INTELLIGENCE UPDATE Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak – March 2, 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS CURRENT SITUATION │3 Travel and Health Advisory │3 Infections and Deaths by Territory and Country │4 Chinese Government Measures │6 Work Cancellations│7 Medical Services│7 Travel Restrictions│7 Social and Political Issues│8
Global and Special Territory Measures │8 Travel Restrictions│8 Evacuations│8
Virus Factsheet │8
BUSINESS RISKS │9 Business Continuity│9 Political Advisory│10 Security Response Benchmarking │10
RECOMMENDATIONS │10 EMERGENCY CONTACTS │11
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CURRENT SITUATION As of March 2, 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic is showing signs of slowing in mainland China, with new daily infections in the low to mid hundreds in Hubei Province, and routinely down to single digits in all other provinces combined. This is in stark contrast to the exponential growth now seen in a number of countries outside of China, and the continued discovery of infections in new geographies. Deputy Director Chen Yixin, of the team sent by the central government to manage the outbreak in Hubei, said on March 1 that the outbreak in Wuhan has been “effectively contained.” The Chinese government’s priority is to ensure the continued smooth resumption of normal life and business. This includes close monitoring for new cases of the disease as people get back to work, and preventing new imported cases from re-infecting people in China. Tighter health screenings have been adopted at the border, and some provinces and municipalities are introducing mandatory self-quarantine for arrivals from affected countries, including Japan and South Korea. All passengers arriving in China must file a personal health report and have their body temperature taken at customs. Before international flights arrive in China, National Immigration Administration officials will have already screened travelers from certain countries and regions using big data analysis. Meanwhile, cities across China are adopting a QR-based system to control movement in cities. These new travel restrictions may further complicate business travel. G4S recommends that all proposed travel to, from and within China undergo a review of anti-epidemic measures to avoid unforeseen difficulties. Highlights: ▪
As of 11 p.m. on Monday Mar. 2, China local time, there were 89,253 confirmed cases and 3,048 deaths. South Korea (4,335), Italy (1,694) and Iran (978) have experienced a surge in infections.
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The CDC has issued a “Level 1” travel advisory for Hong Kong, due to the rising number of infections in the city. The advisory recommends practicing usual precautions, including frequent hand washing and avoiding the sick. While mild, the advisory is the first step on a ladder of warnings, and clients should expect escalations. The political situation is complex, with a number of important developments related to the epidemic, as well as the surprise appointment of a new head of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office.
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A second wave of infections remains possible as work and life slowly begin to normalize in most cities in China. Such a turn of events would likely prompt even stricter anti-epidemic measures.
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Escalating outbreaks in other countries are further complicating travel in and out China, as the Chinese government responds with additional travel measures at several levels of government.
Travel and Health Advisory U.S. government agencies maintain strict China travel advisories. ▪
The U.S. Department of State advisory remains at Level 4, Do Not Travel, for all of China. On Feb. 11, the Department of State said that it allowed non-essential personnel to leave the Consulate in Hong Kong. It advises that those currently in China should attempt to depart using commercial means. For those who stay in China, it advises following CDC guidelines and stocking up on food to limit movement outside the home. The CDC has issued a Level 3 alert recommending the avoidance of all non-essential travel to China.
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According to the World Health Organization (WHO), some 72 state parties have implemented restrictions on foreign nationals with travel history in China. Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan have implemented restrictions on mainland Chinese. Many airlines have limited or suspended China services (see list here).
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The WHO risk assessment in Situation Report 41 published March 1 is as follows: China: Very High; Regionally: Very High; Globally: Very High.
Infections and Deaths by Territory and Country The table below shows the latest number of confirmed cases of infection and death tied to the coronavirus in China, other countries and special territories. Figure – Table of Infections and Deaths by Area and Country Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Infection Numbers – 11:00 p.m. Mar. 2, China Local Time Total Confirmed Infections: 89,253 Deaths: 3,048 Recovered: 45,175 Province/Region/ Municipality
Infected/Deaths
Province/Region/ Municipality
Infected/Deaths
Hubei/Wuhan
67,103; 2,803 dead
Shaanxi
245; 1 dead
Guangdong
1,350; 7 dead
Yunan
174; 2 dead
Henan
1,272; 22 dead
Hainan
168; 5 dead
Zhejiang
1,206; 1 dead
Guizhou
146; 2 dead
Hunan
1,018; 4 dead
Tianjin
136; 3 dead
Anhui
990; 6 dead
Shanxi
133; 0 dead
Jiangxi
935; 1 dead
Liaoning
122; 1 dead
Shandong
758; 6 dead
Hong Kong
98; 2 dead
Jiangsu
631; 0 dead
Jilin
93; 1 dead
Chongqing
576; 6 dead
Gansu
91; 2 dead
Sichuan
538; 3 dead
Xinjiang
76; 3 dead
Heilongjiang
480; 13 dead
Inner Mongolia
75; 0 dead
Beijing
414; 8 dead
Ningxia
74; 0 dead
Shanghai
337; 3 dead
Qinghai
18; 0 dead
Hebei
318; 6 dead
Macau
10; 0 dead
Fujian
296; 1 dead
Tibet
1; 0 dead
Guangxi
252; 2 dead
Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak Infection Country/Area Numbers Total Countries with Confirmed Infections: 67, including China Country/Area
Infected/Deaths
Country/Area
Infected/Deaths
South Korea
4,335; 26 dead
Oman
6; 0 dead
Italy
1,694; 34 dead
Mexico
5; 0 dead
Iran
978; 54 dead
Denmark
4; 0 dead
Japan
256; 6 dead
Pakistan
4; 0 dead
Germany
150; 0 dead
Algeria
3; 0 dead
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France
130; 2 dead
Azerbaijan
3; 0 dead
Spain
120; 0 dead
Czech Republic
3; 0 dead
Singapore
106; 0 dead
Georgia
3; 0 dead
United States
86; 2 dead
Iceland
3; 0 dead
Bahrain
47; 0 dead
India
3; 0 dead
Kuwait
45; 0 dead
Philippines
3; 1 dead
Thailand
43; 1 dead
Qatar
3; 0 dead
Taiwan
41; 1 dead
Romania
3; 0 dead
UK
36; 0 dead
Indonesia
2; 0 dead
Australia
29; 1 dead
Belgium
2; 0 dead
Malaysia
29; 0 dead
Brazil
2; 0 dead
Switzerland
27; 0 dead
Egypt
2; 0 dead
Canada
24; 0 dead
Russia
2; 0 dead
UAE
21; 0 dead
Afghanistan
1; 0 dead
Iraq
19; 0 dead
Armenia
1; 0 dead
Norway
19; 0 dead
Belarus
1; 0 dead
Vietnam
16; 0 dead
Cambodia
1; 0 dead
Austria
14; 0 dead
Dominican Republic
1; 0 dead
Canada
14; 0 dead
Estonia
1; 0 dead
Sweden
14; 0 dead
Ireland
1; 0 dead
Israel
10; 0 dead
Lithuania
1; 0 dead
Lebanon
10; 0 dead
Luxembourg
1; 0 dead
Netherlands
10; 0 dead
Monaco
1; 0 dead
San Marino
8; 0 dead
Nepal
1; 0 dead
Croatia
7; 0 dead
New Zealand
1; 0 dead
Greece
7; 0 dead
Nigeria
1; 0 dead
Ecuador
6; 0 dead
North Macedonia
1; 0 dead
Finland
6; 0 dead
Sri Lanka
1; 0 dead
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The map and chart below show the location of confirmed cases of infection and death tied to the coronavirus. Figure – Map and Chart of Confirmed Global Cases of Coronavirus
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)
Chinese Government Measures China has allocated more than $10 billion to combat the epidemic with preventive measures continuing to escalate. The state of epidemic response and recovery may vary greatly from place to place, even within a single municipality. For example although Shanghai on the whole has significantly relaxed restrictions, allowing for the resumption of business, G4S is anecdotally aware that some housing compounds have escalated the monitoring of residents’ movements. Clients are advised to research their own areas of operations and residence to ascertain the most accurate and up-to-date information.
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The government has encouraged companies to take anti-epidemic measures as people return to work. This may include basic temperature checks, inquiries into travel history and flexible working arrangements.
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The government has taken new steps to monitor interprovincial travel, including inspecting geolocation data from mobile devices to determine the travel history of individuals; China’s mobile carriers have facilitated this by introducing a new texting service that sends geolocation history to users upon request. However, generally speaking, travel remains relatively free except in epicenter areas in Hubei, as well as Wenzhou in Zhejiang. Travelers coming from or passing through epicenter areas face scrutiny, including monitored self-quarantine. Some locations are using technology to track quarantined individuals.
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A QR-based color coded system that controls movement by allowing individual access to public transportation, buildings and so on is now being adopted in many cities in China, including Beijing and Shanghai. The system is not yet fully implemented, and there are challenges to adapting the system for foreigners, who do not have a national ID number. These apps are not mutually recognized across cities.
Work Cancellations ▪
Adjustments and cancellations to normal work and school schedules are widespread throughout China. As in other epidemic countermeasures, these may vary significantly from place to place, and clients are advised to research their own locations. It is possible that work schedules may not normalize until March or later.
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Schools in some areas, including Shanghai, have announced that the new semester will be taught online.
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Companies must meet certain inspection and registration requirements before resuming operations. A circular released by the State Council guiding local governments is available here (in Chinese). Companies should check with local regulators for specific requirements.
Medical Services ▪
Medical services outside severely impacted areas are currently operating normally, with limited signs of strained capacity.
Travel Restrictions ▪
At least 16 cities in Hubei province have adopted quarantine measures of some kind, including shutting down airports and railways. On Feb. 16, Hubei instituted a province-wide vehicle ban.
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China’s National Railway Group announced on Feb. 15 that in addition to no longer selling standing-room only tickets, it began limiting sales for seats. This will reduce train capacity by 50%.
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There are travel and public transit restrictions of various degrees throughout China. If traveling, clients are advised to research their route and destination to ascertain up-to-date information.
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On Feb. 21, Beijing relaxed rules on an earlier-announced mandatory 14-day quarantine period for all visitors to the city. Exemptions include: 1.) Overseas arrivals who have not traveled in China for the previous 14 days, and who enter the country at Beijing Capital Airport or Daxing Airport; 2.) Short-term tourists and business travelers arriving from parts of China outside Hubei, provided they comply with the health measures put in place by their hotels or employers; 3.) Those returning to jobs in Beijing, provided their employer has implemented “closed-management” systems and health checks.
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Social and Political Issues ▪
A wave of intense public anger over the crisis, in particular the revelation that the Wuhan government suppressed some early information, appears to have subsided to a degree. The risk of significant social unrest is low. It is unclear what the long-term political consequences of the epidemic may be.
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Media controls have been tightened significantly. Media reports indicate stricter application of censorship controls on WeChat. G4S is aware of anecdotal reports of censors blocking WeChat accounts of individuals sending messages in Chinese that are critical of the government in small private chat groups.
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There is a risk of social instability in Hong Kong. Public anger over the government’s refusal to seal the border with mainland China resulted in a strike among healthcare workers, which ended on Feb. 7 after the government tightened border controls. There has been a string of bombing incidents and threats, also aimed at forcing the government to seal the border, and numerous locally-focused protests against quarantine sites. With public trust in the administration of Chief Executive Carrie Lam still severely damaged from the political crisis last year, her handling of the virus and the attendant social and economic impacts will be significantly more difficult. Clients should prepare for the possibility of a return of violence.
Global and Special Territory Measures Preventive measures taken by the international community and China’s special administrative territories also continue to escalate. Travel Restrictions Airports across the world have introduced enhanced screening measures to prevent the further international spread of the disease. According to a report by the WHO, at least 72 state parties have implemented travel restrictions on foreign nationals who have been in China. Although specific regulations may vary, foreign nationals are typically barred entry if they have been in China within the past 14 days upon arrival at customs. At least 43 airlines around the world have suspended flights to China: a list compiled by Reuters is available here. The WHO is working on recommendations for resuming flights. Travel has been limited between the mainland and other Chinese territories. Hong Kong and Macau have announced temporary bans on travelers coming from Wuhan or Hubei. Authorities in Hong Kong have announced the temporary closure of 10 of its 14 border crossings with China and a halt to the issuing of travel permits for mainland Chinese. There is a mandatory quarantine on anyone arriving from mainland China for 14 days and flights to the mainland are greatly reduced. Evacuations Many nations have confirmed at least limited evacuations of their citizens living in Wuhan. The U.S. Department of State advises that those currently in China should consider departing using commercial means, and it has ordered the departure of all family members of U.S. personnel in China under the age of 21. A list compiled by Reuters of evacuations by country is available here.
Virus Factsheet Key aspects of the Wuhan coronavirus, or “2019nCoV,” are still relatively poorly understood. The following information is derived from WHO Situation Reports and other sources: ▪
Incubation Period: 1-14 days, but generally 3-7 days. Recent research by a Chinese team found that the incubation period could be as long as 24 days. The Hubei government has said the
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incubation period could be as long as 27 days, based on data from one case. According to the WHO, the median incubation period has been further refined to 5-6 days. ▪
Severity: Most people display relatively mild symptoms. Current estimates suggest that about 15% progress to severe disease with 3% becoming critical, including pneumonia and respiratory failure. The mortality rate for confirmed infections is about 2%, with some experts expecting this number to fall as milder cases are found. However, these preliminary estimations should be treated with caution. The mortality rate of seasonal flu is below 0.1%.
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Transmissibility: The virus is human transmissible. Recent research by Chinese scientists supports asymptomatic spread and concludes that the virus behaves similarly to the flu, suggesting that it may spread more easily than previously thought. Chinese researchers have documented the case of a woman who spread the virus to five family members without showing symptoms herself. In Chengdu, a recovered patient was readmitted to hospital after once again testing positive for the virus (an earlier test may have been a false negative). On Feb. 22, Wuhan subsequently mandated 14 days’ quarantine for all patients cured of the virus. The reproduction number of the virus, expressed as “R0” (R-naught), which indicates how many additional infections will result from each infection, remains uncertain. In a disease with a value R-naught = 1 each infection would be expected to cause one additional infection; the WHO published an estimated R-naught of 1.4 to 2.5, although some teams have placed this number higher. o
Routes of transmission are believed to include respiratory droplets and close physical contact. It is also likely that the disease is transmissible via contact with contaminated surfaces, where the virus may survive for some time. There is little evidence of transmission via the fecal-oral route. There has been some misinformation that the virus may be able to spread long distances through the air. This is false.
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Treatment: The only proven available treatment for the disease is standard supportive care. There is anecdotal evidence that anti-viral and AIDS drugs may be useful in treating patients, but these treatments have not yet been validated.
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Scrutiny of Infection Numbers and Data: Reported infection figures in China are generally believed to be credible, although some experts have noted that because patients with milder symptoms may go undiagnosed, total infections may be higher. A number of cities in China have banned the sale of over-the-counter flu medicines in attempts to force people to check themselves into hospital, suggesting concern over the possibility of underreported infections, although such policies may be an overreaction. Chinese domestic and international media has extensively report on what is believed to be an effort by the Wuhan local government limit reporting of the epidemic in its early stages. However, there is no credible evidence that the Chinese government is currently manipulating infections figures.
BUSINESS RISKS Business Continuity The coronavirus outbreak presents a heightened business risk environment for multinational corporations and others operating in China. The introduction of quarantine measures and travel restrictions present a significant business continuity challenge for businesses dependent on person-to-person services and transactions, such as those operating in the tourism, hospitality, retail, retail-based financial services and banking sectors, among others. In addition, the closure of production facilities and travel bans are creating supply-chain challenges and logistical problems for the transfer of goods, equipment and the ability for employees to reach their places of work. Clients are advised to remain up to date with national and local regulations related to the crisis, and to note that measures adopted by provincial and local governments in China may not be uniform.
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On a broader level, the coronavirus outbreak is generating market uncertainty and having a negative impact on the already ailing Chinese economy, with growing fears of a recession. Analysts fear that the outbreak could still negatively affect markets in Europe, Asia and the Americas. This past week, the Dow experienced its worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. Whether planning to mitigate the heightened medical or business risk environment, companies — especially, but not limited to, those with a footprint in China — should prepare for the crisis and its potential negative effects to be felt for months rather than weeks.
Political Advisory In addition to being a health emergency, the virus outbreak is also a sensitive political matter for the Chinese state. Reports of anti-Chinese xenophobia in foreign countries as well as diplomatic tensions could increase the level of sensitivity. Clients are advised to remain up to date with national and local regulations related to the crisis, and to note that measures adopted by provincial and local governments in China may not be uniform.
Security Response Benchmarking Multinational firms have begun adopting various policies in response to the outbreak, including the following: ▪
Restricting all non-essential travel to China.
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Allowing flexible working arrangements, including working from home and cancelling outbound travel for Chinese employees who wish to remain with their families.
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For employees returning from China, mandatory work from home for a set period, for example 14 days, to mitigate the risk of passing infection to offices abroad.
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Mandating that employees presenting flu-like symptoms obtain a diagnosis before returning to work.
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A large number of major multinational corporations have closed their offices and stores or suspended operations in mainland China, Hong Kong or both. Google has temporarily shut down all China offices; Walt Disney has closed its resorts in Hong Kong and Shanghai; Apple has closed stores in mainland China; Starbucks and McDonald’s have closed selected locations in mainland China. Several other companies have taken similar steps.
RECOMMENDATIONS Travelers should avoid all non-essential travel to China, according to the CDC and U.S. State Department. If traveling to China, you are recommended to: ▪
Avoid contact with sick people.
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Discuss travel to China with your health care provider. Older adults and travelers with underlying health issues may be at risk for more severe disease.
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Avoid animals (alive or dead), animal markets and products that come from animals (such as uncooked meat).
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Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.
Those who have become ill during a 14-day period following travel to China should:
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Seek medical care right away. Before you go to a doctor’s office or emergency room, call ahead and tell them about your recent travel and your symptoms.
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Avoid contact with others.
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Do not travel while sick.
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Cover your mouth and nose while sneezing with a sleeve or tissue, not with the hands.
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Wash hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer if soap and water are not available.
EMERGENCY CONTACTS U.S. Embassy Beijing No. 55 Anjialou Rd, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, 100600 ▪
Phone: (86-10) 8531-3000
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Alternate Phone: (86-10) 8531-4000
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Email: BeijingACS@state.gov
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Fax: (86-10) 8531-4200
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Website: https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/u-s-citizen-services/
G4S Risk Operations Center For questions regarding this report or for immediate assistance, please call: ▪
G4S Risk Operations Center: (866) 604-1226
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Alternate Phone: (866) 943-8892
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