Average car emissions stay same despite more accurate WLTP test

Moves to reduce air pollution stepped up as EVs increase in popularity. Matt de Prez reports

verage car CO2 emissions for the Fleet200 stand at 109g/km this year, exactly the same as they were in 2018.

It’s a surprising result, given the challenges the industry has faced in the past 18 months, as car emissions testing underwent a total overhaul and all vehicles had to be re-homologated under the Worldwide harmonised Light vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).

The latest Fleet200 figures are based on NEDC testing and those derived under the ‘halfway house’ NEDC-correlated system, as manufacturers aren’t required to publish the actual WLTP value until April 2020, when it will be used for taxation purposes.

NEDC-correlated figures are higher on average by 10-20% and the full WLTP could double that increase. This should be reflected in fleets’ average CO 2 emissions next year, which are likely to rise as they begin to renew their company car fleets after a self-induced pause while many waited for the Government to reveal future benefit-in-kind (BIK) taxation tables.

Not all industry sectors saw their emissions stay static year-on-year. Primary, manufacturing and construction increased by 1g/km, business services was up by 3g/km and public sector rose by 2g/km, despite best efforts to steer staff into cleaner cars.

That said, with many fleets and company car drivers holding off from replacing vehicles, it would’ve limited the emissions increase caused by switching from an NEDC-tested car to one with a NEDC-correlated figure.

One sector has enjoyed substantial success in reducing CO 2 emissions, however: transport and distribution, which is down on average by 9g/km to 105g/km. It is the lowest average from any industry sector.

Sixteen fleets – equating to 11.7% of the Fleet200 – are averaging below 100g/km, marginally down on last year’s 19 fleets which was 12.8% of the total. Two, DPD and Calor Gas, are below 50g/km.

DPD, with half its 750 company cars on an employee car ownership (ECO) scheme, is seeing staff opt for electric and plug-in hybrid cars to maximise the benefit under the funding programme.

However, even DPD’s performance pales against Calor Gas, which has average CO 2 emissions of just 25g/km. Calor also operates an ECO scheme, which accounts for 52% of its 123 company cars.

Lex Autolease, the UK’s largest leasing company, financing almost 400,000 cars and vans, has seen

orders for pure electric cars increase by 123% since the new BIK tax rates were announced over the summer.

Zenith reported an even bigger surge in pure EV orders, up 211%, while Alphabet and Total Motion both reported double-digit increases. The latest Fleet Intelligence Pulse report, which supports the Fleet200 analysis, suggests that fleet operators expect the number of hybrid car models on their fleets to increase by more than any other powertrain in the next 12 months.

Predictions are weighted towards hybrid models, with 9% of fleets expecting to take more on next year. Plug-in hybrid and pure electric cars are tied, with 4% of companies forecasting they will account for a greater share of fleet next year.

Primary, manufacturer, construction fleets are the most positive about alternative fuels for cars, especialy electric vehicles, although the public sector is swaying the most towards plug-in hybrids, with 6% expecting to take on more (notwithstanding the amorphous other services companies, at 7%).

However, with hybrids accounting for just 6% of vehicles on company fleets, there is still a long way to go before it takes over from diesel, which currently makes up 46% of cars in the survey.

Nevertheless, the decline of diesel has been rapid thus far, with a further drop of 11% expected in the next 12 months. Despite this, manufacturers are continuing to push models fuelled from the black pump.

Volvo, a brand that previously outlined a strategy away from the fuel has just introduced a range of mild-hybrid diesel engines across its range.

Audi is also pressing on with diesel models, making the seemingly controversial decision to power its new S4 performance saloon with a diesel engine.

Another lifeline for diesel is RDE2 – a more stringent real-world emissions test. Vehicle that pass forgo the 4% diesel surcharge, bringing BIK rates to a more attractive level.

Only a handful of models have made the grade so far, however.

Looking at van fleets, fleet operators are expecting a 10% decline in the number of diesel vehicles on their fleets in the next 12 months, with hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric models filling the void.

It’s the largest fleets that expect to ditch diesel by the largest percentage (18%) and those businesses in the primary, manufacturing, construction sector.

However, uptake expectations for alternative fuel vans are lower than for cars, primarily due to the fewer options available on the market.

In fact, three industry segments expect to reduce the number of hybrids on fleet next year. Business services fleets have gone for the hat-trick, with reversals forecast on hybrids, plug-ins and pure electric vans. Meanwhile, the public sector and transport/distribution operators do not expect any change in the number of EVs they are running in the van fleets.

Moving to electric vehicles remains high on the agenda of many fleets, including the likes of British Gas and Royal Mail which are part of the UK’s largest electric van trial, Optimise Prime.

It will see 3,000 electric vehicles in operation during its three-year project life, funded through Hitachi with partner UK Power Networks assessing any issues on grid capacity and demand. The findings will be shared with other fleet operators to help hasten the uptake of electric vehicles.

For now, vehicle choice remains a challenge for LCV operators wanting to switch to electric.

New emissions targets will come into force in 2021 which could result in manufacturers facing huge fines

There are few electric vans available to buy and none offers the flexibility and practicality of a diesel vehicle. Batteries are heavy and you need a large one to get a decent range, especially if you factor in using the vehicle fully-laden.

But, a heavy battery affects payload and while it offers a longer range, the weight equally penalises the maximum amount of miles the van can travel.

It’s even more difficult for HGV operators, where electrification is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Instead, operators are looking for alternative ways to cut emissions.

The John Lewis Partnership will switch from diesel-powered heavy trucks to 100% renewable biomethane-powered versions by 2028, cutting its HGV emissions by more than 80%.

Once converted, the fleet of 500 Waitrose & Partners and John Lewis & Partners delivery trucks will save more than 49,000 tonnes of CO 2 every year – equivalent to the carbon footprint of just over 6,000 UK households.

Justin Laney, partner and general manager of central transport, John Lewis Partnership, says: “We have been pioneering the adoption of longdistance biomethane trucks in the UK. Scaling this up to our entire heavy truck fleet will deliver significant environmental and operational benefits.

“Five biomethane trucks produce the same emissions as one diesel lorry and they are also much quieter, helping reduce not only greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution but also noise pollution in our cities.”