G7 UK: The Cornwall Summit by Global Governance Project

2021 | globalgovernanceproject.org

Welcome to Cornwall Prime Minister Boris Johnson pledges to build back better

Towards a greener future Driving action on climate change has never been more urgent for the G7

The new normal How can governments safeguard equality in a post-pandemic society?

The Cornwall Summit

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Publisher: Khaled Algaay Director: Tom Kennedy Co-Editor: John Kirton Co-Editor: Madeline Koch Guest Editor: Sir Nicholas Bayne Managing Editors: Emily Eastman and Amanda Simms Contact: 20-22 Wenlock Road, London N1 7GU, United Kingdom Tel: +44 207 6085137 Email: Connect@globalgovernanceproject.org @GloGovProj www.globalgovernanceproject.org G7 Research Group Contributors:

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Meagan Byrd Sonja Dobson Hélène Emorine Jane Filipiuk Hiromitsu Higashi Ella Kokotsis Julia Kulik Maria Marchyshyn Tristen Naylor Chiara Oldani Jessica Rapson Denisse Rudich Brittaney Warren Meredith Williams

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LEADERS’ VIEWS

COOPERATING FOR THE COMMON GOOD Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor on the G7’s responsibility and moving to a post–COVID-19 world

FORGING A NEW NARRATIVE FOR MULTILATERALISM Charles Michel, President of the European Council on collective action

ENVISIONING THE POST-PANDEMIC REALITY Mario Draghi, Prime Minster of Italy, on future challenges

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RESPONDING TO GLOBAL CRISIS Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, describes his country’s pandemic response

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LEADING WITH OUR ALLIES Joe Biden, President of the United States, on how America is back and what an international climate response must entail

A CALL TO ACTION Emmanuel Macron, France’s President, calls for a global response to ending the pandemic

A VIRTUOUS CYCLE Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister of Japan, on creating an upward spiral for the economy and environment

A PATH OUT OF CRISIS Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, on the European Green Deal and a sustainable future

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

BUILDING BACK GREENER AND BETTER The UK’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, calls for global unity

COLLABORATION IN THE FACE OF ADVERSITY Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison on the global community

HOPE ON THE HORIZON Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa’s President, describes what urgent action is needed

EDITORS’ INTRODUCTIONS

WELCOME

BUILDING BACK BETTER AT THE G7’S CORNWALL SUMMIT By John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group

CLIMATE JUSTICE India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi talks about ĀčĘƋĜĹč ÏĬĜĵ±Ƌå change

OPPORTUNITY FROM CRISIS Moon Jae-in, President of Korea, on using the pandemic as a chance to come back stronger

THE UNITED KINGDOM’S APPROACH TO THE G7 By Sir Nicholas Bayne, former British diplomat

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

Contents

G7 PERFORMANCE ON HEALTH By Meagan Byrd, chair of summit studies, G7 Research Group

G7 PERFORMANCE ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY By Jane Filipiuk, G7 Research Group

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WHEN RISK BECOMES REALITY By Angel Gurría, former secretary-general, OECD

BRAIN HEALTH: KEY TO HEALTH, WEALTH AND WELL-BEING By Vladimir Hachinski, former president, World Federation of Neurology

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

THE WTO, TRADE AND THE COVID-19 RECOVERY By Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general, WTO

REALISING TOURISM’S POWER AS A RECOVERY TOOL By Zurab Pololikashvili, secretary-general, UNWTO

VACCINE SUPPLY CHAINS: GROUNDHOG DAY By Simon J Evenett, University of St Gallen

DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL

GLOBAL COMMERCE

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G7 PERFORMANCE ON TRADE By Maria Marchyshyn, lead researcher on trade, G7 Research Group

A YEAR FOR TOUGH DECISIONS By Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, executive secratary to the UNFCCC

COMMITTING TO A GREEN RECOVERY Interview with Achim Steiner, administrator, United Nations Development Programme

CARPHA’S REGIONAL RESPONSE TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC By Joy St John, executive director, CARPHA

WHAT’S NEEDED NOW By Lord Jim O’Neill, chair, Chatham House

IMPROVING G7 PERFORMANCE ON THE ENVIRONMENT By Hélène Emorine, senior researcher, G7 Research Group

SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINABLE STANDARDS By Robert Eccles, visiting professor of management practice, Said Business School, University of Oxford

RACING TO VACCINATE THE WORLD By Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance

G7 PERFORMANCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE By Brittaney Warren, director of policy analysis and lead researcher on climate change, G7 Research Group

AN ECONOMIC BALANCING ACT Interview with Robert Fauver, former US G7 sherpa

BREAKING DOWN VACCINE BARRIERS By Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general, WHO

G7 PERFORMANCE ON DEVELOPMENT By Sonja Dobson, senior researcher, G7 Research Group

RESPONDING TO SYSTEM FAILURES WITH DETERMINATION By Ilona Kickbusch, founding director, Global Health Centre, Graduate Institute

FIGHTING FAMINE: HOW THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY CAN TAKE ACTION By David Beasley, executive director, World Food Programme

LEAVING NO ECONOMY BEHIND By Patricia Scotland, QC, secretary-general of the Commonwealth

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

THE GREEN SHOOTS OF CHANGE By Elizabeth Mrema, executive secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity

G7 PERFORMANCE ON ENERGY By Ella Kokotsis, director of accountability, G7 Research Group

2021: A DEFINING YEAR FOR ENERGY By Francesco La Camera, director-general, International Renewable Energy Agency

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Contents

G7 PERFORMANCE ON CRIME AND CORRUPTION By Denisse Rudich, director, G7 and G20 Research Groups London

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THE EFFECTIVENESS CHALLENGE By Jessica Rapson, senior researcher, G7 Research Group

ESTABLISHING GENERATION EQUALITY Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, UN under-secretarygeneral and executive director of UN Women

REIMAGINING THE FUTURE Henrietta Fore, executive director of UNICEF

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NEW BRANCHES IN THE LABOUR MARKET Guy Ryder, director-general of the International Labour Organization

A DIGITAL WORLD

ACHIEVING GENDER EQUITY

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G7 PERFORMANCE ON DIGITAL INNOVATION By Meredith Williams, lead researcher on digitalisation, G7 Research Group

THE COST OF INCOORDINATION Chiara Oldani, professor of economics at University of Viterbo ‘La Tuscia’

G7 PERFORMANCE ON GOVERNING ARMS CONTROL By Hiromitsu Higashi, researcher at the G7 Research Group

CRIME, CORRUPTION AND CONFLICT

G7 PERFORMANCE ON GENDER EQUALITY By Julia Kulik, director of research, G7 Research Group

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AMERICA IS BACK. NOW WHAT? By Christopher Sands, director, Canada Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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AN ENVIRONMENTAL CALL TO ARMS By Marcus Pleyer, president, Financial Action Task Force

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JOINED FORCES Jürgen Stock, secretary-general of INTERPOL

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ASPIRATIONS AND EXPECTATIONS: AUSTRALIA’S PARTICIPATION IN THE G7 By Caitlin Byrne, ÚĜųåÏƋŅųØ :ųĜþƋĘ eŸĜ± Institute

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HOW VIRTUAL SUMMITRY THREATENS G7 SUCCESS By Tristen Naylor, fellow in international relations, London School of Economics

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

WELCOME

Boris Johnson Prime Minister, United Kingdom

Building back greener and better

ome commentators have acquired a habit of announcing that the West is locked in decline, the Atlantic alliance is fractured and everything we hold dear is now at risk. But without downplaying the challenges and dangers we face, in the teeth of a global pandemic, let me suggest that the pessimism has been overdone and the countries we call the “West” are drawing together once again and strengthening their friendships around the world – and that is what you will see at the G7 summit in Cornwall. The shared goals of the UK’s presidency of the G7 are to help the world to build back better and build back greener after the pandemic and minimise the risk of such a catastrophe happening again. We need to mobilise our expertise to create an early warning system for the next pathogen, enabled by a worldwide network of pandemic surveillance centres, and the United Kingdom intends work alongside the World Health Organization and our friends to bring this about. If anything good can possibly come from this tragedy, we have at least been given the chance to build a global recovery on new and green foundations. Britain will host COP26 in Glasgow in November and I’m delighted that America has rejoined the Paris Agreement. The UK’s aim will be to help to rally as many countries as possible behind the target of net zero by 2050. But we can only address global problems alongside our friends, and extend Britain’s

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

influence if the UK itself and our own citizens are safe. The starting point of our Integrated Review of foreign, defence and development policy is that the success of Global Britain depends on the security of our homeland and the stability of the Euro-Atlantic area. So I am strengthening our armed forces with the biggest increase in Britain’s defence budget since the Cold War, comfortably exceeding the NATO pledge to invest 2% of gross domestic product. The Royal Navy’s new aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, has embarked for the Indo-Pacific. But I hope the UK has shown by our actions that we will defend our values as well as our interests. We were the first European country to sanction senior figures in Belarus after the stolen election. We have now imposed sanctions on scores of human rights violators, including from Russia, China, Myanmar and Zimbabwe. We have consistently spoken out against China’s repression of the Uighur people in Xinjiang province. We have introduced new measures to ensure that the supply chains of UK companies are not tainted by the violations in Xinjiang. After China broke a treaty and imposed a repressive national security law on Hong Kong, the UK offered nearly 3 million of the territory’s people a route to British citizenship. We acted quickly and willingly – with cross-party support at home – to keep faith with the people of Hong Kong. globalgovernanceproject.org

If anything good can possibly come from this tragedy, we have at least been given the chance to build a global recovery on new and green foundations.” I believe that Europe increasingly recognises the necessity of joining our American friends to rediscover that far-sighted leadership and the spirit of adventure and trans-Atlantic unity that made our two continents great in the first place. A new world is rising up around us, patterns of trade and commerce are changing, the technological revolution proceeds with blistering speed. But none of us should fear or resent these changes. Free countries – many of them located far beyond the geographical “West” – possess a boundless and inherent ability to release the talents and enterprise of their people. Of the 10 most innovative nations in the world – as ranked by the Global Innovation Index in 2020 – all but one are liberal democracies. There is no reason why our countries should not be stronger and safer in 2030 – or indeed 2050 – than today, provided we share the burdens, compete successfully and seek out friends and partners wherever they can be found. Hence I have invited Korea, Australia, India and South Africa to attend this G7. So let’s build a coalition for openness and innovation, reaching beyond established alliances and the confines of geography, proud of our history, but free of any temptation to turn back the clock, and harnessing the genius of open societies to flourish in an era of renewed global competition. globalgovernanceproject.org

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

EY Kate Barton, EY Global Vice Chair – Tax

How tax policy can help build a more sustainable post-pandemic future The world faces a growing and ever-present danger accelerated by climate change. As organizations shift operating practices and individuals demand more sustainable working practices, Kate Barton, EY Global Vice Chair – Tax, shares why tax policy will be instrumental in building a more sustainable post-pandemic world. 8

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

t has never been more imperative for governments and businesses to work together to build a more sustainable working world. As the COVID-19 pandemic has shown, catastrophes that may seem isolated in one part of the world can spread across borders, disrupting supply chains and transforming lives. While 2020 saw carbon emissions drop, as economies look to return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels of mobility and consumption, the adverse impact on the environment will increase. And in turn so too will the prospect and intensity of climate-related disasters including bush fires, rising sea levels and ecological destruction. Much progress has been made in recent years, both at the government and private level, around transforming how organizations view sustainability and operate in order to mitigate their collective impact on the environment. Many organizations around the world, including EY, have made pledges to become carbon neutral – and indeed carbon negative. Meanwhile environmental, social and governance metrics have risen to the fore of C-suite decision-making, in part driven by consumers that demand more from organizations, and also by a growing public and government consciousness that there is no Planet-B. In the next few years, the global population is expected to hit 8 billion people, and many of the environmental challenges we face today will be compounded as finite resources and local ecosystems are further strained. CARROTS, NOT STICKS APPROACH While private organizations have played a leading role in transforming collective behavior, governments around the world have been instrumental in driving – and incentivizing – this change through both carrot and stick approaches. In a global economy, trade is the essence of growth and prosperity and, when governments work together to collectively incentivize sustainable private behavior, the impact we leave on the planet will be positive – and globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

EY long-term. Around the world, young people have already lived through two financial crises in the space of a decade and are now experiencing diminished job prospects and limited financial security owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. Without a commitment from both private sector organizations and governments, however small and incremental, to shift their operating practices, they will inherit a very different planet to their parents. TAX POLICY AS AN ENABLER Chief among the public sector initiatives to drive transformational and sustainable behavior has been tax policy. And in recent years, the frequency and prominence with which sustainability and green initiatives have become embedded into national tax codes around the world has grown significantly. The EY Green Tax Tracker shows that there are now more than 3,600 sustainability incentives and carbon pricing initiatives in 48 national and 34 subnational jurisdictions around the world. These initiatives cover 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions and raised US$45 billion in revenues in 2019. There are also myriad tax credits, deductions, grants, rebates, and low-interest loans allowing organizations to finance renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, among many others. In addition to this, the OECD now estimates that there are more than 5,600 environmental and energy taxes around the world. THE GLOBAL IMPERATIVE Around the world, governments have increasingly put sustainability at the forefront of their policy agendas. US President Joe Biden’s US $2 trillion infrastructure package included a significant number of rebates and tax incentives designed to encourage private investment in green energy and technology. In the EU, the European Green Deal (EGD) has sought to make the EU climate neutral by 2050, decoupling economic growth from the use of natural resources. Key EGD initiatives include supporting new business models based on circular product design, promoting bio-based plastics, and a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). globalgovernanceproject.org 1 https://www.ey.com/en_gl/tax/why-companies-should-pay-attention-to-climate-change-proposals

KATE BARTON Kate Barton is the EY global vice chair – tax, a role she has been in since July 2018. She oversees all aspects of EY tax strategy and operations, representing more than 55,000 tax professionals around the world. Additionally, she also leads the EY Tax Executive Committee, and is a member of the EY Global Executive and EY Global Diversity & Inclusiveness Committee. Kate joined EY as an intern in 1985.  @KateBartonEY  www.ey.com

SUSTAINABILITY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY Conversations around sustainability are only likely to intensify in the coming years, particularly as governments look to balance record deficits hit during the pandemic. For example, a US$25/ tonne carbon tax, adjusted for inflation, could raise more than US$1 trillion over a 10-year budget window. Meanwhile, more and more government budgets are being tied to sustainability. For instance, EU leaders in July 2020 agreed on Next Generation EU, an economic recovery plan to rebuild Member States at a cost of €750 billion, of which 30% will be dedicated to green and sustainable investments. The business imperative is clear. Organizations that don’t invest in sustainable work practices not only risk reputational harm, but also miss out on opportunities for government support for their green initiatives, and risk getting left behind in an increasingly competitive green economy. As the world awaits a return to pre-pandemic normality, and as organizations reimagine their operations for the “next normal,” it is imperative governments continue to leverage their national tax codes to drive sustainable practices. The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organisation or its member firms.

In Asia, several countries have also pledged to achieve carbon neutrality or net zero emissions, including Japan and South Korea by 2050 and China by 2060, with many more sustainability focused tax concessions in the region. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS LEADERS’ VIEWS

Angela Merkel Chancellor, Germany

Cooperating for the common good The leading industrialised countries bear a particular responsibility for overcoming global challenges, and the regular G7 summits reflect this responsibility. It goes without saying that it is not possible to find a solution to each and every problem at these meetings. However, when the G7 members cooperate closely with one another, they can achieve a great deal in the interests of the global common good. It is therefore with good reason that all eyes are turning to the United Kingdom this year as the G7 host. Permit me to thank Prime Minister Boris Johnson for organising this meeting, for which the agenda is ambitious. This is true first and foremost of the enormous challenge that the COVID-19 pandemic is posing for the international community. We must take resolute action together to contain the virus and its devastating impacts. We must also already think of the time after the pandemic. The objective is to make our societies and economies more resilient and fitter for the future, as well as more sustainable, more open and more just. The more tangible the initiatives that we adopt at the G7 summit to this end, the better. The pandemic remindss us once again, in particularly painful ways, of how important multilateral cooperation is. We are witnessing a great at deal of opment momentum in the development of the global balance of power, especially in these timess of dst of a crisis. We are in the midst ystems competition between systems bers in which we as G7 members must prove the resilience ce and proper functioning of our liberal and democratic orders, by confidently standing up for s, which are our values and interests, rooted in the indivisiblee dignity of all human beings. 10

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Enabling all people to lead as healthy a life as possible is also part of this. This is why we placed the issue of global health and pandemic preparedness on the agenda during Germany’s presidencies of the G7 and G20 in 2015 and 2017 respectively, the results of which now stand us in good stead. Things that still seemed abstract just a few years ago have become vitally important to our everyday lives as a result of the pandemic. To overcome the COVID-19 crisis, it is important to give all people around the world access to vaccines, medicines and tests. The Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator with its vaccine pillar COVAX, to which Germany is providing support both politically and financially as one of the biggest donors, is key to achieving this objective. The demand for vaccines is immense, however. Resources for increasing global production capacities and ensuring their fair supply around the world are still lacking. This alone is a mammoth task, and yet we would be found wanting were we to limit our focus to acute crisis management. We should also prepare well for future crises. This includes not least strengthening the World Health Organization as key for promoting global health. A TIME FOR CHANGE Thinking of tomorrow already today applies not only to healthcare. Our path out of the pandemic should lead us to as sustainable a future as possible, above all by strengthening our capacity for innovation. The measures to support

our economy must be geared towards this in particular – with respect to artificial intelligence and microelectronics, emobility, hydrogen or other technological fields of the future. We should harness the digital transformation and decarbonisation as driving forces for the economic upturn. It is important to keep our markets open or open them further, as well as develop new regulations and standards for international trade to achieve greater sustainability. In view of diverse economic ties, it is essential to work together still more closely as G7 members. The more coordinated our measures for economic recovery are, the more effective they will be. Important conferences will be held on international climate and environment policy this year. A strong signal from the G7 on climate protection and biodiversity are therefore particularly significant. A decisive factor for progress that we urgently need, above all with a view to the young and future generations, is, in my view, making climate neutrality a successful economic model. The G7 has set itself the objective of achieving greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050. Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the pressure to act has also increased further in other areas of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including efforts to eradicate poverty and promote food security, overcome social inequality and strengthen healthcare systems. On all these issues, progress can only be made as a joint project, with wealthy industrialised countries setting the pace. Our Partnership for Africa is a central element of the G7’s global responsibility. Africa has been hit particularly hard by the pandemic. We need a comprehensive package of measures including financial support, reform promotion and greater private investment. The Compact with Africa launched during Germany’s G20 presidency in 2017 has proven to be a suitable tool. Effective reforms have demonstrably led to greater resilience of the economies of the Compact partner countries compared with other countries. The G7 is an informal body that neither adopts laws nor issues regulations. Nonetheless, it can prove to be a trailblazer in finding responses to the major challenges of our times. “Build back better” – we want and we must breathe life into the motto of the UK presidency to ensure that the G7 does justice to its global leadership role as a community of democratic states with shared values. Germany is willing to do its part. globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Justin Trudeau Prime Minister, Canada

Responding to global crisis

n times of uncertainty, the G7 has proven what we can accomplish when we come together to address the world’s great challenges. Over the past year, all our countries and our people have faced an unprecedented threat to the health of our citizens and our economies – a global fight that continues. But in the face of challenge and hardship, we’ve come a long way by remaining firm in our commitment to do whatever it takes, for as long as it takes, to keep our people safe, healthy and supported. As vaccines continue to roll out around the world and we work to finish the fight against COVID-19, both at home and globally, Canada and our partners will continue to put people first and build a recovery where no one is left behind. At home, Canada has been working to address both the health and economic impacts that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on our people, businesses and communities. Since the start of the crisis, we’ve provided the necessary support that has helped families put food on the table and businesses keep their doors open. We’ve also been unwavering in our pursuit to keep Canadians safe and healthy during this crisis. Now, as more and more Canadians receive their COVID-19 vaccine, we’re continuing to make investments that address the specific wounds of the COVID-19 recession, create jobs, grow the middle class, set businesses on a track for long-term growth and ensure that Canada’s future will be healthier, more equitable, greener and more prosperous. Canada also understands that to beat COVID-19 at home, we must beat it everywhere. That’s why we have been working alongside our G7 partners to ensure a coordinated approach to bring this pandemic to an end and put the international community on the path to recovery. To date, Canada has been one of the leading contributors to the global COVID-19 response, pledging more than $2.5 billion in international assistance since the start of the crisis. That includes significant funding for the ACT-Accelerator and COVAX, which are critical international partnerships to ensure equitable access to COVID-19 tests, treatments and vaccines. Canada has also stepped up to rally other countries to work together to secure global supply chains, and we will continue to work with partners as we get closer to recovering from globalgovernanceproject.org

this crisis. We recognise, as we begin to rebuild, that Canada, like its G7 partners, is fortunate to have resources to invest in our health system and the economic rebound to come. However, some countries are not as well equipped. We need to be there for developing countries in this challenging time and take on global challenges, such as extreme poverty and inequalities, together. The G7 has an important role to play in ensuring that we do not allow the pandemic to permanently set back the recent progress of developing economies, and can help create jobs, opportunities and growth for everyone. We must also continue to carefully consider and address the disproportionate impacts that the virus has had on women, youth, and marginalised and racialised groups, both in our current response and as we rebuild for the future. Canada is working through the G7 and the G20, as well as the United Nations and other international organisations to ensure that the legacy of this crisis isn’t one of rolling back progress for anyone. That means tackling the She-cession that has developed from the virus, working to close the gender gap, and continuing to address systemic racism and barriers, both at home and around the world. Building back better must also include a continued commitment from G7 countries to strengthen democratic institutions around the world. We must all play a role in ensuring respect for human rights and the rule of law, in order to prevent persecution and mistreatment of all our people. While we set our sights on finishing the fight against this virus and fully recovering from its impacts, we must do so in a way that also addresses the other global challenges we face. We cannot have a plan for the future of the economy without having a plan for the environment and for fighting climate change. We need to meet this unprecedented challenge with unprecedented commitments – just as we have for the pandemic. This includes committing to net zero by 2050, reducing Canada’s pollution levels, and financing the transition to cleaner economies that will create jobs and grow the middle class. The G7 partners are well aligned on this, and together we have an opportunity to advance meaningful climate action at the G7 and G20, leading to COP26 in November. The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has affected our citizens, tested our healthcare systems and challenged our economies. It has also shown how interconnected we are and shown that no country can address these challenges alone. Only together can we finish the fight against this global crisis and rebuild in a way that creates jobs, growth and opportunity for everyone. The G7 is working together to find real solutions to the challenges of today and tomorrow, so we can build a brighter, more prosperous shared future. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

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XYXYYXYXYYXYYXYYX YXYYXYXYYXYYXYYXYYXYYXY LEADERS’ VIEWS

Charles Michel President, European Council

Forging a new narrative for multilateralism

n recent years, multilateralism has become something of a punching bag. Amidst today’s great power competition, the very notion of a cooperative global approach to solving problems has been called into question, as though it were the relic of a bygone era or a romantic anachronism that has run its course. Nothing could be further from the truth. When G7 leaders met virtually in February, we vowed to make 2021 a turning point for multilateralism. And I believe it will be. The European Union has never lost faith in the power of working together with other like-minded partners to solve problems. In recent years, Europe has positioned itself as a leader of vibrant and engaged multilateralism. The EU has brought global leadership to the fight against climate change. It is manifested in our commitment taken in 2019 to become the world’s first climate neutral continent by 2050. And we recently stepped up our ambition, by agreeing to cut our carbon emissions by at least 55% by 2030. The global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic is another prime p e example e a peo of leadership. The EU our spirit of leadership. ce for has been a driving forc force nal cooperati ion and international cooperation h for solidarity in the search vaccinees treatmentss and vaccines against thee virus. And y were found, we when they em. The EU iss the shared them. porter of vacc cines biggest exporter vaccines rted half of our o – we exported n by mid-May. mid-May y. We production o which helped set up COVAX to we are a major contributor. contribu utor. We o address appeal to all partners tto ng gaps, as we ell as any the funding well other bottlenecks, lenecks, in pa particular articular o to ensure the security of ains for vaccines vacciines supply chains and of their ir component components. ts. globalgovernanceproject.org

RENEWED ACTION This must be the year we fill the sails of multilateralism with a gust of fresh energy and a renewed sense of purpose. The G7, under the UK presidency, and the G20, under the Italian presidency, offer an opportunity to make great strides forward – from global health, climate change and biodiversity to championing free and fair trade and reinforcing our shared democratic values. And America’s promise to re-commit to the multilateral system marks a new beginning – we must capitalise on this momentum. The G7 must once again stand as a powerful engine for positive and robust multilateral action – universal and far-reaching in ambition. The Cornwall Summit can be a catalyst for greater collective action on several fronts: defeating COVID-19, reaching climate neutrality, and building back more resilient economies and fairer societies. The global roll-out of vaccines will define our success against the coronavirus pandemic. We must also prepare for future health crises. An international treaty on pandemics, pa p de cs, under u de the t e framework a ewo of o the t e World Health Organization, would help prevent future pandemics, and make sure we are better prepared and can take immediate action. Climate change does not slow down during a pandemic. We must protect the health of our planet with the same fervour that we are protecting the health of our citizens. The EU’s leadership on climate n neu trality neutrality

by 2050 has set down an ambitious marker, generating fresh momentum for stronger international action. But we need everyone on board. The G7 can spur greater urgency in the run-up to COP26. The transition to net-zero economies poses particular challenges for developing countries. We must stand by our commitment to support these partners. The EU and its members remain the largest contributor of public climate finance to developing countries. We urge all developed countries to scale up their contributions. This will help reduce environmental inequality, preserve biodiversity and lead to a just ecological transition. Today we are seeing the economic recovery gaining momentum. This is a unique moment in history to reimagine our future. G7 members hold a special responsibility to ensure that the mantra “build back better” means better for all, not just a select few. We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to modernise our societies – to make them greener, more digital, more inclusive. At the same time, we must recognise that many low-income countries do not have the means to stem the economic fallout from the pandemic on their own. This is especially the case in Africa. The G7 should lead the global efforts to both provide further immediate financial support and help stimulate increased private investment in the region. The European Union believes that open and rules-based trade can help power the necessary transformation, restore growth and create jobs. We continue to prioritise reform of the World Trade Organization, as it remains the best venue through which to resolve global trade issues. Europe has been leading the ongoing global efforts to ensure a fairer taxation of business. The recent change in the stance of the US administration on this issue is encouraging. We will continue to work for a global and consensus-based solution in the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the G20. There is no time to lose. Our collective duty is now to show that multilateral cooperation is of direct benefit to the well-being of our citizens. This will depend on us – nations that share the values of freedom, democracy and the rule of law – to reframe our multilateral narrative and get to work on addressing the new challenges of the 21st century. Let’s make 2021 the great reawakening of our collective global spirit. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

CVC India Infrastructure

Going green makes economic sense

limate action has more momentum and widespread community support today than ever before. This augurs well for realising the Sustainable Development Goals, paving the way for a green economy. Several major economies have announced credible net zero timelines. Nations are debating and legislating climate laws. The Climate Action 100+ initiative is gaining new corporate members with each passing day. Corporates are also adopting ESG reporting with enthusiasm. Central bankers and finance ministers are starting to recognise that a green economy is not just about renewable energy, sustainable mobility, clean air and water, circularity and resource efficiency, and biosphere protection. The green economy will create a variety of local jobs. And because the green economy can be scaled up rapidly with the right kind of policy and monetary support, it is also an extremely capital-efficient pathway to inclusion.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Meeting net zero and the Sustainable Development Goals require drastic changes, but these shifts can prove beneficial to the economy too Kolluru Krishan, founder chairman, CVC Infrastructure India Clean energy transition is an imperative. Emerging economies host the majority of the world’s population and the largest base of global manufacturing. Their GDP growth is predicted to be significantly higher than that of the global average, which will lead to significant increases in energy demand and, under a business-as-usual scenario, corresponding Hamad Buamimrises in greenhouse gas emissions and environment pollution. Then

there is the issue of energy access. Hundreds of millions of people across the globe suffer from energy deprivation – both a component and cause of economic poverty. Helping both emerging and developing economies on to a cleaner and greener development path serves the interests of the world at large. However, this requires access to finance, not just in quantum but as “patient capital”, which encourages and nurtures innovation in green businesses. Decarbonising electricity and widening its applications have been and will remain a priority. Solar and wind power, along with energy storage, continues on a downward cost trajectory, while there is exponential growth in e-mobility. Although innovation will continue, these sectors have reached critical mass, allowing growth to be funnelled by market dynamics as well as cost reductions driven by economies of scale. Other sustainable energy solutions, such as biofuels, green hydrogen and solar thermal, are needed for sectors that face globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

CVC India Infrastructure challenges in decarbonisation through renewable electricity – for instance long-haul trucking, aviation and marine transport, farm equipment and rural mobility, building cooling and heating systems, and industrial process heating. Hence, there is a need to adopt a holistic approach in supporting low carbon and environmentally friendly technologies, which can effectively displace fossil fuels as well as enhancing clean energy access. These technologies, implemented under a decentralised architecture of energy production and supply, would also contribute to the sustainable development of rural communities, meeting “lifeline” as well as “lifestyle” needs, while fostering local entrepreneurship and creating well paying jobs beyond agriculture. Key focus areas are outlined below. ∙DDD (decentralised, decarbonised, digitised) energy solutions for urban and rural areas: DDD solutions can play a vital role in enhancing clean energy access and inclusive economic growth within transitioning economies. A large rural population, dispersed over small towns and villages, with low energy demand, is characteristic of many emerging and developing economies. Micro-grids for renewable electricity and a range of biofuels are an optimal way to meet the needs and aspirations of populations in such places. Such micro-grids would be based on digitally optimised renewable energy power plants linked to energy storage, and biogas and advanced biofuels plants based on food and farm waste streams. This therefore enables rural communities access to renewable electricity, sustainable mobility and clean cooking fuel, to spur cleanenergy-based economic activities. This approach will eliminate the need for large land banks, reduce the need for widespread transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure, avoid associated T&D losses, and significantly reduce grid-balancing challenges. ∙Sustainable mobility: According to the International Energy Agency, the transport sector contributes 24% of total greenhouse gas emissions, with 75% contributed by road transport. By 2050, global transport sector activity is anticipated to double from 2014. In a BAU scenario, tailpipe emissions of fossil fuel vehicles would skyrocket to dangerously unsustainable levels – placing a large question mark on Paris Agreement globalgovernanceproject.org

CVC VISION – TO INSTITUTIONALISE THE GREEN ECONOMY

Green energy Gre

Green buildings

Circular economy – waste & water

Ęå čųååĹ åÏŅĹŅĵƼ ĜŸ ĬŅƵ Ï±ųÆŅĹØ ųåŸŅƚųÏå åþÏĜåĹƋ ±ĹÚ ŸŅÏĜ±ĬĬƼ ĜĹÏĬƚŸĜƴå The green economy propels growth in employment and income, through economic activities MRJVEWXVYGXYVI XLEX M QMXMKEXI GEVFSR IQMWWMSRW ERH TSPPYXMSR MM IRLERGI IǽGMIRGMIW MR energy & resources utilisation, and (iii) preserve biodiversity and natural ecosystems

commitments as well as the UN’s SDGs. Hence, a transformative shift towards decarbonisation of the transport sector is an imperative. Major enablers of this shift would include electric mobility backed by renewable energy powered charging infrastructure, and advanced biofuels backed by sustainable and remunerative farming, with low carbon and green hydrogen gaining prominence in the foreseeable future.

emerging economies may continue to need fossil fuels for a cost-effective energy supply to their industries as well as overall energy security. In such a scenario, CCUS will become crucially important if net zero is to be met. Apart from large-scale applications, for example enhanced oil recovery, there will also be opportunities for decentralised utilisation of CO2, including aqueous CO2 for horticulture, and dry-ice-based cold storage and cold-chain solutions.

∙CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation and storage): According to the International Energy Agency, industry constitutes 24% of total GHG emissions, with two-thirds contributed by the iron and steel, cement, and chemical and petrochemical sectors, which are practical targets for implementing carbon capture and utilisation. Furthermore, even with significant scale-up in renewable energy,

CVC India Infrastructure Pvt Ltd (CVC-IIP): CVC-IIP’s mission is to provide high-end advisory services as well as undertake project development activities in the energy and infrastructure sectors. We focus on advanced eco-sustainable technologies that will usher in the future of energy and mobility, with special emphasis on farm waste to sustainable energy projects. Our unique value addition, which gives us competitive advantages, is the ability to integrate these projects as part of a farm-based bio-economy programme, dovetailed within a green economy framework. Our developed portfolio (under the project SPV CVC Biorefineries Pvt Ltd) includes farm-waste based biomethane/ bio-CNG projects in the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. The portfolio under development includes bio-oil, bio-plastics and bio-hydrogen.

KOLLURU KRISHAN Kolluru Krishan is the India chair of the Energy & Green Economy Working Group of the BRICS Business Council and chair of the FICCI Committee on Climate Change. He was the founder chairman of the Green Jobs Skills Council (2015 to 2021), founded CVC India Infrastructure and has extensive top management experience in the energy sector.

The organisation’s overview may be found at our website: http://www.cvc-iip.com.

: www.cvc-iip.com

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Mario Draghi Prime Minister, Italy

Envisioning the post-pandemic reality

ealth policy is only one of the challenges facing rich and emerging countries today. We must also address significant economic risks. International financial institutions must provide the necessary support to low-income countries to ensure that this health crisis does not turn into a wave of sovereign debt crises. In particular, we must now put the International Monetary Fund in the position to provide an effective shield for the world’s poorest countries. The Rome Declaration rightly emphasises the importance of pursuing a One Health approach – and here I’m coming to climate – to preserve human, animal and environmental safety. This is the key priority of Italy’s G20 Presidency. The Scientific Expert Panel has stated how most infectious diseases are caused by pathogens that are derived from animals. Their emergence is largely driven by deforestation, wildlife exploitation, and other human activities. Effective environmental action can help to defend animal welfare and ultimately mitigate the risk of new health threats. When pursuing a common strategy to prevent future pandemics, we must uphold our commitment to limit environmental damage and tackle the climate crisis. … Closing Remarks, Global Health Summit, 21 May 2021

When we come out of the pandemic, and we shall come out, what kind of world will we live in? Some people think that the disaster we have been going through for more than 12 months now can be compared to a long power failure. Sooner or later the power comes back on, and everything starts as before. However, science, and even common sense 16

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suggest that this may not be the case. Global warming has direct effects on our life and health, think of pollution, hydrogeological instability, rising sea levels that could make some large areas of coastal cities no longer inhabitable. Megacities have stolen space [from] nature and this may have been among the causes of the coronavirus transmission from animals to humans. … Getting out of the pandemic will not be like turning the lights back on. This consideration, which scientists keep on repeating, has an important consequence. The government must protect workers, all workers, but it would be a mistake to indiscriminately protect all economic activities. Some will have to change, even radically. And the challenge for our economic policy in the coming months is that of understanding which activities are to be protected and which are to be supported

in changing. … Climate change, like the pandemic, penalises some productive sectors without any growth shift towards other sectors to compensate. We must therefore make this shift happen, and we must do it now. The economic policy response to climate change and the pandemic will have to be threefold: firstly, structural policies fostering innovation, secondly financial policies making access to capital and credit easier for companies with scale up potential, and third, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies that promote investment and demand for newly established sustainable activities. … Mobilising the country’s best energies for recovery cannot do without the involvement of women. … True gender equality does not mean hypocritical compliance with the so-called “pink quotas” required by law: it implies ensuring equal competitive conditions between genders. We intend to work in this direction, aiming at rebalancing the wage gap and modernizing our welfare system, so as women can devote the same energies to their career as their male colleagues, thereby overcoming the choice between family or work. Ensuring a level playing field also means making sure that everyone can have an equal access to the digital, technological and environmental skills that are key for advancing in a career. … From December 2020 and until the end of 2021, Italy has held the G20 Presidency for the first time. The agenda involves the government as a whole and revolves around three pillars: People, Planet, Prosperity. Italy is responsible for leading the Group out of the pandemic and relaunching green and sustainable growth for the benefit of all. It will be about rebuilding and rebuilding better. Together with the United Kingdom – sharing the parallel Presidencies of the G7 and G20 – we will focus on sustainability and the green transition in view of the next Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (Cop 26), with a special focus on younger generations’ active involvement through the “Youth4Climate” event. … Address to the Senate of the Republic, 17 February 2021 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Joe Biden President, United States

Leading with our allies

’ve often said: Our greatest strength is the power of our example, not just the example of our power. In my conversations with world leaders … I’ve made it known that America is back. And you know what they say? … “We see America is back but for how long?” … [W]e have to show not just that we’re back, but that we’re back to stay and that we aren’t going to go it alone. We’re going to do it by leading with our allies. No one nation can deal with all the crises of our time — from terrorism, to nuclear proliferation, mass migration, cybersecurity, climate change, as well as … what we’re experiencing now with pandemics. … [T]errorism has metastasized. The threat has evolved way beyond Afghanistan. … We have to remain vigilant against the threats to the United States wherever they come from. Al Qaeda and ISIS are in Yemen, Syria, Somalia, other places in Africa, the Middle East, and beyond. And we won’t ignore what our intelligence agencies have determined to be the most lethal terrorist threat to the homeland today: White supremacy is terrorism. … Can our democracy deliver on its promise that all of us, created equal in the image of God, have a chance to lead lives of dignity, respect, and possibility? Can our democracy deliver … to the most pressing needs of our people? Can our democracy overcome the lies, anger, hate, and fears that have pulled us apart? America’s adversaries – the autocrats of the world – are betting we can’t. … But we have to prove them wrong. … Folks, as I told every world leader I’ve ever met with over the years, it’s never ever, ever been a good bet to bet against

globalgovernanceproject.org

America, and it still isn’t. … A ddress to the joint session of Congress, 29 April 2021

You know, the world beyond 1.5 degrees means more frequent and intense fires, floods, droughts, heat waves, and hurricanes tearing through communities, ripping away lives and livelihoods, increasingly dire impacts to our public health. … [E]ach country can set higher climate ambitions that will in turn create good-paying jobs, advance innovative technologies, and help vulnerable countries adapt to climate impacts. … If we do, we’ll breathe easier, literally and figuratively … This is a moral imperative, an economic imperative, a moment of peril but also a moment of extraordinary possibilities. Opening remarks, Leaders Climate on Summit, 22 April 2021

[A]ll of our nations must stand together in shifting policies and on public investment as well, you know, to invest in breakthrough technologies; to finally end fossil fuel subsidies; to help the world’s most vulnerable nations and those bearing the least responsibility for the climate crisis cope with the devastating impacts of the climate crisis; you know, to help developing economies leapfrog to the clean technologies of tomorrow; to mobilize the trillions of dollars needed to make the most of the opportunity to build a clean-energy, job-rich path to meet our goals; to make sure that our climate response is about more than just building and developing new sectors, but also about international security, regional stability, food security, and gender and racial equity as well. …

single best way to revitalize the promise of our future. And if we work together with our democratic partners, with strength and confidence, I know that we’ll meet every challenge and outpace every challenger. … We must shape the rules that will govern the advance of technology and the norms of behavior in cyberspace, artificial intelligence, biotechnology so that they are used to lift people up, not used to pin them down. … Yet, even as we fight to get out of the teeth of this pandemic, the resurgence of Ebola in Africa is a stark reminder that we must simultaneously work to finally finance health security; strengthen global health systems; and create early warning systems to prevent, detect, and respond to future biological threats, because they will keep coming. We have to work together to strengthen and reform the World Health Organization. We need a U.N. system focused on biological threats that can move quickly to trigger action. … So let me conclude with this: We cannot allow self-doubt to hinder our ability to engage each other or the larger world. … Munich Security Conference, 19 February 2021

Leaders Climate on Summit, 22 April 2021

I participated in the first meeting of the G7 leaders, where I spoke about the dire need to coordinate multilateral action to address COVID-19, the global economic crisis, and the accelerating climate crisis, and so much else. … Democracy doesn’t happen by accident. We have to defend it, fight for it, strengthen it, renew it. We have to prove that our model isn’t a relic of our history; it’s the 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Emmanuel Macron President, France

A call to action

he time has come to share. … We cannot allow health systems to collapse. We cannot allow the virus to run out of control across entire regions. The appearance of new variants demonstrates this. Our health also depends upon the poorest countries. Giving everyone access to products to combat COVID-19, it was on 24 April 2020 [that] the ACT-A Accelerator was launched. One year later, we can be proud collectively of what we have accomplished even though there is still a lot to do. … But now we must st continue our efforts, go faster, stronger, because it’s a race against time in this pandemic. emic. … Our most vulnerable rable populations are gradually being protected and we will continue to receive ve more and more vaccines. We generally have ve the means to accelerate our solidarity by donating vaccines. … Then, there are many other things that we need to do, as we know. Ensuring transparency in procurement contracts, in inst commercial practices order to fight against that are unfair to more vulnerable countries. To guarantee thatt we will mobilise all uce the vaccine … capacity to produce

Message on the first rst anniversary of the launch of the ACT-Accelerator,, 24 April 2021

We need to move more quickly to implement commitments for 2030. A plan of action that is clear, measurable surable and verifiable. Basically, 2030 is the new 2050. … mpletely [W]e need to completely transform our financial ancial system. … The One Planett initiative has brought together sovereign funds, asset managers agers and private equity … These ow initiatives have now become models for or the 18

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future and are changing global finance. … Taking action for the climate means regulating, and regulating at [the] international level. If we don’t set a price for carbon, there will be no transition. Therefore, we need to factor the environment in the cost of investment, in our regional investment, in our regional markets, and in our trade relations. Lastly, if we wish to beat the climate challenge – and I will conclude with this point – we need to move more quickly to protect biodiversity. Leaders Summit on Climate, 22 April 2021

[A]t the G-20 level, and largely led at that time by the European leaders but in a co-construction and a common work with the African leaders, we launched … this ACT-A Initiative … We conceived an approach where dealing with [the] COVID-19 crisis was helping the African countries in order to preserve their primary health system, to treat people, and to deal with the economic and social consequences of the pandemic. … [O]ur ACT-A initiative … is … the new type of partnership where we can deliver much more rapidly collectively, because we put ourselves in a situation to provide vaccine to poor and emerging countries.

… If we put all together our financing and our commitments, we can provide to these countries a number of doses … And … you have to work directly with the government and to help them to strengthen their primary health system. If you don’t have structures, doctors, nurses and so on, it’s impossible to have a vaccination campaign. … [W]e can cooperate as well much more in this global platform for artificial intelligence we created in the G-7 a few semesters ago … – and I hope the U.S. will join and participate – but we created [it] largely with Canada, where we can work together to avoid any dependency on technical decision[s] but where we want to build common democratic governance … [Post–COVID-19 on trade] the critical point is, obviously, to preserve and increase market access, the ability to provide opportunities, and the ability to have an efficient organization of our trade and our industries. We have to take into consideration climate change, … and how to reduce our carbon footprint. Which means, how to rethink our logistics, how to be closer in terms of production to the final market … And any new trade agenda should take into consideration the question q of inequalities in our societies. … And where we have to reconcile economic, econom climate and inequality issue[s]. … I do en endorse not to have any regional trade agreement agre with a country or region which doesn’t doe comply with the Paris agreement. … Interview given to the Atlantic Council, 4 February 2021

“France Relance”, which is o our recovery plan, … [has] 3 key objective objectives: speeding up the greening of the economy, economy increasing French competitiveness, and developing skills to reduce unemployment. unemployme [D]igital transformation is also part of the plan. Our fourth investm investment program for the future will mobilize €20bn € as part of the stimulus plan between betw now and 2022, in order to accelerate our transit transition. So, … education, health, green, education digital are the four pillars to build tthe France of 2030 … Exchange with France’s top Excha CEOs, 25 2 January 2021 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Yoshihide Suga Prime Minister, Japan

A virtuous cycle

xtreme weather events, such as torrential rains, forest fires and heavy snowfalls, are witnessed worldwide in recent years, and climate change is said to be a major cause of such events. Addressing climate change and advancing decarbonization is hence an imminent challenge which the whole of humankind should aim to solve. At the same time, our effort to address climate change is no longer a constraint on our economy. Rather, it will be the driving force of the long-term dynamic growth of, not only Japan’s economy, but also the global economy. With this vision in mind, in the fall of last year, immediately after assuming the office of Prime Minister, I declared that Japan will aim for net-zero by 2050. Japan will take a big step toward overcoming this global issue. Japan aims to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 46 percent in fiscal year 2030 from its fiscal year 2013 levels, setting an ambitious target which is aligned with the long-term goal of achieving net-zero by 2050. Furthermore, Japan will continue strenuous efforts in its challenge to meet the lofty goal of cutting its emission by 50 percent. … In order to create a virtuous cycle of the economy and the environment and to realize robust growth toward our ambitious goal for 2030, the Government of Japan will work to maximize utilization of decarbonized power sources, such as renewable energy, and take incentive measures sufficient for inducing investment by companies. … Japan will also work for the realization of innovation that will enhance production and secure sustainability in food, agriculture and forestry sectors. Furthermore, Japan will advance the transition to a circular economy, thereby creating new industries and employment. … Global decarbonization cannot be achieved through the efforts of one country alone; it is a challenge that requires the whole international community to act [as] one. We can create a surge of climate change measures globally, with ambitious targets presented, and implemented, by countries attending the Summit today which are responsible for around 80 percent of global emissions, thereby engaging with the whole world. … No other time than now does international society need further solidarity for the realization of a decarbonized society. Japan, as a nation that puts utmost importance on multilateral approaches, is determined to take the lead in solving the challenge of climate change for the whole of humankind, by cooperating with each country and international organizations, looking ahead to COP 26 and beyond. …

The “three arrows” of Abenomics restored the Japanese economy for the first time since the bubble economy period. Even in the post-COVID-19 era, our economy will still face many barriers in order to grow again and lead the world. We will tear down bureaucratic sectionalism, vested interests, and the practice of blindly following precedents, thus paving the way to the future. My Cabinet will provide solutions even to difficult challenges. … To begin with, we will create the next driving forces of growth. These will be “green” and “digital.” … Japan places importance on multilateralism and aims to realize a “united world” that collectively tackles challenges facing the international community. We are determined to demonstrate leadership in creating a post-COVID-19 international order. … We will accelerate rulemaking for “Data Free Flow with Trust” in the digital age and promote the reform of the World Trade Organization. The progress of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the entry into force of the Japan-UK Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement have contributed to the establishment of a free and fair economic order. As this year’s chair of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Commission, Japan will lead the discussions for the steady implementation and expansion of the TPP. … Establishing a free and open order based on the rule of law is extremely important in the Indo-Pacific region, which is the hub of the dynamism of the world. While deepening cooperation ooperation with the United States, ASEAN, Australia, India, and Europe, we will work together with more countries and regions egions to achieve a “Free Free and Open Indo-Pacific.” ndo-Pacific.” Policy Speech o the Diet, to 18 8 January 2021 021

Leaders Summit on Climate, 22 April 2021 globalgovernanceproject.org

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Ursula von der Leyen President, European Commission

A path out of crisis

believe that this [Global Health] Summit will go down in history as a milestone in the fight against pandemics. Our multilateral cooperation is the golden thread running through the [Rome] Declaration. We have agreed to work together to prevent harmful bottlenecks in supplies. We have agreed to use all of the flexibilities provided by the intellectual property system. We have agreed to promote equity and access to vaccines, diagnostics and other medical supplies. … I would … like to ask the upcoming G7 Summit to put health preparedness on their agenda – we heard today the Chair, the Presidency – so this is very probable. And I am pleased that we are holding ourselves to account by discussing when we meet again in Rome in October … Closing remarks, Global Health Summit, 21 May 2021

A bit more than a year ago, Europe has said, indeed, that it wants to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. And last December, EU Leaders agreed to a greenhouse gas emission reduction target of at least 55% by 2030. The first ever European Climate Law will hopefully soon come into force. … And this is something that the business community has asked us to do for many years: Clear, transparent and firm targets. So that companies have the certainty that they need to plan ahead for the future, to turn their investments into green investments. Because in our fight against climate change, business is our close and indispensable partner. Our European Green Deal is our strategy for sustainable growth. Now it is also our roadmap out of the crisis. … [W]e want to start a European Renovation Wave. The main objective is to make our buildings more energy efficient. Buildings notably account today for 40% of our emissions. … [W]e will invest in clean hydrogen as never before. … Clean hydrogen can power heavy industries, 20

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propel our cars, or trucks and planes, store seasonal energy and heat up our homes. And all of this with almost zero emissions. For the steel industry, hydrogen is the opportunity on their way to more sustainability. ... And by 2050, we want renewable hydrogen technologies to be deployed at large scale to reach all hard-to-decarbonise sectors in our economy. ... [T]o achieve our 2030 goal, we need to boost green investment. We know that we will have to invest around EUR 350 billion more per year in the energy system in the coming decade to make it sustainable. Our European Union green bond standard, for example, and the EU taxonomy will lead the way. . .. And finally, we also need a Paris-style agreement for biodiversity. [W]hen we lose forests, we do not ‘just’ lose green space or natural habitat. We lose a key ally in our fight against climate change. And this is why the European Union will soon present a legal framework for the restoration of healthy ecosystems. It is why we will protect at least 30% of land and sea in the European Union. And we are ready to broker the same ambition at global level, at the next UN Biodiversity Summit in Kunming. Because this will have to be like COP21 was for climate!… Keynote speech at the Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue, 16 March 2021

The storming [of] the U.S. Capitol was a turning point for our discussion on the impact social media have on our democracies. This is what happens when words incite action. In a world where polarising opinions are the most likely to be heard, it is only a short step from crude conspiracy theories to the death of police officers. In December, the Commission launched the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act – our new framework for the digital market. Of course, imposing democratic limits on the uncontrolled power of the big tech companies alone will not stop political violence. But it is an important step. At its most basic, we want to make sure that what is illegal offline is also illegal online. And we want clear requirements that internet firms take responsibility for the content they distribute, promote and remove. … Speech at the Munich Security Conference, 19 February 2021 globalgovernanceproject.org

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

Scott Morrison Prime Minister, Australia

Collaboration in the face of adversity

he COVID-19 pandemic has claimed lives and livelihoods around the world. It has kept us apart from our families, friends and loved ones, and made the smallest geographical distances seem like vast chasms. But while Australians have been affected deeply by this physical distance, the diplomatic ties we share with our friends around the globe have rarely felt so close. The level of international cooperation over the past year has proven what Australia and our close allies have always known to be true: when working together, like-minded liberal democracies can be a powerful force for good. Australia is honoured to be a guest at the 2021 G7 Cornwall Summit, alongside India, Korea and South Africa. Our nation has much to contribute to this important gathering. Our quick and decisive action to address the consequences of COVID-19 has seen Australia achieve some of the best health and economic outcomes in the world. All Australians have contributed to this success. But Australians are also aware that this is a global challenge, requiring a global solution. COVID-19 respects no borders. Equitable distribution of vaccines globally is a critical concern for the UK G7 presidency, as it is for Australia. tralia. Australia hass led by providing emergency vaccines ccines to our nearest neighbours, including ncluding Papua New Guinea. We aree working with our Quadrilateral partners – India, Japan and the United States – to manufacture re and distribute ore doses across the one billion more Indo-Pacific by y 2022. We are also increasing our paredness, pandemic preparedness, and ensuring our collective defences against

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future pandemics are strengthened by a global health system that is well governed, responsive and highly resourced in combating future health crises. And, of course, we are looking for safe ways to open up international borders to greater trade and travel, so that we can re-establish our human connections. Australia and the G7 share a great deal of common ground on these issues. It is a privilege to reaffirm our shared values as open democratic societies and identify opportunities to strengthen our cooperation across many other areas of shared interest. Together we can respond to economic coercion and foreign interference, as well as prevent the misuse of technology by ensuring technological developments reflect liberal democratic values and norms. On security, Australia will continue working with partners in the G7 and more broadly to ensure our collective strategic interests are protected against those that seek to do us harm. This includes maintaining an open, inclusive and prosperous Indo-Pacific, underpinned by the rule of law and respect for sovereignty. On gender equality and women’s empowerment, Australia could not be more steadfast in our commitment to real progress, including addressing the disproportionate effects of the disproportiona pandemic on women. Australia lled the way at the G20 Brisbane Bris Summit in securing a commitment to reduce the gap between women’s and men’s workforce participation by 2025. We continue to push pu for its achievement. And on clim climate, Australia continue to advocate will con an amb ambitious agenda that p puts technological solutions and research solut

and development at the heart of the pathway to net zero emissions. Getting low-emissions technologies to technical and commercial parity will make net zero achievable – not just for advanced economies, but also for developing countries that will no longer have to choose between growth and decarbonisation. The G7 focus on climate adaptation and resilience resonates strongly, following the devastating bushfires, cyclones and flooding Australians have endured in recent years, as well as the loss and destruction many of our close Indo-Pacific neighbours have experienced from increasingly severe natural disasters. What this recent period has underlined is that institutions and forums such as the G7, the G20, the World Health Organization, the World Trade Organization and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development matter – profoundly. As great liberal democracies, our collective leadership can guide the global economic recovery and drive genuine progress on the core global and strategic issues that define our time. We can leverage the trust we share to form new habits and modes of partnership. And clearly articulate the opportunities these partnerships create: to promote and defend our shared values and interests, and to continue to shape international rules and norms for the benefit of all. We should not take our values for granted. We should defend what is important to us, and remain the masters of our destiny. Through doing so, we set an example to all other nations that share our values, demonstrating that they too have choices and strong allies in resisting coercion in the pursuit of their own sovereign interests. We have a rich history of cooperation to draw on as we take our next steps together. We have done it before and we can do it again through each country playing its part. Australia may have been physically separated this past year, but we have never been more tied to our region, or to the global community of nations whose aspirations for a peaceful, stable and prosperous future we share. Australia is pleased to bring our Indo-Pacific perspective to the G7 in 2021, to offer our own experiences, and contribute to this critical agenda. globalgovernanceproject.org globalgovernanceproject.org

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

Cyril Ramaphosa President, South Africa

Hope on the horizon

e are currently in the midst of one of the moments in history when the entire global community has been dealt a collective blow with the outbreak of COVID-19. The world has, at various times over the past year, been brought to a standstill in the face of this invisible threat. Yet as with previous global calamities, we have proven to be resilient, and there is once again hope on the horizon as significant progress has been made in the development and distribution of a vaccine. The global spread of COVID-19 and the collective effort to contain the ensuing damage it has caused have not only uncovered the vulnerabilities we face in terms of the global healthcare infrastructure, but have also underscored the urgency with which we need to act to address the poverty and inequality that prevails across the world. The pandemic has led to an increase in the demand for medical goods, with many countries facing shortages and unable to respond effectively to the virus. This inequality in resources has adversely affected the global value chain and starkly exposed the lack of capacity of many countries, particularly developing countries, in manufacturing, procuring and distributing medical goods and vaccines. South Africa is among Africa’s most adversely affected countries, with more than 1.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19. The growing numbers, coupled with the discovery of the new variants of the virus, have placed great pressure on the national healthcare system and caused significant loss of lives and livelihoods. South Africa has taken delivery of the first consignment of the vaccine and has begun its staggered rollout, starting with front-line health workers and the most vulnerable. During my tenure as the chair of the African Union in 2020, I had the honour to be elected as the co-chair of the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator and COVAX

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COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility alongside Prime Minister Erna Solberg of Norway. This facility allows for a more coordinated way to pool our resources to fight the pandemic. To date, $11.1 billion of ACT-A’s required $38.1 billion budget has been committed. We implore more countries to invest substantially in this initiative to avoid vaccine nationalism and enable the mass procurement and distribution of COVID-19 vaccine supplies around the world. As a result of this global health crisis we have been able to gain insight into the devastating consequences of climate change. Parallels can be drawn between the two as both transcend borders, both affect the poor disproportionally and both require concerted collective government action to overcome. Climate change is a shared priority of the G7 and the G20, and work needs to continue to raise the ambition and commitments to improve energy efficiency, reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, safeguard the environment and protect biodiversity. The G7 Cornwall Summit will pave the way towards the 26th Conference of the Parties later this year in Glasgow, Scotland. South Africa, along with the developing world, anticipates that the United Kingdom as co-host of COP26 will advance the pillars of mitigation and adaptation of the Paris Agreement with equal measure. The global energy transition should be mindful of the socio-economic impact on developing countries. It should ensure that commitments by developing countries are achievable and undertaken in the context of a balanced and comprehensive package, which includes

the means of implementation through technical support and capacity building in accordance with national circumstance South Africa remains committed to strengthening the multilateral system of global governance and will continue to advocate for an equitable and rules-based international political and economic order. South Africa calls for continuity in building and advancing a common agenda between the countries of the South and the North. The economic recovery plans of the COVID-19 pandemic should be consistent with the 2030 Agenda on the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement on climate change and must also address long-term development deficits and create resilient economies and societies, with a central role for locally available renewable energy resources. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

Narendra Modi Prime Minister, India

limate change and calamities are major challenges today. Both are interlinked. There are two ways to fight them. One is through policies, laws, rules and orders. … But, there is something beyond the world of policies, laws, rules and orders. The most powerful way to fight climate change is behavioural change. … This spirit of behaviour change is a key part of our traditional habits, which teach us consumption with compassion. A mindless throw away culture is not a part of our ethos. Look at our farming methods or our foods. Look at our mobility patterns or in energy consumption patterns. I am proud of our farmers, who are constantly using modern techniques of irrigation. There is growing awareness on improving soil health and reducing use of pesticides. … There is a growing demand for healthy and organic food. India can drive this global change through our spices, our Ayurveda products and more. … For large scale behaviour change, we need to offer solutions that are innovative, affordable and powered by public participation. … Waste to wealth is becoming the buzzword in India. Our citizens are coming up with unique recycling models in diverse sectors. This would give a boost to the circular economy. ... It would make you all happy that over the last seven years, India’s forest cover has grown significantly. The population of lions, tigers, leopards and water fowls has grown. These are great indicators of positive behavioural changes. It is these changes that convince us that India is well on track to achieve its Paris Agreement targets well before the target date of 2030. … India’s vision for environmental transitions includes working with like-minded countries. … Nature keeps a simple balance sheet. Whatever is available or credited can be used or debited. But this has to be distributed properly because if we over consume resources we are snatching it from someone else. …

Climate justice

focused on green energy. But green energy is only the means. The destination we seek is a greener planet. Our culture’s deep respect for forests and green cover is translating into out-standing results. According to the FAO’s Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020: India is among the top 3 countries to have gained in forest areas in the last decade. … Address to the World Sustainable Development Summit, 10 February 2021

inspired by a vision of trusteeship – where growth comes with greater compassion to the poorest. Climate justice also means giving the developing countries enough space to grow. … India’s intent is supported by concrete action. Powered by spirited public efforts, we are on track to exceed our commitments and targets from Paris. We committed to reduce emissions intensity of GDP [gross domestic product] by 33 to 35 percent from 2005 levels. You would be happy to know that a drop of 24 percent in the emission intensity has already been achieved. … Sustainable development is incomplete without equitable access. In this direction too, India has made good progress. In March 2019, India achieved nearly hundred percent electrification. This was done through sustainable technologies and innovative models. … We are working to increase the share of natural gas in India’s energy basket from 6 percent to 15 percent. … Often, discussions on sustainability become too

India is moving ahead with the resolve to become self-reliant. This aspiration for India’s self-reliance will renew globalism. And I am convinced that this campaign will get a great help from Industry 4.0. … Experts point out that Industry 4.0 has four main factors – Connectivity, Automation, Artificial Intelligence or Machine Learning and Real-Time Data. Today, India is one of the countries in the world where the cheapest data is available, where mobile connectivity and smart phones are also available in remote areas. The expert pool of India’s automation design is also huge and most of the global companies have engineering centres in India. … The Corona crisis has reminded us of the value of humanism. We have to remember that Industry 4.0 is not for robots but for humans. We have to make sure that technology becomes the tool of ease of living and not a trap. … World Economic Forum’s Davos Agenda, 25 January 2021

Keynote address to CERAWeek, 5 March 2021

The road to fighting climate change is through climate justice. … Climate justice is also about thinking of the bigger and long term picture. The sad reality is – changes in the environment and natural disasters impact the poor the most. Climate justice is 24

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GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

Moon Jae-in President, Korea

Opportunity from crisis

o one could have predicted that Korea would emerge as a model country more exemplary than other advanced nations in the fight against COVID-19. However, we have done it. No one could have imagined that Korea would become the country to restore its economy to pre-COVID-19 levels the fastest among the OECD member states. However, we have successfully pulled it off … [O]ur economy has already recovered to the pre-COVID-19 level during the first quarter of this year – faster than that of any other OECD member. … Improved economic indicators do not immediately translate into the betterment of people’s lives. The crisis is further deepening inequality. Only when the warmth of economic recovery is tangible to everyone can we say “full economic recovery” has been achieved. The overriding requirement for full economic recovery is job recovery. The employment situation is improving, but it has yet to reach pre-crisis levels. We will focus our policy capabilities to ensure that the recent economic rebound trend leads to job recovery. … [O]ur economy is becoming stronger by turning crisis into opportunity. Our country joined the ranks of the world’s ten largest economies amid the he crisis last year and outstripped one G7 member state in terms rms of GDP per capita for the first time in history. Our flagship agship industries such as semiconductors and batteries ries are taking the lead ased on their unrivalled in global supply chains based building industry has competitiveness. The shipbuilding ollapse to recapture the climbed back from near collapse world’s No. 1 position in a resounding way. When oduction, our country has it comes to automobile production, also become one of the world’s orld’s top five powerhouses ave outpaced others with as domestic automakers have such eco-friendly cars as electric and hydrogen-fueled vehicles. … as seen its national status The Republic of Korea has ent that the country significantly rise to an extent mmits has been invited to G7 summits for two consecutive years. D-19 Korea’s response to COVID-19 has become a global standard, and the world iss paying attention to our economy’s astonishing resilience and growth globalgovernanceproject.org

potential. … The Republic of Korea is progressing into a soft power force thanks to our appeal in terms of the economy, culture, arts, science, healthcare and democracy as well as our contribution to the international community. This has become our pride. … At the end of last year, the Government declared the goal of 2050 carbon neutrality. Carbon neutrality is an inevitable task which humanity must push forward together. The Government has made such new and renewable energy as solar and wind power a greater part of our energy mix while reducing the number of coal-fired power plants earlier than originally scheduled. We are also spurring the transition into a hydrogen economy. … The Government will make 2021 the first year of Korea’s carbon neutrality. The transition to a low-carbon economy is not just an eco-friendly policy. It will serve as an enormous opportunity to create new technologies and industries and create many jobs. The P4G Summit … is a great opportunity to demonstrate our leading role while strengthening the international community’s cooperation in responding to climate change. We will make it an opportunity to raise the Republic of Korea’s status as a responsible middle-power nation. … Special Address to Mark Four Years in Office, 10 May 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the trade and investment environment to shrink and an “our country first” policy and protectionism to spread. In the short term, these can serve as walls to protect individual economies, but they will end up becoming barriers that impede global economic recovery. In the post-COVID-19 era, the international community’s solidarity and cooperation will be paramount for coexistence and new prosperity. The future of humanity will also become sustainable when large and small countries as well as advanced and developing countries work together on an equal footing, respectful of each other. Therefore, we must use multilateral cooperation, which has strengthened inclusiveness, as a stepping stone to a new era. I hope that the RCEP agreement signed last year will help accelerate regional economic cooperation, restore confidence in multilateralism and advance free trade. … Remarks to the Opening of Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, 20 April 2021

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea has never enforced any lockdowns or border closures. This clearly demonstrates that Korea, more than anything, is a safe and stable business partner and investment destination. … … Solidarity and cooperation, not each of us fighting our battles alone, is what makes us stronger in defeating the pandemic. Let us embrace this idea and work to bring it to reality. … World Economic Forum’s Davos Agenda, 27 January 2021 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

EDITORS' INTRODUCTIONS

Building back better at the G7’s Cornwall Summit John Kirton director, G7 Research Group

he 47th annual G7 summit, on 11–13 June 2021 in Cornwall on the United Kingdom’s Atlantic coast, is unusually significant. It is the first regular G7 summit and the first in-person G7 summit in two years. It features unusually close coordination between British prime minister Boris Johnson as G7 host and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi, hosting the G20 summit in Rome on 30–31 October. Both co-host the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow on 1–12 November. Cornwall is also the first summit of the ‘Democratic 10’, with the G7 reinforced by India, Australia, Korea and South Africa. Cornwall is also the first regular, in-person G7 summit for US president Joe Biden and Draghi, both bringing great international experience in the central issues Cornwall confronts. It is the last G7 summit for its longest serving veteran, German chancellor Angela Merkel. They join Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau at his eighth and French president Emmanuel Macron at his sixth, including the ad hoc virtual ones on 16 March and 16 April 2020 and on 19 February 2021. Japanese prime minister Yoshihide Suga is at his second. The European Union is represented by Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen, who have participated in all the virtual summits. India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, will participate virtually, and the other guest leaders are scheduled to travel to Cornwall. PRESSING MATTERS These leaders confront unprecedentedly severe, urgent and interconnected crises. Health comes first, with COVID-19 and its variants creating new highs in cases and deaths in India and the world. The economy, finance, trade and development come second, as COVID-19 constrains the robust recovery recently underway. Climate change comes third, an existential

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threat now reaching critical tipping points. Political security pervades everything, as Russia and China, weapons of mass destruction in Iran and North Korea, and regional security threats in the Middle East and Africa, Afghanistan, Myanmar and northeast Asia imperil economic, social and ecological progress and the open democracy and human rights that the G7 was created to preserve and promote. Johnson has long looked to his G7 summit to make his ‘Global Britain’ work for his own citizens and the world. The UK brings formidable assets: territories in most global regions; superb scientists and universities that produced an effective COVID-19 vaccine in record time; leadership in countering climate change at home and abroad; a global financial centre in London; a democratic tradition dating back to the Magna Carta in 1215; and a beloved sovereign heading the 54-member Commonwealth spanning the world. Early on, Johnson set his summit priorities, which meet the key needs of today. At the UN in September 2020 he promised to focus on simultaneously controlling present and future pandemics and climate change. He mounted an intense set of ministerial meetings: finance on 12 February, 19 March, 2 April and 28 May; health on 29 March; trade

on 31 March; digital and technology on 28 April; transport on 5 May; foreign affairs and development on 4–5 May, and the environment on 20–21 May. Further momentum comes from G7 members’ historically high compliance of 94% with commitments made at the G7 emergency virtual summit in March 2020. There was also a historic fast start in 2021 from supportive plurilateral summits, led by Johnson’s virtual G7 summit in February, Biden’s new Quadrilateral Summit with Japan, India and Korea on 12 March and his Leaders Summit on Climate on 22–23 April. With such support, Cornwall’s leaders are set to produce a summit of strong success. On COVID-19 they will finally pave a way to get vaccines to all who need them everywhere, help countries produce their own, and foster higher quality, more universal healthcare systems to bring life and well-being to many. On the economy, they will deal with their own surging deficits and debts, rising inflation and interest rates, and the debt burdens and defaults in poorer countries, by agreeing on a fairer international tax system and more financial assistance through the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, whose executive boards they control. On climate change they will finally agree to act very soon to smother fossil fuel subsidies, coal finance and methane emissions, increase the volume and standards of climate finance, and even discover the critical value of nature-based solutions from fully reliable renewables and carbon sinks on land and in seas. They will also declare that new attacks on democracy, human rights or other’s territories will not succeed. Their biggest challenge will be sending this message to China and Russia, while having them fully work with the G7 and D10 to control climate change before it is too late.

JOHN KIRTON John Kirton is director of the G7 and G20 Research Groups, co-director of the BRICS Research Group, and co-director of the Global Health Diplomacy Program, all based at the University of Toronto, where he is a professor of political science. A visiting professor at the School for International Relations and Public Affairs at Shanghai International Studies University and a distinguished fellow of the Guangdong Institute for International Strategies at Guangdong University for Foreign Studies, he is the author of G20 Governance for a Globalized World and China’s G20 Leadership, and co-author of The Global Governance of Climate Change: G7, G20 and UN Leadership. @jjkirton : www.g7.utoronto.ca globalgovernanceproject.org

EDITORS' INTRODUCTIONS

The United Kingdom’s approach to the G7 Sir Nicholas Bayne former British diplomat

he G7 summit needs a fundamental reset in 2021. This should be no surprise. The summit exists to solve intractable problems that defy treatment elsewhere. It may not find the right answer the first time and often needs a complete change of direction. The summit was created in 1975, by French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and German chancellor Helmut Schmidt, who won over US president Gerald Ford. It aimed to resolve the economic crises of the day through collective management, which would replace US hegemony. Its first meeting, which I attended, introduced a monetary regime that still survives. Its fourth agreed linked commitments on growth, energy and trade. In the 1980s it added political issues such as terrorism to economic ones. The British leaders present at summits (Harold Wilson, James Callaghan and even Margaret Thatcher) contributed more to process than policy. They saw the summit as the personal instrument of the leaders. They chose ‘sherpas’ for the preparations who could exercise authority in their leader’s name. They insisted on informality at the summit itself. Callaghan recorded simply that the numbers were small; the discussions business-like; the leaders talked frankly and briefly, and covered a lot of ground.

When the Soviet system collapsed, the G7 took the lead in promoting democracy and market economies in countries breaking free. John Major chaired the summit in 1991. He made progress in helping Eastern Europe and in debt relief for poor countries, a personal crusade. Mikhail Gorbachev came as a guest, but the Soviet Union soon fell apart. Major then worked to lighten the G7 process, which paid dividends for his successor Tony Blair. Blair chaired the 1998 summit with only leaders present; Russia was added to make it the G8. The agenda had three main items – jobs, crime and finance, including debt relief. The finance issues were not resolved the first time, but the next year’s summit succeeded. Blair chaired again in 2005. One agenda item was Africa, which yielded good results on debt relief and aid volume. The other was climate change, where agreement was reached on the science, which led to the United States rejoining the United Nations debate. African leaders and major greenhouse gas emitters, including Brazil, China and India, took part in the summit. HARDER TIMES Thereafter the G8 summit entered hard times. It failed to foresee the financial crisis erupting in September 2008. The G20 finance ministers’ group was raised to summit level and declared the “premier

SIR NICHOLAS BAYNE Sir Nicholas Bayne KCMG was a British diplomat for 35 years. He served in Manila, Bonn and Paris, as an ambassador in Kinshasa, UK representative to OECD, economic director-general at the 8ŅųåĜčĹ ±ĹÚ ŅĵĵŅĹƵå±ĬƋĘ kþÏå ±ĹÚ ĘĜčĘ ÏŅĵĵĜŸŸĜŅĹåų in Ottawa. In 1999 to 2020 he taught economic diplomacy at the London School of Economics. He attended the inaugural Rambouillet Summit in 1975 and was at Paris 1989, Houston 1990, London 1991 and Halifax 1995. He has published several books and chapters on G7 summitry and economic diplomacy.

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forum for our international economic cooperation”. The G8 struggled to find a role compatible with the G20 summit. David Cameron solved this problem as G8 chair in 2013. He chose a short agenda – trade, tax avoidance and transparency – to complement the G20 without clashing with it. This approach proved acceptable to the G20. In 2014, after Russia overran Crimea, the other states suspended it from the summit, which became the G7 again. Its worst ordeal came after US president Donald Trump took office. He had no interest in collective management. He abused his allies at the G7 table and preferred dealing with autocratic leaders from China, Russia and even North Korea. The summits he attended achieved little. The arrival of Joe Biden as US president revives the prospects for the G7 summit, as he has recommitted the United States to multilateralism. Accordingly, the United Kingdom has chaired virtual meetings of the G7 heads and their finance, foreign, health and trade ministers. These have pledged to ensure COVID-19 vaccines reach all who need them, in support of the World Health Organization; to promote a new issue of special drawing rights by the International Monetary Fund; to revive the World Trade Organization; and to pursue reforms of business taxation through the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Boris Johnson can therefore confidently pursue a forward strategy for the Cornwall Summit, making it once again the personal instrument of the leaders, meeting informally to address a compact and well-prepared agenda. The participation of leaders from Australia, India, Korea and South Africa should enrich the debate, by enlarging its geographical reach. Johnson has already identified two main themes. The first is responding to COVID-19, especially the global distribution of vaccines and the restoration of the world economy. The second is preparing for the UN meeting on climate change in Glasgow, to restore momentum to the Paris Agreement and promote the actions needed to achieve net zero emissions of greenhouse gases. Political subjects should include a joint statement on open societies, and regional issues such as Myanmar and Ukraine. Some topics, such as financial help for poorer countries stricken by the virus, are ripe for the G20 summit in November and call for close liaison with its Italian chair. The G7 summit has already changed direction at least six times. May the Cornwall Summit provide a lucky seventh reinvention! 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19

G7 performance on

health At a time when public health is a foremost consideration, the G7 can take concrete steps to significantly improve compliance with its commitments

lthough the COVID-19 pandemic is the largest health crisis in recent history, the G7 has discussed health since 1979. However, in 2020, the only meeting of G7 leaders to produce a declaration was a virtual summit on 16 March to respond to COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS There have been 50,467 words on health in G7 summit communiqués since 1979, with an average 1,073 words (8%) per summit. There were 81 dedicated documents on health, or an average of two per summit, with a peak of seven in 2006, followed by six in 2009. The G7 dedicated at least 400 words on health per summit up to 1995. The focus intensified after 1996, with 825 (5%) that year and 1,400 (11%) in 1997. It dipped in

MEAGAN BYRD Meagan Byrd is the chair of summit studies for the G7 Research Group and an analyst with the G20 Research Group, based at the University of Toronto. Ęå Ƶ±Ÿ ± ĵåĵÆåų Ņü ƋĘå ĀåĬÚ Ƌå±ĵ üŅų ƋĘå :ƖǈűŸ ŸƚĵĵĜƋ ĜĹ ƚåĹŅŸ eĜųåŸ ĜĹ ƖǈŎí ±ĹÚ ƋĘå :ƀűŸ ŸƚĵĵĜƋ in Biarritz in 2019. Her research interests include international journalism, political communications and diplomacy. Meagan holds an honours bachelor of arts in political science from the University of Toronto. @MeaganKByrd : www.g7.utoronto.ca

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Meagan Byrd, chair, summit studies, G7 Research Group 1998 and 1999 but then steadily rose. From 2000 to 2010, each summit had at least 1,400 words on health, ranging between 4% and 26% of total words. The 2006 summit produced the highest number of words on health at 7,072 (23%). From 2011 to 2014, each summit produced under 1,000 words on health (between 6% and 26%). In 2015, the G7 dedicated 2,190 words (17.3%) to health. This increased in 2016 to 6,087 words (26%), declined to 885 words (10%) in 2017 and 713 words (6.3%) in 2018, then increased to 1,145 words (16%) in 2019. At the 2020 Virtual Summit, the G7 leaders dedicated 236 words (44%) to health. COMMITMENTS The G7 has made 442 collective, politically binding, future-oriented commitments related to health. The first was in 1979 on hunger and malnutrition. The first core health commitment was in 1983. The 1991 summit made three commitments (6%). In 1996, 2% of commitments were on health. From 1996 onwards, there was at least one commitment on health. At 13%, the 2000 summit was the first time health commitments exceeded 10%. From 2001 to 2005, between 4% and 10% of commitments were on core health and health-related subjects. In 2006, 18% were on health, and 12% in 2007. The focus on health spiked in 2010 to 27%, but decreased to 4% in 2011, and 1% in 2012 and 2013. It rose again in 2015 to 16% and globalgovernanceproject.org

in 2016 to 24%, before the focus shifted away from health. At the 2020 Virtual Summit, 30% of the commitments were on health. COMPLIANCE Compliance with the core health commitments averaged 74%, for the 81 assessed by the G7 Research Group. This was slightly lower than the 76% average across all subjects. The first health commitment in 1983 had 100% compliance, as did the one in 2012. Other high-complying commitments came in 2013 at 95%, 2001 at 94% and 2014 at 92%. G7 members had low compliance from 2008 to 2011. A commitment made in 2008 achieved only 59% compliance, followed by 69% with a 2009 commitment, 57% with a 2010 commitment and 45% with a 2011 commitment. The lowest compliance was 25% with a commitment in 2017. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS The G7 can try increase this compliance in three ways. First, it can host ministerial meetings on health prior to the leaders’ summit. Four summits (2006, 2015, 2016 and 2020) that had such ministerial meetings averaged

Compliance with the core health commitments averaged 74%, for the 81 assessed by the G7 Research Group” 85% compliance, 11% higher than the average on health. Second, the G7 can make more health commitments. The 11 summits with the highest compliance averaged 89% and made 245 commitments. The lowest scoring summits, which averaged 60% compliance, made only 159 commitments. The 11 lowest complying summits made 40% fewer commitments than the 11 highest complying ones. Third, in the text of their commitments, G7 leaders make more references to multilateral organisations related

to health, such as the World Health Organization. The 11 highest scoring summits had more than seven references to multilateral organisations. The lowest scoring 11 summits made under seven such references. These results suggest that to increase the compliance with their health commitments, G7 members should host health ministerial meetings prior to the leaders’ summit, make more commitments on health and increase references to external multilateral organisations related to health.

G7 performance on health, 1975–2020 100

442

collective, politically binding, future-oriented commitments related to health have been made by the G7

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Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%) 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19

Breaking down vaccine barriers Unequal vaccine distribution risks mutations forming and prolonging the pandemic. Governments must cooperate on vaccine rollout in order to simultaneously suppress the virus

istory will record the development and approval of not one but several safe and effective vaccines against COVID-19 within a year of sequencing the virus that causes it as a scientific turning point – an accomplishment that sets a new standard that will forever alter expectations about what is possible in vaccine development. The public research institutions, private companies, researchers and trial participants who made this possible deserve all the accolades they get. But as we often say, it’s not vaccines that save lives; it’s vaccinations. We now face an even greater task to vaccinate as much of the world’s population as possible as quickly as possible, and as equitably as possible. By mid May 2021, high- and upper-middle income countries – 53% of the world’s population – had administered 83% of the world’s vaccines. Meanwhile, low- and lower-middle income countries, which make up 47% of the world’s people, had received just 17% of the world’s vaccines. In January, I challenged the international community to work together to see vaccinations underway in all countries within the first 100 days of the year. By 10 April – the 100th day – all but 26 countries had started vaccinations, and of those, 12 were about to start, leaving 14 countries that had either not requested vaccines through COVAX or were not ready to start vaccinating. But the amount of vaccines delivered has been totally insufficient. At the time of writing, COVAX has distributed almost 60 million doses of vaccine to 122 countries and economies – covering just 0.5% of their combined population of more than four billion.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general, World Health Organization

The problem is not getting vaccines out of COVAX; the problem is getting them in. Severe supply constraints have deprived COVAX and the countries relying on it of the vaccines they need to protect their health workers and most at-risk people. I understand full well that every government is obliged to protect its own people – and that’s what every government is trying to do. But we cannot defeat this virus one country at a time. The fastest way out of the pandemic is to suppress the virus everywhere at the same time. In time, there will be enough vaccines for everyone. But for now, vaccines are a limited resource that we must use as effectively as possible, which means distributing them as equitably as possible. Beyond the moral imperative, there are sound epidemiological and economic reasons for vaccine equity. The longer the virus circulates anywhere, the more opportunity it has to mutate in ways that could make vaccines less effective, putting us all back at square one. And the longer the pandemic drags on, the longer the economic recovery does. All this means that supporting vaccine equity is not charity. It is an investment in ending the pandemic, restoring confidence and driving a truly global recovery. It’s in every country’s own best interests. With the leadership of the G7, we have an opportunity to fix the global imbalance in vaccine access, in three essential ways. First, we need to close the $19 billion funding gap for the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator to provide the funds needed for vaccines, as well as diagnostics and therapeutics. Second, we need countries to donate vaccines to COVAX immediately.

TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was elected director-general of the World Health Organization in 2017. He was the first person from the WHO African Region to serve as WHO’s chief technical and administrative officer. He served as Ethiopia’s minister of foreign affairs from 2012 to 2016 and minister of health from 2005 to 2012. He was elected chair of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Board in 2009, and previously chaired the Roll Back Malaria Partnership Board, and co-chaired the Partnership for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Board. Twitter @DrTedros  who.int

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021 globalgovernanceproject.org

83%

of vaccinations have occured in high- and upper-middle income countries

17%

have gone to lowand lower-middle income countries,

Third, we need to pull out all the stops to increase production. That includes voluntary licensing, sharing technology and know-how, and waiving intellectual property rights. We appreciate the recent announcement by the United States that it will support IP waiver negotiations at the World Trade Organization. There are those who argue that IP waivers are not the major barrier to scaling up vaccine production. I say, why leave any barrier in the way? Solving the vaccine crisis is essential for bringing the pandemic and the economic turmoil it has caused to the swiftest possible end. But an even greater challenge lies ahead: how to ensure the lessons of the pandemic are learned and the right changes made to ensure it is never repeated. The World Health Organization looks forward to working with our members to discuss the recommendations of the various panels and committees that have painstakingly reviewed various parts of the response. Already it is clear that a global consensus is converging on the idea of a treaty on pandemic preparedness and response, to globalgovernanceproject.org

Supporting vaccine equity is not charity. It is an investment in ending the pandemic, restoring confidence and driving a truly global recovery”

provide a framework for international cooperation and solidarity, rooted in a strengthened, empowered and sustainably resourced WHO. I am grateful to the G7 leaders who have so far expressed support for the proposed treaty, and I hope the other leaders will follow suit. Now more than ever, this is a moment for bold, creative leadership not just to end the pandemic, but to build the foundations of global health security and a healthier, safer, fairer and more sustainable future. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

Racing to vaccinate the world Seth Berkley, CEO, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance

ore than six months after the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved there are now more than a dozen available, and yet the pandemic is still raging. It should now be clear to everyone that vaccines alone will not stop this pandemic. We also need vaccinations – because as long as the virus is able to circulate and has the opportunity to mutate, this crisis will continue and the global economic recovery will be delayed. That means until all high-risk people in all corners of the world are protected, there can be no winners. So, although the race to develop a vaccine is over, a new one has begun: the race to vaccinate the world. As with any race, timing is critical. Thanks to generous support from G7 leaders we now have a way to ensure that people in all countries are able to get access to these vaccines, through COVAX and its Advance Market Commitment. We are confident that COVAX will deliver on its promise of supplying more than two billion doses of vaccine to participating economies by the end of the year – but we need to get there quicker. The longer reinfection continues, the longer efforts to resume trade, commerce and travel will continue to stall, and the greater the risk that new variants will emerge. This will

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

To bring the COVID-19 crisis to a close, we must ensure equitable access to vaccinations – a task that COVAX is striving for directly affect the G7 vision to build back better from coronavirus and create a greener, more prosperous future. But that is not the only reason why speed is as important as equitable access. A fully funded COVAX AMC will allow us to protect up to 30% of people in 91 lower-income countries, people who would normally have limited or no access to these vaccines. But given that we still do not know how long immunity lasts with these vaccines, any delay in protecting those people who face the highest risk, such as front-line health and social care workers and vulnerable people, risks us needing to protect those same people again with booster shots before others have even received their first shot. BREAKING DOWN BARRIERS At a time when many countries still face supply limitations, it is in everyone’s interest to avoid that situation. However, although there are bottlenecks, the total global supply of vaccines is actually quite healthy. globalgovernanceproject.org

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19

Although the race to develop a vaccine is over, a new one has begun: the race to vaccinate the world”

2bn

goal of vaccine doses to COVAX participating countries by year end

30%

of people in 91 countries could be protected by a fully funded COVAX AMC

SETH BERKLEY A medical doctor and epidemiologist, Seth Berkley joined Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, as CEO in 2011. Previously, he founded the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative in 1996 and served as president and CEO for 15 years. Bå Ƶ±Ÿ ±Ĺ ŅþÏåų Ņü ƋĘå Bå±ĬƋĘ ÏĜåĹÏåŸ Division at the Rockefeller Foundation, and has worked for the Center for Infectious Diseases of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and the Carter Center, where he was assigned as an epidemiologist at the Ministry of Health in Uganda. ƈÃ:°Ʋě äƊėƈ ƈ ƈ: gavi.org

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If they are prioritised for high-risk individuals, there should be enough doses to go around. One way to achieve this is by governments donating surplus doses for equitable distribution through COVAX. G7 leaders have already played a key role in driving this, both in terms of donating their own surplus and in encouraging other governments to do the same. Similarly, access to vaccines can be accelerated if the governments of self-financing participants of COVAX transfer their allocated doses to lower-income countries through the AMC. At the same time, we need to address manufacturing bottlenecks. In the short term, that means engaging with all players, to maximise manufacturing output and discourage export bans, which threaten not only access to these vaccines, but also the flow of vital components, materials and ingredients used to make them, as well as other critical health products. But for the longer term, these supply issues have identified serious weak spots in our ability as a global community to respond to pandemics. Technology transfers have played an essential role in ensuring that the world gets COVID-19 vaccines rapidly and in large volumes. But there needs to be more of this, through greater collaboration between those that know how to make vaccines and those that need them the most, and we need to look seriously at how we can increase global vaccine manufacturing capacity, particularly in emerging economies. This would help us bring the current crisis to an end, and it would also strengthen global preparedness for future pandemics. Given the ambitions and vision of the UK’s Pandemic Preparedness Partnership, launched as part of its G7 presidency, that is something that needs to be factored into all our thinking now. Without a doubt there will be a next time – it is an evolutionary certainty. We can therefore not afford not to solve these issues now and equally must build on our current successes, like COVAX and the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator. When the pandemic was first declared, we did not know whether to view it as a dress rehearsal or a global tragedy. We now know it is a little of both. We must use this opportunity to build the systems to mitigate future crises. We all have our part to play. Because no one is safe until everyone is safe. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19

Major COVID-19 milestones

CARPHA’s regional response to the COVID-19 pandemic

5 Feb 2020 CARPHA Medical Microbiology Laboratory ready to accept specimens for testing

26–27 Jan 2020 Initiation of situation reports, technical documents

8 Dec 2019 1st known case of COVID-19

The Caribbean is particularly vulnerable to the virus. CARPHA’s early response has put the region in good

30 Jan 2020 Declared Public Health Emergency of International Concern; low risk in Caribbean

29 Jan 2020 Assembly of Regional Coordinating Mechanism for Health Security

standing, but inequalities have been exposed Joy St John, executive director, Caribbean Public Health Agency

he first confirmed case of COVID-19, which was an importation, was reported in the Caribbean on 10 March 2020. By mid April 2021, globally there were over 136 million COVID-19 cases and over 2.9 million deaths reported, with 639,277 confirmed cases in 35 countries in the Caribbean region, of which 147,572 confirmed cases were in CARICOM members. The Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA), the sole public health agency in the region, is leading the public health response to COVID-19 as a health security issue, working closely with member states, the CARICOM Security Cluster, and regional and international public health and development partners through the Regional Coordination Mechanism for Health Security. CARPHA’s active response began in January 2020 by alerting chief medical officers of the developing situation in China, and subsequently activating its Incident Management Team – Emergency Response to prepare for the virus and its variants, as well as to prepare all sectors to mitigate their effects on the socio-economic environment. The Caribbean is the world’s most tourism-dependant region. So COVID-19 has threatened life and livelihoods because tourism is intricately interwoven into our culture and ways of living. However, members here have done better than other regions, showing much lower infection

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

21 Jan 2020 Activation of Incident Management Team Emergency Response

JOY ST JOHN Joy St John was appointed executive director of CARPHA in July 2019. From 2017 to 2019, she was assistant director general of the World Health Organization, responsible for climate change and other determinants of health. She served as the chief medical ŅþÏåų Ņü ±ųÆ±ÚŅŸ üŅų ĵŅųå ƋĘ±Ĺ ŎƖ Ƽå±ųŸØ ±ĹÚ Ƶ±Ÿ ƋĘå ĀųŸƋ ±ųĜÆÆå±Ĺ person to chair the executive board of the World Health Organization, from 2012 to 2013. @CARPHAExDir : carpha.org

rates due to early proactive measures including border closures, surveillance and response, and sustained stringent public health measures. Vaccine roll-out to reach herd immunity, along with public health measures, is the main way to safely reopen tourism and to economic recovery. But vaccine access has been inequitable and slow, not keeping pace with the need to open as in pre–COVID-19 days. CARICOM members’ capacity to rapidly identify, test, quarantine, isolate, treat and trace contacts of new cases and to identify variants is still not up to the scale needed to prevent the deaths those variants produce.

31 Jan 2020 Travel advisories begin globally

CARPHA prioritises the region’s safety and protection. Thus, its response to COVID-19 encompasses a range of versatile activities, including coordination with regional and international agencies and engagement with multiple national and regional sectors. Inescapable challenges are addressed, and some transformed into opportunities. However, this new phase could produce illness and loss of life on a scale that can eliminate whole populations. IMPLICATIONS OF COVID-19 FOR PROTECTING HEALTH IN THE CARIBBEAN COVID-19 is propelled by travel. The Caribbean is thus at increased risk of importing the virus and its variants, and spreading disease, due to the porous borders and interconnectedness of CARICOM members. The pandemic has emphasised inequalities in the accessibility and procurement of supplies, such as test kits and personal protective equipment early in the pandemic and, currently, the accessibility and distribution of vaccines. It has highlighted the inequitable, preferential access bestowed on larger, more powerful countries to fundamental equipment, supplies and vaccines. COVID-19 has also exposed heterogeneous capacities, disparities and gaps for globalgovernanceproject.org

Mar 2020 ńŲÙäŲƈÎīńŷƙŲäŷƈěĸƈƊėäƈ Caribbean begin

30 Jun 2020 CARPHA capacity building, training series begin

5 Mar 2020 Very high risk in Caribbean

25 Feb 2020 Implementation Agency for Crime and Security tracking to include countries with travel advisories

10 Mar 2020 Declared a pandemic

1 Mar 2020 1st case of COVID-19 in Caribbean

monitoring, surveillance and response to public health emergencies nationally, regionally and globally. CARPHA’S REGIONAL RESPONSE TO COVID-19 CARPHA leads the Caribbean’s coordinated, public health response to COVID-19 through its multi-faceted, multipronged approach, including facilitating regional coordination through the heads of government, the Council for Human and Social Development, the Regional Coordination Mechanism for Health Security, chief medical officers, the Expert Advisory Group on COVID-19 and the Incident Management Team. It also provides coordination for the health, tourism, security and education sectors. It conducts epidemiological surveillance with situation reports as well as laboratory testing, surveillance and PCR test validation; and it produces technical guidelines for response and testing. It supports capacity building, with COVID-19 health rounds, webinars, and series on tourism health and safety. It participates in the COVID-19 Tourism Task Force and has created Proactive Health Measures for Reopening. It produces risk communications including press releases, briefings, videos and brochures, working with the Regional Health Communication globalgovernanceproject.org

6 Apr 2020 Caribbean: 3,232 cases Globally: 1,211,242 cases

6 April 2020 Cases in 24 CMS

2 Sept 2020 Launch of CARPHA COVID-19 health rounds

Jan 2021 1st known case of UK variant detected in the Caribbean Caribbean; countries begin to receive approved vaccines

19 Nov 2020 1st meeting of COVAX Advance Market Commitment Engagement Group

19 Oct 2020 CMS: 47,658 cases Caribbean: 254,087 cases Globally: 39,945,183 cases

6 Mar 2020 Caribbean: 9 cases Globally: 98,207 cases

26 Feb 2020 Moderate to high risk in Caribbean

6 Feb 2020 Establishment of Expert Advisory Group

11 Mar 2020 1st COVID-19 case in CARPHA member state (CMS)

16 Oct 2020 ŲěäÿĸČƈńĸƈ j F%Ěōľƈ Vaccine (COVAX)

5 Nov 2020 Launch of Healthier Safer Tourism Stamp and mobile app

Network. It has also launched a COVID-19 tracker app, and engages in mobilising resources and supporting procurement for vaccinations and operational research. CARPHA also launched innovative tools for the safe and healthy return to travel through the Caribbean’s Travellers Health Assurance Stamp for Healthier Safer Tourism and the Caribbean Traveller’s Health App. CARPHA remains committed to supporting its members in the fight against COVID-19. However, to save lives, vaccine

17 Feb 2021 Launch of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Survey

4 Jan 2021 CMS: 77,043 cases Caribbean: 372,177 cases Globally: 83,911,133 cases

31 Dec 2020 WHO approves 1st COVID-19 emergency use vaccine, zÿǂäŲƈ ěńb äÎėŰŷƈ vaccine

1 Mar 2021 CMS: 109,764 cases Caribbean: 537,610 cases Globally: 113,820,755 cases

Feb 2021 COVAX vaccine roll-out; CARPHA Caribbean Regulatory System initiates review of COVID-19 vaccines

access must cover our small populations to allow tourism to resume. POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS The short-, medium- and long-term considerations for G7 leaders at the Cornwall Summit are to provide supply of excess vaccines to the Caribbean region through bilateral channels, to facilitate a CARPHA-G7 partnership by allowing for science and research collaboration and to provide the technology for vaccine and PPE production in the region.

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19

Failure to heed lessons learned from prior crises is a symptom of a deeper problem, but multilateral collaboration on interconnected issues can be transformative

Responding to system failures with determination

s the world continues to be challenged by COVID-19, the number of proposals on how to ‘fix’ the system of pandemic preparedness and response has increased. The members of the World Health Organization – then under pressure from the Trump administration – set up two important review committees. One was tasked with – yet again – reviewing the International Health Regulations and an independent panel was asked to assess the performance of the WHO and the larger global health system, including the member states. Other organisations and bodies as well as non-governmental organisations have also been concerned with ‘what went wrong’ and have commissioned reviews or provided proposals for change. And, of course, there is no lack of media investigation and commentary as well as academic and think tank analysis.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Ilona Kickbusch, founding director, Global Health Centre, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies

Many of the proposals have also been put forward by previous committees and reviews. Indeed, one commentator suggested taking the reports issued after the Ebola crisis in 2014–15 and inserting COVID-19 instead of Ebola. That feeling was shared by the 2015 Report of the Ebola Interim Assessment Panel, which globalgovernanceproject.org

stated: “Had the recommendations for revision made in 2011 by the Review Committee in relation to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 been implemented, the global community would have been in a far better position to face the Ebola crisis.” The report adds: “The world simply cannot afford another period of inaction until the next health crisis.” The context has changed, but the frustration about action not taken remains high. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board was one of the mechanisms that was established following the Ebola crisis. Its warnings too went unheeded – three months after its first report, COVID-19 struck. The GPMB’s call for more political commitment, support of the WHO, better financing and better compliance via an international framework has been taken up by the recent review committees in different ways, calling for high-level political commitments and councils at the United Nations, a pandemic framework treaty negotiated at the WHO, new financing mechanisms for global public goods discussed at the G20 and a stronger WHO. A BOLDER RESPONSE Looking back at these experiences and the cycle of panic and neglect, we must begin to see the devastating impact of the pandemic not only as a feature of the lack of compliance with existing instruments but as a deeper system failure that requires a bolder response, reaching out beyond health. Review committees frequently recommend creating new institutions and mechanisms, thus contributing to the already considerable fragmentation of global health. What we require are political leaders with a vision and a willingness to address the system failures in an interconnected but deeply divided global risk society. Five such system failures should be addressed: ∙

the lack of foresight and undervaluing preparedness at national, regional and global levels;

∙

the closing of the mind that leads to weak multilateralism and strong nationalism in times of crisis;

∙

the charity model of global health that has fragmented global health, is not fit for crisis, and reinforces the unwillingness to share and pay for global public goods, in particular the WHO;

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It is a tragedy if we need a health crisis on the scale of the present pandemic to get action taken by the United Nations, the G7 and the G20. But it would be an even greater tragedy if the pandemic does not lead to charting a bold way forward” ∙

the lack of recognition of the multi-sectoral nature of pandemic origins and response, neglect of One Health and planetary health; and

∙

the geopolitical decoupling and provision of support – such as vaccines – not based on need but foreign policy priorities.

No matter what the geopolitical intentions and positions of countries and big powers – we require reliable multilateral collaboration on tackling three issues: climate change, pandemics and global health, and deep inequalities. This must be the approach that underlies all reform efforts. Only then will they be transformative. We require the realisation that these global priorities are deeply interconnected and destroy lives and livelihoods if not addressed in new ways. The Sustainable Development Goals were the first call to change thinking – but they were not able to create a sense of urgency, and 2030 seemed a long way off. It is a tragedy if we need a health crisis on the scale of the present pandemic to get action taken by the United Nations, the G7 and the G20. But it would be an even greater tragedy if the pandemic does not lead to charting a bold way forward.

ILONA KICKBUSCH Ilona Kickbusch is founding director of the Global Health Centre at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. She served on a panel of independent experts to assess the World Health Organization’s response in the Ebola outbreak and is a member of the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board. She previously had a distinguished career with WHO and Yale University, and has published widely on global health governance and global health diplomacy. She is a member of the WHO Council on the Economics of Health For All. @IlonaKickbusch : ilonakickbusch.com

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 Lord Jim O’Neill chair, Chatham House

What’s needed now

n the spirit of never letting a crisis go to waste, what a fortunate coincidence for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his colleagues, having to demonstrate their genuine belief in Global Britain, as well as the United Kingdom being one of the G7 members that suffered so badly due to COVID-19.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

The need for the UK to show leadership could not be clearer. When I led the independent Review into Antimicrobial Resistance for the UK prime minister from 2014 to 2016, who might have dreamt that within five years the world economy would be so devastated by a pandemic? That review

Not only are funding and research essential for halting future health crises, but echoing the finance sector’s post-2008 playbook could also reap benefits

became known for its central proposition that, if AMR was not tackled by 2050, the world could face 10 million deaths every year, and an accumulative economic loss in the vicinity of $100 trillion. This doesn’t look quite so outlandish now. Our review recommended 29 separate interventions across 10 different areas

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that required around $42 billion in finance over a decade to help diminish such worrying numbers from ever happening. Some of these recommendations are equally relevant to trying to halt the risk of future pandemics, either a variant of COVID-19 or something entirely different, as well as stopping AMR. At the core of these ideas are steps that need to stop health being just the preserve of health experts, and embed key aspects of it into the centre of finance. As with everything else, without money, not much will happen. THE NEXT MOVES First of all, as recommended in the interim report of the so-called Monti Commission, on which I sit as a member, the G20 needs to take a copy out of the 2008 playbook, mimic the establishment of the Financial Stability Board and set up a ‘Global Health Board’ under the G20’s leadership. Its job would require finance ministers to rely on experts in the global health structure to provide technical expertise and advice on probable and rising global health threats, allowing the finance ministers to trigger whatever financial flows are necessary to stop those threats from becoming real. Just as the central bankers play the crucial role in the operations of the FSB, the G20’s chief medical officers could play the same role here. The UK, as G7 host, should embrace this idea, recommend it – not least because this year’s G20 host, Italy, is a G7 member. Alongside this, there needs to be permanently funding – not occasionally given monies from official development assistance finances once a crisis hits. It needs all the key requirements to minimise the risk of global health crises, and, when they do break through, to rapidly minimise them. There needs to be a regular ongoing pipeline of necessary research and development for all the surveillance, diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. This could be funded along the same lines that International Monetary Fund quotas are agreed, with the relative size of the economy playing an important role, so a pro-rata system would be fair. Crucially, such instruments should not be regarded as part of normal health department budgets. Rather, they are genuine economy-wide investments to support economic growth, as this crisis has shown. They could either sit in divisions of defence departments, in the spirit of comparing battling COVID-19 with fighting a war. It might even be the case that, due globalgovernanceproject.org

The G20 needs to take a copy out of the 2008 playbook, mimic the establishment of the Financial Stability Board and set up a ‘Global Health Board’ under the G20’s leadership”

to the escalated levels of government debt, that the time has come for a true golden rule in which all government spending is split into current, consumption spending and investment spending. The IMF itself has a major role to play, which the UK should also encourage through its G7 leadership. Through its massive economic brainpower, the IMF needs to lead modern accepted convention into a new, better way of thinking of government accounts, especially as it relates to preventing health diseases. And in parallel to this, the IMF now has no excuse but to also volunteer that it will introduce monitoring health preventiveness as part of its influential Article IV process. Much of the initiative for all this needs to come from the G7 leaders, and it is a great opportunity for the UK as its 2021 host.

LORD JIM O’NEILL Lord O’Neill is chair of Chatham House and vice-chair of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership. Since leaving government in 2015, having been commercial secretary to the UK Treasury, he moved to the House of Lords. He led an independent review into AMR for David Cameron from 2014 to 2016. From 2013 to 2014, he chaired the Cities Growth Commission in the UK. Lord O’Neill worked for Goldman Sachs from 1995 until 2013, spending most of his time there as chief economist. Before 1995, he worked for Swiss Bank Corporation, Marine Midland Bank and Bank of America.

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19

Brain health: key to health, wealth and well-being

HEALTH If someone develops a chronic condition, their ability to look after themselves depends on the brain – likewise the capacity to look after others. There is no health without brain health. The brain itself is under threat. Globally, diseases of the nervous system inflict the largest number of disability adjusted life years, known as DALYs, which constitute a combined index of premature mortality and years lived with disability. Among brain diseases, stroke and dementia account for 62% of DALYS and 87% of deaths. Although the absolute numbers are rising, the number of cases per thousand is declining in G7 countries. We need to find out urgently what contributes to this decline and help apply the lessons worldwide. The pandemic has set a good example of how academia, governments, the private sector and the public can come together to tackle a global health problem. Although the ageing population poses the most immediate challenge, to promote brain health we need to take a life cycle approach, since healthy brain promotion begins even before birth. In 2016 G7

Lessons from how the world has tackled the pandemic could be applied to the rising challenge stemming from the increased incidence of brain disease Vladimir Hachinski, former president, World Federation of Neurology

e are our brains. Brains mediate all human actions and experience, holding the key to health, wealth and well-being.

IN SEARCH OF AN OVERARCHING DEFINITION Brain health has no agreed definition. Typically it is cast as the absence of disease, perpetrating the perception that mental and social well-being can be understood separately from the brain. An overarching definition has been proposed recently based on the World Health Organization’s definition of health: a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being through the continuous development and exercise of the brain. ‘Continuous development’ recognises that our brains are in constant evolution, each action or interaction creating millions of new connections unendingly reshaping itself. To develop the brain requires exercising it cognitively, mentally and socially in optimal balance.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

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leaders called for “interdisciplinary research efforts” on “fundamental aspects of brain functions”. This involves not only understanding what can go awry, but also studying the highest attributes of human life, such as the creation and enjoyment of beauty, a moral sense, and the infinite capacity to discover and to create. WEALTH Progress in the ongoing technical, digital and artificial intelligence revolution depends on innovations and constant adaptation, both mediated through the brain. Wealth needs to be understood broadly, not merely as material abundance but also in terms of human capital, cultural wealth and the creation of environments that make living worthwhile. The world population is ageing. This makes it particularly important that younger generations have all the advantages of brain health. They will represent a relatively smaller proportion of the population and will be expected to do

All human experience and activities occur through the brain. Hence its health is paramount. The G7 could adopt brain health as a unifying, motivating and actionable key to health, wealth and well-being”

87%

of deaths among brain diseases are caused by stroke and dementia

more to sustain and advance the well-being of the world. WELL-BEING The study of happiness and well-being is gaining respectability, but remains largely disconnected from our increasing understanding of the brain. The pandemic has exposed the close connections among isolation, solitude and mental, social and brain health. Those need to be understood together. The pandemic has also intensified the relationships of people forced to live together in close quarters and isolated from those beyond. The need to reach out has greatly accelerated the development and use of internet connectivity and created new virtual communities. These could provide new venues to foster brain healthy relationships.

VLADIMIR HACHINSKI Vladimir Hachinski is a distinguished university professor at Canada’s Western University and the former president of the World Federation of Neurology. He has made major contributions to the understanding, diagnosis, treatment and prevention of stroke and dementia, and leads a dementia prevention/brain health initiative. He introduced the concept of vascular cognitive impairment – the vascular treatable and preventable component of most dementias – and devised a method of identifying it (an ischemic score). In 2017 he received the Prince Mahidol Award in Public Health. globalgovernanceproject.org

NEXT STEPS The G7 has promoted brain health at different meetings to different degrees. Brain health in the proposed broad definition could become the unifying, synergistic priority that could drive health, wealth and well-being in the post-pandemic world. The most immediate task is to find out how to postpone, mitigate or prevent stroke and dementia and educate everyone how to decrease the chances of falling victims to them. All human experience and activities occur through the brain. Hence its health is paramount. The G7 could adopt brain health as a unifying, motivating and actionable key to health, wealth and well-being. As we can see from the synergistic efforts in the fight against the current pandemic, an immediate and promising area is to learn why and how the number of cases per thousand of stroke and dementia is decreasing in G7 countries and applying the lessons globally. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

GLOBAL COMMERCE

G7 performance on

macroeconomic policy Although deliberation on macroeconomic growth has dwindled over the years, there are demonstrated ways that the G7 can increase its compliance in order to continue playing a vital role

trong macroeconomic management is essential for the G7’s effectiveness in global governance. With over a year having passed since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the G7 can be a stabilising force in fostering global macroeconomic growth, and can do so with precise and selective commitments. This should be taken into account when assessing the United Kingdom’s macroeconomic growth priority at the G7 Cornwall Summit in June 2021. CONCLUSIONS Although the G7 consistently pays attention to macroeconomic growth, its deliberation on macroeconomics has noticeably declined over time. This can be measured by the size of the summit’s conclusions on macroeconomics in its annual outcome documents. At the 1975 summit, 52% of the words in its communiqué were dedicated to governing macroeconomic policy. From then to 1984, deliberation fell significantly, averaging 29%. It continued to fall over the next two decades: from 1985 to 1994 it averaged 14%, and from 1995 to 2004 it averaged only 6%, hitting an all-time low of 0.2% of words in 2006. Deliberation remained under 10% from 2007 to 2018. But it spiked to 31.1% at Biarritz in 2019. COMMITMENTS Since 1975, the G7 made 277 collective, politically binding, future-oriented commitments on macroeconomic policy, accounting for 5% of the 6,015 commitments identified by the G7 Research Group. Similar to the G7’s performance on deliberation, the number of commitments on macroeconomic policy declined over

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Jane Filipiuk, G7 Research Group

time. Between 1975 and 1984, commitments on macroeconomics averaged 19% of the total commitments. Between 1985 and 1994, this percentage dropped to 13%, and then fell to 2% between 1995 and 2004. Between 2005 and 2014, these commitments rose only slightly, averaging 5%. From 2015 to 2020, the number of commitments dedicated to macroeconomics peaked at 6% at the 2016 summit, then fell to 2% in 2017, 5% in 2018 and hit an all-time low of zero in 2019. In March 2020, at their emergency summit responding to the COVID-19 outbreak, G7 leaders made eight commitments on macroeconomic policy, representing 32% of the total of 25 commitments at that summit. COMPLIANCE G7 members’ compliance with their macroeconomic commitments has remained stable since 1975. On the 18 macroeconomic policy commitments assessed for compliance, the average was 86%. The three commitments assessed from the 1998, 1999 and 2000 summits averaged 100% each. Compliance dropped in the following decade, hitting 63% in 2003 and an all-time low of 61% in 2004. In 2011, compliance with the only assessed commitment was high at 95%. It remained relatively high with an average of 85% for the four assessed commitments from 2012, 89% for the two assessed at 2013 and 91% for the two assessed from 2015. Compliance fell again in 2016, with the globalgovernanceproject.org

G7 performance on macroeconomic policy, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina w a 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 n ana 3 Ev s kis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G l e 200 nea 6 St gle . Pe s 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%)

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%) *Blank space means no data

one assessed commitment scoring 63%, only to climb back up to 82% for the one assessed commitment from 2017. On the one assessed commitment from 2018, compliance reached 100%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS To improve compliance on its macroeconomic commitments, the G7 should choose specific features that catalyse higher compliance. For instance, the 2012 commitments assessed for compliance contained instructions

embedded in the text on how to fulfil the commitment, and achieved 100% compliance. Conversely, the 2004 commitment that ranked the lowest in compliance, at 61%, contained no precise guidance. In addition, increasing the number of finance ministers’ meetings prior to a summit has also been shown to increase the G7’s compliance with its macroeconomic commitments. Most top-performing years had, on average, a higher number of finance ministerial meetings in the lead-up to the summit.

To improve compliance on its macroeconomic commitments, the G7 should choose specific features that catalyse higher compliance.” globalgovernanceproject.org

JANE FILIPIUK Jane Filipiuk has been a member of both the G7 and G20 Research Groups based at the University of Toronto since 2015, and has held the positions of compliance analyst, lead analyst and compliance director, specialising in trade and macroeconomic policy. She has worked at the World Trade Organization and the National Bank of Canada, and is currently working at AlphaSights in London as an associate covering their private equity clients. @g7_rg : www.g7.utoronto.ca

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

When risk becomes reality

COVID-19 has taken a devastating human and economic toll. Now, the G7 must spare no ambition in leading an inclusive, sustainable and resilient recovery that addresses all current and future risk factors

Angel Gurría, former secretary-general, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 44

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n 2020, the world witnessed what happens when risks become reality. Confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide are now approaching 150 million with a devastating human toll of almost 3 million deaths. The measures needed to contain the virus have resulted in the largest annual fall in economic output since the Second World War, hitting the most vulnerable hardest, triggering large-scale job losses and driving a tragic rise in global poverty and extreme poverty. The near-term outlook remains uncertain, with the recovery depending on the speed and scope of the most ambitious vaccination effort in history and a continued fiscal effort to implement ambitious recovery plans. The latest Interim Economic Outlook published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development projects global gross domestic product to bounce back by 5.6% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. Nonetheless, output and incomes in many countries are projected to remain below

the level expected prior to the pandemic at the end of 2022. The UK’s G7 presidency has rightly made ‘building back better, greener, stronger and together’ a central theme. The OECD actively supports the G7 agenda to lead an inclusive and sustainable global recovery while strengthening resilience against future shocks. To build forward better, we must begin by learning the lessons of this crisis and previous ones. The OECD is working with the G7 to strengthen resilience, and has delivered a report for the G7 Resilience Panel on Fostering Economic Resilience in a World of Open and Integrated Markets. This work aims to promote coordinated actions to prevent the build-up of vulnerabilities, absorb shocks and rebound rapidly. Building resilience should focus on collective challenges, such as tackling climate change and shaping the human-centric and safe development of emerging technologies, and also fostering robust, responsive and shock-proof supply chains and promoting globalgovernanceproject.org

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150m

cases of COVID-19 worldwide and 3m deaths

323bn

allocated to green measures protecting against environmental harm

a sound global rulebook to underpin rules-based open markets. Resilience should also have a strong social dimension to address the vulnerabilities driven by inequalities, build back trust in the global economic system and foster public adherence to policy measures. CLIMATE CONSEQUENCES The UK has rightly put the climate crisis and biodiversity loss at the heart of the G7, building momentum towards the COP26 in Glasgow in November and a new global biodiversity framework at COP15 in Kunming in October. We urgently need to reduce our vulnerabilities to climate shocks through mitigation and to improve our adaptation as we face the consequences of climate change. We cannot afford to further lock in carbon-intensive technologies and continue inflicting environmental harm. Yet findings from the OECD’s green recovery database, which tracks the environmental impacts of recovery policies, reveal that although $323 billion globalgovernanceproject.org

has been allocated to green measures so far, this is outweighed by support to potentially environmentally harmful activities and it is still only around 2% of total COVID-19–related spending. Much more effort is needed. Policy guidance recently issued by the OECD to G7 leaders and to their finance and environment ministers supports the proposed G7 “Compact on Nature” and the ministers’ commitments, by providing actionable recommendations to incorporate nature-related considerations and risks into spending, investment, financial decision-making and trade. To drive the green recovery, OECD evidence points to the importance of putting a price on all sources of carbon emissions, eliminating environmentally harmful subsidies and resetting policy frameworks and financial incentives for the transition to net zero. We also need to harness emerging and digital technologies, as well as innovations and research in the field of science and technology, as key drivers of an inclusive and sustainable recovery and as sources of productivity growth and resilience. This requires the right enabling policy frameworks, addressing areas as diverse as privacy, security, safety, access, governance and competition. As new technologies are developed, it is essential to build upon democratic and human-centric values and approaches, ensuring they are embedded from the outset. Tools such as the OECD AI Principles are showing the way with regards to artificial intelligence. The United Kingdom has also shown leadership in ensuring a multi-stakeholder dialogue through the Future Tech Forum, to be held in the autumn o of 2021. Through such suc cooperation

The near-term outlook remains uncertain, with the recovery depending on the speed and scope of the most ambitious vaccination effort in history”

we need to share experiences and work collectively to address the vast cross-border flows of data generated by our hyper-connected societies, and encourage the interoperability of different data frameworks. The OECD is at the forefront of these policy discussions, providing evidence and expertise, as well as hosting platforms, such as the Global Partnership on AI, to advance cooperation, including in partnership with the G7 and G20. The G7 has shown its capacity as an incubator for high-impact multilateral initiatives, from tax to climate change to women’s empowerment. The G7 must now spare no ambition in leading an inclusive, sustainable and resilient recovery founded on the shared values that unite all G7 and OECD members.

ANGEL GURRÍA Angel Gurría served as secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from 2006 until 30 May 2021, following a distinguished career in public service in Mexico, ĜĹÏĬƚÚĜĹč ŞŅŸĜƋĜŅĹŸ ±Ÿ ĵĜĹĜŸƋåų Ņü üŅųåĜčĹ ±ý±ĜųŸ ±ĹÚ ĵĜĹĜŸƋåų Ņü ĀĹ±ĹÏå ±ĹÚ ŞƚÆĬĜÏ ÏųåÚĜƋţ Bå Ę±Ÿ Ş±ųƋĜÏĜŞ±ƋåÚ ĜĹ ƴ±ųĜŅƚŸ ĜĹƋåųĹ±ƋĜŅĹ±Ĭ ĹŅƋěüŅųěŞųŅĀƋ ÆŅÚĜåŸØ ĜĹÏĬƚÚĜĹč ƋĘå {ŅŞƚĬ±ƋĜŅĹ ŅƚĹÏĜĬ ±ĹÚ ƋĘå åĹƋåų üŅų :ĬŅÆ±Ĭ %åƴåĬŅŞĵåĹƋţ Bå ÏĘ±ĜųåÚ ƋĘå International Task Force on Financing Water for All and was a member of the United Nations Secretary-General’s Advisory Board for Water and Sanitation and of the World Economic Forum ŅĹ ±Ƌåų åÏƚųĜƋƼţ ƈÃj) %ƈ ƈ: oecd.org

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

GLOBAL COMMERCE

Interview with Robert Fauver, former US G7 sherpa

An economic balancing act Despite varying responses to the pandemic, global recovery prospects are bright – however, public debt and inflation must be handled tactfully to best support this outcome, Robert Fauver asserts How effective has the United States been in countering the recession caused by COVID-19? Our economy is bouncing back very strongly. This was not a classic recession brought on by a lack of demand or gross over-inflation. The level of demand always remained strong, but was unable to be used. So it has been more a question of when to allow people to be free than what governments are doing to support the economy. Much of the first US stimulus package still has not been passed on to the people. So far it has largely been money passed to businesses to keep people employed. We will have a very strong V-shaped recovery. We will beat growth expectations this year, and we could have a very strong 2022. But the Federal Reserve is continuing zero interest rates and flooding the market with cash. That, second only to excessive government spending, underlies the risk of inflation. If we pass the proposed $6 trillion new stimulus packages, you’ll have a huge injection of liquidity into the economy, with the danger of inflationary pressures, rising towards the end of 2021 and snuffing out the strength of the recovery in 2022. 46

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Will other G7 members benefit from the US situation? Psychologically it is the most important factor. Until production in Europe picks up, they won’t have the capacity for exports even though we might have the demand for their imports. So as we do better it will encourage Europeans to reopen. They are nowhere near along the path of regenerating hope that we are. How effective are Japan’s efforts? Japan’s horrendous problems have been caused by three factors: first, because of the Olympics, they withheld every effort to publicise their domestic COVID-19 challenges. Second, given the Japanese view of illness, it is part of their culture not to discuss their health. Third, the government has been confused about what to do and did not secure vaccines early enough. They are slowly getting started. They will lose a tonne of money on the Olympics, which will be a huge overhang on all of the tourism business. How are Europe’s economic prospects and policies? I am perhaps an outlier. I don’t think Europe will have the recovery in 2021 that was forecast by the International Monetary Fund. Europe will be lucky to see 2% growth this year. The Europeans are behind the curve in securing the vaccines that will allow them to reopen their economies. Tourism and business travel have come to a standstill. Their policies on the macroeconomic side have been okay. How long they hold their zero interest rates, we have yet to see. There will be some pressure, at least in Germany, to return to a firm monetary policy as inflation picks up from the commodity sector. globalgovernanceproject.org

If governments are over-optimistic, it will shake markets. So G7 leaders have a difficult act to balance urgently needed optimism with long-term ﬁscal responsibility” And the United Kingdom? They have done better than expected. The Brits have done a superb job with vaccines. They are now pretty much reopened with some constraints, but further ahead by months. Their macroeconomic policies have been okay. I expect this year will be better than normal and next year above normal. Canada? I expect around 5% growth this year and next. Canada will benefit from the US recovery, on energy and cross-border business. Lumber is skyrocketing so Western Canada will see huge increases in income. There have been some vaccine distribution issues, but I have no issue with Canada’s macroeconomic policies. Are G7 members’ current fiscal and monetary policies the proper one? No. We’ve flooded markets with liquidity in excess of what makes long-term sense. Most of the world has had zero interest rates for a significant time, pre-pandemic. Central banks’ build-up of assets from purchasing bonds and paper is phenomenal. Selling that back into markets will have major effects. We have run far looser for longer than is healthy. So we should worry about rising inflation and interest rates? For the first time since World War II, US federal debt is higher than gross domestic product. I’m a huge critic of large national debt. After the 2008 financial crisis we took to task our European friends who got out of line with their debt-to-GDP ratios. US national debt could crowd out spending. Rising interest rates will help recoveries in general, because we need a positive yield curve, which has globalgovernanceproject.org

been relatively flat. A positive yield curve with longer term rates at 4% or 5% would strengthen long-term recovery, though with short-term dislocation effects. But raising interest rates by 1% on $20 trillion of debt has a huge effect on annual debt servicing costs. This will crowd out other spending unless you raise taxes, and in a recovery phase, raising taxes does not seem appropriate. What should G7 leaders at Cornwall do to steer the recovery on to the optimal path? They need to be cheerleaders. Many economies, including most G7 members, need positive, realistic encouragement. Building business and consumer confidence is important at this stage. If governments are over-optimistic, it will shake markets. So they have a difficult act to balance urgently needed optimism with long-term fiscal responsibility.

ROBERT FAUVER Robert Fauver is president of Fauver Associates, LLC. He spent 32 years as a career public servant in the United States working in the Treasury, State Department, White House and National Intelligence Council. He was President Bill Clinton’s sherpa for the G7 summits of 1993 and 1994 and special assistant to the president for national security. He designed trade penalties for India and Pakistan following their testing of nuclear weapons and negotiated the yen-dollar negotiations that led to the beginning of liberalisation and ĜĹƋåųĹ±ƋĜŅĹ±ĬĜŸ±ƋĜŅĹ Ņü ŅĩƼŅűŸ ĀĹ±ĹÏĜ±Ĭ markets.

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Support forr sustainable standards The importance of setting global standards for sustainability reporting cannot be overemphasised, and although the world is well positioned to implement such standards, strong governmental support must be the driving force Robert Eccles, visiting professor of management practice at the Said Business School, University of Oxford

n 30 September 2020 the IFRS Foundation Trustees published a Consultation Paper on Sustainability bil Reporting. It proposed that the foundation establish a Sustainability Standards ndards Board that would sit alongside the International Accounting Standards Board. Just as the IASB had established International Financial Reporting Standards used by all major countries in the world (except the United States, which uses US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles established by the Financial Accounting Standards Board), the SSB would set standards for sustainability reporting. These standards would have the same degree of rigour, comparability and governmental support as those for financial reporting. To date, sustainability reporting has been a confusing array of well-meaning non-governmental organisations working to establish frameworks and standards for sustainability reporting and with almost no governmental support. The trustees received 577 comment letters and overwhelming support for this idea, including one I submitted with my Oxford colleague Richard Barker. In March, the trustees announced the strategic direction and next steps for establishing the SSB. A working group was formed, composed of the Value Reporting Foundation (the pending merger of the International Integrated Reporting Council and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board), the Climate Disclosure Standards Board and the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum. This group would provide recommendations,

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

including further developing those made by the Task Force on Financially Related Climate Disclosures, to set standards for climate-related reporting and other sustainability topics. The trustees plan to formally launch the SSB at the United Nations Glasgow climate conference in November. For the SSB to be a truly global standard setter it will need global governmental support. Indications here are positive. The International Organization of Securities Commissions has pronounced strong support. Also key is the response from Europe and the US. The European Financial Reporting Advisory Group’s Project Task Force has issued its final report to prepare for “the elaboration of possible EU non-financial reporting standards in a revised EU Non-Financial Reporting Directive”. The European Union has not yet indicated whether it will support the SSB or establish its own set. It plans to announce its standards in April 2022, so a decision needs to be made soon. It would be a shame, and potentially fatal to the SSB, should the EU decide to go its own way. POSITIVE RHETORIC The preliminary rhetoric from the US is positive. However, compared to the EU, at the governmental level the US is a very new player in the game, and this is only possible thanks to the Biden administration. globalgovernanceproject.org

Will establishing these standards be difficult? Of course. But the same was true when ﬁnancial accounting standards and reporting requirements were ﬁrst developed” Several regulatory l t and d perhaps h legislative l i l ti iissues must be sorted on a topic that is more ideological than rational in that deeply polarised country. With strong support from the EU, US and major Asian countries such as China and Japan, the world can have a global set of standards for sustainability reporting. The importance of this cannot be overemphasised. Imagine a world without mandated standards for financial reporting – we would not have the deep and liquid capital markets we have today. But these capital markets are imperfect from a sustainable development perspective. Changing this requires information on sustainability performance that can be incorporated into capital allocation decisions by companies and investors. This information is a necessary, although certainly not sufficient, condition for creating an environmentally sound and socially just world. Will establishing these standards be difficult? Of course. But the same was true when financial accounting standards and reporting requirements were first developed. Views will vary on which environmental and social issues should be covered by the SSB, and on how best to measure and report on a particular topic. Standards are social constructs, not something derived from the laws of physics. They are a social consensus about the metric that will be used to inform decision-making. Yes, they should globalgovernanceproject.org

ROBERT G ECCLES Robert G Eccles is a leading authority on corporate purpose and the integration of environmental, social and governance factors in resource allocation decisions by companies and investors. He is also the world’s foremost academic expert on integrated reporting. Previously a professor at the Harvard Business School, he is currently a visiting professor of management practice at the Said Business School, University of Oxford.

be as accurate as possible, but often there will be no definitive ‘right’ answer. What is important is that there is a reasonable answer that is used by everyone. The issue of standards for sustainability reporting is both arcane and mundane and yet politically charged. For these standards to come into existence and be used by companies, investors, governments and other stakeholders requires strong governmental support. I urge the G7 to make supporting them one of its priorities. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

G7 performance on

trade

CONCLUSIONS Trade has been addressed in G7 documents at every summit, with an average 1,019 words or 15% of words per summit. G7 leaders have consistently supported free, open and fair trade. Although they traditionally prioritised the multilateral trading system, recent summits focused on WTO reform, as trust in its effectiveness eroded. From 1975 to 1979, the portion of words on trade peaked at 45% in 1979. The most words on trade came in 2009 with 3,122, although that was only 10% of the total. Since 2017, the portion declined to its lowest levels ever, with only 2% in 2017 and 1% in 2018, with US president Donald Trump there. COMMITMENTS From 1975 to 2020, G7 summits made 345 public, collective, precise, politically binding commitments on trade. They account for 6% of all summit commitments. The highest number of trade commitments was 24 at Lough Erne in 2013, followed by 21 at London in 1977, when the percentage of trade commitments peaked at 38%. From 2013 to 2017 G7 summits produced commitments in the double digits, spurring trade liberalisation. The number fell to five each in 2018 and 2019, as the United States opposed anti-protectionist promises in the communiqués. The emergency virtual summit on 16 March 2020 included three commitments on trade.

Trade commitment compliance is well below average, but several steps can be taken at the summit that correlate with better uptake, thereby helping to promote stronger global exports and imports

he 2021 G7 Cornwall Summit is a badly needed beacon of hope for a return to some level of normalcy as the G7 faces health, economic, social and environmental challenges of unprecedented proportions. It is the first regular post-Brexit summit hosted by the UK, which chose to make free and fair trade a priority. With COVID-19 vaccine protectionism surfacing, it is paramount that vaccine-producing countries practise fair trade with this essential good. Trade is also acquiring much wider scope, with health, climate, gender and digital dynamics pushing the G7, other countries and the World Trade Organization to reform. The appointment of the new WTO director-general, its first woman and first African leader, brings much hope. The G7 and the world must keep trade channels open and secure, and ensure trade is more fair, inclusive, sustainable and responsive to the needs of all. 50

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Maria Marchyshyn, lead researcher on trade, G7 Research Group

COMPLIANCE Compliance with these 345 trade commitments averaged 65%, for the 45 assessed for G7 members’ compliance by the G7 Research Group. This is well below the overall 76% average for all subjects. However, between 2004 and 2020, compliance rose to average 74%. The highest compliance of 100% came with two commitments made at the 2000 summit, showing strong support for the WTO and the multilateral trading system. The lowest compliance came with commitments made in 1983 at 50% and in 2009 at 53%. By member, the European Union’s compliance led at 83%, followed by Canada at 76% and the United Kingdom at 74%. Then came Germany at 73%, Japan at 71%. The US had 59% and France only 48%. CORRECTIONS This low compliance may be corrected in several ways. First, the more trade commitments G7 leaders make, the better globalgovernanceproject.org

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G20 performance on trade, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina w a 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 n ana 3 Ev skis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G l e 200 nea 6 St gle . Pe s 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%)

they comply with them. The 10 summits with the highest trade compliance, averaging 84%, produced 84 trade commitments. In sharp contrast, the 10 lowest averaged 36% compliance and made 56 trade commitments. The higher complying years made on average two more commitments per summit than the lowest complying ones. Second, holding a trade ministerial historically has decreased compliance with the trade commitments that year’s summit made. Between 1982 and 1999, when the trade ministers of the US, Japan, Canada and the EU met annually, G7 trade compliance averaged 38%, much lower than the 70% average for years with no such meetings. Yet holding a trade ministerial among all eight members may address issues not discussed by the leaders and may aid with implementation of commitments, especially when trade connects to several other subjects under all G7 members’ sovereign control. The UK has organised two such trade ministers’ meetings in the lead-up to the Cornwall Summit. Third, commitments that refer to the WTO have higher compliance, at 73%, globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%)

MARIA MARCHYSHYN Maria Marchyshyn is the lead researcher on trade with the G7 and G20 Research Groups and the BRICS Research Group, based at the University of Toronto. Her work focuses on macroeconomic issues, including international trade and finance and topics regarding the European Union. She currently sits on the Trade and Gender Advisory Group for Global Affairs Canada and also served as vice-president of finance on the board of directors of the Organization of Women in International Trade for five years until 2018 and is currently a co-chair of their Trade Policy Committee. She is also involved with a number of organizations, including the UN Association of Canada and previously worked as a researcher at the European Parliament with the Committee on International Trade in Brussels and in the financial sector. @MariaMarch31 : www.g7.utoronto.ca

than those that do not, which have only 61%. Fourth, commitments with a one-year timeline coincide with increased compliance, averaging 74%, while including a multi-year timeline decreases compliance by 7%. These findings suggest that to improve compliance with their trade commitments at Cornwall, G7 leaders should produce

more trade commitments, refer to the WTO, include a one-year timetable, and avoid multi-year timetables. Future presidencies should continue to hold trade ministerial meetings among all G7 members. Global recovery needs strong international trade and the G7 leaders should promote fair and free trade to foster a greener, more prosperous future for all. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

GLOBAL COMMERCE

The WTO, trade and the COVID-19 recovery Removing trade barriers, export restrictions and supply-chain obstacles will support the global vaccination effort, and in turn bolster economic recovery

hen this year is over, what story will we tell about 2021? Many of us, including me, started the year hopeful as we began to see clearer pathways out of the pandemic. Now half the year through, the G7 summit is an opportune time to reflect on the optimism with which the world ushered in the new year and the work that remains. Global cooperation on trade will be important to help us get there. Recovery from COVID-19 and resilience against future pandemics is one of the United Kingdom’s priorities for its G7 presidency. It can only be truly achieved when all people in all countries have access to vaccines. As of 4 May, 1.048 billion vaccine doses had been administered, with up to half of the population in some of the richest countries receiving at least one dose. Worryingly, in lower-income countries, including very populous ones, vaccination rates were under 1%. That gap is stark. If left unaddressed, it would be unjust, economically dysfunctional and a threat to health and prosperity even in fully vaccinated countries. In light of this, discussions with World Trade Organization members and other stakeholders have been finding trade solutions. In meetings of the WTO TRIPS Council, my bilateral discussions and virtual events engaging the private sector, there has been an emphasis on collaboration and innovation to achieve

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Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general, World Trade Organization

swift, meaningful results for vaccine equity. A WTO-organised meeting of government ministers, vaccine manufacturers and civil society in April, for example, made more apparent how trade concerns were at the heart of the complexities of scaling up vaccine manufacturing and distribution. One manufacturer’s supply chain, for example, comprises 280 components manufactured at 86 sites in 19 countries. Cutting off trade or restricting the supply chain would make it harder, if not impossible, to produce more vaccines. REMOVING RESTRICTIONS These discussions are supported by the WTO’s continued monitoring of trade barriers. Since the pandemic's outbreak, the WTO has recorded as many as 109 pandemic-related export restrictions on medical products or food, by nearly 90 WTO members and observers. The number of export restrictions has dropped to 51, from 62 members and observers. This is the right direction, but it is not enough. It is more critical than ever for WTO members to roll back export restrictions and supply chain barriers. Vaccine manufacturers, for their part, should scale up production capacity in more sites, providing knowhow and technology transfer, and take steps towards longer-term investment. Governments, including those of G7 members, must continue to use the WTO to resolve these issues and foster the collaboration needed to meet the urgent demand for vaccines and other medical products. Increasing access to vaccines would, in turn, boost growth and trade. This is vital if we are to secure prosperity, another key G7 priority for 2021. WTO economists estimate that a faster-thanexpected global vaccine roll-out would add over two percentage points to the projected 8% rebound in merchandise trade volumes projected for 2021, after last year’s 5.3% contraction. More broadly, there is unfinished work in updating the WTO rule book to unleash the full potential of growth drivers currently bogged down by ineffective or outdated regulation. Negotiations among some WTO members on facilitating investment, removing regulatory red tape in services trade, and ensuring free and fair e-commerce are promising. There are also ongoing discussions at the WTO on increasing the participation globalgovernanceproject.org

In lower-income countries, including very populous ones, vaccination rates were under 1%. That gap is stark. If left unaddressed, it would be unjust, economically dysfunctional and a threat to health and prosperity even in fully vaccinated countries”

of women and small businesses in international trade. These initiatives will need to attract more support to secure meaningful outcomes at the WTO’s 12th ministerial conference later this year. The recovery narrative would not be complete without acknowledging

A faster-than-expected global vaccine roll-out could add over two percentage points to 2021's projected 8% rebound in merchandise trade volume

NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is an economist and international development expert with over 30 years of experience. She has chaired the board of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the African Risk Capacity and co-chaired the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. She was appointed a COVID-19 special envoy for both the African Union and the World Health Organization. Dr Okonjo-Iweala served twice as Nigeria’s finance minister and spent 25 years at the World Bank, rising to the position of managing director. @NOIweala and @WTOi

globalgovernanceproject.org

the imperative to build back in a greener, more sustainable way. Global carbon dioxide emissions fell by 2.3 billion tonnes or 6.4% in 2020 during the pandemic. This is hardly tenable, however, in the aftermath without more ambitious climate action. At the WTO, climate-related restrictions on trade such as the sensitive issue of carbon border levies have drawn much attention, as have joint initiatives on trade and environmental sustainability and plastics pollution. All members, including G7 members, would do well to continue to make use of the organisation’s transparency mechanisms to bring the coordination and cooperation needed in designing and implementing environmental policies. Also, as the world looks ahead to COP26, only weeks before the WTO ministerial, members should consider reactivating and broadening trade negotiations on environmental goods and services. The overdue agreement to curb harmful fisheries subsidies, furthermore, would be a swift win for the health of our oceans and not least for the WTO’s credibility. The G7’s new dedicated trade track of preparatory work affirms the important role the WTO must play in the story of growth and recovery post COVID-19. There is some time yet to honour the hope for 2021. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

GLOBAL COMMERCE

Realising tourism’s power as a recovery tool

Private and public sector coordination will be essential for restoring confidence in travel, which will in turn bolster economic growth and people’s livelihoods

F Zurab Pololikashvili, secretary general, United Nations World Tourism Organization

or countries and communities at every stage of development, the pandemic has brought home the essential relevance of tourism. Data from the World Tourism Organization show that international tourist arrivals declined by 73% last year, bringing the number of tourists travelling around the world back to levels last seen 30 years ago. The introduction of travel restrictions and an unprecedented fall in consumer demand and confidence wiped out three decades of near-continuous growth. And the impacts have been felt way beyond the tourism

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

sector itself. In the G7 economies alone, international tourist arrivals fell by 70%, leading to estimated losses of $400 billion in export revenues. UNWTO estimates over 100 million tourism jobs have been lost or put at risk by the pandemic. The crisis has made clear tourism’s symbiotic relationship with its wider society and indeed with what makes us human. STRONGER TOGETHER To thrive, the tourism sector relies on culture, nature and person-to-person

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interactions. In turn, tourism is an unrivalled pillar for development, investment and sustainable growth, supporting millions of jobs, providing opportunities for young people, women and vulnerable populations, and generating funds for the conservation of wildlife and habitats. Tourism promotes and preserves heritage and fosters solidarity and understanding among peoples. The responsible restart of international travel is, therefore, essential on many levels. As the United Nations’ specialised agency for tourism, UNWTO has led the sector’s response to an unprecedented crisis. We brought together governments, destinations, the private sector and international organisations with a coordinated plan of action. By speaking with one voice, tourism and its businesses and workers gained unprecedented economic and political support, including from the G7 members. The restart of tourism must similarly be based on coordination, both between the public and private sectors and between countries. One immediate priority is restoring confidence in international travel. While there is clearly pent-up demand for travel, ongoing uncertainty over restrictions and regulations keeps people at home and business lingering. The development of common risk assessment frameworks as well as coordinated measures are essential to restart travel for the benefit of all. The vaccination roll-out offers opportunities to advance solutions such as the European Union Green Passport, an example of joined-up thinking that could be replicated in other global regions. Destinations and countries also need to help tourists make informed decisions. UNWTO has partnered with the International Aviation Transport Association, the

globalgovernanceproject.org

ZURAB POLOLIKASHVILI Zurab Pololikashvili has been secretary-general of the World Tourism Organization since 2018. He was previously Georgia’s ambassador to Spain, Andorra, Algeria and Morocco and its permanent representative to the UNWTO up to December 2017. He has also served as Georgia’s minister of economic development and deputy foreign minister, among other posts, and has a background in the private sector in the financial and business sectors. ƈÃŝńīńīěĨ°ŷėƲěīěƈ ƈ: unwto.org

global body for civil aviation, to provide comprehensive and up-to-date information on the restrictions and requirements of airlines and destinations, building trust and restoring confidence. UNWTO is also finalising a landmark International Code for the Protection of Tourists, again with the aim of restoring trust in travel. In addition, UNWTO is working to ensure that businesses adapt and survive this crisis long enough to welcome tourists back. The sudden halt of tourism cash flow have required both governments and international organisations take steps to ensure liquidity, support adaptation to new challenges and secure vital financing for enterprises at risk. UNWTO is working closely with the Inter-American Development Bank on harmonised safety protocols and with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to support the sector in several priority states. It has also stepped up investment in tourism’s most important resource – people. From expanding online education opportunities to connecting tourism workers with employers through our UNWTO Jobs Factory, we want to

73% 100M

decline in tourist arrivals in 2020

tourism sector jobs lost or at risk

give everyone a chance to have a stake in tourism’s future. At the same time, by identifying the sector’s brightest entrepreneurs and start-ups, supporting talent wherever it is found we can guarantee that our work today will have an impact in the future. LEADING BY EXAMPLE As the world’s biggest economies collectively, the G7 has the opportunity – indeed, it has a responsibility – to lead by example in safely restarting tourism. Given the sector’s proven ability to drive recovery, such support would be an investment that would deliver significant dividends in the months and years ahead. Again, we have been through a year like no other, not just for tourism but for every economic sector and for our societies. But this crisis is also an opportunity to rethink and recalibrate. The location of this G7 meeting, in the English county of Cornwall, is most fitting. For many years, Cornwall has been a leading tourism destination, which has created jobs and supported businesses. Many are now eagerly waiting for the restart of tourism – their livelihoods depend on it. At the same time, the growth of tourism has brought some challenges, not least its impact on local communities. This makes clear our duty to place responsibility and sustainability at the heart of tourism’s restart and to ensure that, as we do grow back, the benefits are enjoyed widely and fairly. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

Cognizant

The work ahead: digital ﬁrst, to last

e hold these digital truths to be self-evident Since 2016, the NASDAQ index has tripled; by contrast, the S&P 500 is up by over 100%. Digital has clearly won on the only score sheets that really matter. Organisations, and countries, that rode the wave have done well, while those that didn’t fell behind. Today, digital is no longer a nice-to-have, an interesting adjunct to your main area of operation. A fully developed, sophisticated and hyper-scale digital platform is the only means to ensure any relevance and future in the next decade. As 2020 began, this truth was obvious to some, but not all; and as we reach summer 2021, it’s completely self-evident. COVID-19 has exposed the pre-existing condition of many organisations around the world: that they were pre-digital enterprises. Not only

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

As enterprises around the world attempt to chart a course for the post-COVID environment, one thing is clear. Digital competency is the primary competency – for individuals and organisations – moving forward.

Ben Pring, Co-Founder, Cognizant’s Centre for the Future of Work

were they unfit for purpose in the modern world, but also holding on (just) through custom and inertia – their own, customers’ and citizens’. As the world migrated online (in many aspects, permanently) during spring and summer last year, those that had laid the foundations for a fully digital future saw these investments pay off. Those who had hemmed and hawed saw their indecision become final. As organisations and countries attempt to chart a course for the post-COVID environment, one thing is clear: digital competency is the primary competency for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The next few years will see wholescale transformation of the major pillars of society – how we learn, how we govern ourselves, how we heal, how we ensure financial security, how we protect ourselves, how we spread opportunity. globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

Cognizant Consequently, there are five key themes that leaders of any stripe should be paying attention to: 1.Software isn’t just eating the world; it’s already doing the washing up. This famous quote from Marc Andreessen is now 10 years old – and he’s still right. Many organisations understand the reality of this statement, but there are still holdouts – in surprisingly large numbers – who think if they hunker down for long enough the digital wars will end, and they will be able to emerge from their hiding places and go back to business as usual.

COVID-19 has exposed the pre-existing condition of many organisations around the world: that they were pre-digital enterprises” growing discussion of the role “purpose” should play in business activity and the need to transition from “shareholder” to “stakeholder” capitalism. More and more organisations have the view that they need to tune into demands for greater inclusion in the workplace, and prevent powerful companies from using technology to consolidate the rewards of work into the hands of a few.

2.Artiﬁcial intelligence (as the engine) and data (as the fuel) are propelling enterprises to the next stage of their digital journey. Amid all the hype, AI is the great story of our time. Ranked by respondents in a recent Cognizant survey as having the greatest impact on work over the next three years, AI mastery is pivotal to becoming a modern organisation. By 2023, those that have acquired deep skills and expertise in deploying AI into mission-critical areas of their operations will be well positioned, while those still struggling to make meaningful progress will be also-rans. 3.Leaders are redesigning business processes for human/machine teaming, taking on challenges that each could not do effectively alone. While many still fear AI and automation as “job destroyers”, a more nuanced (and accurate) view has emerged – that this is the route to achieving higher level human performance. The business leaders that we work with see AI as human augmentation rather than substitution, and that humans and machines combined will reach new value thresholds, unobtainable in isolation. By making technology a partner in work, organisations can fundamentally reshape how the business operates, from customer and employee experience to risk management, brand reputation, sales and innovation. 4.A simplistic view of employees as mere labour “resources” is giving way to a richer, more complex vision of their value. One of the most significant developments in business and society in the lead up to the pandemic, and since, has been the globalgovernanceproject.org

BEN PRING Ben Pring co-founded and leads Cognizant’s Center for the Future of Work. He is a co-author of the bestselling books, What to Do When Machines Do Everything and Code Halos. Ben sits on the advisory board of the Labor and Work Life programme at Harvard Law School. In 2018 Ben was a Bilderberg Meeting participant. He joined Cognizant in 2011, from Gartner, where he spent 15 years researching and advising on areas such as cloud computing. Based in Boston since 2000, Ben graduated with a degree in philosophy from Manchester University in the UK, where he grew up.

5.We are entering a new stage in our relationship with technology, with a tempered appreciation of its impact on work and society. A decade into the era of digital transformation, leading organisations (both private and public) voice a greater appreciation for the promise and peril inherent in modern technology. Fewer think that killer robots will overwhelm mankind, and fewer view digital technology as a silver bullet. Rather, leaders more fully understand not only the power of the tools in their hands, but also the hard work ahead for those hands. People are very much in the loop – those who are skilled and qualified to participate in the next evolutionary stage of our economies and our world. The era of “digital as theory” is over, and we are now deep in the era of “digital in practice”. It is now patently clear that for the core tools and techniques of digital transformation, some of which are now 20 years old (i.e., cloud computing), it’s irrelevant to debate their relevance. The work ahead is clear; fine-tuning comes next, which will provide an incredible opportunity for countries and organisations in the post-pandemic era.

@Cognizant : cognizant.com Bharat Masrani

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

GLOBAL COMMERCE

Suspending vaccine intellectual property is not the answer to alleviating bottlenecks – there are other ways the G7 can contribute

Simon J Evenett, University of St Gallen, Switzerland

Vaccine supply chains: groundhog day 58

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

globalgovernanceproject.org

ill we ever learn? In the second quarter of 2020, officials publicly despaired over shortages of masks, other personal protective equipment and medical equipment such as ventilators. Officials not known for their expertise in industrial organisation and international trade started traducing cross-border supply chains. Fortunately, the private sector was not deterred by either this name calling or by the temporary lapse of judgement by those governments that imposed export curbs. By May 2020 huge amounts of medical kit became available. This year officials are repeating the same mistake. At the very time when the private sector is dramatically expanding production capacity, officials are publicly fretting about shortages of COVID-19 vaccines. Airfinity, the leading independent consultancy working in this area, estimated on 23 April 2021 that by the end of this year a total of 9.9 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines would have been produced. That compares to the 1.4 billion doses manufactured already this year. Airfinity reckons more COVID-19 vaccine will be manufactured in May and June this year than in the first four months of the year. The mismatch between current headlines and the private sector scale-up is redolent of last year. Undeterred by these inconvenient statistics, some resourceful non-governmental organisations are capitalising on the long-standing distrust of the pharma companies and are calling for a suspension of key World Trade Organization rules on intellectual property. This is despite that fact that not a single independent expert on vaccine production has pointed to intellectual property as the bottleneck. These organisations overlook the fact that, as of the end of April 2021, a total of 275 vaccine production agreements have been signed worldwide – 214 involving some form of collaboration between companies. Moreover, there already exist significant carve-outs from WTO rules on intellectual property for the least developed countries – so nothing stops these countries taking action now. Sadly, energy is being wasted fighting yesterday’s battles about intellectual property. GLOBAL SOLIDARITY Given the inoculation programmes undertaken by G7 governments, and the vaccine production ramp-up underway, very soon officials will not be discussing vaccine shortages – they will be discussing what to do with the huge amounts of surplus vaccines ordered. There is a major opportunity here for the democratic governments of the G7 to demonstrate solidarity with the rest of the world, especially the developing world. G7 governments need a game plan to ensure that this opportunity for successful vaccine diplomacy is not squandered. There is the inevitable temptation to play favourites but it should be resisted, so salient is this matter. After helping neighbouring countries, G7 members should share their surplus vaccines with neutral international organisations, such as the COVAX facility, so long as those organisations globalgovernanceproject.org

There is a major opportunity here for the democratic governments of the G7 to demonstrate solidarity with the rest of the world, especially the developing world”

As of the end of April 2021, a total of

275 vaccine production agreements have been signed worldwide – 214 involving some form of collaboration between companies

have transparent, scientifically based global distribution plans. Showing solidarity in this way is also smart public health policy. As more and more countries’ adult populations reach herd immunity, the likelihood of further variants diminishes. Every time a new variant is found, the question of whether existing vaccines offer protection against it arises. This erodes public confidence in the existing vaccines and may result in greater vaccine hesitancy, which in turn increases the risk of further variants emerging. G7 governments and their vaccine manufacturers are well placed to break this vicious cycle. But this is not enough. Until herd immunity is achieved worldwide, new waves of COVID-19 should be expected. For this reason, G7 members should continue to over-order certain medical kit (masks, oxygen and the like) and stockpile it. G7 members could commit to place such orders for five years, signalling to the private sector that investments in production capacity along relevant supply chains are both merited and less risky. More importantly, G7 members should commit to deploy those stockpiles to whatever country around the world gets hit by a new wave. It may be too much for the G7 to build a common stockpile, but that does not stop individual G7 members from teaming up with other governments to pool resources. The downside from doing too little exceeds the risks of doing too much.

SIMON J EVENETT Simon J Evenett is an economics professor at the University of St Gallen, Switzerland. He is also the founder of the St Gallen Endowment for Prosperity Through Trade, the institutional home of the independent Global Trade Alert and Digital Policy Alert. Since the pandemic began he has written extensively on supply chain disruption in essential goods sectors. @SimonEvenett : globaltradealert.org

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL

G7 performance on

development Compliance on development commitments falls slightly below average, but effective compliance-enhancing tools are available – including one-year timetables and referring to G7 finance ministers

Sonja Dobson, senior researcher, G7 Research Group

he United Kingdom’s policy priorities for its Cornwall Summit include focusing on support for the poorest countries, democracy, girls’ education, food security, health and sustainable development financing. CONCLUSIONS Since their first summit in 1975, G7 leaders have dedicated an average of 17% of their communiqués to development, beginning with 14.5% at the 1975 Rambouillet Summit. The amount fluctuated between 3.3% in 1984 and 22.1% in 1994 before an all-time high of 55.9% at the Kananaskis Summit in 2002. It plummeted to 4.1% in 2003, sunk to 1.1% at Sea Island in 2004, and then fluctuated heavily. The Virtual Summit in March 2020, in response to the COVID-19 crisis, had 2%.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

COMMITMENTS G7 leaders have made 704 development commitments since 1975, more than any other subject, for an average of 16 per summit. Here, too, numbers have fluctuated. In 1975, G7 leaders made four (29%) commitments on development, then only one (14%) in 1976. This jumped to 13 (45%) in 1977 and varied between three and nine commitments before 1984, when 13 (42%) were made. The 1976 and 1991 summits were the only ones to make one on development. The summits from 1978 to 1995 averaged seven or 17% of total commitments each. In 1996 the number rose to 23 (18%), declined in 1997 to 19 (13%) and to seven (10%) in 1998. It rose slightly to eight (17%) in 1999 and 19 (18%) in 2000 before decreasing to 11 (19%) in 2001. In 2002, it jumped to 34 (18%), fell to 24 (12%) in 2003, and rose to a peak of 53 (22%) in 2004. The 2005 Gleneagles Summit made 21 (10%) commitments on development and the 2013 Lough Erne Summit made 10 (5%). Between 2005 and 2013, the number of development commitments averaged 28, which was only 13% of total commitments. In 2014, 22 (16%) commitments were made, increasing to 43 (11%) in 2015, then decreasing to 23 (7%) in 2016. Only two (1%) commitments came in 2017. The Charlevoix Summit in 2018 made 32 (10%). The 2019 Biarritz Summit made eight (11%), and the 2020 Virtual Summit made none. COMPLIANCE The G7 Research Group has assessed 58 development commitments for members’ globalgovernanceproject.org

compliance since 1996. They average 73% compliance, below the G7’s overall 76% average. The highest compliance on development was 95% with the 2006 commitments. The lowest was 40% with the 2011 commitments. Compliance started at only 50% for the 1996, 1997 and 1998 summits. It skyrocketed to 93% for the 1999 summit, before plummeting back to 50% for 2000. Compliance increased to 75% with the 2001 commitments, dipped to 55% for 2002, and stabilised at a higher level of 81% for 2003, 75% for 2004 and 85% for 2005. Compliance fluctuated significantly from 2006 to 2012, with the full range of highs and lows. The 2013 summit had 64%, rising to 88% in 2014, lowering to 75% in 2015, and steadying after 2016 at 82%, 88% for 2017, 93% for 2018 and 84% for 2019. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS One possible cause of compliance is the catalysts embedded in the commitment text. Complianceenhancing ones include a reference to the core development organisation of the World Bank; such commitments average 92% compliance. Commitments that refer to one-year timetables average 90% and those

that refer to G7 ministers, specifically finance ministers, average 87%. Additionally the 20 assessed commitments that specify regions or countries, such as Africa, Iraq or Syria, average 77%, slightly higher than the G7’s overall average compliance of 76%. The 38 commitments without this specification average lower compliance of 73%. By subject, the 18 commitments on debt relief average 76% compliance. This is higher than the 74% average for the 31 commitments on official development assistance. CONCLUSION At Cornwall, G7 leaders should make commitments that refer to the World Bank, have short timetables of a year or less, mention finance ministers, and relate to Africa and debt relief. More broadly, as part of the UK’s policy priorities on supporting the poorest countries and financing sustainable development, G7 leaders should commit to expand the timeframe and scope of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, as well as seek new, innovative and sustainable ODA mechanisms.

SONJA DOBSON Sonja Dobson is a senior researcher who has worked with the G7, G20 and BRICS Research Groups since 2015. She has served as a compliance director for all three groups. She ĘŅĬÚŸ ± ĵ±ŸƋåųűŸ Úåčųåå ĜĹ ÏŅĹāĜÏƋ studies and human rights from Utrecht University, and graduated from the University of Toronto with a bachelor of arts and science in African studies and political science. @SAT_Dobson : www.g7.utoronto.ca

G7 performance on development, 1975–2020 100

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Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%) 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

Interview with Achim Steiner, administrator, United Nations Development Programme

Committing to a green recovery Has COVID-19 hurt progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals? People have lost, or are losing, their limited assets to survive: 50% of the world’s population has no social protection. The economic impact of COVID-19 is as devastating as the health impact. Many least developed countries and small island developing states have exhausted their public finance reserves and their ability to borrow is severely compromised. The United Nations Development Programme projects that one billion people could be living in extreme poverty by 2030 – a quarter as a direct result of the pandemic – unless action is taken now. Much depends on whether the G7, the G20, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and private creditors come together so the required level of crisis management funding and stimulus packages emerge. People living in the world’s least developed countries would greatly benefit from this enhanced investment climate. If the DNA of a green recovery is inserted into stimulus packages, it will expand access to catalytic public financing that accelerates the implementation of the SDGs. Indeed, given that we’re now seeing some significant green recovery commitments, there are reasons to be positive about our ability to take the level of climate action we now need. If we maintain this momentum, this could help us to get closer to the Paris Agreement targets than previously anticipated. 62

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Achim Steiner explains how COVID-19 has disrupted the path to meeting the SDGs and what the G7 can do to support meeting them

Has this altered the path for reaching the SDGs? Addressing key areas such as poverty reduction, gender equality, electricity access and the clean energy transition have all been disrupted. The initial phases of the stimulus packages and government capital mobilisation understandably focused on responding to the COVID-19 crisis. Indeed, analysis by the United Nations Environment Programme and the Oxford University Economic Recovery Project points out that only 18% of announced recovery spending can be considered green to date. That is not a full transition towards a green recovery, but it is significant. There’s a danger that if the next recovery and stimulus packages still reflect crisis management, it will set back progress on the SDGs. The question is how countries can take advantage of these once-in-a-generation finance packages to drive transformational change in key areas such as renewable energy infrastructure or healthcare. This is a time of choices that will affect the well-being of people and the planet for generations to come. The SDGs represent a compass to guide us as we emerge from this crisis. Is it time to revise the SDGs? No. We spent years negotiating a global agenda that brings us together on the major risks to our common future. globalgovernanceproject.org

EMPOWERING FOR WOMEN DEVELOPMENT ALL The SDGs are an enabling, unifying framework that applies to every country. My greatest concern would be losing this tool for collective, synchronised action and unravelling these mutually reinforcing goals. They are precisely what we need right now to invest smartly and address climate change. They can also help us to make progress in, for instance, expanding access to clean energy – which in turn gives women access to clean cooking, which allows children to learn, and powers our industries and growing urban cities. The SDGs are holding us together at this challenging moment. This extraordinary set of goals is, as former UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said, a declaration of interdependence. How will the G7’s support help? The way out of this crisis is that either we do it together or none of us will do it alone. That includes financing for development, which has been inadequate to the point of risking both the recovery and the containment of the virus. The Debt Service Suspension Initiative provides some relief and the IMF and World Bank have taken important first steps. But half a dozen countries are in debt default, 72 face debt distress and a quarter of them are not even included in the DSSI. We must move from crisis management mode into investment mode. However, I don’t think we have passed the test in collectively mobilising financial support for developing countries in distress. On humanitarian funding, at a time when 80 million people are forcibly displaced worldwide, several countries have cut their aid. But optimism is the last thing you lose. So, I hope by the Cornwall Summit, we’ll have recognised we cannot turn our backs on the most vulnerable and marginalised – including people in crisis or conflict. And on climate change? All countries must raise their ambition

1bn

people could be living in extreme poverty by 2030 – 25% as a direct result of the pandemic globalgovernanceproject.org

The way out of this crisis is that either we do it together or none of us will do it alone”

ACHIM STEINER Achim Steiner became the administrator of the United Nations Development Programme in 2017. He is also the vice-chair of the UN Sustainable Development Group, which unites 40 entities of the UN system that work to support sustainable development. Prior to joining UNDP, he was director of the Oxford Martin School and professorial fellow of Balliol College, University of Oxford. Steiner led the United Nations Environment Programme (2006–2016) and was also director-general of the United Nations Office at Nairobi. He previously held other notable positions including director-general of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and secretary-general of the World Commission on Dams. ƈÃ ƊäěĸäŲƈ ƈ: undp.org

to align with where the science tells us we need to be. UNDP is currently supporting 118 countries to enhance their nationally determined contributions through our Climate Promise. This is the world’s largest offer of support for enhancing countries’ climate pledges. We’re tackling decarbonisation as a developmental reality. Through NDCs, we’re helping to eradicate poverty, close gaps in gender equality, and expand energy access, while boosting economic systems and restoring degraded lands – all at the same time. As we work towards the Glasgow climate conference, we are helping countries to significantly raise their ambitions, also a critical element of the SDGs. And it is vital for countries to believe in each other’s commitment, willingness and ability to move forward. What do you hope the leaders do at Cornwall to get the SDGs back on track? This is a moment of leadership. Had we acted early, we would not now be living with wealth determining access to vaccines. Indeed, it took a crisis to spur the world into action. There are lessons to be learned. The G7 leaders in Cornwall, despite differences and different realities at home, must provide a clear vision of what a greener, more sustainable world could look like. In doing so, we will not be blindly optimistic for the future – but optimistic in the ability of global leaders to change the future. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Fighting famine: how the global community can take action Famine threatens the lives of 34 million people and time is running out to act on what is an avoidable catastrophe. The G7 has a responsibility to be a catalyst for action

David Beasley, executive director, World Food Programme

globalgovernanceproject.org

PHOTO: © WFP/ARETE/FREDRIK LERNERYD

t is unthinkable in the 21st century that anyone should lose their life to famine – and yet this is exactly the fate that threatens to overwhelm 34 million people today. The window of opportunity to avoid this tragic reality is closing in fast and failure to act will leave an indelible stain on humanity. Consequently, when leaders of the G7 members gather in the United Kingdom for their first in-person summit in two years, their responsibility to lead the global effort to combat the clear and present danger of famine should be uppermost in their minds. The terrifying scale of the threat was revealed in May, when the World Food Programme and our partners published the 2021 Global Report on Food Crises. To put the 34 million total in context, it is only slightly less than the entire population of Canada. Just imagine standing by and watching an entire country starve to death. It is unconscionable. As well as identifying the number of people teetering on the brink of famine, the report also highlights the widespread nature of the peril. Nine countries each have at least one million people living in this desperate situation: Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Haiti, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, Venezuela and Yemen.

EMPOWERING FOR WOMEN DEVELOPMENT ALL The Central African Republic, Honduras, Uganda and Zimbabwe are each home to at least half a million people vulnerable to starvation. This analysis tells us that the world could soon bear witness to famines in multiple countries spanning three continents: a truly unprecedented catastrophe. It also lays bare another brutal truth, which is that starvation and famine are human-made. Almost all the countries in danger of slipping into famine are wracked by armed violence. Conflict drives hunger, and hunger drives conflict. Instability and violence combine with economic crisis to destroy the systems that produce, manage and distribute food to civilian populations. The result is widespread hunger, malnutrition and, in the worst cases, famine. I have witnessed the heart-breaking impact of this destructive cycle for myself, time after time. On recent visits to Yemen, the DRC and South Sudan, I met families and children who are starving because they are caught in the cross-fire. BREAKING THE CYCLE The link between hunger and conflict is beyond doubt – the question is how do we break it, once and for all? To succeed, we need a three-pronged approach. First, we need concerted action by the international community to end the rising number of conflicts around the world. The United Nations Security Council’s Resolution 2417 is an important step towards seeking political solutions. But now the international community needs to live up to the values it enshrines. The G7 summit is an opportunity for members to show political leadership here. Second, we have to make the right investments, at the right time. In the short term, $5 billion is urgently needed to stave off famine in multiple countries. It’s unacceptable in the modern age that 34 million people are one step away from starvation and death – the world has to act now. Longer term, we must also invest in health, education and sustainable livelihood programmes. They are the best way to offer vulnerable communities the chance to build resilience and protect themselves against future

Conflict drives hunger, and hunger drives conflict. Instability and violence combine with economic crisis to destroy the systems that produce, manage and distribute food to civilian populations”

DAVID BEASLEY David Beasley was appointed in 2017 the executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, which won the Nobel Peace Prize for 2020. In a public service career that spans four decades, he has worked across political, religious and ethnic lines to champion economic development, humanitarian assistance, education, and intercultural and interfaith cooperation for the most vulnerable people across the globe. He served as governor of the US state of South Carolina from 1995 to 1999. @wfpchief : wfp.org

globalgovernanceproject.org

food insecurity. It is critical to help lay the foundations to build greater stability and social cohesion. Third, we must work with governments to strengthen national frameworks to ensure that all communities, no matter who they are or where they live, have equal access to nutritious foods. This is fundamental to any successful strategy to reduce social tensions and promote peace. WFP and our partners stand ready to work with the G7 and all other countries to avert the famines now looming across the world. We have unrivalled deep-field presence, innovative tracking and analytical technologies, and a global logistics and supply chain to ensure life-saving assistance gets where it is needed most. We can mobilise rapid response teams to reach inaccessible communities, get front-line workers on the ground within hours, and target food and cash assistance to the people in greatest need anywhere. But we cannot do any of this life-saving, life-changing work unless our donors, who have been so generous in the past, come forward with the funds so urgently needed now. Famine has no place in the 21st century. In partnership with the G7 leaders, we still have a chance to banish it to the history books. But we have no more time to lose. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

South Africa, part of the Commonwealth, has been hit hard by the pandemic

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Leaving no economy behind The UK G7 presidency must show leadership on the challenges developing countries will face in a post–COVID-19 world Patricia Scotland QC, secretary-general of the Commonwealth

year, it is of our interconnectedness and dependence on each other – a fact devastatingly demonstrated by COVID-19 and its mutations, showing us that until everyone is safe, no one is safe. People are recognising that what is true for COVID-19 is also true for other pressing challenges whether economic, social or environmental. Around globalgovernanceproject.org

Pic: ivepointsix / Shutterstock.com

e are likely at the most significant inflection point of our lives. Like previous generations who have faced era-defining challenges, we know the world cannot, and indeed will not, be the same when we emerge from this long COVID-19 crisis. It is in this setting that the United Kingdom assumes the presidency of the G7 – a moment heavy with responsibility but also full of opportunity. Commonwealth member states are watching closely for signals of the UK’s agenda and focus. For a long time the UK has been a powerful voice in support of developing countries, leading the charge at previous G7 meetings on both the Millennium and the Sustainable Development Goals, by setting and meeting ambitious targets on official development assistance and advocating for greater support for the world’s poor and for small states. So why should the G7 again focus on the needs of developing countries, especially at a time of such vast global challenges? Because I believe that now more than ever it is in the enlightened self-interest of all G7 members to pay special attention to small and developing states. If there is one defining lesson of the past

EMPOWERING FOR WOMEN DEVELOPMENT ALL the world, the Commonwealth sees some key areas where action from the G7 could head off contagion and support a more sustainable future. These are equitable distribution of vaccines, climate change, debt sustainability and access to affordable finance. ECONOMIC SCARRING The World Health Organization is clear that the past few months have been the deadliest in the COVID-19 pandemic, with infections and deaths growing rapidly. But while developed countries such as the G7 members make significant progress on their vaccination programmes, smaller and developing states have been left behind. This not only leaves their populations unprotected, but also leaves them as potential breeding grounds for new more deadly or more infectious variants of the COVID-19 virus. And in the smaller and developing countries, the impact of low vaccination rates is more than just a health issue: it causes severe economic challenges. Industries such as tourism are the lifeblood of many small countries and without widespread vaccination their economies will almost certainly grind to a halt, leaving a trail of poverty, insecurity and possible institutional collapse. Avoiding this type of economic scarring requires increased global support for access to vaccines. In addition to the acute damage of the pandemic is the chronic long-term impact of climate change. This year the UK also chairs COP26, and while climate change is a global phenomenon and will affect all countries, it will not affect all countries alike. Some in the Commonwealth such as Kiribati already face an existential threat. They face specific and urgent climatic challenges, and we urge the G7 to support areas such as climate infrastructure, which small island countries desperately need but cannot afford. Other challenges revolve around debt sustainability and inadequate

People are recognising that what is true for COVID-19 is also true for other pressing challenges whether economic, social or environmental. Around the world, the Commonwealth sees some key areas where action from the G7 could head off contagion and support a more sustainable future”

PATRICIA SCOTLAND QC Ęå ĜčĘƋ BŅĹŅƚų±ÆĬå {±ƋųĜÏĜ± ÏŅƋĬ±ĹÚ } Ø ƵĘŅ ƋŅŅĩ ŅþÏå ±Ÿ ŸåÏųåƋ±ųƼěčåĹåų±Ĭ Ņü ƋĘå ŅĵĵŅĹƵå±ĬƋĘ ĜĹ ƖǈŎƅØ ŸåųƴåŸ ƋĘå Ăĉ čŅƴåųĹĵåĹƋŸ ±ĹÚ Ɩţĉ ÆĜĬĬĜŅĹ ŞåŅŞĬå Ņü ƋĘå ŅĵĵŅĹƵå±ĬƋĘţ ŅųĹ ĜĹ %ŅĵĜĹĜÏ± ±ĹÚ ± Ĭ±ƵƼåų ÆƼ ŞųŅüåŸŸĜŅĹØ ŸĘå ÆåÏ±ĵå ƋĘå ĀųŸƋ Ĭ±Ïĩ ±ĹÚ ƼŅƚĹčåŸƋ ƵŅĵ±Ĺ åƴåų ƋŅ Æå ±ŞŞŅĜĹƋåÚ }ƚååĹűŸ ŅƚĹŸåĬ ĜĹ ƋĘå ĹĜƋåÚ UĜĹčÚŅĵţ Ęå ĜŸ ƋĘå ŅĹĬƼ ƵŅĵ±Ĺ ŸĜĹÏå ƋĘå ŞŅŸƋ Ƶ±Ÿ Ïųå±ƋåÚ ĜĹ ŎƐŎĂ ƋŅ Æå ±ƋƋŅųĹåƼěčåĹåų±Ĭ üŅų )ĹčĬ±ĹÚ ±ĹÚ ±ĬåŸţ @PScotlandCSG : thecommonwealth.org

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access to affordable finance. Although debt burdens rose in the decade before the pandemic and have spiked recently due to unprecedented stimulus packages, this general global trend masks a critical issue for developing countries, with some seeing sharp and sustained increases in their debt burden. Rightly, the G20 has moved to provide liquidity support through its debt suspension initiative and support for debt-restructuring initiatives ring-fenced for low-income countries – but this support is restricted to those with low incomes. In fact, many small middle-income countries, which had little to no fiscal room to begin with, have been hit by vanishing income streams and are at the greatest risk of debt instability. It is these countries that the G7 and G20 should be more worried about as their defaults would affect advanced-country private creditors far more profoundly than low-income borrowing. Global uncertainty about our return to normal and the economic recovery mean that without swift external assistance at scale, many of these states could quickly revert to becoming low-income countries, marked by high poverty, youth unemployment and political disturbance. The G7 has a unique opportunity this year to respond rapidly on addressing these issues. The cost will be significant, but like vaccination programmes or lockdowns, far, far lower than the long-term costs and consequences of inaction. The United Kingdom leading as it does, the G7 and COP26 remain beacons of hope upon which the disadvantaged and small states rely. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 r is 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina wa 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 n ana 3 Ev s kis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G len 200 eag 6 St les . Pe 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

197 5 Ra

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

climate change

Compliance (%)

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

G7 performance on

Despite recent challenges in international cooperation, the G7’s climate compliance has improved – but much more than incremental action is needed to keep global temperatures below catastrophic levels

G7 performance on climate change, 1975–2020

100

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%)

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Brittaney Warren, director of policy analysis and lead researcher on climate change, G7 Research Group

he six years leading up to 2021 have been the hottest since the 21st century began, and 2021 will likely be just as hot. Many people and governments are implementing policies to reduce their emissions, with some success. However, to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, much more than incremental action is needed. Can the United Kingdom lead the G7 in raising members’ ambition for climate action at its Cornwall Summit?

BRITTANEY WARREN Brittaney Warren, MES, is director of policy analysis and lead researcher on climate change for the G7 Research Group, the G20 Research Group and the BRICS Research Group at the University of Toronto. She has published on the G20 and G7’s governance of climate change and the environment, including its links to health, and on accountability measures to improve summit performance. She holds a master’s degree in environmental studies from York University and a BA in international relations from the University of Toronto. @brittaneywarren : www.g7.utoronto.ca

CONCLUSIONS G7 summits up to 1979 dedicated none of their conclusions in their communiqués to climate change. This performance rose incrementally, averaging 1% per summit up to 1989 and 2% from 1990 to 2004. From 2005 to 2014, it jumped to 12%, and 13% from 2015 to 2019. The 2020 summit was cancelled, and the Virtual Summit on 16 March responded to the COVID-19 crisis without addressing climate change. Under the UK’s 2021 presidency, climate change took 12% of the communiqué issued at the Virtual Summit on 19 February. COMMITMENTS The trend for G7 climate change commitments partly mirrors that with the conclusions. Since 1985, the G7 has made 319 politically binding climate commitments, rising over time. Summits from 1979 to 1989 made a total of five commitments, averaging less than one per summit. From 1990 to 2004, the 42 commitments averaged three per summit. From 2005 to 2014 there were 221 commitments for 22 per summit on average. Summits between 2015 and 2019, made 51 commitments, averaging seven per summit. None were made in 2020. The 2021 Virtual Summit made three climate commitments. COMPLIANCE Members’ compliance with their climate commitments rose too, even between 2014 and 2019, when fewer commitments were made and tensions rose among the leaders. The G7 Research Group has assessed 92 climate commitments made from 1985 to 2019. Their 73% average compliance is slightly below the G7’s 76% average for 594 assessments across all subjects and years.Climate compliance up to 1989 averaged only 54%. It rose to 73% by 2004, to 75% by 2014 and to 80% by 2020. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS One possible cause of compliance is internal institutional support. Holding pre-summit environment ministerial meetings and creating an official level body for climate and the environment seem to raise compliance with leaders’ climate commitments. Over the 20 years with one meeting of environment ministers, climate compliance averaged 77%, compared to the 69% average for the 16 years globalgovernanceproject.org

12%

of the UK’s February 2021 communiqué focus on climate change

319 climate commitments made by the G7 since 1985

73%

average compliance on commitments

with no meeting. Years when an official level body was created had a 33% increased chance of higher compliance. A second cause is surrounding summit support. The G20’s compliance with its own climate commitments appears to affect G7 compliance, even when the content of the G7 and G20 commitments do not coincide. G7 climate commitments are 9% more likely to have higher compliance for each 10% increase in the G20’s average compliance in that same year. High-level UN climate summits also seem to help raise G7 climate compliance. A third cause is non-state actor engagement, in particular Indigenous peoples and cities. Summits with a reference to Indigenous peoples had 85% compliance with their climate commitments compared to 72% for those with no reference. Summits that referenced cities had 76% compared to the two summits with no references at 72%. A fourth cause is the specific language in the commitment, such as a reference to a past G7 summit (78% compliance), the Paris Agreement or United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (77%), or to the private sector (77%). Commitments with binding language averaged 75%, a one-year timetable averaged 74% and a quantifiable target averaged 73%. Catalysts that may constrain compliance include a multiyear timetable (72%), low binding language (72%) and references to civil society or a regional facility (50%) or least developed countries (45%). A fifth cause is synergy. The highest compliance came on climate commitments referring to the economy, markets and growth at 85% and natural disasters at 80%. Those on transportation averaged 78%, energy 75% and technology 74%. Lower compliance came on education at 72%, environmental pollution at 68%, health at 59%, food security at 56%, sustainable development at 56% and forests at 55%. A sixth cause is money mobilised. The G7’s compliance with its climate finance commitments was only 68%. CONCLUSION The G7’s climate compliance has improved, despite recent challenges in international cooperation. Accountability measures matter and should be used, but will not work alone. A global paradigm shift and radical transformative change are needed to restore the balance of power between humanity and the rest of nature. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

Improving

G7 performance on

the environment Compliance on environmental issues has been inconsistent and stands to improve, but there are steps the G7 can take to achieve this

Hélène Emorine, senior researcher, G7 Research Group 70

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

limate change will likely become among the most significant drivers of biodiversity loss by the end of this century. Global warming already harms species and ecosystems, and air and freshwater pollution is causing irreparable damage. The earth’s ecosystems bear the brunt of the damage, but humans’ habitats are also being destroyed, with adverse effects on lives and livelihoods, including through increasing natural disasters. The threats facing the natural environment do not respect borders. Effective collaboration at the international level is vital. The United Kingdom has made protecting the environment a priority of its G7 presidency. The G7’s past performance provides key lessons on how Cornwall can respond effectively to the crises facing the environment.

CONCLUSIONS Since 1975, the G7 dedicated an average of 3.3% of its communiqués to biodiversity, 2.1% to oceans, 0.3% to air and freshwater pollution, and 0.8% to natural disasters. The G7’s attention to these four topics has varied. On biodiversity, the number of words rose to 1,212 (8%) in 2003, dipped to 189 (0.7%) in 2004, spiked to 1,687 words (5%) in 2009 and fell to 362 (4%) in 2010. Similarly, air and freshwater pollution peaked in 2003 with 394 words (3%), and in 2004 plunged to none. The environmental peak came in 2018. The number of words addressing oceans was 1,916 (17%), the most words ever on the subject. The number of words on the environment fell in 2019, going from biodiversity representing 20.2% of the 2018 communiqué to 12.6% of the 2019 communiqué, but was still a significant amount of attention dedicated to the globalgovernanceproject.org

environment. The emergency virtual summit on 16 March 2020, focused on the COVID-19 pandemic, did not address the environment. COMMITMENTS The G7 has made 386 collective, future-oriented, politically binding commitments across all four of these key environmental subjects since 1975. On biodiversity there were 168 commitments, on oceans 272, on air and freshwater pollution 18, and on natural disasters six (with some overlap). The first environment commitment, made in 1984, recognised the need for research on limiting environmental pollution and damage. The number of commitments rose to a peak in 2018 with 92 commitments (20%). It sank to four (13%) in 2019. COMPLIANCE Compliance with these environment commitments averaged 60%, based on the 22 of the 386 environment commitments assessed by the G7 Research Group. This 60% compliance on the environment is far below the overall 76% average on all subjects. Natural disasters achieved the highest average with 75%, followed

The 2021 UK presidency should ensure high compliance on environment commitments by creating synergies, prioritising one-year timelines rather than multi-year ones, and hosting meetings before and after the summit that include ministers responsible for all aspects of the environment” by oceans with 73%. Air and freshwater pollution had only 59% and biodiversity 52%. Across all four environment subjects, the 2005 and 2015 summits tied for the highest compliance at 100%. The lowest compliance was 14% for commitments at the 1996 summit. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS Commonalities among commitments with

high compliance suggest measures G7 leaders can take to spur higher levels. First, environment commitments that synergistically refer to related subjects in the commitment text average 82% compliance. Synergies are absent from all the environment commitments with compliance below a 75% average. Second, commitments with one-year timelines average 63% compliance compared with 59% for multi-year

G7 performance on biodiversity, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra

mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo n n 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina w a 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 K 200 ana 3 Ev nas kis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G len 200 eag 6 St les . Pe 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%) 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION EMPOWERING WOMEN

G7 performance on oceans, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra

mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve n ice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina wa 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 nan 3 Ev ask ianis lesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G len 200 eag 6 St les . Pe 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%)

timelines, because the latter dilute the urgency of implementing action. Third, holding ministerial meetings before and after the leaders’ summit that bring together all ministers with portfolios that include the environment – not just environment ministers – significantly increases compliance. In 2005, G7 Since 1975, the G7 has dedicated an average of

3.3% 2.1% 0.3% 0.8%

of its communiqués to biodiversity,

to oceans,

to air and freshwater pollution, and

Conclusions (% words)

environment ministers participated in joint pre- and post-ministerials with their energy and development colleagues, demonstrating the interconnected nature of the environment. Years with pre-summit ministerials solely for environment ministers averaged 64% compliance. G7 performance on the environment is inconsistent, but the growing number of environmental crises is increasing global demand for action. The 2021 UK

Commitments (%)

presidency should ensure high compliance on environment commitments by creating synergies, prioritising one-year timelines rather than multi-year ones, and hosting meetings before and after the summit that include ministers responsible for all aspects of the environment. The UK should leverage the Cornwall Summit and its presidency of the Glasgow climate summit to create momentum to drive further global ambitious and collective action on the environment.

HÉLÈNE EMORINE Hélène Emorine, MSc, is a senior researcher with the G7 and G20 Research Groups, based at the University of Toronto. She holds a master’s degree in global governance and diplomacy from the University of Oxford, where her research focused on collaboration between the private sector and international organisations. She has held various roles advising stakeholders on key public policy and geopolitical issues, and producing thought leadership addressing Canada’s most pressing challenges. @heleneemorine : www.g7.utoronto.ca

to natural disasters

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

A year for tough decisions With the climate crisis worsening, continued failure to act risks even more devastation. However, the Cornwall Summit presents an opportunity to spur collective action from the global community Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, executive secretary to the UNFCCC

hroughout 2020, the world faced one of its most challenging years in recent memory. The COVID-19 pandemic reached practically every country, threatening the lives of billions of people. The measures adopted by governments and societies to protect people’s health and well-being have led to the most severe global recession in nearly a century, shutting down businesses, destroying jobs and affecting livelihoods. The challenge has been formidable, but so has the collective response to overcoming the pandemic. Governments have placed their confidence in scientific evidence and technical expertise. Medical and healthcare professionals have worked tirelessly to protect the lives of the sick and vulnerable. Businesses have changed their everyday practices to concentrate on the safety of employees and the immediate needs of consumers. Societies have reassessed their priorities, harmonising personal freedom with collective well-being and social responsibility. HOPE FOR THE FUTURE In 2015, the countries of the world adopted the Paris Agreement, a covenant of hope with the people of the world. It was a milestone for multilateralism – a declaration that humanity could and would stand united and address the most significant threat to its collective future. We were right to be optimistic then, and we remain so today: after all, history shows that the world succeeds together when the world works together. Multilateralism is how countries, united, cured polio, eradicated smallpox, began to repair the ozone layer and more.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Much has changed in the five years since the Paris Agreement was adopted. Multilateralism is besieged by those championing isolation over cooperation. Misinformation proliferates at alarming levels, threatening post-Enlightenment scientific and social progress. A global pandemic has dramatically changed the way we live and work. In five years, the climate emergency has worsened as well, with impacts threatening lives and livelihoods globally. The facts are sobering. The year 2020 was among the hottest three years on record. The past decade was the hottest in human history. Ocean heat is at record levels. According to Germanwatch, between 2000 and 2019, more than 475,000 people lost their lives as a direct result of more than 11,000 extreme weather events globally with losses amounting to more than $2.5 trillion. This is our new reality: one devastating for millions, especially the most vulnerable. Despite this, countries have not yet moved the Paris Agreement from adoption to implementation. Nor have they fulfilled commitments under it. The recent NDC Synthesis Report, measuring the combined impact of national climate action plans, shows that current levels of climate ambition are very far from putting countries on a pathway that will meet the goals of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C by the end of the century. At the current rate, countries will achieve only less than a 1% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 levels. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate globalgovernanceproject.org

11,000 extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019 caused

475,000 $2.5trn deaths and

in losses

BUILDING FORWARD This year, 2021, must be the year of tough decisions and significant progress by countries. Yet it also offers an unprecedented opportunity, as countries build forward from COVID-19, to structure resilient, sustainable and green post-recovery economies aligned with the Paris Agreement. The milestone event of the 26th Conference of the Parties in Glasgow in November, while always important, is now crucial. It is nothing less than a credibility test for our collective efforts to address climate change, implement the Paris Agreement and continue building climate ambition. To achieve success, parties must: •

• •

fulfil promises previously made: specifically, the COP16 Cancún pledges outlining broad climate action by 2020; wrap up outstanding negotiation items; raise ambitions in mitigation,

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•

adaptation and finance; and bring state and non-state voices together to continue building climate ambition.

These keys to success represent an incredible amount of work. Progress will not be easy. A robust negotiation process is required to achieve good outcomes. Such a process must be built on trust and inclusivity, and G7 members can lead, both through the fulfilment of previous pledges and by encouraging fulfillment of the above-mentioned keys to success. This was, as readers will recall, vital in the lead-up to Paris in 2015, especially with respect to achieving the Cancún Agreements, and it remains so today when we must finalise the rules of implementation. This is why UN Climate Change continues to work with both states and non-state actors in a spirit of inclusive multilateralism to achieve a unity of vision and continue advancing the climate agenda despite pandemic-related challenges. Never has a generation had the chance to change so much in so little time. Our collective climate agenda is significant and our challenges many, but we must get it right. This is the year we can do it – the year the world commits to making pivotal, transformational change in global climate policy and action; the year we finally move closer to implementing the Paris Agreement; and the year we finally unleash its true power and potential when the world needs it most.

PATRICIA ESPINOSA CANTELLANO Patricia Espinosa Cantellano took office as executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN Climate Change) in 2016. She served as Mexico’s ambassador to Germany from 2012 to 2016 and from 2001 to 2002, and minister of foreign affairs from 2006 to 2012. She chaired the 16th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC leading to the adoption of the Cancún Agreements and was named by the UN secretary-general to the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. @PEspinosaC : unfccc.int

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

PIC: UNFCCC

Change calls for that reduction to be 45% lower. To say current levels are insufficient is an understatement. G7 members have a critical role to play in driving climate ambition in mitigation, adaptation and finance. Not all G7 members have yet submitted an updated and more ambitious nationally determined contribution. Doing so in 2021 is essential not only with respect to aligning the world’s trajectory with the goals of the Paris Agreement, but also with respect to multilateral leadership as well.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

The green shoots of change

Biodiversity loss and pandemic risk are inextricably linked. To build back better for all, pandemic recovery efforts must place biodiversity at their heart Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, executive secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity

7 leaders will convene in Cornwall in truly unprecedented times. As the world starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic as a result of global vaccination programmes and begins to build back better, it is more imperative than ever to pave an inclusive and effective path towards achieving the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The pandemic has further highlighted the importance of the relationship between people and nature and

the need to completely change it. Although the relationship between biodiversity and infectious disease is complex, it is clear that the loss and degradation of biodiversity undermine the web of life and increase the risk of disease spillover from wildlife to people. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services noted that the underlying causes of pandemics are the same global environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss and climate change. These include land use changes, agricultural expansion and intensification, and wildlife trade and consumption. These drivers bring wildlife, livestock and people into closer contact, and allow animal microbes to move into people. They lead to infections, sometimes outbreaks and, more rarely, into true pandemics that spread through road networks, urban centres, global travel and trade routes. Accordingly, reducing deforestation and the loss, degradation and fragmentation of habitats in general, plus slowing down the encroachment of people and livestock into biodiverse areas, are all likely to reduce pandemic risk.

ELIZABETH MARUMA MREMA

ECONOMIC INCENTIVE FOR CHANGE Decreasing disease risk through the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity is highly cost-effective. As the last year has so tragically shown, pandemics and other emerging zoonoses cause widespread human suffering, and likely more than a trillion dollars in economic damages annually (with COVID-19 already costing tens of trillions). However, global strategies to prevent pandemics that are based on decreased wildlife trade and land use change, biosafety and increased One Health surveillance are estimated to cost one or two orders of magnitude less than the damages produced by those pandemics. This provides a strong economic incentive for transformative change. The Contracting Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity are currently developing the post-2020 global biodiversity framework for adoption at the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties in Kunming, China. Talks on a revised zero draft of the framework are under way, although delayed due to the pandemic. It is invigorating to see a growing number of world leaders already underscoring the important role of biodiversity as a key environmental determinant of human health. The conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity can benefit human health by maintaining ecosystem services and options for the future – this was the clear message from the United Nations Biodiversity Summit held in September 2020. Indeed, this message and the various commitments announced by heads of states and governments at the summit have been very helpful in maintaining the requisite political momentum on the road to Kunming. I am very encouraged to expect a similarly strong message sent by G7 leaders in their joint statement on the road to the Cornwall Summit. Given these links between biodiversity loss and pandemic risk, as well as the importance of biodiversity in addressing climate change and for sustainable development more generally, recovery

@mremae @UNBiodiversity : www.cbd.int

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Elizabeth Maruma Mrema was appointed executive secretary of the Secretariat to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2020, having served as interim executive secretary since 2019. She was previously director of the Law Division of the United Nations Environment Programme, where she held many positions over two decades, including deputy director of the Ecosystems Division and executive secretary of the UNEP/Secretariat of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. Before joining UNEP, Mrema worked with the Ministry Ņü 8ŅųåĜčĹ eý±ĜųŸ ±ĹÚ FĹƋåųĹ±ƋĜŅĹ±Ĭ ŅŅŞåų±ƋĜŅĹ Ņü ƋĘå ĹĜƋåÚ åŞƚÆĬĜÏ Ņü Tanzania and was a lecturer in public international law and diplomacy.

The loss and degradation of biodiversity undermine the web of life and increase the risk of disease spillover from wildlife to people”

+$ trn

in economic damages annually from pandemics and other emerging zoonoses

measures must address the common drivers of biodiversity loss and pandemic risk and contribute to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. The Cornwall Summit provides an excellent opportunity for G7 leaders to send a strong joint message in this regard. It would highlight the importance of mainstreaming biodiversity in post-pandemic recovery efforts that build back better for all, and thus re-emphasise the essential role of biodiversity in achieving the 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals. Putting forward strong and tangible commitments to this effect would galvanise further political momentum for the development and, once adopted, effective implementation of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, as an essential contribution to the United Nations decade of action on achieving the SDGs. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

7 leaders gather in person in Cornwall at a time of unprecedented global change driven by COVID-19. As G7 host Prime Minister Boris Johnson is focused on building back better by creating a greener and more prosperous future, energy issues will be driven by the summit’s climate and environment track. He has committed to advance a green energy transition that cuts greenhouse gas emissions and creates jobs on a collective path to net zero by 2050. Progress on mitigation, adaptation and finance in accordance with the Paris Agreement are key tenets of the G7’s energy policy direction. CONCLUSIONS From 1975 to 2019, the G7 dedicated an average of 876 words (11%) of its communiqués to energy. Phase one, from 1975 to 1989, featured 13 summits that referenced energy policy and averaged 425 words (15%). Only the 1985 and 1988 summits during this period failed to address energy issues in any substantive way. The second phase, from 1990 to 2004, saw a high of 641 words (6%) in 1999 and a low of 43 words (0.4%) in 2002. The third phase, from 2005 to 2014, showed a significant increase in energy conclusions, with an average of 2,315 words (15%). It spiked in 2009 with 6,333 words

G7 performance on

energy In tandem with creating a more prosperous and green future, the G7 can promote reliable, affordable energy supplies as a means of combating the pandemic (38%) and plunged to 567 words (2.5%) in 2005. The fourth phase, from 2015 to 2019, peaked at 1,688 words (13%) in 2015 and fell to 1,818 words (8%) in 2016. It dropped further to 503 words (7%) in 2019, 409 words in 2018 (4%) and 386 words (5%) in 2017. Energy was not mentioned at all during the G7’s emergency virtual summit on 16 March 2020. COMMITMENTS Within these conclusions, G7 leaders made 463 energy commitments between 1975 and

ELLA KOKOTSIS An expert on summit accountability, Ella Kokotsis, PhD, has attended most G7 summits since 1994, has written broadly on various aspects of summitry and global governance, has directed the research and publication of numerous analytical documents, and has spoken extensively at summit-related conferences worldwide. Her scholarly methodology for assessing summit compliance continues to serve as the basis for the annual accountability reports produced by the G7, G20 and BRICS Research Groups. She is the author of Keeping International Commitments: Compliance, Credibility and the G7 and co-author of The Global Governance of Climate Change. @g7_rg : www.g7.utoronto.ca

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Ella Kokotsis, director of accountability, G7 Research Group

2019. Only development issues rank higher in the number of commitments made by the leaders. Three energy commitments, or 20% of all, were made at the first summit in 1975. From 1975 to 1983, 113 energy commitments were made. The highest – with 43 commitments, for 78% of the total – came in 1979, at the height of the second oil crisis. The period from 1984 to 1996 showed little focus on energy, with only three commitments made (5%) at the 1991 summit. From 1997 to 2005, the number ticked up, culminating at 57 commitments (26%) made at the 2005 summit. In 2006, with Russia hosting its only G8 summit, energy security became the signature theme, resulting in an all-time record of 78 (24%) energy commitments. After 2006, energy commitments fluctuated, up to 41 (12%) made in 2007, but none in 2013 or 2019. COMPLIANCE Compliance with these commitments averaged 82%, based on the 22 assessed by the G7 Research Group, well above the overall 76% average for all commitments. The highest energy compliance came with commitments from 2001 with 100%, 2006 with 89% and 2018 again with 100%. globalgovernanceproject.org

Compliance was led by the European Union at 93%, the United States at 91% and the United Kingdom at 89%. Then came Germany at 84%, and Canada at 82%. Below the 82% average were France at 80%, Japan at 78% and Italy at 73%. Higher energy compliance came on commitments to ensure the G7’s energy systems continued to drive sustainable economic growth; lower scores arose with commitments on universal access to cleaner, safer, more affordable energy. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS At Cornwall this year, G7 leaders can improve compliance with their energy commitments in several ways. G7 energy compliance is highest, at or above average, with commitments that mention an energy ministerial meeting (100%), use highly binding language (100%), create an official-level body (100%), refer to the private sector (95%), define a timetable (94%), or refer to regulatory frameworks (89%). Compliance falls in the middle when commitments reference outside agencies (78%). Lower compliance comes with commitments using low binding language (61%) or refering to self-monitoring or voluntary reporting mechanisms (56%).

463

energy commitments made from 1975 to 2019

82%

compliance with energy commitments

26%

of energy commitments were made at a single summit in 2005

These findings suggest that G7 leaders benefit from inserting highly binding language into their energy commitments, operating within a defined timetable, creating energy-related official-level bodies and engaging in public-private partnerships. Compliance is also higher with issues preceded by an energy ministerial meeting. G7 leaders should advance voluntary monitoring or self-reporting mechanisms. They should also generate more energy commitments. The six summits with the highest compliance of 89% generated a total of 167 commitments, and the five summits with the lowest compliance of 72% generated only 90 commitments. A continued, affordable, reliable, secure and clean energy supply is critical to stopping the COVID-19 pandemic. A coordinated response to ensure energy market resilience and adaptation in managing future emergencies will be key. At Cornwall the G7 needs to deliver bold commitments that highlight the criticality of energy infrastructure and security in the ongoing emergency, and also provide assurance that clean energy technologies remain reliable as future energy systems are transformed.

G7 performance on energy commitments, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina wa 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 n ana 3 Ev skis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G l e 200 nea 6 St gle . Pe s 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%) 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

World Future Energy Summit

Discover the future of energy The world’s leading event for clean energy sustainability offers a unique opportunity to explore innovative new technology, discuss critical issues and meet key stakeholders

he World Future Energy Summit, taking place on 17-19 January 2022 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre, is the world’s leading business event for clean energy and sustainability. Running during Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, which is hosted by Masdar, this is a global hub for innovation, knowledge and business that aims to accelerate sustainable development. The World Future Energy Summit is attended by key stakeholders from the entire sustainability ecosystem, who have the clout and ability to drive change. The 34,000 attendees from 125 countries at the 2020 summit included 160 ministers and 3,000 C-level executives, alongside a range of other high-level roles, from

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

technical specialists and engineers to architects and VPs. Sessions are led by high-profile speakers from a diverse range of sectors, with industry leaders and changemakers tackling the most vital topics in the future of energy and sustainability. Previous speakers have included Oliver Kraft, the executive director of Expo 2020 Dubai, Unilever’s Priya Sarma and H E Hessa bint Essa Buhumaid, the UAE’s minister of community development. Meanwhile, myriad high-calibre event partners will also be present. Among these is TAQA, which is part of ADQ, a holding company with a broad portfolio of major enterprises, spanning key sectors of Abu Dhabi’s diversified economy. TAQA is a top 10 Hamad Buamim integrated utilities champion in the EMEA

region with power and water and oil and gas operations in 11 countries around the world. A publicly listed company on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) in 2005, it is a diversified company with operations in the UAE as well as Canada, Ghana, India, Iraq, Morocco, Netherlands, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and the United States. The 2022 event will feature a digital matchmaking programme, Sustainability Business Connect, which will bring together buyers, exhibitors and visitors to arrange in-person and virtual meetings, receive product and company recommendations, and manage their event itinerary to enhance the business experience. Meanwhile, the Climate Innovations Exchange (CLIX) will connect start-ups with investors, showcasing cutting-edge and never-seen-before technologies that could transform the global fight against climate change as well as provide new sustainability solutions. Sustainability in space, food and agriculture, and environmental protection are among the 2022 themes for CLIX. In the previous edition, out of 1,400 applicants, 600 start-ups from 128 countries were shortlisted. The Energy Expo and Forum provides a meeting point for governments, energy companies, utilities and innovators to drive the conversation on global renewable energy development and globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

World Future Energy Summit

World Future Energy Summit brings the global clean-tech and sustainability community together as part of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week

innovation. Previous key exhibitors have included Shanghai Electric, BP and Engie. Complementary to this is the Solar and Clean Energy Forum. Topics covered in 2022 will include the future of green hydrogen, planning for energy transition within the new economic environment, and commercial and industrial solar. Decarbonisation of water production, new consumption trends, the impact of localisation and self-efficiency, and water conservation programmes are among the talking points for next year’s Water Forum. As well as establishing the ground for forming business partnerships, this event will foster dialogue between the private and public sectors on innovative solutions. Previous exhibitors at the Water Expo have included the Emirates Water Electricity Co,

BMC Gulf and Abu Dhabi Department of Energy. Running alongside the World Future Energy Summit is the EcoWASTE Exhibition & Forum. The event will drive collaboration and innovation on the circular economy in MENA, as well as cover sustainable approaches within the waste and recycling industries. The EcoWASTE Forum will focus on how landfill waste can be minimised, municipality strategies and plans, and regulations, among other areas. Exhibitors at the 2020 EcoWaste Expo included the International Solid Waste Association, CAP Environmental Solutions and Scania. At the Smart Cities Forum and Expo, industry leaders will explore how technology and sustainability intersect in future urban environments, tackling issues such as 5G and connected smart cities, the Internet of Things, smart mobility, and cyber safety. It will also explore topics related to the creation and liveability of such cities, such as master planning and architectural design. Meanwhile, Tesla, Virgin Hyperloop and BMW Abu Dhabi Motors number among previous exhibitors. How governments and companies can meet their ESG targets will be a central focus of the inaugural Climate and Environment Expo and Forum. Thought leaders, policymakers and innovators will be brought together for thought-provoking sessions all aimed at showcasing the latest advances and insights on building resilience against climate change. These topics will range from decarbonising heavy industry and carbon capture, use and storage to ecosystem conservation and tackling air pollution. Both visitors and exhibitors can attend the event in-person – making the most

As a leading global exhibitions’ producer, we are proud to run a portfolio of future energy business events. These events are speciﬁcally designed to support the global sustainability agenda to combat climate change, in line with the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and COP 21 agreements” – Hugh Jones, ČīńÅ°īƈÎėěäûƈäƹäÎƙƊěƲäƈńýÎäŲ at Reed Exhibitions

of the networking opportunities on-site – or digitally, if unable to be physically present. However, to meet best practice and establish the highest degree of health and safety possible, the World Future Energy Summit is following the five-point plan outlined in Reed Exhibitions’ global framework, which was developed in close collaboration with the National Centre for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. This is in addition to adopting guidelines and direction from local health authorities from Abu Dhabi and the UAE. This comes at a time when decisive action on sustainable energy is becoming critical. As tackling climate change is deeply intertwined with the future of energy, these topics have never been more vital. From attending insightful discussions with industry experts to networking with international exhibitors and attendees, this event is a combination of investment incubator, technology showcase and business forum. This is an unmistakeable and unique opportunity for attendees to be at the forefront of technologies that have the potential to change the world.

Exhibition showcases technologies and innovations that help accelerate the energy transition and combat climate change globalgovernanceproject.org

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

2021:

A deﬁning year for energy

: 20

yea

I Growth and decarbonisation go hand in hand: investing in renewables brings significant socio-economic benefits

Francesco La Camera, director-general, International Renewable Energy Agency 82

t would be no overstatement to say that the energy policy decisions made in 2021 could shape our ability to meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 and the Paris Agreement objectives by 2050. Missing these two key global ambitions is not an option. But without significantly adjusting energy planning, policy making and investment flows, we risk the unthinkable. Nearly two years into this decade of action, it is the last call for meaningful action and decisive leadership. That is the call to G7 leaders as they gather in Cornwall. Building back better, greener and more prosperous from COVID-19 is the theme of the United Kingdom’s G7 presidency. It recognises that the road to recovery presents a unique opening to align state intervention focused on jobs and growth with achieving the longer-term global aims of economic resilience, social equity and climate safety. These are entirely reconcilable objectives. Prioritising an accelerated energy transition through recovery efforts could add 5.5 million jobs in the next two years, and move us closer to the SDGs and climate goals. This is not a moment we can miss. COVID-19 has brought great tragedy, but also offers a moment to reflect and recalibrate priorities and has inspired a wave of commitments to a net-zero future. G7 members have been at the forefront of this. The United Kingdom and the European Union have enshrined net-zero goals into law. Canada, Japan and the United States have stated pledges and are engaged in multi-stakeholder discussions on achieving them.

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

The ambition is positive, but it must now be replaced by meaningful action. Take coal. G7 members face increasing calls, including from United Nations secretary-general António Guterres, to phase out coal from power generation entirely by 2030. Nothing would send a bigger signal of intent than ending coal. This would be energy leadership that puts the G7 at the forefront of global efforts. Global deployment levels in 2020 provide evidence of unprecedented energy transition momentum. Four fifths of all new power added globally last year was renewable, with fossil fuels playing a progressively marginal role. The record 260 gigawatts of additions last year tells a remarkable story of resilience and hope. Despite the uncertainty, renewables emerged as a source of optimism for a more equitable, resilient and just future. This positive trend must strengthen. Our World Energy Transitions Outlook offers leaders a blueprint to the net-zero future many have pledged to achieve. The 1.5°C energy roadmap presents a route to emission reductions and economic growth, and outlines the steps needed to get there – steps that policymakers starting with G7 leaders can, and must, align with immediately. Electricity is the defining factor of this future. By 2050 it will become the world’s most important energy carrier. Electricity’s share of final energy use will rise from 21% globalgovernanceproject.org

COVID-19 has brought great tragedy, but also offers a moment to reflect and recalibrate priorities and inspired a wave of commitments to a net-zero future”

21: A d e f ining

ar for energy

90% of all electricity will be renewable by 2050

$ m spent on the green transition creates about three times more jobs than fossil fuels

today to nearly 60% in 2050, a three-fold rise achievable through significant efforts to electrify our economies. TURNING GREEN This near electrification of everything is underpinned by an optimal blend of cost-effective renewable power generation technologies, complemented by modern bioenergy and green hydrogen. By 2050, 90% of all electricity will be renewable, but to get there, around 800 GW of new renewable power capacity is needed each year: over three times 2020’s record levels. Where the policies go, investment follows. Government plans today call for $98 trillion of energy system investment in the coming

FRANCESCO LA CAMERA Francesco La Camera assumed the role of director general of IRENA in 2019. He formerly served as director general of sustainable development in Italy’s Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea. As the national coordinator üŅų ÏĬĜĵ±ƋåØ åĹƴĜųŅĹĵåĹƋØ ųåŸŅƚųÏå åþÏĜåĹÏƼ ±ĹÚ ƋĘå circular economy, he led the Italian delegation at several Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. He served as co-chair of the Africa Centre for Climate and Sustainable Development and co-chaired the Financial Platform for Climate and Sustainable Development. @flacamera : irena.org

globalgovernanceproject.org

three decades, yet IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario requires an additional $33 trillion related to energy transition over the planned investments and a massive redirection of money away from fossil fuels into green assets. This $131 trillion of investment to mid-century will bring massive socio-economic benefits. For each million dollars spent, the transition creates close to three times more jobs than fossil fuels. That growth and decarbonisation are complementary is not new to the G7. Over the last 30 years, the United Kingdom has grown its economy by 75% while cutting emissions by around 43%. Joe Biden has put jobs and growth at the heart of US ambitions for a clean power system by 2035. The EU’s Green Deal targets a climate-neutral, prosperous EU that leaves no one behind by 2050. The technological avenues to realise this sustainable future exist now. Proven renewable energy solutions are increasingly cost-competitive and deployable at large scale. Yet to realise the benefits, governments should align climate goals with concrete energy plans and pursue an action-oriented agenda. This is a critical flashpoint in our history. The 2020s will either be the decade we built the future or the one in which we squandered it. Much depends on the leadership shown by industrialised countries. G7 leaders take note – it really is now or never. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 r is 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina wa 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 nan 3 Ev a s kis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G len 200 eag 6 St les . Pe 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

197 5 Ra

ACHIEVING GENDER EQUITY

gender equality

Compliance (%)

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

G7 performance on

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected women, yet the G7 has yet to acknowledge the link. To improve outcomes for women post-pandemic and beyond, specific commitments with built-in compliance catalysts are essential

Conclusions (% words)

Julia Kulik, director of research, G7 Research Group

G7 performance on gender equality, 1975–2020

100

Commitments (%)

globalgovernanceproject.org

JULIA KULIK

he 2021 G7 Cornwall Summit will be the third to take place during the COVID-19 crisis. The first virtual summit was in March 2020, which failed to acknowledge the impact of COVID-19 on women. The second was on 19 February 2021, which did no better. By this June, regardless of their respective stages of pandemic response, G7 members must acknowledge the link between COVID-19 and gender equality and commit to mitigating its detrimental effects, by eliminating gender pay gaps, strengthening domestic social policies, and preventing violence against women at home and abroad. CONCLUSIONS G7 leaders first addressed gender equality at their 1990 summit, then addressed it sporadically. Their attention steadily increased from 2013 until 2019. G7 communiqués averaged 668 words on gender equality at each summit, for almost 6% of the total words from 1975 to 2020. (There was a reference to men and women at the 1982 summit, but it did not address gender equality.) The greatest attention came at the three summits from 2017 to 2019. The 2017 Taormina communiqué contained 3,888 words (44.9%) on gender equality. This increased in 2018 at Charlevoix to 5,086 words (45.3%), the highest and most mainstreamed amount. There was a slight decline in Biarritz in 2019 to 2,441 words (33.8%), still significantly above average. In 2016, the G7 began releasing standalone documents on gender equality, with two issued in 2018 and three in 2019. They were statements on improving education for women and girls in developing countries, ending gender-based violence in a digital context and the Biarritz Partnership on Gender Equality. COMMITMENTS Since 1975, the G7 made a total of 311 public, collective, precise, future-oriented and politically binding commitments on gender equality, accounting for over 5% of the total number identified by the G7 Research Group. Most were made between 2015 and 2018. Before then, most were gender-related commitments with other

311

commitments made on gender equality since G7 summits began in 1975

globalgovernanceproject.org

Julia Kulik, MPP, is director of research for the G7 Research Group as well as for the G20 and BRICS Research Groups and the Global Health Diplomacy Program, all based at the University of Toronto. She has written on G7, G20 and BRICS performance, particularly on the issues of gender equality and regional security. Kulik leads the groups’ work on gender, women’s health, regional security and summit performance. @juliafkulik : www.g7.utoronto.ca

issues at their core, including addressing HIV/AIDS, improving maternal and child health, and improving educational outcomes for girls in Africa. Gender equality became a focus in 2015, with 34 (9%) commitments, followed by 48 (14%) in 2016, and 71 in 2017 (39%). In 2018, the G7 made a record 82 (26%) commitments on gender equality. In 2019, this dropped significantly to 17, but was still 24% of the low number of commitments made that year. COMPLIANCE G7 members averaged 73% compliance with these gender commitments, based on the 44 assessed for compliance by the G7 Research Group. This 73% gender compliance average is slightly below the overall 76% average across all subjects. The gender commitments with the highest compliance focused on health, including improving maternal, newborn and child health outcomes for women, and commitments that invoked legal action or the protection of human rights. Commitments with the lowest compliance focused on supporting refugee and internally displaced women and girls affected by conflict and disaster and on gender-based violence. The highest compliance came with commitments made in 2002 with 100%, in 2013 with 95%, in 1996 and 2018 with 92% each, in 2014 with 86% and in 2007 with 84%. The lowest compliance came with commitments made in 2011 with 45% and 2004 with 56%. Meanwhile, the highest complying G7 member was

73%

Average compliance on gender equality commitments

Canada at 88%. It was followed by the UK at 85% and the European Union at 77%. In the middle were Germany at 76%, the United States at 75% and France at 69%. The lowest compliers were Japan at 65% and Italy at 50%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS The highest complying summits, averaging 84%, had a high degree of internal G7 institutional support: they coincided with the only two ministerial meetings on gender equality ever held and with the creation of three of the five gender-related institutional bodies. The lowest complying summits, averaging 60%, came on commitments made in years with no such ministerial meetings and with only two institutional bodies created. The highest complying summits also dedicated a larger percentage of their communiqués – on average 18% – to gender equality – compared with the 6% average for the lowest complying summits. Core gender commitments average 67% compliance. Gender-related commitments average 77%, and those with the highest compliance link gender equality to health, specifically to maternal and newborn health, AIDS and reproductive health. Commitments with the lowest compliance lack specificity, but commit to or support gender equality and women’s empowerment broadly. The presence of compliance catalysts, such as text on how to implement a commitment, generally improves compliance. Gender commitments with embedded catalysts average 80% compliance and commitments with none average 64%. The catalysts that coincide with the highest compliance refer to a G7 body, invoke legal instruments or refer to working with a particular country, region or agent. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ACHIEVING GENDER EQUITY

Establishing generation equality Gender-targeted commitments will be crucial for safeguarding the gains made in women’s rights

espite almost ubiquitous challenges, there are positive solutions for steering out of the disastrous impact of COVID-19 and into constructive change. They require recognising previously underestimated underlying factors that the pandemic stressors have brought to light. The G7’s decisive commitment to gender-responsive stimulus packages that truly respond to women’s needs will be critical. Several governments have already taken unprecedented measures, by strengthening access to health

Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, UN undersecretary-general and executive director, UN Women

47m

women could fall into poverty this year if issues are left unaddressed

care, cash transfers, paid sick leave and unemployment benefits. Yet while some of these measures benefit women, far too few are designed or implemented with women’s rights or needs in mind. As the UNDP/UN Women COVID-19 Global Gender Response Tracker shows, only 18% of the global social protection and jobs response has targeted women’s economic security or addressed the rise in unpaid care work. Without a change, another 47 million women will fall into extreme poverty this year, reversing decades of progress. We look to governments and to all those who control power, resources and influence to champion what we call ‘Generation Equality’, shaping a future together that dismantles the barriers to women’s progress through working across generations and sectors. I invite all G7 members to join Generation Equality’s Global Acceleration Plan that convenes collective action on six themes including economic justice and rights, gender-based violence, feminist action for climate justice, and technology and innovation for gender equality, with targets to guide action and investment for the next five years. The pandemic has confirmed that care for children and other family members is essential, life-sustaining work that needs investments in both public and private quality care services. It also requires new, well-paid, safe care jobs that recognise,

The Women's March 2017, Washington DC, United States

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021 globalgovernanceproject.org

reduce and redistribute the current unpaid care work in homes, and reward careworkers and guarantee their labour rights. Such changes need an enabling legal and policy environment. STEPPING UP Within the G7, Canada recently promised significant fiscal resources to achieve affordable childcare for all, committing to improving the pay and conditions of care workers. The new US administration has recognised that care is infrastructure, alongside roads and bridges, pledging investments of $400 billion. Every G7 member should implement gender-responsive macroeconomic plans, budget reforms and stimulus packages that significantly reduce the number of women and girls living in poverty, including through quality public social protection floors and systems. Now is the moment for the other G7 members to follow in supporting the care economy, and championing women’s economic justice and rights to the rest of the world. Even before the pandemic, women’s employment was often concentrated in the most vulnerable informal jobs. During the pandemic, women have lost their jobs at a faster rate than men, with particularly devastating consequences for the economic autonomy of women with care responsibilities, with labour market vulnerabilities even worse for the most excluded – including women

globalgovernanceproject.org

PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka has been United Nations under-secretary-general and executive director of UN Women since 2013. From 2005 to 2008, she served as deputy president of South Africa. Prior to that she served as South Africa’s minister of minerals and energy and deputy minister in the Department of Trade and Industry. She is the founder of the Umlambo Foundation, which supports leadership and education. Twitter @phumzileunwomen  unwomen.org

with disabilities, migrant, refugee women and small farmers. Lost income and employment, food insecurity and substance abuse are linked to increased risk of men’s violence against women and girls, exacerbating the prevalent domestic and other forms of violence. Women aged between 15 and 24 are often the worst affected. There are well-grounded fears that other forms of violence, such as female genital mutilation and child marriage, are also increasing. I urge G7 members to join the Global Acceleration Plan to tackle gender-based violence and ratify international and regional conventions; scale up implementing and financing evidence-driven prevention strategies;

scale up implementing and financing survivor-centred, comprehensive, quality, accessible and affordable services for survivors; and support women’s rights organisations, activists and movements, including those addressing gender-based violence against women and girls in all their diversity. These will help us to rethink, renew and revolutionise how we organise our societies and economies. G7 members are in a unique position to champion these initiatives, both at home and as donors to developing countries and influencers of the global system. Progress will also depend on generating much-needed financial resources, especially for developing countries. The US administration is demonstrating global leadership by calling on the International Monetary Fund to issue special drawing rights to provide emergency funds for developing countries to pay off unsustainable debt, fund vaccines or invest in social protection. A new global minimum tax rate proposed by the United Nations and now also supported by the United States would help stem the tide of tax evasion and avoidance, and ensure everyone fairly contributes to the kind of world we want for the next generation. Crises of the magnitude we face today call for big, bold ideas and extraordinary levels of global solidarity, cooperation and commitment to implement them. The Generation Equality Action Coalitions bring together the broad range of actors needed to drive progress forward, including states, civil society, young people, the private sector, philanthropies and many more, for a more sustainable and just future, with prosperity for all. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ACHIEVING GENDER EQUITY ACHIEVING GENDER EQUITY

Reimagining the future The pandemic has presented a once-in-a-generation opportunity to revolutionise the systems that shape young people’s lives, providing them with the tools that will help them realise their potential

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Henrietta Fore, executive director, UNICEF

OVID-19 has exposed the deep inequities facing children. The pandemic has affected virtually everyone on the planet, but not equally. Children in marginalised groups, conflict settings, natural disasters and poverty are bearing the brunt of its effects. Yet there is reason for hope – if we act. In February, as UNICEF kicked off its 75th year, I laid out my hopes for a post-COVID-19 future. I outlined five opportunities we must seize together to reimagine a better world for children.

globalgovernanceproject.org

∙Vaccines for all. The rapid development of multiple COVID-19 vaccines is a historical feat that should be celebrated. But the disadvantaged are being left behind. There is simply not enough vaccine supply to meet demand and the supply available is concentrated in too few hands. We need speed and simplicity to remove barriers to vaccine procurement and distribution, whether by drone, motorcycle or horseback. And we need to build trust by fighting misinformation and raising awareness about the value and effectiveness of all vaccines. ∙Revolutionise learning. During the peak of school closures last year, 30% of the world’s schoolchildren were unable to access remote learning. Only just over half of households in most countries have internet access. We face a oncein-a-generation opportunity to connect every child and school to the internet and provide digital tools to help them develop the skills to realise their potential – through and beyond COVID-19. UNICEF’s Reimagine Education is revolutionising learning and skills development through digital learning, internet connectivity, devices, affordable data and the engagement of young people. With private-sector partners and governments,

globalgovernanceproject.org

by the end of 2021, we aim to reach 500 million children and youth, and 3.5 billion by 2030.

30%

of world’s schoolchildren unable to access remote learning during the peak of school closures in 2020

50% 142m of households lack internet access

more children were living in monetarily poor households by the end of 2020

∙Invest in mental health. Mental health is just as important as physical health. Yet less than 1% of health budgets in low-income countries goes towards it. Some countries are showing how we can shift from the stigma of mental health to counselling and support. In Bangladesh, Georgia and India, free phone helplines provide vital care for children. In Kazakhstan, which has among the highest adolescent suicide rates, UNICEF launched a platform for online counselling for adolescents and training for mental health specialists facing anxiety and stress caused by COVID-19. But we need to do more. Seeking help for mental health should be normalised. Countries need to provide the investment it deserves and dramatically expand mental health services and support for young people. ∙End discrimination. In too many countries, your ethnicity, your colour, your religion or your wealth determines your opportunity and too many children are left behind. Globally, the number of children living in monetarily poor

2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

ACHIEVING GENDER EQUITY

We need to rally behind practical and concrete steps to invest in our children”

∙Address the climate crisis. COVID-19 has taught us that planetary problems require planetary solutions. Failure to address climate change head on will only exacerbate inequality. Whether it’s providing clean water to the 40% of the global population that lacks access, reducing pollution, engaging youth as agents of change or creating resilient learning through green schools, climateand disaster-smart health services, these solutions have ripple effects, with benefits to health and the economy while building resilience to future disasters. When UNICEF was created 75 years ago after World War II, the scale of the problems facing children was immense. But as a global community, 90

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

HENRIETTA FORE Henrietta Fore has been UNICEF’s seventh executive director since 2018. From 2007 to 2009, she was the administrator of the US Agency for International Development, having earlier served as assistant administrator for Asia and assistant administrator for private enterprise. Fore also served as under secretary of state for management and director of the United States Mint in the US Department of Treasury. Immediately prior to her appointment with UNICEF, Fore was chair of the board and chief executive ŅþÏåų Ņü BŅĬŸĵ±Ĺ FĹƋåųĹ±ƋĜŅĹ±Ĭţ @unicefchief : www.unicef.org

we reimagined what was possible by building new health and welfare systems, defeating diseases, and creating new forums for both global coordination and action. We can do it again. Global leaders can build on the G7 Cornwall Summit to reaffirm our dedication to children and young people through concrete action. We need to rally behind practical and concrete steps to invest in our children – to finance health and education, build stronger systems and services, and ensure that budget cuts and economic downturns do not harm them. Doing so will not only help children now. It will build our collective resilience in the face of future crises. globalgovernanceproject.org

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households increased by 142 million by the end of 2020. Social protections such as cash transfers can be crucial tools to help families stay afloat and also fight inequality broadly – providing support to send children to school and health facilities, to buy nutritious food and to reduce child labour. UNICEF is working with governments in 115 countries to support expanded social protection programmes. Past crises have proved there is a strong investment case for prioritising social sectors, even during economic recession. As governments work to protect their people from the aftershocks of COVID-19, they must protect investments in all social services for children from cuts, and ensure they use their resources efficiently to maintain service delivery.

Photo: Neeraz Chaturvedi/Shutterstock.com

Photo: Nowaczyk/Shutterstock.com

Financing the private sector to empower rural women in Bangladesh.

Creating MSME opportunities for women and young graduates in Egypt.

Photo: Carrastock/Shutterstock.com

Photo: Marjolein Hameleers/Shutterstock.com

Supporting agricultural production in Senegal’s rural communities.

Improving access to ﬁnance for women-owned MSMEs in Colombia.

G7 performance

A DIGITAL WORLD

digital innovation on

he global economic shutdown triggered by COVID-19 hit at a time when digital innovation was flourishing. Now as we move from containment to recovery, G7 leaders need to support collaborative models and continued investment, to mitigate future negative impacts of the pandemic on innovation. As the pandemic forces profound change in all aspects of the digital world, technological innovation plays a starring role in transforming and responding to this new level of global disruption and opportunity. In 2020, momentum from previous G7 summits on digital innovation performance regressed, as G7 leaders focused on tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, UK prime minister Boris Johnson plans to use his G7 presidency to build back better. At the Cornwall Summit, G7 leaders will focus on tackling climate change, leading global recovery from COVID-19, and championing free and fair trade, but not dealing with digitalisation as a top priority.

MEREDITH WILLIAMS Meredith Williams, LLM, is the lead researcher on digital innovation and digitalisation for the G7 and G20 Research Groups at the University of Toronto. She has a master’s of law in innovation technology from the University of Edinburgh Law School, where she specialised in the General Data Protection Regulation, adtech data protection law and e-commerce law. She has held various roles in the Canadian financial services industry, and is currently pursuing a career in the technology industry at one of the largest global e-commerce platforms. @g7_rg : www.g7.utoronto.ca

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Although digital innovation has not been made a top priority for this year’s summit, it could be a significant driver of the post-pandemic recovery Meredith Williams, lead researcher on digitalisation, G7 Research Group CONCLUSIONS From 1975 to 2019 the G7 leaders in their communiqués dedicated 9,020 words to digitalisation, with none at the March 2020 virtual summit held to respond to COVID-19. From 1975 to 1999, G7 summits focused on information and communications technology. The first acknowledgement of digitalisation itself was made in 2000, with 113 words (0.8%). It was not mentioned again until the 2009 summit, in 169 words (0.5%). The 2010 summit made no references and the 2011 summit had 163 words (0.9%). From then on, there was more deliberation on digitalisation, ranging from 2,395 words (18%) in 2013 and peaking at 1,868 (26%) in 2019, with only 395 words (4%) in 2017. COMMITMENTS G7 leaders made 122 commitments on digitalisation since 2000, as identified by the G7 Research Group. They produced 26 between 2000 and 2009, and 96 between 2010 and 2019. They made none between 2001 and 2008, and none in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015. In 2000 0.26% of the commitments were made on digitalisation, rising to 1.2% in 2009. There were 3% in 2011, rising to 8% in 2013 globalgovernanceproject.org

and 7% in 2016, then dropping to 2% in 2017 and rising back to 7% in 2018. At the 2019 summit 31% of the commitments were on digitalisation, the highest percentage at any G7 summit. COMPLIANCE Compliance with G7 digitalisation commitments averaged 65%, based on the eight commitments assessed by the G7 Research Group. This is well below the overall 76% compliance average for all subjects. Compliance with digitalisation commitments fluctuated between 2000 and 2019. The two assessed commitments in 2000 had 100% compliance. The assessed commitment from 2009 had 63% compliance, followed by 78% with the 2011 commitment and 67% with 2013’s commitment. In 2016 and 2017, compliance rose to a high 88%. Then came a plunge to 60% with 2018’s commitments and again to 50% for 2019’s.

Digitalisation compliance has been slightly above the G7’s average since 2016. However, digital innovation continues to outpace G7 policy makers’ responses, evolving much faster than regulation can be implemented” G7 compliance with digitalisation commitments, based on the limited available evidence, is highest, at or above 74%, with commitments that refer to an institutional body such as the Digital Opportunities Taskforce (100%), use highly binding language such as ‘we will’ or ‘we commit to’ (89%), or refer to other international organisations (67%) and the private sector (67%). This suggests that G7 leaders should include such catalysts in their digitalisation commitments, specifically references to institutional bodies, and seek support from international organisations to promote stronger compliance. The G7 should also use highly binding language to hold members more accountable for implementation. Similarly, G7 leaders should avoid the use of low binding language such as ‘we promote’, ‘we support’, or ‘we encourage’, which was used in commitments averaging only 49% compliance. Lastly, G7 commitments lack any reference to self-monitoring or accountability measures, or any specific agenda to stay on track and keep up with the pace of digital innovation. With no clear support from G7 ministerial meetings, and the deprioritisation of digitalisation during the COVID-19 pandemic, Prime Minister Johnson’s leadership at the Cornwall Summit faces significant challenges to get digitalisation back to the forefront of G7 leaders’ agenda for the future.

CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS Digitalisation compliance has been slightly above the G7’s average since 2016. However, digital innovation continues to outpace G7 policy makers’ responses, evolving much faster than regulation can be implemented.

G7 performance on digital innovation, 1975–2020 100

122

commitments made on digitalisation since 1975

65%

Average compliance on digitalisation commitments

197 5 Ra mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina w a 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 n ana 3 Ev skis ianlesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G l ene 200 agl 6 St es . Pe 200 ters 7H bur eilig 200 g end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

Commitments (%) 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

A DIGITAL WORLD

New branches in the labour market

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit G7 labour markets hard. To build resilience, governments need to focus on human-centred recovery policies that prioritise quality employment creation – particularly in the digital, green and care economies

Guy Ryder, director-general, International Labour Organization

he impact of the COVID-19 crisis on G7 labour markets has been deep. But without the measures that governments quickly put in place and have sustained to this day to protect workers and enterprises, it would have been much worse. In 2020, an estimated 8.7% of total working hours – an equivalent of 24.9 million full-time jobs – were lost in the G7. About half of the working hour losses were due to reduced hours of those remaining employed and can be attributed to shorter working hours or ‘zero’ working hours under furlough schemes. The remaining half reflects outright employment losses, largely in the United

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

States. Compared to 2019, total employment fell by 12.9 million due to workers exiting the labour force or – to a lesser extent – becoming unemployed. Prior to the pandemic, G7 economies had been expected to create an estimated 1.2 million jobs. Taken together, this means that the shortfall in jobs in the G7 grew by 14.1 million in 2020. The disruption to labour markets had devastating consequences for both men and women, but women’s employment declined by 4.1% in the G7 compared to 3.4% for men. Young people’s employment declined by 4.5% compared to 2.2% for adults. Moreover, the impact of the crisis on post-support labour income – labour income that includes the support received from the government – has been uneven across different parts of the workforce, with income losses relatively greater for youth, women, and low- and medium-skilled workers. This uneven impact of the crisis exacerbates pre-existing decent-work deficits and risks increasing social inequalities further. The path to full recovery is still long. G7 members have not yet reached their pre-crisis employment levels. While there are hopes that a robust economic recovery will occur in the second half of 2021, our latest projections indicate a continued loss in working hours relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. The employment shortfall in the G7 due to the crisis will remain high, at 9 million in 2021. globalgovernanceproject.org

GUY RYDER Guy Ryder has been director-general of the International Labour Organization since 2012, having held various senior positions in the ILO from 1999 to 2002 and again since 2010. Mr Ryder leads the organisation’s action to promote job-rich growth and to make decent work for all a keystone of strategies for sustainable development. He has a background in the trade union movement and is the former general secretary of the International Trade Union

THE LONG ROAD TO RECOVERY Many challenges lie ahead. In addition to increasing the risk of a surge in bankruptcies in the medium term with all the employment losses they entail, the COVID-19 crisis has led to more economic inactivity, as many people – most of them women – have stopped looking for employment. Moreover, many people who were unemployed before the crisis or became unemployed just at the start of the crisis have now become long-term unemployed. These groups are the most difficult to bring back into employment, and are most in need of an employment opportunity. Furthermore, we are now engaged in an unprecedented, large-scale experiment in mass teleworking. This stands to have a significant long-term impact even after the COVID-19 pandemic. The result could be a substantial reorganisation of the workplace that will require policy action, through regulation and collective bargaining, to leverage the potential benefits of teleworking while addressing the potential downsides. It is vital that response measures build a bridge to the recovery and resilience phases. Continued policy support targeted at hard-hit sectors and workers severely affected by the health crisis will ensure the recovery is firmly embedded in inclusive and equitable growth.

24.9m full-time jobs equivalent lost in G7 countries in 2020

globalgovernanceproject.org

4.1%

decline in women’s employment in the G7, compared with 3.4% for men

Investment, spurred by public investment, must focus on the creation of productive and quality employment and realise the full employment creation potential of fast-growing sectors. The digital, green and care economies offer such potential. To assist enterprises, especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as workers and jobseekers to take advantage of the new opportunities, employment services and active labour market programmes will be instrumental. Active monitoring will be important to determine whether these policies are meeting their employment/re-employment goals. Designing targeted and responsive training pathways can reap large benefits. Ensuring that adequate social protection supports people in their transitions is equally important. So is strengthening labour market institutions, including collective bargaining, occupational safety and health regulations and wage-setting mechanisms, to ensure the protection of workers. Measures that address skilling, upskilling or reskilling for the unmet demand for digital jobs need to pay particular attention to persons with disabilities. Finally, governments, employers’ organisations and trade unions have a joint responsibility to promote decent work and social justice. It is crucial to design and implement recovery strategies through social dialogue if they are to succeed. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

A DIGITAL WORLD

The cost of incoordination

G7 members have yet to find common ground for managing developments in financial technology, but rapid progress is required if the group is to stabilise risks in the digital world Chiara Oldani, University of Viterbo ‘La Tuscia’

s a result of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, G7 economies dropped by 4.7% in 2020. G7 members have implemented expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to sustain the recovery of the economy, financial system and labour market. However, economic recoveries are “diverging across countries and sectors, reflecting variation in pandemic-induced disruptions and the extent of policy support”, as the International Monetary Fund’s April 2021 World Economic Outlook said. G7 countries are expected to grow by 5.1% in 2021. Coordinated global policy is needed to resolve the economic issues that underlie tensions over trade, taxation and technology. Although trade and taxation are at the top of the agenda of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and G7 members have converging interests, approaches to managing the developments

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

in financial technology are not yet similar. There are substantial benefits from digital finance in terms of reduced costs and increased access for small operators, with costs related mainly to regulation, both domestic and international. Regulatory arbitrage significantly threatens financial stability, and larger economies can coordinate global technology regulation. The main focal points are users’ data and users’ rights. The primary asset of the digital world – users’ data – is managed by a few giant firms without any public control or system for protecting consumers. Harvard University’s Shoshana Zuboff describes the current economic system as centred on the commodification of personal data with the core purpose of making profits, which she calls surveillance capitalism; a balance of power is absent. FINDING BALANCE The European Union’s General Data Protection

4.7% 5.1%

drop in G7 economies in 2020

expected growth in G7 countries this year

globalgovernanceproject.org

Users are unaware of the effective costs and gains of the digital revolution that is radically changing their habits and consumption preferences”

Regulation was the first step towards more balanced relationships in the digital world, where the public sector guarantees principles and rights on data privacy and firms compete on a common playing field. However, other G7 members have not taken a similar approach, so arbitrage has not been avoided. Digital finance offers a wide set of tools at the disposal of markets, intermediaries and customers where users’ data are collected, exploited and sold with no reward given to those users. Users are unaware of the effective costs and gains of the digital revolution that is radically changing their habits and consumption preferences. In the COVID-19–afflicted digital world, most technology revolutions bring certain risks that should be actively managed. They include private digital currencies, automated credit providers and the tokenisation of exchanges. Private digital currencies have the potential to substitute, at least partially, for central banks’ money without any guarantee of liquidity for final users. Fintech intermediaries such as automated credit providers can increase the supply of credit for small and medium-sized enterprises but, at present, have no capital requirements and can actively contribute to global financial instability, in the case of adverse shocks. The tokenisation of exchanges widens the opportunity to access the financial system for small globalgovernanceproject.org

CHIARA OLDANI Chiara Oldani is a professor of economics at the University of Viterbo ‘La Tuscia’ and ƋĘå ÚĜųåÏƋŅų Ņü ƋĘå Ņĵå ŅþÏå Ņü ƋĘå :ƀ ±ĹÚ :Ɩǈ åŸå±ųÏĘ :ųŅƚŞŸţ Båų ųåŸå±ųÏĘ focuses on the macroeconomic analysis of ĀĹ±ĹÏĜ±Ĭ ÚåųĜƴ±ƋĜƴåŸØ ĀĹ±ĹÏĜ±Ĭ ŸƋ±ÆĜĬĜƋƼ ±ĹÚ ƵåĬü±ųå åÏŅĹŅĵĜÏŸţ @ChiaraOldani

and medium-sized investors, but functions without any supervision or risk management system (such as a centralised clearing system). The fear of losing market share and businesses has prevented most countries from regulating digital finance services, intermediaries or markets. But the time has come to act. The G7 leaders at the Cornwall Summit should coordinate global action on data regulation and protection, to stabilise digital risks, enhance growth and promote fair competition. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

CRIME, CORRUPTION AND CONFLICT

G7 performance on

crime & corruption The G7 summit presents an opportune moment to address the crime and corruption associated with the pandemic, from misused state aid to conflicts of interest

he United Kingdom, which has frequently prioritised illicit finance and corruption at G7 summits, has tasked the G7 interior ministers to address corruption when they meet after the Cornwall Summit on 11–13 June. Illicit finance and environmental crime will also likely be addressed by the finance ministers, who will meet in May. These issues will also be addressed as part of the open societies agenda, referring to the UK’s vision of a Global Britain navigating a just and fair world built on the principles of transparency and linked to democratic values, which are threatened by crime and corruption. CONCLUSIONS G7 summits have dedicated on average 5% of their outcome documents to crime and corruption since 1975. Only two summits referenced crime and corruption before

DENISSE RUDICH Denisse Rudich, MA, is director of the London ŅþÏå Ņü ƋĘå :ƀ ±ĹÚ :Ɩǈ åŸå±ųÏĘ :ųŅƚŞŸţ Ęå Ę±Ÿ ĘåĬÚ ŸåĹĜŅų ŞŅŸĜƋĜŅĹŸ ĜĹÏĬƚÚĜĹč Ęå±Ú Ņü ±ĹƋĜěĵŅĹåƼ Ĭ±ƚĹÚåųĜĹč ±ĹÚ ÏŅƚĹƋåų ĀĹ±ĹÏĜĹč Ņü ƋåųųŅųĜŸĵ ŞŅĬĜÏƼ üŅų ƋĘå ŅƼ±Ĭ ±Ĺĩ Ņü ÏŅƋĬ±ĹÚ ±ĹÚ ÆååĹ ± ŸåĹĜŅų ±ÚƴĜŸŅų ƋŅ ±ÆŅÆ±Ĺĩţ Ęå ±ÚƴĜŸåŸ ĀĹƋåÏĘŸØ ųåčƋåÏĘŸØ ÏųƼŞƋŅ ±ŸŸåƋŸ ±ĹÚ ÏĜƴĜĬ ŸŅÏĜåƋƼ čųŅƚŞŸ ƵŅųĬÚƵĜÚå ŅĹ ĀĹ±ĹÏĜ±Ĭ ÏųĜĵå ŞųåƴåĹƋĜŅĹ ±ĹÚ ŸåƋ ƚŞ ƋĘå ĀųŸƋ čĬŅÆ±Ĭ eaXx 8 ƵŅųĩĜĹč čųŅƚŞ üŅų ƋĘå ÏųƼŞƋŅ ĜĹÚƚŸƋųƼţ Ęå ųåčƚĬ±ųĬƼ ŞųŅƴĜÚåŸ Ƌų±ĜĹĜĹč ŅĹ ƋåÏĘĹŅĬŅčĜÏ±Ĭ ĜĹĹŅƴ±ƋĜŅĹŸ ĜĹ ĀĹ±ĹÏĜ±Ĭ ÏųĜĵåØ ĜĹÏĬƚÚĜĹč ÏųƼŞƋŅ ±ĹÚ ÆĬŅÏĩÏĘ±ĜĹØ ±ĹÚ ĜŸ ±ĬŸŅ ±Ĺ ±ƚƋĘŅųØ ŸŞå±ĩåų ±ĹÚ ĵŅÚåų±ƋŅų ±Ƌ ĜĹÚƚŸƋųƼ åƴåĹƋŸ ±ĹÚ ĵåĹƋŅų ƋŅ ŸƋ±ųƋěƚŞŸţ @g7_rg : www.g7.utoronto.ca

G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

Denisse Rudich, director, G7 and G20 Research Groups London

1987. The number of words more than doubled in 1989 when the G7 created the Financial Action Task Force. The number then grew before it plummeted to zero in 1993. It increased again to 1,912 words in 1998, which was also the highest percentage of words at 31%. The number of words fluctuated from 1999 to 2004, peaking at 5,827 or 18% in 2004, then continuing to vary. In 2009, the number of words leaped to 3,175 (19%). At the emergency summit responding to the COVID-19 pandemic on 16 March 2020, the G7 did not refer to crime or corruption. COMMITMENTS The G7 made 297 (6%) of its commitments on crime and corruption since 1994, averaging 11 per summit. Between 1975 and 1993, there were none. The 2016 summit had the highest number with 33 commitments (11%). Of all the summits between 1975 and 2019, 48% produced fewer than 10 commitments on crime and corruption; 30% made between 10 and 20 commitments; and 7% made between 20 and 30 commitments. COMPLIANCE Since 1996, G7 members’ compliance with their crime and corruption commitments averaged 73%, based on the 45 commitments assessed by the G7 Research Group. This is below the 76% average compliance across all subjects. Compliance with the crime and corruption commitments fluctuated widely over the years, peaking at 100% with commitments made in 2000 and bottoming out at 25% for commitments made in 2003. Compliance globalgovernanceproject.org

G7 performance on crime and corruption, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve n ice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 ris 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina wa 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 nan 3 Ev ask ianis lesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G len 200 eag 6 St les . Pe 200 ters 7H bur e 200 g ilige 8H nda okk mm aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%)

with commitments made in 2019 was 82%. The United States had the highest 82% compliance at 86%, followed by the United Kingdom with 80%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS Commitments that produce higher than 75% compliance tend to reference the major international organisations, such as the United Nations, the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the FATF, or a process calling for international cooperation. The 24 commitments that use highly binding language, such as ‘will’ and ‘commit’, earned average compliance of 76%; the 21 commitments that use low binding language, such as ‘agree’ and ‘reaffirm’ averaged 70% compliance. Compliance is higher with commitments that reference international law, notably an international convention, such as the UN Convention against Corruption. Compliance is lower with commitments requiring new national legal instruments. Commitments that link many issues average 81% compared with 66% for non-synergistic commitments. Holding ministerial meetings on crime and globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

corruption prior to the summit also tends to increase compliance. Highly binding language combined with support for the work of international organisations also increases compliance. To improve compliance with its crime and corruption commitments, the G7 should make commitments referring to the major relevant international organisations, international law, link to other subjects, use high binding language, or use both highly binding language and a reference to international organisations. More broadly, the G7 should address conflicts of interests and misappropriation of state funds and aid, rampant during the COVID-19 pandemic. It should commit to transparency in beneficial ownership in state-owned enterprises;

81%

Average commitments that link many issues compared with 66% for non-synergistic commitments

Commitments (%)

define corruption and recognise it as a threat to democracy, peace and stability; commit to due diligence on human rights; and explore the links between corruption, sustainability and money laundering/illicit financial flows to develop a multi-faceted, intelligence-led, systems-wide approach that includes community engagement. The G7 should also commit to supporting source countries of corruption-related money laundering and revive the G7 Africa Public-Private Sector Dialogue on Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Terrorist Financing. It should task the FATF with exploring the use of unconventional data points available to the unbanked and secure methods for verifying identity, including the use of blockchain. On environmental crime, the G7 should explore the misuse of green bonds, green washing and fraudulent misreporting of sustainability measures. Given the global nature of crime and corruption, there should be continued focus through an official body responsible for measuring accountability with crime and corruption commitments beginning at the G7 level. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

CRIME, CORRUPTION AND CONFLICT

COMMITMENTS From these deliberations came 349 collective, future-oriented, politically binding commitments on arms control, as identified by the G7 Research Group. This placed arms control fifth among all subjects. The leaders made 22 commitments in the first phase from 1975 to 1990, and 64 in the second phase from 1991 to 2001. The third phase, from 2002 to 2012, produced 250 commitments with an all-time-high of 44 commitments in 2011. Only 13 commitments have been made since 2013, with none in 2019 and 2020.

rms control and non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction have long been among the G7’s core objectives. Over the past year, as traditional vertical and horizontal arms proliferation continued to challenge regional stability and international security, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic indirectly demonstrated the world’s unpreparedness for the disruptive impact of a potentially deliberate biological event. A statement issued by the G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group on 19 April 2021 named Iran, North Korea, Russia and Syria as primary flashpoints for developing, testing or deploying WMD, highlighting the urgent need for coordinated actions from the G7 leaders.

COMPLIANCE Compliance with these commitments averaged 81%, based on the 32 assessed by the G7 Research Group. This was well above the average of 76% on all subjects. The highest compliance came with the arms control commitments from the 2000, 2003, 2005, 2010, 2011 and 2012 summits, with none in these years falling below 92%. The

CONCLUSIONS Arms control arrived on the G7 summit agenda at the 1977 London Summit, where the G7 leaders devoted 200 words (for 7%) of their communiqué to the exclusively peaceful use of nuclear energy. They

G7 performance on

governing arms control have since addressed arms control at every summit except in 1982, with a spike in 1991 when the topic received 1,847 words (23%). At Kananaskis in 2002, in response to shocks of 11 September and the subsequent anthrax attacks in the United States, G7 leaders launched the Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction to monitor and prevent global proliferation. It still functions today. The Global Partnership ushered in a 10-year phase of high, consistent attention to arms control, that peaked at 4,240 words (38%) in 2012. Deliberation plummeted to 447 words (3%) in 2013 and remained under 10% since. The G7 devoted only 23 (1%) words to arms control in 2019 and did not address the issue at all at the virtual summit on 16 March 2020, called to respond to the international health crisis of COVID-19.

100

Recent global flashpoints highlight the urgent need for the G7 to address global arms proliferation Hiromitsu Higashi, researcher, G7 Research Group

2003 summit saw full compliance with the leaders’ promise to strengthen the monitoring capacity of the International Atomic Energy Agency. In the fourth phase from 2014 to 2020, the average compliance was a below-average 75%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS G7 leaders can improve this compliance in three ways. First, the leaders can devote more attention to arms control during their discussions. Compliance with assessed commitments suggests a moderate, positive correlation between delivery and the amount of deliberation related to the issue. The five highest complying summits of 2000, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2012, which averaged 96% compliance,

G7 performance on governing arms control, 1975–2020 100

197 5 Ra mb ouil 197 let 6 Sa n Ju an 197 7 Lo ndo n 197 8B onn 197 9 To kyo 198 0 Ve nice 198 1 Ot taw 198 a 2 Ve 198 rsai 3W lles illia msb urg 198 4 Lo ndo n 198 5 Bo nn 198 6 To kyo 198 7 Ve nice 198 8 To ron to 198 9 Pa 199 r is 0H ous ton 199 1 Lo ndo 199 n 2M unic h 199 3 To kyo 199 4N apl es 199 5H alif ax 199 6 Ly on 199 7D 199 env 8B er irm ingh am 199 9 Co log 200 ne 0O kina wa 200 1 Ge 200 noa 2 Ka 200 nan 3 Ev ask ianis lesBai 200 ns 4 Se a Is 200 land 5G len 200 eag 6 St les . P ete 200 rsb 7H urg eilig 200 end 8H am okk m aido -Toy ako 200 9 L'A qui 201 la 0M usk 201 oka 1 De auv 201 ille 2 Ca mp 201 Dav 3 Lo id ugh Ern 201 e 4 Br uss els 201 5 El 201 ma u 6 Is e-S him 201 a 7 Ta orm 201 ina 8C har levo 201 ix 9B 202 iarr 0 Vi itz rtua l US A

Compliance (%)

commitments ĵ±Úå ĜĹ ƋĘå ĀųŸƋ phase 1975–1990

in the second phrase (1991–2001)

Conclusions (% words)

had on average 2,518 words (19%) devoted to arms control. By contrast, the lowest complying summits of 2002, 2007, 2008, 2015 and 2016, which averaged 66% compliance, had only 1,567 words (8%) on arms control. Second, leaders can incorporate references to the core international organisation into the commitments. Assessed commitments from 2003 and 2004 that referred to the IAEA averaged 89% compliance. Third, leaders can set a multi-year timetable to achieve the objectives in their commitments on arms control. Commitments from 2000, 2005 and 2006 that included a five- or 10-year deadline for actions such as negotiation and provision of funds produced 91% compliance. The recent decline in deliberation and decision-making on arms control in addition to internal, unresolved differences among the G7 members such as regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, plus recent developments such

Commitments (%)

as Russia’s deployment of military-grade nerve agent and North Korea’s new missile tests all call for urgent actions to address global arms proliferation. At Cornwall, G7 leaders should grasp this opportunity to send a strong message to the international community that the G7 is back and ready to confront one of humankind’s gravest challenges. They can start by building on the promising work accomplished by their foreign ministers at their meeting in London on 4–5 May.

HIROMITSU HIGASHI

250 in the third phase (2002–2012)

Hiromitsu Higashi is a research analyst for the G7 Research Group based at the University of Toronto. His research focuses on the digital aspect of international development in the Indo-Pacific theatre, in addition to his interest in arms control. He is currently working for the Center for Strategic and International Studies and will pursue a master’s degree at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC starting in 2021. @g7_rg : www.g7.utoronto.ca

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An environmental call to arms Marcus Pleyer, president, Financial Action Task Force

G7 members and other leading countries are already equipped to go after the illicit funds of criminals – funds that are wreaking havoc on ecosystems, wildlife and people worldwide. Now is the time to use those tools

s the world wonders what recovery will emerge from the wreckage of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers face unprecedented challenges. Public health crises, major economic and social disruption, high unemployment and food insecurity will all rightly be prioritised. However, the G7 must not lose sight of other crucial issues – including the devastating effects of climate change, environmental damage and criminals looting the world’s already fragile natural resources. Criminal gangs that commit environmental crimes know they will almost certainly get away with the profits. Up to $281 billion is generated through environmental crime each year. This destroys wildlife, damages ecosystems, and deprives countries of resources, revenue and development opportunities. At precisely the time when we should be getting a grip on fast-shifting climate change, our planet is being robbed of a sustainable future. That is why the Financial Action Task Force is working to help national authorities and the private sector stop the organised crime networks involved. By applying the FATF’s global standards to combat money laundering, authorities

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can trace the profits and prevent illegal logging from devastating the world’s forests and contributing to climate change. By following the money that fuels the illegal wildlife trade, governments can protect endangered species from extinction and humans from the threat of zoonotic diseases. Other environmental crimes, such as illegal fishing, illegal mining and illegal waste disposal, can all be tackled through financial investigations. LEADING BY EXAMPLE If the G7 leads and sets an example here, it will have an impact. I wholeheartedly welcome the priority that the British G7 presidency places on illicit threats to nature. Until now, however, there has been little coordination even among the G7 and G20, let alone globally. Profits from environmental crime increase by at least 5% each year. Moreover, many criminal networks also carry out other serious crimes such as drugs and arms trafficking. The proceeds are often shifted through anonymous shell companies. Each year criminals, terrorists and corrupt officials exploit companies and trusts to hide their true identity and launder hundreds of billions of dollars. That illicit money fuels more crime.

The G7 can help break this cycle by taking concrete action to follow the money behind crime and terrorism by improving transparency of beneficial ownership to show the real owner of a company. The group was loudly applauded in 2013, when it showed global leadership to tackle the misuse of offshore financial centres. Its commitments led to action by the G20, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, European Union and many others to prevent money laundering and help developing countries stem and recover the proceeds of corruption. Now, the G7 needs to do more. Beneficial ownership rules in some G7 countries are not working well enough. The FATF’s evaluations show that countries across the board have failed to prevent the abuse of companies and trusts or make real owners transparent. This is hugely damaging to the global fight against financial crime. The FATF is reviewing the global rules on beneficial ownership transparency. The G7 should be at the forefront of these discussions and commit to specific, progressive action to end loophole-riddled legislation. This would stop tax havens from dodging the rules and prevent unprincipled lawyers and accountants from helping crime flourish. globalgovernanceproject.org

By following the money that fuels the illegal wildlife trade, governments can protect endangered species from extinction and humans from the threat of zoonotic diseases”

281bn

generated through environmental crime each year

TACKLING CRIME ENABLERS Another related area where the G7 can lead is by promoting political engagement to tackle money laundering and terrorist financing. There is a lack of understanding, political will and capacity to tackle them, even though they enable serious crime and terrorism. This is reflected in the relative lack of political support for some of the FATF’s nine regional bodies. Many have insufficient resources and skills to address the illicit finance and terrorist threats in their regions. G7 members, both collectively and individually, need to push for increasing capacity-building around the world and ensure it is properly targeted and globalgovernanceproject.org

±ĹĹƚ±Ĭ ųĜŸå ĜĹ ŞųŅĀƋŸ from environmental crime

coordinated. Using diplomacy and soft power, G7 members can build political support and international cooperation to tackle the serious threats we face. The fear of being named on the FATF’s “grey list” should not be the driving force for tackling money laundering. We need national leaders and governments to engage actively with the issues and realise that by following the money, you can help root out criminal activity, protect your economy and help save the planet. This is the point of the FATF: to prevent and stop serious crime and terrorism by following the money. The G7 and other leading countries already have the tools to go after the illicit funds of criminals. It is time to use them.

MARCUS PLEYER Marcus Pleyer assumed the position of president of the Financial Action Task Force on 1 July 2020 for a two-year term. He serves as deputy director-general in Germany’s Ministry of Finance, and represents Germany on the boards of the Development Bank for Agribusiness and the Foundation for Financing the Disposal of Nuclear Waste. He served as vice-president of the FATF from July 2019 to June 2020, and led the German delegation from 2016 to 2019. @FATFNews @MarcusPleyer : www.fatf-gafi.org

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CRIME, CORRUPTION AND CONFLICT

Joined forces The G20 has publicly called for full implementation of FATF standards around the world, yet much more must be done to tackle money laundering and take the profits out of crime

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Jürgen Stock, secretarygeneral, INTERPOL

NTERPOL’s strategic engagement with the G7 dates back to 2016, during the presidency of Japan. INTERPOL briefed the G7’s Roma Lyon Group on the organisation’s operational capabilities, including I-24/7, its secure global communication network enabling the secure exchange of sensitive law enforcement information on crime and criminals. At that time, the Roma Lyon Group recognised and supported the unique role of INTERPOL in detecting and intercepting the cross-border movement of foreign terrorist fighters. Since then, INTERPOL has regularly briefed this important framework on matters related to globalgovernanceproject.org

global security at both the working and decision-making levels of the G7 interior ministers’ meetings. In parallel, G7 partners have been instrumental in supporting the implementation of INTERPOL initiatives around the world, specifically those aimed at ensuring access to I-24/7 to front-line officers at border crossing points in countries particularly affected by terrorist and transnational criminal activities. Here, the G7 interior ministers have also underlined the need for enhanced military-to-law enforcement data collection, transfer and analysis via INTERPOL. Holding details of nearly 60,000 foreign terrorist fighters – including information gathered from the conflict zones – INTERPOL is the world’s largest repository of such data, which could prove essential in identifying returnees. Many of the FTF profiles shared via INTERPOL include biometric data such as photos, fingerprints and DNA profiles. In total, INTERPOL’s 18 global databases contain more than 100 million records, which are checked nearly 10 million times every day. Since the G7 endorsed the INTERPOL Global Task Force on Human Trafficking in 2018, INTERPOL has coordinated operations around the world, leading to the rescue of thousands of victims of this multi-billiondollar form of modern day slavery. In just one week-long operation this year involving authorities in Africa and Europe, Operation Weka resulted in nearly 500 victims of human trafficking – including children – being rescued and some 195 offenders arrested. An operation in April targeting firearms trafficking across South America saw the arrest of almost 4,000 suspects across all 13 South American countries, with some 200,000 illicit firearms, parts, components, ammunition and explosives recovered. A PARALLEL CRIME PANDEMIC In 2020, the world found itself confronted by COVID-19, a public health crisis with far-reaching and deep effects on all aspects of life, including security. In fact, we have seen a parallel crime pandemic. There has been a significant increase in cyberthreats such as malware and ransomware as well as the sale of fake and counterfeit products linked to the pandemic including personal protective equipment and medicines. As vaccination programmes are rolled out around the world, we now see criminal organisations manufacturing and distributing fake vaccines. INTERPOL recently assisted in dismantling one such network. The organised crime threat, especially in relation to vaccines, combined with international terrorism and cybercrime, has created a criminal situation that is unprecedentedly dynamic, and requires a global response that INTERPOL is uniquely positioned to coordinate. INTERPOL’s assessment of the current global threat landscape and COVID-19–linked criminal and terrorist trends aligns with the policy priorities and security strategic objectives set by this year’s G7 UK presidency. globalgovernanceproject.org

JÜRGEN STOCK Jürgen Stock was appointed secretary-general of INTERPOL in 2014 and reappointed in 2019 to serve ± ŸåÏŅĹÚ ĀƴåěƼå±ų Ƌåųĵţ Stock was vice-president of :åųĵ±ĹƼűŸ 8åÚåų±Ĭ ųĜĵĜĹ±Ĭ {ŅĬĜÏå kþÏå Š Ueš üųŅĵ Ɩǈǈĉ to 2014, before which he held several leadership positions ƵĜƋĘĜĹ Ĭ±Ƶ åĹüŅųÏåĵåĹƋ ÚåƴåĬŅŞĵåĹƋ ĜĹŸƋĜƋƚƋĜŅĹŸţ @INTERPOL_SG : www.interpol.int

The organised crime threat has created an unprecedentedly dynamic criminal situation, requiring a global response that INTERPOL is uniquely positioned to coordinate”

These include strengthening resilience against online harms that have been driven by the pandemic, reducing serious and organised crime and supporting economic security, and championing global action to combat threats to national and border security. Although COVID-19 has presented new challenges, it has also made us more innovative, more resilient and more adaptive. Crime and criminals do not conform to confinement. No country and no region can fight crime and terrorism in isolation. As the world recovers from the pandemic, economic priorities will be established to support stabilisation. However, at the same time, support for law enforcement must not be left to one side. On behalf of the global law enforcement community, INTERPOL will continue to coordinate closely with the G7, G20 and all other multilateral forums to make the world a safer and more prosperous place. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

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The The he effectiveness effectiv e eff ff ffe ffectiv ect cttiiv iv ness ness challenge challeng c ch hal ha all lle leng ge e

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Finding out how the G7 can improve its compliance is possible thanks to data on commitment outcomes collected by the G7 Research Group

A Jessica Rapson, senior researcher, G7 Research Group 106

s the world presses on in its struggle against COVID-19, international institutions such as the G7 provide an optimal forum for coordinating resources and policy responses for tackling key global challenges. In its nearly 50-year existence, members of the G7 – or G8, as it was between 1998 and 2013 – have collectively produced 2,792 commitments to address issues as broad ranging as health infrastructure, development, trade and financial regulation. However, on

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average, only 61% of these commitments are met in full. Data on commitment outcomes collected by the G7 Research Group make it possible to quantitatively answer the question of whether there are ways the G7 can improve its effectiveness by increasing its compliance. FINDINGS Data on G7 commitment compliance can be analysed to determine if there are any trends that can be exploited to improve effectiveness. Using each G7 member’s globalgovernanceproject.org

Figure 1: )ýåÏƋ ŅĹ ŞųŅÆ±ÆĜĬĜƋƼ Ņü ÏŅĵŞĬĜ±ĹÏå ÆƼ ÏĘ±ų±ÏƋåųĜŸƋĜÏŸ Summit and commitment characterisitcs

commitment outcomes for 596 individual commitments (n = 4,896), the impacts of various summit and commitment characteristics were fitted to an ordinal logistic regression model. It showed that mentioning the values of democracy and human rights in the commitment text and holding a ministerial meeting on the relevant issue before a summit significantly increased the probability of compliance. Mentioning financial contributions significantly decreased the probability of compliance. There was also a small annual increase in the probability that a given commitment was met (see Figure 1). No effect was found for holding a ministerial meeting on the relevant issue after a summit, holding multiple ministerial meetings on the issue or holding multiple ministerial meetings closer to the date of the summit, having more overall commitments, having more commitments on the same issue, using highly binding language in the commitment text, mentioning other G7 summits, mentioning major international organisations or mentioning specific timetables. There was also variation in the probability of compliance across G7 members. The United Kingdom, European Union and Canada were more likely to meet commitments, and France, Japan, Italy and Russia were less likely. No significant effects were found for the United States or Germany (see Figure 2). Likewise, probabilities of success varied by the commitment’s issue. globalgovernanceproject.org

2,792 61%

ÏŅĵĵĜƋĵåĹƋŸ ŞųŅÚƚÏåÚ ÆƼ ƋĘå :ƀ ŸĜĹÏå ĜƋŸ ĜĹÏåŞƋĜŅĹ

Ņü ƋĘåŸå ÏŅĵĵĜƋĵåĹƋŸ ĵåƋ ĜĹ üƚĬĬ ŅĹ ±ƴåų±čå

Commitments related to information and communications technologies and to digitalisation were almost three times more likely to be met, the highest of any issue. Compliance was also more likely for commitments regarding macroeconomics, labour and employment, energy and regional security. Compliance was likely to be lower for commitments on democracy, food and agriculture, climate change, development, conflict prevention, crime and corruption, education, trade and gender (see Figure 3 – next page). CORE CHALLENGES Despite the large amount of available data, it is extremely difficult to determine whether the factors that increase the probability of G7 compliance do so through a legitimate causal process or whether such factors are merely correlated with other circumstances that induce compliance. For example, it is possible that ministerial meetings are held specifically because G7 members are invested in tackling a given policy issue. This focus on the policy area could mean that members would have a higher probability of complying with related commitments even if no ministerial meeting were held. The low overall explanatory power of the model is also troubling. Even when considering all the summit and commitment characteristics, member and commitment issues discussed in this study, only 5.6% of the overall variance in G7 compliance could be explained (McFadden’s pseudo R2). This suggests that the vast majority of compliance with

Figure 2: )ýåÏƋ ŅĹ ŞųŅÆ±ÆĜĬĜƋƼ Ņü ÏŅĵŞĬĜ±ĹÏå ÆƼ ĵåĵÆåų

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Figure 3: )ýåÏƋ ŅĹ ŞųŅÆ±ÆĜĬĜƋƼ Ņü ÏŅĵŞĬĜ±ĹÏå ÆƼ ĜŸŸƚå

G7 commitments may be determined by factors outside the control of the G7 itself, or may even be highly random. Nonetheless, there is hope for increasing G7 effectiveness. Of the variables examined, the most plausible causal relationship – even though confounds remain – is through holding a ministerial meeting on the relevant issue before the summit. This action may enable key ministers to coordinate policy goals and increase attentiveness to issues important to the G7. CONCLUSION Increasing G7 effectiveness by exploiting factors associated with higher probabilities of compliance is extremely difficult, as most performance is likely determined by factors outside the control of the institution. However, there remains a possibility that holding meetings with ministers on the relevant issue before a summit can increase the probability of compliance with G7 commitments. Full data and coding are available at https://github.com/rapsoj/ g7-compliance/tree/master/2019. 108

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Holding a ministerial meeting on the relevant issue before the summit may enable key ministers to coordinate policy goals”

JESSICA RAPSON Jessica Rapson is a senior researcher at the G7 and G20 Research Groups and a Master of Public Policy student at the University of Toronto. She is also a researcher at the Policy, Elections and Representation Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk ÏĘŅŅĬ Ņü :ĬŅÆ±Ĭ eý±ĜųŸ ±ĹÚ {ƚÆĬĜÏ {ŅĬĜÏƼţ Båų ųåŸå±ųÏĘ üŅÏƚŸåŸ ŞųåÚŅĵĜĹ±ĹƋĬƼ ŅĹ åĹƴĜųŅĹĵåĹƋ±ĬØ åÏŅĹŅĵĜÏ ±ĹÚ åƴĜÚåĹÏåěÆ±ŸåÚ ŞŅĬĜÏƼţ @g7_rg : www.g7.utoronto.ca

globalgovernanceproject.org

G7 Research Group In the rapidly crisis-afflicted world of the 21st century, the Group of Seven major market democracies serves as an effective centre of comprehensive global governance. G7 members – the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Canada and the European Union – contain many of the world’s critical capabilities and are committed to democratic values. At its annual summit and through a web of G7-centred institutions at the ministerial, official and multi-stakeholder levels, the G7 does much to meet global challenges, especially in the fields of security, sustainable development and economics. The G7 Research Group is a global network of scholars, students and professionals in the academic, research, media, business, non-governmental, governmental and intergovernmental communities who follow the work of the G7 and related institutions. The group’s mission is to serve as the world’s leading independent source of information, analysis and research on the G7. Founded in 1987, it is managed from Trinity College and the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. Professional Advisory Council members, Special Advisors, international affiliates and participating researchers together span the world. Through the G7 Research Group, Trinity’s John W. Graham Library has become the global repository of G7/8 documents, transcripts, media coverage, interviews, studies, essays, memorabilia and artifacts.

The G7 Information Centre at

www.g7.utoronto.ca The online G7 Information Centre (www. g7.utoronto.ca) contains the world’s most comprehensive and authoritative collection of information and analysis on the G7. The G7 Research Group assembles, verifies and posts documents from the meetings leading up to and at each summit, the available official documentation of all past summits and ministerial meetings (in several G7 languages), scholarly writings and policy analyses, research studies, scholarship information, links to related sites and the “background books” for each summit now published by GT Media and the Global Governance Project (globalgovernanceproject.org). The website contains the G7 Research Group’s regular reports on G7 members’ compliance with their summit commitments, as well as other research reports.

BOOKS ON THE G7 AND RELATED ISSUES FROM ROUTLEDGE Accountability for Effectiveness in Global Governance

The Global Governance of Climate Change

Marina Larionova and John Kirton, eds.

John Kirton and Ella Kokotsis

The European Union in the G8

The New Economic Diplomacy

Marina Larionova, ed.

Nicholas Bayne and Stephen Woolcock

The G8-G20 Relationship in Global Governance

The G8 System and the G20 Peter I. Hajnal

Marina Larionova and John Kirton, eds.

G7 RESEARCH GROUP University of Toronto, 1 Devonshire Place, Room 209N, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3K7 Canada åĬåŞĘŅĹå +1-416-946-8953 • )ěĵ±ĜĬ g7@utoronto.ca • ƵĜƋƋåų @g7_rg www.g7.utoronto.ca

A STRONGER G7 SYSTEM

With a change in administration, the US will prove to be a more collaborative and conciliatory partner at the G7 Cornwall Summit

Christopher Sands, director, Canada Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

fter 2020 anything normal seems like an improvement. The United States hosted the G7 in a year when COVID-19 became a global pandemic, global economic performance suffered and more Americans participated in the November federal election than ever before. That election brought a change in leadership, and at the start of 2021 US president Joseph Biden declared, “America is back!” Leaders in the other G7 capitals greeted the new administration with a collective sigh of relief. And yet, given the extraordinary events of the past year, there is much to praise about US leadership in the G7 in 2020. At an emergency meeting by conference call on 3 March, led by US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve

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America is back. Now what? chair Jerome Powell, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors pledged fiscal and monetary policy support to their economies to mitigate the economic damage from what was then only beginning to be recognised as a global pandemic. A US-hosted videoconference summit followed, at which G7 leaders pledged a coordinated policy response to COVID-19, and instructed G7 health ministers to meet weekly to share information on public health and the spread of the virus. Additionally, the Think 7 summit of scholars, hosted virtually by my institution, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, found considerable common ground among G7 members. It is not surprising, then, that as British prime minister Boris Johnson took

charge as the 2021 G7 host, he expressed optimism that G7 members could work together to overcome COVID-19 and support economic recovery. Johnson even borrowed Biden’s slogan to ‘build back better’ as the G7 theme. Now led by British chancellor Rishi Sunak, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors adopted an ambitious plan to foster the economic recovery of vulnerable countries, which extended this commitment beyond the G7 membership. PRESSING ISSUES Echoing a campaign pledge from then-candidate Biden to convene a ‘Summit of Democracies’, Johnson extended invitations to Australia, India, Korea and South Africa to attend G7 meetings on the strength of shared globalgovernanceproject.org

AlexiRosenfeld / Shutterstock.com

G7 leaders may have had an easier time ignoring Trump’s harsh rhetoric than they will the polite pressure from Biden, but it is America that is back"

democratic values. Since January, the United States has joined the rest of the G7 in statements on the build-up of Russian forces in Crimea threatening Ukraine, human rights violations in Tigray (an area of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea), concern over China’s efforts to erode democracy in Hong Kong, the military coup in Myanmar, and the arrest and detention of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny. Each of these showed remarkable G7 unity, with the United States on board. One priority of the 2021 Cornwall Summit is to promote joint action on climate change. On 1–12 November in Glasgow, Britain, with the support of fellow G7 member Italy, will co-host the United Nations Climate Summit, which was postponed last year due to globalgovernanceproject.org

the pandemic. Johnson hopes to use G7 environment ministers’ and the summit meetings to build forward momentum for Glasgow – an idea endorsed by the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Biden administration has not only supported this push, but has also hosted the leaders of 40 countries for the virtual Leaders Summit on Climate, coinciding with Earth Day in April. That meeting promoted the goal of net zero emissions by 2050 and a financial plan to assist developing countries to transition their economies away from dependence on fossil fuels. The Trump administration’s confrontational diplomacy with allies overshadowed US engagement with international forums such as the G7, which former president Donald Trump and many in the United States judged by results rather than rhetoric. US leadership and engagement as part of the G7 in 2021 are more cooperative and conciliatory, but, given the scale and urgency of global problems such as climate change, the pandemic, multiplying threats to democracy and human rights, and the need to restore economic growth, the Biden administration will likely continue to insist that the G7 and other summits and forums produce tangible progress towards shared goals. The 2020 US election reflected the deep divisions among Americans in a close presidential race, and a narrowly divided Congress. The Biden administration won a mandate to re-engage in global diplomacy and this has been welcomed by other G7 leaders. But voters in the United States have given international summits and institutions a second chance to prove themselves, not unconditional support. G7 leaders may have had an easier time ignoring Trump’s harsh rhetoric than they will the polite pressure from Biden, but it is America that is back, and as ever America is a demanding ally.

CHRISTOPHER SANDS Christopher Sands is director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a senior research professor at the Johns Hopkins University Nitze School of Advanced International Studies in Washington DC. From 2012 until 2017 he was a visiting professor at Western Washington University, and taught in the ÏĘŅŅĬ Ņü {ƚÆĬĜÏ eý±ĜųŸ ±ĹÚ ƋĘå ÏĘŅŅĬ of International Service at American University from 2005 to 2012. He was also a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute from 2007 to 2016. @sandsatwilson : wilsoncenter.org

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A STRONGER G7 SYSTEM

The third consecutive attendence for Australia demonstrates the country's global importance and offers it the chance to collaborate on subtantive matters

Aspirations and expectations: Australia’s participation in the G7

Caitlin Byrne, ÙěŲäÎƊńŲ×ƈ:ŲěýƊėƈ Asia Institute

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globalgovernanceproject.org

or the third consecutive year Australia has a seat at the G7 table. It’s a big deal. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed he will attend the Cornwall Summit – invited by UK prime minister Boris Johnson – in person. It is symbolically significant for the self-proclaimed “regional power with global interests”, even as a guest. Bringing Australia shoulder to shoulder with global decision-makers, the G7 invitation offers a positive reflection of the country’s standing. In substance, it offers Morrison the chance to advance his views on pressing issues. And based on past experience, he will likely be an active participant. But it also puts a spotlight on Australian policy, particularly on climate change – a priority issue for the UK host. Morrison appears unfazed. He has already made the point that he is “not one who rushes for the plane to attend summits. That’s not my style. I’d much prefer to be back working on issues domestically … While these events are necessary, my focus is always on Australia’s national interest at home.” Yet, Morrison is no stranger to summits. He recently participated in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as well as US president Joe Biden’s much anticipated Leaders Summit on Climate. But the UK-hosted G7 summit is particularly significant. First, the summit’s label as a “D10 meeting of the world’s leading democracies” resonates with Morrison’s broader foreign policy aspirations. And it explains why invitations have also been extended to India, Korea and South Africa. Johnson’s intent to broaden the G7 as a ‘club of democracies’ makes it attractive to Australia. Alert to an emerging polarisation between authoritarian regimes and liberal democracies, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, Morrison has expressed an interest in looking towards opportunities for like-minded countries to “join together to push for freedom.” DIPLOMACY AND RECOVERY Just before the G7 foreign and development ministers meeting in May, Australian foreign minister Marise Payne tweeted about Australia’s intent to “discuss critical issues on advancing open societies and promoting global democratic values”. The implicit agenda, of course, relates to China’s increasingly dominant role in the region. Over the past five years Australia’s bilateral relationship with this global powerhouse has deteriorated sharply, a trend likely to continue. Australia’s vocal stance on issues ranging from foreign interference to the origins of COVID-19 have been met with the ire of China’s wolf warrior diplomats and accompanied by targeted economic punishments. Australia will look to the G7 to build likeminded support to push back against a more aggressive China. Second, the opportunity to talk through issues of COVID-19 response and recovery offers Morrison an opportunity to put concerns of equitable vaccine distribution firmly on the agenda. Australia’s competence in managing the pandemic has recently been overshadowed by a lagging national vaccine roll-out globalgovernanceproject.org

programme. The government blames much of that on EU measures blocking supply. Morrison claims that recent EU blocks on AstraZeneca supplies have hindered Australia’s ability to provide much-needed vaccines to neighbouring Pacific island states, including Papua New Guinea. This issue may well draw controversy, not least because EU members publicly reject Australia’s claims. G7 leaders will likely devote greater attention to assisting India in its desperate plight to manage its current devastating COVID-19 outbreak. Here, Australia will no doubt attract criticism for closing its borders and imposing criminal charges against anyone, including Australian citizens, who try to enter the country from India. On climate change, as his legacy issue, Johnson has made no secret that the G7 summit is an important diplomatic milestone for climate action on the road to the COP26 Glasgow summit he will co-host in November. Following Biden’s recent climate summit, the expectation that G7 and guests will lift their climate ambitions is high. Already the EU, UK, US, Japan and Korea have declared their intent to reach net zero emissions by 2050, with many setting targets for 2030. Australia’s policy remains vague. Relying on rhetoric that speaks to technology-led solutions aimed at delivering jobs, Australia is an increasingly obvious outlier on climate action. Yet Australia may well be afforded a wide berth in the hope that Morrison will move towards an explicit commitment to achieve net zero emissions by Glasgow. In short, the G7 agenda poses a mixed bag CAITLIN BYRNE of opportunity and challenge for Australia. Despite his ambivalence towards global Caitlin Byrne is director of the Griffith summits, Morrison, like other leaders, Asia Institute at Griffith University in will undoubtedly relish the opportunity Queensland. She is a fellow of the to connect personally with counterparts Australian Institute for International Affairs through the formal dialogues and informal and faculty fellow of the University of corridor conversations. The potential for Southern California’s Centre for Public sideline catch-ups with the UK, as well as Diplomacy. Byrne’s research focuses on with Quad partners, while emphasising the Australian foreign policy and diplomacy strategic significance of the Indo-Pacific with a special interest in Australia's will be of particular interest. Substantive engagement in the Asia-Pacific region. issues aside, this opportunity for personal interaction after a year of virtual @caitebyrne engagement will be the most important :ƈƳƳƳŢČŲěûûěƊėŢäÙƙŢ°ƙw°ŷě°ĚěĸŷƊěƊƙƊä aspect of Australia’s G7 participation. 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

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The digitalisation of diplomacy threatens to undermine the elements of summitry that have made the G7 successful in the past, which, at its essence, is about people and relationships – and the opportunities that arise when leaders come together

Tristen Naylor, fellow in international relations, London School of Economics

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G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT — 2021

globalgovernanceproject.org

he COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted every facet of life, with summitry no exception. Last year’s G7 meeting was the first year in the group’s history that its leaders did not meet in person. The club adapted and moved its activities online, enabling the G7 leaders to discuss the urgent concerns of the pandemic and the economic crisis it ushered in. While the formal business of the club could still be conducted, much of what gives the G7 added value in global governance was undercut by going virtual. As we begin to consider the post-pandemic future and the continued evolution of the G7, it is important to recognise that, despite some advantages, the digitalisation of diplomacy could actually undermine the very elements of summitry that have made the G7 successful in the past, threatening the viability of the club in the 21st century. Much is gained in the move online – the complexities of scheduling meetings among world leaders are reduced, and no time is lost to travel or energy sapped by jet lag. It is, in all, easier and cheaper to conduct diplomacy online, and in many ways the move is an obvious next step in the advance of communications technologies, following revolutions in diplomatic practice prompted by the advent of the telephone and the telegraph. When it comes to the personal summitry that typifies the G7 and the complex global challenges to which it is directed, however, no matter how good online meeting platforms are, there is no substitute for getting people together in a room. What makes the G7 effective in global governance cannot be reproduced online. In 1975, French president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing envisaged the G7 as an intimate affair where the leaders of the advanced, industrialised economies would assemble to address shared problems. Giscard proposed a meeting where the leaders alone would gather, temporarily freed from the gaze of the media, the tinkering of bureaucracies, and the demands of parliaments and political parties. Although the annual event has evolved, the core of what gives the G7 its success has endured: a retreat for those at the apex of their political hierarchies to engage in free and frank exchange, unencumbered by the usual constraints of their offices. REIMPOSED CONSTRAINTS Online meetings reimpose many of those constraints. What renders summitry valuable in the diplomatic toolbox is

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fundamentally premised on physicality. Most damaging in the move online is the loss of ‘inter-moments’ – the informal, apparently unscripted happenings between formal proceedings at summits. These are the quiet chats in the corner of a room, the impromptu conversations between meetings, the off-the-cuff exchanges during breaks. Although they might seem insignificant, any practitioner will stress that it is on the sidelines of summits where much of the action really takes place. It is in inter-moments that relationships are built and affirmed, that negotiating positions are sussed out, that favours are asked and that ideas are mooted. Moreover, someone online is always ‘on’ – always being recorded, leaving no room for plausible deniability, or room for privately building rapport and trust. All this is nothing less than the bedrock of diplomatic practice. Yet, without any quiet corners in cyberspace, this is all lost in the shift online. For the online G7 meetings held this past year, gone are the informal chats on the margins. Even formal summit sessions have been largely reduced to the reading

of prepared statements, eliminating frank discussions and leaving no room for substantive engagement over leaders’ positions and pressures. The type of summit that Giscard envisaged has been hollowed out. As the G7 meets this year at Cornwall, the leaders’ attention rightly focuses on the complex challenges of COVID-19, climate change and economic crisis; but the club must also examine its own form and structure, charting its future for the years and decades to come. How the G7 works is as critical to its success, as are questions about who is included or what issues it focuses its attention on. We have learned from COVID-19 that no amount of phone calls or video chats or socially distanced anything can really make up for not being together. The same is true for summitry, which at its essence is about people and relationships. Meetings can still be had and policies can still be debated online, but what gives the G7 its real, added value is fundamentally and solely to be found in the opportunities that arise when people are physically brought together.

TRISTEN NAYLOR Tristen Naylor is a fellow in international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science. An expert in international diplomacy, his most recent book provides a new history of the G7 and G20 summits. He was previously a lecturer in diplomatic studies at the University of Oxford and served as a foreign policy advisor to the Government of Canada. He is a recipient of the Canadian Public Service Award of Excellence. ƈÃ ŲěŷƊäĸb°ƺīńŲ 2021 — G7 UK: THE CORNWALL SUMMIT

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