Financial Mirror 2015 02 11 by Financial Mirror

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Issue No. 1121 €1.00 February 11 - 17, 2015

“Let’s talk business” INVESTORS CONVERGE ON LIMASSOL SUMMIT - PAGE 4 - 5

ANATOLE KALETSKY Greece is playing to lose-PAGE

ANDREAS THEOPHANOUS Bold but rational approach-PAGE

February 11 - 17, 2015

2 | OPINION | financialmirror.com

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As Carnival time approaches, politicians seem to be taking their cue and imitating the clowns that will be parading up and down our streets next week, only this time, they continue to make a fool of themselves over the endless scandals that keep on popping up. First it was the party-approved developers and crooked supermarket owners, then it was the incompetent bankers who crashed the economy and Cyta trade union bosses taking bribes for land deals, followed by last year’s revelations of the widespread corruption in the Caliphate of Paphos where anything goes – from free mobile phones and concert kickbacks, to backhanders for the as-yet incomplete sewerage system. Even the local chapter of Transparency International issued a mild warning saying that a mere handful of MPs had so far filed their personal statements, leaving the majority of deputies undisturbed by the suspicion that our elected representatives do not care about conflict of interest. That is probably why the blame-game is afoot, with rival party bosses blaming each other for anything and everything. We all agree that in this day and age of a need to

keep the moral high ground, the President of the Republic and his family members ought to have been outright about their advisory deal with Ryanair over a prospective Cyprus Airways takeover. Ironically, though, the accusers are often so deeply stuck in rotten and stinking mud, that no one knows who to believe nowadays. On the other hand, the recent list of tax evaders includes names and transactions that are more than a decade old and have probably been lingering in a dusty dossier somewhere at the local tax office. Once again, these lists serve no other purpose than to push public opinion away from the real problems of the nation – a struggling economy, unsatisfactory projections and a desperate need by all to satisfy the grumpy civil servants for fear of losing precious votes. Almost two years into his term, President Anastasiades and his team are only now starting to talk about reforms, even though we have yet to hear anything about the six Deputy Ministers’ posts that were promised a very long time ago. Our leader had declared in New York that after his heart operation he would be back with a vengeance to get things moving. It would seem that he probably forgot his magic wand in his hospital room, as he doesn’t have any pixiedust, either, in order to sprinkle over the courtiers that surround him. Ah well, back to the carnival parade. At least there we can have a real laugh…

THE FINANCIAL MIRROR THIS WEEK 10 YEARS AGO

CSE rally continues, new Green Line trade deal The CSE rally was expected to continue as volume shot up and investors returned encouraged by analysts forecasts of CYP 40.5 mln profits for Bank of Cyprus, pushing the stock to EUR 3.08/CYP 1.79. In other news, a new Green Line trade deal was expected “in a few days”, while the courts in Limassol decided that the hearing of a grain trader’s suit against BNP would commence in April, according to the Financial Mirror issue 606, on February 2, 2005. CSE rally: The stock market rally is expected to continue following the bullish close of Bank of Cyprus shares in Greece amid expectations that record profit growth among major blue-chips, coupled with dividend declarations, will attract more investors to

20 YEARS AGO

Offshores up 70%, interest rate ceiling Offshore company registrations surged 70% in 1994, according to official data, while Central Bank chief Afxentis Afxentiou called for the 50-year law on interest rate ceilings to be scrapped, according to the Cyprus Financial Mirror issue 98, on February 15, 1995.

the market. BOCY shares, which are expected to open well bid following the bullish close of the shares on Sophocleous at EUR 3.08 or CYP 1.79. In intra-day trading a day before, Sophocleous marked up BOCY shares to a fresh record high of EUR 3.12/CYP 1.82. The 7-cent gap between the ASE and the CSE is likely to bring renewed buying on the Cyprus exchange, following the euphoria after the EFG Eurobank investment report forecast profits at CYP 42.5 mln and possible dividends at 304c a share. Green Line trade: President Tassos Papadopoulos said that his government has drafted a new document with amendments to the ‘Green Line Regulations’ that will benefit the Turkish Cypriots to pave the way for the implementation of full bi-communal trade. One of the changes is to abandon VAT and prevent sellers from registering with the Republic’s VAT Service. Grain hearing: A Limassol-based train trading

company is suing BNPI and Swiss affiliate BNP Paribas (Suisse) SA for about $170 mln in a case seeking damages due to a claim of breach of trust. The bank is denying all charges, filing a counterclaim that alleges the Black Sea grain company, MarkMan Ltd., operated by Antonis Toskas and Sergei Piliugin, failed in its repayment obligations to the bank back in 20002002. Mobile rates drop: Local mobile phone rates are expected to drop by up to 40% while the fixed telephony rent is expected to rise by CYP 7-8 per month, as part of a major cost adjustment that Cyta will announce in the next 15 days. The state-owned telco also announced cost reductions of up to 77% ion international fixed line call rates, with tariffs to Greece nd the UK falling by 21-27%. Eurocypria loan: Cyprus Airways Chairman Constantinos Loizides has defended the decision of the Eurocypria board to provide a CYP 3 mln loan to CAIR’s troubled subsidiary Hellas Jet, that is reportedly losing CYP 1 mln a month.

Offshores up: New offshore company registrations reached 3,921 in 1994, up 69.2% over the previous year, while shipping company registrations reached 656, up 20.1% from 1993, the Registrar announced, adding that total company registration in 1994 reached 8,501, up 32% from 1993. Interest rates: Central Bank Governor Afxentis Afxentiou has called for the law on interest rate ceiling, set in 1944, to be scrapped as a free floating

rate, determined by the market forces and recommended by the EU, would even allow rates to fall. Trade deficit up: The trade deficit reached CYP 919 mln in the January-November period of 1994, an increase of 12.7% over the same year-earlier period, despite a rise in exports to CYP 431 mln. Hilton changes: The Cyprus Hilton is marking its 30th anniversary with a refurbished new look that is almost ready to open to the public, with a bigger lobby area, a new Executive Wing and a new restaurant area to replace the Fontana Amorosa, the Desdemona and the Orangery.

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Stabilisation ahead, growth at 0.4%, Russia affects The Cyprus economy is showing signs of stabilisation, with mild growth rates of 0.4% this year and 1.6% in the next, but the improvement in economic sentiment indicators has come to a halt, according to the European Commission’s Economic Forecast for Winter 2015. While lower oil prices are expected to support growth, external demand will suffer from headwinds from the Russian economy and fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, the forecast said. The forecast figures for Cyprus will be updated after the sixth review of Cyprus’ Economic Adjustment Programme has taken place, which has currently been suspended due to a delay in the introduction of a framework for foreclosures and insolvencies, an obligation as part of the EUR 10 bln bailout plan with the Troika of international lenders. GDP BOTTOMING OUT Economic activity declined by 1.7% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2014, a slight improvement relative to the second quarter, driven by developments in private consumption and investment, including a one-off large purchase of transport equipment, which also boosted imports. Excluding this transaction, the growth momentum in both real imports and real investment remained subdued, the EC forecast said. Real exports weakened in the third quarter, down 4.5% yo-y, which associated with the temporary pick-up in imports has worsened the current account. Unemployment has been flat hovering around 16%, with

Hellenic Bank eyes organic growth, to double loanbook Hellenic Bank, the third biggest lender that is trying to shed its conservative image of the past by attracting new business, aims to use its strong liquid assets base to double its loan portfolio through organic growth, and not through acquiring distressed or other portfolios. But new loans will probably have to wait until parliament approves the final batch of laws on foreclosures and insolvencies, that have kept the rate of nonperforming loans in the island’s banking system hovering at about 50% of the national loanbook, more than double the rate at bailed-out Ireland. Hellenic’s NPLs in its 9-month results appeared at 56% of the EUR 4.4 bln loan book, up from 46% at the end of 2013. The bank’s CEO, Bert Pijls, has said that demand for new loans is strong, as its recent offer of “cheap loans” for corporates carrying a 3% interest, has already attracted bids for EUR 45 mln from a pool of EUR 70 mln co-financed by the European Investment Bank. “We are looking at opportunities to maybe invest our liquid assets slightly differently but within the prudent management the bank has always had in the past,” Pijls told the Cyprus News Agency. As a result, Pijs added, the recently recapitalised lender that boasts Daniel Loeb’s Third Point Hellenic Recovery Fund and online game developers Wargaming.net among its major shareholders, has seen its deposit base rising steadily in 2014 and in 2015. According to Financial Mirror data, deposits as at September 30 were up 11% year-on-year to EUR 6.13 bln, from 5.51 bln in the same nine-month period last year. And this at a time when the Central Bank of Cyprus announced that September saw the highest deposits outflow from the banking system since July 2013, as total deposits fell by EUR 850.6 mln. “When there is uncertainty, it is better to be liquid. Being liquid means we are strong, liquidity means we have an opportunity to grow,” Pijls said. The CEO is confident that the bank will double its lending in 2015 over 2014 but cautioned that the absence of a proper legal framework on foreclosures, which is currently the thorny issue of Cyprus’ economic adjustment programme.

continued to improve, business sentiment in most sectors weakened with the exception of service sector confidence which improved somewhat. Although retail trade indicators suggest an improving growth momentum in the short term, this is offset by weakness in short-term indicators for credit and tourist arrivals, in particular Russian tourists, reflecting the negative economic developments in Russia.

continued, albeit slower, contraction in employment offset by a further fall in labour force. Against the background of low capacity utilisation and continued wage adjustment, inflationary pressures remain weak. HICP inflation in 2014 has been supported by prices of goods consumed by tourists, while prices of goods consumed by locals have continued to fall and energy prices fell strongly as well in end-2014. ECONOMIC SENTIMENT FLAT Economic sentiment remained broadly unchanged in the second half of 2014, putting on hold the improvement observed since April 2013. While consumer confidence

TIMID RECOVERY IN 2015-2016 In 2015 and 2016, growth is forecast to resume only gradually as private domestic demand slowly picks up supported by lower energy prices, the EC forecast said. GDP growth is expected to reach 0.4% this year and 1.6% in 2016, after a contraction of -5.4% in 2013 and -2.8% last year. This should be accompanied by gradual deleveraging of both households and corporates and a reduction of the nonperforming loans (NPL) ratio (now at close to 50%) down to more sustainable levels. The moderate pick-up in domestic demand is expected to be reflected into improved labour market conditions, with unemployment starting to ease gradually. HICP inflation is also expected to remain low, weighed down by recent declines in oil prices.

Grains Commission needs urgent facelift, says departing vice chairman The Deputy Chairman of the Cyprus Grains Commission, established in 1960 as a state-controlled monopoly to ensure low prices for grain imports and maintain the country’s strategic reserves, resigned this week, but urged the government to restructure it and make it more competitive to benefit farmers and consumers. In his resignation letter submitted last Wednesday on the grounds of increased professional commitments, Alexis Tsielepis said that he worked hard during the past 13 months, despite the numerous interventions and undermining of the Commission’s work. His conclusions are that the state should get more involved and make the Commission more competitive to keep grain prices at low levels and to ensure the uninterrupted supply both to farmers and to households. Numbering the problems at the Commission, Tsielepis noted that those in key positions did not work in a proper manner to face the problems, but with the blessing of past governments “kept the ship afloat, with the hope that it would someday reach a safe port and not sink.” “There is no free competition in the grains market, as evidenced from the shortfalls in the CGC’s stores. Until the next shipment is received, competitors take advantage and hike prices. There seems to be some collusion, a cartel even.” But Tsielepis said that the biggest problem was the Commission’s high operational cost. “Using simple math, the CGC needs to at 25 euros a tonne to its buying price to cover wages. Of these, 16 euros go direct

to the payroll. If the CGC’s competitors need a 5-6 euro margin to cover their own costs, instead of adding a reasonable profit margin and selling their grains at 8 to 10 euros a tonne, they sell 16 or 18 euros a tonne, thus making super profits and still appearing more competitive than the CGC prices. In other words, through its high payroll, the CGC is contributing to maintaining prices at high levels, with the whole of Cyprus burdened with higher prices for bread, milk, souvlaki, halloumi, etc.” Tsielepis said that there is a need for a competitive grain’s commission, but based on new foundations, and not necessarily shutting it down or privatising it, as some part of the media have suggested. “I am convinced that if the CGC closes down, the market will become an oligopoly by some suppliers who will continue to impose cartel conditions, with prices continuing to rise, as a result,” he said, adding this would impact the consumer basket by raising the prices of bread and any flour-based goods, as well as dairy products and meat.” The “provocative salaries” that some refer to as an excuse to shut down the CGC are no different from the admittedly high wages in the public sector, while the idea to change the CGC’s role to that of a regulator has a real risk of failure, as is the case of other regulators, Tsielepis said. He explained that according to the plan, the CGC would maintain its strategic silo in Limassol and establish a new CGC commercial enterprise, both state-owned.

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February 11 - 17, 2015

4 | CYPRUS | financialmirror.com

“Let’s talk business” Investors keen in malls, Venus Rock project Major foreign investors are keen to pump millions into the Cyprus economy, both to join private sector projects, as well as take part in the island’s privatisation programme. News reports suggest that the investors and fund managers from the likes of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Societe Generale, HSBC and at least 15 funds from the Arab world, listened to a parade of government officials during the two-day Cyprus Investors Summit, trying to persuade them about stability, a recovering economy and compliance with demands of international lenders. Antenna TV reported that following the early-morning official session on Tuesday, foreign investors expressed interest in the Mall of Cyprus in Nicosia and the Limni Bay Resort, both operated by the Shacolas Group, the Venus Rock resort in Paphos, the Nicosia City Mall in Lakatamia, as well as other mostly property related projects. The investors, that included Mohammed Elqeheisi from Saudi Arabia and Colin Wright from the Buena Vista Group, will view some of these projects on Wednesday. Other projects presented at the summit include the Makronisos Marina, Lord Byron Tower, Sandarosa Tower, Neapolis Eco City in Paphos, Vasa Gold Resort, Macedonitissa States, Pafilia Tower and Limassol Landmark, St Elizabeth Gold Resort, Elea Estates, Pavilion Business Center and the Delmar in Limassol. In all, the organiser Cyprus Investment Promotion Agency (CIPA) presented 18 major projects, while during their presentations, Finance Minister Haris Georgiades and Privatisations Commissioner Constantinos Herodotou talked about the government’s roadmap to sell state-owned

companies such as telco Cyta, power company EAC and prime properties, as well as management deals for the ports and a super license for an integrated casino resort. President Nicos Anastasiades addressed the delegates during the official dinner on Monday night. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Georgiades said that the fundamentals of the Cypriot economy had improved significantly and the foundations have been laid for a more sustainable growth model. “Thanks to the measures taken by the government, the overall fiscal deficit and excessive deficits for 2014 have been eliminated. Some referred to this as austerity. I call it a balanced budget. And this, of course, reflects positively on the overall public debt which is now on a downward path.” He added that “this combination of economic recovery and fiscal consolidation has also been instrumental when it comes to meeting yet another key policy objective which is the restoration of international confidence and sustainable access to international capital markets.” Georgiades said that the perception that fiscal consolidation always leads to a deepening recession and rising unemployment is incorrect. In fact, he added, we have showed that economic recovery does not always require a continuous increase of public spending. As he said, instead of dealing with the “austerity or growth” dilemma, “we would be more productive if we ensure that fiscal consolidation and economic growth go hand in hand. We are determined to continue in this direction,” he concluded. Energy, Commerce and Tourism Minister

Yiorgos Lakkotrypis elaborated on the government’s plans for tourism and energy, adding that 2015 will be a year of growth. He expressed the hope that efforts would yield results and foreign investments would come to Cyprus. John Hourican, CEO of Bank of Cyprus, the gold sponsor of the summit, said that the bank is ready to support the large scale projects, adding that “this summit marks the point of flux for opportunity in Cyprus. More stable, with maturing conditions, and a stable recovery, the island can now talk about future prospects without being haunted by past events. We are now only looking forward.” Recapitalisation of the Bank of Cyprus, following a EUR 1 bln share capital increase in August 2014, marked a tangible “seal of approval” for the path towards the

economy’s overall recovery, Hourican said. “In the largest FDI inflow in the country’s history, we attracted world class investment, driving home the bank’s own recovery from the events of last year, but also securing that Cyprus is now on a recovery path from which it cannot, and will not, stray.” CIPA Director General Charis Papacharalambous, CIPA Chairman Christodoulos Angastiniotis, Central Bank Governor Chrystalla Georghadji, Director of the Wealth, Brokerage and Asset Management at the Bank of Cyprus Costas Argyrides and President of the Cyprus Investment Funds Association (CIFA) Angelos Gregoriades were also among the speakers of the Summit. The sponsor of the event was the law firm of L Papaphilippou & Co., www.papaphilippou.eu

Confidence returning to the banking sector Cyprus will slowly but steadily emerge stronger from the recent downturn, the Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus Chrystalla Georghadji told delegates at the Investors’ Summit, adding that a series of reforms have taken place following the unprecedented and challenging events the banking system and the wider economy faced during 2013. She said that important steps towards fully restoring confidence and stability have been taken, in cooperation with the ECB, the IMF, and the European Commission, and that the four systemic banks – Bank of Cyprus, Cooperative Central Bank, Hellenic Bank and RCB Bank – are now directly supervised by the European Central Bank. “The confidence of the international community is returning to the Cyprus banking sector. It is pleasing to see that the recent restructuring work and reforms are already delivering promising results, and the sector is coming out of this difficult juncture in a strong and healthier condition,” she stressed. The centralbanker said that restructuring and cleaning up a bank’s balance sheet is not easy, and market conditions remain challenging. However, Georghadji noted, this also provides opportunities. “We remain fully committed to the implementation of the programme agreed with the international

lenders and in re-establishing a thriving banking sector that can effectively meet the needs of businesses and households,” she added. “In the past 18 months, experienced foreign investors have participated with significant funds and have taken substantial positions in several banks incorporated in Cyprus,” she added. These capital injections, Georghadji said, constitute some of the largest foreign

investments seen in the history of the Cypriot economy. “The Cypriot economy and society in general have exhibited considerable flexibility and endurance, keeping the country resilient even after the recent dramatic developments. In particular, while the Troika in its fifth assessment of the Cyprus economic adjustment programme last July, predicted a real GDP decline of 4.2% for 2014, the recent revised forecasts by the IMF and the

European Commission project a real GDP decline of 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively. Even better, according to the latest available data, the Central Bank of Cyprus expects a decline of around 2.5%. For 2015 the economy is expected to do better and rebound with a marginal positive growth,” she noted. The developments regarding public finances, Georghadji said, were significantly better than expected compared to past estimates by the international lenders. “In its fifth assessment Troika forecasts a budget deficit of 4.7% of GDP for 2014. However, most recent estimates suggest that the budget deficit will be substantially smaller. This revision enables a relatively more optimistic fiscal outlook for 2015, provided of course that the consistent and prudent implementation of the state budget continues,” she added. It is important for the wider economy and public finances, Georghadji said, that the EUR 1 bln buffer provided within the 10 bln Troika programme will not be needed to cover any capital shortfalls in the banking system. The improving capital position of the banks, she noted, provides the opportunity to either reduce the lending required from the programme and the national debt by EUR 1 bln, or consider whether this may be allocated to other areas.

February 11 - 17, 2015

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 5

Anastasiades: “We have turned the page” The economy is on the road to full recovery, President Nicos Anastasiades told delegates at the Cyprus Investors Summit in Limassol on Monday night, but added that a delay in the review of Cyprus’ economic adjustment programme by the Troika of international lenders “was unnecessary.” The review has been held back by the inspectors from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF, because opposition parties in parliament have held back a bill on foreclosures that would help banks recover their non-performing loans. On the other hand, red tape has also delayed the conclusion of a parallel framework on insolvencies, aimed to secure primary homes from going under the hammer. “We have turned the page. The economy is now on the road towards full recovery,” said the President. He said that the financial sector had been restructured and recapitalised, mainly through big international investors, and the credit institutions had passed the European stress tests with success. He added that fiscal imbalances have been addressed and important structural reforms were well underway. President Anastasiades pointed out that Cyprus was returning to the international

markets, far earlier than anyone expected and that the international lenders had themselves recognised the continuous improvements and praised Cyprus on many occasions, while the international rating agencies have upgraded the economy and its outlook. “Despite the unnecessary delay in the conclusion of the fifth review of the economic adjustment programme due to the suspension of the application of the foreclosures law by the Parliament, we remain fully on track. We remain fully committed towards the implementation of the programme”, he said. Concerning the business environment, Anastasiades said that having maintained a stable and investment friendly tax regime, the

government was determined to proceed with the implementation of a series of bold structural reforms. He added that the government’s objective was to boost the country’s global competitiveness and to make Cyprus one of the best places to start and to grow a business. “To achieve this we have developed a comprehensive growth reform strategy which will curb bureaucracy and red tape, simplify procedures and regulation, and create a more enabling business and investment environment”, he said. “My government has notably placed foreign investments at the top of its agenda from day one and in that respect has greatly facilitated them through measures that include, among others, reducing the time needed to issue permits, simplifying administrative procedures, licensing and encouraging the timely completion of projects”, said Anastasiades. He noted that his government had embarked on an ambitious privatisation programme of state owned enterprises, to attract sound and sizeable foreign investments, while also allowing the organisations in question and their stakeholders to benefit in different ways.

Cyprus will stand by Greece at the Eurogroup Finance Minister Harris Georgiades told foreign investors on Tuesday that Cyprus will support Greece at the special Eurogroup meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. In statements at the Cyprus Investors Summit 2015 in Limassol, Georgiades said that Greece is in a difficult position and Cyprus will support “the necessity of creating a prospect.” No country should find itself both excluded from international markets and a bail-out programme, he added. We should prevent this eventuality through the Eurogroup meeting and Cyprus’ efforts will focus in that direction, Georgiades said. He also noted that the best way to rid Cyprus from the Troika of international lenders is restoring its access to the international markets “a goal which is absolutely within reach and feasible for Cyprus.” Commenting on privatisations Georgiades said “the government does not consider them largely as a revenue-raising tool, but rather as a very concrete and tangible reform which will attract foreign investments to our economy that we need.”

February 11 - 17, 2015

6 | COMMENT | financialmirror.com

Greece is playing to lose By Anatole Kaletsky The future of Europe now depends on something apparently impossible: Greece and Germany must strike a deal. What makes such a deal seem impossible is not the principled opposition of the two governments – Greece has demanded a debt reduction, while Germany has insisted that not a euro of debt can be written off – but something more fundamental: while Greece is obviously the weaker party in this conflict, it has far more at stake. Game theory suggests that some of the most unpredictable conflicts are between a weak, but determined, combatant and a strong opponent with much less commitment. In these scenarios, the most stable outcome tends to be a draw in which both sides are partly satisfied. In the Greek-German confrontation, it is easy, at least in theory, to design such a positive-sum game. All we must do is ignore political rhetoric and focus on the economic outcomes that the protagonists really want. Germany is determined to resist any debt write-offs. For German voters, this objective matters much more than the details of Greek structural reforms. Greece, for its part, is determined to gain relief from the punitive and counterproductive austerity imposed on it, at Germany’s insistence, by the “troika” (European Commission, ECB, IMF). For Greek voters, this objective matters much more than detailed calculations about the net present value of national debt in 30 years. A deal should be easily negotiable if both sides concentrate on their top priorities, while compromising on their secondary aims. Unfortunately, human fallibility seems to be working against such a rational solution. Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s new finance minister, is a professor of mathematical economics who specialises in game theory. But his negotiating technique – unpredictable oscillations between aggressiveness and weakness – is the opposite of what game theory would dictate. Varoufakis’s idea of strategy is to hold a gun to his own head, then demand a ransom for not pulling the trigger. German and European Union policymakers are calling his bluff. As a result, the two sides have become stuck in a passiveaggressive standoff that has made serious negotiation impossible. There was nothing inevitable about this outcome. Just last month, ECB President Mario Draghi provided a textbook example of how these negotiations could, and should, have

progressed, when he outmaneuvered German opposition to the monetary stimulus that Europe clearly needed. Draghi spent months before the ECB’s January 22 announcement that it would launch quantitative easing (QE) in intense public debate with the Germans over which point of principle they chose as a “red line” – the point beyond which no deal would be possible. Germany’s red line was debt mutualisation: there must be no sharing of losses if any eurozone country should default. Draghi let Germany win on this issue, which he viewed as economically irrelevant. But, crucially, he was careful not to back down until the last possible moment. By focusing the QE debate on risk-sharing, Draghi managed to distract Germany from an infinitely more important issue: the enormous size of the QE programme, which completely defied the German taboo against monetary financing of government debts. By conceding at the right time on an issue of no importance, Draghi achieved an enormous breakthrough that really mattered to the ECB. Had Varoufakis adopted an equivalent strategy for Greece, he would have stuck doggedly to his demand for debt cancellation until the last moment, then backed down on this “principle” in exchange for major concessions on austerity and structural reforms. Or he could have adopted a less aggressive strategy: concede from the start the German principle that debts are sacrosanct and then show that austerity could be eased without any reduction in the face value of Greek debt. Instead of consistently pursuing either strategy, Varoufakis veered between defiance and conciliation, losing credibility both ways. Greece started the negotiation by insisting on debt reduction as its red line. But, instead of sticking to this position and turning a debate over debt forgiveness into a Draghi-style diversionary tactic, Greece abandoned this demand within days. Then came the pointless provocation of refusing talks with the troika, despite the fact that the three institutions are all much more sympathetic to Greek demands than the German government. Finally, Varoufakis rejected any extension of the troika programme. This created an unnecessary new deadline of February 28 for the withdrawal of ECB funding and consequent collapse of the Greek banking system. Greece’s idealistic new leaders seem to believe that they can overpower bureaucratic opposition without the usual compromises and obfuscations, simply by brandishing their democratic mandate. But the primacy of bureaucracy over democracy is a core principle that EU institutions will never compromise. The upshot is that Greece is back where it started in the poker contest with Germany and Europe. The new government has shown its best cards too early and has no credibility left if it wants to try bluffing.

So what will happen next? The most likely outcome is that Syriza will soon admit defeat, like every other eurozone government supposedly elected on a reform mandate, and revert to a troika-style programme, sweetened only by dropping the name “troika.” Another possibility, while Greek banks are still open for business, might be for the government to unilaterally implement some of its radical plans on wages and public spending, defying protests from Brussels, Frankfurt, and Berlin. If Greece tries such unilateral defiance, the ECB will almost certainly vote to stop its emergency funding to the Greek banking system after the troika programme expires on February 28. As this self-inflicted deadline approaches, the Greek government will probably back down, just as Ireland and Cyprus capitulated when faced with similar threats. Such last-minute capitulation could mean resignation for the new Greek government and its replacement by EUapproved technocrats, as in the constitutional putsch against Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi in 2012. In a less extreme scenario, Varoufakis might be replaced as finance minister, while the rest of the government survives. The only other possibility, if and when Greek banks start collapsing, would be an exit from the euro. Whatever form the surrender takes, Greece will not be the only loser. Proponents of democracy and economic expansion have missed their best chance to outmaneuver Germany and end the self-destructive austerity that Germany has imposed on Europe. Anatole Kaletsky is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking and the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

Moody’s worried over uncertainty in Greece Moody’s Investors Service placed Greece’s Caa1 government bond rating on review for downgrade on Friday due to “the high level of uncertainty over the outcome of the negotiations with its creditors over the terms of Greece’s support programmer” which expires at the end of February. The rating agency said that “the outcome could potentially have negative implications for Greece’s ability to meet its funding and liquidity needs and for the probability of default on marketable securities,” adding, however, that the rating applies to marketable securities only. Moody’s said its review will assess the likely outcome of the negotiations recently initiated between the newly-elected government and the euro area authorities – the European Commission and European Central Bank. In particular, it will assess the government’s ability to secure its medium term financing capability through an extension or amendment to its current support programme with the EC, which would likely also allow Greek banks to maintain access to ECB financing facilities. In Moody’s view, “there is considerable uncertainty regarding the outcome of the ensuing negotiations, and the ability of the two sides to reach an agreement which secures Greece’s financing position.” The rating agency noted that Greek government has been vocal about its political mandate to roll back austerity measures, reduce primary budget surplus targets and negotiate a debt reduction agreement with its creditors. However, other euro area governments are likely to resist such demands given their policy stance in recent years and because further debt

relief could undermine debt consolidation efforts elsewhere in the euro area. Moody’s said that delays to official-sector disbursements of EUR 7.2 bln that were due last year have exacerbated Greece’s liquidity and funding challenges. In 2015, Greece has to repay EUR 16 bln in long-term debt, roll over outstanding T-bills of EUR 14.6 bln and make EUR 4 bln in interest payments to private and official creditors. The first large repayment of EUR 3.5 bln is due on July 20, followed by another repayment for EUR 3.2 bln on August 20, both for marketable securities held by the ECB. The first half of the year also requires the government to roll over EUR 11.6 bln of T-bills, and Moody’s sees ECB support for the Greek banking sector as a key determinant of its ability to achieve the rollover. On Monday, Moody’s downgraded by one notch the longterm deposit and senior debt ratings of Piraeus Bank (to Caa2 from Caa1), National Bank of Greece (to Caa2 from Caa1), Alpha Bank (to Caa2 from Caa1), Eurobank Ergasias (to Caa3 from Caa2) and Attica Bank (to Caa3 from Caa2). All ratings were placed on review for further downgrade. The rating agency said its downgrades were driven by Moody’s view of a reduced likelihood of systemic support given the heightened uncertainty about the government’s ability to come to an agreement with official creditors in time to meet its own liquidity and funding needs, and the likely reduction in the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund’s (HFSF) capacity to support the banks in case of need. Moody’s considers that there is a material risk that the bulk of the HFSF’s reserves of EUR 11.5 bln could be either used to

finance government needs or returned back to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), reducing the capacity of the HFSF to support the banks if needed. As a result, Greek banks’ dependence on Eurosystem funding, both in the form of ECB funding and higher cost emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) from the Bank of Greece, has increased significantly. According to the Bank of Greece, ECB funding for the system increased to EUR 56 bln as of end-December 2014, from 45 bln in November. Moody’s expects this balance to have increased to EUR 75 bln in January 2015. The rating agency also placed on review for downgrade the Ba3 corporate family rating (CFR) and the Ba3-PD probability of default rating (PDR) of Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation S.A. (OTE). Concurrently, it placed on review for downgrade the provisional (P)Ba3 senior unsecured ratings of the global medium-term note programme (GMTN) and the Ba3 rating of the global bonds issued by subsidiary OTE Plc (OTE’s fully and unconditionally guaranteed subsidiary). “While OTE has taken steps to insulate itself from the Greek economy, the company is predominantly a Greek business with 70% of its revenues generated in Greece,” said Carlos Winzer, a lead analyst for OTE. “As such, its ratings remain closely linked to conditions in its domestic environment. The government bond rating exerts pressure on OTE’s rating.” On Thursday, DBRS Inc. placed the Hellenic Republic’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings of B and short-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings of R-4 “under review with negative implications”.

February 11 - 17, 2015

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 7

Obama joins the Greek chorus By Ashoka Mody US President Barack Obama’s recent call to ease the austerity imposed on Greece is remarkable – and not only for his endorsement of the newly elected Greek government’s negotiating position in the face of its official creditors. Obama’s comments represent a break with the longstanding tradition of official American silence on European monetary affairs. While scholars in the United States have frequently denounced the policies of Europe’s monetary union, their government has looked the other way. Those who criticise the euro or how it is managed have long run the risk of being dismissed as Anglo-Saxons or, worse, antiEuropeans. British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher accurately foresaw the folly of a European monetary union. Gordon Brown, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, followed in her footsteps. When his staff presented carefully researched reasons for not joining the euro, many Europeans sneered. And that is why Obama’s statement was such a breath of fresh air. It came a day after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Greece should not expect more debt relief and must maintain austerity. Meanwhile, after days of not-so-veiled threats, the European Central Bank is on the verge of cutting funding to Greek banks. The guardians of financial stability are amplifying a destabilising bank run. Obama’s breach of Europe’s intellectual insularity is all the more remarkable because even the International Monetary Fund has acquiesced in German-imposed orthodoxy. As IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde

told the Irish Times: “A debt is a debt, and it is a contract. Defaulting, restructuring, changing the terms has consequences.” The Fund stood by in the 1990s when the eurozone misadventure was concocted. In 2002, the director of the IMF’s European Department described the fiscal rules that institutionalised the culture of persistent austerity as a “sound framework.” And, in May 2010, the IMF endorsed the European authorities’ decision not to impose losses on Greece’s private creditors – a move that was reversed only after unprecedented fiscal belttightening sent the Greek economy into a tailspin. The delays and errors in managing the Greek crisis started early. In July 2010, Lagarde, who was France’s finance minister at the time, recognised the damage incurred by those initial delays, “If we had been able to address [Greece’s debt] right from the start, say in February, I think we would have been able to prevent it from snowballing the way that it did.” Even the IMF acknowledged that it had been a mistake not to impose losses on private creditors preemptively; it finally did so only in June 2013, when the damage had already been done. There is plenty of blame to go around. Former US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner championed a hardline stance against debt restructuring during a crisis. As a result, despite warnings by several IMF Directors in May 2010 that restructuring was inevitable, the US supported the European position that private creditors needed to be paid in full. Lee Buchheit, a leading sovereign-debt attorney and the man who managed the eventual Greek debt restructuring in 2012, was harshly critical of the authorities’ failure to face up to reality. As he put it, “I find it hard to imagine they will now man up to the proposition that they delayed – at appalling cost to Greece, its creditors, and its officialsector sponsors – an essential debt

restructuring.” Obama may have arrived late to the right conclusion, but he expressed what should be an obvious truth: “You cannot keep on squeezing countries that are in the midst of depression.” If Obama’s words are to count, he must continue to push for the kind of deal Greece needs – one that errs on the side of too much debt forgiveness, rather than too little. Recent analysis shows that forgiveness of Greece’s official debt is unambiguously desirable, as another bogus deal will keep the Greek economy depressed, ensuring that the problem soon recurs. If European sensitivities must be assuaged, Greece’s debt repayment could be drawn out over 100 years. At the end of the day, debt forgiveness benefits creditors as much as it helps

debtors. Creditors have known this since at least the sixteenth century, when Spain’s King Philip II became the world’s first known serial sovereign defaulter. As Jesus put it, “It is more blessed to give than to receive.” European authorities must come to understand that the next act of the Greek tragedy will not be confined to Greece. If relief fails to materialise, political discontent will spread, extremist forces will gain strength, and the survival of the European Union itself could be endangered. Ashoka Mody, a former mission chief for Germany and Ireland at the IMF, is currently Visiting Professor of International Economic Policy at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

The bold but rational policy approach of Greece The international media is justified in being preoccupied to their structural economic problems and distortions. But it with the policy decision of the new Greek government to underlines that the recipes of the Troika and the philosophy challenge the legitimacy of the Troika of international lenders of Germany exacerbate the problems instead of resolving and its economic philosophy. Regardless of the result of the them effectively. In other words the Troika’s fixes have failed. emergency Eurogroup meeting on Wednesday, ahead of the The Greek government clearly prefers to find a commonly European Council, it would be impossible for the Greek accepted formula within the Eurozone. This may entail government to adhere to the continued implementation of relaxation of the provisions of the memorandum and specific the austerity policies dictated initiatives for a return to by the Troika. Over the last growth so that the country five years, Greece’s GDP can begin to repay its shrank by more than 25%, obligations. Greece has unemployment rose to 30% revealed its By Andreas Theophanous simultaneously while among young people it plans for the restructuring of is nearly 60%, and the its debt. For the demographic outflow has implementation of such a taken alarming proportions policy, the support of the EU as the public debt increased from 125% to almost 180%. institutions is required. Questioning the Troika and the philosophy of austerity by Furthermore, in addition to the monetary easing the Tsipras government, despite Germany’s reaction, clearly announced by the European Central Bank on January 22, finds support at various levels in the EU and beyond. Even there are already voices in the EU in favour of a fiscal US President Obama – whose country just added 257,000 expansionary policy as well. However, in case the European new jobs in January 2015 – emphasised that the current Central Bank goes ahead with its intention to refuse to accept situation and the treatment of Greece cannot continue. The Greek bonds, this would constitute a blatant act of blackmail message is clear: Germany cannot insist on pushing Greece as well as discrimination. Persistence in such an option and other countries into austerity policies and a vicious circle would eventually lead the Eurozone itself into increased of recessions. tensions and push Greece to opt for the irreversible. Indeed, The reality is that the German dogmatism and its it is essential that Greece is not forced to default and return hegemonic attitude have plunged Europe into deep trouble. to its own national currency. The stance of the new Greek government is not only brave The heart of the matter is that, if Germany continues to but also rational. This approach in no way condones the remain inflexible and dogmatic, the Greek government will inherent responsibilities of the specific countries in relation obviously be pushed towards the inevitable. Succumbing to

and following the Troika’s recipes will bring unforeseen adverse effects for the country. This will entail economic collapse, default and return to its national currency. Such a development, though, will bring a chain of reactions beyond Greece. It should be understood that Greece is not blackmailing. Instead, it has reached the limits of poverty and humiliation. Consequently, the rational option is to change the policy fundamentals not only for Greece but for South Europe and the entire Eurozone as well. In this regard Greece has also called for a New Deal for the Eurozone as a whole. This may include the financing of large scale projects by the European Investment Bank. Developments in Greece will affect the entire European project. In this sense, Greece is leading the debate for a new Europe. Closer to home, Cyprus should also assess these developments and respond accordingly. Should the Cypriot government continue the dogmatic adherence to the philosophy of the Troika, it will find itself in the same predicament of Greece possibly in less than two years. It must be understood by the Minister of Finance and the Central Bank Governor that credibility does not mean a blind following of a dictated road map if that road map contradicts rationality. Even at this late stage, President Anastasiades should also act in a way that will salvage his tarnished credibility and dignity as head of state and give the Cypriot people a meaningful prospect, confidence and above all, tangible results. Andreas Theophanous is Professor of Political Economy and President of the Centre for European and International Affairs of the University of Nicosi

February 11 - 17, 2015

8 | NEWS | financialmirror.com

Property price drop slows in Q4 Property prices continued to fall in the last quarter of 2014, at a somewhat slower pace than in the third quarter, according to data provided in the RICS Cyprus Property Price Index. The 21st quarterly price and rental index, developed in cooperation with the University of Reading, found that average market prices fell by 5.4% for flats, 5% for houses, 8.1% for retail, 6.1% for offices and 5.3% for warehouses, compared to the fourth quarter of 2013. In the previous quarter, the RICS Cyprus survey had seen average prices drop by 6.3% for flats, 4.4% for houses, 9.6% for retail, 6.3% for office, and 4.2% for warehouses. Justifying the slowdown in the price fall, the survey recognised that in the fourth quarter of 2014 the economy had shown some signs of stability, with a better-thanexpected performance and tourism mildly outperforming forecasts. But unemployment remained at a historical high level, and had stabilised at 16-17%. “Given the prevailing economic conditions and the turbulence in the banking system, there were few transactions in the quarter although volume was higher on a year-on-year basis. Local buyers in particular were the most discerning as the increase in unemployment and the prospects of the local economy maintained the lack of interest. Furthermore, those interested were unable to access bank-finance.” The RICS Cyprus Property Price Index recorded falls in almost all towns and asset classes, with significant drops in Nicosia which “is clearly feeling the impact on the government and banking sector that traditionally dominate the employment

market, whilst other towns are progressively bottoming out.” Across Cyprus, residential prices for both houses and flats fell by 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively, with the biggest drop being in Famagusta (3.6% for houses) and Nicosia (1.1% for flats). Values of retail properties fell by an average 1.6%, offices by 1.2%, and warehouses by 1.9%. Compared to Q4 2013, prices dropped by 5.4% for flats, 5.0% for houses, 8.1% for retail, 6.1% for office, and 5.3% for warehouses. On a quarterly basis rental values decreased by 1.3% for apartments, 0.2% for houses, 0.4% for retail units and 0.9% for warehouses; office rents increased marginally by 0.2%. Compared to Q4 2013, rents dropped by 5.0% for flats, 3.1% for houses, 8.9% for retail, 8.8% for warehouses, and 2.9% for offices. “The majority of asset classes and geographies continue to be affected, with areas that had dropped the most early on in the property cycle now nearing or at the trough, e.g Paphos and Larnaca are showing some signs of price stability,” the RICS report said. At the end of Q4 2014, average gross yields stood at 3.8% for apartments, 2.0% for houses, 5.3% for retail, 4.3% for warehouses, and 4.4% for offices. “The parallel reduction in capital values and rents is keeping investment yields relatively stable and at low levels (compared to yields overseas). This suggests that there is still room for some re-pricing of capital values to take place, especially for properties in secondary locations,” the study said.

Milano da Bere is back with Carnevale di Venezia The after-work Milano da Bere parties organised by the Haze Team are back next week with the theme being the Carnevale Di Venezia. The event will be held at the Patio Cocktail Bar in Nicosia, starting from 6.30pm on Thursday, February 19, with the buffet closing at 8.30pm followed by all-night partying driven by resident DJ Andrew P. The main sponsor is Chivas, distributed by LaikoCosmos Trading and is supported by the Financial Mirror and MediaPro. Inspired by the world-famous Carnival of Venice famed for its elaborate masks, the hosts will encourage guests to dress accordingly, or don one of the many elaborate masks that will be available. The annual Carnival of Venice dates back to the mid-12th century to mark the victory of the “Serenissima Repubblica” against the Patriarch of Aquileia, Ulrico di Treven. In the honor of this victory, the people started to dance and make reunions in San Marco Square, while the festival became official in the Renaissance. By the 17th century, the baroque carnival was a way to save the prestigious image of Venice in the world, but by 1797, under the rule of the King of Austria, the festival was outlawed entirely and the use of masks became strictly forbidden. It reappeared gradually in the 19th century, where it became an occasion for artistic creations. After a long absence, the Carnival returned to its full glamour in 1979 when the Italian government decided to revive the history and culture of Venice, and sought to use the traditional Carnival as the

centrepiece of its efforts. The redevelopment of the masks began as the pursuit of some Venetian college students for the tourist trade. Today, some 3 mln visitors go to Venice every year for the Carnival where one of the most important events is the contest for la maschera piu bella (“the most beautiful mask”) placed at the last weekend of the Carnival and judged by a panel of international costume and fashion designers and based on several distinct styles of mask: The Bauta is designed to cover the entire face, with an over-prominent nose, a projecting “chin line”, and no mouth,

accompanied by a red or black cape and a tricorn. The Columbina is a half-mask, only covering the wearer’s eyes, nose, and upper cheeks, decorated with gold, silver, crystals and feathers, held up to the face by a baton or tied with ribbon as with most other Venetian masks. The Medico della peste, with its long beak, is one of the most bizarre Venetian masks, though it did not start out as a carnival mask at all, but as a method of preventing the spread of disease in the 17th century, worn with a black hat and long black cloak, white gloves and a stick. The Moretta (meaning dark one lady) or Servetta muta (meaning mute servant woman) was a small strapless black velvet oval mask with wide eyeholes and no lips or mouth worn by patrician women and sometimes finished off with a veil. The Volto (Italian for face) or Larva (meaning ghost in Latin) is the iconic modern Venetian mask: it is often stark white, frequently gilded and decorated, and is commonly worn with a tricorn and cloak. It is secured in the back with a ribbon. Venetian masks featured prominently in the film Eyes Wide Shut, the 2009 video game Assassin’s Creed II and the 2005 video game Sly 3: Honor Among Thieves. The first episode of the game is set during Carnivale, and large enemies wear masks. For information call the maitre of the Haze Team, Andreas Christodoulides, on 99 306254 / 99 092932 or visit www.hazeteam.com

EB¢OMA¢IAIA OIKONOMIKH ¶√§π∆π∫∏ EºHMEPI¢A

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T∂∆∞ƒ∆∏, 11 º∂µƒ√À∞ƒπ√À, 2015

æ¿¯ÓÔ˘Ó Ó· ‚ÚÔ˘Ó ÙË Ï›ÛÙ· §·ÁÎ¿ÚÓÙ Το θέµα µε τισ καταθέσεισ Κυπρίων σε τράπεζεσ τησ Ελβετίασ που φαίνεται να προκύπτει µετά τη διαρροή καταλÞγου καταθετών του παραρτήµατοσ τησ HSBC στην Ελβετία εξέτασε χθεσ η Κοινοβουλευτική Επιτροπή Θεσµών, µε την Επιτροπή να αποφασίζει Þπωσ ζητήσει απÞ το Υπουργείο Οικονοµικών να εξασφαλίσει αυτή τη λίστα «γνωστή ωσ λίστα Λαγκάρντ» και να την καταθέσει στη Βουλή. Στη Λίστα Λανγκάρντ περιέχονται, σύµφωνα µε πληροφορίεσ, τα ονÞµατα 350 ελληνοκυπρίων ή ατÞµων µε κυπριακή καταγωγή, ή ξένων που δραστηριοποιούνται στην Κύπρο και θεωρούνται ύποπτοι για φοροδιαφυγή. Οι τραπεζικοί λογαριασµοί των 350, που ανέρχονται στουσ 553, συνολικά, ανοίχτηκαν απÞ το 1969 µέχρι το 2006. Ο πρÞεδροσ τησ Επιτροπήσ Θεσµών ∆ηµήτρησ Συλλούρησ, προανήγγειλε Þτι η Επιτροπή θα διαβίβαζε επιστολή προσ τον υπουργÞ Οικονοµικών, για να ζητήσει επισήµωσ την κατάθεση τησ Λίστασ Λανγκάρντ στη Βουλή. Η Επιτροπή Θεσµών θα ζητήσει, επίσησ, στοιχεία απÞ το Τµήµα Εσωτερικών ΠροσÞδων για τισ εκροέσ καταθέσεων. ΑπÞ πλευράσ Υπουργείου Οικονοµικών ο αρµÞδιοσ υπουργÞσ Χάρησ Γεωργιάδησ ζήτησε απÞ τον Έφορο Φορολογίασ να διερευνήσει το θέµα τησ Λίστασ Λαγκάρντ και ειδικÞτερα την πιθανÞτητα φοροδιαφυγήσ µέσω ελβετικών τραπεζών. Προχωρώντασ πάρα πέρα το υπουργείο οικονοµικών εξέδωσε ανακοίνωση εξ αφορµήσ του θέµατοσ που έχει προκύψει µε τη λίστα Λαγκάρντ και στην οποία προβάλλο-

νται ισχυρισµοί πωσ στην εν λÞγω λίστα περιλαµβάνονται και κύπριοι. Στην ανακοίνωση αναφέρεται: «σε σχέση µε διάφορουσ καταλÞγουσ για τουσ οποίουσ κατά καιρούσ έχει γίνει αναφορά, δεν υπάρχουν συγκεκριµένεσ πληροφορίεσ για την εγκυρÞτητά ή τον τρÞπο απÞκτησησ τουσ». «ΠαρÞλα αυτά, νεώτερεσ πληροφορίεσ σχετικά µε τέτοιουσ καταλÞγουσ θα διερευνηθούν µε προοπτική την απÞκτησησ τουσ». Το υπουργείο οικονοµικών εξηγεί επίσησ πωσ το τµήµα φορολογίασ είναι πλήρωσ εναρµονισµένο µε την ευρωπαϊκή οδηγία Αποταµιεύσεων, και ανταλλάσσει πληροφÞρηση µε άλλα κράτη µέσω µιασ θεσµοθετηµένησ διαδικασίασ, σύµφωνα µε τισ πρÞνοιεσ τησ εν λÞγω Οδηγίασ. «Σύµφωνα µε το άρθρο 11 τησ οδηγίασ, συγκεκριµένοσ αριθµÞσ χωρών, συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ και τησ Ελβετίασ, προβαίνει στην παρακράτηση φÞρου απÞ τουσ τÞκουσ των αποταµιεύσεων κατοίκων Κύπρου και αποστέλλει το ανάλογο χρηµατικÞ ποσÞ µε έµβασµα στην Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Κύπρου» αναφέρει η ανακοίνωση. «Τα υπÞλοιπα κράτη µέλη που εφαρµÞζουν την οδηγία αποταµιεύσεων, είναι υποχρεωµένα να αποστέλλουν στο τµήµα φορολογίασ αναλυτική πληροφÞρηση σχετικά µε το εισÞδηµα απÞ τÞκουσ κατοίκων Κύπρου. Τα στοιχεία ταυτοποίησησ που αποστέλλονται περιλαµβάνουν το ονοµατεπώνυµο, την ηµεροµηνία γέννησησ και τη διεύθυνση του καταθέτη». Στην ανακοίνωση επισηµαίνεται πωσ «παρÞλο Þτι η διατήρηση τραπεζικού λογα-

ριασµού στο εξωτερικÞ δεν είναι παράνοµη, η εν λÞγω πληροφÞρηση τυγχάνει ενδελεχούσ ανάλυσησ και επεξεργασίασ και συχνά καταλήγει στην έκδοση φορολογιών, Þταν το ποσÞ που παρουσιάζεται στον τραπεζικÞ λογαριασµÞ δεν είναι φορολογικά δικαιολογηµένο. Η ίδια διαδικασία ακολουθείται και για κατÞχουσ τραπεζικών λογαριασµών

εντÞσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ». Επιπλέον, προστίθεται Þτι το τµήµα φορολογίασ διατηρεί συµβάσεισ αποφυγήσ διπλήσ φορολογίασ µε περίπου 50 χώρεσ και µπορεί ανά πάσα στιγµή να ζητήσει και να παραλάβει πληροφÞρηση απÞ κάθε µια απÞ αυτέσ τισ χώρεσ για Κύπριουσ Φορολογούµενουσ.

™fiÈÌÏÂ: ÃˆÚ›˜ ÚfiÁÚ·ÌÌ·, ÙÂÏÂÈÒÓÔ˘Ó fiÏ· ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏ¿‰· æ¿¯ÓÔ˘Ó ÁÈ· ÂÓ‰È¿ÌÂÛË Ï‡ÛË ÛÙÔ ¤ÎÙ·ÎÙÔ Eurogroup Κορυφώνεται η αγωνία για το σηµερινÞ έκτακτο Eurogroup Þπου η Ελλάδα αναµένεται να παρουσιάσει τισ προτάσεισ τησ για την επέκταση του προγράµµατοσ οικονοµικήσ προσαρµογήσ ενώ στÞχοσ είναι η συµφωνία ΕλλάδασΚοµισιÞν να κλείσει µέχρι τισ 16 Φεβρουαρίου. ΣτÞχοσ είναι να επιτευχθεί µεταβατική συµφωνία µέχρι το προγραµµατισµένο Eurogroup τησ ερχÞµενησ ∆ευτέρασ. ΑυτÞ θα δώσει χρÞνο για οποιαδήποτε επικύρωση απαιτείται απÞ τα εθνικά κοινοβούλια προτού λήξει το πρÞγραµµα στήριξησ στισ 28 Φεβρουαρίου. ΩστÞσο ευρωπαίοι αξιωµατούχοι θεωρούν πωσ οι προσδοκίεσ για συµφωνία αυτή την εβδοµάδα είναι λίγεσ. Πάντωσ ο ΒÞλφγκανγκ ΣÞιµπλε στο γνώριµο ύφοσ του διαµήνυσε αργά χθεσ απÞ την Κωνσταντινούπολη πωσ «Εάν η Ελλάδα δεν θέλει νέο πρÞγραµµα τÞτε, Þλα τελείωσαν». Ο ΓερµανÞσ υπουργÞσ Οικονοµικών χαρακτήρισε «λάθοσ» και αβάσιµεσ τισ πληροφορίεσ που είχαν διαρρεύσει νωρίτερα χθεσ περί συµβιβαστικήσ συµφωνίασ ανάµεσα στην Ελλάδα και την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή. Η Ελλάδα στο σηµερινÞ έκτακτο Eurogroup αναµένεται να ζητήσει ένα πρÞγραµµα χρηµατοδÞτησησ που µπορεί να τρέξει µέχρι τον Αύγουστο και περιλαµβάνει µέροσ των 7,2 δισ ευρώ απÞ τισ εκκρεµείσ πληρωµέσ προσ την Ελλάδα. Σε αντάλλαγµα, η Ελλάδα θα δεσµευτεί για την εφαρµογή του 70% του υφιστάµενου προγράµµατοσ διάσωσησ. Σύµφωνα µε δηµοσιεύµατα, η ελληνική κυβέρνηση θα προτείνει πρÞταση 5 πυλώνων, η οποία θα περιλαµβάνει πρÞγραµµα γέφυρασ µέχρι τον Σεπτέµβριο του 2015 στο οποίο θα περιληφθεί το 70% των µέτρων του προηγούµενου προγράµµατοσ. Το 30% των µέτρων είτε θα διαγραφεί είτε θα αντικα-

τασταθεί µε 10 νέα µέτρα και µεταρρυθµίσεισ σε συνεργασία µε τον ΟΟΣΑ. Η πρÞταση θα περιλαµβάνει επίσησ εκτίµηση για πρωτογενέσ πλεÞνασµα 1,5% και αντιµετώπιση του χρέουσ µέσω swaps. ΑκÞµη, τα 11 δισ ευρώ που κατέχει το ΕλληνικÞ Ταµείο Χρηµατοπιστωτικήσ ΣταθερÞτητασ θα χρησιµοποιηθούν για την αντιµετώπιση των µη εξυπηρετούµενων δανείων ενώ στο ενδιάµεσο διάστηµα οι χρηµατοδοτικέσ ανάγκεσ τησ χώρασ µπορούν να καλυφθούν και απÞ την εκταµίευση µέρουσ τησ δÞσησ των 7,2 δισ ευρώ. Επίσησ, η κυβέρνηση εµµένει στην άµεση εκταµίευση του ποσού του 1,9 δισ ευρώ απÞ τα κέρδη των «ακούρευτων» ελληνικών οµολÞγων που κατέχει η ΕΚΤ, την αύξηση του ορίου για την έκδοση εντÞκων γραµµατίων κατά 8 δισ ευρώ καθώσ και το να είναι «ελαστικÞσ» ο ELA, ανάλογα µε τισ ανάγκεσ. Σε δηλώσεισ του στο περιθώριο τησ ΣυνÞδου τησ G20, o κ. ΣÞιµπλε τÞνισε Þτι η ευρωζώνη δεν πρÞκειται να διαπραγµατευθεί ένα νέο πρÞγραµµα για την Ελλάδα στην σηµερινή συνεδρίαση του Eurogroup. «Έχουµε ήδη ένα σχέδιο για την Ελλάδα» κατέληξε ο ΓερµανÞσ αξιωµατούχοσ. Είπε ακÞµη Þτι «ποτέ κανένασ δεν ανάγκασε την Ελλάδα να µπει σε πρÞγραµµα. Και κανείσ εκτÞσ Ελλάδασ δεν πρέπει να κατηγορείται για τα προβλήµατα τησ χώρασ». «Θέλουµε να ακούσουµε κάτι δεσµευτικÞ απÞ την Ελλάδα σήµερα Τετάρτη. Εάν η Ελλάδα δεν θέλει ένα νέο πρÞγραµµα, τÞτε Þλα τελειώνουν», ανέφερε χαρακτηριστικά ο κ. ΣÞιµπλε. Το τρέχον πρÞγραµµα «πρέπει να αποτελέσει το αντικείµενο µιασ αξιολÞγησησ απÞ την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, την Ευρωπαϊκή Κεντρική Τράπεζα και το ∆ιεθνέσ ΝοµισµατικÞ Ταµείο. ΜÞνο έτσι µπορούµε να εκταµιεύσουµε την επÞµενη

δÞση», επανέλαβε ο ΣÞιµπλε και πρÞσθεσε Þτι άλλεσ συζητήσεισ δεν µπορούν να γίνουν παρά µÞνο αφού αυτή η αξιολÞγηση θα έχει ολοκληρωθεί. «Θεωρώ Þτι οι κανÞνεσ είναι λίγο πιο σαφείσ» για την Αθήνα, συνέχισε ο ΣÞιµπλε. «Αύριο θα ακούσουµε τισ δεσµεύσεισ τουσ, αυτÞ είναι καλύτερο απÞ τισ πληροφορίεσ που µεταδίδονται απÞ την τηλεÞραση», πρÞσθεσε. ΑπÞ την πλευρά του ο επικεφαλήσ τησ Bundesbank και µέλοσ του εκτελεστικού συµβουλίου τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ, Γενσ Βάιντµαν, δήλωσε πωσ η Ελλάδα χρειάζεται να καταβάλει µία αξιÞπιστη προσπάθεια για να σταθεί και πάλι στα πÞδια τησ µέσω στέρεων δηµÞσιων οικονοµικών και µίασ πιο ανταγωνιστικήσ οικονοµίασ. Σε κάθε προσπάθεια τÞνισε Þτι οι µεταρρυθµίσεισ θα πρέπει να συνεχιστούν, υπογραµµίζοντασ Þτι Þποια ενδεχÞµενη συµφωνία θα συνοδεύεται απÞ αυστηρούσ Þρουσ που η Αθήνα θα πρέπει να τηρήσει.

¡¤· ÚÔÂÈ‰ÔÔ›ËÛË ·fi Fitch Εν τω µεταξύ η Fitch Ratings αργά ψεσ ανακοίνωσε πωσ θέτει την πιστοληπτική αξιολÞγηση «B-» των Εθνική Τράπεζα, Τράπεζα Πειραιώσ, Alpha Bank και Eurobank Ergasias υπÞ παρακολούθηση µε αρνητικέσ προοπτικέσ (Rating Watch Negative - RWN). Στην πράξη, το RWN αντανακλά την καθοδική δυναµική στην αξιολÞγηση λÞγω των αυξανÞµενων κινδύνων στη χρηµατοδÞτηση και τη ρευστÞτητα, καθώσ η Fitch υποθέτει Þτι οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ τησ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ µε τουσ επίσηµουσ πιστωτέσ θα είναι πολύ δύσκολεσ, αναφέρει ο οίκοσ στην ανάλυση του.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

2 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

AÓ·¯ˆÚÂ› ÁÈ· µÚ˘Í¤ÏÏÂ˜ Ô ÚfiÂ‰ÚÔ˜ ∞Ó·ÛÙ·ÛÈ¿‰Ë˜ Ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ Νίκοσ Αναστασιάδησ αναχωρεί σήµερα, 11 Φεβρουαρίου, για τισ Βρυξέλλεσ, Þπου αύριο θα συµµετάσχει στισ εργασίεσ τησ ΣυνÞδου Κορυφήσ του Ευρωπαϊκού Συµβουλίου. Αντικείµενο τησ ΣυνÞδου θα είναι η Οικονοµική και Νοµισµατική Ένωση, η κατάσταση στην Ουκρανία, θέµατα καταπολέµησησ τησ τροµοκρατίασ, καθώσ και η οικονοµική κατάσταση στην Ελλάδα.

Στο περιθώριο τησ ΣυνÞδου, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ θα έχει επαφέσ µε τουσ επικεφαλήσ των θεσµικών οργάνων τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Ένωσησ, καθώσ και µε ηγέτεσ χωρών µελών τησ ΕΕ. Τον ΠρÞεδρο τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ θα συνοδεύει στισ Βρυξέλλεσ ο ΚυβερνητικÞσ ΕκπρÞσωποσ Νίκοσ Χριστοδουλίδησ. Ο ΠρÞεδροσ Αναστασιάδησ θα επιστρέψει στην Κύπρο στισ 13 Φεβρουαρίου.

∂Ó‰È·Ê¤ÚÔ˘ÛÂ˜ ÂÂÓ‰˘ÙÈÎ¤˜ ÚÔÙ¿ÛÂÈ˜ ·fi Í¤ÓÔ˘˜ Για ενδιαφέρουσεσ επενδυτικέσ προτάσεισ µίλησε ο ΠρÞεδροσ του Κυπριακού Οργανισµού Προώθησησ Επενδύσεων (CIPA), ΧριστÞδουλοσ Αγκαστινιώτησ στα πλαίσια τησ συνÞδου CYPRUS INVESTORS SUMMIT 2015 που διοργανώθηκε στη ΛεµεσÞ. «ΠρÞκειται για µία πολύ σηµαντική Σύνοδο. Χρονικά συµπίπτει µε την πλήρη σταθεροποίηση και τη σταδιακή επανάκτηση τησ αξιοπιστίασ τησ κυπριακήσ οικονοµίασ. Καλωσορίζουµε τουσ ξένουσ επενδυτέσ και είµαστε στη

διάθεσή τουσ για να τουσ προσφέρουµε την καλύτερη δυνατή υποστήριξη και εξυπηρέτηση» αναφέρει ο κ. Αγκαστινιώτησ. Η Σύνοδοσ θα βοηθήσει ουσιαστικά στην προώθηση των µεγάλων αναπτυξιακών έργων σε ενδιαφερÞµενουσ επενδυτέσ. Συγκεκριµένα, 18 µεγάλα αναπτυξιακά έργα του ιδιωτικού τοµέα, θα παρουσιαστούν σε ηγετικά στελέχη 40 περίπου επενδυτικών ταµείων, Þπωσ αναφέρεται σε γραπτή ανακοίνωση. «Αποστολή του CIPA είναι η προώθηση τησ Κύπρου ωσ ελκυστικού επενδυτικού προορισµού και η διοργάνωση

αυτήσ τησ ΣυνÞδου συµβάλλει ουσιαστικά προσ αυτή την κατεύθυνση, αφού φέρνει σε απευθείασ επαφή Κύπριουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ µε διεθνούσ εµβέλειασ θεσµικούσ επενδυτέσ. ΕυχÞµαστε να υπάρξουν θετικέσ εξελίξεισ και το ενδιαφέρον των επενδυτών να µετουσιωθεί σε πράξη. Επιµένουµε Þτι η προσέλκυση ξένων επενδύσεων αποτελεί βασικÞ πυλώνα στην κοινή προσπάθεια για επιστροφή τησ Κύπρου σε αναπτυξιακή τροχιά και σηµαντικÞ συντελεστή για το επιχειρηµατικÞ περιβάλλον και την απασχÞληση», τονίζεται στην ανακοίνωση του κ. Αγκαστινιώτη.

•ÂÎÈÓ¿ ÙËÓ ÂÚ¯fiÌÂÓË ‚‰ÔÌ¿‰· Ë Û˘˙‹ÙËÛË ÁÈ· Î·˙›ÓÔ Την επÞµενη εβδοµάδα αναµένεται να ξεκινήσει η κατ’ άρθρον συζήτηση του νοµοσχεδίου που θα ρυθµίζει τη λειτουργία και τον έλεγχο του καζίνο. Χθεσ το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου κατά την κοινή συνεδρία των επιτροπών οικονοµικών και εµπορίου έδωσε κάποιεσ απαντήσεισ στουσ προβληµατισµούσ των κοµµάτων αναφορικά µε τη δηµιουργία καζίνο στην Κύπρο. Ο βουλευτήσ του ∆ΗΚΟ Άγγελοσ ΒÞτσησ δήλωσε Þτι ξεκίνησε η ουσιαστική συζήτηση του νοµοσχεδίου για το καζίνο και Þτι γίνεται µια «πολύ ουσιαστική προσπάθεια να

ξεκαθαριστούν Þλεσ οι πτυχέσ ενÞσ πολύπλοκου νοµοθετήµατοσ και απ’ Þσουσ είναι υπέρ, αλλά και απ’ Þσουσ διαφωνούν στην προσπάθεια, εφÞσον έχει παρθεί η απÞφαση για τη δηµιουργία καζίνο να γίνει µε τον καλύτερο δυνατÞ τρÞπο». Ο κ. ΒÞτσησ είπε Þτι το υπουργείο εµπορίου έδωσε απαντήσεισ σήµερα στουσ περισσÞτερουσ απÞ τουσ προβληµατισµούσ που τέθηκαν στην προηγούµενη συνεδρία απÞ τισ πολιτικέσ δυνάµεισ. «Έχει γίνει σε κάθε άρθρο ανάλυση τησ απάντησησ του υπουργείου και φιλοδοξούµε Þτι στην επÞ-

™ÙÈ˜ 25/2 Ù· ÚÔÎ·Ù·ÚÎÙÈÎ¿ 2014 ÙË˜ ∆Ú. ∫‡ÚÔ˘ Το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Τράπεζασ Κύπρου θα συνεδριάσει στισ 25 Φεβρουαρίου 2015, για να εξετάσει τα προκαταρκτικά οικονοµικά αποτελέσµατα του Συγκροτήµατοσ, για το έτοσ που έληξε στισ 31 ∆εκεµβρίου 2014. Τα οικονοµικά αποτελέσµατα θα ανακοινωθούν την ίδια µέρα, µετά το τέλοσ τησ χρηµατιστηριακήσ συνάντησησ, στο Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου και το Χρηµατιστήριο Αθηνών.

∞Ó·‚¿ıÌÈÛË ÙÔ˘ ÙËÏÂÊˆÓÈÎÔ‡ ‰ÈÎÙ‡Ô˘ ÙˆÓ ∫∂¶ Το Τµήµα ∆ηµÞσιασ ∆ιοίκησησ και Προσωπικού του Υπουργείου Οικονοµικών ανακοίνωσε Þτι, στο πλαίσιο λειτουργίασ του Κέντρου Τηλεξυπηρέτησησ και ΠληροφÞρησησ του Πολίτη στα Κέντρα Εξυπηρέτησησ του Πολίτη (ΚΕΠ), έχει προγραµµατιστεί η εκτέλεση εργασιών τεχνικήσ φύσεωσ που είναι αναγκαίεσ για την αναβάθµιση του τηλεφωνικού δικτύου Þλων των ΚΕΠ. Ωσ εκ τούτου, θα υπάρξει αναγκαστική διακοπή των τηλεφωνικών γραµµών στα ΚΕΠ Λευκωσίασ, Λεµεσού, Λάρνακασ, Πάφου, Αµµοχώστου, ΠÞλησ Χρυσοχούσ και Πελενδρίου, κατά τισ πιο κάτω ηµεροµηνίεσ: ΚΕΠ ΛΕΥΚΩΣΙΑΣ 16/2/2015, ΚΕΠ ΛΕΜΕΣΟΥ 18/2/2015,, ΚΕΠ ΛΑΡΝΑΚΑΣ 17/2/2015, ΚΕΠ ΠΑΦΟΥ 19/2/2015, ΚΕΠ ΑΜΜΟΧΩΣΤΟΥ 12/2/2015, ΚΕΠ ΠΟΛΗΣ ΧΡΥΣΟΧΟΥΣ 20/2/2015, ΚΕΠ ΠΕΛΕΝ∆ΡΙΟΥ 13/2/2015 Το Τµήµα ∆ηµÞσιασ ∆ιοίκησησ και Προσωπικού απολογείται για οποιαδήποτε ταλαιπωρία τυχÞν προκληθεί µέχρι την ολοκλήρωση του έργου και ευχαριστεί Þλουσ τουσ πολίτεσ για την κατανÞηση.

∂ÏÏËÓÈÎ‹: ¶ÚÔÎ·Ù·ÚÎÙÈÎ¿ ÛÙÈ˜ 27 ºÂ‚ÚÔ˘·Ú›Ô˘ Η Ελληνική Τράπεζα ανακοίνωσε Þτι το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ τράπεζασ θα συνεδριάσει την Παρασκευή 27 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 για να εξετάσει, µεταξύ άλλων, τα προκαταρκτικά αποτελέσµατα του Οµίλου για το έτοσ 2014. Η ανακοίνωση τησ ένδειξησ του αποτελέσµατοσ για το πλήρεσ οικονοµικÞ έτοσ 2014 θα γίνει στο ΧΑΚ και την επιτροπή κεφαλαιαγοράσ µετά απÞ την έγκριση τουσ απÞ το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο τησ Τράπεζασ.

µενη συνεδρία θα ξεκινήσει η πραγµατική κατ’ άρθρον συζήτηση» ανέφερε. Είπε Þτι πρÞκειται για ένα εγχείρηµα «πολύ σηµαντικÞ ιδιαίτερα σήµερα για την κυπριακή οικονοµία», σηµειώνοντασ ταυτÞχρονα Þτι «τα οποιαδήποτε κοινωνικά προβλήµατα πρέπει να αντιµετωπιστούν µέσα απÞ τη νοµοθεσία». Ενώπιον των δύο επιτροπών ο γενικÞσ διευθυντήσ του υπουργείου εµπορίου Στέλιοσ Χειµώνασ ανέφερε Þτι ολοκληρώνεται σύντοµα ο νοµοτεχνικÞσ έλεγχοσ των κανονισµών οι οποίοι θα σταλούν τισ επÞµενεσ ηµέρεσ στη βουλή.

∞ÚÓÂ›Ù·È ·Ó¿ÌÂÈÍË ÛÙÔ ™∞¶∞ Ô ™·Ú›Î·˜ Αρνείται κάθε ανάµειξη στο σκάνδαλο του ΣΑΠΑ, ο βουλευτήσ τησ Ε∆ΕΚ Φειδίασ Σαρίκασ ο οποίοσ έδωσε χθεσ πολύωρη κατάθεση, µετά την πλήρη άρση τησ ασυλίασ του απÞ το Ανώτατο ∆ικαστήριο. Σε ανακοίνωση οι δικηγÞροι του Φειδία Σαρίκα, Χρίστοσ Τριανταφυλλίδησ και ∆ηµήτρησ Παυλίδησ αναφέρουν Þτι ο πελάτησ τουσ παρουσιάστηκε µε δική του πρωτοβουλία χθεσ το πρωί στην Αστυνοµία και έδωσε κατάθεση και απάντησε σε Þλεσ τισ ερωτήσεισ που του τέθηκαν. Προσθέτουν Þτι ο ίδιοσ επαναλαµβάνει τη θέση Þτι δεν έχει οποιαδήποτε εµπλοκή µε το σκάνδαλο του

ΣΑΠΑ, Þπωσ ευθύσ εξ’ αρχήσ είχε δηλώσει. Σύµφωνα µε την ένορκη δήλωση του Βοηθού ∆ιευθυντή του ΤΑΕ Αρχηγείου Γιαννάκη Γεωργίου, η Αστυνοµία κατέχει µαρτυρία, σύµφωνα µε την οποία, ο Φειδίασ Σαρίκασ, στην περίοδο τησ θητείασ του ωσ δήµαρχοσ Πάφου, χρηµατιζÞταν απÞ διάφορα άτοµα και εταιρείεσ για να συναινέσει ή και να βοηθήσει στην κατακύρωση διαφÞρων συµβολαίων τα οποία σχετίζονταν µε το Συµβούλιο Αποχετεύσεων Πάφου. Σύµφωνα µε την ίδια µαρτυρία, για το σκοπÞ αυτÞ διατηρούσε και τραπεζικÞ λογαριασµÞ στην Ελλάδα, στον οποίο κατατέθηκαν διάφορα ποσά.

Ã∞∫: ¢È·ÁÚ·Ê‹ °Ú·ÌÌ·Ù›ˆÓ ¢ËÌÔÛ›Ô˘ Την αναστολή διαπραγµάτευσησ των 120 Ηµερών Γραµµατίων ∆ηµοσίου 1ησ Έκδοσησ Σειράσ 2014 (17/10/2014-16/2/2015), µε κωδικÞ Γ∆120ΗΑ14/ TB120DA14 απÞ τισ 11 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 µέχρι και τισ 13 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 (συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ), µέχρι δηλαδή την εκκαθάριση Þλων των συναλλαγών ενÞψει

τησ διαγραφήσ των τίτλων, ανακοίνωσε το Χρηµατιστήριο Αξιών Κύπρου. Η διαγραφή των πιο πάνω Γραµµατίων ∆ηµοσίου θα γίνει στισ 16 Φεβρουαρίου 2015. Η απÞφαση αυτή λήφθηκε για προστασία των επενδυτών σύµφωνα µε το Άρθρο 183 του Περί Αξιών και Χρηµατιστηρίου Αξιών Κύπρου ΝÞµου.

∏ ·‚Â‚·ÈfiÙËÙ· ÁÈ· ÚˆÛÈÎ‹ ·ÁÔÚ¿ ı· ··Û¯ÔÏ‹ÛÂÈ Û˘Ó¤‰ÚÈÔ ÙÔ˘ ¶∞™À•∂ Οι ραγδαίεσ αλλαγέσ στον τοµέα του τουρισµού παγκÞσµια, οι νέεσ προοπτικέσ που διανοίγονται για την κυπριακή τουριστική βιοµηχανία αλλά και η αβεβαιÞτητα για τη Ρωσική αγορά και το ολοένα και πιο έντονο ανταγωνιστικÞ πεδίο που έχουµε ν’ αντιµετωπίσουµε µετά και απÞ την παρατεταµένη παγκÞσµια οικονοµική κρίση, θα αποτελέσουν σηµείο αναφοράσ του 37ου Ετήσιου Ξενοδοχειακού Συνεδρίου του Παγκύπριου Συνδέσµου ΞενοδÞχων (ΠΑΣΥΞΕ) που θα πραγµατοποιηθεί την Τρίτη 17 Φεβρουαρίου 2015, στο Ξενοδοχείο HILTON PARK στη Λευκωσία (ώρεσ 09.00-

16.00). Εισηγητήσ του Συνεδρίου θα είναι ο ΥφυπουργÞσ παρά τω Προέδρω, Κωνσταντίνοσ Πετρίδησ. Στο συνέδριο θα συµετάσχουν και ο Αγγ. Λοϊζου, ΠρÞεδροσ του Κυπριακού Οργανισµού Τουρισµού, ο W. Porter, Chief Executive Officer, τησ HERMES AIRPORTS LTD, ο G. Wilson, Managing Director-Mainstream Product & Purchasing, TUI GROUP, καθώσ και η ∆ρα ∆. Κούτουλα, Tourism & Hospitality Marketing Consultant και Assistant Professor of Tourism Management του Πανεπιστηµίου Πατρών.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

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∞¡∞¶∆À•∂π™ - µÚ‹Î·ÌÂ ÙÔÓ ÙÚfiÔ ÙË˜ ÂÈÏ¤ÔÓ Î·Ù·ÛÙÚÔÊ‹˜; ∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô˚˙Ô˘ ∞ÓÙÒÓË˜ §Ô›˙Ô˘ F.R.I.C.S. & ™˘ÓÂÚÁ¿ÙÂ˜ §Ù‰, ∂ÎÙÈÌËÙ¤˜ ∞ÎÈÓ‹ÙˆÓ & ¢È·¯ÂÈÚÈÛÙ¤˜ ŒÚÁˆÓ ∞Ó¿Ù˘ÍË˜

Μασ κάνει τροµερή εντύπωση µε πÞση ευκολία µπορούµε να καταφερÞµαστε εναντίον των µεγάλων αναπτύξεων στον τοµέα των ακινήτων. Σε πρÞσφατο δηµοσίευµα εφηµερίδασ για την Πάφο µε επικεφαλίδα «Τα έργα µαµούθ καταστρέφουν την Πάφο», δηµοσιογράφοσ καταφερÞταν εναντίον των µεγάλων έργων που τροχοδροµούνται στην Πάφο, έστω και καθυστερηµένα. Το δηµοσίευµα αναφέρεται σε «τερατώδη» έργα που στÞχο έχουν Þχι την ευηµερία τησ Πάφου αλλά των ιδιωτών επενδυτών. Αναφέρθηκε στο έργο Νεάπολισ, το Eden City, το έργο Venus Rock, το έργο Λίµνη του συγκροτήµατοσ ΣιακÞλα κλπ. Για κάθε ένα απÞ αυτά τα έργα χρειάζεται να επενδυθούν εκατοµµύρια ευρώ σε µελέτεσ, σχέδια και έρευνεσ σε σχέση µε το περιβάλλον, κυκλοφορικÞ και εµπορικÞτητα/επιδράσεισ στισ υπÞλοιπεσ περιοχέσ τησ Πάφου, πριν καν ξεκινήσουν. Για εµασ τουσ «γηραιÞτερουσ» που θυµÞµαστε το παρελθÞν, µασ θυµίζει, την προσπάθεια ανέγερσησ του ξενοδοχείου Άνασσα, τώρα αστέρι ανά το παγκÞσµιο µε προσέλκυση τησ elite του jet-set, που περιλαµβάνει βασιλείσ, πρίγκιπεσ, εκατοµµυριούχουσ επισκέπτεσ και άλλουσ. Ùµωσ και τÞτε είχαµε στενοκεφαλιέσ κυρίωσ απÞ τουσ αυτοαποκαλούµενουσ περιβαλλοντιστέσ και τώρα η έρευνα για «σκελετούσ στα ερµάρια» συνεχίζεται. Εάν ξεκινήσουµε κύριε δηµοσιογράφε (φανταζÞµαστε κάνατε σχετική έρευνα αφού συζητήσατε και το θέµα µε τουσ επενδυτέσ) καταλήξετε κατ’ εσάσ στα συµπεράσµατα σασ. Και Þµωσ: - Το έργο Νεάπολισ – Ωσ µέροσ του ευρύτερου έργου ανάπτυξησ αποτελεί το πανεπιστήµιο Νεάπολισ το οποίο λειτουργεί µε αρκετά εκατοµµύρια επιχορηγήσεισ απÞ τον Ùµιλο ΛεπτÞσ, µε χρονικά πλαίσια για την δηµιουργία νοσοκοµείου, µουσείου κλπ και καµία εµπορική/οικιστική ανάπτυξη δεν µπορεί να εκτελεστεί εάν αυτά τα έργα υποδοµήσ δεν αποπερατωθούν πρώτα. Άρα που είναι το πρÞβληµα σασ; - Το έργο Aristo Χα Ποτάµι - Έχει γίνει το πρώτο γήπεδο γκολφ και τώρα αποπερατώθηκε το δεύτερο, µια επένδυση αρκετών εκατοµµυρίων µε στÞχο την τουριστική και οικιστική ανάπτυξη και αναφέρεστε για κατοικίεσ του 1 εκ. ευρώ. Καλά τι είναι το πρÞβληµα σασ; Ùτι το έργο αυτÞ µε την δυναµικÞτητα που είχε λÞγω τησ τωρινήσ κατάστασησ, αναβλήθηκαν τα πρÞσθετα έργα τησ µαρίνασ, ξενοδοχείου κλπ δεν θα πρέπει σε κάποιο στάδιο να είναι και προσ Þφελοσ του επενδυτή και προσ Þφελοσ τησ περιοχήσ γενικÞτερα; Με τι κέφι νέοι επενδυτέσ θα προσελκυσθούν σε νέα έργα γήπεδα γκολφ, που αποτελούν στρατηγική του κράτουσ, πωσ θα προσελκυσθούν µε αυτού του είδουσ τισ αντιδράσεισ: ∆ηλαδή θέλουµε ή Þχι νέεσ επενδύσεισ κύριε δηµοσιογράφε; Και Þµωσ µεταξύ άλλων και η δική σασ εφηµερίδα βοηθήθηκε απÞ τισ πολλαπλέσ διαφηµίσεισ απÞ αυτά και άλλα έργα ανάπτυξησ. - Το Eden City – Το έργο αυτÞ γνωστÞ ωσ έργο «του ΑρχιεπισκÞπου» στην Γεροσκήπου. Τι είναι εδώ το πρÞβληµα; Αντιµετωπίσαµε την ίδια κατάσταση Þταν ο Σεΐχησ του Ντουπάι αποπεράτωσε το Palm Island και το έργο World τα οποία αποτελούν τώρα διεθνή «διευθύνσεισ» για τουσ πλούσιουσ αγοραστέσ. Μακάρι να γίνει αυτή η µεγάλου µεγέθουσ επένδυση των 7 δισ ευρώ. και εάν υπάρχουν ερωτηµατικά, καλύτερα να πούµε σε αυτÞν τον επενδυτή να φύγει; Μακάρι το έργο αυτÞ και άλλα να εκτελεστούν, αλλά Þτι και να είναι το αποτέλεσµα, τα ακίνητα δεν θα φύγουν απÞ την Κύπρο.

- Η Λίµνη – Golf Resort – Tο έργο αυτÞ γνωστÞ ωσ ΣιακÞλα, µετέτρεψε µέχρι αυτÞ το στάδιο µια τεράστια καρκινογÞνο έκταση ερείπιο που αποτελείτο απÞ δύο «βουνά» µε υπολείµµατα χαλκού που παρέσυρε ο αέρασ την σκÞνη, ένα κρατήρα τεραστίων διαστάσεων, µια παραλία που ίσωσ να µην µπορούσε κάποιοσ να την κάνει χρήση λÞγω των αποθεµάτων χαλκού, ένα κατεστραµµένο βυθÞ, µια κατεστραµµένη αποβάθρα κλπ κλπ. Με επένδυση που µέχρι σήµερα ξεπέρασε τα 50 εκ. ευρώ έγινε αποκατάσταση του χώρου, φυτεύτηκαν χιλιάδεσ δένδρα, καθαρίστηκε η παραλία, κατασκευάστηκε νέα αποβάθρα κλπ κλπ και αντί να πούµε αυτού του ευφάνταστου επενδυτή µπράβο και ευχαριστώ, γίνονται προσπάθειεσ να τον απογοητεύσουµε. - Μαρίνεσ – Το τι έγινε µε τισ αρχικέσ επιδράσεισ για την ανέγερση τησ µαρίνασ Λεµεσού είναι γνωστÞ απÞ τισ διάφορεσ οργανώσεισ που θα µασ µείνει αξέχαστο. Ευτυχώσ το έργο τέλειωσε, ένα στολίδι τησ Λεµεσού και τησ Κύπρου. Παραλίγο να ακυρωθεί και η µαρίνα τησ Αγίασ Νάπασ λÞγω και πάλι αντιδράσεων τησ τελευταίασ στιγµήσ και Þµωσ αυτÞ το πρώην φτωχÞ ψαροχώρι, θα τύχει τεράστιασ αναβάθµισησ και µάλιστα Þταν ενδιαφέρθηκε και ο ξένοσ επενδυτήσ των 200 εκ. ευρώ (η µαρίνα Λάρνακασ ακÞµη ψάχνεται – δυστυχώσ). - Ακάµασ – Ετοιµάστηκε και το µεγαλεπήβολο έργο του Ακάµα το οποίο λÞγω οικονοµικήσ αδυναµίασ δεν πρÞκειται να εκτελεστεί και το λέµε µε κάποια βεβαιÞτητα, διÞτι βρίσκεται στο ψυγείο εδώ και 25 χρÞνια. ΑπÞ την ήπια ανάπτυξη που επιτρέπεται σε περιοχέσ Natura, εξαιρέθηκε και το έργο Φωτιάδη. Και ο λÞγοσ; Υπάρχει λύση αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ. Να του επιτραπεί η ανάπτυξη µε χρονικÞ ορίζοντα έστω 5 ετών, καταβολή 5.0 εκ. ευρώ (Þπωσ τα γήπεδα γκολφ) και η χρηµατοδÞτηση για την κατασκευή πρÞσβασησ και παροχή υπηρεσιών. Εάν το έργο αυτÞ δεν εκτελεστεί εντÞσ περιÞδου έστω 5-7 ετών να του απορριφθεί η άδεια. Εύρωστεσ οικονοµικά εταιρείεσ Þπωσ ΣιακÞλασ/Φωτιάδησ κλπ είναι εκείνεσ που έχουν κάποια δυνατÞτητα εκτέλεσησ τέτοιων έργων εκατοµµυρίων. Να τουσ πούµε «Þχι ευχαριστώ δεν θα πάρουµε»; Μέµφεται ο δηµοσιογράφοσ/εφηµερίδα του κατ’ επέκταση, Þτι η νυν Κυβέρνηση δίδει απλÞχερα κίνητρα. Καλά που είναι το πρÞβληµα τουσ, «µασ φλÞµωσαν µήπωσ το ενδιαφέρον απÞ ξένουσ επενδυτέσ»; Σε χώρεσ Þπωσ η Ελλάδα και Πορτογαλία, Ισπανία και άλλεσ που διψούν για ξένεσ επενδύσεισ (Þπωσ και εµείσ), η εκτέλεση τέτοιων έργων που βοηθούν την ευρύτερη οικονοµία θα τουσ έστηναν αγάλµατα ευχαριστίασ και Þχι να τυγχάνουν αυτήσ τησ αρνητικήσ συµπεριφοράσ και µάλιστα απÞ ακριβοπληρωµένουσ Κυβερνητικούσ επιτρÞπουσ, κÞστουσ πέραν των 100.000 ευρώ τον χρÞνο (βλέπε επίτροπο περιβάλλοντοσ) να µασ καταγγέλλει στην Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση. Τι θα πούµε στισ διάφο-

ρεσ ανοησίεσ που προβάλλονται απÞ καιρού εισ καιρÞ για εύηχα περιβαλλοντικά θέµατα Þπωσ το νερÞφιδο τησ Λίµνησ Παραλιµνίου σε 1.000 σκάλεσ (υπάρχει εισήγηση εναλλακτικήσ λύσησ), η κατάταξη τησ περιοχήσ ωσ Natura κατά µήκοσ του δρÞµου Αγίασ ΝάπασΠαραλιµνίου (µε κÞστοσ εκατοµµυρίων για τον φορολογούµενο), το τώρα βιοµηχανικÞ λιµάνι τησ Λάρνακασ (που να είστε σίγουροι θα το πάρει η ΛεµεσÞσ). Οι προτάσεισ για δελφινάριο, κροκÞδειλουσ κλπ που να είστε σίγουροι θα µεταφερθούν τα τουρκοκρατούµενα ή άλλεσ χώρεσ (υπάρχει πρÞταση απÞ Ελλάδα) και φθάνουµε στο καζίνο που και εδώ υπάρχουν αντιδράσεισ για επουσιώδη θέµατα (π.χ. κάπνισµα – Þσοι τουσ επηρεάζει ασ µην το επισκεφθούν).

Με τι µυαλά διοικούµαστε αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ σε µια κρίσιµη για την οικονοµία και τον µέλλον των ανέργων τησ Κύπρου; Εδώ δεν µπορούµε να τα βγάλουµε πέρα µε τισ δύο γραµµατείσ του πρώην πρÞεδρο τησ Βουλήσ, το θέµα µε τισ λιµουζίνεσ και αστυνοµικούσ/κλητήρεσ, άλλοι που κυκλοφορούν µε ποδήλατο µασ λένε και Þµωσ χρεώνουν έξοδα διακίνησησ αυτοκινήτου, άλλοι κρατικοί υπάλληλοι που έχουν µισθÞ 250.000 ευρώ τον χρÞνο, ενώ ο πρωθυπουργÞσ τησ Βρετανίασ έχει µισθÞ µÞνο 150.000 ευρώ τον χρÞνο, άλλοσ που χρειάστηκε σοφέρ για καθηµερινή µετακίνηση του απÞ Λευκωσία στην ΛεµεσÞ και άλλοι των πρώην Κυπριακών Αερογραµµών συντεχνιακοί που πριν αφυπηρετήσουν έτυχαν αναβάθµισησ µε την ανάλογη αύξηση µισθού και µετά απÞ 2 µήνεσ αφυπηρέτησαν. Έχουµε και άλλα να σασ αναφέρουµε και δεν µασ παίρνει ο χώροσ αυτÞσ, αλλά τα πιο πάνω είναι µια ένδειξη τησ επικρατούσασ σαθρήσ κατάστασησ τησ οικονοµίασ και Þτι το χειρÞτερο, τι νοιάζει τα διεφθαρµένα κÞµµατα εάν βγούµε εκτÞσ του προγράµµατοσ τησ ΤρÞικασ και τησ τελευταίασ πρÞτασησ τησ Ε.Κ.Τ. για αγορά οµολÞγων τησ ∆ηµοκρατίασ; Τι έγινε κύριοι για την διανοµή µε τουσ Τουρκοκύπριουσ του αερίου (που δεν υπάρχει), τι έγινε µε τισ πιέσεισ για την κατασκευή του τερµατικού που δεν είναι βιώσιµο βάσει των αποθεµάτων; Αυτά είναι τα θέµατα που θα πρέπει να µασ απασχολούν και Þχι οι αναπτύξεισ ακινήτων που θα είναι η βάση τησ ανάκαµψησ – παράδειγµα συνέδριο 40 διεθνών επενδυτών για ακίνητα στην ΛεµεσÞ στισ 9.2.2015. Στο τέλοσ-τέλοσ αγαπητοί µασ αναγνώστεσ ποιοσ αγαπά την Κύπρο;

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

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4 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

∫˘ÚÈ·Î¤˜ ÂÈ¯ÂÈÚ‹ÛÂÈ˜ Î·È Â˘Î·ÈÚ›Â˜ ¯ÚËÌ·ÙÔ‰fiÙËÛË˜ ÛÂ ËÌÂÚ›‰· ÙÔ˘ π¶∂ Στην ενηµέρωση των κυπριακών επιχειρήσεων για τισ ευκαιρίεσ υποστήριξησ και χρηµατοδÞτησησ των ερευνητικών και καινοτοµικών δραστηριοτήτων τουσ, προχωρά το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ) στο πλαίσιο των δραστηριοτήτων του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου Επιχειρηµατικήσ Στήριξησ Κύπρου και των εθνικών σηµείων επαφήσ για το ΠρÞγραµµα «Ορίζοντασ 2020». Για το σκοπÞ αυτÞ, διοργανώνει ενηµερωτική ηµερίδα µε τίτλο «ΧρηµατοδÞτηση και Υποστήριξη για Έρευνα και Καινοτοµία: Ευκαιρίεσ για Κυπριακέσ Επιχειρήσεισ», η οποία θα πραγµατοποιηθεί αύριο Πέµπτη 12 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 και ώρα 9:00 π.µ. στο ΣυνεδριακÞ Κέντρο «Φιλοξενία». Η Ηµερίδα έχει ωσ στÞχο την ενηµέρωση των επιχειρήσεων για τισ ευκαιρίεσ χρηµατοδÞτησησ των ερευνητικών και καινοτοµικών δραστηριοτήτων τουσ µέσα απÞ εθνικά και

διεθνή προγράµµατα χορηγιών, την ενηµέρωση των επιχειρήσεων για σχετικέσ υποστηρικτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ που µπορούν να αξιοποιήσουν καθώσ και για τισ πολιτικέσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ που αφορούν τισ µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ. Για τον σκοπÞ αυτÞ θα βρίσκονται στην Κύπρο και εκπρÞσωποι τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ και του Executive Agency for Small and Medium Enterprises (EASME). Ιδιαίτερη έµφαση θα δοθεί και στο εργαλείο SME Instrument που αποτελεί χρηµατοδοτικÞ µηχανισµÞ του Προγράµµατοσ «Ορίζοντασ 2020 το οποίο φιλοδοξεί να υποστηρίξει, να χρηµατοδοτήσει και να αναπτύξει τα πλέον καινοτοµικά και πρωτοποριακά προϊÞντα ή υπηρεσίεσ σε ευρωπαϊκÞ επίπεδο. ∆ικαιούχοι του προγράµµατοσ είναι αποκλειστικά µικροµεσαίεσ επιχειρήσεισ (µεµονωµένεσ ή σε σύµπραξη), οι οποίεσ έχουν διεθνείσ φιλοδοξίεσ και έχουν

τη θέληση να µετατρέψουν ισχυρέσ, καινοτÞµεσ επιχειρηµατικέσ ιδέεσ σε προϊÞντα, υπηρεσίεσ και διεργασίεσ που θα πρωταγωνιστήσουν στισ αγορέσ. Κατά τη διάρκεια τησ Ηµερίδασ θα γίνει και η υπογραφή των πρωτοκÞλλων συνεργασίασ του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου Επιχειρηµατικήσ Στήριξησ Κύπρου µε άλλουσ φορείσ στήριξησ επιχειρήσεων στο πλαίσιο τησ έναρξησ τησ νέασ περιÞδου λειτουργίασ του Κέντρου 2015-2020. Το ΙΠΕ συντονίζει τισ εργασίεσ του Ευρωπαϊκού Κέντρου Επιχειρηµατικήσ Στήριξησ Κύπρου, µέλουσ του Enterprise Europe Network, στο οποίο µετέχουν το ΚΕΒΕ και το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Γραφείο Κύπρου, προσφέροντασ πληροφÞρηση και συµβουλευτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ προσ τουσ κύπριουσ ενδιαφερÞµενουσ, µε στÞχο την ανάπτυξη τησ ανταγωνιστικÞτητασ και τησ καινοτοµίασ

των εγχώριων επιχειρήσεων. Το δίκτυο των Εθνικών Σηµείων Επαφήσ για την Κύπρο, που λειτουργούν στο ΙΠΕ, παρέχει υπηρεσίεσ στήριξησ των ερευνητών και των επιχειρηµατιών για Þλεσ τισ δραστηριÞτητεσ του Προγράµµατοσ «Ορίζοντασ 2020». ΠερισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στην ιστοσελίδα του Ιδρύµατοσ www.research.org.cy. Το Ίδρυµα Προώθησησ Έρευνασ (ΙΠΕ) αποτελεί τον εθνικÞ φορέα, αρµÞδιο για την υποστήριξη και προώθηση τησ έρευνασ, τησ τεχνολογικήσ ανάπτυξησ και τησ καινοτοµίασ στην Κύπρο.

RICS: ™˘ÓÂ¯›˙ÂÙ·È Ë ÙÒÛË ÛÙ· ·Î›ÓËÙ· ÙË˜ §Â˘ÎˆÛ›·˜ Σηµαντικέσ µειώσεισ παγκύπρια, σε Þλεσ τισ κατηγορίεσ µε τη σηµαντικÞτερη πτώση να παρουσιάζεται στη Λευκωσία κατέγραψε το ∆’ τρίµηνο του 2014, ο ∆είκτησ Τιµών Ακινήτων, σύµφωνα µε το RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors) Κύπρου. Ο δείκτησ παρακολουθεί τισ τιµέσ και τα ενοίκια των ακινήτων σε Þλεσ τισ επαρχίεσ και βασίζεται σε µεθοδολογία που αναπτύχθηκε απÞ το Πανεπιστήµιο του Reading, του Ηνωµένου Βασιλείου. Παγκύπρια, οι τιµέσ για κατοικίεσ, τÞσο για σπίτια, Þσο και για διαµερίσµατα, παρουσίασαν πτώση τησ τάξησ του 1.1% και 0.7% αντίστοιχα, µε τη µεγαλύτερη µείωση να καταγράφεται στην ΑµµÞχωστο (3.6% για τα σπίτια) και στη Λευκωσία (1.1% για τα διαµερίσµατα). Παγκύπρια, οι τιµέσ των καταστηµάτων µειώθηκαν κατά µέσο Þρο 1.6%, των

γραφείων κατά µέσο Þρο 1.2% και των αποθηκών κατά µέσο Þρο 1,9%. Σε σύγκριση µε το αντίστοιχο τέταρτο τρίµηνο του 2013, οι τιµέσ των διαµερισµάτων µειώθηκαν κατά 5.4%, των σπιτιών κατά 5.0%, των καταστηµάτων κατά 8.1%, των γραφείων κατά 6.1% και των αποθηκών κατά 5.3%. Η µέση τιµή ενοικίασησ σε ολÞκληρη την Κύπρο παρουσίασε τριµηνιαία πτώση 1.3% στα διαµερίσµατα, 0.2% στα σπίτια, στα καταστήµατα 0.4%, στισ αποθήκεσ 0.9% και στα γραφεία οριακή άνοδο 0.2%. Συγκρίνοντασ τα ενοίκια µε εκείνα του τέταρτου τριµήνου του 2013, οι τιµέσ ενοικίασησ υποχώρησαν κατά 5.0% για τα διαµερίσµατα, 3.1% για σπίτια, 8.9% για καταστήµατα, 8.8% για τισ αποθήκεσ και 2.9% για τα γραφεία. Η πλειονÞτητα των κατηγοριών ακινήτων και των γεωγραφικών περιοχών

εξακολουθούν να επηρεάζονται, µε αυτέσ που κατέγραψαν πρώτεσ τη µεγαλύτερη πτώση στον τοµέα των ακινήτων, π.χ. Πάφοσ και Λάρνακα, τώρα να παρουσιάζουν σηµάδια σταθερÞτητασ των τιµών. O Χαράλαµποσ Πετρίδησ, MRICS, δήλωσε: «Η πτωτική πορεία στισ τιµέσ των ακινήτων συνεχίζεται και το τέταρτο τρίµηνο του 2014. Το θετικÞ που παρατηρείται το 2014 σε σχέση µε το 2013 είναι η αυξηµένη εµπο-

AÓ Â›ÛÙÂ hitech ÙfiÙÂ Û·˜ ÂÓ‰È·Ê¤ÚÂÈ Ô ‰È·ÁˆÓÈÛÌfi˜ Watify Business Αν έχετε µια νέα επιχειρηµατική ιδέα που σχετίζεται µε mobile app, software, online game, website, mobile game, e-shop ή web app δηλώστε συµµετοχή στο Watify Business Idea Competition. Ο διαγωνισµÞσ διοργανώνεται στα πλαίσια του Ευρωπαϊκού έργου Watify Cyprus! Το WATIFY συντονίζει στην Κύπρο ο CITEA, και έχει απώτερο στÞχο την τÞνωση τησ ψηφιακήσ επιχειρηµατικÞτητασ στην Κύπρο. Ο διαγωνισµÞσ λήγει στισ 28 Φεβρουαρίου. ∆ηλώστε συµµετοχή και διεκδικήστε µεγάλα βραβεία και την ευκαιρία καθοδήγησησ απÞ έµπειρουσ µέντορεσ. Οι 20 νέοι που θα επιλεγούν για να διαγωνιστούν θα βοηθηθούν απÞ έµπειρουσ και καταξιωµένουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ τησ Κύπρου στην ανάπτυξη τησ επιχειρηµατικήσ τουσ ιδέασ και στην αναζήτηση χρήσιµων πληροφοριών για να εξελίξουν την ιδέα τουσ. Οι συναντήσεισ των mentoring sessions απÞ έµπειρουσ επιχειρηµατίεσ σε επίδοξουσ ψηφιακούσ επιχειρηµατίεσ αναµένεται να ξεκινήσουν µέσα Μαρτίου 2015 µέχρι το Μάιο. Οι συµµετέχοντεσ µπορεί να λάβουν µέροσ µÞνοι τουσ ή σε οµάδεσ. Επίσησ πρέπει είτε ατοµικά είτε σε οµάδα τουλάχιστον ένασ απÞ τουσ συµµετέχοντεσ να είναι φοιτητήσ/τρια ή απÞφοιτοσ/η Κυπριακού πανεπιστηµίου. Αρχέσ Ιουνίου οι συµµετέχοντεσ θα παρουσιάσουν τισ εξελιγµένεσ/αναθεωρηµένεσ επιχειρηµατικέσ τουσ

ιδέεσ µπροστά σε πάνελ κριτών, οι οποίοι µετά απÞ ψηφοφορία θα επιλέξουν τισ 3 καλύτερεσ ιδέεσ που θα βραβευθούν και θα πάρουν πλούσια δώρα στη Μεγάλη Τελετή Βράβευσησ WATIFY CYPRUS που θα πραγµατοποιηθεί στα τέλη Ιουνίου. Τα Βραβεία είναι: 1ο βραβείο: 1500 ευρώ, 2o βραβείο: 600 ευρώ, 3ο βραβείο: 400 ευρώ. Για να λάβετε συµµετοχή στείλτε στα ελληνικά στο eu@citea.net: 1) Ένα σύντοµο βιογραφικÞ (µέχρι 2 σελίδεσ) 2) Μια µικρή περιγραφή (µέχρι 1 σελίδα) τησ ιδέασ σασ που να περιέχει: Τι είναι αυτÞ που θέλετε να δηµιουργήσετε; Ποιο είναι το πρÞβληµα στην αγορά που έρχεστε να αντιµετωπίσετε; Ποια άλλα ανταγωνιστικά προϊÞντα/υπηρεσίεσ υπάρχουν στην αγορά σε σχέση µε αυτÞ που θέλετε να υλοποιήσετε; Σε ποιο target group απευθύνεστε; 3) Ένα µικρÞ σηµείωµα που να εξηγεί γιατί θέλετε να λάβετε µέροσ στο διαγωνισµÞ Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ σχετικά µε το διαγωνισµÞ επισκεφθείτε το facebook event Watify Business Idea Competition: https://www.facebook.com/events/616725755100611/ Κάντε like τη σελίδα του Watify Cyprus στο facebook για να ενηµερώνεστε σχετικά µε νέα και εκδηλώσεισ: https://www.facebook.com/WatifyCyprus

¶ÚÔ˜ ÂÓÔÈÎ›·ÛË 179 ÎÏ›ÓÂ˜ ÙÔ˘ ∆∂¶∞∫ Το ΤεχνολογικÞ Πανεπιστήµιο Κύπρο, το οποίο έχει ωσ βάση του τη ΛεµεσÞ, ανακοίνωσε Þτι διαθέτει προσ ενοικίαση 179 κλίνεσ σε 9 ανεξάρτητα κτήρια των Φοιτητικών Εστιών για τουσ µήνεσ Ιούλιο και Αύγουστο του τρέχοντοσ έτουσ. Τα κτήρια των Φοιτητικών Εστιών του Τεχνολογικού Πανεπιστηµίου Κύπρου, τα οποία διατίθενται προσ ενοικίαση, βρίσκονται χωροθετηµένα σε κεντρικά σηµεία στην πÞλη τησ Λεµεσού απÞ τα οποία κάποιοσ µπορεί να έχει εύκολη πρÞσβαση προσ το εµπορικÞ και ιστορικÞ κέντρο τησ Λεµεσού καθώσ επίσησ και σε ποικίλεσ επιλογέσ ψυχαγωγικού χαρακτήρα. Το κÞστοσ διαµονήσ, είναι ιδιαίτερα χαµηλÞ και ξεκινά απÞ 19 ευρώ το βράδυ, αναλÞγωσ απÞ τον τύπο διαµερίσµατοσ για το οποίο υπάρχει ενδιαφέρον. ΠερισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ στα τηλέφωνα 25 002426/ 25002412 / 25002179.

ρευσιµÞτητα κατά 20%. Φαίνεται Þτι οι αγοραπωλησίεσ ακινήτων έχουν ανακάµψει και οι µειώσεισ των τιµών επαναφέρουν τη δραστηριÞτητα µε αυξηµένεσ πωλήσεισ ακινήτων. Ùσον αφορά τισ τιµέσ των ακινήτων αναµένεται να συνεχισθεί η πτωτική πορεία και κατά το 2015 εν αναµονή των εξελίξεων στο χρηµατοπιστωτικÞ τοµέα, κυρίωσ Þσον αφορά τα µη εξυπηρετούµενα δάνεια, την αυστηρή πολιτική δανειοδÞτησησ στην αγορά και τα υψηλά επιτÞκια. Επίσησ τα ακίνητα επηρεάζονται απÞ τισ δυσβάστακτεσ φορολογίεσ ιδιοκτησίασ και το θέµα των εκποιήσεων των ενυπÞθηκων ακινήτων ενεργώντασ έτσι ωσ τροχοπέδη για τη σταθεροποίηση τησ αγοράσ.» Η µεθοδολογία και τα πορίσµατα τησ έρευνασ είναι διαθέσιµα στην ιστοσελίδα του RICS.

ÃÔÚËÁ›Â˜ €8 ÂÎ. ÁÈ· ÓÂ·ÓÈÎ‹ ÂÈ¯ÂÈÚËÌ·ÙÈÎfiÙËÙ· Την 1η πρÞσκληση για υποβολή αιτήσεων στο πλαίσιο του Σχεδίου Ενίσχυσησ τησ Νεανικήσ ΕπιχειρηµατικÞτητασ εξέδωσε το Υπουργείο Ενέργειασ, Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού. Το σχέδιο περιλαµβάνεται στο ΕπιχειρησιακÞ ΠρÞγραµµα 20142020 «ΑνταγωνιστικÞτητα & ΑειφÞροσ Ανάπτυξη» και συγχρηµατοδοτείται απÞ το ΕυρωπαϊκÞ Ταµείο Περιφερειακήσ Ανάπτυξησ (Ε.Τ.Π.Α) και την Κυπριακή ∆ηµοκρατία για την περίοδο 2014 - 2020. Το Σχέδιο αποσκοπεί στην ανάπτυξη, υποστήριξη και προώθηση τησ επιχειρηµατικÞτητασ των νέων (απÞ 20 έωσ 40 ετών) που επιθυµούν να δραστηριοποιηθούν επιχειρηµατικά σε οποιαδήποτε οικονοµική δραστηριÞτητα εξαιρουµένων αυτών που αναφέρονται στον ΟδηγÞ του Σχεδίου, αξιοποιώντασ τισ γνώσεισ τουσ, την κατάρτιση και τα ταλέντα τουσ. Οι χορηγίεσ που θα παραχωρούνται στουσ νέουσ και νέεσ που θα ενταχθούν στο Σχέδιο ανέρχονται στο 50% πάνω στο κÞστοσ των επιλέξιµων δαπανών τησ επένδυσησ (εξοπλισµÞσ, κτήρια/διαµÞρφωση χώρων, κατάρτιση, προβολή-προώθηση, κεφάλαιο κίνησησ) µε ανώτατο ύψοσ χορηγίασ ανά επιχείρηση τισ 70.000 ευρώ για δραστηριÞτητεσ που αφορούν τη µεταποίηση και τισ 50.000 ευρώ για άλλεσ δραστηριÞτητεσ στουσ τοµείσ των υπηρεσιών, ηλεκτρονικού εµπορίου και τουρισµού. Το συνολικÞ ποσÞ που θα διατεθεί για τισ ανάγκεσ τησ παρούσασ πρÞσκλησησ είναι 8 εκ. ευρώ. Οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να εξασφαλίσουν τον ΟδηγÞ του Σχεδίου στον οποίο αναφέρονται Þλεσ οι λεπτοµέρειεσ και το Έντυπο τησ Αίτησησ απÞ την ιστοσελίδα του Υπουργείου Ενέργειασ, Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού ( http://www.mcit.gov.cy) καθώσ και απÞ τα Κεντρικά και Επαρχιακά Γραφεία του Υπουργείου. Σηµειώνεται Þτι τα έντυπα αιτήσεων θα είναι διαθέσιµα απÞ σήµερα Τετάρτη 11 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 και αιτήσεισ θα γίνονται δεκτέσ απÞ τισ 12 Φεβρουαρίου 2015 µέχρι τισ 11 Μαΐου 2015. Τα σχετικά έντυπα υποβολήσ των αιτήσεων θα πρέπει να υποβάλλονται µÞνο ταχυδροµικά µε συστηµένη επιστολή στη διεύθυνση: Υπουργείο Ενέργειασ, Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού, 1421, Λευκωσία, µε την ένδειξη «Σχέδιο Ενίσχυσησ τησ Νεανικήσ ΕπιχειρηµατικÞτητασ». Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ οι ενδιαφερÞµενοι µπορούν να επικοινωνούν µε τουσ αρµÞδιουσ Λειτουργούσ στα τηλέφωνα: 22867178, 22867239, 22867194, 22867317, 22867180.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

| ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | 5

™¯¤‰È· ¯ÔÚËÁÈÒÓ ÛÂ Û˘ÓÂÚÁ·Û›· À. ∂ÌÔÚ›Ô˘ Î·È ™∫∆ Tο θέµα τησ συνεργασίασ µεταξύ Υπουργείου Εµπορίου και Συνεργατισµού Þσον αφορά την εξέταση απÞ τα Συνεργατικά Πιστωτικά Ιδρύµατα των αιτηµάτων για χρηµατοδÞτηση επενδύσεων που εγκρίνονται στο πλαίσιο των Σχεδίων Χορηγιών που εφαρµÞζει το Υπουργείο, συζήτησαν ο ΥπουργÞσ Ενέργειασ, Εµπορίου, Βιοµηχανίασ και Τουρισµού Γιώργοσ Λακκοτρύπησ και ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Συνεργατικήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ ΝικÞλασ Χατζηγιάννησ. Η συνεργασία που ανακοινώθηκε αφορά το ΠρÞγραµµα για τη Μεταποίηση και Εµπορία Γεωργικών ΠροϊÞντων τησ Προγραµµατικήσ ΠεριÞδου 2017-2013. «Έχουµε εννιά Σχέδια που θέλουµε να ανακοινώσουµε εντÞσ του 2015. ΑπÞ το συνολικÞ ποσÞ των 165 εκ. ευρώ

που έχει στη διάθεσή του το Υπουργείο µέχρι το 2020, θέλουµε να διαθέσουµε στην αγορά Þσα περισσÞτερα µπορούµε, ακριβώσ σε µια περίοδο που τα έχει ανάγκη η οικονοµία µασ», ανέφερε ο κ. Λακκοτρύπησ. Έτσι, εντÞσ του 2015 προγραµµατίζουµε να προκηρύξουµε εννιά Σχέδια 75 εκ. ευρώ περίπου, τρία απÞ τα οποία έχουν ήδη ανακοινωθεί και είναι αναρτηµένα στην ιστοσελίδα του Υπουργείου τÞνισε. ΑπÞ την πλευρά του, ο ΠρÞεδροσ τησ Συνεργατικήσ Κεντρικήσ Τράπεζασ δήλωσε: «Εγκαινιάζουµε µια στενή συνεργασία µε το Υπουργείο Εµπορίου για τη χρηµατοδÞτηση αυτών των πολύ σηµαντικών ενεργειών. Για εµάσ η χρηµατοδÞτηση, αλλά και η προχρηµατοδÞτηση των επιχορηγήσεων, είναι πάρα πολύ σηµαντικέσ ωσ στρατηγική».

∂ÏÏËÓÈÎ‹: √ ¶¤ÙÚÔ˜ ∞ÚÛ·Ï›‰Ë˜ ÁÚ·ÌÌ·Ù¤·˜ ÙÔ˘ ¢.™. Τη θέση του Γραµµατέα του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, ανέλαβε απÞ την Παρασκευή 6 Φεβρουαρίου ο Πέτροσ Αρσαλίδησ. Ο κ. Αρσαλίδησ, σπούδασε οικονοµικά και λογιστική στο Oklahoma State University στισ Ηνωµένεσ Πολιτείεσ Αµερικήσ (B.Sc. και M.Sc. in Accounting), µε ειδίκευση στουσ ελέγχουσ εταιρειών και στισ συµβουλευτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ νεοσύστατων εταιρειών. Είναι Εγκεκριµένοσ Λογιστήσ (Certified Public Accountant, C.P.A.), Μέλοσ του American Institute of Certified Public Accountants και του Συνδέσµου Εγκεκριµένων Λογιστών Κύπρου. Υπηρέτησε για πέντε χρÞνια ωσ Ανώτεροσ ∆ιευθυντήσ στον ΕλεγκτικÞ Οίκο Ernst & Young στο Dallas, Texas, Ηνωµένεσ Πολιτείεσ Αµερικήσ µε ειδίκευση στουσ ελέγχουσ και συµβουλευτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ µεγάλων εταιρειών, κυρίωσ στουσ κλάδουσ των αεροµεταφορών, τεχνολογίασ και κατασκευών. Ακολούθωσ, επέστρεψε στην Κύπρο, Þπου εργάστηκε ωσ ∆ιευθυντήσ στον ΕλεγκτικÞ Οίκο Arthur Andersen, µε ειδίκευση στουσ ελέγχουσ και συµβουλευτικέσ υπηρεσίεσ υπεράκτιων εταιρειών.

ΑπÞ το 1997 εργάζεται στον Ùµιλο τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ, αρχικά ωσ Ανώτεροσ ΛειτουργÞσ τησ Οικονοµικήσ ∆ιεύθυνσησ και απÞ το 2000 ωσ ΟικονοµικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ των θυγατρικών εταιρειών του Συγκροτήµατοσ, Παγκυπριακήσ και Λήδρασ Ασφαλιστικήσ. Στισ 22 Μαΐου 2006, εξελέγη Γραµµατέασ του ∆ιοικητικού Συµβουλίου τησ Παγκυπριακήσ Ασφαλιστικήσ Λτδ. Το 2008, διορίστηκε Αναπληρωτήσ ΓενικÞσ ∆ιευθυντήσ τησ Παγκυπριακήσ Ασφαλιστικήσ Λτδ, θέση που διατήρησε µέχρι τισ 6 Φεβρουαρίου 2015, Þποτε διορίστηκε Γραµµατέασ τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ ∆ηµÞσιασ Εταιρείασ Λίµιτεδ.

∂› Ù¿ËÙÔ˜ ÙÔ “Master Plan” ·Ó¿Ù˘ÍË˜ ÙË˜ §Â˘ÎˆÛ›·˜ Την άµεση προώθηση έργων υποδοµήσ και ανάπτυξησ στη Λευκωσία, ζήτησε το ΕµπορικÞ και ΒιοµηχανικÞ Επιµελητήριο Λευκωσίασ (ΕΒΕΛ) απÞ τον ΥπουργÞ Εσωτερικών Σωκράτη Χάσικο. Σε συνάντηση που είχε το ∆ιοικητικÞ Συµβούλιο του ΕΒΕΛ µε τον κ. Χάσικο συζητήθηκαν θέµατα που αφορούν τον επιχειρηµατικÞ κÞσµο τησ Λευκωσίασ και ανταλλάχθηκαν απÞψεισ για συγκεκριµένα προβλήµατα που υπάρχουν στην πρωτεύουσα. Σχετικά µε την ανάγκη προώθησησ έργων υποδοµήσ, το ∆Σ του ΕΒΕΛ τÞνισε Þτι λÞγω τησ οικονοµικήσ κρίσησ η Λευκωσία παρουσιάζει συµπτώµατα µαρασµού, κάτι που µπορεί να ανατραπεί µÞνο µε τη δηµιουργία νέων υποδοµών και αναπτύξεων. Στα πλαίσια αυτά έγινε αναφορά στο “Master Plan” τησ Λευκωσίασ που προβλέπει την αξιοποίηση και αναδιαµÞρφωση χώρων που αναδεικνύουν τη Λευκωσία (π.χ. χώροσ ΓΣΠ), καθώσ και κενών οικοπέδων που προορίζονταν για την ανέγερση του Μεγάρου Πολιτισµού, τησ Βουλήσ, του παλιού νοσοκοµείου Λευκωσίασ, κ.α.. Σχολιάζοντασ τισ θέσεισ του ΕΒΕΛ, ο κ.

Χάσικοσ είπε Þτι είναι και πρÞθεση τησ κυβέρνησησ η προώθηση έργων υποδοµήσ στην πρωτεύουσα, αλλά µε µια προσέγγιση που θα προβλέπει τη σταδιακή προώθησή τουσ. Συγκεκριµένα, αναφέρθηκε σε σκέψεισ τησ κυβέρνησησ για προώθηση πρώτα έργων υποδοµήσ που αφορούν χαµηλού κÞστουσ λύσεισ και στη συνέχεια ανάλογα µε την εξέλιξη τησ οικονοµίασ να υπάρξει µια συνολική αναβάθµιση του αναπτυξιακού προσώπου τησ πρωτεύουσασ. Επίσησ το ∆Σ του ΕΒΕΛ έθεσε στον κ. ΥπουργÞ το θέµα τησ µεταρρύθµισησ τησ Τοπικήσ Αυτοδιοίκησησ, ζητώντασ ξεκάθαρα τη δραστική µείωση του αριθµού των ∆ήµων και την ενοποίηση των δηµοτικών υπηρεσιών. Ùπωσ τÞνισαν τα µέλη του ∆Σ ΕΒΕΛ µια τέτοια ρύθµιση αφενÞσ θα βοηθήσει οικονοµικά τουσ ∆ήµουσ και αφετέρου θα καταστήσει πιο λειτουργικέσ τισ υπηρεσίεσ τουσ. ΑκÞµα το ΕΒΕΛ έθεσε τουσ προβληµατισµούσ του για το θέµα τησ ίδρυσησ καζίνο, αναφέροντασ Þτι η πÞλη και επαρχία Λευκωσίασ διαθέτει πολλά συγκριτικά πλεονεκτήµατα για να φιλοξενήσει το καζίνο – θέρετρο που σχεδιάζει η κυβέρνηση.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

6 | ∆ΙΕΘΝΗ | financialmirror.com

¶ÔÈ· Ù· Èı·Ó¿ ÛÂÓ¿ÚÈ· ÛÙÔ ∂ÏÏËÓÈÎfi ˙‹ÙËÌ· ¡›ÎÔ˜ ªÈ¯·ËÏ›‰Ë˜ Foreign Exchange Analyst Email: michailidisn@aol.com Μια απÞ τισ πιο κρίσιµεσ εβδοµάδεσ τησ τελευταίασ 5ετίασ αναµένεται να είναι αυτή που διανύουµε για την Ελλάδα, που έχει ξεκινήσει εδώ και ηµέρεσ τον διπλωµατικÞ µαραθώνιο µε στÞχο να πείσει τουσ εταίρουσ Þτι θα προχωρήσει στισ απαραίτητεσ µεταρρυθµίσεισ. ΠροϋπÞθεση, Þµωσ, αποτελεί αφενÞσ να δοθεί περαιτέρω χρÞνοσ και αφετέρου να µην υπάρξει νέο µνηµÞνιο, κάτι που αποτελεί «κÞκκινη γραµµή» για την νέα κυβέρνησή. Το τοπίο είναι θολÞ και οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ προµηνύονται σκληρέσ, Þπου η νέα κυβέρνηση θα δώσει επίσηµα τα πρώτα δείγµατα γραφήσ των προθέσεών τησ, για τισ οποίεσ οι Ευρωπαίοι εταίροι εµφανίζονται προσ το παρÞν επιφυλακτικοί. Οι κίνδυνοι για την Ελλάδα τεράστιοι µε τουσ Γερµανούσ να έχουν ενεργοποιήσει Þλα τα µέσα, θεµιτά και αθέµιτα, και να έχουν βάλει στην κυριολεξία το πιστÞλι στο κρÞταφο τησ νέασ Ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ θέτοντασ τησ το δίληµµα: συµφωνία ή χρεοκοπία. ΑκÞµα µια βάναυση καταπάτηση των αρχών τησ ΕΕ, τησ αλληλεγγύησ, συνεργασίασ και ισονοµίασ. Βεβαίωσ Þλα αυτά είναι αναµενÞµενα απÞ τουσ Γερµανούσ οι οποίοι µασ έχουν συνηθίσει σε τέτοιεσ πολιτικέσ εδώ και 5 χρÞνια που ξέσπασε η κρίση. Το µέγα ερώτηµα είναι ποια κατάληξη θα έχει το ελληνικÞ ζήτηµα. Θα λέγαµε πωσ τρία είναι τα πιθανά σενάρια τησ:

Το πρώτο σενάριο που είναι και το καλÞ (best case scenario) είναι Ελλάδα και Βερολίνο να κάνουν αµοιβαίεσ υποχωρήσεισ. Η Ελλάδα καταρχήν αποδέχεται είτε γραπτώσ είτε µέσω µιασ άτυπησ δέσµευσησ (υπÞσχεσησ) ένα µέροσ του υφιστάµενου µνηµονίου ( ο κ. Βαρουφάκησ είχε µιλήσει για αποδοχή 67% του µνηµονίου) και ταυτÞχρονα καταθέτει ένα σχέδιο µεταρρυθµίσεων το οποίο αναµένεται να καλύψει το κενÞ απÞ την µη αποδοχή του 33% του υφιστάµενου µνηµονίου. Η Ελλάδα ταυτÞχρονα προτείνει σχέδιο γέφυρα µέχρι την 1η Σεπτεµβρίου του 2015, µε στÞχο να εκπληρώσει τÞσο τισ µεταρρυθµίσεισ τησ Þσο και να ετοιµάσει το νέο εθνικÞ σχέδιο τησ το οποίο θα τεθεί για έγκριση στο έκτακτο Eurogroup του Σεπτεµβρίου. ΑπÞ την άλλη οι Γερµανοί σε συνεργασία µε την ΕΚΤ και το ∆ΝΤ θα µεταφέρουν την οποιαδήποτε αξιολÞγηση του υφιστάµενου προγράµµατοσ για τον Σεπτέµβριο. Επίσησ θα επαναφέρουν το τραπεζικÞ καθεστώσ σε φυσιολογικέσ συνθήκεσ επιτρέποντασ στο ΕλληνικÞ δηµÞσιο να καλύψει τισ άµεσεσ ανάγκεσ µέσω τησ έκδοσησ εντÞκων γραµµατίων ενώ θα δοθεί και το πράσινο φωσ για την εκταµίευση τησ επÞµενησ δÞσησ των 7.2 δισ το ερχÞµενο διάστηµα. Το δεύτερο σενάριο που είναι και το βασικÞ (base case scenario) οι Γερµανοί θα προσέλθουν στο Eurogroup µε άγριεσ διαθέσεισ θέτοντασ το δίληµµα take it or leave it στην Ελληνική πλευρά. ΕΚΤ και ∆ΝΤ συµπορεύονται µε τουσ Γερµανούσ, Þπωσ και τα υπÞλοιπα κράτη µέλη τα οποία ωσ συνήθωσ στα Eurogroups έχουν καθαρά διακοσµητικÞ ρÞλο, µια παρουσίαση «γλάστρασ» θα λέγαµε. Η Ελληνική πλευρά απÞ την άλλη παραµένει στισ θέσεισ τησ, δεν αποδέχεται το υφιστάµε-

νο µνηµÞνιο και σε καµία περίπτωση δεν το υπογράφει, το αδιέξοδο παραµένει και η οποιαδήποτε νέα προσπάθεια επίλυσησ του ζητήµατοσ παίρνει παράταση για το νέο Eurogroup Μαρτίου. Η ΕΚΤ συνεχίζει να παρέχει ρευστÞτητα στισ τράπεζεσ µέσω του ELA αλλά αρνείται να εγκρίνει την έκδοση εντÞκων µε αποτέλεσµα να πιεστεί ακÞµα περισσÞτερο η ρευστÞτητα στην αγορά και να µεγαλώνει ασφυκτικά η πίεση εν’ Þψη του Eurogroup Μαρτίου. ΠαρÞλο που το αδιέξοδο παραµένει η σύγκρουση Αθήνασ – Βερολίνου αποφεύγεται και οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ συνεχίζονται µε απώτερο στÞχο να καταλήξουν στο Eurogroup Μαρτίου. Στο τελευταίο σενάριο και χειρÞτερο (worst case scenario) Ελλάδα και Γερµανία προσέρχονται στο Eurogroup µε τισ χειρÞτερεσ προθέσεισ. Η σύγκρουση είναι µετωπική και Γερµανοί, ΕΚΤ και ∆ΝΤ κÞβουν κάθε γέφυρα επικοινωνίασ µε την Ελλάδα. Η ΕΚΤ Þχι µÞνο αρνείται την έκδοση εντÞκων γραµµατίων αλλά αποσύρει και την στήριξη των τραπεζών µέσω του ELA. Προ του κινδύνου bank run η Ελλάδα επιβάλει τραπεζικούσ

∞Ó·ÙÈÌËÌ¤ÓÔ ÙÔ ÂÏ‚ÂÙÈÎfi ÊÚ¿ÁÎÔ ¤Ó·ÓÙÈ ÙÔ˘ Â˘ÚÒ ∞Ï¤ÍË˜ ∫ÈÙÚÔÌËÏ›‰Ë˜ Alpha Bank Cyprus Ltd, Treasury Division Μικρή η διακύµανση του ευρωπαϊκού νοµίσµατοσ έναντι του αµερικανικού δολαρίου την εβδοµάδα που πέρασε, αφού διατηρήθηκε στο κανάλι 1.1300-1.1500. Σε δηλώσεισ προέβη ο επικεφαλήσ τησ τράπεζασ τησ Ελβετίασ (SNB), Thomas Jordan, σύµφωνα µε το Dow Jones Newswires, σχετικά µε την εγκατάλειψη τησ ελάχιστησ ισοτιµίασ των 1.20 φράγκων/Ευρώ, κίνηση η οποία τράνταξε τισ χρηµαταγορέσ. Η εν λÞγω απÞφαση αναµένεται να επηρεάσει την οικονοµία τησ χώρασ, (συρρίκνωση για ένα ή δύο τρίµηνα). Θεωρεί Þτι το φράγκο είναι σαφέστατα ανατιµηµένο στην τρέχουσα ισοτιµία (γύρω στο 1.0500/ευρώ), ενώ άφησε ασχολίαστα ανεπίσηµα δηµοσιεύµατα για διαµÞρφωση νέασ ελάχιστησ ισοτιµίασ Ευρώ/φράγκου στα επίπεδα 1.0500/1.1000. Στισ ΗΠΑ, οι νέεσ θέσεισ εργασίασ ιδιωτικού τοµέα υποχώρησαν τον Ιανουάριο στισ 213,000 σε σχέση µε 253,000 το ∆εκέµβριο. Επίσησ, οι αιτήσεισ για επιδÞµατα ανεργίασ την εβδοµάδα έωσ 31 Ιανουαρίου αυξήθηκαν στισ 278,000 απÞ 267,000 την προηγούµενη εβδοµάδα, εξακολουθώντασ ωστÞσο να διατηρούνται σηµαντικά χαµηλÞτερα του ιστορικού µέσου Þρου (361,800). Εκτιµάται παρÞλα αυτά, Þτι η απασχÞληση στισ ΗΠΑ εξακολουθεί να ενισχύεται, παρασυρÞµενη απÞ την οικονοµική ανάπτυξη. Τέλοσ, ο δείκτησ ανεργίασ αυξήθηκε ελαφρώσ στο 5.7% τον Ιανουάριο, απÞ 5.6% το ∆εκέµβριο. Σε άλλεσ οικονοµικέσ εξελίξεισ στισ ΗΠΑ, οι βιοµηχανικέσ παραγγελίεσ υποχώρησαν σε µηνιαία βάση το ∆εκέµβριο κατά 3.4% έναντι εκτίµησησ για -2.4%, ενώ το εµπορικÞ έλλειµµα διαµορφώθηκε το ∆εκέµβριο στα $46.6δισ. σε σχέση µε έλλειµµα $39.8δισ το Νοέµβριο. Η αύξηση στο εµπορικÞ έλλειµµα ήταν αποτέλεσµα πτώσησ των εξαγωγών (-0.8%) και αύξησησ κατά 2.2% των εισαγωγών. Στην Ευρωζώνη ο δείκτησ τιµών παραγωγού υποχώρησε σε ετήσια βάση το ∆εκέµβριο κατά 2.7%, η µεγαλύτε-

ρη απÞ το ∆εκέµβριο του 2009. Επίσησ, τον ίδιο µήνα οι λιανικέσ πωλήσεισ ενισχύθηκαν σε µηνιαία βάση κατά 0.3% έναντι εκτίµησησ για µηδενική αύξηση, ενώ σε ετήσια βάση ενισχύθηκαν κατά 2.8% (εκτίµηση: 2%). Επίσησ, η ΚοµισιÞν είναι πλέον περισσÞτερο αισιÞδοξη για την πορεία τησ οικονοµίασ στην Ευρωζώνη για την περίοδο 2015-2016, η οποία υπολογίζεται να επηρεαστεί θετικά απÞ την αποδυνάµωση του ευρώ και τη ραγδαία πτώση των τιµών του πετρελαίου. Στισ χειµερινέσ τησ προβλέψεισ η Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή διαβλέπει ανάπτυξη 1.3% το 2015 και 1.9% το 2016 στην οικονοµία τησ Ευρωζώνησ, έναντι προηγούµενων προβλέψεων για 1.1% και 1.7% αντίστοιχα. Στο Ηνωµένο Βασίλειο, η Τράπεζα τησ Αγγλίασ διατήρησε αµετάβλητο το επιτÞκιο τησ στο 0.5%. ΑυτÞ έγινε παρά την ισχυρή οικονοµική ανάκαµψη και την υποχώρηση τησ ανεργίασ, αφού τα τελευταία στοιχεία για τον πληθωρισµÞ καταδεικνύουν Þτι διατηρείται αισθητά χαµηλÞτερα του στÞχου του 2% (υποχώρησε στο 0.5% το ∆εκέµβριο). Τέλοσ, ανακοινώθηκε Þτι διατηρήθηκε αµετάβλητο το ύψοσ του προγράµµατοσ αγοράσ οµολÞγων στισ 375 δισ στερλίνεσ.

περιορισµούσ µε Þρια ανάληψησ µετρητών 200 ευρώ την ηµέρα, απÞ τα ATMs. ΤαυτÞχρονα προχωρά σε µονοµερήσ ενέργειεσ αφού προσ την αδυναµία εκπλήρωσησ των υποχρεώσεων τησ θα κηρύξει στάση πληρωµών εντÞσ ευρώ. Η στάση πληρωµών εντÞσ ευρώ µπορεί να φαντάζει εύκολη αλλά είναι µια απÞλυτα δυσχερήσ διαδικασία για την Ελλάδα και ισοδυναµεί µε σοκ και δέοσ. Η ΕΕ δεν θα δεχθεί στάση πληρωµών εντÞσ ευρώ, η Ευρώπη δεν θα θέλει ένα άρρωστο µέλοσ στην ευρωπαϊκή οικογένεια και πιθανÞτατα σε αυτή την περίπτωση να ξεκινήσουν διαδικασίεσ εξÞδου απÞ το ευρώ αν και αυτÞ σηκώνει µεγάλη συζήτηση αφού δεν υπάρχει θεσµικÞσ τρÞποσ εκδίωξησ µιασ χώρασ απÞ το Ευρώ. Η Ελλάδα σε µια τέτοια περίπτωση θα υποβαθµιστεί εκ νέου σε selective default δηλαδή σε καθεστώσ επιλεκτικήσ χρεοκοπίασ απÞ τουσ οίκουσ αξιολÞγησησ ενώ η τιµωρία των αγορών θα είναι άνευ προηγουµένου. ΤÞσο οι αγορέσ Þσο και Þλοι οι υγιέσ σκεπτÞµενοι αξιωµατούχοι επιθυµούν την επίτευξη συµφωνίασ. Μια ελληνική χρεοκοπία και ίσωσ και εν τέλη έξοδοσ απÞ το Ευρώ θα έχει ανυπολÞγιστεσ συνέπειεσ για την παγκÞσµια οικονοµία. Ùσο και να θέλουν να το παίξουν ήρεµοι οι Γερµανοί εάν η Ελλάδα αποχωρήσει απÞ το ευρώ θα προκληθεί το λεγÞµενο «φαινÞµενο domino», καθώσ µετά την Ελλάδα την πÞρτα τησ εξÞδου θα δουν και άλλεσ χώρεσ. Η Ελλάδα βέβαια δεν µπορεί και δεν πρέπει να εκβιάσει µε Grexit γιατί µπορεί µεν να φοβίζει το domino effect αλλά αν η µπλÞφα δεν περάσει και η Ελλάδα φύγει απÞ το Ευρώ, η εσωτερική υποτίµηση τησ χώρασ θα είναι σε τέτοιο βαθµÞ που θα θυµίζει έντονα Ελλάδα Γερµανικήσ κατοχήσ του 1940.

∏ πÓ‰›· ÍÂ¤Ú·ÛÂ ÙËÓ ∫›Ó· Η Ινδία ανακοίνωσε αλλαγέσ στον τρÞπο υπολογισµού του ΑΕΠ τησ που οδηγούν σε µεγάλη ανοδική αναθεώρηση των ρυθµών ανάπτυξησ τησ τρίτησ µεγαλύτερησ οικονοµίασ τησ Ασίασ. Σύµφωνα µε τη νέα µεθοδολογία, εκτιµάται Þτι οι ρυθµοί ανάπτυξησ τησ ινδικήσ οικονοµίασ ανήλθαν στο 7,5% το δ’ τρίµηνο του 2014. Το ποσοστÞ αυτÞ δίνει στην Ινδία τα σκήπτρα τησ ταχύτερα αναπτυσσÞµενησ µεγάλησ οικονοµίασ του κÞσµου, αφού είναι υψηλÞτερο απÞ τον ρυθµÞ ανάπτυξησ τησ Κίνασ που διαµορφώθηκε στο 7,3% κατά την ίδια περίοδο. Εκτιµάται πλέον Þτι η ινδική οικονοµία θα αναπτυχθεί κατά 7,4% για το οικονοµικÞ έτοσ που λήγει τον Μάρτιο, έναντι 5,5% που προέβλεπε η Κεντρική Τράπεζα τησ Ινδίασ βάσει τησ παλαιάσ µεθοδολογίασ. Εκφράζονται ωστÞσο αµφιβολίεσ για την αξιοπιστία των νέων στοιχείων, καθώσ οικονοµικοί δείκτεσ Þπωσ η βιοµηχανική παραγωγή και τα στοιχεία για το εµπορικÞ ισοζύγιο παραπέµπουν σε βραδύτερα αναπτυσσÞµενη οικονοµία.

™Ù· ¯·ÌËÏ¿ Ë ÈÛÔÙÈÌ›· ÙÔ˘ÚÎÈÎ‹˜ Ï›Ú·˜/‰ÔÏ·Ú›Ô˘ H τουρκική λίρα υποχώρησε αρχέσ τησ βδοµάδασ σε νέο ιστορικÞ χαµηλÞ έναντι του δολαρίου, εν µέσω εκτιµήσεων Þτι η κεντρική τράπεζα θα αναγκαστεί να υποκύψει στισ πιέσεισ του προέδρου Ερντογάν για µείωση των επιτοκίων. Ùπωσ επισηµαίνει η Wall Street Journal, η ισοτιµία τησ λίρασ έναντι του δολαρίου υποχώρησε στισ 2,495 λίρεσ/δολάριο. Το τουρκικÞ νÞµισµα έχει χάσει πάνω 3% απÞ τα µέσα ∆εκεµβρίου, Þταν διαπραγµατευÞταν στισ 2,417 λίρεσ/δολάριο. «Η λίρα πληρώνει το τίµηµα για την απώλεια τησ εµπιστοσύνησ προσ την κεντρική τράπεζα. Η νοµισµατική πολιτική έχει αποκτήσει πολιτικÞ χαρακτήρα» ανέφερε η Renaissance Capital. Υπενθυµίζεται Þτι στισ 20 Ιανουαρίου η κεντρική τράπεζα µείωσε το βασικÞ επιτÞκιο στο 7,75% απÞ 8,25%, δίνοντασ συνέχεια σε µια πολιτική νοµισµατικήσ χαλάρωσησ µετά απÞ πεντάµηνη παύση, ωστÞσο δέχθηκε βολέσ απÞ τον πρÞεδρο Ερντογάν και υπουργούσ τησ κυβέρνησησ που υποστήριξαν Þτι δεν φάνηκε αρκετά επιθετική.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

financialmirror.com | ΕΛΛΑ∆Α | 7

√ ÓÔ‡ÌÂÚÔ 1 Â¯ıÚfi˜ ÙÔ˘ ™Àƒπ∑∞ Â›Ó·È Ë °ÂÚÌ·Ó›· ∑ËÙ¿ ÔÏÂÌÈÎ¤˜ ·Ô˙ËÌÈÒÛÂÈ˜ Î·È ·›˙ÂÈ ÌÂ Ù· Û›ÚÙ· ÙË˜ πÛÙÔÚ›·˜ Αρθρο - φωτιά κατά του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ και του Αλέξη Τσίπρα, δηµοσίευσε η γαλλική Liberation η οποία καταφέρεται κατά τησ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ για το αίτηµά τησ να διεκδικήσει τισ γερµανικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ. Το άρθρο έχει τίτλο: «Ο εχθρÞσ νούµερο 1 για τον ΣΥΡΙΖΑ είναι η Γερµανία» και τονίζει Þτι η Ελλάδα δεν έχει δικαίωµα να ζητά αποζηµιώσεισ για τη ναζιστική κατοχή, αν και δεν αναφέρεται καθÞλου στο δικαιÞτατο αίτηµα για το κατοχικÞ δάνειο. H εφηµερίδα κατηγορεί την Ελλάδα για εθνικιστικέσ εξάρσεισ, ωστÞσο, δείχνει να αγνοεί το πραγµατικÞ χρέοσ που έχει η Γερµανία απέναντι στη χώρα και αφορά πράγµατι το δάνειο που ουδέποτε πληρώθηκε απÞ το Βερολίνο. Το άρθρο λέει συγκεκριµένα: «Υπάρχει µια ηθική υποχρέωση απέναντι στο λαÞ µασ, απέναντι στην Ιστορία, απέναντι σε Þλουσ τουσ λαούσ τησ Ευρώπησ που πολέµησαν και έδωσαν το αίµα τουσ εναντίον του ναζισµού, µια ιστορική υποχρέωση» να ζητήσουµε απÞ τη Γερµανία να πληρώσει 162 δισ ευρώ πολεµικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ. ΒρισκÞµαστε στισ Βερσαλίεσ το 1919; ΒρισκÞµαστε στο ΠÞστνταµ το 1945; ΚαθÞλου. ΒρισκÞµαστε στην Αθήνα το 2015 και η δήλωση έγινε στισ προγραµµατικέσ δηλώσεισ του Αλέξη Τσίπρα του νέου πρωθυπουργού τησ Ελλάδασ. 70 χρÞνια µετά το τέλοσ του Β’ Παγκοσµίου Πολέµου και περίπου 60 χρÞνια µετά την υπογραφή τησ Συµφωνίασ τησ Ρώµησ, 16 χρÞνια µετά την δηµιουργία του ευρώ, ένασ ηγέτησ που γεννήθηκε το 1974, την επαύριο τησ πτώσησ τησ χούντασ, δεν βρίσκει τίποτα καλύτερο για να εξηγήσει τισ δυσκολίεσ τησ χώρασ του απÞ το να δείξει µε το δάχτυλο την Γερµανία ωσ υπεύθυνη. Ο Τσίπρασ δεν παρέλειψε να αναφερθεί στον ευρωβουλευτή του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Μανώλη Γλέζο, 92 ετών, ο οποίοσ Þταν ήταν 19 ετών είχε βγάλει τη γερµανική σηµαία απÞ την ΑκρÞπολη. ΠρÞκειται για µια στρατηγική έντασησ που πιστεύαµε Þτι είχε οριστικά εγκαταληφθεί στην ευρωπαϊκή ήπειρο. Για να είµαστε ειλικρινείσ αυτή η γερµανοφοβική ρητορική δεν εκπλήσσει στην παρούσα συγκυρία. Η Ελλάδα µασ έχει συνηθίσει µε πυρετώδη ξεσπάσµατα εθνικισµού και ξενοφοβίασ τα οποία επιτρέπουν να καταπνίγουν κάθε κριτική εναντίον των ελίτ που διοικούν λανθασµένα τη χώρα. ∆εν είναι τυχαίο αν το αφήγηµα τησ σύγχρονησ Ελλάδασ είναι το αφήγηµα του θύµατοσ: θύµα των Οθωµανών, των ξένων δυνάµεων κατοχήσ (Βρετανία, Γαλλία, Ιταλία, Γερµανία), τησ Τουρκίασ, των ναζί, των Ηνωµένων Πολιτειών (εµφύλιοσ και µετά χούντα), των αγορών, τησ Ευρώπησ, τησ

µανικά τα περισσÞτερα. Και κυρίωσ, να µην ξεχνά Þτι η Ευρώπη χτίστηκε πάνω στη συγνώµη: Ùλεσ οι ευρωπαϊκέσ χώρεσ αρνήθηκαν -ήδη απÞ το 1953- να απαιτήσουν πολεµικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ ώστε να µην επαναλάβουν το λάθοσ τησ Συµφωνίασ των Βερσαλιών. Η Γερµανία σίγουρα είναι υπεύθυνη γιατί έπραξε το µέγιστο έγκληµα αλλά το πλήρωσε ακριβά και το πληρώνει ακÞµη. ΑκÞµη πληρώνει την επανένωση τησ Ανατολικήσ Γερµανίασ µÞνη τησ.

ŒÓ· Û˘ÁÓÒÌË ÛÙÔ˘˜ ŒÏÏËÓÂ˜

√ ∆Û›Ú·˜ ÌfiÏÈ˜ ÔÚÎ›ÛÙËÎÂ ‹ÁÂ ÛÙÔ ™ÎÔÂ˘Ù‹ÚÈÔ ÙË˜ ∫·ÈÛ·ÚÈ·Ó‹˜ fiÔ˘ 200 ·ÓÙÈÛÙ·ÛÈ·ÎÔ› ÎÔÌÌÔ˘ÓÈÛÙ¤˜ ÂÎÙÂÏ¤ÛÙËÎ·Ó ·fi ÙÔ˘˜ Ó·˙› ÙËÓ 1Ë ª·›Ô˘ 1944 Γερµανίασ. Ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ είναι το µεγάφωνο άλλων τοπικών κοµµάτων. Απαιτώντασ απÞ το Βερολίνο πολεµικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ απλώσ επαναλαµβάνει Þσα έλεγαν τÞσα χρÞνια τα πιο εθνικιστικά κοµµάτια τησ Ν∆ και του ΠΑΣΟΚ απÞ το 2010, τα οποία ωστÞσο δεν κατάφεραν να πείσουν τισ τÞτε κυβερνήσεισ να φτάσουν ωσ το επίσηµο αίτηµα. ΑυτÞ Þµωσ δεν δίστασε να το κάνει ο Αλέξησ Τσίπρασ. Για να δώσει τον τÞνο, ο ΠρωθυπουργÞσ, αµέσωσ µÞλισ ορκίστηκε, πήγε στο Σκοπευτήριο τησ Καισαριανήσ Þπου 200 αντιστασιακοί κοµµουνιστέσ εκτελέστηκαν απÞ τουσ ναζί την 1η Μαίου 1944 προκειµένου να αποδείξει ποιÞσ είναι ο εχθρÞσ. Η απαίτηση πολεµικών αποζηµιώσεων δεν είναι λοιπÞν έκπληξη εκτÞσ για εκείνουσ που ήλπιζαν Þτι η νίκη του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ θα έφερνε µια πολιτισµική αλλαγή. Ο Τσίπρασ δείχνοντασ ποιÞσ είναι ο εξωτερικÞσ εχθρÞσ και η αιτία των ελληνικών προβληµάτων, πέτυχε αυτÞ που ήθελε: 70% των Ελλήνων τον στηρίζουν στη σκληρή διαπραγµάτευση που κάνει µε τουσ Ευρωπαίουσ, περήφανοσ για την «ανάκτηση τησ εθνικήσ περηφάνειασ». ΑυτÞ το εθνικιστικÞ ξέσπασµα δεν σταµατάει εδώ. Ο σύµµαχÞσ του Πάνοσ Καµµένοσ, υπουργÞσ Αµυνασ και ηγέτησ των ΑΝΕΛ -ένα κÞµµα τησ ριζοσπαστικήσ ∆εξιάσ ευρωφοβικÞ, ξενÞφοβο, οµÞφοβο- έκανε επίδειξη προκλητικÞτητασ απέναντι στην Τουρκία πετώντασ, στισ 30 Iανουαρίου, µε τουσ επικεφαλήσ του στρατού, στη νησάκι Ιµια, το οποίο βρίσκεται σε απÞσταση 7 χλµ απÞ την ακτή τησ

Τουρκίασ στα ∆ωδεκάνησα για να πετάξει ένα στεφάνι στη µνήµη των στρατιωτικών που σκοτώθηκαν σε ένα δυστύχηµα ελικοπτέρου το 1996. Ασ σηµειώσουµε Þτι εκείνη την εποχή Ελλάδα και Τουρκία παρ’ ολίγον να εµπλακούν σε πÞλεµο Þταν η Αγκυρα αµφισβήτησε την ελληνική κυριαρχία στην ακατοίκητη βραχονησίδα. Η Τουρκία δεν ικανοποιήθηκε µε αυτή την κίνηση που θεωρήθηκε επιθετική την ώρα που οι σχέσεισ των δύο χωρών είναι ειρηνικέσ. Εποµένωσ η στρατηγική του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ Þτι η Ελλάδα είναι µια «χώρα σε πολιορκία» δείχνει να είναι µια στρατηγική που προέκυψε µετά απÞ ώριµη σκέψη. Κατά βάθοσ το ελληνικÞ αίτηµα πολεµικών αποζηµιώσεων δεν έχει ιστορικά και πολιτικά κανένα νÞηµα. Καταρχήν, γιατί έκανε αυτÞ το αίτηµα 70 χρÞνια µετά τα γεγονÞτα; Είναι περίεργο που τÞσεσ ελληνικέσ κυβερνήσεισ οι οποίεσ εξελέγησαν δηµοκρατικά µετά το τέλοσ του εµφυλίου πολέµου το 1949 δεν κατέθεσαν ποτέ τέτοιο αίτηµα. Επίσησ, ακÞµη κι αν η Ελλάδα έπαιρνε τισ πολεµικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ πώσ θα απέφευγε την χρεοκοπία; Αν ξανακάνουµε την ιστορία πρέπει να την ξανακάνουµε πλήρωσ. Ùµωσ, η ιστορία δεν δίνει δίκιο σε αυτή τη χώρα, ιδίωσ αν σκεφτεί κανείσ Þτι η Ελλάδα πήρε ευρωπαϊκά κονδύλια που αντιστοιχούν στο 4% του ΑΕΠ τησ εδώ και 30 χρÞνια, τα οποία χρησίµευσαν απλώσ να τρέφουν την ντÞπια πελατοκρατεία. Η Αθήνα δεν πρέπει να ξεχνάει επίσησ Þτι τα ευρωπαϊκά κονδύλια είναι γερ-

Αλλά Þµωσ, γιατί οι Έλληνεσ πρέπει να σταµατήσουν στισ απαιτήσεισ για πολεµικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ µÞνο απÞ τη Γερµανία; Γιατί η Ελλάδα δεν ζητάει επανÞρθωση απÞ τουσ Τούρκουσ, µετά απÞ 4 αιώνεσ κατοχήσ; Ασ µη µιλήσουµε για τουσ Βενετούσ, τουσ Γάλλουσ, τουσ Ρωµαίουσ που Þλοι κατείχαν την Ελλάδα για ένα διάστηµα. Γιατί αν αυτÞ συµβεί µε την Γερµανία τÞτε ανοίγει η πÞρτα για απαιτήσεισ στην Ευρώπη και σε Þλο τον κÞσµο. Η Γαλλία, για παράδειγµα, δεν έχει ποτέ πληρώσει αποζηµιώσεισ στην Αφρική ή στην Ινδοκίνα για την κατοχή, η Σουηδία δεν έχει ποτέ πληρώσει αποζηµιώσεισ για τον ΠÞλεµο των 30 Ετών κλπ. Φαίνεται έτσι πÞσο γελοίο είναι το ελληνικÞ αίτηµα. ΑυτÞ δεν σηµαίνει Þτι δεν οφείλεται ένα συγνώµη στουσ Έλληνεσ. Οπωσ το έχω ήδη εξηγήσει η ευρωζώνη έκανε πολύ σοβαρÞ λάθοσ που δέχτηκε την Ελλάδα στουσ κÞλπουσ τησ χωρίσ να την ελέγχει περισσÞτερο. Η ευρωζώνη πρέπει λοιπÞν να παραδεχθεί το λάθοσ τησ και να πληρώσει µε τον ένα ή άλλο τρÞπο το τίµηµα. Η κυβέρνηση ΣΥΡΙΖΑ µπορεί να φέρει αυτÞ το πολιτικÞ επιχείρηµα στη διαπραγµάτευση και αυτÞ είναι διαφορετικÞ απÞ το να ζητάει πολεµικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ. Πρέπει Þµωσ να πούµε Þτι αυτή η απαίτηση έχει τουλάχιστον ένα Þφελοσ. Μασ υπενθυµίζει Þτι η ειρήνη δεν είναι εγγυηµένη στην Ευρώπη, αντίθετα. Πάντα θα βρίσκουµε έναν ηγέτη που επειδή βρίσκεται σε δύσκολη θέση θα είναι έτοιµοσ να παίξει µε τα σπίρτα τησ Ιστορίασ για να ξανανάψει παλιέσ έχθρεσ που πιστεύαµε Þτι είχαν ξεχαστεί (δεσ τι έγινε στην Ουγγαρία). Ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ µασ προσφέρει το παράδειγµα για να καταλάβουµε Þτι χωρίσ αυτή τη µηχανή συµβιβασµών που είναι η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση, τα παλιά πάθη εκδίκησησ µπορούν ακÞµη να µασ οδηγήσουν στο χειρÞτερο. Ασ µην ξεχνάµε Þτι ο Α ΠαγκÞσµιοσ ΠÞλεµοσ ξεκίνησε απÞ τη µικρή Βοσνία».

¢ÂÓ ı· ˘¿ÚÍÂÈ Û˘ÌÊˆÓ›· ∂∂ - ∂ÏÏ¿‰·˜ ÁÈ· ÙÔ ¯Ú¤Ô˜ Την εκτίµηση Þτι δεν θα υπάρξει τελική συµφωνία ΕΕΕλλάδασ για το χρέοσ, αυτή την εβδοµάδα, εξέφρασε η ΚοµισιÞν, σηµειώνοντασ Þτι έχει ξεκινήσει γύροσ εντατικών επαφών οι οποίεσ ωστÞσο, µέχρι στιγµήσ, δεν έχουν αποφέρει καρπούσ. Σήµερα στισ Βρυξέλλεσ, συναντώνται οι υπουργοί Οικονοµικών τησ ευρωζώνησ µε θέµα την χρηµατοδÞτηση τησ Ελλάδασ, ενώ την εποµένη θα πραγµατοποιηθεί η Σύνοδοσ Κορυφήσ. «Αυτά είναι τα (δυο) επÞµενα βήµατα, αλλά προσ το παρÞν έχουµε χαµηλέσ προσδοκίεσ για την επίτευξη τελικήσ συµφω-

νίασ σήµερα (στο Eurogroup) ή κατά την Σύνοδο Κορυφήσ. Φυσικά διεξάγονται εντατικέσ επαφέσ µεταξύ του προέδρου τησ ΚοµισιÞν, του πρωθυπουργού Α.Τσίπρα και άλλων παικτών που εµπλέκονται στην ευρωζώνη… Αλλά µέχρι αυτÞ το σηµείο, Þλεσ αυτέσ οι επαφέσ δεν έχουν αποδώσει και πολλούσ καρπούσ» δήλωσε εκπρÞσωποσ τησ Ευρωπαϊκήσ Επιτροπήσ, κατά την διάρκεια συνέντευξησ τύπου. Οι διαπραγµατεύσεισ που διεξάγονται µε την Ελλάδα είναι εντατικέσ και το µÞνο σχέδιο για το οποίο εργάζεται είναι Þπωσ τονίζει - «παραµονή τησ Ελλάδασ στο ευρώ». Έτσι, µε

βάση και τισ νέεσ δηλώσεισ, κοµβική ηµεροµηνία για µια συµφωνία για την χώρα φαίνεται πωσ είναι η 16 Φεβρουαρίου, οπÞτε θα διεξαχθεί το τακτικÞ Eurogroup. Σύµφωνα µε δηµοσιεύµατα η ΚοµισιÞν επεξεργάζεται σχέδιο εξάµηνησ παράτασησ για την Ελλάδα, αναδιοργάνωσησ τησ τρÞικασ και χαµηλÞτερο στÞχο για πρωτογενέσ πλεÞνασµα 1,5%-2%. Σύµφωνα µε τισ ίδιεσ πληροφορίεσ, η ΕΚΤ θα αποδεχθεί ξανά ωσ εχέγγυα (collaterals) τα ελληνικά οµÞλογα εάν επιτευχθεί συµφωνία.

Bild: ª‹ˆ˜ ÔÈ ŒÏÏËÓÂ˜ ‰ÈÎ·ÈÔ‡ÓÙ·È Ú¿ÁÌ·ÙÈ ·Ô˙ËÌÈÒÛÂÈ˜; «Μήπωσ οι Ελληνεσ δικαιούνται πράγµατι αποζηµιώσεισ;» διερωτάται η γερµανική εφηµερίδα Bild, αφιερώνοντασ άρθρο τησ στην απαίτηση τησ ελληνικήσ κυβέρνησησ για την καταβολή των αποζηµιώσεων για το Β’ ΠαγκÞσµιο ΠÞλεµο. Το άρθρο ξεκινά µε τη θέση Þτι ο Έλληνασ πρωθυπουργÞσ Αλέξησ Τσίπρασ θέλει να χρηµατοδοτήσει το κοινωνικÞ πρÞγραµµά του µε τα δισεκατοµµύρια απÞ τισ γερµανικέσ αποζηµιώσεισ.

Η Bild κάνει µία ιστορική αναδροµή στο 1960 οπÞτε η Γερµανία υπέγραψε µία συνθήκη µε την Ελλάδα για «κλείσιµο» του θέµατοσ και σύµφωνα µε την οποία η Γερµανία θα έπρεπε να καταβάλει 115 εκ. µάρκα. ΩστÞσο, δεν συµπεριελήφθη ένα αναγκαστικÞ δάνειο ύψουσ 476 εκ. µάρκων του 1942 προσ χάριν του ναζιστικού καθεστώτοσ και το οποίο δεν εξοφλήθηκε προσ την Αθήνα. Γι αυτÞ και η Ελλάδα φωνάζει για αυτά τα 11 δισ. ευρώ.

∆ικαιούται η Αθήνα τα χρήµατα; Η γερµανική κυβέρνηση λέει: Ùχι. «Το ζήτηµα µε τισ αποζηµιώσεισ έχει κλείσει απÞ το 1960. 70 χρÞνια µετά τον πÞλεµο έχουν χάσει το δικαίωµά τουσ για αποζηµιώσεισ», εξηγεί το γερµανικÞ υπουργείο Οικονοµικών. «Αν η Ελλάδα επιβληθεί µε τισ διεκδικήσεισ τησ, µπορεί οι αξιώσεισ τησ σύµφωνα µε το γερµανικÞ υπουργείο Οικονοµικών να είναι υψηλÞτερεσ.

ΧΡΗΜΑ&ΑΓΟΡΑ

11 ΦΕΒΡΟΥΑΡΙΟΥ, 2015

8 | ΕΙ∆ΗΣΕΙΣ | financialmirror.com

Hennessy ÁÈ· ÌÈ· ÌÔÓ·‰ÈÎ‹ ·ÔÏ·˘ÛÙÈÎ‹ ÂÌÂÈÚ›· Μια ξεχωριστή “εµπειρία Hennessy” έζησαν τα µέλη του Παγκύπριου Συνδέσµου ΟινοχÞων, στουσ πολυτελείσ χώρουσ του ξενοδοχείου Amathus στη ΛεµεσÞ, σε µια εντυπωσιακή τελετή που διοργάνωσε η εταιρεία Φώτοσ Φωτιάδησ ∆ιανοµείσ Λτδ, επίσηµοσ αντιπρÞσωποσ του κονιάκ Hennessy στην Κύπρο. Οι προσκεκληµένοι είχαν την ευκαιρία να δοκιµάσουν και να απολαύσουν 2 διαφορετικά είδη απÞ την γκάµα του κονιάκ Hennessy. Για καλωσÞρισµα προσφέρθηκαν 4 είδη κοκτέιλ αναµεµειγµένα µε το Hennessy VS και µετά απÞ ένα γαστρονοµικÞ γεύµα οι παρευρισκÞµενοι έζησαν την απÞλυτη γευστική εµπειρία του Hennessy ΧΟ, συνοδευÞµενο µε σοκολάτα και πούρα. Η εταιρεία Φώτοσ Φωτιάδησ ∆ιανοµείσ Λτδ διαθέτει Þλη την γκάµα των προϊÞντων του Hennessy: Hennessy VS, Hennessy Fine de cognac, Hennessy XO, Hennessy Paradis, καθώσ επίσησ και το εξαιρετικήσ ποιÞτητασ Richard. Για περισσÞτερεσ πληροφορίεσ µπορείτε να επικοινωνήσετε στο τηλ. 22471111.

¶ÈÛÙÔÔ›ËÛË ISO ÛÂ ı¤Ì·Ù· ÂÓ¤ÚÁÂÈ·˜ ÁÈ· ÙËÓ ∂ÏÏËÓÈÎ‹ Την πιστοποίηση τησ µε το ∆ιεθνέσ ΠρÞτυπο ISO 50001, πέτυχε η Ελληνική Τράπεζα. Η πιστοποίηση για την τράπεζα ήρθε µέσα απÞ συνεχείσ προσπάθειεσ στα ζητήµατα ενεργειακήσ διαχείρισησ. Η πιστοποίησή αυτή, σύµφωνα µε το πρÞτυπο ISO 50001, διασφαλίζει τη δέσµευσή για αποτελεσµατική και αποδοτική χρήση τησ ενέργειασ.Το σύστηµα έχει ωσ πεδίο δράσησ ολÞκληρο τον Ùµιλο τησ Ελληνικήσ Τράπεζασ µε σηµαντικÞ παράγοντα την ευαισθητοποίηση, τη συνεισφορά και γενικÞτερα την εµπλοκή Þλου του προσωπικού. Απευθύνεται σε Þλεσ τισ υπηρεσίεσ και τα κτήριά τησ, ανεξαρτήτωσ µεγέθουσ και κλάδου, και τουσ προσφέρει µία συστηµατική προσέγγιση για τη διαρκή βελτίωση των επιδÞσεών τουσ σε θέµατα ενέργειασ, συµπεριλαµβανοµένησ τησ ενεργειακήσ απÞδοσησ, χρήσησ και κατανάλωσησ. Η συνεχήσ εφαρµογή ορθολογιστικήσ και συνεπούσ ενεργειακήσ διαχείρισησ, αποφέρει σηµαντικά οφέλη, Þπωσ τη µείωση του ενεργειακού κÞστουσ, την καθιέρωση ορθών ενεργειακών πρακτικών και τη µείωση των εκποµπών αερίου του Θερµοκηπίου.

™ÙËÓ ∫‡ÚÔ ÔÈ Porsche Cayenne GTS Î·È plug-in Hybrid Στην Κύπρο βρίσκονται δύο εντυπωσιακέσ εκδÞσεισ απÞ τη γκάµα του Porsche Cayenne. ΠρÞκειται για την θηριώδεσ GTS και την τεχνολογικά προηγµένη Plug-In Hybrid. ∆ύο µοντέλα που προστέθηκαν στη γκάµα τησ τελευταίασ γενιάσ τησ Cayenne που έκανε την εµφάνιση τησ πριν µερικούσ µήνεσ. Η ολοκαίνουρια plug-in υβριδική έκδοση χρησιµοποιεί το ίδιο παράλληλο plug-in hybrid σύστηµα µε την Panamera και αποτελείται απÞ ένα ηλεκτρικÞ κινητήρα 95 ίππων και ένα 3λιτρο V6 turbo κινητήρα βενζίνησ. Η νέα Cayenne GTS είναι εφοδιασµένη µε τον ολοκαίνουριο V6 twin-turbo των 3,6 λίτρων. ΠρÞκειται για τον ίδιο κινητήρα που χρησιµοποιεί και η Cayenne S µÞνο που µε τισ κατάλληλεσ ρυθµίσεισ η ιπποδύναµη έχει αυξηθεί κατά 20 ίππουσ και η ροπή κατά 50 Nm. Οι ίπποι φθάνουν τουσ 440 µε τη µέγιστη ροπή να αγγίζει τα 600 Nm. Φτάνει τα εκατÞ χιλιÞµετρα απÞ στάση σε 5,2 δευτερÞλεπτα ενώ η τελική τησ ταχύτητα είναι τησ τάξησ των 262 χιλιοµέτρων την ώρα.Η νέα GTS τοποθετείται ανάµεσα απÞ την S και Turbo και διαθέτει νέα σπορ εξάτµιση και το σύστηµα ενεργήσ ανάρτησησ PASM (Porsche Active Suspension Management), µεγαλύτερα φρένα και χαµηλωµένο αµάξωµα.

∂·Ó¿ÛÙ·ÛË ÛÙË Û›ÙÈÛË ‚ÚÂÊÒÓ ÌÂ ÙÔ ÌÈÌÂÚfi Calma Ο Ùµιλοσ Μητρικού Θηλασµού τησ Medela που απÞ το 1961 και µέσα απÞ εντατικέσ επιστηµονικέσ έρευνεσ, υποστηρίζει τισ µητέρεσ κατά τη διάρκεια τησ εµπειρίασ τουσ µε τον µητρικÞ θηλασµÞ και παρέχει µια ολοκληρωµένη σειρά προϊÞντων και υπηρεσιών ώστε να κάνει το µητρικÞ θηλασµÞ ευκολÞτερο, παρουσιάζει το βραβευµένο µπιµπερÞ Calma. Είναι γνωστÞ πωσ Þταν µία µητέρα δεν θηλάζει αποκλειστικά µε το στήθοσ αλλά δίνει στο µωρÞ τησ το µητρικÞ γάλα και µε µπιµπερÞ, το µωρÞ ενδέχεται να συνηθίσει στην ευκολία τησ ροήσ του µπιµπερÞ και λίγο αργÞτερα να απαρνηθεί το στήθοσ. Η Medela έρχεται να δώσει τη λύση µε το µοναδικÞ αυτÞ µπιµπερÞ! Βρείτε το µπιµπερÞ Medela Calma, την εναλλακτική λύση για τισ µητέρεσ που επιθυµούν να σιτίσουν τα βρέφη τουσ µε µητρικÞ γάλα, στα φαρµακεία και στα παιδικά καταστήµατα New Baby City, Mothercare και Mamatoto. Τα προϊÞντα Medela εισάγονται στην Κύπρο απÞ την Marathon Trading, ΛεωφÞροσ Κιλκίσ 35, 2234 Λατσιά, Λευκωσία, Τηλ. 22.89.95.00. Πληροφορίεσ www.marathontrading.com

ŒÚÁÔ Ù¤¯ÓË˜ ÙÔ˘ π. ∫ÈÛÛÔÓ¤ÚÁË ÛÙÔ Caffe Nero ŒÁÎˆÌË˜ Ακριβώσ ένα µήνα µετά την έναρξη τησ λειτουργίασ του, το Caffe Nero στην Έγκωµη φέρνει στουσ πελάτεσ του µια ευχάριστη έκπληξη µε την ανάρτηση του πίνακα «Η Γέννηση τησ Αφροδίτησ» απÞ τον διάσηµο Κύπριο καλλιτέχνη Ιωάννη Κισσονέργη. Ο Ιωάννησ Κισσονέργησ είναι ένασ απÞ τουσ πατέρεσ τησ σύγχρονησ κυπριακήσ τέχνησ και η συµβολή του στην εξέλιξή τησ ήταν καταλυτική. Οι πίνακεσ του Ιωάννη Κισσονέργη έχουν αναγνωριστεί ωσ µοναδικά κοµµάτια τησ κυπριακήσ τέχνησ και έχουν συµπεριληφθεί στην «Κυπριακή Συλλογή» στη Λεβέντειο Πινακοθήκη. Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί, Þτι ήταν ο πρώτοσ Κύπριοσ καλλιτέχνησ που χρησιµοποίησε την τεχνική τησ υδατογραφίασ. Το έργο του επικεντρώνεται στη λεπτοµέρεια, στισ εκλεπτισµένεσ γραµµέσ και στισ απαλέσ αποχρώσεισ. Ο πίνακάσ του «Η Γέννηση τησ Αφροδίτησ» αποτελούσε µουσειακÞ έκθεµα και αγοράστηκε σε πρÞσφατη δηµοπρασία απÞ τον Οίκο ∆ηµοπρασιών Ψαθάρη. Απεικονίζει τη ρωµαϊκή θεά του έρωτα και τησ οµορφιάσ που µεταφέρεται σε ένα κέλυφοσ, ωσ µια πλήρωσ ώριµη γυναίκα, απÞ τη θάλασσα µέχρι την Πάφο στην Κύπρο. Το Caffe Nero έχει θέσει σίγουρα τον πήχη ψηλά και δίνει µια νÞτα κοµψÞτητασ και έµπνευσησ στον χώρο των Café.

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∏ Microsoft Î·È Ë Ralliton ÛÙËÚ›˙Ô˘Ó ÙÔ Hope for Children Στο πλευρÞ του Μη Κυβερνητικού Οργανισµού (ΜΚΟ) “Hope For Children” UNCRC Policy Center βρέθηκαν οι εταιρείεσ Microsoft Κύπρου και Ralliton, προσφέροντασ δωρεάν λογισµικÞ καθώσ και εκπαίδευση του προσωπικού του Οργανισµού, αξίασ 35 χιλιάδων ευρώ. Το “Hope for Children” είναι ο πρώτοσ ΜΚΟ στην Κύπρο που εγκατέστησε το λογισµικÞ Office 365 στο πλαίσιο του ευρύτερου προγράµµατοσ Κοινωνικήσ Προσφοράσ τησ Microsoft για δωρεάν εγκατάσταση λογισµικών στουσ ΜΚΟ παγκÞσµια. ΑπÞ την έναρξη του προγράµµατοσ “Cyber Grants” τον Οκτώβριο του 2013, η Microsoft Κύπρου πρÞσφερε στουσ ΜΚΟ που δραστηριοποιούνται στην Κύπρο λογισµικά αξίασ 750 χιλιάδων ευρώ. ΑναφερÞµενη στην στήριξη του Hope for Children, η Citizenship Lead τησ Microsoft Κύπρου κα Laura Anne Ker-Lindsay, δήλωσε: «Η αξιοποίηση τησ τεχνολογίασ προσ Þφελοσ του κοινωνικού συνÞλου βρίσκεται στο επίκεντρο τησ φιλοσοφίασ κοινωνικήσ προσφοράσ τησ Microsoft Κύπρου».

February 11 - 17, 2015

financialmirror.com | COMMENT | 17

Cheating Customers… and a Recipe for Romance… Occasional correspondent and dear friend Charalambous writes: “Your report in this week’s Cyprus Gourmet on a diner’s quarter of a million pound bill draws attention to the significance of a decimal point and also the importance of checking the bill before paying. I had a similar experience a few days ago. After lunch with my granddaughter at a fairly fast food eatery in Limassol, I was presented with a bill at the checkout which seemed a bit steep. With only the briefest scrutiny and not a word from the cashier, our bill was promptly reduced to less than half, which saved us from paying for a few rather pricey pizzas which we hadn’t had. More than the error itself (perhaps fat finger on the computer), I was taken by the insouciance of the cashier, who gave the impression this was an everyday occurrence”. “Mistakes” are one thing. Deliberately loading a bill is another. Sadly, it goes on everywhere. Overcharging was a house custom at a London dining club I belonged to some years ago. It was called The Wig and Pen Club and was founded by one Dick Brennan, known then for sailing the Atlantic in the 1950s in a replica of the Pilgrim Fathers’ 1620 “Mayflower”. He never held his staff to account for “extras” added to bills. One night I was entertaining two Japanese visitors to dinner and we observed some Americans at a nearby table were complaining Effusive or excessive service loudly about being over-charged. When my bill arrived, I notice that it, can mask inflations of the bill… too, had been loaded. Anxious to avoid a scene and loss of face, I paid up. This was sad, really, because the Wig & Pen was fascinatingly housed in one of the few buildings in Fleet Street to escape the Great Fire of London in 1666 and was always full of interesting people. Great names of Fleet Street adorned the bar into mid-afternoon. The food was good, too. A Cypriot restaurateur, whom I knew well, said to me one day: “Sure I overcharge tourists – they got plenty haven’t they?” and another told me: “We got two prices, one for locals, one for foreigners”. Yes, back then I was green and I got ripped off, until I learned a bit of Greek and if things looked problematic I would make it plain (a) I was resident and (b) a journalist. Nowadays, getting back at the unscrupulous is easier than it was. You can use social media to go public with your experience, or go on to a website such as “Trip Advisor”. Or you can join a small, exclusive club, you can write to the Cyprus Gourmet. Yes, a few people do write to me. The interesting thing is that over the years I have been writing in the press here, only one, just one, correspondent was a Cypriot. All the rest were foreign.

Patrick Skinner

Happy St. Valentine’s Day I wonder how many of my readers will be taking St. Valentine’s Day seriously and either going out with their loved for a meal, or cooking one, in the cause of romance? This begs the question… are there any aphrodisiac foods? The answer most writers give is “No”. But, the right

meal can be a wonderful item of leverage, so to speak. In her delightful book “An Alphabet for Gourmets”, the celebrated American writer M.F.K. Fisher tackled various aspects of food and amour. She considers, under “W – for Wanton”, that a lady would stand a good chance if she served a prospect with this meal… “Good Scotch and water for him, and a very dry Martini for me. A hot soup made of equal parts of clam juice, chicken broth, and dry white wine, heated just to the simmer. A light curry of shrimps or crayfish tails. The fish must be peeled raw, soaked in rich milk, and drained, and the sauce must be made of this milk, and the fish poached for at best six minutes in the delicately flavoured liquid. This is a reliable trick. Rice for the curry, and a bland green salad - that is, with a plain French dressing containing more than its fair share of oil. A dessert based on chilled cooked fruits, with a seemingly innocent sauce made of honey, whole cinnamon, and brandy, poured over and around them at boiling point and allowed to chill”. Personally, amour or not, this dinner would suit me fine, any night of the year. The rest of the book by this lady of several passions (food and alcohol were just two) is a treasure of observation, opinion and fine written English. This quote from a well-intentioned Email doesn’t reach that standard: “Domus will be offering a romantic way to celebrate with your sweetheart over a candle diner in fine dining style!!!” However you choose to enjoy yourself this Saturday, have a lovely time.

Who was St. Valentine? One suggestion is that he was a Roman martyred for refusing to give up his Christian faith. Other historians hold that St. Valentine was a temple priest jailed for defiance during the reign of Claudius. Whoever he was, Valentine really existed because archaeologists have unearthed a Roman catacomb and an ancient church dedicated to Saint Valentine. In 496 AD Pope Gelasius marked February 14th as a celebration in honor of his martyrdom. The first representation of Saint Valentine appeared in The Nuremberg Chronicle, a great illustrated book printed in 1493. Alongside a woodcut portrait of him, the text states that Valentinus was a Roman priest martyred during the reign of Claudius the Goth [Claudius II]. Since he was caught marrying Christian couples and aiding any Christians who were being persecuted under Emperor Claudius in Rome, when helping them was considered a crime, Valentinus was arrested and imprisoned. Claudius took a liking to this prisoner - until Valentinus made a strategic error: he tried to convert the Emperor - whereupon he was condemned to death. He was beaten with clubs and stoned and finally beheaded outside the Flaminian Gate in around 269 AD.

How do YOU feel today? Hardly a day goes by that I don’t get an Email or phone call from a “research” company asking what I think about a recent purchase and the service encountered in buying it. It seems rude to cursorily dismiss the caller, but, inveigled into responding you can be tied up for as long as 20 minutes. Thus, I shuddered when I read this item in “Caterer” magazine… Expedia is to introduce a new feedback element to its platform, allowing guests to express their satisfaction or dismay as soon as they’ve checked in to a hotel. Currently being rolled out in the US, the new system sends a notification to a guest who has booked through Expedia portals as soon as they have checked in asking how they are feeling. The guest is presented with a simple choice between happy and sad, with the results fed back in real time to the hotel. If this happens to me I shall (a) check if there is another hotel nearby and (b) go to it. My fault for making a booking through Expedia. Send me your news! To be published in Cyprus Gourmet, here and on-line. Email: editor@eastward-ho.com

Valentine’s offers at Louis Hotels Louis Hotels has introduced special offers for the Valentine’s weekend that include a romantic break, as well as relaxing two days away from the hustle and bustle of everyday life. The Royal Apollonia in Limassol has accommodation at 79 euros per person in a superior room, with dinner, breakfast and a bottle of wine. The Royal Spa and its internal pool are also available, as well as a 25% discount on spa services and

a 15% discount on products. In Paphos, the recently refurbished Louis Phaethon Beach has an all-inclusive package of 59 euros per person, while in Nicosia, the Hilton Park offering is at 77.50 euros per person, with a special dinner menu on Saturday night. For information and reservations visit www.louishotels.com

February 11 - 17, 2015

18 | WORLD MARKETS | financialmirror.com

Can Putin be stopped? By Oren Laurent President, Banc De Binary

As the violence between Russia and Ukraine escalates, political battle lines are becoming more deeply entrenched – not only between Russia and the West, but also between the United States and the various European countries. Can external involvement solve the crisis diplomatically? And is there another choice? As it currently stands, over 5,000 have been killed in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine after Russia provided armed support to separatist groups and sent its own troops across the border. The crisis poses a risk to European stability and is unsettling world leaders who previously sought to better relations with Russia and work with the global power on topics of common interest such as a nuclear Iran. While Russian President Putin alleges that the conflict is the result of America and its allies trying “to impose their will” after the Cold War, it looks like Western interference

may be necessary to resolve matters. But how? Three courses of action are currently being discussed: the US and EU could continue imposing sanctions on Russia to force them into submission; they could negotiate a peace agreement; or, they could support Ukraine’s resistance efforts. This is where the divide creeps in. An increasing number of voices in Congress, along with Eastern European countries who feel threatened by Russia, are encouraging the White House to send military aid to Ukraine. It is certainly no secret that Washington has a deep distrust of Putin and will be wary of any peace plan that grants him concessions. US Vice President Joe Biden was keen to assert that the US prefers a peaceful resolution but made clear that Washington is not opposed to military force, arguing that in the past, “President Putin has promised peace and delivered tanks.” Yet many Western European countries doubt the ability of Ukrainian forces to defeat the Russian army, even with assistance. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has accused Putin of acting like a tyrant and spoke in favour of renewing or increasing the economic sanctions on Russia. Combined with the low oil prices that are damaging the

Russian economy, he hopes that further sanctions will force Putin to re-think his tactics. For Hammond, it is simply “not a practical proposition” for Kiev to beat Moscow on the battlefield France and Germany agree. The two countries have outlined a peace agreement which will grant Russia more territory than it was awarded in September’s ceasefire but will allow eastern Ukraine greater autonomy than in Russia’s proposed plan. Leaders Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel will meet Putin

along with the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Wednesday to discuss the terms of a long-term ceasefire. If they succeed, Washington will be keeping check on whether Putin adheres this time round. Failure to respect a new agreement would leave little doubt that Russia is playing a political game and would add fuel to the claims that Putin will not willingly cease from fighting in Ukraine so long as he views a thriving Westernised neighbour as an ideological threat. That could give the US greater incentive to intervene with force. If Wednesday fails to bring an agreement, then European leaders will have to consider their options when they meet at a summit later in the week. Further sanctions would likely prove more popular than arms, despite the resultant negative impact on the Eurozone’s economy. Political leaders will be conscious that Europe could pay a greater price if it does nothing at all.

Asia ex Japan: A year of competitiveness restoration A stronger US dollar would be positive for Asian exporters By Paul Chan CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER INVESCO HONG KONG

Asia ex-Japan appears to be one of the few bright spots for growth. In a “slower growth” world, the region is still expected to maintain gross domestic product (GDP) growth at around 4–5% per year. However, with growth moderation being a global phenomenon, Asia, like many other parts of the world, is undergoing a gradual growth deceleration. So how will Asian economies and corporates sustain their competitiveness, and what are the implications for Asian equity investors? We believe favourable cost structure for corporates, a synchronisation of Asian currencies and the transformation of economies by new governments will set a positive tone for Asia in 2015. Favourable cost structure for corporates Asia ex-Japan is undergoing a normal business cycle adjustment. As general demand is gradually levelling off amidst decelerating global growth, input costs are adjusting in response: costs of materials - ranging from agricultural products to hard commodities - are the biggest cost reduction drivers. Financing costs are coming down in selected markets, such as China and Korea, where we have seen interest rate cuts. Looking ahead, further interest rate cuts for Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan may be limited, as suggested by their low 10-year sovereign bond yields, which were below 3% following the year-to-date decline. In contrast, we see opportunities in countries with relatively high interest rates for further rate cuts to stimulate demand. These include highpopulation, net oil-importing countries like China, India and Indonesia, which should benefit from declining energy costs and a softer inflationary outlook. Looking ahead, we believe a favourable cost structure for corporates will serve as a key catalyst for margin improvement. Synchronisation of Asian currencies Currency has been a swinging factor in determining returns of specific Asian markets for the last two years. The US is the only bright spot in the developed markets that offer strong

fundamentals and healthy growth. As such, every Asian market is bidding to win business with the US and is willing to revalue its own currencies. Foreign exchange adjustment is the quickest and most direct way to preserve competitiveness, and historically this approach has often moved ahead of policies that are normally dependent on economic data. We expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen heading into 2015. With key markets depreciating for the past three months - Japanese yen are down -10.0% and Korean won are down -4.3% - we ponder how the other Asian currencies will react. Instead of currency divergence across the region, we are likely to see Asian currencies move in a more synchronised manner in 2015. In any case, a stronger US dollar would be positive for Asian exporters. Economic transformation to be led by new Pacific leadership In the past two years, China, India and Indonesia have ushered in crucial new leaders. In particular, the recent elections in India and Indonesia marked the start of a new beginning for the Pacific Century and its nations, which account for about 20% of the world’s population. Reforms were rolled out in earnest shortly after new leadership took the helm of governments in several countries. In a world of slower growth, we believe maintaining competitiveness is very important. As such, we believe a dedicated focus on competition and productivity are common goals of the reforms being launched by the various nations. For example: • In China, its reform focused on a nationwide anti-corruption movement and deregulation in the ownership structures of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in an effort to grow the presence of the country’s private sector. This will likely improve efficiency and align the corporates’ interests with those of its shareholders. • India launched several measures to support economic development, including labour deregulation to provide a more flexible cost structure. For example, the government passed four important labour laws that made it easier for companies to hire, train and dismiss workers. The new laws also stiffened the rules for trade union registration. • In Indonesia, the first reform step for the new government was to improve fiscal deficit by carrying out difficult decisions, such as reducing energy subsidies, which helped gasoline prices in

the country move closer to market-determined rates. Each nation has its own priorities. As such, it is unlikely for us to see a harmonised effort to implement structural changes among the various Asian economies. Yet, given the diversity in Asia, we believe we will continue to see greater reform efforts from the various countries, albeit with different targets, and at the countries’ own pace. Focusing on quality With earnings on the MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index expected to expand 9.6% in fiscal-year 2015, Asia ex-Japan is no longer the growth engine it once was, as world trade has been static over the last three years. Instead of focusing on top-line earnings growth, we believe Asian equity investors should shift their focus to the search for quality stocks, as measured by their competitiveness, shareholder returns and corporate governance. More attention should be paid, we believe, to companies’ capital allocation discipline. Management incentive schemes are also becoming more popular in Asia to align managements’ and shareholders’ interests. This has resulted in an increasing divergence between company share prices and sector performance. The difference in retaining the pricing power and margin will ultimately be reflected in share prices. We believe this should be a positive environment for active managers to add value over passive funds that aim to resemble index return as a whole, but neglect to differentiate the winners from the losers. www.invesco.com

February 11 - 17, 2015

financialmirror.com | MARKETS | 19

Bullish Apple analyst gets even more bullish

China: More pain than gain Marcuard’s Market update by GaveKal Dragonomics China is in for a rough year. The economy is in its most fragile state since 1998, at the nadir of the Asian financial crisis. Gross domestic product grew at an annualised rate of just 6.1% in the last quarter of 2014, and most key indicators suggest that the first half of 2015 is unlikely to be much better. Industrial profits are weakening sharply, which is likely to dampen wage growth and consumption-the two bright spots over the last couple of years. Disinflation is now entrenched. The implied GDP deflator last year was just 0.4%, producer prices have been falling for three years and the steep fall in oil prices, while beneficial in the long run, will only add to the downdraft in industrial pricing power and profits in the short term. To these problems add structural and policy-induced risks. The construction sector, one of the economy’s main growth engines, looks chronically weak as China has already passed the point of peak housing demand. To bring supply and demand into balance, it is likely that completions of new housing floor space, which tripled between 2000 and 2012, will need to decline by 10-15% over the next decade. Government programmes for building subsidised social housing—a crying need for the poorer half of the urban population—have helped prop up construction volumes for a few years. But this support is now also weakening, a point emphasised by the news that some local governments plan to buy existing but vacant housing units to convert them into social housing. While this is an eminently sensible way to solve the twin problems of excess high-end and insufficient low-end housing, it is surely bad news for the construction industry. There are also risks on the fiscal side. This year, local governments will lose the right to use their land holdings as collateral for loans, a mechanism which has provided about 20% of their net revenues in recent years. Tax revenues are also slowing because of the weaker economy. Faced with uncertain revenue, many local governments could well choose to cut back expenditure. Unless the central government is quick to

www.marcuardheritage.com

respond with increased transfers, which would push its own deficit above previously accepted levels, there are real risks of an inadvertent fiscal tightening this year. The positive spin on all this is that the government is serious about the structural work needed to set economic growth on a more sustainable footing. Sharply slower growth for a couple of years is the price that must be paid. The analogy is to the first four years of Premier Zhu Rongji’s tenure (19982001), when China suffered relatively low growth, persistent deflation and rising unemployment as it overhauled stateowned enterprises and the financial sector. There are three crucial differences between now and then. First, Zhu swiftly executed large-scale reforms that opened up new sources of productivity growth. He shifted most of the manufacturing sector from state to private hands, privatized the housing market and dragged China into the WTO. These moves paid dividends in the boom that began in 2002. By contrast, current president Xi Jinping has so far failed to gain much traction in the two reforms most crucial for future productivity growth: slashing the inefficient state sector and deregulating service industries. Second, Zhu had the good fortune to inherit a relatively low debt economy, so he could increase overall leverage to ease the pain of structural reform. Xi has far less room to maneuver. The economy’s debt level is high and rising fast, so over the medium to long term credit must be tightened. Third, in Zhu’s era there was little doubt that economic restructuring and growth was the state’s priority. Today there is equally little doubt that tightening political control tops Xi’s agenda. The priorities are anti-corruption, ideological purification and clamping down on the internet. As we have argued before, Xi’s economic and governance reform programme is serious, and his fierce political offensive (particularly the anti-graft drive) is essential groundwork for China’s future. His grand design may eventually pay off in more robust growth. In the short run, the economic picture is likely to grow uglier. The monetary easing cycle that began with last November’s interest rate cut and continued with last week’s reserve ratio cut will probably see another couple of rate cuts this year. These will be welcome, as China’s borrowers now face among the highest real rates in the world. But the most that monetary easing can achieve will be the stabilisation of growth at a lower level, somewhere between 6.5% and 7% this year (down from 2014’s full year figure of 7.3%), and perhaps as low as 6% in 2016. China may well fix its deep economic problems, but the process will take several years and it will be painful. In the meantime, don’t expect China to take the lead in pulling the world out of its cycle of stagnant growth and disinflation.

Disclaimer: This information may not be construed as advice and in particular not as investment, legal or tax advice. Depending on your particular circumstances you must obtain advice from your respective professional advisors. Investment involves risk. The value of investments may go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee for future performance. Investments in foreign currencies are subject to exchange rate fluctuations. Marcuard Cyprus Ltd is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySec) under License no. 131/11.

The Financial Markets Interest Rates Base Rates

LIBOR rates

CCY USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.125% 0.50% 0.05% 0.05% 0.00%

Swap Rates

CCY/Period

1mth

2mth

3mth

6mth

1yr

USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

0.17 0.50 -0.01 0.07 -0.93

0.21 0.53 0.01 0.09 -0.93

0.26 0.56 0.02 0.10 -0.91

0.37 0.68 0.09 0.14 -0.78

0.66 0.97 0.23 0.26 -0.68

CCY/Period USD GBP EUR JPY CHF

2yr

3yr

4yr

5yr

7yr

10yr

0.91 0.98 0.15 0.16 -0.82

1.24 1.17 0.18 0.19 -0.76

1.49 1.32 0.24 0.22 -0.67

1.66 1.42 0.31 0.28 -0.55

1.90 1.58 0.47 0.39 -0.29

2.11 1.73 0.71 0.58 0.02

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) received a favourable analyst call on Monday from Canaccord Genuity following its recent earnings report. The call was made based on the growing iPhone user base, which should drive steady long-term sales and strong cash flows. Analysis from Apple’s fiscal first quarter indicate that the company dominated the smartphone market in the December quarter, capturing 93% of industry profits. Canaccord Genuity believes that strong iPhone 6 replacement sales should continue in 2015 with only 15% of 404 mln iPhone users having upgraded to the new devices. Over the longer term, a gradually moderating growth rate is expected between 2016 and 2018, with 650 mln iPhone users by the end of that term, while in 2018 global premium smartphone subscribers are anticipated to total 1.82 bln. Canaccord Genuity believes that the modest base growth expectations, coupled with long-term replacement sales, would position Apple for steady sales of $210-215 mln iPhone units annually between the 2015 and 2018 calendar years. These levels should generate strong annual cash flows to easily fund a long-term capital returns programme. Apple could further monetise this large iPhone user base through additional products, software and services to help drive ongoing long-term sales growth. As a result, Canaccord Genuity is setting its 2016 earnings per share (EPS) estimate at $9.42. The firm’s price target of $145 is based on a multiplier of 15 times 2016 calendar year EPS, and just above $140 seen by Credit Suisse. Apple shares were up about 0.5% at $119.55 on Monday. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $131.20 and a 52-week trading range of $73.05 to $120.51. (Chris Lange – 24/7 Wall St.com)

WORLD CURRENCIES PER US DOLLAR CURRENCY

CODE

RATE

EUROPEAN

Belarussian Ruble British Pound * Bulgarian Lev Czech Koruna Danish Krone Estonian Kroon Euro * Georgian Lari Hungarian Forint Latvian Lats Lithuanian Litas Maltese Pound * Moldavan Leu Norwegian Krone Polish Zloty Romanian Leu Russian Rouble Swedish Krona Swiss Franc Ukrainian Hryvnia

BYR GBP BGN CZK DKK EEK EUR GEL HUF LVL LTL MTL MDL NOK PLN RON RUB SEK CHF UAH

15310 1.523 1.7296 24.496 6.5843 13.8334 1.1305 2.0276 272.68 0.62136 3.0527 0.3797 18.65 7.5709 3.7069 3.9214 65.819 8.3572 0.9247 25

AUD CAD HKD INR JPY KRW NZD SGD

0.7797 1.2488 7.7535 62.06 118.73 1089.26 1.3481 1.3538

BHD EGP IRR ILS JOD KWD LBP OMR QAR SAR ZAR AED

0.3770 7.5778 27497.00 3.8828 0.7080 0.2954 1509.00 0.3850 3.6413 3.7515 11.5735 3.6729

AZN KZT TRY

0.7803 185.05 2.4747

AMERICAS & PACIFIC

Australian Dollar * Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Indian Rupee Japanese Yen Korean Won New Zeland Dollar * Singapore Dollar MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Bahrain Dinar Egyptian Pound Iranian Rial Israeli Shekel Jordanian Dinar Kuwait Dinar Lebanese Pound Omani Rial Qatar Rial Saudi Arabian Riyal South African Rand U.A.E. Dirham

Exchange Rates ASIA Major Cross Rates

CCY1\CCY2 USD EUR GBP CHF JPY

Opening Rates

1 USD 1 EUR 1 GBP 1 CHF 1.1310 0.8842

1.5235 1.3470

0.6564

0.7424

0.9245

1.0456

1.4085

118.74

134.29

180.90

100 JPY

1.0817

0.8422

0.9564

0.7446

0.7100

0.5528 0.7786

128.44

Weekly movement of USD

CCY\Date

13.01

20.01

27.01

03.02

10.02

CCY

Today

USD GBP JPY CHF

1.1771

1.1524

1.1180

1.1274

1.1278

0.7764

0.7643

0.7404

0.7506

0.7401

139.49

136.20

132.03

131.76

133.53

1.1938

1.0066

1.0104

1.0451

1.0393

GBP EUR JPY CHF

1.5235 1.1310 118.74 0.9245

Last Week %Change 1.5238 1.1278 118.40 0.9215

-0.02 +0.28 +0.29 +0.32

Azerbaijanian Manat Kazakhstan Tenge Turkish Lira Note:

* USD per National Currency

February 11 - 17, 2015

20 | WORLD | financialmirror.com

Two cheers for the new normal Global inequality is narrowing, not growing By Jim O’Neill

The conventional wisdom about the state of the world economy goes something like this: Since the start of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the developed world has struggled to recover, with only the United States able to adjust. Emerging countries have fared better, but they, too, have started to flounder lately. In a bleak economic climate, the argument goes, the only winners have been the wealthy, resulting in skyrocketing inequality. That scenario sounds entirely right – until, on closer examination, it turns out to be completely wrong. Start with economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, during the first decade of this century, annual global growth averaged 3.7%, compared to 3.3% in the 1980s and 1990s. In the last four years, growth has averaged 3.4%. This is far lower than what many had hoped; in 2010, I predicted that in the coming decade, the world could grow at a 4.1% annual rate. But 3.4% is hardly disastrous by historical standards. To be sure, all of the large, developed economies are growing more slowly than they did when their economic engines were roaring. But it is only the eurozone that has badly disappointed in recent years. I had assumed, when I made my projections in 2010, that the region’s poor demographics and weak productivity would prevent it from growing at more than 1.5% a year. Instead, it has managed only a meager 0.3%. For Japan, the US, and the United Kingdom, the prospects are brighter. It

should be relatively straightforward for them to grow at an average rate that outpaces that of the last decade – a period that includes the peak of the financial crisis. In addition, the dramatic drop in the price of crude oil will serve as the equivalent of a large tax cut for consumers. Indeed, I am rather baffled by the IMF’s decision to downgrade its growth forecast for much of the world. If anything, with oil prices falling, an upward revision seems warranted. Another factor supporting a more positive outlook is the rebalancing that has occurred between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. Each entered the financial crisis with huge current-account imbalances. The US was running a deficit of more than 6.5% of its GDP, and China had a surplus of close to 10% of its GDP. Today, the US deficit has fallen to about 2%, and the Chinese surplus is less than 3%. Given that their intertwined imbalances were key drivers of the financial crisis, this is a welcome development. It has recently become fashionable to disparage the economic performance of the large emerging countries, particularly China and the other BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, and India). But it is hardly a surprise that these countries are no longer growing as fast as they once did. In 2010, I predicted that China’s annual growth would slow to 7.5%. It has since averaged 8%. India’s performance has been more discouraging, though growth has picked up since early 2014. The only real disappointments are Brazil and Russia, both of which have struggled (again, not surprisingly) with much lower commodity prices. Their lethargic performance, together with the eurozone’s, is the main reason why the world economy has not managed the 4.1% growth that optimists like me thought was feasible. The conventional wisdom on wealth and inequality is similarly mistaken. From 2000

to 2014, global GDP more than doubled, from $31.8 trln to over $75 trln. Over the same period, China’s nominal GDP soared from $1.2 trln to more than $10 trln – growing at more than four times the global rate. In 2000, the BRIC economies’ combined size was about a quarter of US GDP. Today, they have nearly caught up, with a combined GDP of more than $16 trln, just short of America’s $17.4 trln. Indeed, since 2000, the BRICs have been responsible for nearly a third of the rise in nominal global GDP. And other emerging countries have performed similarly well. Nigeria’s economy has grown 11-fold since 2000, and Indonesia’s has more than quintupled. Since 2008, these two developing giants have contributed more to global GDP growth than the EU has. Statistics like these utterly disprove the idea that global inequality is growing. Gaps in income and wealth may be shooting up within individual countries, but per capita

income in developing countries is rising much faster than in the advanced economies. Indeed, that is why one of the key targets of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals – to halve the number of people living in absolute poverty – was achieved five years ahead of the deadline. None of this is meant to deny that we are living in challenging and uncertain times. But one thing is clear: economically, at least, the world is continuing to become a better place. Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is Honorary Professor of Economics at Manchester University, a visiting research fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel, and a fellow of the University of Cambridge’s Center for Rising Powers. © Project Syndicate, 2015. www.project-syndicate.org

Will Draghi’s QE programme work? The recent announcement by Mario Draghi for the which is the mandate of the ECB; (2) create growth and Quantitative Easing (QE) programme in Europe was reduce unemployment; and, (3) lower sovereign bond yields welcomed by an expected euphoria from the financial to make it easier for countries to access the financial markets. Whether the programme will achieve its goals depends to markets. Stock markets around the globe produced positive a large extent on how the fresh and significant returns, money is used and whether it’s while yields on the sovereign into the real bond markets exhibited By George Theocharides channelled economy. Sovereign bonds are sharp declines. This was a held by the central bank, long-awaited decision by the depository institutions (banks, ECB which was delayed for Cyprus International savings and loan associations, some time due to the Institute of Management credit unions), dealers and stubbornness of Germany to brokers, pension/proallow such a programme, vident/investment funds, fearing that it might lead to a halt in structural reforms from the countries that need them insurance companies, individual investors, as well as foreign governments and other institutions. The way that these the most. In the end, “super” Mario Draghi resisted the Germans’ investors use the fresh money issued by the ECB is entirely objections and announced a programme that was even based on their preferences. For example, if a bank that sells government bonds to bigger than what the market expected; EUR 60 bln per month in asset purchases by the ECB from the secondary ECB decides to use the fresh money to increase its cash market, from March 2015 until September 2016, for a total balance, or repay back some liabilities (for example, ECB amount of around EUR 1.1 trln. This is fresh money pumped funding), then that would not create growth and inflation in into the European economy, and the question is what will be the domestic economy. Furthermore, there might not be the likely impact of this programme, and whether it’s enough adequate demand for the banks to lend out this new money. As far as the bond yields are concerned, I think this is to revive the European economy. The aim of QE is three-fold: (1) battle deflation, and achievable. Just the announcement by ECB has lowered produce a level of inflation close, but lower, than the 2% rate significantly the sovereign bond yields, and a further drop

will probably occur once the programme commences. Overall, economists and experts are not clear whether QE is a right policy to follow. However, the recent example of the QE programmes (a total of three programmes) implemented in the US led to a fast recovery of the US economy. Certainly printing more money by central banks, although it can increase inflation, is not a long-term solution. Countries need to implement their structural reforms, there needs to be fiscal prudence, and as a result they will make their economy more competitive. And I think here lies one of the main problems with the European economy. Europe lost its competitiveness to other parts of the world, and there is not enough innovation. Furthermore, there is no fiscal union and a banking union that only recently has been put in place. My personal opinion is that QE will help, but governments (especially in southern Europe) need to continue with their structural reforms and fiscal adjustment. Furthermore, Europe can benefit from investment initiatives such as the EUR 315 bln Juncker plan that was announced last December. Monetary easing bundled with EU-led investment plans and a continuation of the structural reforms to become more competitive might be the way for Europe to revive its ailing economy. George Theocharides is Associate Professor of Finance and Director of MSc in Financial Services at the Cyprus International Institute of Management (CIIM) www.ciim.ac.cy

February 11 - 17, 2015

financialmirror.com | WORLD | 21

The fog of disorder and global security By Wolfgang Ischinger and Adrian Oroz Which emerging threat is the world missing right now? After a truly horrendous year for international peace and security, this question was even more important for the leaders, analysts, and media gathering this week at the 51st Munich Security Conference (MSC). A year ago, the war in Syria and the crisis in Ukraine were the international community’s preoccupying challenges. But many of the participants in last year’s MSC would likely now admit that they did not appreciate the true gravity of these events – let alone what might come next. Only a few months later, the rapid escalation and regionalisation of both crises, together with developments elsewhere, led many observers to proclaim that 2014 marked the beginning of a less peaceful and more chaotic era in international relations. Numerous flaws and points of erosion in existing collective security structures have been revealed over the past year. Terms like the “The Great Unraveling,” coined by the journalist Roger Cohen in the fall of 2014, resonate widely because they capture the current sense of helplessness, lack of control, and inability to predict or grasp which crisis might come next. As Javier Solana recently put it, “We have been living in an illusion. For years, the world has believed that the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar order would be peaceful, orderly, and steady [...]. How wrong we were.” That illusion coexisted happily with a lack of imagination. While it may sound elegant to distinguish between the “right” and the “wrong” side of history, or to criticise the use of 19th century methods in the 21st century, such arguments amount to little more than rhetorical devices. At best, they do no harm; at worst, they obscure the complexities of today’s security landscape that need to be understood and addressed. For starters, war has returned to Europe. Fundamental principles of pan-European security are part of the wreckage, and so may be the progress in relations between Russia and the West made since the Cold War’s end. Moreover, the Arab world, more violent and unstable than it has been in many decades, seems likely to fragment even further, while radical jihadist

EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy chief Federica Mogherini speaking during the 51st Security Conference in Munich, where dozens of government leaders, defense and foreign ministers met on current security affairs and discussed the Ukrainian crisis and the fight against the Islamic State (IS) militant group

groups, energised and competing with one another, are increasingly directing their rage at the West again. And in the Asia-Pacific region, even though major incidents were avoided, stability remains precarious. Sadly, the cracks exposed over the last few months appear likely only to widen, as political conflict and competition among the world’s key powers increase. Indeed, in ten years, 2014 will probably be regarded as a prelude. But to what? Even as the international order and regional arrangements are increasingly tested, it is unclear who will be able, or even willing, to uphold peace and stability. Fears that the United States is abandoning its global leadership role are certainly exaggerated. But, at the very least, President Barack Obama’s declared focus on “nation-building at home” has created a perception of retreat that worries many allies. In Europe, meanwhile, many countries are still trying to overcome the impact of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, as well as domestic policy paralysis and rising Euroskepticism. Europe’s global role, for all its potential, will not be spelled out in a meaningful way anytime soon. Over the course of the last year, Germany debated whether

it should take on a more active international role, but the German public is adjusting only gradually to new expectations. Though some surveys suggest that Germany’s culture of restraint is not as entrenched as many believe, a new poll conducted for the Munich Security Report finds that only 34% of Germans think that their country should become more engaged in international crises. A significant majority of Germans remain skeptical of adopting a more active global stance, suggesting that any effort to assume an international leadership role remains an uphill battle. Of course, not all breakdowns in order can be attributed to domestic politics, economic considerations, or shifting great power relations. The number of relevant actors and potential spoilers on the world stage has skyrocketed, further weakening governments’ ability to resolve problems on their own or in coordination with one another. But collapsing orders are both a cause and an effect of their traditional and potential guardians’ increasing reluctance. As leaders stop acting the way they used to, or fail to do as much as a situation might warrant, other actors test the limits. As orders crumble and become harder to maintain or manage, traditional and potential leaders increasingly consider the challenge too great, or they rely heavily on quick fixes and stop-gap measures, further fueling unpredictability and instability. It was at this intersection of test and trepidation that today’s vicious circle of geopolitical turmoil was set in motion. Against this backdrop, there is no reason to believe that predicting major crises, let alone containing them, will become any easier. Growing global complexity intensifies the problem. Overwhelmed by a surfeit of information, governments and key international institutions find themselves overlooking or misjudging the signals amid the noise. And it is becoming much more difficult for leaders to focus on a few critical items, which would likely increase the quality of their decisionmaking. Many old assumptions died in 2014. At this year’s MSC, the world will have an opportunity to consider what should replace them. Wolfgang Ischinger is Chairman of the Munich Security Conference. Adrian Oroz is Senior Adviser for Policy and Analysis at the Munich Security Conference. This article draws in part on an essay in the first Munich Security Report, published on the occasion of the 51st Munich Security Conference. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

Cheap oil for change By Kaushik Basu and Sri Mulyani The recent decline in oil prices is likely to have a major, largely positive impact on the global economy – even greater than most observers seem to recognise. Indeed, if governments take advantage of lower oil prices today to implement critical energy-policy reforms, the benefits may improve structural features of their economies tomorrow. A key reason why the price decline’s impact has so far been underestimated is that nobody knows how long it will last. And, indeed, past price movements provide little guidance in this regard. When prices plunged in 2008, they shot back up almost faster than experts could say “new normal”; after the 19861987 drop, prices remained low for a decade and a half. This time, the price trajectory is likely to be determined by a new player in the energy game: shale oil. The marginal cost of shale-oil production (the expense of continuing to pump an existing well) varies from $55 to $70 per barrel. Add a $5 profit margin, and the oil-supply curve now has a long, nearhorizontal segment in the range of about $60-75 per barrel. Regardless of demand, this will be the natural nesting range for the price of oil – call it the “shale shelf” – and will likely remain in place for a protracted period. This provides some insight into OPEC’s decision last November not to curtail supply. Saudi Arabia correctly reasoned that cutting output would not boost prices, but simply concede

space for new players to step in and grab market share. Of course, this pattern could be disrupted, if, say, a war or major conflict in an oil-exporting region constrained supply enough to cause prices to spike beyond the shale shelf. But, in the absence of a major unexpected shock, oil companies will remain under pressure to continue selling oil, even at low prices, as they struggle to service the large debts they incurred on investments when oil prices were high. This pressure is precisely what drove oil prices so low in December and January. Given this, it is reasonable to expect the oil supply to remain plentiful, and prices to remain moderate, through 2016 – a trend that will boost global growth by an estimated 0.5 percentage points over this period. The impact will be especially large for countries like India and Indonesia, where the bill for oil imports amounts to as much as 7.5% of GDP. In fact, India’s current account, which has been in deficit for years, is likely to record a surplus this year. This creates a unique opportunity for energy-policy reform. In far too many countries, fuel is heavily subsidised, straining government budgets and encouraging wasteful consumption. Low oil prices offer an ideal opening to reduce subsidies, thereby releasing funds that governments can spend on basic services and social-welfare programs that advance poverty reduction. But advising countries simply to lower subsidies is often meaningless. In countries where the government dictates gas prices – like India and Indonesia did until recently (and, to some extent, continue to do) – lower market prices would reduce the subsidy automatically. That is why holding down subsidies is inadequate for such countries. The goal should be to shift from a fixed-price system, with occasional government-decreed adjustments, to a market-

based price regime, in which the government makes a credible pledge not to limit prices, with the exception of pre-defined extreme circumstances. While such a move would have a negligible effect on prices now, it would provide countries with a huge advantage during future oil-price fluctuations, because consumers and retail suppliers would no longer be cut off from price signals. Amid all of this good news, two serious concerns stand out. In the short run, declining oil prices create grave challenges for those who, having invested in expanding production when prices were high, now face large costs and failing businesses. More problematic, lower oil prices encourage excessive consumption – the long-term environmental impact of which will be compounded by the weakening incentive to invest in alternative energy sources. Policymakers must recognise these risks, and implement policies to mitigate them. Specifically, governments should divert the money they save on oil and subsidies to targeted programs aimed at helping people escape poverty, and they should incorporate into their tax regimes incentives for innovation and investment in clean energy. With the correct approach, today’s oil-price volatility could turn out to be a critical turning point on the path toward a more sustainable future, characterised by shared prosperity and genuine progress on poverty reduction. The direction to take is clear. Kaushik Basu, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University. Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer of the World Bank, is a former minister of finance of Indonesia. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

February 11 - 17, 2015

22 | WORLD | financialmirror.com

Financing the fight against climate change By Anne Paugam Climate change is already wreaking havoc throughout the developing world. Vietnam, for example, has reported that natural disasters, some of them exacerbated by climate change, have caused annual losses equivalent to 2% of its GDP. In agriculture-dependent countries like Ethiopia, longer droughts and more frequent flooding are threatening livelihoods and food supplies. As the international community gears up for the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in December, identifying and streamlining sources of financing for the fight against climate change must be a top priority. Development banks like the French Development Agency (AFD), where I am CEO, are well placed to contribute. For starters, development banks can finance projects that benefit both development and the environment. Global warming is now a vital factor to consider when planning any development project. For example, the effects of climate change can pose critical risks to infrastructure – agricultural irrigation, public transportation, or nearly anything else. Meanwhile, rising incomes – a goal of any development effort – nearly always means increased consumption of natural resources and energy, resulting in more emissions and further warming. Such interlocking relationships between global warming and development explain why the French government requires that at least 50% of the funding provided by the AFD be directed toward development projects that also have a positive impact on the environment. Examples include wind farms in Ethiopia, better forest management in Madagascar, nationwide climate plans in Indonesia and Vietnam, and clean urban transport in Colombia. Development banks can also play an important role in designing financial tools that allow private investors to contribute to the fight against climate change. But today’s

funding challenge is no longer just about quantity. Though potential sources for climate-friendly development financing now include pension funds, insurance companies, foundations, and sovereign wealth funds, what is often missing are mechanisms to ensure that investments are channeled into well-targeted and effective projects. One solution is “green” (or “climate”) bonds. These instruments have all the characteristics of conventional bonds, but they are backed by investments that contribute to sustainable development or the fight against climate change. Until recently, only a few organisations or governments, including the World Bank, the American state of Massachusetts, and the French region of Ile de France, issued green bonds, and generally the amounts involved were modest. But in the past two years, other players have entered the market, and volumes have skyrocketed. In 2014, emissions of green bonds exceeded the total in all previous years combined. Indeed, demand is outstripping supply. The latest bond offers were all oversubscribed – and the trend is likely to continue. The insurance industry has committed to double its

green investments, to $84 bln, by the end of 2015. And in September, three major pension funds from North America and Europe announced plans to increase their holdings in low-carbon investments by more than $31 bln by 2020. As the market for these bonds expands, they must be better labeled and certified. Today, harmonised standards do not exist. The quality of the assets backing the bonds depends solely on issuers’ goodwill and technical skills. Specific guidelines and rating methods need to be developed. In this context, the recent decision by a coalition of institutional investors to measure and disclose the carbon footprint of at least $500 bln in investments is a step forward. In September, the AFD issued EUR 1 bln ($1.2 bln) in climate bonds, with one goal being to contribute to the development of concrete quality standards. With the help of a major agency that rates corporate social responsibility, we were able to provide investors with solid information – and an accountability process – about the portfolio’s direct impact on greenhouse-gas emissions. Indeed, the projects financed by these bonds were required to meet stringent criteria, including a prior analysis of their carbon footprint, proof of a clear and significant impact on climate change, and a design that is aligned with the broader strategies being pursued by local actors and countries. Climate bonds have the potential to empower countries and institutions as they move toward meeting enforceable commitments to reduce CO2 emissions. However, if they are to be effective, they will require clear guidelines and a reliable framework for assessment. As leaders from countries and institutions from around the world prepare to meet in Paris in December, getting the financing right should be a top priority. Anne Paugam is Chief Executive Officer of France’s development financing institution Agence Francaise de Developpement. France will host COP21 in December 2015 in Paris. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

The rise of the frugal economy In a famous 1937 essay, the economist Ronald Coase transport. The peer-to-peer home-sharing service Airbnb now argued that the reason Western economies are organised like a rents more room-nights annually than the entire Hilton hotel pyramid, with a few large producers at the top and millions of chain. And the peer-to-peer lending market, which bypasses passive consumers below, is the existence of transaction costs banks and their hefty hidden fees, surpassed the $1 bln mark in – the intangible costs associated with search, bargaining, early 2012. The global market for shared products and services is decision-making, and enforcement. But with the Internet, mobile technologies, and social media all but eliminating such expected to grow dramatically, from $15 bln today to $335 bln by 2025, without requiring costs in many sectors, this any major investment. The economic structure is bound European Commission to change. Indeed, in the United States By Navi Radjou and predicts that peer-to-peer sharing, now an income and across Europe, vertically Jaideep Prabhu booster in a stagnant labour integrated value chains market, will evolve into a controlled by large companies disruptive economic force. are already being challenged The nature of horizontal by new consumernetworks supports this orchestrated value ecosystems, which allow consumers to design, build, market, prediction. Such networks begin working long before they distribute, and trade goods and services among themselves, reduce transaction costs. By enabling ordinary people to do at eliminating the need for intermediaries. This bottom-up home what, a decade ago, only scientists in large labs could do, approach to value creation is enabled by the horizontal (or the Internet economy is lowering the costs of research and peer-to-peer) networks and do-it-yourself (DIY) platforms that development, design, and production of new goods and services in many sectors. form the foundation of the “frugal” economy. Thanks to low-cost DIY hardware kits like the $25 Arduino Two key factors are fueling the frugal economy’s growth: a protracted financial crisis, which has weakened the purchasing or the $35 Raspberry Pi, people are increasingly building their power of middle-class consumers in the West, and these own consumer devices. Moreover, customers can now design and manufacture consumers’ increasing sense of environmental responsibility. Eager to save money and minimise their ecological impact, industrial-caliber products by using shared high-tech Western consumers are increasingly eschewing individual workshops – so-called “fab labs” – equipped with CNC routers, ownership in favour of shared access to products and services. laser cutters, and 3D printers. Such changes are propelling the so-called “maker As it stands, nearly 50% of Europeans believe that, within a decade, cars will be consumed as a “shared” good, instead of movement”: a legion of tinkerers who collectively can create privately owned, and 73% predict the rapid growth of car- products faster, better, and more cheaply than big companies sharing services. BlaBlaCar, Europe’s leading car-sharing can. Together, the maker movement and peer-to-peer sharing service, now transports more passengers monthly than platforms are empowering once-passive customers to become Eurostar, the high-speed rail service connecting London with active “prosumers,” thereby spawning a frugal economy that Paris and Brussels. And the better-known service Uber is can create value in a more efficient, cost-effective, socially causing panic among taxi companies worldwide. Despite inclusive, and environmentally sustainable way. Recognising these benefits, some communities are actively recent controversy, the company, founded in 2009, is valued at supporting the maker movement and accelerating the more than $40 bln. This shift in consumer attitudes extends far beyond development of frugal economies. For example, mayors of

major cities – including New York, Tokyo, Rome, Santiago, and Oslo – are seeking to host Maker Faires, where ordinary citizens showcase their ingenuity and engage with other makers. Last June, US President Barack Obama hosted the first White House Maker Faire – declaring that “Today’s DIY is tomorrow’s ‘Made in America’ ” – and appointed a senior adviser to determine how to turn the maker movement into an engine of US economic growth. And New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, who proclaimed September 15-21, 2014, “Maker Week,” and Barcelona Mayor Xavier Trias, who wants to build a “Fab City,” are trying to put their cities at the forefront of the global maker movement. Meanwhile, in Vauban – a neighbourhood in the German city of Freiburg – 65% of electricity is produced by solar panels and a co-generation plant established and operated by local citizens. And Helsinki is building a “mobility on demand” system that seamlessly combines multiple shared- and publictransport services in a single payment network, with the goal of eliminating private car ownership by 2025. A self-organising frugal economy could generate billions of dollars in value and create millions of jobs in the medium term. But, of course, there will be losers: the large Western companies whose “more for more” business models, backed by huge R&D budgets and closed organisational structures, are not designed to serve the needs of cost-conscious and ecoaware consumers seeking more – and better – for less. In order to survive, these established companies will need to reinvent themselves as frugal enterprises that integrate digitally empowered “prosumers” into their value chains and strive to address market needs in a more eco-efficient and cost-effective way. The transition to a frugal economy is happening. Traditional companies must get on board – or risk becoming obsolete. Navi Radjou is a Silicon Valley-based innovation and leadership adviser and winner of the 2013 Thinkers50 Innovation Award. Jaideep Prabhu is a professor at Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, and Director of the Center for India & Global Business. They are co-authors of the forthcoming book Frugal Innovation: How To Do More With Less. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

February 11 - 17, 2015

financialmirror.com | WORLD | 23

Europe’s Eurasian opportunity By Michael Schaefer and Inna Veleva The global energy system is changing fast, fueling widespread anxiety about so-called “energy insecurity,” particularly in Europe. The problem is not that the world is running out of energy resources. On the contrary, oil scarcity is less of a concern today than ever before, owing not only to energy-efficiency initiatives, like the European Union’s nearly zero-energy buildings policy, but also to rising competition between shale producers and traditional oil exporters. Continued technological progress suggests that renewable energies – from wind and solar to, perhaps, planetary winds – may ultimately supplant fossil fuels, anyway. Instead, the insecurity is political in origin, with short-term considerations, especially with regard to Russia, overwhelming a coherent energy – and, to some extent, foreign – policy. This shortsightedness is generating serious security risks, fueling geopolitical instability, and undermining economic growth. It is time for a new approach that leverages the interconnectedness of our energy systems, economies, and strategic relationships to build a more stable, efficient, and prosperous world. The first step is understanding how these issues are related to one another. The Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea and its support for violent separatists in eastern Ukraine prompted the United States and Europe to impose increasingly stringent economic sanctions against Russia. The ruble fell by more than 50%, fueling inflation and forcing Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates, impeding economic growth. The credit-rating firm Standard & Poor’s has now cut Russia’s credit rating to junk status, pushing the ruble even lower. But, though cheaper Russian energy imports should benefit Europe, the effectiveness of Western sanctions is not entirely good news. A financial crisis in Russia, together with collapsing energy prices, would crash the Eurasian economy, with serious repercussions for EU members that depend heavily on exports to the region. European leaders are well aware of the risks their economies face. Danish Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier have warned of the potential economic and political fallout of continued sanctions, while French President Francois Hollande has called for their de-escalation. Such a shift will of course require a convincing commitment by Russia to last September’s Minsk Protocol,

which was supposed to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine. But, despite the force with which intensifying economic hardship and diplomatic isolation are pushing the Kremlin toward cooperation, a political compromise must be handled carefully. Specifically, if Russians believe that their leaders have buckled under pressure, they might protest, destabilising the country in a way that would benefit neither Russia nor the West. By ensuring that the agreement aligns, to some extent, with the rhetoric of Russia’s strategic posturing, Western leaders would provide the Kremlin a minimally risky escape route from the current deadlock. Russian President Vladimir Putin would have much to gain from such a deal, not least with regard to the Eurasian Economic Union, which was recently unveiled to little fanfare. Given Russia’s growing alienation from its remaining partners, especially Belarus and Kazakhstan, which are determined to preserve their neutrality in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the EEU currently seems unlikely to fulfill Putin’s ambition of serving as a credible rival to the EU. Indeed, it may not even survive. Kazakhstan, for one, has not been shy about its reservations. Shortly after Putin declared, at last August’s Seliger Youth Forum, that “Kazakhs never had a state of their own” before 1991 (a statement that reflected the same geopolitical chauvinism that has characterised Putin’s Ukraine policy), Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev explicitly threatened to leave the project. “Astana,” he vowed, “will never be in an organisation which represents a threat to the independence of Kazakhstan.” But the EEU is first and foremost an economic grouping, a point that Nazarbayev, who first introduced the idea of a Eurasian alliance back in 1994, has always emphasised. On that front, Russia may well be an even less appealing partner nowadays. In this context, the Central Asian republics are already hedging against Putin’s irredentist ambitions, by pursuing closer ties with the EU and China. The question remains whether divergent visions for economic cooperation in Central Asia allow for a long-term symbiosis between the Kremlinsponsored EEU and China’s Silk Road Economic Belt strategy, which would expand trade and investment into Russia’s “near abroad.” With China’s growing influence in the post-Soviet space

enabling the Central Asian republics to embrace a so-called “multi-vector” foreign policy, a shift in the balance of power will benefit Russia’s former client-states by increasing their leverage for negotiation within the newly established entity. The EEU would thus have a chance to develop beyond a Russian neoSoviet integration scheme and become a unified and dynamic economic area. This would represent an important opportunity for the EU, which has a strong interest in a reintegrated Russia and a politically stabilised Central Asia. As Russia’s Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov recently stated, ongoing sanctions need not prevent the EU and the EEU from maintaining official contact. Such an approach could advance Europe’s efforts to improve its energy security and contribute to a more stable geopolitical environment, without undermining progress toward other interregional cooperation agreements, such as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the US. By building on existing interdependencies, European leaders could help to lay the foundations for a shared legal and institutional framework that improves energy-supply administration and expands opportunities for economic exchange among EU and EEU members. For EU leaders, the time has come to think ahead. Michael Schaefer, a former German Ambassador to China, is Chairman of the Board of Directors of the BMW Foundation. Inna Veleva is Project Manager for Global Dialogue at the BMW Foundation. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

The world is $199 trln in debt, and growing By Jon C. Ogg (Source: 24/7 WallSt.com)

The world’s economies may have improved since the financial crisis, but now more than ever, the world is drowning in higher and higher debt. A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that the world has added $57 trln in debt since the financial crisis. The firm pointed out that all major economies currently have higher levels of borrowing relative to gross domestic product (GDP) versus the year 2007, right before the Great Recession and financial crisis. The net global debt added since then is now projected as a ratio of debt to GDP to be up 17 percentage points. The new total of global debt, as of the end of the second quarter of 2014, is a whopping $199 trln. This massive number compares to $142 trln at the end of 2007, and it compares to a mere $87 trln at the end of 2000. McKinsey’s report highlighted three areas of emerging risk that all of this new debt poses. First is the rise of government debt, and second is the continued rise in household debt - and housing prices - to new peaks in Northern Europe and some Asian countries. Third is the quadrupling of China’s debt. Before you think that this ballooning debt applies only to governments, it does not. This also applies to households, corporations and financial-related debt. McKinsey further warns that global household debt is

reaching new peaks. It was only in nations like the U.S., the U.K., Ireland and Spain where households have actually deleveraged since the financial crisis. The total household debt in other nations, including the household debt-to-income ratios, have continued to rise. These nations with higher debt were said to include nations such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand. Government debt has grown by $25 trln in seven years and the research warns “to reduce government debt, countries may

need to consider new approaches, such as more extensive asset sales, one-time taxes on wealth, and more efficient debtrestructuring programme.” Globally, the scariest figure by far has to be that China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. This was driven by real estate and shadow banking, up to 282% of GDP. If you want to put this in perspective, this figure is larger than the United States or Germany. McKinsey’s three warnings on China are as follows: half of all loans are somehow linked to China’s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. The only good news is that China’s government is believed to have the capacity to bail out the financial sector if a property-related debt crisis develops. But in terms of total debt to GDP for some of the major nations, that debt includes government, financial institutions, corporate (non-financial) and households. Anyhow, arguments of this sort can carry on forever. It is ultimately hard to know how the unwinding of all this debt will occur. Four paths to begin government debt deleveraging were identified as follows: make fiscal adjustments to reduce or eliminate fiscal deficits, accelerate GDP growth through productivity improvements, raise inflation targets or restructure debt. If the global debt load is still growing, and if the $199 trln debt was as of the second quarter of 2014, then the global debt load by now is really over $200 trln. Food for thought.

February 11 - 17, 2015

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Innovate or stagnate By Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Companies, like people, grow old. They start life small and eager to survive, fueled by youthful energy and fresh ideas. They compete, expand, mature, and eventually, with few exceptions, fade into obscurity. The same is true of governments: they, too, can lose the hunger and ambition of youth and allow themselves to become complacent. Consider this: only 11% of the Fortune 500 companies from 1955 still exist today, while the average time that companies stay in the top 500 has fallen from 75 years to 15 years. In this age of rapid change, those who lag behind become irrelevant – in a heartbeat. Countries whose governments grow old face the same fate as outdated companies. Their choice is simple: innovate or become irrelevant. The race for national competitiveness is every bit as fierce as the competition among companies in the marketplace. Countries compete for investment, talent, growth, and opportunity in a globalised world, and those that are pushed out of the running surrender the greatest prize of all: human development, prosperity, and happiness for their people. To avoid this fate, governments must focus on what really matters: how to be like the 11% of companies that have remained, through the decades, in the top 500. The lifecycle of companies should teach governments that the secret of eternal youth is constant innovation – seizing opportunities and behaving like the dynamic, entrepreneurial companies that are defining today’s world and shaping its future. The key to corporations’ rejuvenation, civilisations’ evolution, and human development in general is simple: innovation. I am always amazed when governments think they are an exception to this rule. Innovation in government is not an intellectual luxury, a topic confined to seminars and panel discussions, or a matter only of administrative reforms. It is the recipe for human survival and development, the fuel

for constant progress, and the blueprint for a country’s rise. The first key to business-like innovation in government is a focus on skills. Top-tier companies continuously invest in their employees to provide them with the right skills for the marketplace. Governments must do the same, by constantly upgrading skills and nurturing innovation – among their own employees, across key sectors of the economy, and at the foundations of the education system. Governments that fail to equip new generations with the skills needed to become leaders for their time are condemning them to be led by other, more innovative societies. A United States Department of Labor study found that 65% of children currently in primary school will grow up to work in jobs that do not exist today. Another study at Oxford University found that 47% of job categories are at high risk of ceasing to exist because they can be automated through technology. So, how do we prepare our children and future generations for such times? How do we equip our countries to compete, not only today, but in the coming decades as well? The answer lies in honing our children’s creativity, and providing them with the analytical and communication skills needed to channel it toward productive ends. The second key to transforming governments into engines of innovation is to shift the balance of investment toward intangibles, as in the private sector. Whereas more than 80% of the value of the Standard & Poor’s 500 consisted of tangible assets 40 years ago, today that ratio is reversed: more than 80% of the largest companies’ value is intangible – the knowledge and skills of their employees and the intellectual property embedded in their products. Governments, too, should think strategically about shifting their spending away from tangible infrastructure like roads and buildings, and toward intangibles like education and research and development. It is no secret that the US and Europe, combined, spend more than $250 bln of public funds annually on R&D to maintain their leading positions. Likewise, a key driver of rapid development in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea has been their strategic decision to shift public expenditure away from hard infrastructure and toward the “soft” infrastructure needed to build and sustain a knowledge

economy. Likewise, the British government spends markedly more of its budget on such intangibles than on tangible assets. Most of today’s transformative companies are well known for having an innovative corporate culture and working environment that inspires and empowers employees. Governments that set an example for innovation have the power to implant a nationwide culture of creativity. When such a culture takes root, people feel inspired to run further with their ideas, to aim higher with their ambitions, and to pursue bigger dreams. That is how countries that encourage innovation take the lead – and stay there. To sustain innovation, businesses must attract and retain the most creative and productive minds. In this age of global mobility, countries, too, go head to head in the battle for talent. Global cities compete to provide an ideal life and work environment for innovators, and to harness their creativity to become stronger and more competitive still. Innovative governments do the same thing on a national scale. They attract talent, perform efficiently, and continually upgrade their systems and services. They empower citizens to cultivate their collective energy and develop their potential, and thus become drivers of their countries’ growth and advancement in the world arena. Above all, they value human minds and help people become better guardians and builders of our planet. For governments, innovation is an existential question. Only those that sustain innovation can drive change in the world, because they are the governments that never grow old. Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum is Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai. © Project Syndicate, 2015, www.project-syndicate.org

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