February 2010 Update The Summary
Retail Administrations include Diamonds & Pearls (again, pre-pack), Designer Room, Ethel Austin and sister Au Naturale and the Fads, Textyle World and Leveys brands, owned by Divalimit. New retailers are Koodza, By Malene Birger, Pennyblack, Sofaitalia, Fragrance House from Scotmid, Hed Kandi, Barbacoa from Jamie’s Italian and a spate of new rumours about Dutch sportswear retailer McGregor. Birth and Death of Retailers 15
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Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10
In Administration
New Retailers
In the news… There have been some high profile casualties this month, but aside from the aforementioned administrations, we also note; Ascension have suspended shares after failing to secure funding; Internacionale has made redundancies at its head office; La Senza have been forced to seek funding; the sale of Matalan has been halted after bidders baulked at the high price tag; and New Look have pulled the IPO process, citing an ‘unfavourable market backdrop’! In other news, Ollie & Nic, One Stop, 99p Store and Cote have all announced expansion plans; Boots and Mothercare are to trial a partnership; Halfords has acquired Nationwide Autocentres – not Hobbycraft or Blacks Leisure as rumoured; Argos has refreshed its brand for the first time in years; and John Lovering is thought to be putting together a bid for sofa retailer DFS. In the Statistics section, most measures look encouraging, with YoY increases of 3.1% for ONS, 1.2% for BRC and 1.2% for the Nationwide House Price Index. The Consumer Confidence Index is also up, 2 points on last month, though Ireland continues to suffer, with CSO reporting the value of retail sales 12.4% lower YOY. Finally, Tesco has had a rough time of it with the press this month, as it seems not only do they take offence at pyjama-clad shoppers and shoulder-mounted children, but that they also take the ‘Think 25?’ initiative quite seriously, this month reportedly ID’ing a 24 year old buying a slice of quiche!
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Geoff’s View
Locking the Stable Door The proportion of UK multiple retailers trading unsustainably has increased from around 23% last year to 28% this year. Furthermore, the location of the stores of “at risk” retailers, and the reasons for their financial stress, are now different. Retailers are categorised as “at risk” if the ratio of gross profit on sales to the cost of labour and depreciation is below parity. Last year, a disproportionate number of shops of “at risk” retailers were in medium to large industrial towns, mainly in the north of England. The stores belonged principally to traditional retailers, such as Woolworths, whose store locations had been determined by historic shopping patterns. Many of these stores have, as anticipated, now closed and the towns are experiencing high rates of vacancy. This has attracted much attention, not least from BCSC, but in truth, the horse has bolted. These towns need to develop a new, viable retail strategy built around their surviving retailers. Amongst these retailers, the proportion now “at risk” is lower than the national average. There is, after all, still a role for these towns within the retail hierarchy. Currently, the proportion of “at risk” stores is higher than the national average in some prime retail locations scattered right across the UK. The likely explanation is that less experienced retailers have taken on inappropriate stores in otherwise sound retail locations. Identifying such traders and developing contingency plans is a significant asset management task. With credit difficult to secure, and banks looking to reduce outstanding loans, retailers that have expanded aggressively from an unsound base or taken on high levels of debt are amongst those most at risk. Given the continuing high proportion of “at risk” retailers, FSP anticipates that retailer failures will continue in smaller numbers throughout the year. However, the profile may change with a lower proportion of “traditional” retailers and more that are over-extended or debt-driven. As always, forewarned is forearmed. With kind regards
Geoff Nicholson Managing Director, FSP geoff@fspretail.co.uk
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New Retailers By Malene Birger
is preparing to make its first foray into the UK retail market, taking a 1,345sq ft store at 28-29 Marylebone High Street
Hed Kandi
is planning to break into high street retailing with plans to open two stores this year
Jamie's Italian
is to launch a new barbecue-based restaurant concept under the Barbacoa brand, with the first outlet due to open near St Paul's in London
Koodza
is to make its UK debut this spring
Loft Design by‌
has secured its second UK boutique at 36 Marylebone High Street, W1
Love Coffee
BB's Coffee & Muffins franchisee Shashi Patel has taken over the 13 BB's Coffee stores he operated and has rebranded them "Love Coffee"
Pennyblack
is understood to be searching for its first UK flagship store
Sofaitalia
is planning to open up to 15 furniture stores across the country over the next five years, having just opened the first 10,000 sq ft unit in Stockton
Store News 99p Store
plans to open 80 new stores this year
American Apparel
has signed for its ninth store in the UK
Argos
has refreshed the brand to coincide with the launch of its latest catalogue. The retailer has modified its logo, emphasising the "smile" design, and changes will be reflected on fascias, point-of-sale materials and online
B&Q
is to take on leisure and outdoor retailers with the launch of a camping range in March
Bhs
will try out a new look in May
Books Etc
will be resurrected next week as an online offer, after the brand and website was bought out of administration following the collapse of parent Borders UK last year
Cash Generator
is to roll out a new Express format to its nationwide chain of second-hand goods stores, following the success of a trial in Stretford
Cote
is to expand its chain of ten restaurants with new sites in London, Birmingham and Farnham this year
Decathlon
is to open its first store in Northern Ireland
Dobbies Garden Centres
is to sell its own-branded products in parent company Tesco stores and build new stores on Tesco sites
G-Star
will open 30 franchise stores within the next five years as part of an ambitious monobrand store expansion strategy
Holland & Barrett
is to make a play for the food-to-go sector with the unveiling of a new-look store
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Home Bargains
has launched a £25m expansion programme under which it will open in Northern Ireland for the first time
JJB Sports
The Competition Commission has provisionally cleared the acquisition by Sports Direct of 31 stores from JJB Sports
John Lewis At Home
will open in the autumn, in Croydon, its second store
Kuyichi
is looking for its first standalone store of around 2,000sq ft in London's West End
Lulu Guinness
opened her first pop-up shop off London’s Carnaby Street between February 8 to 22
McDonalds
is looking to open 15 new restaurants in the UK this year
McGregor
is on the hunt for its first UK stores, and is aiming to have 10 to 15 stores in three to five years
Ollie & Nic
will double its store count and launch concessions this year after a 211% jump in revenue
One Stop
is aiming to open 20-25 stores per year on the back of growing customer numbers
Pierre Herme Paris
is to debut in London at Grosvenor's 13 Lowndes Street in Belgravia
QS
is to disappear from the high street by 2011 as owner Alok Industries ramps up conversions to its Store Twenty One fascia
Sainsbury's Local
has unveiled plans to expand the format into Edinburgh’s "urban villages"
Sally
plans to test a new format in five stores as it seeks to push its retail offer
Scotmid
is planning to develop a chain of up to 40 perfume stores under The Fragrance House brand following the success of trial outlets in Livingston and Dundee
Starbucks
has unveiled the second London store with its new "local" design concept
Supervalu
is trialling a full online shopping service across four stores in Dublin and Cork
The Entertainer
has overhauled its branding and store format following customer analysis, with a new fascia and modified logo, along with altered ceilings and flooring, better lighting, wider aisles, lower racks and increased signage
TK Maxx
is looking to open a number of smaller c10k sq ft womenswear only stores that will focus on more top end brands
Wellworth It!
A Woolworths-inspired store called Wellworth It! Will open at Ledbury in Herefordshire, in March
Financial Restructuring Adams
administrators MCR are thought to have received eight detailed bids for the chain
Ascension
shares have been suspended as it failed to secure finance for the company’s future
Bay Restaurant Group
has received several expressions of interest from private equity-backed suitors
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BB's Coffee and Muffins
is set to be revived, rebranded "Love Coffee"
Card Factory
bidders are thought to be lining up offers in a sale that could fetch up to £400m
Clery's
has asked its staff to work a four-day week in a bid to avoid axing jobs
Designer Room
has gone into liquidation. All ten stores have closed after a potential buyer withdrew an offer
DFS
Veteran retailer John Lovering has teamed up with private equity firm Permira to put together a deal for furniture retailer DFS valued at more than £500m
Diamonds & Pearls
has been sold out of a pre-pack administration to a new company called Renaissance Jewellery
Ethel Austin
and its sister homewares chain Au Naturale have gone into administration. Turnaround specilist Endless is reportedly considering a bid
Fads
owner Divalimit has been placed into administration
Figleaves
has received bid approaches from several different sources, according to reports
Greene King
has bought eight managed pubs from Punch Taverns
Halfords
has added car servicing to its portfolio with the £73.2 million acquisition of Nationwide Autocentres, though bids for both Blacks and Hobbcraft are rumoured
HMV Group
has acquired Mama Group after receiving an adequate level of acceptance from the live music group’s shareholders
John Lewis
is reportedly considering applying for a banking licence, as the retailer looks to take advantage of the fallout from the global credit crunch
KFC
franchisee's in Ireland and Scotland incurred a pre-tax loss of £4 million in 2008, despite an increase in turnover at its restaurants
Matalan
The sale of Matalan has been pulled after potential buyers failed to meet founder John Hargreaves’ price hopes for the value retailer
New Look
has pulled its IPO process, citing an unfavourable market backdrop
Ocado
has appointed advisors ahead of a float which could come as early as May, according to reports
Pets at Home
has been sold to private equity house Kohlberg Kravis Roberts for £955m, including the debt
Pubs N Bars
administrators have appointed Oxford Hotels & Inns to manage it for up to six months
SuperGroup
has announced its intention to raise £125m by floating on the London Stock Exchange
Internal Restructuring Aldi
has closed its Aldi Travel online booking website to new bookings in the UK
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American Golf Discount Centre
owner Lloyds Development Capital has injected £5m into the business and restructured its debt as it seeks to bolster the retailer to gear up for expansion
Blacks Leisure Group
has unveiled proposals to raise £20.3m through a share placing and open offer
Boots
and Mothercare have struck a partnership which will see a new children’s clothing and accessories brand sold exclusively in Boots
Escada
has plans to expand internationally and is likely to introduce menswear and kidswear collections under new owner Megha Mittal
French Connection
has kicked off a major brand repositioning with the launch of a dramatic new-look spring ad campaign, which is said to be its biggest since the launch of its infamous FCUK branding in 1997
H&M
is to bring its Home offer to the UK, going head to head with Zara and Next
Internacionale
has made a string of redundancies at its London buying office and appointed a new head of merchandising
JJB Sports
chairman Sir David Jones is to step down from his role due to ill health
La Senza
owner Lion Capital has acquired 100% of the long-term debt of La Senza, bringing to an end uncertainty over the lingerie retailer’s future
Republic
has restructured its management team to support aggressive growth
Shop Direct Group
plans to close three of its call centres
Tesco plc
is expected to go head to head with estate agents within weeks with the launch of a property website, allowing home owners to advertise their properties for a flat fee
Very
is launching a new maternity range with television presenter Denise van Outen
General Alliance Boots
has moved a step closer to opening Boots-branded pharmacies in Sweden by striking a tie-up with a company owned by the Swedish Association of Pharmacists
B&Q
has been drawn into a row after hiring gardening expert Alan Titchmarsh after some critics argued BBC presenters must be impartial
Best Buy
has trademarked the name of defunct electricals retailer Rumbelows but the brand will not be used by the US giant
Burberry
is to restructure its Spanish arm in a bid to bring the division in line with the global business
Ebay
is muscling in on mainstream fashion players with the launch of its first fashion designer collaboration
Game
is trialling a social networking site
Hollister
has sparked fury by seeking "cool, good-looking" people to work in its first Scottish store
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Iceland
has today started a nationwide search for a customer to become the new face of the brand after Coleen Nolan stepped down
iPod
is the most searched-for brand term on the internet in the brown goods sector, generating 9% of all searches in a month
Key Staff Changes
occurred in the following retailers this month; Lombok, Amazon, Majestic Wine, Morrisons, Animal, Debenhams, Arcadia Group, Burberry, Diesel, Fat Face, John Lewis, SuperGroup, Play.com and Liberty of London
Lush
Chief Executive Andre Gerrie has bought surfwear brand Mambo from Blacks Leisure Group for £800,000 via his Hong Kong investment vehicle
Morrisons
has launched a legal case against former employees of Safeway including its former chairman David Webster to recoup up to £16.4m it faces for alleged dairy price fixing with other retailers
Obesity
A London council is considering the implementation of a ‘No Fry Zone’ around its 65 primary schools in a bid to curb the growing obesity trend in the region’s children
Scottish Retail
Retailers in Scotland will be harmed by the Scottish Government’s failure to introduce business rates transitional arrangements, according to the Scottish Retail Consortium
Supermarkets
have secured the top spot in the children's wear sector for the first time, taking over from high street retailers with a 29% share of the market
The Nectar Card
has become the most popular loyalty card in the UK with 16.8m people now using the card
Property Blockbuster
is understood to be working with restructuring firm KPMG on negotiations with more than 600 landlords as part of cost cutting plans
Brasserie Blanc
has secured a site in the redevelopment of the former Stock Exchange on Threadneedle Street
Eldon Square
The St Andrew’s Way redevelopment of Eldon Square shopping centre has opened
Focus
has asked its landlords to allow it to delay making its January and February rent payments
Gallagher Developments
has put the Junction 9 retail park in Wednesbury, near Birmingham up for sale at £120m
Peel Holdings
is to submit plans to build a £15m shopping centre in Loanhead, Midlothian
PruPIM
has bought the 127,500sq ft Ravenside retail park in Edmonton, north London, for just under £48.3m
St Modwen Properties PLC
has exchanged contracts to sell Catford shopping centre in Lewisham, south east London, to Lewisham Borough Council for £11.52m
Suits You
has proposed a Company Voluntary Arrangement which will allow parent SRG to negotiate with landlords on Suits You leases which are losing money
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Retailer Results
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UK Overview ONS Retail Sales
*The value of retail sales in January at current prices not seasonally adjusted increased 3.1% YoY, changing the 3 month moving average to 3.1%, from 3.2% in December. Value of sales through food stores in January increased by 1.9% YoY, compared with 5% in December, while the value of sales through non-food stores was up 2.7% YoY. As always, Non-Store Retailing (now excluding Repair) was the best performing sector, with a YoY increase of 17.2%. Textile, Clothing & Footwear also did well, up 3.5% YoY, while the Household Goods sector continues to suffer, down 8.4% YoY and pushing the 3mma into negative territory.
*Please note that ONS made several changes to its Retail Sales reporting in January 2010. For more information, see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/rs0210.pdf Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail
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Internet Retail Sales
Based on BRC figures, non-food non-retail sales were 14.6% higher in January YoY, expectedly down from 26.5% for December. According to the ONS*, Internet sales accounted for 8% of all retail sales in January, up from 7.7% in December. Internet Sales
%
28.0 24.0 20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 BRC YoY % Change
ONS Internet as % of Total
*ONS are trialling an experimental measure of Internet retail sales. For more details see http://www.statistics.gov.uk/articles/nojournal/Internet_information_paper_February_2010.pdf.
BRC Retail Sales
Year-on-Year (YoY) total UK retail sales values in January increased 1.2%, while like-for-like (LfL) sales decreased 0.7%. % 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
British Retail Consortium - Retail Sales Monitor
Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun09 09 09 09 09 YoY LfL
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 10
YoY Tot
3mth LfL
3mth Tot
Retail sales in central London in January were 3.5% higher on a like-for-like basis than a year ago, when sales had risen 6.5%. This was the worst January sales growth since 2005.
Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail
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Pedestrian Flows
SPSL’s Retail Traffic Index for January decreased by 27.5% MoM against December, and 5% on January 2009. Experian FootFall reported a MoM decrease of -29.4% and a YoY decrease of 2.6% % 5
Pedestrian Flows - Year-on-Year Change
3 1 -1 -3 -5 SPSL (YoY)
-7
Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun09 09 09 09 09 09
Interest Rates
FootFall (YoY)
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 10
In February, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee once again voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. To provide some variety and comparison, SnapShop has adjusted the graph to show data back to February 2006. % 6
Bank of England - Base Rate
5 4 3 2 1 0 Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb- Jun- Oct- Feb06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 08 09 09 09 10
Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail
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Inflation
In the year to January, the consumer prices index (CPI) rose 3.5%, up from 2.9% in December. The more familiar RPI (Retail Prices Index) increased, from 2.4% in December, to 3.7% in January. Both reflect the increase in VAT rates from 1st January % 6
UK Inflation (CPI v RPI)
CPI
RPI
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10
House Prices
According to the Nationwide index, the price of a typical house rose by 1.2% in January MoM. The average price of a typical UK property in January was £163,481. Commentary by Nationwide states “unless there is a fall in property values in February, annual house price inflation is likely to move into double-digit territory next month for the first time since May 2007.”
% 14
Nationwide House Price Index 2 1.5
10 6
1
2
0.5
-2
0
-6
-0.5
-10
-1
-14
-1.5 -2
-18 Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 YoY
MoM
3mma
NB: YoY figures refer to left hand scale, MoM statistics refer to right hand scale. September YoY was flat.
Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail
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Consumer Confidence
The GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index rose by 2 points during January to -17. Confidence in the “general economy� over the last 12 months rose four points, bringing it twenty three points higher than this time last year. % 5 0 -5
GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index
-10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun09 09 09 09 09
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 10
Research by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission
Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail
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Ireland Overview CSO Retail Sales
At time of writing, the most recently published data were for December, when the value of retail sales in current prices, not seasonally adjusted, was 12.4% lower YOY, decreasing the moving YOY 3 month figure to –12.2% from –11.9% in November. The value of food sales in December decreased to -9.5% YOY, and the value of non-food sales increased to -14.8% from –16.5% the previous month.
Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail
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Inflation in Ireland
In Ireland, HICP rose to -2.4% in January, while CPI increased, to -3.9% - increases for the second month in a row. %
Irish Inflation (HICP v CPI)
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 HICP
CPI
Please see the Retail & Economic Statistics page on SnapShop for more historical detail.
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And Finally…
A Moment On The Lips, A Lifetime On The Hips Feeling a bit peckish but don’t want to pile on the pounds? Fancy a bag of crisps but worried about the salt content? Never fear, Cranswick Food Company are here to help. The Duchy Originals sausage producer has tried to patent a revolutionary new product that promises to provide everything the slimming carnivore could ask for – namely, meat crisps. Said crisps promise to contain fewer calories, fat and salt than the traditional potato variety while having all the flavour of your favourite Sunday roast. These little gems are made by whizzing up some beef and turkey, mixing it with emulsifiers, heating gently then microwaving. Yum! I don’t know about you, but I can hardly wait…
www.fspretail.co.uk 23/02/10 FSP has gone to its best efforts to ensure this data is correct but the author reserves the right not to be responsible for the accuracy of information provided.
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