2022 Annual Report

FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

The FPRI Difference

2022 Annual Report The FPRI Difference

Mission

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is dedicated to producing the highest quality scholarship and nonpartisan policy analysis focused on crucial foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States. We educate those who make and influence policy, as well as the public at large, through the lens of history, geography, and culture.

About the Organization

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is a nonpartisan Philadelphia-based think tank dedicated to strengthening US national security and improving American foreign policy.

Established in 1955 by the noted 20th century geopolitical strategist, Ambassador Robert Strausz-Hupé, FPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is essential for the United States to understand complex international issues and formulate foreign policy. FPRI remains committed to this principle and strives to inform both policymakers and the general public through FPRI research and educational programs.

FPRI is a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) non-profit organization and takes no institutional positions on issues and conducts no advocacy. The organization has six main research programs, covering U.S. National Security, the Middle East, Eurasia, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Each program produces reports, articles, public events, and private briefings for policymakers, FPRI members, and the general public.

What We Do

The Foreign Policy Research Institute conducts in-depth research to find new information about U.S. foreign policy challenges and provides insightful analysis that is evidence-driven, policy-relevant, and nonpartisan. We produce research reports, articles, and summary briefs tailored to the needs of different audiences. We host public events and private briefings to make our findings as accessible as possible and to ensure the information we uncover reaches the American people and the policymakers who need it most.

Letter from the President

Dear Friends,

2022 was the year that the Foreign Policy Research Institute turned a corner. After two years of mostly remote activities, FPRI resumed inperson programming and ever greater engagement with our audiences. We also moved to new office space at 123 South Broad Street after some three decades at 1528 Walnut Street. Our new digs include an excellent event space, so we encourage you to come visit us!

With all these changes afoot, FPRI’s standards did not change; we remain steadfast in our commitment to produce the highest quality, nonpartisan scholarship focused on crucial foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States.

The war in Ukraine dominated FPRI’s research agenda in 2022 under the capable leadership of Eurasia Program

Director Chris Miller and Deputy Program Director Maia Otarashvili. FPRI added new senior fellows to its roster to cover the emerging crisis, including Rob Lee and Philip Wasielewski, whose expertise in the region and defense matters enhanced FPRI’s analysis of events. FPRI’s prolific coverage of this issue also significantly boosted FPRI’s social media footprint and website viewership.

Elsewhere, our Asia Program hosted a US-JapanTaiwan Track 2 Dialogue on Deterrence, Defense, and Trilateral Cooperation, which brought together leading experts to discuss the potential implications of a Taiwan conflict. Afterwards, FPRI staff briefed US government officials on the dialogue’s major findings and offered policy recommendations, which highlighted the importance of conflict prevention to avoid significant human and economic costs.

The Africa Program, under the leadership of Chair Ambassador Charles Ray, continued to host events and produce articles covering a variety of topics, including the activities of China and Russia on the continent and the implications for US foreign policy.

The Middle East Program, led by newly hired Director of Research James Ryan, also tracked the impact of the Ukraine war on the Middle East as well as developments in Israel, Turkey, Iran, and elsewhere.

Robert Strauss-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics Robert D. Kaplan continued to write and speak for our dedicated audiences, and Robert Gersony, the subject of Kaplan’s recent book The Good American, was awarded the Benjamin Franklin Award at a ceremony at the Comcast Technology Center.

Carol “Rollie” Flynn President

FPRI President Carol “Rollie” Flynn and Chris Miller at the Comcast Technology Center in Philadelphia, October 2022. (Comcast)

Senior Fellow Nikolas K. Gvosdev also provided stellar leadership as editor of our journal of world affairs, Orbis. This year, Orbis focused on three major themes: Russia, National Security Risks, and Learning for History, and we also celebrated Orbis’s 65th anniversary with a Fall 2022 Special Issue.

In-person event highlights in 2022 included:

• The Ginsburg-Satell Lecture featuring Walter McDougall shedding new light on the War of 1812.

• The newly established Samuel J. Savitz Annual Memorial Lecture on Cultural Diplomacy with former Dean of the Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and noted political scientist Joseph Nye, in conversation with Robert D. Kaplan.

• A new Town Hall series, in collaboration with Comcast, at the sensational new Comcast Technology Center, featuring conversations with Eurasia Program Director Christopher Miller on his book, Chip War, and Trustee David Hunt on spy games and technology.

• A ceremony at the Comcast Technology Center honoring Benjamin Franklin Award recipient, Robert Gersony, the subject of Robert D. Kaplan’s book, The Good American

In the area of education, FPRI partnered with George Washington University (GWU) to sponsor a 10-week online International Crisis Management certificate program for Ukrainian undergraduate students, whose studies had been disrupted by the war. GWU Professor Dan Whitman, a former foreign service officer and a Senior Fellow at FPRI, led the course, which included guest speakers such as former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Sir Lawrence Freedman.

FPRI also provided learning opportunities for all ages. Our internship program continued to provide handson exposure to the fields of international affairs and national security for 40 students, enabling them to experience first-hand the work of our staff and senior fellows. On the other end of the spectrum, Executive Director of the Center for the Study of America and the West Ron Granieri taught a highly successful seminar series for the residents of the Waverly Heights Retirement Community in suburban Philadelphia.

As we look back on 2022, we would be remiss if we failed to thank our Board of Trustees and supporters without whom we could not carry on our important work. We offer our most hearty thanks for your generosity and your compelling interest in the world around us, and we look forward to seeing you in 2023!

Carol “Rollie” Flynn President

A Note from the Board Chair

Dear Friends,

As you will see in these pages, the Foreign Policy Research Institute had one of its most influential and impactful years since its inception in 1955. The success of FPRI is the result of a tireless and capable staff and its scholars who truly understand FPRI’s mission to produce “the highest quality scholarship and nonpartisan policy analysis focused on crucial foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States.”

Our mission is more important than ever as the United States faces a number of critical foreign policy challenges across the globe: the barbarous

Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the amplified strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China. Interest in our work is at an all-time high as readers know that they can count on FPRI to analyze these key challenges in a calm, rational, deliberative, and non-partisan way.

Our work is based on the scholarship of over 100 affiliated scholars. Our mission is to make the fruits of practical scholarship widely available, which we are doing in every possible way.

Robert L. Freedman Chair, Board of Trustees

Sad to say, the dream of universal peace remains only a dream, and so there is plenty of work for FPRI to do.

I encourage you to review the activities of FPRI in 2022 as described in this annual report and to consider adding your support to our non-profit organization. Your generosity allows us to continue to fulfill our muchneeded mission in today’s divisive and trying times.

Sincerely,

Robert L. Freedman Chair, Board of Trustees

Tuning In 37 episodes published

80% increase in podcast downloads

Staying Connected

AFRICA

Launched in 2021, the Africa Program hit its stride in its second year by broadening its focus to address Russian and Chinese influence, gender issues, climate change, and violent extremism. The program has also analyzed the Biden administration’s policies towards the region and has offered a number of policy recommendations to refine its strategy.

Impact and Outreach

The Program continued to collaborate with a partner organization located on the continent: African Centre for the Study of the United States (ACSUS) at the University of Witwatersrand in South Africa. At the program’s inception, FPRI desired to collaborate and amplify voices within Africa to hear directly from those who know the region best. With this partnership solidified, FPRI seeks to expand its partnerships with US-based institutions. In 2022, the program began developing a relationship with Delaware State University’s Global Center for Africa.

As the Program continued to grow in 2022, it selected its fourth Templeton Fellow: Jessica Pickering. Ms. Pickering served as an intern for FPRI in 2021 and throughout 2022 supported the program with her research on the effects of gender equity, climate change, and governance on policy and stability in West Africa.

Despite entering only its second year, the Africa Program briefed a number of key government officials and participated in influential policy dialogues.

In March, Africa Program Chair Ambassador Charles Ray briefed the Biden administration on Africa policy, and he participated in highlevel discussions with African Union officials and senior African diplomats.

In May, Ambassador Ray presented to senior Defense Department officials on security developments in the Sahel. In December, he participated in the second-ever USAfrica Leaders summit, attended by leaders from 49 African countries. The policy reflected a number of the issues raised in the March meeting.

Research Spotlight

The Africa Program’s 2021 Templeton Fellows Carla D. Jones, Mengge Li, and Hermann A. Ndofor conducted a study of the impact of Chinese economic engagement in Africa (FDI and loans from China to African countries) on African countries’ international political alignment as evidenced by voting patterns in the United Nations General Assembly. Their study was completed and published in early 2022.

Explore their findings here:

Workers are seen on site during the construction of the Nairobi Expressway, undertaken by the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) on a public-private partnership (PPP) basis, along Uhuru Highway in Nairobi, Kenya October 20, 2021. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya

In March, Program Chair Ambassador Charles Ray briefed the Biden administration on Africa policy.

Plans for 2023

In 2023, the Africa Program is focusing on:

• State of democracy in Africa, with a focus on West Africa

• African responses to the US-Africa Leaders Summit

• Progress in climate change adaptation

• How violent extremism is impeding economic development

• US military deployments in Africa

• Implementation of the Biden administration’s Africa policy

• The influence of China and Russia in Africa

The program continues to develop its relationships with Historically Black Colleges and Universities to provide think tank experiences and opportunities to undergraduate students and to leverage the universities’ research on relevant topics and issues.

Ambassador Ray will provide the opening lecture sponsored by US Africa Command (AFRICOM) at a George Washington University training for Foreign Area Officers.

Africa Program Advisory Council

Ambassador Charles A. Ray Ambassador Adrian A. Basora Ambassador Aurelia Brazeal

Ambassador Henry Cohen

Ambassador June Carter Perry

Ambassador David Shinn

Ibbo Mandaza

Pete Marocco

Franklin Moore

ASIA

In 2022, the Asia Program continued to guide policy discussions regarding the region’s most pressing issues, particularly related to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Taiwan. The Program’s impact expanded with the launch of the US-Japan-Taiwan Track 2 Dialogue on Deterrence, Defense, and Trilateral Cooperation in Washington, D.C. The dialogue brought together leading experts to discuss the importance of the Miyako Strait in a Taiwan crisis. Following the dialogue, staff briefed US government officials on the dialogue’s major findings and offered policy recommendations.

The report’s key takeaway highlighted the importance of conflict prevention: “A Taiwan conflict carries high-risk of spillover into Japan’s waters and airspace and could escalate to a large-scale great power conflict between the United States and China, with significant human and economic costs, and threats to the survival of the current rules-based order. A Taiwan conflict also risks nuclear escalation.”

In 2022, the Asia Program hired a new full-time Research Associate and plans to onboard new fellows with backgrounds in economics, trade, and finance as the Geoeconomics Initiative grows.

June Teufel Dreyer Senior Fellow

Felix Chang Senior Fellow

A Taiwan conflict carries high-risk of spillover into Japan’s waters and airspace and could escalate to a large-scale great power conflict between the United States and China, with significant human and economic costs.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing–wen meets the U.S. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, US April 5, 2023. REUTERS/David Swanson

ASIA

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead, the Asia Program is expanding research on geoeconomics, US-China economic and technology competition, US-China deterrence and military challenges, China’s internal politics, and China’s overseas influence activity. In 2023, the Asia Program will welcome four new Asia experts to assist with this work: Lonnie Henley, a retired career intelligence officer; Dr. Jessica Teets, a leading expert on China’s internal politics; Dr. Nara Sritharan, an emerging expert on China’s overseas economic activity; and Maj. Ryan Ashley, an emerging expert on Japan-ASEAN relations and US-China strategic competition.

In the coming year, the team is geared up to achieve several major research milestones: First, on geoeconomics, the Asia team is organizing the publication of a special issue of Orbis and a major academic conference in Washington, D.C., that will focus on unpacking the intricate dynamics shaping China’s Belt and Road Initiative and other overseas economic activity. Second, on military challenges, the team will convene a second strategic dialogue in Washington, DC for the US government to build upon last year’s US-Japan-Taiwan dialogue on deterrence and defense readiness with retired military leaders, former government officials, and leading subject-matter experts from the United States, Japan, and Taiwan. Third, the team will publish a series of in-depth research reports covering topics ranging from China’s internal efforts to centralize government control to deterrence challenges in the Taiwan Strait. The Asia Program is embarking on an effort to expand its team and its mission, and the team has exciting plans for the months to come.

Research Spotlight

In a 2022 report, Anton Louthan assessed the political impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, he examined whether and how the People’s Republic of China can pursue a strategy of economic statecraft to further its foreign policy and political interests in Kazakhstan.

Explore his report here:

EURASIA

The Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, sent shockwaves around the globe. Throughout 2022, the Eurasia Program analyzed the war, its origins, and its impact on Eurasia, as well as the rest of the world.

Throughout 2022, our scholars regularly briefed US and European policymakers, carried out field research, and produced analyses for the US Department of Defense.

Highlighting the risk of war in Ukraine before February 24

Before the war began, our scholars played a major role in the debate about the impending conflict.

Senior Fellow Rob Lee published a major report in mid-January outlining Moscow’s compellence strategy. Lee predicted in the report that the Kremlin would launch an attack on Ukraine. Program Director Chris Miller argued in early January that Biden’s threat of economic sanctions against Russia was not enough to deter an attack because the Kremlin didn’t take them seriously.

FPRI engaged with policymakers at a roundtable discussion at the Munich Security Conference that examined the military buildup and the likelihood of an invasion.

Helping the American public and policymakers understand the war

Once Russia attacked, scholars directed their research to help policymakers and the public understand the war and its implications. The morning after the Russian attack, Chris Miller published a piece in the New York Times titled “Why is Putin at War Again? Because He Keeps Winning,” which argued that the US had signaled weakness via its declining military posture in Europe and unwillingness to stand up to Putin in previous crises.

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, FPRI compiled a resource guide featuring a collection of publications, reports, event videos, and podcasts related to Russia, Ukraine, NATO, and protracted regional conflicts.

Rob Lee, Senior Fellow @RALee85

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, sent shock waves around the globe.

A mural depicting 'Woman With A Sword' by Kiev artist Olena Yanko, is seen in Khmelnytskyi city center, in western Ukraine. On Tuesday, December 20, 2022, in Khmelnytskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Ukraine. (Photo by Artur Widak/NurPhoto)

FPRI has long been the leading voice in US debates and analysis of the economic bases of Russian power.

The page is updated regularly and has accrued over tens of thousands of views.

Scholars also produced research examining key debates about the war. Senior Fellow Phil Wasielewski, who served for 31 years in the Directorate of Operations in the Central Intelligence Agency and served concurrently in the Marine Corps, examined Russian and Ukrainian tactics in two reports.

Chris Miller and Maia Otarashvili wrote a report for the Russia Strategic Initiative at the US European Command arguing that despite Russian bluster, Putin’s track record suggested hesitance about escalation. They concluded that threats of tactical nuclear weapons use should be discounted. To expand

its reach beyond written reports, the Eurasia Program produced a series of podcasts with Rob Lee that examined the war and the tactics of the two militaries.

The Eurasia Program also launched a special military edition of the Bear Market Brief newsletter to provide

Chris Miller @crmiller1

regular coverage of the war, featuring Rob’s insights in a weekly digest. The launch of the newsletter gained hundreds of new subscribers to the Bear Market Brief email audience.

A new Chain Reaction special podcast series, The Continent, launched in May to explore how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe’s politics and security. In each episode, host Aaron Schwartzbaum “visits” a country to learn about key dynamics and trends from local experts. The series covered Germany, Poland, Sweden, Finland, the Baltic states, Turkey, Hungary, Italy, France, and the EU as a whole. The Continent will continue for a second season in 2023.

Assessing the implications of sanctions and export controls on Russian power

FPRI has long been a leading voice in US debates and analysis of the economic bases of Russian power. The Eurasia Program produced regular analysis of how Western sanctions and export controls impact Russia’s economy, its political system, and its defense industrial base. Credible analysis of the impact of sanctions and export controls on Russia’s economy is as important as ever, especially since the war has no end in sight.

To broaden the sanctions discussion, Program Director Chris Miller published analysis and held public and private briefings examining the lessons from the Russia sanctions for a potential future crisis

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu drives an Aurus cabriolet during a military parade on Victory Day, which marks the 77th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, Russia May 9, 2022. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

EURASIA

vis-à-vis China. FPRI continues to explore the economic and political impact of sanctions and provide policy recommendations for US leaders.

Partnerships: Educating the future leaders of the world

The Eurasia Program has a longstanding tradition of partnering with US and European universities and think tanks on events, joint research and publications, internship programs, and seminar series.

In April, the Eurasia Program partnered with the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House on workshop titled “The Global Order after Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine.” Senior Fellows Mitchell Orenstein and Anna Mikulska contributed analysis pieces based on the workshop discussions.

The Eurasia Program deepened its partnership with the Atlantic Council of Georgia by holding a number of Black Sea Working Group meetings throughout the year and holding an event in Munich on Black Sea Security during the Munich Security Conference in February 2022.

The organization is particularly proud of its International Crisis Management Course for Ukrainian undergraduate students. An online certificate course launched by FPRI in partnership with the Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian

Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University, the 10-week program provided opportunities for academic engagement to 46 Ukrainian university students whose lives and careers were derailed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Led by Professor Dan Whitman, a former foreign service officer and a Senior Fellow at FPRI, the course hosted experts in foreign policy, public diplomacy, and international relations, including former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Sir Lawrence Freedman.

The students come from a variety of backgrounds. Some of them hold jobs at Ukrainian embassies around the world, Ukrainian non-profit organizations, and even within the Ukrainian government. This project has created a valuable long-term relationship between FPRI and future leaders of Ukraine.

The course is free of charge and issues certificates of participation from FPRI and George Washington University.

Maia Otarashvili @MaiaVanRijn

Research Spotlight

In a 2022 report, Gabriela Iveliz Rosa Hernandez and Olga Oliker examined how Russia’s war on Ukraine is poised to bring into being a new European security order. The authors argue that NATO members and their partners should be thinking in advance about how they could limit Russian capabilities via negotiated arrangements with robust verification measures and repercussions for violations. Once the shooting stops in Ukraine, deals such as these could make a more secure Europe, bolstered by more reliable deterrence, attainable.

Explore their report here:

In this 2022 report, Svetlana Lebedenko discusses recent examples of Sino-Russian biotechnology cooperation projects, offering an early account of the emerging integration of two distinct but complementary innovation infrastructures. The author argues that by decoupling from China and Russia, the United States and its allies are pushing China and Russia closer to each other.

Explore her report here:

EURASIA

Looking Ahead

US strategy to halt Russian expansionism will inevitably focus on Ukraine for the foreseeable future. However, the Eurasia Program will explore Russia’s weak points in other regions.

The Program’s longstanding work on Central Asia provides one area of focus, especially as Kazakhstan’s new government fears Russian territorial aims and as the entire region reassesses the wisdom of economic interconnection with Russia.

Georgia and the entire South Caucasus may present another area for rollback of Russian influence. In preparation of this work, the Eurasia Program has already published articles on these topics as well as the role of China in Central Asia and how Central Asian countries view the Ukraine war.

Building on ongoing research

FPRI’s Eurasia Program is deepening this research in 2023 by publishing a series of reports and articles on these topics. We will also organize discussions about US and Russian strategy and interests in the Central Asia and the Caucasus region.

Lessons from the war

Rob Lee is completing a book, set for publication in 2024, on lessons from the war for understanding Russian military power, based on his aggregation of open-source information about Russian tactics.

Field research in Ukraine

Phillip Wasielewski will build on this work in 2023 by visiting Ukraine and other countries in the region to interview Ukrainian soldiers, defense officials, and other regional military experts to explore how Ukraine has fought.

Future of Turkish foreign policy

Fellow Selim Koru completed a manuscript, set for publication in 2023, on the future of Turkish foreign policy and presented his findings in a number of briefings in the fall.

Black Sea security conference in Tbilisi

In 2023, the Program’s partnership with Ilia State University in Tbilisi will bolster its focus on the Black Sea region. In June 2023, FPRI will co-organize an international conference in Tbilisi, co-hosted by Ilia State University.

People take part in a pro-Ukrainian demonstration, which marks the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in Tbilisi, Georgia, February 24, 2023. REUTERS/Zurab Javakhadze

MIDDLE EAST

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has reverberated across the Middle East. The Middle East Program has provided cuttingedge research and analysis on how the conflict has changed the region. The Ukraine conflict has reinforced the American desire to step back from the Middle East, a trend dating back to the Trump administration. In response to this trend, the Middle East Program will continue to focus on shifting regional dynamics in the coming years.

Iran

The September 2022 murder of Mahsa Amini by Iranian “morality police” shocked the world and sparked mass protests throughout the country. Amini’s murder set up dramatic developments in Iran, around the region, and in the international arena. In order to address the effect of the murder and protests on the region, the Middle East Program amplified the most knowledgeable voices on the issues, including Shirin Saeidi, Lior Sternfeld, and Neda Bolourchi. The Program analyzed the Iran protests from key angles, such as the effect of women’s rights and political movements; Iranians living in Israel; and the effect of Amini’s murder on Iran’s place in the United Nations.

Israel

As the coalition that had ousted Benjamin Netanyahu from power in Israel fell apart and heralded his return at the head of a new

coalition of right-wing parties, Senior Fellow Joshua Krasna cut through the hyper-political and hyper-partisan nature of the issues by arguing that the “underlying currents of Israeli society and politics have reasserted themselves” and that Netanyahu’s “return to power reflects the longtime, conservative, nationalistreligious majority in Israel.” Krasna remains an important and trusted voice on this complex topic.

Turkey

The Middle East Program continued its coverage of Turkey, whose international importance has only grown in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan closes in on his second decade in power and positions himself as a force for peace on the world stage by acting as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, while maintaining

James Ryan @jdryan08

belligerent stances towards Greece and Syrian Kurds, Program Director James Ryan honed in on the connections between Turkey’s 2023 elections and Erdoğan’s full-court press to amplify himself as the responsible leader that Turkey continues to need. He remained aggressive in silencing his opponents, demonstrated by the conviction of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, in December on trumped up charges of defamation.

Looking Ahead

The Middle East Program has a number of key areas of focus for 2023. The Program will continue to keep an eye on Turkey, with presidential elections occurring in the first half of the year. 2023 also marks 20 years since the US invasion of Iraq. The Program will analyze the legacy and effect of the war on the region and the United States in a series of programs and articles.

Finally, The Middle East Program established a Center for the Study of Emerging Energy Politics in the Middle East, headed by Joshua Krasna. The Center will examine many aspects of politics in the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean.

FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 - Group B - Iran v United States - Al Thumama Stadium, Doha, Qatar - November 29, 2022 Iran fans wear shirts displaying Freedom and Mahsa Amini inside the stadium before the match REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

SECURITY

Throughout 2022, the National Security Program has followed important trends and analyzed seismic changes in the geopolitical landscape.

In the past year, and even more so in the coming years, FPRI will assist the public and policymakers in thinking through the challenges posed by a concept of “national security” that is far more encompassing than it has been in the past, with a focus on alliance strengthening, multilateralism, industrial policy, and public health. Orbis Editor Nicholas Gvosdev highlighted the developing definition of national security, “This moves beyond the challenges of reconciling differences within the national security establishment between geographic and functional portfolios to also bring into the conversation a whole host of domestic regulatory questions and priorities.”

As these shifts occur, the Program will analyze the shifting role and nature of counterterrorism. Senior Fellow Colin Clarke has charted the “homeshoring” of counterterrorism efforts in far-right movements across the United States. Clarke and co-author Tim Wilson noted that this homeshoring has an expressly digital character, “It is this far-right ecosystem, sustained by a ubiquitous online presence, that radicalizes supporters and followers and incites individuals toward violence.”

James Ryan, Director @jdryan08

Looking ahead, online radicalization will certainly force the national security establishment to grapple with artificial intelligence, technology, and digital propaganda. Connected to the changing nature technology and its intersection with national security is how the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) addresses the shifting dynamics of what constitutes an “armed attack.”

As Mohamed Amersi notes, “The principal future threat to NATO members probably won’t come from artillery shells or tanks rolling across the border, but rather from cyber, biological, air, and space. And those threats will not only originate from Russia. As the European Union and individual countries in Europe recognize, China poses a threat to Europe.”

Philip Wasielewski Senior Fellow

Looking Ahead

In the coming year, the National Security Program will build on its strengths and plow new ground as the field of national security goes through significant shifts. New National Security Program Director Nicholas Gvosdev will lead this effort. The Program will rise to meet these challenges by providing top-level analysis on the changing landscape in the field of high technology, artificial intelligence, and climate change, and of how technology and security will force a re-think of international security architecture.

The Program is also establishing a Center for the Study of Intelligence and Nontraditional Warfare under the leadership of Senior Fellow Phil Wasielewski. This new initiative will examine the changing nature of nontraditional warfare through a contemporary and historical lens. Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine and rising challenges with China, the United States and its allies face a moment that demands attention to the problem of intelligence gathering and management, in particular with respect to nontraditional warfare.

US Navy sailors assigned to Explosive Ordnance Disposal Group 2 recover the Chinese spy balloon - a high-altitude surveillance balloon - off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Feb. 5, 2023, one day after the high-altitude surveillance balloon was shot down by U.S fighter aircraft. (US Navy)

AMERICA & THE WEST

The Center for the Study of America and the West continued to lead the organization’s public outreach and educational programs. Such efforts separate the Foreign Policy Research Institute from other foreign policy think tanks, and help to build connections to the wider community.

People, Politics, and Prose, a monthly interview program hosted by Executive Director Ronald J. Granieri, marked its tenth anniversary in January 2023. The program seeks out authors with wide appeal and engages them in detailed and open conversation. The program will continue to connect the FPRI community to the world’s foremost thinkers. In addition to People Politics and Prose, the Center hosts a lecture series at Waverly Heights Community for Seniors.

The Center’s work does not stop at public programming. It regularly engages with the next generation of foreign policy thinkers by teaching high school students about the importance of geopolitics. Taught by Executive Director Ronald J. Granieri, the course has attracted participants from four continents.

As the Center sets its eyes on 2023, it plans to restart its historical simulation program for middle and high school students.

A Note from Robert D. Kaplan

Dear Readers,

I send you well wishes during these difficult and trying geopolitical times. The past year has challenged the foundations of the international system. At FPRI, I hold the Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics. I take that title very seriously. I have tried to uphold the legacy of Ambassador Strausz-Hupé in all of my work.

Through my role at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, I continued to write books and essays on some of most important geopolitical topics. In April 2022, I published Adriatic: A Concert of Civilizations at the End of the Modern Age, which provides a history of the Adriatic Sea as a divider of East and West.

In January 2023, I published The Tragic Mind: Fear, Fate, and the Burden of Power, which analyzes how modern and ancient texts inform world leaders. As this year continues on, I will publish another book, The Loom of Time: Between Empire and Anarchy between the Mediterranean and China, a lifetime account of documenting the Middle East. These works would not have been possible without your generous support of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Beyond my writings, I traveled to a number of places in Europe giving speeches and lectures on the various geopolitical hotspots, such as the war in Ukraine and China. I address many of these topics, in

conversation with leading world experts, in my highly regarded podcast series, Global Demons.

In parting, I would like to welcome you all to participate in a seminar in Philadelphia on Great Thinkers in Realism and Geopolitics later this year.

With Best Wishes,

Robert D. Kaplan Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics

Robert D. Kaplan

Robert Strausz Hupé Chair in Geopolitics

In 2022, Orbis marked its 65th anniversary.

The journal occupies a unique niche in the foreign policy conversation. As the second oldest foreign policy journal in America, Orbis has long offered historical context and analysis on the world’s great geopolitical disruptions and their aftershocks— whether the Cuban Missile Crisis, the war in Vietnam, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Iraq War, the Afghanistan withdrawal, or many more episodes upending the world order.

ORBIS

It remains, as its founder Robert Strausz-Hupé envisioned, a forum for policymakers, scholars, and the informed public who seek a deeper understanding of our world.

Editorial Staff

Editor

Editor

Nikolas K. Gvosdev Editor Ann Henderson Hart Managing

Jakub Grygiel Book Review

Natalia Kopytnik Design Editor

The journal provided space for leading thinkers to fully expand upon the major disruptive changes in the international system, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the longterm ramifications of COVID-19 on national security. For 65 years, readers have looked to Orbis for in-depth and historical context in their consideration of global affairs.

In each issue, Orbis continued to play to its strengths by connecting the past to the present

and by engaging with writers who served in key positions of government. Particular highlights include Former Undersecretary of Defense Dov Zakheim on the implications of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan; the legacy of Robert Strausz-Hupé on US foreign policy; and reflections from former Orbis editors, Walter A. McDougall, David Eisenhower, James Kurth, and Mackubin Owens.

In 2022, Orbis focused on three major themes and celebrated its 65th anniversary:

Winter 2022: Russia’s Long Shadow and the Future of Europe

Spring 2022: A Myriad of National Security Risks

Summer 2022: Learning from History

Fall 2022: A Special Issue

Celebrating the 65th Anniversary of Orbis

2022 Books

Miller Director, Eurasia Program

In Chip War, Chris Miller explains how the semiconductor came to play a critical role in modern life and how the US become dominant in chip design and manufacturing and applied this technology to military systems. (Scribner, 2022)

Adriatic is an insightful travelogue in which the author turns his perceptive eye to a region that for centuries has been a meeting point of cultures, trade, and ideas. He undertakes a journey around the Adriatic Sea, through Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, and Greece, to reveal that far more is happening in the region than most news stories let on. (Penguin Random House, 2022)

Robert D. Kaplan

Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics

Chris

The US War Against ISIS records how the United States and its allies chose to fight the group, what the consequences have been for transatlantic relations, and how these factors may shape future wars the West decides to pursue. (Bloomsbury, 2022)

The Road to Pearl Harbor offers a timely examination of the conflict in the Pacific prior to the attacks on Pearl Harbor and offers lessons applicable to understanding contemporary great power flash points between Asia and the West. (Naval Institute Press, 2022)

John Maurer Senior Fellow

Aaron Stein Senior Fellow

Internship Program

The Foreign Policy Research Institute offers internships for students during the summer, fall, and spring terms. With over 300 applicants for just 40 positions, the FPRI internship has become a sought after program for future foreign policy professionals.

Interns receive mentorship from leaders in the foreign policy community, and some even have the opportunity to publish their projects.

Summer Interns participate in a weekly seminar series, where scholars and staff facilitate in-depth discussion on current issues.

Many of our interns and research assistants have gone onto remarkable careers, including:

◊ John F. Lehman - Former Secretary of the Navy

◊ John McLaughlin - Former Deputy Director of the CIA

◊ John H. Maurer, Ph.D. - Alfred Thayer Mahan Professor of Sea Power and Grand Strategy at the Naval War College

◊ Jessica Pickering - Risk Intelligence Analyst for Africa /Americas at Emergent Risk International

◊ Tatianna Cunningham - Individual Giving Manager, City Year Moving

Forward

FPRI currently partners with several universities including the University of Pennsylvania to offer internships.

We look forward to establishing and maintaining additional partnerships with institutions that will allow us to attract and nurture students interested in the field.

“Last year, two of our interns supported an important US government-sponsored US-Japan-Taiwan strategic dialogue that FPRI hosted in Washington, D.C. Their assistance was invaluable and we were fortunate to have them on the team.”

Ryan Neuhard, Deputy Director, Asia Program

2022 EVENTS

FPRI’s in-person event highlights in 2022 included:

• The Ginsburg-Satell Lecture featuring Walter McDougall shedding new light on the War of 1812.

• The newly established Samuel J. Savitz Annual Memorial Lecture on Cultural Diplomacy with the former dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government and noted political scientist Joseph Nye speaking with Robert D. Kaplan.

• A new Town Hall series, in collaboration with Comcast, at the sensational new Comcast Technology Center, featuring conversations with FPRI’s Eurasia Program Director Christopher Miller on his book, Chip War, and FPRI Trustee David Hunt on spy games and technology.

• A ceremony at the Comcast Technology Center honoring FPRI’s Benjamin Franklin Award recipient, Robert Gersony, the subject of Robert D. Kaplan’s book The Good American

Good Americans Abroad

The 16th Annual Benjamin Franklin Award Celebration

On December 6th, FPRI showcased good Americans doing good abroad. FPRI and eight partner organizations illustrated how they promote American values and ideals across the globe through their work in medicine, art, education, and more.

The evening’s program showed how FPRI stands out among its peers in educating US policymakers and the American public about critical national security and international relations issues facing the United States today.

About the Benjamin Franklin Award Winner:

Robert Gersony, the 16th recipient of the Benjamin Franklin Award, exemplifies a good American doing good abroad. Over the span of three decades, Gersony conducted on-the-ground research for the US government in virtually every war and natural-disaster zone in the world.

He has and continues to have a profound effect on US international policy, traversing the globe for over 30 years, traveling to remote war and disaster zones, and bringing back critical information and insights to senior policymakers to enable a smarter and more humane American foreign policy.

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Our Team

Carol “Rollie” Flynn President

Colly Burgwin Director of Finance

Gina Ceisler Shapiro Director of Development

Natalia Kopytnik Director of Communications

Kayla Wendt Events and Development Associate

Leah Pedro Assistant Director of Communications

Spencer Jones Executive Assistant to the President

Tara Spencer Membership and Administration Manager

Shane Mason Executive Editor

James Ryan Director of Research

Michael Beckley Director, Asia Program

Ryan Neuhard Deputy Director, Asia Program

Thai Binh-Elston Research Associate, Asia Program

Charles A. Ray Chair, Africa Program

Jacques deLisle Chair, Asia Program

Janice Salerno Director of Finance

Maia Otarashvili Director, Eurasia Program

Robert E. Hamilton Head of Research, Eurasia

Nikolas K. Gvosdev Director, National Security Program Editor, Orbis

Ann Henderson Hart Managing Editor, Orbis

Philip Wasielewski Director Center for the Study of Intelligence and Nontraditional Warfare

Center for Emerging Energy Politics in the Middle East

Robert D. Kaplan Robert Strausz Hupé Chair in Geopolitics

Ronald Granieri Executive Director, Center for the Study of America and the West

Jakub Grygiel Book Review Editor, Orbis

Financial Summary

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) currently operates on a budget of approximately $2.7 million dollars. The charts below show the percentages of how FPRI is supported and how FPRI spends its funds.

2022 REVENUE*

2022 EXPENSES*

*Based on unaudited financials

FPRI staff at the 16th Annual Benjamin Franklin Award Celebration, December 2022.

The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is a nonpartisan Philadelphia-based think tank dedicated to strengthening US national security and improving American foreign policy. Established in 1955 by the noted 20th century geopolitical strategist, Ambassador Robert Strausz-Hupé, FPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is essential for the US to understand complex international issues and formulate foreign policy. FPRI remains committed to this principle and strives to inform both policymakers and the general public through FPRI research and educational programs.

FPRI is a nonpartisan 501(c)(3) non-profit organization and takes no institutional positions on issues and conducts no advocacy. The organization has six main research programs, covering US National Security, the Middle East, Eurasia, Europe, Asia, and Africa. Each program produces reports, articles, public events, and private briefings for policymakers, FPRI members, and the general public.

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