Some European stone fruit forecasts should be “taken with a pinch of salt”

More than ever, the forecasts made by Europêch for this campaign are pending a future review that will take place in mid-June

The reasons behind this situation are the weather conditions in the main production areas: in Italy due to the incredible floods in the Emilia Romagna region, and in Spain due to the water restrictions in Catalonia and Aragon, regions that produce over 80% of the stone fruit volume.

All the analysts agree, however, that the official forecasts made on the 23rd of May will be severely cut short when the damages in the Italian productions have been quantified and the results of the reductions in the water quotas in the Spanish regions are accounted for.

A figure that will be seriously reduced

With the collaboration of ASEPOP (Greece), Agrifood Cooperatives and Afrucat (Spain), CSO (Italy) and AOP Pêches et Abricots (France), at the 2023 Europêch forum, a peach, nectarine, flat peach and clingstone peach harvest of 3,379,000 tonnes has been announced for this year in Europe. A figure that means a 14% rise compared to the 2022 production.

However, this figure must be taken as a first estimate as on the same day as the forecasts were made public weather phenomena were causing a strong impact on the trees.

On both sides of the Pyrenees, in the Roussillon region (France), in Catalonia and Aragon (Spain), the drought has been wreaking havoc for over a year now. The reservoirs are at minimums, restrictions have been imposed on water usage and, in Catalonia, the irrigation channels have been shut off. Additionally, everything is pointing towards there being new restrictions brought in over the next few weeks with repercussions on the production in this campaign and possibly, on future campaigns as the situation is so dire that the death of the trees is more than likely.

In northern Italy, in Emilia Romagna, the floods have submerged the crop lands. Although the weather episode has come to an end (as of the 23rd of May), the damages are so important that the authorities will need time to evaluate them.

Two years of weather incidences

Last year, the campaign was marked by an important shortage in the harvest in Catalonia and Aragon due to the spring frosts, while the other European production basins escaped this and produced a normal amount.

Spain

After the 2022 campaign, which was very short production-wise due to the frosts in Catalonia and Aragon at the beginning of April, a priori, the 2023 season looked very promising. However, although there was no hail or rainfall, the stubborn drought has overcome these important producing regions. Paradoxically, the more southern Spanish regions are the ones less affected and it seems that they could save the campaign; but in the north, in Aragon and Catalonia, the irrigation restrictions are already having a serious impact both on the calibre of the productions and on the feasibility of the trees surviving the summer.

From the first days of May, the Urgell canal, which supplies the production area to the north of Lerida, mainly aimed at pip fruit, has been shut off and other canals are being threatened with restrictions and even with being closed.

In May, Spain has a production potential for peaches, flat peaches and nectarines of 1,250,000 tonnes, which means a 52% increase compared to 2022 and 8% compared to the 2017/2021 average.

In peaches, the production potential is estimated at 292,000 tonnes, 41% higher than last year and 6% lower than the 2017/2021 average.

Regarding the production trends, at the Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de España, the Head of Fruit, Javier Basol, confirms that “the trend is to increase yields and qualities in all the periods and families of stone fruit.”

In recent years, there have not been any significant increases or reductions in the number of operators or in the cultivated surface areas, although some plantations are beginning to be replaced by other fruit species or by the entry of investment groups in the arboriculture sector.

Climate change is the most important challenge being faced by the sector, which, without any doubt, is making it difficult for the varieties to have the hours of cold that they need. “The aim is to introduce varieties adapted to the market demands, but also to the new weather conditions,” Basol explains.

In terms of the market, stone fruit is subjected, as occurring in many other sectors, to an important increase in legislation and demands of all kinds (environmental, social, health, packaging, etc.), which have a direct repercussion on increases in production costs but that “are not passed on in the sale prices, with the subsequent deterioration of the sector’s economy.”

In mid-May, the forecasts for Spain are for a “normal” harvest, similar to the one in 2019, after 3 years’ running of shortages. By groups, a 50% increase in the production of peaches (including flat peaches, nectarines and clingstone peaches) is expected compared to the last campaign (the lowest figure recorded over the past 10 years), reaching 1,548,683 t, a production of 15.5% above the average of the last 5 years (2018-2022) or 5% above the average of 2017/2021. And in the case of apricots, the harvest has recovered after seeing drops over several years, reaching 96,123t, 8.3% below the five year average (2018-2022) or 18% below the 2017-2021 average, but 45% above the last campaign.

“The lack of rainfall and the decrease in irrigation allocations will affect the amount and the quality of the fruit (smaller calibres) and this will cut short the length of the campaign,” Basol advances.

Italy

After a very poor campaign in 2021, marked by frosts, 2022 showed a normal production potential, close to optimum, with just over a million tonnes of peaches, nectarines and clingstone peaches.

This year, the frosts in April have affected some of the farms in the northern regions, but it was the intensive rainfall that has caused havoc, particularly in the Emilia Romagna region. Many plantations have been flooded and this situation is forecasted to continue for several weeks.

Therefore, with 869,000 t of peaches and nectarines, the Italian production potential is 8% lower than the 2022 production and 12% lower than the 2017/2021 average. With almost 64,000 t of peaches, the production potential is 10% lower than last year and 11% lower than the 2017/2021 average.

From the Ferrara CSO, its Manager Elisa Macchi, comments that “the forecasts presented in these tables will be updated, as they have not been evaluated yet due to the ongoing emergency.” Having said this, analysing the evolution of the Italian harvest, before the 17th-18th of May, Macchi explains that the peach and nectarine production has once again been affected by bad weather conditions. “In April, the return of the cold weather affected northern Italy with varying intensity, limiting the yields. Even in recent weeks, the weather has become inclement again, with temperatures below normal and abundant rainfall in several regions. There have also been some hail storms from north to south.”

Taking all these aspects into account, the Italian offer of peaches in 2023 has been estimated at 422,000 tonnes (–4% compared to 2022); just under 64,000 tonnes of clingstone peaches (–10% compared to 2022) and just over 446,000 tonnes of nectarines (–12% compared to last year). “The drop is due to the northern regions and it will only be partially compensated by the growth of volumes collected in the southern part of the country, which is now experiencing an almost normal situation,” the Manager of the CSO advances.

From the CSO they also advance that, in comparison with last year, “a delay in ripening of approximately one week is being observed in the southern regions of Italy, while the northern regions are closer to last year’s dates.”

Europa

Previsiones Melocotón - NectarinaPavía 2023 (Unidad: toneladas)

*Hasta la fecha, solo España identifica los paraguayos por separado. Para los demás países los volúmenes son muy pequeños y están integrados en las cifras de “melocotón”.

ESPAÑA

Previsiones Melocotón - NectarinaPavía 2023 (Unidad: toneladas)

*Hasta la fecha, solo España identifica los paraguayos por separado. Para los demás países los volúmenes son muy pequeños y están integrados en las cifras de “melocotón”.