Security and Stability in Uganda
UNLocK Update Report 11 August-December 2010
UNLOCK | THE FUND FOR PEACE
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Contents
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his report was compiled by Kendall Lawrence and Melody Knight, under the supervision of Nate Haken, Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace. It is the eleventh in a series that is part of a pilot project to integrate
data and perspectives from civil society networks in conflict-affected zones into CAST, The Fund for Peace’s conflict assessment early warning methodology. The project, the Early Warning and State Building Initiative, is made possible with funding from Carnegie
Corporation of New York, Humanity United, and National Endowment for Democracy. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of The Fund for Peace.
Comparative Analysis
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Election Security and Stability
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Analysis by Select Indicators
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Sub-regional Analysis
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Looking Ahead
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About The Fund for Peace
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UNLocK | Uganda
Comparative Analysis
Comparative Periodic Analysis: Percentage of Reports by Indicator
External Intervention
Factionalized Elites
Security Apparatus
Human Rights and Rule of Law
Public Services
State Legitimacy
Economic Pressures
Uneven Economic Development
Human Flight and Brain Drain
August—December, 2010
Numbers represent a percentage of documents by period.
March—July, 2010
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Group Grievance
Refugees and IDPs
Demographic Pressures
32
24
16
8
0
Election Security and Stability
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he period of August—December 2010 was a very political season in Uganda, with the NRM (National Resistance Movement) primaries in August, the nomination of presidential candidates in October, followed
by the beginning of the campaigns for the February 2011 elections. Thus, as could be expected, there was a sharp increase in reports coming from the UNLocK participants relating to political factors. Whereas in the previous five months there were relatively few reports relating to state legitimacy, this issue, particularly incidents of corruption and election irregularities, were reported frequently by participants from August to December. There were fears expressed about the potential for election violence, especially considering the 2009 and 2010 riots in Kampala, which some felt could be reignited in the heat of the contest. However, although there were a few reports of violence and intimidation, this was less of an issue in the run-up to the election than many had anticipated, especially as compared with previous Ugandan elections.
The Indicators The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state:
Social
Demographic Pressures Refugees or Displaced Persons Group Grievance
Economic
Human Flight/Brain Drain Uneven Development Economy Legitimacy of the State
Apart from election issues, during this period there were reports relating to public services, factionalized elites, security issues, and external intervention with pastoralist raids from across the Kenyan border. Corruption and limited resources have continued to undermine public service delivery, namely in education, healthcare, and sanitation projects. Land competition continued to be a major issue, especially in the Acholi sub-region, often leading to violence. Politicians were criticized for leaving their districts for urban areas and becoming disconnected from their constituencies, further dividing the activity in the center from the problems in the periphery.
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Political
Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention
Reports of non-state armed actors were received from various districts in the northern region, including reports of cross-border issues in Karamoja. Some weapons were recovered, and a number of shootings
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Election Security and Stability
occurred throughout Uganda between August and December.
(15 reports), Human Rights (13 reports), Group Grievances (11 reports), Economic Decline (9 reports), Refugees/IDPs (6 reports), Uneven Development (2 reports) and Human Flight (1 report).
This report provides an overview of incidents and issues across the country, as reported by the UNLocK participants during the five months of August to December 2010. This report does not presume to be comprehensive or evenly distributed from one district to the other. However, it provides a glimpse into the concerns and perspectives of a particular network of civil society organizations, trained in conflict assessment.
Geographically, 39% of the reports came from the Acholi sub-region in the North (77 reports). It was followed by Buganda in the Center (27 reports), West Nile (26 reports), Karamoja (18 reports), and Teso (18 reports). In total, 62% of the reports came from the northern region of the country.
Methodology Findings This is a summary of the civil society field reports from the five month period of August to December, 2010. It is organized by indicator, with maps showing affected regions and districts. Those outlined in red are districts that have field reports associated with them. A red outline does not necessarily mean that it is worse off than the districts lacking in data, though it does highlight problems that need to be addressed in that particular district or sub-county, as reported by local civil society. The maps do not reflect the most recent changes to the administrative borders of some districts.
Since 2008, The Fund for Peace (FfP) has conducted four training workshops in conflict early warning, based on our conflict assessment methodology (CAST) in Uganda. Participants included a broad range of civil society representatives from the country, the goals being to enable them to recognize potential danger signs, document events, gather data from across the country and communicate it to each other and the FfP for processing and analysis. This information is to be used both for the identification of immediate concerns as well as to inform conflict-sensitive approaches to development and policy for the long term.
Broken out by indicator and district, 198 reports were logged during the period in question. Of the 12 CAST indicators, issues relating to State Legitimacy (47 reports) were of greatest concern to civil society, followed by Public Services (27 reports), Demographic Pressures (22 reports), Factionalized Elites (22 reports), Security Apparatus (22 reports), External Intervention
Since the UNLocK Uganda early warning system was established in 2008, over 960 reports (broken out by indicator and district) have been entered into the database. The data generated by the participants has been saved on a password-protected website, which is accessible by the participants for their own analysis and for the corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.
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UNLocK | Uganda
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Demographic Pressures Land continues to be a primary source of conflict within the country. Competition over land has led to violence and death. There were also a number of reports of disease outbreaks in the northern districts. Natural disasters in the form of fire and flooding have led to problems with food supply.
58
42
2 6
17
68
39 4 35
• Flooding in Pader (District 68) and Soroti (District
74
74) has led to food scarcity.
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• Fires in Gulu (District 17) reportedly destroyed 40 huts, leaving people homeless.
• Reported health issues included jiggers in Kitgum
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(District 42), which caused school closures. Red-eye was reported in Adjumani and Moyo (Districts 2 and 58). Yellow fever was reported in Pader (District 68).
Uganda reported between the people of Pabbo and Amuru sub-counties.
• Land competition continues to be a major issue. For instance, it was reported that in Gulu and Amuru (Districts 17 and 39) there was a border dispute between people of Atiak and Palaro sub-counties. Within Amuru (District 39) a land dispute was
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• Concerns about land competition between nomadic Balalo herdsman and the communities in Amuru (District 39) were expressed in the reports.
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy 43 77
58
22
42
•
It was reported that there were problems with the voter registry in Kaabong (District 22).
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The Inter-Party Cooperation accused the military of intimidating supporters of the opposition.
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In Adjumani (District 2) there were reports of severe tension between incumbent MP, Santos Eruaga and Moses Ali. This tension has included allegations of rigging and ethnic polarization.
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Government corruption was reported by UNLocK participants, including embezzlement and inflating payrolls with “ghost workers.” For example, it was reported that there were 300 ghost workers on the Mulago National Referral Hospital payroll in Kampala (District 29).
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In Pader (District 68) the District Water Officer was arrested for failure to account for money used for drilling boreholes.
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The Chief Administrative Officer and Chief Finance Officer were arrested for embezzling 80 million Ugandan Shillings which were meant for teachers' salaries in Koboko (District 43).
2 6
17
68
39 47 4 16
35 74 69
64
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Uganda During this five-month period, government corruption and election irregularities were the largest concern with respect to state legitimacy. With the 2011 elections approaching, election irregularities and voter intimidation were concerns in some areas. Doubts were expressed about the independence of the Electoral Commission.
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There was political violence reported during the NRM primaries.
Reported Pressures on Public Services
77
58
6
education and health care. There were a few reports of inadequate policing, relating to electoral violence and some concern about the supply of water and electricity.
42 17
68
74
29
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It was reported that in Gulu (District 17) there was a shortage of government subsidized drugs in the free clinics, especially in the rural areas.
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Problems with maternal healthcare were reported in Kitgum (District 42).
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People were reportedly angry in Arua (District 6) because of problems with electricity supply.
• •
In Arua, maternal mortality has reportedly increased.
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A water shortage was reported in Soroti (District 74).
Uganda Reported pressures on public services related mostly to
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Inadequacies in the education system were reported in Gulu (District 17) and Kampala (District 29).
UNLocK | Uganda
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Human Rights Violations Violent crime dominated this indicator, comprising three-quarters of reports from August to December, 2010. These included reports of murder, shootings, arson, and violent revenge for adultery and land disputes.
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Two UPDF soldiers were reportedly arrested in connection to robbery in Koboko (District 43). Koboko, which borders DR Congo and South Sudan, reportedly experiences high levels of smuggling and armed robberies, with criminals hiding in the three countries.
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In Gulu (District 17) Simon Komakech, the brother of Denis Okema, the UPC MP candidate for Gulu municipality, was stabbed to death at his home the day after Christmas.
•
43 2 68
17
1
39
29
Uganda strangled to death by a gang. On the day of his burial, one person was lynched in revenge.
In Abim (District 1) it was reported that a man was
Reported External Intervention When the state is dependent on outside donors to meet its development needs and provide basic public services, it indicates a lack of capacity on the part of the state to meet its obligations to its people. In addition, when the state cannot control its borders, external intervention can occur by armed groups.
58
42 17
68
44
39 67
• Concern about the lack of government capacity as reflected by a dependence on external donors in the areas of infrastructure development and governance programs was highlighted in Amuru (District 39), Gulu (District 17), Kitgum (District 42), and Oyam (District 67).
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• In Moyo (District 58) a Sudanese game ranger reportedly shot a Ugandan boy dead for poaching. This is the second time this game ranger has allegedly killed a Ugandan and people are reportedly calling for revenge.
Uganda reportedly attacked and injured a local political leader and killed one UPDF soldier. Ten animals were stolen but were later recovered by the UPDF.
• In Kotido (District 44), pastoralists from Kenya
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Pressures from Factionalized Elites stations at times allowed political groups to air threatening messages. 2 6
17
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In Kampala (District 29), the Kabaka of Buganda was widely perceived to be encouraging his people to vote for the opposition FDC candidate, despite the constitutional prohibition against traditional leaders engaging in “partisan politics.” There has been a recent history of violent protest by his supporters, and crackdowns by the security forces.
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In Adjumani (District 2) there were reports of severe tension between incumbent MP, Santos Eruaga and Moses Ali. This tension has included allegations of rigging and ethnic polarization.
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In Kabarole (District 24), there was tension when the Toro Kingdom prime minister was dismissed by the king, who was abroad at the time. Some clan leaders and elders resisted his dismissal. Police intervened to restore order.
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Tension was reported in Arua (District 6) over the proposed new Maracha District and the location of its headquarters.
68
64 75
24 72 29
Uganda Prior to elections, factionalization of the elites is expected. Such factionalization is important to moderate so that after the election there can be a smooth transition from campaigning to governance.
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There was political violence during the NRM primaries. Reports included incidents in Kampala (District 29) and Sembabule (District 72).
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In Gulu (District 17) it was reported that radio
Reported Pressures on Security Apparatus Violence perpetrated by non-state armed groups was most problematic in the Karamoja region, as reported by the UNLocK participants. Additional pressures were reported in other parts of the country.
22
6
17
44
68 1
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In Pader (District 68), a couple was reportedly murdered by a gunman over a land dispute. In a separate Pader incident, one looter, armed with an AK47, was apprehended.
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As in previous UNLocK reports, during this period there were reports of mob/vigilante justice. In Abim (District 1) one man was killed by a gang and on the day of his funeral another was lynched in revenge.
64 29
Uganda
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Clashes reportedly occurred at political rallies in Gulu (District 17) and Sembambule (District 72).
62
74
72
•
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Sub-regional Analysis
Acholi Sub-region During this period the Acholi subregion generated the most reports, with 76 out of 198. As illustrated in the bar chart below, reports dealt primarily with concerns about state legitimacy, given the election season.
Acholi Sub-region Reports by Indicator: Aug-Dec 2010 20 16 12
However, apart from the election issues, land competition continued to be a major pressure in the region. Land competition was reported in Palaro (Subcounty 8), Atiak (Subcounty 1), Pabbo (Subcounty 2), Amuru (Subcounty 3), Kilak (Subcounty 49), and Pajule (Subcountry 48). Land competition continued to be a major issue in the Acholi sub-region in part due to the recent return of many people who had been displaced. Now that there is relative peace throughout the north, people are returning to their ancestral lands, which often leads to disputes over land ownership.
8 4 0
See page 5 for a key to indicators
Acholi
1 2
The subcounty in the Acholi sub-region that generated the most reports was Pajule (subcounty 48). Reported incidents included several unrelated killings and a land dispute.
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8 48
3 19
49
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UNLocK | Uganda
Sub-regional Analysis
Karamoja Sub-region One of the least developed subregions of Uganda, Karamoja, has historically had problems with cattle rustling and corruption. With security forces spread thinly, it is a difficult area to police. The government has begun installing more security measures like Anti-Stock Theft squads and other Local Defense Units. The degree of cattle rustling has reportedly gone down over the course of the year. During this period there were some clashes reported between pastoralists and UPDF soldiers.
Karamoja Sub-region Reports by Indicator: Aug-Dec 2010 10 8 6 4 2 0
Karamoja generated 18 reports this period (down from 50 in the previous period), the majority of which came from the Kaabong district and were related to the security apparatus indicator.
See page 5 for a key to indicators
Karamoja The highlighted map shows which sub-counties within the sub-region had specific reports. Violence between government soldiers and non-state armed groups was reported in Kaabong (Subcounty 5) and Kacheri (Subcounty 9). Violence between a member of a Local Defense Unit and a warrior was reported in Loyoro (Subcounty 8). An ambush was reported in Kalapata (Subcounty 3). Cattle raids were reported in Sidok (Subcounty 7), Kalapata (Subcounty 3), and Nakapelmoni (Subcounty 13). In the latter two instances, it was reported that the perpetrators were pastoralists from Kenya. The authorities have been able to work with the Kenyan security forces to coordinate the response to these attacks. Cooperation between the two countries is reportedly improving, which could have a positive impact on this problem.
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9 13 15
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Looking Ahead
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uch has changed in Uganda during the last two years of this early warning initiative. The Lord’s Resistance Army has been out of the picture since 2006 and relative peace has taken hold in the North. protests could lead to violence if the election was not perceived to be fair. Fortunately this has not taken place, despite the call for protests by several opposition candidates. Still, the potential for such violence continues to be a risk.
Displaced people have returned home. People have resumed their lives. However, in spite of improvements on the security front, these summary reports have consistently highlighted land competition, corruption, vigilante justice, and problems with service delivery. As of this writing, the 2011 presidential election has taken place, with incumbent Yoweri Museveni winning another five-year term. Based on the field reports generated by this initiative, these problem areas should be a priority to his administration and other stakeholders, including the international community.
As highlighted in these field reports, beyond the election related concerns, broader issues of corruption will need to be addressed over the course of President Museveni’s next term of office. Corruption undermines foreign investment. The embezzlement of state and international aid funds has exacerbated pressures on public service delivery. Greater transparency, monitoring, and accountability are necessary when allocating funds for education, healthcare, and sanitation projects.
This summary report, covering the period between August and December, 2010, highlighted pressures associated with the election campaign season. Issues reported suggest that in future elections, greater care must be taken with the electoral process to ensure that there is no fraud or even perceived fraud. The independence of the Electoral Commission should be above question. Duplicate and missing names should be avoided in the voter registry. Polling stations should be legal and well run. Votes should not be bought with cash or goods. Ethnically polarizing rhetoric should be condemned. While security is important, security forces should not be deployed in a way that is perceived as intimidating. Monitoring of the process by local civil society and outside groups should be encouraged. Election violations must be promptly investigated and prosecuted by the judiciary.
Land competition continues to be a major problem, often leading to violence. The judicial system should improve the grievance process, making it more timely and accessible. People should be made aware of their legal rights and the mechanisms that exist, so that they will not resort to violence. State and local governments should also focus more attention on the reintegration of refugees and IDPs, especially in the northern region, as their return exacerbates this problem. Greater training, resourcing, and oversight of police could decrease the level of vigilante justice, especially if the police were to reach out to the communities more effectively, building trust and lines of communication. Though the situation in the North has undeniably
There was a lot of concern this time around that
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Looking Ahead
improved over the last two years, problems remain. And now that neighboring South Sudan has chosen to secede from Sudan, there is the potential that Northern Uganda could be negatively affected if the move to independence produces turbulence, refugees, or arms smuggling. The West Nile and Karamoja sub-regions
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would likely be the most directly affected by either positive or negative developments in South Sudan. This potential makes it all the more important that the issues described in this report be dealt with as soon as possible.
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About The Fund for Peace
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he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.
We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST), a content analysis software product that provides a conceptual framework and a data gathering technique for measuring conflict risk.
What Makes Us Unique • •
The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states. We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.
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The Fund for Peace has worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments, international organizations, the military, nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector.
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Combining social science techniques with information technology, we have produced the
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We produce The Failed States Index, an annual ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that is published by Foreign Policy magazine.
Our Approach The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our activities relate to six interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early warning and State Building; Peace and Stability Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human Rights; and Sustainable Development.
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CR-11-08-UL