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Major M&A Deals 2022 35

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Our Team 39

Our Team 39

This diminishes purchasing power and complicates servicing debt denominated in foreign currencies (the U.S. Dollar). Diversion of essential resources to 3 make debt payments rather than investing in healthcare and community needs should, at the very least, raise the alarm to cancel debt, as such soaring interest rates would push developing countries over the edge to make debt payments in the shortest possible time due to future price increases.

It is all a game of numbers. In terms of raw figures, quarterly forecasts for rates and economic statistics revealed that unemployment rates are predicted to surge to 4.4% from the present 3.7%. Another source of concern is the GDP's intentional slowing to 0.2%, with a longterm rate of 1.8%. In fact, Powell himself calls for a possible recession in the near future as a result of the Fed's rapid rate tightening. However, these increases are unmistakably linked to the objective and goal of lowering headline inflation, which is expected to decline to 5.4% this year from 6.3% last year, and finally to 2% in 2025. Another surprising figure is that of gold. Irrespective of the bullion being considered one of the strongest' hedgers' against inflation, the hawkish interest rates' powers have disfigured the metal's might, pushing it down by 0.3% and giving a higher push to the dollar. Our country is a beautiful example of the contemporary. The recent narrowing of the interest rate differential between India and the United States is a classic example of how emerging economies have grown less appealing for currency trade. Despite the RBI's intervention, the rupee exceeded 81.50, indicating India's sensitivity to U.S. interest rates and opening the door to further devaluation. The risk of large capital outflows, currency depreciation, and extended imported inflation has reached its apex. The increase in lending rates by banks and the rising tendency of FIIs to "outflow" causes foreign exchange reserves to dwindle below their current levels, resulting in rupee depreciation. The consequences are multifaceted since businesses involved in cross-border activity have to suffer increased import costs and riskier geopolitical uncertainties, directly impairing the country's current account deficit. In such a case, the RBI has decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to keep the economy from collapsing. Given the global policy environment shift, would not rising central banks in a comparable circumstance be driven to do the same? Though Powell's remarks about the Federal Reserve's job to ensure that higher inflation is not incorporated into future economic decisionmaking hopes that the future has no other issues to deal with other than high inflation can only be prayed for.

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Kanniguli Saumya Suresh IIM Ranchi 1st Position Fintellect- Article Writing Competition

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