Natural Patterns of the Eastern Slopes of Alberta FRI ND Program Information Session Edmonton, Alberta December 9th, 2009 David Andison
Water Caribou Forestry Recreation Oil and gas MPB threat Wildfire threat ‌
Relative Lightning Density on the Hinton Wood Products FMA
Natural Subregions smush up against the mountains.
Fire Size Distributions 50 Montane Subalpine
45 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Forest Patch Size-Class (ha)
10 ,0 00 +
0
510 ,0 0
25, 00 0
12, 00 0
00
60 01, 0
260 0
80 -2 00
40 -8 0
140
0
<1
Percent Area
40
Yet, How Much Do We REALLY Know About the Disturbance History Here? For example: “stand-replacing” fires.
Fire Size & Severity
“standmaintaining” fires.
Fire Frequency
StandMaintaining Regime
Mixed Regime % Killed
14 0
16 0
18 0
20 0
14 0 16 0 18 0 20 0
16 0 18 0 20 0
12 0
10 0
80
60
40
20
14 0
0
12 0
0 12 0
20 10 0
40
10 0
60 80
80
80
100 60
0
60
20
40
40
40
60
20
80
20
Y e a rs
0
100
0
% Killed
StandReplacing Regime
% Killed
100 80
60
40
20 0
What ifâ&#x20AC;Ś 100
60 40 20
Fire control starts here,
0 20
0 18
0 16
0 14
0 12
0 10
80
60
40
20
0 0
% Killed
80
â&#x20AC;Ś& we are here?
If This is True, Some Potential Impacts Are: • Tree lines have advanced (east). • Open meadow:forest ratios have decreased. • Duff layers are thicker (fuel, MSE, germination) • Soil is colder. • Understorey species composition has shifted. • Tree species composition has shifted. • Stand densities have increased. • Habitat has shifted. • Fine fuel has increased. • MPB risk has increased. • …
Extent of mixed severity fires as we believed circa 1990.
Extent of mixed severity fires as we believed circa 2008.
2009 pilot study
Possible extent of actual mixed severity fires?
? 2009 pilot study
Possible extent of actual mixed severity fires?
?
Another example: If MPB has not been here before,
Disturbance Patterns
Landscape Condition
Biological Consequences
• Type • Frequency & Periodicity • Size & Shape • Severity • Tendencies • Seral-stage levels • Old forest patch sizes • Edge density • Coarse woody debris • Suspended sediment & O2…
• Fire risk • MPB risk • Water quality • Caribou habitat • Grizzly bear habitat…
What sorts of landscape conditions and biological responses should we expect?
Grad Student does a simulation analysis of fire sizes.
Agency F does simulation analysis of seralstages levels. Consultant A does intensive field study on fire sizes and frequency. Consultant B borrows best available local knowledge to establish â&#x20AC;&#x153;burn deficitsâ&#x20AC;?.
Company X analyses inventory data to determine historical old forest levels.
GoA Agency B does analysis of fire cycles based on available fire occurrence.
The Problem to be Solved: Multiple, unconnected and unequal: • Partners, • Methods, • Data sources, • Available resources, • Criteria / minimum standards, • Needs and objectives, • Knowledge levels, • Indicators, and • Language.