King Charles III’s coronation is the first in the UK in the 21st Century and households across England and Wales will enjoy three Bank Holiday weekends this May. Consumer confidence is on the rise with prospective buyers benefitting from an increasing choice of mortgage deals.
King Charles’ coronation in Westminster Abbey marks the 40th such event in the Abbey’s history, since William the Conqueror was crowned there back in 1066. Community and neighbourliness, significant features of the coronation weekend with the Big Lunch and the Big Help Out, are key considerations for home movers when choosing a property to buy. 87% of home movers rate pleasant neighbours as an important consideration when choosing a property to buy, and three in four rate a sense of local community (Dataloft, Property Academy Home Moving Trends Survey, 2022). Neighbourhoods or streets where homes rarely come up for sale are a good indicator of a strong community, as is the number of neighbours a resident knows by their first name.
Although inflation remains high, the Consumer Prices Index including housing costs (CPIH) fell to below 9% in March¹. Meanwhile, consumer economic confidence in the month to April exceeded market expectations and hit its highest level in over a year². Although remaining in negative territory, as it has since early 2016, this represents the third consecutive month of improvement. With the UK now expected to avoid recession, and the latest economic index signalling the economy is growing³, consumers are increasingly confident as to their own financial situation for the year ahead. Confidence in the general economy over the next 12 months has risen 20 points since January.
Rightmove report demand for property remains 8% stronger than in 2019, with properties selling (from listing to sold, subject to contract), some 12 days quicker than at that time. Properties with up to two bedrooms are currently proving the most sought after, demand for such properties up 11%
compared to 2019. An increase in property stock to the market is providing more choice for buyers, with TwentyCi noting stock levels are now only 9% lower than the historical norms. Nearly all regions in England and Wales now have three or more months’ of residential stock to sell, the North East the notable exception.
Buyers and sellers continue to transact. Figures released by the HMRC show 94,870 sales took place in March 2023, 26% stronger than in February although on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales volumes were just 1% higher. Rightmove report the number of sales agreed to date in 2023 is just 1% lower than in 2019, compared to a -21% fall at the start of the year. Prospective purchasers are benefitting from enhanced competition between mortgage lenders across the Loan-to-Value spectrum. Moneyfacts report there were over 5,100 deals on the market in April, up 17% on March and just shy of the 5,300 available in August 2022, when interest rates started to rise. Despite the base rate of interest having risen by 2% since October, long-term swap rates are some 1.5% points lower, with fixed-rate mortgage deals now available offering rates below 4%.
Nationwide report average property prices were 2.7% lower in April than a year earlier. However, month-on month the average price of a property rose by 0.5% after seven months of falls. In the prime markets annual price growth is currently positive in all regions of England and Wales, with the South East and South West currently the strongest performing markets.
¹ONS ²GfK ³S&P Global / CIPS£278,198
£857,000 £1,302,917
£458,349 £1,250,000 £1,787,231
