&
VERMONT NEW HAMPSHIRE
2016 MID YEAR MARKET REPORT
FOUR SEASONS SOTHEBY’S INTERNATIONAL REALTY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4 6
Market Review
26
Central Vermont Rutland County Washington County Lamoille County
Southern New Hampshire Hillsborough County Rockingham County
30
10
Champlain Valley Chittenden County Addison County
Southern Vermont Bennington County Windham County Windsor County Rutland County
34
Upper Valley Grafton County Orange County Windsor County Sullivan County Luxury Market $600K+ $1 Million+
14
Lake Sunapee Region Merrimack County Sullivan County
18
Lake Winnipesaukee Region Belknap County Carroll County
22
Northeast Kingdom Caledonia County Orleans County
38
MLS#4428414 KATHY O’BRIEN
MLS#4437226 DAVID HALLIGAN
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER We are proud to share with you our Vermont and New Hampshire 2016 Mid Year Market Report. Our focus is to ensure that our clients (whether selling or purchasing real estate) have comprehensive information in order to make informed decisions. Ultimately, your success is ours.
I
n this report, you will find year over year market trends comparing this year to date with the same time period last year in order to help you identify where the market is headed. Please don’t hesitate to contact one of our associates for more detailed information on the town (or towns) you intend to sell or purchase in this year. We hope you find this, our Mid Year Market Report of 2016, helpful as you evaluate your real estate options. At Four Seasons Sotheby’s International Realty, we are committed to providing the highest level of service and expertise to buyers and sellers alike in all price categories. It will be our privilege to serve you.
MLS#4503751 KATHY O’BRIEN
Staige Davis, CEO
MARKET REVIEW
N
ationally, the residential real estate market experienced a strong first half in 2016, with home sales high and home prices continuing to rise.
There are a number of key trends that will continue to drive the housing market for the remainder of 2016: Growing rental rates and moderate home price growth should mean more people looking to buy in 2016. Mortgage rates will rise, which should also help boost the number of buyers. Inventory is expected to remain very tight. Demand for for-sale housing will grow and will continue to be dominated by older millennials, aged 25 to 34. This demographic has the potential to claim a third of home sales in 2016 and represent 2 million home purchases. Two other demographics will also be dominant forces on the buy side but will also be a key part of providing the necessary inventory on the sell side. Gen-X is in prime earning years and thus is also experiencing improvements in their economic circumstances, which include more relocations and seeking better neighborhoods for their families. Older boomers are approaching — or already in — retirement and seeking to downsize or lock in a lower cost of living. Together, these two generations will provide much of the suburban inventory that millennials desire to start their own families.
4 FourSeasonsSIR.com
MLS#4484665 STEVE PATRIQUIN
NEW HAMPSHIRE
VERMONT
New Hampshire posted strong numbers through the first half of 2016 and the second half could be poised for even stronger growth. Single family homes were up 17.75% percent in 2016 year to date, while condo sales rose by 17.07%. The median sales price for single-family homes also rose 1.45% over the previous year to $280,258.29. Additionally, the state’s economy is poised for continued growth in 2016, driven largely by the housing market and lower energy prices, according to the state’s leading economists.
Sales were up 9.96% in the first half of 2016. However, pricing remained relatively flat and remains a concern with most experts projecting flat to modest increases again in 2016. Pricing your property appropriately given the market dynamics is more important than ever to get it sold in a timely manner. Vermont’s underlying demographics, with no population growth in the prime home buying age groups, suggest that Vermont’s housing market will remain with flat to modest growth. There certainly won’t be any increase in sales or prices due to people moving to Vermont in the short term.
Supply will also improve as a result of additional growth in new construction, and particularly in more single-family construction. The growth will be in more affordable price points, which will help bring down the average new home prices and the average size of new homes, which have grown dramatically so far in the recovery as builders principally focused on the move-up, luxury, and active adult segments. Mortgage rates should also begin their longanticipated ascent as the Federal Reserve attempts to “thread the needle” on influencing rates up without negatively impacting economic growth. The increases in mortgage rates will likely be lower than the increases in short-term interest rates created by Fed policy, as global weakness and a strong dollar limit more pronounced movement in long bonds. Mortgage rates will also be volatile, moving up and down by day and week, but the key difference will be a more pronounced longer trend towards higher rates. The increase in mortgage rates should be a net positive to the market as fence-sitting sellers and buyers begin to understand that rates are moving higher and decide to jump into the market while they remain at such historically low levels.
MLS#4493566 CHERYL KERR
The final key trend is that rents will rise more rapidly than prices, adding to the already burdensome level of rents that exist in more than 85 percent of the markets in the country. In the short term, this reinforces the consumer’s decision to buy, but higher rents also start to negatively impact the pipeline for future purchases by keeping renting households from saving towards a down payment.
THE LUXURY MARKETS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT The luxury market picked up slightly in Q2 as the weather got warmer and waterfront activities commenced. The luxury market continues to be primarily a buyer’s market due to a relatively large supply of inventory, resulting in many homes staying on the market for a prolonged period of time before finding a buyer. Pricing appropriately given the market dynamics is critical, and many sellers have had to lower their price expectations as buyers look to negotiate the best price possible. Four Seasons Sotheby’s International Realty continues to be the number one ranked firm in in the luxury market, with the most total sales in units and dollar volume combined within Vermont and New Hampshire in mid year 2016 for the $600K+ and $1M+ price points.
*Source: NH and VT Association of Realtors **Source: NEREN 1/1/16 - 6/30/16
MLS#4447115 LORI SHIPULSKI
FourSeasonsSIR.com 5
MICRO CENTRAL VERMONT REPORT Number of Sales
77 68
80
68
100
96
120
0
6 FourSeasonsSIR.com
29
37 15
10 6
15 10
13 8
14 16
28
30 19 20
20
8 6
YTD 2 015
40
25 27
YTD 2 016
39
60
Average Days on Market
99
154
210 237
210 226
221 237
229 166
210
224
111
100
85
YTD 2 015
57
150
117
YTD 2 016
132
200
158
250
195
300
264 251
350
252
325
360
400
50 0
FourSeasonsSIR.com 7
MICRO CENTRAL VERMONT REPORT Average Sale Price 600,000.00 500,000.00 400,000.00 300,000.00 YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015
200,000.00 100,000.00 0.00
8 FourSeasonsSIR.com
MLS#4251225 SUSAN W. BARRON
Average sales prices are on the rise.
+
Homes are selling closer to their list price. Homes are taking longer to sell, but on average are selling for higher.
MLS#4423599 LAURIE MECIER-BROCHU
$499,740.26 Stowe Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016
+41.17% Rutland City Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016
FourSeasonsSIR.com 9
10 FourSeasonsSIR.com
Colches ter
Charlotte
Winoos ki
Willis ton
Shelburne
Richmond
Hinesburg
Vergennes
New Haven
Shoreham
Bridport
Waltham
Addison
Middlebury
Ferris burgh
YTD 2 015 Es s ex
YTD 2 016
25 12 27 34
37
20 22 26 20
5 1 5 1 7 1 3 3 12 9 11 14
2 2
55
55
37 50 28 18
81
175 163
143 153 156 169
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Burlington
So. Burlington
MICRO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REPORT Number of Sales
Richmond
Hinesburg
Es s ex
Colches ter
Charlotte
Winoos ki
Burlington
Addison
Middlebury
Ferris burgh
Willis ton
Vergennes
New Haven
Shoreham
Bridport
Waltham
YTD 2 015 Shelburne
YTD 2 016
8
88
260
246 243
237 251
196 177 136
143
120 156
129 127 105 173 89 88 65
95 92
64
58
30
116 92 72
62 77 56 71 61 83
334
335
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 So. Burlington
Average Days On Market
FourSeasonsSIR.com 11
0
12 FourSeasonsSIR.com
Vergennes
New Haven
Shoreham
Bridport
Waltham
Addison
Middlebury
Ferris burgh
Willis ton
Shelburne
Richmond
Hinesburg
Es s ex
Colches ter
Charlotte
Winoos ki
YTD 2 015
Burlington
YTD 2 016
So. Burlington
MICRO CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REPORT Average Sale Price
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
+ 108.33% Ferrisburgh Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016
100.87% Charlotte Sold/List Price % Q2 ytd 2016 MLS#4439030 MARY PAT PALMER
Consumers are willing to pay more for their home if it’s in the right location. Listings are spending less time on the market (depending on price point). Number of sales are up by large margins in Charlotte, Shelburne, Williston and Ferrisburgh.
MLS#4497658 NANCY WARREN
MICRO LAKE SUNAPEE REPORT Number of Sales 58
0
14 FourSeasonsSIR.com
31
36
5 7
26 12 13
20 21
24 20
20 5 7
10
15
20
23
YTD 2 015
15
30
29
YTD 2 016
35
40
43
50
43
50
60
61
70
194 218 126
211 202
233 228 105 33
180
237 216
399 138
156 110
238 145
181
215 111
88
YTD 2 015
129
YTD 2 016
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
405
Average Days on Market
FourSeasonsSIR.com 15
MICRO LAKE SUNAPEE REPORT Average Sale Price
YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015
16 FourSeasonsSIR.com
500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
MLS#4498829 PAM PERKINS
+42.85% Newport Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016
58
New London Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016 MLS#4469336 BO QUACKENBOS
Sold/list price ratio is steadily increasing in all towns.
+
-
Number of sales are up by at least 19% in all towns vs. quarter 2 2015. Sale Prices on average are down from quarter 2 2015.
MICRO LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE REPORT Number of Sales
50 0
18 FourSeasonsSIR.com
14 10
YTD 2 015
122 100 75 58
93 76
100
59
YTD 2 016
77
150
67
200
86
173
207
250
YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015
172 144
158
198 124 119
135 151
150
140 152
200
137 148
250
196 172
Average Days on Market
100 50 0
FourSeasonsSIR.com 19
MICRO LAKE WINNIPESAUKEE REPORT Average Sale Price 700,000.00 600,000.00 500,000.00 400,000.00 YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015
300,000.00 200,000.00 100,000.00 0.00
20 FourSeasonsSIR.com
MLS#4471359 BRIAN NEIDHARDT
Number of sales has risen in all towns by at least 22%.
+
Sold/list price ratio is remaining steady. Homes are continuing to stay on the market longer, but on average are selling for more than they were in quarter 2 2015. MLS#4502851 RUTH NEIDHARDT
+214.40% Center Harbor Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016
+30.50% Meredith Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016
FourSeasonsSIR.com 21
MICRO NORTHEAST KINGDOM REPORT Number of Sales 30
18
18
8 7
10
11
15 9
YTD 2 015
20
7
YTD 2 016
21
25
30
29
35
5 0 22 FourSeasonsSIR.com
Greensboro
Burke
Lyndon
Orleans
St. Johnsbury
Average Days on Market 353
400.00 350.00
200
220
201 83
150.00
157
YTD 2 015
129
200.00
179
YTD 2 016
154
250.00
223
300.00
100.00 50.00 0.00
Greensboro
Burke
Lyndon
Orleans
St. Johnsbury FourSeasonsSIR.com 23
MICRO NORTHEAST KINGDOM REPORT Average Sale Price 300,000.00 250,000.00 200,000.00 YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015
150,000.00 100,000.00 50,000.00 0.00
24 FourSeasonsSIR.com
Greensboro
Burke
Lyndon
Orleans
St. Johnsbury
MLS#4352744 KURT ZSCHAU
94.79% St. Johnsbury Sold/List Price % Q2 ytd 2016
+45.91% Burke Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016
MLS#4382635 KURT ZSCHAU
Sale price on average is rising by at least 20% in most towns. Number of sales are declining in all towns.
-
Average days on market is down except in St. Johnsbury. FourSeasonsSIR.com 25
MICRO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORT
50 0
26 FourSeasonsSIR.com
52 40
YTD 2 015
100
14 7
YTD 2 016
58 47
150
126 112
200
135 141
176 180
219
250
223
251
300
262
Number of Sales
Average Days on Market 260
300
112
93 113
92 65
45 45
50
60
YTD 2 015
100
68 63
YTD 2 016
77 76
150
100
158
200
145
250
0
FourSeasonsSIR.com 27
MICRO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORT
Average Sale Price
YTD 2 016 YTD 2 015
28 FourSeasonsSIR.com
500000 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
MLS#4457684 SHERRIE L. FRISONE
+19.23% Merrimack Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016
45
Merrimack Average Days on Market Q2 ytd 2016 MLS#4472201 LINDA ROSENTHALL
+
Number of sales are up in Amherst (12.5%) and Merrimack (17.48%). Sell/list ratio is over 97% and remaining steady in all towns. Homes are selling quicker in this market (77 days or less).
MICRO SOUTHERN VERMONT REPORT
30 FourSeasonsSIR.com
80 63
69
64 44
15
10 6
8 6
8 8
15 10
12 16
24 20
25 27 19 13
13 6
25
38 31
3 3
YTD 2 015
22 23
YTD 2 016
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
89
Number of Sales
279
367 148
224
309
355 117
200
252 261
226
323
373 312
359 293
310 192
229
332
316 327
326 173
262
355
427 244
240
102
YTD 2 015
188
YTD 2 016
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
475
Average Days on Market
FourSeasonsSIR.com 31
0
32 FourSeasonsSIR.com
Chester
Peru
Shrewsbury
Weathersfield
Cavendish
Plymouth
Ludlow
Stratton
Winhall
Londonderry
Wardsboro
Marlboro
Dover
Wilmington
YTD 2 0 15 Manchester
YTD 2 0 16
Dorset
MICRO SOUTHERN VERMONT REPORT
Average Sale Price
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
MLS#4470934 ADAM PALMITER
Homes are spending more time on the market. However, they are selling on average for more than they were quarter 2 2015.
+
On average, the number of sales are increasing from quarter 2 2015. Average sale price is on the rise in most towns in this region.
MLS#4450146 NANCY JENSEN
+105.62% Plymouth Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016
+116.66% Wardsboro Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016
YTD 2 015
34 FourSeasonsSIR.com
0 4 8 8 4 9 7 5 4 3 1 3 5
Pomfret Barnard Sharon Bridgewater West Fairlee Fairlee
17
12
13
9
6
6
32
30 36
46
90
104
101
124
140
Hartford
Thetford
Enfield
Cornish
Plainfield
Weathersfield
Woodstock
39
100
15 10
10 16
Lyme
20 15
40
Norwich
120
Lebanon
YTD 2 016 60 59 56
80
Hanover
MICRO UPPER VALLEY REPORT Number of Sales
YTD 2 016
YTD 2 015 Fairlee
West Fairlee
96 118
155
196
Bridgewater
273
261
272 237 163 183
140 154
234
183
Sharon
Barnard
Pomfret
Hartford
119
Thetford
209
226
200
177
134
110
117
50
69
Enfield
Cornish
Plainfield
Weathersfield
Woodstock
Lebanon
171 161
112 117
Norwich Lyme
97 103
377 327
355
444
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Hanover
Average Days on Market
FourSeasonsSIR.com 35
36 FourSeasonsSIR.com
Norwich
Woodstock
Lebanon
Fairlee
West Fairlee
Bridgewater
Sharon
Barnard
Pomfret
Hartford
Thetford
Enfield
Cornish
Plainfield
Weathersfield
YTD 2 015 Lyme
YTD 2 016
900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Hanover
MICRO UPPER VALLEY REPORT Average Sale Price
MLS#4503704 RICK HIGGERSON
The sold/list price ratio is remaining consistent between 90-98%. Average sale prices are on the rise in Hanover, Lyme, Lebanon and Weathersfield. Homes on average are spending less time on the market.
+50% Weathersfield Number of Sales Q2 ytd 2016
$532,890.00 Lyme Average Sale Price Q2 ytd 2016
FourSeasonsSIR.com 37
MACRO LUXURY REPORT
Defined as $600k+ Vermont & New Hampshire
Total Sales 100
95
90 FSSIR
80 70
Competitor A
60
Competitor B
50
Competitor C
40
Competitor D
30 20 10 0
38 FourSeasonsSIR.com
74 59
57 46
Total Sales in $000 100,000
91,824
90,000 FSSIR
80,000 70,000
Competitor A
60,000
Competitor B
50,000
Competitor C
40,000
Competitor D
60,541
59,813
54,401
52,659
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 39
MACRO LUXURY REPORT
Defined as $600k+ Vermont & New Hampshire
Average Days on Market 200
180
180 FSSIR
160 140
Competitor A
120
Competitor B
100
Competitor C
80
Competitor D
60 40 20 0
40 FourSeasonsSIR.com
153 140 115 94
1 rd 3 st
MLS#4446245 COURTNEY LEGGETT
$91,824,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
140
Average Days on Market Q2 ytd 2016
in sales in units and dollars.
shortest average days on market.
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ Vermont
Total Sales 60
57
50 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
40 30 20
20 12
10 0 42 FourSeasonsSIR.com
38
12
Total Sales in $000 60,000 50,000 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
40,000
49,848
32,729
30,000 20,000
16,001
16,704
17,235
10,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 43
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ Vermont
Average Days on Market 400
373 335
350 FSSIR
300
Competitor A
250
Competitor B
200
Competitor C
150
Competitor D
100 50 0
44 FourSeasonsSIR.com
167 134
63
1 rd 3 st
in total sales in units and dollars.
shortest average days on market.
MLS#4493566 CHERYL KERR MLS#4484785 CHERYL KERR
$49,848,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
57
Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
FourSeasonsSIR.com 45
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ New Hampshire
Total Sales 80 70 Competitor A
60
Competitor B
50
Competitor C
40
FSSIR
30
Competitor D
20 10 0
46 FourSeasonsSIR.com
67 59 54
38
38
Total Sales in $000 70,000 60,000 Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C FSSIR Competitor D
50,000
59,813 54,523
51,781 41,974
45,017
40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 47
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $600k+ New Hampshire
Average Days on Market 200
180
180 Competitor A
140
Competitor B
120
Competitor C
100
FSSIR Competitor D
80 60 40 20 0
48 FourSeasonsSIR.com
153
160 111
94 74
MLS#4494900 STAN BUTLER
$41,974,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
94 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
MLS#4504413 MELISSA ROBINSON
2 th 4
nd
lowest average days on market.
in total sales in units and dollars. FourSeasonsSIR.com 49
MACRO LUXURY REPORT
Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont & New Hampshire
Total Sales 30 25 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
20 15 10 5 0
50 FourSeasonsSIR.com
25
15 12
11
10
Total Sales in $000 45,000 40,000 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
38,520
35,000 30,000 25,000
28,150
26,921 21,405
20,000 15,000
14,244
10,000 5,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 51
MACRO LUXURY REPORT
Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont & New Hampshire
Average Days on Market 250 203
FSSIR Competitor A
200 150
151 135
Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
109
100 50 0
52 FourSeasonsSIR.com
28
MLS#4374987 PAULA HINCKLEY
1 rd 3 st
MLS#4479801 MARY PAT PALMER
$38,520,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
25
Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
in total sales in units and dollars.
in average days on market.
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont
Total Sales 14
13
12 FSSIR Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
10 8 6 4 2 0
54 FourSeasonsSIR.com
7 6 5 4
Total Sales in $000 20,000 18,000 FSSIR
16,000 14,000
Competitor A
12,000
Competitor B
10,000
Competitor C
8,000
Competitor D
17,163
12,630
12,332 9,440 6,840
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 55
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ Vermont
Average Days on Market 500 429
450 FSSIR
350
Competitor A
300
Competitor B
250
Competitor C
200
Competitor D
150 100 50 0
56 FourSeasonsSIR.com
381
400
220
216 156
MLS#4497658 KATHY O’BRIEN
1 rd 3 st
in total sales in units and dollars.
in average days on market.
MLS#4495383 KATHY O’BRIEN
$17,163,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
13
Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
FourSeasonsSIR.com 57
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ New Hampshire
Total Sales 16 14 Competitor A
12
FSSIR
10
Competitor B
8
Competitor C
6
Competitor D
4 2 0
58 FourSeasonsSIR.com
15
12
12
9
9
Total Sales in $000 30000 25000 Competitor A FSSIR Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
28,150 24,346 21,357
21,405
20000 15000
12,203
10000 5000 0 FourSeasonsSIR.com 59
MACRO LUXURY REPORT Defined as $1 Million+ New Hampshire
Average Days on Market 250 203
Competitor A FSSIR
200 150
135
Competitor B Competitor C Competitor D
100 50 0
60 FourSeasonsSIR.com
97 82
25
MLS#4464723 PAM PERKINS
$21,357,000 Total Sales Q2 ytd 2016
82
Average Days on Market Q2 ytd 2016
MLS#4466824 JUDY CASHMAN
2 nd 2 nd
in total sales in units and dollars.
in average days on market.
&
VERMONT NEW HAMPSHIRE
Lake Sunapee Region New London: 603.526.4050
Northeast Kingdom St. Johnsbury: 802.751.7582
Lake Winnipesaukee Region Meredith: 603.677.7012 Wolfeboro: 603.941.1000
Southern Vermont Mount Snow: 802.464.1200 Stratton: 802.297.1100 Manchester: 802.362.4551 Okemo: 802.228.4537 Bromley: 802.824.3113
Upper Valley Fairlee: 802.333.4701 Hanover: 603.643.6070 603.643.6400 West Lebanon: 603.298.5155
Champlain Valley Middlebury: 802.388.1000 Vergennes: 802.877.3232 South Burlington: 802.864.0541
*All Data NEREN 1/1/16 - 6/30/16 & Trendgraphix 1/1/16 - 6/30/16
STOWE ST JOHNSBURY
VERGENNES MIDDLEBURY
RANDOLPH
FAIRLEE HANOVER
RUTLAND
OKEMO
Southern New Hampshire Bedford: 603.413.7600
Central Vermont Rutland: 802.774.7007 Stowe: 802.253.7267 Randolph: 802.565.8136
62 FourSeasonsSIR.com
SOUTH BURLINGTON
MANCHESTER
WEST LEBANON
MEREDITH
NEW LONDON
BROMLEY STRATTON
BEDFORD MOUNT SNOW
WOLFEBORO