Beyond Affordable Rent: What next for housing? 01 November 2011
Richard Blakeway, Greater London Authority Nigel Minto, London Councils David Gooch, Sanctuary Group Dennis Seal, Kier Housing
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Future of London 1st November 2011 Life after the ‘affordable’ rent model?
Nigel Minto. Head of Housing and Planning. London Councils. nigel.minto@londoncouncils.gov.uk
www.londoncouncils.gov.uk
Outline of what I will cover. • Context – Where will we be post 2015. Context - CSR Timeline. • Some questions • Viewpoint - What would boroughs like to see. • Speculation - What might happen after the affordable’ rent model. 3
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The pundits predictions on 2015. • ‘2015…The Queen has fled ‘– Daily Mail • ‘Blackouts could hit Britain by 2015’, says National Grid chief - Daily Telegraph • Britain 'faces fuel shortages and dearer food by 2015’ – Scotsman • ‘Student loans treble to £70bn’ – Economist • UK hospitality can create a further 236,000 jobs by 2015 – UK hospitality association
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2015 The good news The UK will be hosting the 2015 Canoe Salom World Championships
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CSR/Delivery timeline
March 2014? Last opportunity to influence 2015 CSR
October 2010 CSR Announced
February 2011 Affordable Rent programme bids open
May 2011 Affordable Rent programme bids close
Sept/Nov 2011 Affordable Rent programme contract signing phase
October 2014? CSR Announced
February 2015? Affordable Rent programme bids open
May 2015? Affordable Rent programme bids close
Sept/Nov 2015? Affordable Rent programme contracts signed
Dec/Feb 2015 Practical completions and GLA payment to RPs
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Where will we be in 2015 – Some speculation on the challenges o Increased levels of overcrowding o Increased levels of homelessness – Discharges into PRS further from ‘home’ borough, longer stays in B&B o Mobility – Increased demand and use of a London wide mobility scheme, moving from an employment focus to addressing other forms of housing need. o Reduced and older access to owner occupation normalisation that owner occupation has peaked in London?
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Where will we be in 2015 – Some speculation o Increasing pressure to counter growing squatting threat o Increasing pressure for individuals to secure ‘unorthodox’ housing – Garages, sheds etc o Wider access to RTB reduces what is left of Borough and RP sub market social rent o Established ‘dual income’ approach to housing access and waiting lists o Housing needs of younger housing households increasing moving centre stage
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Where will we be in 2015 – Some speculation • The exact date and amount of the CSR settlement Will London maintain its share of the national pot? • The level of remaining RP borrowing capacity. • How successful has the government been in encouraging ‘institutional investment’ into the market. • How successful has the government been in providing tax breaks to encourage investment in new supply. • Have borough prudential borrowing restraints been relaxed.
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What would boroughs like to see • Having the ability to meet/facilitate a range of housing needs and aspirations • Retaining the equity of their land and property assets • An increase the supply of affordable housing supply – that meets their demand side needs • More influence over profile of what schemes are delivered within their locality. • More influence over the nature and level of RP disposals • Maximising the amount of homes whose remit is within the UC cap • Maximising the % of family sized homes
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Post 2015 – The lights on the horizon? • The options – Return to NAHP programme - Highly unlikely to happen – Affordable rent programme - similar to as now – Hybrid programme with funding top ups via local authority – Hybrid programme ‘reengineered’ by the GLA (and possibly the boroughs) – A completely new RSL sourced model? – A completely new RSL/LB sourced model?
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Post 2015 – The lights on the horizon? • Hybrid programme with funding top ups via local authority • • • • • • • •
CIL top up New homes bonus top Use of TIFs Cheap land/deferred equity Borough cash – prudential borrowing/HRA surplus Borough/RSL Bond issue? Borough/RSl equity fund? Premium market rent vehicles – providing subsidy for below market rent new build • Use of borough pension funding
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Hybrid programme ‘reengineered’ by the GLA (and possibly the boroughs) • Hybrid programme ‘reengineered’ by the GLA (and possibly the boroughs) • (London) Affordable rent programme part 2 from 2013/14 • Mayoral housing and property development company • GLA Housing Bank (subsidised cash) • Deferred equity on ex LDA/HCA land (subsided land) • Redirection of Mayoral CIL (post 2018/19)
Beyond Affordable Rent: What next for housing? 01 November 2011
Richard Blakeway, Greater London Authority Nigel Minto, London Councils David Gooch, Sanctuary Group Dennis Seal, Kier
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