Malta in a changing climate: the global context Michael Zammit Cutajar former Executive Secretary, UNFCCC Tumas Fenech Foundation, Dolmen Hotel, 3 Oct 2008
Outline • What is happening in the greenhouse? • What should we do about it? At what cost? • [Who should act and when?] • What is the Malta angle?
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Global warming 1880-2005 (NASA data)
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Key messages - science (IPCC 2007)
• Human-induced change is unequivocal – = major factor in global warming
• Impacts generally negative … – – – –
Water stress (but food +/-) Extreme weather (heat waves, storms, floods) Sea-level rise, melting glaciers & ice-caps Spread of tropical diseases, species extinction
• And inequitable – Hitting vulnerable and poor people, countries – Driving climatic refugees vcs 031008
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Ranges for predicted surface warming (IPCC)
+ 4째C + 3째C + 2째C
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Greenland is melting!
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Arctic sea ice 12 Sept 2008 (NSIDC, Boulder CO) QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.
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1979-2000
EU vision • Warming beyond 2°C = dangerous • Below 2°C = safe, manageable … • Requires URGENT ACTION – Global emissions to peak by 2020, to halve by 2050 (base-line 1990) – Richer countries to lead with deep emission cuts – EU collectively >20% by 2020, ?? to > 30% – Emerging economies to limit, then reverse emissions growth – Financial and technological support vcs 031008
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Responses: Mitigation, Adaptation • Reduce deforestation, conserve forests • Transform energy use => low-carbon prosperity: – – – – –
Save energy Invest in energy-efficient equipment Develop cleaner technologies NB. Transport, buildings NB. Policies: education, regulation, incentives, prices (price signal from carbon market)
• Adapt to the inevitable vcs 031008
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Key messages - economics (IPCC 2007, Stern Review)
• Pathway to “safety” is affordable
(IPCC)
– Global GDP growth <0.12% per annum to 2030
• Prevention is cheaper than cure (Stern) – If we value future generations!
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Global negotiations (UNFCCC) • From finger-pointing geo-politics … – Responsibility: for past, for future – Equity: emissions per head – Capability: reduction potential
• To cooperation against common threat – Recognition of vulnerability – Urgency, Ambition – Solidarity
• Copenhagen, Dec. 2009 vcs 031008
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Projected patterns of precipitation changes 2090/2099 : 1980/1999 Dec-Feb
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Jun-Aug
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A Malta angle: Adaptation first • Highly vulnerable to water stress • Importance of effective water policy • Other vulnerabilities: – coastal erosion, agriculture … – health, tourism (+/-) … • MT stresses vulnerability and adaptation as issues for all + solidarity with small islands vcs 031008
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A Malta angle: Mitigation • MT needs ambitious global mitigation strategy • Sensitive to specific policy impacts – e.g. auctioning of EU emission allowances – e.g. control of emissions from sea transport
• Assessing costs/benefits of EU commitments (Climate Change Committee): – Emission caps, renewables (offshore wind) – Contribution to energy security – Connection to EU grid (end of insularity!)
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Political postscripts • Environmental problems = • Failures of markets, social responsibility, governance • Climate change @ 20 = • National security issue vcs 031008
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For more information www.ipcc.ch www.unfccc.int mzc@iddri.org
Top 25 ÂŤ footprints Âť (WRI/Pew Center; data for 2004 - LUCF 2000)
Top 25 in Population
Egypt, Nigeria, Vietnam, Philippines, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Pakistan
(Taiwan), Netherlands, Argentina Turkey
USA, China, EU25, Canada, Russia, India, Japan, Rep. Korea, Germany, Brazil, UK, Australia, Italy, France, Mexico, S. Africa, Indonesia, Iran, Thailand Spain, Poland
Myanmar, D.R.Congo
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Top 25 in GDP
Saudi Arabia, Malaysia
Top 25 in CO2 emissions 20 (incl. LUCF)
Effectiveness, fairness, responsibility, potential (Data for 2000, 6 KP gases - except 1950-2000) Source: WRI/CAIT Tons per cap 1950-2000 cumulative Intensity (tCO2e) CO2 - % world + T/cap Kt/M$GDP
% World emissions Excl LUCF
Incl Excl Incl LUCF LUCF LUCF
Energy
Energy Plus LUC
Excl LUCF
USA
19.2
24.3
0.70
EU 25
13.2
10.5
0.46
Annex I
48.4
39.3
World 54.2
14.1
13.9
5.9
7.2
3.3
4.9
73.8% 456 T/cap
52.6% 457 T/cap
0.64
122 T/cap
171 T/cap
0.80
27.1% 42 T/cap
47.6% 103 T/cap
0.91
NonAnnex I
43.7
China
13.6
3.9
0.98
India
4.5
1.6
0.67