UNLocK Report 15
Human Insecurity in Nigeria
October 2011 - April 2012
55th Anniversary 1957-2012
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
Copyright Š 2012 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace.
The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law
UNLocK Reports Series Editor Nate Haken Report Written by Natalie Manning Megan Turner Amelia Whitehead The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CUNGR1212 (Version 07C) Circulation: PUBLIC
The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org
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UNLocK Nigeria
Overview
Introduction & Contents This report was compiled by Natalie Manning, Amelia Whitehead, and Megan Turner under the supervision of Nate Haken, Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace. UNLocK partners with local civil society in conflict-affected regions for better conflict early warning, assessment and prevention by integrating local knowledge into CAST, FFP’s
conflict assessment and early warning methodology. The program, Conflict Early Warning and Assessment, is made possible with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy. The statements and views expressed are solely the responsibility of The Fund for Peace.
Summary
4
Methodology
5
Analysis by Select Indicators
6
State-by-State Analysis
11
Timeline
14
Looking Ahead
15
About The Fund for Peace
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Comparative Periodic Analysis Percentage of Reports by Indicator 40
March 2011 - September 2011 vs. October 2011 - April 2012 March 2011 - September October 2011 - April 2012
32
Numbers represent a percentage of documents by period.
External Intervention
Factionalized Elites
Security Apparatus
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Human Rights and Rule of Law
Public Services
3
State Legitimacy
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Economic Pressures
Human Flight and Brain
Group Grievance
0
Refugees and IDPs
8
Demographic Pressures
16
Uneven Economic Development
24
UNLocK Nigeria
Summary and Findings
October 2011 - April 2012 As Goodluck Jonathan begins his new term as President of Nigeria, he faces many challenges. Even as a fragile peace takes hold in the Niger Delta, gang violence and criminality continue unabated. In the North, Boko Haram, an Islamist terrorist group, continues to wreak havoc. Though the government has taken some steps towards strengthening the democratic process, instances of corruption and vote rigging have been reported at the state and local levels over the past seven months. The Nigerian government, civil society, and other stakeholders must take steps to address these governance and security issues, or risk further instability in the future. This report compiles the incidents and issues documented by civil society representatives in the UNLocK Nigeria early warning network
from October 2011 to April 2012, with a particular focus on the state and local government area levels of Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Kaduna. Incidents and issues summarized here include election irregularities surrounding gubernatorial elections, such as political corruption and intimidation, as well as social and economic pressures relating to land competition, group grievance and violent crime. These incidents and issues are categorized according to the Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework, which allows for a holistic evaluation of the pressures on society and the state that could increase the risk of instability.
relating to the Security Apparatus and State Legitimacy were less frequently reported in this period than were reported in the previous election and post-election period. Pressures associated with Public Services and Human Rights, however, have been more frequently reported in this time period than in the previous, as a percentage of the total number of incidents. This report does not presume to be comprehensive or evenly distributed from one indicator or location to another. Rather, it provides a glimpse into the concerns and perspectives of a particular network of civil society organizations, trained in conflict assessment, most of which are based in the Niger Delta region, Kaduna, and Lagos.
As is evident from the comparative periodic analysis on the previous page, pressures
Findings This is the fifth summary report for UNLocK Nigeria. This report covers incidents logged during a seven month period (October 1 2011 – April 1 2012) by participating civil society organizations. It is organized by indicator, with maps showing affected states and local government areas.
State Legitimacy (34 reports), Public Services (27 reports), Security Apparatus (26 reports), Group Grievance (9 reports), Factionalized Elites (8 reports), Demographic Pressure (8 reports), Poverty and Economic Decline (7 reports), Human Flight (3 reports) and Uneven Economic Development (2 reports).
Broken down by indicator and state, there were 101 reports logged during this period. Of the 12 CAST indicators (see page 3 for a list of the indicators), reports relating to Human Rights were the most prevalent (41 reports), followed by those pertaining to
Geographically, the vast majority of reports came from the South-South geopolitical zone, followed by the South-West and the NorthWest zones, in order of frequency. Most of the participating organizations are based in the South-South.
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The majority of participating organizations focus on human and civil rights, which influences the types of reports that they contribute. This summary therefore provides a rich description of the political and socioeconomic climate in these areas over the last 7 months, as seen by a specific network of civil society organizations focused in the Niger Delta region.
UNLocK Nigeria
Methodology
About the Program Between October 2011 and April 2012, The Fund for Peace and the Institute for Human Rights and Humanitarian Law held three UNLocK workshops in Port Harcourt, which were attended by representatives from dozens of local civil society organizations. During these workshops, participants reviewed and contextualized CAST (FFP’s conflict assessment framework) to make it relevant to the local conflict landscape. Members contribute incident reports to the UNLocK database on an ongoing basis. The goals of the project include fostering a civil society-led conflict early warning and prevention process, documenting events and incidents, gathering data from across the country (with an emphasis on the Niger Delta
region so far), and facilitating communication between members of the network for the purposes of data processing and analysis. This information can be used for the crafting of conflict-sensitive approaches to development, as well as policies for mediumto long-term conflict mitigation initiatives. Since the UNLocK early warning system was first established in Nigeria in 2007, over 766 incident reports (categorized by indicator and by state) have been entered into the database. The data generated by the participants has been saved on a passwordprotected website, which is accessible to participants for their own analysis and for the corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.
A Focus on Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Kaduna States This report focuses on the Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Delta, and Kaduna states between the months of October 2011 and April 2012. Reports from Akwa Ibom mostly dealt with election irregularities and the intimidation of political opposition during the gubernatorial election. Reports from Rivers State related to abductions, police corruption and sexual violence. Reports from Delta State pertained mainly to robbery and violent crime. The majority of reports from Kaduna State related to non-state armed militias. Pages 10-13 provide a breakdown of the data from those four states.
Indicators The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state:
Social
Economic
Political/Military
Demographic Pressures
Uneven Development
Legitimacy of the State
Refugees or Displaced Persons
Economy
Public Services
Group Grievance
Human Rights
Human Flight/Brain Drain
Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention
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Analysis
Select Indicators
Reported Demographic Pressures Nigeria
Nigerian law grants the Governors of each State significant control over land administration, which has contributed to several conflicts between local inhabitants and government officials. Incidents have included cases where the state has claimed farmland for large-scale development projects.
•
A similar issue is faced by the Omunobo community in Rivers State, as their land has reportedly been compulsorily acquired by the state for the construction of a highway linking Port Harcourt to the international airport nearby.
•
Illegal logging by state officials in the same region has reportedly threatened residents’ livelihoods by destroying many of the area’s mangrove forests.
In Rivers State, A report logged in February 2012 highlighted the ongoing conflict between the Ogoni In Khana LGA and the Rivers State government, which is attempting to establish a banana plantation run by a Mexican firm, Union De Iniciativa S.A De C.V.
Rivers Akwa Ibom
•
Apart from competition over land, other demographic pressures reported during this period included flooding and environmental degradation.
Reported Group Grievance Nigeria
7 Kaduna
32
Delta Bayelsa
Akwa Ibom
Nigeria is culturally rich with a diverse population from many ethnic and religious backgrounds. In a context where there is competition for resources and influence, there has sometimes been tension and grievance along group lines. The 1999 constitution established the Federal Character Commission, an institution regulating the distribution of “indigeneship certificates”, the possession of which can determine, among other things, one’s ability to vote and to attend school in the area. Oil extraction, in conjunction with high unemployment rates, endemic poverty, and the proliferation of small arms, has exacerbated the complex social tensions around identity and indigeneity, contributing to a number of conflicts across the country.
•
In Akwa Ibom State, local youth led a protest
against
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an
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oil
company’s
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employment of non-indigenes natives, disrupting production.
•
over
Conflict over indigeneity again erupted in the same region when an unknown gunman killed one man and wounded several others due to a dispute over land.
•
Tensions between the Muslim North and the Christian South also increase the risk of conflict onset. In January 2012, local youths in the Delta State’s Ughelli North LGA committed several crimes directed at Northerners, including cattle rustling and assault. A similar incident was reported in Rivers during the previous time period.
The Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, has also targeted Christians as part of its bombing campaign, as in April 2012, when a suicide bomber allegedly affiliated with the group attempted to destroy a local church in Kaduna.
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy State legitimacy was the second most reported indicator for this period. Election irregularities were reported in Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa, as were the arrest of protestors and police corruption.
•
•
7
Corruption:
•
There
were
numerous
reports
of
corruption, particularly relating to local police forces. In Rivers, police officers reportedly stopped cars and taxi drivers in order to demand bribes. On several occasions, when drivers refused to comply, their keys were taken and they were badly beaten. Passengers in taxicabs and buses whose drivers refused to pay were forced to disembark.
In Delta, workers at the Delta State Oil Producing Areas Development Commission were reportedly unable to enter the building for two days when demonstrators seized control of the premises. The demonstrators were reportedly protesting the alleged misappropriation of federal funding that was intended for the purchase of wheelchairs and crutches for the disabled.
In January, the government’s decision to eliminate federal fuel subsidies resulted in widespread protests across the country. In Rivers, demonstrators took to the streets for ten days to protest the removal of the subsidies.
Protests:
•
Nigeria
arrested after peacefully demonstrating against the rape of a university student.
Election Irregularities in the Gubernatorial Government Elections: Multiple reports in Akwa Ibom related to bias against female local election candidates. Party chiefs and community elders reportedly disqualified candidates based on their gender. Other reports alleged intimidation against the supporters of female candidates.
In Abia, women protesters were reportedly
•
In Rivers, it was reported that charges against a man accused of raping a young girl were dropped after the alleged perpetrator bribed the police.
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Abia Delta Bayelsa
Imo Rivers Akwa Ibom
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Human Rights Violations Nigeria
Most reports in this indicator pertained to child abuse. Other issues included kidnapping, especially for ransom, and sexual violence.
19
•
Abia
Bayelsa
Rivers Akwa Ibom
Several women were reportedly gang raped by gang members and criminals. In Rivers, four teenagers were arrested for breaking into homes and raping women. A young woman in Rivers State died after a group of men broke into her house and sexually assaulted her.
In Bayelsa State, there were several cases of violent abuse against children, some of which resulted in the child’s death. In one instance, a young girl was taken to a local children’s shelter after she was severely beaten by her father. Numerous reports of rape were also filed, many of which resulted in the victim contracting HIV/ AIDS.
Imo
•
•
Kidnapping for ransom was reported in several states (see Security Apparatus).
Reported Factionalized Elites Nigeria
All reports of Factionalized Elites during this period dealt with intimidation of the political opposition during the run-up to the Bayelsa local elections.
police on false charges, and subsequently shot and killed in prison. A further three candidates were reportedly suspended over alleged misconduct one day prior to the launch of their political campaigns.
• •
One candidate was severely wounded and his family killed by cult groups. Another candidate was reportedly arrested by
Bayelsa
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Clashes broke out in Bayelsa between two groups supporting opposing candidates. Five people were reportedly killed in the incident.
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on Security Apparatus The presence of Non-State Armed Groups undermined security in Nigeria during this time period, particularly cult groups and organized crime, political thugs, and militants. There were also reports that public security officials sometimes abused their power. Below is a graph showing the trend in UNLocK reports of abductions over the last two years. Indeed, abductions are a major problem in the Niger Delta. According to police reports, in 2011 there were over 350 cases in Delta State alone.
•
In Bayelsa State, cult violence led to a number of deaths. Cult violence has reportedly escalated due to the ease with which cult members, usually students, can gather arms. One participant reported that a student used his money for school fees to purchase arms. Cult violence sometimes spills over into nearby towns. After a shooting battle between two cult groups in Yenagoa, for instance, violence spread to nearby towns.
•
In Abia State, a group of thugs, suspected to be loyalists of the ruling PDP, reportedly stormed the state headquarters of the Progressive Peoples Alliance during a party secretariat meeting. Party faithfuls were abducted and property was looted and damaged. Policemen responsible for protecting the secretariat had reportedly left the building just before the attack occurred.
•
Also in Abia State, the Anti-Terrorist Squad stationed at the council secretariat in Agboko was accused of harassing local government employees.
•
The leader of a cult gang was reportedly
Nigeria
shot dead by a suspected rival gang in Delta. It was reported that the man was shot at close range, in his chest, about five times. The shooters escaped in a vehicle.
•
The militant group, Boko Haram, terrorized
Kaduna
residents in the North. On Sardwana Road in Kaduna, members of the group attempted to bomb a church by packing the car they were driving with explosives. The car was turned away by church security and police officers, but exploded several kilometers down the road, killing 40 people.
•
In Akwa Ibom, a kidnapping ring was discovered, run by a serving counsellor from Ibiono. The ring was linked to a number of incidents, including the kidnapping of another counsellor from the same LGA. After the counsellor was arrested, members of his gang reportedly killed the police informant.
•
There were multiple kidnappings reported in Rivers. Gunmen abducted the elderly mother of a State Assembly leader, and demanded a twenty million dollar ransom for her release. Kidnappers in Abia abducted a two year old boy for ransom; when confronted, the kidnappers abandoned the boy in a forest where he was later discovered by locals.
•
Bayelsa
Rivers Akwa Ibom
A bomb blast was also reported in a Kaduna motor park, killing a further 50 people.
•
Abia Delta
A reported ringleader of kidnappings in Delta State, the chairman of the AntiKidnapping Task Force, has been arrested
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Reported Abductions 2010-2011 14 Crisis in Abia Predominantly Akwa Ibom
12 10
Predominantly Rivers State
8 6 4 2 0
2010
2011
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on Public Services Nigeria
Kaduna
Lagos
One of the most important public services provided by the state is ensuring a functional and legitimate police force for promoting peace, protecting human security and ensuring respect for human rights and the rule of law. This is especially important in post-conflict or fragile states, when a state is vulnerable to lapsing into conflict. In Nigeria, there is a lack of public trust and confidence in the police force. Reports of police corruption and abuse included the following:
to clear his name in relation to a case of theft. While he waited to speak to the community leader, four policemen arrived in a vehicle. One of the officers shot him in the stomach. At the time the incident was reported, the case was before the Federal High Court.
•
Rivers
•
•
•
In Kaduna State, a popular entertainer was reportedly shot and killed by a policeman. The shooting reportedly occurred after the man went to his community leader’s home
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Kaduna
State,
a
policeman
In Bayelsa State, a twenty-year old man was reportedly shot and killed by police officers at a check point after refusing the pay a bribe. The three officers were subsequently arrested.
In Rivers State, police reportedly went on a shooting rampage after shooting and killing a suspected thief. The police started to shoot at random when on-lookers protested the thief’s killing.
in
reportedly shot a man in the stomach without due cause.
Delta Bayelsa
Also
•
In Lagos State, a policeman stopped a bus driver who was in the process of pulling over to pick up passengers. With his gun, the officer broke the bus’ side mirror and ordered passengers off the bus. Another police officer managed to control the situation.
Analysis
The States
Nigeria
Reports by State for the Reporting Period
Rivers
40 Kaduna
Kwara
Lagos
0
Bayelsa
Rivers Akwa Ibom
Abia
Bayelsa
Kaduna
Abia Delta
Delta
Lagos
Akwa Ibom
20
Rivers State Harcourt because of the lack of career opportunities. Ikwerre: There were reports of violent crime and corruption, among other issues.
•
•
There were several cases of police officers stopping cars and demanding bribes.
•
Two bank robberies were reported in which several people were killed.
•
Skilled workers are reportedly leaving Port
There were reports of a governor forcefully taking land without compensating land owners.
Port Harcourt: Police corruption, robbery and human flight were reported.
Obio/Akpor: Robbery, violent crime and child abuse were reported.
•
Ikwerre Obio/ Akpor
A family of four, including a pregnant woman, were burned to death in a house fire after a tanker exploded near their home.
•
Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni
A mentally disabled man was beaten and killed by crowd of people at an intersection after he stood in the middle of the road.
•
Rivers
Ah o a Eastd a
Rivers is located in the South-South region, between Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Primarily due to oil, Rivers boasts one of Nigeria’s largest state economies, yet the benefits of this rarely trickle down to citizens. With 41 reports, Rivers had the largest number of reports during this period. Within Rivers State, the Local Government Area with the most reported incidents was Port Harcourt with 18 reports, followed by Ikwerre with 6 reports, Obio/Akpor, Ahoada East, Khana, Ogba/Egbma/Ndoni with 2 reports, and Gokana and Eleme with 1 report respectively.
Armed robbers killed three policemen after stealing money from a vehicle they had stopped.
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Port Harcourt Gokana
Khana
Analysis: State-by-State
•
A five year old was reportedly flogged to death by her stepmother.
Ahoada East: Human flight and child abuse was reported.
•
•
The Ogani women in Khana protested against the government’s acquisition of their land.
•
A councilor reportedly paid a group of young boys to beat a carpenter to death. He has since been arrested.
A large number of young people are leaving their communities to wealthier areas.
Khana: There were reports of protests and violent crime.
•
•
A community chief was arrested for raping a ten year-old girl. He was released after reportedly bribing police.
A 13 year-old girl was reportedly raped by a man who had escaped from prison.
forceful
Gokana and Eleme: Organized crime and child abuse was reported.
Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni: The mother of a State Assembly member was abducted.
Akwa Ibom State Akwa Ibom
Akwa Ibom State had the second most reports for this period with 17 incident reports. Many of these reports relate to the child abuse, kidnappings and corruption surrounding local elections. The largest number of incident reports came from the capital of Akwa Ibom, Uyo, which had 5 reports, followed by Etinan, Esit Eket and Ikot Ekpene with 2 reports, and Ikot Abasi, Ibeno and Udung Uko with 1 report, respectively.
Ikot Ekpene
Etinan
Uyo
Udung Uko
Uyo: Most the reports concerned robbery, kidnappings and child abuse.
• Ibeno
Six men broke into a house and robbed it, threatening to rape the occupants.
Esit Eket
•
A senior council chair was kidnapped and only released after a ransom was paid.
Etinan: Child abuse and corruption were reported.
•
A ten year old boy was found living on his own after he was abandoned by his parents. He had been living alone for five years.
•
An aspiring councillor reported that her supporters were chased from polling booths and votes were faked to ensure she
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lost the primary round. Esit Eket: Protests and land disputes were reported.
•
A group of women blocked access to a gas company in protest of the negative effect the company had on their livelihoods.
•
Two gunman shot and wounded several people during a land dispute between two communities.
Ikot Ekpene: There were reports concerning corruption surrounding the local elections. One candidate reportedly won the primaries because of her relationship with Akwa Ibom’s first lady. Another female candidate reported foul play on behalf of the community elders and chiefs. Ibeno: Gunmen reportedly attacked a Mobil oil production site. Udung Uko: There was a report detailing an incident in which a women gained the majority of the votes in a local election, but another candidate was announced the winner.
Analysis: State-by-State
Delta State Delta is located in the South-South region of Nigeria, next to Edo and Rivers States. Delta is the second major oil producing state after Rivers, and boasts many other natural resources. Many of the reports relate to cult violence and other violent crime. There were 13 reports for Delta for this period. The Local Government Areas with the most reports were Warri South, with 6 reports, followed by Oshimilli with 3 reports, and Ughelli North and Uvwie with 1 report each. Warri South: There were reports concerning robbery and violent crime, especially between cult gangs.
•
A community youth leader, in an attack against a cult group, reportedly shot and killed 14 people. Many of those who were killed were innocent spectators, including a 12 year-old girl. The shooter was freed from prison after he bribed a policeman.
•
A cult leader was shot dead by an opposing
•
Robbery
incidents
have
reportedly
Delta
increased.
•
The Commissioner of Health was accused of hitting a female nurse, which led to a nurses’ strike.
Oshimili South: An explosion was reported in an urban area. A group of people reportedly used dynamite to blow up the base of a cell tower. Ughelli North: There were reports of cattle rustling. The same youths involved in this were also accused of stopping cars for bribes. Uvwie: Tension was reported within the Ekpan Development Committee, a committee responsible for the economic and development affairs of the community. The leaders reportedly tried to amend the community constitution without following the correct process, causing concern among community elites.
cult in Warri South.
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Oshimili South
Warri South
Uvwie Ughelli North
UNLocK Nigeria
Timeline
Timeline: 2011 October
November
December Bayelsa PDP Gubernatorial Primaries
Akwa Ibom: Women in Edo community of Esit Eket blocked the access road to a gas processing facility
Abia: Several women were arrested by police after peacefully protesting the rape of a student at the state university.
Bayelsa: Five people were killed during cult clashes. Residents alleged the incident could be related to the upcoming gubernatorial election.
Akwa Ibom: Gunmen reportedly attacked a Mobile vessel.
Bayelsa: Four people killed in cult violence days prior to the primaries. Delta: A former CPP governorship candidate was arrested, shot, and left for dead at a police station. Rivers: Several policemen reportedly killed by armed robbers in an attack on a bullion van.
Akwa Ibom: Semi-skilled workers of oil/gas companies protested the lack of local employment. Delta: Protesters reportedly locked workers out of the Delta State Oil Producing Area Development Commission for two days. Rivers: Multiple armed robberies reportedly left several people dead. Rivers: Mother of state assembly deputy majority leader abducted.
Timeline: 2012 January
February Occupy Nigeria Protests
March
Bayelsa Gubernatorial Elections
Delta: Violence reported between Fulani nomads and community members.
Bayelsa: A surge in cult violence kills several, particularly in Amassoma.
Rivers: The Nigerian government removed the fuel subsidy leading to ten days of protests.
Delta: Cult violence reported.
Rivers: There is a reported increase of police extorting money from taxi drivers.
April
Lagos: A flood left many families homeless and without property.
Rivers: Multiple cases of sexual violence and child abuse reported.
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Rainy Season Akwa Ibom PDP Primary Kaduna Bomb Abia: The National Union of Local Government Employees (NULGE) complained of harassment from the AntiTerror Squad.
Akwa Ibom: Female councillorship aspirants reported foul play in the PDP primaries in Uruan, Ikot Ekpene, and Ikot Abasi.
Delta: Increased numbers of abductions reported. Head of anti-kidnapping squad arrested in conjunction with the surge in abductions.
Kaduna: A bomb was set off by Boko Haram killing over fifty people.
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Rivers: Guns were reportedly fired between Fulani herdsmen and community members in Ubima.
UNLocK Nigeria
Conclusion
Looking Ahead From the point of view of some observers, the threat posed by insecurity in Nigeria is much reduced. The Amnesty Program in the Niger Delta has brought down attacks on oil facilities. And for all the horror posed by Boko Haram in the North, those militants have not been able to interrupt business to a degree that puts much pressure on the state. But from the point of view of human security, the threat of violence continues unabated. Unfortunately, the government does not have as much incentive to deal with human security as it does threats against the state. When the government’s budget is not dependent on a broad tax base, (oil and gas make up 80 percent of government revenue) there is less accountability with respect to the concerns of the average person. In the Niger Delta, militants are no longer attacking state assets. However, youth are still being recruited into cult groups at an alarming rate, particularly in Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa states. These cult groups serve as a gateway into worse forms of criminality including abductions, murders, bank robberies, political thuggery, and intracommunal violence.
According to police reports, in 2011 there were over 350 cases of abduction in Delta State alone. Incidents reported by the UNLocK network in Nigeria speak to continued conflict between and among communities. Within communities, there is violence between the youth and the elders. Youth believe their elders have been coopted by the oil companies. The elders believe the youth are trouble-makers out to undermine traditional values and leadership. Between communities, there is violence over resources and land, often exacerbated by the presence of oil fields, which raise the stakes on these disputes. Cult groups fight with one another. Violence breaks out between the public security forces and criminal groups. In the midst of all of this, Nigerian men, women, and children suffer. Conflict causes prices to rise and incomes to fall. Traditional livelihoods are less profitable than before. People live in fear. Government accountability is low. Traditional governance structures lack the authority and legitimacy to deal with these issues. A relatively free and fair presidential election in 2011 did not solve these problems. There are still problems of accountability, and deep problems of human insecurity. As highlighted
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in this report, between October 2011 and April 2012, there were incidents of election irregularities and violence at the gubernatorial levels in Akwa Ibom and Bayelsa. Frequently reported incidents included political intimidation and vote rigging. There were a number of reports relating to bad policing, including police brutality and corruption. Nigeria remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. The population continues to live in poverty, despite the vast amounts of oil resources in the Niger Delta region. Public services are dismal. Boko Haram has exacerbated tension between Muslims and Christians, northerners and southerners. In the past year, there have even been a few reports of violence against northerners in Rivers and Delta states, as these national-level tensions have escalated. Such violence against northerners in the South-South is unusual and must be watched closely. Perhaps the solution is building social capital among average Nigerians so that spoilers and special interests cannot hijack the agenda of the state. Civil society must be energized and empowered so their voices are heard.
About
The Fund for Peace
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Transnational Threats
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and
Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security international organizations, the military, nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector.
55th Anniversary 1957-2012
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective: to promote sustainable security and the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our programs fall into three primary thematic areas:
approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states. We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers. We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments,
• • •
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment; Transnational Threats; and Sustainable
Development,
Sustainable
Security.
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