F&R Livestock Resource, Fall 2018 by F&R Livestock Resource

F&R LivestockResource

Fall 2018 | Volume 2, Issue 1

Your direct source for livestock news and information

Published by Farmers & Ranchers Livestock, Salina, Kansas

In this Issue: 1 Endless Haul for Priceless Gain

The Veterinary Feed Directive was one step in the journey of antibiotic stewardship. A look at the past 20 months of VFD and research into whether there is a link between antibiotics in animals and humans.

11 Cow-Calf Herd Health

Secure optimal health in newly weaned calves. Along with your veterinarian, take a good look at your herd health program to ensure a successful weaning.

13 Multiple Gains

Start and grow calves with the same limit-fed, high-energy ration. Recent KSU research indicates morbidity from high-energy diets is not the case when calves are limit-fed rations with energy from fermentable fiber rather than fermentable carbohydrates.

18 Cattle Management

Producers and animal health officials take another crack at a standardized national cattle ID system. The Animal Disease Traceability program became law in 2013. Some describe it as a bookend system, by which animal health officials can track animals forward from where they received the official identification tag and back from the animal’s last location.

26 Lookin’ for Mojo The latest episode of Hooter McCormick’s misadventures.

32 Steady as She Goes

Fall calf and feeder prices appear similar to last year. Despite plentiful supplies of cattle, beef and competing proteins, demand means there’s no reason to expect cattle markets to fall apart or to climb against seasonal trends.

Endless Haul for Priceless Gain The Veterinary Feed Directive was one step in the journey of antibiotic stewardship. By Wes Ishmael

“We can spit the bit and buck around, but that’s the future,” says Mike Apley, DVM, veterinarian and professor of production medicine and clinical pharmacology at Kansas State University’s (KSU) College of Veterinary Medicine.

Apley refers specifically to growing demand for records of antibiotic use, and transparency, from the supply chain, but it serves as an apt observation for the overall conundrum animal and human medicine face Continued on page 4 ________________________________________

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RESIDUE WARNING: Cattle must not be slaughtered within 13 days following last treatment. For dairy cattle, the milk discard time is zero hours. A withdrawal period has not been established for this product in pre-ruminating calves. Do not use in calves to be processed for veal. Consult your local veterinarian for assistance in the diagnosis, treatment and control of parasitism. 1. Anthelmintic activities of fenbendazole against Nematodirus helvetianus in cattle: effect on egg production, embryogeny, and development of larval stages. Ahmad Samizadeh-Yazd,.b[5], and A. C. Todd, PhD. merck-animal-health-usa.com - 800-521-5767 Copyright ©2018 Intervet Inc., doing business as Merck Animal Health, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

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F&R Livestock

From the Editor

Resource

Volume 2, Issue 1 Fall 2018

The food production complex may be complicated. The demand for quality is not.

Published quarterly by

Farmers & Ranchers Livestock, Salina, Kansas 1500 W. Old Hwy 40 Salina, Kansas 67401 785-825-0211 • 785-826-1590 (fax) FandRLive.com

find us on Facebook

Facebook.com/FarmersAndRanchersLivestock/

Owner: Farmers & Ranchers Livestock, Mike Samples, Salina, Kansas (785) 826-7884 Editor: Deb Norton, Deb@CogentIdeasInc.com Production Coordinator: Julie Tucker Graphic Designer: Daric Wells Editorial Assistants: Dixie Russell, Dave Cumpton Contributing Editors: Wes Ishmael, Paige Nelson and Micah Samples Contributing Artist: Ted Foulkes Sales Andrew Sylvester Farmers & Ranchers Livestock (785) 456-4352 Jay Carlson Carlson Media Group, LLC (913) 967-9085 Subscriber Questions: To be added to our mailing list, contact Julie Tucker, Julie@CogentIdeasInc.com. F&R Livestock Resource is published quarterly with mail dates of January 15, March 1, August 15 and October 1 by Farmers & Ranchers Livestock, Salina, Kansas.

Nothing is as simple as it seems. As a marketer, I’m convinced most everything related to food production is inordinately more complicated. But, complicated does not equal bad. In fact, one can argue that in the proper context, complicated systems like beef production provide an incredible opportunity to strategically market to vastly diverse global customers. Our challenge is to recognize the complexities of global marketing. Cultures, ethnicities, diets and socio-economic stratum challenge us to engage differently. At the production level, historically, we’ve kept marketing food at an arm’s length. Producers are concerned with breeding cows, getting a live calf, forage demands, health, catastrophic weather events—an endless list of real-world responsibilities rightly overshadow a producer’s concern about marketing beef. Marketing beef has always been someone else’s problem. Producers wait for signals and make decisions about whether to make production changes or not. From day one, the focus of F&R Livestock Resource has been about exploring ways to add and capture value in cattle production. In today’s communication environment, it’s paramount to determine fact from fiction. Sort the noise from reality. An ongoing debate among industry thought leaders and academia circles

around the beef industry’s progress toward improving quality. Some will argue there’s a point of diminishing return and that quality production may exceed demand. Our industry’s analytics simply do not support the argument and in fact, indicate the quality ceiling is very high with lots of room to grow at virtually no increase in production cost. Mark McCully, vice president of production for Certified Angus Beef ®, recently presented data during his Beef Improvement Federation (BIF) presentation that should excite even the most cynical. McCully audaciously told attendees that marbling was basically free and offered convincing data to prove it. He went on to say that producers are significantly improving end product quality without compromising cow function. Our industry is collecting and analyzing marketing data that suggest consumers, domestically and globally, appreciate and are willing to pay for quality. And they are proving it with their pocketbooks. From 2010 to 2018, USDA Prime has almost doubled and Select has fallen 40 percent. McCully told BIF attendees, “Packers reported $75 million paid back to the cattle owners on grid premiums (in 2017), specifically for CAB.” Paul Dykstra, beef cattle specialist for CAB, reported in the September 5, 2018, CAB® Insider, the week of August 12 set a new record for Certified Angus Beef ® brand acceptance and qualifying rates at 33.8 percent. The week set a new all-time record for CAB production. Even more remarkable, Dykstra reported, “The new record came in conjunction with a time when, ironically, the percent of carcasses grading Choice dipped two points lower than a year ago, pulling the combined Choice and Prime grade share one percentage point below a year ago. Somehow the successful share of CAB eligible carcasses increased to nearly 34 percent, defying the slightly lower marbling trend and seeing the CAB approval stamped on the largest weekly head count ever, cementing August as the largest CAB production month in the brand’s 40-year history.” Back to the consumer—while there’s a lot of good news about quality steaks, CAB will also sell more than 100 million pounds of ground beef this year. I live in the city and work in the country and am convinced that, as a marketer, I have benefitted greatly from the dichotomy of rural versus urban and production versus end product consumption. My “city” friends have almost no concept of how food gets to their table, yet, are seriously interested in knowing. They are uncomfortable discussing the death of the animal but reluctantly

Continued on page 30 ___________________________________________________________________________________

Farmers & Ranchers Upcoming Sales and Events 10th Annual F&R Futurity......................October 12 12th Rope Horse Preview.....................October 12 Fall Classic Catalog Horse Sale............October 13 20th Annual Fall Colt & Yearling Sale....October 14 Calf Sale.................................................October 16 Cow Sale................................................October 23

Calf Sale.................................................October 30 Calf Sale............................................... November 6 Cow Sale............................................November 20 Preconditioned Calf Sale..................... December 4 Cow Sale............................................ December 18 Preconditioned Calf Sale...............January 8, 2019

Preconditioned Calf Sale............. February 5, 2019 Regular Scheduled Sales Monday (hogs, calves, small lots & weigh-ups) Thursday (stocker/feeder day)

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F&R Livestock Resource page 3

Continued from page 1 ________________________________________

when it comes to antibiotic use. Antibiotics are a shared societal resource. Antibiotic use begets antibiotic resistance to the point some antibiotics are no longer effective in treating certain infections. Classes of antibiotics today are likely all that will be available for the foreseeable future. “We’re reaching a post-antibiotic era where we have patients with infections that we can’t treat,” explained Kurt Stevenson, MD, medical director at the Ohio State University, at the 2016 Antibiotic Symposium hosted by the National Institute for Animal Agriculture (NIAA). “Antibiotics are unlike any other drug, in that use of the agent in one patient can compromise its efficacy in another.” In the NIAA white paper from the symposium, Stevenson explained, “We have patients for whom there are no drugs available to treat them. We see this on a regular but not daily basis. For some, the choice is very limited and requires more expensive drugs and those with higher toxicity.” Resistance challenges are documented in beef cattle, too. For instance, Apley explains Mannheimia haemolytica (a primary bovine respiratory disease [BRD]

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20 Months of the Veterinary Feed Directive “I think documentation and transparency of antibiotic use will be the price of admission,” says Mike Apley, DVM, veterinarian and professor of production medicine and clinical pharmacology at Kansas State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine. “That’s what the Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD) started. It’s a clear indication of animal agriculture being transparent and good stewards of antibiotics.” In simple terms, the VFD regulates how medically important antibiotics—antibiotics important for treating humans—can be used in livestock feed and water, for the purposes of preventing, treating or controlling disease. It’s aimed at reducing the growing threat of antimicrobial resistance in humans and animals. Apley explains examples of medically important antibiotics regulated by the VFD include tylosin, chlortetracycline, oxytetracycline, neomycin, tilmicosin and chlortetracycline/sulfamethazine (a fixed combination). “The issue isn’t how much the drugs are used in human medicine,” Apley explains. “Many of the multidrug resistant organisms in both veterinary and human medicine have genetics which are carried on transferable genetic elements such as plasmids. There are multiple plasmids which contain resistance genes to the most basic of antibiotics, such as the tetracyclines, and the highest priority antibiotics, such as the fluoroquinolones and the cephalosporins. It is about co-selection within different bacterial populations, not pathogen) went from showing minimal resistance early this century to 75-80 percent of diagnostic laboratory isolates showing multidrug

just the specific antibiotic being used.” As of Jan. 1, 2017, administering medically important antibiotics to animals via feed or water requires documented veterinary oversight, which requires a valid veterinarian-client-patient relationship. It’s this latter point which could offer the most significant impact over time. “It is apparent in my experiences that the new VFD labels have resulted in countless veterinary-client conversations which would not otherwise have occurred,” Apley says. Although VFD inspections are increasing, Apley explains, “We’re still in the education phase… We’ve figured out the logistics and mechanics of getting this done, and we’ve identified the highest-stress areas between producers and veterinarians, and it’s whether an antibiotic is needed for treatment or not. Tetracycline in feed has created the most angst.” For cow-calf producers and stocker operators, that point revolves around the fact you can no longer pick up a bag of crumbles at the local supply store to treat ailments like pink eye and footrot. Never mind the fact that it was never labeled for those purposes to begin with. For feedlots, feeding tetracycline to control liver abscesses is the monkey in the punch bowl. “Antibiotics are a shared societal resource, and we’re heading toward a new balance in the regard,” Apley says. “We’d better hope that new balance includes us being able to continue using them for addressing disease.”

resistance today in some labs. “As recently as 2000, we just didn’t see very much resistance in respiratory disease pathogens in cattle,” Apley

says. “It still isn’t uniform in the population of BRD pathogens, but in the population of Mannheimia haemolytica isolates, isolated in diagnostic

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laboratories, we have seen a dramatic shift over the last decade. “We think these are primarily isolates from high-risk calves. Some of the research would suggest that these aren’t even uniformly distributed throughout some groups of calves from which the isolate was isolated, but they weren’t being isolated from diagnostic submissions at this rate 10 years ago.” Notice, none of the above considers any possible causal relationship between the use of antibiotics in livestock and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in humans. For the record, considering objective resources, there is no conclusive scientific proof one way or the other. One example from the NIAA white paper: “The authors of the most exhaustive analysis of the

“Finger pointing from either direction is misguided and fruitless. Successful antibiotic stewardship demands cooperation. Although there are undoubtedly naysayers in both the human and livestock camps of medicine, the philosophies of some on the front lines of the debate are, perhaps unsurprisingly, eerily similar.” —Kurt Stevenson current state of scientific knowledge about the link between on-farm use of antibiotics and emergence of AMR pathogens conclude, ‘The current literature is inadequately detailed to establish a causal relationship between antibiotic use in agricultural animals and antibiotic-resistant campylobacteriosis in humans.’” Likewise, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) completed a

Safeguarding Antibiotics for Future Use You can find the following in “Antibiotic Stewardship for Beef Producers,” from the checkoff-funded Beef Quality Assurance program. 1. Prevent problems: Emphasize appropriate husbandry and hygiene, routine health examinations, and vaccinations. 2. Select and use antibiotics carefully: Consult with your veterinarian on the selection and use of antibiotics. Have a valid reason to use an antibiotic. Therapeutic alternatives should be considered prior to using antimicrobial therapy. 3. Avoid using antibiotics important in human medicine as first-line therapy: Avoid using as the first antibiotic those medications that are important to treating strategic human or animal infections. 4. Use the laboratory to help you select antibiotics: Cultures and susceptibility test results should be used to aid in the selection of antibiotics, whenever possible. 5. Combination antibiotic therapy is discouraged unless there is clear evidence the specific practice is beneficial: Select and dose an antibiotic to effect a cure. 6. Avoid inappropriate antibiotic use: Confine therapeutic antibiotic use to proven clinical indications, avoiding inappropriate uses such as for viral infections without bacterial complication. 7. Treatment programs should reflect best-use principles: Regimens for therapeutic antimicrobial use should be optimized using current pharmacological information and principles. 8. Treat the fewest number of animals possible: Limit antibiotic use to sick or at-risk animals. 9. Treat for the recommended time period: To minimize the potential for bacteria to become resistant to antimicrobials. 10. Avoid environmental contamination with antibiotics: Steps should be taken to minimize antimicrobials reaching the environment through spillage, contaminated ground runoff or aerosolization. 11. Keep records of antibiotic use: Accurate records of treatment and outcome should be used to evaluate therapeutic regimens; always follow proper withdrawal times. 12. Follow label directions: Follow label instructions and never use antibiotics other than as labeled without a valid veterinary prescription. 13. Extra-label antibiotic use must follow FDA regulations: Prescriptions, including extra-label use of medications must meet the Animal Medicinal Drug Use Clarification Act (AMDUCA) amendments to the Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act and its regulations. This includes having a valid veterinary-client relationship. 14. Subtherapeutic antibiotic use is discouraged: Antibiotic use should be limited to prevent or control disease and should not be used if the principle intent is to improve performance.

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Fall 2018

first-of-its-kind study in 2016 (“Resistome Diversity in Cattle…”) that tracked antibiotic resistance through the beef production process by looking at transmission through meat products and environmental effluents. CSU researchers included Keith Belk, holder of the Ken and Myra Monfort Endowed Chair in Meat Science, and Paul Morley, veterinary internal medicine specialist and epidemiologist. The Beef Checkoff and the USDA National Institutes of Food and Agriculture funded the study. Bottom line, the CSU study found AMR in the feedlot where cattle were fed (feces), on the trucks that hauled them, in water of holding pens and at the packing house. But, Belk explains, “In this particular study, with the sensitivity available to us, we couldn’t find a single, solitary AMR gene in the meat product leaving the packing plant, going to consumers.” That’s not saying there are none. It does suggest that meat from cattle receiving antibiotics, as a conduit to passing along resistance to humans, is negligible. “Where we do believe it could be a problem is how we disseminate those genetics into the environment,” says Belk. Of course, proving or disproving a causal relationship isn’t necessarily the point.

Consumer Care About “Why?” “The question from consumers, regulators and retailers isn’t about whether the antibiotics are effective for what we use them for, although we should be concerned about preserving them,” Apley explains. “The question is, ‘Why do you have to use antibiotics to prevent disease?’ Just being able to document that antibiotics have an effect in treating disease isn’t enough anymore.” In other words, why is there a predicted 40 percent morbidity rate among high-risk calves at arrival, prompting consideration of metaphylaxis? Why are liver abscesses so prevalent in feedlot cattle that feeding tetracycline is common practice for control? Keep in mind Apley has invested lots of personal time and effort

on the front lines of the antibiotic resistance debate, on behalf of cattle producers. For instance, he was appointed by the Secretary of Health and Human Services to serve as a member of the Presidential Advisory Council on Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria. “Everyone in the livestock business needs to get over this bunker mentality that we’ve been singled out. It’s legitimate for people to ask us why we need to use antibiotics to treat disease,” Apley says. “Having to use an antibiotic for disease prevention or control, means we failed at everything else we can do to prevent that disease. Antibiotics can be valuable tools, and in some cases they are definitely needed regardless of our best efforts. But, in some cases, our best efforts can greatly reduce the need for their use.” The same goes for human medicine. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that 30 percent of all antibiotics prescribed in outpatient clinics are unnecessary, according to “2017 Antibiotic Use in the United States” (AUUS) from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. “In 2015, approximately 269 million antibiotic prescriptions were dispensed from outpatient pharmacies in the United States, enough for five out of every six people to receive one antibiotic prescription each year,” according to the AUUS. “Even when antibiotics are needed, prescribers often favor drugs that may be less effective and carry more risk over more targeted firstline drugs recommended by national guidelines.” The same over-prescribing and miss-prescribing goes on in hospitals. “More than half of patients received at least one antibiotic during their hospital stay (2016) …there were significant changes in the types of antibiotics prescribed (compared to a previous study) with the most powerful antibiotics being used more often than others,” say AUUS authors. That doesn’t consider that up to 75 percent of antibiotics prescribed in nursing homes are prescribed incorrectly, according to the CDC. Finger pointing from either direction is misguided and fruitless. Successful antibiotic stewardship demands cooperation. Although there are undoubtedly naysayers in both the human and livestock camps of medicine, the philosophies of some on the front lines of the debate are, perhaps unsurprisingly, eerily similar. “Antimicrobial stewardship

Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Salina, Kansas

Fall Classic Catalog Horse Sale Saturday, October 13

Sale Highlights

Rope Horse Preview

Lot 14: 2014 chestnut stallion by Smart Chic Olena—AQHA point earner, finished heel horse Lot #16: 2004 bay gelding Poco Bueno X Doc O’Lena—rope horse #12 on down, ranch horse

Lot #19: 2011 bay gelding by Paddy Socks out of a daughter of Colonel Hotrodder—ranch, rope, SALE HIGHLIGHT Lot #21: 2004 red dun gelding— finished head horse, won multiple saddles and buckles at USTRC, World Series, jackpots and rodeos Lot #26: 2011 bay gelding grandson of Frenchman’s Guy and Paddy’s Irish Whiskey— ranch horse Lot #91: 2016 red roan gelding by Hickory Holly Time Out of High Brow Cat dam—started and checking pastures

Lot #107: 2010 palomino gelding—grandson of Dual Pep, finished heel horse

Friday Evening

• 16 gray gelding by Three Dee Skyline—2019 futurity eligible • 10 dun gelding Smart Little Lena X High Brow Hickory—ranch horse • 14 palomino gelding Watch Joe Jack x Tyrees Watch—ranch horse • 14 bay gelding grandson of Freckles Playboy-ranch horse • 15 buckskin gelding by Premium Buck—pretty, started • 11 red roan gelding OSU Power Slide X Cee Booger Red—ranch horse • 16 red roan gelding Doc O’Lena X Peptoboonsmal—futurity eligible • 05 sorrel gelding grandson of Shining Spark—veteran ranch horse • 13 bay mare by Joe Jack Red—broodmare • 14 sorrel mare by Show Me A Song Joes—broodmare • 11 dun mare by Genuine Hombre—broodmare • 11 sorrel mare by Duke Joe Jack—broodmare • 11 sorrel gelding by Lenas Peppy Smoker—ranch, feedyard • 16 sorrel gelding by CRR Hurricane Cat • 14 red roan mare by a grandson of Peptoboonsmal—ranch horse • 15 sorrel gelding Special Task X First Down Dash—prospect • 09 black mare by One Hot King—family, ranch and rope horse • 14 sorrel gelding Cudd Breeding—Boonlight Dancer X Herman Goldseeker—ranch horse • 13 sorrel gelding grandson of Smart Chick Olena—ranch and feedyard • 10 bay gelding Peptoboonsmal X Reminic—ranch and feedyard • 08 dun gelding grandson of Bob Acre Doc—ranch, team rope • 09 buckskin gelding grandson of Wilywood—ranch, team rope • 08 bay gelding Miss N Cash X Joe Jack Honey Bar—ranch, team rope • 14 sorrel gelding by Two Eyed Red Buck—ranch, team rope • 15 sorrel gelding Hollywood Dun It X Doc Tari—ranch • 16 red roan mare by grandson of Miss N Cash—good broke • 03 dun gelding by Wilywood—team rope, family, jr rodeos • 14 dun gelding by Three Dee Skyline—fancy broke, team rope, ranch • 15 buckskin gelding Genuine Hombre X Real Gun—futurity eligible • 11 sorrel mare by Mr Freckles O’Lena—ranch, team rope • 08 gray gelding grandson of Frenchmans Guy—broke ranch horse • 02 bay mare by Paddys Irish Whiskey—broodmare • 03 chestnut gelding by CT Reyn Mann—finished reiner & cowhorse, proven winner • 12 sorrel gelding grandson of Smart Chic Olena—really broke genuine ranch horse • 15 sorrel mare by Capitan Hook out of daughter of Write It Down • 14 bay gelding by DMNV Mountable (SI 107—$479,000) • 16 sorrel gelding grandson of Docs Oak—2019 futurity eligible

10th Annual F&R Futurity • $14,000 added money Friday, October 12, 2018, 11:00 AM

20th Annual • Fall Colt & Yearling Catalog Sale

Farmers & Ranchers Livestock, Salina, Kansas • October 14, 2018 Selling 250 baby colts and yearlings representing great bloodlines like Realgun, Docs Hickory, Sun Frost, Dash for Cash, Smart Chic O’Lena, Genuine Hombre, Goldfinger, Two, Sophisticated Cat, Shining Spark, Peptoboonsmal, High Brow Hickory, OSU Power Slide, Lions Share of Fame, Goldseeker Bar, Three Dee Skyline to name a few.

Lot #207: palomino colt— grandson of Peptoboonsmal

These colts and yearlings will be paid up in the 2020 and 2021 F&R Cow Horse Futurity.

Come buy your next winner with us on October 14.

YOUR KANSAS CONNECTION FOR RANCH & ROPE HORSES Lot #303: Dun filly by Three Dee Skyline out of Dual Pep mare

Farmers & Ranchers 2018 Upcoming Fall Special Sales Calf Sales (all Tuesdays at 12 Noon) • October 16, 30 and November 6

Cow Sales (all Tuesdays at 12 Noon) • October 23, November 20, December 18

Lot #332-2017: red road gelding by Rio Little out of a granddaughter of Peptoboonsmal

Lot #352: chestnut colt grandson of Haidas Little Pep out of Colonel Hotrodder mare

Early consignments include 55 black cows 3-5 years old, bred to Deer Run Angus bulls; 300 black cows 3-5 years old, bred to Rinkes Angus; 130 black cows 6 to older, bred to Rinkes Angus; 20 Angus cows 2-4 years old, bred to Angus bulls due to calve starting March 1; plus more by sale time.

Weaned/Vaccinated Sales (all Tuesdays at 12 Noon) December 4; January 8, 2019; February 5, 2019

Don’t forget we also have our regular scheduled sales: Monday—hogs, calves, small lots and weigh-ups, Thursday—stocker/feeder day Please give us a call, we would love to help market your animals.

Farmers & Ranchers • 785-825-0211 • Mike Samples • 785-826-7884 | Kyle Elwood • 785-493-2901 Visit our Website: www.FandRLive.com

F&R Livestock Resource page 7

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includes not only limiting inappropriate use, but also optimizing antimicrobial selection, dosing, route and duration of therapy to maximize clinical cure or prevention of infection, while limiting the unintended consequences, such as the emergence of resistance, adverse drug events and cost,” Stevenson explained. “I tell our staff and physicians that antibiotics are unlike any other drug. They’re societal drugs,” Stevenson explained. “If I use an antibiotic in one patient today, it may influence the ability of that drug to effectively treat another patient tomorrow. That’s a point we have to continue to bring home to clinicians.” “The principles of judicious use of antibiotics are encompassed in the following,” say authors of “The Doctrine of Judicious Antibiotic Use” from the Washington State University College of Veterinary Medicine. “Use an antibiotic only when indicated, choose a cost-effective agent which provides appropriate antimicrobial coverage for the diagnosis that is suspected, and prescribe the optimal dose and duration for the antimicrobial which maximizes clinical therapeutic effect while minimizing both drug-related toxicity and the development of antimicrobial resistance.” More specifically, Apley explains, “As a veterinarian, once the disease pressure is identified, you enter into a cycle of asking if there is a non-antibiotic alternative which will prevent, control or treat the disease challenge. Can I do it with vaccines, can I do it with environment, with genetics, with altering production pressure, with biosecurity? We are expected to do that first.” Apley emphasizes there are plenty of compelling, proactive examples of improving judicious antibiotic use in the livestock industries, including the Veterinary Feed Directive (VFD) that became law at the beginning of 2017 (see “20 Months of the VFD”). Besides which, antibiotic stewardship has long been part of the industry’s Beef Quality Assurance program (see “Safeguarding Antibiotics for Future Use”). “For producers and veterinarians, antibiotic resistance isn’t just about whether we do or don’t affect human antibiotic resistance,” Apley says. “It’s about also preserving these valuable tools for use on our animals 10 to 20 years down the road. We have to be good stewards of them, and that means doing everything we possibly can to minimize our need to use them. Then we can have them when we do need them for decades to come.”

On both the human and livestock sides of the debate, it’s hard to overestimate the price of ineffective antibiotic use or the notion of being unable to use them.

Use and Resistance Cost Dearly On both the human and livestock sides of the debate, it’s hard to overestimate the price of ineffective antibiotic use or the notion of being unable to use them. Consider that the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations estimates that approximately 700,000 human deaths each year are related to antimicrobial resistant (AMR) infections. The toll on human health results in a vicious circle with economics. “Drug-resistant infections have the potential to cause a level of economic damage similar to—and likely worse than—that caused by the 2008 financial crisis,” according to a report from the World Bank, “Drug Resistant Infections: A Threat to Our Economic Future.” According to “Antibiotic Resistant Threats in the United States” from the CDC, campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis are among the most serious threats in terms of antibiotic-resistant infections in humans. In 2013, minimum estimates of drug-resistant campylobacter infections were 310,000 with deaths estimated at 28. For drug-resistant non-typhoidal salmonella it was 100,000 infections and 40 deaths. In total, CDC listed 18 antibiotic-resistant microorganisms resulting in 2.05 million infections and 23,488 deaths. For cattle, besides the resistance challenges, such as those cited earlier, the absence of antibiotic use, without viable alternatives, means more economic cost, as well as a likely higher toll on animal welfare. Just considering the economics, KSU researchers recently completed a study that examines the use of metaphylaxis to eliminate or minimize the onset of disease in cattle with high health risk. According to USDA, metaphylaxis is used selectively by 59 percent of U.S. feedlots on 20.5 percent of all cattle placed on feed. If metaphylaxis were eliminated in the U.S. cattle industry without suitable health management alternatives, it could cost that industry as much as $1.8 billion annually, according to the study.

The very first step in real world ranching isn’t a metaphor. The very first step to profitability is a live calf literally taking its first step. Conception rates are obviously important. But, the real importance is a live, vigorous calf born unassisted in real world conditions. When we make mating decisions, calving ease EPDs and docility are nonnegotiable. When a new calf finds its legs and takes the first few steps, we expect the new mom to help us make sure her baby never has a bad day. Maternal strength in our cow herd is based on a well managed program of good nutrition, health, and disciplined genetics applying selection pressure to traits that influence maternal performance in the pasture.

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“A lot of that direct cost would be absorbed by the feedlot, but a very significant amount of it would go back to cow-calf producers who

are supplying calves,” explains Ted Schroeder, a KSU livestock economist and extension and university distinguished professor of agricultural

economics. “Even if they are supplying healthy calves, they are still going to be influenced because, overall, the feedlot sector’s costs get passed down

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because they are a margin-taker.” In a world where antibiotics are less effective in use, or no longer available to use, overall industry efficiency likely declines unless antibiotic alternatives can be found and/or management practices are changed so less antibiotic intervention is necessary. As Apley explains, “In a nature to production system, when you remove an input to the production system, you have less output with less efficiency, or you need to change something else.” Within ten years, he suspects antibiotic use and documentation will be a point of price differentiation in calves, feeder cattle and fed cattle, driven by consumer demand. It may not be the case of getting a proverbial premium or even necessarily a direct discount. But market access will likely be widest for cattle that comply with all demands. “Antibiotic use, as a routine management tool, is becoming less and less palatable to marketing chains that are working to differentiate themselves,” Apley says. “We produce a lot of protein options in this country. People are kidding themselves if they think antibiotic use in production isn’t going to be a point of differentiation.”

2 7 For more than 20 years this has proven to be a successful path for hundreds in the HPR Family. On your journey for genetic solutions you will find Harms Plainview Ranch is a comfortable place to call home.

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Moser Ranch

Fall 2018

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Cow-Calf Herd Health Secure optimal health in newly weaned calves.

By Randall K. Spare, DVM, Ashland Verterinary Center

During late summer and fall of the year, ranchers are anticipating the fruits of their labor—weaning and removing the calves from the cow. This season represents not only the labor of the last eight to ten months since calving, but from the time of conception. A cow-calf producer’s genetic choices, or what bulls were used, come to fruition. As the cow calendar moves to weaning time, ranchers often ask, “Is there anything new this year to vaccinate my calves at weaning?” This is always a great question, but maybe a little late to achieve the desired results of little or no sickness. Weaning is one of the most stressful times in a calf ’s life. As a veterinarian advising the beef production cycle, it is an exciting time to see producers use available tools to achieve success. In examining the weaning process in relationship to a herd health management program, it is always important to seek the advice of the local veterinarian that understands your environment, your management style, and the risks that you are willing to assume. It is important to understand your goals or your desired outcomes with your calves. Are they going to an NHTC feeder, will they be sold off of the cow, or will they be weaned on the ranch? The cornerstone of a cow calf herd health program is bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) control. There are many unknowns today in beef cattle production, but we do know that as BVD is eliminated from any cow herd, risk is mitigated in relationship

The cornerstone of a cow calf herd health program is bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) control.

to health management. BVD is an immunosuppressive virus, suppressing the immune system, creating an opportunity for other bacterial and viral agents to gain access and create an infection. When a ranch has more pinkeye, footrot, scours, or pneumonia than is acceptable, we will investigate the BVD status. Testing procedures are available to screen a whole herd. If BVD is present, then individual animals can be tested.

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Persistently infected (PI) BVD calves are born carrying the virus and are generally the reservoir within a cow herd. These calves will spread BVD everyday of life out of every orifice of their body. This disease challenge places pressure on the immune status of all of the animals within the herd as long as the infected calf is present. Managing BVD involves testing, vaccinating and biosecurity. Optimum health of weaning calves is initiated with colostral intake at birth. Studies show that when a calf fails to consume adequate quality or

Respiratory diseases can be mitigated with perinatal calf management.

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Fall 2018

quantity colostrum, it is more likely to become sick or die during its life. As caretakers, we need to scrutinize our management near the birthing process to assure maximum immunoglobulin intake from colostrum. The stress of weaning creates an opportunity for extra pathogens to be present and the immune system to be under pressure so that an infection is initiated. However, respiratory diseases can be mitigated with perinatal calf management. Vaccination for respiratory disease can be started as early as 2-3 months of age at the traditional branding time. Vaccination at this time jump starts active immunity in the calf. The protection provided by colostrum in combination with vaccination will offer defense against infection during late summer and early fall. Several different products are available that can be discussed with your veterinarian to help withstand those disease challenges. Preweaning vaccine would include a 5-way viral vaccine, Manheimia haemolytica, and Pasteurella multocida antigens. These are the major culprits that cause respiratory disease near weaning. After calves are weaned, a booster vaccine should be given to create a long-lasting immunity. It is important to tailor the vaccination program to match the ranch’s management risk tolerance. The labels for all vaccines indicate they are to be given to healthy, nonstressed calves to get the most robust immune response. Proper care of the vaccine will also assure the most effectiveness. Since we are in the middle of fall cow-calf work, it is a time to look at the health management program to insure that each day is a good day in the coming days for each animal on our livestock operations.

Multiple Gains With High-Energy Receiving Start and grow calves with the same limit-fed, high-energy ration. By Wes Ishmael

“High-energy diets based on corn by-products can be fed to newly received stocker cattle without negative effects on overall health,” says Dale Blasi, extension livestock specialist at Kansas State University (KSU). If you overlook the mention of corn by-products and focus on high energy, such a statement seems counterintuitive, running against the grain of popular logic and experience. After all, high-energy diets fed to calves are often associated with increased morbidity, stemming from acidosis and other metabolic disorders. That’s still true when corn is the main energy source and cattle are fed ad libitum. Based on recent KSU research, though, that’s not the case when calves are limit-fed rations with energy coming from fermentable fiber rather than fermentable carbohydrates (starch, primarily). Think here of substituting corn with the fermentable fiber of wet corn gluten feed (WCGF) or the fermentable fiber and fat in wet distillers grains with solubles (WDGS). More specifically, consider a diet providing 60 mega calories (Mcals) of net energy for gain (NEG) per 100 pounds of dry matter, fed at 2.0-2.5 percent of body weight.

KSU High-Energy, Limit-Feeding Research Tyler Spore, currently a doctoral student at the University of Nebraska, led four successive, non-sponsored research feeding trials at KSU’s Beef Stocker Unit (BSU) in 2016. There were 1,444 calves across the trials, received at the BSU from Montana, Florida, Texas, New Mexico and Tennessee. Calves received long stem prairie hay on the day of arrival. They were introduced to the limit-fed diet the following day at a feeding rate of 1.0-1.5 percent dry matter (DM) on a body weight basis. “The desired maximum amount of dry matter intake allowed (2.02.2 percent of body weight) was attained within one to two weeks, as dictated by cattle appetite, which can be curbed by limit-feeding,” Blasi explains. In a nutshell, the first KSU trial compared the performance of starting high-risk calves on a high-roughage, low-energy diet, fed ad libitum, versus a high-energy, low-roughage diet that provided most of the energy via fer-

mentable fiber, WCGF, specifically. Sean “Monty” Montgomery, a consulting nutritionist with Corn Belt Livestock Services, at Papillion, Nebraska, and a client began exploring the notion of corn by-products in high energy rations a decade ago when corn prices were at the upper end of obscene. Incidentally, Montgomery is also a KSU adjunct professor, who served on Spore’s advisory committee. Blasi was Spore’s major professor and also served

on Montgomery’s PhD committee. There were four treatments: 45, 50, 55 and 60 Mcals net energy for gain per 100 pounds of feed. Spore explains common receiving diets in the industry offer 48-52 Mcals of net energy for gain. The 45 Mcals treatment, fed ad libitum, provided the baseline to determine the amount of feed offered in the limit-fed diets. The three treatment groups were fed at decreasing levels

relative to the baseline, from 95 percent for the 50 Mcal group to 85 percent for the group receiving 60 Mcals. Compared to calves fed ad libitum with 45 Mcals net energy for gain, those fed with 60 Mcals were significantly more efficient during a 55-day feeding period, gaining 0.14 pounds per day more on 1.26 pounds less feed per pound of gain. Plus, Spore says, “Results from this trial indicate that limit-feeding and the

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increased energy in the limit-fed diets does not affect stress or immune function in healthy or sick animals when compared to lower-energy high-roughage diets fed for ad libitum intake.” Of course, no one is going to feed one group a high-roughage, low-energy diet in order to determine how much to feed another group receiving a high-energy diet. So, Spore explains the second trial was designed to see if feeding as a percentage of body weight would achieve similar results. Bottom line, Spore explains, “Limit-feeding a diet formulated to supply 60 Mcals net energy for gain at 2.2 percent of body weight in order to target similar average daily gain is a more efficient feeding strategy than offering a higher-roughage, low-

er-energy diet at 2.4 percent of body weight.” Based on his experience, Montgomery says calves likely will consume 1.0 percent to 1.1 percent for the first few days after arrival. But the fact is that calves are ingesting more nutrients quicker. “We struggle with intake on calves that are weaned on diesel smoke,” Montgomery explains. “You’re often trying to meet their nutrient requirements on half the intake when they first arrive. With limit feeding, we’re restricting intake, not nutrients.” Calves receiving limit-fed diets in these KSU trials were fed once each day. Blasi notes, “Results from these trials indicate it is important not to over-fill cattle too quickly and to keep

them hungry initially.” For reference, the 60 Mcals ration used here and in most of the studies that follow included, on a dry matter basis: 40.00 percent WCGF (Sweet Bran®; Cargill Corn Milling), 38.82 percent dry-rolled corn, 8.18 percent low energy supplement (10 percent CP), 6.50 percent alfalfa hay and 6.50 percent prairie hay. Next, Spore and the KSU crew looked at feeding the same 60 Mcal diet at increasing levels of controlled intake to target different levels of gain. Treatments consisted of the 60 Mcal diet offered at 1.9, 2.2, 2.5, or 2.8 percent of body weight on a dry matter basis daily. As expected, average daily gain increased with the overall increased

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Heretofore, most producers familiar with limit feeding likely came by their experience via supplemental feeding to navigate drought. “Limit feeding or program feeding refers to the practice of limiting calves to two-thirds to three-quarters of the dry matter that they can normally consume,” Blasi explains. “This feeding strategy varies greatly

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Fall 2018

energy intake as more feed was offered. Less anticipated, Spore says, is that there was no change in feed efficiency between treatment groups. That means achieving various levels of gain by adjusting the amount of feed using the same diet. “You don’t have to worry about giving up efficiency if you offer more feed,” Spore explains. “You can project how much you want them to gain and adjust how much you feed. We think 2.25 percent would work for most people.” Since some producers have limited, if any, practical access to WCGF, the final trial looked at how WDGS would work. There were four treatment groups—two receiving the ration with WCGF and two getting the ration with WDGS. For each by-product, half of the diets included wholeshelled corn; dry-rolled corn in the other half. All diets were formulated to provide 60 Mcal net energy for gain per 100 pounds of dry matter and contain 40 percent of their respective by-product. Each group was fed at 2.0 percent of body weight on a dry matter basis, once daily, targeting 2 pounds of average daily gain across 70 days. Spore notes this was a maintenance diet used to prepare calves for turnout on Flint Hills pasture. Bottom line, gain and efficiency of gain were similar across all groups. “When these diets are limit-fed, advantages in efficiency are evident,” Blasi says. “Moreover, feeding the highest energy ration in these trials formulated with dry-rolled or whole corn and Sweet Bran or wet distiller’s grains yielded similar performance. These results are beneficial to the growing cattle sector because gain may be targeted by feeding the same diet and only altering intake and, depending on producer location and commodity markets, the choice between by-products. Intake restriction increases digestibility and efficiency, which may contribute to less total manure production, thus a smaller impact on the environment and reduced costs of removal.”

07/12/2018 3:48:44 PM

KSU High Energy-Highly Fermentable Fiber Diet1, Limit Fed

Ingredient, % DM

Wet Distiller’s Grains

Alfalfa Prairie hay Dry rolled corn Wet distiller’s grains w/solubles Sweet Bran Supplement2

Sweet Bran®

8.00 6.50 8.00 6.50 36.50 39.50 40.00 – – 40.00 7.50 7.50

Diets formulated to supply 60 Mcal NEg/100 lb. DM Supplement pellet was formulated to contain (DM basis) 10 percent CP, 8.0 percent Ca, 0.24 percent P, 5.0 percent salt, 0.55 percent potassium, 0.25 percent magnesium, 1.67 percent fat, and 8.03 percent ADF. 1 2

for error that comes with manipulating transition diets. Plus, Montgomery says, “You’re getting more gain on less feed. That means hauling fewer loads. With one diet, you don’t have to haul partial loads.” Limit feeding makes it easier to identify sick calves, too. “In these trials, bunks were slick within two hours of feeding,” Spore says. “Cattle are hungry the next morning, so you know there’s a good chance cattle are sick if they aren’t waiting at the bunk.” “When an animal is not at the bunk to meet the feed wagon it is likely due to a health issue, and earlier detection is paramount when dealing with newly-weaned, stressed calves,” Blasi says.

with traditional management where calves generally have free-choice access to forage. Traditionally, limit-fed diets have consisted of 80-85 percent whole-shelled corn and the remaining balance as a protein supplement. The total amount of the ration delivered is increased every two weeks or so to account for increased body weight gain based upon the desired level of gain.” Limit feeding requires a higher level of management, of course. “For example, adequate bunk space and maintaining a regular feeding schedule are necessary,” Blasi says. “Cattle need to be fed the same amount at the same time every day in a pen situation where all calves have an equal chance to get to the bunk. Moreover, the producer must recalculate and adjust the ration DM allowed every couple of weeks to account for cattle growth. Therefore, it’s important to have accurate cattle weights before initiation of the feeding period (and during if possible) to ensure proper amounts of feed are being delivered.” Potential returns to the increased management are manifold. For one, Montgomery says, “With limit feeding, we’re training cattle to eat as a single group. It helps to decrease diet sorting.” When feed is always in front of cattle, he explains some will select different portions of the diet. Besides the wastage associated with ad libitum feeding, he explains diet sorting means different groups in the same pen are getting different diets. “With limit feeding, every bite they get is high calorie and consistent. When you limit feed and have a slick bunk, there’s no doubt that what you’re feeding is going into the cattle, including minerals and feed additives,” Blasi says. He adds that feeding a single diet minimizes the potential F&R Livestock Resource page 15

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Cattle Management Full circle: cattle ID and traceability By Wes Ishmael

Producers and animal health officials take another crack at a standardized national cattle ID system. Cattle identification is easy. Depending on the objective and need for permanence and convenience, apply a brand, tattoo or ear tag. Notch a brisket or ear. Slap on a back tag or run a paint stick across the hip. Though more labor intensive,

following the movement and management of individual cattle that are uniquely identified is just as straightforward, as long as it’s on the ranch or within a system of mutual agreement. Developing a national standardized system, though, one capable of tracing cattle back to current and previous locations of residence within 48 hours—for the purposes of animal disease tracking and management— has proven to be only slightly harder

than hobbling a tornado. The industry embarked on the journey almost two decades ago, working with state and federal governments as well as tribal nations. In fact, so many years and discussions passed, so many federal efforts shifted over time, that it’s easy to forget the mandatory foundation for such a system—the Animal Disease Traceability (ADT) program—became law in 2013. Unless otherwise exempted, ADT

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Fall 2018

requires livestock moved interstate to be be officially identified and accompanied by an interstate certificate of veterinary inspection (ICVI) or other documentation. For beef cattle, the rule only applies to those 18 months of age or older. So, feeder and fed cattle remain exempt. Some describe ADT as a bookend system, by which animal health officials can track animals forward from where they received the official identification tag and back from the animal’s last location. That’s less comprehensive than the birth-forward model originally crafted. Now, a growing segment of the industry appears willing to renew efforts to accomplish the task of implementing a more robust system, one more akin to what was envisioned originally. At least that was the sense coming away from the annual conference of the National Institute for Animal Agriculture (NIAA) in April, which focused on ID and traceability. Consider also last year’s formation of the Cattle Traceability Working Group (CTWG). It’s unaffiliated and not beholden to any organization, though it’s comprised of cattle producers and thought leaders that belong to many of the organizations that have been part of the ID discussion since the beginning. Consider, too, the federal government. USDA’s Animal Health Information Center published its assessment of ADT in April last year. In April this year, the State-Federal Animal Disease Traceability Working Group (ADTWG) released recommendations based on the assessment. “The gaps we talk about with some animals being untraceable, and the lack of traceability to birth herd are concerns for Congress,” explained Jack Shere at the NIAA session. He is USDA deputy administrator of veterinary services and chief veterinary officer. “Congress is very interested in our ADT program and where it’s going.

In order to consider where the industry may head with cattle ID and traceability, it pays to consider how it got to ADT and why it took so long.

Fewer cattle in the U.S. were being officially identified as part of federal disease and eradication programs, such as those for bovine brucellosis and tuberculosis, because of the success of those programs. to collect various data and software programs to sift the information. NIAA established the Food Animal Identification Task Force in April of 2002, according to Neil Hammerschmidt, former USDA traceability program manager, speaking at the recent NIAA conference. By that sumVarious factions on the Hill would like to see a mandatory program.” At the same meeting, Greg Ibach, USDA undersecretary of agriculture for marketing and regulatory programs, referenced principles in the current Farm Bill aimed at enhancing protection of the U.S. food supply. He emphasized that traceability is the critical component of identifying, tracking and managing animal disease, as well as mitigating the impacts of high-consequence diseases. All of that is before considering the feasibility study of U.S. beef cattle identification and traceability systems conducted by the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association last year; results were published at the beginning of this year. Such a system is part of that organization’s long-range plan. In order to consider where the industry may head with cattle ID and traceability, it pays to consider how it got to ADT and why it took so long.

ADT Roots Run Deep When industry-government discussions about developing a standardized animal identification and traceability system began in 2002, concerns about foreign animal diseases (FAD), such as foot-and-mouth disease and bovine spongiform encephalopathy, were front of mind, with Europe battling both. At the same time, fewer cattle in the U.S. were being officially identified as part of federal disease and eradication programs, such as those for bovine brucellosis and tuberculosis, because of the success of those programs. Keep in mind that beyond disease surveillance, industry discussions about the value of individual cattle management, made possible with individual identification and tracking, were just hitting their stride. A bevy of companies were introducing producers to electronic ear tags and readers

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mer, the task force developed a work plan, which it presented to the U.S. Animal Health Association (USAHA) several months later. USAHA is comprised of state animal health officials from across the U.S. That organization voted to unanimously accept the work plan as the basis for implementing a national program. By the spring of 2003, USDA formalized a national working group to flesh out the details, some 100 individuals representing about 70 organizations. Ultimately, the effort was known as the U.S. Animal Identification Plan (USAIP). Hammerschmidt points out USAIP development was well underway when the first case of BSE was confirmed in the U.S. in December 2003.

Enhancing Current ADT “While APHIS is confident that implementation of the basic Animal Disease Traceability (ADT) framework was successful, some of its parameters limit the progress of the program, and significant gaps still exist within current tracing capabilities,” according to Animal Disease Traceability, a summary of program reviews and proposed directions from the State-Federal Animal Disease Traceability Working Group (ADTWG). Among examples of the gaps: • Application of the official ID requirement only to livestock mov-

ing interstate creates significant confusion in marketing channels and enforcement challenges. • Use of visual-only, low cost ID ear tags presents obstacles for collecting animal ID efficiently and accurately. • The traceability regulations do not include feeder cattle, which APHIS views as an essential component of an effective traceability system in the long term. • Some federally approved slaughter plants could improve the collection of ID devices at slaughter and the correlation of the devices

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Fall 2018

By Wes Ishmael to the carcass through final inspection. Recommendations to ADT improvements are based on last year’s program assessment, as well as input from nine stakeholder meetings held across the country that sought input on traceability objectives and how to accomplish them. Keep in mind that ADT stems from an industry-government development process that began in 2002 (see “Full Circle”). Among 14 recommendations for proposed ADT direction: • Maintain current cattle population subject to ADT: all dairy, beef cattle older than 18 months of age and all rodeo and exhibition cattle. “The inclusion of beef feeder cattle in the traceability regulations is an essential component of an effective traceability system in the long term. However, addressing other fundamental gaps in the traceability framework must occur first.” • “Cattle should be identified to their birth premises; official ID records must provide birth premises information for the animal. APHIS should revise federal regulations to include interstate commerce, and the appropriate authority—either USDA or state officials— should establish regulations that trigger official ID requirements at: change of ownership, first point of commingling; interstate movement (may reflect no sale and no commingling).” • “The United States must move toward an EID system for cattle with a target implementation date of January 1, 2023. A comprehensive plan is necessary to address the multitude of very complex issues related to the implementation of a fully integrated electronic system.” www.APHIS.USDA.gov/Publications/Animal_Health/ADT-Summary-Program-Review.pdf

Soon after, when the U.S. Agriculture Secretary said USDA would expedite implementation of a national animal identification and traceability, such a reality seemed assured. That’s when things got complicated. There were legitimate concerns, such as the trade-offs between a mandatory or voluntary system; the associated producer costs and liabil-

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KANSAS LIVESTOCK ASSOCIATION

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Thursday, November 29

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ster o 6:00 a.m.-7:00 a.m. ~ Kansas Beef Endurance Team Run nline at 7:00 a.m.-8:00 p.m. ~ Trade Show Open 7:00 a.m.-8:30 a.m. ~ Coffee & Donuts 7:00 a.m.-8:30 a.m. ~ Early-Riser Breakfast 8:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m. ~ Committee Meetings: Natural Resources; Tax 10:00 a.m.-11:30 a.m. ~ Committee Meetings: Animal Health & ID; Consumer Trends 11:30 a.m.-1:30 p.m. ~ Trade Show Lunch 1:00 p.m.-2:30 p.m. ~ KLA Beef Industry University 2:30 p.m.-4:30 p.m. ~ Council Meetings: Stockgrowers; Cattle Feeders 4:30 p.m.-6:00 p.m. ~ Trade Show Reception 4:30 p.m.-8:00 p.m. ~ Cattlemen’s Crawl 6:00 p.m.-7:30 p.m. ~ Cattlemen’s Crawl Dinner 8:30 p.m.-10:30 p.m. ~ Cattlemen’s Barn Party with Lucas Maddy & the Kansas Cartel

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ities; who would hold the data and could have access; and whether any of it was practical at the speed of commerce. There were also lots of politics involved as some private companies and organizations lobbied to get their piece of the ID pie. In 2004, Hammerschmidt explains USDA accepted most of the USAIP recommendations and rebranded the effort as the National Animal Identification System (NAIS). That plan called for making premises registration mandatory by January of 2008; mandatory reporting of official movement a year later. By 2009, though, NAIS was struggling. Legitimate producer concerns continued. Official premises registration was plodding along. A new agriculture secretary established listening sessions across the nation, in order to define public and industry concerns. “He made it clear we weren’t going to walk away from traceability. We wanted to solve it,” Hammerschmidt says. Along with ongoing legitimate concerns, those listening sessions yielded plenty of fear mongering and conspiracy theories from a minority of producers and the public at large. The next year, NAIS was terminated, in favor of a new approach, which became the current ADT. “Even some of those who supported NAIS gave up on trying to follow what direction we were going with the program from one period of the year to another,” Hammerschmidt says. In the case of beef cattle, rather than aiming to identify all of them, Continued on page 24 ________________________________________

“I encourage us to continue building on the ADT framework,” —Hammerschmidt

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Cattle Industry Works Together on Traceability at NIAA Strategy Forum “The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and NIAA have often worked together on issues that impact the beef industry,” says Jennifer Houston, 2018 NCBA president-elect and opening speaker at the 2018 NIAA Strategy Forum on Livestock Traceability held earlier this fall in Kansas City, Mo. “We think it is important to reach out to other people in the industry,” she says. “Both organizations are contractors to the Beef Checkoff, so issues that are of interest to the industry, such as disease traceability and antimicrobial resistance, merit the support of associations such as ours.” From NCBA’s perspective, traceability is an important part of our future. “Of course, we already have the mandatory Animal Disease Traceability program, but the question is what else can traceability do for the industry, and what steps should we be taking next? “Traceability is an important issue that is already on the minds of many industry stakeholders, said Houston. “While opinions differ on what comes next, we can all agree that there are many unanswered questions and we need to begin putting the pieces together and identifying solutions that will work for all of us.” A study, conducted by World Perspectives, Inc., showed a number of questions remain in the minds of stakeholders, including important questions about data ownership and liability issues. “We have to find the answers to these questions,” she says. “Working together with NIAA and other groups to accomplish this makes sense.” The NIAA Strategy Forum featured a wide variety of speakers to address traceability from several different viewpoints, on different issues

and feature feedback from industry groups. One highlight is the report by the Cattle Traceability Working Group, which was developed from work done at the 2017 forum. “We just need to keep looking to the future on how we improve the disease traceability system that we have now, and how we continue to improve,” Houston said. Learn more at AnimalAgriculture.org.

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the focus shifted to a subset: the interstate movement of cattle 18 months of age and older. Rather than identify the birth premises, the new program opted for identification of where the animal was tagged with official identification. The minimum initial recommendation of electronic tags for official identification became low-cost, hard-to-read metal clip tags (brite tags) in ADT.

Building the Current System Forward “Given the framework we were given to work within, I believe the assessment document clearly demonstrates the ADT program was being implemented successfully,” Hammerschmidt says. “If an animal was officially identified, we could find out where that animal was tagged. If that animal moved interstate, we could at a high level retrieve the ICVI.” While the initial USAIP vision may have alienated or scared some— with a focus on electronically identifying all cattle leaving the farm—the compromises resulting in ADT left major gaps in achieving effective 48hour traceback. For one, ADT is not what many would consider a true bookend system, in that recording the animal’s place of birth is not required. For an-

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other, if and when the day comes that feeder cattle are included, few would argue there’s a way to make tracking practical with anything other than electronic identification. For the record, the ADTWG recommendations recognize the need to include cattle younger than 18 months of age, but also emphasized the need to address the unique needs separately. So, in some ways, the industry finds itself back where it began with ID and traceability: no standardized national system capable of 48-hour traceback to the birth premises and many of the original concerns still in search of consensus. The stark difference almost 20 years down the road is that the circle became a spiral. The industry is embarking on this next phase at a higher, more advanced level, thanks to the immeasurable efforts of so many. “I encourage us to continue building on the ADT framework,” says Hammerschmidt, who also served as one of 18 members of the ADTWG. “Let’s keep going the same direction, fix current traceability gaps that have been identified, address major concerns and make sure that we work with a solution that works at the speed of commerce.” Reprinted with permission, BEEF magazine.

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Fall 2018

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The World According to Hooter McCormick Lookin’ for Mojo Editor’s Note: Hooter’s ability to entertain and remind us not to take ourselves so seriously has been a welcome respite for decades. Welcome to the latest episode of Hooter McCormick’s misadventures. In its day, the extended cab GMC was surely something to behold: twotone black over silver; dripping with chrome; all-leather interior, every button and bell possible in 1992.

Now, it looked like something from the front lines. The mangled front bumper dangled by a rusty web of baling wire. The rear bumper was missing. The body was so dimpled by a decade of hailstorms that Hooter doubted you could find a flat spot. The only thing new looking was a white bumper sticker pasted in the middle of the banged-up tailgate: “Will Rope for BEER.” Someone had crossed out the last word and added:

“ANYTHING.” If Hooter had any doubts, the bumper sticker told him this had to be Slick Randolph’s rig. Back in the day, Hooter had seen Slick at least once a week, all across the Southwest. Hooter was contracting some stock then, getting his rope wet for the sheer joy of it, while Slick was on the verge of being team roping’s next big thing. He could head or heel with equal speed and accuracy. The horse

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page 26

Fall 2018

or the stock never seemed to matter much; Slick could always find his mark fast enough that if his partners were even average, they’d be in the money. What added to Slick’s growing legend was that he never seemed to take any of it too seriously. At the big shows, when others were finding their stock and comparing notes, Slick was in the stands playing pitch. As others surveyed arena conditions, accounted for the weather and selected from a storehouse of ropes, Slick just grabbed whatever was handy. The results were always the same. Then came the often-chronicled string of 10 shows in 1993, where Slick missed everything he aimed at; never came close. Then, he disappeared. Rumors cropped up every now and then that he was seen at this arena or that one, either back up to his old wizardry, or used up and haunted. They were just rumors, though, until now.

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Hooter was harder to shock than a retired school teacher, but he was plumb amazed when he found Slick out behind the dusty pens, even scrawnier than he used to be, the week’s worth of stubble on his face a noticeable shade grayer. Sweat poured off Slick as he swung a tight, flat loop, with too much speed and too little spoke, desperately trying to catch the roping dummy about six feet in front of him. One try after another either bounced silently off the hay bale or died quietly on the ground. About every fifth try the loop bounced in a knot off the plastic horns with an empty clacking sound. Hooter didn’t know whether to slink away or come striding in like he’d just shown up. “Howdy Slick,” Hooter shouted, stepping from the shadows, hand out with big grin. No response. “Heya Slick,” Hooter tried again. Still nothing. Slick was like a malfunctioning machine set on automatic, going through endless motions of repeating the same mistakes; no thinking, no feeling. Hooter waited for Slick to throw one more tired, inept loop, ducked in, got him in a playful headlock and

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shouted, “Well, Slick, you old dog, it would seem rumors of your death have been greatly exaggerated.” Slick sputtered and struggled away like a cat showered with cold water. He stared back at Hooter for day-long seconds before a glimmer started to flicker in his eyes. “I’ll be jiggered,” Slick, finally managed. He wrapped Hooter up in a bear hug and lifted him off the ground. “What’s it been, six or seven months? Man, where you been hiding? What’re you doin’ here?” Six or seven months? Hooter was wondering how he ought to play it. “Me? Pal of mine was wondering about buying this place, wanted me to look it over. Whatch’a been up to, Slick?” He noticed both of Slick’s thumbs were gone; judging by the scars, they hitched a ride on his dally years before. “Same ol’, same ol’,” grinned Slick, weighing the rope in his hand. “I don’t know if you heard or not, but a few weeks back I hit the mother of all slumps, just trying to do a little fine-tuning on the down-low.” Then he winked big. “Yeah, Slick, I heard about your run of bad luck, what do you reckon caused it?” “No telling,” said Slick with a hearty sigh. “It don’t matter, though. Even Babe Ruth had an off day. I’ll be back on track in no time.” No time is right, thought Hooter. Slick looked around to make sure Hooter and he were the only ones at the abandoned arena. “Actually,

Hooter, I am a little bit worried . I think I lost it.” “It?” wondered Hooter. “You’ll think it’s silly,” said Slick, turning back toward the dummy. “Ain’t nothing silly, Slick, just un-discussed.” Slick glanced over his shoulder again. “It. My mojo. I don’t know if you ever knew it or not but that wife you had gave it to me.” Hooter was struggling to remember. It was more than likely his used-to-be wife, Sherry, would have concocted some sort of potion or charm for Slick, but he had no idea what she would have given him that was now missing. “When did she give it to?” Hooter wondered, stalling for more time.

Deciding to Believe “I remember exactly. It was at the show in Las Cruces, not long after I met you. Man, after that, I was in a zone.” “You sure it was this mojo. What I mean, you were roping pretty good when I first ran into you.” “Pretty good, but never like after,” said Slick. “Besides, it was the first mojo that got me to roping as good as I was then.” Hooter leaned against a rickety post. “Well sir, I’m stumped. First you tell me the reason you can’t hit the side of a barn with a tractor in low gear is because you lost your mojo. Then you tell me you had a mojo before the one you lost.” Slick eyed a point in the past. “It was when I was in junior high. I want-

ed to rope steers worse than anything in the world. I went to a couple of schools, tagged along with my uncle all the time. He said I was a natural, but I couldn’t catch anything. One day we was at a show in Louisiana. I missed, as usual. That night, Uncle Willy took me to see an old voodoo woman. She laid a smooshed copper penny in my hand and asked me if I believed I could catch more than the common cold. I said I could, I just needed some luck. She said, ‘This mojo here has done give it to you.’ And, it did. When I found out Sherry was from Louisiana, I told her the story, and that it worked, but I was needing to get faster. The next time I saw her she put this red polished rock in my hand, called it a mercury rock. Asked me if I thought I could catch faster than I ever had in my life. I said, yeah, with some extra luck. She said that mercury rock gave it to me. And, she was right.” Slick coiled up his rope and answered the question he knew was coming next. “I lost ’em. I lost both of ’em. Don’t know where or when. I just know I haven’t caught much since.” Hooter had an idea. “Wait right here and don’t worry.” He came back carrying an empty leather pouch. “Sherry told me to give this to you when I saw you next—not the bag, but what’s inside.” Slick looked like a kid wishing for Santa Claus, wanting to believe but afraid to. “She told me that mercury rock was like magic with training wheels,

that she had to start you out on that, but by the time I saw you again, you’d be ready for this.” He opened up the bag. Slick peered in. “I don’t see anything.” Hooter grinned. “Put your roping hand inside and close your eyes.” Slick began frantically searching every nook and cranny of the bag, desperate for an answer. “Keep those eyes closed,” said Hooter. “Can you feel that?” Slick didn’t say anything. He wanted to feel something, anything, but couldn’t. “Think hard,” said Hooter. “At first you’d swear there wasn’t anything, but it’s just light and fast. Sherry says it’s the mist from a hummingbird’s wings, mixed in with cheetah vapors. She said this stuff makes you even faster than you were before, and it’s permanent.” “Really?!” Slick yelped. “Judging by my watch, you’re just about done. Now, squeeze your fist tight to seal it, take your hand out and make sure your rope is the first thing you touch.” Slick did as he was told. Tentatively at first, he built an easy loop with lots of body. Effortlessly, he danced the loop over the horns of the dummy, then jerked his slack with such ferocity he jerked the bale over backwards. “Seems like just yesterday, doesn’t it?” said Hooter. “Nope,” said Slick with a million-watt smile. “Seems just like tomorrow.”

K-State Ranching Summit Provides Future Insight Brief Conference focuses on bolstering managerial skills related to technology, transparency and profitability. More than 150 producers, students and industry professionals gathered in Manhattan for the 2018 K-State Ranching Summit August 15. Designed to equip managers with the skills to address the challenges of ranching in the business climate of today and tomorrow, the theme of this year’s program was Beef 2030 – Pursuing technology, transparency and profitability. “It was a great conference,” said Vernon Suhn, GeneTrust managing partner, Eureka, Kansas. “The conference opened my eyes that the commercial beef industry is lagging behind in utilizing the technology available. We need to take advantage of tools available in all aspects of page 28

Fall 2018

genetics and production to make improvements in order to keep the beef industry viable as we continue the production of protein.” Mark Gardiner, Gardiner Angus Ranch, Ashland, Kansas, kicked off the morning session with a discussion on pursuing, adopting and leveraging technology in a seedstock operation. Issues covered included maintaining profitability through weather, markets and the ongoing challenges for beef producers. Tyson Johnson with Sooner Cattle Co., Pawhuska, Oklahoma, reviewed key managerial accounting numbers for ranch managers. Don Close, Rabo AgriFinance, St. Louis, Missouri, addressed their research in beef and protein market

consumer trends and what potential impact these trends will have on beef producers. Matt Perrier, Dalebanks Angus, Eureka, Kansas, ended the morning program with his response to the morning session followed by questions and answers. “Turn data into information, and information into decision-making tools,” Perrier remarked. He added that transparency has value, and consumers want that transparency with their steak. “This is business; it is more than just cattle, or profits or loss. It is a people business.” Tom Field, director of the Engler Agribusiness Entrepreneurship Program at the University of Nebraska, started off the afternoon session

covering disruptive technologies in the beef industry. K-State ASI faculty Dr. Megan Rolf, discussed the potential for the disruptive genomics/ genetics technologies. K-State ASI extension faculty Dr. Luis Mendonca, provided an overview of the power of big data he’s captured through the collaborative benchmarking system he’s helped develop called DRINK. John Butler, Innovative Livestock Services, Great Bend, Kansas, then shared his vision of the beef industry in 2030. The event closed out with Dale Blasi, Kansas State University extension specialist, Manhattan, Kansas, sharing his response to the afternoon program followed by questions and answers.

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“The KSU Ranching Summit was a great blend of producer-driven information and upcoming university research,” said Barrett Simon, a Summit attendee and Post Rock District livestock agent. “At the end of the day, it’s all about boosting profits in the beef business. Without a secure bottom line, producers cannot build a sustainable program. We heard from industry leading producers on how to capture value

as well as monitor inputs to boost profit. Personally, I felt that the discussion between the speakers and producers in the question and answer segment will greatly lend to progression of the beef industry in Kansas.” Videos of the presentations and PDF proceedings are available on the KSUBeef.org website and the KSU Beef YouTube Channel— bit.ly/KSURanchingSummit.

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Fall 2018

Continued from page 3 _____________________________________

accept the reality. They are mostly confused about beef quality. They are curious about livestock production but want assurances that producers genuinely are respectful of the animals in their care. They are completely unaware of the width and breadth of food animal production. They are misinformed and confused about ideological markets such as organic or grass fed and the impact on quality. The good news is, regardless of their unanswered questions or concerns, they love beef and prove it every day with their pocket books. I benefit greatly from long

conversations with friends and am so grateful for their interest in beef production. But, these conversations are such eye-openers and remind me of how far we have to go to communicate a simple, coherent, transparent message. We owe gratitude to those at a grassroots level making a difference by using social media to communicate a positive message. Their willingness to engage a broad audience with humor, factual information and patience is admirable. The livestock industry is as diverse as our customers. Our shared interest is quality beef.

Certainty. W T

e’d all like a little certainty in uncertain times; to know what’s going to happen so we can plan for the future.

hese are certainly uncertain times. Parts of the country experienced record drought this year while other areas looked like a garden spot. And the heat! We went from an unusually cold spring straight into record temps that held all summer long. Late summer saw flooding in some areas while just a few miles away, ponds remained dry. Now throw in markets and you have all sorts of uncertainty.

ow do you position your cowherd when uncertainty is the name of the game? An efficient cow is your FOUNDATION for greater certainty. Virtually any cow can produce when times are good, but when the sands are shifting, the wrong cowherd can take you from bad to DISASTER.

he traits we have always focused on help you to survive and thrive no matter what Mother Nature throws at you. Reproductive efficiency is number one. Our cows have always been expected to get a live calf on the ground, get bred back, and bring a healthy calf into the weaning pen. She must do that all on range, with a minimum input of time, money, and feed. And then she must do that year after year after year. Finally, those calves must go onto the feedyard, perform well, and hang the kind of carcass that brings you a PREMIUM. That kind of program takes YEARS to develop, and discipline to continually maintain and improve.

hat will next year bring? Who knows! But with the thoughtful, deliberate, PROVEN genetics of Kniebel Cattle Co. and Downey Ranch behind you, you can be CERTAIN you’re in the best shape possible, no matter what Mother Nature throws your way.

Selling 175 head!

Friday, Nov. 2, 2018 @ 12:30pm CDT 12 mi. SE of Manhattan, KS

 105 COMING 2 YEAR OLD Red & Black Angus bulls performance tested, ultrasounded, with genomically enhanced EPDs o 55 1A Red Angus - from Kniebel Cattle Co. with sons of

Merlin 937Z, 5L Defender, Salute, Heritage, Pursuit, Pinnacle, Hard Drive, Marblin’ Man, and more!

o 50 Black Angus - from Downey Ranch with sons of Acclaim, Capitalist, Super Bowl, Substantial, Comrade, Remedy, Guiness and more!

o Bull wintering available - turn out a 2-year-old come spring!

 60 commercial bred heifers to calve Spring 2019 from the heart of our herds! o 30 AN & Black Baldies - from Downey Ranch

o 30 RA, RA x AN and Baldies - from Kniebel Cattle Co.

o Available with Calve-Out and our exclusive Live Calf Guarantee

Open House Thursday evening @ DRI: 3pm-dark: Sale cattle viewing. The cattle will be in large pens and free to move as you please. 5:30pm-7pm: Sandwiches & drinks available Come at your convenience - no RSVP required!

Come and experience for yourself the kind of certainty that keeps our customers coming back year after year!

DOWNEY RANCH, Inc. Kniebel Cattle Co.

Kevin & Mary Ann Kniebel Chuck & Kim Kniebel

White City, KS

(785) 349-2821 www.KCattle.com

Joe Carpenter & Barb Downey Spencer Jones

Wamego, KS

(785) 456-8160 www.DowneyRanch.com

Steady as She Goes Fall calf and feeder prices appear similar to last year. By Wes Ishmael

Despite plentiful supplies of cattle, beef and competing proteins, demand means there’s no reason to expect cattle markets to fall apart or to climb against seasonal trends. “This calendar year, calf and yearling prices are projected to be similar to 2016’s and 2017’s. In the fourth quarter of this year, calf prices may average slightly below 2017’s, but substantially above 2016’s,” explained analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information

Center (LMIC), in an early-August Livestock Monitor. With that said, stocker demand will be the key to fall calf price levels, according to Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his mid-August weekly market comments. He explained forage conditions will determine the degree to which stockers can demand calves, while economic conditions will dictate their willingness to do so.

Based on Peel’s calculations in Oklahoma at the time, stocker value of gain forecasts were favorable. For example, $1.19/lb. for 309 lbs. of gain on a mid 4-weight steer purchased for $171.59/ cwt. and sold for $150.65. “Value of gain for added feeder cattle weight is largely a reflection of feedlot demand for feeder cattle of various weights,” Peel says. “A value of gain at this level indicates relatively less feedlot demand for lightweight feeders and is

Fall Performance Herd of the Heartland Sale Friday, oct. 26

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Offering • 150+ Registered 18-24 month Black Angus Bulls • 20 Registered 18-24 month Red Angus Bulls • 250 Fall Calving Commercial Heifers • 25 Fall Calving Commercial Running Age Cows

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• 80 Early Spring Calving Commercial Heifers • 75 Head of Black Angus Virgin Replacement Heifers

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page 32

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Fall 2018

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spurranch.com Ranch Manager Jeff Owen 918-244-2118 Owner Clay Hartley 918-633-2580 Ranch Office 918-256-9910

an economic signal for increased stocker production. If feeder cattle prices maintain a similar price relationship into the fall and forage conditions are good, fall feeder markets may follow seasonal price patterns rather closely.” Likewise, in mid-August, Glynn Tonsor, agricultural economist at Kansas State University projected value of gain of $1.09: a 550 lb. steer purchased at Salina the middle of October for $170, then sold 200 lbs. heavier in the middle of April for $154. He emphasizes that drought will determine the feasibility. Although some hard-hit drought areas of the Central and Southern Plains received welcome August rains, dry conditions put wheels beneath some calves earlier than normal, judging by the August Cattle on Feed report. Placements in July, in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity were 1.74 million head, which was 7.86 percent more than the previous year. That was about 2 percent more than popular expectations. All indications are that more cattle will be available through the fall this year than last. For instance, Peel points to the mid-year cattle report indicating a calf crop this year nearly 2 percent more than in 2017 and estimated feeder supplies 0.5 percent larger. That’s why the importance of price-supporting stocker demand will be magnified this year. For price perspective, the August “Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook” (LDPO) forecasts feeder steer prices at $147-$151/cwt. in the third quarter and at $143-$151 in the fourth. Then, the cattle cycle should become more supportive. “If the general trends of the first half of 2018 persist, as of Jan. 1, 2019, the U.S. cow herd likely will be up well less than 1.0 percent year over year,” say LMIC analysts. “That suggests cyclically stronger calf prices are ahead (e.g., calf prices in the fall of 2020). Pre-planning may position a cattle operation to take advantage of this market transition.” Likewise, Josh Maples, extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University, explained in a late-August issue of “In the Cattle Markets,” “Looking beyond 2018, slower herd growth numbers begin to paint a brighter price picture for 2019 and 2020. If the strong domestic economy maintains

or grows and exports continue to gain steam (more later), it is not difficult to project higher prices in the fall of 2019 compared to fall 2018.” In the meantime, there’s enough cattle and beef to keep a lid on prices.

Beef Production Forecast a Touch Lower Maples explains beef production increased 6.4 percent in 2016 and 3.8 percent last year. “Current forecasts suggest about a 4 percent increase in 2018, and 1.5 percent in 2019,” Maples says. “Put it all together and that would be about a 16 percent increase in beef production in just four years. This would be the fastest four-year growth since 1973-1977. The increases are slowing, though. All signs are pointing to slower herd expansion in 2018 and 2019. With respect to the cattle cycle, recent cow herd trends suggest 2020 could potentially mark the end of the current U.S. cattle inventory build-up. It is important to note that this would not be the end of a cycle, just the increasing segment of the cycle.” Beef production for this year was reduced 56 million lbs. from the previous month’s forecast to 27.09 billion lbs. in the August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). But, total red meat and poultry production for this year was raised 27 million lbs. to 103.12 billion lbs. based on increased broiler production. “The decline in beef production largely reflects a slower pace of marketings in the third quarter,” said analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS). “Cow slaughter was raised, but recent carcass weight data and a larger proportion of cows in the slaughter mix led to a reduction in expected carcass weights during the second half of the year.” WASDE projects fed steer prices (5area direct) for third-quarter at $107$111/cwt. Estimates for the fourth quarter are $109-$115; $116-$126 for the first quarter next year. Projected feedlot returns continue on the negative side (cash to cash basis) through the rest of the year, but are significantly more robust than expectations just a few months ago, according to the August Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns from Kansas State University. For instance, projected steer closeouts increase from an estimated -$109.31 per head in July with an estimated Feedlot Cost of Gain (FCOG) of $82.95/cwt. to -$10.31 in December ($83.94 FCOG). Likewise, projected heifer closeouts increase from an estimated -$79.18 in July ($88.80 FCOG) to -$11.75 in December ($90.46 FCOG).

All indications are that more cattle will be available through the fall this year than last. “Returns for August-October improved from last month, mainly reflecting increased fed cattle price expectations,” Tonsor says.

Demand Saving the Day “The strength in the cattle market is largely due to strong beef demand. If it were not for strong beef demand, prices of most classes of cattle would be moving lower and at a fairly quick clip,” explained Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University

of Tennessee, in his late-August market comments. “The classes of cattle with the most downside risk at this point in the year are freshly weaned calves and

slaughter cows. As marketings of these two classes of cattle begin to increase through September and then peak in October and November, prices will

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most likely decline due to calf supply and forage availability.” While that’s no guarantee, Griffith explains, the probability of prices declining is much higher than prices increasing. Domestically, Tonsor points out the all-fresh Beef Demand Index in the second quarter was 0.4 percent more than the same quarter a year earlier. Internationally, U.S. beef exports continue at a record pace, according to the latest data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. June beef exports of 115,718 metric tons (mt), including variety meats, were 6 percent more than the previous year. The value of June beef exports was 19

percent more year over year at $722.1 million, just slightly less than the new record set the previous month. Beef exports for the first half of this year are also record large in both volume and value. Export volume for the first two quarters was 9 percent more than the same period last year at 662,875 mt. Export value was up 21 percent at just over $4 billion. In previous years, export value never topped the $4 billion mark before August. Beef export value averaged $313.56 per head of fed slaughter in June, up 19 percent from a year ago. The first-half average was $316.94 per head, up 18 percent. Moreover, the August trade pact between the U.S. and Mexico removes

some of the recent uncertainty from the equation. “After a year of tough negotiations, the United States and Mexico reached a trade agreement that is fair and reciprocal and will strengthen both nations’ economies,” said U.S. vice president Mike Pence toward the end of August. “The U.S.–Mexico Trade Agreement is a win for American ranchers, manufacturers, and auto workers. Our nations have agreed to new rules that will maintain duty free access for agricultural goods on both sides of the border. In addition, we have agreed to eliminate non-tariff barriers and take other steps to encourage more agriculture trade between our two countries…” As of the first week of September,

trade negotiations continued with Canada. Progress of trade talks with China remained anyone’s guess, although African Swine Fever (AFS) confirmed there in August could tip their hand toward more pork imports. Through the third week of August, Chinese authorities culled more than 24,000 pigs in four provinces, in efforts to control the spread of AFS, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. That organization warned that the rapid onset of the virus in China, and its detection in areas more than 1,000 kilometers apart could mean AFS may spread to other Asian countries anytime. There is no effective vaccine to protect swine from the disease. And, while the disease poses no direct threat to human health, outbreaks can be devastating with the most virulent forms lethal in 100 percent of infected animals. China accounts for approximately half the global population of swine, estimated at 500 million.

Except for Hay, Feed Costs Look Positive “The strength in prices (feeder) may be supported by moderate feed costs and the prospect of higher fed cattle prices in 2019,” said ERS analysts, in the August LDPO. The August WASDE forecast corn production at 14.6 billion bu., down less than 1 percent from last year, with a projected record yield of 178.4 bu./ acre. The season-average corn price received by producers was forecast at $3.10 to $4.10/bu. Similarly, soybean supplies are projected record large at 5.04 billion bu. (production of 4.59 billion bu.). The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2018-19 was forecast at $8.90/bu. at the midpoint. Soybean meal price was projected at $295 to $335 per short ton. The soybean oil price forecast is 28.0¢ to 32.0¢/lb. Hay is where things get iffy. Although the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates alfalfa production 5 percent more this year than last, production of other hay is expected to be 7 percent less than last year, according to LMIC in late August. “The lower other hay output is attributable to the Southern Plains, especially Texas, due to drought,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “Though recent precipitation in the Southern Plains and elsewhere may boost hay production compared to the latest NASS estimate, the amount of all hay may be only slightly above 2017’s. Importantly, the 2017 national hay crop was the smallest since the devastating drought of 2012.”

page 34

Fall 2018

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