροφή στην οµαλή χρηµατοδÞτηση. Σε αυτÞ το θέµα αναφέρεται και πρÞσφατη έκθεση τησ Deutsche Bank, η οποία υπολογίζει το Þφελοσ απÞ τα µέτρα Ντράγκι στα 12 δισ ευρώ.
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22 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
8 | ΑΓΟΡΑ | financialmirror.com
™Î·ÚÌÔ‡ÙÛÔ˜ ÂÓ·ÓÙ›ÔÓ §·˙¿ÚÔ˘ ÁÈ· ÙË Ó¤· η̿ÓÈ· Ù˘ Lidl To “KARE Design”
ÛÙÔ The ªall of Cyprus
Παρουσιάστηκε και επίσηµα η νέα καµπάνια γαστρονοµίασ τησ Lidl, σε συνεργασία µε δύο κορυφαίουσ σεφ, τον ∆ηµήτρη Σκαρµούτσο και τον Λευτέρη Λαζάρου. Οι δύο σεφ ξεκίνησαν τουσ… διαξιφισµούσ τουσ, σε µια φαντασµαγορική βραδιά πληµµυρισµένη απÞ γαστρονοµικέσ απολαύσεισ, την παρουσίαση τησ οποίασ ανέλαβε η Μαίρη Συνατσάκη. Οι καλεσµένοι απÞλαυσαν ένα µενού που επιµελήθηκαν οι δύο σεφ και ενηµερώθηκαν για τη νέα καµπάνια τησ Lidl, kouzinalidl.com.cy! Η κουζίνα πρέπει να είναι µοντέρνα, ενδιαφέρουσα, να εµπνέει και µερικέσ φορέσ να διεγείρει την περιέργεια. Έτσι ακριβώσ είναι η κουζίνα τησ Lidl, στην οποία κάθε εβδοµάδα, οι δύο χαρισµατικοί σεφ µασ, ∆ηµήτρησ Σκαρµούτσοσ και Λευτέρησ Λαζάρου, θα µασ προτείνουν νέεσ, δοκιµασµένεσ, εµπνευσµένεσ απÞ το ταλέντο και τη φαντασία τουσ, ιδέεσ για µοναδικέσ γαστρονοµικέσ εµπειρίεσ! Σκαρµούτσοσ εναντίον Λαζάρου! Μια αναµέτρηση που θα αλλάξει τον τρÞπο που µαγειρεύουµε. Μαγειρέψτε και ψηφίστε! Κάθε εβδοµάδα µε καινούριεσ συνταγέσ, κάθε εβδοµάδα µε νέα υλικά και γευστικέσ εµπειρίεσ! Οι δύο σεφ ωσ επικεφαλήσ κάθε οικογένειασ, θα προσπαθούν να µασ πείσουν Þτι η δική τουσ οικογένεια µαγειρεύει καλύτερα!
To “KARE Design” είµαι µια παγκÞσµια αλυσίδα µε πολυάριθµα καταστήµατα, σχεδιαστέσ και κατασκευαστέσ σε περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 60 χώρεσ. Το ΚΑRE αποτελείται απÞ µια οµάδα µε καινοτÞµεσ ιδέεσ, επιχειρηµατικÞ πνεύµα και ατέρµονο ενθουσιασµÞ, η οποία δηµιούργησε περισσÞτερα απÞ 4500 πρωτοποριακά έπιπλα και αξεσουάρ για το σπίτι. Κάθε χρÞνο, δηµιουργούνται 1500 νέα designs γεµάτα εκπλήξεισ. Στην Κύπρο, το KARE αντιπροσωπεύεται απÞ τη Diexodos Group µε τέσσερα καταστήµατα, στη Λευκωσία, στη ΛεµεσÞ, στην Πάφο και τώρα στο The Μall of Cyprus. ΠερισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στο www.karedesign.com
°ÈÔÚÙ‹ Ù˘ ∂ÏÈ¿˜ ÁÈ· 6Ë ¯ÚÔÓÈ¿ ·fi ÙÔ √Ϥ·ÛÙÚÔ Για 6η συνεχÞµενη χρονιά, το βιολογικÞ ελαιÞλαδο Ολέαστρο διοργάνωσε την Κυριακή, 5 Οκτωβρίου, τη Γιορτή τησ Ελιάσ, τιµώντασ έτσι το ευλογηµένο αυτÞ δέντρο. Η Γιορτή τησ Ελιάσ διεξήχθηκε στο εντυπωσιακÞ Πάρκο Ελιάσ ‘Ολέαστρο’, στην Ανώγυρα, το οποίο φιλοξένησε µικρούσ και µεγάλουσ που βρέθηκαν στον χώρο για να τιµήσουν κι αυτοί την ελιά. Ùσοι παρευρέθηκαν στο πάρκο είχαν την ευκαιρία να παρακολουθήσουν επίδειξη ζαχαροπλαστικήσ µε ελαιÞλαδο απÞ τον εκπαιδευτή µαγειρικήσ Ιωάννη Βασιλείου, να διασκεδάσουν µε παραδοσιακά παιγνίδια, να επισκεφθούν την έκθεση παραδοσιακών επαγγελµάτων και καλλιτεχνών απÞ την Ανώγυρα και να διασκεδάσουν µε παραδοσιακή µουσική και χορούσ. Στο πλαίσιο τησ εκδήλωσησ, οι επισκέπτεσ είχαν την ευκαιρία να δοκιµάσουν διάφορα εδέσµατα µε ελαιÞλαδο. Κατά τη διάρκεια τησ παραµονήσ τουσ στο Πάρκο Ελίασ, οι παρευρισκÞµενοι είχαν επίσησ την ευκαιρία να δουν εκθέµατα κι αναπαραστάσεισ παρµένα απÞ την ιστορία µασ. Την εκδήλωση στηρίζουν οι εταιρείεσ Χ.Α Παπαέλληνασ και Marketway. ΧορηγÞσ επικοινωνίασ: ΤηλεÞραση Μέγα, ΠεριοδικÞ Life.
√È ÀÂÚ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ πˆ·ÓÓ›‰Ë˜ ÛÙËÚ›˙Ô˘Ó ÙÔ Nicosia Dog Shelter Οι Υπεραγορέσ Ιωαννίδησ παρέδωσαν επιταγή ύψουσ 1.000 ευρώ στο Nicosia Dog Shelter. ΠρÞκειται για ποσÞ που µαζεύτηκε απÞ πωλήσεισ ζωοτροφών Pedigree και Whiskas, στα πλαίσια τησ εκδήλωσησ We Love Pets και κατά τη διάρκεια τησ εβδοµάδασ 29/9-04/10 που ήταν αφιερωµένη στα ζώα. «Το χρηµατικÞ ποσÞ δίνει µία πολύ βαθιά ανάσα στο καταφύγιο, καλύπτοντασ σηµαντικά έξοδα» τÞνισε η εκπρÞσωποσ του Nicosia Dog Shelter κα Βίκυ Νικολάου. Την παράδοση τησ επιταγήσ έκανε ο γενικÞσ διευθυντήσ των Υπεραγορών Ιωαννίδησ κ. Στέλιοσ Ιωαννίδησ. «Είναι δική µασ χαρά που καταφέραµε να σταθούµε αρωγοί µίασ αξιέπαινησ προσπάθεια η οποία δεν προστατεύει µÞνο τα αδέσποτα ζώα αλλά και την ίδια την κοινωνία απÞ τισ αρνητικέσ συνέπειεσ που έχει η παρουσία αδέσποτων ζώων» επισηµαίνει ο κ. Ιωαννίδησ. Οι Υπεραγορέσ Ιωαννίδησ σε Ανθούπολη και Αγίουσ Οµολογητέσ στα πλαίσια τησ κοινωνικήσ τουσ ευθύνησ θα συνεχίσουν να στηρίζουν ποικιλοτρÞπωσ τισ προσπάθειεσ του Nicosia Dog Shelter.
«ª·˙› ÛÙË ˙ˆ‹» USB Bank Î·È ¶∞™À∫∞º Η USB Bank, έχοντασ ωσ προτεραιÞτητά τησ την προσφορά στην κοινωνία και στον πάσχοντα συνάνθρωπÞ µασ, στηρίζει για µια ακÞµα χρονιά το έργο του Παγκύπριου Συνδέσµου Καρκινοπαθών και Φίλων (ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ) καθώσ και την Εκστρατεία Ενηµέρωσησ και Οικονοµικήσ Ενίσχυσησ του Συνδέσµου “Μαζί στη ζωή”. Ο οικονοµικÞσ στÞχοσ τησ Εκστρατείασ ήταν η συλλογή 500.000 ευρώ, που είναι απαραίτητα για την ολοκληρωµένη κάλυψη των λειτουργικών ΕσÞδων του ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ στα οποία συµπεριλαµβάνονται οι δωρεάν Υπηρεσίεσ Κατ’ Οίκον Νοσηλευτικήσ και Ανακουφιστικήσ Φροντίδασ αλλά και η υλοποίηση του Προγράµµατοσ ∆ιαφώτισησ. Η USB Bank µε αίσθηµα ευθύνησ απέναντι στην κοινωνία και µε την υποστήριξη του ∆ιεθνούσ Χρηµατοοικονοµικού Οµίλου BLC Bank – FRANSABANK Group, µέλοσ του οποίου είναι απÞ το 2011, στηρίζει την κοινωνία στην οποία λειτουργεί, ανταποδίδοντασ την εµπιστοσύνη που τησ δείχνει. Επενδύει σε τοµείσ που βελτιώνουν την ποιÞτητα ζωήσ Þλων των πολιτών. Για αυτÞ και η φετινή χρονιά βρίσκει τη USB Bank και τον ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ «ΜΑΖΙ ΣΤΗ ΖΩΗ».
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ºÈÏ·ÓıÚˆÈÎfi Barbeque Night ÛÙÔ G C School of Careers Μεγάλη επιτυχία σηµείωσε το ετήσιο φιλανθρωπικÞ Barbeque Night που διοργάνωσαν οι τελειÞφοιτοι µαθητέσ του G C School of Careers σε συνεργασία µε τον Σύνδεσµο Γονέων του σχολείου, για στήριξη του Αντικαρκινικού Συνδέσµου Κύπρου και του Ταµείου Υποτροφιών του Ιδρύµατοσ Στέλιοσ Χατζηπετρήσ. Η εκδήλωση πραγµατοποιήθηκε στον χώρο του σχολείου και οι παρευρισκÞµενοι είχαν την ευκαιρία να περάσουν µιαν αξέχαστη βραδιά µε live link, πλούσιο φαγητÞ και ποτÞ, ζωντανή µουσική, χορÞ και παιχνίδια. Πολλέσ εκπλήξεισ περίµεναν τουσ παρευρισκÞµενουσ, Þπωσ η παρουσία του παίχτη του ΑΠΟΕΛ ΤÞµασ Ντε Βινσέντι και δηµοφιλών αγαπηµένων ηθοποιών.
¢ËÌÈÔ˘ÚÁÈΤ˜ selfie Ì ÙÔ˘˜ Ã˘ÌÔ‡˜ ∂¡∞ Ο χυµÞσ ΕΝΑ έδωσε την ευκαιρία στουσ fans του να κερδίσουν πολλά cool δώρα και να καταφέρουν να ξεχωρίσουν µε µια #juicie #tastie #selfie στο διαγωνισµÞ που διοργάνωσε στο Facebook! Ο διαγωνισµÞσ του χυµού ΕΝΑ είχε διάρκεια 3 εβδοµάδεσ και προσκαλούσε τουσ fans του στην Κύπρο να κάνουν Like τη σελίδα του Χυµού ΕΝΑ στο Facebook και να αναρτήσουν τη δική τουσ ζουµερή και απολαυστική selfie! Oι διαγωνιζÞµενοι καλούσαν τουσ φίλουσ τουσ να τουσ ψηφίσουν και η selfie που µάζευε τισ πιο πολλέσ ψήφουσ κέρδιζε το εβδοµαδιαίο δώρο. Ο χυµÞσ ΕΝΑ µοίρασε 3 Samsung Galaxy Tab 3 Lite T110 7’ σε τρεισ τυχερούσ νικητέσ, τον Κωνσταντίνο Ορφανού, τη Ζωή Γεωργίου και τον Περσέα Κωνσταντίνου. Στο τέλοσ του διαγωνισµού, Þλεσ οι selfie µπήκαν στην κλήρωση, για το µεγάλο δώρο του διαγωνισµού, ένα Samsung Galaxy S5 16 GB, το οποίο κέρδισε ο Γιώργοσ Καραολήσ! Ο χυµÞσ ΕΝΑ διανέµεται απÞ την εταιρεία Φώτοσ Φωτιάδησ ∆ιανοµείσ Λτδ.
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Oranges and alcohol As the local orange season opens a number of culinary thoughts occur to me. In cooking they can be delightful, especially in puddings. They complement chocolate as bacon does eggs. For a main dish Duck à l’Orange can be enjoyable now and again, but it’s a bit of a fuff to cook and my quick version (see my recipe below) can be even better. Remember, though, all citrus fruits provide a strong presence in cooking, and this includes oranges. The noble fruit features in a number of the world’s greatest liqueurs, like Cointreau and Grand Marnier, whose makers extol their virtues in cooking, cocktails, with mixers and so forth. Here in Cyprus we have our own “Orange Institution”, which countless tourists to this island have taken home as a souvenir. I speak, of course, about Filfar. Filfar is sweet, but also has a sharp edge, very orangey and it is decidedly addictive. It ranks alongside the greatest liqueurs in the world, as an original. And like all great originals, its exact blend of oranges, herbs and spirit is a closely guarded secret. A Cypriot named Takis Philippou was working for the British Army in the 1940s, making jam. It was then that he had the notion of reviving and popularising a liqueur made with oranges, which was said to have originated at the Monastery of Kantara. The formula had come into the possession of his family generations before. When he was 84, in the 1990s Philippou said: “When I was a young boy, I had watched my grandmother making the liqueur, and my mother also knew the recipe”. Later on, his interest became serious: “I did my first trials with my mother’s help. Every year I made some,
Patrick Skinner
AT THE STOVE – Lovely Orangey Dishes Quick Duck à l’Orange Ingredients for 4 servings 2 filleted duck breasts (fresh or frozen) or joints from a whole duck. Juice of one large orange 1 wine glass of dry white wine Salt and pepper 2 tbsp Filfar Orange Liqueur Method 1. If frozen, completely de-frost fillets. 2. If you are fat conscious, remove skin (with sharp pointed knife and fingers) 3. Prick all over one side and rub salt into surface 4. If you have taken skin off rub a little olive oil over the surfaces 5. Heat grill to very hot. 6. Grill duck as you would a steak, for about 6 – 10 minutes each side according to whether you like it slightly pink or well done. 7. After five minutes pour in the wine and
orange juice and stir into juices. Add a little salt and some black pepper. 8. Five minutes before serving add the Filfar – if you think there is not enough sauce, add more white wine, or a few spoons of chicken stock. 9. Remove the duck breasts on to a wooden carving board and let rest for 3 – 4 minutes. With a very sharp knife slice very thinly. 10. Arrange slices in a fan-like shape and spoon over the sauce. 11. Serve with green peas (I strongly recommend Swedish Findus “Ärter” frozen variety) and roast potatoes. 12. Drink a young fruity red with it. And after? If you want to carry on with the orange flavour it could well be…
ORANGE AND ALMOND FLAN Ingredients Rind and juice of 3 large or 4 medium oranges 4 eggs 125 grams freshly ground almonds 175 grams caster sugar 1 tbsp Filfar orange liqueur Method 1. Take a large, round, shallow pastry tin (around 30 cms diameter), and rub some butter over the inside. Sprinkle flour on and shake until it is settled all over. 2. Wash and dry the oranges. With a fine grater, carefully grate the rind and set aside. Halve and squeeze them. Set the juice aside. 3. Separate the eggs and beat, or blend in your food processor, the yolks with 125 grams of the sugar and the rind until creamy. 4. Beat in the ground almonds slowly. 5. Beat the egg whites until stiff and fold into the mixture. Spoon out into the baking dish and put in the centre of the oven, heated to
changing the proportions, until I arrived at the final product”. Takis Philippou also recounted the tale of how Filfar got its name. “By chance”, he said, “I went to the telegraph office to register my telegraphic address and I wanted to put ‘Fabrique Philippou’ – Far Fil. But I made a mistake. Instead of writing ‘Farfil’, I wrote ‘Filfar’. That sounded better, so I decided to keep it and registered it under that name”. From small beginnings, which included sending two bottles to a fair in Paris, where a French chef announced that Filfar made better Crêpes Suzette than Grand Marnier, Philippou graduated from a small factory to a large one, near Famagusta, which opened three months before the Turkish invasion of 1974 which ended its short lived career. So it was back to a small operation, in Limassol, where Filfar has been made ever since. Today, Filfar is made by Damaris Wines and Spirits Ltd., who are also importers and distributors of cigarettes, cigars, wines and spirits. Their founder, Demos Aristidou, is now the sole guardian of the Filfar secret. He took over the manufacturing and distribution in 1992. Such is the popularity of Filfar that it is universally available throughout Cyprus, from the smallest grocery to largest supermarket, and in most restaurants and hotels. There are imitators, the words has it, but no equals. Filfar is made by the long-established, traditional method of making fine liqueurs. The oranges come in at the peak of the Cyprus season, in January. Between 16 – 18 are needed for each bottle of Filfar. Every one is inspected and individually peeled. The skins and fruit are then macerated and fermentation takes place in oak barrels. Addition of pure spirit stops the fermentation at a certain point, leaving the residual natural sugars that give the sweetness to the liqueur. The whole process takes six months. The orange nectar is then bottled and packed in a variety of ways. 75 cl bottles, 50 cl bottles, special presentations, gift packs, and 5cl miniatures in cartons or a transparent plastic pack with a miniature and a Filfar liqueur glass. Prices are very reasonable for a world-class liqueur. No wonder so many thousands of visitors take one or more home with them. NOTE: the Filfar website informs me you can’t buy it at the airport! Be warned! Finally, I have to say: on its own, or with a little ice, or soda, Filfar is in a league of its own.
Today Filfar comes as Orange, Mandarin and Lemon liqueurs 220ºC. 6. After 15 minutes turn down oven to 170ºC and cook for about 15 minutes more. Remove from oven and cool for ten minutes then remove from tin. 7. Mix remaining sugar with orange juice and liqueur or brandy and sprinkle over the flan. Serve by itself, or if you feel you ought, a splodge of whipped cream, or vanilla icecream. You can have a glass of Filfar with it, too, if you will.
Crêpes Suzette Well done, this is a supreme dessert, with a flaming flourish at the table if you want to show off. It is preferable to make your own pancakes, because thin ones are needed, but the store-bought variety can be used quite successfully (but warm them before use so they are pliable). Ingredients for 6 Servings 12 pancakes (see recipe below) 2 good sized knobs of butter unsalted butter 2 tbsp caster sugar Juice of 2 oranges Juice of half lemon 3 tbsp of Orange Filfar Method 1. Pre-cook the pancakes and keep warm (covered with foil) 2. Squeeze the orange and lemon. 3. Melt the butter in a 24 cm (9 inch) base heavy frying pan; add sugar stir gently until it is a golden-brown caramel. 4. Add the orange and lemon juice and keep stirring until the caramel has dissolved and become a thick sauce. 5. Put one pancake into the pan, fold it in half and then in half again.
6. Then put it at the side of the pan and do the same with the next pancake. 7. When you have all pancakes are in the sauce, pour the orange liqueur over and when warm, set it alight. 8. Swirl the pan so that the flamed liqueur is distributed evenly. 9. Serve directly from the pan on to warmed dessert plates.
Basic recipe for 8 – 12 pancakes 100 g of plain or village flour 1 egg 30 cl milk A pinch of salt 1 tbsp of sunflower oil, plus oil or butter for frying Method 1. Sift the flour and salt into a large bowl and make a hole in the middle. 2. Mix in the egg and half the milk with a whisk. 3. Beat briskly until well-mixed and bubbles start to appear on the surface. 4. Add the remaining milk little by little, then the tbsp of sunflower oil, beating continuously. 5. Cover the bowl and stand in a cool place for half an hour. 6. To cook, heat the pan and put in a TINY knob of butter or a few drops of oil and swirl over the base. 7. Take a small ladle, or two tbsp of the mixture and put into the pan, quickly shaking it to ensure it runs all over the base. Cook until brown and then turn over and cook the other side. The objective is to get a nice, thin, even pancake. 8. Remove and repeat, remembering to stir the batter mixture regularly.
October 22 - 28, 2014
18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com
The new Egyptian era By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary
Egypt signed contracts this weekend with six international firms to reconstruct and expand the Suez Canal. This is certainly welcome news for the country; it is the latest indicator that North Africa’s largest economy is rebounding and gaining strength after years of political turmoil. Following the ousting of former Egyptian President, Hosni Mubarak, in 2011, the instability on the ground was paralleled by volatility in the financial markets. Egypt’s credit rating was downgraded on multiple occasions. Only by late 2013 did ratings finally
started to improve, a trend which, to the relief of the country’s citizens, has been solidified throughout 2014. Just last week, Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the IMF, praised Egypt for making a series of economic reforms this year, including new taxes for affluent citizens and a partial lifting of energy subsidies. Then this week President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi announced the Suez project, with the confident assertion that “Egyptians will experience a new economic era.” The 145-year old Suez Canal is the fastest gateway for ships from Europe to Asia and one of the most important trade routes in the world. The new project, proposed by President himself, will see the creation of a parallel channel to increase the capacity for vessels travelling between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. So central is this project to Sisi’s vision for Egypt’s future, that he has allocated $8.2 bln to it, and pushed for its
completion in just one year instead of the originally scheduled three. No time to waste, work is expected to start this week. The long-term goal is that by 2023, the new canal will more than double revenues from $5 bln to $13.5 bln. In addition, the 29,000 square miles around the area will be developed into an industrial and logistics zone to attract more ships and generate further income. This project alone could help to significantly reverse the decline in tourism and foreign investment that Egypt has suffered since the 2011 political uprising. According to the Commercial International Bank, Egypt’s largest publicly traded company, syndicated lending has risen 61% in the first three quarters to $2.9 bln, and it is prepared for a continued surge in lending as the government invests billions in the canal. It estimates that the market will grow a further 25% in 2015, with benefits to be enjoyed both
by corporate firms and consumers. It comes as little surprise that shares in the bank are already up 41% this year. Interestingly, the firms contracted to work on the Canal include one from the UAE and one from the US, alongside four European companies. The very boost that Egypt will receive economically from the construction will be enhanced by its new political positioning as an increasingly modern and Western-friendly Arab nation. For this country at least, it seems that the Arab Spring is finally beginning to pay off.
www.bancdebinary.com
USD profit-taking intensifies Markets Report by Forextime Ltd
EURUSD – Not what Draghi was hoping for For months, the European Central Bank and its President Mario Draghi have been calling for a weaker Euro exchange rate. A combination of the ECB adding more stimulus to reinvigorate the EU economy alongside the continual consistency of alarming data weakening the EU sentiment achieved some Euro weakness. However, for the bear run to continue, demand for the USD would need to remain strong, otherwise the pair would appreciate very suddenly. Unfortunately for Draghi and the bears, USD profit taking last week resulted in the Eurodollar reversing to the upside. This upside move was not encouraged by Euro strength but instead, USD weakness. Despite fears over Europe’s largest economy (Germany) heading for a recession intensifying following the latest ZEW Survey falling into negative territory, heightened fears over global economic growth encouraged suspicions that the Fed might delay raising interest rates and as such, investors took profit on the Greenback. Aside from Thursday’s EU Markit PMI’s, economists will be looking for clues regarding whether the EU economy is stagnating, where the Eurodollar fluctuates is dependent upon how the markets react to US economic news. The United States economic release to look out for is September’s inflation data. If suspicions arise that the Federal Reserve will unexpectedly continue QE, expect the Eurodollar to make moves towards 1.29 and 1.30. Looking at the technicals, the EURUSD patterns currently paint an interesting picture. Not only does the pair remain inside the same bearish channel it has been involved in for months, meaning the pair can still technically move lower but a bullish trendline within the channel has also formed.
Therefore, if the USD does weaken over the upcoming week, there is a technical pattern that will support the pair moving to the upside. If the Eurodollar appreciation continues, resistance can be found at 1.2884 and 1.2905. If the US inflation report suggests the Federal Reserve will conclude QE as planned, the USD is likely to strengthen and as such, support can be found at 1.2705 and 1.2624.
GBPUSD – Looking at a potential wedge pattern In line with what has been noticed in the past few weeks, the Cable continued to struggle to find any direction last week and alternated between a bullish and bearish sentiment. The pair recorded a new yearly low (1.5874) following the news that annualised inflation for September was 1.2%, way below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% threshold target before they will consider a rate increase. However, the pair then encountered a complete reversal on Wednesday afternoon when the US markets experienced a sell-off. Comments from James Bullard, renowned to be the most hawkish member of the Federal Reserve, on Thursday evening that the Fed might consider continuing QE led to the pair reversing all of its previous losses. Volatility for this pair is likely to intensify with two crucial economic releases scheduled to be announced. GBP bulls will be hoping the BoE Minutes release will show that a third member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for a UK rate rise in October, while the United States inflation data for September is also released. The recent FOMC Minutes suggested there is concern among the Fed that the higher valued USD would be detrimental to US inflation targets. If there is an unexpected slowdown in inflation, confidence in the Greenback will weaken quickly and as such, the GBPUSD could continue its reversal. From a technical standpoint, the pair is clearly experiencing a downtrend but appears to have pulled away from the bearish channel it previously found itself within. Instead, the GBPUSD has formed some sort of wedge pattern, which can lead to an upside rally later on. Before traders get carried away and see this wedge pattern as a “buy now” opportunity, it must be pointed out that this pair still has plenty of room to move both on the upside and downside, before a potential breakout. If the pair
continues to move to the upside, resistance can be found at 1.6152 and 1.6225. If the pair moves in a bearish direction, support can be found at 1.650 and 1.6007.
Gold – Looking at a reversal During the previous weekly review, we mentioned Gold declining and hitting the $1180 target a few weeks earlier than previously forecast. Reaching the $1180 target also represented a “triple bottom” technical pattern, encouraging investors to enter the market. At first, I was apprehensive this would be a false breakout – mainly due to the expectation the Fed will conclude QE later in October. The US market-sell off during the previous week, alongside comments from the Fed’s James Bullard that the Fed may not actually conclude QE after all has changed my weariness towards a false breakout. With the right fundamentals connecting together, we could now be looking at Gold going on a bull run. The two major economic releases over the upcoming week involve Chinese GDP and US inflation for September. However, despite all the political/economic uncertainty around the world, Gold has continued to trade only in accordance with US economic news. Therefore, investors in Gold must keep an eye out for US inflation data. If the inflation data heightens anticipation that the Fed will delay normalising monetary policy and continue QE, there are high chances Gold will become very attractive to investors. Gold seems to have found some resistance around 1250 but if this is surpassed, resistance can be found at 1270 and 1290. If the Fed concludes QE as planned, this would encourage Gold to erase its recent gains, with support found at 1220 and 1204. Both the Stochastic Oscillator and RSI are suggesting that Gold could move in either direction. ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is a forex broker, registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm and licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). For information, disclaimer and risk warning note visit: www.ForexCircles.com
October 22 - 28 2014
financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19
Fed to the rescue? Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonom“Lord, proves to be. If the medium-term outlook for inflation has grant me chastity and continence, but not yet.” That prayer softened, then it could take more time, and perhaps more from a young Saint Augustine sprung to mind when stimulus, to turn the situation around. Indeed, markets have listening to St. Louis’ Fed president, James Bullard, suggest recently provided plenty of indications that this might be the last week that the Federal Reserve may extend its quantitative case. Perhaps, the world is plodding towards deflation. easing beyond the planned end date of October 29. Bullard But there is also the possibility that bond market signals thinks the Fed should “invoke that are temporarily distorted. For his part, clause about it being data dependent” Bullard is sticking to his own forecast and keep buying $15bn worth of Marcuard’s Market update for rising inflation. With the notable treasuries and mortgage bonds, at least by GaveKal Dragonomics exception of falling commodity prices, until the following meeting in we too find several supports for US December. Bullard may not be a voting inflation going forward. So what could member, but his argument is lucid and we suspect that be distorting bond market signals today? The list is plentiful: voting members are likely to be persuaded. While it won’t fix 1. Eurozone woes - Renewed trouble on the old continent is everything, such a move by the Fed would have a measurable causing a flight to US treasuries and also raising fears of an impact on the presently febrile investment landscape. economic knock-on effect that derails the US recovery. So why the delay? Inflation expectations priced into the Bullard does not yet see such a situation, but he says there bond market have dropped, significantly. And as Bullard puts are good reasons to adopt a wait-and-see approach before it “the central bank has to guard against any expectations in QE3 is closed down. As such, the question is whether some the market that would suggest that the central bank is not are right in arguing that Europe’s outlook could improve by going to hit its inflation target.” This is why inflation November or if the situation deteriorates. expectations have long been one of our top monetary policy 2. Pimco fears - After the Fed, one of the biggest bond indicators. Almost every time breakeven inflation rates have holders is bond manager Pimco, with assets under dropped significantly, the Fed has reacted with some sort of management exceeding a trillion dollars. The firm may dovish maneuver-either with more QE, more dovish bounce back from the loss of its founder and its bond funds guidance... Bullard suggests that this time may be no may not see the sort of redemptions being widely touted. But until this is clear, this is another reason for bond investors to different. If the Fed does pause, the length of the delay will depend seek safety in US treasuries, even at prices that might not be on how real or temporary the slide in inflation expectations justified by their own outlook on US growth.
3. Regulators keep pushing - On September 3, US regulators told banks that by the end of the year, they needed to buy more high quality liquid assets (HQLAs, which of course include treasuries). The shortfall is estimated at about $100bn, which could equate to enough forced purchases to distort market price signals. In addition, at the start of this week, global regulators warned non-banks that as of 2Q15, they must take bigger haircuts on private securities posted as collateral for repos-of course this excludes government bonds, and thus makes them more attractive. So, we have banks, non-banks, and central banks all buying government bonds regardless of the price (even when the Fed stops QE, it is still reinvesting proceeds from its massive book). The above factors not only distort the Fed’s favourite inflation expectation signals, they also make this a very unfortunate time for it to be ending QE. And this is why a decision to delay the end of QE would change the investment landscape. QE will still end, but it will not end at the worst of times. And it will also reinstall market confidence that not only is the tapering of QE data dependent, but so are rate hikes. Of course, the Fed has been saying this for a while. But after Yellen mistakenly told reporters earlier in the year that rate hikes might come “around six months” after the end of QE, she has been looking for every opportunity to stress that the policy trajectory does indeed depend on the data. Bullard is suggesting that the slide in inflation expectations has provided the ideal opportunity to make this point forcefully.
Give last week back to the Indians exchange rates) fixed, it is no surprise that the other two main variables (asset prices and employment) must adjust to the world’s accelerating Schumpeterian forces. Any investor benchmarked against the MSCI World, EAFE, or even Europe, is better off underweight euroland equities, unless (like Japanese stocks in the 1990s and 2000s) they become either a) ridiculously cheap, or b) an obvious policy catalyst is unleashed. 3) China is doing what it has always done: deal with a slowdown in its structural growth rate by embracing further deregulation. After Deng Xiaoping deregulated China’s labour markets in the early 1980s and corporate structures in the early 1990s, after Zhu Rongji deregulated real estate and reformed state enterprises in the late 1990s, and after Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao deregulated commodity markets a decade ago, Xi Jinping is confronting the final frontier: the deregulation of capital. To a large extent, this is happening through Hong Kong in the form of renminbi internationalisation, the creation of the dim sum bond market and the Shanghai-HK Stock Connect programme. This may help to explain why the Chinese government feels the need to ensure that Hong Kong’s chief executive will always be Beijing-friendly, a need which has led to the current street protests. 4) Japan is doing what it has always done: embracing mercantilism. What else does one call a policy that on one hand constrains domestic consumption with higher sales taxes, and
Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics As Paulie Walnuts from the Sopranos would have said, “You can give last week back to the Indians”, even though it is when volatility spikes that investment opportunities start to arise. In this spirit, and to take us away from ISIS, Ebola, Ukraine and whatever other horsemen of the apocalypse the media will focus on next, we thought we would review the more important macro-trend confirmations provided by the markets recently. 1) There is no ‘peak’ anything: what we have seen is a fairly normal, if super-charged, commodity cycle. An investment drought in new production capacity over 20 years from 1982 to 2002, combined with a surge in demand from 2002, led to a supply shortfall in almost every commodity there is. The resulting jump in prices between 2003 and 2008 triggered a boom in capital spending in the sector, and a significant increase in supply. Now, we have entered the long phase in which prices gradually grind down towards the marginal cost of production of the cheaper producers. In this sense, commodities are almost the polar opposite of equities: they take the elevator up, and the stairs down again. 2) Euroland are sliding towards a deflationary bust: with the two most important prices in an economy (interest rates and
Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.
www.marcuardheritage.com
The Financial Markets Base Rates
USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
LIBOR rates
0.125% 0.50% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00%
Swap Rates
CCY/Period
1mth
2mth
3mth
6mth
1yr
USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
0.16 0.50 0.00 0.08 0.00
0.20 0.53 0.03 0.11 0.01
0.23 0.56 0.06 0.11 0.01
0.32 0.69 0.14 0.16 0.06
0.55 1.01 0.30 0.31 0.16
USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
CCY/Period
2yr
3yr
4yr
5yr
7yr
10yr
0.61 1.08 0.23 0.15 0.02
0.98 1.33 0.28 0.16 0.04
1.31 1.53 0.36 0.18 0.11
1.57 1.70 0.47 0.23 0.20
1.95 1.96 0.72 0.37 0.44
2.31 2.24 1.10 0.61 0.75
Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates
CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY
1 USD
Opening Rates
1 EUR
1 GBP
1.2801
1.6169
1.0610
0.9379
1.2631
0.8288
0.7327
0.7812 0.6185
0.7917
0.9425
1.2065
1.5239
106.62
136.48
172.39
1 CHF 100 JPY
0.6562
0.5801 0.8840
113.12
WORLD CURRENCIES PER US DOLLAR CURRENCY
CODE
RATE
EUROPEAN
Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia
BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH
10680 1.617 1.5288 21.556 5.822 12.2338 1.279 1.747 239.87 0.54951 2.6993 0.3356 14.485 6.5518 3.3016 3.452 40.9882 7.1941 0.9435 12.85
AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD
0.8808 1.1247 7.756 61.295 106.64 1054.6 1.2515 1.2712
BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED
0.3770 7.1441 26519.00 3.7261 0.7080 0.2888 1513.60 0.3850 3.6397 3.7524 10.9712 3.6729
AZN KZT TRY
0.7823 181.04 2.2397
AMERICAS & PACIFIC
Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
Interest Rates
CCY
on the other tries to boost exports via currency devaluation? Sure, one could call it ‘Abenomics’, but ‘mercantilism’ does just as well. And though further sales tax increases may now be on hold (see Shinzo Abe’s comments over the weekend), it is a safe bet that Tokyo remains set on devaluing the yen further, until Japan moves back into a trade surplus. After all, the last thing the Japanese want is to become increasingly dependent on foreigners for debt financing (especially if-God forbid-those foreigners are likely to be Chinese). And if one doesn’t want to become dependent on foreigners, one cannot afford to run a trade deficit.
Weekly movement of USD
CCY\Date
23.09
30.09
07.10
14.10
21.10
CCY
Today
USD GBP JPY CHF
1.2802
1.2632
1.2559
1.2659
1.2757
0.7813
0.7767
0.7823
0.7876
0.7883
138.92
137.91
136.61
135.48
135.56
1.2000
1.1997
1.2053
1.2015
1.1993
GBP EUR JPY CHF
1.6169 1.2801 106.62 0.9425
Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham ASIA
Last Week %Change 1.6073 1.2659 107.02 0.9491
+0.60 +1.12 -0.38 -0.70
Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:
* USD per National Currency
October 22 - 28, 2014
20 | WORLD | financialmirror.com
China’s vicious growth circle Most economists have a reason to be worried about China’s economy – whether it be low consumption and large external surpluses, industrial overcapacity, environmental degradation, or government interventions like capital controls or financial repression. What many fail to recognise is that these are merely the symptoms of a single underlying problem: China’s skewed growth model. That model is, to some extent, a policyinduced construct, the result of a deep-rooted bias toward construction and manufacturing as the leading drivers of economic development. This predilection harkens back to the Great Leap Forward of the 1950s, when scrap metal was melted to meet wildly optimistic steelproduction targets, thereby advancing Mao’s dream of rapid industrialisation. Today, China’s proclivity for industrial production is manifested in large-scale manufacturing and infrastructure projects, encouraged by direct and indirect government subsidies. By boosting investment and generating tax revenue for local governments, this approach has a more immediate positive impact on GDP than efforts to develop the service sector.
But the model also carries considerable costs. Indeed, China is now locked in a vicious economic circle, sustained by seemingly unrelated distortionary policies that are, in fact, deeply interconnected, even symbiotic. One of the most glaring features of this pattern is the disparity between China’s GDP growth, which has averaged nearly 10% annually over the last few decades, and its employment growth, which has amounted to just 1-2% annually. Clearly, industrialisation and export expansion alone cannot absorb China’s massive labour force. The problem is that rapid labourproductivity growth in the industrial sector – more than 10% per year over the last two decades – is reducing the need to hire more workers. The service sector, by contrast, experienced much slower labor-productivity growth (about 5% annually over the same period), meaning that it could be far more effective in generating employment growth. In the United States, about 80% of the total labour force was deployed in the services sector in 2012. Another consequence of China’s skewed growth model has been a decline in household
By Keyu Jin
income as a share of GDP, from 70% in 1990 to 60% in 2009, whereas in the US, for example, the ratio has remained stable, at around 80% of GDP. In other words, Chinese households are missing out on the benefits of economic growth. This phenomenon, too, can be blamed largely on distortionary policies. In order to cap the rise in labor costs, wages were suppressed, growing by only 5% annually over the last 20 years, even as productivity grew at an annual rate of 8.5%. Meanwhile, financial repression lowered the cost of capital. In the last decade, the average real (inflationadjusted) return on deposits has been near zero. With about 80% of Chinese household savings deposited in banks, this implicit tax on savings has had a major economic impact, reinforcing Chinese households’ tendency to save and thus undermining consumption growth and exacerbating global imbalances. In this way, China’s distortionary policies have helped to perpetuate a dysfunctional growth model. Wage suppression, financial repression, and an undervalued exchange rate subsidise exports and production, at the expense of households, which are thus compelled to save, weakening domestic demand. In order to achieve growth targets, the government thus must depend on exports and investment – an approach that leads to the
accumulation of massive reserves, which subsequently need to be sterilised. Low interest rates help to contain the cost of sterilisation at the national level and reduce costs at the firm level – again at the expense of households. Breaking the cycle will not be easy, but there is no other way to address many of the most pressing problems confronting China’s economy. Indeed, the current growth model is also taking a heavy toll on the environment, with pollution threatening the population’s health, especially in urban areas. Moreover, the bias toward manufacturing and export industries leads to a severe misallocation of capital. Less efficient industrial sectors have accumulated significant excess capacity, destabilising the entire economy, while more productive, efficient sectors lack access to the resources they need. Restructuring the economy is perhaps the most urgent – and most difficult – challenge facing China’s leaders today. Given that the current distortions are interlinked, they may need to be addressed simultaneously. China’s gradualist approach may no longer work. Keyu Jin is Lecturer in Economics at the London School of Economics. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org
Brazil’s institutional limbo By Camila Villard Duran International investors are watching closely as Brazilians prepare to vote in the second round of the presidential election on October 26. Their vote will not only decide who will be the country’s next president; it may also determine the future of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), and therefore the country’s macroeconomic trajectory. While the incumbent president, Dilma Rousseff, supports the BCB’s existing institutional framework, her opponents contend that monetary policy is plagued by political interference, which would best be addressed by giving the BCB greater autonomy. But no candidate has yet advanced a proposal for reform that would reduce the scope for political interference while ensuring greater accountability and promoting financial stability. If Brazil is to sustain strong and stable economic growth, the central bank will need an overhaul. Monetary policy has long played an important role in Brazilian politics. During the democratisation process of the 1980s and 1990s, successive governments tried to tame hyperinflation, which reached 2,477% in 1993. The introduction of the “Real plan,” launched in 1994, managed to suppress annual price growth to an “acceptable” 22% by the following year. Riding on the plan’s success, its architect, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, a former economy minister, was twice elected President (in 1994 and 1998), underscoring voter concern about price stability. Today, as central bankers in developed countries fret about the threat of deflation, Brazilian politicians are once again forced to respond to widespread fears about slowing growth and a return to high inflation. Unfortunately, the presidential candidates’ plans for the BCB fall short of what is required. Historically, Rousseff’s Workers’ Party (PT) has resisted giving the bank formal autonomy, and she has played a distinctly populist card during the campaign, arguing that BCB autonomy would hand too much control to private bankers. Marina Silva, the Socialist Party’s candidate, demanded formal bank independence – an argument subsequently adopted by the Social Democratic Party (PSDB) candidate, Aécio Neves, who now faces Rousseff in the election run-off. But Neves wants de facto, rather than formal, operational autonomy for the BCB. Like Cardoso, Neves is committed to
inflation targeting, creating a primary surplus, and maintaining a floating exchange rate. While such policies may promote price stability, his proposal neglects the two most important issues for the BCB: legal autonomy and institutional reforms that ensure accountability to citizens. A legal commitment to BCB autonomy would contribute to currency confidence in a way that informal autonomy cannot. Legal structures have a direct impact on inflation expectations, because law can provide institutional protection to public goods, such as price and financial stability. Properly designed and executed, institutional reform could also increase BCB accountability to society at large while guarding against undue political influence and lobbying by the big banks. The BCB is ripe for reform. It is a 50-year-old technocratic bureaucracy established under a military dictatorship, with few legal instruments for political and social accountability. Institutional reform must therefore move beyond the BCB’s inadequate price-stability target, which is set according to a narrow inflation index that fails to reflect the experiences of ordinary Brazilian consumers. For example, the reported 2013 inflation rate was 5.9% (compared to a 4.5% target); but prices for food, a major share of most households’ budgets, rose by 8.4%, hitting the poor especially hard. The Rousseff administration has kept the reported inflation rate artificially low by suppressing prices for state-run services. Price stability should be accompanied by other targets, especially financial stability, but also, possibly, employment. Rousseff thwarted Congress’s attempts to introduce such targets in 2011, and they would, of course, need to be carefully designed to avoid past mistakes. But, done right, an expanded range of criteria by which to assess BCB policies, by enhancing
accountability, would strengthen the legitimacy of granting policymakers legal autonomy. There is also scope for institutional reform to promote greater financial stability. The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath highlighted the consequences of the BCB’s outdated institutional design. The Bank had insufficient legal backing for action needed to stabilise the financial system. This left thenPresident Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, to resort to a series of dramatic measures, including the use of the deposit-insurance fund and state-owned banks to bail out failed financial institutions. Lula claimed that this ad hoc approach gave Brazil a degree of flexibility lacking in other countries; but it was not cost-free, as he claimed, and the results did not endure. Rapid expansion of private debt raises other, larger concerns. Other central banks have recognised the need for new instruments to ensure financial stability; so must the BCB. Institutional clarity on the BCB’s mandate for financial stability and the instruments at its disposal could help Brazil avoid future crises – or at least weather them more effectively. Brazil’s presidential election appears to offer two unsatisfying choices: a continuation of the status quo, with the BCB subject to political influence, under Rousseff; or an informally autonomous BCB with an outdated institutional apparatus, under Neves. Only Silva’s initial proposal included calls for institutional reform of monetary policy and financial regulation; and it is far from certain that her endorsement of Neves in the run-off will sway his view should he win. Camila Villard Duran, a professor of law at the University of São Paulo, is an Oxford-Princeton Global Leaders Fellow in the Global Economic Governance Programme, University of Oxford. Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org
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October 22 - 28, 2014
financialmirror.com | WORLD | 21
America, the balanced A symmetric adjustment has also occurred in China, real appreciation of its currency By Jeffrey Frankel and higherviaprices for labor and land. China’s current-account surplus peaked in 2008 at Professor of Capital Formation more than 10% of GDP and has since and Growth at Harvard University narrowed dramatically, to 1.9% last year. China’s trade adjustment in some respects When the United States’ current account followed that of Japan, the original focus of fell into deficit in 1982, the US Council of American trade anxieties in the 1980s. Economic Advisers accurately predicted record I propose a third, more speculative reason deficits for years to come, owing to budget why it may be time to stop worrying about the deficits, a low national saving rate, and an US current-account deficit. It is possible that, overvalued dollar. If the US did not adjust, properly measured, the true deficits were knowledgeable forecasters intoned, it would go smaller than has been reported, and even that, from being the world’s largest creditor to its in some years, they were not there at all. largest debtor. Many of us worried that the Every year, US residents take some of what imbalances were unsustainable, and might they earn in overseas investment income – end in a “hard landing” for the dollar if and interest on bonds, dividends on equities, and when global investors tired of holding it. repatriated profits on direct investment – and The indebtedness forecasts were correct. reinvest it then and there. For example, Indeed, every year for more than three corporations plow overseas profits back into decades, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis their operations, often to avoid paying the high (BEA) has reported a current-account deficit. US corporate income tax implied by And yet now we must ask whether the US repatriating those earnings. Technically, this current-account deficit is still a problem. should be recorded as a bigger surplus on the For starters, the world’s investors declared investment-income account, matched by loud and clear in 2008 that they were not greater acquisition of assets overseas. Often it concerned about the sustainability of US is counted correctly. But there is reason to deficits. When the global financial crisis think that this is not always the case. erupted, they flooded into dollar assets, even The world has long run a substantial deficit though the crisis originated in the United in investment income, even though the States. correct numbers should sum to zero. The Moreover, a substantial amount of US missing income must be going somewhere. adjustment has taken place since 1982 – for Even for officials as highly competent as example, the dollar depreciations of 1985-1987 those at the BEA, it is impossible to keep track and 2002-2007 and the fiscal retrenchments of of all of the stocks and flows in the 1992-2000 and 2009-2014. The big increase in international economy. Everyone knows that domestic output of shale oil and gas has also errors and omissions are large, especially when helped the trade balance recently. it comes to financial transactions. As a result, the US current-account deficit Underfunding of statistical agencies in 2013 had narrowed by half in dollar terms exacerbates measurement problems, but it from its 2006 peak, and from 5.8% of GDP to does not create them. 2.4%. This is a decline of two-thirds when Less well known, however, is a particular pattern in the revisions of the US international expressed as a share of global output.
investment position. The currently available historical statistics show that in every year from 1982 to 2000, the initial estimate of the net international investment position was subsequently revised upward, as statisticians found overseas assets about which they previously had no way of knowing. Since then, some subsequent revisions have been positive and some negative. But, despite more frequent surveys of portfolio holdings in recent years, certain new asset acquisitions – for example, some held with foreign custodians – still most likely go unreported. The numbers are potentially large. The reported US current-account deficits from 1982 to 2013, based on subsequent revisions, total $9.5 trln. And yet the deterioration in the US international investment position over this period was not much more than half of that amount ($5.7 trln if measured relative to the revised estimate for 1981). Certainly a lot of the discrepancy is attributable to valuation effects: since 1982, the dollar value of overseas assets has increased repeatedly, owing to increases in the dollar value of foreign currency and increases in the assets’ foreign-currency value. But part of the discrepancy also reflects the discovery of missing assets, some of which may have originated in the reinvestment of overseas
income. The missing credits also originally could have been earned in other ways. For example, US multinational corporations sometimes over-invoice import bills or under-report export earnings to reduce their tax obligations. Again, this would work to overstate the recorded current-account deficit. Consider an (admittedly extreme) illustration. If true investment income were double what is reported, the difference was reinvested abroad in the years 1982-2000, and those assets were discovered by 2014, that would explain about half of the upward revision in the US net international investment position. If something like this under-reporting of reinvested earnings or other balance-ofpayments credits has gone on in the past, it may still be going on today – especially with US firms becoming aggressive about arbitraging corporate income tax. And if true investment income is indeed as large as double what is reported, the true US current-account balance entered the black in 2009 and has been in surplus ever since.
employment, and prosperity. Given that affluent households spend a smaller share of their incomes and wealth, greater inequality translates into lower overall consumption, thereby hindering the recovery of economies already burdened by inadequate aggregate demand. Today’s high levels of inequality also impede the structural reforms needed to boost productivity, while undermining efforts to address residual pockets of excessive indebtedness. This is a dangerous combination that erodes social cohesion, political effectiveness, current GDP growth, and future economic potential. That is why it is so disappointing that, despite heightened awareness of inequality, the IMF/World Bank meetings – a gathering of thousands of policymakers, private-sector participants, and journalists, which included seminars on inequality in advanced countries and developing regions alike – failed to make a consequential impact on the policy agenda. Policymakers seem convinced that the time is not right for a meaningful initiative to address inequality of income, wealth, and opportunity. But waiting will only make the problem more difficult to resolve. In fact, a number of steps can and should be taken to stem the rise in inequality. In the US, for example, sustained political determination would help to close massive loopholes in estate planning and inheritance, as well as in household and corporate taxation,
that disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Likewise, there is scope for removing the antiquated practice of taxing hedge and private-equity funds’ “carried interest” at a preferential rate. The way home ownership is taxed and subsidised could be reformed more significantly, especially at the top price levels. And a strong case has been made for raising the minimum wage. To be sure, such measures will make only a dent in inequality, albeit an important and visible one. In order to deepen their impact, a more comprehensive macroeconomic policy stance is needed, with the explicit goal of reinvigorating and redesigning structuralreform efforts, boosting aggregate demand, and eliminating debt overhangs. Such an approach would reduce the enormous policy burden currently borne by central banks. It is time for heightened global attention to inequality to translate into concerted action. Some initiatives would tackle inequality directly; others would defuse some of the forces that drive it. Together, they would go a long way toward mitigating a serious impediment to the economic and social wellbeing of current and future generations.
Jeffrey Frankel is Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org
The inequality Trifecta By Mohamed A. El-Erian Αuthor of When Markets Collide
There were quite a few disconnects at the recently concluded Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Among the most striking was the disparity between participants’ interest in discussions of inequality and the ongoing lack of a formal action plan for governments to address it. This represents a profound failure of policy imagination – one that must urgently be addressed. There is good reason for the spike in interest. While inequality has decreased across countries, it has increased within them, in the advanced and developing worlds alike. The process has been driven by a combination of secular and structural issues – including the changing nature of technological advancement, the rise of “winner-take-all” investment characteristics, and political systems favouring the wealthy – and has been turbocharged by cyclical forces. In the developed world, the problem is rooted in unprecedented political polarisation, which has impeded comprehensive responses and placed an excessive policy burden on central banks. Though monetary authorities
enjoy more political autonomy than other policymaking bodies, they lack the needed tools to address effectively the challenges that their countries face. In normal times, fiscal policy would support monetary policy, including by playing a redistributive role. But these are not normal times. With political gridlock blocking an appropriate fiscal response – after 2008, the United States Congress did not pass an annual budget, a basic component of responsible economic governance, for five years – central banks have been forced to bolster economies artificially. To do so, they have relied on nearzero interest rates and unconventional measures like quantitative easing to stimulate growth and job creation. Beyond being incomplete, this approach implicitly favors the wealthy, who hold a disproportionately large share of financial assets. Meanwhile, companies have become increasingly aggressive in their efforts to reduce their tax bills, including through socalled inversions, by which they move their headquarters to lower-tax jurisdictions. As a result, most countries face a trio of inequalities – of income, wealth, and opportunity – which, left unchecked, reinforce one another, with far-reaching consequences. Indeed, beyond this trio’s moral, social, and political implications lies a serious economic concern: instead of creating incentives for hard work and innovation, inequality begins to undermine economic dynamism, investment,
Mohamed A. El-Erian is Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz and a member of its International Executive Committee. He is Chairman of President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council and the author, most recently, of When Markets Collide. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org
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Unleashing Africa’s girl power By Joaquim Chissano Sub-Saharan Africa’s economies have boomed in recent years. But the headline figures often mask longer-term problems – not least, an over-reliance on natural resources and chronic inequalities. Inclusive, sustainable growth is achievable, but only by tapping the continent’s greatest reserve of energy and creativity: African women and girls. Health and development experts, economists, non-governmental organisations, United Nations agencies, and banks agree that the key to unlocking Africa’s potential lies in expanding women’s education, freedom, and job opportunities. Today, many African women are not only expected to fulfill traditional roles, such as raising children and caring for the elderly; they also face legal and social discrimination regarding land and property ownership, inheritance, education, and access to credit and technology – in addition to oppressive sexual mores and violence. Yet gender equality is necessary for the continent’s well-being. Consider the pressing issue of food security. Women comprise half of the agriculture sector’s workforce, growing, selling, buying, and preparing food for their families. Studies suggest that equal access to resources would increase farm yields by 2030%, offsetting the effects of drought and climate change. Access to education, capital, markets, and technologies would allow women to process, package, and market their products, especially for Africa’s growing middle class, bolstering both earnings and food supplies.
Agriculture is but one example. Greater female participation in male-dominated occupations across the board would increase overall labor productivity by up to 25%. The same is true of politics, where more female participation and leadership would improve governance and public services, as promising experiences in some parts of Africa and elsewhere have shown. The first step to improving conditions for women must be to strengthen their sexual and reproductive health and rights – an issue concerning which Africa has some of the world’s worst indicators. Simply put, women must be allowed to decide, free of coercion or violence, about their sexuality and health; if, when, and whom to marry; and whether and when to become a parent. This cannot happen without providing women and girls with the information, education, and services they need to make their own decisions. Sexual and reproductive health issues exact a huge yet largely avoidable toll on African women, their families, and communities. The costs usually strike in the prime of women’s economically productive lives, devaluing their future contributions to society. At the extreme, more than 400 African women and girls die every day during pregnancy or childbirth, scarring families and plunging surviving children into hardship. Many of these deaths are caused by the estimated five million unsafe abortions carried out annually in Sub-Saharan Africa. The cost to society in lost income from death and disability is nearly $1 bln. Almost all of these deaths occur in countries with restrictive abortion laws, which African leaders should consider reforming as a matter of common sense and social justice. A prime focus should be on protecting the most vulnerable – adolescent girls. More than one-third of African girls marry before the age
of 18, which threatens their health, truncates their education, and lowers their aspirations for the future. They are also more likely than older women to die of birth-related complications, and are more prone to abuse. Though most African states outlaw early or forced marriages, enforcement is weak. African girls are also disproportionately vulnerable to contracting HIV. Roughly 90% of the world’s pregnant women and children with HIV live in Africa, and, despite notable recent reductions in HIV transmission rates, adolescent girls are still more than twice as likely as boys of the same age to carry the virus. Yet barely a third of young Africans know how to prevent HIV – another reason for urgent and comprehensive sexuality education. Another epidemic afflicting African women is violence, all too often perpetrated with impunity. Sexual violence is used as a tactic of war. But it is also a disturbing feature of home life; 37% of African women report having been abused by their partner. In the case of female genital mutilation and child marriage, such violence is culturally sanctioned. We must change laws, judicial systems, and attitudes that exonerate the perpetrators, and we must provide help to victims. Attitudes can change. Contraception, for example, was once a contentious issue. Today, most African leaders accept it as an important, cost-effective investment and as part of their countries’ economic-development strategies. Basic family planning in 16 Sub-Saharan countries could save more than $1 bln in education costs alone. The number of maternal deaths could fall by one-third, saving millions (in developing countries overall, maternal and new-born health-care savings could reach $5.7 bln). However, the sad reality is that, despite support from various development partners and donors, assistance
for reproductive health care and family planning fell by half in the last decade. The compounding benefits of ending legal, economic, and gender discrimination are vast. Healthier, wealthier, and better-educated women tend to produce healthier, wealthier, and better-educated families, because women typically invest more of their earnings than men do in their children’s wellbeing. With the continent’s population forecast to double by 2050, there is hardly a better time to invest in women and girls. It is as much an economic as an ethical argument. Joaquim Chissano, former President of Mozambique, co-chairs the High-Level Task Force for the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD). © Project Syndicate/Europe’s World, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org, www.europesworld.org
Your data or your life By Lucy P. Marcus Apple’s new watch keeps track of your health. Google Now gathers the information needed to compute the ideal time for you to leave for the airport. Amazon tells you the books you want, the groceries you need, the films you will like – and sells you the tablet that enables you to order them and more. Your lights turn on when you get close to home, and your house adjusts to your choice of ambient temperature. This amalgamation and synthesis of digital services and hardware is designed to make our lives easier, and there is no doubt that it has. But have we stopped asking fundamental questions, both of ourselves and of the companies we entrust to do all of these things? Have we given sufficient consideration to the potential cost of all of this comfort and ease, and asked ourselves if the price is worth it? Every time we add a new device, we give away a little piece of ourselves. We often do this with very little knowledge about who is getting it, much less whether we share their ethics and values. We may have a superficial check-box understanding of what the companies behind this convenience do with our data; but, beyond the marketing, the actual people running these organisations are faceless and nameless. We know little about them, but they sure know a lot about us. The idea that companies can know where we are, what we have watched, or the content of our medical records was anathema a generation ago. The vast array of details that defined a person was widely distributed. The bank knew a bit, the doctor knew a bit, the tax authority knew a bit, but they did not all talk to one another. Now Apple and Google know it all
and store it in one handy place. That is great for convenience, but not so great if they decide to use that information in ways with which we do not proactively agree. And we have reason to call into question companies’ judgment in using that data. The backlash to the news that Facebook used people’s news feeds to test whether what they viewed could alter their moods was proof of that. I do not recall checking a box to say that that was okay. Recently, hackers misappropriated photos sent via Snapchat, a service used primarily by young people that promises auto-deletion of all files upon viewing. Likewise, health-care data were always considered private, so that patients would be open and honest with health-care professionals. As the lines between health care and technology businesses become hazy, some manufacturers of “wearables” and the software that runs on them are lobbying to have their products exempted from being considered medical devices – and thus from regulatory requirements for reliability and data protection. Privacy is only one part of a larger discussion around data ownership and data monopoly, security, and competition. It is also about control and destiny. It is about choice and proactively deciding how people’s data are used and how people use their own data. More mature firms have phased in formal protocols, with ethics officers, risk committees, and other structures that oversee how data are collected and used, though not always successfully (indeed, they often depend on trial and error). Small new companies may have neither such protocols nor the people – for example, independent board members – to impose them. If serious ethical lapses occur, many consumers will no longer use the service, regardless of how promising the business model is. We like new applications and try them out, handing over access to our Facebook or Twitter accounts without much
thought about the migration of our personal data from big companies with some modicum of oversight to small companies without rigorous structures and limits. Consumers believe or expect that someone somewhere is keeping an eye on this, but who exactly would that be? In Europe, legislation to protect personal data is not comprehensive, and much of the rest of the world lacks even rudimentary safeguards. After exploring this issue with legislators in several countries over the past couple of months, it has become abundantly clear that many do not have a full grasp of the myriad issues that need to be considered. It is a difficult subject to address, and doing so is impeded by lobbying efforts and incomplete information. In the short term, young companies should view ethics not as a marketing gimmick, but as a core concern. All organisations should invest in ethics officers or some sort of review process involving people who can assess all of the implications of a great-sounding idea. Legislators need to educate themselves – and the public – and exercise more oversight. For example, just as many countries did with car seatbelts a generation ago, a public-safety campaign could be paired with legislation to explain and promote two-step verification. In the longer term, as we rightly move toward universal Internet access, we need to ask: How much of ourselves are we willing to give away? What happens when sharing becomes mandatory – when giving access to a personal Facebook account is a job requirement, and health services are withheld unless a patient submits their historical Fitbit data? If that is the future we want, we should stride toward it with full awareness and a sense of purpose, not meander carelessly until we fall into a hole, look up, and wonder how we got there. Lucy P. Marcus is CEO of Marcus Venture Consulting. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org
October 22 - 28, 2014
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Samaras: We can ride out market turbulence and quit bailout Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said last week that Greece would ride out market doubts about whether it can survive without international support, telling Reuters he can lead his country out of a four-year bailout and not call early elections. Samaras said Athens was talking with its lenders about what should happen if Greece succeeds in leaving its bailout programme by the end of December, a year ahead of schedule, as officials hope. The leader of a fragile coalition sees one option as a credit line that the government could tap post-bailout should it fall prey to future market turmoil. “We can now stand on our feet; we have the resources to come out of the programme, and we are preparing... in constructive cooperation with lenders for ‘the next day’, after we exit the programme,” Samaras said in the interview with Reuters. But the details of any such credit line have yet to be negotiated - nor has Greece finished a review with its international lenders of the measures it has taken so far. It is far from clear whether lenders would offer funds without strict conditions for the country. Samaras has been eager to tell voters that the pain of budget cuts imposed by outsiders is
over after six years of recession. He also said Greece would not hold snap elections next year, a possibility that has worried investors who fear political instability might undermine reform efforts. “Elections will be held in June 2016, at the end of the four-year parliamentary term,” he said. “Our new president will be elected early next year,” he added, referring to a parliamentary vote in early February to elect a new head of state. The outcome of the presidential vote could, in turn, prompt an early national election, if Samaras does not get enough backing to push through his candidate. So far, the Prime Minister’s majority in parliament is well below that needed to win the vote, so he needs backing from opposition parties. Samaras is gambling that an early bailout exit can revive his fortunes and lure independent lawmakers to his side. The austerity measures imposed in exchange for a 240 bln euro bailout have been very unpopular, and Greeks say pension and salary cuts imposed by the troika of lenders have impoverished the population. But before it can leave the bailout behind it, EU and IMF inspectors must return to Athens after the publication of the results from a euro
zone-wide bank health check later this week. Greece’s bank bailout fund has 11 bln euros in leftover money, which Athens can tap if it needs to cover any future funding shortfalls. But a three-day sell-off in the markets has again pushed Greece’s 10-year bond yields past 9% and sent shares tumbling to their lowest since July last year. Bond and share prices recovered somewhat on Friday, with 10year yields falling to 8% while the Athens stock index was up 7%. The government says it has no need for
more money, including some 9 bln euros that the IMF is to give it between January 2015 and March 2016. It therefore wants to quit the programme early. But while Greeks see the IMF as the main author of the austerity measures of the past few years, many international investors see the Fund as the guarantor of future Greek creditworthiness. One of the scenarios for Greece would be an Enhanced Conditions Credit Line (EECL), from the European bailout fund. But even this would come with conditions, allowing the euro zone to retain control that the Samaras government doesn’t want. Officials are hoping that they can come to a compromise, with the government’s own reform agenda as a guarantee of economic discipline, according to people close to the government. Samaras told Reuters that Greece would stay on the path of “fiscal prudence and structural reforms ... as the ticket to economic growth”. He added: “We have already paid a high price as a country for past mistakes. Wouldn’t it be totally unfair and contrary to any logic, if we had to pay a price again, only this time due to our success?”
Syriza still leads ND in latest poll The radical anti-bailout Syriza party would beat Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ conservatives if an election were held now, but its lead has slipped, an opinion poll showed over the weekend. A Metron Analysis survey for Parapolitika newspaper said support for Syriza was running at 32.9%, against 26.1% for Samaras’New Democracy and 4.7% for the juniorn coalition partner Socialist PASOK.
A previous poll showed support for Syriza at 34.1%, while New Democracy was at 26.2%. Most surveys have suggested that if elections were held now, there would be no outright winner. The latest survey was carried out after Samaras won a confidence vote in parliament that he had called in an effort to quell talk of early elections. However, many analysts believe Samaras will not be able
Jumbo reports 11% jump in Q1 sales
Bakers made the longest ‘koulouri’ and displayed it during the Thessaloniki Food Festival on Sunday. The traditional bun is 150 metres long and required 700 kilos of flour and 250 kilos of sesame to make. (Photo: ANA/CNA)
Yields o n track for bigge st rise sinc e 2012 Lower-rated euro zone bonds clawed back some losses on Friday after one of the sharpest sell-offs since the height of the 2012 euro crisis, with the possibility of further European Central Bank stimulus seen as a barrier against a steeper rise in yields. Greek yields remained on track for their biggest weekly rise since 2012 and Portuguese bonds were on course for their worst week since 2013. Spanish and Italian bonds also sold off heavily this week, although they remained much closer to their record lows than their 2012 peaks. Greek 10-year yields were down 88 basis points to 8.07%, following their biggest two-day rise since mid-2012 with the biggest one-day fall since the same period. They have jumped more than 200 bps in the
to garner sufficient backing early next year when parliament has to vote for a new president, as failure to pick a head of state would automatically trigger national elections. Another poll by Kapa Research published in To Vima showed support for Syriza was 27.4% against 23.5% for New Democracy. About 50% of those polled approved the government’s plan to exit the bailout early, while 39% wanted Greece to stick to the original timetable.
past week as investors took additional risks into account, such as the likelihood of early elections next year - and potentially a radical shift to the far left. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras reiterated the government’s plan to exit its international funding programme a year early, mooted at the start of the week and another reason cited for the sharp sell- off. Greece was talking to lenders about a potential credit line postbailout, he said. The rise in yields could give the government pause, though. With bond yields at 9%, an exit strategy is just not possible, say fund managers who hold Greek debt. They argue that when they can raise money at 4-5%, Greece can talk of exiting the IMF programme, but leaving now is not seen as realistic.
Jumbo, the toy and retail giant that has enjoyed steady growth at home and abroad, reported a 11% rise in sales in its first quarter ending on September 30. The company operates 53 stores in Greece and 14 in Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania, with a three more expected in Greece, Cyprus and Romania by the middle of next year. It said turnover for the first quarter of its financial year was 145.5 mln euros, up from 131.2 mln euros in the same period last year. The retailer’s trading update on the Athens Stock Exchange said that turnover in Cyprus and Bulgaria grew by double-digit percentages, with a strong tourist season in Greece also boosting sales. The company stuck to its guidance for net profit of 90-95 mln euros and a 4-6% rise in sales for the full year to next July, agencies reported. Jumbo will have a more accurate picture of full-year expectations after its second quarter, which includes the all-important Christmas season, a spokeswoman for the company said.
No surprises in ECB stress tests
Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis said in an interview published on Saturday that he did not expect the European Central Bank’s health checks to show major surprises for Greek banks. “I cannot know the results, but I believe that there won’t be any big surprises,” Hardouvelis told weekly Realnews. “Should they need additional capital, I think that they will be able to raise it rather easily from the market.” The ECB will release the results of its EUwide bank stress tests on Sunday, October 26. National Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank and Eurobank, which account for 90% of the banking sector, suffered heavy losses in recent years due to rising bad loans and their participation in a debt
restructuring programme (PSI) aimed at relieving the country’s debt burden. All four have been recapitalised twice after two stress tests by the Greek central bank. The lenders were rescued by the EU and IMF, which set aside 50 bln euros in the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) to clean up the sector after its battering in the country’s sovereign debt crisis. The HFSF has 11.4 bln euros in leftover money which the government hopes to use as a reserve to cover its funding needs after the end of the year, when it hopes to exit its bailout programme, a year ahead of schedule. Hardouvelis told the paper the remaining HFSF funds could be tapped as an emergency cushion.
October 22 - 28, 2014
24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com
Apple earnings boosted by over 39 mln iPhones Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has reported its fourth quarter earnings. The maker of the iPhone 6 reported earnings of $1.42 per share on revenues of $42.1 bln. Thomson Reuters had consensus earnings estimates of $1.31 in earnings per share and $39.85 bln in revenue. The same quarter for the previous year was $1.18 in earnings per share and $37.47 bln in revenue. Apple said that gross margin was 38% versus 37% last year, and international sales were 60% of revenues. The company had a record of $13.3 bln in cash flow from operations, but it spent $20 bln returning capital to shareholders. Product sales were as follows: iPhone was 39.272 mln units for revenue of $23.678 bln; iPad was 12.316 mln for $5.316 bln; Mac was 5.52 mln for $6.625 bln; iTunes/Software/Services revenue was
$4.608 bln, up from $4.485 bln in the prior quarter this year and up from $4.26 bln in the fourth quarter of last year; Accessories revenue was $1.486 bln, up from $1.325 bln sequentially and up from $1.319 bln a year ago. Looking ahead to Apple’s fiscal first quarter, the company gave guidance of $63.5-66.5 bln in revenues, with gross margin of 37.5-38.5%, and a tax rate of 26.5%. The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates are $2.40 in earnings per share and $63.52 bln in revenue. Apple shares closed up 2.1% at $99.76 against a 52-week range of $70.51 to $103.74. Apple’s 50-day moving average was just above the closing price at $99.94. Apple’s consensus price target ahead of earnings was $112.64, but that is now likely to change this week. All in all, this should have pleased most market watchers. Still, the
stock’s initial reaction was up a mere 0.2% at $99.06 in the after-hours trading session on Monday after the report.
By Jon C. Ogg (Source: 24/7 Wall St.com)
5 tech victims suffer the wrath of IBM’s earnings The IT services and hardware sector had a gut check on Monday following the earnings announcement from International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM). Just when companies thought that they had escaped the market carnage from the previous week, IBM’s earnings caused this sector to take a loss. 24/7 Wall St. has looked over the IT services and hardware sector and found some of the biggest victims of IBM’s earnings. IBM hit a three-year low following the poor earnings report that was released before the market opened on Monday. The shares of this computer giant have recently been trading down over 7% at $168.94 from the previous close of $182.05. The share price hit a relative low amid the market carnage from the previous week of $178.69. It has a 52-week trading range of $165.25 to $199.21. Five other technology peers of a sort were lower in
sympathy, while many others were actually up on the day. Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) manufactures and sells networking equipment. On Monday shares traded down almost 2% to 22.82 from the previous close of $23.25. Last week during the market carnage, they hit a relative low of $22.49, a level not seen since May. The stock has a 52-week trading range of $20.22 to $26.08. Cisco remains the dividend king of technology. EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) deals specifically with data storage, information security, analytics and cloud computing. The company’s shares recently traded down almost 1% to $26.87. In the previous week, shares hit a relative low of $26.65. They have a 52-week trading range of $23.15 to $30.18. EMC has so far been able to press back against activist investing themes. Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) provides hardware, software and IT services to customers across all sectors. In
Monday’s trading, shares were down over 1% to $33.70, and last week shares were as low as $31.62 - levels not seen since May. They have a 52-week trading range of $23.45 to $38.25. HP now is firmly entrenched in its plans to split into two. SAP SE (NYSE: SAP) may have been the biggest victim of IBM’s earnings with shares dropping as far as 7% to $64.10, a two-year low. SAP produces enterprise software to manage business operations and customer relations. It has a 52-week trading range of $64.10 to $87.42. Teradata Corp. (NYSE: TDC) sells analytic data platforms, applications and related services. It has seen its shares take a dip in Monday’s trading of about 3% to 40.93. Last week, shares hit a relative low of $39.54, which had not been seen since May. They have a 52-week trading range of $37.66 to $49.57.
By Chris Lange
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