FinancialMirror Can Dilma Rousseff rise to the challenge?
Time for a new macroeconomic strategy
By Oren Laurent - PAGE 18
By Jeffrey D. Sachs - PAGE 21
Issue No. 1106
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October 29 - ¡ovember 4, 2014
A new Middle East strategy Greece, Egypt, Cyprus ministers meet on energy security - PAGE 3
25 Eurozone banks fail ECB ‘stress tests’ 3 Cypriot banks pass, Hellenic to raise funds PAGES 4 - 7
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com
FinancialMirror Published every Wednesday by Financial Mirror Ltd.
Getting rid of fraud, ten years on EDITORIAL
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During the ACCA’s centennial celebrations a decade ago, marked in Cyprus together with the local accounting body, ICPAC, the then-chef executive Allen Blewitt admitted that “there is no perfect answer to stopping fraud.” Referring to the accounting scandals of Enron, WorldCom and Parmalat, Blewitt had added that “with the best will in the world, with the best regulatory structures in the world, it is still possible that an individual can commit fraud.” However, he concluded that “regulation and responsibility are twin halves of the same issue,” and that “responsibility is a cornerstone of the profession, whether we are talking about transparency or integrity. Appropriate corporate governance is part of best practice, appropriate financial reporting and audit.” At the time, even the ACCA introduced a change to its code or practice whereby any member of staff could report cases of malpractice of lack of corporate governance directly to the chairman. So, have we learned anything from the landmark decisions introduced ten years ago? Judging from the growing number of cases of tax fraud and embezzlement that are popping up like mushrooms all over the place, as well as the avalanche of bribery reports only recently reaching Transparency International Cyprus, it would seem
that fraud still goes on. Worse still, whereas professionals in Cyprus used to balk at levels of corruption in neighbouring countries, it turns out that we are not too far behind after all. How can a sewerage contract be overvalued by at least 30 mln euros and no-one got a sniff of the stink going on? How can property zones get redrawn and nobody notices anything suspicious? How can public servants get away with covering up tax evasion? It is clear that fraud and corruption goes unpunished because of the lack of transparency and responsibility. Had we had transparency all this time, such as the doomed “whistleblower” legislation, then a lot of the stink would have cleared up a long while ago and the newcomers in public service would be cautious not to err in their duties. And if we had even a speck of responsibility in our conscience, then more than half of our politicians and public servants would have resigned their posts a long time ago and gone home. This is what the Attorney General, the Justice Minister, the Presidential Commissioner for Reform and the President himself should be dealing with, and not their petty differences with others that belittle them. Without transparency, responsibility and proper corporate governance, no foreign investor in his right mind would consider pumping money into Cyprus, knowing full well that the present environment carries a high level of risk. Those who have invested are willing to take that risk, but this should not be the exception, but rather the rule.
THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO
TC trade still on, funds buying BOCY
The ambassador of the Netherlands has denied media reports that the direct trade regulation has been abandoned due to Greek Cypriot opposition, while in market news foreign funds are reported to have bought about 1 mln Bank of Cyprus shares through the Athens bourse, the Financial Mirror reported in issue 591, on October 20, 2004. TC trade: Max Gevers, the Ambassador of the Netherlands which holds the EU rotating presidency, denied reports by state broadcaster CyBC that member states had given up trying to introduce preferential trade status for Turkish Cypriots through the direct
trade regulation, with suggestions that the issue of financial aid had been decoupled. Buying BOCY: Foreign funds based in Greece and other European countries are reported to have bought at least 1 mln shares of Bank of Cyprus through the Athens Stock Exchange pushing the stock to EUR 2.41/CYP 1.39, probably due to a favourable climate regarding small banking stocks. Study in UK: A record 5,500 Cypriots are believed to be currently studying at the universities in the UK, up from 4,000 last year, taking advantage of EU accession and Cypriots paying ‘local’ fees of GBP 1,150 for undergraduate degrees and 3,000 for graduate courses. As of 2006, UK university fees are expected to rise to GBP 3,000. Tourism up: Tourist arrivals were up 5.6% in September at 303,506 from the year earlier, but lower than the 305,926 seen in August, with the year to date
total at 1,877,263 from 1,823,547 I the same period last year, an increased of 2.9%. The UK maintained the lion’s share with 59% of arrivals, followed by Germany, Sweden, Greece and Russia. Trade deficit: The trade deficit surged 20.6% year on year to CYP 1.29 bln from 1.06 bln a year ago as total imports were up 16.9% and exports rose a miserable 1.8%. Bottom rankings: Cyprus has been placed 38th out of 104 in the World Competitiveness rankings compiled by the World Economic Forum and 19th out of the EU 25, behind new members Estonia, Malta, Slovenia and Lithuania. Fitch on Hellenic: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Hellenic Bank’s ratings at Long-term ‘BBB+’ with a ‘stable’ outlook, due to a strong likelihood government support would be forthcoming if necessary, based on its adequate capital base and large stock of sub-standard loans.
Lebanese nationals already receive their visas at Larnaca airport. Newsprint rise: SCA and Modo, the two largest Swedish paper manufacturers announced a 25% increase in continental European newsprint costs by the end of the year, with Cyprus publishers expected to raise cover prices from 30 cents to 35 or 40
estimated at USD 1 bln a month. BOCY expansion: Bank of Cyprus Chairman Solon Triantafyllides said that the bank’s expansion plans are progressing well, including the Metamorphosis facelift of all branches and IT automation. First half profits were at CYP 13.1 mln, up 12.3% from the year-earlier period. Other plans include expanding factoring operations to Greece, the listing of shares on the Athens Stock Exchange, the smooth takeover of Karmazi Properties and Investment and issuing bonds worth CYP 10-15 mln to boost its capital needs. KEO down: Beverages giant KEO reported a 65% drop in profits for the full 1993, down from CYP 2.4 mln to 846,000 as both local and export sales had dropped, despite the takeover of Laona-Arsos winery, while beer and wine sales were down 10% due to a drop in tourist arrivals.
20 YEARS AGO
Cyprus and Lebanon ties, paper cost to rise
Cyprus and Lebanon aim tp boost trade and political ties by lifting visa restrictions, the Cyprus Financial Mirror reported in issue 82, on October 26, 1994, while worldwide newsprint price rises of 25% were expected to have a 5-10c impact on local newspapers. Lebanon ties: Cyprus and Lebanon agreed to boost relations and trade cooperation following a three-day visit by Foreign Minister Fares Bouez, accomp0anied by a trade delegation. One of the many agreements signed includes scrapping of visas byu Cypriot nationals who can now get one upon arrival at Beirut airport, seeing as
cents. Russian money: Cyprus-based ‘brass plate’ Russian offshore companies have once again been accused of being used by so-called Russian mafia networks to penetrate western financial systems with the object of laundering their illicit cash, the Financial Times reported. The on-transfers are mainly headed to Switzerland, while the break-up of the Soviet Union has brought in its wake a huge flight of capital to the west
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October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 3
Drawing up a new Middle East strategy Greece, Egypt and Cyprus ministers meet on energy
Cyprus Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides will host his counterparts from Greece and Egypt in Nicosia on Wednesday as a follow up to their meeting in New York last September and to lay the ground for their heads of state summit in Cairo next month, where energy security and strategic cooperation will be the main topic of discussion. This is within the context of the third round of Ministerial Trilateral meetings between Greece, Egypt and Cyprus that were launched on November 2013. The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Greece, Evangelos Venizelos arrived late on Tuesday and is joined by the Foreign Minister of Egypt, Sameh Hassan Shoukry, who, together with Kasoulides, will give a press conference on Wednesday afternoon. The three met last in New York last September, on the sidelines of the 69th U.N. General Assembly and agreed on the upcoming trilateral summit in Cairo on November 8. The Ministers are expected to discuss ways to strengthen the cooperation between the three countries on issues of mutual interest with particular emphasis on security, energy and tourism, as well as their role and responsibility in contributing to regional stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Venizelos and Shoukry will also be received by President Nicos Anastasiades who was the only head of state from the European Union invited to attend the inauguration of Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi earlier this year, a fact that does not go unnoticed by Middle East commentators. The main issue that concerns all three states, is closer cooperation in the face of Turkey’s aggression in the eastern Mediterranean, where Egypt has enjoyed a long tradition of
being an influential force and Cyprus that is struggling to secure its own resources, currently being explored by international oil majors Noble Energy, ENI, Kogas and Total. Greece, on the other hand, is also keen to explore its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ) which lies mainly in the Aegean Sea and faces similar threats of aggression from neighbouring Turkey, that continues to claim its right to marine resources. Although the trilateral ministers’ and heads of state meeting is not expected to produce any major change as regards military cooperation among the three, however it does pave the way for further alliances in the eastern Mediterranean, bar Turkey. Even the Greek Professor of International Law and President of the Administrative Court of the European Council, Christos Rozakis, said that Turkey’s aggression into the Cyprus EEZ with it’s own exploration vessels, translates into the efforts by Ankara to take advantage of the volatile situation in the region and exert “a full participation in all aspects of exploration for hydrocarbons, suggesting that Turkey does not intend to back down from its actions. Already, taking in mind Israel’s discovery and recent start of exports of its offshore natural gas resources, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon declared during an interview with National Public Radio during a five-day tour of the United States, said that “the borders of the Middle East are bound to change”, while also referring to the on-land threat from the likes of the Islamic State and the collapse of Iraq and Syria. Former Ambassador and political commentator Andrestinos N. Papadopoulos wrote in a recent article published in the Financial Mirror that “the ‘Arab Spring’ weakened the state and
offered the opportunity to radical Islamic groups to get organised and become non-state factors in the Middle-eastern scene and beyond.” “These new realities have brought to the fore new players and interests. First and foremost, Iran has become a major player for many reasons. It is considered a factor of stability in the wider region if we take into account what is happening in Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya, etc. Willing to strengthen its Shiite allies in Iraq against the jihadist, Iran has found itself on the same side with Turkey and the U.S. Although Turkey sided with Iran against ISIS, in the Syrian civil war they supported opposite sides,” Dr Papadopoulos wrote. “Taking advantage of the crisis in the region, Turkey took the unilateral action to send warships, where ENI/Kogas started exploratory drilling and to state her intention to carry out seismic studies in Cyprus’s southern exclusive economic zone (EEZ), thus violating every norm of international law. This action gives another dimension to the crisis which is of interest to Cyprus and the countries of the eastern Mediterranean,” the former diplomat concluded.
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com
Cyprus banks pass EU-wide “stress tests” FinMin: Results mark final stabilisation of banking system
Four of Cyprus’ ‘systemic’ banks have survived a gruelling stress test by European banking regulators that conducted a health check on the Eurozone’s 130 leading banks to see if they could withstand major cash upheavals over the next three years. This also means that they will not need state support, thus releasing about 1 bln euros earmarked in the economic adjustment programme agreed to with the Troika of international lenders. Recently recapitalised Bank of Cyprus, the state-owned Cooperative Central Bank and privately-controlled Hellenic Bank passed various test levels, but only just, thanks to a combined cash injection of nearly 2.6 bln euros this year, with inspectors saying Hellenic still faces a shortfall of over 100 mln years, that the government considers “manageable” and which it’s shareholders have vowed to cover. Only RCB Bank (formerly Russian Commercial Bank), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Russian giant VTB, passed the stress tests with flying colours, having enough capital to resist even the harshest of ‘adverse scenarios’ imposed by the European Central Bank. The stress test results on capital adequacy, hailed by Finance Minister Haris Georgiades and Central Bank Governor Chrystalla Georghadji as a “turning point” for the Cypriot banking system, will also pave the way for the ECB to take full supervisory control of all 130 banks and several thousand smaller or regional financial institutions.
GEORGIADES: BANKING STABILITY
Harris Georgiades said that the stress test results mark the final stabilisation of the banking system which, in 2011-2013, was led to the brink of collapse, noting at the same time that public debt has shown a downward trend for the first time in several years. The Minister of Finance said that the Cypriot banks, including the Cooperative sector, enter the banking union and the direct supervision of the ECB with capital adequacy, enhanced supervisory and regulatory framework, new administrations and significant participation of foreign investors and especially with the ability to contribute to the recovery of the economy. He said that the challenges still remain that are related to excessive lending of past years, consequences of failed policies and supervisory decisions of that particular period, adding that there is no room for complacency. He said that “the rating agencies’ successive upgrades reflect the recorded correction of the economy, the recession has concluded its cycle, unemployment has recorded a decline for the first time since 2008 and public finances are under control.” “But we have still a long way to go and we have to continue having a sense of responsibility,” he said. Georgiades concluded that efforts should now be directed towards dealing with the non-performing loans and lowering interest rates.
GEORGHADJI: OPTIMISTIC FUTURE
Central Bank Governor Chrystalla Georghadji said that the results of a comprehensive assessment for Cypriot banks by the ECB and the European Banking Authority published on Sunday are good cause to face the future with optimism. “The results are particularly positive for the Cypriot economy, since they demonstrate that the actions taken during 2014 and all the efforts and actions for boosting the banking sector were more than satisfactory,” she said. These results “will contribute to strengthening depositors’ trust, which in turn will be able to contribute to the effort for economic growth”, creating the right conditions in order to lift the remaining capital controls. Georgadji said it is important that the reserve of EUR 1 bln provided for in Cyprus’ international bailout plan, intended to
cover any capital needs of the banking system, will not be used. This means that public debt will be EUR 1 bln less than what has been projected based on the Memorandum of Agreement (MoU) of the Cyprus bailout. According to the ECB stress test results, the Cooperative Central Bank (racpailised by the state with EUR 1.5 bln) recorded a surplus of EUR 331 mln, Bank of Cyprus (recapitalised by investors with EUR 1 bln) a surplus of EUR 81 mln, whereas RCB completed the exercise with a surplus of EUR 112 mln. Hellenic Bank, that raised EUR 100 mln in fresh capital earlier this year, registered a capital shortfall of EUR 176 mln. However the bank said that it will proceed with a a rights issue and other actions worth EUR 71 mln will help reduce the overall capital shortfall to EUR 105.
ACB: SATISFIED
The Association of Cyprus Banks (ACB) has expressed satisfaction with the positive results of the stress tests, adding that the exercise strengthens the efforts at home and European level to achieve transparency, consolidating stability and building confidence in the financial system and the banking sector across Europe. The results show that “our banks have responded positively to the strict quality control requirements of the assets and exercise stress test and that is in a position to cope with future risks that might arise from a possible rapid deterioration of economic data.”
BOCY: PRE-EMPTIVE CAPITAL COVERS SHORTFALL
The pre-emptive capital raise ensured that the Bank of Cyprus absorbed the capital shortfall that emerged from the comprehensive assessment carried out by the European Central Bank, the Bank of Cyprus said. Stress test revealed a capital shortfall of EUR 919 mln in the adverse scenario, covered by the EUR 1 bln capital raise resulting in an overall surplus of EUR 81 mln. “The positive result reaffirms the solid capital position of the bank, even under the most extreme, severe theoretical stress conditions,” said Chairman Cristis Hassapis, adding this “will further strengthen the confidence of depositors and other stakeholders towards the bank.” On his part, CEO John Hourican said that “the well-timed and deliberate actions taken during 2014, and in particular the pre-emptive EUR 1 bn share capital increase, have ensured a positive result.” “The share capital increase has generated a significant capital buffer, ensuring that the bank could weather even the adverse stress scenario envisaged by the authorities,” he stressed. The European bank for Reconstruction and
Development (EBRD) subscribed to EUR 120 mln of the capital raise, with a group of other investors, headed by fund manager Wilbur Ross, taking up a further EUR 400 mln, and subsequently eyeing control in the November 20 shareholders’ meeting.
CO-OP: OUTCOME IS WELCOME
The Co-operative Central Bank has welcomed the outcome of the stress tests, which revealed a capital surplus of EUR 331 mn under the adverse scenario. In a statement, the CCB said it would continue “the methodical work to enhance the traditional role of the Co-ops in the Cypriot society and economy”, based on these results. It said that the baseline scenario of the stress tests revealed a capital surplus of EUR 526 mn and the adverse scenario EUR 331 mn.
HELLENIC: WILL COVER SHORTFALL
The Hellenic Bank said that the results of the comprehensive assessment, which resulted in a shortfall of EUR 105 mln, are in line with the capital plans of the bank. According to ECB rules, the dozen banks that did not pass the stress test must submit a new business plan, which the bank said it has done and which it says is “manageable” even under adverse capital stress conditions. “The bank is already at an advanced stage of raising capital through a rights issue, for an amount which will exceed the Comprehensive Assessment outcome,” a bank statement said. Chairman Irena Georgiadou said that the EUR 105 mln shortfall under the adverse scenario “is fully in line with our capital raising actions.” “Our planned rights issue will raise significantly more than the residual Comprehensive Assessment calculation, and this will allow us to pursue our ambitious strategic growth plans to gain market share and utilise our large liquidity buffer. Our major shareholders support these growth plans as well as the capital raising”.
RCB: SUCCESSFULLY PASSED
RCB Bank said it has successfully passed the asset quality review and the stress tests, suggesting that the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1) in the adverse scenario is more than twice the minimum requirements. “We are satisfied with the results. Success in passing the stress tests demonstrates that RCB Bank has retained stability and is a reliable partner for its clients. The availability of significant capital reserves will enable the bank to implement its plans on international business development, as well as to boost its lending to Cypriot companies and expand its business in Cyprus,” said Kirill Zimarin, CEO of RCB Bank.
OEV: Success due to sacrifice of businesses and households The Employers and Industrialists Federation (OEV) said that the successful outcome of the stress tests under adverse conditions “is undoubtedly the result of serious and methodic work by the management, administration and staff at the respective banks, as well as the proper cooperation with the supervisory authorities.” “However, it is also the result of the effort and unprecedented sacrifices and losses suffered by Cypriot businesses and households, all those who comprise the real economy and who are unfairly paying the cost of the banking tragedy,” it said. OEV said that “from the beginning of this enormous adventure we have emphasized the need to support the banking system, despite the
undermining and shortfalls by others that risked the viability of the banks. We came to support whatever decisions needed that were painful in the short term to all businesses, but are proving necessary for the long term survival of the economy.” The conclusion of the stress tests and their supervision by a single bank supervisory mechanism completes the first stage of this big cycle of the road map towards restoring stability in the Cyprus economy, OEV said. It concluded that the return to conditions of development and the continued unemployment demand the reduction of interest rates so that the nonperforming loans can reach manageable levels and the refinancing of the economy resumes on a healthy level.
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
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After stress tests, banking sector is “pretty solid” Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics After the largest and most detailed review of bank assets ever conducted, the European Central Bank published its Asset Quality Review of euro-area banks’ balance-sheets. The results of the ECB’s stress tests suggest the eurozone’s banking sector is pretty solid, even though 13 banks will need to strengthen their balance sheets by EUR 10 bln over the next nine months. Following the ECB’s announcement of additional credit easing measures this summer (TLTROs, asset purchases), the publication of the AQR was the last hurdle in the way of a normalisation of credit supply conditions in the eurozone. Even more importantly, the AQR marks the start of Europe’s banking union project, which should lead to the gradual de-nationalisation and harmonisation of banking systems, and so to a more consistent euro-area. General confidence in the health and transparency of the eurozone’s banking sector now has the potential to improve, with favorable implications for financial markets and the economy. Over the last year, thousands of inspectors have combed through the books of 130 eurozone banks, probing assets worth EUR 3.7trn, or 58% of their risk-weighted portfolios. According to the banks, this has been a surprisingly broad and intrusive process, with a large share of banks’ assets checked in detail, especially those assets most liable to misstatement. The results indicate that at the end of 2013, the value of bank assets was overstated by EUR 48 bln, while
under harmonized standards non-performing loans were understated by EUR 136 bln. The stress tests reveal that under adverse economic and financial conditions, bank capital ratios (the common equity tier 1, restated on the basis of the findings of the AQR) would decline from 12.4% to 8.3%, well above the 5.5% minimum threshold. However, the ECB found that at the end of 2013, 25 banks were overly vulnerable to adverse scenarios, although 12 have already addressed their capital shortfall by raising equity and selling bad assets. Since the summer of 2013, banks’ balance sheets have been strengthened by EUR 203 bln through the issuance of equity and contingent convertibles, earnings and asset sales. As expected, Italy and Greece face the biggest problems, although even there the capital shortfall does not look insurmountable. This does not mean that the eurozone’s banking sector, which suffers from obvious overcapacity, has suddenly become rock solid and immune to shocks. But the AQR and stress tests should accelerate the process of defragmentation, ending the credit crunch in Europe. Monetary policy should now stand a greater chance of reaching the real economy, and a modest increase in aggregate credit appears credible next year. In addition, the AQR was also the first step of a long march towards banking union in continental Europe, with the 130 tested banks coming under the supervision of the ECB from 4 November this year. With the European Commission also proposing a capital markets union, the project should gradually reduce the large differences among national banking and credit markets, helping companies and individuals to diversify their sources of financing. If cross-
border mergers and acquisitions take place (as is now more probable), the links between sovereign risks and bank risks would weaken, strengthening the resilience of the euro. Already, we can see that, apart from rare exceptions like Dexia, ‘multi-local’, pan-European and global banks tend to be more resilient and profitable than very local banks. In this respect, it is no coincidence that following the vicious Darwinian selection that has taken place since 2007, geographically diversified banking institutions make up the lion’s share of market capitalisation in eurozone bank indexes: seven of the eurozone’s 10 most highly capitalised listed banks, representing two-thirds of the MSCI EMU bank index, get more than half of their revenues from outside their home country. For these banks, the AQR went well, and investors may re-rate them. Overall, the AQR should be bullish for bank stocks as it removes doubts about the real measure of book values. Analysts and investors will now read the AQR to identify the most solid banks, as well as the potential targets. With most bank shares trading below book value, and with dividend yields above 4%, the potential upside is significant. In a context of resurgent worries about the eurozone, and with economic weakness and political divisions raising doubts about the sustainability of the 2012/2013 relief rally, the publication of the AQR and the associated launch of the ‘banking union’ should help to limit the downside, and could even revive some optimism about the eurozone. Along with the expected benefits from a weaker euro, lower oil prices and reduced fiscal drag, the AQR makes the case for a re-acceleration of the economy next year more compelling.
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
6 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com
25 Eurozone banks fail ECB stress tests About one in six of the eurozone’s top banks failed stress tests based on their capital adequacy at the end of last year, with nine Italian lenders falling short in a comprehensive assessment released on Sunday by the European Central Bank. Painting a brighter picture than had been expected, the ECB found the biggest problems in Italy, Cyprus and Greece but concluded that the banks’ capital holes had since chiefly been plugged, leaving only a modest EUR 10 bln to be raised, the EU news and policy site EurActiv reported. Speaking shortly after the publication of the health checks, Roberto Gualtieri, Chairman of the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament (the ECON Committee), said that since the beginning of the financial crisis, the parliament had been fighting hard to create genuine, strong financial supervision at an EU level. Sunday’s announcements “are a crucial step towards the full implementation of the Banking Union that will put an end to market fragmentation. The importance of the work of the ECB and the European Banking Authority cannot be overemphasised: the tests are not an academic exercise, but part of a larger effort to put the EU banking sector on solid footing and to make credit flow to the real economy and bring back growth and jobs,” Gualtieri said. “The European Commission will have to ensure that the state aid rules are fully respected and we look forward to hearing Commissioner Margrethe Vestager at the ECON Committee on 11 November. It is extremely important to ensure a levelplaying field,” he said. Italy faces the biggest challenge with nine of its banks falling short and two still needing to raise funds. The test, designed to mark a clean start before the ECB takes on supervision of the banks next month, said Monte dei Paschi di Siena had the largest capital hole to fill at EUR 2.1 bln. The exercise provides the clearest picture yet of the health of the eurozone’s banks more than seven years after the eruption of a financial crisis that almost bankrupted a handful of countries and threatened to fracture the currency bloc. While 25 of the eurozone’s 130 systemic banks failed the health check at the end of last year with a total capital shortfall of EUR 25 bln, a dozen have already raised EUR 15 bln this year to make repairs. ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio said the results could encourage banks to lend, adding that “there is some pick up (in demand), but it is still slight.” Regulators said three Greek banks, three in Cyprus, two from both Belgium and Slovenia, and one each from France, Germany, Austria, Ireland and Portugal had also missed the grade as at the end of 2013. Analysts generally gave the results a cautious welcome, saying they marked the beginning rather than the end of a banking clean-up in Europe. “I consider the stress test as an important partial success, which will help reduce uncertainty,” said Marcel Fratzscher, president of Germany’s DIW economic institute.
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“However, important challenges remain unsolved. The stress test alone will not end the credit crunch for small and mid-sized companies in southern Europe.” Some were more critical. “The real issue is the size of the capital shortfall and that is very, very small. I don’t feel a whole lot more reassured about the health of the banking system today than last week,” said Karl Whelan, an economist with University College Dublin. The exercise provided a snapshot of banks’ vital statistics and forced them, for example, to revise the amount of risky loans - which have not been serviced in 90 days - upwards by EUR 136 bln to EUR 879 bln. The exercise is credible, said Nicolas Veron of Brussels think tank Bruegel. “But it is only the start of a longer sequence of cleanup that will extend well into 2015.” The ECB’s passmark was for banks to have high-quality capital of at least 8% of their risk-weighted assets, a measure of the riskiness of a bank’s loans and other assets, if the economy grows as expected over the next three years, and capital of at least 5.5% if it slides into recession. Banks with a capital shortfall will have to say within two weeks how they intend to close the gap. They will then be given up to nine months to do so.
For many banks, the biggest impact of the tests was not in identifying capital holes but in finding that their assets, such as loans, had been overvalued. In total, the ECB said banks had been valuing their loans and assets at EUR 48 bln more than they are really worth. This was because they had not recognised EUR 136 bln of bad loans. Among the major listed banks, the biggest hits were to Greece’s Piraeus Bank, whose core capital fell by 3.7 percentage points after the ECB adjusted the bank’s capital to reflect the new asset valuations. Monte dei Paschi’s capital was reduced by almost a third. There was also a big impact on Austria’s Erste Bank. The ECB will not immediately force lenders with overvalued assets to take remedial action but they will have to hold more capital eventually, leaving less room to expand, lend or pay dividends. “The exercise has used a common framework to assess the capital needs of banks and marks the substantial progress that has been achieved towards a banking union,” said Gerry Rice, Director of the Communications Department at the IMF. “The high level of transparency and comparability of the results will enable market participants to make their own assessments of bank health, which should help boost confidence,” Rice added.
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
financialmirror.com | CYPRUS | 7
Eurozone lending to business and households slows Lending to eurozone households and companies contracted at a slower pace in September, and money supply grew faster than expected, suggesting that a cycle of tightening credit conditions in the bloc is gradually coming to an end, the EU news and policy site EurActiv.com reported. Data released by the European Central Bank on Monday showed loans to the private sector fell by 1.2% in September from the same month a year earlier, after a contraction of 1.5% in August. Eurozone M3 money supply grew at an annual pace of 2.5%, up from 2.1% in August. The ECB published results on Sunday of its stress tests of the eurozone banking sector, an exercise its vice president said would help ensure the availability of credit, though he noted Europe still has a lack of demand. “Today’s figures are a mixed bag,” ING economist Peter Vanden Houte said of the money supply data. “While the data are somewhat better than expected, pointing to a bottoming out of the credit cycle, they still don’t signal a strong credit recovery over the coming quarters.” ECB data showed that lending to companies in the
eurozone periphery continued to fall in September, while banks in core countries kept lending more, highlighting divergences in credit conditions within the bloc, the EurActiv report said. Policymakers are desperate to revive the eurozone economy, which is barely growing and dogged by low inflation of 0.3%, far below the ECB’s target of just below 2%. The ECB, seeking ways to brighten the eurozone’s economic picture, is considering buying corporate bonds and may decide on the matter as soon as December with a view to beginning purchases early next year, several sources familiar with the situation told Reuters last week. However, ECB President Mario Draghi has stressed that the ECB alone cannot tackle the eurozone’s woes, and urged crisis-hit countries to get their economies into shape with reforms. He has also made a thinly veiled appeal for Germany to embark on a round of deficit-funded investment spending, adding his voice to that of other regional policymakers. But with Germany wedded to strict budget discipline and other countries taking time to implement structural reforms,
markets are looking to the ECB to do more. Eurozone banks, especially in crisis-stricken countries, have tightened their purse strings in response to tougher capital requirements and the health check of the sector, while companies have held off investments, unsure of the future. To solve the problem, the ECB has started offering banks four-year loans at ultra-cheap rates and has begun buying covered bonds. It also plans to buy asset-backed securities to ease the burden on banks’ balance sheets and entice them to lend, but these measures will take time to gain traction. Sunday’s ECB health check results showed roughly one in five of the eurozone’s top lenders failed the exercise at the end of last year, though most have since repaired their finances by raising fresh capital or reducing debt. “The ECB will now be fervently hoping that the results of its European bank stress tests that were released on Sunday lift confidence in the eurozone banking system and that this encourages banks to lend more, in tandem with the ECB’s stimulus measures,” said IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer.
PwC: Banking crisis not over yet
The chairman of ECB’s financial supervisory committee, Daniele Nouy (back) and ECB vice president Vitor Constancio said 25 eurozone banks failed stress tests to determine their financial stability, based on their balance sheets as of December 2013 (Photo: EPA)
One of the ‘Big 4’ audit and advisory firms that has worked with over 60% of banks in the comprehensive assessment exercise by the European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority said that a solution to the banking crisis is not over yet and challenges still remain. The Comprehensive Assessment is a special prudential exercise performed by the ECB under a specific regulatory framework which differs in many important respects from International Financial Reporting Standards. In response to the publication of the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment results, Colin Brereton, economic crisis response Lead partner at PwC, said that “the Comprehensive Assessment results are in, and although this should restore some confidence and stability to the market, we are still far from a solution to the banking crisis and the challenges facing the banking sector. “The Comprehensive Assessment was only a one-off test of solvency, not of ongoing viability,” Brereton said, adding that “the test of long-term viability is whether banks can generate sufficient returns to cover all their costs, including capital costs. The immediate focus will be on those institutions that have failed the Assessment. They will need to raise additional capital, and shareholders will look for assurances on getting a return on that capital. “All banks, including those that have passed the test today, must offer a satisfactory return to their shareholders. For those
Moody’s: Broad resilience of euro area banks Moody’s Investors Service said that the completion of the joint Comprehensive Assessment (CA) by the European Central Bank (ECB) and European Banking Authority (EBA) of the balance sheets and resilience to shocks of European banks marks an important step toward the establishment of a credible Single Supervisory Mechanism in the region. “Overall, Moody’s views the results of the CA as credit positive for euro area bank creditors, with the most notable outcomes of the exercise being the progress toward balance-sheet repair and the improved transparency of bank accounts,” said Carola Schuler at Moody’s. Moody’s conclusions were contained in a just-released report titled “Results of ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment Reveal Broad Resilience of Banks’ Balance Sheets to Adverse Conditions”. The report is part of Moody’s ongoing coverage on the progress towards a Banking Union in the EU and associated credit implications for banks in the region. “At the same time, Moody’s believes that the ECB’s declared aim of restoring confidence in Europe’s banking systems will take time and could be challenged by the still difficult character of the operating environment which faces the region’s banks,” said Schuler. “Furthermore, many banks have only passed the stress test by very thin margins and/or could be challenged in meeting requirements based on fully-phased-in capital ratios. Accordingly, many banks will be expected to do more,” added Schuler. Moody’s said that of the 130 euro area banks assessed, 105 were given a verdict of good health and due resilience, while of the 25 deemed as being unable to meet the minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) requirements in the asset quality review, as well as ‘base’ and/or ‘adverse’ scenario tests, 12 have already met their shortfalls; one is exempt from addressing a shortfall; and the remaining 12 require additional capital of EUR 9.5 billion. The Moody’s median Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) for the rated firms in this group (12 of 25) is caa2, highlighting that this selection matches the rating agency’s assessment of the more vulnerable banks in Europe. Moody’s expects that most of these banks will be able to close their capital shortfalls by drawing on their own resources. However, in this context, the risks for investors in subordinated instruments remain high to the extent that any of these banks struggle to meet their targets. The European Commission has set rules for burden sharing specifically in regard to capital shortfalls resulting from the stress test. These rules require bail-in (or conversion into equity) of subordinated instruments before public funds are used to address a shortfall.
banks in relatively better shape, there are potential growth opportunities,” he concluded. As regards the positive results of the comprehensive assessment of the Cypriot banks, Stelios Constantinou, Banking Industry Leader at PwC Cyprus, said that “our four banks have responded positively to the strict asset quality review requirements and stress tests. We have to recognise the progress they made over the last year and also acknowledge that there is still work to be done to restore fully investor confidence.” “We have to continue with the necessary changes and reforms that will make the country more competitive, banks must be open to changes in the way they structure and fund their businesses,” Constantinou said, adding that “there will be continued pressure on bank balance sheets, including focus on the management of non-performing loans, capital adequacy, liquidity and leverage. “The sustainability of banks will also be under supervisor scrutiny as part of their review and evaluation process, for which the Comprehensive Assessment is the starting point,” he concluded. PwC said that it has worked with over 60% of banks in the comprehensive assessment exercise, either as “AQR auditors” for the national competent authorities (NCAs) of 32 banks across 12 countries or providing AQR bank side support (46 institutions across ten countries), as well as advised banks on the stress test.
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
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Fitch upgrades Cyprus on better public finances S&P says services sectors, has proved resilient
Rating agencies Fitch and Standard and Poor’s have upgraded Cyprus sovereign ratings based on the improved image the government is projecting with its better management of public finances, while praising the services sector as being a ‘resilient’ factor in th economy’s stability and growth. Fitch upgraded Cyprus’ outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ on Friday citing better than expected public finances performance and smaller budget deficits. The agency also affirmed its longterm foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at ‘B-’, as well as the issue ratings on Cyprus’s senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds at ‘B-’. The Country Ceiling and the Short-term foreign currency IDR have been affirmed at ‘B’. “Developments in public finances continue to materially exceed previous expectations,” Fitch noted, adding that due in part to a shallower recession than previously forecast, the strong budget execution should help narrow the headline fiscal deficit to 3.3% of GDP in 2014, significantly below the 5% projected by Fitch in April. Noting that Cyprus has implemented fiscal adjustment
measures amounting to 6.8% of GDP in 2013 and 2014, Fitch pointed out that “nevertheless, it will still be challenging to meet the over-arching objective of a primary budget surplus of 4% of GDP by 2018, though recent outturns provide some encouragement.” However, Fitch expects the recession to last longer than assumed under the Troika bailout programme, with the economy projected to shrink by around 0.8% in 2015, compared with EU/IMF projectios for a 0.4% growth in 2015, and return to growth in 2016. According to Fitch, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio (GGGD) is now expected to peak a year earlier in 2015 and decline more rapidly than under previous forecasts. The agency projects that public debt is expected to peak at 113% of GDP in 2015 (compared with over 126% in the previous review) and to gradually decline to 100% by 2020. Standard & Poor’s also raised its rating for Cyprus on Friday, with the long-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings upped to ‘B+’ from ‘B’, affirming the short-term foreign and local currency ratings at ‘B’ and the outlook ‘stable’.
“Cyprus is strongly committed to its economic adjustment programme,” it said, adding that the economy, especially in the key services sectors, has proved resilient, contracting by less than it had anticipated. “Cyprus has complied with its economic adjustment programme … that should remain on track even if there are disbursement delays by its official lenders (due to delays in parliament adopting mortgage foreclosure reforms). Cyprus’ real GDP, S&P estimates, “will likely contract by about 3% in 2014, compared with our previous forecast of 3.8%, based on a robust performance in the tourism sector and a resilient business services sector.” Investment growth will be held back by domestic banks’ deleveraging, as well as by Cyprus’ weak legal framework for lender protection and the economy’s high credit risk which is exacerbated by high real interest rates and deflationary pressures, all leading to stress on Cyprus’ financial stability. “If implemented, the proposed foreclosure legislation would, in our view, improve Cypriot banks’ ability to seize collateral on past due loans,” S&P said.
Ex-CB chief gets ENI will keep on drilling, says FM 5 months for tax fraud The former head of the central bank was handed a five month prison sentence on Monday for his involvement in a case of tax evasion over a million-euro deal during the final days of his term in office. Christodoulos Christodoulou, who has also served as Finance and Interior ministers in previous administrations, pleaded guilty last month to six charges of tax offences after the state prosecuted him over the transfer of EUR 1 mln to the company managed by his daughter in 2007, just a few months after his term as governor expired. The Court also ordered the family company (A.C Christodoulou Consultants Ltd) to pay a fine of EUR 13,500. Invited to comment on the court decision, government spokesman Nicos Christodoulides said that in general, society wants ‘catharsis’ over the economic scandal. He added that the people have sacrificed a lot and this reflects to the recent stress tests results. He added that the people have been patient and want all those who are responsible for the economic crisis to be punished. Christodoulou first appeared in court in May and faced eleven charges of tax fraud, conspiracy and forgery in a trial that began in June. Christodoulou, his daughter Athina, her estranged husband and former Laiki Bank executive Andreas Kizourides and AC Christodoulou Consultants were alleged to have received an amount of EUR 1 mln from Focus Maritime Corporation in Greece and not declared it in their accounts between 2007 and 2009, while taxable dividends reported were nearly a tenth of the actual amount, according to state prosecutor Andreas Aristeides. The Nicosia District court had also asked the Greek authorities to investigate the reasons for the money transfer and if there had been any trade-off related to the deal. One of the charges also suggests that the amount was transferred to Athina Christodoulou’s account less than two months after her father left the central bank. Press reports alleged at the time that the real beneficiary behind the Focus deal was former Laiki boss Andreas Vgenopoulos whose Marfin Investment Group had been named in several inquiries probing the collapse of the island’s banking system due to unprecedented lending with little or no security to business associates. Vgenopoulos refuted the allegations and challenged Focus Maritime executives to come forward and clear his name. Focus Maritime was also mentioned as being a major donor to the island’s two leading parties – the Democratic Rally (DISY) affiliated to the European Popular Party, and the communist AKEL, affiliated to the NGL-United Left alliance within the European Parliament. Ruling DISY was reported to have received EUR 500,000 and AKEL EUR 1.5 mln, embarrassing both parties and destroying the credibility of their leaders who had been vying to win the six seats allocated to Cyprus.
Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides said on Tuesday that Italian exploration giant ENI will not halt its exploration for oil and gas offshore Cyprus, despite provocations by Turkish vessels within the Cyprus exclusive economic zone (EEZ). However, Kasoulides also expressed his dismay at the international community that has so far failed to call on Turkey to end its violations. The Turkish seismic survey vessel ‘Barbaros’ entered the Cyprus EEZ after Ankara issued a maritime order (NAVTEX) for the area, prompting President Nicos Anastasiades to suspend his participation in the UN backed negotiations which aim to reunify the island under a federal roof. The ENI/KOGAS UItalian-Korean consortium has been awarded exploration licenses in offshore blocks 2, 3 and 9, having already completed two seismic surveys, and plans to drill six wells in the next 18 months. French Total is also expected to start exploratory drilling, while US-based Noble Energy and Israeli partners Delek and Avner have already discovered initial deposits and are exploring for more. Government spokesman Nicos Christodoulides said there cannot be a dialogue while Turkey violates Cyprus’ sovereign rights, adding that Ankara’s actions prove that she is not interested in a solution. Meanwhile, MEP Neoklis Sylikiotis said that a delegation of the European Parliament Committee which deals with
matters of energy security will be paying Cyprus a visit in September 2015. The goal, he said, was to promote Cyprus’ significance in Europe’s energy security. At the same time Sylikiotis that a proposal has been adopted for the participation of former State Hydrocarbons Company (KRETYK) President Charles Ellinas in a EP hearing on November 5 on energy matters.
Russian tourists to peak at 650,000 Cyprus tourism officials believe that the number of tourist arrivals from Russia will peak at 650,000 this year, second only to arrivals from the U.K., while Russians are also the third best spenders on the island. Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO) Vice Chairman Kostas Koumis said that plans are already underway with new partnerships to increase tourist arrivals in 2015, both from Russia and other European and nonEuropean countries. “Given that in 2013, around 608,000 Russian tourists arrived in Cyprus, we hope that if arrivals in coming months reach the same levels as the months of the previous year, tourists will reach 650,000 which is a record
number,” he noted. He said that the future of the Russian tourist market for 2015 “depends on what is happening in Russia, knowing that the Russian government is considering to impose taxes on trips outside of Russia.” Unfortunately, he added, this could have a negative impact on Cyprus. The monthly Passenger Survey for January-July conducted by the Statistical Service Cystat saw revenue from tourism rise to EUR 1,099.9 mln compared to 1,036.2 mln in the same period of 2013, an increase of 6.1%. Total per capita spending dropped to EUR 841.00 compared to 936.80 in July 2013, while daily spending dropped to EUR 78.30 from 89.40, the statistical service said earlier in October. The highest per capita spending was recorded by tourists from France with EUR 1,000.70, followed by the Swiss with 940.10 and the Russians with 934.40. Meanwhile, CTO Director General Marios Hannides said that there are no official projections showing a decline in the Russian tourist flow for next year, but spoke of “potential difficulties” from the impact of measures taken by the Russian government, such as taxes on foreign travel and the devaluation of the rouble against the euro. Speaking during the presentation of a KPMG study for the restructuring of CTO, Hannides said that the purchasing power of Russian tourists is constrained by an increase in the VAT to 18% and visa problems. He said that there are some encouraging signs from the cooperation with Arab countries, owing to CTO’s efforts to establish direct flights with these countries.
EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A AÚ. 988
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∂˘Úˆ·˚ο stress-tests ¯ˆÚ›˜ stress… ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Άλλο ένα ΕυρωπαϊκÞ φιάσκο είχαµε την εβδοµάδα που µασ πέρασε Þπου τα πολυαναµενÞµενα stress-tests ανακοινώθηκαν αλλά ήταν οτιδήποτε άλλο εκτÞσ απÞ stress. Αυστηρά οµιλούντεσ µε οικονοµικούσ Þρουσ τι είναι τα stress-tests; Τα τραπεζικά τεστ αντοχήσ (stress tests) είναι ουσιαστικά προσοµοιώσεισ µελλοντικών οικονοµικών γεγονÞτων, που µοντελοποιούν αντίξοα οικονοµικά σενάρια (worst-case scenarios), σχεδιασµένα για να αξιολογήσουν αν µια τράπεζα ή ένα χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ ίδρυµα έχει επαρκή κεφάλαια για να αντέξει τισ επιπτώσεισ δυνητικών αρνητικών εξελίξεων «στην οικονοµία». Και τονίζουµε το «στην οικονοµία». Μια οικονοµία η οποία στισ πλείστεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ βρίσκεται σε συνεχÞµενη ύφεση, η ανεργία έχει κτυπήσει µέχρι και 30%, ο αποπληθωρισµÞσ είναι συνεχÞµενοσ, τα µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια έχουν ξεπεράσεισ τα 900 δισ ευρώ ενώ οι τιµέσ των ακινήτων βρίσκονται σε συνεχÞµενη πτώση. Τα δεδοµένα αυτά αποτελούν το βασικÞ σενάριο (base case scenario) και Þχι το αντίξοο (worst-case scenario) πάνω στο οποίο πρέπει να βασιστούν τα stress tests. Επίσησ στην Κύπρο έχουµε και το παράδοξο, οι Τράπεζεσ να τελούν υπÞ καθεστώσ τραπεζικών περιορισµών, πράγµα που δεν µπορεί να αγνοηθεί στην διενέργεια των stress tests αφού Þταν οι περιορισµοί αρθούν κανείσ δεν µπορεί να πει µε σιγουριά σε ποιο µέγεθοσ θα είναι η εκροή καταθέσεων. Στην Αµερική, που τρέχει µε ανάπτυξη γύρω στα 3% εδώ και τρία χρÞνια και η ανεργία έχει κατέβει κάτω απÞ το 6% για πρώτη φορά απÞ το 2007, τα stress tests που θα επιβάλει η Fed τον ερχÞµενο Ιανουάριο στουσ δικούσ τησ χρηµατοπιστωτικούσ οµίλουσ, απέχουν έτη φωτÞσ απÞ τα Ευρωπαϊκά. Ùπωσ εύστοχα επισηµαίνουν έµπειροι αναλυτέσ µεταξύ των δυο «σχολών» εποπτείασ υπάρχει τεράστια απÞσταση. Φέρνοντασ ωσ χαρακτηριστικÞ παράδειγµα Þτι κατά το ακραίο σενάριο τησ FED η ανεργία προβλέπεται να ανέβει
στο 10%, απÞ 5,9% που βρίσκεται σήµερα και πτώση των αγορών κατά 60%. Επίσησ πολύ σηµαντικÞ είναι το γεγονÞσ πωσ η FED δεν αποδέχεται τα κρατικά οµÞλογα. ΑπÞ την άλλη τα ευρωπαϊκά τεστ αντοχήσ είναι υπερβολικά “soft” και πολύ πιο επιεική απÞ Þ,τι τα αµερικανικά. Εάν οι ευρωπαϊκέσ τράπεζεσ υποβάλλονταν στα αµερικανικά stress tests, ίσωσ να µην περνούσε σχεδÞν καµία. Καταρχήν αυτÞ συµβαίνει εξαιτίασ τησ ευέλικτησ ερµηνείασ του τι συνιστά “core capital” (βασικά κεφάλαια). Στισ ΗΠΑ, το core capital είναι κεφάλαιο. Στην Ευρώπη, υπάρχουν πολλέσ µεταβλητέσ που στηρίζουν την ανάλυση. Για παράδειγµα, το Þφελοσ απÞ την αναβαλλÞµενη φορολογία (Deferred tax assets) δεν θεωρείται κεφάλαιο στισ ΗΠΑ, σε αντίθεση µε την Ευρώπη. Επίσησ, οι ορισµοί των µη εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων είναι χαλαρÞτεροι στην Ευρώπη, ενώ οι τράπεζεσ µπορούν να συµπεριλάβουν τα κρατικά οµÞλογα στα core κεφάλαιά τουσ, παρά τον κίνδυνο χρεοκοπιών. Επίσησ οι ευρωπαϊκέσ τράπεζεσ έχουν ενισχύσει τα επίπεδα των κεφαλαίων τουσ, εν Þψει των τεστ, συγκεντρώνοντασ περίπου 80 δισ. ευρώ µέσα στο 2013 και σχεδιάζοντασ να αντλήσουν άλλα 60 δισ. ευρώ φέτοσ πράγµα το οποίο λήφθηκε υπÞψη στην διενέργεια των stress tests. Πράγµα αν µη τι άλλο παράδοξο αφού κανείσ δεν γνωρίζει εκ των προτέρων αν οι συνθήκεσ στισ αγορέσ θα είναι τέτοιεσ που
θα επιτρέψουν την άντληση των 60 δισ. Το πιο παράδοξο Þµωσ παραµένει το παράδειγµα τησ Κύπρου Þπωσ και τησ Ελλάδασ, τησ Πορτογαλίασ και τησ Ιρλανδίασ. Τα αποτελέσµατα των stress tests χρησιµοποιούνται απÞ τισ εποπτικέσ αρχέσ για να εξετάσουν κατά πÞσο οι τράπεζεσ διαθέτουν κατάλληλεσ διαδικασίεσ διαχείρισησ κινδύνου (risk management) σε περίπτωση που περιοριστούν σηµαντικά οι πηγέσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ τουσ, Þπωσ για παράδειγµα σε περίπτωση “παγώµατοσ” τησ αγοράσ, ή σηµαντικήσ µείωσησ του αριθµού των καταθέσεων / καταθετών τησ (depositor run). Πωσ κρίνονται οι Κυπριακέσ τράπεζεσ επαρκείσ Þταν το depositor run απÞ πιθανή άρση των τραπεζικών περιορισµών δεν λαµβάνεται καθÞλου µα καθÞλου υπÞψιν? Επίσησ πωσ γίνεται οι ελληνικέσ, πορτογαλικέσ και ιρλανδικέσ τράπεζεσ µε τα µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια να έχουν ξεπεράσει το 50% και τουσ ισολογισµούσ τουσ να ευνοούνται απÞ το τρικ του deferred tax assets να έχουν περάσει τα stress tests µε πλήρη επιτυχία; Είναι ξεκάθαρο το τι έχει συµβεί. Το πρωτοφανή πατατράκ που πέρασαν οι Ευρωπαϊκέσ χρηµαταγορέσ τισ τελευταίεσ εβδοµάδεσ δηµιούργησε µια εικÞνα ανασφάλειασ, αβεβαιÞτητασ και έντονησ εσωστρέφειασ. Για να αποφευχθεί αυτή η δυσµενήσ εξέλιξη και µε την συγκατάβαση τησ ΕΚΤ και µε αφορµή τα πρÞσφατα δραµατικά γεγονÞτα στισ αγορέσ που απέδειξαν πÞσο εύθραυστη είναι η κατάσταση (κραχ στα χρηµατιστήρια, άνοδοσ αποδÞσεων οµολÞγων), αποφασίστηκε τα stress tests να µην περιλαµβάνουν τÞσο ισχυρÞ stress Þσο αρχικώσ σχεδιαζÞταν. Τα stress tests των τραπεζών χρησιµοποιήθηκαν µε Þρουσ πολιτικούσ ώστε να στηριχθεί και η εύθραυστη πολιτική ισορροπία στισ µνηµονιακέσ κυβερνήσεισ. Εξάλλου αυτÞ φαίνεται και απÞ το γεγονÞσ πωσ τα stress tests βασίστηκαν στουσ κανονισµούσ Bασιλείασ ΙΙ και Þχι Bασιλείασ ΙΙΙ ο οποίοσ θα αρχίσει να ισχύει απÞ το 2019. Βάσει τησ Βασιλείασ III το ευρωπαϊκÞ banking εκτιµάται πωσ είναι κατά 100 µονάδεσ βάσησ χαµηλÞτεροσ απÞ τισ πρÞσφατεσ επιδÞσεισ στα stress tests. Εξέλιξη που σηµαίνει πωσ το ευρωπαϊκÞ banking των µνηµονιακών χωρών θα κληθεί να αναζητήσει νέα κεφάλαια, προκειµένου να ανταπεξέλθει στισ αυξηµένεσ απαιτήσεισ των νέων κανονισµών.
Moody’s: ™ˆÛÙ¿ ‚‹Ì·Ù·, Ô˘ ı· ¿ÚÔ˘Ó ¯ÚfiÓÔ ΣηµαντικÞ βήµα στη δηµιουργία ενÞσ αξιÞπιστου Ενιαίου Εποπτικού Μηχανισµού (SSM) στην Ευρωζώνη, χαρακτηρίζει ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ πιστοληπτικήσ αξιολÞγησησ Moody’s τη συνολική αξιολÞγηση των ευρωπαϊκών τραπεζών και την ανθεκτικÞτητα τουσ στουσ κραδασµούσ, που διενήργησε η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και η Ευρωπαϊκή Αρχή Τραπεζών. ΤαυτÞχρονα, ωστÞσο, οι Moody’s διαµηνύουν Þτι “θα πάρει χρÞνο” η αποκατάσταση τησ εµπιστοσύνησ στο ευρωπαϊκÞ τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα. “Βλέπουµε την συνολική αξιολÞγηση ωσ θετική για τον τραπεζικÞ τοµέα τησ Ευρωζώνησ, µε τα πιο αξιοσηµείωτα αποτελέσµατα αυτήσ τησ άσκησησ να είναι η πρÞοδοσ προσ την βελτίωση των ισολογισµών και τησ διαφάνειασ των τραπεζικών λογαριασµών”, αναφέρει ο διεθνήσ οίκοσ, σε ειδική έκθεση που εξέδωσε µε τίτλο “ισχυρÞ βήµα προσ τη σωστή κατεύ-
θυνση”. “Ο διακηρυγµένοσ, ωστÞσο, στÞχο τησ ΕΚΤ για αποκατάσταση τησ εµπιστοσύνησ στο ευρωπαϊκÞ τραπεζικÞ σύστηµα, θα πάρει χρÞνο και θα µπορούσε να αµφισβητηθεί απÞ το δύσκολο ακÞµη λειτουργικÞ περιβάλλον που αντιµετωπίζουν οι τράπεζεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ”, σηµειώνει ο οίκοσ. Σε σχέση µε τισ τράπεζεσ που απέτυχαν, ο Moody’s αναφέρουν Þτι το γεγονÞσ Þτι οι εννέα απÞ τισ 12 που δεν πέρασαν την αξιολÞγηση εντοπίστηκαν σε Κύπρο, Ελλάδα, Ιρλανδία, Ιταλία, και Πορτογαλία, είναι σύµφωνα µε τισ προσδοκίεσ τουσ. Σηµειώνει Þτι οποιεσδήποτε αλλαγέσ στισ αξιολογήσεισ αυτών των τραπεζών θα έρθουν µÞνο µετά απÞ περαιτέρω αξιολÞγηση των κεφαλαιακών τουσ ελλειµµάτων και απÞ την ικανÞτητα τουσ να αντιµετωπίσουν τισ ελλείψεισ αυτέσ. Κατά συνέπεια, η αποκατάσταση τησ εµπιστοσύνησ τησ αγοράσ στα τραπεζικά συστήµατα τησ Ευρώπησ θα χρειαστεί
περισσÞτερο χρÞνο, καθώσ και η διαδικασία δεν είναι πλήρωσ στον έλεγχο των τραπεζών και των εποπτικών αρχών τουσ, καταλήγουν οι Moody’s.
∑ËÌȤ˜ ÛÙÔ Ã∞∫ ÌÂÙ¿ Ù· ÙÂÛÙ ·ÓÙÔ¯‹˜ Με ζηµιέσ έκλεισε την ∆ευτέρα το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου, στην πρώτη χρηµατιστηριακή συνάντηση, µετά τη δηµοσιοποίηση των θετικών αποτελεσµάτων των κυπριακών τραπεζών στα τεστ αντοχήσ (stress test), εξανεµίζοντασ έτσι τα σηµαντικά κέρδη πέρα του 2% που κατέγραφε στο πρώτο ηµίωρο των συναλλαγών. ΛÞγω τησ αργίασ τησ 28ησ Οκτωβρίου δεν υπήρξε χθεσ χρηµατιστηριακή συνάντηση. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆είκτησ έκλεισε την ∆ευτέρα στισ 110,19 µονάδεσ, υποχωρώντασ σε ποσοστÞ 0,74%.
Ο ∆είκτησ FTSE/CySE20 έκλεισε επίσησ µε ζηµιέσ 0,65% στισ 56,80 µονάδεσ. Ο ηµερήσιοσ Þγκοσ συναλλαγών ανήλθε στισ 78.587 ευρώ. Αρνητικά έκλεισε η πλειονÞτητα των επιµέρουσ χρηµατιστηριακών δεικτών, ενώ αµετάβλητοι παρέµειναν οι δείκτεσ τησ Παράλληλησ Αγοράσ και των Ξενοδοχείων. Με πτώση έκλεισαν η Κύρια Αγορά σε ποσοστÞ 1,04%, η Εναλλακτική Αγορά κατά 2,67% και οι Επενδυτικέσ κατά 0,40%. Σε Þ,τι αφορά τισ µετοχέσ, τη µεγαλύτερη εµπορευσιµÞ-
τητα παρουσίασε η µετοχή τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε Þγκο συναλλαγών 62.877 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,075 ευρώ πτώση 1,32%), ακολουθούµενη απÞ τη µετοχή τησ ΚΕΟ µε Þγκο συναλλαγών 6.500 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,65 ευρώ πτώση 8,45%), τη µετοχή τησ ∆ήµητρα Επενδυτική µε 3.327 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,357 ευρώ, πτώση 0,83%), τησ Κυπριακήσ Εταιρείασ Τσιµέντων µε Þγκο συναλλαγών 2.268 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 0,432 ευρώ - πτώση 10%) και τησ Atlantic Insurance µε 2.200 ευρώ (τιµή κλεισίµατοσ 1,10 ευρώ - χωρίσ µεταβολή).
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
∆¤ÏÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ 2014 ÔÈ ÌÂÙ·ÚÚ˘ıÌÈÛÙÈΤ˜ ÚÔÙ¿ÛÂȘ ÁÈ· ÙÔ ‰ËÌfiÛÈÔ Μέχρι το τέλοσ του έτουσ θα κατατεθούν συγκεκριµένεσ προτάσεισ για τισ προαγωγέσ, τισ αυξήσεισ και το κρατικÞ µισθολÞγιο, στο πλαίσιο τησ µεταρρύθµισησ τησ δηµÞσιασ υπηρεσίασ, δήλωσε ο ΥφυπουργÞσ παρά τω Προέδρω Κωνσταντίνοσ Πετρίδησ. Ο κ. Πετρίδησ, ανέφερε Þτι πέραν τησ στενήσ έννοιασ των πτυχών τησ µεταρρύθµισησ - προαγωγέσ, αυξήσεισ, κρατικÞ µισθολÞγιο - η συζήτηση θα συνεχιστεί για ένα εύροσ θεµάτων, Þπωσ οι σχέσεισ των πολιτών µε το δηµÞσιο, οι τρÞποι
µεταρρύθµιση, ο κ. Πετρίδησ είπε Þτι οι µεταρρυθµιστικέσ και εκσυγχρονιστικέσ προσπάθειεσ που γίνονται σε άλλεσ χώρεσ πρέπει να γίνουν και θα γίνουν και στην Κύπρο. Ανέφερε εξάλλου Þτι σίγουρα υπάρχουν επιχειρηµατίεσ, κÞµµατα, κυβερνώντεσ ή δηµÞσιοι υπάλληλοι, οι οποίοι έχουν χρησιµοποιήσει το σύστηµα προσ ίδιον Þφελοσ και πρÞσθεσε Þτι αυτÞ ήταν εφικτÞ διÞτι το σύστηµα έπασχε και δεν είχε τισ ασφαλιστικέσ δικλείδεσ, οι οποίεσ δεν επιτρέπουν παρεµβάσεισ.
συναλλαγήσ και τα θέµατα διαφάνειασ. Είπε Þτι οι λεπτοµέρειεσ του θέµατοσ αναµένεται να εξεταστούν κατά τουσ επÞµενουσ µήνεσ, µέσα απÞ µια συµβουλευτική επιτροπή η οποία θα απαρτίζεται και απÞ εκπροσώπουσ των κοµµάτων. Χρειάζεται αλλαγή νοοτροπίασ, θα γίνουν κάποια συγκεκριµένα, σηµαντικά πράγµατα σύντοµα, αλλά η προσπάθεια πρέπει να συνεχιστεί και τα επÞµενα χρÞνια, είπε ο ΥφυπουργÞσ παρά τω Προέδρω. Ερωτηθείσ αν είναι αισιÞδοξοσ Þτι θα προχωρήσει η
™ÙÔ ÌÈÎÚÔÛÎfiÈÔ ∂˘Úˆ·›ˆÓ Ô Î˘ÚÈ·Îfi˜ ÂÓÂÚÁÂÈ·Îfi˜ ÙÔ̤·˜ Την Κύπρο θα επισκεφθεί τον Σεπτέµβριο του 2015 αντιπροσωπεία τησ Επιτροπήσ Ενέργειασ Βιοµηχανίασ και Έρευνασ του Ευρωπαϊκού Κοινοβούλιο, ύστερα απÞ πρÞταση του Ευρωβουλευτή του ΑΚΕΛ/Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ενωτικήσ Αριστεράσ Νεοκλή Συλικιώτη, µε στÞχο να αναδειχθεί η σηµασία τησ Κύπρου στην ενεργειακή Ασφάλεια τησ Ευρώπησ. Ùπωσ ανέφερε ο Ευρωβουλευτήσ και ΑντιπρÞεδροσ τησ Οµάδασ του στο ΕΚ η επίσκεψη γίνεται για να µπορεί η Επιτροπή να αποκτήσει καλύτερη αντίληψη για τα ενεργει-
Παράλληλα ο κ. Συλικιώτησ εξέφρασε τη διαφωνία του µε την καθυστέρηση στη λήψη αποφάσεων σχετικά µε το τερµατικÞ στην Κύπρο, αναφέροντασ Þτι δεν συµµερίζεται την άποψη Þτι «δεν µπορούµε να προχωρήσουµε αν δεν υπάρχουν επαρκή κοιτάσµατα». Ùπωσ είπε για να γίνει τερµατικÞ και να υπάρξει προσέλκυση επενδύσεων χρειάζεται µια προεργασία τουλάχιστον 2 χρÞνων. Ο σχεδιασµÞσ, πρÞσθεσε, προνοούσε απÞ την αρχή Þτι θα προχωρούσε η Κύπροσ στην τελική επενδυτική απÞφαση αρχέσ του 2016.
ακά ζητήµατα στην Κύπρο, και αυτÞ θα βοηθήσει την χώρα να πείσει το πÞσο σηµαντική είναι για την ενεργειακή ασφάλεια τησ Ευρώπησ αλλά και τα κοιτάσµατα τησ περιοχήσ. Παράλληλα αναφέρθηκε σε άλλη πρÞταση του που υιοθετήθηκε, για συµµετοχή του πρώην επικεφαλήσ τησ ΚΡΕΤΥΚ Χαράλαµπου Έλληνα, σε ακρÞαση που θα πραγµατοποιηθεί στο ΕΚ στισ 5 Νοεµβρίου για ενεργειακά θέµατα. Στην οµιλία του ο κ. Έλληνασ θα αναφερθεί στα ενεργειακά αποθέµατα τησ Α. Μεσογείου και δη στο ρÞλο που µπορεί να διαδραµατίσει η Κύπροσ στην ενεργειακή ασφάλεια τησ ΕΕ.
«ÕÚÚˆÛÙÔ˜» Î·È ÙÔ 2015 Ô ÙÔ̤·˜ Ù˘ ˘Á›·˜ ΑκÞµα ένα έτοσ αυστηρήσ λιτÞτητασ στον τοµέα τησ υγείασ περιµένει τουσ ασθενείσ, αφού τα κονδύλια του προϋπολογισµού του Υπουργείου Υγείασ για το 2015 είναι ναι µεν ελαφρώσ αυξηµένα κατά 0.9% σε σχέση µε το 2014, ωστÞσο, σύµφωνα µε το ΜεσοπρÞθεσµο ∆ηµοσιονοµικÞ Πλαίσιο, που έχει συµφωνηθεί µε την ΤρÞικα, απÞ το 2014 µέχρι το 2016, το Υπουργείο Υγείασ καλείται να προσφέρει υπηρεσίεσ και να καλύψει τισ ανάγκεσ του, µε µειωµένο προϋπολογισµÞ γύρω στο 10%. Κατά τη διάρκεια συζήτησησ του Κρατικού Προϋπολογισµού του Υπουργείου Υγείασ για το 2015 στην Επιτροπή Οικονοµικών τησ Βουλήσ, ο ΥπουργÞσ Υγείασ Φίλιπποσ Πατσαλήσ είπε συγκεκριµένα πωσ ο προϋπολογι-
¶·Ú¿Ù·ÛË ÁÈ· Ù· Ù¤ÏË Û΢‚¿ÏˆÓ ÙÔ˘ ¢‹ÌÔ˘ §Â˘ÎˆÛ›·˜
σµÞσ του Υπουργείου Υγείασ για το 2015 υπολογίζεται να ανέλθει στα 535 εκ., συγκριτικά µε 530.565.606 εκ. ευρώ το 2014, έχοντασ µια µικρή αύξηση κατά 0,9% (5.017.294 ευρώ επιπλέον). Ο προϋπολογισµÞσ Αναπτύξεωσ για το έτοσ 2015 ανέρχεται στα 19,4 εκ. ευρώ και είναι στα ίδια επίπεδα µε τον εγκεκριµένο προϋπολογισµÞ ανάπτυξησ για το 2014 (19,3 εκ. ευρώ), ενώ ο τακτικÞσ προϋπολογισµÞσ για το έτοσ 2015 ανέρχεται σε 516,1 εκ. ευρώ και παρουσιάζει µείωση ύψουσ 6,7 εκ. ευρώ ή ποσοστÞ -1,30% σε σύγκριση µε τον τακτικÞ προϋπολογισµÞ για το έτοσ 2014 (570,738,791 ευρώ). Παράλληλα, πρÞσθεσε πωσ µε βάσει τα συγκεκριµένα
πλαίσια του µειωµένου προϋπολογισµού του, το Υπουργείο Υγείασ προωθεί την υιοθέτηση τησ ηλεκτρονικήσ υγείασ, µέσα απÞ την επέκταση του Ολοκληρωµένου Πληροφοριακού Συστήµατοσ Υγείασ (ΟΠΣΥ) στα δηµÞσια νοσηλευτήρια µε δαπάνη 4,5 εκ. ευρώ η οποία κρίνεται αναγκαία και απαραίτητη, ενώ σηµείωσε Þτι µε την επέκταση τησ Μηχανογράφησησ, θα επέλθει η αναβάθµιση των παρεχÞµενων υπηρεσιών Υγείασ, η λειτουργία τουσ εντÞσ ενÞσ διοικητικά ελεγχÞµενου περιβάλλοντοσ, για τη συγκράτηση των δαπανών και τη βέλτιστη αξιοποίηση των διαθέσιµων πÞρων, η αντιµετώπιση τησ γραφειοκρατίασ και η διαµÞρφωση πολιτικήσ υγείασ βασιζÞµενη σε ακριβή στατιστικά στοιχεία.
™ÙȘ 7 ¡ÔÂÌ‚Ú›Ô˘ Ë Â›ÛÎÂ„Ë ™·Ì·Ú¿ ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ ∂Ȃ‚·ÈÒıËÎÂ Î·È Â›ÛËÌ· fiÙÈ ÛÙȘ 7 ¡ÔÂÌ‚Ú›Ô˘ ı· ÂÈÛÎÂÊı› ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Ô ¶Úˆı˘Ô˘ÚÁfi˜ Ù˘ ∂ÏÏ¿‰·˜ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ ™·Ì·Ú¿˜, ÚÔÎÂÈ̤ÓÔ˘ Ó· ÌÂÙ·‚› ·fi ÂΛ ÛÙÔ ∫¿ÈÚÔ fiÔ˘ ı· Á›ÓÂÈ ÛÙȘ 8 ÙÔ˘ ÌËÓfi˜ Ë ÚÔ·Ó·ÁÁÂÏı›۷ 1Ë ∆ÚÈÌÂÚ‹˜ ™˘Ó¿ÓÙËÛË ∫ÔÚ˘Ê‹˜ ∫‡ÚÔ˘-∂ÏÏ¿‰·˜-∞ÈÁ‡ÙÔ˘. ™‹ÌÂÚ· ∆ÂÙ¿ÚÙË ÚÈÓ ·fi ÙËÓ ÙÚÈÌÂÚ‹ Û˘Ó¿ÓÙËÛË ÙˆÓ ÀÔ˘ÚÁÒÓ ∂͈ÙÂÚÈÎÒÓ ∫·ÛÔ˘Ï›‰Ë, µÂÓÈ˙¤ÏÔ˘ Î·È ™Ô‡ÎÚÈ, Ô ¶Úfi‰ÚÔ˜ Ù˘ ¢ËÌÔÎÚ·Ù›·˜ ¡›ÎÔ˜ ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜ ı· ˘Ô‰Â¯Ù› ÛÙÔ ¶ÚÔ‰ÚÈÎfi ÙÔÓ ŒÏÏËÓ· À¶∂•. Ãı˜ ÙÔ ·fiÁÂ˘Ì· Ô Î. µÂÓÈ˙¤ÏÔ˜ ·Ú¤ÛÙË ÛÙËÓ ÂΉ‹ÏˆÛË Ù˘ ¶ÚÂۂ›·˜ Ù˘ ∂ÏÏ¿‰Ô˜ ÛÙË §Â˘ÎˆÛ›· ÁÈ· ÙËÓ Â¤ÙÂÈÔ Ù˘ 28˘ √ÎÙˆ‚Ú›Ô˘.
Ο ∆ήµοσ Λευκωσίασ ανακοίνωσε Þτι δίνεται παράταση πληρωµήσ του Τέλουσ Αποκοµιδήσ Σκυβάλων µέχρι τισ 28 Νοεµβρίου 2014. Μετά τισ 29 Νοεµβρίου 2014 θα επιβληθεί 10% επιβάρυνση. Υπενθυµίζεται Þτι πληρωµέσ µπορούν να γίνουν µÞνο στα ∆ηµοτικά Ταµεία: στην Νέα ΣΠΕ Καϊµακλίου στην λεωφÞρο Στασίνου 24, ∆ευτέρα – Παρασκευή 8.00π.µ. – 1.00µ.µ. και στην οδÞ Παλιάσ Ηλεκτρικήσ 13, ∆ευτέρα – Παρασκευή 8.00π.µ. – 3.00µ.µ. Πληρωµέσ µπορούν να γίνουν επίσησ στην ιστοσελίδα του ∆ήµου www.nicosia.org.cy (e-Λευκωσία).
¢‡Ô ÂÈϤÔÓ ÓÔÌÔÛ¯¤‰È· ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ·ÊÂÚÂÁÁ˘fiÙËÙ· Επιπλέον δύο προσχέδια νοµοσχεδίων για το νοµοθετικÞ πλαίσιο αφερεγγυÞτητασ, απέστειλε στα επιτελεία των κοµµάτων το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών, σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ του Κυπριακού Πρακτορείου Ειδήσεων, καλώντασ παράλληλα τουσ εµπειρογνώµονεσ των κοµµάτων σε συνάντηση στισ 5 Νοεµβρίου για συζήτηση των δύο νοµοσχεδίων. Τα δύο νέα προσχέδια νοµοσχεδίων, σύµφωνα µε τισ πληροφορίεσ, αφορούν το νοµοσχέδιο για την ρύθµιση του επαγγέλµατοσ του Συµβούλου ΑφερεγγυÞτητασ και το νοµοσχέδιο που τροποποιεί τον περί πτωχεύσεωσ νÞµο. Στην απÞφαση τησ στισ 6 Σεπτεµβρίου, σε σχέση µε τον υφιστάµενο νÞµο περί πτωχεύσεωσ, η Βουλή, αφού σηµειώνει Þτι ο υφιστάµενοσ νÞµοσ είναι αναχρονιστικÞσ και δεν περιλαµβάνει τα απαραίτητα εργαλεία που απαιτείται να έχει ένα σύγχρονο σύστηµα αφερεγγυÞτητασ, καλεί την εκτελεστική εξουσία Þπωσ εισαχθεί “πρÞνοια για απαλλαγή του οφειλέτη απÞ το καθεστώσ του πτωχεύσαντοσ καθώσ και για την απαλλαγή του απÞ τα εναποµείναντα χρέη του έπειτα απÞ την πάροδο των τριών ετών”, νοουµένου Þτι είναι συνεργάσιµοσ και καλÞπιστοσ, έτσι ώστε να παρέχεται δεύ-
τερη ευκαιρία στον χρεώστη για να επανενταχθεί στην οικονοµία και την κοινωνία ωσ ένα παραγωγικÞ µέλοσ. Μετά την εξέλιξη αυτή, αποµένει πλέον να αποσταλεί στα κÞµµατα απÞ το ΥΠΟΙΚ µÞνο ένα προσχέδιο νοµοσχεδίου για να συµπληρωθεί το Þλο πακέτο των έξι νοµοσχεδίων που αφορούν το πλαίσιο αφερεγγυÞτητασ. ΣτÞχοσ είναι η ολοκλήρωση του νοµοθετικού πλαισίου αφερεγγυÞτητασ µέχρι το τέλοσ του 2014. Σηµειώνεται Þτι την περασµένη Παρασκευή το Υπουργείο είχε αποστείλει τα πρώτα τρία απÞ τα έξι προσχέδια νοµοσχεδίων για το νοµοθετικÞ πλαίσιο αφερεγγυÞτητασ. Η συζήτηση των τριών αυτών νοµοσχεδίων µε τουσ εµπειρογνώµονεσ των κοµµάτων έχει οριστεί απÞ το ΥΠΟΙΚ στισ 31 Οκτωβρίου, το µεσηµέρι. ΑπÞ πλευράσ των κοµµάτων έχουν οριστεί οι Κρισ Τριανταφυλλίδησ εκ µέρουσ του ∆ΗΣΥ, Γιώργοσ Κολοκασίδησ εκ µέρουσ του ∆ΗΚΟ, Τάσοσ Γιασεµίδησ εκ µέρουσ τησ Ε∆ΕΚ, ∆ηµήτρησ Συλλούρησ εκ µέρουσ του ΕΥΡΩΚΟ, Πάρησ Μαυροµµάτησ εκ µέροσ των ΟικολÞγων και Στέλιοσ Αµερικάνοσ εκ µέρουσ τησ Συµµαχίασ Πολιτών.Το ΑΚΕΛ επέλεξε να µην εκπροσωπηθεί.
¶ÚÔ‚ÔÏ‹ Ù˘ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Û ∞˘ÛÙÚ›· Î·È √˘ÁÁ·Ú›· Επιχειρηµατικά φÞρουµ µε στÞχο την προβολή και προώθηση τησ Κύπρου ωσ κέντρο διεθνών επιχειρηµατικών δραστηριοτήτων και παροχήσ υπηρεσιών, πραγµατοποιήθηκαν πρÞσφατα, µε µεγάλη επιτυχία, στη Βιέννη και στη Βουδαπέστη. Τα επιχειρηµατικά φÞρουµ οργανώθηκαν απÞ το Υπουργείο Ενέργειασ, Εµπορίου Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού και το ΚΕΒΕ, στη Βιέννη σε συνεργασία µε το ΑυστριακÞ ΟµοσπονδιακÞ Επιµελητήριο Οικονοµίασ και στη Βουδαπέστη σε συνεργασία µε το ΟυγγρικÞ ΕµπορικÞ και ΒιοµηχανικÞ Επιµελητήριο. Την κύρια οργανωτική ευθύνη και στα δύο επιχειρηµατικά φÞρουµ είχε το ΕµπορικÞ Κέντρο Βιέννησ. Μετά το τέλοσ των φÞρουµ πραγµατοποιήθηκαν συναντήσεισ µεταξύ εκπροσώπων κυπριακών εταιρειών και αντίστοιχων εταιρειών απÞ την Αυστρία και την Ουγγαρία. Στουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ απÞ την Αυστρία και την Ουγγαρία επεξηγήθηκαν τα πλεονεκτήµατα που προσφέρει η Κύπροσ για επενδύσεισ και άλλεσ επιχειρηµατικέσ δραστηριÞτητεσ, ιδιαίτερα στον τοµέα των υπηρεσιών οι οποίεσ αφήνουν προοπτικέσ για µελλοντική συνεργασία.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com
µÚ¿‚¢ÛË Ù˘ Cyta ∂ÏÏ¿‰Ô˜ Ì ÙÔ «Annual Excellency Award Βραβείο «Annual Excellency Award» στην κατηγορία «Synergies» απονεµήθηκε στη Cyta Ελλάδοσ, για τισ συνέργειεσ τισ οποίεσ ανέπτυξε, αξιοποιώντασ υφιστάµενουσ πÞρουσ, µε στÞχο την παροχή τετραπλών υπηρεσιών στην ελληνική αγορά (Σταθερή, Κινητή, ∆ιαδίκτυο και ΤηλεÞραση). Η εταιρεία πέτυχε τη διάκριση στο πλαίσιο του φετινού 16ου ∆ιεθνούσ Συνεδρίου Τηλεπικοινωνιών InfoCom World (www.info-com.gr). Παραλαµβάνοντασ το βραβείο, ο ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ Cyta Ελλάδοσ, κ. Χρίστοσ Λιµνατίτησ, εξέφρασε την ικανοποίησή του, γιατί «η εταιρεία, διαθέτοντασ ένα δίκτυο ολοκληρωτικά νέασ γενιάσ, είναι πανέτοιµη να παίξει το δικÞ τησ ρÞλο στο νέο οικοσύστηµα, Þπου ο σύγχρονοσ «always
on» χρήστησ µπορεί να έχει πρÞσβαση µε σταθερέσ και κινητέσ έξυπνεσ συσκευέσ, µέσω δικτύων νέασ γενιάσ σε υπηρεσίεσ και εφαρµογέσ cloud». Σηµείωσε, µάλιστα, Þτι «η Cyta Ελλάδοσ, αξιοποιώντασ τισ δικέσ τησ υποδοµέσ, αλλά και τισ κατάλληλεσ συνέργειεσ, είναι η µÞνη που παρέχει τετραπλέσ υπηρεσίεσ Σταθερήσ, Κινητήσ, ∆ιαδικτύου και ΤηλεÞρασησ σε ένα λογαριασµÞ». Ολοκληρώνοντασ, ανακοίνωσε το επÞµενο βήµα τησ εταιρείασ, που είναι η επένδυση σε δηµιουργία περισσÞτερων εφαρµογών, προσανατολισµένων στισ σύγχρονεσ ανάγκεσ, Þπωσ είναι η υπηρεσία Cyta 4U, τονίζοντασ Þτι «είναι η µÞνη η οποία δίνει πρÞσβαση στο σταθερÞ τηλέφωνο του πελάτη, απÞ οποιοδήποτε κινητÞ ή tablet, απÞ παντού στον κÞσµο».
∞Ó·‰ÈÔÚÁ¿ÓˆÛË Ù˘ ºÒÙÔ˜ ºˆÙÈ¿‰Ë˜ ¢È·ÓÔÌ›˜ Στην αναβάθµιση τησ οργανωτικήσ τησ δοµήσ σε Κεντρική και Ανατολική Ευρώπη προέβει η εταιρεία Φώτοσ Φωτιάδησ ∆ιανοµείσ. Σε αυτά τα πλαίσια προχώρησε µε τη δηµιουργία των θέσεων του Περιφερειακού ∆ιευθυντή και του ∆ιευθυντή Εταιρικήσ Ανάπτυξησ Κεντρικήσ και Ανατολικήσ Ευρώπησ. Ùπωσ ανακοίνωσε η εταιρεία προχώρησε σε αυτή την αναβάθµιση ανταποκρινÞµενη στισ προκλήσεισ και τισ ευκαιρίεσ που προκύπτουν απÞ την ταχεία ανάπτυξη των δραστηριοτήτων και του κύκλου εργασιών των θυγατρικών εταιρειών τησ PPD Romania, PPD Croatia και PPD Slovenia.
Συγκεκριµένα ο Κωνσταντίνοσ Ευθυµίου, απÞ τη θέση του Γενικού ∆ιευθυντή τησ PPD Croatia και τησ PPD Slovenia αναλαµβάνει νέα καθήκοντα ωσ Region Director CEE (Central and Eastern Europe), ενώ η Barbara Razem, ∆ιευθύντρια Πωλήσεων τησ PPD Slovenia, µε πολύχρονη προηγούµενη εµπειρία σε πολυεθνικέσ εταιρείεσ, αναλαµβάνει τη θέση Organizational Development Manager CEE. Τη θέση του General Manager τησ PPD Croatia αναλαµβάνει η Renata Sobak, ενώ ο Ivan Marin αναλαµβάνει τη θέση του Marketing Director στη PPD Croatia. Τέλοσ, ο Χρίστοσ Καψοκέφαλοσ, αναλαµβάνει καθήκοντα
ωσ General Manager τησ PPD Slovenia. Οι τρεισ θυγατρικέσ τησ Φώτοσ Φωτιάδησ ∆ιανοµείσ, εργοδοτούν σήµερα πέραν των 100 ατÞµων, διανέµοντασ και προωθώντασ τÞσο τα προϊÞντα τησ Diageo, τησ µεγαλύτερησ εταιρείασ ποτών στον κÞσµο, Þσο και σωρεία άλλων διεθνών εταιρειών Þπωσ Gruppo Campari, Ilva Saronno, Jose Cuervo, Nestle Waters, Danone, Henkell και άλλεσ µε αξιοθαύµαστα αποτελέσµατα. Οι PPD Romania και PPD Croatia κατέχουν την πρώτη θέση στην κατηγορία ποιοτικών εισαγÞµενων ποτών στισ αντίστοιχεσ αγορέσ τουσ, ενώ η PPD Slovenia κατάφερε µÞλισ σε δύο χρÞνια να διπλασιάσει τισ πωλήσεισ τησ.
§ÔÁ·ÚÈ·ÛÌÔ› Facebook Î·È Twitter ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋ Στην δηµιουργία των λογαριασµών Hellenic Bank Official και @hellenicbank στα δίκτυα κοινωνικήσ δικτύωσησ Facebook και Twitter αντίστοιχα, προχώρησε ο ÙµιλÞσ τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, στα πλαίσια τησ συνεχούσ αναβάθµισησ και αξιοποίησησ τησ τεχνολογίασ. Η νέα αυτή πρωτοβουλία αποτελεί ένα σύγχρονο τρÞπο επικοινωνίασ, αξιοποιώντασ τισ πλέον διαδεδοµένεσ πλατ-
φÞρµεσ διαδικτυακήσ ενηµέρωσησ. Η σελίδα τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ στο Facebook µπορεί να αναζητηθεί αναγράφοντασ Hellenic Bank Official ή απευθείασ στην ηλεκτρονική διεύθυνση https://www.facebook.com/HellenicBankOfficial Τα άτοµα (followers) στο Twitter µπορούν να ακολουθούν το λογαριασµÞ @hellenicbank ή απευθείασ τη διαδροµή https://twitter.com/HellenicBank Οι πελάτεσ, το ευρύτερο
κοινÞ και επιχειρήσεισ µπορούν να λαµβάνουν καθηµερινή πληροφÞρηση για διάφορεσ δραστηριÞτητεσ, προϊÞντα, εξελίξεισ και οικονοµικέσ πληροφορίεσ για τον Ùµιλο τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ. ΠρÞκειται για µια σειρά πρωτοβουλιών τησ Τράπεζασ µε τισ οποίεσ εισέρχεται δυναµικά στην νέα εποχή τησ προηγµένησ επικοινωνίασ.
ª¤¯ÚÈ 10 ¡ÔÂÌ‚Ú›Ô˘ ÔÈ ÂÈÛËÁ‹ÛÂȘ ÁÈ· ÙÔ˘˜ ηÓfiÓ˜ ÙÔ˘ π¶∂ Εισηγήσεισ τÞσο απÞ µεµονωµένα άτοµα Þσο και απÞ φορείσ, οι οποίεσ θα αξιοποιηθούν για τη διαµÞρφωση των κανÞνων και των διαδικασιών των προγραµµάτων του, δέχεται το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ). Το ΙΠΕ έχει ξεκινήσει τον σχεδιασµÞ τησ ∆ΕΣΜΗΣ προγραµµάτων του για Έρευνα, Τεχνολογική Ανάπτυξη και Καινοτοµία για την περίοδο 2015-2020. Ο σχεδιασµÞσ βασίζεται στη Στρατηγική Έξυπνησ Εξειδίκευσησ για την Κύπρο η οποία αναδεικνύει τισ προτεραιÞτητεσ και τουσ τοµείσ στουσ οποίουσ η Κύπροσ παρουσιάζει ή µπορεί να αναπτύξει συγκριτικά πλεονεκτήµατα. Σε επÞµενο στάδιο, το ΙΠΕ θα διενεργήσει δηµÞσια διαβούλευση µε την ερευνητική και επιχειρηµατική κοινÞτητα τησ Κύπρου για το περιεχÞµενο των επιµέρουσ προγραµµάτων τησ ∆ΕΣΜΗΣ συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των κανÞνων τουσ. Η διαδικασία σχεδιασµού τησ ∆ΕΣΜΗΣ 2015-2020 περιλαµβάνει και τον καθορισµÞ των κανÞνων και διαδικασιών συµµετοχήσ, διαχείρισησ και ελέγχου. ΣκοπÞσ του ΙΠΕ είναι να συλλέξει ιδέεσ και εισηγήσεισ, οι οποίεσ θα αξιοποιηθούν στη διαδικασία και θα χρησιµοποιηθούν στη διαµÞρφωση των κανÞνων και των διαδικασιών των προγραµµάτων του, µε στÞχο οι διαδικασίεσ που ακολουθεί το Ίδρυµα να είναι Þσο το δυνατÞν πιο απλοποιηµένεσ και υποβοηθητικέσ προσ τουσ ερευνητικούσ φορείσ.
Η πρÞσκληση απευθύνεται ιδιαίτερα σε φορείσ και πρÞσωπα που έχουν συµµετάσχει σε έργα του ΙΠΕ και έχουν διαµορφώσει άποψη για την ανάγκη νέων ή τροποποιηµένων κανÞνων και διαδικασιών που µπορεί να αφορούν θέµατα Þπωσ τα δικαιώµατα συµµετοχήσ, η υποβολή προτάσεων, η αξιολÞγηση προτάσεων, η διαπραγµάτευση έργων, η κατάρτιση και διαχείριση προϋπολογισµού, η ετοιµασία εκθέσεων, η αξιολÞγηση έργων, η καταβολή χρηµατοδÞτησησ, η διαχείριση ενστάσεων, η διάχυση αποτελεσµάτων και η διαχείριση και αξιοποίηση διανοητικήσ ιδιοκτησίασ. Παράλληλα, το Ίδρυµα µελετά τον νέο ΚανονισµÞ (ΕΕ) Αριθ. 1303/2013 του Ευρωπαϊκού Κοινοβουλίου και Συµβουλίου (Common Provisions Regulation – CPR), ο οποίοσ θα αποτελέσει τη βάση για τη δηµιουργία του εθνικού πλαισίου διαχείρισησ και ελέγχου που θα υιοθετήσει η Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία για τα προγράµµατα που θα συγχρηµατοδοτη-
θούν απÞ τα Ευρωπαϊκά ∆ιαρθρωτικά και Επενδυτικά Ταµεία (Ε∆ΕΤ) για την περίοδο 2014-2020. Το πλαίσιο αυτÞ θα κληθεί να εφαρµÞσει και το ΙΠΕ για τα προγράµµατά του την συγκεκριµένη περίοδο. Σηµειώνεται Þτι ο ΚανονισµÞσ CPR επιτρέπει καταρχήν την εισαγωγή απλοποιήσεων σε σύγκριση µε το αντίστοιχο πλαίσιο τησ περιÞδου 2007-2013. Οι ιδέεσ και εισηγήσεισ µπορούν να σταλούν µε ηλεκτρονικÞ ταχυδροµείο στη διεύθυνση consultation@research.org.cy έωσ τη ∆ευτέρα 10 Νοεµβρίου 2014. Παρακαλούνται οι αποστολείσ να αναφέρουν αν εκπροσωπούν κάποιον Φορέα. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να απευθύνονται στη ΛειτουργÞ Α’ κα Κάτια Νικολαΐδου στη διεύθυνση knicolaidou@research.org.cy ή να επισκεφθούν την ιστοσελίδα του Ιδρύµατοσ www.research.org.cy . Το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ) αποτελεί τον εθνικÞ φορέα, αρµÞδιο για την υποστήριξη και προώθηση τησ έρευνασ, τησ τεχνολογικήσ ανάπτυξησ και τησ καινοτοµίασ στην Κύπρο. Η υλοποίηση τησ αποστολήσ του επιτυγχάνεται µέσα απÞ το σχεδιασµÞ και τη διαχείριση προγραµµάτων επιχορήγησησ ερευνητικών έργων και καινοτοµικών δραστηριοτήτων, σε συνδυασµÞ µε την υποστήριξη τησ ένταξησ κυπρίων ερευνητών σε ερευνητικέσ δραστηριÞτητεσ στον ευρωπαϊκÞ και διεθνή χώρο.
¶Ï‹Ú˘ ·Ó·Ó¤ˆÛË ÁÈ· ÙÔ lobby Î·È ÙÔ Sana Hiltonia ÙÔ˘ Hilton Park Στην ανανέωση του lobby καθώσ και στην αναβάθµιση του Κέντρου Υγείασ & Οµορφιάσ Sana Hiltonia, προχώρησε το ξενοδοχείο Hilton Park Nicosia στα πλαίσια των ανακαινίσεων που προγραµµατίζει για σκοπούσ περεταίρω αναβάθµισησ των υπηρεσιών που προσφέρει. Ο νέοσ χώροσ υποδοχήσ µε έντονο το στοιχείο του ξύλου και απαλÞ φÞντο µε πινελιέσ απÞ γκραβούρεσ σε αποικιακή κορνίζα καθώσ και το ιδιαίτερου σχεδιασµού στρογγυλÞ τραπέζι πάνω σε patchwork vintage χαλιά που υποδέχεται τουσ επισκέπτεσ, ολοκληρώνουν την νέα εικÞνα του lobby του Hilton Park Nicosia που επιµελήθηκε η Τατιάνα Βιολάρη τησ Grey 3 Designs. Ο καινούργιοσ και πλήρωσ ανακαινισµένοσ χώροσ του Κέντρου Υγείασ & Οµορφιάσ Sana Hiltonia, υπÞσχεται να µυήσει το κοινÞ τησ Λευκωσίασ σ’ ένα εντελώσ διαφορετικÞ
και εξελιγµένο τρÞπο εκγύµνασησ. Τα τελευταίασ τεχνολογίασ µηχανήµατα απÞ τη Lifefitness, οι ολοκαίνουργιεσ αίθουσεσ µε ανανεωµένα και εξειδικευµένα προγράµµατα γυµναστικήσ για Þλουσ και το επαγγελµατικÞ προσωπικÞ του Sana Hiltonia συνθέτουν το πιο σύγχρονο χώρο εκγύµνασησ τησ πρωτεύουσασ. Στισ επιλογέσ του πελάτη προστέθηκε επίσησ και µάλιστα σε αποκλειστικÞτητα, το µοναδικÞ πολυÞργανο SYNERGY. Στο Sana Hiltonia του Hilton Park Nicosia θα λειτουργήσει επίσησ και το θαυµατουργÞ κλιµατολογικÞ δωµάτιο στο οποίο δηµιουργούνται συνθήκεσ Νεκράσ Θάλασσασ, γνωστήσ για τισ θεραπευτικέσ τησ ιδιÞτητεσ. Τέλοσ, τα βραβευµένα προϊÞντα ‘Germaine De Capuccini’ και ‘Dead Sea Premier’ είναι διαθέσιµα τÞσο για θεραπείεσ στο Spa Þσο και για χρήση στο σπίτι.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5
¢‡Ô ·ÓÙ›ıÂÙ˜ ÓÔÔÙÚԛ˜ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘
Ενώ η πÞλη τησ Λάρνακασ έχει Þλη την συµπάθεια µασ, διÞτι ίσωσ και να αποτελεί την πλέον παραµεληµένη πÞλη απÞ πλευράσ στήριξησ του Κράτουσ, εντούτοισ διερωτÞµαστε εάν φταίνε οι ίδιοι οι πολίτεσ τησ Λάρνακασ για την κατάσταση αυτή. Η πÞλη αυτή έχει Þλα τα φÞντα για ανάπτυξη µε την εκτεταµένη τησ παραλία, η µÞνη πÞλη «πάνω στο κύµα», υπάρχει η Λαϊκή Γειτονιά πλησίον τησ παραλίασ και µε ωραία κεντράκια κλπ και αρκετά αξιÞλογα κτίρια. ΑξιÞλογη είναι η προσπάθεια του ∆ήµου και του ευφάνταστου ∆ηµοτικού Γραµµατέα τησ πÞλησ για τα διάφορα έργα ανάπλασησ, ενώ το τελευταίο έργο, η παραλιακή οδÞσ Μακένζυ, είναι ένα πρÞσθετο στολίδι. Και ωσ εδώ καλά και θα θέλαµε προσ στιγµή να συγκρίνουµε δύο εκ διαµέτρου αντίθετεσ νοοτροπίεσ δύο πÞλεων, εκείνη τησ Λάρνακασ και τησ Λεµεσού. - Επίχωση Λεµεσού - Πιέσεισ προερχÞµενεσ απÞ τον ∆ήµο (και τουσ ∆ηµÞτεσ του), κονδύλια εξευρέθηκαν και έγινε η επέκταση τησ επίχωσησ στολίδι. Καµία αρνητική αντίδραση. ΄Εργο ∆ηµητρίου Λάρνακα - ΦανταζÞµαστε Þτι θυµάστε τουσ καυγάδεσ για το έργο ∆ηµητρίου επί τησ παραλίασ που ανέδειξε την τουριστική περιοχή τησ πÞλησ (Φοινικούδεσ), καθιστώντασ την απÞ µÞνο αυτÞ το έργο τουριστική, µε πολυάριθµοσ ντÞπιουσ και ξένουσ επισκέπτεσ. Τελικά το έργο έγινε και µπράβο σε Þλουσ τουσ συντελεστέσ του και κακίζουµε τουσ τÞτε αντιδρούντεσ. - Επιχειρήσεισ καφέ Λεµεσού - Επί του παραλιακού µετώπου δηµιουργήθηκαν διάφορα περίπτερα που µετά µετατράπηκαν σε καφέ και µετά εστιατÞρια. Ùχι, ίσωσ Þτι το νοµιµÞτερο αλλά οι κριτέσ είναι οι επισκέπτεσ που κατακλύζουν τα παραλιακά αυτά «κιÞσκια» Þλεσ τισ ώρεσ τησ ηµέρασ µε ανάλογα εισοδήµατα στα ταµεία του ∆ήµου. ΠρωτοποριακÞ έργο µε οικονοµικά οφέλη. - Επιχειρήσεισ καφέ Λάρνακασ - ∆εν πρÞλαβε ο ∆ήµοσ Λάρνακασ να ανακοινώσει την δηµιουργία 2-3 κιÞσκια στην παραλία και ο έπαρχοσ Λάρνακασ εξέδωσε διάταγµα λÞγω επέµβασησ επί τησ ζώνησ τησ παραλίασ. Κατ’ εµάσ τα κιÞσκια αυτά θα πρÞσθεταν στο Þλο τουριστικÞ σκηνικÞ τησ διασκέδασησ προσ Þφελοσ τησ πÞλησ και εξυπηρέτησησ των λουοµένων.
- Makenzy Beanch (Λάρνακα) - Θα θυµάστε τισ πρÞσφατεσ αντιδράσεισ εναντίον του ∆ήµου Λάρνακασ για την αναβάθµιση του παραλιακού αυτού µετώπου. ΄Εγινε τώρα το έργο που αποτελεί τον κύριο προορισµÞ των λουοµένων, Λευκωσιατών και άλλων. ΄Ανετοι χώροι στάθµευσησ, συγυρισµένη παραλία, κιÞσκια για φθηνά ποτά και τÞσα άλλα. - Παλαιά ΛεµεσÞσ - Κάστρο- ΠρÞσεξε κάποιοσ καµία αντίδραση για την µετατροπή του ιστορικού κάστρου σε κέντρα αναψυχήσ απÞ τουσ Λεµεσιανούσ, παρÞλη την ταλαιπωρία ιδιαίτερα των καταστηµαταρχών; Και Þµωσ ίδε αντιδράσεισ στην Λάρνακα τÞσο για την αναπÞφευκτη ταλαιπωρία του κέντρου για την ανάπλαση Ερµού, Þσο και ακÞµη για το πολυώροφο κτίριο πάρκιγκ που τÞσο το χρειάζεται η Λάρνακα για την περιοχή - στη ΛεµεσÞ υπάρχει ένα αποπερατωµένο και ακÞµη ένα υπÞ µελέτη (ίσωσ και δύο). - Φθάσαµε και στο Λιµάνι/Μαρίνα τησ Λεµεσού και Λάρνακασ. Η µεν Λάρνακα αντιδρά για να γίνει το Λιµάνι βιοµηχανικÞ απÞ διάφορεσ οµάδεσ πίεσησ, ενώ σε αντίθεση ο ∆ήµοσ Λεµεσού άδραξε την ευκαιρία να προσφέρει παρÞµοιουσ χώρουσ στο Λιµάνι Λεµεσού. Τώρα µπήκε στον χορÞ των αντιδράσεων και η Αραδίππου. Και Þµωσ πήρε χαπάρι η Λάρνακα τι ευκαιρίεσ για εργοδÞτηση νέων και πÞσεσ άλλεσ υπηρεσίεσ θα δηµιουργηθούν απÞ αυτήν την χρήση; ΜÞνο η µετακίνηση υπηρεσιών ορισµένων εταιρειών απÞ την ΛεµεσÞ στην Λάρνακα, είχε ωσ αποτέλεσµα (δική µασ εµπειρία) την ενοικίαση διαµερισµάτων Þχι λιγÞτερο απÞ 1.000 ευρώ τον µήνα µέχρι και αυτά επί του παραλιακού µετώπου και άλλεσ µονάδεσ πολυτελείασ τησ τάξησ των 3.000 ευρώ τον µήνα ενοίκιο (ανύπαρκτα κατά τα άλλα τέτοια επίπεδα ενοικίων). Και Þλα αυτά επιπλέον τησ ύπαρξησ µÞνιµου ξένου τουρισµού στην πÞλη, η οποία µαστίζεται απÞ ανεργία ιδιαίτερα εναντίον των νέων. Στο τέλοσ αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ οι εταιρείεσ
θα επιστρέψουν στην ΛεµεσÞ των ενοικίων (για γραφεία) των 15 ευρώ το τ.µ. απÞ τα 8.0 το τ.µ. τησ Λάρνακασ, των ακριβών και κλασάτων εστιατορίων και κέντρων αναψυχήσ στην ΛεµεσÞ, ενώ κατ’ επέκταση δικηγορικά, ελεγκτικά, κτηµατοµεσιτικά και άλλα γραφεία και επιχειρήσεισ θα τα κερδίσουν οι Λεµεσιανοί και τούτο διÞτι φαίνεται να έχουν πιο ευρύ πνεύµα απÞ την Λάρνακα. - Φθάσαµε και στο τελευταίο που ο ∆ήµοσ Λεµεσού οργανώνει τουσ ξένουσ κατοίκουσ, δίδει µετάλλια, ζητά και παίρνει συνεισφορέσ (απÞ τον ζωολογικÞ κήπο µέχρι και τον εξοπλισµÞ τησ επίχωσησ έγινε µε συνεισφορά ξένων κατοίκων και εταιρειών). Ευτυχώσ που βρέθηκε και ένασ ξένοσ επενδυτήσ για την Λάρνακα για να ανεγείρει ξενοδοχείο στισ Φοινικούδεσ, µια επένδυση κατά τον τύπο 80 εκ. ευρώ. Και Þµωσ ορισµένοι Λαρνακείσ δηµοσιογράφοι άρχισαν να έχουν ενδοιασµούσ για το µέγεθοσ του έργου, ανεξάρτητα εάν η Λάρνακα έχει τα γηραιÞτερα ξενοδοχεία και τον λιγÞτερο τουρισµÞ στην Κύπρο και ανεξάρτητα εάν οι πελάτεσ που θα βρίσκονται εντÞσ τησ πÞλησ θα επηρεάσουν άµεσα και θετικά το εµπορικÞ κέντρο τησ πÞλησ. Ενώ η ΛεµεσÞσ λειτουργεί ωσ µια οµάδα και αλίµονο σε εκείνο που εναντιώνεται στα αναπτυξιακά προγράµµατα τησ πÞλησ, η Λάρνακα µαστίζεται απÞ διαφωνίεσ. Σασ λέµε Þτι τÞσο η Μαρίνα τησ Λεµεσού Þσο και το ψαρολίµανο δεν θα γίνονταν εάν δεν υπήρχε αυτή η σύµπνοια του ∆ήµου/∆ηµοτών/επιχειρηµατικών συνδέσµων κλπ. Καλή η προσπάθεια τησ δηµιουργίασ τουριστικού λιµανιού, αλλά αφού δεν υπάρχουν οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι να αφήσουµε το λιµάνι να παραπαίει; Πολύ ορθά το Kράτοσ αποφάσισε Þτι για 3 χρÞνια θα γίνει βιοµηχανικÞ και µετά θα µετακοµίσει να είστε σίγουροι στην ΛεµεσÞ, µε τισ ανάλογεσ αρνητικέσ παρενέργειεσ στην πÞλη τησ Λάρνακασ και ευεργετικέσ για την ΛεµεσÞ. ΑντιλαµβανÞµαστε Þτι για το βιοµηχανικÞ λιµάνι υπάρχουν ενδοιασµοί για την ύπαρξη αρνητικών περιβαλλοντικών επιπτώσεων. ΑπÞ την άλλη υπάρχουν µελέτεσ ειδικών που αναφέρουν Þτι δεν υπάρχει τέτοιο θέµα. Εάν τώρα θα βασιστούµε σε θεωρίεσ του καθενÞσ απÞ εµάσ, τÞτε ούτε βιοµηχανικÞ λιµάνι θα γίνει και ούτε τουριστικÞ. Ο οργανισµÞσ Λούησ Þταν αποφάσισε να «µετακοµίσει» απÞ το λιµάνι Λεµεσού στην Λάρνακα, διατήρησε αυτήν την προσπάθεια για 6 µήνεσ και µετά - και διερωτÞµαστε γιατί - επέστρεψε στην ΛεµεσÞ. Είναι πράγµατι λυπηρÞ διÞτι ενώ η πÞλη τησ Λάρνακασ έχει Þλα τα φÞντα να αναδειχθεί τÞσο τουριστικά Þσο και επιχειρηµατικά, οι ίδιοι οι Λαρνακείσ εργάζονται εναντίον τησ πÞλησ τουσ. Τι κρίµα για τουσ Λαρνακείσ νέουσ ιδιαίτερα.
¡¤· ·Ó·ÛÙÔÏ‹ ÙˆÓ ÌÂÙÔ¯ÒÓ Ù˘ ∆Ú¿Â˙·˜ ∫‡ÚÔ˘ ÛÙÔ Ã∞∫ Την απÞφαση τησ για συνέχιση τησ αναστολήσ διαπραγµάτευσησ των µετοχών τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου (ΧΑΚ), απÞ την 1η Νοεµβρίου του 2014 µέχρι και την ηµεροµηνία εισαγωγήσ Þλων των µετοχών τησ στο ΧΑΚ και στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών (ΧΑ), ανακοίνωσε η Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράσ Κύπρου. Η Επιτροπή Κεφαλαιαγοράσ (ΕΚ), κατέληξε στην απÞφαση αυτή, ώστε να δοθεί χρÞνοσ, βάσει χρονοδιαγράµµατοσ
που έχει δοθεί απÞ την εταιρεία, για τη δηµοσίευση του σχετικού Ενηµερωτικού ∆ελτίου που θα αφορά τη δηµÞσια προσφορά νέων µετοχών και την εισαγωγή Þλων των µετοχών τησ στο ΧΑΚ και ΧΑ, το οποίο θα είναι επικαιροποιηµένο µε Þλα τα πρÞσφατα γεγονÞτα Þπωσ τα αποτελέσµατα των Τεστ Αντοχήσ, καθώσ και για την ολοκλήρωση τησ διαδικασίασ τησ δηµÞσιασ προσφοράσ στουσ µετÞχουσ τησ Εταιρείασ.
Η νέα απÞφαση τησ ΕΚ σε σχέση µε την Τράπεζα Κύπρου είναι αποτέλεσµα του γεγονÞτοσ Þτι στο τέλοσ Οκτωβρίου λήγει το χρονικÞ περιθώριο αναστολήσ διαπραγµάτευσησ των µετοχών τησ Τράπεζασ στο ΧΑΚ, που έδωσε η Επιτροπή µε απÞφαση τησ τον περασµένο Ιούλιο. Η ΕΚ σηµειώνει Þτι θα ζητήσει τη νέα αναστολή τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ των µετοχών τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου στο ΧΑΚ απÞ το Συµβούλιο του Χρηµατιστηρίου Αξιών Κύπρου (ΧΑΚ).
∞Ó·ÛÙ¿ÏËÎÂ Ë ‰È·Ú·ÁÌ¿Ù¢ÛË ÙˆÓ ª∞∫ 1 Ù˘ ∂ÏÏËÓÈ΋˜ Την αναστολή τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ των Μετατρέψιµων ΑξιÞγραφων Κεφαλαίου 1 (ΜΑΚ 1) τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, ανακοίνωσε το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου (ΧΑΚ), µετά την ενεργοποίηση του Μηχανισµού Υποχρεωτικήσ Μετατροπήσ των ΜΑΚ 1 για κάλυψη του κεφαλαιακού ελλείµµατοσ που προκύπτει για την τράπεζα. Το ΧΑΚ µετά απÞ σχετικÞ αίτηµα τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ και σύµφωνα µε το Άρθρο 183 του περί Αξιών και
Χρηµατιστηρίου Αξιών Κύπρου ΝÞµου, “ανακοινώνει την αναστολή τησ διαπραγµάτευσησ των Μετατρέψιµων ΑξιÞγραφων Κεφαλαίου 1 (ΜΑΚ 1) (HBCS1/ΕΤΜΑ1) απÞ, 27 Οκτωβρίου 2014 µέχρι και την Παρασκευή, 7 Νοεµβρίου 2014 (συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ), για οµαλή λειτουργία τησ Αγοράσ και προστασία των επενδυτών”. Η αναστολή, σύµφωνα µε το ΧΑΚ, “κρίνεται ωσ απαραίτητη, µετά την ανάγκη που προέκυψε απÞ την έγκριση των
αποτελεσµάτων του Οµίλου για την περίοδο που έληξε στισ 30 Σεπτεµβρίου 2014 και την κατά συνέπεια ενεργοποίηση του Μηχανισµού Υποχρεωτικήσ Μετατροπήσ των ΜΑΚ 1 για κάλυψη του κεφαλαιακού ελλείµµατοσ που προκύπτει”. Τέλοσ, σηµειώνει Þτι κατά την περίοδο τησ αναστολήσ διαπραγµάτευσησ των ΜΑΚ 1 δεν θα καταρτίζονται συναλλαγέσ εκτÞσ Χρηµατιστηρίου, και συναλλαγέσ του τύπου Over the Counter (OTC).
¡¤· ‰ÚÔÌÔÏfiÁÈ· ·fi Kapnos Airport Shuttle Στην αναπροσαρµογή των δροµολογίων τησ για καλύτερη εξυπηρέτηση του κοινού προέβει η εταιρεία Kapnos Airport Shuttle Ήδη τέθηκαν σε ισχύ νέα δροµολÞγια λεωφορείων που εξυπηρετούν τουσ κατοίκουσ τησ πρωτεύουσασ και τησ Λάρνακασ καθώσ και νέα δροµολÞγια προσ το αεροδρÞµιο Πάφου. Οι ώρεσ των δροµολογίων είναι: ΑπÞ τη Λευκωσία και τη Λάρνακα προσ το αεροδρÞµιο τησ Πάφου: ∆ευτέρα: 3.30, 7.30, 15.30, Τρίτη: 3.30, 8.30, 15.30,
Τετάρτη: 3.30, 15.30, Πέµπτη: 3.30, 8.30, 15.30, Παρασκευή: 3.30, 7.30, 15.30, Σάββατο: 3.30, 8.30, 15.30, Κυριακή: 3.30, 15.30 ΑπÞ το αεροδρÞµιο Πάφου προσ Λευκωσία και Λάρνακα, ωσ ακολούθωσ: ∆ευτέρα: 11.00, 18.45, 23.30, Τρίτη: 11.45, 18.45, 23.30, Τετάρτη: 19.00, 23.30, Πέµπτη: 11.45, 18.45, 23.30, Παρασκευή: 11.00, 18.45, 23.30, Σάββατο: 11.45, 18.45, 23.30, Κυριακή: 19.00, 23.30 H εταιρεία, αφετηρία των λεωφορείων στη Λευκωσία είναι ο ειδικά διαµορφωµένοσ χώροσ στη ΛεωφÞρο
Κυρηνείασ, απέναντι απÞ Πάρκο Κυκλοφοριακήσ Αγωγήσ δίπλα απÞ το Αρχηγείο Αστυνοµίασ. Για οµάδεσ επιβατών πέραν των 5 ατÞµων η µεταφορά απÞ και προσ τον σταθµÞ στη Λευκωσία καθώσ επίσησ απÞ και προσ την αφετηρία στη Λάρνακα είναι δωρεάν, και για παιδιά απÞ 2-12 ετών προσφέρεται ειδική τιµή 5 ευρώ. Για τη χρησιµοποίηση των λεωφορείων, η Kapnos Airport Shuttle προτρέπει το επιβατικÞ κοινÞ να προκρατεί έγκαιρα θέση, µέσω του τηλεφωνικού αριθµού 77771477 η στέλλοντασ email στο info@kapnosairportshuttle.com.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com
∆Ô ÊÏÂÚÙ¿ÚÈÛÌ· Ù˘ ∂˘ÚÒ˘ Ì ÙÔ ¯Ú¤Ô˜ Ο Γάλλοσ πρωθυπουργÞσ Μανουέλ Βαλσ και ο ΙταλÞσ οµÞλογÞσ του, Ματέο Ρέντσι, δήλωσαν -ή τουλάχιστον άφησαν να εννοηθεί- Þτι δεν θα συµµορφωθούν µε το δηµοσιονοµικÞ σύµφωνο στο οποίο προσχώρησαν Þλα τα κράτη µέλη τησ ευρωζώνησ το 2012. Αντ’ αυτού, σκοπεύουν να ξεκινήσουν νέα χρέη. Ùπωσ αναφέρεται σε άρθρο που δηµοσίευσε το «Πρώτο Θέµα»η στάση τουσ αναδεικνύει ένα θεµελιώδεσ ελάττωµα στη δοµή τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Νοµισµατικήσ Ένωσησ το οποίο οι Ευρωπαίοι ηγέτεσ θα πρέπει να αναγνωρίσουν και να αντιµετωπίσουν προτού να είναι πολύ αργά. Το δηµοσιονοµικÞ σύµφωνο που προηγουµένωσ ήταν γνωστÞ ωσ η Συνθήκη για τη ΣταθερÞτητα, τον ΣυντονισµÞ και τη ∆ιακυβέρνηση στην Οικονοµική και Νοµισµατική Ένωση ήταν για τη Γερµανία το «δούναι και λαβείν» προκειµένου να εγκρίνει τον ΕυρωπαϊκÞ ΜηχανισµÞ ΣταθερÞτητασ (ΕΜΣ), ο οποίοσ ήταν ουσιαστικά ένα συλλογικÞ πακέτο διάσωσησ. Το σύµφωνο θέτει ένα αυστηρÞ «ταβάνι» για το διαρθρωτικÞ έλλειµµα του προϋπολογισµού µιασ χώρασ, και προβλέπει Þτι οι δείκτεσ δηµÞσιου χρέουσ άνω του 60% του ΑΕΠ θα πρέπει να µειώνονται σε ετήσια βάση κατά ένα εικοστÞ τησ διαφοράσ µεταξύ του τρέχοντοσ δείκτη και του στÞχου. ΩστÞσο, ο δείκτησ χρέουσ/ΑΕΠ τησ Γαλλίασ θα ανέλθει σε 96% µέχρι το τέλοσ του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ, απÞ 91% το 2012, ενώ τησ Ιταλίασ θα φτάσει το 135%, απÞ το 127% το 2012. Η ουσιαστική αποκήρυξη του δηµοσιονοµικού συµφώνου απÞ τουσ Βαλσ και Ρέντσι, δείχνει Þτι οι δείκτεσ αυτοί θα αυξηθούν ακÞµη περισσÞτερο µέσα στα επÞµενα χρÞνια. Στο πλαίσιο αυτÞ, οι ηγέτεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ καλούνται να ανταποκριθούν στα δύσκολα ερωτήµατα σχετικά µε τη βιωσιµÞτητα του τρέχοντοσ συστήµατοσ για τη διαχείριση του χρέουσ στο πλαίσιο τησ ΟΝΕ. Θα πρέπει να αρχίσουν εξετάζοντασ δύο πιθανά µοντέλα για την διασφάλιση τησ σταθερÞτητασ και τησ βιωσιµÞτητασ του χρέουσ εντÞσ τησ νοµισµατικήσ ένωσησ: το µοντέλο τησ αµοιβαιοποίησησ του χρέουσ και το µοντέλο ευθύνησ (liabilitymodel). Μέχρι στιγµήσ, η Ευρώπη έχει κολλήσει στο µοντέλο τησ αµοιβαιοποίησησ του χρέουσ, σύµφωνα µε το οποίο οι επιµέρουσ οφειλέσ των κρατών ασφαλίζονται απÞ µια κοινή κεντρική τράπεζα ή µέσω δηµοσιονοµικών συστηµάτων διάσωσησ, διασφαλίζοντασ την ασφάλεια για τουσ επενδυτέσ και εξαλείφοντασ σε µεγάλο βαθµÞ τα spreads µεταξύ των χωρών, ανεξάρτητα απÞ το επίπεδο του χρέουσ τουσ. Προκειµένου να αποφευχθεί η τεχνητή µείωση των επιτοκίων εξαιτίασ τησ ενθάρρυνσησ των χωρών για υπερβολικÞ δανεισµÞ, θεσπίζονται επίσησ και πολιτικά «φρένα» χρέουσ.
Στην ευρωζώνη, η αµοιβαιοποίηση πραγµατοποιήθηκε χάρη στισ γενναιÞδωρεσ διασώσεισ του ΕΜΣ και το περίπου 1 τρισ ευρώ του συστήµατοσ TARGET2 σε πιστώσεισ απÞ τα εθνικά πιεστήρια για τισ χώρεσ που έχουν πληγεί απÞ την κρίση. Επιπλέον, η Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα υποσχέθηκε να προστατεύσει αυτέσ τισ χώρεσ απÞ την χρεοκοπία δίχωσ καµία χρέωση, µέσω του προγράµµατοσ «οριστικών νοµισµατικών συναλλαγών» τησ (OMT) δηλαδή, υπÞσχοντασ να αγοράσει το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ τουσ στισ δευτερογενείσ αγορέσ το οποίο λειτουργεί περίπου Þπωσ τα ευρωοµÞλογα. Η υποτιθέµενη σύσφιξη του ανώτατου ορίου του χρέουσ το 2012, ακολούθησε αυτÞ το µοντέλο. Η εναλλακτική λύση το µοντέλο ευθύνησ προϋποθέτει Þτι κάθε κράτοσ αναλαµβάνει την ευθύνη για τισ δικέσ του οφειλέσ, µε τουσ πιστωτέσ να φέρουν το κÞστοσ τησ αθέτησησ. Αντιµέτωποι µε αυτÞν τον κίνδυνο, οι επενδυτέσ απαιτούν υψηλÞτερα επιτÞκια απÞ την αρχή ή αρνούνται να χορηγήσουν πρÞσθετη πίστωση, επιβάλλοντασ κατ’ αυτÞν τον τρÞπο ένα µέτρο πειθαρχίασ στουσ οφειλέτεσ. Το καλύτερο παράδειγµα µοντέλου ευθύνησ είναι αυτÞ των Ηνωµένων Πολιτειών. Ùταν πολιτείεσ των ΗΠΑ Þπωσ η ΚαλιφÞρνια, το ΙλινÞισ ή η ΜινεσÞτα παρουσιάζουν δηµοσιονοµικά προβλήµατα, κανείσ δεν περιµένει απÞ τισ υπÞλοιπεσ πολιτείεσ ή απÞ την οµοσπονδιακή κυβέρνηση να τισ διασώσει, πÞσο µάλλον απÞ την Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα (Fed) να εγγυηθεί ή να αγοράσει τα οµÞλογά τουσ. Πράγµατι, η Fed, σε αντίθεση µε την ΕΚΤ, δεν αγοράζει οµÞλογα απÞ επιµέρουσ πολιτείεσ. Οι επενδυτέσ οφείλουν να φέρουν το κÞστοσ οποιασδήποτε αφερεγγυÞτητασ. Το 1975, η Νέα ΥÞρκη χρειάστηκε να δεσµεύσει τα µελλοντικά τησ φορολογικά έσοδα στουσ πιστωτέσ τησ, προκειµένου να παραµεί-
νει φερέγγυα. Φυσικά, οι ΗΠΑ δεν ήταν πάντα τÞσο αυστηρέσ. Λίγο µετά την ίδρυσή τουσ, δοκίµασαν την αµοιβαιοποίηση του χρέουσ, µε τον AlexanderHamilton, τον πρώτο υπουργÞ Οικονοµικών των ΗΠΑ, περιγράφοντασ το πρÞγραµµα το 1971 ωσ τη «βάση» για τη νέα αµερικανική οµοσπονδία. Ùµωσ, Þπωσ αποδείχθηκε, το µοντέλο τησ αµοιβαιοποίησησ που χρησιµοποιήθηκε ξανά το 1813 κατά τη διάρκεια του δεύτερου πολέµου ενάντια στουσ Βρετανούσ τροφοδÞτησε µία πιστωτική φούσκα η οποία έσκασε το 1837 και οδήγησε σε χρεοκοπία τισ 9 απÞ τισ 29 πολιτείεσ των ΗΠΑ. Το άλυτο πρÞβληµα του χρέουσ επιδείνωσε τισ εντάσεισ σχετικά µε το ζήτηµα τησ δουλείασ, το οποίο προκάλεσε τον Εµφύλιο ΠÞλεµο του 1861. ΑπÞ αυτή την άποψη, Þπωσ σηµειώνει και ο ιστορικÞσ HaroldJames, η αµοιβαιοποίηση αποδείχθηκε «δυναµίτησ» και Þχι η βάση για τη νέα οµοσπονδία. ΜÞνο µετά τον Εµφύλιο ΠÞλεµο αποφάσισαν οι ΗΠΑ να λειτουργήσουν την οµοσπονδία βάσει του µοντέλου ευθύνησ µία προσέγγιση που έχει στηρίξει τη σταθερÞτητα και έχει περιορίσει τα επίπεδα χρέουσ των επιµέρουσ πολιτειών απÞ τÞτε µέχρι και σήµερα. Για τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ ηγέτεσ, η αποχώρηση τησ Γαλλίασ και τησ Ιταλίασ απÞ το δηµοσιονοµικÞ σύµφωνο θα πρέπει να χρησιµεύσει ωσ ξεκάθαρη ένδειξη Þτι το µοντέλο τησ αµοιβαιοποίησησ δεν είναι σωστÞ, ούτε για την ευρωζώνη. Ακολουθώντασ το παράδειγµα τησ Fed, η ΕΚΤ θα πρέπει να καταργήσει το πρÞγραµµα OMT το οποίο, σύµφωνα µε το ΣυνταγµατικÞ ∆ικαστήριο τησ Γερµανίασ, δεν συµµορφώνεται µε το δίκαιο των συνθηκών τησ ΕΕ ούτωσ ή άλλωσ. Επιπλέον, η ΕΚΤ θα πρέπει να επαναφέρει την απαίτηση Þτι τα χρέη του TARGET2 θα πρέπει να αποπληρώνονται µε χρυσÞ, Þπωσ συνέβη και στισ ΗΠΑ πριν απÞ το 1975 για να επανέλθουν οι ισορροπίεσ µεταξύ των περιφερειών του Οµοσπονδιακού Συστήµατοσ. ΚαλÞ θα ήταν ίσωσ, ακÞµη και να επανεξεταστεί το ίδιο το δηµοσιονοµικÞ σύµφωνο. Τέτοιου είδουσ µέτρα, θα χρησίµευαν και ωσ ειδοποίηση προσ τουσ επενδυτέσ Þτι δεν µπορούν να ελπίζουν Þτι θα λυτρωθούν απÞ τα νοµισµατοκοπεία σε καιρούσ κρίσησ, υποχρεώνοντάσ τουσ έτσι να απαιτήσουν υψηλÞτερα επιτÞκια ή αποτρέποντάσ τουσ απÞ το να χορηγούν πιστώσεισ εξαρχήσ. Με τη σειρά του, αυτÞ θα οδηγούσε σε αυξηµένη πειθαρχία ανάµεσα στισ χρεωµένεσ χώρεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ και θα γλίτωνε την Ευρώπη απÞ µια χιονοστιβάδα χρέουσ, η οποία θα µπορούσε τελικά να οδηγήσει τισ σήµερα φερέγγυεσ χώρεσ στη χρεοκοπία και να καταστρέψει το σχέδιο τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ ολοκλήρωσησ.
25 ‰È˜ ÁÈ· 25 ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ ∫ÂʷϷȷΤ˜ ·Ó¿ÁΘ €2 Είκοσι πέντε τράπεζεσ τησ ευρωζώνησ απέτυχαν να περάσουν τισ εξετάσεισ που σχεδιάστηκαν για να ελέγξουν τη ικανÞτητα των τραπεζικών ιδρυµάτων να αντιµετωπίσουν µια νέα οικονοµική κρίση. Οι συγκεκριµένεσ τράπεζεσ δεν κατÞρθωσαν να πιάσουν το µίνιµουµ των κεφαλαίων και υπολείπονται κατά 25 δισ ευρώ σύµφωνα µε την ΕΚΤ. Η ΕΚΤ διαπίστωσε, επίσησ, Þτι οι τράπεζεσ είναι εκτεθειµένεσ σε µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια επιπλέον ύψουσ 136 δισ ευρώ. Ο αριθµÞσ των τραπεζών που απέτυχαν και τα συνολικά κεφάλαια που υπολείπονται είναι ελαφρά αυξηµένοσ σε σχέση µε τισ προβλέψεισ αναλυτών και επενδυτών, για τα αποτελέσµατα των ευρωπαϊκών stress tests, στα οποία υποβλήθηκαν 130 απÞ τισ µεγαλύτερεσ τράπεζεσ τησ Ευρώπησ. Η ΕΚΤ αναφέρει Þτι οι τράπεζεσ που απέτυχαν εντÞσ τησ χρονιάσ που διανύουµε έχουν λάβει µέτρα για να αυξήσουν τα αποθεµατικά τουσ. Ήδη 12 απÞ αυτέσ τισ τράπεζεσ έχουν καλύψει τα εν
λÞγω ελλείµµατα, συγκεντρώνοντασ συνολικά 15 δισ ευρώ. Ùµωσ σύµφωνα µε την European Banking Authority, θα χρειαστούν τουλάχιστον άλλα 10 δισ ευρώ. Καµία απÞ τισ µεγάλεσ ευρωπαϊκέσ τράπεζεσ δεν απέτυχε στα test. Οι αποτυχίεσ επικεντρώνονται κυρίωσ στην Ιταλία- µε εννιά τράπεζεσ να κÞβονται. Ανάµεσα στισ αποτυχούσεσ, βρίσκεται η Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, η τρίτη σε µέγεθοσ ιταλική τράπεζα. Μαζί µε τισ Banca Carige, Banca Popolare di Milano SCARL και Banca Popolare di Vicenza παρουσιάζουν αθροιστικÞ κεφαλαιακÞ έλλειµµα 3,3 δισ ευρώ. Οι υπÞλοιπεσ πέντε τράπεζεσ απÞ τισ εννιά έχουν ήδη λάβει µέτρα κάλυψησ των αναγκών τουσ. Η Standard & Poor΄s σε έκθεση τησ για τον τραπεζικÞ κλάδο, σηµειώνει Þτι τα τελευταία stress test αποκάλυψαν αδυναµίεσ και στισ τράπεζεσ που πέρασαν την αξιολÞγηση. Οι αναλυτέσ απÞ τη Citi παρατήρησαν Þτι η αξιολÞγηση για την ποιÞτητα του ενεργητικού είναι σηµαντική «απÞ την άποψη πιθανών µελλοντικών κανονιστικών περιορισµών».
ΑπÞ την άλλη, υπάρχουν και εκείνοι οι αναλυτέσ που εστίασαν στο θετικÞ τησ υπÞθεσησ: «Μασ εξέπληξε θετικά η σοβαρÞτητα του ελέγχου τησ ποιÞτητασ του ενεργητικού», δήλωσε ο αναλυτήσ Roberto Henriques τησ JPMorgan.
∫¤ÓÙÚÔ ∆Ú·Â˙È΋˜ ŒÓˆÛ˘ ·fi ÙËÓ Deloitte ÛÙË ºÚ·ÓÎÊÔ‡ÚÙË Στην λειτουργία Κέντρου για την Τραπεζική Ένωση στη Φρανκφούρτη (BUCF), ένα πανευρωπαϊκÞ κέντρο-πηγή πληροφÞρησησ, µε στÞχο την ικανοποίηση των αναγκών και απαιτήσεων των πελατών τησ, προχώρησε η Deloitte. Σύµφωνα µε την Deloitte η πρωτοβουλία για την Τραπεζική Ένωση είναι το πιο φιλÞδοξο εγχείρηµα τησ ευρωπαϊκήσ ολοκλήρωσησ απÞ τη δηµιουργία του ευρώ. ΠρÞκειται για µία θεµελιώδη αναδιάρθρωση τησ εποπτείασ του χρηµατοπιστωτικού τοµέα, και αποτελεί απαραίτητο συµπλήρωµα τησ νοµισµατικήσ ένωσησ. Το έργο αυτÞ θα έχει σηµαντικέσ επιπτώσεισ για την ευρωπαϊκή ολοκλήρωση και την δοµή του τραπεζικού τοµέα. Σε αυτÞ το πλαίσιο, το νέο Þργανο προληπτικήσ εποπτείασ, ο επονοµαζÞµενοσ Ενιαίοσ ΕποπτικÞσ ΜηχανισµÞσ (SSM), υπÞ την ηγεσία τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ
(ΕΚΤ) και µε έδρα τη Φρανκφούρτη, θα διαδραµατίσει σηµαντικÞ ρÞλο στο µετασχηµατισµÞ του κλάδου των χρηµατοπιστωτικών υπηρεσιών στην Ευρώπη. Αυτέσ οι αλλαγέσ θα έχουν µεγάλο αντίκτυπο στισ τράπεζεσ τησ Ευρωζώνησ, και Þχι µÞνο, επηρεάζοντασ τα επιχειρηµατικά µοντέλα των τραπεζών και τισ στρατηγικέσ τουσ. ΥπÞ το πρίσµα τησ Τραπεζικήσ Ένωσησ, το BUCF θα είναι υπεύθυνο για: - Τον έγκαιρο εντοπισµÞ των προκλήσεων µε τισ οποίεσ έρχονται αντιµέτωπεσ οι τράπεζεσ στο πεδίο εφαρµογήσ του Ενιαίου Εποπτικού Μηχανισµού και την εξασφάλιση άµεσησ υποστήριξησ στην διοίκησή τουσ. - Να δράσει ωσ καταλύτησ για την οµαδοποίηση των δεξιοτήτων τησ Deloitte σε Þλη την περιοχή του SSM. Το Κέντρο θα παρέχει ένα ενιαίο σηµείο επαφήσ για τη διασυ-
νοριακή υποστήριξη που Þλο και περισσÞτερο απαιτούν οι πελάτεσ µασ που δραστηριοποιούνται διεθνώσ. - Να παρέχει αναλύσεισ, γνώµεσ εµπειρογνωµÞνων και εκθέσεισ απÞ τα εξειδικευµένα στελέχη τησ Deloitte για την αντιµετώπιση των προκλήσεων που αντιµετωπίζουν οι βασικοί φορείσ λήψησ αποφάσεων του χρηµατοπιστωτικού κλάδου. - Την υποστήριξη και την επέκταση των υφιστάµενων ισχυρών σχέσεων τησ Deloitte µε την ΕΚΤ/SSM και των εθνικών εποπτικών αρχών. Για τη δηµιουργία αυτού του κέντρου, η Deloitte έχει συγκροτήσει µια διεπιστηµονική οµάδα έµπειρων εξειδικευµένων στελεχών και εµπειρογνωµÞνων στον τοµέα των χρηµατοπιστωτικών υπηρεσιών απÞ τα γραφεία τησ σε Þλη των Ευρώπη.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
financialmirror.com | ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7
√ ™Àƒπ∑∞ Á·‚Á›˙ÂÈ ·ÏÏ¿ ‰ÂÓ ‰·ÁÎÒÓÂÈ Με µία πρώτη µατιά, προκαλεί προβληµατισµÞ Þτι η Ελλάδα βιάζεται να βγει απÞ το πρÞγραµµα στήριξησ τησ ΕΕ και του ∆ιεθνούσ Νοµισµατικού Ταµείου. Η απÞδοση των 10ετών οµολÞγων τησ Ελλάδασ εκτινάχθηκε πάνω απÞ το 9% πριν δύο εβδοµάδεσ. H Financial Times πάντωσ σε άρθρο τουσ για την Ελλάδα υπογραµµίζουυν πωσ δεν ακÞµη βέβαιο εάν το δάγκωµα του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ θα είναι τÞσο δυνατÞ Þσο τα γαβγίσµατά του, απÞ την στιγµή που θα αναλάβει την εξουσία. ΑκÞµη και στο 7%, το επιτÞκιο τησ αγοράσ είναι πολύ υψηλÞτερο απÞ αυτÞ µε το οποίο δανείζεται η Αθήνα απÞ τουσ επίσηµουσ πιστωτέσ. Η Ελλάδα κινδυνεύει να παραπατήσει Þπωσ ο σπρίντερ στο τελευταίο εµπÞδιο, επειδή θέλει να νικήσει το χρονÞµετρο. Για τον πρωθυπουργÞ Αντώνη Σαµαρά και τουσ συναδέλφουσ του ωστÞσο, αυτÞ δεν είναι πρωτίστωσ οικονοµικÞ θέµα. Αφορά την εθνική αξιοπρέπεια και περιλαµβάνει πολιτικούσ υπολογισµούσ. – Þπωσ θα έπρεπε να περιµένει κανείσ σε µία δηµοκρατία. Η λαχτάρα για ανάκτηση τησ εθνικήσ αξιοπρέπειασ διαποτίζει την ελληνική στάση στο µνηµÞνιο. Το κοινωνικÞ και οικονοµικÞ κÞστοσ τησ διάσωσησ, απÞ τη µαζική ανεργία µέχρι το κλείσιµο επιχειρήσεων, ήταν τιµωρητικά υψηλÞ. Το πρÞγραµµα στήριξησ θυµίζει στουσ Έλληνεσ πωσ οι µεγάλεσ δυνάµεισ συχνά ασκούσαν τον έλεγχο στη χώρα τουσ, απÞ την επανάσταση του 1821 ενάντια στην Οθωµανική κυριαρχία. Για τουσ µεγαλύτερουσ σε ηλικία Έλληνεσ, η κατοχή των Ναζί την περίοδο 1941-44 καθώσ και η επιρροή Βρετανίασ και ΗΠΑ στη µεταπολεµική Ελλάδα είναι ακÞµη µνήµεσ ζωντανέσ. Το αίτηµα για αυτοδιάθεση είναι κεντρικήσ σηµασίασ για την ελληνική ταυτÞτητα. Βάσει των πολιτικών υπολογισµών, εάν
απελευθερωθεί η Ελλάδα απÞ τον έλεγχο του ∆ΝΤ και τησ ΕΕ, η κυβέρνηση θα κερδίσει την κοινοβουλευτική ψηφοφορία το Φεβρουάριο και θα εκλέξει νέο πρÞεδρο. Έτσι θα µπορέσει να ολοκληρώσει την τετραετή τησ θητεία και να πολεµήσει απÞ θέση ισχύοσ για τισ επÞµενεσ εκλογέσ τον Ιούνιο του 2016. Το πρÞβληµα είναι πωσ ο κυβερνητικÞσ συνασπισµÞσ ελέγχει µÞλισ 154 έδρεσ στο κοινοβούλιο των 300 εδρών. Βάσει του Συντάγµατοσ, χρειάζεται 180 έδρεσ για να εκλέξει πρÞεδρο. Εάν η κυβέρνηση δεν τα καταφέρει, τÞτε θα προκηρυχθούν πρÞωρεσ εκλογέσ. ∆εν είναι αυτÞ που θέλει ο κ. Σαµαράσ, αλλά εκτιµά πωσ το συντηρητικÞ κÞµµα τησ Νέασ ∆ηµοκρατίασ µπορεί να έχει καλή απÞδοση εάν οι ψηφοφÞροι γνωρίζουν Þτι πέτυχε την πρÞωρη έξοδο τησ Ελλάδασ απÞ το µνηµÞ-
νιο. Οι τελευταίεσ δηµοσκοπήσεισ δείχνουν Þτι σε περίπτωση πρÞωρων εκλογών νικητήσ θα είναι ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, το αντιπολιτευτικÞ κÞµµα τησ άκρασ αριστεράσ που βλέπει εχθρικά τα µέτρα λιτÞτητα και τησ οικονοµικέσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ που θέσπισε η κυβέρνηση Σαµαρά. ∆εν ακÞµη βέβαιο εάν το δάγκωµα του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ θα είναι τÞσο δυνατÞ Þσο τα γαβγίσµατά του, απÞ την στιγµή που θα αναλάβει την εξουσία. Είναι απίθανο οι πρÞωρεσ εκλογέσ να του δώσουν απÞλυτη αυτοδυναµία. Αδιαµφισβήτητα, οι πιέσεισ απÞ τουσ κυβερνητικούσ εταίρουσ και τισ αγορέσ θα ωθήσουν τον κ. Αλέξη Τσίπρα προσ την κατεύθυνση µίασ συνεννÞησησ µε τουσ πιστωτέσ τησ Ελλάδασ. Εάν γίνει έτσι, τÞτε ακÞµη και µε κυβέρνηση ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, η Ελλάδα δεν θα βιώσει ούτε δηµοσιονοµική ασωτία
ούτε ατέρµονη λιτÞτητα, αλλά πολιτική που θα καθοδηγείται, σε κάποιο βαθµÞ, απÞ µία αίσθηση οικονοµικήσ ευθύνησ. Ο κ. Τσίπρασ δήλωνε πάντα Þτι θέλει να παραµείνει η Ελλάδα στην ευρωζώνηστάση που θέτει αυτÞµατα περιορισµούσ σε ένα καθαρÞαιµο αριστερÞ πρÞγραµµα. Για τον κ. Σαµαρά ωστÞσο, ενδεχÞµενη εκλογική νίκη του Σύριζα σηµαίνει Þτι διακυβεύονται Þλα Þσα πάλευε να πετύχει η κυβέρνησή του στο Þνοµα τησ αποκατάστασησ του καλού ονÞµατοσ τησ Ελλάδασ στο εξωτερικÞ. Στο τέλοσ, αυτÞ που έχει σηµασία για την Ελλάδα δεν είναι εάν θα παραµείνει στην κυβέρνηση ο κ. Σαµαράσ ή εάν θα τον αντικαταστήσει ο κ. Τσίπρασ. Είναι το εάν η πενταετία κακουχιών και υποταγήσ στην τρÞικα οδήγησαν στον εκσυγχρονισµÞ τησ πολιτικήσ κουλτούρασ και τησ στάσησ του κÞσµου προσ το κράτοσ. Η κρίση επέφερε πλήγµα στο σύστηµα των πελατειακών σχέσεων, των δωροδοκιών και του πλουτισµού που απέκτησε νέα ζωή στην Ελλάδα απÞ τισ αρχέσ τησ δεκαετίασ του 1980 υπÞ το ΠΑΣΟΚ και τη Νέα ∆ηµοκρατία. ∆εν έχει Þµωσ, νÞηµα να αρνείται κανείσ Þτι η διαφθορά στο δηµÞσιο τοµέα και οι πελατειακέσ σχέσεισ παραµένουν. Εν τω µεταξύ, στον ιδιωτικÞ τοµέα, οι πλούσιοι Έλληνεσ δεν έκαναν καµία θυσία για να βοηθήσουν το έθνοσ τουσ σε αυτή την στιγµή ανάγκησ, διαβεβαιώνοντασ Þτι η κρίση θα έπληττε αντιθέτωσ τισ µεσαίεσ τάξεισ και τουσ φτωχούσ. Οι πελατειακέσ σχέσεισ και ο εγωισµÞσ των πλουσίων επεβίωσαν Þλα τα δεινά του 20ου αιώνα – δύο παγκÞσµιουσ πολέµουσ, ξένη κατοχή, εµφύλιο πÞλεµο και χούντα. Μην απορείτε εάν επιβιώσουν και την τρÞικα, αφού φύγουν οι τελευταίοι ξένοι ηγεµÞνεσ τησ χώρασ.
Stress tests: «K·ı·Ú¤˜» ÔÈ ÂÏÏËÓÈΤ˜ ÙÚ¿Â˙˜ ΦιλÞδοξα σχέδια για έξοδο απÞ το µνηµÞνιο µε αξιοποίηση του «κουµπαρά» του Ταµείου Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ καταστρώνει η ελληνική κυβέρνηση στον απÞηχο των τεστ αντοχήσ, που έβγαλαν «καθαρέσ» τισ ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ. Με βάση τα τεστ οι τράπεζεσ Alpha και Πειραιώσ εµφανίζουν την καλύτερη επίδοση. Η Alpha Bank είναι η µÞνη ελληνική τράπεζα που δεν εµφανίζει κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ µε βάση την εικÞνα του 2013 ενώ και η Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ δεν εµφανίζει κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ αν συνυπολογιστεί η αύξηση κεφαλαίου που πραγµατοποίησε την περασµένη άνοιξη. Κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ προκύπτουν για την Eurobank (1,76 δισ ευρώ) και την Εθνική (930 εκ. ευρώ), ωστÞσο, Þπωσ διευκρινίζει η ΕΚΤ µε τον συνυπολογισµÞ των σχεδίων αναδιάρθρωσησ, των πρÞσφατων οικονοµικών αποτελεσµάτων και άλλων ενεργειών που έχουν πραγµατοποιήσει οι διοικήσεισ των δυο τραπεζών, τÞτε οι κεφαλαιακέσ ανάγκεσ εξαλείφονται. Συγκεκριµένα οι ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ Þχι µÞνο δεν χρειάζονται κεφάλαια αλλά µε βάση το δυναµικÞ µοντέλο εµφανίζουν υπερεπέρκεια κεφαλαίων. Συγκεκριµένα µε το δυναµικÞ µοντέλο, που εν πολλοίσ περιλαµβάνει τα σχέδια αναδιάρθρωσησ των τραπεζών που έχουν εγκριθεί απÞ την ΚοµισιÞν, ο δείκτησ κεφαλαιακήσ επάρκειασ, µε βάση το δυσµενέσ σενάριο διαµορφώνεται στο 8,9% για την Alpha Bank, στο 8,5% για την Εθνική Τράπεζα, στο 6,7% για την Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ και στο 5,5% για την Eurobank. Σηµειώνεται Þτι µια τράπεζα πρέπει να διαθέτει δείκτη 5,5% και άνω για να περάσει µε επιτυχία την άσκηση. ΩστÞσο το µεγάλο ερώτηµα σε σχέση µε τουσ ευρωπαϊκούσ ελέγχουσ ήταν αν τα αποτελέσµατά τουσ θα επιβάλουν στισ ελληνικέσ τράπεζεσ να προσφύγουν στην αγορά για νέα κεφάλαια, ή ακÞµη και να ζητήσουν νέεσ ενισχύσεισ απÞ το Ταµείο Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ. Η απάντηση και στα δύο ερωτήµατα είναι αρνητική: έχοντασ αντλήσει πάνω απÞ 34 δισ ευρώ την τελευταία διετία, οι τράπεζεσ αποδείχθηκαν ανθεκτικέσ στον έλεγχο, έστω και αν ήταν µÞνο η Alpha Bank που πέρασε καθαρά τον «πήχη», µε βάση τα στοιχεία ισολογισµού του 2013. Η ελληνική κυβέρνηση υποδέχθηκε µε θριαµβευτικέσ δηλώσεισ του πρωθυπουργού, Α. Σαµαρά και του αντιπροέ-
δρου, Β. Βενιζέλου, τα αποτελέσµατα τησ άσκησησ, ενώ ο ΥπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Γκ. Χαρδούβελησ υπογράµµισε Þτι είναι ιδιαίτερα σηµαντικÞ πωσ δεν θα χρειασθεί να αξιοποιηθούν τα κεφάλαια του ΤΧΣ. Ο κ. Βενιζέλοσ συνέδεσε ευθέωσ, στη δήλωσή του, τα αποτελέσµατα των ελέγχων µε τη στρατηγική τησ κυβέρνησησ για την έξοδο απÞ το µνηµÞνιο. ΤÞνισε Þτι «µένει αλώβητο το αποθεµατικÞ του ΤΧΣ» και Þτι «µπορούν εύκολα να υπάρξουν πρÞσθετεσ εγγυήσεισ για την κάλυψη των χρηµατοδοτικών αναγκών τησ χώρασ. Ανάγκεσ που είναι αισθητά µικρÞτερεσ απÞ Þ,τι νοµίζεται και εγγυήσεισ που δεν είναι ούτε νέο δάνειο ούτε νέο µνηµÞνιο, αλλά αξιοποίηση των υφιστάµενων ευρωπαϊκών µηχανισµών». Το κυβερνητικÞ σχέδιο προβλέπει Þτι τα 11,4 δισ ευρώ του ΤΧΣ θα ζητηθεί να χρησιµοποιηθούν σαν χρηµατοδοτικÞ «µαξιλάρι» για το 2015, ώστε να καλυφθούν οι ανάγκεσ τησ χώρασ απÞ τισ αγορέσ µε ασφάλεια, χωρίσ να χρειασθεί έγκριση νέου δανείου ή προληπτικήσ πιστωτικήσ γραµµήσ. Στα 11,4 δισ. η κυβέρνηση αθροίζει και τα 3,7 δισ ευρώ που εκκρεµούν απÞ επιστροφέσ κερδών των ευρωπαϊκών κεντρικών τραπεζών, ώστε να διαµορφωθεί ένα «πακέτο» τησ τάξεωσ των 15 δισ. ευρώ, επαρκέσ για να προστατευθεί η χώρα απÞ «ατυχήµατα» στην αγορά οµολÞγων.
Ÿ¯È ÛÂ Ó¤Ô ‰¿ÓÂÈÔ ∆εδοµένου Þτι, µε βάση το παραπάνω σενάριο, η Ελλάδα δεν θα ζητήσει πρÞσθετο δάνειο, αλλά µÞνο την αλλαγή χρήσησ ήδη εγκεκριµένων πιστώσεων, η κυβέρνηση ελπίζει Þτι θα αποφύγει το αυστηρÞ καθεστώσ εποπτείασ, που προβλέπεται για τη χρήση τησ προληπτικήσ γραµµήσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ του Ευρωπαϊκού Μηχανισµού ΣταθερÞτητασ (σύναψη µνηµονίου µε εποπτεία απÞ ΚοµισιÞν και ΕΚΤ, σε συνεργασία µε το ∆ΝΤ). ΑυτÞσ ήταν, άλλωστε, ο σχεδιασµÞσ που είχε εκπονηθεί εξαρχήσ απÞ τον Γιάννη Στουρνάρα. Ùµωσ, υπάρχουν αρκετά εµπÞδια πριν φθάσει η κυβέρνηση στην επιβεβαίωση των σχεδιασµών τησ και απÞ τουσ διεθνείσ δανειστέσ. Κατ’ αρχάσ, τυπικά, τα κεφάλαια του ΤΧΣ δεν ανήκουν στην κυβέρνηση: είναι µια χρηµατοδÞτηση που έχει εγκριθεί για άλλο σκοπÞ (για τισ τράπεζεσ) και, εφÞσον έµεινε
στα αζήτητα, πρέπει να επιστραφεί στον ΕΜΣ. Συνεπώσ, απÞ αυστηρά τυπική άποψη η κυβέρνηση θα κληθεί να υποβάλει αίτηµα για χρηµατοδÞτηση απÞ τον ΕΜΣ και είναι θέµα ερµηνείασ απÞ τουσ υπουργούσ Οικονοµικών αν αυτÞ είναι ένα νέο αίτηµα για χρηµατοδÞτηση, που θα πρέπει να εξετασθεί εξαρχήσ και µε βάση το αυστηρÞ καταστατικÞ του ΕΜΣ, ή αν πρÞκειται για ένα αίτηµα αλλαγήσ χρήσησ ήδη εγκεκριµένου δανείου, ώστε να παρακαµφθεί το καταστατικÞ.Επί τησ ουσίασ, Þµωσ, η απάντηση των διεθνών δανειστών στο αίτηµα τησ Ελλάδασ θα εξαρτηθεί απÞ το αν θα κρίνουν Þτι η χώρα θα είναι σε θέση να «σταθεί στα πÞδια τησ» µε ένα µικρÞ δάνειο και «χαλαρή» επιτήρηση, ή αν υπάρχει σοβαρÞσ κίνδυνοσ να αποκλεισθεί και πάλι απÞ τισ αγορέσ, προκαλώντασ νέα αναταραχή στην ευρωζώνη. Σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ, το ∆ΝΤ και η ΕΚΤ, δηλαδή οι δύο βασικοί παράγοντεσ τησ τρÞικασ που έχουν βαρύνουσα άποψη για τη θέση τησ Ελλάδασ στισ αγορέσ µετά το µνηµÞνιο, θεωρούν Þτι τα 15 δισ. ευρώ είναι ένα πολύ µικρÞ «µαξιλάρι», δεδοµένου Þτι η Ελλάδα θα χρειασθεί 18 δισ. το 2015 και 8 δισ. το 2016. Επιπλέον, εκτιµούν Þτι η αγορά οµολÞγων δεν θα πεισθεί να δανείσει την Ελλάδα µε ανεκτÞ κÞστοσ χωρίσ ένα αυστηρÞ σύστηµα διεθνούσ επιτήρησησ. Πολλά θα εξαρτηθούν, πάντωσ, απÞ τη στάση τησ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ στην προσεχή αξιολÞγηση απÞ την τρÞικα.
ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ
29 ΟΚΤΩΒΡΙΟΥ, 2014
8 | ΑΓΟΡΑ | financialmirror.com
E‚‰ÔÌ¿‰· ™ÔÎÔÏ¿Ù·˜ ÁÈ· 10Ë ¯ÚÔÓÈ¿ ÛÙÔ Colors Café Μια µοναδική συλλογή εκπληκτικών σοκολατοδηµιουργιών και νέων λαχταριστών εκπλήξεων, επιφυλάσσει και φέτοσ η «Εβδοµάδα Σοκολάτασ», που διοργανώνει για δέκατη συνεχή χρονιά το Colors Café του Ξενοδοχείου Four Seasons, απÞ τισ 14 µέχρι τισ 23 Νοεµβρίου 2014. Οι λάτρεισ τησ σοκολάτασ, θα έχουν την ευκαιρία να δοκιµάσουν αρµονικούσ γευστικούσ συνδυασµούσ και πρωτÞτυπουσ σοκολατένιουσ πειρασµούσ, που ο Pastry Chef του Colors Café και η οµάδα του ετοιµάζουν ειδικά για την «Εβδοµάδα Σοκολάτασ». Φέτοσ επέλεξαν να χρησιµοποιήσουν τη σοκολάτα Boa Sentenca, ένα µοναδικÞ βραζιλιάνικο µείγµα σοκολάτασ, που δηµιουργήθηκε αποκλειστικά για το Chocolate Ambassadors Club, του οποίου το Ξενοδοχείο Four Seasons είναι υπερήφανο µέλοσ. Η σοκολάτα Boa Sentenca, µε δυνατή γεύση κακάο και πλούσιεσ αρωµατικέσ νÞτεσ εσπεριδοειδών, δηµιουργεί µια ακαταµάχητη ελκυστική υπεροχή, που σίγουρα θα ικανοποιήσει ακÞµα και τουσ πιο απαιτητικούσ ουρανίσκουσ. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ επικοινωνήστε στο τηλέφωνο 25858000.
K·Ù¿ÛÙËÌ· CINABBON ÂÓÙfi˜ ÙÔ˘ ∞§º∞ª∂°∞ ŒÁΈÌ˘ Οι υπεραγορέσ ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ εµπλουτίζουν την καθηµερινή εµπειρία ψωνίσµατοσ των καταναλωτών στην υπεραγορά τουσ στην Έγκωµη µε το νέο κατάστηµα CINABBON! Οι επισκέπτεσ τησ υπεραγοράσ ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ µπορούν να απολαύσουν στα CINABBON µεγάλη ποικιλία ρολών κανέλασ και Cupcakes, τη γνωστή Ινδονησιακή κανέλα Makara και άλλουσ πολλούσ γλυκούσ πειρασµούσ που προσφέρουν γευστική εµπειρία. Ο κ. Γιώργοσ ΘεοδÞτου, Marketing Manager των υπεραγορών ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ δήλωσε σχετικά: «Οι υπεραγορέσ ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ φροντίζουν πάντα να προσφέρουν ολοκληρωµένη εµπειρία ψωνίσµατοσ. Τα ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ Έγκωµησ ενισχύουν τισ γευστικέσ επιλογέσ των καταναλωτών µε το ολοκαίνουριο κατάστηµα CINABBON». Οι Υπεραγορέσ ΑΛΦΑΜΕΓΑ είναι η µεγαλύτερη κυπριακή και ταχύτερα αναπτυσσÞµενη αλυσίδα υπεραγορών στη χώρα µε 10 καταστήµατα και 1200 εργαζÞµενουσ. Οι Υπεραγορέσ έχουν πιστοποιηθεί και µε το διεθνέσ πρÞτυπο Investors In People, το µοναδικÞ διεθνώσ αναγνωριζÞµενο πρÞτυπο ποιÞτητασ στον τοµέα τησ διαχείρισησ και ανάπτυξησ Ανθρώπινου ∆υναµικού.
∆Ô Disaronno ÊÔÚ¿ÂÈ Versace Τα φετινά Χριστούγεννα, το παγκοσµίου φήµησ ΙταλικÞ λικέρ Disaronno Amaretto αποκτά µια νέα εντυπωσιακή εµφάνιση. Ο οίκοσ µÞδασ Versace έχει ντύσει µε τα γνωστά µοτίβα του, το διάσηµο τετράγωνο µπουκάλι. ΑναφερÞµενοσ στισ δυο συνεργασίεσ (Moschino 2013 και Versace 2014), ο κύριοσ Augusto Reina, CEO τησ εταιρίασ ILLVA Saronno εκφράζει την µεγάλη του εκτίµηση και τιµή που συνεργάστηκε µε αυτούσ τουσ οίκουσ µÞδασ για να στηρίξει το φιλανθρωπικÞ έργο «Fashion 4 Development» που επιχορηγείται και απÞ τα Ηνωµένα Έθνη. Το Disaronno Amaretto Versace edition που εισάγεται και διανέµεται στην Κύπρο απÞ την εταιρεία ΚΕΟ, κυκλοφορεί σε πολύ περιορισµένο αριθµÞ φιαλών σε υπεραγορέσ και κάβεσ. Ένα ξεχωριστÞ δώρο για Þλουσ τουσ λάτρεισ τησ µÞδασ.
Η Toyota Motor Corporation ανακοίνωσε Þτι οι συνολικέσ παγκÞσµιεσ πωλήσεισ υβριδικών οχηµάτων Toyota, έχουν ξεπεράσει το Þριο των 7 εκατοµµυρίων στισ 30 Σεπτεµβρίου, φθάνοντασ 7.053.000 µονάδεσ*. Ένασ απÞ τουσ πρωταρχικούσ στÞχουσ τησ Toyota είναι η µείωση των περιβαλλοντικών επιπτώσεων των αυτοκινήτων που κατασκευάζει Αυτή την στιγµή η Toyota εµπορεύεται 27 διαφορετικά επιβατικά υβριδικά µοντέλα και ένα επαναφορτιζÞµενο (plug-in) υβριδικÞ µοντέλο σε περισσÞτερεσ απÞ 90 χώρεσ. Επίσησ απÞ την αρχή του 2014 µέχρι το τέλοσ του 2015, η Toyota σχεδιάζει να παρουσιάσει 15 νέα υβριδικά µοντέλα συµπεριλαµβανοµένων των “Voxy Hybrid” και “Noah Hybrid” (µÞνο στην Ιαπωνία), το ολÞτελα νέο Lexus NX 300h, και το Lexus RC 300h. Η Toyota προγραµµατίζει περαιτέρω αύξηση του στÞλου τησ σε υβριδικά οχήµατα, αλλά και του αριθµού χωρών και περιοχών Þπου αυτά θα είναι διαθέσιµα. Η Toyota υπολογίζει Þτι στισ 30 Σεπτεµβρίου 2014, τα υβριδικά τησ οχήµατα έχουν εξοικονοµήσει περίπου 49 εκατοµµύρια λιγÞτερουσ τÞνουσ*2 των εκποµπών CO2, που πιστεύεται πωσ είναι η αιτία τησ υπερθέρµανσησ του πλανήτη – σε σχέση µε αντίστοιχα συµβατικά οχήµατα παρÞµοιου µεγέθουσ και επιδÞσεων. (* 1 Συµπεριλαµβάνει plug-in υβριδικών οχηµάτων. ∆εδοµένα Toyota και * 2 ΑριθµÞσ εγγεγραµµένων οχηµάτων, απÞσταση, απÞδοση καυσίµου -πραγµατική απÞδοση καυσίµου σε κάθε χώρα- συντελεστήσ µετατροπήσ CO2). ΠερισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στο www.toyota.com.cy
∆· ÂÏÏËÓÈο fiÛÚÈ· Agrino ÛÙÔ Î˘ÚÈ·Îfi ÙÚ·¤˙È
10 ¯ÚfiÓÈ· Starbucks ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Για 10 χρÞνια, τα Starbucks αποτελούν σταθερÞ σηµείο συνάντησησ και χώρο χαλάρωσησ και απÞλαυσησ µοναδικών, γευστικών ροφηµάτων των Κυπρίων! Στισ 23 Οκτωβρίου, στο πλήρωσ ανακαινισµένο κατάστηµα Starbucks Centennial στη Λευκωσία, προσκεκληµένοι απÞ Þλα τα Μέσα, γιÞρτασαν µαζί µε τα Starbucks ένα Þµορφο απÞγευµα, απολαµβάνοντασ ωραία παρέα και το αγαπηµένο τουσ ρÞφηµα Starbucks. Μέχρι τέλοσ Οκτωβρίου θα βρίσκεται σε εξέλιξη διαγωνισµÞσ, Þπου 10 τυχεροί θα έχουν την ευκαιρία να κερδίσουν απÞ 10 ροφήµατα ο καθένασ, γράφοντασ την ευχή τουσ σε ένα ποτήρι Starbucks και ανεβάζοντασ τη φωτογραφία στo app τησ σελίδασ του Starbucks Cyprus στο Facebook. Τα Starbucks θα συνεχίσουν να µοιράζονται µαζί σασ το πάθοσ τουσ για τον καφέ. Τα 10 πρώτα χρÞνια των Starbucks στην Κύπρο είναι µÞνο η αρχή. Η συνέχεια προβλέπεται να είναι ακÞµη πιο δυναµική και συναρπαστική, µε πολλέσ απολαυστικέσ εκπλήξεισ, νέεσ λαχταριστέσ επιλογέσ και αγαπηµένεσ Starbucks γεύσεισ!
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7 ÂÎ. ˘‚ÚȉÈο ∆oyota ·ÁÎÔÛÌ›ˆ˜
Η Agrino, που πρώτη αναβίωσε την καλλιέργεια των οσπρίων στην Ελλάδα, φέρνει κοντά σασ τα Ελληνικά Ùσπρια Agrino µε Þνοµα και περιοχή παραγωγού και καλλιεργηµένα µε τισ µεθÞδουσ τησ Ορθήσ Γεωργικήσ Πρακτικήσ! Η Agrino ταξιδεύει σε Þλη την Ελλάδα, συλλέγοντασ τισ καλύτερεσ ποικιλίεσ οσπρίων που ξεχωρίζουν Þχι µÞνο για τη γεύση, αλλά και για το οµοιÞµορφο βράσιµÞ τουσ. Απολαύστε τουσ µοναδικούσ ΓίγαντεσΕλέφαντεσ Π.Γ.Ε. Καστοριάσ και τα Μέτρια ΦασÞλια Βεγορίτιδασ µε την εξαιρετική βραστερÞτητα και το λεπτÞ φλοιÞ τουσ, τη Φάβα και τα Λουβιά απÞ το πανέµορφο οροπέδιο του Φενεού στην Κορινθία και τισ Ψιλέσ Φακέσ απÞ τα Φάρσαλα µε τη “γεµάτη” γεύση και υφή τουσ, κερδίζοντασ ένα διατροφικÞ θησαυρÞ και σύµµαχο στο τραπέζι τουσ! Αναζητείστε τα Ελληνικά Oσπρια Agrino, στισ χαρακτηριστικέσ «κίτρινεσ» συσκευασίεσ Agrino!
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October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 17
Budget row escalates as UK bill could reach €3.6 bln By Jeremy Fleming The row over a hefty top-up to the UK’s contribution to the EU budget worsened on Monday as Prime Minister David Cameron repeated he would not pay, and the EU Budget Commissioner warned there was no possibility of delaying payment without re-opening questions over the UK’s rebate on the European budget. Failure to pay could result in a fine of up to EUR 250,000 per day, a sum which could double if the bill remained unpaid after a year, EurActiv understands. The bill is in fact more than the EUR 2.1 bln referred previously. The total due on December 1 is actually EUR 3.591 bln, EU sources explained. The UK would however receive a one-off rebate of EUR 1.491 bln under a separate amended budget for 2014 currently under negotiation, and expected to be agreed on before the December deadline. That amended budget would reduce the amount owed to EUR 2.1 bln. STATISTICAL CHANGES The EU budget is partly financed on the basis of the national income of member states. The bill arises from adjustments to gross national income figures posted by member states which lead to adjustments in their contributions to EU budget. The UK’s bill is particularly large because its Office for National Statistics has brought several sectors – including the UK’s strong charitable sector – into line with European norms. As a result of the recalculation, £74 bln (EUR 94 bln) was added to Britain’s measured gross national income (GNI) in 2013. In a statement to Parliament in Westminster Cameron repeated earlier complaints that the payment was “not acceptable”, and said he had the support of Greece, Italy, Malta, the Netherlands “and others”.
“We are not paying on 1 December and we are not paying a sum anything like that,” he told MPs in London during a statement on last week’s EU summit. “We will challenge this any way possible. We will crawl through this with exhaustive detail,” he said, adding that “to use British understatement, this has not enhanced the position of the EU in the UK.” The leader of the opposition Labour Party, Ed Miliband, said that the Commission’s handling of the surcharge was “cackhanded and unacceptable”, but accused Cameron of negligence for not dealing with the problem earlier. “He is asleep at the wheel and the British people are paying the price,” Miliband told UK MPs. PANDORA’S BOX In Brussels, the EU Budget Commissioner Jacek Dominik told journalists he was “surprised by the reaction” in Britain because “up to this moment there was no single signal from the UK administration that they had problems with this figure.” There was “no possibility” under current EU rules to give Britain more time to pay the bill. A change to the law would
need support from a qualified majority from EU governments and this would be “extremely difficult”, Dominik said. Dominik said that Cameron would be in line to receive an increased UK budget rebate next year arising from the same UK GNI increases. “So, I think that would be extremely difficult to explain to member states, why on Monday you like this data and on Tuesday you don’t like it,” the budget commissioner said, adding: “If you open this act for future negotiations, you open up a Pandora’s box.” He warned that, if the money was not paid by 1 December, the European Commission would send the UK government a letter asking for reasons for the delay. There would “be a moment (if no response is delivered) that the Commission will start imposing late… fines”. If Cameron carries through his pledge not to pay the bill, and if it has not been reduces by the amending budget, the UK faces a punitive interest payment of around 2.5% of the total bill rising to 5.5% per annum if it remained unpaid after one year. POLITICAL UNREST EUR 2.1 bln is equal to a fifth of the UK’s annual transfer to Brussels. Other countries, such as Germany, and France – which has struggled to balance its budgets – will get rebates under the plans. An emergency meeting of EU finance ministers will be held on 7 November to discuss the bill. The row takes place against a tense background with a high profile by-election next month that will be scrutinised for evidence of rising Euroscepticism since traditional Conservative voters are likely to move over to the more hardline Eurosceptic U.K. Independence Party (UKIP). A victory for UKIP will up pressure on Cameron to toughen his stance on the EU in the run-up to next year’s general election in May. The Tory leader has promised a referendum on the UK’s EU membership in 2017, if the Conservatives are elected (Source: EurActiv.com)
Optimising the Eurozone By Koichi Hamada The eurozone is facing a bleak economic outlook, with growth remaining stagnant and the threat of deflation looming large. The economist Martin Feldstein, who was skeptical of the initiative from the start, now calls it a “failure.” Is Feldstein right, or could the eurozone become the “optimal currency area” that its creators believed it to be? Answering this question requires, first and foremost, an understanding of the costs and benefits of various exchangerate systems. The International Monetary Fund was established 70 years ago to manage an “adjustable peg” system – a hybrid system in which exchange rates were usually fixed to the US dollar, but could be adjusted occasionally to improve the country’s competitive position in export markets. For the first few decades, this system leaned heavily toward “peg,” owing to the US dollar’s direct convertibility to gold. This brought significant stability to the global monetary order, following the competitive devaluations of the 1930s that some economists considered damaging. But the fixed exchange-rate system also undermined the United States’ capacity to manage its balance of payments. That is why, in 1971, President Richard Nixon unilaterally abandoned the dollar’s convertibility to gold, leaving major currencies’ exchange rates to float against one another. Such a system provides important advantages – most notably, it enables the US Federal Reserve to pump money into the economy to prevent or halt a recession. But it also carries serious risks, exemplified in the trade imbalances that emerged in the 1980s. From 1980 to 1985, the US dollar appreciated by 50% against the currencies of Japan, West Germany, France, and the United Kingdom; America’s current-account deficit was approaching 3% of GDP; and its top four competitors had
massive surpluses and negative GDP growth. In order to fixed exchange-rate regime. correct these imbalances, the five countries signed the Plaza Unlike in Japan, eurozone countries’ failure to implement Accord, in which they agreed to intervene in currency bold monetary-policy measures is not a choice. The only markets to devalue the dollar. available monetary-policy tool is to change collectively the It is against this background that the euro was born, with euro’s value relative to outside currencies. But use of this the goal of boosting European economies by expanding their tool is constrained by the wide discrepancies among “local” market, lowering transaction costs, and facilitating individual countries’ appetite for inflationary or deflationary the flow of information. In 1991, the loss of monetary-policy price levels. independence seemed like a worthwhile trade-off for To be sure, European economic integration – a process Europe’s economies; today, it seems that it may have been a that, one might say, culminated with the eurozone’s mistake. establishment – also brought clear political benefits. As Robert Schuman In fact, America’s experience “In 1991, the loss of monetary-policy independence seemed promised when he conceived the idea in the 1960s like a worthwhile trade-off for Europe’s economies; today, of a European should have Community, intewarned the euroit seems that it may have been a mistake” gration has zone’s creators prevented the that tying national monetary authorities’ hands might not be such a good recurrence of war between Germany and France. But idea. That would not be the case if the eurozone operated whether monetary union on such a large scale was necessary according to Robert Mundell’s vision of an optimal currency to achieve this goal is dubious. In any case, the eurozone area, with labour and capital adjustments replacing exists – and, at this point, it would be exceedingly difficult to dismantle it fully. Given this, the goal today should be to exchange-rate adjustment, and shocks being homogeneous move toward an optimal currency area. (rather than asymmetric). Moreover, Germany’s experience For starters, Europe’s leaders must recognise that the with reunification suggests that political union is integral to eurozone, as it is currently constituted, is larger than such a union’s success. Europe’s optimal currency area. Some of its member The eurozone’s performance has not met any of these countries – certainly Greece, and probably Italy and Spain – criteria. Most notably, eurozone countries have faced need an independent monetary policy. Otherwise, they will powerful asymmetric shocks, to which their lack of continue to go from one crisis to the next, with countries independent monetary-policy instruments made it virtually that do fall within the optimal currency area – for example, impossible to respond. As a result, they have struggled with Germany and France – facing the consequences. recurring economic crisis. Once membership in the eurozone is optimised, the next To understand the corrective power of monetary policy, step will be to ensure continued progress toward political one need only consider Japan’s recent progress in escaping consolidation. The result will be a stronger, more efficient from decades of stagflation. Monetary expansion was one of eurozone – one in which the benefits really do outweigh the the three key features of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s costs. economic strategy – an approach that could have been Koichi Hamada, Special Economic Adviser to Japanese Prime implemented years ago to halt the yen’s sharp appreciation. Minister Shinzo Abe, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and The problem was that Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Tokyo. Kuroda’s predecessors behaved as if they were bound by a © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com
Can Rousseff rise to the challenge? By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary
Sunday’s passionately contested Presidential election in Brazil was won by the slimmest margin the country has seen since 1945. With just 51.6% of the vote, current Workers’ Party President, Dilma Rousseff, was re-elected over the centrist candidate Aecio Neves, in a divisive vote that pitted the country’s poor against conservatives frustrated with the stalling economy. While the half of the population who have benefited from Rousseff’s social benefits are rejoicing, many investors are dismayed at the outcome. Brazil’s first female President successfully expanded welfare programmes and achieved near record-low levels of unemployment, but she couldn’t stop the economy falling into recession in the first half of 2014; many analysts anticipate no growth this year. Such is the power of pessimistic investor sentiment, when opinion polls pointed in Rousseff’s favour in the run up to the election, Brazil’s stock market and currency took a hit. The country’s main index, the Ibovespa, which has lost 25% since she came to power, fell 6.8% last week. Although two third of Brazilians polled were in favour of change, and millions joined last year’s street protests, Naves failed to persuade the majority that he was the right leader for reform. So, can Rousseff save the world’s seventh-largest economy and prove her critics wrong? Can she put right stalling growth? Accepting victory, she acknowledged the challenge to unify the country, “Sometimes in history, narrow results produced much stronger and faster changes than very wide victories… I want to be a much better president than I have been up to now.” Rousseff is acutely aware that she has secured victory by
the thinnest possible thread and that Brazilians are now looking to her to prove her worth. In the past, she has blamed Brazil’s recession on the global slowdown, but now it would be more appropriate to take responsibility. Yes, the prices of commodities, accounting for about half of the country’s exports, are down globally, but that alone does not explain why Brazil has fared worse than the other BRIC countries and Latin America’s second biggest economy, Mexico. In reality, the business climate and investor confidence are also affected by the rigid labour rules and complex tax system, complete with corruption and underdeveloped public infrastructures. Only with a sense of responsibility can action and change follow. Rousseff has promised to fight inflation and corruption, and to take measures to boost growth. She will
also appoint a new Finance Minister to oversee the economy. The next quarter will set the scene for her second term in office. Will the President’s policies prove that she is as committed to fiscal progress as she says? Cautious investors will certainly be debating this as they speculate about Brazil’s 2015 outlook.
www.bancdebinary.com
Indications weaker Euro might be helping data Markets Report by Forextime Ltd
EURUSD – Is Germany on the cusp of recession? Speculation surrounding the possibility of the European Central Bank (ECB) considering extending its asset purchase programme in early 2015 encouraged investors to price in further stimulus from the ECB. As such, the EURUSD extended below its recently formed bullish trendline. On the other hand, there are signals that the substantially weaker exchange rate could be helping economic data following both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs coming in above expectations, which encouraged the pair to consolidate as the week concluded. The upcoming week for the Euro-dollar is going to be busy. The majority of the European data is released from Germany, where suspicions remain that the country could be entering another recession, as suggested by Ifo forecasts. We also expect German import data (Tuesday) alongside Unemployment Change and German inflation (Thursday), and on Friday, there is optimism EU inflation will have improved to an annualised 0.4%. However, as we have regularly seen in the past, the price at which the Eurodollar trades can change in an instant depending on demand for the USD. Wednesday will be an important day for this pair with the US Federal Reserve due to make a pronouncement on economic policy. If they deviate from their existing plan and instead announce the continuation of QE, this will have the knock-on effect of ensuring that an interest rate rise remains a long time away. If this scenario eventuates I would expect widespread USD profit-taking and it would not be a surprise if the EURUSD reversed to the upside and jumped towards 1.28.
Looking at the technicals, the EURUSD remains inside the same bearish channel it has found itself within for a few months. There is room on both the upside and downside for this pair to move over the coming week. Possible resistance can be found at 1.2739, 1.2765 and 1.2839 with support levels at 1.2613, 1.2570 and 1.2508.
GBPUSD – Dovish MPC warns of slowing UK economy The GBPUSD rollercoaster continued last week with the pair again reversing in direction. The pair declined by close to 100 pips following the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes release sounding far more dovish than expected. The minutes reported that there are signs of the UK economy losing momentum, weak price pressures remain and members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) are apprehensive about premature interest rate rises leaving the UK economy vulnerable to aftershocks. Not all of the comments were unexpected, but the general consensus was that the BoE is probably even more dovish now than what before the last meeting. For example, UK inflation has since fallen to 1.2%, far away from the threshold target of 2%, the level at which it will consider a rate rise. Additionally, although Friday’s GDP release came in line with expectations at an annualised 3%, the economy expanded 0.2% less than the previous quarter – meaning the BoE was valid in suggesting economic momentum is slowing. The upcoming week is very low with UK economic data, meaning the GBPUSD will move according to demand for the USD. From a technical standpoint, the pair found stable support around 1.60 last week, suggesting moves below 1.60 might be limited. I am not expecting Janet Yellen to appear hawkish on Wednesday, enhancing the chances of the GBPUSD benefiting from risk appetite.
Gold – Finding resistance at $1255 At the beginning of the week, Gold continued to progress but fell short of surpassing resistance around $1255. Following US inflation coming in higher than forecast, speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider unexpectedly continuing QE calmed down which encouraged Gold to pullback and conclude the week finding support just above $1230. Gold is potentially entering its most volatile week. I expect the Fed to conclude QE on Wednesday evening and speculation supporting this view should lead to Gold continuing to move lower during the week. However, I also expect Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to completely dismiss any chances of a US interest rate rise anytime soon. If Yellen also attempts to talk down the US economy, there could be potential for Gold to go on one final bull run this year. In the event the Fed unexpectedly continues QE, the prospects for Gold are bullish. In reference to my technical observations for Gold on the Daily timeframe, both the Stochastic Oscillator and RSI appear to be currently ranging. This is not unusual with such a key event such as the FOMC decision ahead, but if speculation emerges during the week that the Fed will conclude QE as planned, the potential is there for Gold to continue extending towards the critical $1180 support level. Support before can be found at $1220 and $1205. If the opposite occurs and if there is market speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue QE, I would expect sudden bullish movement. Gold has struggled to surpass resistance at $1250 and $1270 previously but the Fed continuing QE would weaken confidence in the US economy, meaning Gold should challenge these levels. ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is a forex broker founded by Andrey Dashin in December 2012. It is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm and is licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). For more information, disclaimer and risk warning, visit: Forex Circles at www.forexcircles.com
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19
Petrobras pounded after Rousseff win in Brazil Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE: PBR) is getting to demonstrate all over again just how bad it is when a nation is under a socialist regime. The oil giant Petrobras saw its American depositary shares (ADSs) in New York pounded on Monday morning on news that Dilma Rousseff was re-elected in Brazil. It is important to note how much the Petrobras shares were treated as a parabolic barometer of how the election polls were looking. Now it turns out that Dennis Gartman’s prediction was correct: Rousseff’s opponent had no chance of victory. That being said, her victory appears to be by a margin of only 51.6% to 48.4% over the centre-right candidate Aecio Neves. As far as why Petrobras is such an extreme barometer, it is a state-run oil company in which profit and growth take a backseat to the country’s population. Petrobras has its terms dictated to it: it has to pay to drill the oil and does not decide what it can sell the oil and finished products for. Sadly, Petrobras could be one of the greatest oil companies in the world. It has vast reserves, and it has yet to really capitalise by being a big international oil supplier on the world markets. Its state-run status keeps it in the dirt. Petrobras shares had already sold off around 40% from the highs of September, based on the expectation that Rousseff would win in her reelection bid. New York’s ADSs were up over 6% at $12.93 on Friday, but Monday’s trading indications had Petrobras shares down more than 16% at $10.83. Keep in mind that the 52-week low of $10.20 was back in March, so a run to above $20 has effectively all been wiped out. The preferred shares of Petrobras trade as PBR-A, and they were down 16% at $11.27, against a 52-week range of $10.66 to $22.14.
Buying the dip? Choose Asia Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics Markets remain jittery, but the last week has at least seen a break in the downward momentum. Hence it may be worth taking stock of relative performance by the big regions. Looking across the MSCI benchmarks, the All Country World index is down –4.7% since its peak in early September, while the US, Eurozone, Emerging Markets (ex-Asia) and Emerging Asia declined respectively by –3.9%, -5.2%, -8.4% and –5.4%. At this juncture there will be investors who want to reenter the market on the basis that this is a short term correction rather than a dead cat bounce. After all, the big central banks remain accommodative with US short rates at record lows, the European Central Bank is looking at corporate bond purchases and the Bank of Japan remains determined to stir inflation by aggressive quantitative easing. Such investors will need to make a call based on relative value. The obvious reaction might be that eurozone markets offer most potential for a snap back as gloom is greatest there. Our view is that on a risk-adjusted basis, emerging Asia represents a better bet as its earnings outlook is healthier. Using our preferred valuation measure—the 12-month forward P/E ratio which normalises for sector composition variations across regions—both Emerging Asia and eurozone countries offer comparable value. Both regions are similarly valued on a price-to-book basis. And when we apply a price-to-cash-flow to the median stock, Asia comes out at a 10% discount to the eurozone and a 25% discount to the US. The key point is that regions are not created equal since they have very different earnings outlooks. A higher US valuation multiple is explicable as firms have managed through a disinflationary environment with innovation and cost cutting. Relatively stronger US economic growth also boosts the US equity market. By contrast, what mystifies us is the valuation similarity between eurozone markets and Emerging Asia. One persistent worry for investors in Asia is the potential for China to experience a deflationary bust. We frequently hear this concern from clients, but reckon it is way overblown. And absent a global crisis, Emerging Asia exporters have a good record of delivering decent earnings growth, even when facing disinflationary pressure. Moreover, Asia’s exporters are set to get something of a tailwind as global disinflationary forces are mostly coming from lower commodity prices. We would expect positive
By Jon C. Ogg – 24/7 Wall St.com
results to show up first in commodity-intensive industries such as airlines, processed foods and autos, with a lag of up to two quarters. In the longer run, Emerging Asian economies’ nominal growth rates (in USD terms) are running at about twice the level in the eurozone, hence corporate profits should outperform. To be sure, Emerging Asia’s equity earnings growth depends on getting a helpful lift from the US and EU economies, especially since Chinese growth is softening. Fortunately, the US growth outlook remains decently strong with leading indicators such as the ISM manufacturing PMI defying market concerns. Furthermore, a stronger US dollar and weaker energy prices represent an effective tax cut for US consumers. The big question mark in this equation is, of course, the weak state of the eurozone economy. Gavekal has mixed views on this topic, but there are reasons to think that this weekend’s Asset Quality Review results release will at least take away one more uncertainty.
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Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.
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The Financial Markets Base Rates
LIBOR rates
CCY 0.125% 0.50% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00%
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0.20 0.53 0.03 0.11 0.01
0.23 0.56 0.06 0.11 0.01
0.32 0.69 0.14 0.16 0.06
0.55 1.01 0.30 0.31 0.16
USD GBP EUR JPY CHF
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0.61 1.08 0.23 0.15 0.02
0.98 1.33 0.28 0.16 0.04
1.31 1.53 0.36 0.18 0.11
1.57 1.70 0.47 0.23 0.20
1.95 1.96 0.72 0.37 0.44
2.31 2.24 1.10 0.61 0.75
Exchange Rates Major Cross Rates
CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY
1 USD
Opening Rates
1 EUR
1 GBP
1 CHF
100 JPY
1.2682
1.6116
1.0517
0.9275
1.2708
0.8293
0.7313
0.6526
0.5755
0.7885 0.6205
0.7869
0.9508
1.2058
1.5323
107.82
136.74
173.76
0.8818 113.40
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Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia
BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH
10690 1.6109 1.5422 21.845 5.8711 12.3389 1.2679 1.75 243.29 0.55423 2.7229 0.3385 14.67 6.6192 3.3309 3.4879 42.2652 7.2995 0.9511 12.8737
AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD
0.8794 1.1242 7.7572 61.3 107.82 1052.1 1.2695 1.2758
BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED
0.3770 7.1474 26519.00 3.7867 0.7084 0.2893 1513.50 0.3850 3.6413 3.7515 10.9675 3.6729
AZN KZT TRY
0.7833 180.85 2.2374
AMERICAS & PACIFIC
Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
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Weekly movement of USD
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Today
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1.2802
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GBP EUR
138.92
137.91
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135.48
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1.6116 1.2682 107.82 0.9508
1.6073 1.2659 107.02 0.9491
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Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham ASIA
%Change +0.27 +0.18 +0.75 +0.18
Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:
* USD per National Currency
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
20 | WORLD | financialmirror.com
Rousseff victory a mixed bag for commodities The impact of Dilma Rousseff’s reelection in Brazil on Sunday has been severely felt by oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (NYSE: PBR). Shares in Petrobras dived 16% at the opening bell on Monday morning and haven’t recovered much since. And the elections are tamping down other commodity prices in a serious way. Sugar prices are down more than 2.5%, while coffee prices have recovered a little to post a small gain, and soybeans and beef have also risen. Brazil is the world’s top exporter of all these commodities, and it produces significant amounts of corn and cotton. The country is also a large importer of wheat. Brazil’s currency weakened by more than 2% Monday, and that will have the effect of encouraging export sales of commodity products traded in dollars. Oil, which the government controls, most likely will be unable to take advantage of the good export environment, but sugar growers may be
looking at a potential windfall. Brazilian iron ore miner Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) dropped nearly 7% on Monday, but that is due primarily to a weak global market for iron ore. Ethanol producer Cosan Ltd. (NYSE: CZZ), down about 8% so far, also likely would have benefited if Rousseff’s
opponent, Aecio Neves, had won. Neves was expected to lift the price cap on gasoline, and that would have pushed up ethanol prices as well. Rousseff is expected to continue capping gasoline in an effort to curb Brazil’s inflation. In a note on Monday morning, Fitch ratings said:
“Corporates in the electricity sectors, as well as those in the sugar and ethanol industry, are the most vulnerable to negative rating actions. Iron ore and pulp producers will face weak external market conditions due to oversupply, but are not likely to be downgraded, as their costs positions allow them to continue to generate positive cash flow. The protein sector stands out as a sector that could have more positive than negative rating actions. Low grain prices and growing demand for proteins should continue in 2015; balance sheets are projected to strengthen due to strong operating performance.” Oddly, Fitch had nothing to say about coffee in its note. That is likely due to the continuing impact of Brazil’s drought, which has taken a huge toll on the country’s coffee crop. (By Paul Ausick, Source: 24/7 Wall St.com)
Repos defined By Persella Ioannides Repos (repurchase agreements) may be defined as the sale of a security coupled with an agreement to repurchase it at a higher price at a fixed future date. However, in practical terms, the sale is not a real sale, but a loan, collateralised by the security. As such, a repo is translated into receiving financing against collateral which could be fixed income or equities alike. The liquidity and the credit risk of the underlying instrument determine the financing which can be sourced against it, also known as the “haircut”. The annualised financing rate is fixed irrespective of the underlying collateral type and it is usually set by the financial institution willing to undertake the repo transaction. As an example, US treasuries carry a ‘AAA’ S&P rating and trade with very narrow spreads; the bid and ask difference being indicative of the liquidity of the underlying. These bonds require a much lower haircut than Russian Federation bonds of par maturity which carry a ‘BBB’ S&P rating and have much wider bid and ask spreads (the haircut stands at an indicative 10% vs. 30%). So, an investor that puts up US$ 1 mln worth of US Treasuries as collateral would obtain $900,000 as financing at a fixed annual interest rate versus $700,000 financing against a collateral of Russian Federation bonds of equal worth. The same variants for financing apply in the instance of equities where blue chip stocks are inherently more liquid and have lower haircuts than stocks with lower credit ratings.
Reverse repo (RRP) A reverse repo is defined as exactly the same operation but the swap is performed from the perspective of the buyer rather than the seller. As the labeling of the direction of the repo is seen from the side of the dealer, typically, if the dealer borrows money it’s a repo while if the dealer lends money it’s a reverse repo.
Current trends in the repo business Tightening regulatory changes have made the repo business less attractive for banks. During the subprime crisis of 2007-08, numerous banks cut credit lines with each other amid a sentiment of high risk aversion, which resulted to a credit crunch. Consequently, financial regulators had to adjust regulatory measures so that they could have more control of liquidity. Adjustments of two particular ratios, the net stable funding ratio (proportion of long-term assets funded by longterm funding) and the supplementary leverage ratio (measures ability to meet financing obligations) make it less attractive for banks to engage in repo activity as it became much less attractive and possible to own short-term debt. This may trigger further settlement issues as lower liquidity and fewer, available short-term debt make it difficult to get hold of sought after, more liquid paper which can lead to failed trades. Although this
undermines the Fed’s goals of financial stability, regulators consider the financial system stronger overall once the constituent players are less reliant on short-term funding like repo. Due to the above dynamics, the Fed formed a foothold in the repo business equipped with a portfolio of more than $4.3
in the latter by offering repo financing to buyers of the more senior tranches. The current, stricter banking regulatory environment where banks can’t hold CLOs as assets “onbalance sheet”, encourages lending against them and making returns in this manner.
“Repos are the oil that greases the wheels of the financial system, allowing financial institutions to manage their cash needs” trln bonds purchased while enacting its QE monetary policy operations. It utilises reverse repo operations (RRP) to raise short term financing from money market funds, a trade which in a more flexible era was enacted much more so by banks. The growing presence of the Fed in repos portrays its pursuit to formulate new methods to regulate short-term interest rates once it starts tapering its QE. Once monetary policy is reversed and short-term rates are hiked, the Fed may utilise RRP to squeeze cash out of the financial markets. By controlling the short-term loans of Treasuries of its huge balance sheet it may manage the liquidity pumped back into the capital markets, especially as banks’ current role in the repo market is less significant. Moreover, as banks shift to longer-term financing, non-bank entities such as hedge funds and in particular REITS (Real Estate Investment Trusts) are gaining market share in the $4.2 trln market. Such players turn to repos to boost returns given the current economic environment of low rates. By using more borrowed money, or leverage, REITS and hedge funds can take larger positions to optimise returns, a strategy which works in stable markets; of course, if the market reverses, leveraged positions translate into larger losses. Lastly, repo financing is also playing a new role in the marketing of CLOs (Collateralised Loan Obligations) which are bonds backed by loans to companies. They consist of tranches, whereby highly rated senior slices offer lower yields versus the riskiest slices. As investors are in pursuit of higher yields they either invest in the riskier slices or invest in the most senior slices by leveraging the respective position. Banks are involved
Risks and Benefits The main risk with conducting repo transactions relates to collateral management following sharp financial market swings. For instance, in a repo transaction where the dealer borrows money against collateral, a sharp market downswing in the underlying position would translate into market value losses below the secured haircut, i.e. the borrower’s position not being collateralised enough. The dealer would then face a margin call. The opposite would occur in the instance of a reverse repo situation. The main benefit of such transactions is facilitating financing by utilising idle paper or securities and it is a form of liquidity that is easily accessible also to retail investors that wish to capitalise on buy and hold positions held in their respective portfolios. Instead of undergoing voluminous due diligence procedures on prospective business projects and collateralising fixed assets such as real estate to raise financing, employing repo transactions for liquidity is a swifter and more flexible alternative. Do not hesitate to contact us if you have idle, decently sized portfolios of euroclearable, liquid securities that could be better optimised for your financing needs. info@meritkapital.com +357 25 85 79 00 Persella Ioannides is a Director at Meritkapital Ltd, a CySEC licensed investment firm rendering brokerage (DMA), investment advice, asset management and custody services. www.meritkapital.com * http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21606835where-next-financial-crisis-may-appear-neither-liquid-nor-solid
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
financialmirror.com | WORLD | 21
How analysts rate Alibaba before quiet period ends This week will mark the end of the analyst quiet period for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (NYSE: BABA). Some have still issued brokerage firm reports ahead of the formal underwriters’ analysts. Keep in mind that Alibaba’s initial public offering (IPO) price was $68 and shares started trading on September 19. The shares opened at $92.70 on the first day of trading, and Alibaba raised some $21.8 bln in the largest ever U.S. IPO, with the deal being closer to $25 bln if underwriters wanted to exercise the overallotment option in full. Alibaba closed at $95.76 on Friday, October 25, against a post-IPO range of $82.81 to $99.70. We have included firm-by-firm analyst coverage, which includes a price target, relative share prices at the time and color if available. Bank of America Merrill Lynch initiated its coverage of Alibaba with a Buy rating, and it assigned a $112 price objective on October 17, with shares trading around $88 at the time. The firm talked up Alibaba’s platform strategy and network effect with a stable monetisation rate offsetting a mix shift to lower-tax-rate mobile channel. Barclays initiated Alibaba with an Overweight rating and price target of $107, due to its leading online commerce ecosystem having a combined 80% market share in C2C and B2C segments. The firm sees upside potential for its monetisation rate, synergies across marketplaces,
leveraging big data analysis and cloud infrastructure. BMO Capital Markets initiated coverage with an Outperform rating with a $110 price target. CRT Capital started coverage back on September 18 with a $95 price target, immediately ahead of the IPO and first day of trading. Macquarie initiated coverage with a Neutral rating back on October 8, with a mere $88 price target at the time. The firm believes growth will continue, but noted that it is valued at 26 times expected 2016 earnings already when competition is heating up. MKM Partners issued a Buy rating back on September 22. Its price target was all the way up at $125, versus a price of roughly $94 at that time. Susquehanna started coverage as Positive back at the end of September. Its price target was up at $110, while the stock was close to $90 at that time. UBS started its coverage back on October 14. The firm issued a Buy rating and a $100 price target, at the time when shares were closer to $85. So, who else will initiate research coverage for Alibaba this week? Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup were the joint bookrunners on the deal. (By Jon C. Ogg, Source: 24/7 Wall St.com)
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index continues to fall The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell in October to 103.2 points from 104.7 points in the previous month, the Ifo Institut said on Monday. Assessments of the current business situation were once again less favourable than last month. Expectations with regard to the six-month business outlook continued to cloud over. The outlook for the German economy deteriorated once again. In manufacturing the business climate deteriorated significantly. Assessments of the current business situation were markedly less favourable and are now only marginally higher than the long-term average. Business expectations also continued to deteriorate. Capacity utilisation rates fell by 0.3 percentage points to 83.7%. Export business expectations, however, was the only area in which manufacturers did express mild confidence. In wholesaling the business climate index rose. After three consecutive decreases, assessments of the current business situation improved considerably. Business expectations remained slightly pessimistic. In retailing the business climate continued to cloud over. Retailers were markedly less satisfied with their current business situation. Their expectations, by contrast, brightened somewhat. In construction the business climate indicator dropped marginally, but remains at a very good level. Construction firms assessed their current business situation as slightly more favourable. Business expectations, however, fell to their lowest level in a year.
Time for a new macroeconomic strategy By Jeffrey D. Sachs I am a macroeconomist, but I dissent from the profession’s two leading camps in the United States: the neo-Keynesians, who focus on boosting aggregate demand, and the supplysiders, who focus on cutting taxes. Both schools have tried and failed to overcome the high-income economies’ persistently weak performance in recent years. It is time for a new strategy, one based on sustainable, investment-led growth. The core challenge of macroeconomics is to allocate society’s resources to their best use. Workers who choose to work should find jobs; factories should deploy their capital efficiently; and the part of income that is saved rather than consumed should be invested to improve future wellbeing. It is on this third challenge that both neo-Keynesians and supply-siders have dropped the ball. Most high-income countries – the US, most of Europe, and Japan – are failing to invest adequately or wisely toward future best uses. There are two ways to invest – domestically or internationally – and the world is falling short on both. Domestic investment comes in various forms, including business investment in machinery and buildings; household investment in homes; and government investment in people (education, skills), knowledge (research and development), and infrastructure (transport, power, water, and climate resilience). The neo-Keynesian approach is to try to boost domestic investment of any sort. Indeed, according to this view, spending is spending. Thus, neo-Keynesians have tried to spur more housing investment through rock-bottom interest rates, more auto purchases through securitised consumer loans, and more “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects through shortterm stimulus programs. When investment spending does not budge, they recommend that we turn “excess” saving into another consumption binge. Supply-siders, by contrast, want to promote private (certainly not public!) investment through more tax cuts and further deregulation. They have tried that on several occasions in the US, most recently during the George W. Bush administration. Unfortunately, the result of this deregulation was a short-lived housing bubble, not a sustained boom in productive private investment. Though policy alternates between supply-side and neoKeynesian enthusiasm, the one persistent reality is a significant decline of investment as a share of national income in most high-income countries in recent years. According to IMF data, gross investment spending in these countries has declined
from 24.9% of GDP in 1990 to just 20% in 2013. In the US, investment spending declined from 23.6% of GDP in 1990 to 19.3% in 2013, and fell even more markedly in net terms (gross investment excluding capital depreciation). In the European Union, the decline was from 24% of GDP in 1990 to 18.1% in 2013. Neither neo-Keynesians nor supply-siders focus on the true remedies for this persistent drop in investment spending. Our societies urgently need more investment, particularly to convert heavily polluting, energy-intensive, and high-carbon production into sustainable economies based on the efficient use of natural resources and a shift to low-carbon energy sources. Such investments require complementary steps by the public and private sectors. The necessary investments include large-scale deployment of solar and wind power; broader adoption of electric transport, both public (buses and trains) and private (cars); energy-efficient buildings; and power grids to carry renewable energy across large distances (say, from the North Sea and North Africa to continental Europe, and from California’s Mojave Desert to US population centers). But just when our societies should be making such investments, the public sectors in the US and Europe are on a veritable “investment strike.” Governments are cutting back public investment in the name of budget balance, and private investors cannot invest robustly and securely in alternative energy when publicly regulated power grids, liability rules, pricing formulas, and national energy policies are uncertain and heavily disputed. In the US, public investment spending has been slashed. Neither the federal government nor the states have political mandates, funding strategies, or long-term plans to catalyse investment in the next generation of smart, clean technologies. Both neo-Keynesians and supply-siders have misunderstood the investment paralysis. Neo-Keynesians see investments, public and private, as merely another kind of aggregate demand. They neglect the public-policy decisions regarding energy systems and infrastructure (as well as the targeted R&D to
promote new technologies) that are needed to unleash smart, environmentally sustainable public and private investment spending. Thus, they promote gimmicks (zero interest rates and stimulus packages), rather than pressing for the detailed national policies that a robust investment recovery will require. The supply-siders, for their part, seem utterly oblivious to the dependence of private investment on complementary public investment and a clear policy and regulatory framework. They advocate slashing government spending, naively believing that the private sector will somehow magically fill the void. But, by cutting public investment, they are hindering private investment. Private electricity producers, for example, will not invest in large-scale renewable energy generation if the government does not have long-term climate and energy policies or plans for spurring construction of long-distance transmission lines to carry new low-carbon energy sources to population centers. Such messy policy details have never much bothered freemarket economists. There is also the option of using domestic saving to boost foreign investments. The US could, for example, lend money to low-income African economies to buy new power plants from US companies. Such a policy would put US private saving to important use in fighting global poverty, while strengthening the US industrial base. Yet here, too, neither the neo-Keynesians nor the supplysiders have exerted much effort to improve the institutions of development finance. Instead of advising Japan and China to raise their consumption rates, macroeconomists would be wiser to encourage these economies to use their high savings to fund not only domestic but also overseas investments. These considerations are reasonably clear to anyone concerned with the urgent need to harmonize economic growth and environmental sustainability. Our generation’s most pressing challenge is to convert the world’s dirty and carbon-based energy systems and infrastructure into clean, smart, and efficient systems for the twenty-first century. Investing in a sustainable economy would dramatically boost our wellbeing and use our “excess” savings for just the right purposes. Yet this will not happen automatically. We need longterm public-investment strategies, environmental planning, technology roadmaps, public-private partnerships for new, sustainable technologies, and greater global cooperation. These tools will create the new macroeconomics on which our health and prosperity now depend. Jeffrey D. Sachs is Professor of Sustainable Development, Professor of Health Policy and Management, and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is also Special Adviser to the United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals. © Project Syndicate, 2014, www.project-syndicate.org
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
22 | WORLD | financialmirror.com
Stunted user growth wrecks Twitter earnings Twitter, Inc. (NYSE: TWTR) reported its third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Monday as $0.01 in earnings per share and $361 mln in revenue against Thomson Reuters consensus estimates of $0.01 in earnings per share and $351.35 mln in revenue. The company has guidance for the fourth quarter of $440-450 mln in revenue. The consensus earnings estimate for revenue in the fourth quarter is $448.18 mln. On the 2014 full year, Twitter expects revenues of $1.36-1.37 bln against a consensus estimate of $1.36 bln. Net income for the third quarter was $6.97 mln compared to a net loss in the third quarter of the previous year of $17.2 mln. Average Monthly Active Users (MAUs) totalled 284 mln for the third quarter which was an increase of 23% year over year. The average mobile MAUs represented about 80% of all MAUs. Sequential growth in monthly users slowed from 6.3% in the second quarter to 4.8% in the third quarter. The 284 mln MAUS was toward the low end of the analysts’
estimate of 280 to 288 mln. Timeline views reached 181 bln for the third quarter, recording an increase of 14% year over year. Advertising revenue per thousand timeline views reached $1.77 which was an increase of 83% from last year. Revenues were distributed over these segments: advertising revenue totalled at $320 mln and mobile advertising revenue made up 85% of it; data licensing and other revenue totalled $41 mln, an increase of
171% from the previous year; international revenue totalled at $121 mln, 34% of total revenue and an increase of 176% from the previous year. Brand Keys ranked Twitter in the top 20 brand loyalty leaders. This list spanned 65 product categories and 721 brands. The list noted that out of the top 20 stocks, only one was not a tech company. “We had another very strong financial quarter. I’m confident in our ability to build
the largest daily audience in the world, over time, by strengthening the core, reducing barriers to consumption and building new apps and services,” said Dick Costolo, CEO of Twitter. Citigroup initiated coverage on Twitter with a Neutral rating and a $53 price target, on October 21. Twitter was raised to Overweight from Neutral and the price target was set at $64 (versus a $50.06 closing price) at J.P. Morgan, on October 2. The call was based on a belief that Twitter will continue to add new users and that it will be able to monetise the shift toward mobile advertising. Shares of Twitter closed on Monday down 2.7% at $48.56. Following the earnings report, the initial reaction in the after-hours market has been negative and shares were down over 9% at $44.12. The company’s stock has a consensus analyst price target of $54.82 and a post-IPO trading range of $29.51 to $74.73. It has a market cap of around $29 bln. By Chris Lange
American-made financial repression in 1996-2005 – the dollar provided an anchor for the macroeconomic efforts and fiscal and By Andrew stabilisation monetary discipline that structural transformation demanded. Sheng & But two disruptions undermined Geng Xiao these benefits. First, in 1971, the US terminated the dollar’s convertibility to gold, opening the way for the emergence of a new exchange-rate regime, based on A generation of development economists freely floating fiat currencies. owe Ronald McKinnon, who died earlier this Then came the period of “Japan-bashing” month, a huge intellectual debt for his insight in the 1980s-1990s, which culminated in – introduced in his 1973 book ‘Money and threats from the US to impose trade sanctions Capital in Economic Development’ – that if Japan’s competitive pressure on American governments that engage in financial industries did not ease. With the subsequent repression (channeling funds toward sharp appreciation in the yen/dollar exchange themselves to reduce their debt) hamper rate, from JPYUSD360:1 to 80:1, the world’s financial development. Indeed, McKinnon second-largest economy has suffered through provided the key to understanding why two decades of deflation and stagnation. emerging economies’ financial sectors were Throughout this period, McKinnon argued underdeveloped. that, by forcing America’s trade partners to At the end of his life, McKinnon was bear the burden of adjustment, the dollar’s working on a related – also potentially predominance leads to “conflicted virtue”: groundbreaking – concept: a dollar-renminbi surplus countries like Japan, Germany, and standard. In his view, such a system would alleviate the financial repression and China faced pressure to strengthen their fragmentation that is undermining global currencies, at the risk of triggering deflation. If financial stability and growth. The question is they failed to do so, their “undervalued” whether the powers that be – particularly in exchange rates were criticised as unfair. But McKinnon disagreed with the the United States, which has long benefited conventional wisdom that the best way to from the dollar’s global domination – would resolve this conflict would be to shift to flexible ever agree to such a cooperative system. The notion that the dollar’s global exchange rates. Instead, he recommended that dominance is contributing to financial Asian countries develop a regional currency repression represents a significant historical that would provide macroeconomic stability in shift. As McKinnon pointed out, the dollar the face of dollar volatility. Long before the became a dominant international currency Bretton Wood institutions conceded that after World War II because it helped to reduce capital controls could be useful, McKinnon financial repression and fragmentation in was asserting that, under certain Europe and Asia, where high inflation, circumstances, such controls might be negative real interest rates, and excessive necessary to supplement prudential banking regulation prevailed. By using the dollar to regulation. anchor prices and the Federal Reserve’s McKinnon has a particularly strong interest rate as the benchmark for the cost of following among Chinese economists. China capital, invoicing, payments, clearing, achieved its strongest growth when the liquidity, and central-bank reserves all became renminbi was pegged to the dollar – a system more stable and reliable. that required steadfast reforms and strict fiscal As long as the US remained competitive discipline. and productive, currencies that were pegged to The renminbi’s steady appreciation against the dollar benefited considerably. For the dollar – at an annual rate of about 3%, on economies in transition – such as Western average, since 2005 – shrank China’s currentEurope in the 1950s-1960s, Asia during the account surplus. In a weak global economic growth miracle of the 1970s-1990s, and China environment, China’s progress in addressing
macroeconomic imbalances, while maintaining an annual growth rate of about 7%, was no small feat. But the renminbi’s appreciation also attracted carry-trade speculators, who purchased renminbi assets in order to benefit from high interest rates (particularly after 2008) and exchange-rate gains. This is partly why China’s foreign-exchange reserves have swelled so rapidly, from $250 bln in 2000 to $4 trln this year. The problem, as McKinnon recognised, is that these speculative inflows of “hot” money have weakened China’s macroeconomic tools and fueled ever more financial repression. For starters, China’s leaders, recognising that higher interest rates would draw even greater inflows, are increasingly wary of interest-rate – and even capital-account – liberalisation. Making matters worse, the Chinese authorities are tightening credit and regulating the money supply through sterilisation and high reserve requirements for bank deposits – an approach that undermines real economic growth considerably. In order to stem this decline without raising interest rates too much, they have resorted to administratively targeted credit loosening. More “China-bashing,” with the US demanding that the renminbi be allowed to appreciate further, is clearly not the answer. Instead, the US should focus on reducing its
own fiscal deficit, thereby facilitating Chinese efforts to boost domestic consumption. If the Fed’s benchmark interest rate can be restored to historical trend levels, China would have more policy space to adjust interest rates in alignment with its growth pattern and pursue an orderly opening of its capital account. Simply put, the world needs its two largest economies to work together to bolster global monetary stability. Together, China and the US can alleviate financial repression, avert protectionist tendencies, and help maintain a strong foundation for global stability. Unfortunately, McKinnon’s policy advice has not been popular among mainstream American economists and policymakers, who prefer the short-term political advantages afforded to them by free-market rhetoric. It is time for US leaders to recognise that what former French Finance Minister Valéry Giscard d’Estaing called the “exorbitant privilege” that the dollar’s global dominance affords America also entails considerable responsibility. Global monetary stability is, after all, a public good. Andrew Sheng is Distinguished Fellow of the Fung Global Institute and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance. Xiao Geng is Director of Research at the Fung Global Institute. © Project Syndicate, 2014. www.project-syndicate.org
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
financialmirror.com | GREECE | 23
How Samaras backed himself (and Greece) into a corner over bailout exit By Yiannis Mouzakis and Nick Malkoutzis - MacroPolis.gr The line coming out of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s office at the end of May was that New Democracy did not lose the European Parliament elections despite receiving almost 4 percentage points less than SYRIZA. Together with PASOK, the ruling party had a bigger share of the vote than the opposition. The argument emanating from the government camp was that if the leftists couldn’t score a decisive victory at the tail end of the Greek depression, they would never achieve one. It is strange, then, that all the key decisions taken by Samaras and his ministers since May have been those of a government on the run. In less than five months, the coalition has backed itself and the country into a corner as it searched desperately for a way to avoid a political defeat that it was in denial about in May. The unravelling began on June 9 with the cabinet reshuffle. Samaras’s decision to pack the government with belligerent populists was an admission that he was manning the barricades for a no-holds-barred political battle rather than paving the way for a reform-driven turnaround. This was the moment that Samaras and his coalition partner, PASOK’s Evangelos Venizelos, began to lose the trust of those moderate voters in Greece who had tolerated (rather than supported) them in the belief they were the least bad option for the country. The government’s opinion poll ratings have headed only one way since this move. The unveiling of the unified property tax in July proved a fiasco. The new tax was full of errors and prompted uproar among backbenchers. The newly appointed Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis quickly sought to distance himself from the tax, arguing that it had been designed before he took up the post.
In the end, the government had to rotate its MPs to ensure that amendments to the bill would pass through Parliament. Amid fanfare, the government announced on July 28 that it had fulfilled the wishes of most Greeks and driven the troika out. Well, sort of. Voters were informed that the next meeting with the troika, in early September, would take place in Paris, not Athens. This, the domestic audience was told, was proof that Samaras and Venizelos were going to oversee the conclusion of the adjustment programme and the end of the troika’s invasive role in Greek policymaking. Reality, though, proved quite different. The Paris meeting was little more than a pre-inspection briefing during which it became blatantly obvious that the government still had numerous actions to fulfil. Almost two months on, the review has still not been concluded and Samaras and Venizelos are still meeting every week to decide what measures to implement. Seeing the two year old promise of debt relief slipping away, Samaras felt he needed something else tangible to present to MPs in the hope of averting the government’s collapse in February, when Parliament must elect a new president with a super-majority of 180 out of 300 votes. This led to the prime minister pivoting towards a new strategy: an early bailout exit. So, in mid-September the government floated the idea of Greece not taking on 12 bln euros in IMF loans due in 2015 and 2016, casting off the shackles of troika monitoring and exorcising the demons of a possible third bailout. The tactic was based on the idea that Greece could borrow from the markets at cheaper rates than the IMF. Samaras first unveiled this strategy at his meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on September 23. It quickly became evident that the universe was not willing to conspire with the government’s new cunning plan. Merkel went to her default mode of being non-committal, insisting that the troika review had to complete its review before anything else
could be agreed. There was a similarly cool response from IMF managing director Christine Lagarde when a Greek delegation, including Hardouvelis, met her in Washington on October 12. The Eurogroup also suggested on October 13 that Greece was getting ahead of itself. Just days after Samaras unveiled his vision for rounding off the year with a clean bailout exit, it became clear that any departure would involve a precautionary credit line. Markets soon displayed their scepticism of such a plan. Greece’s bond yields, which had started to rise in the wake of Samaras’s announcement in Berlin, shot up last week to around 9% as political risk also became a factor. Once again, events forced the government into a rethink and plans for a precautionary credit line, cobbled together from the leftovers (up to 11.5 bln euros) in the HFSF bank recapitalisation fund, were aired. Meanwhile, it became obvious that claims that the bailout exit would also mean an end to monitoring were also unfounded. While the IMF may peel away from the troika, it will
remain as a technical adviser. Also, the eurozone will maintain some form of oversight. Even ECB president Mario Draghi has made it clear Greek banks will not qualify for the purchase of Asset Backed Securities (ABS) and covered bonds if Greece is not under a programme. Each straw the government has tried to clutch onto to save itself has been a short one. Its last hope is to conjure up a plan that involves giving back money it has already borrowed from the European Stability Mechanism at a rate of around 2% and with no interest payments due for ten years so it can go to the markets to borrow the same amount at a rate much higher and with no grace period. At the same time, Greece will still be bound by the terms of an agreement with the eurozone – a memorandum by another name. It is difficult to see how this is a plan that leaves Greece better off. Then again, though, perhaps it is just a plan to save this government. At the moment it looks highly unlikely that it will even manage that.
TUI Suisse to boost capacity by 5% in 2015 TUI Suisse, one of the leading tour operators from central Europe and a member of the giant TUI group, plans to boost its traffic to Greece next year. Martin Wittwer, CEO of TUI’s Switzerland operations, said that Greece is one of the popular destinations for the Swiss and they expect to have increased demand in the 2015 summer season. For this reason they have increased their capacity by 5%.
Every year TUI Suisse takes its staff and travel agents to its TUI World Experience Tour. This year the destination was Crete, Greece, where Wittwer made his comments to staff and local officials. The objective of the 160 plus participants was to get a first hand experience of the destination so that they can transfer the feeling and what to expect to their clients for the upcoming summer season 2015.
The programme included sightseeing, research on the destination, presentations of the local authorities, inspection of the Grecotel hotels and tasting of the local cuisine, wine and the local “Tsikoudia”. The program also had plenty of entertainment with the final highlight being the gala dinner with theme “Ancient Greece”, where all participants were dressed as Ancient Greeks.
Samaras confident after banking stress tests The positive results of the European Central Bank stress tests on Greek banks prompted Antonis Samaras to say, “step by step, and on a steady basis, we are coming out of the crisis… a new Greece is born, proud, economically strong, and just.” The coalition government is optimistic that the economy will be boosted as there will be more liquidity in banks, allowing for much-needed lending to struggling businesses. This will lead to the ambitious target of 2.9% GDP growth the government has set. At the same time, the results of the ECB stress tests will leave the 11 bln euros of the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund at the government’s disposal to use as they see fit. The 11 bln euros can be used as a cushion in case Greece exits the bailout programme early but cannot cover the 2015 budget shortfalls by borrowing from the international markets. It can also be used to pay a portion of the sovereign debt, thus
bringing it down by a few percentage points and making it sustainable, as the debt currently stands at a total of 320 bln euros. However, the troika evaluation in November will include thorny issues that will hardly be resolved by then. The reforms the troika wants on “red” loans, salaries in the public sector, changes in labour laws, new union legislation and retirement funds are not easy to be implemented. Especially with Samaras pushing for an early exit from the bailout programme. Therefore, it is certain that Greece will remain under some sort of watch from its creditors. What the prime minister is hoping to achieve is to put an end to austerity measures and negotiate a new agreement that will have a different name than the much-loathed “memorandum.” By Philip Chrysopoulos – GreekReporter.com
Aegean resumes flights to Cairo Aegean has resumed its direct flights from Athens to Cairo after a three-year break, with three weekly schedules that started on Sunday. The flights, operated every Wednesday, Friday and Sunday on board a 168-seat Airbus A320 will be for the winter season until March 28, 2015, with more flights to be announced for next summer to accommodate the increased business and holiday travel. Aegean has already added nine new international destinations in its current flight programme, making the resumption of direct flights to the Egyptian capital its tenth.
October 29 - Νovember 4, 2014
24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com
8 stocks that hurt investor prospects This past week was another of serious recovery for the broad stock market. The S&P 500 rallied 4.1% and ended up a sharp 7.9% from the lows put in during the selling madness of the prior week. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended up 2.6% on the week and was 6% higher than the selling climax lows of the prior week. All that considered, earnings season has not exactly been a boom for all major companies. Some of them had news out that very likely changed their fortunes for the worse - perhaps much, much worse. 24/7 Wall St. has tracked eight stocks that may have literally destroyed the near-term future for their stocks and for their investors. Amazon.com - Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) took the cake with an 8.3% loss to $287.07 on Friday. The stock hit a 52-week low of $284 after the online seller of everything reported earnings on Thursday of -$0.95 per share and $20.58 bln in revenue, against consensus estimates of -$0.74 in earnings per share and $20.84 in revenue. Jeff Bezos then gave fourth-quarter guidance of loss of $570 mln to earnings of $430 mln, as well as $27.3 bln to $30.3 bln in revenue. Investors say Bezos has been treating Amazon like a charitable institution rather than a business and playing a game of chicken with investors and valuations for too long. This company is now about 20 years old and has been public since the 1990s. With a $130 bln valuation, it cannot keep trading with loss valuations and being valued at “more than 150-times next year’s earnings” forever. Cabela - Cabela’s Inc. (NYSE: CAB) reported earnings of $0.81 per share on $886.0 mln in revenue. That was against consensus estimates of $0.86 in EPS and $926.5 mln in revenue. For 2014, the company lowered its guidance to $3.103.20 in EPS, compared to consensus estimates of $3.51. Following this news, the stock closed down 15% to $49.31 on Thursday and since closed Friday at $49.37. Shares took this dramatic plunge due to a severely weakened guidance on the full year, attributed to the petering out of firearm sales. Cree - Cree Inc. (NASDAQ: CREE) is supposed to be an LED trend leader. It reported EPS on Tuesday of $0.24 per share and
By Jon C. Ogg and Chris Lange
$427.7 mln in revenue, versus consensus estimates of $0.36 in EPS and revenue of $432.1 mln. Cree gave guidance for the next quarter for earnings of $0.20-0.24 per share, and $400-420 mln in revenue. That compares to consensus analyst estimates of $0.24 in earnings per share and $419.18 mln in revenue. Following this news, the stock closed down over 17% to $27.28 on Wednesday but ended Friday at $29.67. Shares managed to bounce almost $2.50 from the lows of the week, but long gone are those old calls from analysts predicting this stock will go above $50, $60, and into the stratosphere. IBM - International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) took the cake last week, destroying itself with an early Monday surprise that its earnings stank up the joint. It even abandoned its ambitions of $20.00 in EPS by the end of 2015. Investors have certainly had enough as the stock faces lower margins and a declining backlog as well. IBM reported earnings of $3.68 per share and $22.4 bln in revenue, against consensus estimates of $4.32 in EPS and $23.37 bln in revenue. Following this news, the stock closed down about 7% to $169.10 on Monday after closing the previous Friday at $182.05. Despite the market recovery, IBM kept drifting lower and closed the week out at $162.08. Ocwen Financial - Ocwen Financial Corp. (NYSE: OCN) was wrecked last week for allegedly backdating foreclosure letters. When news broke, the company released a statement detailing a software error that had been the root problem and that it was being addressed. How will the public model this risk when New York regulators said that this could potentially cover hundreds of thousands of borrowers? Ocwen’s investors decided to shoot first and ask questions later. Moody’s downgraded Ocwen on the news with credit risks ahead. This was a $26 stock last Monday. Following the news, the stock closed down over 25% to $19.04, and the stock closed down $0.24 at $19.27 on Friday.
Pandora Media - Pandora Media Inc. (NYSE: P) opened up the sins of the world again, for investors this time. The online music service reported earnings on Thursday of $0.09 per share and $239.6 mln in revenue. For 2014, the company gave guidance of $0.19 to $0.21 in EPS and $912-917 mln in revenue, which compares to consensus estimates of $0.18 EPS and $911.58 mln in revenue. Prior to the drop, this valued Pandora at over 100 times earnings for 2014 and almost 50 times expected 2015 earnings. The stock fell to a new 52-week low of $19.35 on Friday, before closing down 13.5% at $20.00. Now that Pandora’s shares have been cut in half, that is a sting that will burn many investors, potentially for years to come, even if the stock recovers from the current lows. 3D Systems - 3D Systems Corp. (NYSE: DDD) did not formally release earnings, but on Wednesday it lowered guidance to $0.16 to $0.19 in EPS and $164 mln to $169 mln in revenue. This was against consensus estimates of $0.21 in EPS and revenue of $186 mln. For the full year, the company gave guidance in earnings of $0.70 to $0.80 per share, as well as $650 mln to $690 mln in revenue. What investors have to come realise is that they just bid up the promises for 3D printing growth far too high. Bubbles happen, and the 3D printing bubble valuation has come and gone. 3D Systems closed down almost 12% to $36.67 on Wednesday, after closing the previous Friday at $41.55. This Friday’s close was $37.07. Yelp - Yelp Inc. (NYSE: YELP) may have seen its name unofficially changed to “Whimper”. The reviews site reported EPS on Wednesday of $0.05 on $102.5 mln in revenue. For 2014, the company gave guidance of $375-376 mln in revenue, compared to consensus estimates of $0.09 in EPS and $375.2 mln in revenue. A search algorithm change in Google was a culprit, but what if Google decided to have this service on its own or to limit Yelp from search? Following Yelp’s earnings news, the stock closed down almost 15% to $57.17 on Thursday since the close the previous Friday at $67.09. This Friday’s close included a recovery of nearly 4% to $59.42 as analysts may have provided support, against a 52-week trading range of $49.11 to $101.75. The problem is that Yelp has to blow out estimates because it is valued at almost 500 times this year’s expected earnings and at 150 times next year’s expected earnings.
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