HLP_2009_12_Prsnttn_InfoSessionNaturalPatternsoftheEasternSlopesofAB_Andison

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Natural Patterns of the Eastern Slopes of Alberta FRI ND Program Information Session Edmonton, Alberta December 9th, 2009 David Andison


Water Caribou Forestry Recreation Oil and gas MPB threat Wildfire threat ‌


Relative Lightning Density on the Hinton Wood Products FMA


Natural Subregions smush up against the mountains.


Fire Size Distributions 50 Montane Subalpine

45 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Forest Patch Size-Class (ha)

10 ,0 00 +

0

510 ,0 0

25, 00 0

12, 00 0

00

60 01, 0

260 0

80 -2 00

40 -8 0

140

0

<1

Percent Area

40


Yet, How Much Do We REALLY Know About the Disturbance History Here? For example: “stand-replacing” fires.

Fire Size & Severity

“standmaintaining” fires.

Fire Frequency


StandMaintaining Regime

Mixed Regime % Killed

14 0

16 0

18 0

20 0

14 0 16 0 18 0 20 0

16 0 18 0 20 0

12 0

10 0

80

60

40

20

14 0

0

12 0

0 12 0

20 10 0

40

10 0

60 80

80

80

100 60

0

60

20

40

40

40

60

20

80

20

Y e a rs

0

100

0

% Killed

StandReplacing Regime

% Killed

100 80

60

40

20 0


What if‌ 100

60 40 20

Fire control starts here,

0 20

0 18

0 16

0 14

0 12

0 10

80

60

40

20

0 0

% Killed

80

‌& we are here?


If This is True, Some Potential Impacts Are: • Tree lines have advanced (east). • Open meadow:forest ratios have decreased. • Duff layers are thicker (fuel, MSE, germination) • Soil is colder. • Understorey species composition has shifted. • Tree species composition has shifted. • Stand densities have increased. • Habitat has shifted. • Fine fuel has increased. • MPB risk has increased. • …


Extent of mixed severity fires as we believed circa 1990.


Extent of mixed severity fires as we believed circa 2008.


2009 pilot study

Possible extent of actual mixed severity fires?


? 2009 pilot study

Possible extent of actual mixed severity fires?

?


Another example: If MPB has not been here before,

Disturbance Patterns

Landscape Condition

Biological Consequences

• Type • Frequency & Periodicity • Size & Shape • Severity • Tendencies • Seral-stage levels • Old forest patch sizes • Edge density • Coarse woody debris • Suspended sediment & O2…

• Fire risk • MPB risk • Water quality • Caribou habitat • Grizzly bear habitat…

What sorts of landscape conditions and biological responses should we expect?


Grad Student does a simulation analysis of fire sizes.

Agency F does simulation analysis of seralstages levels. Consultant A does intensive field study on fire sizes and frequency. Consultant B borrows best available local knowledge to establish “burn deficits�.

Company X analyses inventory data to determine historical old forest levels.

GoA Agency B does analysis of fire cycles based on available fire occurrence.


The Problem to be Solved: Multiple, unconnected and unequal: • Partners, • Methods, • Data sources, • Available resources, • Criteria / minimum standards, • Needs and objectives, • Knowledge levels, • Indicators, and • Language.


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