FUNDING AND DELIVERING DEVELOPMENT AND RENEWAL Retail led regeneration 31st March 2011
Date Month Date Month
31 March 2011
Retail led Regeneration in London Retail Trends
Stuart Morley, Head of Research
gva.co.uk
Factors affecting Vitality and Viability of Town Centres
• • • • •
Economic Trends Planning & Development Trends Retailer Trends Property Market Trends Effect on Town Centres of new Development
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Economic Trends • Demographic trends – Population growth, geographical differences and ageing of population
• Income and expenditure trends – Strong growth over recent decades, but weaker outlook
• Internet – When will growth level off and what effects will it have?
• Mobility – Huge past rise in car ownership, but are we nearing saturation? Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Population growth 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%
Yo rk sh ire
1998-2008
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
En gl an d W al es Sc N ot or la th nd er n Ire la nd
U K
N or th Ea N st or th an d W Th es t e H um Ea be st r M i d W la es nd tM s Ea id la st nd of s En gl an d Lo nd on So ut h Ea So st ut h W es t
0.0%
2008-2018
gva.co.uk
Expenditure per head growth 7%
Annual average growth
6% 5% 4%
forecast (Experian)
3% 2% 1% 0% 1961-1971
1971-1981
1981-1991
Convenience Goods
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
1991-2001
2001-2007
2010-2020
Comparison Goods
gva.co.uk
Online annual spend per head 1200 1058 977
Annual Spend per Head (ÂŁ)
1000 800 600
560
606
653
691
745
794
850
905
400 200 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
gva.co.uk
Car ownership 100 90 80 70 60 %
50 40 30 20 10
19 56 19 61 19 66 19 71 19 76 19 81 19 86 19 91 19 96 20 01 20 06 20 11 20 16 20 21 20 26 20 31 20 36 20 41
19 51
0
0 cars
1 car
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
2 cars
3+ cars
gva.co.uk
Planning and development trends
• Planning policy – – – – – –
PPG6, PPS6 and PPS4 New national planning guidance Localism and planning Agenda for growth competition Return of EZs
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Planning and development trends
• Floor space stock changes – Town centre and edge/out-of-centre development – Town centre development by size of town – Mixed use schemes in town centres
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Town Centre and edge/out-of-centre development 80 70 60
Percentage of newly built retail floorspace in ATCAs (without 300m buffer) Percentage of newly built retail floorspace in ATCAs (with 300m buffer) Trendline: Percentage of newly built retail floorspace in ATCAs (without 300m buffer) Trendline: Percentage of newly built retail floorspace in ATCAs (with 300m buffer)
50 40 30 20 10
19 7 19 1 7 19 2 7 19 3 7 19 4 7 19 5 7 19 6 7 19 7 7 19 8 7 19 9 8 19 0 8 19 1 8 19 2 8 19 3 8 19 4 8 19 5 8 19 6 8 19 7 8 19 8 8 19 9 9 19 0 9 19 1 9 19 2 9 19 3 9 19 4 9 19 5 9 19 6 9 19 7 9 19 8 9 20 9 0 20 0 0 20 1 0 20 2 0 20 3 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 07
0
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Town Centre Retail Development (ex London) 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000
(sq m)
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 1960-1969 0 - 50,000
1970-1979 50,000-75,000
1980-1989 75,000-100,000
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
1990-1999 100,000 -250,000
2000-2009 250,000+
gva.co.uk
Town centre development activity
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Retailer Trends • Consolidation of retail activity – Decrease in number of units – Increase in size of units
• Consolidation into larger town centres • Increase in range of goods sold – Larger unit size required – Food stores
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Change in size of stores
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Property market trends • Out performance by retail warehousing – Retail warehousing compared to town centres – Stand alone retail warehouse units – Retail parks – Fashion parks
• Rental growth by different size of town centre Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Effect of new development on town centres • Could all retail expenditure growth be accommodated in town centres? • How can vehicle growth be accommodated in town centres? • How can all leisure and office development be accommodated in town centres? • Problems for historic centres • Effect of out-of-centre development on town centres • Effect of new town centre development on other town centres, particularly in London Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
London’s Major Retail Centres & new development
Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
Recommendations • • • •
Improve town centre environment Unlock stalled developments Limit out-of-centre development Plan proactively for new development + Action • Improve town centre management on a day-to-day basis • Support for local businesses • Maximise accessibility Retail 31 March Short Trends presentation title2011 here / November 2010
gva.co.uk
FUNDING AND DELIVERING DEVELOPMENT AND RENEWAL Retail led regeneration 31st March 2011
Future of London Retail Led Regeneration in Barnet - Brent Cross Cricklewood
Stewart Murray – Director of Planning, Housing and Regeneration TonyBrent Westbrook – Principal Project Manager Cross Cricklewood
A New Town Centre
Barnet: Locational context
London’s Growth Corridors
Growth areas in Barnet
The opportunity - about the area
• • • • • • • • •
250 Acres Key gateway location Bordered by heavy infrastructure Very few connections Retail units and parking Low density industry and housing Poorly landscaped open spaces Few community facilities Needs major investment
The vision
• • • • • • • • • • • •
7,500 homes, 27,000 jobs 14 million sq. ft. total (1.3m sq m) 4 million sq. ft. office district Transformed BX Shopping Centre Strong connection across the A406 Exceptional parks and open spaces New mainline train station New Brent Cross bus station 3 new schools, new health facilities Sports and leisure centre New bridges and road junctions Naturalised River Brent
Contributing to London’s future
• Long neglected part of London • London Plan addressing the suburbs • Supportive strategic and local planning policy • Massive public transport investment including highway improvements • New train station & infrastructure • Parks and community facilities • Staged development over 20 years
Conclusions
• Scheme addresses long term problems affecting a very wide area • New Town Centre – homes, shops, jobs, transport, community, environment • An ambitious and comprehensive approach that will transform this important area
Town Centre Business Forums
• To enable businesses to take responsibility for marketing and promotion of their town centres • To provide a conduit for local businesses to inform policy development • To help local businesses work together • Currently established in Edgware, Chipping Barnet and Finchley Church End
Our next event in this series is on 10 May on delivering localism through the planning system. Visit www.futureoflondon.org.uk for more information.