Truck Crash Predictors ATRI study finds yield, turn signal failures predict future crashes

By Steve Brawner Contributing Writer

How can motor carriers reduce the likelihood that one of their drivers will be involved in a future crash? Train them to yield the right-of-way and to use their turn signal.

That’s according to the American Transportation Research Institute’s recently released study, “Predicting Truck Crash Involvement: 2022 Update.”

Researchers analyzed 583,805 truck drivers who had 38,797 FMCSA-reported crashes between Jan. 1, 2017 and Dec. 31, 2018. ATRI conducted previous crash predictor studies in 2005, 2011 and 2018.

This most recent report saw an increase in the strength of the relationship between driver history and crashes.

It found that a failure to yield the right-ofway violation was associated with a 141% increase in the likelihood of a future crash. That was a 39.6% increase in likelihood over the most recent report in 2018.

Three other behaviors were associated with a future crash likelihood increase of more than 100%. Second was failure to use/improper signal conviction. It increased crash likelihood by 116%, which was a 41.5% increase from 2018. A past crash was associated with a 113% increase, which was an increase of 28.4%. A reckless driving violation was associated with a 104% increase, which was an 8.8% decrease from 2018.

The rest of the top 10 statistically significant predictors of future crash involvement included the following behaviors:

• Failure to obey traffic sign conviction: 85%

• Failure to keep in proper lane conviction: 78%

• Improper or erratic lane changes conviction: 77%

• Reckless/careless/inattentive/negligent driving conviction: 62%

• Improper lane/location conviction: 61%

• A failure to obey traffic signal/light conviction: 55%

Dan Murray, ATRI’s senior vice president and the report’s co-author, said there weren’t any surprises in this year’s top 10 list. This year’s most predictive behavior, a failure to yield the right-of-way violation, was the second most likely predictor of a future crash in 2018.

“Those truck drivers who have these behaviors and then have multiple crashes sometimes, it’s really sort of almost a level of conscientiousness or lack thereof because they’re just egregious enough that you sort of get nervous about the top behaviors,” he said.

“Can those behaviors be trained out of a driver? It’s hard to say. Most of them can, and that’s where there’s hope.”

A failure to use/improper signal conviction was the second most predictive behavior in 2022 after it was fourth in 2018 and first in 2011. Murray said that behavior is indicative of a larger attitude toward safety.

”I think it’s carelessness or lack of conscientious that’s sort of wired into the driver,” he said. “You know, who cares about a turn signal? It’s not that big a deal, but it generates crashes, and so think it’s critical that we rewire a driver’s attitude about what’s important and what makes a difference. And somebody who just doesn’t think a turn signal, for instance, is a big deal, that’s somebody who either needs to stop driving a truck or needs to get retrained.”

Combining the four reports starting in 2005, reckless driving was the most stable predictor at 114%, followed by failure to use/improver signal conviction at 89%, past crash at 88%, failure to yield right-of-way violation at 85%, and improper or erratic lane changes conviction at 79%. A past crash and an improper or erratic lane changes conviction have ranked in the top 10 in all four ATRI studies, the report said.

Other high-ranking crash predictors were as follows:

• Disqualified driver violation: 53%

• A false or no log book violation: 49%

• Speeding 1 to 15 miles over the speed limit conviction: 48%

• Hours-of-service violation: 47%

• Speeding violation: 47%

• Any conviction: 46%

• Improper turn conviction: 45%

• Following too close violation: 44%

• Any moving violation: 43%

• A speeding more than 15 miles over the speed limit conviction: 40%

The report found that of the 38,797 crashes analyzed, 65.6%, or 25,451, were towaway crashes, while another 32.3%, or 12,538, were injury crashes and 2.1%, or 808, involved a fatality.

The report comes as fatal truck-involved crashes have increased 7.2% since 2016, while fatal truck-involved crashes per 100 million vehicle miles traveled have increased 2.8%. Fatal large truck-involved crashes had fallen to about 3,000 per million vehicle miles traveled in 2009, but they have been on an upward trajectory since then, reaching 4,479 in 2019. That number was higher than the average of 4,334 between 1975 and 2019.

Murray noted that the vast majority of truck drivers – nearly 94% – were not involved in a crash during the two-year period studied, while 5.8% were involved in one and .32% were involved in two. Eighty-nine drivers were involved in three or more crashes. Murray noted that most crashes involving a passenger vehicle are not the fault of the commercial truck driver.

He said that of the hundreds of federal motor carrier safety regulations on the books, only a small number are statistically related to safety and crash preventability. The report tells fleets what behaviors they should really care about and how they should focus their training. Ideally, the report also should inform regulators about which rules are really necessary, he said. Elsewhere, the report found that drivers under age 21 were statistically less likely than drivers over age 24 to be involved in a crash. It found 42 of the 1,723 drivers under age 21, or 2.4%, were involved in a crash, compared to 6.9% of the 475,052 drivers over 24 years old. Murray said drivers ages 21-24 were not included to create a buffer between the two groups being compared.

The results invite further study because the sample size of younger drivers is small. However, Murray said the research shows promise for an industry dealing with a driver shortage. Drivers’ average age in the report is 46, which is three years older than the average age in the 2005 report utilizing data from 200104. In this latest report, 52.7% of the drivers were ages 41 to 60.

Murray said other data has shown that young drivers of four-wheelers are more likely than older ones to take risks and act impetuously. But that’s not what the data says for young truck drivers, who already can legally drive intrastate in most states but generally are barred from crossing state lines. Looking at those numbers, Murray said, “The safety concern seems to be more emotional than it is empirical, to be honest.”

Murray said that combining those numbers with the active safety systems being pushed by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration could allow younger drivers to be “some of the shining stars on the road in the right driving conditions.” Meanwhile, the report found that female

2022

drivers were 14% less likely than males to be involved in a crash. At the same time, females were less likely than males to be guilty of 12 behaviors. Males were 221% more likely to have an improper lane conviction, 91% more likely to have a medical certificate violation, 76% more likely to have a seat belt violation, and 57% more likely to have a driving too fast for conditions conviction.

Among the other behaviors males were more likely to be involved in were the following:

– Failure to obey traffic sign conviction: 51%

– Hours-of-service violation: 42%

– Failure to obey traffic light or sign conviction: 39%

– Any out-of-service violation: 34%

– False/no logbook violation: 33%

– Failure to obey traffic control device violation: 29%

– Any conviction: 23%

– Speeding more than 15 miles over speed limit conviction: 19%

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There was no statistical difference in six behaviors in which women were safer in 2018: reckless/careless/negligent driving conviction; speeding 1 to 15 miles over the speed limit conviction; following too closely conviction; improper lane or location conviction; speeding violation; and any moving violation.

While women were 14% less likely to be involved in a crash in this most recent update, they were 20% less likely in the 2018 report. Murray said the gap appeared to have closed because women had fallen back, not because male drivers were catching up.

Still, the 14% difference is significant. Women are a mostly untapped labor pool of statistically safer drivers, but to attract them to the industry, more safe truck parking with fencing, lighting and convenient bathrooms is needed, Murray said.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics found that in 2019, females comprised 6.7% of U.S. truck drivers, but they comprised only 2.7% of the inspected drivers in 2019 that were used for ATRI’s analysis. ATRI researchers looked at hundreds of thousands of inspection records and considered numerous theories – that female drivers work for safer carriers; that they are waved through at inspection stations more frequently than males; that they drive bettermaintained trucks; that they avoid winter conditions; and that they are more cautious. The research didn’t seem to support any of these theories.

Instead, the most likely explanation is the type of routes females drive. ATRI’s data found that females made up only 2.69% of drivers who operate on roadways involving inspection stations. Instead, women were more likely to hold Class B licenses (5.1%) and Class C licenses (4.3%). ATRI along with the Women in Trucking Association collected surveys from 92 female drivers along with 21 male drivers. According to survey responses, female drivers were more inclined to seek jobs where they would be home at the end of the day.

The report measured changes in violation%ages between the 2018 report, which utilized data from 2013-14, and the 2022 report, which used data from 2017-18. Traffic enforcement violations increased 288.3%, vehicle suspension violations increased 125.5%, and wheels/studs/clamps violations increased 35.5%. Hours-of-service violations fell between the two results. State/local hoursof-service violations decreased 87.5%, from

7,291 to 911, while 60/70/80 hours violations decreased 59% and 10/15 hours violations decreased 50.7%. “No log book – log not current” violations fell 31.8%. Overall, hours-ofservice violations fell from 268,801 to 203,532. In this most recent report, the most common violation involved lighting, which accounted for 16.3% of all violations. However, lighting violations fell 17.6%, from 352,928 in the 2018 report to 290,899 in this most recent one. The report theorized that the increased use of longer-lasting LED lights could be an explanation.

Brake violations also decreased. “Brakes – out of adjustment” violations fell 15.3%, while brakes – all others fell 6.2%. The report theorized that the increased use of disc brakes, which are harder to inspect, may be a reason why violations have fallen.

Alix Miller, Florida Trucking Association’s president and CEO, said FTA will incorporate the study’s findings in the training opportunities it offers.

“ATRI’s studies always inform what we do at an association level in training and communicating with our members,” she said. “They always provide vital information to keep the industry strong.” FTN