Citizens bringing the future forward by Futures Centre

Citizens bringing the future â&#x2013;¸â&#x2013;¸forward How can we unlock the power of citizen-led innovation to catalyse the shift towards a sustainable Europe?

Where it started: â&#x20AC;&#x153;â&#x20AC;ŚInvestigate the creative, innovative and entrepreneurial roles of users* in developing novel sustainable products, services and systems (Sustainable Lifestyles 2.0).â&#x20AC;? *Our shorthand = citizen innovation

Citizen innovation for sustainability, workshop visual map, February 2016, London.

About Forum for the Future

Forum for the Future:

Forum for the Future is an independent non-profit that works globally with business, government and others to solve complex sustainability challenges. We believe it is critical to transform the key systems we rely on to shape a brighter future and innovate for long-term success.

Overseas House

We have a 20-year track record of working in partnership with pioneering partners; advising and challenging organisations such as Unilever, Pepsico, Skanska, Akzo Nobel and Telefonica O2.

19–23 Ironmonger Row London, EC1V 3QN United Kingdom Registered charity number: 1040519 Company limited by guarantee in the UK and Wales: 2959712 Date of publication: February 2017

Find out more at www.forumforthefuture. org, and find us on Facebook and Twitter. About EU Innovate

Project partners:

EU-InnovatE stands for ‘End User Integration, Innovation & Entrepreneurship’. It is an EU-funded research project that investigates the innovative and entrepreneurial roles of end users to shape a green EU-economy.

Technische Universtität München (TUM), Aalto University School of Business, Aarhus University, ABIS – The Academy of Business in Society, ALTIS – Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Cranfield University, Copenhagen Business School, ESADE Business School, Forum for the Future, Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Kozminski University, Politecnico di Milano, University of Amsterdam, University of Technology Eindhoven.

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 613194. Project dates: 1 January 2014 - 31 December 2016 Report authors: Gemma Adams, Corina Angheloiu, Louise Armstrong

Project website: eu-innovate.com

Contents

1. Introduction

The world is changing and so are citizens

How we developed the 2050 scenarios

How you can use the scenarios

Lessons from 2050

What roles are people playing in creating change?

Four scenarios for a Sustainable Europe in 2050

2. The four scenarios

Introducing the scenarios

The rhythm and pace of change on the pathways to 2050

Singular Super Champions

Governing the Commons

Local Loops

Empathetic Communities

3. Scenario comparisons

4. Insights from these future scenarios

How are citizens contributing to change in the scenarios?

How we used the scenarios

What are the implications for you?

5. Youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re invited! Join us for further experiments...

6. Bibliography

Fall of the Iron Curtain

Continuous urbanisation, Mexico City

Middle East unrest

Tar sands extraction

24hr culture

Gene editing frontier

Silicon Valley

Global supply chains

Geopolitical shifts

Rising inequality

The weight of the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;cloudâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

New extraction frontiers

The world is changing and so are citizens As individuals and communities, we are finding ways to embody our dreams and transform our lives. Can we use this momentum to tackle social and environmental problems at their root? We often talk about ‘creating change’ when, in fact, it’s happening around us all the time. What we’re really calling for is a different kind of change: a mindful approach that can tackle complex, dynamic issues like climate change, ecosystem decline and social inequality, and find new ways forward. Across all economic, social, political and technological spheres, and at all scales, there are dynamic patterns that govern the status quo, made up of norms, beliefs, relationships, rules, pressures and incentives. If we can grasp how these ever-changing systems behave, and if we can interact with them at the right time, we can try to influence the nature and direction of our unfolding future.

As people and organisations, we all participate in these dynamics. The question is how we can deliberately affect them by understanding where we can apply our influence. That’s the aim of this document: to help people and organisations explore how they can use their agency to help bring about systemic change in society, and the nature of changes needed to put society on a sustainable footing. Our insights are drawn from four scenarios for the year 2050, each describing a European society which is meeting the environmental boundaries and social conditions needed for sustainability in three decades’ time. The scenarios come with descriptions of the cultural changes and new forms of governance, education, finance that emerge to make this future society possible. This document gives a glimpse into four imagined worlds in 2050, allowing us to explore possibilities for the future that perhaps only need to be acknowledged to be unlocked. The four scenarios offer insights into the extent of transformation needed for sustainable lifestyles to be the norm, as well as the roles that different actors can play in resisting and contributing to systemic change. The questions they raise can help guide our experimentation today. 7

How we developed the 2050 scenarios The scenarios explored in this report are just one outcome of a project led by EU InnovatE to enhance understanding of the ways end users and entrepreneurs can advance innovation to shape sustainable lifestyles and a green economy in Europe. The project ran from 2014-2016, funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Program, and delivered by a pan-European consortium of 14 leading academic and non academic partners. Forum for the Future brought ‘futures’ thinking and processes to EU InnovatE, to explore the role of users, entrepreneurs and citizens in enabling a sustainable Europe. Four 2050 scenarios were at the heart of this. ‘Futures’ is structured thinking about change and its implications to improve decisions made today. Thinking about the future helps identify risks and opportunities, inform strategy development, and stimulate innovation. Futures approaches and scenarios can benefit a wide variety of stakeholders and organisations because it: • Can be used to build internal organisational capacity for long-term and strategic thinking, a key tenet for people and organisations looking to thrive in the future; • Is a powerful systemic tool that can be used to help people explore uncertainty, change, and interconnectedness ; • Gives people a mandate, the motivation and the confidence to change current practices so that they are more sustainable; • Creates a safe space for dialogue among people in multidisciplinary roles, and an opportunity for stakeholder engagement; • Forms a useful basis for generating longer-term and more sustainable 8

strategy, and new and disruptive innovations; • Challenges existing norms, helps prioritise issues and projects, and contributes to project and program design. The future explorations led by Forum for the Future were just one of nine different lines of inquiry EU InnovatE explored. We built on scenarios from a previous EU-funded project, SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 20501, expanding them to delve more deeply into the role of users, entrepreneurs and citizens in enabling sustainable lifestyles in Europe. We did this through a series of workshops engaging diverse stakeholders from business, academia, civil society and policy, as well as a network of FutureShapers: an informal pan-European network of innovators and social entrepreneurs. To guide our analysis and the further development of the scenarios, we applied the Multi-Level Perspective on sociotechnological transitions developed by Frank Geels and the Horizons Framework2, an aggregated framework drawn from a range of sustainable development models. This framework was produced as a result of research projects delivered by Forum for the Future with InnovateUK and Aviva investors, and tested and proven with stakeholder groups and leading thinkers as a practical tool for the development of sustainability strategy and innovation. Notes: 1. SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 was a European Commission funded project, developed between 2011 - 2012. The original scenarios were developed by Demos Helsinki (demoshelsinki.fi/en/ julkaisut/from-local-loops-to-global-championsscenarios-for-sustainable-lifestyles-2050-2/). 2. Horizons (horizons.innovateuk.org) uses an Earth system framework to measure sustainability. It goes beyond ‘triple bottom line’ indicators, which assume a continuation of the extant paradigm of mass consumption and growth and seek to minimise the negative externalities of growth.

How you can use the scenarios Each scenario depicts a radically different future to the one we inhabit today. While not predictions, they offer plausible and possible futures, reflecting both the desirable and less desirable outcomes of most future trends. None is presented as better or worse than the others. Taken together, they offer stimulus to develop robust, future-proof strategies. Use them to help provoke conversation and challenge assumptions about the future, and the role citizens can play in enabling radical change. We invite you to explore them in two ways, here in this report. The first is through detailed scenario descriptions that delve into the state of wealth, health, the economy, governance, and the environment in the four worlds of 2050. These descriptions explore the myths and values that are important in each world: the ones that drive sustainability. And they also explore the shadow side of these future worlds. They include future artefacts, personas and an outline of the journey to 2050, to bring each scenario to life. The second way is through a set of scenario comparisons which allow you to compare and contrast them in terms of their cultural content, governance modes, economy, what identity and status means in each world, how people relate and how you might characterise lifestyles in each world - as well as using popular analogies. In all the scenarios, the citizen stands out as a powerful and influential agent in shaping our future. We can observe different potential shifts from people behaving as passive consumers to citizens innovating for themselves and beyond. This change begins with each of us, as individuals: our own motivations will determine the role we play in change.

and services, building networks and placebased initiatives, developing new modes of governance and decision-making, and challenging established paradigms by developing and acting on new beliefs, cultures and understandings. How this plays out in practice will be locationspecific, but some common roles emerge (read about these on page 12). The scenarios are a great way to challenge your thinking, stretch your ideas, test your strategies or approaches and start a different conversation about the future. The materials can be used as stimulus in short exercises, in workshops, and as part of longer strategy or programmatic design processes. As well as the written scenarios, we’ve developed an interactive game to help you inhabit these future worlds. Here are some of the benefits they offer: • A tool to build internal organisational capacity for long-term and strategic thinking, key to resilience • An introduction to systems thinking, and a way to confront people with the ideas of uncertainty, change, and interconnectedness • A mandate and motivation to change current practices so that they are more sustainable • A safe space for dialogue among people in multidisciplinary roles • An opportunity for stakeholder engagement • A basis for generating disruptive innovations challenging existing norms • A means to prioritise issues and projects, contributing to project and program design.

Citizens are increasingly innovating their own lifestyles - but also influencing wider systems. They are creating new products 9

Lessons from 2050 What do the scenarios tell us about the change needed for a sustainable society? Here are three resounding lessons: 1. A society needs to self-regulate and evolve to sustain itself through change, and this rests on individuals’ ability to make changes to their own lives, work and communities. If we can’t mindfully manage our own behaviour, and if we’re not able to respond to feedback or work through points of conflict in a constructive way, then more sophisticated processes to drive change on a global scale are unlikely to emerge or to be sustained. 2. Establishing a healthier relationship to resources and living systems means changing paradigms across society as a whole, including our growth-oriented economy. 3. There are many possible, unpredictable routes towards these future scenarios, and it will be impossible to control the path ahead. More changes will emerge as we go towards these futures, and so our approach must be to sense, respond, learn and adapt to them.

What did we learn about the role of citizens in accelerating change? All actors are part of these dynamic processes: big business, start-up companies, policy-makers, government institutions and civil society organisations. As we look to the future, digital technologies afford individuals an increasing ability to act together and collaborate with organisations, accelerating the scale and pace of change.

In our scenarios, citizen innovators drive some of the most radical changes on the pathways. How? By embodying the change they want to see in the world and experimenting to realise it in their own lives. Free from institutional and market constraints, citizen innovators play a disruptive role by introducing fundamentally new ways of doing things that turn conventional thinking upside down. Yet as a group, citizens are seldom recognised as part of the ‘innovation landscape’ today, and their role is little understood. How can we unleash the power of citizens to act as a global community of change-agents, to help transform our world?

What did we learn about unlocking the power of citizen innovation? Seven key insights emerged that can help us accelerate citizen innovation, and these also raised some important questions and prompts for action. 1. The ability to ‘self-regulate’ is a key difference between the societies described in the four scenarios, and our society today. Could the ability to self-regulate be the distinguishing capability of a society that’s on a sustainable footing?

2. It’s vital to put in place the decisionmaking processes, forms of governance and other social capabilities to go on improving environmental and social outcomes, as part of the transition to a sustainable society. What are the evolved forms of governing and decision making processes we might see come to life?

3. The social conditions of society are central to the transition to a sustainable society and to sustainable lifestyles, but they are very hard to measure, manage and predict. Should all change efforts begin with our mindsets, lifestyles and working practices, as the root to dealing with wider social, environmental and economic problems?

4. Changes to governance and decisionmaking are wrapped up with wider cultural changes in society as a whole - including challenges to capitalism and democracy. Fundamental transformation is required for sustainability. How can we influence change towards a new paradigm? How can we imagine paradigms that seem â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;unimaginableâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;?

5. We need to change what we measure to provide the right incentives - but radical, social changes are difficult to quantify. What should we be measuring? How will new metrics affect policy-making?

6. There is an expanding role for citizens and civil society - acting on their own and in fresh combinations with public sector organisations and business - to drive change. What support do citizens need to use their influence for positive impact? What can enable them to tackle some of the underlying problems of our world and to avoid perpetuating them?

7. The mindset, values and motivation of individuals to innovate over the course of their lifetimes becomes increasingly important in influencing social and cultural change. How can we best enable innovators to live the change they want to create? How can we build our personal resilience as citizen innovators?

What roles are people playing in creating change? Citizens play diverse roles in processes of innovation that play to their own and othersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; strengths.

concepts. Increases the likelihood of successful implementation.

The more complex and uncertain the challenges we want to tackle, the more collaborative and creative our response must be. This calls for new understandings and a new language for innovation that replaces the idea of the lone hero battling the odds with a more holistic view of the contributions needed to bring ideas that challenge norms into reality, and to create impact at scale.

Educator: â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Normalisesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; new ways of thinking and being. Sensitises, educates and prepares key players so that they are able to respond positively to the innovation and the social and environmental issues it addresses.

Here are some of the roles identified by Aalto University1 through the EU-Innovate research. They are often held by different people and organisations working together.

Which of the following roles have you encountered or played? Stimulator: Calls for ideas or offers initial funding to resolve a social or environmental challenge. Sets the process of innovation in motion and catalyses others to do it. Initiator: Inspires and/or generates ideas for innovation. Likely to be active throughout the innovation process. Broker or mediator: Enables and facilitates meaningful collaboration between people and organisations in order to further the innovation. Involved in organising, negotiating and eliciting feedback. Concept refiner: Contributes expertise to the process of testing and developing ideas to form viable, feasible and desirable 12

Legitimator: Provides assistance by building credibility and trust in the process and in the innovation itself.

Context creator: Creates an enabling context to bring innovations into reality. Includes, not limited to, changing policies and the regulatory context. Impact amplifier: Promotes and enables adoption, engagement, growth, replication and the diffusion of innovation. Seeks to increase its sustainability impacts. Notes: The stakeholder roles were developed as part of a work package led by Aalto University. Forum for the Future tested them in the context of the future scenarios through different workshops with citizen innovators during 2016. For more information, please see: Goodman, J., Korsunova, A., & Halme, M., (2017) Our Collaborative Future: Activities and Roles of Stakeholders in Sustainability-Oriented Innovation. Business Strategy and the Environment. Wiley online DOI: 10.1002/bse.1941

Singular Super

Governing

Champions

The Commons

Four scenarios for a Sustainable Europe in 2050

Local Loops

Empathetic Communities

Introducing the scenarios

The future scenarios explore four contrasting visions for a sustainable Europe in 2050. What they have in common is that they each responds to some big trends driving change in society - such as the increasing impacts of climate change, resource scarcity and demographic changes - and each has met the environmental boundaries and social conditions for sustainability1 - for example, related to climate change, biodiversity loss and life expectancy. In all of them, the mass of resource consumption is, on average, under 8,000kg per person per annum, a third of average resource consumption is today (the figure for Europe in 2012 was 40,000Kg)2. Each scenario paints a picture of an alternative journey to these outcomes in 2050, and describes how we’re living in society. It’s important to note that none of these scenarios represents - or attempts to represent - a utopian ideal in 2050. They describe what it might mean for us socially, to reverse and stabilise the rapid decline in the quality of living ecosystems that characterises our world today. Arguably, the lifestyles they depict are no better or worse than our experience today - simply different - and, while minimum requirements for socially sustainable development are met, other measures have declined. They are imperfect societies that have seen big shifts in our relationship with the planet and with each other. On the following pages, you’ll be exploring the four different scenarios. For each one, we show the unique combination of events that coalesce to impact the shape of society, personas, glimpses from the future, as well as covering key areas 14

such as identity, health, governance, environment and the economy. Notes: 1. This draws on six of the original nine planetary boundaries in the framework developed by a group of earth system and environmental scientists led by Johan Rockström from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, and on population growth and human development indices based on statistics and research by UNDP and UN Population Division. 2. Material footprint per person is based on the work of Michael Lettenmeier, Stefan Bringezu, Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek et. al from the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy on a safe and sustainable level of natural resource use. The material footprint thus serves as a tool to comprehensively direct lifestyles to levels within planetary boundaries as described e.g. by Johan Rockström and other scientists from the Stockholm Resilience Centre. Population growth and human development indices used are based on statistics and research by UNDP and UN Population Division. For more information on the quantitative indicators, please visit: sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/ D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf

The scenarios axes Singular Super Champions

Governing the Commons

CItizen = Economic unit

Citizen = Node

“I believe that if I optimise myself, I am helping society.”

“Life is what I - and we - make it.”

Automated

Globally oriented

Transparent

Virtual Diverse Participative

Competitive

Global

Self-organising

Institution-led

Top down governance

Bottom up governance

Local Loops

Empathetic Communities

Citizen = European

Citizen = Human being

“I am proud to help make my city region flourishing and resilient.”

“Living is heart-to-heart connection.””

Craftsmanship

Locally oriented

Subsisting

Secure

Intelligent

Synergistic

Conscious

European

Neighbourhood

Devolved

Cooperative

The rhythm and pace of change on the pathways to 2050 In each scenario a unique combination of events coalesce and influence the shape of society. The rhythm and pace of change are different for each of them:

The last fossil fuel subsidies are cut

Consumers invite smart services to run the minutiae of their lives

Sharp decline in trust and investment in A strong belief that government “technology will save us” Business drives global data transparency standards Shift of investment to ecological production methods

Fear of resource insecurity and permanent zero growth

Singular Super Champions

Civil unrest prompted by climate Job losses from disasters traditional Cost of living soars, manufacturing wages and pensions fail hit a high to keep pace

Riots and protests break out as a sharp rise in energy prices pushes up inflation Fear of a ‘return to austerity’

Governments tackle the looming gap between energy supply and demand by forcing radical, energy efficiency legislation through parliament Governments are forced to look at reforming economic policies and governance structures

Hierarchical institutions are no longer capable of responding to the systemic and interrelated challenges society is facing

A landslide of companies that have failed to adapt go bankrupt

Drastic price shifts force people to start exploring Individuals part of more local and mainstream politics and secure production business who start playing a alternatives role in the organising at a community level

Work and leisure time is blurry as people spend more time in their local Localised value communities networks become more dominant Citizens’ lives are thrown into turmoil

Empathetic Communities Unemployment remains high due to austerity measures on public budgets Governments fail to anticipate the situation. They cannot afford to bail the banks out.

The influence of those working in isolation is recognised to be limited

Financial markets face crisis. Several big banks collapse First of many governments resigns

High price of energy and natural resources affects household budgets

New relationships start to emerge that show a model for human flourishing 16

Education system branded as ‘letting the economy down’

The ‘gig economy’ and ‘micro-work’ describe the emerging European economy

Governing the Commons

Local Loops

Digital DNA services drive a revolution in personal and public health

Break-down in global economy; absence of global financial and political systems; new forms of exchange

People start to experiment with local production of food and energy

Circular economy is fully-instituted and embedded

Economic growth imperative calls certain civil liberties into question

Pressure for efficient growth creates intense competition

Smart living is the norm

Businesses track and charge customers for unreturned waste

A growing global network of individuals calls for citizens to act together to deal with climate change, rising resource prices & equality

Sleep starts to be classed as productive learning time “I believe in the power of the crowd to fight injustices”

Connections between people are enhanced by aspects being algorithm, sensor and data led

Mounting tensions associated with inequality Power coalesces in global, EU and national institutions and businesses

There is an emphasis on virtual not material consumption

Global decentralised networks, flocks and swarms dominate decision making and governance

Identity is made up of a patchwork of affiliations

Peer-to-peer networks initiate a global act for self-surveillance There is a recognition of the need for ongoing social (legal and political) evolution

The economy is dynamically stable and digitally networked, fuelled by cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology People are seeking deeper connections and crave stronger ties; networks with a greater defining the purpose start to emerge

Failure of national government to respond to key challenges

EU launches a ‘Local Loops’ framework of incentives to encourage regions to become self-sufficient in key resources

A strong spine of resources from EU level is provided for all e.g. basic services - utilities, energy, logistics

Strong collaboration within and among guilds; customised local and regional design solutions

High level of trust in expert decision-makers in guilds to represent their members

Pioneering cities track resource flows to protect & manage multiple ‘Local Loops’

Caring & empathetic collective action creates unstoppable forces

“Touch others not with your hands but with your heart”

“I’m a proud European and I’m committed to contributing to making my local region flourish”

United Nations is transformed into United Cities, Towns and Regions Local economies dominate

We are one earth, ever growing and evolving - people identify with other living things

The generation of people who have grown up within the empathy paradigm gain permanent positions in politics, companies and communities 17

Singular Super Champions

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

The pathway to 2050 5 years

Shift of investment into more ecological production methods

Mainstream push for a circular economy

There is a belief that â&#x20AC;&#x153;technology will save usâ&#x20AC;?

Global businesses agree on data transparency standard relating to energy and resource consumption Fossil fuel subsidies are cut and Northern European countries announce they will commision a shared smart grid

30 years

Citizens compete on everything, intelligence, health, energy efficiency

Status and identity comes through material things

Educational reforms move primary education outside of the classroom to improve learning capability 20

Smart living, augmented via technology is the norm

The economy is circular and efficient but is failing to grow

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

15 years

Civil unrest prompted climate change related floods, droughts and food prices

Stocks of natural resources are tracked and monitored using smart sensors and blockchain technology

Health care services provided customised treatment, based on your unique DNA make up

A narrative of efficient growth prevails

Businesses track and charge customers for unreturned products & waste

Sleep is now classed as productive learning time

Social inequality is rising

Strong global, EU and national institutions; centralised power and control 21

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GLOBALLY ORIENTED

Myth: technology will save us Goal: progress through efficient growth Identity: obligation to fulfil oneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s potential. Achievement through tangibility Mindset: mechanistic, rational, logical, data and evidence led Approach: efficient neo-liberal ideology, rational, logical Systemic approach: systems thinking

TOP-DOWN GOVERNANCE

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

2050 Scenario summary This is a hyper-efficient world where many environmental challenges have been fixed by technology solutions, and the availability of data - driven by the high cost of resources. EU-wide policy incentives have made carbon-neutral housing the norm. Homes have gotten smaller and optimise resources due to property taxes and subsidies for construction of small flats. People Live in dense cities, making flexible use of space. Innovation and EU policy has supported the circular economy in which consumers and households are passive players, where resource recovery systems are automated and driven through service contracts. Education is fair, but competitive. Opportunity is based on skill and inherent ability, rather than nationality or social standing; learning is as much a leisure

activity as it is related to work. Health issues, energy demand, waste management and food production are managed and personalised on individuals’ behalf, which allows them to focus time on learning and professional enhancement. There is high trust in business and government to analyse one’s data and recommend decisions big and small on a daily basis. People are too busy and obligated as citizens to manage their personal assets (knowledge, expertise) and to invest time in making low value decisions. It is an equitable society, imposed through high taxation. The state is viewed as a parent, however this is a socially unequal society.

The shadow side of the scenario People might be living for a long time without the pension support they need to have a respectful and dignified old age.

Those who aren’t competitive fall to the back of the line, which creates demonisation of non-University graduates.

The focus on environmental efficiency means that this could become a socially unequal society that can quickly and easily create a 2 tier system whereby selected few are picked up and fast tracked, while those left behind create apathetic ghettos and are denied opportunity.

This society is highly tech and data based, with few options to opt out of the mainstream way of living.

There’s not a meaningful role for everyone in this scenario which means there can be a lack of individual agency to innovate and interact with wider society. Mental health is a key challenge - people feel claustrophobic and trapped by the system but don’t have any ability to influence the direction of their lives as things are so controlled for them.

There is a rise of mega-corporations. There is a push for relations based on genetic compatibility, which could mean a pressure to fit in with body augmentation procedures, and could lead to genetically ‘designed’ children. People who can’t or choose not to fit in with the mainstream could be marginalised. If this society is to continue to be in a sustainable state, it needs to evolve, recognise and tackle social challenges.

Artefact from the future

In this competitive world you would be competing with your peers in many parts of your life. There is a proliferation of apps that allow you to track your progress in comparison with others.

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

Landscape factors Wealth

Wealth means earning enough to live well and contribute to your professional skills and development to enable environmental efficiencies to be made. There is a push to maximise people’s own capacity to learn and achieve; to be high achieving compared with peers. Success is often linked to strong relationships with those in the regime.

Health

In this scenario, people use data to optimise their body’s potential. Sharing data with digital service providers allows their life to be lived as efficiently as possible in terms of wellness, use of time, resources and money.

Economy

The economy is driven by availability of data, growth and competition; environmental efficiencies are fully embedded in society. The power houses of the economy are large companies and institutions with close links to government. Data and trust in the regime / status quo drive economic financial growth and decision making.

Environment

The pursuit of environmental efficiencies is paramount in this scenario. The desire for this is achieved at the expense of social sustainability – it continues to be a very socially unequal society.

Governance

Efficiency is the central organizing principle for society. Competition is a key mechanism in achieving this. Governments and large institutions and businesses make decisions about society; they are highly trusted to work in the best public interest. It is accepted that all outcomes are secondary to the priority of economic efficient growth. Decisions are informed by abundant data. Citizens are comfortable sharing their most private data, mediated through digital platforms that represent the interests of different segments of the population to those in power.

Identity and power

People identify with their nation state and with Europe. People strongly identify with their peers who they fiercely compete with. Your social status informs and dictates your power. Power is concentrated in established multi-national businesses and industries; super entrepreneurs – who start up multiple ventures. An individual citizen’s sphere of power is limited and your lack of it could lead to mental health challenges. 25

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

Singular Super Champions citizens of 2050

These personas are the result of a series of workshops held across Europe in 2015. They start to explore what it might be like to live in this world and expose the differences between the people who thrive in it and the people who resist it.

Their identity

Their innovation

Their obstacles

Their tools

Their passions

Their skills

Sophie, 32, Belgium

Their business captures previously ‘lost’ materials before they reach landfill;

It is difficult to connect different organisations, infrastructures and services;

Recycling companies;

Solving resource scarcity

Building networks

New technologies for tracking and recycling process to achieve zero waste to landfill targets;

Enterprising approach and taking her father’s business legacy forward

Sophie’s extroverted, sociable and reflective; her father worked in the waste industry and she grew up working in his company, Unicore. She studied economics and business. Johan, 36, Copenhagen Johan was one of the earliest children to be hand-picked for a circular economy fastrack programme, but unfortunately couldn’t adjust to his new life away from his family and friends and became introverted. He was eventually expelled and joins the under belly of society, where he’s part of small underground movements like Demand Energy Equality.

Offer households points for recycling materials & behaviours Starting small with 1 waste stream Off grid renewable energy; he hasn’t accepted the lack of data privacy so isn’t eligible for grid energy

By recapturing resources and reducing households’ material footprint, the business could perversely encourage more consumption. Lack of access to funding Corporate opposition and barriers

Material passports enabled by IOT

Support, shelter and funding from other local isolated groups

Guerilla space to scale off the No foothold in the radar market due to top down ownership of resources

Upholding social values and community innovation in the face of huge multi-nationals running every aspect of people’s lives

Correct weighting of materials/ points Staying on top of emerging technologies and disruptive trends

Electrical engineering skills Peer to peer networks of collaborators who are also resisting mainstream types of provision

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

Role of citizens along the pathway to 2050 A rational society in which there is mutual obligation to fulfil one’s potential as an asset to the economy. People choose to enlist the help of trusted service providers to help them run their lives and make decisions. Virtual and real world services are highly attuned and personalised to customers’ emotional state and character profiles – reinforcing the trust and responsibility vested in them. There is an acceptance of data-driven decisions and data sharing; understood to be for personal and collective benefit. Individuals voluntarily provide their data to this as a way of participating in society and they defer day-to-day decisions and planning to complex algorithms. Societies are quite homogeneous as a result of globally controlled, technology-led innovation by business and government.

People are comfortable with this; and reinforced by social structures. What’s the role of citizen innovators? Aspiring entrepreneurs with digital data & UX skills willing take part in and compete for places on business accelerators, corporate venturing or open innovation competitions. People wherever they are provide huge amount of data about their life and movements to allow for environmental efficiencies to be gleaned In 2050 people are generally happy for business and government to manage their lives for them. Customers typically play a passive role except where they are defending against real (and perceived) transgressions by business and government.

How and why do people innovate? • Nimble entrepreneurs are able to move fast to take advantage of EU policy regime; driving a circular economy, efficiency and growth. • First-mover consumer segment work with each other and with big business to refine first generation modular products and service-based contracts for the mainstream market; to test new utility service models; to pioneer data-driven food and health choices. • Data crunchers, intermediaries and thought-leaders; online communities and political figures who are keen to ensure that individuals’ information is not misused, and can be accessed to support positive living. • Within the scenario itself, there is a key role for these experts in enabling citizens to exercise their civil rights against big players and acting as

trusted digital service intermediaries that act on customers’ behalf to share/ respond to their data. • Culture makers: those in marketing and PR, and programme makers that made ‘material light’ consumption desirable - working independently and in collaboration to shift perceptions. . • Graduates who struggled for work in Europe and who created and used new means for acquiring knowledge and for demonstrating their competencies, in order to attract employers to them, rather than visa versa. Data entrepreneurs rule (e.g. pioneering new forms of insurance and recourse for customers in this data-driven world that are adopted by the mainstream). • Social entrepreneurs and community innovators developing new models of care.

SCENARIOS GLIMPSE: Uninvited guests, by Superflux

“Thomas, aged 70, lives on his own after his wife died last year. His children send him smart devices to track and monitor his diet, health and sleep from a distance. But Thomas has always been fiercely independent, happy to live in an organised mess. He struggles with the order and rules imposed on him by the objects that are meant to make his life easier. In a world where ’smart objects’ will increasingly be used to provide care at a distance, how will we live with these uninvited guests?” http://www.superflux.in/work/uninvitedguests

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

Questions this scenario raises While the policy regime sparked and regulated a circular economy, other changes were needed in society to create the high levels of trust and shift in emphasis away from material goods that enable this automated society to function in order to meet social goals. •

How did established businesses use the external events to their advantage?

•

How can trust be fostered while managing conflict?

• What made citizens feel secure in making their personal data available to business and government? • How is that trust developed and upheld - particularly in the energy market when there are high barriers to entry for new entrants? • What are the data regimes and policies that needed to be put in place to allow this society to flourish? •

How is social equality reconciled in this scenario?

•

What is the next societal goal once the circular economy has been enabled?

Governing the Commons

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

The pathway to 2050 5 years

Cost of living soars, wages and pensions fail to keep pace

Job losses from traditional manufacturing hit a high

Governments tackle the looming gap between energy supply and demand by forcing radical, energy efficiency legislation through parliament

People are highly concerned about environmental issues, facilitated by IoT sensors

The ‘gig economy’ and ‘micro-work’ describe the emerging European economy

A landslide of companies that have failed to adapt go bankrupt

30 years

Connections between people are enhanced by some aspects being algorithm, sensor and data led

There is an emphasis on virtual not material consumption 32

Identity is made up of a patchwork of affiliations

Global decentralised networks, flocks and swarms dominate decision making and governance

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

15 years

â&#x20AC;&#x153;I believe in the power of the crowd to fight injusticesâ&#x20AC;? Hierarchical institutions are no longer capable of responding to the systemic and interrelated challenges society is facing

A growing global network of individuals calls for citizens to act together to deal with climate change, rising resource prices & equality

There is a recognition of the need for ongoing social (legal and political) evolution The economy is dynamically stable and digitally networked, fuelled by cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology

Peer-to-peer networks initiate a global act for self-surveillance People are seeking deeper connections and crave stronger ties; networks with a greater defining the purpose start to emerge

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

GLOBALLY ORIENTED

Myth: shared and distributed power allows for a more equitable society Goal: fairness, equality and distributed access Identity: unique to individuals, made up of a patchwork of affiliations Mindset: global, networked Approach: Dynamically stable, digitally networked Systemic approach: unconscious living system â&#x20AC;&#x201C; not sure of the direction or purpose

BOTTOM UP GOVERNANCE

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

2050 Scenario summary In this world data is rich, abundant and flows around the world. People live their lives by participating in and affiliating themselves with online peer-to-peer networks, and live out different sides of their personalities and preferences by involving themselves in multiple groups. Everyone has a political voice and chooses to participate. A ‘DIY’ ethos prevails, with people creating personalised solutions and acting collectively where it is in their interest. Peer-to-peer groups provide the social and health safety net through commissioning services. It is a society in flux as old democratic institutions have failed, and new democratic processes – coined

‘Wikidemocracy’ – mature. The EU as we know it in 2014, is redundant. This makes for a dynamic society in which dramatic environmental legislation has been pushed through, despite all odds. Smart, digital fabrication and additive manufacturing proliferate and are the engines of nested and dynamic circular economies that cut across national and EU borders. We live multifaceted lives and roam, venture and even go on holiday in the digital realm. We enhance our experience of the everyday through augmented reality and digital services, and have vibrant social lives without leaving home; commuting and ‘the school run’ are nolonger necessary.

The shadow side of the scenario Data is so open and available that the people and networks that have the capacity to model, analyse and manipulate big data are at an advantage. While data is ‘democratic’, in real terms, the capability to use this data, and therefore real power, could be concentrated.

means at their disposal, from digital PR to coercion and could potentially wield their own forms of justice.

Previous institutions have been supplanted by a system of peer group negotiation and practical action. Therefore, charismatic individuals with strong social networks can wield huge influence.

Society operates within environmental limits as a result of self-surveillance policies that influence real world activity via a digital layer around it.

Fundamental reconfiguration of the society is likely to ensue associated crisis and breakdown which would need managing or else it could lead to extensive conflict. New modes are key to this and work if ethicalequitable principles are upheld. If they aren’t - the system is open to manipulation and new power vacuums to form. Peer-to-peer networks could wrestle for control in this world using every

Clannish power dynamics could be made worse by an education system lead informally through peer networks.

While this is a physically healthy world, the state of mental health could be lower as people lack solidity in their relationships and about the future. The extrovert and the well-connected flourish. There is the potential for a social underclass that’s cut off from opportunity. A shift of regulatory powers from government to peer groups and the prevalence of digital fabrication could risk a lack of control in biotech innovation.

Artefact from the future

With so many digital connections and a unique patchwork of friends - you need a virtual family portrait in your home to help you remember who knows know and how it all fits together to make up your life.

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Landscape factors Wealth

Wealth is understood by actively participating in a number of different digital communities of interest and feeling a sense of personal freedom and endless possibility in virtual worlds.

Health

Being mentally stimulated and connected in some way, to people who share the same personal passions. Self-actualisation.

Economy

Truly global; organised on a hybrid virtual/ geographical basis. Capitalism is evolving as new social structures for exchange, work, services, governance, protection – and other social goods – make traditional institutions redundant.

Environment

People are highly tuned in to and concerned about environmental issues, facilitated by IOT sensors. A lot of sustainable innovation is focused around solving single issue environmental issues.

Governance

Self-actualisation is the central organising principle. It’s up to individuals to choose which peer groups they choose to affiliate with, based on their interests and passions. Trust is quickly won and lost and is easily created and sensed and manufactured through social profiles and networks. If there is enough dynamism, energy & momentum – then you see an explosion of energy around particular areas. This is often in response to a lack of fairness or equality that needs to be rebalanced. The power of the crowd is really making decisions about what is done when. The way societies organise can seem chaotic & fractious, there is a need to look at the collective picture & make sense of it for others, by a neutral party, – it can feel like a digital swamp. Trust is vital because makes the governance system accountable and this mode of organizing possible.

Identity and power

People identify with virtual tribes. People have many weak connections and fractured and unique identities. Charismatic individuals attract people to them through inflated digital profiles, creating some concentrations of power. Some use this fairly and responsibly to drive collectively and positive change, the same cannot be said for all Communities – made up of passionate people – coalescing around strong discourses/narratives create temporary concentrations of power, energy and identity for people. Those who design new governance structures and regimes wield a lot of power and influence. They need to be conceived with fairness and equality at their heart for this to create a shift towards sustainability in society. 37

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Governing the Commons Citizens of 2050

Their identity

Their innovation

Their obstacles

Their tools

Their questions

Their skills

Networks, trust and tailored Clara is a ‘frameworks’ health data to enable those entrepreneur. Five with a particular years ago, Clara health need to found out she commission their has a rare health own services. condition and is now galvanising Many of the those with similar treatments needed can and related conditions to fill be delivered remotely; so gaps in research and health hers is a global services. initiative.

Ensuring the quality of the services once commissioned.

Citizen science initiatives and quantified health devices which are making health.

How can I do all of this, and sustain the momentum, when my own health is declining?

Project management to manage the services, once commissioned.

Silvia, 35, Italian living in Germany

Opponents of the ‘environmental limits’ movement.

Clara, 67, Poland

Silvia’s a tech start-up founder. She’s an activist, using peer to peer networks to lobby for food reform laws through the digital realm. She’s part of small social networks of campaigners, particularly in tech and food producers ecosystems. Her family used to run an artisan business making balsamic vinegar in Modena. 38

Campaigning for global, selfsurveillance laws to force stringent limits to growth. Attempts to achieve this in the ‘real world’ have failed. Her family’s artisan legacy has been one of the casualties.

Managing service transformation as new technologies become available. Data security: only participants in the commissioning exercise benefit from the services commissioned.

Complex data analytics to make the case that global environmental laws will deliver returns for different stakeholder groups.

An aging population around the world means there’s an increased awareness and motivation to improve health services.

How can I feel safer and more secure in my older age?

Guardian to look after her affairs and her role on the commissioning board, at the point she is unable to manage it herself.

A time-banking service that enables her children to transfer time credits to her. Creative passion of people in the digital PR, modellers. Disruptions to supply agricultural commodities, rising costs of food production and increasing shift to ‘synthetically grown’ food.

How can I show that operating within environmental limits is the most favourable route forwards?

Digital diplomacy Digital PR Modellers and data hackers

Campaigners with vast and How can I counter diverse social the prevailing networks view that technology will save us?

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Role of citizens along the pathway to 2050 Everyone is a ‘user’ or ‘citizen innovator’ because everyone personalise and optimises every aspect of their lives. People actively participate in creating the goods and services they buy – made all the more possible because much of our consumption takes place in the digital realm or is manufactured small scale at home or locally. Those who created significant change on the pathway paved the way for Wikidemocracy by ‘getting things done’ in collaboration with peers, particularly the pioneers of self-surveillance environmental legislation. Innovating new governance approaches is key In 2050, those creating positive change are (1) championing values and ethics, and finding ways to regulate them (2) empowering disadvantaged people in this extrovert, entrepreneurial society (3) seeking to stabilise the power dynamics in ‘Wikidemocracy’ (4) connecting people to purpose.

Who are the citizen innovators most prominent in creating change? • Those able to mobilise collective action – among local communities, among user groups and among peer ‘interest groups’. These reason for doing this is to ensure more equitable spread of power and to influence change around particular issue. • Those able to leverage the resources and capabilities to manipulate big data, at a global scale - to instigate self-surveillance and the data-driven decision-making processes that form the heart of Wiki-democracy • Citizen governance innovators” key – to design a fair and equitable system that can evolve e.g. by creating equality bots •

Purpose led network builders

How and why do people innovate? Governing the Commons is a connected, flexible and passion-fuelled world in which people strive for fairness, authenticity and environmental justice. Social justice and equality is key to the success of this world. People gain a sense of agency in their ability to contribute to a cause bigger than them – they will do this in large and small ways – depending on their needs and passions at that time. Creative self-expression and co-innovation with others are interwoven through all aspects of work, personal and civic life. There is a blended reality between your life, personal and work interests. Everyone has a unique perspective on this due to the pathwork identities that exist. Emotional intelligence, the ability to collaborate and the wherewithal to do so

are vital. Information is abundant and people tap in to the wisdom of their personal networks and communities to make decisions. Data is openly shared and diversely interpreted. People invest time in processes of discussion and creation as it contributes to their identity. In 2050, those creating positive change are: • Championing values and ethics, and finding ways to regulate them • Empowering disadvantaged people in this extrovert, entrepreneurial society • Seeking to stabilise the power dynamics in ‘Wikidemocracy’ •

Connecting people to purpose 39

SCENARIOS GLIMPSE: Eco Coin

“Would the rain forest still be destroyed if we could pay people to let the trees stand? The ECO coin is an alternative currency to express environmental value. This is how we connect economy and ecology. Meet Alberto. A farmer in the Amazon rain forest. He has a choice. He can burn down the trees and grow soy to feed his family, or let the trees be and earn zero. What would you do? If Alberto cuts the trees, another piece of the forest is lost, CO2 of in the atmosphere increases and global warming perpetuates. Still it would be hypocritical to make a moral call upon Alberto to let the trees be and not make a living – especially for people in industrialized countries that cut their trees centuries ago for economical gain. Rather than preaching Alberto on his moral obligation towards the environment, we should economically compensate him to steward the rain forest. This is aim of the ECO coin. Balancing the Currencies If we are to cope with current environmental crises like deforestation, decreasing biodiversity and climate change, we have to connect the economical ecology and the environmental ecology. With the latter we mean the ecology of plants, trees, animals, and other organic material. Whereas the economical ecology is defined by our financial system of market, money, goods and other economical exchange.” https://www.nextnature.net/projects/ecocoin/

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Questions this scenario raises The erosion of nation states and national and supranational institutions draws back many of the welfare and regulatory functions of 2016. Society effectively self-organises its own solutions and the policies needed to install them – and this new form of governance is still settling down. Environmental limits are strictly enforced via technology. • How are cultures of respect and equality upheld in a more dynamic, and even volatile, democratic system? • Does self-surveillance play a role in this also – and if so, how are human rights and civil liberties ensured? • How can there be a managed breakdown of established organisations and institutions that allow for the formation and acceleration of uptake of a new regime . way of organising society? •

How will conflict and unease be managed?

•

What’s the role of business and institutions in this society?

• It is unclear how these reinterpret ‘real world’ democratic processes for the digital realm. • What organisation or committee brings stability to this potentially volatile situation? How does ‘fair’ and ‘representative’ decision-making happen? •

How will governance be innovated on a global scale with ethics being upheld?

• If issues are dealt with on a singular basis - how can there be a systemic approach to all important issues necessary to tackle?

Local Loops

LOCAL LOOPS

Pathway to 2050 5 years

Riots and protests break out as a sharp rise in energy prices pushes up inflation

Governments are forced to look at reforming economic policies and governance structures

Fear of a ‘return to austerity’

Work and leisure time is blurry as people spend more time in their local communities

Drastic price shifts force people to start exploring more local and secure production alternatives

Individuals part of mainstream politics and business who start playing a role in the organising at a community level

30 years

European education policy recognises guilds as part of the education system

A growing mindset towards love and respect for diversity

Pioneering cities track resource flows to protect & manage multiple ‘Local Loops’

EU launches a ‘Local Loops’ framework of incentives to encourage regions to become self-sufficient in key resources

LOCAL LOOPS

15 years

Failure of national government to respond to key challenges The influence of those working in isolation is recognised to be limited Localised value networks become more dominant

A strong spine of resources, from EU level is provided for all e.g. basic services - utilities, energy, logistics

Strong collaboration within and among guilds; customised local and regional design solutions

“I’m a proud European and I’m committed to contributing to making my local region flourish”

High level of trust in expert decision-makers in guilds to represent their members 45

LOCAL LOOPS

TOP DOWN GOVERNANCE

Myth: regional diversity and devolved power will enable greater resilience and regional flourishing Goal: sustainable, flourishing and resilient regions Identity: strong sense of local identity, sense of being European Mindset: love and respect for of diversity Approach: distributed and devolved, valuing different approaches and celebrating diversity Systemic approach: systemic thinking

LOCALLY ORIENTED

LOCAL LOOPS

2050 Scenario summary

Europe is made up of millions of local loops, thanks to the mandated European Framework. Efficient and effective flows of resources and information are enabled by a centralised spine of essential resources allowing for the fair distribution and co-ordination of key resources between loops/regions.

outsource chores and eat out a lot in neighbourhood canteens to enable them to focus on their work and social life in Professional Guilds.

Citizens spend time living and working their local communities and through associations with their professional guild. Notions of home and work have disappeared.

There is lots of exchange between regions – for example Norway trading energy to Italy in return for food. This helps to share learning and mutual understanding between different loops.

Global knowledge and innovations are exchanged via technology, government programmes and travelling storytellers.

It’s a largely safe world where trust is dominant within loops. However there are regions of discontent and conflict.

Goods are exchanged through time and developed on a need basis or in response to competitions.

Families lead busy lives, contributing locally in many different ways. They

The shadow side of the scenario Without the right flows of information between local loops, this world is becoming for some people claustrophobic. Some people may choose to drop out of the loop / guild system and it is unclear how this will impact the social dynamics in regions, but it could be easy to ignore these types of challenges.

Similarly areas scare in resources (or strong community leadership) may find it more difficult to exist and trade with others. This may lead to very rural, disconnected loops that struggle and aren’t appropriately supported under the European Loops Framework.

Artefact from the future

A cross between a passport and a loyalty card - each guild and local region has a different form of ID for itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s members. It comes in the shape of a digitally enhanced card for some, or a piece of jewellery for others.

LOCAL LOOPS

Landscape factors Wealth

Wealth is gained through contributing to the flourishing of the local community and guild and being part of a region that’s able to meet its resource requirements and basic needs. People work when their skills are required, contributing to the community in a variety of ways, such as growing food and caring for others.

Health

What it means to be happy and health is being part of a thriving local guild / community and seeing your needs being met, thanks to the support of others.

Economy

The economy is truly global, organised on a hybrid virtual/ geographical basis. Capitalism is evolving as new social structures for exchange, work, services, governance, protection – and other social goods – make traditional institutions redundant. Environmental concerns are placed on an equal footing to social concerns. Much improvement has been made in terms of efficiencies – but as implementation of policy happens at a local level there is inconsistencies across countries and Europe as a whole. Localised energy production has become mainstream.

Environment

Governance

The European Commission sets the direction of travel for the economy, via the ‘New Green Deal’. Power is devolved to the local level to implement and organise how this is achieved. At a local level cities and towns are responsible for day to day governance and people organise themselves into Guilds, or communities who all work together to form local networks of value – exchange goods, energy, food, skills and more. This is the locus of governance in this scenario, mimicking principles of self organisation. People act as they have been given license to implement local solutions by the EU – and they are have a sense of agency thanks to working collaboratively as local groups. Everyone helps to secure resources and safeguard the economy by helping their Professional Guild to flourish. They advocate for their guild and members in city governance processes, and by supporting the politicians and policies that will protect local resource loops for Europe.

Identity and power

People are accepting and empowered by top down policy at EU level, with freedom to act, take decisions and innovate locally. Power sits with community guilds and city government officials. Guilds develop power dynamics which become institutitonalised. Influence is wielded through networks that trade and share within and between cities. Communities and cities have very strong and unique sense of connection and identity. People have a strong sense of identity to their local region, however the is acceptance of diversity and celebration of that across Europe. 49

LOCAL LOOPS

Local Loops Citizens of 2050

Their identity

Their innovation

Their obstacles

Their tools

Their questions

Their skills

Her own fashion brand, she’s Lizzie runs a passionate about small sustainable good quality, clothes company sustainable in her local region. clothes. Slightly She has strong by accident she networks and is found herself often using her brokering new connections to relationships innovate new and businesses value networks in within her own her community. community – by the fact she She is supported knows lot of by her mother people. who also set up her own business in her 30’s.

Pre-established organisations and networks that can obstruct and prevent new ideas from flourishing.

Social media to keep in touch with people from other loops.

How can I learn from others in different communities? I want new ideas to feed into my local community

Personal / face to face communication;

Percy, 19, Helsinki

The current guilds.

Lizzie, 27, Lyon

Guerrilla for – hyper local Percy’s had a synthetic food stable upbringing, guild. but he’s tired of seeing his parents Young & unenthused and optimistic, saw worn down by that no-one the community was making politics of their the most of the local guild. obscure Finnish habitats (perfect ingredients for local synthetic food).

Network grants to establish new value networks.

Prioritising which network to catalyse and build Young leaders mentoring on first. network.

Expectation he will partake in person in the community often.

Access to global knowledge and science. Mesh networks – setting up an untraceable Guerrilla guild network. Fellowship/ exchange trip he went to visit bio-hacking labs around Europe when he was 14.

Visioning; Lean start-up network skills.

How can I help those around me do more? How can I be even more efficient and self sustainable?

Why aren’t people seeing (or acting) on our need to secure our energy supply when we’re in turmoil? Why can’t we scale solutions at a national or international level?

Science knowledge; Practical cooking skills; Self belief he can develop new ideas – and not just be complicit.

LOCAL LOOPS

Role of citizens along the pathway to 2050 What is the role of innovators in this scenarios? • Community innovation based on current needs and in response to global/ nationwide competitions; • Small scale entrepreneurship & coops encouraged, supported and valued; • Adapting solutions to the local context that were developed elsewhere initially; • Innovation around time & means of exchange; •

Creating new value networks.

Who are the citizen innovators most prominent in creating change? • Community leaders/ organisers those who collectively lead successful regional pilots and who influenced the shape of the EU adopted policy; • Trust architects that forged the networks and networks at the heart of the ‘modern guilds’ around which daily life revolves; • National policy mobilisers who used their networks, communications skills and zeal to call for radical, positive change in the EU New Green Deal; • Local entrepreneurs who moved quickly to find business opportunity in the Local Loops policy.

How and why do people innovate? Local Loops is a society where everyone is a European citizen first, and a member of their guild/community and city/region second.

This belonging provides a sense of agency to do things often achieved in practice through shared tasks/work plus shared learning & development experiences.

As it’s a communal, collective world – where people relate to each other via close personal/physical ties and are spurred to act through a shared identity in their guilds/communities.

Feedback loops are small and embraced by all. There is an expectation of participation by all at a local level.

SCENARIOS GLIMPSE: Super Models and Supporting Actors, Royal College of Art

“In 2016, London celebrates 160 years of organisation by postal district. Devised by Sir Rowland Hill in 1856, the subdivision of London into separate postal districts was a necessary response to rapid population growth and the dire need to accelerate communication in a city that was still largely medieval in structure.

character in a drive for greater efficiency: the consolidation of disparate private transport networks around 1902, the introduction of town planning legislation in 1909 and the creation of the 32 London Boroughs in 1965 to name but a few. As the speed of communication continues to increase exponentially and the ‘Smart’ city becomes a credible possibility, our dream of ultimate efficiency appears close to fulfilment.

cyberspace with just a few billion humans.

Unconcerned by the petty politics and territoriality of local authorities, these non-human citizens understand London as just part of ‘the grid’, translating GPS signals into (UTM) coordinates. With AI and machine learning increasingly influencing new models of both politics The ten original districts and public, the notion of were denoted by their the ‘local authorities’ is all compass point – EC but redundant by 2025. As (Eastern Central), WC London’s anthropocentric (Western Central), and organisation dissolves, then NW, N, NE, E, SE, However, in 2008 our the outnumbered human S, SW, and W – were global civilisation reached citizens mourn the loss contained within a circle a pretty historic threshold: of their local identity. of 12 miles radius from we became a minority London’s human population central London. The year online. The Internet of once again redraws itself 1886 saw the abolition of People gave way to the through its cardinal points. two of these districts – NE Internet of Things. Today The newly re-established and S – deemed unviable by there are at least two other Seven Districts once again surveyor Anthony Trollope. devices connected to the define life in the capital.“ internet for every human In the years that followed, http://www.rca.ac.uk/ being’s personal device; by numerous attempts schools/school-of2020 we will be hopelessly were made to eliminate architecture/architecture/ outnumbered – some 50 the remaining nuances ads-themes-201516/ads4/ billion networked objects of London’s incongruent will prowl the reaches of 52

LOCAL LOOPS

Questions this scenario raises The Local Loops policy could have been implemented via existing institutions and via government-commissioned service and infrastructure contracts. Instead, business and networks mushroomed and helped to bring about a cultural shift towards valuing ‘local’, sharing more and consuming less. • How can the conditions for circular economies be fostered so that policy scales rather than imposes them? •

What would it take to accept and embrace devolution to regions?

• What would it take for national governments to become less relevant? How could that happen without conflict and extreme right wing resistance? • How could you help people embrace and celebrate diversity and not be threatened or fearful of it?

Empathetic Communities

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Pathway to 2050 5 years

Unemployment remains high due to austerity measures on public budgets

Governments fail to anticipate the situation. They cannot afford to bail the banks out

High price of energy and natural resources affects household budgets

Citizens’ lives are thrown into turmoil

First of many governments resigns

Financial markets face crisis. Several big banks collapse

30 years

Questioning, acting and learning form the core structure of people's actions

“Touch others not with your hands but with your heart”

Caring & empathetic collective action creates unstoppable forces 56

The generation of people who have grown up within the empathy paradigm gain permanent positions in politics, companies and communities

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

15 years

People start to experiment with local production of food and New relationships energy start to emerge that show a model for human flourishing Break-down in global economy; absence of global financial and political systems; new forms of exchange

Local economies dominate

United Nations is transformed into United Cities, Towns and Regions We are one earth, ever growing and evolving - people identify with other living things 57

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

TOP DOWN GOVERNANCE

Myth: we are earth, ever growing and evolving Goal: healthy and flourishing continuum and evolution of living things Identity: we identify with other living things/beings Mindset: caring, empathetic Approach: collective action creates unstoppable forces Systemic approach: living systems co-evolvement

LOCALLY ORIENTED

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

2050 Scenario summary Mutually supportive relationships provide the primary social foundations for Europe. There is strong empathy for others and people find fulfilment by contributing to the collective good. Life is made meaningful by relationships with family, friends and the community. People value the connectedness to nature, others, themselves and their spiritual foundations. After a protracted period of economic upheaval and social unrest, the EU and other national governments and institutions have been replaced by neighbourhood cooperatives and a patchwork of small municipalities that are bartering, gifting and innovating their way to self-sufficiency. People rely on their community for security. Food growing and energy production are a vital part of the local social fabric. Like all aspects of life they are delivered in ways that mix the very traditional (lo-tech and ‘backward’) with the high tech and modern.

Public space has gained great significance, with urban infrastructures turned over to urban farming and for communal living. People value food and other scarce resources and minimised waste. Within community life there is enough to go around though this isn’t taken for granted. Leisure time is public, social and is geared towards servicing the needs of cooperatives. Holidays are used for personal reflection, while virtual travel is a much-savoured luxury. Education is based on finding one’s gift and meeting others’ needs. Education systems develop social as well as practical and work-related skills to develop people who are able to be productive and socially skilled members of the community.

The shadow side of the scenario This world potentially limits individual freedom especially for people who feel they don’t ‘belong in a community oriented world. There is a risk of intolerance and exclusion of divergent individuals. Due to the fact that communities handle crime and punishment themselves, there are some who decay these processes as exclusionary and non-democratic. There is a potential for isolation and mistrust of other communities, who might hold different values and ways of living. There is a danger of retreat to feudal structures, which result in a lack of knowledge and innovation sharing.

Food demand pressures and historically low investment in energy could mean synthetic engineering is a necessity, although regulating this might prove very difficult due to the fragmented nature of society. The pursuit of spirituality can foster selfish and empathetic traits. At the worst, this becomes manipulative and exploitative of vulnerable groups and individuals. This isn’t an efficient world and it presents more of a patchwork approach to sustainability due to necessity and scarce resources.

Artefact from the future

Living in such close proximity and relating in a very true and honest way takes it toll. People seek solace in silence and in places where they donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t have to interact with others at such a deep level, there are many temple of silenceâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s that have popped up to respond to that need.

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Landscape factors Wealth

Wealth is seen as being full of love and compassion for others, and being spiritually fulfilled and contented. People feel wealthy when they are contributing to the personal development and evolution of yourself and others.

Health

Health is understood as human flourishing â&#x20AC;&#x201C; to be spiritually fulfilled while meeting your basic needs. It is enabled by the energy and humanity of those you share your experiences with. Receiving help from others enables people to unlock their potential.

Economy

Modern subsistence is based on a belief in the abundance of human potential and looks beyond capitalism and material consumption. Exchange is based on a barter system of time, skills, energy, resources within and between hyper-local neighbourhoods.

Environment

There is an increased understanding of the inherent connections of people to the natural world. This breeds more responsible behaviours and valuing of the natural world. Attitudes are vastly different across different regions, so there is inconsistency in the response to how environmental challenges are responded to in this scenario. Social sustainability takes priority.

Governance

Empathy is the central organising principle for society. Society is made up of many different self-organising communities â&#x20AC;&#x201C; each with their own approaches, habits and rules. The role of the state, the EU or regional bodies is very unclear in this world. Modes of organising evolve through social and cultural entrepreneurship, driven by shifting values and philosophies. Leadership tends to take the form of collaborative approaches through enabling others to make decisions. Those with confidence, charisma and who have reached a stage of personal enlightenment tend to be the ones who take leadership positions.

Identity and power

People identify with a social revolution and a strong belief in humanity. Changeable power dynamics pivot around neighbourhood cooperatives. Collaborative community leaders are rebuilding society around new philosophies. They have subtle and often invisible power. People identify and empathise with other living things and recognise humans are just one part of the planet.

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Empathetic Communities citizens of 2050

Their identity

Their innovation

Their obstacles

Their tools

Their questions

Their skills

Yanina, Thomas, Anna. They are all aged between 50 and 60, Hamburg.

They are creating stability within turmoil, community vision and structure. They help people to develop capacities for empathy that enable them to live well together.

Turmoil, fear, apathy.

Opportunities for being creative with others, practical support to meet their own needs, recognition and engagement with their values.

How can we help people develop empathy on which our future depends?

Being persuasive; Lack of personal ego;

They care deeply about people and creating healthy communities in which everyone can thrive. They are facilitators of group spaces, focusing on creating empathetic understanding through their qualities of calm, peacefulness, being musical as well as practical. Gill (47) Sabina (30), and Philippa (26), Greece.

Media programmes to strengthen community Gill, Sabina and building, Philippa have promote sharing lived a lot in a of resources, short time and build capacity experienced many for healthy difficult changes. relationships, as They have seen those are key to fragmentation successful living. and experienced breakdown. They want positivity and humanity. Their passions are living together harmoniously, mutual support, stories and change. 62

Competitive modes of thinking. They face the threat of loss of individuality in society. They overcome this through giving people a voice, inclusivity, creating platforms for them to speak.

They face scarcity of resources; danger of and reality of breakdown and conflicts. Sharing is a necessity.

They draw support from other people in the community who share their ability to listen and observe and their sense of justice.

They draw support from the community - which means people in it buying into an idea.

They get help They overcome from professional obstacles through communicators persisting with to disseminate their media their message programmes. within the community.

How can we create a vision of what an enabling system would look like?

They need to be good at listening, observing and have a sense of justice. They need an ability to think in systems.

How can we help people shift from competitive to collaborative behaviour?

They need charisma and social skills to succeed.

How do we use the media to help people understand and value empathy, and to practice it more in their lives?

Strong communication skills;

How do we produce our programmes with minimal resources?

Media skills; Perseverance; Developed empathetic capabilities.

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Role of citizens along the pathway to 2050 The role of citizens in Empathetic Communities is to innovate ways for society to enrich people and communities, for governance and justice, art, personal, social and spiritual development. They develop new collaborative forms of non-financial/ financial exchange (e.g. ‘next generation time-banking’), as well as new technologies for food production, substitution of materials, waste and recycling. Who are the citizen innovators most prominent in creating change? • Homesteaders: the first groups of families who took the risk of moving to ‘cooperative neighbourhoods’ within their cities; sinking their savings into making it work and scaling back their paid employment and pension contributions. • Founders of cooperatives: who forged the first ‘converted car park

fields’; securing hard-won permissions and lease arrangements with councils and private owners; they established a blueprint for others to follow. • Charismatic leaders that foster belief and trust in ‘better’: they attract/ encourage others to join neighbourhood cooperative movement; drive through local governance changes to support the cooperatives. • Open source spiritual gurus: those able to forge traditional spirituality practises and convert them into mainstream tools and approaches for people to live and be in a new state of consciousness. • Culture-makers: professionals inside mainstream communications and entertainment that made programming and editorial choices to make the ‘science’ of empathy accessible to all.

How and why do people innovate? Empathetic communities is a society that has consciously cultivated empathy for others and in which people willingly invest their time and creativity for the good of the community, on a reciprocal basis. This emerges after a period of stress, pain and upheaval that has left people grateful for live and their immediate relationships.

and energy is available to those in close proximity.

Journeys of self-discovery provide people with the inner, spiritual confidence and ability to act and innovate.

People identify with their extended family and local community. Agency is achieved through continued personal development and strong personal networks. These provide physical and emotional support. Those who struggle to adapt are also supported in this way.

People are generous with their time (and love and emotion) if they believe you are helping others. They contribute time to their cooperative to ensure food

They tend not to move around often and you live in a more communal manner. People who do move between different communities and regions are exposed to new ideas.

SCENARIOS GLIMPSE: Designing for the Sixth Extinction, Daisy Alexandra Gainsburg

“Can we ‘preserve’ by looking forward? The sixth great extinction event in the history of biology is underway, and we humans may be its cause. While conservationists struggle to protect existing ‘natural’ species and reverse the effects of the Anthropocene (the human epoch), synthetic biologists are busy designing new organisms for the ‘benefit of humanity’. What might the ‘wilds’ look like in a synthetic biological future? Designing for the Sixth Extinction investigates synthetic biology’s potential impact on biodiversity and conservation. Could we tolerate ‘rewilding’ — the conservation movement that lets nature take control — using synthetic biology to make nature ‘better’? Letting synthetic biodiversity loose to save the ‘nature’ that we idealise would disrupt existing conventions of preservation. In this version of the future, novel companion species designed by synthetic biologists support endangered natural species and ecosystems. Financed by corporate biodiversity offset schemes, patented species are released into the wild. They compensate for biodiversity lost due to widespread monoculture farming of biomass for biofuel and chemical production. For a thriving bioeconomy, the preservation of natural biodiversity is worthwhile not just for sentimental reasons, it is also a valuable DNA 64

library for future biological designs. Modelled on fungus, bacteria, invertebrates and mammals, the designed species are ecological machines that fill the void left by vanished organisms, or offer novel protection against more harmful invasive species, diseases and pollution. Constructed using an expanded DNA code that produces non-biodegradable proteins, the synthetic biodiversity is hardy in the face of wild predators that have not yet evolved to eat and digest them. They operate in enclosed ecosystems, the outcome of decades of political negotiation and compromise around biosafety and release. Designed organisms used to maintain or revive disappearing ecosystems would demand a relaxed attitude to biological control, risk and ownership. The taxonomic status of organisms that are technologically isolated with no purpose except to save others is also uncertain. Are they even ‘alive’? If nature is totally industrialized for the benefit of society—which for some is the logical endpoint of synthetic biology — will nature still exist for us to save?” http://www.daisyginsberg.com/

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Questions this scenario raises Following years of protracted turmoil and unrest, significant investment in community renewables and a distributed energy system took place. From the unrest arose a new paradigm and strengthened community cohesion. • How might we create the resilience to be able to bounce back quickly to make the most of a crisis? • How can crisis best be managed and navigated? Is a crisis essential on the path towards sustainable lifestyles? Perceptions of risk are likely to have played a part in the shift to self-sufficient neighbourhoods; for the first movers, first followers and early adopters the risks of not changing how they would provide for themselves would have appeared to outweigh the risks of making the transition. • How could some of the risks involved in big, family life-style changes be managed upfront, so as not to act as a deterrent? •

How can you cultivate spirituality and conscious practice at a societal level?

• If there is acceptance and empathy between living things and natural cycles of life, does that mean there is complacency and that people are happy to die out as a species as part of that natural life cycle?

Scenario comparisons The following pages show a series of comparisons of the different scenarios. These help to demonstrate the key differences between the scenarios. While radical social change occurs in all four scenarios, it develops and plays out very differently in each. The most important social changes that occur are in: • The nature of governance: constitution; legislature and judiciary, and executive functions • The prevailing culture of society: the organising structures, goals, values, mindset and paradigm. Four key points for comparison: Globally oriented SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Bottom up governance

LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Locally oriented

1. Economy 2. Governance 3. Social relations 4. Drivers of change

1. Economy Nation states, government institutions, global trade and the financial system have changed beyond recognition by 2050 in three of the four scenarios, as have valued-based notions of prosperity, wellbeing, education, income and employment. Only Singular Super Champions has 66

today’s capitalist, growth economy. Even here, concepts of leisure and retirement are outdated because people find identity and personal fulfilment through their working, professional lives; they stay physically and mentally fit to optimise varied careers, with the goal of working as long as possible. More radical changes occur in Local Loops and Governing the Commons, where today’s global financial system is displaced by peer-to-peer value exchange and participation in society. Employment regimes consist of paid and unpaid work, social welfare is fostered through communities of interest, and education takes the form of semi-structured, selfdirected learning. This means that three of the four scenarios shift beyond the goal of economic growth and see new forms of production, consumption and exchange; concepts of prosperity that place higher priority on immaterial gains. These cannot not be described by quantifiable indicators like GDP, productivity, national exports and household disposable income as they would inaccurately portray European citizens as ‘poorer’ than today because material fortunes are lower. In all four scenarios, ‘wealth’ and ‘prosperity’ are reconceptualised. The societies depicted in all four scenarios have successfully developed a radically efficient material economy that has not only achieved an absolute reduction in the use of resources, but that can sustain it. In all cases, this is achieved through greater synergy and integration across energy, food, housing and mobility systems that unlock ‘whole system efficiencies’ in consumption. These changes to the physical infrastructures of society are made possible and through an interplay with wider, cultural changes. One fundamental philosophy that evolves relates to life and death: in Empathetic

Communities, customary euthanasia caps life expectancy at 50 because the quality of a person’s spiritual life is perceived to matter more than their physical life and lifespan.

2. Governance Trust in the people and organisations governing society emerges as an important factor for enabling sustainable lifestyles across all the scenarios. This plays out differently in each one: in Singular Super Champions, trust in businesses and public authorities that use personal data to make decisions on individuals’ and communities’ behalf is very high, enabling the conditions for a digital services economy to improve material efficiency; in Governing the Commons, there is a decline in trust in established institutions and a surge of trust in virtual communities and peers, which brings about the digital selfsurveillance of carbon emissions despite institutional inertia. Local Loops depicts a future in which the European Commission sets the tone for autonomous, locally devolved regions, giving citizens freedom to test and act locally. In Empathetic Communities, on the other hand, empathy is the main organising principle and changeable power dynamics pivot towards neighbourhood cooperative models.

3. Social relations How people relate to each other affects the emergence of a healthy society. In some scenarios, change is accelerated by the development of new perceptions of humanity and the self, personal and collective identity, as well as health. For example, in Empathetic Communities, health is understood as ‘human flourishing’ – to be spiritually fulfilled while meeting your basic needs, while in Singular Super Champions, people use data to optimise their bodies’ potential. How people perceive their role in society varies across the scenarios, too: in Local Loops, people are citizens of their respective city regions rather

than nations; in Singular Super Champions, people are economic units; in Governing the Commons, people see themselves as ‘nodes’ in complex sociotechnical networks; and in Empathetic Communities, people see themselves as Earth ‘beings’. These different perceptions have an impact on everything from citizenship to education and family structures.

4. Drivers of change The proportion of total change that takes place across the scenarios 2015 - 2025 does not necessarily represent a desirable and/ or useful, prospective indicator of resource efficiency and sustainability. In Governing the Commons, while changes in agency and how society organizes occur by 2025, long-term environmental policies are not introduced until late in the timeline. The shift towards sustainable lifestyles does not occur until decision-making philosophies change, bringing about stringent environmental legislation. In both Governing the Commons and Empathetic Communities, changes in agency and how society organizes bring about informal changes to the constitution, executive and judiciary of those societies that are eventually institutionalized, resulting in changes to its legislature. The Local Loops scenario sees the early introduction of a comprehensive, European-wide policy framework for guiding economic development and environmental management, and experiences gradual, progressive change along the pathway. This is the result of a change of discourse about economic development in Europe in response to a period of prolonged, low growth and the emergence of successful, alternative economic models in certain European regions. On the following pages, you’ll find a series of comparative diagrams which look at how these different future visions might play out in the different scenarios.

MODELS

Cultural context

Myth: shared and distributed power allows for a more equitable society;

Myth: technology will save us; Goal: progress through efficient growth;

Goal: fairness, equality and distributed access;

Identity: obligation to fulfil oneâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s potential; achievement through tangibility; Mindset: mechanistic, rational, logical, data and evidence led;

Globally oriented

Mindset: global, networked;

Approach: efficient neo-liberal; rational, logical; Systemic approach: systems thinking;

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Myth: regional diversity and devolved power will enable greater resilience and regional flourishing;

Approach: dynamically stable, digitally networked; Systemic approach: unconscious living system â&#x20AC;&#x201C; not sure of the direction or purpose; Bottom up governance

Myth: we are earth, ever growing and evolving; LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Goal: sustainable, flourishing and resilient regions; Identity: strong sense of local identity, sense of being European;

Identity: unique to individuals, made up of a patchwork of affiliations;

Locally oriented

Goal: healthy and flourishing continuum and evolution of living things; Identity: we identify with other living things/beings; Mindset: caring, empathetic;

Mindset: love and respect for of diversity;

Approach: collective action creates unstoppable forces;

Approach: distributed and devolved, valuing different approaches and celebrating diversity;

Systemic approach: living systems co-evolvement;

MODELS

Governance

Strong global, EU and national institutions; centralised power and control;

High trust and participation in politic; new power dynamics driven through ‘Wikidemocracy’;

Talent is concentrated in global organisations creating two classes in society: ‘entrepreneurs’ and ‘super talented multinationals’; Change is driven by multinational companies and governments;

Globally oriented

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Cities track resource flows to protect/ manage multiple ‘Local Loops’; place-based procurement; Owned and controlled data; automated; Global governance and policymaking is focused on scientific expertise; strict global regulation based on global treaties on biodiversity and other environmental issues; emphasis on science-led; Strong, far-sighted and coherent national and EU governments; devolved governance to cities;

Traditional global, EU and national governance systems eroding; decentralised networks, flocks and swarms dominate decision making and governance. These are relevant globally.

Bottom up governance

Local governance dominates; national and European government replaced; LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Locally oriented

Cities formed into selfsufficient neighbourhoods; new municipal partnerships and cooperatives; new models of work and welfare; ‘Public Private People’; High unemployment (in 2014 terms); work takes place collaboratively in hubs;

MODELS

Economy

Dominated by the pursuit of ‘efficient’ monetary growth; The circular economy is a key driver and ambition for many;

Globally oriented

Global economy: equitable economy; faith in enterprise; SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Sharing economy; servicebased consumption; local culture is highly valued and celebrated;

Global economy: digitally based, fragmented, dynamic, based on cryptocurrencies and next evolution of blockchain technologies;

Bottom up governance

LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Global economy: efficient local clustering of business and industry; local employment; Locally oriented

Fragmented sources of income; ‘multi-professional self-employment; microtasks;

Global economy breaksdown; absence of global financial and political systems creates new forms of more localised exchange; Hands-on work that contributes to the community is highly valued; consumption is geared towards meeting basic needs; communal living;

PRACTICES

How people relate to each other in the scenarios Social contract:

Social contract:

Obligation to fulfil one’s potential as an asset to the economy;

Service your own needs; champion and act in the case of others who share those needs;

Participation in systems for electing and action on decisions made by elected officials;

Achievement by acting to make changes in the interest of all, providing they support / are neutral to yours (and you don’t undermine them);

Self-actualisation as an organising principle;

Globally oriented

Attitude towards other:

Attitude towards other: “My uniqueness is my strength”

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Bottom up governance

Social contract: Help to secure resources and safeguard the economy by helping your Professional Guild to flourish; Advocate for your guild and members in the city governance processes, and by support the politicians and policies that will protect Local Loops for Europe; Ecological design as an organising principle; Attitude towards others:

“My needs matter; our needs matter”

Social contract:

LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Care for your neighbour and they will care for you; Invest your time and creativity for the good of the community;

Locally oriented

Fulfilment through supporting those who are less fortunate; Empathy as organising principle. Attitude towards others: “Touch others not just with your hands, but with your heart”

“The beauty of synergy is that it serves to add, not subtract”

PRACTICES

Lifestyles

Automated, smart living has taken over and shapes daily life; Itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a competitive, personalised & data driven world; transparent;

Life is lived in the digital realm, with rules that donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t exist in real world; Globally oriented

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

People helping one another becomes a guiding principle for everyday life; LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Locally oriented

Augmented reality and digital services; emphasis on virtual not material consumption;

Bottom up governance

Business, social life and politics are based on professional communities; Professional Guilds are located within local resource loops;

User-centred; personal optimisation is at the heart of work and welfare;

Technology enables people to use empathy; political decision-making reformed;

PERCEPTIONS

Scenario analogies

Scenarios are a creative tool that require imagination in order to be used most effectively. To help get into the scenarios, weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve characterised the scenarios by making pop culture references to help paint a picture of these worlds.

If it was a country: US

If it was a country: Japan

Pop references: Brave New World

If it was a living organism: slime mold

Globally oriented

If it was a fantasy character: a Leviathan

If it was a film: Hunger Games If it was a place: It would be like a Silicon Valley world If it was a book: Ben Elton or The Circle

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Bottom up governance

If it was a country: India or Greece post 2013

If it was a country: Netherlands If it was a place: City of London in its early days

LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

If it was a sport: football match - basic rules, each game is different If it was a time in history: medieval city states

If it was a fable: Tower of Babel

Locally oriented

If it was a place: preChristian communities where accumulating money was forbidden If it was a time in history: post 1930s / post WW2 rebuild of economies and societies

PERCEPTIONS

Identity and status

Status is achieved through learning and expertise; Less desire for material goods: symbols are consumed more than products;

Globally oriented

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Top down governance

Status gained by hard work and craftsmanship; mutual, problem-based learning and teaching;

Everyone has a patchwork identity and affiliations with many different things;

Bottom up governance

LOCAL LOOPS

EMPATHETIC COMMUNITIES

Strong associations and affiliations to your local area & guild; Locally oriented

Peer-to-peer networks give sense of security and belonging;

Emphasis and importance placed on public health and health prevention; quality of a personâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lifespan is more important than its length; Status relates to local social hierarchies; those with collaborative leadership qualities have a high status and respect;

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Insights from these future scenarios These scenarios are not empirical nor science-based; they are reflections of the opinions of the diverse stakeholders consulted in the scenario-building process. By analysing them, we can explore possibilities for the future that would otherwise have been closed to us. The insights we derive from them don’t constitute evidence, rather, they put forward useful hypotheses and questions for testing and development. Here are some insights we gained from an analysis of how the four societies described in the scenarios have transitioned to a sustainable footing. For instance, the innovations described in the scenarios, and the roles different people play in bringing them about, help us to see how citizens and communities might transform society in different ways to put it on a more sustainable footing. The innovations described also help us to raise questions, such as, why are they particularly important to transformation for sustainability? What patterns in how and when they occur along the imagined pathways to 2050 might shed light on how to use them?

Insight 1. On all four scenario pathways, society develops sophisticated relationships within human and wider living systems that enable people and organisations to pick up and respond to feedback. By 2050, this affords each society the ability to regulate its relationship with living systems so that it can exist in closer equilibrium, and the ability to adapt and evolve in a more agile way. All four of the scenarios have developed more refined ways of making decisions, reconciling conflicts and managing the global commons at all scales; from how individuals conduct themselves in their lives and work, to how communities operate and how economies function, 76

right up to a global level. This happens in different ways and to varying extents, according to the culture of each society with diverse outcomes for the people that live in the four societies. This ability to ‘self-regulate’ is socially constructed. It is in a continual state of change in each scenario: making it dynamic and imperfect and just as easily lost as gained. By 2050, all the scenarios have developed the ability to: • Continually balance resource consumption and interrelationships amongst human activity and wider, living systems, in response to feedback on their state; • Counterbalance intensified consumption in one domain (e.g. energy, food, mobility, housing) with reductions elsewhere, to keep absolute resource consumption at a low level;

The total efficiency and impacts of human activity are managed through: • Developing policies and designs that view and treat the world as an integrated, ‘whole system’, rather than as a collection of separate parts; • Developing ways of living, working and governing ourselves that carry this holistic approach into action; • Instilling a high level of trust in processes of decision-making and the use of power so that most people and organisations are willing to accept decisions and uphold them in practice: notably when it comes to enforcing agreed environmental limits and managing the global commons; • Fostering individuals’ willing and sustained participation in using resources efficiently across all domains and adjusting behaviours in response to feedback.

Question The ability to ‘self-regulate’ is a key difference between the societies described in the four scenarios, and our society today. Could this be a distinguishing capability of a society that’s on a sustainable footing?

Insight 2. All four of the scenarios develop ways of managing their equilibrium with the Earth’s living systems before these systems reach the point of collapse, however, this happens at a different pace and is driven by different factors and circumstances in each scenario In varying ways and with varied outcomes, all four societies manage to develop ways of averting the catastrophic decline of ecosystem health and ecosystem services. While the Governing the Commons and Empathetic Communities scenarios are late to introduce the changes necessary,significant changes in the social conditions of society occur before irreversible tipping points in the stability of living systems, that allow each society to uphold the conditions needed to sustain life. Question The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals focus on meeting a range of targets by 2030. Our analysis of the scenarios suggest that the manner of meeting these targets is just as important as meeting them. In other words, that putting in place the decision-making processes, forms of governance and other social capabilities to go on improving environmental and social outcomes is also vitally important in enable society to make a systemic transition to a sustainable footing. So what are the evolved forms of governing and decision making processes we might see come to life?

Insight 3. The social conditions of society are central to the transition to a sustainable society and to sustainable lifestyles, but they are very hard to measure, manage and predict. Some of the most significant social changes that contribute to transition are to the nature of governance, policy and

policy-making - and the underlying values, beliefs and power dynamics of governance systems. The importance of economic indicators has dwindled by 2050 and is replaced by social indicators. Yet the social changes that occur are so varied, so dependent upon context and so emergent that they aren’t identifiable or measurable using prospective, quantitative indicators. Attempting to pre-empt and design these changes - using quantitative measures that are loaded with today’s assumptionsrisks inadvertently holding back the more radical, social innovations. The uneven proportion of change occurring on the scenario pathways between 20152025 and 2025 – 2050 also suggests a limitation in the use of quantitative data alone for influencing complex change. This challenges the use of individual, quantitative measures to understand and intervene in complex systems to promote sustainable lifestyles. A quantitative indicator-led approach to policy-making could lead to decision-makers focusing on what can be measured in this way, and misalignment of policy with desired outcomes. Questions Our analysis suggests that a traditional, quantitative approach isn’t useful way of understanding the key variables for a sustainable society and complex change over time. What would a more systemic approach look like? How can the application of technologies and design of infrastructures help to reinforce the cultural changes needed in society? Should we orientate change-efforts towards social change rather than towards tackling environmental problems directly?

Insight 4. The changes to the way governance and decision-making happen in society are wrapped up with wider cultural changes in society as a whole - including changes 77

Significant indicators for measuring sustainable lifestyles

Description and relevance for policy and management

Average degree of change in 2050 scenarios, compared with 2015, using Likert Scale

Agency - individual’s ability to act independently and make their own choices in ways that contribute to overall system efficiency in the use of resources.

This can be understood as the constitution of society, which typically refers to the behaviour of the state and institutions of the state, and the principles governing relations with each other and with the state’s citizens.

Significantly more than today

Decision-making philosophies - a society’s capacity to take decisions to manage and control its use of natural resources to support resource efficiency and sustainability

This can be understood as the legislature of society, which typically refers to the (e.g. the Houses of Parliament in the UK) decision making body for public policy. Public policy aims to solve problems efficiently and effectively, serve justice, support governmental institutions and policies, and encourage citizenship so it governs the relationship between government and members of society. Legislature takes place in dramatically different ways compared with today, within and across the SPREAD scenarios.

Significantly more than today

A society’s capacity to implement public policy through ambitious, fair and mutually compliant responses to support resource efficiency and sustainability.

This can be understood as the executive and judiciary of society. Executive organisations make policy decisions and regulations (secondary legislation). Many executive organizations exist, for example, to take responsibility for education, health, defence, foreign affairs, public finances, energy, environment, housing, rural affairs, etc.

A large increase from today.

It creates, enforces and interprets law. The judiciary is made up of judges, magistrates and courts that apply the law and resolve disputes. The interpretations of the judiciary can extend the state’s legislation, e.g. in the UK by case law.

Table 1: The social conditions needed for sustainable lifestyles

to capitalism itself. This makes cultural change important and difficult to separate into components parts. The four societies’ relationship with living systems and the ways of organising that develop are indistinguishable from other cultural changes that alter notions of prosperity, well-being, education, income and employment and what it means to be a member of society. Question It seems that fundamental transformation is required for sustainability, way beyond what is currently being talked about. How can we influence change towards a new paradigm when it is close to unimaginable?

Insight 5. All actors play resisting and contributing roles to the shifts that take place along the scenario pathways; they all play a part in influencing change - whether deliberate or not. On this basis, policy-making and

government institutions can play the role of enabler or blocker. Policy interventions have a strong effect on shaping the scenario pathways: if and when interventions take place, their scope, emphasis, implementation and impact have a strong bearing on the first ten years of all four scenario pathways. Early action and advocacy by elected officials and mainstream policy-making and governmental institutions is associated with greater stability and more gradual change along the scenario pathways. Inaction in response to systemic environmental, economic and social challenges tends to produce periods of deep crisis in society, disruption and radical change. In all four scenarios, the economic growth imperative guides interventions during the first ten years and this leads to further environmental decline before complex changes occur to reverse it. In all cases, the timing and rationale for interventions by established institutions is in response to a perceived threat to economic growth – meaning that the

selection and nature of the interventions is initially orientated towards this goal. This also means that interventions are orientated towards enabling technological in pursuit of short-term economic growth and competitiveness, rather than on enabling systemic change and the transformation of society as a whole. Questions Radical, social changes are difficult to quantify and, by measuring the wrong things, we may not be providing the right incentives. How can we manage and enable this complex transition? Could policy-making itself, be a key site for innovation towards a more sustainable society?

Insight 6. There is an expanding role for citizens and civil society - acting on their own and in fresh combinations with public sector organisations and business - in bringing about these changes because opportunities for social innovation are widening with greater access to digital platforms, data and services. On all four scenario pathways, while policy concentrates on intellectual property and technological innovation, citizens are increasingly motivated and able to operate across traditional boundaries to forge not just whole new ways of organising, living, producing and consuming, but new philosophies, beliefs and cultural norms. For these reasons, they are impactful agents of change; developing niche practices and ecosystems that influence and displace aspects of the mainstream when the conditions arise. In three of the four scenarios, the new structures, goals and paradigms generated by citizens, communities and entrepreneurs as they imagine, create and bring ideas to life play a vital role in transition. Most often, this takes place ‘outside’ the status quo so is not initiated or enabled by policy at the outset; rather, it is the collision of wider circumstances

that creates the conditions for it to happen and to grow in scale to influence the status quo. Questions How can we enable citizens to use their influence for positive impact? How can we support them in solving some of the underlying problems of our world and to avoid perpetuating them?

Insight 7. The propensity, mindset, values and motivation of individuals to innovate over the course of their lifetimes becomes increasingly important in influencing social and cultural change. When innovating for social and cultural change, there is a strong interconnection between the means and ends of innovation. Distinct from technological innovation, innovating the governance structures, goals and paradigm of society involves not only the outputs of processes of innovation, but the beliefs, norms and other ‘social goods’ produced during these collaborative processes of innovation, as well as the values and mindsets that innovators bring and build through them. This places an emphasis on enabling the innovator rather than the ‘innovation’ and on enabling innovators to to live the change they want to create, in order to develop initiatives to bring it into reality. This emphasis on the ‘innovator’ is underlined by the notion that the same forces affording people more agency to innovate for sustainable lifestyles could also be a force for empowering people to resist and undermine the transition. Focusing on the attributes, skills and capabilities of individuals is a way of influencing the drive, diversity, and direction of innovation to enable the transition. Question How can we best enable innovators to live the change they want to create?

How are citizens contributing to change in the scenarios? The scenarios depict a wide variety of ways in which citizens drive change. Below you can find a summary of these different typologies of innovation at different scales: product and service, place and network based, governance and decision-making, as well as at the level of paradigm.

What is it and how does it contribute to systemic change?

Examples of this type of innovation led by citizens in the scenarios

Product and service innovation New products, services and experience systems, both virtual and real, help to de-materialise consumption, affecting brand communications, marketing and retail.

In Governing the Commons, households’ enthusiasm for distributed, digital fabrication leads to radical new processes for product-service design, consumption and production, disrupting supply chains. Against a backdrop of commodity price volatility, citizens start experimenting with reclaiming and re-manufacturing waste and this drives a rapid shift to a circular materials economy.

These improve resource efficiency and the social and environmental impacts of the economy, while furthering consumption and growth.

In the Singular Super Champions scenario, innovative citizens work with well-known brands to develop service experiences that are so personalised, empathetic and desirable that they diffuse quickly into the mainstream. This is a turning point in the materials intensity of the economy, and in citizens’ trust in business.

Place and network-related innovation A diverse range of activities shape how places develop and how people and organisations within them behave, including: ways of working; organisational forms; value networks, visions and strategies; and infrastructure improvements. These activities reconfigure the design of energy, food, mobility, housing and materials systems in a geography. A whole system approach unlocks extra material efficiencies in that geography, altering resource use and lifestyle norms, while responding to social and environmental issues such as climate change, inequality, biodiversity loss.

In the Local Loops scenario, a long period of economic stagnation in Europe and supply disruptions in resources leads pioneering artisans to forge new associations for living and working to enable them to better-compete with global corporations in their area. Called ‘Modern Guilds’, they become thriving hubs of inter-regional trade, making use of locally available materials. They re-energise local pride and identity, rebuild social capital and final informal ways of servicing Guilds’ interests (e.g. through new roles that help forge local value networks) in the absence of public funds. Over time, the Guild model is picked up by policy-makers looking for ways of reigniting domestic economies and protecting the EU from growing global resource insecurity. They are the catalyst for an EU ‘Local Loops’ policy framework and lead to hyper-local lifestyles and carefully managed, circular, regional bio-economies. In the Empathetic Communities scenario network-related innovation is chaotic: a reaction to a second financial crisis that society can’t seem to bounce back from. Urban neighbourhoods form cooperatives to secure their access to food, energy and other basic resources. Over time, digitally-enabled cooperative platforms, urban farming and local micro-grids allow people to find alternative ways of subsisting that offer stability amidst economic uncertainty. This stops consumerism in its tracks and produces a massive drop in resource use and climate change impacts.

Governance, decision-making and participation in society Activities relating to the overall governance or management of society (for instance, its constitution, legislature, executive and judiciary functions) affect how collective decision-making happens, and also shapes human relations (trust, empathy, accountability). Innovations span education, civil society and finance, shaping how individuals manage themselves, their social participation, their identity, how they deal with conflict, exchange value and so on.

In Governing the Commons, the inability of government institutions to usher nation states through the uncertainty of the 21st century leaves individuals so disillusioned with democracy that they create new, platforms for dialogue and processes for community building, conflict resolution and decision making for themselves. These new forms of citizen-to-citizen democracy implement a comprehensive and globally accountable approach to managing carbon emissions that succeeds where all other attempts had failed. Wrapped up with all of this, individuals’ identities shift from being attached to national borders to being attached to personal values and interests. These more fluid and global identities lead to forms of democracy that transcend traditional borders and geographies of trust; improving the speed and agility with which society can respond to planetary scale issues. In the Singular Super Champions scenario the need to compete on the global stage gives rise to a new education system that identifies and nurtures individuals to realise their greatest potential as productive participants in the economy. People follow development tracks that match their aptitudes with economic priorities. While this education system’s entrenched inequalities strain social relations in 2050, it plays a vital role in creating reducing resource consumption. It instils a civic duty in people to optimise their personal performance and entrust their data to smart devices to allow the government to make the materials economy ever more efficiently. Busy employees and consumers spend large amount of leisure time on self-improvement and willingly delegate decisionmaking to algorithms to guide their lifestyle choices from their diet, to getting around.

Paradigm innovation These activities have an intangible yet profound effect on culture, affecting everything we do and how we do it. They do this by reforming our most fundamental beliefs, accepted wisdoms and assumptions and the language we use to understand the world - including our perception of ‘self’, of humanity, and our attitudes towards the future.

In the Empathetic Communities scenario, an extended period of social and economic turmoil follows a second financial collapse in which millions of people lost their life savings. This brings capitalism into question and, in response, transhumanism enters the mainstream. Citizens embark on a project of self-transformation as a route to transforming the human condition and reaching for a better way of living and being. With help from advanced technologies, they experiment with how to make empathy with each other and with wider living systems, the central organising principle of their lives. When the European economy finally reaches the point of collapse, the alternative myths and models for frugal living forged through the empathy movement offer people an achievable and inspiring way out of crisis. In the Local Loops scenario, there’s a gradual, less profound paradigm change, but it plays just as important a role in realising the eventual 2050 scenario and its dramatic reductions in resource use. Spurred by the need to build local resilience, the first ‘Modern Guilds’ were intrinsically embedded with regional bio-economies in order to manage access to resources and adaptation to compete with global conglomerates. As Guilds scaled-up across Europe, their story of local resilience and needing to better attune human systems with living systems spread with them. Instituted by an EU-wide framework, a guiding philosophy of renewal, and equilibrium eventually replaces that of economic growth.

How we used the scenarios

Forum for the Future used these scenarios to test multiple different use cases of the scenarios. During 2016 alone, 110 people used and tested the scenarios in a variety of workshops and experiences. “The scenarios made me realise that the mindset I bring to the work I do really makes a difference” “I’m realising the future I am building isn’t necessarily the one I want to live in.”

Expert

Use of scenario being tested

Citizen innovators

Can the scenarios be used to help people think about the mindset and role they’re bringing to their work? Can the scenarios be used as a systemic tool that are used to confront people with the ideas of uncertainty, change, and interconnectedness?

Designers

Can the scenarios be used to situate design in tomorrow’s critical context? Can the scenarios be used as a systemic tool that is used to confront people with uncertainty, change, and interconnectedness?

Foundations

How might the scenarios help foundations to think differently about the activities they fund and the support they provide?

Business

How might the scenarios increase organisational capacity for long-term and strategic thinking? How might the scenarios challenge businesses to stretch their thinking about the future and expand their perspectives about where innovation is coming from?

Did you find the scenarios a useful method for exploring how design can shape the future? How so? “The scenarios challenged me to think about how to apply my values in scenarios where that would seem to contradict them. i.e.. Applying self direction to highly localised and nationalised scenario.“ “I particularly thought they provided good stimulus for exploring ‘What it might mean to be alive in the future?’. I observed that we dealt with some aspects of the scenarios on a day to day level, and for me the really interesting and provocative question was the cultural, existential, paradigm/values/ language shift needed for a sustainable society.” “I really loved exploring all the scenarios. What I value about this methodology in terms of practice is that it makes you think about implications instead of applications.” “We run a lot of strategic projects, this could be a really great way to tease out the different change levers and test and evaluate different approaches.” “We’ve been looking for an entrance into systems thinking - everything we’ve looked at doesn’t work, this [nb. The scenarios] might be the perfect starting point.”

The key insights from testing the scenarios are that: • The scenarios are an effective tool for people exploring strategy, new ideas, collaboration and to surface deeper reflection about their own role and mindset in creating sustainable change. • The subject matter of the scenarios is so vast, and could allow for so many different conversations, that the framing of the use of the scenarios is really important. We found we needed to tailor the framing to the different audiences, based on their needs, each time to ensure they take something from it and don’t feel overwhelmed. • Scenarios play two key functions: Firstly, they encourage speculation across a widely varied set of alternative futures, and secondly, they enable a back-casting approach that begins with the assumption of radical longterm change. The assumption of a drastically changed future society enabled participants to think of change as different possible pathways. As one participant commented, “There’s always a step between an innovation and a big change in the world.” • Scenarios are not end states - they enable people to imagine possible future pathways, with no guarantee that onward pathways will develop in sustainable or socially just directions. Applications of the scenarios can depict worlds in which levels of divisiveness, inequality and deprivation are equal to, or even worse than those of today.

What are the implications for you?

Our investigations as part of the EU InnovatE project have taken us to the future and back, and they’ve raised exciting questions about the expanding opportunities for organisations and individuals to help shift our society onto a sustainable footing in Europe. What’s clear, is that our future is uncertain and that processes of change will unfold in unexpected ways and in unexpected places. Our best chance of furthering a sustainable society is diverse people and organisations to act within their own sphere of influence and to find new ways of collaborating with others to leverage this for impact. If you’re a civil society organisation, you could play a role in the transition to a sustainable society. For example, how could you help forge new ways of individuals to participate in society and relate with to another, beyond consumerist choices? Could you experiment with new forms of governance?

What untapped opportunities are there for you to collaborate with others to overcome the barriers? If you’re an established business, you could play a role in the transition to a sustainable society. For example, how could you help to bring about a whole system approach to managing the efficiency and impacts of the materials economy? How can you use your scale and reach to bring about changes not just in the technologies that form our infrastructures, but to the design of these systems? If you’re a small entrepreneur, you could play a role in the transition to a sustainable society. For example, as you find new ways of creating and sharing value, how could you de-materialise markets? What opportunities are there for you to collaborate with others to grow markets that will help upgrade our infrastructures and improve the efficiency with which we use them?

If you’re a citizen innovator, you could play a role in the transition to a sustainable society. For example, how could you be a maverick to bring about the cultural and social changes needed in society? As you follow your passions, how can you blaze a trail towards better lifestyles? If you’re a policy-maker, you could play a role in the transition to a sustainable society. For example, how could you take a systemic approach to diagnosing, responding and understanding interventions?

Graphic recording of our workshop at OuiShare Fest, Paris 2016.

You’re invited! Join us for further experiments... Unlocking the power of citizens to bring the future forward will take many people, trying out new approaches and learning as we go. It won’t be an easy ride: there are challenges and failures ahead and so we need brave people who are willing to walk into a different future, try new ways of doing things and come face to face with the unknown. Are you game? At Forum for the Future, we’re starting to experiment with a few things that we hope will contribute to this bigger journey. Which one will you be part of?

For more information about the methodology, please visit: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/research/ foresight/ses

Living Change event series We know change starts at the level of the individual, but we know it isn’t easy, so we’ve piloted an event series for those people committed to innovating systems and who is creating change in the world, whilst committed to living change themselves. Sessions take place every other month, in London. To find out more, visit www.forumforthefuture.org/ forum-network/events and sign up for our Network events bulletin.

Explore the possibilities online Scenario Exploration Game We have created a boardgame version of the scenarios, adopting the award-winning ‘Scenario Exploration System’ developed by the EU Joint Research Council in collaboration with experts in serious games from the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. If you’re interested to find out more about it or to play it with your organisation, get in touch using the contact emails at the end of the report.

As William Gibson famously said, “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed”. Join our community and share examples of how citizens are innovating for a sustainable society. When you see little changes around you that you think might help change the game in the long run (we call them ‘signals of change’) share them with us! www.thefuturescentre.org/citizensbringing-future-forward | @FuturesCentre 85

The Next Wave In response to our explorations through EU InnovatE, we are in the early stages of contributing to a community of people and co-developing a series of projects which look at new ways for society to organise itself to address the complex challenges of our time.

Corina Angheloiu c.angheloiu@forumforthefuture.org

‘The major problems in the world are the result of the difference between how nature works and the way people think’ (Bateson, 2010).

Louise Armstrong

“If you want to really restructure a system so that we can have a peaceful, just, or sustainable world – that means changing the paradigm in our heads” (Meadows, 1991).

g.adams@forumforthefuture.org

(Landscape) The Next Wave is the paradigm shift that is emerging in people’s mindsets, behaviours, and societal structures that has potential to address the complex challenges of our time. It builds on a growing body of research and wisdom which depicts societal development as evolving through waves. (Impact) The Next Wave amplifies and accelerates this BIGshift, the fundamental changes in our economic models, societal norms and ways we operate, towards a society that has the ability to sustain itself, where we see ourselves as part of our living systems. (Approach) The Next Wave is a programmatic area of work, developed by the System Change Lab at Forum for the Future, which uses a set of tactics, methods and interventions to midwife the #theBIGshift. Read more about what’s in the pipeline at www.systemschangelab.org.

Reach out! We’d love to hear how you can help with these experiments, and your suggestions for more:

l.armstrong@forumforthefuture.org Gemma Adams

#citizeninnovation

Notes and references Notes The scenarios have been co-developed in collaboration with a number of different individuals, organisations and institutions, with thanks to:

School, June 2015; • EU InnovatE PhD Academy, Milan, Sept 2015; • EU InnovatE General Assembly, Munich, Jan 2016;

• The FutureShapers network (future-shapersnetwork.squarespace.com);

• Can citizens shape the future? London workshop, Feb 2016;

• ABIS: Simon Pickard, Marco Matrisciano, Patrick Niemann;

• Future Policy workshop Copenhagen Business School, Feb 2016;

• Aalto University: Jennifer Goodman, Angelina Korsunova, Prof. Minna Halme;

• Open Innovation Summit, London, April 2016;

• Cranfield School of Management: Rosina Watson, Prof. Liz Varga, Prof. Emma McDonald, Christine Mera, Prof. Hugh Wilson; • Copenhagen Business School: Kristian Roed Nielsen, Prof. Lucia Reisch, Laura Reinon; • Eindhoven University of Technology: Dr. Bram Verhees, Prof. Geert Verbong; • ESADE: Sonia Ruiz Mas, Xavier Fernández i Marín, Prof Simon Dolan; • Forum for the Future: Corina Angheloiu, Gemma Adams, Louise Armstrong, James Goodman, Anna Birney, Kester Byass, Charlene Collison, Amy Mason, David Bent; • Joint Research Council: Dr. Laurent Bontoux; • Technichal University Munich: Prof. Frank Belz, Julia Binder, Reinhard von Wittken; • ...And all other EU InnovatE Partners. The futures work builds on the EU Commission project SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050, an European social platform project which ran from January 2011 to December 2012. The corresponding scenarios have been developed by Demos Helsinki (www.demoshelsinki.fi). For more information on the original scenarios, follow this link: http://www. demoshelsinki.fi/en/julkaisut/from-local-loopsto-global-champions-scenarios-for-sustainablelifestyles-2050-2/. Workshops and events that have supported the creation of the scenario and insights in this document: • FutureShapers workshop, Berlin, June 2014; • FutureShapers workshop, London, June 2014; • EU InnovatE General Assembly, Munich, Jan 2015;

• OuiShare Festival, Paris, May 2016; • Sustainability Exchange, online event hosted by Cranfield University and Globescan, May 2016; • EU InnovatE final conference, Nov 2016. Scenario futures artefacts developed by Joanna Casaca Lemos, PhD candidate at Central St Martins, London - in collaboration with Forum for the Future, summer 2014. All images used for the scenarios collages have been selected from public domain sources (CC0).

References Bontoux, L., Bengtsson, D., European Commission, & Joint Research Centre. (2015). 2035: paths towards a sustainable EU economy : sustainable transitions and the potential of eco-innovation for jobs and economic development in EU ecoindustries 2035. Luxembourg: Publications Office. Retrieved from http://bookshop.europa.eu/ uri?target=EUB:NOTICE:KJ0415924:EN:HTML Goodman, J., Korsunova, A., & Halme, M., (2017) Our Collaborative Future: Activities and Roles of Stakeholders in Sustainability-Oriented Innovation. Business Strategy and the Environment. Wiley online DOI: 10.1002/bse.1941 Leppänen, J., Neuvonen, A., Ritola, M., Ahola, I., Hirvonen, S., Hyötyläinen, M., Kaskinen, T., Kauppinen, T., Kuittinen, O., Kärki, K., Lettenmeier, M., Mokka, R. (2013). Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops. Retrieved from UNEP/Wuppertal Institute Collaborating Centre on Sustainable Consumption and Production (CSCP): http://www.sustainablelifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/D4.1_ FourFutureScenarios.pdf.

• Policy workshop Copenhagen Business 87