Financial Mirror 2015 02 04

FinancialMirror MARTIN FELDSTEIN

JEAN PISANI-FERRY

The Eurozone needs more than QE - PAGE

The ECB, its critics, QE and price stability - PAGE 24

21

Issue No. 1120 â‚Ź1.00 February 4 - 10, 2015

What is Plan B for Greece?

BY KENNETH ROGOFF - PAGE 4

A Greek morality tale

BY JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ - PAGE 5

Joschka Fischer: A Greek burial for German austerity - PAGE 6

A tale of Apple proportions

By Oren Laurent PAGE 18

February 4 - 10, 2015

2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

FinancialMirror Published every Wednesday by Financial Mirror Ltd.

Getting ever closer to the edge EDITORIAL

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When Alexis Tsipras set his foot in Cyprus on Monday he was greeted with open arms by the usual crowd of rent-a-mob progressive supporters and other parochial diehards, all screaming their adulation for this ‘saviour’ of Greek pride and dignity.

Tsipras is Greece’s version of our own Demetris Christofias, but with far more charisma, an inspiring new-look presence and greatly improved oratory skills – a bit like Christofias on ‘speed’ and with a better taylor.

Of course, all the drama and nationalistic antiTroika, anti-EU demagoguery we are witnessing will come to nought. Pride and dignity cannot be banked, they don’t pay bills or debts and they don’t put food on the table.

Reneging on bailout agreements, which is clearly what the new Greek government intends to do, judging by its belligerent statements, could only lead to one outcome: state bankruptcy followed by a rollercoaster of immediate exit from the Euro currency, value of assets, bank deposits and investments slashed by some 50% overnight, capital flight (if any is left).

Frozen out of money and capital markets, Greece could be treated as a pariah for years by foreign creditors and investors, mass unemployment far worse than it is now, with

Greece’s debt position far worse and probably uncorrectable for many years.

Meanwhile, the mischief-making opposition parties in Cyprus want to follow suit as do many illinformed citizens.

It is all oh-so-easy while drunk on nationalistic pride and dignity and suffering from delusions of grandeur to ignore the harsh realities of sovereign debt default or to imagine that they have the power to browbeat the Troika and the EU into agreeing to a huge cut in Cyprus’s bailout debt.

The island’s opposition MPs (generously paid by taxpayers) have been acting more like bolshie 15-year olds who imagine that talking big and tough in a school debating society somehow means that the Education Minister (who holds the purse strings) is going to cave in and give them all longer holidays, a free i-Pad, a free trip to Disneyland and so on. Pride and dignity have become the methamphetamine of the ignorant masses in Greece and Cyprus, cynically fuelled and manipulated by shameless child-like populist politicians whose only priority is re-election, no matter how reckless their actions in achieving it.

Beware the old saying: pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.

Greece’s new leaders and Cyprus’s opposition parties have got pride and arrogance by the bucket-load.

Greece may well end up flushing itself down the drain.

Is that a good reason for Cyprus to follow suit?

THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO

Bulls are back as CSE recovers above 80 The bulls returned to the Cyprus stock market with the general index recovering above 80 points on strong profits and dividends, prompting some brokers to forecast a target of 150 points over the next two years, while on the other hand investment companies were seen lagging in the newfound CSE recovery, according to the Financial Mirror issue 605, on January 26, 2005.

Bulls return: The equity market rally resumed its climb after a few days of consolidation with the CSE

20 YEARS AGO

Amex to start, Wardley renamed HSBC American Express is considering opening an exchange bureau to exchange travellers’ cheques, accept foreign currency and take care of foreign clients; Wardley is changing its name to HSBC Investment Bank; and, leaders hailed a decision to start EU accession talks within 1996, according to the Cyprus Financial Mirror issue 96, on February 1, 1995.

AmEx in town: American Express plans to open

GENX index roaring above the 80 points level. Broker Costas Hadjigavriel said that this level would soon become history and a sharp rebound in profitability is likely to lead prices higher, while Polys Polykarpou was equally bullish predicting the index will hit a target of 150 points within the nest two years.

Inv co’s lag: The combined assets of the 24 approved investment companies listed on the CSE fell by 1.33% in the fourth quarter to CYP 208 mln, from 210 mln at the end of September and 230 mln at the end of March the previous year, with cash balances pushing the NAV further down. Best performers included Dodoni and Apollo with a 2% rise in NAV, with Demetra the worst as its NAV fell 4% in the fourth quarter.

Ecofin OK: Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said he was satisfied with the EU Finance Ministers (Ecofin) conclusion that Cyprus has carried out all effective actions to purify its public finances and that it has implemented all measures included in its revised convergence programme.

Shacolas airports bid: The government is in the final stage of awarding the island’s biggest infrastructure project to a private consortium led by the Shacolas group for the construction and management of the Larnaca airport and the upgrading of Paphos airport. Hermes comprises CTC, Charilaos Apostolides, Egis Projects and Iacovou Brothers, as well as Aer Rianta, and French Bouygues. The investment will reach CYP 200 mln and the state will rake in CYP 40 mln a year from the 33% projected share of revenues.

an exchange bureau due to popular demand, mostly from foreign clients, according to Territory Manager Soteris Soteriou. The brand was first introduced to Cyprus in 1925 by AL Mantovani and Sons, and since 1968 when it appointed the first merchant, the network of outlets has reached 3,500.

Wardley is HSBC: Wardley Cyprus, the offshore banking unit (OBU) owned by the HSBC Group has changed its name to HSBC Investment Bank Cyprus as part of a global process to create a unified brand, said Managing Director Takis Taoushanis. The bank is quite active locally as well, providing over $80 mln in loans to Cypriot entities and recently concluded a

$70 mln medium term loan facility to the government.

EU invitation: The government and most of the political parties and professional bodies applauded the EU Foreign Ministers agreement in Brussels to start accession talks with Cyprus “no later than six months” after the conclusion of the 1996 intergovernmental conference to review the Maastricht treaty.

Lombard Natwest profits: Lombard Natwest Bank reported a record 177% rise in profits rising to CYP 1.65 mln for the financial year ended September 1994, with deposits up 24% to CYP 118 mln and loans up 32% at CYP 86 mln. Total assets increased to CYP 160 mln, said Chairman Michalis Colocassides

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February 4 - 10, 2015

financialmirror.com | NEWS | 3

HB lists 87m new shares, opts for stock split Hellenic Bank, the recently recapitalised lender that boasts Daniel Loeb’s Third Point Hellenic Recovery Fund and online game developers Wargaming.net among its major shareholders, has decided to proceed with a 50:1 reverse stock split, reducing the number of shares listed on the Cyprus Stock Exchange from 9.4 bln shares to 187 mln.

Traditionally the island’s third biggest lender, prior to the collapse of Laiki Popular Bank in 2013, Hellenic has transformed itself from a conservative bank to “a very different and stronger bank with robust capital base and liquidity”, using its own words.

The board decided on Monday to restructure the share capital of the bank through a reverse stock split, as well as a

remuneration package for executive officers, including CEO Bert Pijls. Only last week, the bank listed 87.4 mln new shares that emerged from the unexercised rights which had not been covered by the issue last November, that wil probably be used as part of the share remuneration scheme.

In all, the bank raised a further 204 mln euros from its recent capital share increase, covering 92% of the target set, in addition to the 100 mln raised from Third Point, Wargaming and local investment fund Demetra in early 2014 that rescued the bank from a state-sponsored bailout or bailin of depositors. With the completion of its share capital increase, the bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 ratio presently stands at 12.8%.

23,600 in 2013, down 16% in 5 years PPP at €2 Per capita income in purchasing power parities (PPP) was 23,600 euros in 2013, the Ministry of Finance said in an announcement. According to Eurostat’s revised data for National Accounts, GDP per capita of Cyprus in purchasing power terms in 2013 amounted to 23,600 euros, or 89% of the EU28 average and 83% of the Eurozone average.

According to the same figures, in Greece, the GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power was lower at 19,300 euros, or 73% of the EU28 average and 67% of the Eurozone average.”

In real terms, the GDP per capita of Cyprus decreased cumulatively by 15.8% in 2008-2013, the Finance Ministry statement said, adding that this was the second largest decline in real GDP per capita, after Greece, which fell 28.9% over the same period.

Compared to other EU member states that have been subjected to an economic adjustment programme, in the same period of 2008-2013, the GDP per capita in real terms

in Portugal fell cumulatively by 6.5%, while in Ireland by 11%, the Ministry announcement said.

Ending with a note of optimism, the announcement said that “from the second quarter of 2013, the Cyprus economy has seen signs of recovery.”

13-week T-Bills yield 2.96% The government accepted bids worth 125 mln euros for its 13-week Treasury Bills during an auction on Tuesday, with an average yield of 2.96%.

The Public Debt Management Office at the Ministry of Finance said that the auction was oversubscribed 1.67 times as it had received a total of 209 mln euros of bids, of which 175.7 mln euros were competitive offers and 33.2 mln uncompetitive, with an average weighted yield of 3.11% (2.75% - 3.50%).

The T-Bills will be listed on the Cyprus Stock Exchange on Friday, February 6.

The next auctions, according to the PDMO, are: 3/3: 13-week T-Bills; 2/4: 13-week T-Bills; 15/4: 30-day T-Bills; 5/5: 13-week T-Bills; 14/5: 30-day T-Bills; 2/6: 13week T-Bills; 9/6: 26-week T-Bills; 12/6: 30-day T-Bills.

February 4 - 10, 2015

4 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

What is Plan B for Greece?

By Kenneth Rogoff Financial markets have greeted the election of Greece’s new far-left government in predictable fashion. But, though the Syriza party’s victory sent Greek equities and bonds plummeting, there is little sign of contagion to other distressed countries on the eurozone periphery. Spanish ten-year bonds, for example, are still trading at interest rates below US Treasuries. The question is how long this relative calm will prevail.

Greece’s fire-breathing new government, it is generally assumed, will have little choice but to stick to its predecessor’s programme of structural reform, perhaps in return for a modest relaxation of fiscal austerity.

Nonetheless, the political, social, and economic dimensions of Syriza’s victory are too significant to be ignored. Indeed, it is impossible to rule out completely a hard Greek exit from the euro (“Grexit”), much less capital controls that effectively make a euro inside Greece worth less elsewhere.

Some eurozone policymakers seem to be confident that a Greek exit from the euro, hard or soft, will no longer pose a threat to the other periphery countries. They might be right; then again, back in 2008, US policymakers thought that the collapse of one investment house, Bear Stearns, had prepared markets for the bankruptcy of

another, Lehman Brothers. We know how that turned out.

True, there have been some important policy and institutional advances since early 2010, when the Greek crisis first began to unfold. The new banking union, however imperfect, and the European Central Bank’s vow to save the euro by doing “whatever it takes,” are essential to sustaining the monetary union. Another crucial innovation has been the development of the European Stability Mechanism, which, like the International Monetary Fund, has the capacity to execute vast financial bailouts, subject to conditionality.

And yet, even with these new institutional backstops, the global financial risks of Greece’s instability remain profound. It is not hard to imagine Greece’s brash new leaders underestimating Germany’s intransigence on debt relief or renegotiation of structural-reform packages. It is also not hard to imagine Eurocrats miscalculating political dynamics in Greece.

In any scenario, most of the burden of adjustment will fall on Greece. Any profligate country that is suddenly forced to live within its means has a huge adjustment to make, even if all of its past debts are forgiven. And Greece’s profligacy was epic. In the run-up to its debt crisis in 2010, the government’s primary budget deficit (the amount by which government expenditure on goods and services exceeds revenues, excluding interest payments on its debt) was equivalent to an astonishing 10% of national income.

Once the crisis erupted and Greece lost access to new private lending, the “troika” (the IMF, the ECB, and the European

Commission) provided massively subsidised long-term financing. But even if Greece’s debt had been completely wiped out, going from a primary deficit of 10% of GDP to a balanced budget requires massive belt tightening – and, inevitably, recession.

Germans have a point when they argue that complaints about “austerity” ought to be directed at Greece’s previous governments.

These governments’ excesses lifted Greek consumption far above a sustainable level; a fall to earth was unavoidable.

Nonetheless, Europe needs to be much more generous in permanently writing down debt and, even more urgently, in reducing short-term repayment flows. The first is necessary to reduce long-term uncertainty; the second is essential to facilitate near-term growth.

Let’s face it: Greece’s bind today is hardly all of its own making. (Greece’s young people – who now often take a couple of extra years to complete college, because their teachers are so often on strike – certainly did not cause it.)

First and foremost, the eurozone countries’ decision to admit Greece to the single currency in 2002 was woefully irresponsible, with French advocacy deserving much of the blame. Back then, Greece conspicuously failed to meet a plethora of basic convergence criteria, owing to its massive debt and its relative economic and political backwardness.

Second, much of the financing for Greece’s debts came from German and French banks that earned huge profits by intermediating loans from their own countries and from Asia. They poured this

money into a fragile state whose fiscal credibility ultimately rested on being bailed out by other euro members.

Third, Greece’s eurozone partners wield a massive stick that is typically absent in sovereign-debt negotiations. If Greece does not accept the conditions imposed on it to maintain its membership in the single currency, it risks being thrown out of the European Union altogether.

Even after two bailout packages, it is unrealistic to expect Greek taxpayers to start making large repayments anytime soon – not with unemployment at 25% (and above 50% for young people). Germany and other hawkish northern Europeans are right to insist that Greece adhere to its commitments on structural reform, so that economic convergence with the rest of the eurozone can occur one day. But they ought to be making even deeper concessions on debt repayments, where the overhang still creates considerable policy uncertainty for investors.

If concessions to Greece create a precedent that other countries might exploit, so be it. Sooner rather than later, other periphery countries will also need help.

Greece, one hopes, will not be forced to leave the eurozone, though temporary options such as imposing capital controls may ultimately prove necessary to prevent a financial meltdown. The eurozone must continue to bend, if it is not to break.

Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist of the IMF, is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University. © Project Syndicate, 201 www.project-syndicate.org

Cyprus will test Greek-Turkish relations, building bridges to Russia The Cyprus problem is a key litmus test for Greek-Turkish relations, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said in Nicosia on Monday on his first state just eight days after his sweeping election victory.

The charismatic leader of the anti-austerity Syriza leftist party also said that the Greek world needs to regain its international credibility by maintaining strong ties with European partners and, perhaps, contributing to building new bridges between the EU and Russia.

Tsipras rejected the notion of direct aid from Moscow, saying instead that “we are in substantial negotiations with our partners in Europe and our lenders.

We have obligations towards them,” he added in an obvious effort to appease growing concerns among western European economies that Greece may default on its debts and head out of the eurozone, known as a “Grexit”.

But he also voiced a tough stance on eastern neighbour Turkey that is challenging the maritime territory of Cyprus and has set its sights on offshore oil and gas resources in the eastern Mediterranean. Tsipras said that the ventures of the Turkish survey vessel Barbaros within the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone “is a clear violation if international law and undermines the (peace) talks that must resume.”

The Greek Prime Minister said there is a need to resume “a substantial dialogue that

will lead to a substantial conclusion, once the problem with the Cyprus Republic’s EEZ is resolved,” adding that the hydrocarbon resources will be to the benefit of all the island’ inhabitants.

Host President Nicos Anastasiades said that the Greece reiterated its commitment to Cyprus and that through “an open and honest dialogue, we emphasized that the strategic aim is the solution of the Cyprus problem the soonest possible, based on fundamental principles.”

Anastasiades added that the relations between Turkey and Greece pass through Cyprus.

Tsipras, too, emphasised the high level of

cooperation between the two governments and said that the sustainable solution to the Cyprus problem is a litmus test for GrecoTurkish relations, but also for the troubled region.

“For the new Greek government the effort for a fair solution of the Cyprus issue is a priority and we will support this effort,” Tsipras noted. “I hope the new beginning of the new Greek government will be combined with the need of Hellenism to gain a voice and power to reclaim its rights,” he added.

Looking further north, Tsipras said he discussed with President Anastasiades the need for a coordinated stance for a “bridge of peace and cooperation between Europe and

Russia.” He also ruled out his country leaving the euro, saying anyone who believed small euro zone states like Greece and Cyprus were not essential in the bloc would be disproven.

Tsipras repeated previous statements that the unified body of the Troika of international lenders (EU, ECB, IMF) and their inspectors who review the economic adjustment programmes in bailed out countries, needs to be replaced with direct reviews by European bodies, a suggestion that European Commission head Jean Claude Juncker also hinted to over the weekend.

Tsipras, who will head off to meet other EU heads of state throughout this week, as his lieutenants also hold strategic talks with their counterparts in other European capitals, driving home the concept that the austeritydriven bailout programmes have failed and that states should turn to growth-driven strategies that will boost output, employment and household revenues.

He concluded his Cyprus visit with briefings by party leaders and civil society groups, the Archbishop and Cyprus and an address to parliament late on Monday, prior to an official banquet. On Tuesday, he visited the Greek armed forces brigade on the island (ELDYK) and embarked on his next stop on a visit to Italy to meet with Prime Minister Mateo Renzi, a young centre-left leader thought to be among those most sympathetic to calls for leniency on Greek debt repayment.

February 4 - 10, 2015

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 5

A Greek morality tale

By Joseph E. Stiglitz When the euro crisis began a half-decade ago, Keynesian economists predicted that the austerity that was being imposed on Greece and the other crisis countries would fail. It would stifle growth and increase unemployment – and even fail to decrease the debt-to-GDP ratio. Others – in the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and a few universities – talked of expansionary contractions. But even the International Monetary Fund argued that contractions, such as cutbacks in government spending, were just that – contractionary.

We hardly needed another test. Austerity had failed repeatedly, from its early use under US President Herbert Hoover, which turned the stock-market crash into the Great Depression, to the IMF “programmes” imposed on East Asia and Latin America in recent decades. And yet when Greece got into trouble, it was tried again.

Greece largely succeeded in following the dictate set by the “troika” (the European Commission the ECB, and the IMF): it converted a primary budget deficit into a primary surplus. But the contraction in government spending has been predictably devastating: 25% unemployment, a 22% fall in GDP since 2009, and a 35% increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. And now, with the antiausterity Syriza party’s overwhelming election victory, Greek voters have declared that they have had enough.

So, what is to be done? First, let us be clear: Greece could be blamed for its troubles if it were the only country where the troika’s medicine failed miserably. But Spain had a surplus and a low debt ratio before the crisis, and it, too, is in depression. What is needed is not structural reform within Greece and Spain so much as structural reform of the eurozone’s design and a fundamental rethinking of the policy frameworks that have resulted in the monetary union’s spectacularly bad performance.

Greece has also once again reminded us of how badly the world needs a debtrestructuring framework. Excessive debt caused not only the 2008 crisis, but also the East Asia crisis in the 1990s and the Latin American crisis in the 1980s. It continues to cause untold suffering in the US, where millions of homeowners have lost their homes, and is now threatening millions more in Poland and elsewhere who took out loans in Swiss francs.

Given the amount of distress brought about by excessive debt, one might well ask why individuals and countries have repeatedly put themselves into this situation. After all, such debts are contracts – that is, voluntary agreements – so creditors are just as responsible for them as debtors. In fact, creditors arguably are more responsible: typically, they are sophisticated financial institutions, whereas borrowers frequently are far less attuned to market vicissitudes and the risks associated with different contractual arrangements. Indeed, we know that US banks actually preyed on their borrowers, taking advantage of their lack of financial sophistication.

Every (advanced) country has realised that making capitalism work requires giving individuals a fresh start. The debtors’ prisons of the 19th century were a failure – inhumane and not exactly helping to ensure repayment.

What did help was to provide better incentives for good lending, by making creditors more responsible for the consequences of their decisions.

At the international level, we have not yet created an orderly process for giving countries a fresh start. Since even before the 2008 crisis, the United Nations, with the support of almost all of the developing and emerging countries, has been seeking to create such a framework.

But the US has been adamantly opposed; perhaps it wants to reinstitute debtor prisons for over indebted countries’ officials (if so, space may be opening up at Guantanamo Bay).

The idea of bringing back debtors’ prisons may seem far-fetched, but it resonates with current talk of moral hazard and accountability. There is a fear that if Greece is allowed to restructure its debt, it will simply

get itself into trouble again, as will others.

This is sheer nonsense. Does anyone in their right mind think that any country would willingly put itself through what Greece has gone through, just to get a free ride from its creditors? If there is a moral hazard, it is on the part of the lenders – especially in the private sector – who have been bailed out repeatedly.

If Europe has allowed these debts to move from the private sector to the public sector – a well-established pattern over the past halfcentury – it is Europe, not Greece, that should bear the consequences. Indeed, Greece’s current plight, including the massive run-up in the debt ratio, is largely the fault of the misguided troika programmes foisted on it.

So it is not debt restructuring, but its absence, that is “immoral.” There is nothing particularly special about the dilemmas that Greece faces today; many countries have been in the same position. What makes Greece’s problems more difficult to address is the structure of the eurozone: monetary union implies that member states cannot devalue their way out of trouble, yet the modicum of European solidarity that must accompany this loss of policy flexibility simply is not there.

Seventy years ago, at the end of World II, the Allies recognised that Germany must be given a fresh start. They understood that Hitler’s rise had much to do with the unemployment (not the inflation) that resulted from imposing more debt on Germany at the end of World War I. The Allies did not take into account the foolishness with

which the debts had been accumulated or talk about the costs that Germany had imposed on others. Instead, they not only forgave the debts; they actually provided aid, and the Allied troops stationed in Germany provided a further fiscal stimulus.

When companies go bankrupt, a debtequity swap is a fair and efficient solution. The analogous approach for Greece is to convert its current bonds into GDP-linked bonds. If Greece does well, its creditors will receive more of their money; if it does not, they will get less.

Both sides would then have a powerful incentive to pursue pro-growth policies.

Seldom do democratic elections give as clear a message as that in Greece. If Europe says no to Greek voters’ demand for a change of course, it is saying that democracy is of no importance, at least when it comes to economics. Why not just shut down democracy, as Newfoundland effectively did when it entered into receivership before World War II? One hopes that those who understand the economics of debt and austerity, and who believe in democracy and humane values, will prevail. Whether they will, remains to be seen.

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University. His most recent book, co-authored with Bruce Greenwald, is Creating a Learning Society: A New Approach to Growth, Development, and Social Progress. © Project Syndicate, 2015. www.project-syndicate.org

Hopes of debt write-off dwindle, as Varoufakis tries to convince The new Greek government plans to end a standoff with its creditors by swapping its outstanding debt for growth-linked bonds, Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said in London on Monday during a visit to reassure private investors that he was not seeking a showdown with Brussels over a new debt agreement. The proposals, which include a pledge to reform the economy, contrast sharply with calls last week to ditch the tough austerity measures imposed under the existing bailout.

Varoufakis called his plan a “menu of debt swaps” that meant Athens would no longer call for a write-off of Greece’s 315 bln euros of foreign debt, the Financial Times reported.

The menu would include two types of new bonds: one indexed to nominal economic growth, and one he called “perpetual bonds” to replace ECB-owned Greek bonds.

“We are putting together a combination of a primary budget surplus, and a reform agenda,” Varoufakis told the newspaper.

“I’ll say, ‘Help us to reform our country and give us some fiscal space to do this, otherwise we shall continue to suffocate and become a

deformed rather than a reformed Greece’.”

It was not clear whether the debt swap proposals would be accepted by European paymaster Germany, which opposes softening the terms, with its Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble saying earlier that Berlin would not accept any unilateral changes to Greece’s debt programme.

Athens also planned to target wealthy taxevaders and post primary budget surpluses of 1 to 1.5% of gross domestic product, Varoufakis told the FT, even if it meant his party, Syriza, could not fulfill all the spending promises on which it was elected.

In a statement released by the Finance Ministry in Athens on Tuesday, Varoufakis said the government’s aim was to pull the country out of “debt serfdom.”

Varoufakis, an outspoken economist who has likened EU austerity policies to “waterboarding”, began his European tour over the weekend in Paris, where the centreleft government is thought to be more sympathetic than others to the case for relaxing lending conditions.

He then moved to London to meet

investors whose confidence is crucial, saying he was not in “a kind of Wild West showdown” with the EU, but aimed to strike a mutually beneficial deal to minimise the cost of the crisis for the average European.

Varoufakis met about 100 banks and financial institutions in London. An organiser said one of the meetings had to be moved from an upmarket London members’ club, because Varoufakis wouldn’t wear a tie.

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February 4 - 10, 2015

6 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

A Greek burial for German austerity

By Joschka Fischer Not long ago, German politicians and journalists confidently declared that the euro crisis was over; Germany and the European Union, they believed, had weathered the storm.

Today, we know that this was just another mistake in an ongoing crisis that has been full of them. The latest error, as with most of the earlier ones, stemmed from wishful thinking – and, once again, it is Greece that has broken the reverie.

Even before the leftist Syriza party’s overwhelming victory in the recent general election, it was obvious that, far from being over, the crisis was threatening to worsen. Austerity – the policy of saving your way out of a demand shortfall – simply does not work. In a shrinking economy, a country’s debt-toGDP ratio rises rather than falls, and Europe’s recession-ridden crisis countries have now saved themselves into a depression, resulting in mass unemployment, alarming levels of poverty, and scant hope.

Warnings of a severe political backlash went unheeded.

Shadowed by Germany’s deep-seated inflation taboo, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government stubbornly insisted that the pain of austerity was essential to economic recovery; the EU had little choice but to go along. Now, with Greece’s voters having driven out their country’s exhausted and corrupt elite in favour of a party that has vowed to end austerity, the backlash has arrived.

But, though Syriza’s victory may mark the start of the next chapter in the euro crisis, the political – and possibly existential – danger that Europe faces runs deeper. The Swiss National Bank’s unexpected abandonment of the franc’s euro peg on January 15, though posing no immediate financial threat, was an enormous psychological blow, one that reflected and reinforced a massive loss of confidence. The euro, as the SNB’s move implied, remains as fragile as ever. And the subsequent decision by the European Central Bank to purchase more than 1 trillion euros in eurozone governments’ bonds, though correct and necessary, has dimmed confidence further.

The Greek election outcome was foreseeable for more than a year. If negotiations between the “troika” (the European Commission, the ECB, and the International Monetary Fund) and the new Greek government succeed, the result will be a face-saving compromise for both sides; if no agreement is

reached, Greece will default.

Though no one can say what a Greek default would mean for the euro, it would certainly entail risks to the currency’s continued existence. Just as surely, the mega-disaster that might result from a eurozone breakup would not spare Germany.

A compromise would de facto result in a loosening of austerity, which entails significant domestic risks for Merkel (though less than a failure of the euro would). But, in view of her immense popularity at home, including within her own party, Chancellor Merkel is underestimating the options at her disposal. She could do much more, if only she trusted herself.

In the end, she may have no choice. Given the impact of the Greek election outcome on political developments in Spain, Italy, and France, where anti-austerity sentiment is similarly running high, political pressure on the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers – from both the right and the left – will increase significantly. It does not take a prophet to predict that the latest chapter of the euro crisis will leave Germany’s austerity policy in tatters – unless Merkel really wants to take the enormous risk of letting the euro fail.

There is no indication that she does. So, regardless of which side – the troika or the new Greek government – moves first in the coming negotiations, Greece’s election has already produced an unambiguous defeat for Merkel and her austeritybased strategy for sustaining the euro. Simultaneous debt reduction and structural reforms, we now know, will overextend any democratically elected government because they overtax its voters. And, without growth, there will be no

structural reforms, either, however necessary they may be.

That is Greece’s lesson for Europe. The question now is not whether the German government will accept it, but when. Will it take a similar debacle for Spain’s conservatives in that country’s coming election to force Merkel to come to terms with reality?

Nothing but growth will decide the future of the euro. Even Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, faces an enormous need for infrastructure investment. If its government stopped seeing “zero new debt” as the Holy Grail, and instead invested in modernising the country’s transport, municipal infrastructure, and digitisation of households and industry, the euro – and Europe – would receive a mighty boost. Moreover, a massive public-investment programme could be financed at exceptionally low (and, for Germany, conceivably even negative) interest rates.

The eurozone’s cohesion and the success of its necessary structural reforms – and thus its very survival – now depend on whether it can overcome its growth deficit. Germany has room for fiscal maneuver. The message from Greece’s election is that Merkel should use it, before it is too late.

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005. He entered politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

Tsipras’ challenge is a generation clash as well

By Dr. Jim Leontiades Cyprus International Institute of Management For the first time, a member of the Euro countries receiving financial aid from the Euro group has openly challenged the conditions it had agreed to. Alexis Tsipras, the new prime minister of Greece, has refused even talk to the Troika technocrats implementing the Greek bail out. His challenge brings into question not only the Greek bail out programme but even the power and methods of the Euro group, its governing body.

For the Euro group, Mr. Tsipras’ initial demands appear outrageous. Not only does he challenge the financial conditions Greece agreed to, he has also taken action to stop and reverse promises made by the previous Greek government to restructure the Greek economy. Tsipras announced before and after his election his intent to stop privatisation, increase pensions, increase the minimum wage and raise the number of workers in public sector. These measures would halt and reverse the restructuring measures which the Euro group believes are necessary to make countries receiving its financial assistance competitive once again. Otherwise, what is to prevent them from requiring more financial assistance in the future?

Of course, the money owed by Greece to its creditors is also important. The Euro group politicians who have agreed to the

Greek loans are ultimately accountable to their electorate. Can the leaders of France, Germany, etc., really return to their constituencies and say that the money (their tax money) that they loaned to Greece will not be repaid in full?

From the Greek point of view, endless austerity was not why they had joined the group. Austerity has proved a failure. No country can be expected to endure financial misery and unemployment levels of 26% year after year with the so little evidence of improvement.

FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS The stage is set for a momentous head to head encounter.

We have here a clash not only of issues but also generations, cultures and styles. One can’t help sympathising with the charismatic young leader of Syriza. Youth confronts the grumpy priests of austerity which comprise the Eurogroup.

Even Syriza’s newly appointed ministers give the appearance of students who have overstayed their time at university.

The Euro group will likely offer some limited accommodation regarding the payment schedule for their loans to Greece, extending and softening the terms of repayment. But there is likely to be little or no flexibility on the essence of the “restructuring” part of the programme. Allowing Tsipras’ party to abandon these measures would strike at the very philosophy underlying such change. It is not just a question of competitiveness but of developing a Eurozone comprised of countries that are “European” in outlook and economic development.

In their future negotiations, the Euro group will be careful not to play the role of the big bully pressuring little Greece.

They don’t need to. In a matter of months, Greece will need

additional funds to pay the pensioners, public servants and others who voted for Tsipras. Greece is effectively shut out of international financial markets. Money is flowing out of Greek banks. Eleven billion Euros of deposits is estimated by some to have left Greek banks just in January seeking safe havens.

The European Central Bank, as the sole remaining source of funds, controls the financial lifeline of the Greek government. It has only to gradually and gently to reduce payments to implement a financial squeeze that the new Greek government would find it hard to resist. If Tsipras has a plan for finding the necessary funds and avoiding such a financial squeeze it is not evident.

OUR OWN POLITICIANS Our own politicians have not been slow to latch on to the Tsipras bandwagon. Even before the Greek elections, there have been long standing demands by a number of Cypriot political parties to reject the troika and its demands. As with Tsipras, these parties have been much less specific on what would happen if, in response, the European Central Bank cuts off the financial flow of funds it supplies to Cyprus.

Where would Cyprus find the money to finance government spending for the public sector workers, military, hospitals, etc.?

Few (as in nil) answers have been forthcoming. These politicians will be eagerly watching to see if Tsipras has arrived at some magic formula that everyone else has overlooked.

Some insight as to what his strategy might be will be provided by developments in Greece over the next few months. These will be watched carefully. The stakes are high. A Grexit would be a disaster for both sides. We are in for an interesting time.

February 4 - 10, 2015

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7

Europe needs a hegemonic Germany

By Yanis Varoufakis MINISTER OF FINANCE

For six decades, Germany was being pampered by a hegemonic America that oversaw the write-off of its wartime debts, the reversal of Allied designs to de-industrialise it and, above all else, the constant generation of the global demand which allowed German manufacturers to concentrate on efficiently producing quality, desirable wares.

Having taken all this for granted for too long, Germany’s elites are now finding it conceptually difficult to come to terms with the new ‘normal’: - A world in which sufficient aggregate demand is no longer maintainable by the United States, or any other single bloc, and in which Germany can no longer take for granted the demand for its goods; - A world in which there is no room for a Eurozone that operates like an augmented Germany.

Germany’s disciplinarian imposition of the greatest austerity upon the weakest of Europeans, lacking any plan for countering the resulting asymmetrical recession, is a sorry and dangerous leftover of a long-gone world order built

by America. It is the result of a mental atrophy caused by a United States acting for too long as the over-protective parent. It will backfire with mathematical precision, causing higher debt-to-income ratios and lower economic dynamism throughout Europe. The time is, therefore, ripe for a Gestalt Shift from an authoritarian to a hegemonic Germany.

Europe needs a Germany ready and willing to make this shift and, indeed, so does Germany.

In a tweet six days after Syriza’s election victory, Prof. Varoufakis posted the following article, initially published in February 2013, “dedicated to journalists scurrilously portraying me as anti-German.”

But what would a hegemonic Germany do? It will be worried about something beyond fiscal rectitude and market reforms. It will know that a supply of high quality products does not automatically create its own demand. It will enthusiastically strive to engineer, as America did in the 1950s, a Pan-European Recovery Programme that restores demand for the goods that Europe needs.

Should Germany then try to emulate America? Germany does not have the capacity to do what the United States accomplished from 1980 to 2008; that is, to operate as a gigantic vacuum cleaner sucking into its territory other nations’ net exports, at the cost of ever expanding deficits.

Nor should German taxpayers be expected to reflate the bubbles that burst in 2008 (in their own banks, in and around the Greek state, in Irish and Spanish real estate markets, etc.). Burst bubbles should be allowed to remain… burst. But, meanwhile, a hegemonic Germany would find ways to channel the huge pools of stagnant savings into productive investments in the Periphery where they shall produce the incomes that must pay down debts and maintain the level of intra-European demand German companies need to remain competitive both within and without Europe.

In a sense, a hegemonic Germany will be playing the role that Washington did in the 1950s, adopting an activist policy to re-balance Europe’s economy through efficient surplus recycling. But how can this be achieved, when Germany cannot afford to unleash a Marshall Plan? What institutions

will this recycling require?

Two things are clear: Germany should not rely on the failed nexus between national governments and Brussels, which has been responsible for inefficient and corrupt uses of the EU’s structural funds. Also, it is futile to attempt moving in a federal direction, a move that Europe’s peoples are not ready for and whose glacial pace is certain to be outpaced by the galloping crisis. Is there a third way? Yes, there is.

Germany should take another leaf out of the New Dealers who put it on the road to recovery all those years ago: Europe needs its own New Deal, funded by a new class of public finance instruments. Germany can realise such a Recovery Programme centred around the European Investment Bank.

The EIB already has a proven track record of creating a liquid market for debt instruments that fund successful projects. In collaboration with, and supported by, the European Central Bank, an EIB-ECB partnership has the capacity to energise mountains of hitherto idle savings on pure banking principles, with minimal involvement of member-states and no need for Treaty changes.

All it will take is a German resolve to shift from panicky authoritarianism to a hegemonic, to an enlightened selfinterestedness.

Yanis Varoufakis is a former Professor of Economics at the University of Athens and presently Minister of Finance of Greece Twitter: @yanisvaroufakis

February 4 - 10, 2015

8 | NEWS | financialmirror.com

No out-of-court deal for €600 mln capital securities An out-of-court settlement for the nearly 600 mln euros worth of Laiki capital securities held by about 60,000 bondholders seems a highly unlikely outcome, even after members of the the Association of Capital Securities (ACS) met with President Nicos Anastasiades on Tuesday.

“The President’s efforts for an out of court settlement seem troublesome because the Bank of Cyprus stated (last week) that it could not consider a class settlement and that we would have to resort to a class action or individual lawsuits,” ACS President Phivos Mavrovouniotis said after the meeting at the Presidential Palace.

“So, even the compromise deal to be compensated for 47.5% in shares or offset the loans which were guaranteed by these securities also cannot be achieved,” he said.

Six judges have been appointed – two in Nicosia, two in Limassol, one in Paphos and

one in Larnaca – and they will review cases where the bondholders insist that they were duped into buying the bank securities.

“We are confident that that cases will be won and those who are responsible wil have to pay,” members of the association said.

During the meeting with President Anastasiades, the ACS also called for the Financial Commissioner’s role to be enhanced.

ACS spokesman lenotios Hadjivasilis clarified that the association’s members are a different case form the Laiki depositors’ association (SYKALA), which is why they want their loans to be offset for the value of their securities they lost when Laiki was shut down and handed over to Bank of Cyprus, while the latter underwent several waves of recapitalization where securities were wiped out.

Bank of Cyprus said last week that it could

Loans-to-deposits ratio widens in Dec 2014 The loans-to-deposits ratio of the island’s banking system widened in December, the first month that the Central Bank of Cyprus issued monetary statistics on the basis of the new regulations and the guideline of the European Central Bank.

The monthly Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) Loans and Deposits Statistics showed that total deposits in December 2014 rose EUR 138.1 mln, compared to a net increase of EUR 86.6 mln in November 2014, for a total of EUR 46.1 bln.

The year-on-year growth rate stood at -4.0% as compared with -4.4% y-o-y in November 2014.

Residents deposits, according to CBC data, rose in December by EUR 107.1 mln to 32.3 bln. Deposits of third countries residents also increased by EUR 4.1 mln to 11.8 bln. Deposits of residents of other EU member states rose by EUR 26.9 mln to 1.95 bln. Household deposits rose by EUR 329.6 mln to 22.3 bln, while corporate deposits fell by EUR 144.8 mln to 5.43 bln.

Total loans in December 2014 saw a net increase of EUR 505.3 mln, compared to a net increase of EUR 7.7 mln in November. The year-on-year growth rate stood at -1.4% as compared with -2.4% y-o-y in November 2014.

Residents loans grew in December by EUR 766.5 mln, totalling 49.6 bln, while loans to residents of EU member states dropped by EUR 390.9 mln to 3.1 bln.

Loans to third country residents increased by EUR 129.7 mln to 8.8 bln.

The outstanding amount of loans reached EUR 61.6 bln in December 2014, the central bank statistics said, with the amount of non-performing loans (NPLs) stubbornly at 51% of the system’s loanbook in November. Recent data suggested that so far only EUR 3.1 bln of NPLs had been restructured.

Unemployment benefit pay drops 66% in November Unemployment benefit payments recorded the second highest annual drop in the last three years, down by 66.4% in November, compared to the same month in 2013.

According to Social Insurance Department data, EUR 4.8 mln were paid from the unemployment benefit fund in November when the national jobless level had dipped to just below 17%, compared to EUR 14.3 mln a year earlier.

The biggest annual decrease in the payment of unemployment benefits was in April 2014 when it dropped 68.1% year-on-year.

During the January to November 2014 period, payments of unemployment benefit decreased by 21.1% to EUR 111.5 mln from 141.4 mln in the corresponding period of 2013, the year when a EUR 10 bln bailout plan was agreed with Cyprus’s international lenders (EU, ECB, IMF).

not compensate holders of capital securities who saw 600 mln euros worth of their investments disappear as part of the banking sector’s controversial bailout in 2013.

A further 47.5% of unsecured deposits over 100,000 euros were converted to equity in the “bail-in” process to recapitalise the bank, raising just under 4 bln at the time, while a further 1 bln euros was raised in fresh capital from foreign and local investors in August last year that helped the bank pass the ECB stress test on capital adequacy.

The Association of Capital Securities wants a comprehensive out-of-court settlement, arguing that securities holders were tricked into buying complex banking products.

CEO John Hourican, head-hunted from RBS in November 2013, has often said he empathised with the capital securities holders, but that after capital being raised

twice, with the full blessing of the Central Bank of Cyprus, there was nothing the bank could do, nor does it have the resources.

“Any proposals relating to any collective or general compensation schemes cannot be accepted or effected by the bank as there is no adequate legal basis that will support such actions,” the bank said in a reply to the association signed by chairman Josef Ackermann and senior independent board member Michael Spanos.

Noting the bank is fully aware of the social aspects of the matter as well as the severe economic conditions that many Cypriots, including many capital securities holders are now facing, the letter adds that “the bank together with other parties adopts and will continue to adopt various actions that help in alleviating the pain and economic problems of any socially affected and vulnerable categories of the people.”

Uncertainty dampens FDIs, investor groups tell MPs 4.3 bln since March 2013 F o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t s r e a c h €4

Uncertainty over the controversial foreclosures law and the insolvency framework is discouraging foreign direct investors who intended to pump money into projects in Cyprus, investor groups told the House Trade Committee on Tuesday.

The foreclosures bill remained in limbo after opposition parties in parliament voted to keep the present package suspended, jeopardising a calm review of the island’s economic adjustment programme under the 10 bln euro bailout programme.

The parallel set of regulations on insolvencies seems to be proceeding, at last, with the regulations determining examinership now concluded, while the final thorny issue of third party loan guarantors still pending.

Political parties want guarantors and primary homes to be exempted from foreclosures by banks, where the rate of nonperforming loans has soared to an unmanageable 50% of the banking system’s loanbook Frixos Savvides, Chairman of Cyprus International Businesses Association (CIBA), said that the first thing investors see is insecurity in relation to the foreclosures law.

The issue must be resolved very soon and “we need to see serious moves from banks so as to attract investment funds,” he said.

Marios Tsiakkis, Secretary General of the Cyprus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KEVE), added that the delay with the foreclosures problem is also preventing Cyprus from taking advantage of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme that would have seen the central bank purchasing up to 120 mln euros worth of Cyprus equities a month starting in March.

On the other hand, Commerce and Industry Ministry officials insist that the procedure to register a company is just three days with a cost of 100 euros and that while the one-stop shop exists, it is not fully effective.

Christodoulos Angastiniotis, Chairman of the state’s Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA), said that in order to attract businesses, bureaucracy must be eliminated.

“From March 2013 onwards, foreign investments in Cyprus have totalled 3.2 bln euros,” he said. Of that, investments worth 400 mln euros were made in sports and hotels, 1.2 bln went towards the recapitalisation of banks and 1.5 bln flowed into state coffers from issuing residence permits and passports.

Angastiniotis added that investments in the energy sector included the creation of a solar thermal park in Limassol.

He said, however, that during his trip to Australia he met the representatives of a large pipe manufacturing company who was considering investing in Cyprus, however, the unfriendly environment due to these processes prevented him from doing so.

He said that an investment conference will be held in

Limassol in few days, where 14 investment projects will be presented. It will be attended by major companies and 63 investment funds, including big names such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Societe Generale, HSBC and at least 15 funds from the Arab world, Angastiniotis said.

On behalf of the accounting profession, ICPAC General Manager Kyriacos Ioannou stressed the need for strategic planning for the foreign investments and to enrich the country’s product.

House Commerce Committee Chairman and DISY MP Zacharias Zachariou noted that investors want to invest safely.

“When they are frightened by the uncertainties of the banking system and they are suffering in the public service, they will go elsewhere”, he added.

Foreign investor interest on the rise, says CySEC chief Companies from Russia, Luxembourg and Greece are showing interest in specialised investment tools and funds, such as the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS), Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman (CySEC) Demetra Kalogirou said recently.

UCITS seek private investors and collectively invest in transferable securities or in other liquid financial instruments and alternative investment funds (AIF), which make alternative investments in real estate, ships and metals.

As Kalogerou said that 14 companies have applied for an AIF licence, 5 of which have been approved by the CySEC board. European legislation provides that such entities can manage funds of over 100 mln euros, she added.

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A AÚ. 1001

www.financialmirror.com

T∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 4 º∂µƒ√À∞ƒπ√À, 2015

«√ÌfiÏÔÁ· ÛÙÔ ¢ÈËÓÂΤ˜» ÛΤÊÙÂÙ·È Ô °È¿Ó˘ µ·ÚÔ˘Ê¿Î˘ ¶ÚfiÎÂÈÙ·È ÁÈ· ÔÌfiÏÔÁ· ¯ˆÚ›˜ ËÌÂÚÔÌËÓ›· Ï‹Í˘ Ένασ νέοσ οικονοµικÞσ Þροσ µπήκε στη ζωή µασ µετά τισ ανακοινώσεισ του νέου Έλληνα Υπουργού Οικονοµικών, Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη για το πώσ θα µπορούσε να µειωθεί το ελληνικÞ χρέοσ χωρίσ «κούρεµα», το οποίο αποκλείουν οι δανειστέσ. ΠρÞκειται για τα «αέναα οµÞλογα» Þπωσ είπε ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών ή αλλιώσ οµÞλογα στο ∆ιηνεκέσ (perpetual bond). Σύµφωνα µε την Investopedia πρÞκειται για ένα οµÞλογο χωρίσ ηµεροµηνία λήξησ και επί το ελληνικÞτερον ονοµάζονται “οµÞλογα στο διηνεκέσ“. Τα perpetual bonds δεν είναι εξαγοράσιµα, αλλά πληρώνουν ένα σταθερÞ επιτÞκιο για πάντα. ∆ηλαδή, το βασικÞ χαρακτηριστικÞ τουσ είναι Þτι επειδή είναι στο διηνεκέσ δεν υπάρχει αποπληρωµή κεφαλαίου, αλλά µÞνο καταβολή τÞκων. Επίσησ, Þπωσ εξηγεί σε άρθρο του ο οικονοµολÞγοσ ∆ηµήτρησ Σαντιξήσ (Τραπεζίτησ/Σύµβουλοσ ξένων επενδυτικών κεφαλαίων), ο δανειζÞµενοσ έχει τη δυνατÞτητα να ανακαλέσει το οµÞλογο µετά απÞ συγκεκριµένη περίοδο (ιδιαίτερα σε φάσεισ µείωσησ των επιτοκίων διεθνώσ), ενώ προβλέπεται συµβατικά περαιτέρω αύξηση του επιτοκίου µετά απÞ συγκεκριµένα χρονικά διαστήµατα. Το βρετανικÞ υπουργείο Οικονοµικών είχε εκδώσει τέτοια οµÞλογα µε στÞχο να αποπληρώσει µικρÞτερεσ εκδÞσεισ οµολÞγων που είχαν χρησιµοποιηθεί για να χρηµατοδοτήσουν τουσ ΝαπολεÞντειουσ Πολέµουσ το 1814. Ορισµένοι οικονοµικοί κύκλοι θεωρούν Þτι τα perpetuals µπορεί να αποδειχθούν αποτελεσµατικά Þπλα για τισ κυβερνήσεισ που θέλουν αν αποφύγουν τα κÞστη αναχρηµατοδÞτησησ που σχετίζονται µε την έκδοση οµολÞγων µε ηµεροµηνία λήξησ. Αναλυτικά το άρθρο του οικονοµολÞγου ∆ηµήτρη Σαντιξή αναφέρει: «Επειδή αναφέρθηκε απÞ τον Γιάνη Βαρουφάκηη ιδέα χρησιµοποίησησ οµÞλογων στο διηνεκέσ (perpetual bonds) για το δανεισµÞ τησ χώρασ, σκέφθηκα να γράψω αυτÞ το άρθρο για καλύτερη γνώση των δεδοµένων και των επιλογών χρηµατοδÞτησησ. Ασ πάρουµε τα πράγµατα µε τη σειρά, τεχνοκρατικά, Ùχι ωσ πολιτική κουβέντα. Τα οµÞλογα στο διηνεκέσ εµφανίστηκαν ωσ µορφή κρατικήσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ για πρώτη φορά το 1752 στην Μ. Βρετανία, µε στÞχο τη µείωση του κÞστουσ εξυπηρέτησησ του Εθνικού χρέουσ. Το βασικÞ χαρακτηριστικÞ του οµολÞγου είναι Þτι επειδή είναι στο διηνεκέσ δεν υπάρχει αποπληρωµή κεφαλαίου, αλλά µÞνο καταβολή τÞκων. Επίσησ ο δανειζÞµενοσ έχει τη δυνατÞτητα να ανακαλέσει το οµÞλογο µετά απÞ συγκεκριµένη περίοδο (ιδιαίτερα σε φάσεισ µείωσησ των επιτοκίων διεθνώσ) και τέλοσ προβλέπεται συµβατικά περαιτέρω αύξηση του επιτοκίου µετά απÞ συγκεκριµένα χρονικά διαστήµατα.

Œ¯Ô˘Ó ˘„ËÏfi ÂÈÙfiÎÈÔ Ùµωσ η χρηµατοδÞτηση αυτή είχε συγκριτικά υψηλÞ επιτÞκιο, καθώσ η έλλειψη χρονικήσ διάρκειασ και οι κίνδυνοι που σχετίζονται µε αυτήν, απαιτούν απÞ την πλευρά των επενδυτών πολύ µεγαλύτερο επιτÞκιο. Έτσι αυτÞ που φαίνεται αρχικά και επιφανειακά πιο βολικÞ, στην πραγµατικÞτητα, είναι ένασ ακριβÞσ τρÞποσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ. Ωσ συνέπεια των παραπάνω, τα οµÞλογα αυτά, αφού χρησιµοποιήθηκαν στη Μεγάλη Βρετανία κατά το πρώτο ΠαγκÞσµιο ΠÞλεµο, σε περίοδο Εθνικήσ έξαρσησ, έπαψαν ουσιαστικά πλέον να χρησιµοποιούνται απÞ κράτη, καθώσ ήταν φθηνÞτερο να χρηµατοδοτούνται σε συντοµÞτερεσ περιÞδουσ. ΤαυτÞχρονα οι επενδυτέσ απέφευγαν µια σειρά απÞ άλλουσ σοβαρούσ κινδύνουσ π.χ. η πιθανÞτητα ένα κράτοσ να µην υπάρχει στο µέλλον. Έτσι, επικράτησαν τα οµÞλογα συντοµÞτερησ διάρκειασ, δηλαδή τριετή, πενταετή, δεκαετή και maximum τριακονταετή σε πιο προηγµένεσ και ασφαλείσ οικονοµίεσ. Βέβαια υπήρχαν κάποιεσ χρονικέσ στιγµέσ που είδαµε ένα πολύ µικρÞ τέτοιο οµÞλογο π.χ. στο Καναδά το 1936 κι ένα επίσησ µικρÞ, 100 χρÞνων οµÞλογο απÞ το

ΜεξικÞ, ύψουσ µÞνο 1.6 δισ δολαρίων το 2014. Ùµωσ τα οµÞλογα στο διηνεκέσ συνεχίζουν να υπάρχουν ωσ τρÞποσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ εταιρειών και τα τελευταία χρÞνια βρήκαν λίγο πιο πρÞσφορο έδαφοσ. Χρησιµοποιούνται κυρίωσ απÞ εταιρείεσ σε µέτρια η δύσκολη οικονοµική κατάσταση, συνήθωσ σε Ινδία, Ινδονήσια και Κίνα, είναι για ποσά µικρÞτερα του ενÞσ δισ δολαρίων και έχουν ωσ βασικÞ χαρακτηριστικÞ το πολύ υψηλÞ επιτÞκιο, συνήθωσ άνω του 10%. Με αυτÞν τον τρÞπο, και οι επενδυτέσ έχουν µεγαλύτερεσ αποδÞσεισ και οι εταιρείεσ αποφεύγουν να αποπληρώνουν κεφάλαιο για κάποια δύσκολα για αυτέσ χρÞνια, ευελπιστώντασ, και οι δυο πλευρέσ, Þτι σε µερικά χρÞνια οι εταιρείεσ θα ανακαλέσουν τα οµÞλογα, κάνοντασ αναχρηµατοδÞτηση, σε µια περίοδο µείωσησ επιτοκίων στισ αγορέσ. ΤÞτε οι µεν εταιρείεσ θα πάψουν να πληρώνουν τα υψηλά επιτÞκια και θα αποφύγουν την περαιτέρω συµβατική αύξησή τουσ, ενώ οι επενδυτέσ απÞ την πλευρά τουσ, αφού έχουν καρπωθεί τα υψηλά επιτÞκια για µια περίοδο, θα αποφύγουν τουσ διαφÞρουσ κίνδυνουσ που αυξάνονται συνήθωσ σε βάθοσ χρÞνου π.χ. χρεοκοπίασ κλπ. Συµπερασµατικά: 1.Ενώ θεωρητικά ο τρÞποσ αυτÞσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ υπάρχει, στην πράξη ουσιαστικά δεν χρησιµοποιείται απÞ κράτη. Στην περίπτωση τησ Ελλάδασ, Þταν το δεκαετέσ οµÞλογο είναι σήµερα άνω του 10%, ενσωµατώνοντασ τον κίνδυνο χρεοκοπίασ και Grexit και η χώρα είναι σε µια δύσκολη φάση στισ σχέσεισ τησ µε την Ευρώπη, µια τέτοια χρηµατοδÞτηση θα ήταν στην πράξη ανέφικτη. Το επιτÞκιο που θα απαιτείτο απÞ τισ αγορέσ είτε θα ήταν πολύ υψηλÞ είτε δεν θα υπήρχε καθÞλου ενδιαφέρον απÞ την πλευρά τουσ και σε κάθε περίπτωση αυτÞ θα ήταν µÞνο για ένα εξαιρετικά µικρÞ ποσÞ.

2. Ùταν τα δάνεια που η Ευρώπη έχει δώσει στην Ελλάδα είναι µακράσ διαρκείασ (το 142.0 δισ δάνειο απÞ EFSF έχει διάρκεια 26 χρÞνια, µε περίοδο χάριτοσ µέχρι το 2022), µε πολύ µικρÞ επιτÞκιο 1.8% και Þταν άλλωστε υπάρχει σαφώσ η δυνατÞτητα περαιτέρω επιµήκυνσησ των δανείων και µείωσησ του επιτοκίου στο πλαίσιο µιασ συµφωνίασ µε τουσ δανειστέσ, µάλλον ο τρÞποσ αυτÞσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ είναι άνευ ιδιαίτερησ και πρακτικήσ ουσίασ.

™ÎÂÙÈÎÈÛÌfi˜ ÛÙËÓ ∂˘ÚÒË Πάντωσ, µάλλον ψυχρή υποδοχή επεφύλαξαν οι Ευρωπαίοι στην πρÞταση του Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη. Οι Ευρωπαίοι αξιωµατούχοι φαίνεται να θέλουν περισσÞτερεσ λεπτοµέρειεσ. Αλλά οι πρώτεσ αντιδράσεισ χαρακτηρίζονται µάλλον απÞ σκεπτικισµÞ.Υπάρχει ανησυχία Þτι (σσ: η πρÞταση) αποτελεί άλλο ένα κÞλπο για να επιτευχθεί ένα κούρεµα.«Ο Βαρουφάκησ είναι έξυπνοσ, αλλά υποβαθµίζει τα προβλήµατα και τα θεσµικά Þρια τησ ΕΚΤ και των κυβερνήσεων τησ ευρωζώνησ», ανέφεραν ανώτεροι ευρωπαίοι αξιωµατούχοι. Πέρα απÞ νοµικά ζητήµατα, η προτεινÞµενη ανταλλαγή οµολÞγων θέτει και µία σειρά απÞ πρακτικά ζητήµατα, τονίζουν. Την ίδια ώρα το ειδησεογραφικÞ πρακτορείο Bloomberg τονίζει πωσ η Ευρώπη δεν πρέπει να υποχωρήσει έναντι των ελληνικών απαιτήσεων. Στο άρθρο του Bloomberg σηµειώνεται Þτι «παρά τη σηµαντική πτώση του βιοτικού επιπέδου στην Ελλάδα, τα τελευταία χρÞνια οι Έλληνεσ έχουν επωφεληθεί τα µέγιστα απÞ την ένταξή τουσ στο ευρώ, ενώ µετά το ξέσπασµα τησ κρίσησ πραγµατοποιήθηκε τεράστιο κούρεµα του χρέουσ, µε ταυτÞχρονη διοχέτευση στη χώρα υπέρογκων κεφαλαίων απÞ τα χρήµατα των φορολογουµένων τησ βÞρειασ Ευρώπησ». Στο άρθρο διατυπώνεται η άποψη, µεταξύ άλλων, Þτι «µπορεί το ΑΕΠ τησ χώρασ να έχει µειωθεί κατά 25% απÞ το 2009, παραµένει, ωστÞσο, διπλάσιο σε σχέση µε αυτÞ που ήταν πριν απÞ την ένταξη στο ευρώ, το 2002. Οι µισθοί επίσησ µπορεί να µειώθηκαν κατά 20% µετά το ξέσπασµα τησ κρίσησ, αλλά παραµένουν ψηλÞτεροι σε σχέση µε το 2001. Οι καιροί, επίσησ, µπορεί να είναι δύσκολοι για την Ελλάδα, αλλά οι συνέπειεσ µιασ χρεοκοπίασ και εξÞδου απÞ το ευρώ θα ήταν πολύ χειρÞτερεσ, βραχυπρÞθεσµα, για το βιοτικÞ επίπεδο των Ελλήνων. Θα ήταν δύσκολο, δηλαδή, να καταβληθούν οι µισθοί του ∆ηµοσίου, ενώ ο τραπεζικÞσ τοµέασ θα εισέρχετο σε κρίση, η αξία των καταθέσεων θα µειώνονταν και το κÞστοσ των εισαγωγών θα εκτοξευÞταν».

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

™ÙȘ €23.600 ÙÔ Î·Ù¿ ÎÂÊ·Ï‹Ó ∞∂¶ Το κατά κεφαλήν ΑΕΠ τησ Κύπρου σε Þρουσ αγοραστικήσ δύναµησ ανήλθε το 2013 σε 23.600 ευρώ σύµφωνα µε το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών. Με αφορµή σχετικά σχÞλια και επικρίσεισ απÞ κÞµµατα τησ αντιπολίτευσησ, το υπουργείο οικονοµικών σε ανακοίνωση του σηµειώνει Þτι «σύµφωνα µε τα επικαιροποιηµένα στοιχεία τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Στατιστικήσ Υπηρεσίασ (Eurostat) για τουσ Εθνικούσ Λογαριασµούσ, το κατά κεφαλήν ΑΕΠ τησ Κύπρου σε Þρουσ αγοραστικήσ δύναµησ το 2013 ανήλθε στα 23.600 ευρώ, που αντιστοιχεί στο 89% του µέσου Þρου τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ των 28 (ΕΕ28) και στο 83% του µέσου Þρου τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Σύµφωνα µε τα ίδια στοιχεία, στην Ελλάδα, το 2013 το κατά κεφαλήν ΑΕΠ σε Þρουσ αγοραστικήσ δύναµησ ανήλθε στα 19.300 ευρώ, ή στο

73% του µέσου Þρου τησ ΕΕ28 και στο 67% τησ Ευρωζώνησ». «Σε πραγµατικούσ Þρουσ, το κατά κεφαλήν ΑΕΠ, τησ Κύπρου µειώθηκε αθροιστικά κατά 15,8% κατά την περίοδο 2008-2013. Αυτή ήταν και η δεύτερη πιο µεγάλη µείωση στο πραγµατικÞ κατά κεφαλήν ΑΕΠ, µετά την Ελλάδα που σηµείωσε µείωση 28,9% την ίδια περίοδο. Σε σύγκριση µε άλλα κράτη µέλη που πέρασαν απÞ τη διαδικασία µακροοικονοµικού προγράµµατοσ, την περίοδο 2008-2013 στην Πορτογαλία το κατά κεφαλήν ΑΕΠ σε πραγµατικούσ Þρουσ µειώθηκε αθροιστικά κατά 6,5%, ενώ στην Ιρλανδία κατά 11%», προσθέτει η ανακοίνωση. «Σηµειώνεται Þτι απÞ το 2ο τρίµηνο του 2013, η κυπριακή οικονοµία καταγράφει τάσεισ ανάκαµψησ», καταλήγει παραθέτοντασ και σχετικÞ διάγραµµα που φαίνεται δίπλα.

¢ÂÓ Ê‡ÁÂÈ ÙÔ «ª·ÚÌ·Úfi˜» ÂÂȉ‹ ÙÔ ˙‹ÙËÛÂ Ô ∆Û›Ú·˜ Απέρριψε η Άγκυρα το αίτηµα του Έλληνα πρωθυπουργού, Αλέξη Τσίπρα για αποχώρηση του «ΜπαρµπαρÞσ» απÞ την κυπριακή ΑΟΖ, προκειµένου να ξεκινήσουν ξανά οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ για το ΚυπριακÞ. Τουρκικέσ διπλωµατικέσ πηγέσ δήλωσαν στην τουρκική εφηµερίδα Hurriyet Þτι δεν θα αποσύρουν το ερευνητικÞ πλοίο επειδή το ζήτησε ο Αλέξησ Τσίπρασ και επανέλαβαν Þτι δεν υπάρχει καµιά αλλαγή στη στάση τησ Άγκυρασ. “Οι θέσεισ που είχαµε εκφράσει προη-

γουµένωσ ισχύουν”, ανέφερε η ίδια πηγή λέγοντασ Þτι οι τρεισ προτάσεισ τησ Άγκυρασ παραµένουν εκεί: “Πρώτον, να επιταχυνθεί η διαδικασία λύσησ των Ηνωµένων Εθνών. ∆εύτερον, οι φυσικέσ πηγέσ να ανήκουν στην ενωµένη Κύπρο. Τρίτον, πρέπει να ιδρυθεί µια κοινή επιτροπή για τισ φυσικέσ πηγέσ κατά τη διαδικασία τησ λύσησ και τα έσοδα απÞ τισ φυσικέσ πηγέσ να κατακρατηθούν απÞ αυτή την επιτροπή”, αναφέρθηκε χαρακτηριστικά.

Το τουρκικÞ «Þχι» ακολούθησε έπειτα απÞ τη συνάντηση του Αλέξη Τσίπρα µε τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ Κυπριακήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, Νίκο Αναστασιάδη, στη Λευκωσία, απÞ Þπου ο νέοσ πρωθυπουργÞσ τησ Ελλάδασ έκανε λÞγο για παραβίαση των κυριαρχικών δικαιωµάτων στην κυπριακή ΑΟΖ, σηµειώνοντασ πωσ η έλευση του ερευνητικού σκάφουσ ΜπαρµπαρÞσ «συνιστά κατάφωρη παραβίαση του διεθνούσ δικαίου και υπονοµεύει τισ διµερείσ συνοµιλίεσ».

¢‡ÛÎÔÏ· Ë ÂÍÒ‰ÈÎË ‰È¢ı¤ÙËÛË ÁÈ· ·ÍÈfiÁÚ·Ê· Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκοσ Αναστασιάδησ είχε χθεσ συνάντηση µε εκπροσώπουσ του Συνδέσµου ΚατÞχων Αξιογράφων. Μετά τη συνάντηση, ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Συνδέσµου ΚατÞχων Αξιογράφων Φοίβοσ Μαυροβουνιώτησ σε δηλώσεισ του είπε, µεταξύ άλλων, Þτι «Þσον αφορά την προσπάθεια του Προέδρου για εξώδικη διευθέτηση παρουσιάζονται πολύ σοβαρέσ δυσκολίεσ γιατί η Τράπεζα Κύπρου έχει αποστείλει επιστολή Þτι δεν µπορεί να προχωρήσει σε οµαδική αποζηµίωση εξωδίκωσ, αλλά πρέπει να πάµε δικαστήριο και απÞ Þ,τι λέει η Τράπεζα Κύπρου θα σεβαστεί τισ αποφάσεισ του δικαστηρίου. ΟπÞτε το σηµείο εκείνο τησ πρÞτασησ του Προέδρου προσ την Τράπεζα Κύπρου δεν µπορεί να υλοποιηθεί ούτε να δώσει το 47,5% σε µετοχέσ και ούτε να προχωρήσει σε συµψηφισµÞ των δανείων που εξασφάλιζαν τα αξιÞγραφα στο

EÚ¢ÓÒÓ ÏÂÈÙÔ˘ÚÁfi˜ ÁÈ· Ryanair

παρÞν στάδιο. Η κατάληξη, είναι Þτι έχουν διοριστεί έξι δικαστέσ, δύο στη Λευκωσία, δύο στη ΛεµεσÞ, ένασ στην Πάφο και ένασ στη Λάρνακα και θα ξεκινήσει η δικαστική διαδικασία, έτσι ώστε εκεί που θα λαµβάνονται αποφάσεισ απÞ το δικαστήριο για εκείνον ο οποίοσ έχει εξαπατήσει κάτοχο αξιογράφων, οι αποφάσεισ θα γίνονται σεβαστέσ προσ υλοποίηση». ΠρÞσθεσε Þτι «είµαστε υπεραισιÞδοξοι Þτι θα κερδηθούν οι υποθέσεισ και Þσοι έχουν ευθύνη θα αποζηµιώσουν». Κάλεσε επίσησ τουσ ιδιώτεσ κατÞχουσ αξιογράφων αµέσωσ να κινήσουν αγωγέσ και σηµείωσε πωσ Þσοι αδυνατούν να κινήσουν αγωγέσ τÞτε πιθανÞτατα να κατοχυρώνονται έτσι ώστε να µπορέσει το κράτοσ να καλύψει τα έξοδα. Επεσήµανε εξάλλου Þτι οι επηρεαζÞµενοι αναφορικά µε τα αξιÞγραφα ανέρχονται στισ 60 χιλιάδεσ. Στη συνάντηση, πρÞσθεσε, τέθηκε και το θέµα τησ ενίσχυσησ του θεσµού του Χρηµατοοικονοµικού ΕπιτρÞπου.

Σε δηλώσεισ του, ο εκπρÞσωποσ Τύπου του Συνδέσµου ΛεÞντιοσ Χατζηβασίλησ επισήµανε Þτι οι κάτοχοι αξιÞγραφων αποτελούν διαφορετική περίπτωση απÞ τουσ καταθέτεσ και ζήτησε συµψηφισµÞ των δανείων µε τα αξιÞγραφα.

∫∆∫: ¢ÈÂÍ¿ÁÂÙ·È ¤Ú¢ӷ ÁÈ· ELA στην οργάνωση, δοµή και λειτουργία τησ ΚΤΚ, καθώσ και την ανάγκη εισαγωγήσ βέλτιστων πρακτικών διακυβέρνησησ. Τέλοσ σε ανακοίνωση τονίζεται πωσ για πρώτη φορά στην ιστορία τησ ΚΤΚ, µε οµÞφωνη απÞφαση του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου και την απαραίτητη στήριξη τησ ∆ιοικητού, ηµεροµηνίασ 22 Σεπτεµβρίου 2014, αποφασίστηκε η πλήρησ αναδιοργάνωση και εκσυγχρονισµÞσ τησ ΚΤΚ. Ωσ προσ τούτο, και αφού λήφθηκαν υπÞψη προηγούµενεσ εισηγήσεισ, αποφασίστηκε Þπωσ διεξαχθεί εµπεριστατωµένη και ολοκληρωµένη µελέτη που να αντικατοπτρίζει τισ βέλτιστεσ πρακτικέσ διεθνώσ που να µπορούν, Þµωσ, να εφαρµοστούν και να ανταποκριθούν στισ σηµερινέσ ανάγκεσ και ρÞλο τησ ΚΤΚ.

Ο Παγκύπριοσ ∆ικηγορικÞσ Σύλλογοσ, αναµένεται να διορίσει σήµερα ερευνών λειτουργÞ, για την υπÞθεση που αφορά την παρουσία των δύο δικηγÞρων του γραφείου “Νίκοσ Χρ. Αναστασιάδησ και συνεταίροι”, σε συνάντηση τησ Επιτροπήσ ∆ιαπραγµάτευσησ µε τη Ryanair, τον Οκτώβριο. Ο πρÞεδροσ του ΣυλλÞγου, ∆ώροσ Ιωαννίδησ, δήλωσε, Þτι το ΠειθαρχικÞ Συµβούλιο θα διερευνήσει τα γεγονÞτα σε σχέση µε την εµπλοκή των δικηγÞρων στη διαδικασία. Ξεκαθάρισε πάντωσ Þτι δεν έχει διευκρινιστεί ακÞµη, εάν οι δύο δικηγÞροι παρουσιάστηκαν στη συνάντηση µε διαφορετικά ονÞµατα και εάν είχαν πει Þτι εκπροσωπούν άλλο δικηγορικÞ γραφείο.

∆ιεξάγεται έρευνα για την Έκτακτη Παροχή ΡευστÞτητασ (ELA) ωσ έχει ανακοινωθεί στισ 21 Νοεµβρίου 2014, ανακοίνωσε χθεσ η Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου. Η ΚΤΚ σε σχέση µε πρÞσφατεσ αναφορέσ στον Τύπο για τισ έρευνεσ που διεξάγονται για το σκάνδαλο τησ οικονοµίασ και τα θέµατα διακυβέρνησησ και αναδιάρθρωσησ τησ ΚΤΚ, ανακοίνωσε επίσησ Þτι έχει ήδη προχωρήσει µε απÞφαση του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ, ηµεροµηνίασ 12 Νοεµβρίου 2014, στισ διαδικασίεσ διεξαγωγήσ έρευνασ σχετικά µε την πώληση των υποκαταστηµάτων των κυπριακών τραπεζών στην Ελλάδα τον Μάρτιο 2013. Επίσησ το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ ΚΤΚ, έχει διαχρονικά αναγνωρίσει το θέµα τησ ανάγκησ µεταρρυθµίσεων

¶ÚÔÛÊÔÚ¤˜ ÁÚ·ÌÌ·Ù›ˆÓ 125 ÂÎ. €1

9 ÂÎ. ÁÈ· ÙÔ Ù·ÌÂ›Ô ¶ÚÔÓÔ›·˜ ÙˆÓ ∫.∞ €9

Προσφορέσ συνολικήσ ονοµαστικήσ αξίασ 125 εκ. ευρώ έγιναν αποδεκτέσ κατά τη χθεσινή δηµοπρασία γραµµατίων του ∆ηµοσίου 13 εβδοµάδων µε µέση σταθµική απÞδοση 2,96%. Σύµφωνα µε ανακοίνωση του γραφείου διαχείρισησ δηµοσίου χρέουσ, οι ανταγωνιστικέσ προσφορέσ ανήλθαν στα 105,6 εκ. ευρώ και οι µη ανταγωνιστικέσ προσφορέσ στα 19,4 εκ. ευρώ. Συνολικά λήφθηκαν προσφορέσ ύψουσ 209 εκ. ευρώ. Οι ανταγωνιστικέσ προσφορέσ ανήλθαν στα 175,7 εκ. ευρώ και οι µη ανταγωνιστικέσ προσφορέσ στα 33,2 εκ. ευρώ. Οι αποδεκτέσ αποδÞσεισ κυµάνθηκαν µεταξύ 2,75%-3,30%.

Με εκπροσώπουσ των συντεχνιών ΣΕΚ και ΠΕΟ, για το θέµα των πρώην υπαλλήλων των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών είχε χθεσ συνάντηση ο πρÞεδροσ Αναστασιάδησ. Ο Αναπληρωτήσ ΚυβερνητικÞσ ΕκπρÞσωποσ, Βίκτωρασ ΠαπαδÞπουλοσ, δήλωσε Þτι το κράτοσ θα καλύψει εννέα και πλέον εκατοµµύρια ευρώ για το έλλειµµα που υπάρχει στα Ταµεία Προνοίασ των εργαζοµένων. Επίσησ, είπε, η κυβέρνηση έχει αποδεχθεί και θα καλύψει ποσÞ 2,7 εκατοµµυρίων ευρώ ωσ αποζηµίωση σε Þσουσ

απολύθηκαν απÞ την εταιρεία κατά την περίοδο ∆εκεµβρίου 2012 - ∆εκεµβρίου 2014. Το κράτοσ, πρÞσθεσε ο Βίκτωρασ ΠαπαδÞπουλοσ, θα συµπληρώσει το 17% που είχε αποκοπεί απÞ τουσ µισθούσ απÞ τουσ υπαλλήλουσ και θα δώσει επιπλέον αποζηµιώσεισ σε ωροµίσθιουσ τησ εταιρείασ. Ùσον αφορά την απορρÞφιση αριθµού υπαλλήλων στο δηµÞσιο τοµέα, είπε Þτι, αν και υπάρχουν νοµικοί περιορισµοί, εντούτοισ το θέµα δεν έχει κλείσει, Þπωσ και το θέµα µε το ύψοσ των αποζηµιώσεων που θα δοθούν σε συγκεκριµένουσ άξονεσ.

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4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

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∞∫π¡∏∆∏ π¢π√∫∆∏™π∞ - ¢ÂÓ Â›Ì·ÛÙ Ì ٷ ηϿ Ì·˜; ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓ˘ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿Ù˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘Í˘

∆εν γνωρίζουµε ποιοσ ετοιµάζει τα διάφορα νοµοσχέδια και προτάσεισ που αφορούν την ακίνητη ιδιοκτησία και διερωτÞµαστε κ. Υπουργέ των Εσωτερικών, εάν εκείνοι που τα ετοιµάζουν γνωρίζουν το αντικείµενο. Υπάρχει η θεωρία (ουτοπία) και η πρακτική (τα δεδοµένα επιτÞπου). ¶ÔÈÓÈ΋ ¢›ˆÍË ÁÈ· ȉÈÔÎً٘-Ì˯·ÓÈÎÔ‡˜ Θα υπάρχει, αναφέρεται στο επικείµενο νοµοσχέδιο, ποινική δίωξη τÞσο για τουσ ιδιοκτήτεσ-developers, Þσο και για τουσ µηχανικούσ-επιβλέποντεσ, εάν εντÞσ 30 ηµερών απÞ την ολοκλήρωση τησ οικοδοµήσ δεν υποβλήθηκε αίτηση για έκδοση Πιστοποιητικού Τελικήσ Έγκρισησ Π.Τ.Ε. (αλλού αναφέρεται µετά την συµπλήρωση τησ οικοδοµήσ 21 ηµέρεσ). Για να υποβληθεί το καλυπτικÞ πιστοποιητικÞ τελικήσ έγκρισησ θα πρέπει το έργοµονάδα να έχει εκτελεστεί ωσ η εκδοθείσα άδεια οικοδοµήσ. Εάν Þχι, διÞτι, π.χ. ο αγοραστήσ-ιδιοκτήτησ υιοθέτησε κάποιοσ διαφορετικά σχέδια π.χ. µε κατασκευή πισίνασ, γκαράζ κλπ, εντÞσ Þµωσ των υπαρχÞντων κανονισµών θα πρέπει: - Να υποβληθεί νέα αίτηση για πολεοδοµική άδεια 3-6 µήνεσ - Νέα αίτηση για άδεια οικοδοµήσ ακÞµη 2-5 µήνεσ - Επιθεώρηση επιτÞπου ακÞµη 3-5 µήνεσ για την έκδοση του Π.Τ.Ε. Και εάν Þλα είναι εντάξει τÞτε εκδίδεται το πιστοποιητικÞ τελικήσ έγκρισησ αφού: - Υποβληθεί η εισήγηση του Τεχνικού Τµήµατοσ τησ Πολεοδοµικήσ Αρχήσ για έγκριση.

- Εγκριθούν τα πρακτικά απÞ την επιτροπή του ∆ήµου-Αρχήσ.

- Εγκριθεί απÞ το Συµβούλιο τησ Αρχήσ.

- Ετοιµαστούν τα πρακτικά του Συµβουλίου και υπογραφούν.

- Πληρωθούν τα δικαιώµατα κλπ. Έχουµε παραδείγµατα Þπου η πιο πάνω διαδικασία χρειάζεται ανάλογα του θέµατοσ οτιδήποτε µεταξύ 3-8 µήνεσ επιπλέον. Και Þλα αυτά χωρίσ να υπάρχουν ιδιαίτερεσ καθυστερήσεισ εκ µέρουσ του αρχιτέκτονα. Π.χ. Έτοιµο αποπερατωµένο έργο µε 60 κατοικίεσ αναµένεται η µετατροπή του χωραφιού σε οικÞπεδο, για το οποίο δεν έχει εκδοθεί Þµωσ πιστοποιητικÞ τελικήσ έγκρισησ, για να

ακολουθήσουν τα Π.Τ.Ε. για τισ κατοικίεσ, Και αυτÞ διÞτι η τοπική αρχή χρειάστηκε 18 µήνεσ να εκδώσει την έκθεση τησ για την µετατροπή (χωρίσ κανένα πρÞβληµα), ενώ το ΚτηµατολÞγιο 8 µήνεσ για να εκδώσει τίτλο του γηπέδου ωσ οικÞπεδο. Άρα το Π.Τ.Ε. καθυστερεί. Ποινική δίωξη κατ’ επέκταση τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ; Το ΚτηµατολÞγιο σε αρκετέσ περιπτώσεισ για µικρολεπτοµέρειεσ καθυστερεί την Þλη διαδικασία. Αναφερθήκαµε σε προηγούµενο µασ άρθρο για επέµβαση του τοίχου του γείτονα 20”, χρειάστηκαν 2 µήνεσ να συναινέσει ο ∆ήµοσ για την έκδοση του Π.Τ.Ε., ενώ αυτÞσ που επενέβηκε και ο γείτονασ ιδιοκτήτησ δεν είχαν κανένα πρÞβληµα µεταξύ τουσ. ¶.∆.∂. Î·È ∫·ÙÔ¯‹ Και ωσ και εάν Þλα αυτά δεν είναι αρκετά, απαγορεύεται η κατοχή οικοδοµήσ αν δεν έχει το Π.Τ.Ε. ∆ηλαδή τα ξενοδοχεία µασ κατά 90%, οι ιδιωτικέσ κατοικίεσ κατά 70%, κυβερνητικά γραφεία, περιλαµβανοµένων και εκείνων του Υπουργείου Οικονοµικών-Ανώτατο ∆ικαστήριο κλπ, δεν µπορούν να χρησιµοποιηθούν. Εάν δε χρησιµοποιούνται, το ΕπαρχιακÞ ∆ικαστήριο έχει την ευχέρεια να εκδώσει διάταγµα κατεδάφισησ - ιδιαίτερα οι περιπτώσεισ ξένων επενδυτών και υπεράκτιων εταιρειών - και πρÞβληµα αρνητικήσ προβολήσ για τον τουρισµÞ. Εάν µία οικοδοµή δεν έχει εξασφαλίσει Π.Τ.Ε. η ασφάλιση τησ είναι νÞµιµη; Ωσ εκ τούτου Þταν τελειώσει ένα έργο ο αγοραστήσ θα πρέπει να περιµένει 8-24 µήνεσ για να τύχει κατοχήσ, ενώ εάν τολµήσει να το κατέχει θα του το κατεδαφίσουν!!! ∆ηλαδή είµαστε µε τα καλά µασ; Ωσ εκ τούτου εισηγούµαστε αντί του Π.Τ.Ε. να εκδίδεται πιστοποιητικÞ ασφάλειασ οικοδοµήσ απÞ τον επιβλέποντα µηχανικÞ για να δικαιούται ο αγοραστήσ την κατοχή τησ ανεξάρτητα του Π.Τ.Ε. και αυτÞ το Π.Τ.Ε. να έχει περίοδο 2 ετών απÞ την αποπεράτωση τησ οικοδοµήσ. ∆Ú¿Â˙˜ Î·È ¶.∆.∂. Κατ’ επέκταση λοιπÞν πωσ θα διαθέσουν οι τράπεζεσ τα υποθηκευµένα ακίνητα χωρίσ το Π.Τ.Ε.; Εάν υπάρξει δικαστική απÞφαση να κατεδαφιστούν τα κτίρια π.χ. ξενοδοχεία, χωρίσ το Π.Τ.Ε. και µετά τι; Ιδιωτικέσ Vs ∆ηµÞσιεσ Πισίνεσ - Το αλαλούµ!! Η µεν Κυπριακή νοµοθεσία αναφέρεται σε πισίνα που εξυπηρετεί πέραν των 10 µονάδων θεωρείται ωσ ∆ηµÞσια, ενώ οι οδηγίεσ τησ Ε.Ε. αναφέρουν Þτι ∆ηµÞσιεσ πισίνεσ είναι εκείνεσ που είναι ελεύθερεσ για το κοινÞ και µε την ανάλογη χρέωση. ∆ηλαδή για 11 διαµερίσµατα µια «∆ηµÞσια» πισίνα χρειάζεται ναυαγοσώστη, δωµάτιο πρώτων βοηθει-

∫ÔÏÔοÛÈ Î·È ÁÏ˘Îfi ÙÚÈ·ÓÙ¿Ê˘ÏÏÔ ¿Ó ÁÈ· «ÚÔÛÙ·Û›·» Το Υπουργείο Γεωργίασ, Αγροτικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Περιβάλλοντοσ απέστειλε στην Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή τουσ φακέλουσ για καταχώρηση ακÞµη δύο ονοµασιών που αφορούν κυπριακά προϊÞντα. ΠρÞκειται για το «ΓλυκÞ Τριαντάφυλλο Αγρού» για καταχώρηση ωσ ΠροστατευÞµενη Γεωγραφική Ένδειξη (ΠΓΕ) και το «Κολοκάσι Σωτήρασ», «Κολοκάσι-Πούλλεσ Σωτήρασ» ωσ ΠροστατευÞµενη Ονοµασία Προέλευσησ (ΠΟΠ). Οι δύο αιτήσεισ θα τύχουν εξέτασησ σε κοινοτικÞ επίπεδο και εφÞσον εγκριθούν απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή θα δηµοσιευτούν στην Επίσηµη Εφηµερίδα τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, για υποβολή τυχÞν ενστάσεων απÞ άλλα κράτη µέλη ή τρίτεσ χώρεσ πριν την τελική καταχώρησή τουσ στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Μητρώο ΠροστατευÞµενων Ονοµασιών.

ª¤¯ÚÈ 16/2 Ô ·Ó·ÎÂʷϷȈÙÈÎfi˜ ›Ó·Î·˜ ÁÈ· TAXISnet Το Τµήµα Φορολογίασ ανακοίνωσε Þτι η ηλεκτρονική υποβολή του Ανακεφαλαιωτικού Πίνακα µέσω του συστήµατοσ TAXISnet για την περίοδο του Ιανουαρίου 2015, µπορεί να γίνει µέχρι και τη ∆ευτέρα 16 Φεβρουαρίου 2015, λÞγω του Þτι η τελευταία ηµεροµηνία υποβολήσ, 15 Φεβρουαρίου 2015, δεν είναι εργάσιµη µέρα. Σε περίπτωση που ο ΑνακεφαλαιωτικÞσ Πίνακασ δεν υποβληθεί έγκαιρα, τÞτε θα επιβληθεί χρηµατική επιβάρυνση που ανέρχεται σε 50 ευρώ. Για οποιεσδήποτε πρÞσθετεσ πληροφορίεσ ή διευκρινίσεισ οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να αποτείνονται στα τηλέφωνα 22446191 και 22446189.

αδειών κλπ. ∫›ÓËÙÚ· Ì ·‡ÍËÛË ÙÔ˘ ™˘ÓÙÂÏÂÛÙ‹ ¢fiÌËÛ˘

ών κλπ. ∆ηλαδή τα 11 διαµερίσµατα θα χρεώνονται γύρω στισ 1.000 ευρώ τον µήνα κοινÞχρηστα (αδειούχοσ ο ναυαγοσώστησ παρακαλώ και κατά την διάρκεια λειτουργίασ τησ πισίνασ). Πιστεύουµε Þτι είναι Þτι το πλέον τρελÞ. Αντί τούτου µήπωσ αντί τησ ύπαρξησ ναυαγοσώστη να υπάρχει ένα µέγιστο βάθοσ νερού 1.40 µ. που περιορίζει τα ατυχήµατα; ΤαυτÞχρονα εάν αυτÞ δεν είναι κατορθωτÞ, υπάρχουν νÞµιµα «κÞλπα» που µπορεί αυτÞ να ξεπεραστεί µεν, αλλά µε άλλεσ παρενέργειεσ. ¶ÔÏÂÔ‰ÔÌÈ΋ ∞ÌÓËÛÙ›· Κατάλαβε Þµωσ κάποιοσ τι εφαρµÞζεται επί εδάφουσ σε σχέση µε ένα ευφάνταστο µέτρο για κάλυψη κάποιων παρανοµιών σε ένα κατά τα άλλα πολύ καλÞ νÞµο; Για να αιτηθεί στο τέλοσ ένασ πολεοδοµική αµνηστία θα πρέπει να υποβάλει εξ’ αρχήσ πολεοδοµικά σχέδια-άδεια οικοδοµήσ-Π.Τ.Ε. και εν τω µεταξύ; ∆ικαιούται να το κατέχει µέχρι τησ απÞκτησησ του Π.Τ.Ε.; χρÞνοσ Þχι λιγÞτερο απÞ 1-2 χρÞνια, πλέον κÞστη αρχιτέκτονα,

Ασ έλθουµε στο τέλοσ και στα κίνητρα, ένα πολύ ορθÞ κίνητρο για ανάπτυξη, µε αύξηση Σ.∆. 20%-25%. Αλλά τι αλαλούµ και εδώ. Ενώ η αρχική απÞφαση του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου αναφέρει Þτι υπάρχει η απÞφαση τησ 3-6-2013 και αναφέρεται στην υποβολή αίτησησ για άδεια εντÞσ 2 ετών (δηλαδή 3-62015) µια νέα «κρυφή» µάλλον απÞφαση τησ 29.5.2014 αναφέρει Þτι µέχρι τον 5-2015 θα πρέπει το έργο να έχει Þλεσ τισ σχετικέσ άδειεσ περιλαµβανοµένησ και τησ άδειασ οικοδοµήσ. Και διερωτÞµαστε, ο καλÞπιστοσ αυτÞσ επενδυτήσ που βασίστηκε στην απÞφαση 3.6.2013 και είχε την ανοησία να την υιοθετήσει πιστεύοντασ στην άνεση χρÞνου, ποιοσ θα του εξηγήσει τώρα Þτι χρειάζεται πολεοδοµική-άδεια οικοδοµήσ µέχρι τον 52015; Αδύνατον να επιτευχθεί και άρα δώρο άδωρο. ÕÏÏ· £¤Ì·Ù· Έχουµε και άλλα θέµατα να προβληµατίσουµε Þπωσ οι επιµέρουσ ιδιοκτησίεσ-µονάδεσ που έχουν εξοφληθεί απÞ τουσ αγοραστέσ και θα δικαιούνται το ελεύθερο τησ µεταβίβασησ µÞνο εάν το πωλητήριο έγγραφο κατατεθεί στο ΚτηµατολÞγιο. Καλά, οι υπÞλοιποι που για τον ένα η άλλο λÞγο δεν κατέθεσαν τα συµβÞλαια τουσ θα µείνουν εκτεθειµένοι; (επιστολή σε Þλα τα κÞµµατα χωρίσ χαµπάρι πλην του ΑΚΕΛ που µασ διαβεβαίωσε Þτι θα το µελετήσει διÞτι το βρίσκει λογικÞ). Συνήθωσ επικαλούµαστε τον ΘεÞ να µασ βοηθήσει, αλλά εδώ ούτε ο ΘεÞσ θα µπορεί να ξεπεράσει τέτοιεσ καταστάσεισ.

4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

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4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

¶ÚÔ˜ Ï‹ÚˆÛË 8 ı¤ÛÂȘ ·ÓÒÙÂÚÔ˘ ‰ÈÎËÁfiÚÔ˘ Ù˘ ¢ËÌÔÎÚ·Ù›·˜ Έχουν προκηρυχτεί για πλήρωση οκτώ κενέσ µÞνιµεσ θέσεισ Ανώτερου ∆ικηγÞρου τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ, στη Νοµική Υπηρεσία, σύµφωνα µε τη γνωστοποίηση µε αριθµÞ 4829 που δηµοσιεύτηκε στην Επίσηµη Εφηµερίδα τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ µε ηµεροµηνία 30.1.2015. Σηµειώνεται, Þτι η δηµοσίευση των εν λÞγω θέσεων γίνεται ύστερα απÞ την απÞφαση του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου και τη µετέπειτα γραπτή συγκατάθεση τησ Κοινοβουλευτικήσ Επιτροπήσ Οικονοµικών και Προϋπολογισµού, για εξαίρεσή τουσ απÞ τισ πρÞνοιεσ των περί τησ ΑπαγÞρευσησ Πλήρωσησ Κενών Θέσεων στο ∆ηµÞσιο και στον Ευρύτερο ∆ηµÞσιο

Τοµέα (Ειδικέσ ∆ιατάξεισ) ΝÞµων του 2013 έωσ (Αρ. 2) του 2014. Αιτήσεισ θα πρέπει να υποβληθούν στο έντυπο Γεν. 6 και να παραδοθούν στο Γραφείο τησ Επιτροπήσ ∆ηµÞσιασ Υπηρεσίασ έναντι απÞδειξησ παραλαβήσ ή να αποσταλούν µέσω του Ταχυδροµείου µε συστηµένη επιστολή στον ΠρÞεδρο τησ Επιτροπήσ ∆ηµÞσιασ Υπηρεσίασ, 1407 Λευκωσία, ή µέσω τηλεοµοιοτυπικήσ υπηρεσίασ (αρ. 22670101), Þχι αργÞτερα απÞ τισ 24.2.2015. Εγκεκριµένη Μισθοδοτική Κλίµακα: Α 15 : 47.406 ευρώ, 49.325, 51.244, 53.163, 55.082, 57.001 κ αι Α 16 : 52.026 ευρώ, 53.945, 55.864, 57.783, 59.702, 61.621 (Συνδυασµένεσ

Κλίµακεσ). Σηµειώνεται Þτι αναφορικά µε τη µισθοδοσία αυτών που θα διοριστούν/προαχθούν εφαρµÞζονται οι πρÞνοιεσ των περί τησ µη Παραχώρησησ Προσαυξήσεων και Τιµαριθµικών Αυξήσεων στουσ Μισθούσ των Αξιωµατούχων και Εργοδοτουµένων και στισ Συντάξεισ των Συνταξιούχων τησ Κρατικήσ Υπηρεσίασ και του Ευρύτερου ∆ηµÞσιου Τοµέα ΝÞµων του 2011 έωσ 2014. Στη µισθοδοσία προστίθενται οι οποιεσδήποτε γενικέσ αυξήσεισ που έχουν εγκριθεί µε νοµοθεσία. Επιπλέον, καταβάλλεται τιµαριθµικÞ επίδοµα, σύµφωνα µε το ποσοστÞ που εγκρίνεται απÞ την Κυβέρνηση απÞ καιρÞ σε καιρÞ.

√ πˆ¿ÓÓ˘ §Ô˝˙Ô˘ Ó¤Ô˜ CEO Ù˘ Ancoria Bank Ανώτατοσ ΕκτελεστικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ νεοσύστατησ Ancoria Bank διορίστηκε στισ αρχέσ Ιανουαρίου o Ιωάννησ Λοΐζου. Ο κ. Λοΐζου διετέλεσε Ανώτατοσ ΕκτελεστικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ Ancoria Insurance απÞ το 1989 µέχρι και το ∆εκέµβριο του 2014 και θα συνεχίσει να προεδρεύει του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Ancoria Insurance. Ο κ. Λοΐζου, είναι Εγκεκριµένοσ Λογιστήσ (CPA), απÞφοιτοσ του Queens College New York µε µεταπτυχιακέσ σπουδέσ στο The Bernard M. Baruch College

Νέασ ΥÞρκησ. Η Ancoria Bank µε νέα φιλοσοφία και προσέγγιση στην εξυπηρέτηση του πελάτη αναµένεται να ξεκινήσει τη λειτουργία τησ στην Κύπρο εντÞσ του 2015 µε δύο καταστήµατα, ένα στη Λευκωσία και ένα στη ΛεµεσÞ. Τα καθήκοντα του κ. Λοΐζου στην Ancoria Insurance και συγκεκριµένα τη θέση του Ανώτατου Εκτελεστικού ∆ιευθυντή αναλαµβάνει ο κ. Τάσοσ Αναστάση. O κ. Αναστάση έχει εκτεταµένη

εµπειρία στον τοµέα των χρηµατοπιστωτικών υπηρεσιών, κατέχοντασ διάφορεσ θέσεισ σε Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, Ελλάδα και Κύπρο, κυρίωσ στον κλάδο του Wealth Management, απÞ το 1999. Προτού αναλά-

¶ÚÔÔÙÈΤ˜ ÂÍ·ÁˆÁ‹˜ ΢ÚÈ·ÎÒÓ ÚÔ˚fiÓÙˆÓ ÛÙËÓ πÓ‰›· Το ενδεχÞµενο εξαγωγήσ κυπριακών προϊÞντων στην Ινδία συζήτησαν, µεταξύ άλλων, ο ΥπουργÞσ Γεωργίασ, Αγροτικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Περιβάλλοντοσ Νίκοσ Κουγιάλησ µε τον ΙνδÞ Ύπατο Αρµοστή στην Κύπρο Ravi Bangar, σε εθιµοτυπική συνάντηση που πραγµατοποιήθηκε το πρωί στο Υπουργείο Γεωργίασ, Αγροτικήσ Ανάπτυξησ και Περιβάλλοντοσ. Στο πλαίσιο των προσπαθειών που καταβάλλονται για την αντιµετώπιση των συνεπειών απÞ το ρωσικÞ εµπάργκο σε ευρωπαϊκά προϊÞντα ο κ. Κουγιάλησ συζήτησε µε τον Ύπατο Αρµοστή για την προοπτική να υπάρξουν εξαγωγέσ κυπριακών προϊÞντων Þπωσ τα εσπεριδοειδή, το ελαιÞλαδο αλλά και γαλακτοκοµικά προϊÞντα στην Ινδία. Η εισήγηση του Υπουργού αντιµετωπίστηκε θετικά απÞ τον Ύπατο Αρµοστή και οι δύο πλευρέσ θα εργαστούν προσ αυτή τη κατεύθυνση. Κατά την συνάντηση συζητήθηκαν επίσησ τρÞποι

συνεργασίασ µεταξύ Κύπρου – Ινδίασ στουσ τοµείσ τησ Γεωργίασ και του Περιβάλλοντοσ. Ο ΥπουργÞσ και ο Ύπατοσ Αρµοστήσ συµφώνησαν πωσ η αντιµετώπιση του φαινοµένου τησ κλιµατικήσ αλλαγήσ αποτελεί προτεραιÞτητα για Þλα κράτη και προσ αυτή τη κατεύθυνση Κύπροσ και Ινδία θα υπογράψουν Σχέδιο Συνεργασίασ το οποίο θα προωθήσει ουσιαστικά το υφιστάµενο ΠρÞγραµµα Συνεργασίασ στουσ τοµείσ του Περιβάλλοντοσ µεταξύ των δύο χωρών.

ªÂ ˘ÔÙÚÔÊ›· ÛÙËÓ ∫›Ó· ·fiÊÔÈÙÔ˜ ÙÔ˘ ∂˘Úˆ·˚ÎÔ‡ ¶·ÓÂÈÛÙËÌ›Ô˘ Συνάντηση µε τον Πρύτανη του Ευρωπαϊκού Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου, καθηγητή Κώστα Γουλιάµο είχε ο µεταπτυχιακÞσ φοιτητήσ στην Κίνα, Μάριοσ Ιακώβου. Ο κ. Ιακώβου είναι απÞφοιτοσ του Ευρωπαϊκού Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου και κέρδισε την υποτροφία που πρÞσφερε στο Πανεπιστήµιο, η κυβέρνηση τησ Λαϊκήσ ∆ηµοκρατίασ τησ Κίνασ στην Κύπρο. Ο κ. Ιακώβου παρακολουθεί µεταπτυχιακÞ πρÞγραµµα στο τµήµα Information and Communication Engineering, µε εξειδίκευση στα ∆ίκτυα στο Πανεπιστήµιο UESTC (University of Electronic Science and Technology of China) στην πÞλη Chengdu τησ επαρχία Sichuan. Το εν λÞγω Πανεπιστήµιο είναι το πρώτο Πανεπιστήµιο στην Κίνα που ίδρυσε τµήµα στον τοµέα

του Electronic and Information Science and Technology και ένα απÞ τα πιο διακεκριµένα, ακÞµη και σήµερα, στον τοµέα αυτÞ. Ο συνολικÞσ αριθµÞσ των διεθνών σπουδαστών δεν ξεπερνά τουσ 400 σε ένα Πανεπιστήµιο που αριθµεί πέραν των τριάντα χιλιάδων φοιτητών. Κατά τη διάρκεια τησ επίσκεψήσ του στο ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Πανεπιστήµιο Κύπρου, ο µεταπτυχιακÞσ φοιτητήσ κ. Μάριοσ Ιακώβου µοιράστηκε τισ εµπειρίεσ του, απÞ τουσ πρώτουσ µήνεσ φοίτησήσ του, στο Πανεπιστήµιο UESTC. Ùπωσ ανέφερε «είναι µια εµπειρία ζωήσ, σε µια τεράστια χώρα, µε πληθυσµÞ που πλησιάζει ασύλληπτα νούµερα για τα δικά µασ δεδοµένα, µε πανάρχαια Ιστορία και µοναδική κουλτούρα». Ο κ. Ιακώβου αναφέρθηκε στην «προσήλωση των κινεζικών πανεπιστηµίων στον τοµέα τησ έρευνασ και τησ καινοτοµίασ». Ùπωσ είπε, τα ερευνητικά κέντρα στελεχώνονται απÞ µεγάλουσ αριθµούσ καθηγητών πανεπιστηµίου, προπτυχιακούσ, µεταπτυχιακούσ και διδακτορικούσ φοιτητέσ. Ùπωσ επεσήµανε ο κ. Ιακώβου «η Κίνα είναι µια χώρα διαφορετική απ’ Þλεσ τισ άλλεσ. Ο τρÞποσ σκέψησ, οι παραστάσεισ που έχουν οι γηγενείσ κάτοικοι, οι εµπειρίεσ και ο τρÞποσ ζωήσ τουσ, ουδεµία σχέση ή οµοιÞτητα έχουν µε τον ∆υτικÞ κÞσµο, πράγµα που κάνει την Þλη εµπειρία διαβίωσησ και φοίτησησ εκεί, ακÞµη πιο συναρπαστική». Τον εντυπωσίασε επίσησ, το επίπεδο οργάνωσησ και εθελοντισµού στο Πανεπιστήµιο. Οµάδεσ εθελοντών για παράδειγµα ανέλαβαν απÞ την πρώτη µέρα, να τον διευκολύνουν, µέχρι να εγκλιµατιστεί στο νέο ακαδηµαϊκÞ περιβάλλον και στον κινέζικο τρÞπο ζωήσ.

βει καθήκοντα στην Ancoria Insurance, διετέλεσε ∆ιευθυντήσ Ανάπτυξησ Εργασιών στο Τµήµα του Wealth Management τησ Eurobank (Κύπρου). O κ. Αναστάση έχει ΜεταπτυχιακÞ στα Χρηµατοοικονοµικά απÞ το London Business School.

H Ancoria Insurance, εδώ και 27 χρÞνια παρέχει στουσ πελάτεσ τησ, µέσω ασφαλιστικού συµβολαίου, αποταµιευτικά και επενδυτικά προϊÞντα µε διαφανείσ πρακτικέσ και καινoτÞµεσ λύσεισ για να διαµορφώνουν το µέλλον που ονειρεύονται.

Transavia: ∫‡ÚÔ˜ - √ÏÏ·Ó‰›· Ì €79 Ë ÌÔÓ‹ ‰È·‰ÚÔÌ‹ ΛÞγω αυξηµένησ ζήτησησ, αφού η Κύπροσ αποτελεί αγαπηµένο προορισµÞ των Ολλανδών, η Τransavia αποφάσισε να εντάξει τη Λάρνακα στο δίκτυο των προγραµµατισµένων πτήσεων τησ. Η Transavia είναι η πρώτη αεροπορική εταιρεία που πραγµατοποιεί απευθείασ πτήσεισ Λάρνακα-Άµστερνταµ δυο φορέσ τη βδοµάδα. Το δροµολÞγιο γίνεται και σε συνδυασµÞ µε ενδιάµεση στάση στην Πάφο, επίσησ δυο φορέσ τη βδοµάδα. Οι πτήσεισ προσ Άµστερνταµ πραγµατοποιούνται σε κοινÞ κωδικÞ µε την KLM γεγονÞσ που επιτρέπει στουσ επιβάτεσ να πετάξουν απÞ Κύπρο µέσω Άµστερνταµ, σε Þλουσ τουσ διεθνείσ προορισµούσ τησ KLM. Τα εισιτήρια θα πωλούνταν µε προσωρινÞ ναύλο προσφοράσ στα 79 ευρώ (απλή µετάβαση, πλέον 5 ευρώ τέλοσ κράτησησ). Πέραν του νέου δροµολογίου Λάρνακα-Άµστερνταµ, η Transavia θα ξεκινήσει και πτήσεισ απÞ Τελ Αβίβ και Μάλτα προσ Άµστερνταµ. ∆είτε αναλυτικά τα δροµολÞγια τησ εταιρείασ στην ιστοσελίδα www.transavia.com. Το Άµστερνταµ, σύµφωνα µε τουσ ταξιδιωτικούσ οδηγούσ Lonely Planet, έχει ψηφιστεί ωσ η δεύτερη πιο µοντέρνα πÞλη στον κÞσµο. Με τα παγκÞσµιασ φήµησ κανάλια, µουσεία και γκαλερί, τα πολυσύχναστα µπαρ, εστιατÞρια και νυκτερινά στέκια, αποτελεί τέλειο προορισµÞ για σύντοµεσ εξορµήσεισ. Είναι επίσησ ιδανική πÞλη για επιχειρηµατικέσ συναλλαγέσ προσφέροντασ διαρκώσ νέεσ προκλήσεισ και ευκαιρίεσ. Στο Άµστερνταµ τα πάντα είναι πιθανά! Η Transavia θα προσφέρει επίσησ το καλοκαίρι και απευθείασ πτήσεισ απÞ τη Λάρνακα στο Παρίσι - αεροδρÞµιο Orly. H Transavia έχει έδρεσ τη Γαλλία και Ολλανδία και παρέχει προγραµµατισµένεσ και ναυλωµένεσ πτήσεισ σε 160 προορισµούσ στην Ευρώπη και τη ΜεσÞγειο, καλύπτοντασ ανάγκεσ, τÞσο επαγγελµατικέσ Þσο και ψυχαγωγικέσ. Η Transavia χαρακτηρίζεται απÞ φιλική και ποιοτική εξυπηρέτηση, προσφέροντασ εισιτήρια χαµηλού κÞστουσ και επιπρÞσθετεσ ταξιδιωτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ µε µικρή επιπλέον χρέωση. Η transavia.com πετά προσ Άµστερνταµ, ΡÞτερνταµ, ΑϊντχÞβεν και ΓκρÞνινγκεν καθώσ και προσ Παρίσι, Νάντ, Λυών, Λίλ και Στρασβούργο. Η transavia.com µεταφέρει περίπου 9,5 εκατοµµύρια επιβάτεσ ετησίωσ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

financialmirror.com | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5

∞Ó·Ù˘ÍȷΤ˜ ÚÔÔÙÈΤ˜ ÁÈ· ÙË §¿Úӷη ∞Ó‰Ú¤·˜ §Ô˘ÚÔ˘Ù˙È¿Ù˘ ∆ήµαρχος Λάρνακας Οι φορείσ τησ Τοπικήσ Αυτοδιοίκησησ, παρά το γεγονÞσ Þτι έχουν υποστεί περισσÞτερο απÞ οποιονδήποτε άλλο θεσµÞ τησ Πολιτείασ τισ συνέπειεσ τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ, αποδεικνύουν Þτι µπορούν, αν δράσουν αποφασιστικά και οργανωµένα, να διαδραµατίσουν πρωταγωνιστικÞ ρÞλο στη δηµιουργία συνθηκών βιώσιµησ οικονοµικήσ ανάπτυξησ και διασφάλισησ τησ κοινωνικήσ συνοχήσ. Στο ∆ήµο Λάρνακασ, γνωρίζαµε απÞ την αρχή Þτι το έργο που αναλαµβάναµε µέσα στισ δοσµένεσ αντίξοεσ οικονοµικέσ συνθήκεσ δεν θα ήταν εύκολο. Παρ’ Þλα αυτά, οι επίµονεσ και συντονισµένεσ προσπάθειέσ µασ, οι οποίεσ στηρίχθηκαν σε ένα συγκεκριµένο ρεαλιστικÞ αναπτυξιακÞ σχεδιασµÞ και τεκµηριωµένα επιχειρήµατα, αρχίζουν να καρποφορούν. Το τελευταίο διάστηµα γίνονται ουσιαστικά βήµατα και δηµιουργούνται σιγά-σιγά οι προϋποθέσεισ για να επιστρέψει η πÞλη µασ σε αναπτυξιακή τροχιά. Το πάγιο αίτηµα τησ πÞλησ για µετακίνηση των διυλιστηρίων και των εγκαταστάσεων πετρελαιοειδών και υγραερίου, βαίνει προσ ικανοποίηση. ΕντÞσ του πρώτου εξαµήνου του 2015 θα µετακινηθούν τα κρατικά αποθέµατα απÞ τον χώρο του διυλιστηρίου, ενώ στη συνέχεια θα ακολουθήσουν οι εγκαταστάσεισ του υγραερίου και των εταιρειών. Οι ενδείξεισ που έχουµε αυτή τη στιγµή, ωσ προσ την υλοποίηση των χρονοδιαγραµµάτων, είναι ενθαρρυντικέσ. Βασική µασ επιδίωξη είναι η Λάρνακα να αποκτήσει µια ενιαία παραλία και η περιοχή να καταστεί, µέσω µιασ ολικήσ ανάπλασησ και ανάπτυξησ, πÞλοσ έλξησ ντÞπιων και ξένων επενδυτών. Η πρÞσφατη απÞφαση του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου για εγκατάσταση του Ινστιτούτου Υδρογονανθράκων, του Κέντρου Ωκεανογραφίασ και του Τµήµατοσ Χηµικών

Μηχανικών του Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου στο χώρο του παλαιού Λεπροκοµείου στη Λάρνακα, συνιστά µια πολύ σηµαντική εξέλιξη για την πÞλη. Τα έργα αυτά αναµένεται να δώσουν πνοή και ζωντάνια στη Λάρνακα, καθιστώντασ την ωσ πÞλη επιλογήσ ιδιαίτερα για τουσ νέουσ, αλλά και για εργαζÞµενουσ και οικογένειεσ. Εξίσου σηµαντική για την πÞλη µασ είναι και η απÞφαση του Υπουργικού Συµβουλίου για δηµιουργία, στον υπÞλοιπο χώρο του παλαιού λεπροκοµείου, του Εθνικού Πάρκου Λάρνακασ. Το έργο θα αναδείξει το µοναδικÞ οικοσύστηµα τησ αλυκήσ και τον περιβαλλοντικÞ πλούτο που υπάρχει στην περιοχή. ΣτÞχοσ µασ είναι η µετατροπή του χώρου σε µια Þαση χαλάρωσησ, υγείασ και ψυχαγωγίασ. Πολλαπλά οφέλη αναµένεται να φέρει και η ανέγερση πεντάστερου, υπερπολυτελούσ ξενοδοχείου στην παραλία των Φοινικούδων. ΠρÞκειται για ένα έργο που θα δώσει αναπτυξιακή ώθηση στην πÞλη, αναβαθµίζοντασ σηµαντικά το τουριστικÞ µασ προϊÞν, δηµιουργώντασ νέεσ θέσεισ εργασίασ και βελτιώνοντασ το επιχειρηµατικÞ κλίµα. ΤαυτÞχρονα, αρκετά έργα υποδοµήσ που βρίσκονται σε τροχιά ολοκλήρω-

σησ, Þπωσ η ανάπλαση των οδών Πιαλέ Πασιά και Γεώργιου Χριστοδουλίδη, και η ανάπλαση των πλατειών Ευρώπησ και Παλλάσ, βελτιώνουν σηµαντικά την εικÞνα τησ πÞλησ, ενισχύοντασ ταυτÞχρονα τισ προσπάθειεσ για οικονοµική ανάπτυξη, προσέλκυσησ επενδυτικού ενδιαφέροντοσ και δηµιουργίασ νέων θέσεων εργασίασ. ΠρÞκειται για µία εναλλακτική µορφή τουρισµού που συµβάλλει στην αντιµετώπιση του προβλήµατοσ τησ εποχικÞτητασ, την αύξηση τησ κατά κεφαλήν δαπάνησ και του επαναλαµβανÞµενου τουρισµού. Σε συνέχεια των διοργανώσεων παγκÞσµιασ εµβέλειασ που φιλοξένησε ο ∆ήµοσ τα τελευταία δύο χρÞνια, εντÞσ του 2015 προγραµµατίζονται σηµαντικέσ διεθνείσ διοργανώσεισ. Μεταξύ άλλων, οι ΠαγκÞσµιοι Αγώνεσ Σκοποβολήσ, οι διεθνείσ ποδηλατικοί αγώνεσ, το διεθνέσ ποδοσφαιρικÞ τουρνουά Cyprus Women’s Cup, τρία διεθνή πρωταθλήµατα αντισφαίρισησ, η Ευρωπαϊκή Πανεπιστηµιάδα Beach Volley και οι αγώνεσ Boules (ένα άθληµα ιδιαίτερα δηµοφιλέσ µεταξύ των Σκανδιναβών). Ο ∆ήµοσ Λάρνακασ παραµένει ασφαλώσ προσηλωµένοσ και στο έργο τησ ενιαίασ ανάπτυξησ λιµανιού-µαρίνασ. ΕυχÞµαστε η νέα παράταση που έχει δοθεί απÞ την κυβέρνηση στην Κοινοπραξία Ζήνων, να είναι αρκετή για να επιτευχθεί η συµφωνία µεταξύ των δύο µερών. Σε περίπτωση που ναυαγήσει οριστικά η προσπάθεια τησ κοινοπραξίασ Ζήνων, κάτι που απευχÞµαστε, Þλεσ οι εναλλακτικέσ επιλογέσ θα συζητηθούν σε ειδική συνεδρία τησ ολοµέλειασ του ∆ηµοτικού Συµβουλίου και τησ Επιτροπήσ Ανάπτυξησ Λάρνακασ. Πάντοτε πίστευα Þτι ζούµε σε µια πÞλη µε µεγάλεσ δυνατÞτητεσ και εξαιρετικέσ προοπτικέσ. Το ζητούµενο είναι να τισ αξιοποιήσουµε. Ωσ ∆ήµοσ, θα συνεχίσουµε να διεκδικούµε συγκροτηµένα και αποφασιστικά Þλα εκείνα που θεωρούµε Þτι η πÞλη µασ δικαιούται. Μέχρι να φθάσουµε στον τελικÞ µασ προορισµÞ, που δεν είναι άλλοσ απÞ την ανάπτυξη και την ευηµερία.

The America way ª¿ÚÈÔ˜ ª·˘Ú›‰Ë˜ Οικονοµολόγος, Βουλευτής Κερύνειας Η προτροπή του Αµερικανού Προέδρου Barack Obama προσ την Ευρώπη για περισσÞτερη ανάπτυξη και λιγÞτερη λιτÞτητα ενθαρρύνει τισ δυνάµεισ που είναι αντίθετεσ στην λιτÞτητα και στην αυστηρή δηµοσιονοµική πειθαρχεία που επιβάλλει η νέα οικονοµική διακυβέρνηση τησ ευρωζώνησ. Ο προϋπολογισµÞσ τησ οµοσπονδιακήσ κυβέρνησησ των ΗΠΑ προβλέπει δαπάνεσ ύψουσ $4 τρισ για το 2015 σηµαντικά αυξηµένο απÞ τον προϋπολογισµÞ του 2014 που ήταν $3.5 τρισ. Οι προβλεπÞµενεσ δαπάνεσ αποτελούν το 20% του Ακαθάριστου Εγχώριου ΠροϊÞντοσ (ΑΕΠ). Για σκοπούσ σύγκρισησ, το ανάλογο ποσοστÞ στην Κύπρο για το 2015 θα είναι 39% του ΑΕΠ. Οι αυξηµένεσ δαπάνεσ θα διατεθούν για έργα υποδοµήσ σε ολÞκληρη τη χώρα και για αυξηµένεσ παροχέσ και φοροελαφρύνσεισ που απευθύνονται στα µεσαία εισοδηµατικά στρώµατα. Η αύξηση των δαπανών θα χρηµατοδοτηθεί απÞ φορολογίεσ στα κέρδη απÞ το εξωτερικÞ των Αµερικάνικων πολυεθνικών εταιρειών και απÞ την αύξηση του φÞρου στα κεφαλαιουχικά κέρδη απÞ 23.8% στο 28%. Ωσ γνωστÞν, Αµερικάνικοι κολοσσοί εφαρµÞζουν «φορολογικά κÞλπα», επιλέγοντασ να φορολογούνται σε φορολογικούσ παραδείσουσ, µε αποτέλεσµα πληρώνουν πολύ χαµηλÞ φÞρο στισ ΗΠΑ. Η κυβέρνηση προτείνει Þπωσ τα κέρδη που φορολογούνται εκτÞσ ΗΠΑ να φορολογούνται

επιπρÞσθετα µε 19%. Μετά και την σηµαντική αύξηση των δαπανών, το δηµοσιονοµικÞ έλλειµµα των Ηνωµένων Πολιτειών δεν αναµένεται να υπερβεί το 2.8% του Ακαθάριστου Εγχώριου ΠροϊÞντοσ, και αυτÞ διÞτι µαζί µε τισ δαπάνεσ αυξάνονται και τα έσοδα, λÞγω τησ ανάπτυξησ που απολαµβάνει η οικονοµία. Το δηµÞσιο χρέοσ των ΗΠΑ ωσ ποσοστÞ του ΑΕΠ έχει ξεπεράσει το 100% αλλά η χώρα µπορεί να δανείζεται απÞ τισ αγορέσ µε επιτÞκιο 1.8%, διÞτι οι επενδυτέσ έχουν εµπιστοσύνη στην Αµερικάνικη οικονοµία και πιστεύουν Þτι θα πάρουν τα χρήµατα τουσ πίσω. Οι Κινέζοι, οι Ιάπωνεσ και οι Άραβεσ συνεχίζουν να προτιµούν τα Αµερικάνικα κρατικά οµÞλογα. Ουσιαστικά η κυβέρνηση των δηµοκρατικών στισ ΗΠΑ επιδιώκει µια εσωτερική ανακατανοµή του εθνικού πλούτου φορολογώντασ του πλούσιουσ προσ Þφελοσ τησ µεσαίασ τάξησ αλλά και ολÞκληρησ τησ οικονοµίασ, αφού η πλειοψηφία των εξοικονοµήσεων δαπανάται για υποδοµέσ, Þπωσ οδικÞ δίκτυο, σιδηρÞδροµουσ, τηλεπικοινωνίεσ, έξυπνα δίκτυα µεταφοράσ ηλεκτρικήσ ενέργειασ, ανανεώσιµεσ πηγέσ ενέργειασ, δαπάνεσ για την υγεία, την εκπαίδευση κλπ. ΑυτÞ είναι που ζητούν και οι χώρεσ του ΝÞτου στην Ευρώπη. Η συνταγή που ακολουθεί η Αµερική είναι ιδανική για την οικονοµία τησ Ευρωζώνησ, η οποία υποφέρει απÞ στασιµÞτητα και αποπληθωρισµÞ. Κορυφαίοι οικονοµολÞγοι εισηγούνται Þτι Þταν µια οικονοµία βρίσκεται σε ύφεση, το κράτοσ θα πρέπει να παρεµβαίνει και να αυξάνει τισ δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ σε υποδοµέσ και φοροελαφρύνσεισ στα νοικοκυριά και στισ επιχειρήσεισ. Το πρÞβληµα είναι Þτι τα περισσÞτερα ευρωπαϊκά κράτη, κυρίωσ αυτά του ΝÞτου, δεν έχουν περιθώρια δανεισµού διÞτι έχουν φτάσε στα Þρια τουσ και οι αγορέσ δεν τισ

δανείζουν. Ο καλύτεροσ τρÞποσ για τισ χώρεσ του ΝÞτου να ξεφύγουν απÞ το φαύλο κύκλο τησ ύφεσησ και τησ ανεργίασ, είναι να ακολουθήσουν το παράδειγµα τησ Αµερικήσ, δηλαδή να επιχειρήσουν µια εσωτερική ανακατανοµή του εθνικού εισοδήµατοσ. Μπορεί δηλαδή µια χώρα Þπωσ την Ελλάδα και την Κύπρο να χρησιµοποιήσουν τα φορολογικά έσοδα, Þχι για να συντηρούν ένα τεράστιο, πανάκριβο και υδροκέφαλο δηµÞσιο, αλλά για να επενδύουν στην ανάπτυξη.

¢ÈÔÚÈÛÌfi˜ ‰‡Ô ÂÎηı·ÚÈÛÙÒÓ ÁÈ· ∫˘ÚȷΤ˜ ∞ÂÚÔÁÚ·Ì̤˜ Ο Αυγουστίνοσ Παπαθωµάσ, συνέταιροσ στην Grant Thornton Cyprus Limited, και ο David Dunckley, συνέταιροσ στην Grant Thornton UK LLP, διορίστηκαν ωσ απÞ κοινού εκκαθαριστέσ των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών ∆ηµÞσια Λτδ κατά τισ συνελεύσεισ των πιστωτών και των µετÞχων τησ Εταιρείασ που πραγµατοποιήθηκε την 30η Ιανουαρίου 2015. Οι συνελεύσεισ πραγµατοποιήθηκαν µετά την απÞφαση αναστολήσ των εργασιών τησ εταιρείασ που λήφθηκε απÞ το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Εταιρείασ, και την ενεργοποίηση τησ διαδικασίασ για εκούσια εκκαθάριση, που προέκυψαν ωσ αποτέλεσµα τησ αρνητικήσ απÞφασησ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ

Επιτροπήσ αναφορικά µε το θέµα των κρατικών ενισχύσεων προσ την Εταιρεία. Σύµφωνα µε τον ΝÞµο, τα κύρια καθήκοντα των εκκαθαριστών είναι: - Να ρευστοποιήσουν τα περιουσιακά στοιχεία τησ Εταιρείασ µε τον πιο αποδοτικÞ τρÞπο, προσ Þφελοσ των πιστωτών τησ Εταιρείασ, και - Να εξετάσουν και εκεί που ενδείκνυται να διευθετήσουν τισ απαιτήσεισ των πιστωτών και να διανέµουν τα διαθέσιµα περιουσιακά στοιχεία τησ Εταιρείασ, πάντα σύµφωνα µε τον ΝÞµο.

Επίσησ, κατά τη Γενική Συνέλευση των Πιστωτών, διορίστηκε πενταµελήσ Επιτροπή Επιθεώρησησ η οποία θα επιβλέπει το έργο των εκκαθαριστών. ΕνÞψει τησ σηµασίασ και δυσκολίασ τησ εκκαθάρισησ των Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών ∆ηµÞσια Λτδ, που θα επηρεάσει τÞσο τουσ πιστωτέσ, Þσο και τουσ εργοδοτουµένουσ τησ Εταιρείασ, οι εκκαθαριστέσ θα κρατούν Þλουσ τουσ εµπλεκοµένουσ ενήµερουσ µέσω ανακοινώσεων προσ τον Τύπο και άλλωσ πωσ. Θα υπάρξει πλήρησ συνεργασία µε τον Επίσηµο Παραλήπτη καθώσ και µε Þλουσ τουσ άλλουσ αρµÞδιουσ φορείσ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com

∏ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· Ó· ›ÛÂÈ ÙȘ ·ÁÔÚ¤˜ fi¯È ÙËÓ ª¤ÚÎÂÏ ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Για άλλη µια φορά, την τέταρτη την τελευταία 5ετία, η Ελλάδα βρίσκεται στο κέντρο του παγκÞσµιου ενδιαφέροντοσ. Με µια Þµωσ ειδοποιÞ διαφορά. Αυτή την φορά τισ εξελίξεισ προκάλεσε η ίδια η Ελληνική πλευρά η οποία µετά απÞ 5 χρÞνια βαθιάσ ύφεσησ, εξαθλίωσησ, κατάθλιψησ και παραβίαση κάθε αρχήσ αξιοπρέπειασ και εθνικήσ κυριαρχίασ αποφάσισε να πει «Ωσ εδώ και µη παρέκει». Η νέα Ελληνική κυβέρνηση του Αλέξη Τσίπρα µε το πιο επίσηµο τρÞπο διαµηνύει στουσ Ευρωπαίουσ αξιωµατούχουσ και στουσ δανειστέσ τησ χώρασ πωσ δεν αναγνωρίζει πλέον την ΤρÞικα και τισ µνηµονιακέσ, καταστροφικέσ (για την κοινωνία) απαιτήσεισ τησ οι οποίεσ το µÞνο που πέτυχαν είναι την αφαίµαξη τησ Ελληνικήσ κοινωνίασ την ίδια ώρα που η χώρα το µÞνο που παράγει είναι χρέοσ. Η Þλη προσπάθεια δηλαδή τησ εντεταλµένησ απÞ τουσ Γερµανούσ τρÞικασ, το µÞνο που πέτυχε είναι να µετατρέψει µια δηµοσιονοµική κρίση σε κρίση ρευστÞτητασ και χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ασφυξίασ. Η κρίση χρέουσ εκ του αποτελέσµατοσ αποδεικνύεται περίτρανα πωσ δεν λύνεται µε µονοδιάστατη λιτÞτητα αλλά µε ένα ευρωπαϊκÞ σχέδιο ανάπτυξησ το οποίο θα βασίζεται στισ βασικέσ αρχέσ τισ ΕΕ.

Ùλα αυτά εν ολίγοισ διαµήνυσε ο νέοσ υπουργÞσ οικονοµικών τησ Ελλάδασ κ. Βαρουφάκησ. Σίγουρα µπορεί να το έκανε µε λίγο άκοµψο τρÞπο στην πρώτη του συνάντηση µε τον γνωστÞ και µη εξαιρετέο Mr. Daiseblum. Αλλά απÞ την άλλη απÞ την στιγµή που η Ελληνική πλευρά αποφάσισε να έρθει σε σύγκρουση µε το status quo η σύγκρουση αυτή δεν µπορεί να γίνει µε αγκαλίτσεσ και φυλάκια Þπωσ µασ συνήθισαν µέχρι τώρα Þλοι οι πολιτικÞ ηγέτεσ τησ ΕΕ οι οποίοι µπροστά στην Μέρκελ και τα πιÞνια τησ υποκλίνονται. ΑπÞ την άλλη Þµωσ απαιτείται µεγάλη προσοχή. Προσοχή επειδή η Ελλάδα απÞ µÞνη τησ έχει ελάχιστεσ πιθανÞτητεσ να πετύχει τουσ στÞχουσ τησ. Η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται συµµαχίεσ. Συµµαχίεσ για να πείσει πρώτα απÞ Þλα τισ αγορέσ και µετά την Μέρκελ. Ο Κ. Βαρουφάκησ και η παρέα του πρέπει να προστατέψουν σαν κÞρη οφθαλµού την Ελλάδα απÞ την δύνη των αγορών. Ασ έχουν στο µυαλÞ τουσ τι έπαθε η Αργεντινή, η Κύπροσ και ειδικά η Ρωσία που αγνÞησε το αντίκτυπο των αγορών στισ ενέργειεσ τησ. ΕιδικÞτερα η τελευταία, θα λέγαµε πλέον πωσ πληρώνει µε το χειρÞτερο τρÞπο, την ιµπεριαλιστική τησ στάση να εισβάλει µε τον πιο «βάρβαρο» τρÞπο στην Ουκρανία. Μια ενέργεια που έχει µετατρέψει την Ρωσική οικονοµία µπαλάκι στα χέρια των αγορών οι οποίεσ την κτυπούν ανελέητα εδώ και έξι µήνεσ µε τισ συνέπειεσ να είναι καταστροφικέσ για την άλλοτε άτρωτη Ρωσία του πανίσχυρου Μπούτιν. Μια Ρωσία που έχει απολέσει πέραν του 30% του εθνικού τησ πλούτου

µέσα σε µÞλισ έξι µήνεσ, βρίσκεται εκτÞσ αγορών εδώ και πέντε µήνεσ ενώ είναι θέµα χρÞνου να υποβαθµιστεί και σε default απÞ τουσ διεθνούσ οίκουσ. Άρα καλά είναι να έχει στα υπÞψη τησ η Ελλάδα το τι µπορεί να πάθει η µικρή και ταλαιπωρηµένη Ελλάδα αν βρεθεί εκτεθειµένη και αποµονωµένη απÞ τισ αγορέσ. Ασ µην λησµονούν τι έπαθε στο πρÞσφατο παρελθÞν ο προκάτοχοσ του Κ.Τσίπρα, ο Κ. Σαµαράσ, Þταν οι ελληνικέσ του εξυπνάδεσ για έξοδο απÞ το µνηµÞνιο θεωρήθηκαν απÞ τισ αγορέσ ενάντιεσ στα ευρωπαϊκά συµφέροντα και έστειλαν την Ελλάδα τιµωρία στην γωνία. Ùταν η Ελλάδα µονοµερώσ αποφάσισε για πρÞωρη έξοδο απÞ το µνηµÞνιο το ∆ΝΤ και η ΕΕ οι αγορέσ αποφάσισαν να τιµωρήσουν την Ελλάδα εκτοξεύοντασ τα CDS. CDS (credit default swaps) τα οποία ασ µην ξεχνάµε ήταν η κερκÞπορτα τησ Ελλάδοσ το 2012. Εκ των υστέρων ο Κ. Σαµαράσ, µπροστά στο φάσµα τησ οικονοµικήσ κατάρρευσησ αναγκάστηκε να αποσύρει τισ αρχικέσ του προ-

θέσεισ για έξοδο απÞ το µνηµÞνιο, ενέργεια που στο τέλοσ του στοίχισε και την συντριβή στισ πρÞσφατεσ εκλογέσ. Με το πάθηµα Σαµαρά στο µυαλÞ πρέπει να πορευτεί η νέα κυβέρνηση. Σίγουρα ο ΜερκελισµÞσ στην Ευρώπη θα πρέπει να πέσει αλλά χρειάζεται συντονισµένη προσπάθεια κρατών µελών και πολύ σηµαντικÞ σε αυτή την συµµαχία να συµµετάσχουν µεγάλα κράτη Þπωσ η Γαλλία, η Ιταλία και η Ισπανία. ΑκÞµα και το πρÞσφατο άνοιγµα του Μπαράκ Οµπάµα προσ την Ελλάδα είναι µια θετική ένδειξη αν και διακυβεύονται πολλά πίσω απÞ αυτή την παρέµβαση - έκπληξη και χρειάζεται µεγάλη προσοχή. Οι Γερµανοί δεν είναι εύκολοσ αντίπαλοσ και κατά πάσα πιθανÞτητα Þχι µÞνο θα απορρίψουν Þλεσ τισ απαιτήσεισ τησ Ελληνικήσ πλευράσ αλλά αντιθέτωσ θα πρωτοστατήσουν σε µια συντονισµένη προσπάθεια να πείσουν τισ αγορέσ να επιτεθούν στην Ελλάδα. Οι Γερµανοί Þπωσ τουσ έχουµε ζήσει εδώ και πέντε χρÞνια που ξέσπασε η κρίση δεν κάνουν πίσω ούτε στα πιο βασικά ενώ δεν διστάζουν ακÞµα και να απειλούν για αποχώρηση τησ ίδιασ τησ Γερµανίασ, απÞ την ζώνη του Ευρώ αν πιεστούν να εγκαταλείψουν την πολιτική τησ λιτÞτητασ. Βέβαια Þτι και να λένε οι Γερµανοί αυτή την «µάχη» θα την κρίνουν οι αγορέσ. Εάν και εφÞσον οι αγορέσ πειστούν απÞ την Ελληνική πρωτοβουλία, θα κερδηθούν Þχι µÞνο οι εντυπώσεισ αλλά και το παιχνίδι αφού Þπωσ λένε και οι αγγλοσάξονεσ φίλοι µασ «you win the markets you win the game».

∏ °ÂÚÌ·Ó›· «·ÔÁ›ˆÛ» ÙËÓ ÔÈÎÔÓÔÌ›· Ù˘ ̤۷ ÛÙËÓ ÎÚ›ÛË Εκρηκτική αύξηση σηµείωσε πέρυσι το συνολικÞ πλεÞνασµα του εµπορικού ισοζυγίου τησ Γερµανίασ (συµπεριλαµβάνονται αγαθά, υπηρεσίεσ κ.λπ.), Þπωσ αναφέρεται σε άρθρο του Γιώργου ΠαυλÞπουλου στην Hµερησία. Συγκεκριµένα, σύµφωνα µε τουσ υπολογισµούσ του ινστιτούτου Ifo τουσ οποίουσ δηµοσίευσε στην ιστοσελίδα τησ η εφηµερίδα Die Welt, το πλεÞνασµα άγγιξε πέρυσι τα 220 δισ ευρώ (κάπου 285 δισ δολάρια), ήταν δηλαδή µεγαλύτερο κατά σχεδÞν 30 δισ σε σχέση µε το 2013 και, ούτε λίγο ούτε πολύ, έφτασε να αντιστοιχεί στο 7,5% του ΑΕΠ τησ ισχυρÞτερησ οικονοµίασ τησ Ευρώπησ. Οι επιδÞσεισ τησ Γερµανίασ προκαλούν ακÞµη µεγαλύτερη εντύπωση εάν συγκριθούν µε εκείνεσ άλλων εξαγωγικών χωρών του πλανήτη που καταγράφουν θετικÞ ισοζύγιο. Κι αυτÞ διÞτι το περυσινÞ πλεÞνασµά τησ είναι µεγαλύτερο απÞ το άθροισµα των αντίστοιχων τησ Κίνασ (150 δισ δολάρια) και τησ Σαουδικήσ Αραβίασ (100 δισ δολάρια), δηλαδή των χωρών που βρίσκονται στη δεύτερη και τρίτη θέση του σχετικού πίνακα! Αξίζει, µάλιστα, να σηµειώσουµε Þτι οι αναλυτέσ του Ifo εκτιµούν Þτι το πλεÞνασµα θα αυξηθεί περαιτέρω φέτοσ και πιθανÞτατα να ξεπεράσει το 8% του ΑΕΠ, βοηθούσησ και τησ χαµηλήσ τιµήσ του πετρελαίου και τησ περαιτέρω υποχώρησησ τησ ισοτιµίασ του ευρώ έναντι του δολαρίου. Έτσι, εκτÞσ των άλλων, επιβεβαιώνονται οι πολύ καλέσ προοπτικέσ

για τη γερµανική οικονοµία, η οποία ούτωσ ή άλλωσ βρίσκεται σε πλεονεκτική θέση έναντι των υπÞλοιπων χωρών-µελών τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Αποδεικνύοντασ, για µια ακÞµη φορά, ποια είναι η χώρα που έχει ωφεληθεί τα µέγιστα απÞ την οικονοµική και χρηµατοπιστωτική κρίση των προηγούµενων ετών - δεν είναι τυχαίο, άλλωστε, Þτι η Γερµανία κατέθεσε και ενέκρινε για το 2015 τον πρώτο απολύτωσ ισοσκελισµένο προϋπολογισµÞ τησ, ο οποίοσ τελικά δεν αποκλείεται να βγει και πλεονασµατικÞσ. Την ίδια στιγµή, ωστÞσο, η εικÞνα αυτή αναµένεται να εντείνει τισ αντιδράσεισ των εταίρων του Βερολίνου. Άλλωστε, επί τησ ουσίασ, η περυσινή επίδοση τησ Γερµανίασ µπορεί να είναι καλÞ νέο για την ίδια, συνιστά Þµωσ µεγάλο κίνδυνο για τουσ υπÞλοιπουσ και συνολικά για τη σταθερÞτητα τησ Ευρωζώνησ. Ùπωσ έχει αναφερθεί επανειληµµένωσ, η ύπαρξη χωρών µε µεγάλα εµπορικά πλεονάσµατα προϋποθέτει Þτι ταυτÞχρονα υπάρχουν άλλεσ που απορροφούν τισ εξαγωγέσ τουσ µέσω ολοένα µεγαλύτερου δανεισµού. Είναι χαρακτηριστικÞ, εξάλλου, Þτι η ΚοµισιÞν (Þπωσ επίσησ ∆ΝΤ, ΟΟΣΑ και ΗΠΑ) θεωρεί τα υπερβολικά µεγάλα πλεονάσµατα τρεχουσών συναλλαγών - πρακτικά, αυτά που υπερβαίνουν το 6% του ΑΕΠ µιασ χώρασ- εξίσου επικίνδυνα µε τα γιγαντιαία ελλείµµατα.

Μάλιστα, τον Μάρτιο του 2014 η κυβέρνηση Μέρκελ δέχθηκε επίσηµη παρατήρηση απÞ τισ Βρυξέλλεσ, που απαίτησαν να τονωθούν επειγÞντωσ τÞσο οι δηµÞσιεσ επενδύσεισ Þσο και η εσωτερική ζήτηση, απειλώντασ µάλιστα Þτι σε αντίθετη περίπτωση ενδέχεται να επιβληθούν κυρώσεισ. Το Βερολίνο αντιτείνει Þτι απÞ το 2007 το πλεÞνασµα στο ισοζύγιο τρεχουσών συναλλαγών µε τουσ εταίρουσ του στην Ευρωζώνη ωσ ποσοστÞ του ΑΕΠ έχει µειωθεί πάνω απÞ 50% και Þτι στην παρούσα φάση η ανάπτυξη τησ γερµανικήσ «ατµοµηχανήσ» στηρίζεται περισσÞτερο στην εγχώρια ζήτηση παρά στισ εξαγωγέσ.

∏¶∞ - ¢È·Ù‹ÚËÛË Ù˘ ·Ó·Ù˘Íȷ΋˜ ‰˘Ó·ÌÈ΋˜ fiÊË ™Ù·‡ÚÔ˜ Ã’ ÃÚÈÛÙfiÊ Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd, Treasury Division Το ευρωπαϊκÞ νÞµισµα συνεχίζει την πτωτική του πορεία έναντι του αµερικανικού δολαρίου καθώσ τύγχανε χθεσ διαπραγµάτευσησ στο 1,1330. Η Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ κατά την σύσκεψη τησ νοµισµατικήσ τησ επιτροπήσ την περασµένη Τετάρτη διατήρησε αµετάβλητο το επιτÞκιο αναφοράσ, Þπωσ αναµενÞταν. Η Fed διαπιστώνει ισχυρή βελτίωση τησ απασχÞλησησ στισ ΗΠΑ και συνέχιση τησ οικονοµικήσ ανάπτυξησ. Συνολικά, διαφαίνεται Þτι η Οµοσπονδιακή Τράπεζα των ΗΠΑ εκτιµά Þτι η οικονοµική προοπτική τησ χώρασ είναι θετική, παρÞτι δεν προτίθεται άµεσα να αυξήσει το επιτÞκιο αναφοράσ. ΕπιπρÞσθετα, το ΑΕΠ στισ ΗΠΑ ενισχύθηκε σε ετησιοποιηµένη τριµηνιαία βάση στο δ’ τρίµηνο κατά 2,6% (εκτίµηση: 3%, γ’ τρίµηνο: 5%). Θετική συνεισφορά στην αύξηση του

ΑΕΠ είχαν η ιδιωτική κατανάλωση (2,87%), οι ιδιωτικέσ επενδύσεισ (1,2%), ενώ αρνητικÞ αντίκτυπο είχαν οι εξαγωγέσ (1,02%) και οι δηµÞσιεσ δαπάνεσ (-0,40%). Ο δείκτησ µεταποίησησ Chicago PMI ανήλθε τον Ιανουάριο στισ 59,4 µονάδεσ (εκτίµηση: 57,5, ∆εκέµβριοσ: 58,8, µέσοσ Þροσ 12 µηνών: 60,7). Σύµφωνα µε την τελική µέτρηση, ο δείκτησ καταναλωτικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ του Πανεπιστηµίου του Michigan διαµορφώθηκε τον Ιανουάριο στισ 98,1 µονάδεσ (∆εκέµβριοσ: 93,6), καταγράφοντασ υψηλÞ 11 ετών. Επίσησ, ο δείκτησ καταναλωτικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ ανήλθε τον Ιανουάριο σε υψηλÞ (102,9, εκτίµηση: 95,5, ∆εκέµβριοσ: 93,1) απÞ τον Αύγουστο του 2007 ενώ οι πωλήσεισ νέων κατοικιών ανήλθαν το ∆εκέµβριο σε υψηλÞ (481.000, εκτίµηση: 450.000, Νοέµβριοσ: 431.000) απÞ τον Ιούνιο του 2008. Οι παραγγελίεσ διαρκών καταναλωτικών αγαθών στισ ΗΠΑ κατέγραψαν το ∆εκέµβριο απροσδÞκητη υποχώρηση σε µηνιαία βάση τησ τάξεωσ του 3,4% (εκτίµηση: 0,3%, Νοέµβριοσ: -2,1%) και σε ετήσια βάση κατά 0,8% (εκτίµηση: 0,6%, Νοέµβριοσ: -1,3%). Συνολικά τα ανωτέρω, καταδεικνύουν Þτι η οικονοµία των ΗΠΑ διατηρεί αναπτυξιακή δυναµική, ενώ διαφαίνεται Þτι η ισχυροποίηση του δολαρίου

ΗΠΑ των προηγουµένων µηνών είχε αρνητικÞ αντίκτυπο στισ εξαγωγέσ. Στην Ευρωζώνη ο δείκτησ οικονοµικήσ εµπιστοσύνησ ενισχύθηκε τον Ιανουάριο στισ 101,2 µονάδεσ (εκτίµηση: 101,6, ∆εκέµβριοσ: 100,6, µέσοσ Þροσ 12 µηνών: 101,3). Το ποσοστÞ ανεργίασ υποχώρησε το ∆εκέµβριο σε χαµηλÞ (11,4%, εκτίµηση: 11,5%, Νοέµβριοσ: 11,5%) απÞ τον Αύγουστο του 2012, ωστÞσο εξακολουθεί να διαµορφώνεται σηµαντικά υψηλÞτερα του ιστορικού µέσου Þρου (9,4%). Σύµφωνα µε την εκτίµηση τησ Eurostat, ο δείκτησ τιµών καταναλωτή στην Ευρωζώνη κατέγραψε τον Ιανουάριο τη µεγαλύτερη υποχώρηση σε ετήσια βάση (-0,6%, εκτίµηση: -0,5%, ∆εκέµβριοσ: 0,2%) απÞ τον Ιούλιο του 2009, καταδεικνύοντασ Þτι έχουν δηµιουργηθεί συνθήκεσ αποπληθωρισµού στην Ευρωζώνη. Σύµφωνα µε την τελική µέτρηση, ο δείκτησ µεταποίησησ PMI στην Ευρωζώνη διαµορφώθηκε τον Ιανουάριο στισ 51 µονάδεσ (∆εκέµβριοσ: 50,6), Þπωσ αναµενÞταν. Αυτή την εβδοµάδα ανακοινώνονται οι δείκτεσ τιµών παραγωγού ∆εκεµβρίου στην Ευρωζώνη και οι βιοµηχανικέσ παραγγελίεσ ∆εκεµβρίου στισ ΗΠΑ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

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√ µ·ÚÔ˘Ê¿Î˘ ı¤ÏÂÈ Ó· ηٷÚÁ‹ÛÂÈ ÙÔ «ÎÔ‡ÚÂÌ·» Ολική στροφή κάνει η ελληνική κυβέρνηση στο θέµα τησ διαγραφήσ του χρέουσ. Ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών Γιάνησ Βαρουφάκησ, µιλώντασ στουσ Financial Times επιβεβαίωσε την αλλαγή τακτικήσ απÞ την πλευρά τησ Αθήνασ λέγοντασ Þτι η Ελλάδα βάζει τέλοσ στο αίτηµα για την διαγραφή χρέουσ. Ουσιαστικά ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών προτείνει τον τερµατισµÞ τησ διένεξησ µε τουσ διεθνείσ πιστωτέσ τησ διαµέσου τησ ανταλλαγήσ των οµολÞγων τησ µε νέα αξιÞγραφα, τα οποία θα είναι συνδεδεµένα µε τον ρυθµÞ ανάπτυξησ τησ ελληνικήσ οικονοµίασ «Πλέον ζητούµε την αντικατάσταση µε νέα οµÞλογα βάσει τησ ανάπτυξησ τησ ελληνικήσ οικονοµίασ», τονίζει ο Βαρουφάκησ στην ίδια συνέντευξη. Η «ανταλλαγή χρέουσ» θα περιλαµβάνει δύο είδη νέων οµολÞγων. Ο πρώτοσ τύποσ, ο οποίοσ θα είναι άµεσα συνδεδεµένοσ µε το ρυθµÞ ανάπτυξησ του ονοµαστικού ΑΕΠ, θα δοθεί ωσ αντάλλαγµα για τα δάνεια που έχει λάβει η Ελλάδα απÞ την Ευρώπη και ο δεύτεροσ, τον οποίο ο κ. Βαρουφάκησ χαρακτήρισε ωσ «αέναα οµÞλογα» («perpetual bonds»), θα ανταλλαχθούν µε τα ελληνικά οµÞλογα που βρίσκονται στην κατοχή τησ ΕΚΤ. Με τον τρÞπο αυτÞ εκτιµάται πωσ πλέον η ελληνική πλευρά «γλιτώνει» την ανάγκη να χρησιµοποιούµε τον Þρο «κούρεµα», που δεν γίνεται αποδεκτÞσ απÞ τουσ συνοµιλητέσ. «ΑυτÞ το οποίο θα πω στουσ εταίρουσ µασ είναι Þτι προετοιµάζουµε έναν συνδυασµÞ ενÞσ πρωτογενούσ δηµοσιονοµικού πλεονάσµατοσ και ενÞσ προγράµµατοσ µεταρρυθµίσεων», ανέφερε ο Γιάνησ Βαρουφάκησ στη συνέντευξή του στουσ FT. «Θα τουσ πω, “βοηθήστε µασ να προωθήσουµε µεταρρυθµίσεισ στη χώρα µασ και δώστε µασ ένα δηµοσιονοµικÞ περιθώριο για να το κάνουµε αυτÞ, διÞτι σε διαφορετική περίπτωση θα συνεχίσουµε να πνιγÞµαστε και η Ελλάδα µάλλον θα παραµορφωθεί, παρά θα αναµορφωθεί”». Ο κ. Βαρουφάκησ διευκρίνισε πωσ το σχέδιο που θα προταθεί θα προβλέπει την ανταλλαγή των υπαρχÞντων δανείων απÞ τισ ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ µε οµÞλογα που θα συνδέονται µε την ανάπτυξη. ΑκÞµη, ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών τησ Ελλάδασ ανέφερε πωσ η κυβέρνηση σχεδιάζει να θέσει στο στÞχαστρο τουσ πλούσιουσ που φοροδιαφεύγουν και να επιτυγχάνει πρωτογενή πλεονάσµατα ύψουσ 1 ωσ 1,5% του Ακαθάριστου Εθνικού ΠροϊÞντοσ (ΑΕγχΠ), ακÞµη κι αν αυτÞ σηµαίνει πωσ η κυβέρνηση του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ δεν θα εφαρµÞσει Þλεσ τισ προεκλογικέσ τησ υποσχέσεισ για κοινωνικέσ δαπάνεσ, σύµφωνα µε το δηµοσίευµα των Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιµσ. Ο κ. Βαρουφάκησ δήλωσε ακÞµα Þτι η κυβέρνηση θα διατηρήσει πρωτογενέσ πλεÞνασµα - µετά απÞ πληρωµέσ τÞκων - απÞ 1 έωσ 1,5% του ΑΕΠ, ακÞµα και αν αυτÞ σηµαίνει Þτι ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, δεν θα εκπληρώσει Þλεσ τισ υποσχέσεισ µε βάση τισ οποίεσ εξελέγη. Η κυβέρνηση θα στοχεύσει τουσ πλούσιουσ Έλληνεσ που δεν έχουν «καταβάλει το µερίδιο των φÞρων που τουσ αναλογεί», ενώ το έθνοσ βρίσκεται σε οικονοµική ύφεση εδώ και έξι χρÞνια». «Θέλουµε να κάνουµε σαφέσ πωσ η προτεραιÞτητα είναι στο κεφάλι του ψαριού, και µετά θα πάµε στην ουρά», είπε χαρακτηριστικά. Ο υπουργÞσ είπε ακÞµα Þτι αναµένει δυσκολίεσ στην αποτελεσµατική πάταξη τησ φοροδιαφυγήσ και «κερδοσκοπικέσ συµπεριφορέσ» απÞ τισ επιχειρήσεισ των ολιγαρχών στην Ελλάδα, αλλά υποσχέθηκε: «Εµείσ δεν θα σταµατήσουµε µέχρι να τα καταφέρουµε. Αν έτσι µασ εξαφανίσουν τα κατεστηµένα συµφέροντα, θα είναι τιµή µασ να έχουµε πέσει δίνοντασ αυτÞν τον καλÞ αγώνα». Ερωτηθείσ εάν πιστεύει Þτι οι εταίροι στην Ευρωζώνη είχαν δίκιο να ανησυχούν για το σχέδιο τησ κυβέρνησησ να επαναπροσλάβει χιλιάδεσ εργαζÞµενουσ στο δηµÞσιο τοµέα,

ο κ. Βαρουφάκησ είπε: «Αν κοιτάξετε τι έχει συµβεί τα τελευταία πέντε χρÞνια, έχει υπάρξει µια µαζική µείωση στον δηµÞσιο τοµέα... Το πρÞβληµα δεν είναι αυτÞ, είναι Þτι δεν είναι αποτελεσµατικÞσ ο δηµÞσιοσ τοµέασ - είναι ένα είδοσ “νούµερο ένα εχθρÞσ”, η ελληνική γραφειοκρατία». Η κυβέρνηση σχεδιάζει να παρουσιάσει τισ προτάσεισ τησ σε αναλυτική µορφή στουσ ευρωπαίουσ εταίρουσ τησ πριν απÞ το τέλοσ του Φεβρουαρίου. Ο υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών είπε ακÞµα στουσ FT Þτι η Ελλάδα ελπίζει να εξασφαλίσει ένα πρÞγραµµα - γέφυρα, διάρκειασ τεσσάρων µηνών, για να τονώσει την οικονοµία απÞ τώρα µέχρι την 1η Ιουνίου, Þταν η ΕΚΤ υπÞσχεται να «κρατήσει» το χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ σύστηµα τησ Ελλάδασ, συνεχίζοντασ να παρέχει ρευστÞτητα µε ευνοϊκούσ Þρουσ. Αντί να ζητήσει την δÞση των 7 δισ. ευρώ, που επρÞκειτο να καταβληθεί στην Ελλάδα το περασµένο έτοσ, η κυβέρνηση θα ζητήσει µÞνο 1,9 δισ. ευρώ, λέει ο κύριοσ Βαρουφάκησ, για τα κέρδη τησ ΕΚΤ απÞ τισ αγορέσ τησ σε οµÞλογα του Ελληνικού ∆ηµοσίου µετά τη διάσωση 2010.

ª¤ÚÎÂÏ: √˘‰¤Ó Û¯fiÏÈÔ Εν τω µεταξύ τισ προτάσεισ τησ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ περιµένει η Άγκελα Μέρκελ, προκειµένου να ξεκινήσει συζητήσεισ µε την Ελλάδα, Þπωσ χθεσ η Γερµανίδα Καγκελάριοσ, τονίζοντασ πωσ δεν θέλει να σχολιάσει «µεµονωµένα» «Þλεσ τισ λεπτοµέρειεσ που διαδίδονται». «Είναι ξεκάθαρο πωσ η ελληνική κυβέρνηση επεξεργάζεται ακÞµη πάνω στη θέση τησ, κάτι που είναι παραπάνω απÞ κατανοητÞ, αν σκεφτεί κανείσ πÞσεσ λίγεσ ηµέρεσ ανέλαβε καθήκοντα», δήλωσε, σύµφωνα µε το Reuters, η Γερµανίδα Καγκελάριοσ, τονίζοντασ πωσ περιµένει τισ προτάσεισ τησ ελληνικήσ πλευράσ, προκειµένου να πάρει και η ίδια θέση στο θέµα. Είναι η πρώτη επίσηµη θέση τησ κ. Μέρκελ στα Þσα ακούγονται για το σχέδιο του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ για κούρεµα του χρέουσ µε έκδοση οµολÞγων. Οι δηλώσεισ Μέρκελ έγιναν δύο ηµέρεσ πριν απÞ τη συνάντηση του Γιάννη Βαρουφάκη µε τον ΓερµανÞ υπουργÞ Οικονοµικών, ΒÞλφγκανγκ ΣÞιµπλε, στο Βερολίνο αλλά και µε τον Μ. Ντράγκι στην Φραγκφούρτη και µία ηµέρα µετά τη συνέντευξή του στουσ FT Þπου αποκάλυψε το σχέδιο για το χρέοσ.

H ª¤ÚÎÂÏ ÙÔ˘˜ ¤‚Á·Ï ÙȘ ÁÚ·‚¿Ù˜ Γιατί οι υπουργοί τησ νέασ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ δεν φορούν γραβάτα; Τη δική τησ απάντηση στο πολυδιατυπωµένο αυτÞ ερώτηµα δίνει η γαλλική εφηµερίδα L’ Echo µε ένα σκίτσο που κάνει ήδη τον γύρο του διαδικτύου. Το σκίτσο δείχνει δύο φιγούρεσ που παραπέµπουν στον Έλληνα πρωθυπουργÞ Αλέξη Τσίπρα και τον υπουργÞ Οικονοµικών Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη µε µαύρο κοστούµι και κÞκκινο πουκάµισο - και φυσικά χωρίσ γραβάτα. ΑπÞ πάνω τουσ η λεζάντα ερώτηση: «Γιατί οι νέοι υπουργοί δεν φορούν πια γραβάτα;». «Γι’ αυτÞ», µοιάζουν να απαντούν οι δύο άνδρεσ δείχνοντασ µε το δάχτυλο στο φÞντο Þπου µια υπερµεγέθησ Αγκελα Μέρκελ εµφανίζεται να κρατά απÞ τη γραβάτα έναν... αβοήθητο Αντώνη Σαµαρά. Το σκίτσο κυκλοφορεί απÞ στα social media έχοντασ κάνει ιδιαίτερη αίσθηση.

O ÀÔ˘ÚÁfi˜ Ô˘ ÚÔηÏ› Ó¢ÚÈÎfiÙËÙ· Û fiÏÔ˘˜ «Ο νέοσ υπουργÞσ οικονοµικών τησ Ελλάδασ αξιοποιεί τισ ικανÞτητέσ του στη θεωρία των παιγνίων για τη θέση του ή απλώσ δεν µπορεί να κρατήσει το στÞµα του κλειστÞ»: ΑυτÞ αναφέρει το Bloomberg σε ένα δηµοσίευµα – αφιέρωµα στον Γιάνη Βαρουφάκη µε τίτλο «Ο νέοσ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών τησ Ελλάδασ είναι λαµπρÞσ. ΤÞτε γιατί κάνει τουσ πάντεσ γύρω του νευρικούσ;». Ο Γιάνησ Βαρουφάκησ, ο νέοσ Έλληνασ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών, είναι ένασ λαµπρÞσ οικονοµολÞγοσ. Τα πρώτα του βήµατα στην πολιτική σκηνή, ωστÞσο, δεν φαίνεται να κυλούν πολύ οµαλά. Αφού κάνει µια αναδροµή στην πρÞσφατη ακαδηµαϊκή καριέρα του, ο αρθρογράφοσ θυµάται τισ πιο αξιοµνηµÞνευτεσ στιγµέσ του: την περιγραφή του ελληνικού προγράµµατοσ διάσωσησ ωσ «εικονικÞσ πνιγµÞσ» και την παροµοίωση του ζώνησ του Ευρώ µε το Hotel California: «Μπορείσ να κάνεισ check-out Þποτε θελήσεισ, αλλά δεν µπορείσ να φύγεισ ποτέ». Οι ακÞλουθοί του στα social media φαίνεται πωσ αγαπούν την πύρινη ρητορική του – οι επενδυτέσ ωστÞσο και οι ηγέτεσ τησ ΕΕ είναι εµφανώσ λιγÞτερο ενθουσιώδεισ. Το Bloomberg δεν θα µπορούσε παρά να υπενθυµίσει την «άχαρη» συνάντησή του µε τον επικεφαλήσ του Eurogroup και την αντίδραση του Γερούν Ντάισελµπλουµ Þταν ο νέοσ «τσάροσ» τησ ελληνικήσ οικονοµίασ ζήτησε διάσκεψη για το ευρωπαϊκÞ χρέοσ. «Αυτή η διάσκεψη υπάρχει ήδη και ονοµάζεται Eurogroup” απάντησε ο εµφανώσ εκνευρισµένοσ Ντάισελµπλουµ», σηµειώνει το άρθρο το οποίο θυµίζει επίσησ την αντίδραση ΣÞιµπλε αλλά και εκείνη των αγορών καθώσ και του ΧΑΑ. «ΠαρÞλα αυτά ο Βαρουφάκησ συνέχισε στην επίθεση, µε αναρτήσεισ στισ οποίεσ κατηγορούσε τα διεθνή ΜΜΕ για ανακριβή ρεπορτάζ ενώ σε µια συνέντευξη στο BBC επέπληξε την παρουσιάστρια επειδή τον διέκοπτε «αγενώσ». «Ίσωσ να χρειάζεται µερικέσ συµβουλέσ για το πώσ να διαχειρίζεται τον εαυτÞ του στην τηλεÞραση», έγραψε στο blog του ο Στιν Γιάκοµπσεν, κορυφαίοσ επενδυτήσ τησ Saxo Bank, ενώ παρακολουθούσε την τηλεοπτική συνέντευξη. Είναι πράγµατι ο τύποσ πάνω στον οποίο βασίζεται η Ελλάδα για να διαπραγµατευτεί µια καλύτερη συµφωνία µε τουσ πιστωτέσ τησ; Ναι – και οι θαυµαστέσ του Βαρουφάκη επιµένουν πωσ δεν πρέπει να τον υποτιµούµε. «Ο Γιάνησ είναι η πιο έντονη και βαθιά πνευµατική φυσιογνωµία τησ γενιάσ µου που έχω συναντήσει ποτέ», λέει ο Τζέιµσ Κ. Γκαλµπρέιθ, ένασ οικονοµολÞγοσ απÞ το Πανεπιστήµιο του Τέξασ που έχει συνεργαστεί στενά µαζί του, ενώ ο οικονοµολÞγοσ και πρώην πολιτικÞσ του βρετανικού Εργατικού ΚÞµµατοσ Στιούαρντ ΧÞλαντ προσθέτει πωσ «ο Γιάνησ γνωρίζει πολλά περισσÞτερα για την τρέχουσα κατάσταση απÞ κάποιουσ απÞ αυτούσ µε τουσ οποίουσ θα διαπραγµατευτεί». Το δηµοσίευµα υπενθυµίζει επίσησ πωσ η ακαδηµαϊκή εξειδίκευση του Βαρουφάκη είναι στη θεωρία των παιγνίων, στην επιστήµη τησ στρατηγικήσ λήψησ αποφάσεων σε διαπραγµατεύσεισ Þπου άνθρωποι µε διαφορετικά συµφέροντα προσπαθούν να µεγιστοποιήσουν τα κέρδη ελαχιστοποιώντασ τισ απώλειεσ. Ο Βαρουφάκησ γνωρίζει περισσÞτερα πάνω στο θέµα αυτÞ «απÞ κάθε άλλον στον πλανήτη», υποστηρίζει ο πρώην συνάδελφÞσ του.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

4 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

8 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com 40,000 ·fi Ù· Lidl ∫‡ÚÔ˘ €4 ÛÙËÓ ∞ÚÔ‰·ÊÓÔ‡Û·

∏ ÙÂΛϷ Olmeca Altos ÁÈ· ÚÒÙË ÊÔÚ¿ ÛÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ Πραγµατοποιήθηκε η επίσηµη παρουσίαση τησ καινούργιασ τεκίλασ Olmeca Altos απÞ τον Olmeca Master Distiller Jesus Hernandez. Η Olmeca Altos εισάγεται και διανέµεται απÞ την Laiko Cosmos Trading Ltd. Ο κ. Hernandez βρέθηκε στην Κύπρο και συγκεκριµένα σε ΛεµεσÞ και Λευκωσία Þπου παρέδωσε ειδικά σεµινάρια για µπάρµεν. Επαγγελµατίεσ µπάρµεν απÞ Þλη την Κύπρο είχαν την ευκαιρία να δοκιµάσουν την καινούργια τεκίλα πολυτελείασ αλλά και να µάθουν περισσÞτερα για την ιστορία και τη διαδικασία παραγωγήσ τησ. Τισ παρουσιάσεισ ακολούθησε πάρτυ το οποίο έγινε στο Patio Cocktail Bar στη Λευκωσία σε λάτιν κλίµα και διάθεση. Οι καλεσµένοι απÞλαυσαν υπέροχα κοκτέϊλσ µε Olmeca Altos τεκίλα, φαγητÞ µε άρωµα απÞ ΜεξικÞ και γνωρίστηκαν µε τον Olmeca Master Distiller Jesus Hernandez. Η Olmeca Altos που αποτελείται απÞ 100% αγαύη, παράγεται στο αποστακτήριο Destileria Colonial de Jalisco. Η Olmeca Altos βγαίνει σε δύο εκδοχέσ την Olmeca Altos Plata και την Olmeca Altos Reposado.

∞Ó·Ó¤ˆÛË ÂÎ ‚¿ıÚˆÓ ÁÈ· ÙÔ Citroen C1 Μετά απÞ µια δεκαετία επιτυχηµένησ πορείασ στην αγορά το µικρÞ τησ Citroen βρίσκεται ήδη στη δεύτερη του γενιά. Ανανεώνεται εκ βάθρων προσφέροντασ σωρεία σχεδιαστικών και τεχνολογικών καινοτοµιών σε οδηγÞ και επιβάτεσ. Ένα µοντέλο που προσφέρει πρακτικέσ λύσεισ στη διακίνηση εντÞσ πÞλησ - και Þχι µÞνο - έχοντασ στα υπέρ του την ποιÞτητα κατασκευήσ, τον πλούσιο εξοπλισµÞ άνεσησ και ασφάλειασ, αλλά και οικονοµικούσ κινητήρεσ. Ùσον αφορά τισ διαστάσεισ του νέου Citroen C1 φθάνουν τα 3.46 µέτρα σε µήκοσ, 1.62 µέτρα σε πλάτοσ και 1.45 µέτρα σε ύψοσ. Αυξηµένοσ αρκετά για τα δεδοµένα του αµαξώµατοσ είναι και ο χώροσ αποσκευών ο οποίοσ πλέον φτάνει τα 196 λίτρα. To µοντέλο βρίσκεται ήδη στουσ εκθεσιακούσ χώρουσ Citroen τησ Geo Pavlides&Araouzos.

Σε µια εκδήλωση αγάπησ, ανακοινώθηκε το ποσÞ που προσέφερε αυτή τη χρονιά η Lidl Cyprus στον ΑντικαρκινικÞ Σύνδεσµο Κύπρου για τη στήριξη του Κέντρου Ανακουφιστικήσ Φροντίδασ «Αροδαφνούσα». Την εορταστική περίοδο των Χριστουγέννων η Lidl Cyprus προχώρησε για δεύτερη συνεχÞµενη χρονιά σε µία δράση στήριξησ του Αντικαρκινικού Συνδέσµου Κύπρου, προσφέροντασ στον Σύνδεσµο 5 σεντ απÞ την πώληση κάθε συσκευασίασ deluxe. Το συνολικÞ ποσÞ που συγκεντρώθηκε απÞ τη δράση ανέρχεται στισ 40.000 ευρώ, διπλάσιο σχεδÞν απÞ το ποσÞ που συγκεντρώθηκε την περσινή χρονιά. Ο ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ Lidl Κύπρου, Χρυσοβαλάντησ Καραγιάννησ τÞνισε: «Ωσ ενεργÞ µέλοσ πλέον τησ κυπριακήσ κοινωνίασ τα τελευταία τέσσερα χρÞνια, θέσαµε έναν διττÞ στÞχο: αφενÞσ να προσφέρουµε άριστεσ υπηρεσίεσ στουσ κατοίκουσ ολÞκληρησ τησ Κύπρου, αφετέρου δε να αναπτύξουµε δράσεισ Εταιρικήσ Κοινωνικήσ Ευθύνησ καταδεικνύοντασ µε τον τρÞπο αυτÞ το αµέριστο ενδιαφέρον µασ για τισ ευπαθείσ οµάδεσ τησ κοινωνίασ µασ».

™˘Ìʈӛ· Hala Abu Dhabi Ì Xenos Travel Î·È Top Kinisis Συµφωνίεσ συνεργασίασ µε δύο απÞ τουσ µεγαλύτερουσ ταξιδιωτικούσ πράκτορεσ τησ Κύπρου, Xenos Travel και Top Kinisis, υπέγραψε το Hala Abu Dhabi, το τµήµα διαχείρισησ προορισµών τησ Etihad Airways. ΣτÞχοσ τησ συνεργασίασ είναι η προώθηση του Άµπου Ντάµπι για τουσ ταξιδιώτεσ που κάνουν ενδιάµεσο σταθµÞ στην πρωτεύουσα των Ηνωµένων Αραβικών Εµιράτων. Οι Xenos Travel και Top Kinisis αποτελούν δύο απÞ τουσ συνολικά 45 σηµαντικούσ ταξιδιωτικούσ πράκτορεσ µε τουσ οποίουσ το Hala Abu Dhabi έχει υπογράψει συµφωνίεσ συνεργασίασ σε Αµερική, Ευρώπη, Μέση Ανατολή, Αφρική, Ασία και Αυστραλία, µε στÞχο την προώθηση του προγράµµατοσ «Ενδιάµεσοσ σταθµÞσ στο Άµπου Ντάµπι», τησ Etihad Airways. Το πρÞγραµµα επιτρέπει στουσ ταξιδιώτεσ απÞ την Κύπρο και άλλεσ χώρεσ, να απολαύσουν το χρÞνο τουσ στο Άµπου Ντάµπι, εκµεταλλευÞµενοι αποκλειστικά προνÞµια, Þπωσ διαµονέσ, δωρεάν βίζα εισÞδου στα ΗΑΕ και πρÞσβασησ σε γήπεδα γκολφ, προτού αναχωρήσουν για τον τελικÞ τουσ προορισµÞ. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ επισκεφθείτε την ιστοσελίδα www.etihad.com

ª¿ÓÙ„ ÙȘ Ӥ˜ Á‡ÛÂȘ Lay’s Î·È Î¤Ú‰ÈÛ €4 4000 Πατατάκια µε γεύση κοτÞπουλο λεµονάτο, καρµπονάρα ή κουπέπια; Τα Lay’s ανατρέπουν τα δεδοµένα και σε προκαλούν να µαντέψεισ τρεισ νέεσ, µυστικέσ συνταγέσ και να κερδίσεισ 4000 ευρώ! Οι 3 νέεσ Μυστικέσ Συνταγέσ των Lay’s έχουν εµπνευστεί απÞ γευστικά πιάτα τησ διεθνούσ κουζίνασ τα οποία ονÞµασε, ο γνωστÞσ σεφ Έκτορασ Μποτρίνι. Με βάση τα συστατικά που αναγράφονται στο κάθε πακέτο και φυσικά τισ γευστικέσ τουσ ικανÞτητεσ, οι καταναλωτέσ καλούνται να µαντέψουν ποιο πιάτο αντιστοιχεί στη κάθε γεύση και να µπουν στην κλήρωση. Οι Μυστικέσ Συνταγέσ των Lay’s κυκλοφορούν ήδη στην αγορά απÞ τισ 26 Ιανουαρίου και ο διαγωνισµÞσ θα διαρκέσει µέχρι και τισ 31 Μαρτίου. Ùλοι οι συµµετέχοντεσ που θα µαντέψουν σωστά θα µπουν σε κλήρωση για να κερδίσουν απÞ 4000 ευρώ ανά γεύση. Κάθε εβδοµάδα και για 8 εβδοµάδεσ, θα κληρώνεται ένασ τυχερÞσ απÞ Þλουσ τουσ συµµετέχοντεσ, που θα κερδίζει ένα τριήµερο ταξίδι για 2 στη πÞλη τησ επιλογήσ του ανάµεσα σε Αθήνα-Ρώµη και Βιέννη. Καθ Þλη τη διάρκεια του διαγωνισµού θα αποκαλύπτονται «hints & tips» για κάθε πιάτο, µέσα απÞ τη σελίδα LaysCyprus στο Facebook Þπωσ και ραδιοφωνικά.

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¡›ÎËÛ ÙÔÓ Î·ÚΛÓÔ ÙÚ·¯‹ÏÔ˘ Ù˘ Ì‹ÙÚ·˜ «ÛÙ· ÛËÌ›·» ‘Φυλάξου απÞ τον καρκίνο του τραχήλου τησ µήτρασ. Νίκησέ τον στα σηµεία’. ΑυτÞ είναι το σύνθηµα του Παγκύπριου Συνδέσµου Καρκινοπαθών και Φίλων (ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ) στη νέα εκστρατεία ενηµέρωσησ µε στÞχο την πρÞληψη και τον έλεγχο του καρκίνου του τραχήλου τησ µήτρασ µε το εµβÞλιο, το τεστ Παπανικολάου και το αίτηµα για εφαρµογή πληθυσµιακού προγράµµατοσ. Ο καρκίνοσ αυτÞσ θεωρείται απÞ την ΠαγκÞσµια Οργάνωση Υγείασ ωσ η πιο θανάσιµη µορφή καρκίνου στισ γυναίκεσ παγκοσµίωσ. Στην Κύπρο διαγιγνώσκονται κατά µέσον Þρο 30 νέα περιστατικά ετησίωσ εκ των οποίων γύρω στα 15 είναι προχωρηµένου σταδίου καθιστώντασ την αποτελεσµατική θεραπεία δύσκολη ή και ανέφικτη. Στα πλαίσια τησ εκστρατείασ ο ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ συνεχίζει να προσφέρει δωρεάν αριθµÞ εµβολίων στο κοινÞ σε Þλεσ τισ επαρχίεσ βάσει Þρων και προϋποθέσεων. Μέχρι σήµερα έχουν δοθεί 550 εµβÞλια δωρεάν. Ο καρκίνοσ αυτÞσ επηρεάζει το κατώτερο σηµείο τησ µήτρασ, τον τράχηλο που συνδέει τη µήτρα µε τον κÞλπο. Ùσοι Οργανισµοί, Εταιρείεσ, Οργανωµένα Σύνολα, Σχολεία, ΚοινÞτητεσ και Χωριά θα ήθελαν να πραγµατοποιήσουν διάλεξη ή να λάβουν φυλλάδια ή άλλη πληροφÞρηση για το θέµα αυτÞ µπορούν να επικοινωνούν µε τον ΠΑΣΥΚΑΦ στο τηλ. 22 345444.

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financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 17

Travellers’ Tales – hopefully with a meal included Whenever I have been going to a new place, in my own country or abroad, my hopes are: firstly, good food; secondly, good wine; thirdly, a comfortable bed. Ideally a conjunction of all three. I have slept in quite a few horrendous beds in Africa, the Middle East and especially in small hotels in France, but I am happy to say I have had far fewer horrendous meals Before I found my vocation (writing this stuff every week) I loved travelling; and when I wasn’t doing that, I loved reading about it. First choice, food books; second, wine; third, travel. Lately, I have become fondest of travel writing.

There are incredibly well-travelled writers who nonetheless are extremely boring.

Lawrence Durrell, for instance – ploughing through the Alexandra Quartet is like reading Dickens when you’re an eight-year-old; and although I have read Bitter Lemons a number of times, I find the writing conceited and self-obsessed and in parts impenetrable. It is a pity that this is regarded as the classic book about Cyprus in its fight for independence. It is not.

“Tetralogy of the Times – Stories of Cyprus” by G. Phillipou Pierides is the one.

Beg or borrow a copy from Ruth at Moufflon bookshop if you can.

When I look at a travel book, the first thing I do is riffle through the pages and if, after a riffle or four, I can’t find a reference to a meal or a drink of some description, I am put off. If the book has an index, then I search for the word ‘wine’. You’d be surprised how many very famous writers don’t appear to drink the stuff.

The Sunday Observer newspaper in London used to have a famous writer, Eric Newby, doing the travel. He was erudite, academic, but he could be a little pedestrian now and then.

His wife, Wanda, in my view, was a much more exciting writer because she got you involved with the people in her travels, whereas Eric told you about the routes, the history and the archaeology, in somewhat dry style.

Nevertheless, if you are an armchair traveller, Newby’s books are well worth reading.

Patrick Leigh-Fermor (below), traveller, writer and WWII hero (he kidnapped a German General) who lived to be 96, was also a scholarly man, and very human, as this extract from A Time of Gifts (Penguin) shows.

“As I drank the coffee and listened, their features slowly came back to me. At some point, unwillingly emulous of the casualties I had noticed with scorn, I had slumped forward over the Hofbrauhaus table in unwakeable stupor. There had been no vomiting, thank God; nothing worse than total insensibility; and the hefty Samaritan on the bench beside me had simply scooped me up and put me in his handcart, which was full of turned chair legs, and then, wrapping me in my greatcoat against the snow, wheeled it clean across Munich and laid me out mute as a flounder. The calamity must have been brought on by the mixture of the beer with the schnapps I had drunk in Schwabing; I had forgotten to eat anything but an apple since breakfast. Don’t worry, the carpenter said: why, in Prague, the beer-halls kept horses that they harnessed to wickerwork coffins on wheels, just to carry the casualties home at the brewery’s expense... What I needed, he said, opening a cupboard, was a ‘schluck’ of schnapps to put me on my feet. I made a dash for the yard and stuck my head under the pump.

Then, combed and outwardly respectable, I

Patrick Skinner

thanked my saviours and was soon striding guiltily and at high speed through these outlying streets.”

Evelyn Waugh was not really, a travel writer but, as a correspondent, went to Ethiopia and wrote a delightful book, first published in 1931 and republished in 1985 by Duckworth, called Remote People. He later fictionalised many of his experiences into a less absorbing but amusing novel called Scoop. In this delightful episode from Remote People one can see his gastronomic proclivities.

“At last supper arrived; first a basket containing half a dozen great rounds of native bread, a tough, clammy substance closely resembling crepe rubber in appearance; men two earthenware jugs, one of water, the other of ‘talla’ - a kind of thin, bitter beer; then two horns of honey, but not of honey as it is understood at Thame; this was the product of wild bees, scraped straight from the trees; it was a greyish colour, full of bits of stick and mud, bird dung, dead bees, and grubs. Everything was first carried to the Abuna for his approval, then to us. We expressed our delight with nods and more extravagant smiles. The food was laid before us and the bearers retired. At this moment the Armenian shamelessly deserted us saying that he must go and see after his boy.

“The three of us were left alone, smiling over our food in the half darkness. In the corner lay our hamper packed with Irene’s European delicacies. We clearly could not approach them until our host (the Abuna) left us. Gradually the frightful truth became evident that he was proposing to dine with us. I tore off a little rag of bread and attempted to eat it. ‘This is a very difficult situation,’ said the professor; ‘I think perhaps, it would be well to simulate ill-health’.

It was admirably done; the Abuna watched him with the greatest concern; presently the professor held his stomach and retched a little; then he lay on his back, breathing heavily with closed eyes; then he sat up on his elbow and explained in eloquent dumb show that he wished to rest. The Abuna understood perfectly, and, with every gesture of sympathy, rose to his feet and left us.

“In five minutes, when I had opened a tinned grouse and a bottle of lager and the professor was happily munching a handful of ripe olives, the Armenian returned. With a comprehensive wink, he picked up the jug of native beer, threw back his head, and, wimout pausing to breathe, drank a quart or two. He then spread out two rounds of bread, emptied a large quantity of honey into each of them, wrapped them together, and put them in his pocket. ‘Moi, je puis manger comme Abyssin,’ he remarked cheerfully, winked at the grouse, wished us good night, and left us.”

James A. Michener, who died in 1997 at the age of 90, is perhaps best known for books such as Tales of the South Pacific; but to me, his two volumes on Spain (large paperbacks published by Corgi in 1983 under the title Iberia) proved him one of the most meticulous researchers and seekers after accuracy; but this didn’t stop him being a wonderfully evocative writer. He is the only author of travel books in my ken actually to include recipes in his index. There are quite a lot of them, but not set out with the amount of ingredients and the precise method - but they are descriptive enough. Take, for example, this one for rabbit: “One of their delights is to shoot a rabbit, skin it and then spreadeagle it on a structure made of three sticks tied together in the form of a Cross of Lorraine. The upright member of the cross is left long, so that it can be used as a handle for holding the rabbit over a fire of hot coals until the meat is hard and crisp. Salt is rubbed on the finished meat, which is cut into thin strips and mixed with raw tomatoes, peppers, much onion, garlic, olive oil and vinegar.

‘Maybe the best salad a man can eat,’ those who live along Las Marismas claim.”

You can replicate this quite simply without shooting or skinning your rabbit, merely buying one from your local supermarket. Then, charcoalgrilling it and carrying on from there.

Delicious!

Send me your news! To be published in Cyprus Gourmet, here and on-line.

Email: editor@eastward-ho.com

Diner handed £250,000 bill at Cote Brasserie A financial advisor was accidentally given a bill of over £250,000 for a two-course meal with her son.

Pretima Champaneri-Phillips, 52, only realised she had been charged the sky-high amount after entering her PIN and being presented with the receipt, according to the Evening Standard.

The problem arose after she ordered soup followed by coq au vin, while her son had eggs benedict and a steak.

The bill with drinks and service should have been £26.83 but ended up as £268,399.

The waitress quickly corrected the error and the transaction was cancelled.

Ms Champaneri-Phillips told the Standard: “I should think it was the most expensive meal I have ever had in my life. It was good, but not that good!

“I’m surprised they were allowed to have so many digits entered without alarms bells going off. It just shows how important it is to check your bill at the end of your meal.”

A Cote spokesman said: “We do apologise. Luckily the lady noticed so it was cancelled. Even if she had pressed enter, that amount would never have gone through.”

Published by: The Caterer

February 4 - 10, 2015

18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

A tale of Apple proportions

By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary

Apple’s story is the corporate realisation of the American dream. When university dropouts, Wozniak and Jobs, partnered up in the 70s to sell hundreds of machines to a local computer store, it was an impressive feat. In 1998, after Apple had become a recognised brand, Microsoft’s Bill Gates stated in an interview that he “couldn’t imagine a situation in which Apple would ever be bigger and more profitable than Microsoft.” How he must be cringing now.

Long gone are the days when Apple was the underdog in Silicon Valley. Many anticipated that the data in the firm’s quarterly earnings report last week would be positive: the stock price was up 9% in premarketing trading. But to say that this positive sentiment was correct would be a thorough understatement of reality. Not only is Apple now the most profitable company in the world, but the latest report reveals that it has broken record after record. Even CEO Tim Cook seemed surprised by the numbers that are “shattering our high expectations.”

Here are the facts. Apple enjoyed a total revenue of $74.6 bln in the last quarter of 2014, around three times the revenue reported

by Microsoft. The profit was $18 bln. That’s more than any company has ever made in

history, and is significantly higher than the previous record of $16.2 bln held by Gazprom.

An incredible 74.5 mln in iPhone sales accounts for over two thirds of the company’s revenue. It’s a sales figure so spectacular that it outshines entire industries. To give a little perspective, compare it to the 60 mln televisions and 54 tablets sold worldwide last quarter. Or in real-time terms, if you have spent just one minute reading this column so far, Apple has sold 600 iPhones in the same period.

Business analysts and high-tech rivals studying the firm’s success point to Steve Jobs’ mission from the get-go to offer consumers a product as perfect in design as in functionality, a model of integrated software

and hardware. Although Apple smartphones are overpriced compared to the competition, consumers have proved willing to pay up.

Equally noteworthy is that Apple has always positioned itself as a market trendsetter and not a follower. So, while Microsoft nurtured its dominance in computers and sought to protect its Windows franchise, Apple innovated and adapted. Even as the iPod was turning high profits, Jobs predicted that future phones would function as music players.

The question now is whether the world’s most profitable company can keep breaking its own records. It is hard to imagine that the same pace of growth can continue, and a number of investors have expressed concern that the iPhone’s very popularity will hinder

Apple’s continued innovation, now that the firm has become so dependent on the one product line.

Yes, a time may come when this tech giant can’t grow any bigger, but judging from present trends, that won’t happen any time soon. The company’s existing ethos and corporate flexibility should enable it to maneuver successfully into the future. It is already promoting the Apple Watch, due to go on sale in April, and is presumably working behind the scenes on future product launches.

At the same time, the smartphone industry is thriving. Apple’s recent success was helped by making inroads into the mammoth Chinese market after securing a deal with China Mobile. It almost doubled its market share in the country from 9% in Q3 to 17% in Q4, leaving plenty of room still for future growth.

To talk about Apple is to talk about a firm which has risen from the basements of America and dreamt the unimaginable. It has proven that the limitations of others do not limit it. And as long as Apple continues to inspire its customers and create products of desire, it will retain its power to dazzle investors too.

Did Alibaba trick analysts and investors over growth and valuation?

By Jon C. Ogg Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd. (NYSE: BABA) had a massive initial public offering (IPO). Its stock soared, and Wall Street analysts set very high price targets in their coverage of the Chinese online seller of everything under the sun. Just like the rest of the world, analysts often see things in a manner that does not work out.

The question that 24/7 Wall St. has is whether Wall Street was duped into thinking that Alibaba would have higher growth rates than reality. After all, Jack Ma and his team knew much of the growth metrics throughout much of the fourth quarter. Still, Ma may have covered himself even before the IPO priced.

After Mark Cuban warned that Alibaba should not have been allowed to come public in the United States, we cannot help but wonder if this is going to lead to a feeling by analysts that they were duped by the company into certain growth assumptions. That being said, Ma did warn up front that shareholders are not the first concern. Ma was quoted even before the IPO as saying, “Customers first, employees second, and shareholders third … I can see that investors who hear this for the first time may find it a bit hard to understand.”

Alibaba’s IPO price was at $68 on September 19, and its shares closed at $93.89 after the first trading day. The range on that first day was $89.95 to $99.70. After that, the stock tread water before rising to above $100 on November 3. It then hit a high of just over

$120 by November 13. Now the shares trade around $90.

Oppenheimer maintained its Outperform rating, but the firm cut its price target to $112 from $133. It said: “Our positive thesis on BABA continues to build on its robust GMV growth and future monetisation upside potential. We think its lower-than-expected blended take rate is attributable to management’s intention to maintain market share among intense competition, via reducing merchants’ costs and improving user experiences. Also, on January 30, the CEO met with the top official of SAIC and agreed to crack down on counterfeit goods together.”

Wells Fargo maintained its Outperform rating, but the valuation range was cut to $110 to $113 from a prior $123-126 range. Its lower target was based on lower e-commerce market multiples. The firm said: “Alibaba reported solid bottom-line results, though revenue missed our estimates and consensus, sending the stock down 8.8%. Core demand metrics were strong, including gross market value growth and active user growth.”

Credit Suisse maintained its Outperform, but lowered its target to $113 from $118. “We revise down expected 2016 earnings by 0.6%.

We turn more conservative in near-term takerate assumptions, but maintain our view that monetisation rate continue to increase with better buyer experience and mobile ad roll-out.

We see weakness as good buying opportunity.

Our discounted cash flow-based valuation of $113 implies 43.8x CY15E, 33.5x CY16E, and 26.8x CY17E diluted adjusted earnings per share.”

Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintained a Buy, but cut the price objective to $116 from $132. “As management emphasises its focus on company’s long-term prospect after the IPO, the margins and monetisation rate continue to be in transition.”

Other analyst calls were as follows: Brean Capital has a Buy, but lowered the target to $110 from $115; CRT Capital had a Buy, but its target was cut to $110 from $122; Evercore ISI cut its target to $115 from $130; Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral, lowering its target to $98 from $104; RBC Capital Markets maintained Outperform, but cut the target to $113 from $130; and, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey maintained a Buy, and the target

was cut to $110 from $120.

If you wonder even further, what does it tell you when class action suits are filed this soon after an IPO? The firm Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd has filed a class action suit against Alibaba, and that was after a January 29 release by the Pomerantz Law Firm in which it was said to be investigating claims on behalf of Alibaba investors.

Ma might be able to say he warned up front that investors are not the highest priority of the company. And then there was our warning ahead of the IPO that the risks and disclosures section of the prospectus was an unheard of 40 pages long.

(Source: 24/7 Wall St.com)

February 4 - 10, 2015

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

Asia’s encouraging currency stability now take a breather. * One of the questions clients have asked most frequently over recent months is: When will the renminbi join other currencies-like the Singapore dollar last week-and devalue against the US dollar? But, if a) most Asian currencies are now stable against the US dollar, and b) the US dollar stops appreciating, should we be that concerned about renminbi weakness? In recent months, we have argued at length that Beijing needs its currency to be strong, at least against those of its neighbours, to further its long term geostrategic and financial reform goals. We still believe this to be the case and see short term pullbacks, such as the one that has unfolded in recent days, as a buying opportunity. * The stability of Asia’s currencies makes the region all the more attractive both for domestic and foreign investors.

Meanwhile, the greater currency volatility in Europe and other emerging markets massively increases the risk, and stress, for investors looking to deploy capital in either. At the margin, Asia’s currency stability should thus lead to a rerating of regional equities and bonds, relative to European and US equities. In fact, given the relative stability of Asian currencies and the region’s generally positive economic outlook, it makes little sense that Asian equities should currently be sporting the lowest P/E ratios in the world. * The stability of Asian currencies is very positive for regional, and thus global, trade flows. Rapidly shifting currency values are highly disruptive for established trade links (as the Asian crisis of 1997-98 demonstrated).

However, the fact that Asian countries do not seem to be following the lead set by others and are not playing the ‘currency war’ games is greatly encouraging for regional trade.

Putting all these points together, we take heart from the passable performance of Asian currencies over recent weeks.

Admittedly, there have been spots of weakness: the Malaysian ringgit has had a tough few months (Malaysia is also the only Asian bond market to have delivered no gains over the past three months), as have the Australian and New Zealand dollars. But the pull-backs make sense given the importance of commodity extraction to these economies. And as the ringgit struggles, it makes sense for the Singapore dollar to soften somewhat in sympathy. But apart from these few cases, the picture that emerges from Asia is largely one of stability.

This relative currency stability will help the nascent Asian equity bull market to grow.

In fact, with an outlook very similar to the one at the beginning of this century, a number of Asian countries-India, the Philippines, China-may well be starting once again to see a triple merit scenario of falling interest rates, rising currencies, and rising asset prices.

Marcuard’s Market update

by GaveKal Dragonomics Three months ago to the day, the US Federal Reserve ended its outright purchases of treasuries. Three months before that, the ECB instituted negative interest rates. And whether by coincidence or causation, most commodity prices chose the past six months to unravel.

The combination of these events has led to some sharp exchange rate moves. Over the past three months, commodity currencies have been taken to the woodshed: the Russian ruble is down -37%, the Norwegian krone is down 15%, and the Australian and Canadian dollars have each shed -11%. Meanwhile, the euro and its neighbours (Danish krone, Swedish krona, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint) are all down by -11% to -12%. And of course, the Swiss Franc made a never-before-seen one-day double digit gain against every other currency out there.

Amid the turmoil, Asian currencies have been islands of relative stability. In the last three months, the Philippine peso has risen by +1.3% against the US dollar. The Indian rupee and Thai baht are flat. The renminbi and Taiwan dollar are down -2.5%. Even the Japanese yen-every macro investor’s favourite short after the Bank of Japan’s October surprise-is down only -8%, and has basically been flat since mid-November. From this currency stability we draw the following conclusions: * In 2014, the main story in the market was the strength of the US dollar. Starting in mid-November, the narrative started to shift from US dollar strength to euro weakness.

This is important because the market’s behaviour in past few days following the European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing raises the possibility that, once again, investors might have opted to ‘buy the ECB rumour, sell the fact’. Combine this with the recent underperformance of US equities, and perhaps the overall gains in the US dollar will

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

www.marcuardheritage.com

The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates

CCY USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.125% 0.50% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00%

Swap Rates

CCY/Period

1mth

2mth

3mth

6mth

1yr

USD

0.17 0.50 0.00 0.07 -0.91

0.21 0.53 0.01 0.09 -0.90

0.25 0.56 0.03 0.10 -0.86

0.36 0.68 0.10 0.14 -0.76

0.62 0.96 0.24 0.26 -0.64

GBP EUR JPY CHF

CCY/Period USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

2yr

3yr

4yr

5yr

7yr

10yr

0.72 0.87 0.14 0.14 -0.76

1.00 1.03 0.17 0.16 -0.73

1.22 1.15 0.24 0.20 -0.67

1.39 1.25 0.31 0.25 -0.58

1.63 1.39 0.46 0.36 -0.34

1.85 1.53 0.69 0.53 -0.06

Why Apple is selling billions in debt again Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is not a company that is exactly hurting for cash these days. After all, it just indicated that its latest cash balance was roughly $178 bln, if you include its short-term and long-term investments. So why is Apple raising another $5 bln or so in another bond offering?

Apple has filed to sell a multi-tranche offering of notes and bonds, and the reported amount is $5 bln. This would be smaller than the $12 bln it raised in 2014 and the $17 bln in 2013.

If you go back to Apple’s earnings release analysis, it showed that international sales were 65% of revenues. This means that much of Apple’s cash treasure trove is stored outside of the United States. Apple would have to pay a huge penalty to bring that money back into the country.

Standard & Poor’s already said on Monday that Apple’s senior unsecured notes will be rated AA+. The prospectus and the S&P show the maturity dates as 2020, 2022, 2025 and in 2045.

The notes and bonds have been earmarked for general corporate purposes. Of course that includes stock buybacks and dividends, as well as funding for working capital, capital expenditures and acquisitions, and repayment of debt.

Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank were the only two listed underwriters for the note and bond offering.

Apple shares were up 0.5% at $117.75 in midday trading on Monday. Its 52-week trading range is $71.33 to $120.00, and the consensus analyst price target from Thomson Reuters has now risen to $129.53.

By Jon C. Ogg, 24/7 Wall St.com

WORLD CURRENCIES PER US DOLLAR CURRENCY

CODE

RATE

EUROPEAN

Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia

BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH

15650 1.5059 1.7233 24.45 6.5593 13.7876 1.1349 1.99 272.44 0.6193 3.0426 0.3783 18.04 7.628 3.6795 3.8774 66.7275 8.2952 0.9257 16.1768

AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD

0.7677 1.2546 7.7545 61.685 117.51 1099.12 1.3864 1.3516

BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED

0.3770 7.6255 27497.00 3.9235 0.7090 0.2949 1508.00 0.3850 3.6414 3.7530 11.4554 3.6729

AZN KZT TRY

0.783 184.44 2.4182

AMERICAS & PACIFIC

Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham

Exchange Rates

ASIA Major Cross Rates

CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

1 USD

Opening Rates

1 EUR

1 GBP

1 CHF

100 JPY

1.1347

1.5064

1.0805

0.8514

0.8813

1.3276

0.6638

0.7533

0.9255

1.0502

1.3942

117.45

133.27

176.93

0.9522 0.7173

0.7504 0.5652 0.7880

126.90

Weekly movement of USD

CCY\Date

05.01

13.01

20.01

27.01

03.02

CCY

Today

USD GBP JPY CHF

1.1876

1.1771

1.1524

1.1180

1.1274

0.7769

0.7764

0.7643

0.7404

0.7506

142.83

139.49

136.20

132.03

131.76

1.1946

1.1938

1.0066

1.0104

1.0451

GBP EUR JPY CHF

1.5064 1.1347 117.45 0.9255

Last Week %Change 1.5100 1.1180 118.09 0.9038

-0.24 +1.49 -0.55 +2.41

Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:

* USD per National Currency

February 4 - 10, 2015

20 | WORLD | financialmirror.com

The decline of US military innovation

By Dan Steinbock The United States is at risk of losing its military edge. America’s armed forces may still be the most advanced in the world; after all, the US spends more than twice as much on military research and development as major powers like France and Russia, and nine times more than China and Germany.

But America’s continued technological leadership is far from assured.

Since 2005, the US Department of Defense has cut R&D spending by 22%. In 2013, as part of a deal to avert a showdown over the debt ceiling, the US Congress mandated some $1.2 trln in automatic spending cuts. The move, which requires reduced spending in numerous programmes, including many defense research initiatives, was described by US President Barack Obama’s administration as “deeply destructive to national security.” If US defense innovation continues to erode, not only will America’s defense capabilities suffer; the country will also risk slipping in terms of commercial innovation and competitiveness.

Budget limitations pose some of the greatest challenges to the US military’s efforts to maintain its technological edge.

The Army and the Missile Defense Agency have been particularly hard hit, with R&D spending nearly halved since 2005. The Navy’s research budget has been cut by some 20%, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) – the organisation tasked with keeping the US military ahead of the technological curve – has had to slash

R&D spending by 18%. Even the Air Force, where research spending has traditionally been a congressional priority, has been forced to cut its budget by roughly 4%.

When money does get allocated, cost pressures too often encourage investment in projects that promise quick results – a bias that comes at the expense of long-term innovation that could provide a strategic advantage. Even DARPA has fallen prey to pressure for research that can demonstrate immediate progress.

To make matters worse, the US military’s innovation efforts face several structural problems. Six decades of attempts to reform the defense acquisition process have yet to yield fruit. Most of the design, development and production of military systems is carried out by civilian industry, but decision-making remains firmly in the hands of military officials, who may not be able to strike the right balance between cost-cutting and innovation.

Rivalries within and among the military services once mimicked the role of competition in the private sector: they drove innovation. But with the end of the Cold War, the pressure to remain a step ahead has waned, depriving the defense sector of a crucial engine of progress. Moreover, top defense contractors’ R&D spending as a proportion of sales plummeted by nearly a third from 1999 to 2012. By contrast, America’s technology giants invest 4-6 times as much in R&D. Meanwhile, the US is suffering from the hollowing out of its defense industrial base.

Increased competition from China and other large emerging economies has eroded US manufacturing capabilities, jeopardising America’s ability to develop the most technologically sophisticated defense platforms. The defense industry once created the new technologies – lasers, GPS, and the

Internet, for example – that helped drive the American economy. Today, in most fields, civilian technology is likely to be leading the way. The result can be seen in the rise of foreign competition in the international arms market. American manufacturers are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable in areas that they once dominated – including unmanned aerial platforms, intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, missiles, and satellites – as low-cost competitors gain market share. In 2013, Russia’s weapons exports surpassed America’s by more than $2 bln.

In November, US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced a new initiative to “sustain and advance America’s military dominance for the twenty-first century.” In a time of shrinking budgets and shifting strategic challenges, he focused on innovation. “Continued fiscal pressure will likely limit our military’s ability to respond to long-term challenges by increasing the size of our force or simply outspending potential

adversaries on current systems,” he said. “So to overcome challenges to our military superiority, we must change the way we innovate, operate, and do business.”

Nine days later, Hagel handed in his resignation, which will take effect as soon as the US Senate confirms his replacement. A policy aimed at restoring defense innovation and production in America would ensure that the US upholds its global technological leadership and commercial competitiveness.

Unfortunately, Hagel’s successor is likely to find that, in an era of limited budgets and automatic spending cuts, the type of comprehensive innovation strategy that Hagel envisioned may simply not be viable.

Dan Steinbock, a partner at Difference Group, was Research Director of International Business at the India, China, and America Institute and a visiting fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies in China and the EU Center in Singapore. © Project Syndicate, 2015. www.project-syndicate.org

Why Russia’s economy will not collapse

By Charles Wyplosz

The rapid depreciation of the ruble, despite a dramatic – and seemingly desperate – late-night interest-rate hike by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) last month, has raised the spectre of Russia’s economic meltdown in 1998. Indeed, the West has sought to animate that spectre in its ongoing confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But, though Russia’s economy is undoubtedly in trouble, a full-blown collapse is unlikely.

Oil and gas account for more than 60% of Russia’s exports; other primary commodities make up much of the rest. Given this, the recent sharp decline in world oil prices obviously represents a major shock – large enough, when combined with the effect of increasingly strict Western sanctions – to provoke a sizeable recession. To make matters worse, commodity prices are expected to remain low for some time. In that case, the income loss would become much more than a temporary setback.

But Russia is no economic basket-case-in-waiting – at least not yet. The situation today is very different from that in 1998, when Russia was running twin fiscal and current-account deficits. Russia needed to borrow, and it was borrowing heavily in foreign currency. This meant that as the ruble depreciated, Russia’s debts rose. Eventually, default became inevitable.

By contrast, in recent years, Russia has enjoyed a sizeable budget surplus, and public debt is below 20% of GDP. It is true that income from oil and gas, which represents the bulk of government revenues, has been halved when measured in dollars. But the Russian currency has fallen by about the same

percentage, meaning that the government’s income in roubles remains approximately unchanged.

Similarly, Russia’s current-account balance has been mostly in surplus in recent years. Gross public and private external debt is below 40% of GDP, and much of it is denominated in roubles. The sharp fall in export income is rapidly changing the situation, but Russia is starting from a comfortable position. To panic would be premature.

The rouble’s free-fall has been driven mainly by capital outflows. Russia’s famous oligarchs have already stashed most of their wealth abroad, but they retain significant savings at home. As the economic and political situation deteriorates, they are most likely pulling more money out. Small savers have every reason to switch into foreign currency as well.

This has put the CBR in a challenging position. The rouble’s depreciation is bound to fuel inflation, already around 11% and far above the CBR’s 5% target. In that context, raising the interest rate sharply makes sense, and officials may be hoping that the hike will stem capital outflows – despite the risk that the decision, if interpreted as being aimed at defending the currency, could have the opposite effect.

The trouble is that the higher interest rates are bound to deepen Russia’s economic downturn, making the CBR an easy scapegoat. Never mind that the central bank is not responsible for Russia’s troubles – the run on the ruble, the recession, and the flare-up of inflation – and that using interest rates to prevent capital outflows always fails. Embattled politicians can be counted on to point the finger.

The threat to Putin is clear. He risks the fate of his predecessor, Boris Yeltsin, who presided during a period of unusually low oil prices. Until now, Putin has been lucky, coming to power just as oil prices started to rise. Most Russian citizens credit him with two decades of rising living standards, following decades of decline.

Putin’s decision not to implement the unpopular reforms that would have created a strong non-oil export sector may have been bad for the economy’s long-term health, but it has allowed him to maintain widespread public support. His economic good fortune, combined with his readiness to stand up to the West, has created a misguided impression in Russia that the country is, once again, a world power.

Many in the United States and Europe believe that ratcheting up economic pressure on Russia will help drive Putin out. This is an enormously dangerous gamble. As Russian living standards decline, Putin’s only viable strategy to remain in power will be an aggressive international posture.

Foreign military adventures, after all, are most appealing when the domestic front is on fire.

None of this means that the West should bow and forsake its principles. But it does mean that the time has come for a diplomatic approach that does not depend on the prospect of Russia’s economic collapse.

Charles Wyplosz is Professor of International Economics and Director of the International Center for Money and Banking Studies at the Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

February 4 - 10, 2015

financialmirror.com | WORLD | 21

The Eurozone needs more than QE

By Martin Feldstein

Although the European Central Bank has launched a largerthan-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE), even its advocates fear that it may not be enough to boost real incomes, reduce unemployment, and lower governments’ debt-to-GDP ratios. They are right to be afraid.

But first the good news: anticipation of QE has already accelerated the decline of the euro’s international value. The weaker euro will stimulate eurozone countries’ exports – roughly half of which go to external markets – and thus will raise eurozone GDP. The euro’s depreciation will also raise import prices and therefore the overall rate of inflation, moving the eurozone further away from deflation.

Unfortunately, that may not be enough. The success of QE in the United States reflected initial conditions that were very different from what we now see in Europe. Indeed, eurozone countries should not relax their reform efforts on the assumption that ECB bond purchases will solve their problems.

But even if these countries cannot overcome the political barriers to implementing structural changes to labor and product markets that could improve productivity and competitiveness, they can enact policies that can increase aggregate demand.

To be sure, the major eurozone countries’ large national debts preclude using traditional Keynesian policies – increased spending or reduced taxes – to raise demand through increased budget deficits. But eurozone governments can change the structure of taxes in ways that stimulate private spending without reducing net revenue or increasing fiscal deficits.

First, though, consider why QE’s ability to stimulate growth and employment in the US does not imply that it will succeed in the eurozone. QE’s effect on demand in the US reflected the financial-market conditions that prevailed when the Federal Reserve began its large-scale asset purchases in 2008. At that

time, the interest rate on ten-year Treasury bonds was close to 4%. The Fed’s aggressive programme of bond-buying and its commitment to keep short-term interest rates low for a prolonged period drove the long-term rate down to about 1.5%.

The sharp fall in long-term rates induced investors to buy equities, driving up share prices. Low mortgage interest rates also spurred a recovery in house prices. In 2013, the broad Standard and Poor’s index of equity prices rose by 30%. The combination of higher equity and house prices raised households’ net worth in 2013 by $10 trillion, equivalent to about 60% of that year’s GDP. That, in turn, led to a rise in consumer spending, prompting businesses to increase production and hiring, which meant more incomes and therefore even more consumer spending. As a result, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth accelerated to 4% in the second half of 2013. After a weather-related pause in the first quarter of 2014, GDP continued to grow at an annual rate of more than 4%.

Thus, QE’s success in the US reflected the Fed’s ability to drive down long-term interest rates. In contrast, long-term interest rates in the eurozone are already extremely low, with ten-year bond rates at about 50 basis points in Germany and France and only 150 basis points in Italy and Spain.

So the key mechanism that worked in the US will not work

in the eurozone. Driving down the euro’s dollar exchange rate from its $1.15 level (where it was before the adoption of QE) to parity or even lower will help, but it probably will not be enough.

But, fortunately, QE is not the only tool at policymakers’ disposal. Any eurozone country can modify its tax rules to stimulate business investment, home building, and consumer spending without increasing its fiscal deficit, and without requiring permission from the European Commission.

Consider the goal of stimulating business investment. Tax credits or accelerated depreciation lower firms’ cost of investing and therefore raise the after-tax return on investment. The resulting revenue loss could be offset by raising the corporate tax rate.

Similarly, demand for new homes could be increased by allowing homeowners to deduct mortgage interest payments (as they do in the US), or by giving a tax credit for mortgage interest payments. A temporary tax credit for home purchases would accelerate home building, encouraging more in the near term and less in the future. Here, the revenue loss could be offset by an increase in the personal tax rate.

A commitment to raise the rate of value-added tax by two percentage points annually for the next five years would encourage earlier buying to get ahead of future price increases.

The reduction in real incomes caused by the VAT increase could be offset by a combination of reduced personal income taxes, reduced payroll taxes, and increased transfers.

Though eurozone members cannot adjust their interest rates or their exchange rates, they can alter their tax rules to stimulate spending and demand, with the appropriate policy possibly differing from country to country. It is now up to national political leaders to recognise that QE is not enough – and to start thinking about what else should be done to stimulate spending and demand.

Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

Ireland’s economy and fiscal position improving But high public debt remains a constraint, NPLs at 25% of loans Ireland’s (Baa1, stable) economy is recovering at a reasonably strong pace now, and its fiscal performance has also been improving over the past several years, according to Moody’s, adding that key rating constraints are the high public debt level as well as remaining weaknesses in the Irish banking sector.

The rating agency also notes that fiscal policy is being loosened in 2015 and the strong 2014 growth performance is unlikely to be repeated this year.

“Ireland’s 2014 economic performance was strong with real GDP growth estimated at around 5%, and the country’s growth prospects remain solid. However, the strong growth in exports is unlikely to be repeated as it was partly due to special factors related to offshore production activity. We expect growth rates of 3.8% and 3.0% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, which is still a very solid performance,” said Kathrin Muehlbronner, a Senior Credit Officer at Moody’s.

The rating agency cautions that the strong investment recovery now under way will at some point in the future require a pick-up in bank lending. But as the banking sector remains weak, with non-performing loans at 25% of total loans, as well as low current and prospective profitability, it remains one of Ireland’s key constraints.

At the same time, Moody’s considers that the risks arising from the banking sector for the government’s balance sheet have been materially reduced as a result of strengthened capital, liquidity and funding profiles.

Also, contingent liability risks related to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) have further declined, given the strong cash flow and faster-thanexpected repayment of government-guaranteed debt.

Moody’s also expects that Ireland will continue to bring down its budget deficit, with the 2015 budget targeting a deficit reduction to 2.7% of GDP (from 3.9% in 2014). Aside from the economic recovery, government finances will benefit from the savings on interest expenditure following the replacement of IMF loans with cheaper market funding, Moody’s said.

However, the rating agency noted that fiscal policy in 2015 is being loosened significantly compared with

earlier commitments of the government. As such, the 2015 budget means that Ireland’s elevated debt levels will likely reduce at a slower pace than initially expected.

While 2014 represented the first year in which the public-debt-to-GDP ratio declined, the ratio remains among the highest in Moody’s sovereign rating universe, although the agency expects the debt ratio to decline gradually below the 100% mark by 2018.

February 4 - 10, 2015

22 | WORLD | financialmirror.com

Japan’s constitutional albatross

By Brahma Chellaney The approach of the 70th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II has sparked much discussion – and lamentation – of East Asia’s resurgent historical feuds. But recent tensions in the region may partly reflect a lack of progress in another, overlooked area: Japanese constitutional reform. Indeed, despite the powerlessness so vividly highlighted by the Islamic State’s beheading of two Japanese hostages, Japan has not adopted even one amendment to the “peace constitution” that the occupying American forces imposed on it in 1947.

At first glance, this may not be altogether surprising. After all, the constitution served an important purpose: by guaranteeing that Japan would not pose a military threat in the future, it enabled the country finally to escape foreign occupation and pursue rebuilding and democratisation. But consider this: Germany adopted an Allied-approved constitution under similar circumstances in 1949, to which it has since made dozens of amendments.

Moreover, whereas Germany’s constitution, or Basic Law, authorised the use of military force in self-defense or as part of a collective security agreement, Japan’s constitution stipulated full and permanent relinquishment of “the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.” Japan is the only country in the world bound by such restrictions – imposed not just to prevent a militarist revival, but also to punish Japan for its wartime government’s policies – and continued adherence to them is unrealistic.

That is why Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made constitutional reform a high priority. Having cemented his authority in December’s snap general election, in which his Liberal Democratic Party won a decisive victory, Abe is determined to pursue his goal of building a stronger, more competitive Japan – one that can hold its own against an increasingly muscular China.

Abe’s effort to “normalise” Japan’s strategic posture began with a reinterpretation of Article 9 of the constitution, according to which the country would henceforth be allowed to engage in “collective self-defense.” Japan’s government

approved the change last summer, and the United States backed the move as well. With the Islamic State’s attempts to leverage the lives of two Japanese hostages, legislation to implement the reinterpretation is set to be submitted to the Diet.

Yet the reinterpretation has faced some resistance at home and abroad. Chinese critics, in particular, have expressed concern that Japanese militarism could reemerge, though they neglect to mention that it is China’s military buildup that prompted Japan’s government to reassess its national defense policy.

In fact, the reinterpretation amounts to little more than a tweak: Japanese forces can now shield an American warship defending Japan, but they remain prohibited from initiating offensive attacks or participating in multilateral military operations. Given that the United Nations charter recognises individual and collective self-defense as an “inherent right” of sovereign countries, the change should be uncontroversial.

But significant obstacles continue to block wider constitutional reform. Amendments require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the Diet, and a majority in a popular referendum, making Japan’s constitution one of the world’s most difficult to revise. To facilitate his ambitions, Abe hopes to scale down the requirement to simple majorities in both chambers or eliminate the need for a public referendum.

Given popular resistance to change, Abe’s task will not be easy. Whereas citizens of most democracies regard their constitutions as works in progress – India, for example, has

amended its constitution 99 times since 1950 – the Japanese largely treat their constitution as sacrosanct. As a result, rather than ensuring that their constitution reflects social, technological, economic, and even ideological developments, they zealously uphold its precise provisions, like religious fundamentalists defending the literal truth of scripture.

Moreover, pacifism is deeply ingrained in the Japanese psyche, even among young people, largely owing to the painful legacy of Japan’s prewar militarism. Indeed, a poll conducted by the World Values Survey last year revealed that only 15.3% of Japanese – compared with 74.2% of Chinese and 57.7% of Americans – would be prepared to defend their country, the lowest rate in the world. Just 9.5% of Japanese under the age of 30 said that they would be willing to fight.

Given such opposition, an actual revision of Article 9, rather than just a reinterpretation, does not seem feasible, especially while the avowedly pacifist Komeito party remains part of the ruling coalition. Even if Abe manages to relax the amendment requirements – no easy feat, given the likelihood that a popular referendum would reveal weak public support – he will probably have to leave the change to his successor.

But one factor could bolster Abe’s cause considerably.

Explicit US support for Japanese constitutional reform might not only blunt Chinese criticism, but could also reassure many Japanese that updating Article 9 would not amount to rejecting the postwar order that the Americans helped to establish in Japan.

Such a move would also serve US security interests. A more confident and secure Japan would be better able to block China from gaining ascendancy in the western Pacific, thereby advancing the central US policy objective of ensuring a stable balance of power in Asia. No other country in the region could act as a credible counterweight to China.

Today’s Japan – a liberal democracy that has not fired a single shot against an outside party in nearly seven decades, and that has made major contributions to global development during this period – is very different from the Japan of 1947. Its constitution should reflect that.

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research., is the author of Asian Juggernaut, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, and Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

Japan’s beheaded illusions

By Yuriko Koike Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was on a six-day tour of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, and Palestine, when the Islamic State posted a video online threatening to murder two Japanese hostages, Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto, if his government did not pay $200 mln within 72 hours. Abe had no good options. Indeed, when it comes to protecting its citizens overseas, Japan never does.

When Abe failed to bow to its demands, the Islamic State released a second video claiming that Yukawa, who was seized last August in Syria while reportedly preparing to establish a Japan-based private security company, had been beheaded. Goto, a journalist who traveled to Syria last October to try to secure Yukawa’s release, will supposedly be spared if Japan secures Jordan’s release of a convicted terrorist.

In fact, Goto’s wife had received an email demanding a ransom of JPY 2 bln ($17 mln) in December. But it seems that Abe’s Middle East tour presented a greater opportunity for the Islamic State to make the most of its Japanese hostages.

The Islamic State’s ransom demand was not just a bid for cash; it sent a powerful message. Just three days before the demand was made, Abe pledged to provide $200 mln in

non-military humanitarian aid to frontline countries in the fight against the Islamic State, including Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, all of which have taken in large numbers of refugees.

The Islamic State explicitly directed the video to both Japan’s government and its citizens, evidently hoping that the largely pacifist Japanese would press their leaders to back down. And, to some extent, their expectation was met; some opposition members of Japan’s Diet tweeted that Abe should cancel the promised aid. Needless to say, Abe’s government ignored their advice.

When the ransom demand did not work, the Islamic State shifted its approach, but not its goal. The prisoner whose release it had demanded in exchange for Goto was Sajida alRishawi, who faces the death penalty in Jordan for her role in hotel bombings in Amman in 2005. The group seems to believe that forcing Japan and Jordan to negotiate such a trade could undermine the countries’ longstanding relationship.

The Islamic State probably knows that Japan has historically placed the safety of its own citizens above all other considerations – even if it meant bowing to terrorists’ demands.

When the Japanese Red Army hijacked a Japan Airlines flight to Dhaka Airport in Bangladesh in 1977, Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda not only paid the $6 mln ransom; he also resorted to the “extralegal measure” of handing over imprisoned members of the faction. “The weight of a human life,” he declared, “is heavier than the earth itself.”

This response stands in stark contrast to

Israel’s behaviour a year earlier, when the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) hijacked an Air France flight with 256 passengers. Instead of giving the group what they wanted – the release of 53 militants imprisoned in Israel and four other countries – the Israeli Army launched Operation Thunderbolt, rescuing the hostages at Uganda’s Entebbe Airport. Only three hostages and one Israeli commando – Yonatan Netanyahu, the elder brother of current Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu – were killed in the operation.

But Fukuda’s response was not entirely a matter of choice. Under Japan’s constitution, neither the country’s self-defense forces nor the police would have had legal grounds to travel overseas to rescue endangered Japanese citizens. In any case, neither force would have had the training necessary to pull off something like Operation Thunderbolt.

The Dhaka episode was hardly the first time that threats against Japanese citizens had exposed this shortcoming. Seven years earlier, a forerunner to the Japanese Red Army hijacked another Japan Airlines flight – the “Yodogo” – and demanded to be taken to North Korea. The Japanese authorities got lucky: When the pilot landed first in South Korea, the hijackers released their 129 hostages in exchange for permission to continue to Pyongyang, where they gained asylum.

Two years later, nine members of the Japanese Red Army, recruited by the PFLP, attacked Tel Aviv’s Lod Airport, killing 26 people and injuring 80 others. And, in the late

1970s and early 1980s, the wives of the Yodogo hijackers went to Europe, where they are suspected of abducting young Japanese students and taking them to North Korea.

As the Islamic State’s actions demonstrate, Japanese are still at risk – and their government still lacks adequate tools to protect them. Fortunately, Abe – whose efforts to rescue Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea fueled his political rise – seems to recognise the need for change.

Since World War II, military considerations have barely factored into Japanese policy, and official development assistance, which began as war reparations, has placed international imperatives above domestic concerns. But, after playing benefactor to the world for 60 years, Japan’s diplomatic and crisismanagement capabilities have been severely weakened.

It is unacceptable for a government to be unable to protect its own citizens. That is why Abe is determined to amend, or at least reinterpret, Japan’s constitution to allow for the kinds of defense maneuvers that other countries, from Israel to India, employ when their people are threatened. As US Supreme Court Justice Robert Jackson once put it, a constitution is not a suicide pact.

Yuriko Koike, Japan’s former defense minister and national security adviser, was Chairwoman of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party’s General Council and currently is a member of the National Diet. © Project Syndicate, 2015. www.project-syndicate.org

February 4 - 10, 2015

financialmirror.com | WORLD | 23

The responsible investor’s guide to climate change

By Jeffrey D. Sachs and Lisa Sachs Around the world, institutional investors – including pension funds, insurance companies, philanthropic endowments, and universities – are grappling with the question of whether to divest from oil, gas, and coal companies. The reason, of course, is climate change: unless fossil-fuel consumption is cut sharply – and phased out entirely by around 2070, in favour of zero-carbon energy such as solar power – the world will suffer unacceptable risks from humaninduced global warming. How should responsible investors behave in the face of these unprecedented risks?

Divestment is indeed one answer, for several reasons. One is simple self-interest: the fossil-fuel industry will be a bad investment in a world that is shifting decisively to renewables.

(Though there will be exceptions; for example, fossil-fuel development in the poorest countries will continue even after cutbacks are demanded in the rich countries, in order to advance poverty reduction.)

Indeed, divestment by leading investors sends a powerful message to the world that climate change is far too dangerous to accept further delays in the transition to a low-carbon future.

Divestment is not the only way to send such a message, but it is a potentially powerful one.

Finally, investors may divest for moral reasons. Many investors do not want to be associated with an industry responsible for potential global calamity, and especially with companies that throw their money and influence against meaningful action to combat climate change. For similar reasons, many investors do not want handgun manufacturers or tobacco companies in their portfolios.

Yet there is also an ethically responsible and practical alternative to divestment that can help steer fossil-fuel companies toward the low-carbon future. As active, engaged shareholders, institutional investors can use their ownership (and, in the case of large investors, their public voice) to help persuade companies to adopt climate-safe policies.

American universities are on the front line of this debate, pushed by their students, who are young enough to face the

brunt of climate change in the coming decades. The students are right to be frustrated that most university endowments have so far been passive on the issue, neither divesting nor engaging as active investors. For example, Harvard University President Drew Gilpin Faust sharply rejected divestment in 2013; the purpose of Harvard’s endowment, she argued, is to finance the university’s academic activities. Though she did say that Harvard would be an active and responsible shareholder, she offered no details about what such engagement might look like.

Harvard and many other universities (including our own, Columbia University) have long been committed to acting as responsible investors. Several have committees that advise university trustees on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues in their portfolio, most commonly when proxy votes in support of ESG proposals are to be held. Yet, few so far have applied the ESG principles to their endowment’s fossilfuel holdings.

Today’s students make cogent arguments that the case for fossil-fuel divestment looks similar to the case for tobacco divestment. Both represent massive risks to human wellbeing.

Before divesting from tobacco companies, Harvard wrote to them, requesting that they address the ethical issues involved in selling tobacco and their adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines. The companies either were unresponsive or challenged the evidence that smoking was linked to disease.

Similarly, in deciding whether to divest, responsible investors like universities should ask four key questions of the oil, gas and coal companies in their portfolio: - Has the company publicly and clearly subscribed to the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and to the limits on global carbon-dioxide emissions needed to meet that goal?

- Will the company pledge to leave business groups that lobby against effective climate policies to achieve the 2C limit?

- Will the company agree to end any exploration and development of unconventional reserves (for example, in the Arctic and much of the Canadian oil sands) that science has shown to be inconsistent with the 2C limit?

- Can the company demonstrate that it remains a good investment, despite the transition to low-carbon energy sources and technologies (for example, by demonstrating its own plans to make such a transition or highlighting its contributions to poverty reduction)?

If companies can give convincing answers to these four questions, they may indeed remain part of the portfolio, and responsible investors can work with them as part of the climate solution, rather than concluding that they are part of the problem and parting ways. For those companies that duck the questions, including by claiming that the world will not in fact enforce the 2C limit, divestment would make sense on both financial and ethical grounds, as such companies are clearly not prepared to contribute to creating a low-carbon economy.

Of course, the need for climate action does not stop with investors; sustainable consumption and production practices by businesses and individuals must be part of the solution as well. The transition to a safe, low-carbon future requires all parts of society to act responsibly and with foresight. As leaders in education, research, and problem solving, universities have a unique responsibility and opportunity to lead, including as responsible and ethical investors.

Jeffrey Sachs is the Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Lisa Sachs is Director of the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

Harnessing disruption for sustainability

By Simon Zadek After decades of reluctance on the part of world leaders, a rapid, smooth, and purposeful transition toward sustainable development seems unlikely. Indeed, throughout human history, such major changes have more often been forced upon the world by circumstances, with leaders focusing on shorter-term concerns like political turmoil or economic stagnation until serious disruptions to their economies and societies arise.

But this need not be the case. Policymakers can develop solutions that leverage immediate challenges to guide the shift toward a more sustainable, inclusive future.

This year, which has been dubbed “the year of sustainable development,” provides an ideal opportunity in this regard. At high-level meetings in Sendai, Japan, in March and in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in July, world leaders will pursue closer collaboration on disasterrisk reduction and on mobilising finance for development, respectively. In September, the United Nations will launch its Sustainable Development Goals, to serve as the framework for global development efforts until 2030.

Moreover, global climate negotiations will

reach a critical point in December, when world leaders meet for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. And the agendas of the forthcoming G-7 and G-20 summits will both feature measures to combat climate change.

Such multilateral frameworks catalyse progress. Indeed, agreements like last year’s deal between China and the United States to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions – not to mention initiatives to mobilise business, such as We Mean Business – are unlikely to happen without them. Nonetheless, as Mancur Olson famously observed, it is the individual interests of the parties that drive collective success.

For example, China’s recent embrace of sustainable development, which will serve the planet’s long-term interests, is driven by the domestic challenges posed by air, water, and land pollution. Rather than agonise over growing disruptions, China’s government has decided to hasten the shift toward a dynamic green economy, even if it means stranding assets and allowing businesses that do not suit China’s shifting needs to fail – an approach that will deliver a long-term competitive advantage. The rest of the world should recognise the benefits of allowing short-term disruptions to drive, not distract from, the sustainability agenda.

One area where such an opportunity is already apparent is financial reform. Today’s historically low interest rates should encourage long-term investment, as they

lower the current cost of capital. But new financial regulatory frameworks – such as Basel III, which aims to reduce risk in the banking sector, and Solvency II, the European Union’s equivalent for insurance companies – are inadvertently discouraging such investment. This undermines both short-term efforts to boost employment and the longterm objective of sustainable growth.

It does not have to be this way. As the UN Environment Programme emphasised in a briefing at the World Economic Forum in Davos, saving the financial sector from itself can accelerate the transition to sustainable development. For example, effective risk management and longer-term policy objectives would be better aligned if regulators reduced capital requirements for banks that extend loans for climate-resilient and environmentally friendly investments.

Similarly, central banks’ inflated balance sheets – the result of short-term crisisresponse measures – could, through refinancing arrangements, be used to boost green investment. Further quantitative easing, such as by the European Central Bank, could be directed toward greener asset-backed securities.

Even perverse signals can be mitigated and leveraged. Instead of allowing low oil prices to encourage consumption, governments could take the opportunity to impose a small, politically acceptable energy or carbonequivalent tax – an approach advocated by

many economists and development specialists, including Jeffrey Sachs, Lawrence Summers, and Kemal Dervifl. Such a tax would not only sustain the price signals needed to steer societies onto a more sustainable energy path; it would also provide revenues that could be channeled toward employment creation and long-term green investments, thereby leveraging private capital.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has taken the lead in initiating a prudential review of the impact of climate change on the United Kingdom’s insurance sector. Other institutions – including multilateral bodies like the Bank of International Settlements, the Financial Stability Board, and the G-20 – should follow suit.

What the world needs now are leaders who are willing to bridge the gap between daunting short-term demands and desirable long-term outcomes. Instead of remaining preoccupied with the present, world leaders should view 2015 as an opportunity to ensure that today’s disruptive crises provide the foundation for tomorrow’s sustainable prosperity.

Simon Zadek is Co-Director of the UNEP Inquiry into the Design of a Sustainable Financial System, a visiting scholar at Tsinghua School of Economics and Management, and a senior fellow at the Global Green Growth Institute and the International Institute for Sustainable Development. © Project Syndicate, 2015. www.project-syndicate.org

February 4 - 10, 2015

24 | BACK PAGE | financialmirror.com

The ECB and its critics QE has its downside as well, but every currency union should pursue its own price stability In Northern Europe, especially Germany, the European Central Bank’s decision to embark on quantitative easing (QE) has triggered an avalanche of indictments. Many are unfounded or even baseless. Some are confusing. Others give greater weight to speculative dangers than to actual ones. And few point to real problems, while ignoring potential solutions. Judging by the criticism, one might consider zero inflation a blessing.

But if that were true, central banks around the world would have set it as a target long ago.

Instead, all of them define price stability as low, stable, but positive inflation.

That is because zero inflation has three overwhelmingly negative consequences. First, it erodes the effectiveness of standard monetary policy (because if interest rates went much below zero, depositors would withdraw cash from banks and put it in safes).

Second, it makes relative wages (of, say, manufacturing versus services employees) more rigid, because wage contracts are generally set in euro terms. And, third, it increases the burden of past debts and makes exiting from a private or public debt crisis even more painful.

But, say the critics, there is no reason to worry, because the eurozone’s near-zero inflation is merely the result of the sharp drop in oil prices. Unfortunately, there is indeed plenty of reason to worry. Consumer price inflation in the eurozone has been below target for 22 consecutive months – long before the price of oil started collapsing. Cheaper oil is a

boon for growth; but it also lowers long-term inflation expectations, which are the true target of monetary policy.

Then there is the critics’ claim that belowtarget inflation is needed to restore competitiveness. This is just confusing. It is true that rebalancing competitiveness within the eurozone has not yet been completed, and that some countries thus need to record below-average inflation to cut above-average costs. But this is not true of the eurozone as a whole. Eurozone-wide competitiveness depends on product quality and the euro exchange rate, which is flexible. Inflation is irrelevant in this respect.

Nonetheless, the ECB’s critics fear the sorcerer’s apprentice: monetary initiatives like QE will ultimately cause runaway inflation. This reasoning is strange, at best. If the critics’ point is that central banks make mistakes, it seems worth pointing out that the mistake made in the eurozone was to let inflation reach excessively low levels.

Now the ECB is reacting with force, but, as Japanese policymakers have found, exiting from deflation is far from easy. ECB President Mario Draghi may fail to bring inflation back to 2%. Or he may overshoot. Nobody knows. But it is odd to claim that a speculative danger should prevent the ECB from fighting one that is all too real.

Then comes the claim that QE is illegal.

But the ECB’s primary responsibility is to achieve and maintain price stability. When conventional interest-rate policy becomes

By Jean Pisani-Ferry

impotent, its duty is to rely on other instruments. The purchase of government bonds is explicitly authorized by the EU Treaty.

This is not to say that QE has no downside.

It probably will create asset-price bubbles.

Ultra-low interest rates lift asset prices in two ways: they increase the present value of the future income stream of a stock or a fixedincome bond; and they make credit and property purchases more affordable. So, assetprice inflation is likely, and policymakers will have to contain it through regulatory tools, such as credit limits.

Moreover, QE probably will increase inequality. The rise in the price of stocks, bonds, and land will increase their owners’ wealth. Obviously, those without property will not benefit. But the ECB’s monetary initiative will also help reignite growth and create jobs, thereby benefiting the poor. It is governments’ task to address the rise in inequality resulting from QE, and they have an instrument for that: taxation.

When the United States Federal Reserve embarked on QE, it was accused of exporting its problems, because aggressive monetary easing inevitably weakens the currency. The same charge is now being leveled against the ECB. But this is misleading. Ultimately, the US recovery helped its trade partners more than it hurt them. In today’s world of global monetary interdependence, the rule of the game is that every currency union should pursue its own price stability. The ECB has not departed from this standard.

Another major concern in Germany is that QE could be a backdoor means of creating Eurobonds. But a Eurobond is a pact among issuers offering each other mutual guarantees.

The ECB, however, is not an issuer; it is an

independent agency, and the decision to buy is its own. Furthermore, 80% of the risk will be borne by national central banks individually.

Northern European opposition to Eurobonds reflects moral-hazard concerns that monetary activism will discourage structural reforms. But, in the current context of protracted stagnation, the TINA (there is no alternative) argument for reform is losing strength by the day. Absent a visible payoff, reform fatigue is setting in. The new policy mix should combine macro-level support and micro-level change.

The argument that QE will destroy fiscal discipline cannot be rejected out of hand, because both its proponents and its adversaries seem to agree that its days are over.

But, though it is true that ECB bond purchases will shelter governments from market pressure, such pressure was already fairly ineffective. It is governments’ job to uphold their end of the bargain and ensure that they do not shirk their responsibilities.

This is what the EU’s “fiscal compact” is for.

Finally, German critics complain that the ECB’s monetary policy is not geared to German economic conditions. This is both true and unavoidable. The ECB is responsible for the eurozone as a whole. Its monetary policy cannot be perfectly suited to all members’ needs all of the time. For the euro’s first ten years, the ECB’s policy was too lax for Spain; now it is too lax for Germany. The ECB should not be blamed for doing its job.

Jean Pisani-Ferry is a professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, and currently serves as the French government’s Commissioner-General for Policy Planning. © Project Syndicate, 2015. www.project-syndicate.org

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