(May 2011 – May 2013)
by
Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, CON HONOURABLE MINISTER OF NATIONAL PLANNING PRESENTED AT THE MINISTERIAL PLATFORM ON JUNE 24, 2013
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Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, CON HONOURABLE MINISTER OF NATIONAL PLANNING 4
NATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION BUILDING
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OUTLINE‌ 1.0:
INTRODUCTION
2.0:
The NPC Mandate
3.0:
State of the Nigerian Economy
4.0:
Key Achievements of the National Planning Commission, May 2011 to Date - Major Reform Initiatives and Outcomes - Achievements on Core Mandates
5.0:
Outlook and Prospects of the National Planning Commission, May 2013 - 2015
6.0:
Conclusion
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SECTION 1
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INTRODUCTION
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1.0
Introduction
• Ensuring effective realisation of the objectives of NV20:2020 Has reinforced the need for institutionalising strategic planning in Nigeria during May 2011 to date • The strategic planning framework of the country is anchored on Nigeria’s Vision (NV) 20:2020 • Overarching objective of NV20:2020 is for Nigeria to become one of the 20 largest economies in the world by year 2020 • To be actualised through implementation of three medium term strategic plans 1st NIP, 2010 - 2013 2nd NIP, 2014 - 2017 3rd NIP, 2018 - 2020 And the Transformation Agenda (TA) 2011-2015
• The Commission is responsible for the coordination of strategic planning process of the country Including monitoring and evaluation of policies, programmes and projects v
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1.0
Introduction (Cont’d)
• NPC is established by Act No 12 of 1992 Subsequently amended by Act No 71 of 1993 To determine and advise on policies that will best promote growth and development of Nigeria
Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, CON Honourable Minister/Deputy Chairman National Planning Commission
• Supported by three parastatals in actualising the objective: - National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) - Centre for Management Development (CMD) - Nigerian Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER)
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1.0
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Introduction (Cont’d)
S.G (NBS)
D-G (CMD)
NBS is the apex statistical agency for all the three tiers of Government and is the coordinator of the National Statistical System
CMD co-ordinates the activities of, and gives proper direction to, institutions engaged in training and retraining of managerial personnel in Nigeria. It stimulates, promotes and coordinates management development for the achievement of management excellence in every state of Nigeria and beyond
D-G (NISER) NISER was established to consistently generate credible knowledge through quality research, conduct specialised training and consultancy services while interacting with relevant segments of Nigerian society in the task of national development
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SECTION 2
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The NPC Mandate
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2.0 The NPC MANDATE
Policy research and advice to national and sub-national governments
Formulation and coordination of national development plans Including oversight of the implementation of TA and the NV20:2020
Monitoring and evaluation of policies, programmes and projects
Managing multi-lateral, bi-lateral and regional economic co-operation Including development aid and technical assistance
Carry out surveillance on the economy
Coordinating and production of official statistics & managing the National Statistical System
Capacity development for efficient and effective utilization of resources
Generation of credible knowledge for national development
Serves as secretariat to the National Economic Council
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SECTION 3
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State of the Nigerian Economy
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3.0:
STATE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
The NPC has been actively involved in the economic management process of the country during May 2011 to date - Role undertaken through the implementation of core mandate Coordinated effective development and implementation of the TA and NV20:2020 Projects monitoring and evaluation HMNP is key member of the National Economic Management Team (NEMT) and the Economic Management Implementation Team (EMIT) • The Nigerian economy recorded remarkable progress in the implementation of the TA and NV20:2020 in the last two years -
The various macroeconomic polices implemented have broadly yielded positive outcomes 14
3.0:
STATE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY Cont’d) GDP Performance
Average growth 2011 &2012
• Robust average GDP growth of 7.01% was recorded in 2011 and 2012; •- Despite the continued slow down in the global economy •GDP growth rate stood at 6.56 percent at the end of the Q1 2013; •Eight out of the fourteen broad sectors surpassed their growth targets in the TA • Solid minerals • Financial Institution & Insurance • Building & Construction • Transport • Education • Roads, Estate • Public Administration • Other Services •Growth driven largely by the non-oil sector of the economy • Agriculture - 27.64% • Wholesale and retail trade – 28.4% • Telecommunications - 24.38% 15
3.0: STATE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY (Cont’d) NV20:2020 on course: - Nigeria moved eight positions in the past three years in global ranking on GDP basis (World Bank/IMF ranking) Moved from 44th in 2010 to 36th position in 2012 • Recorded highest FDI inflow of $7.01 billion in 2012 overtaking South Africa for the first time After a remarkable rise of $8.9 billion in 2011 • Performance is expected to be sustained in the medium term
• Given the massive reform measures being implemented
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3.1:
STATE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY Development in Price Level
Inflation Rate May, 2011 to May 2013 16 14
High but Stable Inflation rate
•Through single digit inflation target yet to be achieved • - Significant success was recorded over the review period
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Per cent
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Head line Core
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Food
Inflation within the single digit bracket
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2011
2012
M3
M1
M11
M9
M7
M5
M3
M1
M11
M9
M7
M5
M3
M1
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•Headline Inflation (Y-on-y) decelerated to 12.0% in 2012 from 12.4% in May 2011, . •As at March, April and May 2013, Headline Inflation (yon-y) stood at 8.6 and 9.1 percent respectively.
2013
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3.2:
STATE OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY – The Capital Market •Market capitalization rose to 8.98 trillion in 2012 from N6.55 trillion in 2011 (37.3% increase). - Stood at N12.07 trillion as at end May 2013. - Bond market expanded significantly by 55.61 percent to N5.82 trillion in 2012 from N3.74 trillion in 2011. - All-Share Index rose by 35% from 20,773.98 in 2011 to 28,078.81 in 2012. •Over 37,794 as at end May 2013 18
3.3:
State of the Nigerian Economy – The External Sector Growth in non-oil exports averaged 29.57% in 2011 and 2012, surpassing TA target of 25.92%;
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Growth in the Balance of Trade was 13.01%, - 1.52% short of the TA target of 14.53%
43.83 156 40 32.34
FDI averaged US$7.97 billion par annual in 2011 and 2012 from US$6.10 billion in 2010. Still the highest in Africa; Home remittances increased from US$19.20 billion in 2009 to US$20.61 billion in 2011 and US$21.89 billion in 2012;
Gross external reserves improved from US$32.34 billion in 2010, to US$48.8 billion as at April 26, 2013.
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48.57
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32.64
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30 152 20 150 10
148
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146 2010
2011
2012
2013 Q1
External Reserves (US$’ Billion)
Exchange Rate (N/$)
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3.3:
State of the Nigerian Economy – The External Sector (Cont’d)
While much progress has been made, especially with the macroeconomy - There remains some challenges Translating the robust growth rates to jobs Issue of security Addressing the issue of unemployment/under employment • Good news is that the TA focuses at addressing the issues - Through the following key initiatives: SURE-P YouWin Agric Transformation Agenda Quarterly job survey/mapping Massive infrastructure development in the Roads, Rail, Aviation and Power • Other sectoral reforms 20
SECTION 4
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Key Achievements of the National Planning Commission, May 2011 to Date 4
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4.0:
Key Achievements of the National Planning Commission, May 2011 - Date
Over the last two years, NPC has championed various strategic initiatives - At the Federal - And State levels - Implemented several reforms and initiatives ďƒ˜Leading to improved outcomes 22
4.1
Major Reform Initiatives and Outcomes
Institutionalization of Strategic Planning Process at the Federal level - Cascading the strategic planning to subnational levels and MDAs - Professionalization of DPRs at the federal level - Conducting Needs Assessment of States’ Planning and Statistical Agencies for enhanced service delivery Improvement in human and infrastructural capacity of the institutions - MDAs and States are encouraged to develop the culture of strategic planning - To align budgetary submissions of MDAs to the plan provisions Institutionalisation of Performance Management System & Contracting - Aimed at measuring ministerial and individual officers’ performance, against negotiated performance targets With the introduction of the PMS, the public service has recorded improvement & clarity in the alignment of institutional & individual performance 23
4.1
Major Reform Initiatives and Outcomes (Cont’d)
Progress made under PMS are: Establishment of specialised M&E Department in NPC and M&E units in the MDAs Development of KPIs for tracking service delivery of MDAs Development of performance agreements for Ministers & key government officials Signing of 2012 Performance Contract Agreement between the Ministers and Mr. President Led to regular ministerial performance reporting at the FEC
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4.1
Major Reforms Initiatives and Outcomes (Cont’d)
• Reform of Data Generating Process spearheaded by NBS • Encouraged the establishment of States’ Statistical Bureaux Number of States’ Statistical Bureaux increased from 2 in 2010 to 8 in 2013: Embarked on States’ GDP Computation programme - This involves the disaggregation of economic activities by States - SGDP computation process is to be implemented in 2 phases Phase 1 is ongoing in 7 States Results from the 7 Pilot States are expected to be ready by end July/Aug 2013 • NBS has began the process for rebasing GDP in line with global best practice • Development Assistance Database (DAD) currently being developed at NPC - 1st phase of the programme is completed - To facilitate the tracking of ODA inflows into the country
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4.2 Achievements in Core Mandate- Policy Research and Advice to National Government
Conducted several policy based Research & Studies
• - Educational Manpower Supply Study in Nigeria, Phase 1 • - The Scrutinized Elite: A Deconstruction of “Cabals” in the Nigerian Political Economy • - Social Protection Policy & Bill Preparation Processes in Nigeria • - Study on Effective ness of Expatriate Quota Utilization in manufacturing Industries in Nigeria • - Scalable Model for Demand-Led Sanitation Approaches in Africa • - Agent-Based Modeling of Herders’ Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies Regarding Water Resources in the Context of Climate Change • Informal sector study is ongoing
• Underlook Policy Dialogues • - 1st Annual NISER Policy Dialogue on Social-Economic Development • - Review of the Performance of the Economy in six geopolitical zones • - Assessment of impact of flood on the economy
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4.2
Achievement on Core Mandates - Policy Research and Advice to National Governments (Cont’d)
Picture A
Picture B Picture A: Workshop on Development of Sugar and Wheat Value Chains in Nigeria – Lagos 23 February 2012 Picture B: The First Annual NISER National Policy Dialogue on Socio- Economic Development held on 28th – 29 November 2012, Abuja Picture C: Participants at the NISER Research Seminar Series “Rural poverty reduction under a changing climate: Is Agriculture still the Key in Nigeria?” – 12 February 2013, Ibadan
Picture C
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4.3
Ensuring Effective Formulation and Coordination of National Development Plans
Transformation Agenda (20112015)
Transformation Agenda Mid-term Review of the Transformation Agenda
•Coordinated the production of the TA -Key policies, programmes and projects to be implemented by the Federal Government, 2011-2015 Guides annual budgetary allocation to MDAs -To speed up actualisation of NV20:2020 •Production of the mid term review of the TA - Review provides comprehensive appraisal of the first two years of this Administration Allows for a reflection on progress made to chart a way forward Consistent with global best practice and principle of accountability - Detailed edition of the mid term review of the TA is on NPC’s website-www.npc.gov.ng
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4.3
Ensuring Effective Formulation and Coordination of National Development Plan (Cont’d)
National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (2014 – 2043)
1st National Implementation Plan (NIP (2010 – 2013)
•NPC is responsible for the development of a 30- year National Integrated Infrastructure Masterplan (NIIMP) (2014-2043) -Working closely with all the relevant stakeholders, including the Development Partners •The final NIIMP document to be ready by August 2013 -Interim NIIMP has been produced to harvest quick win infrastructure projects To feed into the 2014 budget •1st NIP, 2010-13 is currently being implemented •A Mid Term Review of 1st NIP been carried out -In line with international best practice -Report to be presented to FEC -Outcome of the review to serve as critical input for development of 2nd NIP, 2014-201729
4.3
Ensuring Effective Formulation and Coordination of National Development Plan (Cont’d)
•Improving capacity of MDAs to deliver on plan formulation and implementation - NPC organises conferences and technical sessions for Directors & Senior officials of Department of PRS in MDAs - 2012 edition held in Katsina - 2013 conference planning is ongoing - To be held in Ibadan
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4.4
Institutionalising, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System for Enhanced Performance
•NPC spearheaded the institutionalisation of the M&E system for enhanced service delivery •The key activities undertaken from May 2011 to date are highlighted in the matrix below
Joint development of KPI with MDAs
Performance agreements signed and cascaded
Data Verification Process for 2011 M&E Performance Report
Production of 2011 Annual M&E Performance Report
Production of Annual and 1st Year 2011 and 2012 Economic Performance Reports
M&E Capacity Building/Training Events
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4.4
Institutionalising, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System for Enhanced Performance (Cont’d)
•Undertakinge Joint Monitoring and Evaluation of National and Subnational programmes National and subnational health projects
2006-2011 Tertiary Education Trust Fund Projects
Federal Government water projects in the State
Special Intervention Fund for Agriculture (SIFA) projects
Community-based Agricultural Rural Development projects
DFID Education sector support programme in Nigeria (ESSPIN)
Partnership for transforming health systems programmes (PATH2)
UNDFA projects in eleven States
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4.4 Institutionalising Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) for Enhanced Performance (Cont’d) Picture on Inter-ministerial inspection of national water projects – South East Zone February 2012
The team with Contractor @ the Greater Onitsha water supply scheme
Dilapidated office block of Water pumping station
Anambra River inlet for water pumping station, Feb 2012
Headrace canal inspection, Feb 2012
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444.4:
Institutionalising Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System for Enhanced Delivery Service (Cont’d) Picture on Projects – Tertiary Education Trust Fund Monitoring, April 2012
TETF funded classroom
Vehicle donated by TETF
TETF ICT funded projects
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4.5:
Enhancing Development Assistance Coordination
•Improving Donor Coordination in Nigeria •Through active participation in innovative financing initiatives - Nigeria emerged Presidency of the Leading Group on Innovative Financing for Development - With HMNP as focal person - Nigeria is leading the group to propose innovative financing resolution at the upcoming UN General Aassembly in September 2013 Review of 488 joint/bi-National agreements (bi-lateral cooperation) Review of ODA policy 2012 - 2015
Producing operational manual for Development Assistance Database (DAD) Development of a competencies DAD framework
Regular Donor Coordination meetings held under the coordination of HMNP Official Engagements with INGOs, WAMI,UNDP, World Bank and other donor agencies
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4.5:
Enhancing Development Assistance Coordination (Cont’d)
•Enhanced Capacity building programme for officials through bi-lateral agreements
GTZ - 15 people on Performance Management (Malaysia)
China, Korea, India training programmes
IDPs focal persons trained on DAD 36
4.5:
Enhancing Development Assistance Coordination (Cont’d)
Africa Human Development Report, 21 May, 2012
Dialogue with Development Partners – May 2012
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4.5:
Enhancing Development Assistance Coordination (Cont’d)
Signing of 10th EDF Agreement with the EU, 29 October, 2012
Signing of Bi-lateral Agreement with the Democratic Republic of Germany, 2012 38
4.6:
Improving Data Generation and Coordination of Statistical Systems
• Improving data generation at national and subnational levels •NBS has developed a framework for improved and better coordination of the national statistical system •Timely production of regular statistical series - CPI and Inflation report (Monthly) - Economic Review / Outlook (Annually) - General Household Survey (Annually) - GDP Report (Quarterly/Annually) - Foreign Trade News (Quarterly/Annually) - Access to ICT Report (Annually) - Sectoral Wages & Emoluments (Annually) - Unemployment (Annually,>> Quarterly) - Gender Statistics Newsletter (Quarterly) - National Literacy Survey (Annually) -Consumption Pattern in Nigeria (Annually) •NBS has strengthened its ICT infrastructure - Over 20 States’ statistical agencies have been linked to the National Data Centre
4.7:
Capacity development and Training for efficient and effective utilization of resources
• The Centre for Management Development delivered several training and capacity building programmes for public and private sector officials during the last 2 years Conducted over 8000 management training programmes during 2011-2013 Undertook accreditation visits to management trainers and institutions Training manuals developed for several specialised courses
Carried out training needs assessment of all MDAs and States’ DPRS’ Undertook trainers and training Institutions’ awareness raising seminars Conducted train the trainers workshops 40
4.7:
Capacity development and training for efficient and effective utilization of resources (Cont’d)
Capacity building programme for the police, 2012
PPP capacity building programme for ICRC , 27 – 30 August 2012 41
4.8:
Strengthening the Plan-Budget Link
• Ensuring capital budgetary proposals of Federal MDAs are aligned with priorities of TA and V20:2020: - Transformation Agenda as basis for 2012 and 2013 budgets Also to guide 2014 -2015 budgets
Budget outcomes and economic performance to be enhanced in 2013 and beyond 4.9: Improving Economic Management at Subnational Level • Critical Role of NPC in facilitating improved economic management at the subnational level - NPC as secretariat for monthly National Economic Council meetings - Monitoring and evaluation of specific FGN projects -Water Resources Projects -TET Fund projects -Other projects 42
4.9:
Improving Economic Management at the Subnational Level (Cont’d)
• Coordinating activities of Joint Planning Board and National Council on Development Planning Assisting State Governments to establish and strengthen their State Planning Commissions and State Bureaux of Statistics for enhanced planning and quality data production. Positive results in virtually all zones of the Federation, with many States’ planning and statistical offices now up and running
4.10: Economic Performance Tracking • To enhance tracking of implementation of our plans: Revived production of Nigeria’s Economic Performance Report Economic reports produced on bi-annual and annual basis Stocktaking of macroeconomic and sectoral performance 43
4.10: Economic Performance Tracking (Cont’d) • Four reports published in the last one year Annual report for 2010 Half year report for 2011 Annual report for 2011 Annual report for 2012 Performance monitoring report of Federal MDAs for 2010 and 2011
• Reports received commendation by all stakeholders in the Nigerian economy, including the media
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4.11
Enhancing Public Private Partnership in Nigeria
•Deepening relations with the private sector, in particular the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 17th – 18th Nigerian Economic Summit (NES17) organised by NESG in close collaboration with NPC -NES#17 November 2011 -NES#18 – December 2012 The Summit, as platform for key stakeholders from public and private sectors to discuss and articulate strategies for development •Planning for NES#19 in progress - Expected to take place in September 2013
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4.12: •
In pursuit of its reform mantra of becoming a pace setting agency, NPC has: -
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Reforming the NPC to Deliver its Mandate
Enhanced staff capacity for improved service delivery
Improved IT infrastructure , e.g. Enhanced public access to all reports, including the NV20:2020, 1st NIP, Transformation Agenda, Economic reports, M&E reports and key policy outputs of the NPC available via website
Increased ICT use by all staff
Intranet and Internet access for all staff
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4.12:
Reforming the NPC to Deliver its Mandate (Cont’d)
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Regular Management meetings, chaired by the HMNP to enhance decision making
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Encouraging needs-driven training and capacity building
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Streamlining Knowledge Management into our processes
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Encouraging transformational management in the organisation
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5.0 Outlook and Prospects of The National Planning Commission May 2013-2015 •Outlook and prospects in the medium term very bright
• Key benchmarks and targets for May 2013 – 2015, to: -Consolidate gains made in the last two years -Deepen the institutionalisation of strategic planning process at the Federal and subnational levels Facilitate the realisation of the goals and objectives of TA and NV20:2020
-Deepen performance management system in the country -Coordinating the implementation of the 30 year National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (NIIMP)
-Development and effective implementation of the 2nd National Implementation Plan (NIP 2014-2017 Strengthening the link between the annual budgets and the National plans 48
5.0 Outlook and Prospects of The National Planning Commission May 2013-2015 (Cont’d)
•Other key targets are: -Ensuring effective coordination of Official Development Assistance inflow to the country -Professionalisation of the planning cadre And the repositioning of PRS Departments in the MDAs for enhanced service delivery -Complete the computation of States’ GDP Institutionalise process for computation at the State level on annual basis
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6.0
Conclusion
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NPC has succeeded in achieving significant aspects of its mandate - Especially with respect to output and outcome targets for May 2011 to Date
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NPC’s outlook and prospects in the short and medium term remain very bright
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The outlook to be shaped by the following key targets - Institutionalisation of the strategic planning process at all levels - Deepening performance management system in the country - Ensuring evidence based polices and decision making - Strengthening effective link between annual budgets and National plan
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
421, Constitution Avenue, Central Business District, Abuja. Website: www.npc.gov.ng
Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman, CON HONOURABLE MINISTER OF NATIONAL PLANNING 51