Luxury Market Report FIRST HALF 202 1
Luxury Market Introduction FIRST HALF 2021
Luxury is an Experience We are pleased to share our First Half 2020 Luxury Market Report covering both New Hampshire and Vermont. In this report you will find real estate trends for the Luxury Market which we define 2 ways; homes sold for $600K+ as well as homes sold over $1MM. Four Seasons Sotheby’s International Realty is the leader in the Luxury Market with 40% more properties sold at the $600K+ level and 55% more properties sold at the $1MM+ level than our next closest competitor in the two states combined. These results are a direct consequence of the reach and power of our brand together with our ongoing commitment by our associates and staff to provide the highest level of service and expertise to both Buyers and Sellers alike. It would be our privilege to service all of your real estate needs in this beautiful and scenic place we call home. Alan DiStasio - Chief Executive Officer Laurie Mecier-Brochu - President *Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 All VT & NH Counties Combined
Table of Contents Market Overview PAGE 4
$600K + VT & NH PAGE 6
$1MM + VT & NH PAGE 8
$600K + VT PAGE 10
$1MM + VT PAGE 12
$600K + NH PAGE 14
$1MM + NH PAGE 16
Market Overview FIRST HALF 2021
2020 2nd Half Recap As we reported a year ago in July, the Luxury Market was dramatically impacted by the pandemic during the first half of 2020. Throughout New Hampshire and Vermont, luxury sales were tepid through June. Sales over $1MM+ were up 10.5% over the same period in 2019, and Dollar Volume was up by 9.9%. However, most of the increase came in May and June once the pandemic-induced buying frenzy heated up. The second half of the year was quite different. Total homes sold over $1MM+ were up 136.4%, and Dollar Volume was up 140.7% as the rate of sales increased exponentially. At the end of 2020, inventory shrank -18.7% vs. 2019, exacerbating what was already a tight listings market. The story for homes priced over $650,000 was similar. The second half of the year resulted in Unit Sales up 114% and Dollar Volume 122.5% across the two states combined. Interestingly enough, the Average Sale Price for homes over $1MM+ in the second half of 2021 increased only slightly (1.8%), despite the fevered sales pace. Home sales over $650,000 showed a similar trend with a slight increase of 4% year-over-year. We mention this because the Average Sale Price for all homes, when taken in total, was up nearly 23% year-over-year...the result of many buyers pursuing too few homes for sale in lower price categories. Clearly, there was less competition in the market’s luxury segment, which kept prices relatively stable despite the increased sell-through rates in both states.
Now to 2021 At the end of 2020, we tried to determine how 2021 might play out. The prevailing wisdom was that we would see a slight decrease in the rate of sales, believing that the sell-through rate could not possibly sustain itself. We were wrong.
New Hampshire Through June, New Hampshire’s luxury market continued its torrid pace. Unit Sales statewide for homes priced over $1MM+ were up 104.8% year over year through June, and Dollar Volume increased 99.2% during the same time frame. All homes priced over $650,000 showed a 106.5% gain through June, and Dollar Volume also rose 108.7%.
Vermont It’s fair to say that it has been years since Vermont has seen this much activity in the market’s luxury segment. Through June, Vermont’s high-end market continued to build on 2020 with Unit Sales statewide for homes priced over $1MM+ up 150.3% year over year through June, and Dollar Volume up 139.9%. All homes priced over $650,000 showed a 175.9% gain through June, and Dollar Volume also rose 162.3%. All numbers which are practically unheard of.
Many of these sales were transacted in our Lake and Ski resort markets in both states. Millennials, in particular, continue to place a value on second-home ownership. Not just for the sake of a safe place in which to shelter, but because they have come to understand that a ski or lake home lifestyle can provide their family with experiences unlike any other. Additionally, not every worker must go back to the office; hybrid work-from-home models are becoming de rigueur. Some Buyers are willing to trade a longer commute 2 or 3-days a week in favor of living where they plan to recreate. Interest rates continue to remain at historically low levels as well.
The Future We are starting to see a significant level of buyer fatigue. Many buyers have given up and stopped making offers or looking altogether. Others were priced out of the market as selling prices rose. Many buyers are becoming warier of asking prices. Unfortunately, we have started to notice a trend whereby sellers attempt to test the market by asking unrealistically high asking prices. One, in fact, literally doubled their asking price after having been provided a comparative market analysis that already included a covid “bump.” In nearly all cases, sellers who maintain realistic asking prices, particularly in the resort markets, still experience significant buyer activity, those that don’t are sitting on the market. And the number of homes for sale, while growing, still lags demand. Currently, Months of Inventory for all homes over $650,000 is 3.6, a seller’s market. 5-8 months would indicate a balanced market, over 8 months a buyer’s market. And then there is the specter of the Delta Variant rearing its ugly head. If any, it remains to be seen what impact this new variant will have in the second half of the year. Could there be a second run on homes in our markets? It, of course, remains to be seen. As a result, we expect sell-through rates will continue to moderate throughout the balance of the year. Still, we certainly do not expect any significant correction in the foreseeable future. Sincerely,
Alan J. DiStasio Chief Executive Officer
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 - All VT & NH Counties Combined
Luxury Report: $600K+ VT & NH COMBINED
FIRST HALF 2020
FIRST HALF 2021
% CHANGE
743
1736
134%
$930,646
$942,846
1%
115
59
49%
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKE T
Source: NNEREN 1/1/20 - 6/30/20 and 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT & NH Counties Combined
Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
FOR SALE SOLD
1200
PENDED
1093
1000
941 844
800
763
732
724
600 520
491 421
400
410
286
278
200
0
194
1/21
185
2/21
285
3/21
368
4/21
444
5/21
Source: Trendgraphix utilizing NNEREN data 1/1/2021 - 6/30/2021 — All VT & NH Counties Combined
550
6/21
Luxury Report: $600K VT & NH COMBINED
Total Sales in $
Total Sales in Units
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
146M
146
309
149 170
FSSIR
141M
219
COMPETITOR 1
341M
124M
COMPETITOR 2
COMPETITOR 3
183M
COMPETITOR 4
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT & NH Counties Combined
Luxury Report: $1MM+ VT & NH COMBINED
FIRST HALF 2020
FIRST HALF 2021
% CHANGE
169
389
130%
$1,612,023
$1,670,648
4%
138
83
40%
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKE T
Source: NNEREN 1/1/20 - 6/30/20 and 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT & NH Counties Combined
Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
FOR SALE SOLD
400
402
PENDED 361
350
338
327
325
299
300
250
200
150
109
100
90
79 60
50
0
131
120
43
1/21
40
2/21
62
3/21
87
4/21
102
5/21
Source: Trendgraphix utilizing NNEREN data 1/1/2021 - 6/30/2021 — All VT & NH Counties Combined
125
6/21
Luxury Report: $1MM+ VT & NH COMBINED
Total Sales in $
Total Sales in Units
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
28 32
47M 56M
113
191M
72M
42
84M
44
FSSIR
COMPETITOR 1
COMPETITOR 2
COMPETITOR 3
COMPETITOR 4
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT & NH Counties Combined
Luxury Report: $600K+ VERMONT
FIRST HALF 2020
FIRST HALF 2021
% CHANGE
162
514
217%
$942,701
$990,960
5%
205
97
53%
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKE T
Source: NNEREN 1/1/20 - 6/30/20 and 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT Counties Combined
Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
FOR SALE SOLD
500
PENDED 457
450 419
400
401
393
387 360
350 300 250 200 150 133
127
100
98
129
117
97
50 0
49
1/21
52
2/21
89
3/21
126
4/21
121
5/21
Source: Trendgraphix utilizing NNEREN data 1/1/2021 - 6/30/2021 — All VT Counties Combined
155
6/21
Luxury Report: $600K+ VERMONT
Total Sales in $
Total Sales in Units
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
40
60M
42
189
61
53M
199M
49M 122
FSSIR
112M
COMPETITOR 1
COMPETITOR 2
COMPETITOR 3
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT Counties Combined
COMPETITOR 4
Luxury Report: $1MM+ VERMONT
FIRST HALF 2020
FIRST HALF 2021
% CHANGE
40
138
245%
$1,572,117
$1,673,573
286
115
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKE T
7% 60%
Source: NNEREN 1/1/20 - 6/30/20 and 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT Counties Combined
Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
FOR SALE SOLD
225
PENDED
200
175
194 185
179
176
176 158
150
125
100
75
50 42
25
0
31
26
23 18
1/21
38 22
16
2/21
22
3/21
31
4/21
29
5/21
Source: Trendgraphix utilizing NNEREN data 1/1/2021 - 6/30/2021 — All VT Counties Combined
42
6/21
Luxury Report: $1MM+ VERMONT
Total Sales in $
Total Sales in Units
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
19
35M
60
20 21
36M
25
FSSIR
COMPETITOR 1
100M
44M
COMPETITOR 2
COMPETITOR 3
39M
COMPETITOR 4
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All VT Counties Combined
Luxury Report: $600K+ NEW HAMPSHIRE
FIRST HALF 2020
FIRST HALF 2021
% CHANGE
581
1222
110%
$927,284
$922,608
.5%
90
44
51%
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKE T
Source: NNEREN 1/1/20 - 6/30/20 and 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All NH Counties Combined
Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
FOR SALE SOLD
650
PENDED
601
600 550 498
500 450
430
400 350
373
342
334
345
319
300 276
275
250 200 180
172
150 100 50 0
136
1/21
124
2/21
187
3/21
227
4/21
304
5/21
Source: Trendgraphix utilizing NNEREN data 1/1/2021 - 6/30/2021 — All NH Counties Combined
372
6/21
Luxury Report: $600K+ NEW HAMPSHIRE
Total Sales in $
Total Sales in Units
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
129
145M
216
133
181M
124M 144
FSSIR
155M
157
COMPETITOR 1
123M
COMPETITOR 2
COMPETITOR 3
COMPETITOR 4
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All NH Counties Combined
Luxury Report: $1MM+ NEW HAMPSHIRE
FIRST HALF 2020
FIRST HALF 2021
% CHANGE
129
251
95%
$1,624,397
$1,669,039
3%
93
65
30%
NUMBER OF PROPERTIES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKE T
Source: NNEREN 1/1/20 - 6/30/20 and 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All NH Counties Combined
Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
FOR SALE SOLD
200
PENDED
191
180 163
160 147
140
136
133
129
120 100 93
80
76
60
61
59 50
40 34
20 0
21
1/21
22
2/21
37
3/21
49
4/21
66
5/21
Source: Trendgraphix utilizing NNEREN data 1/1/2021 - 6/30/2021 — All NH Counties Combined
74
6/21
Luxury Report: $1MM+ NEW HAMPSHIRE
Total Sales in $
Total Sales in Units
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
(JAN. 2021 - JUN. 2021)
27 28 39
FSSIR
48M
53
49M
44
COMPETITOR 1
91M
COMPETITOR 2
68M
84M
COMPETITOR 3
COMPETITOR 4
*Source: Trendgraphix Data - 1/1/21 - 6/30/21 — All NH Counties Combined
SOUTHERN VERMONT
NORTHEAST KINGDOM
UPPER VALLEY
Mount Snow: 802.464.1200 Stratton: 802.297.1100 Manchester: 802.362.4551 Okemo: 802.228.4537
St. Johnsbury: 802.751.7582
Fairlee: 802.333.4701 Hanover: 603.643.6070
CENTRAL VERMONT Killington: 802.746.4203 Rutland: 802.864.0541 Stowe: 802.253.7267
LAKE SUNAPEE REGION New London: 603.526.4050
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SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE Bedford: 603.413.7600
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