2020 Annual Report by Foreign Policy Research Institute

2020 ANNUAL REPORT

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A nation must think before it acts

OUR MISSION

The Foreign Policy Research Institute is dedicated to producing the highest quality scholarship and nonpartisan policy analysis focused on crucial foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States. We educate those who make and influence policy, as well as the public at large, through the lens of history, geography, and culture. Offering Ideas In an increasingly polarized world, we pride ourselves on our tradition of nonpartisan scholarship. We count among our ranks over 100 affiliated scholars located throughout the nation and the world who appear regularly in national and international media, testify on Capitol Hill, and are consulted by U.S. government agencies. Educating the American Public FPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is paramount for the U.S. to conduct a coherent foreign policy. Through in-depth research and extensive public programming, FPRI offers insights to help the public understand our volatile world. Championing Civic Literacy We believe that a robust civic education is a national imperative. FPRI aims to provide teachers with the tools they need in developing civic literacy, and works to enrich young people’s understanding of the institutions and ideas that shape American political life and our role in the world.

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CONTENT 2

Letter from the President

Research 10

Eurasia

Middle East

National Security

Asia

America & the West

Orbis: A Journal of World Affairs

Foreign Influence Election 2020

Operations 30

Events

Education Support

Board

Giving

Financials 2020 Annual Report

Letter from the President Dear Friends, It has become a cliché to speak of 2020 as a difficult and unprecedented year. Cliché or not, it was a year of sorrow and challenges, and like the rest of the world, the Foreign Policy Research Institute had to rethink how to operate with its staff working from home and with live events cancelled for the foreseeable future. There was no road map. In the face of a looming pandemic, on March 10, 2020, we announced that our event scheduled for the next evening would be held virtually, and thus Geopolitics with Ron Granieri became our first event live-streamed via Zoom. There would be no turning back. 2

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Thanks in large measure to the hard work, ingenuity, perseverance, and flexibility of our staff, scholars, Board, and members, I am proud to report that in 2020 FPRI held steadfast to its essential mission: to educate policymakers, policy influencers, and the general public to advance our national interests and promote a better, more peaceful world. In a year riven with divisive and acrimonious debate, we also remained a bastion of civil and informed discourse and, while institutionally nonpartisan, our roster of scholars represented a myriad of viewpoints. In 2020, we also increased our publications increased by 18%, events by 87%, and media engagement by 33%. In short, we discovered the silver lining of virtual operations: the opportunity to expand our reach to new audiences across the United States and around the globe. Some Highlights of 2020: Africa Program. To address growing interest about Africa, FPRI initiated its Africa Program with Trustee Ambassador Charles Ray serving as Chair. The Program’s first-ever event in November 2020—a discussion with experts on the situation in Ethiopia and Tigray—logged more than 20,000 views within only a few days. Stay tuned as we seek to expand this vibrant new Program. Robert D. Kaplan. Bestselling author and Advisory Board Member Robert D. Kaplan expanded his role at FPRI by becoming the inaugural Robert StrauszHupé Chair in Geopolitics. Bob has been featured in events, including discussions with former National

Security Advisor and Trustee H.R. McMaster, renowned geopolitical strategist Parag Khanna, and preeminent scholar, Senior Fellow, and Princeton Professor Stephen Kotkin. With his large following, Bob has also brought new audiences to FPRI through his prolific articles and op-eds that appear regularly in major publications. In 2021, FPRI will debut Bob’s new podcast as well as a seminar series on Great Thinkers in Geopolitics. Robert Strausz-Hupé Project. At the end of 2020, FPRI initiated the new Robert Strausz-Hupé Project: The Atlantic System in a World of Great Power Rivalry, which will examine key questions about the past, present, and future composition and role of the Atlantic System, including its relationship to cultural and social developments in the West and democracy promotion throughout the world. With a new U.S. administration in place, we believe the time is right to take another look at this important issue. Eurasia Program. Our largest research area, the Eurasia Program continued its superb coverage of the Russian Federation and the broader Eurasia region under the leadership of Director Christopher Miller and Deputy Director Maia Otarashvili. In 2020, the Program stepped up its engagement with U.S. officials and policymakers, including preparing a series of reports on the Russian defense industry and arms exports for the U.S. military’s European Command (EUCOM) as well as regular engagement with other governmental entities, including the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. State Department, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). The Eurasia Program’s twice-weekly newletters on Russian politics

and the Bear Market Brief podcast also continued to provide superb analysis and unique insights into the politics and economics of this region to a growing audience. FPRI’s publication of the groundbreaking edited volume, Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned, provided one of the first comprehensive examinations of the impact on Russia of its engagement in the Syria conflict. A collaboration between our Eurasia and Middle East Programs, the six-chapter volume was co-edited by Chris Miller, Robert Hamilton, and Aaron Stein, and was overseen by Maia Otarashvili. Middle East Program. In 2020, the Middle East Program focused on a series of key issues with direct impact on U.S. foreign policy. In addition to the edited volume on Russia’s engagement in Syria, Director Aaron Stein edited a separate volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors & Complicated Politics, which examined how the United States should approach a post-ISIS Iraq and how key actors can better understand Iraqi domestic politics. Aaron’s Middle East Brief podcast continued to deliver expert discussions of critical regional issues to an evergrowing audience. The Program also convened a conference with the Heinrich Böll Foundation on the Eastern Mediterranean with experts and policymakers from the United States, Europe, and Turkey. This event resulted in the publication of six reports on ways to collaborate in the region. National Security Program. The 2020 highlights of the National Security Program included the Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE2020) project, led by

2020 Annual Report

Distinguished Research Fellow Clint Watts, whose team tracked and analyzed Russian, Chinese, and Iranian media efforts to influence public opinion about presidential candidates during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The Program published Senior Fellow Paul Bracken’s fascinating monograph, The Hunt for Mobile Missiles: Nuclear Weapons, AI, and the New Arms Race, which was discussed on the Middle East Brief. Asia Program. Under the leadership of Jacques deLisle, the Asia Program addressed a wide range of issues, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China, Taiwan, and the broader region and implications for the United States. The Asia Program hosted, in collaboration with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a symposium on competitiveness and competition policy in the region and the impact on U.S. policy. Jacques deLisle also served as guest editor for the 2020 Spring Issue of Orbis, which focused on political warfare in Asia and was the subject of a multi-part event series featuring the issue’s authors. Orbis. Our quarterly journal of world affairs entered a new phase with Senior Fellow Nikolas K. Gvosdev taking over the helm as Editor, beginning with the 2020 Fall Special Issue on national security and technology in collaboration with the Georgia Institute of Technology. Nick has brought new energy and topicality to Orbis, while at the same time maintaining its long tradition of providing thought-provoking, indepth debate and analysis.

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Historical Literacy Program. The Historical Literacy Program, initially launched in 2019, continued to develop new curriculum designed to expand students’ capacity for critical and independent thinking through the study and analysis of case studies. In 2020, Education Director Agnieszka “Aya” Marczyk introduced this new curriculum to approximately 300 teachers through professional development workshops. FPRI also adapted this curriculum into virtual learning modules that are included in the School District of Philadelphia’s online curriculum offerings for 11th and 12th grade students. Lecture Series. FPRI hosted two noteworthy annual lectures this past year: Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and Ginsburg-Satell Chair Walter McDougall delivered the annual Ginsburg-Satell Lecture on American Character and Identity, sharing new insights into the role of William Penn and Benjamin Franklin in the founding of Philadelphia. The 2020 Templeton Lecture on Religion and World Affairs featured Ziya Meral, who provided a fascinating analysis of religion, identity, and politics in the 21st century. We are deeply grateful to our generous donors Stan Ginsburg, Ed Satell, and the Templeton Family for making these important lectures possible. On a more somber note, we mourned the loss of several longtime supporters and associates of FPRI in 2020. Trustee emeritus Alan Reed, a board member and avid supporter for many years, will long be remembered as a consummate gentleman and true friend to FPRI. Lionel Savadove was also a longserving trustee before becoming a trustee emeritus a few years ago. Lionel’s enthusiasm for FPRI’s activities and keen interest in international affairs was

much appreciated, and we will greatly miss seeing him at our events. We were also saddened by the passing of Theodore “Dorie” Friend, an intellectual and institutional leader who served as president of Swarthmore College before joining FPRI, where his talents as an exceptional scholar and a meticulous, elegant writer shone brightly. Diane Freedman, wife of our indefatigable chairman, Bob Freedman, also passed; she was a tireless booster of FPRI in her own right and a warm presence at many, many events throughout the years. Finally, we sadly bid farewell to Board of Trustees Vice Chair Samuel Savitz. Sam was deeply committed to FPRI, serving as a trustee for many years and as co-chair of the Nominating Committee, and on the Executive and Finance Committees. His kindness, wisdom, and generosity of spirit will be dearly missed by everyone who had the good fortune to know him. We will miss them all greatly and extend our heartfelt condolences to their families and friends. Finally, I must express my deep gratitude to our Board of Trustees who have given so generously of their time and wisdom to help make FPRI the vibrant organization that it is today, and to our generous supporters whose commitment enables us to do our important work every day. We thank you and hope to see you—in person!—in 2021. With all best wishes, Carol “Rollie” Flynn President, FPRI

2020 Annual Report

2020 in numbers

75 Events

800+ Media Citations

32%

Increase in Twitte Followers

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300k Social Media Fans

66% Increase in Web Traffic

300+

Publications

2020 Annual Report

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RESEARCH

2020 Annual Report

EURASIA PROGRAM In 2020, the Eurasia Program conducted cuttingedge research on the Russian Federation and the Eurasia region more broadly and served in an advisory role to the U.S. military and government. The issues that the Program covered—Russia’s military and defense industry, the Kremlin’s foreign policy, its domestic fragilities, and its relationship with Turkey and China—will continue to be core questions for U.S. decision makers. The following provides an overview of the Program’s accomplishments over the past year and a preview of planned activities in 2021: Providing Analysis for the U.S. Military and Other Decision Makers The Eurasia Program provided analysis to U.S. European Command (EUCOM) on Russia’s defense industry and arms export trends. The Program prepared over a dozen written reports and delivered briefings for EUCOM on topics such as:

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Russia’s new state armament procurement plan

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Russian “private” military contractors in SubSaharan Africa and Libya

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Russia’s effort to avoid U.S. sanctions by "de-dollarizing" its economy

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The effect of COVID on Russian politics and economics

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Program Director Christopher Miller provided multiple briefings to EUCOM personnel on the reports’ findings. This project was at the core of the Program’s advisory activities in 2020, but the Program worked to reach a broader audience by briefing other parts of the U.S. government, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. State Department, and United States Southern Command (SOUTHCOM). Conducting Cutting-Edge Research The Program’s focus in 2020 was the Kremlin’s long-term political and military strategy by publishing two main collections on Eurasia. The first was an edited volume, Russia's War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned, with chapters examining naval operations; ground operations; air operations; and Russia’s “lessons learned” from the conflict. The second major collection was published in the Summer 2020 Issue of Orbis. This special issue, Russia after 20 Years of Vladimir Putin, presented nine original essays examining Russian foreign policy, military affairs, domestic politics, and economics. The Program also expanded its regional expertise by publishing a series of reports on Central Asia, with an emphasis on great power competition, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and energy issues.

RUSSIA’S WAR IN

The Program hosts twice-weekly newsletters on Russian politics and the Bear Market Brief Podcast, which explores politics, economics, and their intersection in Russia, Ukraine, and the post-Soviet space. Chris Miller writes a regular column for Foreign Policy on international politics and economics, with a focus on Eurasia. Miller’s latest book, We Shall Be Masters: Russia’s Pivots to East Asia from Peter the Great to Putin, is set for publication in spring 2021. Program scholars have published in outlets such as the New York Times, War on the Rocks, Foreign Policy, and the National Interest.

RUSSIA & UKRAINE’S ECONOMY AND POLITICS. IN BRIEF.

2020 Annual Report

EURASIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

BLACK SEA STRATEGY PAPERS

CENTRAL ASIA INITIATIVE

RUSSIA AND CHINA’S QUIET RIVALRY IN CENTRAL ASIA NIVA YAU

Geopolitics of the Cancelled Anaklia Project Maximilian Hess & Maia Otarashvili

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2020 Annual Report

EURASIA PROGRAM Plans for 2021 In 2021, we plan to prioritize the following research themes:

Technology and Geopolitics in Russia and Eurasia

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, and Security Issues of the Black Sea Region

Advanced technologies play a growing role in international politics from the debate over Huawei and 5G telecoms equipment to the deployment of artificial intelligence and military technology. This raises critical questions: How will the race to develop and deploy advanced technologies reshape geopolitics in Eurasia? To what extent is Russia likely to succeed in developing or acquiring these new technologies?

The Black Sea Initiative analyzes the region from the perspective of security, domestic politics, economics, and energy. We closely monitor these issues through our Black Sea Strategy Papers, BMB Ukraine, and other publications. Over the past five years, the Program has built a sizable network of scholars and experts in the United States and in the Black Sea region itself. We support their work by sponsoring field research, publishing their findings, and organizing public and private lectures, briefings, and conferences. During 2021, we will focus on the following issues:

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Maritime domain awareness and capacitybuilding efforts in the Black Sea states

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Russia-Turkey relations

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China’s role in the Caucasus

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NATO in the Black Sea

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Over the next year, the Eurasia Program will conduct a series of studies on the Kremlin’s efforts in advanced technologies. Specific questions to be researched will include: •

What is the status of artificial intelligence research in Russia and its application to military spheres?

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Russia has declared that it intends to create a “sovereign internet,” similar to what China has already done. To what extent is this ambition realistic? What would be the effect of such a step?

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How successful has Skolkovo, an initiative dubbed “Russia’s Silicon Valley,” been? To what extent has Skolkovo catalyzed Russian technology firms that serve the Russian military or security services?

Russia-China Collaboration and Competition

Russian Domestic Fragility

U.S. policymakers have in recent years come to realize that the Russia-China entente is likely to persist so long as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are in power. Understanding the scope of this collaboration is crucial for the United States as it tries to stop Russia-China efforts to reshape the international order.

In spring 2020, Vladimir Putin changed Russia’s constitution to “reset” his term limit, setting the stage for him to remain president until 2036. Despite this apparent show of strength, Putin’s domestic situation is marked by growing fragilities, including an aging and stale political elite, deep-set economic stagnation, and accelerating brain drain.

To better understand the scope and limits of RussiaChina relations, the Program plans to examine the following themes:

The Eurasia Program plans to continue its examination of Russia’s domestic fragilities in advance of the coming parliamentary elections in late 2021. Key issues include:

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The status of facial recognition technology in Russia The expansion of Chinese payment platforms into Russia and its effect on U.S. sanctions Russia’s changing relationships with India and Vietnam

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Putin’s falling popularity rating and the collapse in support for all legal political parties

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The future of Russia’s energy sector

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Declining public support for foreign policy adventures in Syria, Venezuela, and, to a lesser extent, Ukraine.

2020 Annual Report

MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM In 2020, the Middle East Program focused on a series of key issues that directly impact American foreign policy. The Middle East Program partnered with the Eurasia Program to publish an edited volume, Russia's War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned. The volume was co-edited by Chris Miller, Robert Hamilton, and Aaron Stein and was overseen by Maia Otarashvili. Program Director Aaron Stein also edited a separate volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors & Complicated Politics, which featured contributions from five authors. The chapters explored the gambit of Iraqi politics. Finally, Aaron Stein wrote a report on how the United States can manage the civil war in Syria and options for the Biden administraiton to consider as it weighs how best to compete globally with Russia and still pursue U.S. counter-terrorism interests in the Middle East. Looking forward, the Middle East Program will continue to focus on U.S. strategy in the region, with an emphasis on the issues that most impact U.S. national security interests.

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The Middle East Brief The Middle East Program's podcast, The MIddle East Brief, produced over 20 episodes in 2020. Guests included Michael Kofman, Inna Rudolf, Craig Whiteside, and Becca Wasser. At the end of the year, the podcast transitioned to a broader national security focus and rebranded as the Chain Reaction podcast.

Competing Actors and Complicated Politics

2020 Annual Report

NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM The National Security Program expanded its focus in 2020. The Program published a series of reports on the role of American special operations forces during an era focused on preparation for combat with a peer-level adversary. One report by Fellow Tim Ball, Still The One: Great Power Competition and Special Operations Forces, explored this topic in depth and provided a series of actionable policy recommendations to exploit U.S. partnerships around the world. Similarly, Board of Advisors Member Frank Hoffman wrote another report, Still the First to Fight? Shaping the 21st Century Marines Corps, about the doctrinal changes the Marines are considering as it plans for contingencies in Asia. Senior Fellow Paul Bracken explored a topic at the intersection of technology and national security in his monograph, The Hunt for Mobile Missiles: Nuclear Weapons, AI, and the New Arms Race. This timely publication explored how new technology could upset strategic stability, specifically through the location of mobile missiles and how a state could use precision-strike assets to target them. Bracken explored this topic with Aaron Stein on a podcast and in a series of events linked to the publication’s release. In partnership with the Heinrich Böll Stiftung, the Foreign Policy Research Institute convened a virtual, two-day conference focused on the Eastern Mediterranean region. This conference included participants from the United States, Turkey, and the European Union, and discussed events in Libya, Syria, and various maritime disputes in the region. The dialogue was the second FPRI-HBS collaboration and focused on bridging divides and exploring areas of convergence between the 18

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three important international actors. Following the dialogue, FPRI published a six-part report series, The East Mediterranean and Regional Security: A Transatlantic Trialogue. Looking forward, the National Security Program will strive to work closely with the Eurasia, Asia, and Middle East Programs to explore the role of Russia and China in the world, how these countries’ actions impinge on U.S. interests, and how best to pursue a policy of great power competition.

THE EAST MEDITERRANEAN AND REGIONAL SECURITY: A TRANSATLANTIC TRIALOGUE

NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM

STILL THE ONE:

GREAT POWER COMPETITION AND SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES

2020 Annual Report

ASIA PROGRAM In 2020, the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute addressed a range of issues in East Asia and U.S. relations with the region. COVID-19 Pandemic The Asia Program examined the successes and failures in responding to the pandemic in China, Taiwan, and elsewhere in East Asia, as well as the implications for U.S.-China relations. Elections and Political Transitions The year 2020 saw much political change in the region. The election of President Joseph Biden points to potential changes in U.S. policy and how other countries approach the United States, particularly the important U.S.-China relationship. East Asia also saw the reelection of President Tsai Ing-wen in Taiwan, the end of the leadership of Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzō, and Beijing’s imposition of a National Security Law in Hong Kong. China and Regional Security A special issue of Orbis analyzed political warfare in the region and beyond (including the U.S.). The Asia Program also addressed aspects of China’s regional relations and growing power.

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Economic Developments In collaboration with the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the Asia Program hosted a symposium on competitiveness and competition policy in the region and related U.S. policy. The Asia Program also examined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Research Spotlight The special Spring 2020 Issue of Orbis assessed political warfare in, and emanating from, East Asia. Authoritarian regimes in Asia, including China and North Korea, use political warfare and sharp power to influence, and sometimes undermine, other polities. Political warfare includes overt and covert use of diplomatic, political, economic, and information means to affect policymaking or the political context affecting decision making in another state. Articles discussed China’s actions with regard to Australia, Hong Kong, Africa, Japan, and Taiwan.

Looking Ahead In 2021, the Asia Program will continue to focus on issues of enduring importance, and address significant issues of the moment. The Biden administration’s policies and policy shifts will be a significant focus in the beginning of the year. The Asia Program is partnering with the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for the Study of Contemporary China won the Future of U.S.-China Relations Project, which brings together more than 20, mostly younger-generation, policy-oriented scholars from universities and think tanks to write policy papers, provide briefings to policymakers, and undertake public outreach.

2020 Annual Report

CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF AMERICA AND THE WEST This year’s focus of the Center for the Study of America and the West was its public programming. The Center has produced Geopolitics with Granieri since January 2013, where scholars discuss topics related to their current work with host Ronald Granieri. Initially a lunch program, it transitioned to a dinner program at the National Liberty Museum in 2017. In early 2020, COVID-19 forced a shift to virtual meetings. In summer 2020, the Center launched People, Politics, and Prose with Ron Granieri, a monthly program focused on recent books. The new program has leveraged the advantages of virtual meetings to attract a variety of guests. These programs display the organization’s commitment to the values of free inquiry and open discussion. All programs are recorded and uploaded to YouTube. The Center plans to continue this series throughout 2021. People, Politics, and Prose with Ron Granieri

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What Girls Need with Marisa Porges

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Losing the Long Game with Philip H. Gordon

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America in the World with Robert B. Zoellick

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Military Strategy: A Global History with Jeremy Black

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Homegrown: ISIS in America with Seamus Hughes

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The Good American with Robert Kaplan

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Research Spotlight In an effort to place the West in a larger regional and historical context, the Center published an article by Senior Fellow Leslie Rogne Schumacher, Malta, Italy, and Mediterranean Migration: A Long History and an Ongoing Issue, in September 2020. The piece highlights the relationship between Europe and its neighbors in the Mediterranean region and the ongoing challenges of migration. Research Priorities for 2021 The Center is pleased to announce The Robert Strausz-Hupé Project: The Atlantic System in a World of Great Power Rivalry, thanks to a generous donation from Ira Straus. The Strausz-Hupé Project hopes to build on the legacy of FPRI’s founder by studying not only the history of the Atlantic System, but it will also address key questions about the composition and role of the Atlantic System in the coming decades. Some topics that will be covered include: the future shape and division of labor within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; the geopolitical role of institutions such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the European Union; cultural and social developments within the West; and the relationship of the Atlantic System to democracy promotion throughout the world.

2020 Annual Report

FOREIGN INFLUENCE ELECTION 2020 Born out of lessons from the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the Foreign Influence Election 2020 (FIE 2020) Project sought to catalogue and analyze news stories published by foreign state-sponsored media outlets in order to assess any interference efforts aimed at the 2020 election. The project analyzed content published from January 1, 2019, to December 10, 2020, from RT and Sputnik News (Russia), PressTV (Iran), and the Global Times (China). Over the course of more than 18 months, FIE 2020 catalogued more than 27,000 articles and analyzed roughly 10,700 articles from these outlets. Russia, through its state-sponsored media outlets Russia Today (RT) and Sputnik News, was the loudest and most prolific publisher of propaganda and disinformation concerning the 2020 election. Throughout the lead-up to November 2020, Russian state media sought to elevate Donald Trump and other populist candidates running in 2020, while denigrating Joseph Biden and other establishment figures. However, Russian narratives about the 2020 election pushed by RT and Sputnik News are perhaps best illustrated by RT Editor-inChief Margarita Simonyan’s November 4, 2020, tweet “Neither free nor fair.” Building on its strategy from 2016, Russian state-backed media sought to sow doubt about the election’s integrity and the validity of the results, spreading conspiracies about the election process from the start of the 2020 primaries through Election Day into the postelection period. In 2020, unlike 2016, much of this content sought to capitalize and amplify statements

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and claims made by U.S. officials about the 2020 election. Separately, all three countries spread disinformation about the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent shift to mail-in voting. On the coronavirus, Russian, Iranian, and Chinese state-sponsored media demonstrated much greater narrative convergence. China sought to rewrite history about the pandemic, publishing numerous pieces that portrayed the origin of the virus not as coming from Wuhan, China, but perhaps from the United States, the U.S. military, or various European countries. Russian, Iranian, and Chinese outlets all promoted content that criticized the United States for its COVID-19 response, spread conspiracies about the origin of COVID-19, and denigrated the West’s vaccines. Russian narratives surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic also converged with those concerning the election: The shift to mail-in voting in response to the pandemic acted as another basis for Kremlin disinformation claiming widespread voter fraud or a “rigged” election. Overall, FIE 2020’s analysis found that while Russia was again the greatest threat to the 2020 election, Chinese disinformation surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine rollout will be the greatest threat in 2021 and beyond. Narrative convergence among these three authoritarian regimes—on COVID-19, American tech companies, election integrity, and more—poses a threat to America’s perceived standing on the world stage and the U.S.

ability to push back against disinformation. Crucially, these countries also seek to promote Americanmade disinformation, a problem that surely will continue into 2021. FIE 2020’s analysis provided insights into which countries sought to target the election and the candidates they sought to promote or denigrate, but as illustrated during the COVID-19 pandemic, FIE 2020’s examination into these outlets’ output also revealed how the greatest threat actors in the information space may shift and target U.S. audiences on new and emerging themes.

2020 Annual Report

ORBIS: A JOURNAL OF WORLD AFFAIRS Over the past year, Orbis has concentrated on two overarching aims. The first is to align the journal more closely to the work, research, and conversations occurring at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. This greater synergy allows Orbis to build upon themes and research that are animating the work at FPRI and its various venues. In turn, articles and essays that are published in Orbis are “in conversation” with events and outreach. The second aim is to keep Orbis' focus as an academic journal that contributes to policy discussions by publishing policy-relevant scholarship and to move beyond the reactive nature of government, thinking proactively about important issues and trends. These two goals shaped the development and publication of three special issues this year. In Spring 2020, Jacques deLisle guest edited, Assessing Political Warfare and Sharp Power in—and from—East Asia. In Summer 2020, Chris Miller and Maia Otarashvilli guest edited, Russia after 20 Years of Vladimir Putin. And in Fall 2020, Lawrence Rubin guest edited Emerging Technology and National Security. This latter issue was produced in partnership with the Georgia Institute of Technology. The Winter 2021 issue focuses on Future Challenges: Confronting a Post-Pandemic World. Looking ahead, we are finishing our Spring 2021 issue, which examines and assesses challenges that the Biden administration will face in the 2020s. In 2020, we also introduced two new initiatives in the journal. The first was the addition of a practitioner interview format, allowing practitioners and policymakers to weigh in on issues. Launched

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in Fall 2020, the first interview featured Admiral James A. Winnefeld and General Philip M. Breedlove discussing how technological change impacts the practitioner. The second innovation was the creation of the Revisiting Orbis series designed to highlight updates and responses to pieces that have appeared in the print volumes of Orbis. Among the 2020 corpus of articles for Orbis, some of the most influential and cited pieces have included: •

Cybersecurity Convergence: Digital Human and National Security (Derek S. Reveron and John E. Savage, Fall 2020)

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The Future of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: A Role for Confidence-Building Measures? (Michael C. Horowitz, Lauren Kahn, and Casey Mahoney, Fall 2020)

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The 5G Question and India’s Conundrum (Harsh V. Pant and Aarshi Tirkey, Fall 2020)

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Arctic Ice Loss Threatens National Security: A Path Forward (Anthony W. Strawa, Gary Latshaw, Stanley Farkas, Philip Russell, and Steven Zornetzer, Fall 2020)

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Fading Russian Influence in the Baltic States (Una Bergmane, Summer 2020)

Summer 2020 • Vol. 64, No. 3

ORBIS

Fpri’s Journal of World Affairs Special Volume: Russia after 20 Years of Vladimir Putin Guest Editors’ Corner Chris Miller & Maia Otarashvili The Domestic Base of the Putin System Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss: Putin ‘Changes’ the Constitution William R. Spiegelberger What Does Putin Promise Russians? Russia’s Authoritarian Social Policy Sarah Wilson Sokhey

Summer 2020

Summer 2020, Vol. 64, No. 3

Gazprom and Russian Natural Gas Policy in the First Two Decades of the 21st Century Anna Mikulska

Russia and Central Asia: Putin’s Most Stable Region? Maximilian Hess The Role of the Military in Russian Politics and Foreign Policy Over the Past 20 Years Anna Borshchevskaya Russia’s Pivot to Asia: Between Rhetoric and Substance Maria Shagina

ORBIS

Russian Foreign Policy in the Putin Era

ORBIS FPRI’s Journal of World Affairs

Special Volume: Russia after 20 Years of Vladimir Putin Guest Editors Chris Miller & Maia Otarashvili

Interference in Russian Foreign Policy, Past and Present

Fading Russian Influence in the Baltic States Una Bergmane Why Isn’t Latvia the ‘Next’ Crimea? Reconsidering Ethnic Integration Indra Ekmanis In Review Are Chinese and American Interests Mutually Exclusive in Eurasia? Paul Heer Book Recommendations and Roundtable on ‘The Death of Arms Control and the Birth of Putinism 3.0’ Robert E. Hamilton & Thomas J. Shattuck

Vol. 64, No. 3

‘The M.P. for Russia’: Olga Novikova, William Gladstone, and the Crisis of 1878 Chris Miller

Foreign Policy Research Institute • Elsevier

2020 Annual Report

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OPERATIONS

2020 Annual Report

EVENTS The Foreign Policy Research Institute remained dedicated to offering thought-provoking public events on the most pressing foreign policy and national security issues facing the United States. FPRI adapted to changing circumstances and embraced the new virtual environment, holding 75 events in 2020. Each reached audiences three-tofour times larger and more geographically diverse than before. Attendance increased 77% in 2020, drawing viewers from locations across the United States and around the world. Our programs on YouTube gained over 524,000 views, an increase of 61.6% from 2019. Our regular event series, such as the Main Line Briefings; People, Politics, and Prose with Ron Granieri; and First State Series in partnership with the University of Delaware, continued virtually. People, Politics, and Prose featured events with Trustee and Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, who discussed his book, Battlegrounds: The Fight to Defend the Free World. Robert Zoellick, Member of the Board of Advisors at FPRI and former President of the World Bank, discussed his book, America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy. Our annual lectures, the Ginsburg-Satell Lecture on American Identity and Character and the Templeton Lecture on Religion and World Affairs, continued virtually. Walter McDougall discussed the key role of Philadelphia in shaping the United States, and Ziya Marel discussed the role of religion in politics and identity. Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics Robert D. Kaplan participated in several events, including Asia’s

Foreign Policy Research Institute

New Geopolitics, The Ecological Value of America’s Soft Power, and Global Issues Facing the Biden Administration. Other highlights include Intelligence Challenges in an Election Year: Briefing Presidential Candidates in partnership with The Council on Intelligence Issues, and a briefing on the Ethiopia-Tigray Conflict. Our special Spring and Summer 2020 issues of Orbis inspired several events, including Political Warfare at China’s Periphery: Taiwan and Hong Kong, China’s Political Warfare Methods in East Asia, Why Isn't Latvia the Next Crimea? Fading Russian Influence in the Baltics, and Russia's Constitutional Change and Putinism 3.0. FPRI also hosted several events highlighting the work of the Foreign Influence Election 2020 Project. All events are recorded and uploaded to our YouTube Channel to watch on-demand.

EDUCATION Teaching Critical Thinking Skills Through Historical Inquiry

Professional Development Workshops for Teachers

The Foreign Policy Research Institute continued its Historical Literacy Program, which launched in 2019. This year’s focus was to develop and introduce new curriculum to teachers through professional development workshops in diverse school settings, primarily in the Philadelphia region. The ultimate goal of the Program is to expand students’ capacity for critical and independent thinking and competent democratic citizenship through:

In 2020, Education Director Agnieszka “Aya” Marczyk conducted more than 15 professional development seminars, reaching approximately 300 teachers in Philadelphia-area public, private, and parochial schools, as well as independent schools in North Carolina. The Program also adapted this curriculum to meet the demand for distance learning during the pandemic. Curriculum materials have been integrated into the School District of Philadelphia’s virtual learning modules for 11th and 12th grade students.

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Critical evaluation of arguments and evidence

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Examination of different viewpoints

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Articulation and investigation of meaningful questions

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Analysis of connections between the past and the present

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Active participation in constructive, openended discussion

The curriculum’s guiding themes are comparative revolutions, collective identities, and human rights. In 2020, the Program introduced two case studies:

Internship Program FPRI continued to offer internships to college, graduate, and high school students. These internships give students opportunities to develop their research and analytical skills, expand their knowledge of international relations, and interact with scholars. In 2020, we engaged 12 interns, who supported research programs, worked on their own projects, and assisted with daily operations. Over the summer, FPRI conducted six intern seminars, led by staff and scholars. FPRI also hosted its first Intern Reunion, where former interns shared their professional experiences and offered career advice to current interns.

• The rise of Nazism in Germany in the 1930s • The fall of communism in 1989-91

2020 Annual Report

Foreign Policy Research Institute

SUPPORT

2020 Annual Report

BOARD BOARD OF TRUSTEES

TRUSTEES EMERITI

Robert L. Freedman, Chair

Hon. John Hillen

John H. Ball

Devon Cross, Vice Chair

James T. Hitch, III

William L. Conrad

Hon. Dov S. Zakheim, Vice Chair

Donald R. Kardon

Charles B. Grace

Marshall W. Pagon, Treasurer

Marina Kats

Jack O. Greenberg

Laura LaRosa

Jeffrey B. Kohler

James H. Averill

Hon. John F. Lehman

David C.M. Lucterhand

J. Michael Barron

Murray S. Levin

I. Wistar Morris, III

Hon. Adrian A. Basora

Alan H. Luxenberg

Robert O'Donnell

Richard L. Berkman

David Marshall

J.G. Rubenstein

Edward T. Bishop

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) H.R. McMaster

Lionel Savadove

Gwen Borowsky

James Meyer

Ruth S. Bramson

Ronald J. Naples

Robert E. Carr

Michael Novakovic

Lawrence Ceisler

Edward W. O'Connor

Ahmed Charai

James M. Papada, III

Winston J. Churchill

Stephen S. Phillips

Gerard Cuddy

John W. Piasecki

Peter Dachowski

Hon. Charles A. Ray

Joseph M. Field

Eileen Rosenau

Robert A. Fox

Adele K. Schaeffer

James Gately

Hillard R. Torgerson

Susan H. Goldberg

Lee Woolley

John R. Haines

Foreign Policy Research Institute

BOARD OF ADVISORS

STAFF

Walter A. McDougall, Chair

Carol Rollie Flynn, President

Paul Bracken

Colly Burgwin, Director of Finance

Michael S. Doran

Eli S. Gilman, Vice President for Operations

Thomas V. Draude Charles J. Dunlap, Jr. David Eisenhower Adam Garfinkle Paul H. Herbert Frank G. Hoffman Robert D. Kaplan John H. Maurer Robert C. McFarlane John A. Nagl

Maia Otarashvili, Deputy Director of Research

Jakub Grygiel, Book Review Editor, Orbis

Robert D. Kaplan, Robert StrauszHupé Chair in Geopolitics Chris Miller, Director, Eurasia Program Jacques deLisle, Director, Asia Program Ronald Granieri, Director, Center for the Study of America and the West

Marisa Porges

Natalia Kopytnik, Creative Director

Kori Schake

Thomas J. Shattuck, Managing Editor

Hon. Robert B. Zoellick

Nikolas K. Gvosdev, Editor, Orbis Ann Hart, Managing Editor, Orbis

Clint Watts, Distinguished Research Fellow

Vladimir Tismaneanu

Tara Spencer, Membership and Administrative Associate

Aaron Stein, Director of Research

Nimrod Novik

Hon. Shirin Tahir-Kheli

Kayla Wendt, Events and Development Coordinator

Leah Pedro, Research Communications Coordinator & Research Assistant

2020 Annual Report

GIVING Chairman's Circle ($25,000+)

Gerard Cuddy

Philip Bilden

Anonymous

James Henry Gately

William L. Conrad

James and Janet Averill

Glenmede Trust Company

Jacqueline Deal

Joseph and Marie Field

Leonard Grossman

Susan and Woody Goldberg

Robert and Penny Fox

Donald and Dorothy Kardon

John R. Haines

Robert Freedman and Diane Freedman

Marina Kats

Reuben Jeffery, III

Laura LaRosa

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) H.R. McMaster

Hon. John F. Lehman

John W. Piasecki

Murray and Lonnie Levin

Bronze ($2,500)

Ronald J. Naples

John H. and Barbara Ball

Edward O'Connor

Constance Benoleil-Rock

Marshall W. Pagon

Buntzie Ellis Churchill

Steve and Mary Ann Phillips

Jo-Ann Cooper

Eileen Rosenau

Norman E. Donoghue, II

Samuel J. Savitz

Carol Rollie Flynn

Adele K. Schaeffer

Robert Gelsher

Gold ($7,500)

Robert and Cynthia Hillas

James T. Hitch

John Hillen

Hon. Dov S. Zakheim

Robert B. Jones

Silver ($5,000)

Camille R. MacDonald-Polski

Hon. Adrian A. Basora

Nicole Maillette

Stanley and Arlene Ginsburg James M. Papada, III Ira Straus Diamond ($15,000) Edward T. Bishop Robert E. Carr I. Wistar Morris, III Edward M. Satell Platinum ($10,000) Ahmed Charai Winston J. Churchill Devon Cross Richard Berkman Gwen Borowsky Ruth and Bob Bramson

Foreign Policy Research Institute

Frank J. Mechura

Konrad Adenauer Stiftung

John J. Medveckis

The Korea Foundation

Judith and Marshall Meyer

Psalm 103 Foundation

Katharine and Louis Padulo

The Arthur N. Rupe Foundation

David Rosenberg

Sarah Scaife Foundation

Jerry and Bernice Rubenstein

Smith Richardson Foundation

Alex and Esther Schwartz

Ira Straus

Nelson and Rochelle Wolf

Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York

Hillard R. Torgerson Special Gifts

The Satell Institute

Anonymous

In Kind Support & Community Partners

Community Response LLC

Creative Print Group

Connelly Foundation

Devon Cross

Democracy Fund

Graffen Business Solutions

Joseph and Marie Field Foundation

John and Debora Haines

Robert and Penny Fox

Haverford School for Boys

Stanley Ginsburg and Edward Satell

James T. Hitch, III

GPD Charitable Trust

Progressive Gifts and Incentives

David C.M. Lucterhand

H.F. Lenfest Fund

Museum of the American Revolution

Heinrich Boll Stiftung

National Liberty Museum

Charles Koch Foundation

Primitive World Productions

2020 Annual Report

FINANCIAL SUMMARY The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) currently operates on a budget of approximately $2.4 million dollars. The charts below show the percentages of how FPRI is supported and how FPRI spends its funds.

Royalties & Other Revenue 7.00%

SUPPORT 2020 Board Giving 25.00%

Memberships & Partnerships 8.00%

Grants & Contributions 60.00%

Support 2020

Board Giving

25%

$616,900

Grants & Contributions

60%

$1,486,000

Memberships & Partnerships

$186,200

Royalties & Other Revenue

$159,500

Total

100%

$2,448,600

Development & Outreach 9.00%

EXPENDITURES 2020 Administration 9.00%

Educational Programs 16.00%

Made with

Publications & Research 66.00%

Foreign Policy Research Institute Made with

Expenditures 2020 %

Publications & Research

66%

$1,633,400

Educational Programs

16%

$398,200

Administration

$222,700

Development & Outreach

$225,600

Total

100%

$2,479,900

2020 Annual Report

FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE