Preparing for the Election Cycle in Nigeria: Corruption and Intimidation
UNLocK Update Report 10 August-November 2010
UNLOCK | THE FUND FOR PEACE
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Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law
Contents
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his report was compiled by Jumoke Balogun and Jenna Torosian, under the supervision of Nate Haken, Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace. It is the second in a series that is part of a pilot project to integrate data
and perspectives from populations in conflict-affected zones into CAST, the FfP’s conflict assessment early warning methodology. The project, the Early Warning and State Building Initiative, is made possible with
funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York, Humanity United, and National Endowment for Democracy. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of The Fund for Peace.
Preparing for the Election Cycle: Corruption and Intimidation
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Analysis by Select Indicators
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State-level Analysis
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Looking Ahead
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About The Fund for Peace
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Preparing for the Election Cycle: Corruption and Intimidation
D
uring the period covered by this report (August-November 2010) the election season was getting under way. This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society in the UNLocK
Nigeria early warning network, with a particular focus on the state and local levels in the Niger Delta region. According to these incident reports, candidates reportedly engaged in intimidation against their opponents. Candidates and their family member were kidnapped or killed. Criminal and vigilante elements were reportedly co-opted or recruited for political reasons. Officials were accused of corruption. The government’s rebel amnesty program continued to falter due in part to ambiguity and controversy over who is eligible to participate. Floods destroyed homes and poverty.
The Indicators The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state:
Social
Demographic Pressures Refugees or Displaced Persons Group Grievance
Economic
Human Flight/Brain Drain
This report provides an overview of the pressures at the local level as reported during this four-month period. These issues should be monitored and addressed to reduce pressures which could lead to violence during the April presidential election.
Uneven Development Economy Legitimacy of the State Public Services
Political
A Focus on Bayelsa and Abia States Bayelsa and Abia are both located in the oil-rich Niger Delta. They face similar issues, such as armed militant groups and government corruption. Pages 15 and 16 provide a deeper analysis of those two states.
Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention
Pages 4 through 8 summarize the reports by indicator with geographic visualizations of where pressures were reported.
Findings This is the second summary report for UnLock Nigeria. The report covers four months (August 1 to November 30, 2010) of field reports from participating civil society organizations.
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Election Security and Stability
Broken down by indicator and state, there were 224 reports logged during this period. Of the 12 CAST indicators (see page 6 for a description of the indicators), issues relation to Security Apparatus were the most prominent (57 reports), followed by State Legitimacy (39 reports), Human Rights (36 reports), Factionalized Elites (26 reports), Public Services (21 reports), Economic Pressures (18 reports), Group Grievance (13 reports), Demographic Pressures (9 reports), Human Flight (3 reports), and Refugees/IDPs (2 reports).
Methodology In May 2010, The Fund for Peace conducted a training workshop in conflict early warning, based on our conflict assessment methodology (CAST). Participants included a broad range of civil society representatives in Nigeria, the goals being to enable them to recognize potential danger signs, document events, gather data from across the country and communicate it to each other and the FfP for processing and analysis. This information is to be used both for helping people get out of harm’s way in the short term, as well as for developing conflict-sensitive approaches to development and policy in the long term. Since the UNLocK early warning system was established, over 431 reports (broken out by indicator and state) have been entered into the database as of this writing. The data generated by the participants has been saved on a password-protected website, accessible by the participants for their own analysis and for the corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.
Geographically, most of the reports came from the South-South region (158 reports) followed by the South -East (36 reports), South-West (5 reports), Federal Capital (5 reports), North-Central (2 reports), and North-West (1 report). There were 15 reports that dealt with the country as a whole. The distribution of reports reflects the geographical spread of the participating organizations, most of which are based in the South-South. Many of them are human rights and civil rights organizations, which influences the types of reports that they send. Thus, this summary provides a rich description of the environment over the last four months, as seen by civil society focused in the Niger Delta region.
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Number of Reports by Indicator
External Intervention
Factionalized Elites
Security Apparatus
Human Rights and Rule of Law
Public Services
State Legitimacy
Economic Pressures
Uneven Economic Development
Human Flight and Brain Drain
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Group Grievance
Refugees and IDPs
Demographic Pressures
60
40
20
0
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Demographic Pressures devastated several communities in the South-South region:
• Communities in several LGAs in Bayelsa (State 6), including Kolokuma-Opokuma, Sagbama, and Southern Ijaw, were reportedly completely submerged due to massive flooding.
• It was estimated that N100 billion was needed to address the problems of erosion and flooding in the Oredo LGA in Edo (State 12)
• In Akwa Ibom (State 3), flooding led to loss of lives
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and property.
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• Unrelated to flooding, uncoordinated efforts by the
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national and the Abia state government (State 1) to curb environmental degradation led to a dispute between the newly formed Abia State Environmental Protection Agency (ASEPA) and the federal Ministry of Environment.
Nigeria
In the previous period (April-July 2010) environmental degradation was the dominant issue in this indicator. This period natural disasters were reported more frequently, especially flooding associated with the rainy season as well as poor infrastructure to deal with such disasters. As reported by civil society, flooding
• Participants highlighted the lack of enforceable legislation on environmental pollution in Delta (State 10).
Reported Refugees or Internally-Displaced Persons Issues relating to refugees and IDPs were not emphasized in this period. However, there were a few reports of displacement highlighting the lack of public services and insecurity in some parts of the country.
• Several communities were displaced due to flooding in Bayelsa (State 6)
• Ethnic grievances between the Nsadop and Boje communities in Cross Rivers (State 9), reportedly caused the displacement of thousands, many of whom fled to Ikom LGA. 9 6
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Nigeria
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Group Grievance According to reports from UNLock participants, ethnic tension in the South South and South East was an issue that led to violence on several occasions.
• There was tension reported in Akuku Toru LGA in Rivers (State 32). Several chiefs demanded that the Kula Amayanabo be dethroned by the state governor for allegedly withholding Chevronsponsored scholarship money, importing weapons, mobilizing youths, and intimidation. Some have threatened violence if the issue is not resolved.
• The Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) in Rivers (State 32) alleged that the federal government is mismanaging the amnesty program for militants.
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• Intra-communal violence in the Ataba community in
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Nigeria
several people.
the Andoni LGA in Rivers (State 32) left several dead.
• In Gokana, Rivers (State 32), several were reportedly killed, and several houses and cars were burned by youths from different communities after a conflict was sparked by a missing cell phone. It was reported that there had been a land dispute between the two groups prior to the incident.
• In Port Harcourt LGA, Rivers (State 32) Bundu Indigenes sued the federal government for destroying their waterfront settlements in 2009.
• An ethnic clash in Boki, Cross Rivers (State 9) between the Nsadop and Boje communities killed
Reported Human Flight It was reported that insecurity due to kidnappings, militancy, and gang violence, as well as the general lack of economic opportunity have motivated the skilled and educated to leave some areas, putting a strain on human capital, particularly in the South East: Abia (State 1) and Anambra (State 4).
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Nigeria
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Economic Decline main issue reported within this indicator. In Aba South LGA, Abia (State 1) gangs and militants laid siege to the commercial city. As people fled the city and banks closed, traders called for a state of emergency and President Goodluck Jonathan sent federal troops to the city to curb the violence which affected the supply of goods to the rest of the country.
• The recent upsurge in kidnapping cases in the South South reportedly led to the migration of prominent men and businesses and adversely affected local economies.
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• UNLock civil society members also reported that
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unemployed youths in several other states, including Delta (State 10) have resorted to violent crimes, and abductions for ransom.
Nigeria
During this period, youth unemployment was the
Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy mismanaging the N900 million World Cup budget.
• There were reports of government corruption in Cross River (State 9), Delta (State 10) and Rivers (State 32).
• Andoni local government chairwoman was impeached for breach of security and misconduct in Rivers (State 32).
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• Allegations of police impunity, corruption, and brutality were reported in several Rivers (State 32) LGAs (Gokana, Port Harcourt, Emohua, Khana).
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Plateau (State 31) and Rivers (State 32), and Abuja (State 37).
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• Protests and riots were reported in Edo (State 12),
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Nigeria
• There have been strikes at state universities in the South-South and South-East region after the state government refused to pay the amount for wages requested by the federal government.
Accusations of police, government, and military impunity and corruption made this the second most reported indicator this period. These issues not only undermine government legitimacy, but also stifle economic growth.
• Disputed elections and impeachments have caused confusion in Delta (State 10) and Bayelsa (State 6)
• Accusations of military impunity were reported in
• The former chairman of the Nigeria Football
Gokana, Rivers (State 32)
Federation (NFF) and three others were indicted for
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on Public Services Reports from UNLock participants suggest that inadequate policing presents a major challenge to sustainable security. There were also several reports on inadequacies in the transportation, health, and education systems.
• Police in Rivers (State 32) were accused of hasty accusations in the murder of the former militant leader Soboma George.
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• Several bus drivers have reportedly been killed during robberies on the road between Abia (State 1) and Rivers.
• In Rivers, Primary Health Care Centers in the Port
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Harcourt area were abandoned due inadequate government leadership.
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• Over the past decade in Cross River (State 9),
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Nigeria
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• Port Harcourt International Airport in Rivers
unfinished road projects have cost about N150 billion and have resulted in accusations of embezzlement.
reportedly does not meet international safety standards.
Reported Human Rights Violations Several high profile murders highlight the vulnerability of public officials and their families. Several cases, including the murders of the Head of a unit at the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (Kaduna—State 18), a political aspirant (Imo—State 16), a state commissioner (Bayelsa—State 6), a prominent doctor (Abia—State 1), a PDP chieftain (Rivers—State 32), chairman of the PDP (Akwa Ibom—State 3) and an activist (Lagos—State 24) are troubling indicators that political disputes are frequently solved through violent means.
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• Public officials are not the only victims of violence.
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Three men were murdered in Port Harcourt, Rivers (State 32)
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Nigeria
• Instances of gender-based violence, including a case • Further, several school children were abducted in
of child molestation, were reported in Eleme and Gokana LGAs in Rivers (State 32) and in Aba South LGA in Abia (State 1)
Abia and some foreign nationals were also abducted.
• Several cases of police extortion were reported in
• Vigilante justice was also reported in the child
Rivers and Bayelsa (State 6). The Joint Task Force (JTF) was also implicated in extortion schemes with commercial drivers being the major target.
molestation case in Rivers (State 32)
• The father of a newspaper assistant editor was kidnapped in Ekiti (State 13).
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reports on Security Apparatus Niger Delta, issued press statements after the independence day bombing that threatened state and oil facilities.
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• An attack on an oil facility was reported in Bayelsa (State 6).
• Kidnappings of school children, government officials, political aspirants, educators. Businessmen, and foreign officials were reported in Abia (State 1), Akwa Ibom (State 3), Anambra (State 4), and Rivers (State 32).
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• The issue of arms proliferation was reported in
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several states- Lagos (State 24), Rivers (State 32), and Borno (State 8). Tens of thousands of weapons were intercepted by government officials. Further, it was reported by UNLocK civil society members that MEND was believed to be rearming in Bayelsa (State 6)
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Nigeria
Security Apparatus issues were the most reported by UNLock participants. Incidents related to problems with non-state armed militias, government security forces, and organized crime. The security crisis in the country was highlighted by the Independence Day bombings in the Federal Capital Territory (State 37), where MEND militants detonated bombs near the ceremonial site during the country's 50th anniversary. Although an amnesty deal between militants in the Niger Delta and the government was announced just a year ago, UNLocK participants reported that militants are believed to have started re-arming due to failed amnesty promises. Coupled with inadequate government policies, a general lack of confidence in the justice system, and an impending election in April, the situation has the potential to deteriorate further.
• A resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta has also led to violent crackdown on militants by the Joint Task Force (JTF) in Delta (State 10) and Bayelsa (State 6).
• Reports indicate that police impunity continues to be a problem. Police corruption and impunity were reported in Akwa Ibom (State 3), Bayelsa (State 6), Delta (State 10), Edo (State 12), and Rivers (State 32). Allegations include unlawful arrests, unprovoked violent outburst, and bribery.
• The vigilante group, the “Bakassi Boys” formed in Abia (State 1) have reportedly carried out several instances of vigilante justice. Vigilante justice was also reported in Anambra (State 4).
• In Delta (State 10), Bayelsa (State 6), and Rivers (State
• In Delta (State 10), Rivers (State 32), and Bayelsa
32), ex-militants continue to protest the failing amnesty programs.
(State 6), state-sponsored militia activities were reported.
• MEND, the Movement for the Emancipation of the
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Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Factionalized Elites Kidnappings and abductions of public officials and members of their families were reported the be a major problem. Similar to the last period, factionalization at all levels of government continues to undermine political stability. Further, there are reports that several prominent actors, in association with militants, are instigating electoral violence before the April elections.
• In Akwa Ibom (State 3), the young son of a political aspirant was kidnapped. Further, a university professor and Gokana Local Government chairmanship aspirant was found murdered in his car in Rivers (State 32)
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• Also in Akwa Ibom, this time in the Uyo LGA, the
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brother of an important statesman was kidnapped. The wife of a man vying for the governorship was also kidnapped in Uyo.
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Nigeria
assembly and charged with cultism and illegal possession of arms in Rivers.
• A dispute between the governor and deputy
• Political infighting within the Ogun (State 27)
governor in Bayelsa (State 6) continued to gridlock state politics.
legislature has reportedly led some lawmakers to go into hiding.
• The governorship was still undecided in Delta (State
• In Edo, the non-PDP governor believes that
10) and in Enugu (State 14), fractionalization at the state level continued to hamper political development
corruption allegations by the PDP were politically motivated.
• 12 members of the PDP were arrested for unlawful
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State-Level Analysis
Number of Reports by State
80
60
40
20
0
Rivers Plateau Oyo Ogun Niger Delta Lagos Kaduna Imo
Federal Capital Territory Enugu Ekiti Edo Delta Cross River Borno Bayelsa Anambra All LGAs Akwa Ibom Abia
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Sub-regional Analysis
Bayelsa State Bayelsa State
• The Governor was reportedly paying "Bayelsa 4
Volunteers," a non-state armed group, to maintain law and order.
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2
The amnesty program initiated by late President Yar’adua seemed promising in the beginning of the year, but lack of oversight and the perception of unfulfilled promises have reportedly led some to rearm. UNLock civil society members listed several instances of instability in the state:
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• Militants attacked an oil pipeline in Osiama Bayelsa, a state in the South-South region, located between Delta and Rivers, is embroiled in political disorder, related in part to organized crime and militancy. Once governed by current President Goodluck Jonathan, the affairs of the state are currently in disarray with political leaders reportedly resorting to violence against one another.
(Southern Ijaw LGA 3) and forced the oil company to shut down the 60,000 bpd operation pending investigation.
• The military action ordered by the federal government against recent acts of terrorism and resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta led to a raid of several militant camps (Yenagoa and Southern Ijaw LGA 3)
Political tension in the state goes back at least as far as the 2007 gubernatorial race. In that election, PDP candidate Timipre Sylva won the race, but was challenged by his opponent Ebitimi Amgbare (Action Congress). The Appeals Court unanimously nullified the election and ordered a new one, which Sylva won overwhelmingly in 2008. In 2010, several violent events, targeted at public officials, point to a particularly vitriolic political environment, one that might be exacerbated in the lead-up to the 2011 election:
Complicating matters in the state, and adding to the frustration of the people, flooding in October left many displaced and without adequate public services:
• Flooding from the River Nun completely submerged communities. Schools and other community institutions were also submerged and 5,000 inhabitants lost their lives in the deluge. (KolokumaOpokuma LGA 5, Sagbama LGA 4, and Southern Ijaw LGA 3)
• After the impeachment of deputy-governor
Combined with reports of police and military impunity, a resurging militancy, and a disorderly state government which co-opts and recruits non-state armed groups, Bayelsa is a state under great pressure. Upcoming elections have heightened tension. Civil society is very much concerned about the possibility of election-related violence.
Peremobowei Ebebi in June 2010, his residence was bombed.
• In October, the Governor was booed and stoned by ex-militants unhappy with the amnesty program. (Yenagoa LGA 1)
• In November, a bomb went off at the premises of Tim Alaibe’s country residence, in Opokuma LGA 5, killing one police constable. Alaibe was the chairman of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and running against Sylva in the gubernatorial race. A police constable was killed in the process.
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Sub-regional Analysis
Abia State Abia is located between Rivers and Akwa Ibom States. It has historically had problems with criminality, civil strife, and violence. With oil deposits in the southern part of the state, there has been tension over compensation, environmental degradation, and resource allocation for development and infrastructure. In response to the insecurity the Joint Task Force (JTF), a subdivision of the Nigerian Armed Forces, has been deployed. In addition, the Bakassi Boys, youth who are known for vigilante justice and extrajudicial killings, have also been active in the state.
Abia State
The period of August-November was difficult for Abia. Security deteriorated, with rising criminality and abductions, to the point that in September, a bus was hijacked and 15 school children were abducted in a single incident. As a result of the rising insecurity, President Jonathan ordered a military offensive in October.
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active, including in the settlement of marital quarrels and debt recovery. In the month prior to this period, July, it was reported that the Bakassi Boys killed five men who were accused of armed robbery.
Insecurity in Abia State reportedly caused people to flee the area, both for safety and economic reasons. Economic growth is very low in the state. Unemployment is high. Kidnapping is common, and hefty ransoms are demanded. It was reported that often the victim is killed even after the ransom has been received.
• A joint military task force was given orders to crack down on the kidnapping in Abia State. It was reported that armed personnel set criminal hideouts and houses on fire. This issue was reported in Ukwa West (LGA 2).
In the descriptions of incidents and issues below, most of the reports dealing with insecurity and criminality were associated with Aba South (LGA 1).
• In October, the security situation got so bad that the President deployed thousands of soldiers to the state. It was reported that the Bakassi boys worked
• The Bakassi Boys have reportedly been increasingly
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Recommendations
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n the Niger Delta region, criminality and militancy have worsened in the last year. These problems have long appeared intractable, despite many efforts to address them, including the deployment of troops and an amnesty
for militants. In addition, vigilante groups have been formed, sometimes in an attempt to provide security and sometimes to further political aims. There have also been efforts to address the economic side of the instability, including foundations dedicated to community development set up by oil companies.
These vigilante groups appear to have some popular support, which emphasizes a troubling lack of confidence in the security forces. Although these parallel structures may fill a short term need, in the long run, they contribute to an environment of anarchy. State security forces need to do more to fulfill the need for law and order by protecting civilians, while minimizing the abuse and corruption that have made them so distrusted in the first place.
As seen through a CAST lens, the social, economic, security, and political drivers of conflict all need to be addressed simultaneously. An integrated approach such as that laid out by the recommendations of the 2008 Niger Delta Technical Committee Report, is needed. A military approach without development only aggravates the situation, and can further alienate distrustful populations if the response is seen to be too heavy handed or if the impact on civilians is too great.
Meanwhile, elections incentivize political actors to coopt or recruit armed groups from among the criminal and vigilante elements. They do this because their opponents are also doing it and because they believe that if they do not do this, then they will surely lose, or worse. Indeed, many aspiring candidates have been abducted or assassinated in the last several months. On the other hand, if they win the election, the monetary benefits can be high. A lot of money moves through the Niger Delta and corruption is a crosscutting issue which contributes to all of the economic, political and security issues highlighted here.
Regarding the amnesty, ex-militants believe they have been promised jobs training and allowances if they lay down their guns. Aside from the difficulties of identifying who is eligible for the allowance, and the difficulties of ensuring that they receive it, allowances cannot be distributed forever. That is not a long term solution. If the economy is not producing jobs, the jobs training becomes a formality they undergo so they can collect their allowance. Eventually the allowances will stop and ex-militants will go back to the creeks, which some have already begun to do. Ultimately there needs to be economic development for any of these programs to work. However, without security, development will not happen and vigilante groups fill the gap with impunity.
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Untying this knot is extremely difficult. Technical improvements can be made in all of these areas, which would improve the various parts of the problem. But more broadly speaking, the government must take an integrated approach: improve the implementation of the amnesty program; increase investment in infrastructure and public services such as health,
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Recommendations
electricity, and education; and hold the security forces accountable for human rights violations. Civil society should be more proactive about bringing cases of corruption to the courts. It will take a combined effort of actors with conflicting interests and good reasons to distrust each other, working together, to address the political, security, and development issues facing the Niger Delta and Nigeria as a whole.
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About The Fund for Peace
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he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Transnational Threats
We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments, international organizations, the military, nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector.
We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our programs fall into three primary thematic areas: Conflict Early Warning and Assessment; Transnational Threats; and Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security.
The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states. We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.
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Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security
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