CONFRONTING
HIDDEN THREATS TO SUSTAINABILITY State of the World 2015 a visual guide
The Seeds of Modern Threats Humanity is slowly coming to grips with the growing reality of a destabilized climate. Even as scientists and others shed light on the likely repercussions, such as sea-level rise, droughts, and superstorms, many challenges remain undetected or underappreciated. The world now needs to adopt solutions that fundamentally change systems of production and consumption— solutions that can adapt to the still-hidden threats to sustainability.
Chapters | Emerging Issues Energy, Credit, and the End of Growth Nathan John Hagens The Trouble with Growth Peter A. Victor and Tim Jackson Avoiding Stranded Assets Ben Caldecott Mounting Losses of Agricultural Resources Gary Gardner The Oceans: Resilience at Risk Katie Auth Whose Arctic Is It? Heather Exner-Pirot Emerging Diseases from Animals Catherine C. Machalaba, Elizabeth H. Loh, Peter Daszak, and William B. Karesh Migration as a Climate Adaptation Strategy Franรงois Gemenne
Emerging Issues | Nathan John Hagens
Nathan John Hagens is a former hedge fund manager who teaches human ecology at the University of Minnesota. He cofounded and directs the Bottleneck Foundation, and was lead editor of theoildrum.com.
Energy, Credit, and the End of Growth Could expensive energy spell the end of economic growth and undermine our welfare?
“We urgently need institutions and populations to begin to prepare,
T
he prosperous economies
must be costly enough to be
and the culture of growth
profitable for producers, yet
physically and psychologically, for
that industrialized nations take
cheap enough to be affordable
a world with the same or less each
for normal, and that most other
to consumers. Higher energy
year instead of more—a mindset
nations aspire to, rest on cheap
prices are needed to support
that is not in our collective psyches
(mainly fossil) energy. But, as
ongoing fossil energy develop-
or even imaginations.”
Nathan John Hagens explains,
ment, but higher prices also
we already have tapped the
mean economic malaise and
easy energy stores, so the push
rising debt. Only a fundamen-
for continued growth is taking
tal rethinking of the purpose
increasing amounts of energy
of economies—away from
and investment money, leaving
perpetual growth—can address
less for every other activity.
the conundrum of increasingly
Moreover, energy prices are
expensive energy.
walking a tightrope: energy
We have two major, interrelated problems. The physical one is that we are hitting limits to growth thresholds. The social one is that modern democracies struggle to acknowledge or even understand these risks.
It is possible—and indeed desirable—to move public policy objectives away from the pursuit of economic growth, and toward specific goals that are more directly related to the well-being of humans and other species.
Peter A. Victor is a professor of environmental studies at York University. Tim Jackson is a professor of sustainable development at the University of Surrey and also an ESRC professorial fellow on Prosperity and Sustainability in the Green Economy (PASSAGE).
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Emerging Issues | Peter A. Victor and Tim Jackson
The Trouble with Growth Is never-ending economic growth a threat that is hidden in plain view?
conomic growth drives most national goal. Growth is widely
“Our preoccupation with economic
environmental problems,
regarded as inevitable and
growth often has impeded action
and it has produced a world
indispensable, but as a matter
on issues that really will improve
in which human activities
of national policy it is barely
human well-being and the prospects
have grown too large for the
50 years old. Fortunately, as
for all life on
planet to accommodate them
Peter A. Victor and Tim Jackson
trouble with growth.”
sustainably. Forests are scalped,
argue, an economy that is not
rivers run dry, species are go-
driven by growth of material
ing extinct, and humans are
throughput—yet that still offers
changing the climate, all driven
adequate employment and
by the pursuit of growth. Yet
reduces inequality and environ-
few recognize that growth itself
mental impact—is achievable.
needs to be abandoned as a
Earth. This is the
Ben Caldecott is a program director at the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, where he founded and directs the Stranded Assets Programme. He also is an adviser to The Prince of Wales’ International Sustainability Unit.
Emerging Issues | Ben Caldecott
Avoiding Stranded Assets Can we avoid locking our investments into unsustainable economic activities?
“Visionary management of policies, companies, and investments is needed
C
ontinued investments in a
Further investing in them—and
fossil fuel-centered energy
thus enlarging the carbon “bub-
to ensure that new investments
system—and especially in such
ble”—exposes not only energy
are consistent with environmental
forms of “extreme energy” as
companies and fossil fuel ex-
health and resilience, and that
tar sands, Arctic oil deposits,
porters to incalculable risk, but
economies are weaned, smoothly and
shale oil and gas, and moun-
also pension funds, municipal
efficiently, off investments that are
taintop-removal coal—will lock
authorities, and others who
harmful to sustainability.”
societies onto a dead-end path.
invest in such companies for
Scientists are warning that the
long-term financial returns.
bulk of the world’s proven fossil
Absent alternative policies, the
fuel resources can never be
world may confront an unpalat-
touched if the world wants to
able choice between climate
avoid runaway climate change.
chaos and economic doom.
An analysis of stranded assets—such as investments in fossil fuel extraction, production, and transport infrastructure— can help to reveal the potential profile of a transition path forward.
Huge efficiency gains are available to farmers, food processors, businesses, and consumers. Taking advantage of these opportunities can help to ensure that food is available to the entire human family this century.
Emerging Issues | Gary Gardner
Mounting Losses of Agricultural Resources Gary Gardner is a senior fellow and director of publications at the Worldwatch Institute.
L
Could poor harvests and political tensions disrupt our fragile food supply?
oss or degradation of key
threatening food security. Gary
“conserving the very base of food
agricultural resources—
Gardner argues that a food
production—the land, water,
especially land, water, and a
import strategy reduces pres-
and climate that make crop growth
stable climate—is leading to
sure on agricultural resources
possible—is essential to ensure that
a global agricultural system in
in many countries, but also
the world’s farmers continue to
which more countries depend
renders importing countries
produce enough food for everyone.”
on international markets for
vulnerable to supply disrup-
basic food supplies. As a result,
tions caused by poor harvests,
“land grabbing”—the purchase
political manipulation, or other
or lease of agricultural land by
factors beyond their control.
foreign interests—is surging,
Emerging Issues | Katie Auth
The Oceans: Resilience at Risk
Katie Auth is a former research associate at the Worldwatch Institute whose current work centers on climate-resilient development strategies and international cooperation.
Are we pushing beyond the limits of the oceans’ capacities?
“Taking urgent and concerted action to improve ocean health is an imperative, not because saving whales
M
ost humans spend little
sink for human-caused carbon
time in or on the oceans,
emissions and the heat they
but our lives are profoundly
trap in the atmosphere, but the
and coral reefs are not worthy
shaped by their condition. That
rate of absorption of both heat
pursuits in and of themselves (they
condition is increasingly dire.
and emissions may be slow-
are)... but because our livelihoods
Overfishing is compromising
ing. And carbon absorption is
and our lives depend on the sea.”
the oceans’ ability to supply
changing the acidity of ocean
the protein on which roughly
waters, which in turn imperils
3 billion people depend. Ocean
vital marine organisms and
waters also function as a major
even the marine food web itself.
As our negative impact on the oceans has grown, so has our understanding of the myriad ways in which the health of the marine environment determines our own.
Although most people see the Arctic through a lens of either climate change or economic opportunity, we should be careful about applying a standard of environmental protection in other regions that we would not accept in our own.
Heather ExnerPirot is strategist for outreach and indigenous engagement in the College of Nursing at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada, and managing editor of The Arctic Yearbook.
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Emerging Issues | Heather Exner-Pirot
Whose Arctic Is It? Indigenous peoples and other northerners have the greatest stake in protecting the Arctic—but are their voices being heard?
he Arctic is a showcase
access to oil and other resourc-
“Seeing the Arctic exclusively as an
for the effects of climate
es. But, as Heather Exner-Pirot
ecosystem in need of preservation—
change, especially with the
explores, nearly unnoticed is the
and not as a homeland where people
alarming decline in the extent
struggle of Arctic peoples to en-
have a right to live and work—
of summer sea ice and its
sure that the fate of the region
imposes a hidden threat to the long-
amplifying effects on warming.
they call home is largely in their
term sustainability of the region.”
The region is an area of conten-
hands, not in those of southern-
tion as well, as the expansion of
ers seeking to impose their own
open water entices Arctic na-
political agendas.
tions with the prospect of easier
Emerging Issues | Catherine C. Machalaba, Elizabeth H. Loh, Peter Daszak, and William B. Karesh
Catherine C. Machalaba, Elizabeth H. Loh, Peter Daszak, and William B. Karesh are affiliated with the EcoHealth Alliance. This chapter is adapted from William B. Karesh et al., “Ecology of Zoonoses: Natural and Unnatural Histories” (The Lancet, December 2012).
Emerging Diseases from Animals Is human disruption of natural systems putting our own health and well-being at risk?
“new strategies for dealing with
H
uman activities disrupt
land-use changes bring animals
ecological systems world-
and humans together, as live-
wide, increasing the likelihood
stock raising becomes intensi-
once again can learn to live in
that infectious disease will
fied, and as the use of antibiot-
balance with the natural ecology
spread from animals to humans, ics in animals increases. The
that supports us.”
as has already occurred with
authors contend that, despite
the Ebola virus and HIV/AIDS.
rising attention to high-profile
Scientists estimate that more
pandemics like Ebola, neither
than 60 percent of the 400 new
governments nor publics ap-
infectious diseases in humans
preciate that such outbreaks
that emerged in the past 70
are emblematic of a systemic,
years were of animal origin.
global problem.
[emerging animal-borne diseases] offer the possibility that
... humans
And this threat is increasing as
In the past few decades, accelerating global changes have led to the emergence of a striking number of newly described infectious diseases from animals.
Our paramount goal should be to enable people’s right to choose whether to migrate or stay. Yet unabated climate change is likely to result in the loss of this freedom.
Emerging Issues | François Gemenne François Gemenne is executive director of the Politics of the Earth program at Sciences Po in Paris and a senior research associate with the University of Liège in Belgium.
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Migration as a Climate Adaptation Strategy Will we be ready to respond to migrating communities as our environment changes?
opulation displacements
today, but they could have
“Whether climate-induced migration
due to climate change and
deeply destabilizing economic
will be an adaptation failure or
other adverse environmental
and political consequences in
success depends not only on climate
developments could undermine
the future. François Gemenne
impacts, but—most importantly—
the social fabric of affected
argues that timely adaptation
on the policy choices that are
societies as well as trigger grow- measures—including suping competition over resources,
port for migrants as well as for
jobs, and social services in
those who lack the resources
receiving areas. The speed,
to move—can help individu-
direction, and extent of such
als and societies at large cope
population movements remain
with the repercussions of a
largely the stuff of conjecture
changing climate.
made today.”
These threats are hidden because they are often overlooked or underappreciated.
C
omplete environmental impacts are not
But for every hidden threat, there also exists
always readily visible—they are camou-
a hidden solution—which rarely appears in
flaged and multiplied by discontinuities, syn-
the mainstream media. We have the oppor-
ergisms, feedback loops, and cascades. And
tunity to expose these threats and to commit
the manner in which environmental impacts
to an ethic of stewardship, robust citizenship,
translate into the social and economic spheres
and a systems approach to addressing the
further produces unexpected consequences.
challenges that we face.
State of the World is available for purchase at www.worldwatch.org/bookstore/state-of-the-world
We think we understand environmental damage: pollution, water scarcity, a warming world. But these problems are just the tip of the iceberg. Deeper issues include food insecurity, financial assets drained of value by environmental damage, and a rapid rise in diseases of animal origin. These and other problems are among the underreported consequences of an unsustainable global system. In State of the World 2015, the flagship publication of the Worldwatch Institute, experts explore hidden threats to sustainability and how to address them. Eight key issues are addressed in depth, along with the central question of how we can develop resilience to these and other shocks. With the latest edition of State of the World, the authorities at Worldwatch bring to light challenges we can no longer afford to ignore.
State of the World is available for purchase at www.worldwatch.org/bookstore/state-of-the-world
Founded in 1974 by farmer and economist Lester Brown, Worldwatch was the first independent research institute devoted to the analysis of global environmental concerns. Worldwatch quickly became recognized by opinion leaders around the world for its accessible, fact-based analysis of critical global issues. Worldwatch develops innovative solutions to intractable problems, emphasizing a blend of government leadership, private sector enterprise, and citizen action that can make a sustainable future a reality. 1400 16th Street NW | Suite 430 | Washington, DC 20036 www.worldwatch.org | +1 (202) 745-8092