Conflict Assessment Indicators
The Fund for Peace Country Analysis Indicators and Their Measures
THE FAILED STATES INDEX | THE FUND FOR PEACE
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Contents
Conflict Assessment
4
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
5
Demographic Pressures
6
Refugees and IDPs
8
Group Grievance
9
Human Flight and Brain Drain
11
Uneven Economic Development
12
Poverty and Economic Decline
13
Legitimacy of the State
14
Public Services
15
Human Rights and Rule of Law
16
Security Apparatus
18
Factionalized Elites
19
External Intervention
20
About The Fund for Peace
21
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3
The Fund for Peace
Conflict Assessment
T
he strength of the The Fund for Peace’s conflict assessment is its ability to distill millions of pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily digestible and informative.
Daily, The Fund for Peace collects thousands of
The content analysis is further triangulated
reports and information from around the world, detailing the existing social, economic
with two other key aspects of the overall assessment process: quantitative analysis and
and political pressures faced by each of the 177
qualitative inputs based on major events in the
countries that we analyze.
countries examined. The scores produced by
The Fund for Peace’s software performs
the Fund for Peace’s software are then compared with a comprehensive set of vital
content analysis on this collected information.
statistics—as well as human analysis—to
Through sophisticated search parameters and algorithms, the CAST software separates the
ensure that the software has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic data underpin-
relevant data from the irrelevant. Guided by 12
ning the Failed States Index is already freely
primary
and
social,
economic
and
political
widely
available
electronically,
the
indicators (each split into an average of 14 subindicators), the CAST software analyzes the
strength of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the systematic integration of a
collected information using specialized search
wide range of data sources.
terms that flag relevant items. This analysis is then converted using an algorithm into a score
This manual provides an overview of the 12
representing the significance of each of the
indicators and their sub-indicators.
various pressures for a given country.
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4
The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
T
welve conflict risk indicators are used to measure the condition of a state at any given moment. The indicators provide a snapshot in time that can be measured against other snapshots in a
time series to determine whether conditions are improving or worsening.
understanding of the 1 to 10 scale.
Below is the list of indicators with suggested measures (the data that you will be looking
warrant a score of 10 for Indicator #8.
for) that you will use to rate each indicator.
education and other public services by the government of Sweden would produce a 1 or 2
The
complete inability of the Somali government to provide public services for its citizens would Conversely, the extensive provision of health,
They are divided into social, economic, and political/military categories. The measures
for that same indicator. In another example, the significant external presence of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq or a UN peacekeeping mission
listed here are not exhaustive. You may cite others. Certain indicators draw on quantitative data (for example, Indicator #6) and others
would garner a score of 10 for Indicator #12.
utilize qualitative data (such as Indicator #3).
In contrast, while Myanmar faces significant destabilizing factors captured in the other
Rating the Indicators
indicators, its relative isolation from the international
Each Indicator is rated on a 1 to 10 scale with 1 (low) being the most stable and 10 (high) being the most at-risk of collapse and violence. Think of it as trying to bring down a fever,
and
external
It is important not to place an extreme amount of importance on small scoring differences.
with high being dangerous and low being
The larger trends and extensive data used that
acceptable.
provide your rationale for changes will make the most valuable contribution to your expert assessment.
To do the ratings, you should draw upon obvious historical examples to guide your
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community
influences would produce a much lower score of 2 or 3 in Indicator #12.
5
The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Mounting Demographic Pressures
•
•
Pressures deriving from high population
Pressures from high population growth rates or skewed population distributions, such as a "youth or age bulge," or sharply
resources.
divergent rates of population growth
Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns that affect the freedom to
among competing communal groups.
•
Pressures
stemming
from
natural
participate in common forms of human
disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods,
and physical activity, including economic productivity, travel, social interaction,
drought, etc.) creating human suffering and deprivation.
religious worship, etc.
•
•
density relative to food supply, access to safe water, and other life-sustaining
•
Pressures deriving from group settlement patterns and physical settings, including border disputes, ownership or occupancy of land, access to transportation outlets, control of religious or historical sites.
Pressures stemming from epidemics, such as HIV/AIDS, bird flue, SARS, and other contagious diseases.
•
Pressures stemming from environmental hazards, infrastructure development that uproots communities, and industrial projects
that
threaten
indigenous
populations. Measures
Possible questions to ask
Disease Control
Is there a system for controlling spreading of diseases or pandemics?
Disease Epidemics
Is there a high likelihood or existence of diseases of epidemics?
Environmental Policies
Do sound environmental policies exist?
Environment Practices
Are actual environmental practices sustainable?
Starvation
Is there a short-term food shortage that needs to be alleviated?
Malnutrition
Are there long-term food shortages affecting health?
Food supply
Is the food supply adequate to deal with potential interruption?
Drought
Is there are high likelihood of droughts or is there currently a drought?
HIV Aids Growth Rate
What is the rate of spread of HIV Aids Infection cases most recent and projected?
Number Infected with HIV Aids
How many HIV Aids cases are there?
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Land competition
Does land competition it and are there laws to arbitrate land disputes?
Resource Competition
Does resource competition it and are there laws to arbitrate resource disputes?
Likelihood of Natural Disasters
Is a natural disaster likely, recurring?
Impact of Natural Disasters
If a natural disaster occurs, is there an adequate response plan
Deforestation
Has deforestation taking place or are there laws and policies to protect forests?
Water Supply
Is there access to an adequate potable water supply?
Orphan Population
Is there a high orphan population?
Population Density
Is population density putting pressure on areas of the state?
Population Distribution
Does the country have a normal population distributed - actual and projected?
Population Growth
Is the population growth rate sustainable?
Infant Mortality
What is the infant mortality rate - actual and projected?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs
Forced uprooting of large communities as a
turmoil that can spiral into larger humanitar-
result of random or targeted violence and/or repression, causing food shortages, disease,
ian and security problems, both within and between countries. This indicator refers to
lack of clean water, land competition, and
refugees leaving or entering a country.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Number of IDPs
How many IDPs are there in relation to population?
Increase in IDPs
Are IDPs likely to increase in the near future?
Impact of IDPs
Are there resources to provide for projected and actual IDPs?
Influx of Refugees
Are refugees likely to come from neighboring countries?
Impact of Refugees
Are there resources to provide for projected and actual refugees?
Increase in Refugee Camps
Are there sufficient refugee camps or are refugees integrated into communities?
Violence against Refugees
Are there reports of violence against refugees?
Safety of Refugee Camps
Are conditions safe in refugee camps?
Relief Efforts
Is there access to additional resources from international community for refugees and/or IDPs?
Relocation & Settlement
Are there plans for relocation and settlement of current IDPs and/or refugees?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Paranoia •
• •
•
History of aggrieved communal groups
•
Public scapegoating of groups believed to
citing injustices of the past, sometimes going back centuries.
have acquired wealth, status or power as evidenced in the emergence of “hate”
Pattern of atrocities committed with
radio, pamphleteering, and stereotypical
impunity against communal groups.
or nationalistic political rhetoric.
•
Specific groups singled out by state
Groups
aggrieved
because
they
are
authorities, or by dominant groups, for
denied autonomy, self-determination or
persecution or repression.
political independence
Institutionalized political exclusion.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Compensation for Victims
Are victims of past atrocities compensated or is their a plan to compensate them?
Truth & Reconciliation
Does a Truth & Reconciliation process exist or is one planned, needed?
Distribution of Resources
Is there an equitable and efficient distribution of resources?
Ethnic Hatred or Tolerance
Are there feelings of or reports of ethnic violence?
Religious Hatred or Tolerance
Are there feelings of or reports of violence based on religion?
Group Oppression
Are groups oppressed or do they feel oppressed?
Reintegration
Have groups been reintegrated, if applicable?
History of Group Grievance
Is there a history of violence against a group or group grievance?
Intertribal Relations
How are intertribal relations?
Interethnic Relations
How are interethnic relations?
Vigilante Justice
Are there reports of vigilant justice?
War Criminals
Are war criminals apprehended and prosecuted? Do the public feel war criminals are properly treated?
Mass Violence
Are the reports of mass violence?
Racial Violence
Are there reports of violence that is racially motivated?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Mass Killings
Are there reports of mass killings?
Reconstruction
Is there a plan for reconstruction and development?
Religious Persecution or Tolerance
Is there freedom of religion accoring to laws and practiced by society?
Religious Violent Persecution
Are there reports of violence that is religiously motivated?
Amnesty
Has amnesty been granted?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Chronic and Sustained Human Flight and Brain Drain •
•
“Brain drain” of professionals, intellectu-
such as entrepreneurs, businesspeople,
als and political dissidents persecution or repression.
artisans and traders, due to economic deterioration.
fearing
•
Voluntary emigration of "the middle
Growth
of
exile
communities
and
Diasporas.
class", pa rtic ula rl y ec onomicall y productive segments of the population, Measures
Possible questions to ask
Brain Drain
Is there a relatively high proportion of higher educated people leaving the country?
Remittances
Are there a large amount of remittances coming to families from relatives overseas?
Political Drain or Return
Are politicians leaving the country?
Professional Flight
Are professionals leaving the country?
Return of Middle Class
Is the middle class beginning to return to the country?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Uneven Economic Development Along Group Lines •
Group-based inequality, or perceived
•
•
Group-ba sed
impov eri shment
Rise of communal nationalism based on real or perceived group inequalities.
inequality, in education and economic status. as
measured by poverty levels, infant mortality rates, educational levels, etc. Measures
Possible questions to ask
Discriminatory Economics
Is the economic system discriminatory?
Economic Equality - Gap
Is there a large economic gap?
Economic Justice
Does economic justice exist?
Free Education
Does free education exist and if so, to which grade?
Equal Education
Is the education provided relatively equal?
Fair Housing
Is there a housing system for the poor?
Existence of Ghettos or Slums
Do ghettos and slums exist?
Hiring Practices
Are hiring practices generally fair - legally and the perception of others?
Job Training
Do programs for job training exist?
Job Training Use
Do people know about the job training and is it available based on qualification and need?
Social System
Do equal rights exist in the society?
Equal Rights Legislation
Are there laws protecting equal rights?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Poverty, Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline •
A pattern of progressive economic decline
•
of the society as a whole as measured by per capita income, GNP, debt, child
economic austerity programs.
•
mortality rates, poverty levels, business
flight.
Sudden drop in commodity prices, trade
•
revenue, or foreign investment.
•
Growth of hidden economies, including the drug trade, smuggling, and capital
failures, etc.
•
Extreme social hardship imposed by
Increase in levels of corruption and illicit transactions among the general populace.
Collapse or devaluation of the national currency.
•
Perceived group inequalities.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Government Debt
What is the government debt?
Interest Rates
How are the interest rates - actual and projected?
Inflation Rate
How is the inflation rate - actual and projected?
Consumer Confidence
How do people view the economy?
National Economy
How do experts view the economy?
Productivity
What is the productivity?
GDP
What is the GDP - actual and projected?
Unemployment
How is the unemployment - current and rate of unemployment?
Economic Focus
Does one product make up the majority of the economy?
Business Climate for FDI
Is the business climate attractive to FDI?
Business Climate for Entrepreneurship
Do the laws and access to capital allow for internal entrepreneurship?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State •
Massive
and endemic
corruption or
•
profiteering by ruling elites.
•
Widespread loss of popular confidence in
Resistance of ruling elites to transparency,
state institutions and processes, e.g., widely boycotted or flawed elections,
accountability and political representa-
mass public demonstrations, sustained
tion, revealed by scandals, investigative journalism, criminal prosecution or civil
civil disobedience, inability of the state to collect taxes, resistance to military
action.
conscription, rise of armed insurgencies.
•
Growth of crime syndicates linked to ruling elites.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Armed Insurgents
Are there reports of armed insurgents and attacks?
Suicide Bombers
Have there been suicide bombings and how likely are they?
Corruption of Federal Officials
Is there evidence of corruption on the part of federal officials?
Accusation of Corruption of Federal Officials
Are federal officials considered to be corrupt?
Corruption of Local Officials
Are local officials considered to be corrupt?
Accusation of Corruption of Local Officials
Are local officials considered to be corrupt?
Perception of Elections
Are elections perceived to be free and fair?
Monitoring of Elections
Have elections been monitored and reported as free and fair?
Confidence in Government
Does the government have the confidence of the people?
Makeup of Government
Is the government representative of the population?
Most recent Leadership Transition
Have there been recent peaceful transitions of power?
History of Leadership Transitions
What is the longer term history of transition of power?
Political Rights
Do political rights for all parties exist?
Political Assassinations
Are there reports of politically motivated attacks and assassinations?
Riots & Uprisings
Have riots occurred?
Peaceful Demonstrations
Have peaceful demonstrations occurred
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Progressive Deterioration of Public Services •
Disappearance of basic state functions
•
State apparatus narrows to those agencies
that serve the people, including failure to protect citizens from terrorism and
that serve the ruling elites, such as security agencies, presidential staff, the
violence and to provide essential services,
central bank, the diplomatic service,
such as health, education, sanitation, public transportation, etc.
customs and collection agencies, etc.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Access to Housing
Do the poor have access to adequate housing?
Housing Costs
Are housing costs in line with the general economy?
Education Enrollment
What is the level of school enrollment? Different for boys and girls?
Literacy Rates
What are the literacy rates? Different for boys and girls?
Fuel Supply
Is there an adequate supply of fuel?
Access to Medicine
Do people have adequate access to medicines?
Number of Clinics or Hospitals
Are there an adequate number of medical facilities for the population?
Number of Physicians
Are there an adequate number of medical professionals for the population?
Infant Mortality
What is the infant mortality rate - actual and projected?
Potable Water
Is there access to an adequate potable water supply?
Public Services Equality
Is there equal access to public services?
Public Services General
What are the general conditions of public services?
Roads
Are roads adequate and safe?
Sanitation
Is sanitation system adequate?
Airports
Are there adequate airports for sustainable development?
Railroads
Are there adequate railroads for sustainable development?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Suspension of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights •
•
•
Emergence of authoritarian, dictatorial or
•
Widespread abuse of legal, political and
military rule in which constitutional and democratic institutions and processes are
social rights, including those of individuals, groups and institutions (e.g.
suspended or manipulated.
harassment of the press, politicization of
Outbreak of politically inspired (as opposed to criminal) violence against
the judiciary, internal use of military for political ends, public repression of
innocent civilians.
political opponents).
Rising number of political prisoners or dissidents who are denied due process consistent with international norms and practices.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Child Labor
Are there child labor laws or reports of child labor?
Civil Rights
Are there civil rights laws and are civil rights protected?
Communal Rights
Do communal rights exist and are they protected?
Labor Rights
Do labor rights exist and are they protected?
Legal System
If rights are not protected, is there a legal system in which that can be addressed?
Minority Rights
Do communal rights exist and are they protected?
Access to Information
Is there equal access to information?
Freedom of Movement
Is there freedom of movement?
Arbitrary Arrests
Are there accusations or reports of arbitrary arrests? Are these state-sponsored?
Illegal Detention
Are there accusations or reports of illegal detention? Are these state-sponsored?
Political Rights
Do political rights exist and are they protected?
Power Sharing
Is there a process and system that encourages political power sharing?
Prison Conditions
How are the prison conditions?
Fair Trials
Do accused receive a fair and timely trial? Is this equal for all?
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A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Religious Freedom
Does religious freedom exist?
Religious Extremism
Does religious extremism exist?
Forced Relocation
Are groups forced to relocate?
Compensation for Relocation
If relocation occurs, is there a system that ensures proper compensation?
Right to Life
Is the right to life protected for all citizens?
Torture
Are there reports of state- or group-sponsored torture?
Freedom of Speech
Are there laws protecting freedom of speech?
Existence of Independent Media
Does an independent media exist? Do its reporters feel free to publish accusations against those in power?
Systemic Violation of Rights
Is there a history of systemic violation of rights by the government or entity therein?
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A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a State” •
•
Emergence of elite or praetorian guards
•
Emergence of an “army within an army,”
loyal to a leader, that operate with impunity and by-pass the chain of
secret intelligence units, or other irregular security forces that serve the interests of a
command of regular armed forces.
political clique or leader.
Emergence of state-sponsored or statesupported “private militias" that terrorize
•
Armed resistance to the governing authority, violent uprisings and
political opponents, suspected “enemies,”
insurgencies, proliferation of independent
or civilians seen to be sympathetic to the opposition.
militias, vigilantes, or mercenary groups that challenge the state’s monopoly of the use of force.
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Arms Proliferation
Is there a high availability of weapons?
DDR Program
If in reconstruction, is there an adequate plan for demobilization, disarmament and reintegration of former combatants?
Use of Force
Does the military and police maintain proper use of force?
Guerillas
Are there guerilla forces operating in the state? Do they control territory?
Militias
Do private militias exist against the state?
Military
Is the military under civilian control?
Paramilitary
Is there paramilitary activity?
Accusations of Police Brutality
Are there accusations of police brutality?
Professionalization of Police
Are the police considered to be professional?
Political Violence
Is violence often state-sponsored and politically motivated?
Private Forces
Do private armies exist to protect assets?
Government Response to Security Threats
Is the government dealing well with any insurgency or security situation?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Rise of Factionalized Elites
•
Fragmentation of ruling elites and state
•
institutions along ethnic, class, clan, racial or religious lines.
•
Absence of legitimate leadership widely accepted as citizenry.
representing
the
entire
Use of nationalistic political rhetoric by ruling elites, often in terms of communal irredentism (e.g., a "greater Serbia") or of communal
solidarity
(e.g.,
“ethnic
cleansing" or “defending the faith").
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Concentration of Wealth
Is wealth concentrated in the hands of a few?
Growing Middle Class
Is there a burgeoning middle class?
Fragmentation
Are there factionalized elites, tribal elites and/or fringe groups? How powerful are they?
National Identity
Is there a sense of national identity?
Law
Are the laws democratic or extreme?
Leadership
Is the leadership fairly elected?
Nationalism
How strong are feelings of nationalism?
Representation in Judicial System
Is the judicial system representative of the population?
Representation in Military
Is the military representative of the population?
Control of Resources
Does any one group or party control the majority of resources?
Distribution of Resources
Are resources fairly distributed?
Revenue Distribution
Does the government adequately distribute wealth through its tax system and taxes
Extremist Rhetoric
Does hate radio and media exist?
Political Reconciliation
Is there a political reconciliation process?
Separatism
Are there calls for separatism?
Stereotyping
Is religious, ethnic, or other stereotyping prevalent and is there scape-goating?
Cross Cultural Respect
Does cross-cultural respect exist?
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The Fund for Peace
A Quick Guide to the Indicators
Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors •
•
Military or paramilitary engagement,
through large-scale loans, development
both covert and overt, in the internal affairs of the state at risk by outside
projects, or foreign aid, such as ongoing budget support, control of finances, or
armies, states, identity groups, or entities
management of the state’s economic
that affect the internal balance of power or the resolution of conflict.
policy, creating economic dependency.
Economic intervention by outside powers,
Humanitarian or strategic military intervention into an internal conflict or for
including
regime change.
multilateral
•
organizations,
Measures
Possible questions to ask
Covert Intervention
Are covert operations taking place?
Economic Intervention or Aid
Is the country receiving economic aid?
Dependency on Aid
Is the country dependent on economic aid?
External Support for Factions
Is there external support for factions opposed to the government?
Military Attacks Across Borders
Are military attacks from other countries occurring?
Presence of Foreign Troops
Are foreign troops present?
Military Assistance
Is there external military assistance?
Military Training
Are there military training exercises with other nations or support of military training from other states?
Peacekeeping
Is there a peacekeeping operation on the ground?
Training of Police
Is there external support for police training?
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The Fund for Peace
About The Fund for Peace
T
he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security
Transnational Threats
We promote sustainable security through
states. We work at both the grassroots level
research, training and education, engagement
with civil society actors and at policy levels
of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technolo-
with key decision makers. We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners
gies and tools for policy makers.
in all
sectors: governments, international
organizations, the military, nongovernmental A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on
organizations, academics, journalists, society networks, and the private sector.
civil
the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of
useful to decision-makers.
promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully
The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing
without an external military or administrative presence.
Contact Us for More Information Ken Brill President T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 207
Krista Hendry Executive Director T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 212
J. J. Messner Senior Associate T: +1 202 223 7947 ext. 206
E: kenbrill@fundforpeace.org
E: khendry@fundforpeace.org
E: jmessner@fundforpeace.org
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