Housing Need and Demand Assessment by GCVSDPA

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Market Partnership Housing Need and Demand Assessment November 2010

HNDA W

Contents Chapter

Page

FOREWORD ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1

INTRODUCTION Policy Context Purpose of the HNDA Report Structure

DEVELOPING THE HNDA PROCESS Working in Partnership: Our Remit Structures Engaging ‘wider network’ stakeholders Quality Control Approval of the HNDA Monitoring and Review

OVERVIEW OF THE HNDA MODEL Developing the HNDA model The model and its components: an overview Validating the model

MARKET COMMENTARY Economic Context Demographic Context Social Context The Housing Market Other Key Drivers of Change Conclusion

THE GCV HOUSING MARKET AREA FRAMEWORK Deriving the Housing Market Area framework

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN THE GCV AREA Introduction Population Change by component Population Change by Age Household Change

HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND / NEED COMPARISON Introduction Planning Periods Comparison of Housing Supply and Demand/Need Overview Household Tenure Projections to 2016, 2020 and 2025 Tenure Split Household Projection Scenarios Household Tenure Projection Summary Results Projected Tenure Change – Validation of Results Existing Need Comparisons of Supply with Demand/Need Comparison of Private Sector Demand and Supply Comparison of Affordable Sector Supply and Need Intermediate sector

TA01 TA02 TA03 TA04 TA05 TA06

HOUSEHOLD GROUPS WITH SPECIFIC HOUSING REQUIREMENTS Context Families Young People Older People People with a Disability Minority Ethnic Households Asylum Seekers and Refugees Migrant Workers from the European Union Students Homeless People Domestic Abuse Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Religion/Belief Gypsies/Travellers Travelling Showpeople

TECHNICAL APPENDICES A Housing Market Area Framework Current Housing Supply/ Stock Profile Gross Current/Backlog Need Affordability Study House Price Analysis Review of Supply and Demand/ Need for Housing

153

List of Tables/Figures Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2

Core Outputs Process Checklist

Chapter 2 Figure 2.1

GCV HMP Structure

Chapter 3 Figure 3.1 Figure 3.2

Overview of the HNDA Model Location of Core Outputs within the HNDA

Chapter 4 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 Figure 4.7 Figure 4.8 Figure 4.9 Figure 4.10 Figure 4.11 Figure 4.12 Figure 4.13 Figure 4.14 Figure 4.15 Figure 4.16 Figure 4.17

Employment profile by Local Authority Employment profile by Local Authority Percentage of local authority datazones within 15% most deprived Distribution of 15% most deprived datazones Percentage of population that are income deprived Percentage of working age population that are employment deprived Percentage of children in low income households Disability Living Allowance Claimants per 100,000 Average Life Expectancy Tenure Structure (% households) House Sales (SNS) Lower quartile prices (SNS) Median prices (SNS) New Build Mean Prices (SNS) Average house prices, 2009-2010 (Sasines) Growth in average house prices, 2004 to 2010 (Sasines) Lower quartile house prices vs low income (Sasines)

Figure 4.18 Figure 4.19

Percentage of households travelling to work by car (SNS) Percentage of households without access to a car (SNS)

Chapter 5 Figure 5.1

GCV Housing Market Area Framework

Chapter 6 Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2 Figure 6.3 Figure 6.4 Figure 6.5 Figure 6.6

Figure 6.7 Figure 6.8 Figure 6.9 Figure 6.10 Figure 6.11 Figure 6.12 Figure 6.13 Figure 6.14 Figure 6.15 Figure 6.16 Figure 6.17 Figure 6.18 Figure 6.19 Figure 6.20 Figure 6.21 Figure 6.22 Figure 6.23 Figure 6.24 Figure 6.25 Figure 6.26 Figure 6.27 Figure 6.28 Chapter 7 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 Figure 7.3 Figure 7.4

Estimated and Projected Population – HNDA scenarios Estimated and Projected Net Migration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 Net Migration 2007/08 by Origin for 8 Council areas in Glasgow and Clyde Valley Area Net Migration 2007/08 by Age for 8 Council areas in Glasgow and Clyde Valley Area Estimated and Projected Natural Change Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 Estimated and Projected Net Migration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 - Comparison HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections Estimated and Projected Natural Change Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 - Comparison HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections Estimated and Projected Population Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 - Comparison HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections Estimated and Projected Annual Population Change by Council area Change 2001 to 2008 in Natural Change for 8 Council areas in Glasgow and Clyde Valley Area Estimated/Projected Population (‘000s) in GCV Area by Age Estimated/Projected Population (‘000s) in GCV Area by Age, without rise in pensionable age Population GCV area Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate for 1991 with 2008 Population GCV area Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate 2008 with projection 2025 Population Change 2001-2008 by Age Profile Cluster of Sub Areas in the GCV area Population Glasgow Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate 2008 with projection 2025 Population Rest GCV Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate 2008 with projection 2025 Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Number of Children by Council area Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Working Age Population by Council area Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Pensionable Age Population by Council area Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Population Age 75+ by Council area Estimated and Projected Annual Change of Population in Communal Establishments Estimated and Projected Households - HNDA scenarios Comparison of estimated and projected annual change in households 2001-2008 Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Households by Type - GCV area Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Households by Age of HRP - GCV area Estimated and Projected Households Glasgow and Clyde Valley area 1991 to 2025 Comparison of HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections Estimated and Projected Annual Household Change by Council area

Summary of Household Projections for GCV Area 2008-25 Current Housing Need: Total Need and Those Able/Unable to Address Needs in the Market (Upper Estimate) - LA level Projection C2 High Affordability - Comparison of private supply and demand (including Lower Estimate Backlog Need) at 2020 Projection C2 High Affordability - Comparison of private supply and demand (including Lower Estimate Backlog Need) at 2025

Figure 7.5 Chapter 8 Table 8.4.1 Table 8.4.2 Table 8.5.1 Table 8.5.2 Table 8.5.3 Table 8.5.4 Table 8.5.5 Table 8.5.6 Table 8.6.1 Table 8.6.2 Table 8.6.3 Table 8.6.4 Table 8.6.5 Table 8.8.1 Table 8.8.2 Table 8.8.3 Table 8.10.1 Table 8.10.2 Table 8.10.3 Table 8.10.4 Table 8.10.5 Table 8.10.6 Table 8.11.1 Table 8.11.2 Table 8.13.1 Table 8.14.1 Table 8.14.2 Table 8.14.3 Table 8.14.4 Table 8.14.5 Table 8.14.6 Table 8.14.7 Table 8.15.1

Summary of GCV Area Housing Need Requirement in Accordance with Housing Needs Assessment Supply/Need Comparison Model 2008-2025 Housing for older people, March 2009 Care homes for older people: homes and places by local authority, March 2009 Limiting long-term illness [LLTI] or disability by local authority area, 2007-2008 Housing for people with physical disabilities by local authority, March 2009/ 2010 Care homes for adults with physical disabilities: homes and places by local authority, March 2009 Care homes for adults with mental health problems: homes and places by local authority, March 2009 Adults with learning disabilities known to local authorities, and those living in their own tenancy, 2007 Care homes for adults with learning disabilities: homes and places by local authority, March 2009 Inter-censal change in Lanarkshire, 1991 – 2001 Minority ethnic population 2001 Minority ethnic households 2001 Households including a person with a limiting long term illness [LLTI], by minority ethnic group, 2001 Tenure of minority ethnic households, 2001 NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK, 2002/03 – 2009/10 NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals by world area of origin, 2009-10 NINo registrations to nationals of EU accession states, cumulative total 2002-2010 Homelessness statistics, GCV area, 2009-10 Homeless applications by household type, 2009-10 Main reason for applying for assistance, 2009-10 [%] Types of prevention activity undertaken, 2009-10 Summary of total homelessness prevention activity by GCV local authorities, 2009-10 Homelessness applications where a household member reported sleeping rough the night before applying for assistance, 2009-10 Households presenting as homeless as a result of domestic abuse, 2009-10 Accommodation provided to women’s aid groups Current religion of people [%], 2001 Gypsy/traveller households by local authority and type of site [July 2008, January 2009] Gypsy/traveller households by local authority and type of site [5 year and 8 year mean] Gypsy/traveller households on encampments at time of count [Summer & Winter] Use of encampment locations: January 2008 – July 2008 – January 2009 Council site provision for gypsies/travellers, 2009 Private site occupancy, January 2007 – January 2009 Estimate of need for year-round pitch provision in GCV area 2010 – 2015: supply and demand comparison Provision for travelling showpeople, 2010

Foreword This is the first comprehensive Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) for the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Area – covering all housing tenures across the eight constituent Council areas. Its preparation has required new ways of joint working to integrate planning and housing perspectives, resulting in the establishment of the GCV Housing Market Partnership (HMP). The HNDA has to serve a range of purposes. As well as being a Background Report (BR10) to the Strategic Development Plan Main Issues Report, it also provides important supporting evidence for the eight local authorities’ Local Housing Strategies and Local Development Plans. Meeting these different requirements has involved complex analysis, at different geographical scales and different projection periods, both in terms of projected demand for private or market housing (owner occupied and private rented), and projected need for affordable housing (social rented and intermediate sector). A key component of this modelling is the assessment of affordability as a means of identifying the tenure of projected households. Independent consultants were appointed to undertake this specialised component of the analysis, in the process developing an innovative and more sophisticated behavioural model of the housing system. The HMP Core Group is satisfied that the approach adopted in preparing the HNDA is consistent with the spirit of the Scottish Government’s published HNDA Guidance. It is important to say something about the status of this document. It is presented here as a Working Draft, and a wide range of stakeholder organisations, as well as interested groups and individuals, are invited to respond to the draft and offer their comments and suggestions. The closing date for this consultation is Friday 14 January 2011. All responses received will then be considered by the HMP Core Group, which will be able to go forward with a more inclusive appreciation and informed understanding to prepare the final HNDA report, to be presented to the constituent Councils for their approval. The HNDA will then be submitted in spring 2011, with confidence that it is robust and credible, to the Scottish Government’s Centre for Housing Market Analysis. Preparation of the HNDA has been a complex undertaking, made all the more challenging by the economic downturn. I should like to express my appreciation to my housing and planning colleagues in the eight authorities, and in the GCV team, for their expertise and commitment. The HNDA is an important step in planning for the homes which households in the GCV area will require. Thank you in anticipation for your interest in it, and for taking the time to respond – your contribution to the process is very valuable.

Fergus J Macleod Chair: GCV Housing Market Partnership Planning Policy and Property Manager, Regeneration and Planning, Inverclyde Council November 2010

Acknowledgements This Working Draft of the Housing Need and Demand Assessment is a complex document, underpinned by a considerable amount of research and analysis. Many organisations have made important contributions in terms of information and advice. The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Housing Market Partnership wishes to record its gratitude to the staff of the following organisations for their time and commitment, whether in providing data or offering of their experience and insight. Without their cooperation it would not have been possible to produce such a comprehensive document. East Dunbartonshire Council East Renfrewshire Council Glasgow City Council Inverclyde Council North Lanarkshire Council Renfrewshire Council South Lanarkshire Council West Dunbartonshire Council Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority General Register Office for Scotland: Household Estimates & Projections Scottish Government: Centre for Housing Market Analysis Scottish Government: Housing Investment Division Scottish Government: Statistics Group The Scottish Housing Regulator Access Apna Ghar Housing [part of Sanctuary Group] Age Scotland Arklet Housing Association Association of Circus Proprietors of Great Britain Council of Mortgage Lenders Clyde Gateway Urban Regeneration Company Equality Scotland [an initiative of Trust, Hanover Scotland and Bield HAs] Glasgow Centre for Population Health Glasgow & West of Scotland Forum of Housing Associations Govanhill Housing Association Homes for Scotland Inclusion Scotland Ownership Options Scotland Positive Action in Housing Scottish Association of Landlords Scottish Federation of Housing Associations Scottish Womenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Aid Showmenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Guild of Great Britain (Scottish Section) Southside Housing Association West of Scotland Regional Equality Council Optimal Economics Oxford Economics Tribal Group

Introduction _________________________________________________________ 1.1

This Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) relates to the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan area, comprising eight constituent local authorities: • East Dunbartonshire Council • East Renfrewshire Council • Glasgow City Council • Inverclyde Council • North Lanarkshire Council • Renfrewshire Council • South Lanarkshire Council; and • West Dunbartonshire Council (excluding the Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park). Extensive experience of joint working between the authorities in the City Region has been developed through the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority (GCVSDPA) and the GCV Local Housing Strategy Group.

Policy Context 1.2

The statutory basis for the HNDA is contained in the Housing (Scotland) Act 2001, which requires local authorities to: • •

carry out an assessment of housing provision and provision of related services, and prepare, and submit to the Scottish Ministers, a Local Housing Strategy.

The assessment of housing provision must include: •

the nature and condition of the housing stock

•

the needs of persons in the area for housing accommodation

•

the demand for, and availability of, housing accommodation

•

the needs of persons in the area for, and the availability of, housing accommodation designed or adapted for persons with special needs.

1.3

The Local Housing Strategy (LHS) provides the strategic direction for addressing housing need and demand at a local authority level, and informs future investment in housing through the authority’s Strategic Housing Investment Plan (SHIP).

1.4

The Scottish Government’s discussion document ‘Firm Foundations’ (2007) and Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) reinforces the commitment to increasing the supply of new homes, and notes that the planning system should enable the development of well designed, energy efficient, good quality housing in sustainable locations, and 1

should allocate a generous supply of land to meet identified housing requirements across all tenures. The important role of the HNDA is identified: “Housing need and demand assessment provides the evidence base for defining housing supply targets in local housing strategies and allocating land for housing in development plans. The assessment should be undertaken at a functional housing market area level and consider the operation of the housing system as a whole, covering all tenures”. [Scottish Government (2010) SPP, paras. 66-91]

1.5

The HNDA therefore has to provide accurate and reliable data as input to LHS, the SDP and LDP. It must be robust enough to support the eight GCV Councils in their policy-making role as housing and planning authorities.

1.6

To ensure greater consistency the Scottish Government issued its HNDA Guidance in March 2008, and in the same year established the Centre for Housing Market Analysis (CHMA). The Guidance sets out the framework that local authorities should follow to assess how local housing markets operate if the HNDA is considered by CHMA to be ‘robust and credible’ then the approach used will not normally be open to debate at a development plan examination1.

Purpose of the HNDA 1.7

The HNDA is intended to assist policy development, decision-making and resourceallocation processes for the GCV area by: •

enabling the eight local authorities to develop long-term strategic views of housing need and demand to inform local housing strategies and development plans;

•

enabling the eight constituent local authorities to think spatially about the nature and influence of the housing markets in respect to the GCV area;

•

providing robust evidence to inform policies aimed at providing the right mix of housing across the whole housing market/all tenures – both market and affordable housing;

•

providing evidence to inform policies about the level of affordable housing required, including the need for different types and sizes of affordable housing;

•

supporting local authorities to develop a strategic approach to housing through consideration of housing need and demand in all housing sectors – owner occupied, private rented and affordable – and assessment of the key drivers and relationships within the housing market.

1.8

The approach differs from that previously used in preparing the GCV Joint Structure Plan and from that adopted in preparing LHS documents (which generally consider need and demand at LA and sub-LA geographies).

1.9

The HNDA provides estimates of the number of additional new homes that are required to meet need and demand for the private and social housing sectors

This policy does not override the provisions of Part 4 of the Town and Country Planning (Development Planning) (Scotland) Regulations 2008. 2

including affordable housing and housing for particular needs. The estimates are presented at various geographies in order to fulfil strategic planning requirements for each local authority – at housing market and sub-market area levels, which generally cross Council administrative boundaries, as well as at local authority and other subarea geographies. 1.10

To ensure clarity for purposes of technical assessment, brief definitions used in the HNDA are outlined here, and expanded upon in appropriate sections later in the document. Housing need refers to households without housing or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable. It is unlikely that these households will be able to meet their needs in the housing market without some assistance. Housing demand is the quantity and type/quality of housing which households wish to buy or rent in a particular area and are able to afford. Intermediate housing products are available at a cost below full market value to meet an identified need and include: subsidised low cost housing for sale (discounted, shared ownership or shared equity); low cost housing without subsidy (entry-level housing for sale) if offered below full market value; and mid market renting. Housing market areas are geographical areas which are relatively self-contained in terms of housing demand, i.e. a large percentage of people moving house or settling in the area will have sought a dwelling only in that area.

Report Structure 1.11

1.12

The HNDA seeks to assess a range of key issues including: •

the balance between housing supply and demand/need

•

the scale of need for affordable housing and the demand for market housing

•

the extent to which affordability is an issue

•

the extent to which low demand is an issue.

The HNDA serves as a crucial evidence base in preparing the LHS and both the Strategic and Local Development Plans. As such it needs to be fit for purpose if housing and planning policies are themselves to be sound. “A housing need and demand assessment should be considered robust and credible if, as a minimum, it provides all of the core outputs, meets all of the requirements of the process criteria in the checklists below and has made reasonable assumptions based on the information available, which will be confirmed by the Scottish Government.” [Scottish Government (2008) HNDA Guidance, page 7]

1.13

The HNDA also needs to be fit to support specific policies with regard to housing, such as Affordable Housing Policies that may be contained in Local Plans or Local Development Plans.

1.14

The core outputs judged necessary as a minimum for the HNDA to be considered ‘robust and credible’ by the Scottish Government’s CHMA, are listed in the HNDA Guidance, and reproduced below as Table 1.1. The process criteria checklist is reproduced as Table 1.2. The HNDA is structured to clearly meet both the process criteria and core outputs.

1.15

The HNDA consists of a further seven Chapters:

1.16

•

Chapter 2 details the procedures adopted by the GCV authorities, describing the Housing Market Partnership, quality control mechanisms, and intentions for future monitoring and review

•

Chapter 3 describes the HNDA modelling process, including an overview of the model and its components

•

Chapter 4 provides a Market Commentary on the trends in the GCV housing system, with particular reference to the recent recession

•

Chapter 5 describes the Housing Market Area system, including definition of Housing Market Areas and Housing Sub Market Areas

•

Chapter 6 provides a commentary on Demographic Change in the GCV area

•

Chapter 7 summarises the results of the Housing Supply and Demand/Need Comparisons

•

Chapter 8 provides a strategic assessment of Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements.

The HNDA is supported by a series of detailed Technical Appendices: • • • • • •

TA01 TA02 TA03 TA04 TA05 TA06

A Housing Market Area Framework Current Housing Supply/Stock Profile Gross Current/Backlog Need Affordability Analysis House Price Analysis Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing

Figure 1.1

Core Outputs

Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure, occupancy and location.

Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply and demand in different housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market.

Estimate of total future number of households.

Estimate of household groups who have specific housing requirements e.g. families, older people, minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young people, etc.

Estimate of current number of households in housing need.

Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing.

Estimate of future households requiring market housing.

Estimate of total future households requiring either affordable or market housing.

Figure 1.2

Process Checklist

Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with accepted approaches to identifying housing market areas2.

Housing market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area and any component markets contained within it.

Involves key stakeholders.

Contains a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations noted.

Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and transparent manner, in particular in relation to economic growth, demographic change and migration, income estimates and translation of the assessment of need and demand at housing market area level into housing supply targets.

Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms.

Explains how the assessments findings have or will be monitored and updated (where appropriate).

Source: Scottish Government, March 2008, HNDA Guidance, page 7

Local Housing System Analysis Good Practice Guide, Communities Scotland, 2004 http://www.lhs.communitiesscotland.gov.uk/stellent/groups/public/documents/webpages/cs_006031.p df sets out a range of accepted approaches to identifying housing market areas. 5

Developing the HNDA Process _________________________________________________________ Working in Partnership: Our Remit 2.1

The GCV authorities have gained considerable experience of successfully working together to deliver the Structure Plan over many years, and this has been built upon for the HNDA. The new Housing Market Partnership (HMP) signals a significant change in approach to strategic planning of housing requirements in the GCV area, in response to recent encouragement from the Scottish Government: It is clear that if we are to make a step change in housing supply, it must be based on effective strategic planning. This means that housing and planning policies will need to be grounded in a robust and credible understanding of housing markets. They must also be effectively linked to the delivery of housing through planning of land supply, practical land assembly and investment….. In most cases [development of a strategic approach to housing] will mean working in partnership with two or more local authorities to devise a strategic solution to need across a wider area. This builds on current thinking and best practice in Scotland. [Scottish Government, 2007, Firm Foundations, Discussion Document] While joint approaches in some parts of the country are well developed, greater co-operation on housing provision will be important to achieving the delivery of the housing supply increase which is needed. Local authorities are encouraged to explore new and enhanced ways of joint working within wider housing market areas. [Scottish Government and CoSLA, 2008, Local Housing Strategy Guidance, para. 20] Housing market areas may significantly overlap and will rarely coincide with local authority boundaries. Local authorities are therefore encouraged to co-operate regionally in housing market partnerships, which may also include other organisations such as housing associations and developers. [Scottish Government, 2010, Scottish Planning Policy, Housing, para. 68]

2.2

2.3

The GCV HMP aims: •

to share information and intelligence, including relevant contextual material and policy information

•

to assist with the development of an HNDA and to ensure its findings are disseminated and regularly reviewed

•

to support core members in the analysis and interpretation of housing market intelligence.

The GCV HMP therefore seeks to develop a clear shared understanding of the operation of the housing market across the city region.

2.4

In addition a long term strategic view is required which addresses both the interaction of various tenures in the housing system and the actual dynamics of housing systems, which operate across local authority administrative boundaries.

2.5

The GCV HMP also aims to encourage and support dialogue between various players at regional level; in doing so a greater multi-disciplinary perspective on the operation of the housing system/market, complementing existing activity at local authority level is achieved.

2.6

The majority of the research and analysis supporting the HNDA has been conducted by staff of the eight constituent authorities. Two senior planning analysts with Glasgow City Council provided ‘internal consultancy’ particularly in relation to demographic projections, testing of housing market system geography, and housing supply/demand comparison. The core GCVSDPA team provided support with coordination and administration, wider engagement and technical work. The authorities funded a temporary post of HNDA Project Manager to promote and coordinate activities.

2.7

As well as being consistent with the HNDA Guidance, this approach has provided the following benefits: •

improved understanding of components, such as current/backlog need, through jointly debating issues relating to methodology, data sources and their limitations, assumptions required, and the explanation of differences between authorities

•

enhanced understanding of the GCV housing system

•

combining the experience gained by planning and housing professionals in the strategic analysis of housing market issues.

2.8

As part of the wider technical work for the Strategic Development Plan, GCVSDPA commissioned Oxford Economics in May 2009 to provide an overview of the economic implications of the recession, and again in February 2010 to provide more detailed economic modelling. This provided useful context for the HNDA as well as informing specific decisions, such as on migration assumptions.

2.9

It was also considered appropriate to appoint specialist external consultants, to undertake the task of modelling the Affordability Analysis for the HNDA, leading to tenure projections. Tribal Group with Optimal Economics were commissioned, and worked closely with the GCV HMP to develop an innovative approach which sought to increase understanding of household behaviour within housing markets.

2.10

As well as quantitative data derived from analytical work and modelling, the HMP sought to complement this with more qualitative information in order to highlight specific issues and provide a better understanding and commentary on the operation of the GCV housing system.

2.11

Much of this additional commentary came from interviews with a range of external stakeholders.

Structures 2.12

Given the scale and diversity of the GCV area, the HMP has a ‘Core + Network’ structure, enabling it to manage both the technical work involved in preparation of the HNDA, and wider engagement activity. Figure 2.1

2.13

GCV HMP Structure

The HMP Core Group comprises: •

planning and housing representatives from the eight constituent local authorities. This group provides detailed understanding of the local planning context and of local housing issues and markets, and is responsible for preparing the statutory Strategic and Local Development Plans and Local Housing Strategies

•

representatives of the GCVSDPA, charged with preparing the Strategic Development Plan, and with coordinating the preparation of the HNDA

•

a representative of the Scottish Government’s area team within the Housing & Investment Division.

2.14

Beyond the core membership of the HMP it is recognised that there is a wider network of key stakeholder/interest groups with a contribution to make including, social and private landlords, developers and builders, funders, and representatives of particular housing needs groups. Some of these have an interest in the supply side of housing, while others are concerned with aspects of need/demand. The HMP has sought to complement rather than replicate the well developed existing consultation structures for both the LHS and LDP processes in each local authority.

2.15

Two sub groups support the work of, and report to, the HMP Core Group: •

the Planning Sub Group addresses technical Planning issues, and is made up of planning officers representing the eight GCV authorities;

•

the Housing Sub Group addresses technical Housing issues, and is made up of housing officers representing the eight GCV authorities.

2.16

The HMP Core Group is accountable, in turn, through the GCVSDPA Steering Group to the GCVSDPA Joint Committee The HMP Core Group ensured progress on key tasks for the HNDA by means of a detailed work programme, reviewed on a monthly basis. A progress report on the HNDA has been a standing item on the agendas of both the Steering Group and Joint Committee.

2.17

The HMP and the HNDA process have strong support and commitment from all eight GCV authorities. Responsibility for chairing the HMP Core Group and sub groups has been shared, at various times including Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire Councils. A positive approach to team work has developed, permitting constructive debate about issues arising and shared decision making.

2.18

Given the very broad corporate responsibilities held by many of the authorities’ Directors of Housing and of Planning, specific efforts in the form of reports and briefing meetings were made to ensure their understanding and support of the HNDA process.

Engaging ‘wider network’ stakeholders 2.19

The HMP Core Group has sought to engage with wider network stakeholders in various ways, including face-to-face meetings, briefing seminars on key issues, by way of a summary leaflet, and as a virtual network using an HNDA page on the GCV website. It also maintains dialogue with the GCV LHS Group and the CHMA.

2.20

The majority of the larger housing developers active in the GCV area are members of the representative trade body, Homes for Scotland. Our engagement with this key group of stakeholders included: •

an initial briefing meeting on the role of the HNDA and the process being adopted for the GCV area

•

a tripartite meeting involving Homes for Scotland, South Lanarkshire Council and GCVSDPA to resolve disputed sites and agree the housing land audit

•

other authorities reviewing their housing land audits in consultation with Homes for Scotland

•

inviting representatives of Homes for Scotland to attend a meeting of the HMP Core Group to discuss implications of the recession for the industry, and progress on the HNDA.

2.21

Some local authorities also undertook local consultation/engagement with developers related to their specific local circumstances.

2.22

Another key group of stakeholders is Registered Social Landlords (RSLs), of which there are over 100 active in the GCV area. As well as having a local community focus, the group also includes a number of national and specialist housing associations. There are two large stock transfer associations: River Clyde Homes (established to take transfer of the majority of Inverclyde Council’s housing stock) and Glasgow Housing Association (established to take Glasgow City Council’s housing stock). It was agreed that all local authorities should use their usual liaison mechanisms to keep RSLs in their area up to date and engage with the HNDA process. In practice, of course, various components of the HNDA necessitated requests for data as input to the analyses. 9

2.23

The Scottish Federation of Housing Associations is a national representative body, of which many associations in the GCV area are members. Following a meeting with a representative of the policy team, a briefing seminar on the HNDA process was held in January 2010. This was attended by representatives of six national or regional associations and several local associations.

2.24

The Glasgow and West of Scotland Forum of Housing Associations represents a number of RSLs. Most are community-based associations in Glasgow City, but with some members in other authority areas. Informal briefings were held with a representative and with the Director Designate, and an offer made to give a briefing seminar to Forum members.

2.25

The private rented segment of the market is growing in significance. It is very diverse ranging from landlords with a single property to let, to companies with substantial property portfolios. Contact was made with the representative body, the Scottish Association of Landlords.

2.26

An important function of the HNDA is to assess the range of particular needs arising in Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements – including older people households, those with disabilities or long term limiting illness, students, minority ethnic communities, Gypsies/ Travellers and travelling showpeople.

2.27

Representatives from the following organisations took part in the initial engagement process: Age Scotland Glasgow Centre for Population Health Inclusion Scotland Ownership Options Scotland Positive Action in Housing Scottish Women’s Aid Showmen’s Guild of Great Britain (Scottish Section) West of Scotland Regional Equality Council.

2.28

A number of housing associations have developed considerable expertise and experience in meeting particular needs, and the following associations assisted with issues relating to their specific area of expertise: Access Apna Ghar Housing [part of Sanctuary Group] Arklet HA Equality Scotland [an initiative of Trust, Hanover Scotland and Bield HAs] Govanhill HA Southside HA.

2.29

In drafting the HNDA we drew on the expertise of consultants Oxford Economics, Tribal Group and Optimal Economics, as well as the CHMA. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) was contacted through its consultant in Scotland, who provided various CML documents and briefing papers to assist us in better understanding relevant specific aspects of the housing market.

Quality Control 2.30

It is important that the outputs of the HNDA are both valid and reliable, as they form the key evidence base for both Strategic and Local Development Plans and for Local Housing Strategies. The HMP Core Group devoted considerable time and attention to detail to ensure the quality of results. A four stage approach was adopted: I. Getting the methodology and modelling processes right – where appropriate agreeing the use of ‘procedure notes’ and data gathering pro formas to ensure improved consistency between the eight authorities II. Collecting the best available data III. Using alternative approaches or data sources for triangulation purposes, and IV. Checking the credibility of our interpretation of results by comparison between authorities or against qualitative information or other means.

2.31

The guiding principle is one of openness about data sources and their limitations, referencing information, and acknowledging assumptions required and judgements made. The Technical Appendices to this HNDA provide full details of validation procedures for various stages of the assessment.

2.32

For the most part the Scottish Government’s HNDA Guidance (2008) served as the methodological handbook, and we are confident that we have fulfilled the spirit of the Guidance in delivering all the Core Outputs and meeting the process criteria. In two areas we developed new approaches which are considered to be at least as robust and credible as those in the Guidance: Affordability Analysis and Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements. In both cases we liaised closely with the Scottish Government’s representative on the Core Group and with the CHMA to ensure the validity of the approach taken.

2.33

Affordability Analysis: In attempting to determine levels of housing need and demand, it is important to analyse the likely ability of households to meet their own housing requirements in the market now and in the future, so that housing need can be determined. Those households without the means to meet their own housing needs will therefore be dependent on social rented housing. A similar affordability test has to be applied both to backlog need and to projected households. For our purposes it seemed important also to try to ascertain the likely extent to which the private rented sector and the intermediate sector could potentially be expected to contribute to meeting housing need/demand.

2.34

In the past the Structure Plan had simply identified the proportion of households likely to require private sector housing, predominantly owner occupation. The remaining households were assumed to require social rented housing. The projected tenure ratio was based on historic patterns of tenure change. Local Housing Strategies adopted a different approach, focussing on new households and attempting to measure ‘affordability’ using the ratio of household income to house price and applying affordability thresholds (e.g. 3.5 times gross household income for single earner households, 2.9 times for double income households, or up to 25% of gross household income for private rental).

2.35

The HNDA Guidance advises the use of income : house price ratios and affordability thresholds. As this is a rather complicated area of analysis, the HMP Core Group decided to appoint consultants Tribal Group with Optimal Economics so that their specialist expertise could be brought to bear. The approach, fully explained in Technical Appendix TA05 Affordability Analysis, seeks to model the behaviour and housing choices made by households in different age cohorts. It recognises, for instance, the inter-tenure moves which occur, particularly among households in the 25-35 age band, as many move from an initial temporary period of private rental into long term settled tenure of owner occupation. Income is also identified as a relatively weak predictor of tenure compared to employment status. Developing this new approach was time-consuming and challenging. The task completed, the HMP Core Group is satisfied that its decision to deviate from the Guidance in this way was fully justified by gaining a more sophisticated understanding of the operation of different aspects of the GCV housing market.

2.36

Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements: The HNDA Guidance is limited with regard to the very broadly defined and diverse category known as Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements. Reference was therefore made to previous guidance issued by the former Communities Scotland3 in developing an approach to meet GCV’s requirements for the HNDA. It should be noted that the HNDA is concerned with supply and demand of housing to meet these needs, rather than with support services.

Approval of the HNDA 2.37

The HNDA Guidance suggests that the HMP would sign off the HNDA. This inevitably has implications for current SDPA structures (which have a planning focus) as well as for appropriate approval processes within the GCV constituent authorities.

2.38

As a statutory part of the planning system in Scotland, the GCVSDPA has established procedures and structures for processing strategic planning issues and documents such as the Strategic Development Plan – principally the eight-authority Steering Group and Joint Committee. This mechanism would be appropriate for agreeing and ‘signing off’ the HNDA as a key source document for the SDP and LDPs.

2.39

However, the HNDA is a statutory requirement under the Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 and is a key building block for the LHS, it also requires to be approved by individual housing authorities.

2.40

Throughout the preparation of the HNDA, the process involved a strong partnership approach, including planning and housing staff from all eight authorities.

Monitoring and Review 2.41

The housing system is complex and dynamic and for this reason, it is not possible to provide definitive estimates of demand and need, or an assessment of market conditions. However, the HNDA provides valuable insights into how the GCV housing system currently operates and is likely to operate in the future. As such, it can serve as a shared evidence base to inform local authorities and their partners in developing housing supply targets in their LHS, and in allocating land to meet these targets through housing policies in Local Development Plans.

Local Housing Systems Analysis: Good Practice Guide (September 2004) Chapter 11: “Community Care Housing Needs Assessment”. Communities Scotland. 12

2.42

Future projections of population, households and of housing need and demand, are always subject to a degree of uncertainty – the further forward the projection the greater this becomes. The following factors should be noted in particular: •

the 2001 Census, the starting point for various population assumptions, is now out of date

•

the impact of inward migration from accession states in the expanded European Union (EU), and whether this will continue

•

demographic change in the form of an ageing population may increase the need and demand for housing which has to meet particular needs

•

the recession has had a significant impact on the housing system, severely reducing new supply and developer capacity, and affecting household demand and need; the long term consequences are not clear

•

the potential of the ‘intermediate’ housing sector to meet segments of need and demand, especially in the context of planned fiscal restraint over a number of years.

2.43

A number of these points are developed more fully in other sections of the document. These are clearly important issues as the HNDA process models future housing need and demand and supply requirements over a period of up to 15 years.

2.44

The GCV HMP will undertake a comprehensive review of the HNDA on a five-yearly basis, linked to the review of Development Plans and Local Housing Strategies. This will provide an opportunity to take account of data from the 2011 Census, as well as evidence of changes in demographics, market circumstances and relevant policy impacts, and will ensure that strategic planning for housing across the GCV area is kept as up to date as practicable.

2.45

The HMP will also provide a means for the eight authorities to jointly research specific issues or review individual components as appropriate on an interim basis, between formal reviews. This will ensure that the authorities maintain a current and shared understanding of the evolving nature of the GCV housing system.

Overview of the HNDA Model _________________________________________________________ Developing the HNDA model 3.1

This Chapter seeks to provide a broad overview of the HNDA model, so that the general reader may understand how the various components fit together to deliver the Core Outputs required by the Scottish Government. It simplifies what has proved to be a complex process; those requiring more technical detail on each of the major components are referred to the relevant Chapters or Technical Appendices.

3.2

The model builds on the analytical expertise built up among staff in the constituent authorities and the core team in relation to: the GCV Joint Structure Plan, particularly in terms of demographic projection and housing market assessment for the private or market sector; and local authorities’ Housing Needs Assessments for the social rented sector, and for particular needs. Various additional studies have been undertaken to help develop a more rounded and integrated understanding of the GCV housing system.

3.3

It should be noted that the model is primarily a means of conducting an analytical assessment of current and future housing market conditions. Although the HNDA provides an important part of the evidence base, it is a separate activity from policy development and appraisal, which has started on the GCV SDP and will be undertaken in the preparation and finalisation of Local Housing Strategies and Development Plans.

3.4

This distinction – between the inputs and assumptions used in modelling the housing system/market, and policy – is not a hard and fast one, since the task involved in producing a robust and credible HNDA requires a number of trade-offs between each. An agreed understanding and appreciation of current policy and how it has influenced the assumptions around the data inputs has been one of the important roles of the HMP Core Group in reaching the stage we are now at.

The model and its components: an overview 3.5

An Overview of the HNDA Model is illustrated overleaf in the form of a block diagram (Figure 3.1). The key components are described briefly below, together with an indication of the Core Output to which they contribute.

3.6

Stock Profile: This part of the HNDA examines the existing housing stock in the GCV area, and is analysed fully in Technical Appendix TA02 Current Housing Supply/Stock Profile.

3.7

This produces CORE OUTPUT 1: Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure, occupancy and location.

Figure 3.1â&#x20AC;&#x201A; Overview of the HNDA model Population base year estimate

Housing stock base year estimate

Households base year estimate

Market Appraisal

Demographics

Economic Outlook of Scenarios (Oxford Economics)

Projected population (LA, LA sub-area and sub-market area)

Core Output 2 Market commentary

Core Output 3 Projected households (LA, LA sub-area and sub-market area)

Housing stock base year estimate

Core Output 1 Stock profile

Core Output 5 Current / backlog housing need

Market Sector Housing Demand Assessment

Affordable Sector Housing Needs Assessment

Housing stock base year estimate

Affordability Tenure Assessment (Tribal / Optimal Economics) Private rented stock projections by LA and LA sub-area

Local demand by SMA

Split demand between mobile and local

Projected households and backlog need that can afford mainstream private market housing by HMA framework

Projected households and backlog need requiring social rented housing Core Output 4 Estimate of household groups and specific housing requirements

Comparison of projected stock and local demand by SMA

Comparison of local surplusses with mobile demand

Core Output 7 Local shortfalls requiring additional land release

Core Output 7 Wider HMA shortfalls requiring additional land release

Mobile demand by HMA

Core Output 6 Assessment of potential intermediate sector

Core Output 6 Shortfalls requiring additional social rented supply

Social rented stock projections by LA and LA sub-area

Comparison of projected stock and households by LA and LA sub-area

3.8

A Market Commentary assessing the recent and projected drivers of change and development in the GCV housing market is provided in Chapter 4.

3.9

This produces CORE OUTPUT 2: Analysis of past and current housing market trends, including balance between supply and demand in different housing sectors and price/affordability. Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market.

3.10

Demographic projections of Population and Households: The projections underpin subsequent components of the model. Two projection scenarios have been identified for the HNDA, using different assumptions relating to migration: a lower migration scenario [also known as scenario A] which assumes that, after the initial five years or so, the net migration will be constant, at a rate of -1,050 per year, for the remainder of the projection period to 2025; and a planning scenario [known as scenario C] which assumes a constant net migration of +1,050 per year for ten years, with a resumption of further trend growth thereafter. The ten year delay before improvement in migration resumes has been incorporated in the planning scenario in response to the economic appraisal by Oxford Economics, and is due to the economic downturn.

3.11

A commentary on the patterns of Demographic Change in the GCV Area is provided in Chapter 6. Technical Appendix TA06 Review of Supply and Demand for Housing details population and household projections. The report by Oxford Economics, Economic Outlook and Scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City-Region, is published as Background Report BR05 to the GCV Strategic Development Plan Main Issues Report.

3.12

This produces CORE OUTPUT 3: Estimate of total future number of households.

3.13

Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements are identified and assessed in some detail in Chapter 8.

3.14

This produces CORE OUTPUT 4: Estimate of household groups who have specific housing requirements e.g. families, older people, minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young people, etc.

3.15

Current/Backlog Need: This component examines those households considered to be currently in housing need (at March 2009), including the various categories of household identified in the HNDA Guidance: homeless, concealed, overcrowded, with support needs, in poor quality accommodation, and experiencing harassment.

3.16

Technical Appendix TA03 Gross Current/ Backlog Need details the approach adopted, methodology and results, together with the assumptions made by each authority.

3.17

This produces CORE OUTPUT 5: Estimate of current number of households in housing need.

3.18

Affordability Study/Tenure Assessment: The HMP Core Group commissioned consultants Tribal Group with Optimal Economics to undertake this analysis. It is a key component of the HNDA model, allowing an assessment to be made of tenure of newly arising and migrant households, and those currently in housing need (backlog need). The consultants have developed an innovative behavioural economics approach to tenure analysis, which attempts to more accurately reflect the complex decisions made by households in relation to their housing requirements at different stages in life. It incorporates also inter-tenure flows recognising the dynamic and inter-connected nature of the housing system. This contrasts with the conventional and more static approach, using assumed income:house price ratios to determine affordability thresholds.

3.19

The assessment was applied to new and emerging households and to households in backlog need. Outputs from this component of the modelling work were used as inputs to the market and affordable sector supply and demand/need comparisons. The Study explored also the future potential for demand in the relatively new ‘intermediate’ housing sector.

3.20

Technical Appendix TA04 Affordability Analysis provides the Final Report of the Affordability Study by Tribal [with Optimal Economics], detailing the methodology, assumptions and results. TA05 House Price Analysis provides contextual information.

3.21

Affordable Sector Housing Needs Assessment: This component adopts a methodology consistent with the approach detailed in the HNDA Guidance, using outputs from the Affordability Study/Tenure Assessment and the assessment of Current/Backlog Need to quantify projected households unable to meet their needs in the market and thus requiring social rented housing. Consideration is also given to the potential future role of the ‘intermediate’ housing sector – principally shared equity/shared ownership – to meet some of these needs. A detailed explanation of the methodology and results may be found in Technical Appendix TA06 Review of Supply and Demand for Housing: A Housing Market Area Framework.

3.22

This produces CORE OUTPUT 6: Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing.

3.23

Market Sector Housing Demand Assessment: This component incorporates local and mobile demand within the context of the Housing Market Framework identified for the GCV area, and described in Chapter 5. Market housing includes both owner occupied and privately rented housing. As the HNDA Guidance provides limited direction on a preferred approach to assessing market housing demand, the ‘all stock, all households’ approach previously developed for the GCV Structure Plan has been adopted, using outputs from the Affordability Study/Tenure Assessment to quantify projected demand. The approach compares projected households with projected supply to reveal shortfalls (or surpluses). It incorporates local and mobile demand within the context of the Housing Market Framework identified for the GCV area.

3.24

A detailed explanation of the methodology and results may be found in Technical Appendices TA01 A Housing Market Framework, and TA06 Review of Supply and Demand/ Need for Housing.

3.25

This produces CORE OUTPUT 7: Estimate of future households requiring market housing.

3.26

Figure 3.2 summarises where the various Core Outputs may be found within the HNDA. Figure 3.2 Location of Core Outputs within the HNDA Core Output

Description

Location within the HNDA

Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure, occupancy and location

Technical Appendices TA02 Current Housing Supply/ Stock Profile and TA06 Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing Chapter 4: Market Commentary

Estimate of total future number of households

Chapter 6: Demographic Change in the GCV Area; also TA06 Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing

Estimate of household groups who have specific housing requirements, e.g. families, older people, minority ethnic groups, disabled people, young people, etc.

Chapter 8: Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements

Estimate of current number households in housing need

TA03 Gross Current/Backlog Need provides â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;grossâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; figures after discounting for in-situ solutions. TA04 Affordability Analysis splits the backlog need figures to indicate those households which could/could not afford to meet their own needs in the market

Estimate of future households that will require affordable housing

TA04 Affordability Analysis, and TA06 Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing

Estimate of future households requiring market housing

TA01 A Housing Market Framework, TA04 Affordability Analysis, and TA06 Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing

Estimate of total future households requiring either affordable or market housing

The sum of Core Outputs 6 and 7

Validating the model 3.27

Any such modelling work is only as good as the methodology adopted, the sources of data, and the assumptions and judgements applied. The HMP Core Group adopted a rigorous approach to the work, and all data sources, their limitations and assumptions adopted are identified and explained in the relevant chapters and Technical Appendices. 18

3.28

Additional steps were also taken to triangulate our results at specific stages, for example in relation to backlog need, and in terms of population and household projections. These steps are detailed in the appropriate Technical Appendices.

3.29

The ‘all stock, all households’ approach adopted for private sector/market housing produces a residual figure which can be categorised as non-market housing. These figures were compared with the figures from the Housing Needs Assessment approach adopted for the affordable sector, consistent with HNDA Guidance. In doing so, discrepancies were identified. As both model components use largely the same inputs, in terms of household projections and inter-tenure flows, additional work had to be undertaken to explain these differences.

3.30

The key difference relates to the modelling of household terminations and intertenure flows. These have been modelled by Tribal/OE based on behavioural assumptions. In the case of the social rented sector, household terminations and outflows usually give rise to a re-let of the vacated property. Recent turnover rates are available to help inform projected future supply, and are used in the Housing Needs Assessment; such data is unavailable for the private sector. This is discussed more fully in Technical Appendix TA06 Review of Supply and Demand for Housing.

3.31

Two final caveats should be noted. Firstly, it is not possible to model future policy decisions, but these will impact actual outcomes. For example, the model identifies potential demand for ‘intermediate’ housing products, but as these require public subsidy in one form or another, outcomes are supply constrained and dependent on public spending plans. Secondly, the economic downturn has introduced significant uncertainty into the housing market, both in terms of demand and supply. Some allowance has been made for this in certain key assumptions, but the full implications of the recession and recovery from it are still by no means clear.

Market Commentary _________________________________________________________ 4.1

This chapter provides a high-level consideration of the housing market context in terms of those factors which underpin market demand, by providing information on the socio-economic and other differences, by local authority, that create differences in demand and level of need across the City Region. This should be read in conjunction with Chapter 5 (demographic change), Chapter 6 (housing supply and demand/need comparisons) and Technical Appendices TA02 (current housing supply and stock profile) and TA04 (Tribal affordability analysis) which provide an overview of the demand/need and supply elements of the housing system.

4.2

The two key issues are the overall level of demand/need for housing which is driven by the overall change in the number of households and the tenure choices which households make. In this context, the main considerations are: • Economic context; • Demographic context; • Social context; • Other key drivers of change; and • Housing market trends

Economic Context 4.3

The general context of downturn, recession and protracted recovery is well known, as is the significant effect on the housebuilding industry. There is a full economic discussion in the Oxford Economics report prepared in support of the Main Issues Report, Background Report 5: Economic Outlooks and Scenarios for the Glasgow and Clyde Valley City-Region.

4.4

The Chancellor’s budget of June 2010 and Spending Review of October 2010 set the political and economic context for the next few years. The overriding issue is reduction in the structural deficit, through a combination of spending reductions and taxation increases, approximately 70% of the former and 30% of the latter. The main issue for retailing is likely to be the increase in VAT to 20%, which will take effect on 1 January 2011. The range of goods subject to VAT will not be extended, so the impact will be on those goods currently subject to VAT. In recent years, competition has kept the cost of goods down (including the restoration of the 17.5% VAT rate, absorbed by some retailers), and this could offset part of this impact in terms of price increases, but it is debatable how realistic this prospect is, given the fact this is a second VAT increase; also the relative weakness of the pound sterling and the increasing cost of imports. Recent figures released by ONS show an increase in the price of clothing and footwear over the last year. So, it is likely that prices will increase and expenditure will be squeezed. The general context of wage restraint in both the public and private sectors will reinforce any pressure on expenditure from price increases. Few employers are likely to offer general pay increases, and a two year pay freeze has been announced for the public sector. Also, both consumer price index and retail price index measures of inflation have been increasing, to 3.4% 20

and 5.1% respectively. This will squeeze disposable income even further as the costs of travelling to work rise, for example. Any consequential increase in interest rates will have a further impact. 4.5

In terms of banking, although the Bank of England base rate has been maintained at 0.5%, the availability of mortgage products continues to be constrained. First time buyers require typically between 20% and 30% deposit to access most products, and in Scotland the average required deposit is 21%. With regard to wider borrowing, there has been a notable decline in household debt, in terms of secured and unsecured credit. The Bank of England has reported that, in August 2010, new unsecured lending fell behind debt repayment, and although secured credit availability increased in the second quarter of 2010, demand was down. Overall, the main issue has been the withdrawal of overseas lenders from the UK market, further reinforced by much more stringent lending conditions imposed by the FSA on mortgage lending. The consequence is that overall level of lending to first time buyers has fallen sharply. This is not surprising as ease of access to credit rather than house prices was the critical factor in home ownership. In terms of home ownership, the most likely determining factor in owner-occupation is employment status.

4.6

In the context of employment, Glasgow and the Clyde Valley largely mirrors the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;shapeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; of the wider national and Scottish forecasts with a sharp contraction followed by a number of years of modest decline as public sector cuts begin to bite. The recovery is steady, rather than spectacular in jobs, and medium term outlooks offer only modest employment growth prospects, perhaps a third of the pre-recession decade. Private services offer the main source of employment growth and the key difference to pre recession is the much more challenging outlook for employment in public services. It is widely anticipated that it will be up to or beyond a decade before economic and associated employment growth returns to pre-2008 levels. Over the course of the slow recovery decade (2010-2020) growth is projected at a relatively modest (in the context of the decade just past) 3,250 net jobs per annum and 2.4% GVA growth for Glasgow / Clyde Valley before moderating to an annual average 1,500 jobs per annum and 1.9% growth in the period 2020-2035.

4.7

Current employment is considered by local authority in Figure 4.1 below. Figure 4.1 Local Authority East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Scotland

Employment profile by Local Authority

Resident Employment 2008 78.3

Unemployment 2008 (2009) 1.5 (2.7)

77.0 66.6 70.5 72.1 75.5 77.8 72.6

1.2 3.7 3.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 3.8

72.9

2.8 (4.5)

Sources: BR05 table 3.7 and NOMIS

(2.4) (5.5) (5.3) (5.0) (4.2) (4.2) (5.7)

Economically Inactive (2009-2010) 20 22 30 25 22.4 23.5 23.7 25 23

4.8

For those in employment, average earnings and resident-to-workplace ratios can also be considered, in Figure 4.2 below. Figure 4.2 Local Authority E Dunbartonshire E Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde N Lanarkshire Renfrewshire S Lanarkshire W Dunbartonshire GCV Scotland

Employment profile by Local Authority

Average weekly wage – residence 551.2 540.6 454.7 428.8 419.1 471.1 457.5 412.6 457.3 457.0

Average weekly wage – employment 445.5 387.7 474.5 388.5 458.4 494.1 424.6 408.2 457.8 455.5

Resident to workplace ratio 1.24 1.39 0.96 1.10 0.91 0.95 1.08 1.01 1.00 1.00

Source: BR05 table 3.9

4.9

It is clear, from the tables above, that employment and economic activity varies between local authority areas, with East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire experiencing greater levels of employment and lower economic inactivity other areas, notably Glasgow City, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire. However, all areas have seen unemployment rise in the most recent year of 2009, a trend across Scotland as well. Average resident wages are higher in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire, but average employment wages fall, and this coupled with the resident to workplace ratios for these areas indicates a significant commuter presence sustaining jobs in Glasgow City. This shows part of a picture of relative disadvantage in Glasgow City, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire compared to East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire in particular. As well as the jobs losses evident above and the relative advantages and disadvantages which exist across Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, recovery will be slow over the post-recession decade.

4.10

The financial crisis of the last two years has, among many other effects, led to a very sharp reduction in the availability of mortgage credit. The principal factor has been the withdrawal of overseas lenders from the UK market. This has been further reinforced by much more stringent lending conditions imposed by the FSA on mortgage lending. The consequence is that overall level of lending to first time buyers has fallen sharply. There is also some evidence from house builders that buyers are much more cautious than before and that the tendency of prospective buyers to withdraw from purchases has risen.

4.11

It is in some ways ironic that while stagnant or even falling house prices are making housing more “affordable” in conventional terms, lack of finance is making housing less accessible.

Demographic Context 4.12

Chapter 6 provides a full assessment of demographic change, which should be referred to in detail, and this chapter provides a summary of the main demographic outputs.

4.13

In terms of general profile, Glasgow is a location where young people move to and settle, tending to move outward to the rest of the Clyde Valley to form families. This has implications for the age structures of the population in Glasgow and in the rest of the Clyde Valley, which are different, and consequently for market demand for housing in different locations.

4.14

For children, the number of children has reduced by 33,000 during the years from 2000 to 2008, although this is projected to stabilise in 2008, at around 315,000, and to be sustained at this level for the medium term future.

4.15

The working age population has increased by 29,000 over the period 2000 to 2008, to a level of 1,118,000 with varying degrees of increase are projected for the medium term future, depending upon the scenario selected, ranging from 8,00 per annum to 2,700 per annum to 2025.

4.16

For those of retirement age, there was a constant level until 2000 and a more recent increase of around 1,000 per annum to 2008 (322,000 total) which is projected to rise overall (1000 per annum) to 2025, albeit with initial decline to 2016 and rise thereafter. This includes the effect of a rise in the pensionable age which has limited much faster growth of this demographic group.

4.17

So, in general, over the last 17 years, there have been reductions in the numbers of children and young adults and significant increases of those of middle-age and elderly. For the next 17 year period (2008 to 2025) it is projected that the numbers of young adults and middle age will decrease, with little change in the number of children and a rise in the pre-retirement and elderly age groups â&#x20AC;&#x201C; overall an ageing population.

4.18

This demographic picture varies across Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, with Glasgow predicted to face a considerable reduction in young adults and increases in the numbers of children and older adults. For the rest of the Clyde Valley, the number of middle-aged adults is expected to reduce with a sizeable increase in the number of pre-retirement and older/elderly adults. This is combined with a decline in the numbers of children in the rest of the Clyde Valley, in contrast to the increase in children in Glasgow and, in later years, also in East Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire.

4.19

In terms of the working population, rises are projected to 2016 for Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and East Renfrewshire, with declines in East Dunbartonshire, Inverclyde and Renfrewshire. Thereafter, these rises will slow down, leading to an overall working age population change in 2025 of some 13,000 to 46,000 in excess of 2008.

4.20

There is a general ageing of the population. The numbers of pensionable age are expected to reduce in Glasgow and increase in South Lanarkshire, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire to 2016, with substantial rises in those of pensionable age after 2016 in all areas, particularly in North and South Lanarkshire.

4.21

Higher concentrations of single person households are mainly in Glasgow City, but also include parts of Renfrewshire (Paisley and Linwood).

4.22

Larger than average households are predominantly to be found in South Lanarkshire and in parts of North Lanarkshire and East Dunbartonshire.

4.23

The largest households are primarily located in areas of predominantly owner occupied housing, e.g. East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Kilmacolm in Inverclyde, and western Renfrewshire.

4.24

Overall, the GCV area as a whole is projected to gain 96,000 to 113,000 households over the period 2008 - 2025 with all areas gaining households and the biggest gains being in Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire.

Social Context 4.25

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley has 59% of all datazones within the top 15% most deprived in Scotland, according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009. This is a decrease from 68% in 2006, with the biggest change occurring within Glasgow, which accounts for 31% of the 15% most deprived datazones. The spatial and local context can also be considered in terms of the percentage of datazones within a local authority boundary which fall within the 15% most deprived (Figure 4.3) and also the spatial distribution in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (Figure 4.4).

Figure 4.3

Percentage of local authority datazones within 15% most deprived

60 East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire 40 Glasgow City 30

Inverclyde North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire 10

South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

0 2004

2006

2009

Source: SIMD

Figure 4.4

Distribution of 15% most deprived datazones

Source: SIMD

4.26

Income and employment deprivation can be considered in more detail, as this will relate to affordability issues at the local authority and also housing market level (Figure 4.5 and Figure 4.6). The picture is not uniform; East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire have the lowest levels of multiple deprivation and lowest levels of income and employment deprivation. Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire, Inverclyde and North Lanarkshire have the highest levels of multiple, income and employment deprivation. This is reinforced by consideration of the percentage of children within low income households (Figure 4.7). Figure 4.5 30

Percentage of population that is income deprived

25 20 15 10

2002

2005

2008

Source: SIMD 25

Figure 4.6

Percentage of working age population that is employment deprived

25 20 15 10 2002 5

2005

2008

Source: SIMD

Figure 4.7 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Percentage of children in low income households

2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008

Source: SIMD

4.27

The next area of consideration is general health in terms of disability and life expectancy. Disability rates (Figure 4.8) are variable between authorities, but there is a similar pattern to that of deprivation, with Glasgow City displaying the highest claimant rate and East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire displaying the lowest rate. All rates are increasing within Glasgow and the Clyde Valley. This may be a concern in terms of housing stock provision to meet special needs. Average life expectancy (Figure 4.9) reinforces the general comparative picture, notwithstanding the greater expected longevity of females. East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire have the highest average life expectancies for both genders, and notably the life expectancy for males in these two authorities has been equal or higher to that of females in Glasgow City. Also of significance is the fact that average male life expectancy in Glasgow has climbed above 70 years. In fact, all local authorities have seen evidence of an increase in expectancy over the last decade. 26

Figure 4.8

Disability Living Allowance Claimants per 100,000

Figure 4.9

Average Life Expectancy

10000

9000 East Dunbartonshire Female

80 8000

East Dunbartonshire Male East Renfrewshire Female East Renfrewshire Male

East Dunbartonshire Glasgow City Female

East Renfrewshire

7000

Glasgow City Male

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

6000

Inverclyde Male

North Lanarkshire

5000

Inverclyde Female

North Lanarkshire Female

Renfrewshire

North Lanarkshire Male

South Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire Female

West Dunbartonshire

Renfrewshire Male South Lanarkshire Female South Lanarkshire Male

4000

West Dunbartonshire Female West Dunbartonshire Male

3000

65 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 2002 2003 2004 200 5 2006 2007 2008

Source: SNS

The Housing Market 4.28

This section considers the housing market, and is based upon general market review, scrutiny of housing market data and assessment work in TA04. A general housing market overview is considered in the first instance, followed by review of house sales and prices related to lowest quartile income.

4.29

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley is home (2008) to 804,000 households: this represents about 37% of all Scottish households. Because the GCV area, in itself, accounts for a large part of the Scottish population it is broadly reflective of the country as a whole in the structure of its housing market. However, there are some key differences between Scotland and the GCV area and, more importantly, differences within the area. There is, proportionately, a slightly smaller owner occupied sector and a rather larger social rented sector than for Scotland. The Private Rented sector is also relatively small in the GCV area. About 35% of households are in the social rented sector in Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, heavily influenced by the nature of the Glasgow market which accounts for 35% of households in the area, and to a lesser degree by West Dunbartonshire. The breakdown for 2008 is shown in Figure 4.10. Figure 4.10

Tenure Structure (% households)

Source: TA04

4.30

Broadly, the authorities fall into three groups. • Large social rented sectors with relatively small owner occupied sectors: Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire. • Predominantly owner occupied with small social rented sectors: Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire.

East

• National average split: Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire. South Lanarkshire’s tenure pattern shows some of the same characteristics as East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire while the Private Rented Sector is very small in all areas other than Glasgow.

4.31

Median household income in the two areas dominated by Owner Occupation – East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire - is around 20% above the Scottish median figure, while Glasgow and West Dunbartonshire have median incomes 10% of more below the Scottish figure, Inverclyde’s figure is 9% below Scotland’s and the other authorities have median incomes between 5% below and 1% over the Scottish figure. Similarly, while, according to Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics, 17% of Glasgow’s working age population, 17% of Inverclyde’s working population and 16% of West Dunbartonshire’s working population were employment deprived in 2008, the comparable figures for East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire were just 7%.

4.32

Owner Occupation will remain by far the dominant tenure and will probably increase its overall share of the market to 67% of the total. The social rented sector will decline in market share terms and by about 1% – 2% in absolute terms.

4.33

These changes will be much less dramatic than in the last 10 – 20 years and reflect a housing system which is stabilising. The growth of owner occupation may be slowed by more difficult conditions in the housing finance market and if this is the case then the private rented sector will probably grow quite strongly – possibly by 50% or more. In this situation there would be some growth in demand for social renting but by far the main effects would be in the private rented sector. Growth in home ownership will not be evenly spread – the main growth will be in Glasgow (provided migration is strong) and Lanarkshire with quite modest growth in other areas.

4.34

Although the social rented sector will stabilise, the pattern of change will be very uneven. The sector will decline steadily in Glasgow while there will be strong demand pressures, which may not be easily accommodated, in South Lanarkshire, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire.

4.35

The housing market has been depressed in terms of land prices, house prices and housing supply. There is a mixed opinion on house prices, as to whether these have risen or fallen in the three months to August 2010, but there has been an overall increase in house prices in a year-on-year basis from 2009 to 201, although the market in Scotland in 2010 is around 2% below peak (2008 peak) as opposed to 12% below peak (as in 2009). New buyer enquiries have fallen in Scotland during 2010, although the volume of transactions has risen from the slump in 2007 and 2008.

4.36

New starts have declined some 22% in 2009/2010 in Scotland, compared with 2008/2009, and completions have fallen by 17% over the same period. However, new build social sector completions have increased by some 20% over the same period, although this is still behind demand, and there has been a slight fall in the Scottish public sector housing stock. The Affordable Housing Investment Programme has delivered a 30% increase in properties over the same period, some 8,000 properties, the highest total recorded.

4.37

In Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, house sales (Figure 4.11) have slumped noticeably for the local authorities with the larger shares of house sales, less so for those with lower shares, but in all cases the fall is to approximately 1999 levels of sales. This analysis is reinforced by further work in terms of house price analysis (Technical Appendix TA05).

Figure 4.11

House Sales (SNS)

16,000 East Dunbartonshire

14,000

East Renfrewshire 12,000 Glasgow City 10,000 Inverclyde 8,000

North Lanarkshire

6,000

Renfrewshire

4,000

South Lanarkshire

2,000

West Dunbartonshire

4.38

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

House prices have increased in all areas from 1999 to 2008, tailing off in 2008 for lower-quartile prices in particular. Prices have been higher in East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire, even for the lower quartile (Figure 4.12) and median (Figure 4.13) price ranges. However, prices have latterly fallen of in 2009, even if new build prices have recovered in some areas (Figure 4.14 and Technical Appendix TA05).

Figure 4.12

Lower quartile prices (SNS)

1 3 0 ,0 0 0 1 2 0 ,0 0 0 E as t D u n b a r t o n sh i r e

1 1 0 ,0 0 0

E a s t R e n f r e w sh ir e 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 G l a sg o w C i t y 9 0 ,0 0 0 In v e r c ly d e

8 0 ,0 0 0 7 0 ,0 0 0

N o r t h L a n a r k sh ir e

6 0 ,0 0 0

R e n f r e w sh ir e

5 0 ,0 0 0

S o u t h L a n a r k sh ir e

4 0 ,0 0 0

W est D u n b a r t o n sh i r e

3 0 ,0 0 0 9 9 9 1

0 0 0 2

1 0 0 2

2 0 0 2

3 0 0 2

4 0 0 2

Figure 4.13

5 0 0 2

6 0 0 2

7 0 0 2

8 0 0 2

Median prices (SNS)

230,000 210,000 E ast Dun ba rton sh ire

190,000

E ast Renfrew sh ir e 170,000 Gla sg ow City 150,000 Inver cly de 130,000

No rth La na rk sh ire

110,000

Renfre w sh ir e

90,000

Sou th La na rk sh ire

70,000

Wes t Dun ba rton sh ire

50,000 9 9 9 1

0 0 0 2

1 0 0 2

2 0 0 2

3 0 0 2

4 0 0 2

5 0 0 2

6 0 0 2

7 0 0 2

8 0 0 2

Figure 4.14

4.39

New Build Mean Prices (SNS)

This can be shown spatially in terms of housing sub market areas, mapping average house prices for 2009-2010 (Figure 4.15) and changes over 2004-2010 (Figure 4.16), also lower quartile versus lower incomes (Figure 4.17). There is a spatial pattern to affordability, with house prices highest in the East Dunbartonshire and western Glasgow area, lowest in Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire and North Lanarkshire. Significant price growth is evident in East Renfrewshire and Airdrie-Coatbridge. A similar picture exists for the lower quartile of house prices, although growth is significant in the Cumbernauld area. Affordability is likely to be a particular problem where there are concentrations of low income in areas of high house prices, as shown in Figure 4.17 for western Glasgow, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire.

Figure 4.15

Figure 4.16

Average house prices, 2009-2010 (Sasines)

Growth in average house prices, 2004 to 2010 (Sasines)

Figure 4.17

Lower quartile house prices vs low income (Sasines)

Other key drivers of change 4.40

The other key drivers of change relate to sustainability, in particular with regard to travel behaviour. Other than Glasgow City, around 60% to 70% of households use the private car to travel to work (Figure 4.18). This may reflect levels of car ownership (Figure 4.19) â&#x20AC;&#x201C; in Glasgow City, around 50% of households have no access to a car â&#x20AC;&#x201C; but it is uncertain as to whether lack of a car is by circumstances (affordability or parking availability) or by choice (accessibility).

Figure 4.18

Percentage of households travelling to work by car (SNS)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Figure 4.19

1999-2000 2001-2002 2003-2004 2005-2006

Percentage of households without access to a car (SNS)

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Conclusion 4.41

The two key parameters are the overall level of demand/need for housing which is driven by the overall change in the number of households (the outcome of natural change in the population, migration and average household size) and the tenure choices which households make.

4.42

Population change and the formation of new households are expected to result in continued demand for new housing. An aging population with increased incidence of disability will require refurbished or replacement dwellings, suitable for their needs, where such housing stock is not adequate. There is a trend towards smaller households, but the wider economy may act against this in the short to medium term. Also, smaller households do not necessarily translate into a need for less living space.

4.43

The housing market has been characterised by house price growth and localised affordability issues until the economic downturn of late 2007 onwards. House prices have fallen with some return to growth perhaps evident for the new build sector, although the lack of competitive mortgage lending has perhaps increased problems with affordability, in particular for first-time buyers who must find larger deposits to secure a mortgage. This adds to the problem of affordability for certain groups and in some areas, despite the fact there is no strategic â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;supplyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; issue underpinning lack of affordability. It is possible that house prices will continue to be volatile over the next few years.

4.44

Wider factors other than housing supply should also be considered as impacting upon affordability, in particular accessibility.

The GCV Housing Market Area Framework _________________________________________________________ 5.1

The HNDA Guidance encourages local authorities to assess housing need and demand in terms of housing market areas. HMAs are defined as geographical areas which are relatively self-contained in terms of housing demand, i.e. a large percentage of people moving house or settling in the area will have sought a dwelling only in that area.

5.2

The use of a Housing Market Area (HMA) framework was developed in the 1980s for the Strathclyde Structure Plan; this was revised for the 2000 Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure Plan and updated in 2006. The framework relates to the operation of functional housing markets relating to demand for private/market housing. A comprehensive review of the HMA framework has been conducted for this HNDA.

5.3

With regard to the consideration of housing need (i.e. predominantly the requirement for social rented housing), the GCV HMP Core Group concluded that the most appropriate geographical framework was the eight Local Authority areas made up of 31 sub-areas. This reflects the way in which housing registers and allocation systems for social rented housing are currently operated by Local Authorities and Registered Social Landlords (RSLs). For many in housing need, housing choices are constrained by low incomes, but also by allocation policies and availability of property at the time. This approach also recognises that demand for owner occupied and private rented housing, and need for social rented housing, are complementary components of the GCV housing system, but with quite different dynamics and geographies.

5.4

Although cross-boundary movement of tenants is acknowledged, there is limited data currently available to construct any satisfactory understanding of these movements and of any â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;quasi-marketâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;.

5.5

The use of Local Authority areas and sub-areas is consistent with the approach adopted in the past for local Housing Needs Assessments. For some authorities it has been possible and convenient for the same Housing Market Sub Area boundaries, identified in relation to private/market housing demand, to be used also for assessing affordable housing need.

5.6

Although using local authority boundaries as market areas would have the merit of simplicity and more readily available data, this approach is considered unsatisfactory, since local authority administrative boundaries do not represent functional housing markets.

Deriving the Housing Market Area framework 5.7

5.8

The HMA framework used for the GCV area was derived through an iterative process as follows: •

the underlying geography of 63 settlement areas was defined by the eight Councils

•

analysis of new and second-hand house-buying moves, from the Sasines [Land Register], allowed movers’ origin and destination addresses to be linked with sufficient detail to allow construction of an origin/destination matrix showing moves in and between the 63 areas

•

where links between areas were strongest, these areas could be merged; once the matrix was reformulated for the reduced number of areas, the process was repeated

•

four iterations reduced the original 63 settlement areas to thirteen building blocks which formed the basis of the HMA framework; these were examined to determine if they were self-contained or formed part of a wider market area.

The resulting HMA framework comprises: DUMBARTON & VALE OF LEVEN: separate self-contained HMA INVERCLYDE: separate self-contained HMA Wider HMA operating in the EASTERN CONURBATION with 4 Sub Market Areas: o Airdrie and Coatbridge o Motherwell o Clydesdale o Hamilton Wider HMA operating in the CENTRAL CONURBATION with 7 Sub Market Areas: o Greater Glasgow North and West o Strathkelvin and Springburn o Glasgow East o Cumbernauld o Greater Glasgow South o Renfrewshire o East Kilbride Wider HMA operating across the GCV CONURBATION.

5.9

A three-tier system therefore provides the framework for comparing (private sector housing) supply and demand in the GCV area. This tiered structure allows account to be taken of the complexity of the HMAs in the Conurbation by allocating that element of housing demand regarded as mobile across groups of Sub Market Areas. For instance, the limits to mobility between the Eastern and Central Conurbation imply that most mobile demand should be met at this second tier level; only a small proportion of mobile demand should be met at first tier, GCV Conurbation level. Local demand on the other hand should be met at third tier, Sub Market Area level. Dumbarton & Vale of Leven and Inverclyde (excluding Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village) operate as self-contained HMAs.

5.10

A detailed explanation of the methodology for defining housing market and sub market areas is given in Technical Appendix TA01: A Housing Market Area Framework.

5.11

Figure 5.1 illustrates the GCV Housing Market Area Framework.

Figure 5.1

GCV Housing Market Area Framework

Demographic Change in the GCV Area _________________________________________________________ INTRODUCTION 6.1

As part of the Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) for the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley (GCV) area, a set of population and household projections has been prepared. The present paper provides a context for these projections, via a commentary on (a) recent demographic change in the GCV area, and (b) the main results of these projections.

6.2

The paper covers the topics: (1) Population change by Component (section 2), (2) Population change by Age (section 3), and, (3) Household change (section 4).

6.3

The paper covers demographic change both Conurbation-wide and at local level. For the latter the paper uses the eight Council areas within the Conurbation and/or the 31 Council sub areas defined for use in Local Housing Strategies.

POPULATION CHANGE BY COMPONENT Figure 6.1

Estimated and Projected Population â&#x20AC;&#x201C; HNDA scenarios

Figure 6.1 - Estimated and Projected Population Glasgow and Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 2,000,000

1,950,000

1,900,000

population estimate

1,800,000

planning scenario lower migration scenario

1,750,000

1,700,000

1,650,000

1,600,000

19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 20 21 20 23 20 25

population

1,850,000

year

6.4

Figure 6.1 shows that between 1981 and 2003 there was a steady decline in the population of the GCV area: from 1,946,000 in 1981 to 1,745,000 in 2003. This means a total loss of around 200,000 people. In the 1980s the rate of population loss was 12,700 per year. In the 1990s the rate of population loss reduced to 6,900 per year.

6.5

Since 2003, the GCV area population has risen by approximately 10,000: from 1,745,000 in 2003 to 1,755,000 in 2008.

6.6

For the period beyond 2008, the HNDA has identified two scenarios: a planning scenario and a lower migration scenario. More detail on these scenarios will be given below. The planning scenario shows further population growth of 67,000, to a population level of 1,822,000 by 2025. The lower migration scenario shows a more moderate growth of 23,000, to a population level of 1,778,000 by 2025.

Estimated and Projected Net Migration – HNDA scenarios 6.7

The two scenarios identified in the HNDA differ in the migration assumptions used (see Figure 6.2). The planning scenario assumes a constant net migration of +1,050 per year for the next 10 years, with a resumption of further trend growth thereafter. The lower migration scenario assumes that, after the initial years, the net migration will be constant, at a rate of -1,050 per year, for the whole projection period. Further detail on these assumptions, and how they were derived, can be found in the Technical Appendix “Projections of Population and Households – Description of Assumptions and Results”. Figure 6.2 - Estimated and Projected Net Migration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 5,000

migration estimate

-10,000

planning scenario lower migration scenario

-15,000

-20,000

-8 19 2 83 -8 19 4 85 -8 19 6 87 -8 19 8 89 -9 19 0 91 -9 19 2 93 -9 19 4 95 -9 19 6 97 -9 19 8 99 -0 20 0 01 -0 20 2 03 -0 20 4 05 -0 20 6 07 -0 20 8 09 -1 20 0 11 -1 20 2 13 -1 20 4 15 -1 20 6 17 -1 20 8 19 -2 20 0 21 -2 20 2 23 -2 4

-25,000 19 81

net migration

-5,000

year

6.8

The planning scenario assumes that the improvement over time in the migration position for the Conurbation, which is evident from Figure 6.2, will continue into the future, although at a lower rate than in the past decades. The initial assessment by Oxford Economics has resulted in the assumption of a 10-year delay, due to the economic downturn, before the improvement in migration will resume. The final assessment by Oxford Economics has indicated that the lower migration scenario is more consistent with their assessment of economic prospects for the GCV area.

6.9

Figure 6.3 gives the pattern of net migration flows in 2007/08. It shows that the total net inflow into the Conurbation (2,071) is accounted for by international migration (2,026). There have been sizable net flows into Glasgow from Overseas (3,111), Rest of UK (879) and Rest of Scotland (710). There has been a net flow from Glasgow to Rest of the GCV area (-2,889), particularly to North and South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire.

6.10

This pattern of long-distance migration flow into Glasgow City, with a re-distribution of the population to the Rest of the Conurbation, has led to a substantial rise in the ethnic minority population in Glasgow. A recent study indicates that, between 2001 and 2008, Glasgow’s ethnic minority population (including the category “Other White”) has risen by around 25,000 (from 7.2% of the population in 2001 to 11.4% of the population in 2008).

6.11

Figure 6.4 gives the estimated net migration by age band in 2007/08. The Table shows the sizable net inflow of young adults (3,856, age 15 to 29) into the GCV area, and particularly into Glasgow City (4,797). There have been net outflows from East Dunbartonshire (-456), East Renfrewshire (-388) and Inverclyde (-141). Glasgow City has lost families (-945, age 0 to 14, and -1,295, age 30 to 44) and East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, North and South Lanarkshire have been net gainers of families.

6.12

The above illustrates Glasgowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s position within the Conurbation as an area, where young people move to and settle. Once they are older and form a family, there is a tendency to move out to the Rest of the Conurbation. This has implications for the age structures of the population in Glasgow and in the Rest of the Conurbation, which are different. This issue will be explored further in Section 3.

Estimated and Projected Natural Population Change â&#x20AC;&#x201C; HNDA scenarios 6.13

The change in population due to natural change, i.e. the difference between the number of births and deaths, represented an annual gain of about 1,500 in the 1980s, but turned to an average annual loss of nearly 1,000 in the second half of the 1990s. Since 2003/04, there has been a substantial rise to a gain of over 1,000 in 2007/08 (see Figure 6.5). Figure 6.5 - Estimated and Projected Natural Change Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 4,000

natural change population

3,000

2,000

1,000

natural change planning scenario lower migration scenario

-1,000

-2,000

20 2

0 20 2

8 20 1

20 1

20 0

2 10

20 0

19 9

19 8

6 58

19 8

-3,000

year

6.14

Natural change accounts for the major part of the projected future population growth in the period to 2025. For the HNDA planning scenario, the projected population growth of 67,000 is the result of an accumulated natural change of 41,000 and accumulated net migration gains of 26,000. For the HNDA lower migration scenario, the projected population growth of 23,000 is the result of an accumulated natural change of 35,000 and accumulated net migration losses of 12,000.

6.15

Net in-migration is positively related to natural change, as the inflow of young adult females has a positive impact on the number of births. For that reason the HNDA planning scenario, with a higher migration assumption, also has a higher population gain due to natural change than the lower migration scenario (see Figure 6.5).

6.16

The projected sizable gains in population due to natural change are a feature of the early part of the projection period (see Figure 6.5). After 2018, the ageing population is expected to lead to a falling number of births and a rising number of deaths.

Projected Population Change â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Comparison with 2006 Plan projections 6.17

This section gives a comparison of the projection results for the HNDA Planning Scenario and the projection results used for the 2006 Structure Plan Update (2006 Plan). Differences have arisen, due to changes in the migration assumptions and in the outlook on natural change.

6.18

The migration assumptions for the 2006 Plan (see Figure 6.6) were based on an improving trend in migration, estimated for the base period 1992 to 2004. The fluctuations in assumed migration values for the initial years reflect the expected impact of the asylum seeker contract for Glasgow. This contract was for the period up till July 2006, which led to the assumption of a negative impact on net migration after that date. Figure 6.6 - Estimated and Projected Net Migration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 Comparison HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections 5,000

net migration

-5,000

migration estimate

-10,000

planning scenario 2006 Plan Update

-15,000

-20,000

19 81 -8 19 2 83 -8 19 4 85 -8 19 6 87 -8 19 8 89 -9 19 0 91 -9 19 2 93 -9 19 4 95 -9 19 6 97 -9 19 8 99 -0 20 0 01 -0 20 2 03 -0 20 4 05 -0 20 6 07 -0 20 8 09 -1 20 0 11 -1 20 2 13 -1 20 4 15 -1 20 6 17 -1 20 8 19 -2 20 0 21 -2 20 2 23 -2 4

-25,000

year

6.19

In the period 2004 to 2008 actual net migration levels for the GCV area have been higher than projected, which can be explained by the extension of the asylum seeker contract, the arrival of Eastern European migrants, as well as a more positive migration position for migrants to and from England and Wales.

6.20

It has been noted above that, for the HNDA planning scenario, the improvement in net migration is assumed to be delayed by ten years, due to the economic downturn. In the period beyond 2012, therefore, the net migration assumed for that scenario is considerably lower than the net migration assumed for the 2006 Plan.

6.21

It is clear from Figure 6.7, that the improvement in the natural change position for the GCV area in recent years, was much faster than projected for the 2006 Plan. This is mainly the result of a sizable increase in the number of births: from 18,600 in 2001/02 to 20,800 in 2007/08. Over that period, the number of deaths reduced by almost 1,000: from 20,500 in 2001/02 to 19,600 in 2007/08. Figure 6.7 - Estimated and Projected Natural Change Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 Comparison HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections 4,000

natural change population

3,000

2,000

1,000

natural change planning scenario 2006 Plan Update

-1,000

-2,000

324

122

20 2

920

20 2

718

20 1

516

20 1

314

20 1

112

20 1

910

20 1

708

20 0

506

20 0

304

20 0

102

20 0

900

20 0

798

19 9

596

19 9

394

19 9

192

19 9

990

19 9

788

19 8

586

19 8

384

19 8

182

-3,000

year

6.22

The combination of actual migration levels, which were higher than projected in the initial years 2004 to 2008 (see Figure 6.6), and a more positive natural change position for the whole projection period (see Figure 6.7), have resulted in higher projected population levels for the HNDA planning scenario, as compared with the 2006 Plan projection (see Figure 6.8).

Figure 6.8 - Estimated and Projected Population Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area 1981 to 2025 Comparison HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections 2,000,000

1,950,000

1,900,000

population

1,850,000 population estimate planning scenario

1,800,000

2006 Plan Update

1,750,000

1,700,000

1,650,000

20 25

20 23

20 21

20 19

20 17

20 15

20 13

20 11

20 09

20 07

20 05

20 03

20 01

19 99

19 97

19 95

19 93

19 91

19 89

19 87

19 85

19 83

19 81

1,600,000

year

Estimated Population Change 2001-2008 for Council Sub Areas 6.23

The GCV area has been divided into 31 Council sub areas for use in Local Housing Strategies (see Appendix, Map A1). The Appendix contains a series of Maps and Tables, which show various aspects of recent demographic change for these areas. Maps A2 to A4 show, respectively, the annual population change, the natural change and the net migration for the period 2001 to 2008.

6.24

It is clear from Table A1 and Map A2, that the highest annual rates of population growth have been in two areas in Glasgow, i.e. “Central and West” (1.0% per year) and “Greater Pollok and Newlands/Auldburn” (0.8% per year), and that “Inverclyde East” has had the highest rate of population decline (-1.2% per year).

6.25

A comparison of total population change (Map A2) and net migration (Map A4) shows the effect of natural change on the total population change. Some areas are relatively stable in terms of net migration, but show population decline due to natural change, e.g. “Govan and Craigton”.

6.26

Natural change and net migration can work in the same direction: in “Clydebank”, “Bearsden and Milngavie”, “Maryhill/Kelvin and Canal”, “Johnstone/Elderslie”, “Paisley/Linwood” and “Inverclyde East”, the population has declined through both natural change and net migration loss. On the other hand, the population in “Pollokshields and Southside Central” has grown through both natural change and net migration gain.

6.27

Natural change and net migration can also work in opposite directions: in “Cumbernauld”, “East Kilbride” and “West Renfrewshire”, sizable natural change population gains have compensated for net migration losses, resulting in stable overall populations. Some areas with substantial in-migration have reduced rates of population growth due to natural change, e.g. “Glasgow West”, “East Centre and Calton”, “Rutherglen and Cambuslang”, “Clydesdale” and “Inverclyde West”.

Projected Population Change 2008-2025 for Council Areas 6.28

The migration assumptions for the Council area projections have been based on net migration in the 10-year period 1998-2008. Therefore the projected population change by Council area generally reflects patterns in the recent past (see Figure 6.9 and Appendix, Table A2). It was noted before that the higher projected annual population changes, in comparison with estimated annual population change in 2001-2008, are mainly due to higher natural change.

6.29

Because migration assumptions for Council areas have been based on average net migration in 1998-2008, a comparison with average net migration in 2001-2008, shows up some differences (see Appendix, Table A2). For that reason, the migration assumptions for East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire are higher, and the migration assumption for Glasgow City is lower, than average net migration in 20012008.

Changes in Natural Change Position 2001-2008 for Council Areas 6.30

Between 2001 and 2008 the “natural” population change for the GCV area rose by 3,010 (from a loss of -1,859 in 2001/02 to a gain of 1,151 in 2007/08, see Figure 6.10).

6.31

Figure 6.10 shows that the natural change has not increased for East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. All other Council areas show an increase, and about half of the overall increase has taken place in Glasgow City (1,543 of 3,010).

6.32

The above change is also reflected in the projections. Table A2 (see Appendix) gives the estimated (for 2001-2008) and projected (for 2008-2016 and 2016-2025) population change, split by the components, i.e. natural change and net migration. For the Planning Scenario, the higher annual “natural” population change, at 2,299 in 2008-2016, compared with -636 in 2001-2008, represents a rise of 2,935. Over half of this rise (1,649=1,121-(-528)) is expected to take place in Glasgow. This is related to the different age profile of Glasgow’s population, compared to the population living in the Rest of the Conurbation.

POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE Estimated and Projected Population by Age – GCV Area 6.33

Figure 6.11 gives details on the age-breakdown of the GCV area population in 1991 to 2025. The Table shows that, since 1991, the population has declined by 68,000, to 1,751,000 in 2000. After that year the population continued to decline until 2003, after which the population started to rise, reaching 1,755,000 in 2008. The population is projected to rise further in both scenarios for the HNDA.

6.34

Figure 6.11 has incorporated the effect of the planned rise in the pensionable age in the definitions of people of working age and of retirement age. The pensionable age is 65 for men, 60 for women until 2010. Between 2010 and 2018 the pensionable age for women increases to 65, and between 2018 and 2020 the pensionable age for both men and women increases to 66.

6.35

Since 1991, the number of children has reduced by 57,000, at an annual rate of 2,700 in 1991-2000 and 4,100 per year in 2000-2008. The numbers are projected to stabilise at the 2008 level of around 315,000. The HNDA planning scenario shows a limited growth to 319,000 and the HNDA low migration scenario shows a small decline to 309,000.

6.36

The working age population has reduced by 43,000 in 1991-2000 (an annual rate of -4,800) and has increased by 29,000 in 2000-2008 (an annual rate of +3,600). At 2008 the working age population is 1,118,000. After 2008 the projected HNDA scenarios give different results: â&#x20AC;˘ the planning scenario shows a further rise by 4,100 per year, to 1,150,000 in 2016, with, subsequently, a smaller rise of 1,500 per year, to 1,164,000 in 2025. â&#x20AC;˘ the low migration scenario shows a rise by 2,800 per year, to 1,140,000 in 2016, with a subsequent fall by 1,000 per year, to 1,131,000 in 2025.

6.37

Over the full projection period, 2008-2025, the planning scenario envisages a somewhat lower growth in the working age population (of 2,700 per year, compared with 3,600 per year in 2000-2008) and the low migration scenario envisages only limited growth (an increase of 800 per year) in the working age population. However, this includes the effect of the rise in the pensionable age on the working age population. Without the rise in the pensionable age, the working age population would have been projected to reduce by 2,500 per year in the planning scenario, and by 4,400 per year in the low migration scenario, in the period 2008-2025 (see Figure 6.12).

6.38

In 1991-2000, the number of people of retirement age has been almost constant, despite a considerable fall in the overall population. Since 2000, the number of people of retirement age has increased by 1,000 per year, to 322,000 in 2008. After 2008, the retirement-age population is projected to decline by about 500 per year in 2008-2016, and to rise by around 2,200 per year in 2016 to 2025. However, this includes the effect of a rise in the pensionable age. Without this rise in the pensionable age, the projected retirement-age population would have increased much faster, i.e. by over 6,000 per year, as compared with around 1,000 per year, over the whole projection period, 2008-2025 (see Figure 6.12).

6.39

Figure 6.12 gives the projected population change by age-band category, both with and without the planned rise in the pensionable age included, for the total projection period and for the two periods 2008-2016 and 2016-2025.

6.40

Past and projected population change can also be examined by looking at population age/sex pyramids (see Figures 6.13 and 6.14). Figure 6.13 - Population GCV area Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate for 1991 with 2008 Blue shows an excess in2008

Red shows an excess in1991

90+

Males

Females

0 20,000

6.41

15,000

10,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Figure 6.13 gives a comparison of the age profile of the GCV area population in 1991 and in 2008. Over these 17 years there have been sizable reductions in the numbers of children and young adults (in their twenties or early thirties) and significant increases of middle-aged people (in their forties and fifties) and elderly people (age 70+).

Figure 6.14 - Population GCV area Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate 2008 with projection 2025 Blue shows an excess in2025

Red shows an excess in2008

90+

Males

Females

0 20,000

6.42

15,000

10,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Figure 6.14 gives a comparison of the age profile of the GCV area population in 2008 and in 2025. The 2025 position reflects the projected value for the HNDA planning scenario. Over these 17 years it is projected that there will be reductions in the numbers of young adults (in their twenties) and middle-aged (in their forties). The number of children is projected to show very little change. This Figure demonstrates the expected ageing of the population, with sizable increases projected for preretirement and elderly people (age 55+).

Estimated Population Age Profile for Council Sub Areas 6.43

Detail on the population age profile for the Council sub areas is given in the Appendix, Table A3. Using statistical analysis, the sub areas have been grouped into clusters with a similar age profile. This led to the following five clusters (see also Appendix, Table A4): 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

Concentration of young adults, with 35% of the population in age group 16-29 More young adults, with 48% of the population in age group 16-44 Average age profile, with 23% of the population in age group 16-29 Average age profile, with 40% of the population in age groups 0-15 and 45-59 More pre-retirement and elderly, with 56% of the population in the age group 45+

Clusters 3 and 4 have an age profile that is closest to the average for the GCV area. 6.44

Map A5 in the Appendix shows the geographical distribution of these clusters. Cluster 1 consists of one sub area, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Glasgow Central and Westâ&#x20AC;?, an area with high numbers of young people and students. Clusters 2 and 3 represent sub areas with, proportionately, higher numbers of young adults. These sub areas are all within Glasgow City. There are relatively more elderly in cluster 3 areas (21% age 60+), than in cluster 2 areas (17% age 60+).

6.45

Outside Glasgow City, there is little difference in the age profiles for the sub areas, with the exception of cluster 5 sub areas “Bearsden and Milngavie” and “Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village”. For these sub areas, the number of pre-retirement and elderly people is well above average (56% age 45+, compared with GCV area average of 47% age 45+).

6.46

The two sub areas “Baillieston, Shettleston and Greater Easterhouse” and “Greater Pollok and Newlands/Auldburn”, which are in Glasgow City, have an age profile that is closer to the profile for the rest of the Conurbation, rather than the profile for the rest of Glasgow City.

6.47

The above illustrates a point made earlier, i.e. that the age profile of Glasgow’s population is significantly different from that of the rest of the Conurbation. The same issue arises, when the population change by age band in 2001-2008 is compared for the various clusters (see Figure 6.15 below).

6.48

The population age 60+ has increased by 1,785 (=544+1,241) per year in the GCV area, but all of this increase has taken place in the “Rest of Conurbation” clusters 4 and 5. In the “Glasgow City” clusters 1 to 3 the population age 60+ has actually decreased.

6.49

The population age 30-44 has reduced by 5,909 per year, but this reduction has almost totally occurred in the “Rest of Conurbation” clusters 4 and 5.

6.50

The population age 16-29 has increased by 3,806 per year in the GCV area. It is clear from Figure 6.15 that more than half of this increase has taken place in the “Glasgow City” clusters 1 to 3.

6.51

Given this discrepancy in the age profile of Glasgow City and the Rest of the Conurbation, the next section will look at projected change for Glasgow City and the Rest of the Conurbation separately, within the context of an analysis by Council area.

Projected Population Change 2008-2025 by Age for Council Areas 6.52

Figure 6.16 shows that, for Glasgow, the number of young adults in their twenties is projected to reduce considerably. Increases are projected in the numbers of children, adults in their thirties/early forties, and adults in their late fifties and sixties. Figure 6.16 - Population Glasgow Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate 2008 with projection 2025 Blue shows an excess in2025

Red shows an excess in2008

90+

Males

Females

0 6,000

6.53

4,000

2,000

4,000

6,000

Figure 6.17 shows that the projected changes for the Rest of the GCV area are quite different. The number of people in their forties/early fifties is expected to reduce. Sizable increases are projected in the number of people of all ages 55 and over. Figure 6.17 - Population Rest GCV Age Pyramid - Comparison of estimate 2008 with projection 2025 Blue shows an excess in2025

Red shows an excess in2008

90+

Males

Females

0 12,000

8,000

4,000

8,000

12,000

6.54

It was already observed previously that the number of children is expected to be relatively constant over the next 17 years. This is a significant change relative to the situation in 2001-2008, when the number of children reduced by 4,100 per year. The planning scenario projects an initial reduction at 197 per year in 2008-2016, with a subsequent rise of 612 per year in 2016-2025. The lower migration scenario projects reductions of 451 per year in 2008-2016 and 247 per year in 2016-2025 (see Figure 6.18). Figure 6.18 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Number of Children by Council area

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total

Estimate 2001-2008 -391 -178 -1,430 -305 -319 -404 -357 -315 -3,700

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 -255 -11 -119 161 534 380 -98 -50 -13 -9 -45 -11 -104 161 -98 -9 -197 612

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 -278 -55 -131 119 447 -10 -110 -84 -47 -107 -63 -81 -154 34 -116 -64 -451 -247

6.55

Figure 6.18 shows that, in 2008-2016, the number of children is expected to rise in Glasgow City and to decline in the Rest of the Conurbation, with East Dunbartonshire showing the highest reduction. In 2016-2025, the number of children is expected to rise in East Renfrewshire and, under the planning scenario, also in Glasgow City and South Lanarkshire.

6.56

A different geographical split is again evident for the working age population. Under both scenarios, the working age population is expected to rise in 2008-2016, with the largest increases projected for Glasgow City, North and South Lanarkshire, and East Renfrewshire (see Figure 6.19). In East Dunbartonshire, Inverclyde and Renfrewshire the working age population is expected to reduce.

6.57

For the period 2016-2025, the planning scenario shows a slowdown in the rise of the working age population (1,521 per year, compared with 4,058 per year in 20082016). The lower migration scenario indicates that the working age population will reduce after 2016, which will result in a working age population in 2025, which will be around 13,000 above the 2008 level. Figure 6.19 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Working Age Population by Council area

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total

Estimate 2001-2008 -472 -128 3,541 -238 298 -267 641 -56 3,319

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 -117 -419 326 64 2,241 1,424 -214 -320 736 460 -103 -177 1,147 617 42 -128 4,058 1,521

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 -192 -547 231 -63 1,760 236 -260 -395 567 167 -187 -366 920 245 -29 -261 2,810 -986

6.58

The number of people of pensionable age is expected to reduce by about 500 per year during 2008-2016. Numbers are expected to reduce in Glasgow and to increase in North and South Lanarkshire, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire (see Figure 6.20).

6.59

The population of pensionable age is expected to rise substantially after 2016 in all Council areas, with the highest increases in North and South Lanarkshire. Figure 6.20 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Pensionable Age Population by Council area

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total

6.60

Estimate 2001-2008 359 279 -1,321 61 641 236 823 30 1,109

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 134 213 79 217 -1,300 281 -9 70 268 561 7 126 351 735 -44 105 -513 2,307

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 135 207 75 206 -1,324 231 -9 66 255 541 0 113 342 707 -35 106 -562 2,176

Figure 6.20 shows that, despite an ageing population in the GCV area, the number of people of retirement age is expected to go down by about 500 in 2008-2016. This is due to the planned rise in the pensionable age, which will take place over the projection period. Figure 6.21 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Population Age 75+ by Council area

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total

Estimate 2001-2008 224 158 -148 56 316 145 445 45 1,241

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 269 366 178 281 -91 369 89 203 617 915 244 430 640 970 54 204 2,000 3,738

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 273 364 178 276 -104 344 88 200 610 905 240 421 638 960 60 208 1,984 3,680

6.61

Figure 6.21 shows sizeable increases in the population age 75+, of around 2,000 per year in 2008-16, and around 3,700 per year in 2016-2025. Again the highest increases are projected for North and South Lanarkshire Council areas.

6.62

Tables A5 and A6 (see Appendix) give more detail on the projected population by age-band for the Council areas within the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area.

HOUSEHOLD CHANGE Population in Households and in Communal Establishments 6.63

In 2001, 24,246 people were resident in a Communal Establishment (CE) in the GCV area (see Appendix, Table A7). Between 2001 and 2008, it is estimated that the number of residents in CEs has gone up by 200 per year (see Figure 6.22). In Glasgow and Renfrewshire, the number of CE residents has risen by 435 per year, but elsewhere in the Conurbation there have been significant reductions. These estimates are based on the GROS 2006 estimates of population in CEs by age band for the 8 Council areas. From these estimates, rates by population age band have been derived, and these rates have been applied to the 2008 population estimates, and to the population projections for 2016 and 2025. Figure 6.22 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change of Population in Communal Establishments

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley

6.64

Estimate 2001-2008 -68 -17 407 -15 -29 28 -74 -33 200

Planning Scenario Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 2008-2016 2016-2025 16 24 15 23 15 22 15 22 -110 56 -125 28 8 16 8 15 54 81 52 78 24 42 23 39 72 105 71 102 6 13 6 13 85 358 66 321

The number of CE residents is expected to go up further over the projection period. The largest increases are expected in North and South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire. These expected increases are the result of an ageing population in these Council areas. Estimated and Projected Households â&#x20AC;&#x201C; GCV Area Figure 6.23 - Estimated and Projected Households - HNDA scenarios 950,000

900,000 h o u s 850,000 e h o l d 800,000 s

household estimates planning scenario lower migration scenario

750,000

700,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 year

6.65

The annual household change in 2001-2008, at 4,900 per year, was only marginally above the annual household change in 1991-2001, at 4,600 per year (Figure 6.23 shows no upward change after 2001 in the slope of the curve). This is somewhat surprising as, in 1991-2001, the population fell by 6,900 per year, and, in 2001-2008, the population rose by 700 per year. That such a change in the population position would have such a small impact on the rate of household change, points to a significant change in the rate of household formation.

6.66

This conclusion is confirmed by a comparison of the actual change in the number of households between 2001 and 2008, with the change that would have occurred if the rate of household formation during the 1990s had continued. Figure 6.24 shows that the estimated annual change, at 4,902 for the GCV area, was 454 lower than the projected change, at 5,356 (based on household formation rates in the 1990s). This difference was entirely due to a lower than projected household growth for Glasgow City: an estimated annual change of 1,253, compared with a projected annual change of 2,600. For the other 7 Council areas, the estimated change has been higher than the projected change. Figure 6.24 - Comparison of estimated and projected annual change in households 2001-2008 changes due to changes due to total stock-based estim change population household projected estimated minus proj size and age formation annual change annual change annual change 2001-2008 2001-2008 2001-2008 2001-2008 2001-2008 East Dunbartonshire 2 43 45 116 71 East Renfrewshire 70 15 85 107 23 Glasgow City 787 1,812 2,600 1,253 -1,347 Inverclyde -120 131 11 14 2 North Lanarkshire 564 556 1,120 1,343 223 Renfrewshire -56 255 199 319 120 South Lanarkshire 793 416 1,209 1,587 378 West Dunbartonshire -61 149 88 163 75 Glasgow & Clyde Valley 1,980 3,376 5,356 4,902 -454

6.67

Figure 6.24 gives a split of the projected annual household change by component. Changes in the population size, and in the age profile of the population, account for 1,980 of the projected annual household change. The remainder, at 3,376 per year, or almost two thirds of the projected change, is due to people forming smaller households. In Glasgow the evidence indicates that the latter component has slowed down considerably in 2001-2008.

6.68

An examination of household changes for Glasgow City over 2001-2008, using data from the Scottish Household Survey (SHS), indicates a virtually constant average household size, of 2.09. This compares with a projected reduction in the average household size from 2.05 in 2001 to 1.94 in 2008, based on household formation rates in the 1990s. For the Rest of the GCV area, SHS data indicates a reduction in average household size (from 2.40 in 2001 to 2.29 in 2008), which corresponds more closely to the projected reduction (from 2.35 in 2001 to 2.26 in 2008).

6.69

This analysis raises questions about the validity of using the household formation rates in the 1990s, as a basis for the HNDA household projections. It is uncertain, however, whether the changes found in 2001-2008 reflect a permanent change in household formation trends, or a temporary difference due to e.g. higher house prices in 2001-2008. The HNDA household projections are used to assess need and demand in the future. It would not be appropriate, therefore, to reduce future requirements, based on a lower rate of household formation in 2001-2008, which could be a result of supply constraints. There was a need to consider, what adjustments should be made to the HNDA household projections.

6.70

For the lower migration scenario (with projection results close to those of the GROS principal projection) it was considered important to be consistent with the methodology applied by GROS in their projections. The GROS methodology is based on household formation between 1991 and 2001, the two Census years, without an adjustment for household formation post 2001 (except for a household calibration at the base year). Therefore, it has been decided to apply the GROS household projection methodology to this option without any adjustment. Implicitly it has been assumed that, following the recent (2001-2008) changes, household formation will get back on track with the trends seen in the 1990s.

6.71

For the planning scenario, a different approach has been chosen to address the above issues. Future household formation trends have been based on household formation in the 1991-2008 period, rather than 1991-2001. This has the advantage that use is made of the most up-to-date information. The more extended period 19912008 was taken as a base, rather than 2001-2008, in order to avoid relying exclusively on household formation in a particular set of circumstances, i.e. higher house prices in 2001-2008, as a basis for projecting the future.

6.72

The impact on the household projection results, of using either of the two approaches on household formation, is limited for the GCV area as a whole. However, as the slowdown in household formation did take place in Glasgow, using the 1991-2008 base period does result in a significant reduction of future household growth in Glasgow. To some extent this is matched by higher future household growth elsewhere in the Conurbation.

6.73

With respect to the household projection results for the GCV area, the planning scenario shows an increase from 804,700 in 2008 to 859,100 in 2016 (annual rate of 6,800) and to 918,400 in 2025 (annual rate of 6,600). The lower migration scenario shows an increase from 804,700 in 2008 to 854,900 in 2016 (annual rate of 6,300) and to 901,100 in 2025 (annual rate of 5,100).

6.74

These household projections indicate an accelerated annual rise in the number of households, relative to the rate of household change in 2001-2008. It is important to emphasize here, that these projections are based on past trends in household formation (in the 1990s) and have been prepared to assess future need and demand. As the result of the economic slowdown, with lower levels of private sector housing completions, and housing completions in the social sector likely to be affected by public sector expenditure constraints, it is expected that actual household growth will be considerably below projected levels in the coming years.

Figure 6.25 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Households by Type - GCV area household type 1 adult 2 adults 3+ adults 1 adult with child(ren) 2+ adults with child(ren) total households

6.75

Estimate 2001-2008 projected using SHS 5,567 2,961 1,365 2,728 -644 1,167 1,310 -994 -2,696 -961 4,902 4,902

Lower Migration Scenario Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 2008-2016 2016-2025 6,707 6,377 6,572 5,809 2,062 1,629 1,924 1,302 -821 -1,146 -851 -1,209 1,338 1,424 1,257 1,189 -2,481 -1,699 -2,626 -1,964 6,805 6,585 6,276 5,126

The same warning also applies to the projected households by type (see Figure 6.25). Again, the projected changes by household type reflect household formation trends in the 1990s. Scottish Household Survey (SHS) data for 2001-2008 indicate that the actual rate of growth for single person households (at 2,961 per year) has been far less than projected (at 5,567 per year). For single adult family households the SHS data indicate a drop in numbers (-994 per year), rather than a rise, as projected (1,310 per year). Households with 3 or more adults have risen (1,167 per year) rather than fallen, as projected (-644 per year), and family households with two or more adults have not fallen at the rate projected (a fall of only -961 per year, and not -2,696 per year). In view of the changes in household formation that have taken place in 2001-2008, it is pointed out that the projections by household type must be used with caution and interpreted in the light of the differences, as presented in Figure 6.25 (columns 1 and 2) and Table A8 (see Appendix). Figure 6.26 - Estimated and Projected Annual Change in Households by Age of HRP - GCV area age - household reference person 16 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60 to 74 75+ total households

6.76

Estimate 2001-2008 1,909 -1,708 3,919 -6 788 4,902

Planning Scenario Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 2008-2016 2016-2025 368 -190 240 -410 351 3,488 53 2,677 3,203 -2,502 3,146 -2,777 1,476 3,064 1,444 2,977 1,406 2,725 1,394 2,659 6,805 6,585 6,276 5,126

Figure 6.26 gives the projected changes in the number of households by age of the household reference person. The number of households with a reference person aged 60+ increased by almost 800 per year in 2001-2008 and is projected to grow by about 2,800 in 2008-2016 and by about 5,700 per year in 2016-2025.

Projected Household Change – Comparison with 2006 Plan Projections Figure 6.27 - Estimated and Projected Households Glasgow and Clyde Valley area 1991 to 2025 Comparison of HNDA Planning Scenario and 2006 Structure Plan Update projections 950,000

900,000

h o u s e h o l d s

850,000 household estimates planning scenario 2006 Plan Update 800,000

750,000

700,000 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 year

6.77

The 2006 Structure Plan Update projections showed, for the period 2008-2018, a population growth of 1,300 per year and a household growth of 7,700 per year. Despite the projection of a higher rate of population growth, at 3,500 per year, the HNDA planning scenario shows a lower rate of household growth, at 6,800 per year (see Figure 6.27). It was noted before (in section 2), that the higher annual population changes are mainly due to natural change, in particular a higher number of births. The latter affects the distribution of households by type (more families), but has a limited impact on the projected number of households. Another factor is that the projections for the 2006 Structure Plan update used household formation rates, derived from 1991 and 2001 Census data, for a different set of household types. The HNDA projections have used the household formation rates obtained from GROS, which have also been used in the GROS household projections. Use of the latter rates has reduced the projected annual household growth.

Estimated Household Change 2001-2008 for Council Sub Areas 6.78

Map A6 in the Appendix shows the geographical pattern, within the Conurbation, of annual household change in 2001-2008. A comparison with Map A2, which gives the pattern for the annual population change, shows some differences. This mainly reflects a difference in the rate of change for the average household size, with some sub areas showing a faster reduction, than others. Table A9 in the Appendix gives a comparison of annual population and household change. In several sub areas of Glasgow, the annual population growth exceeds the annual household growth, which indicates an increase in average household size. This will be related to the slowdown in the rate of household formation in Glasgow, which was noted in earlier sections. In contrast, a faster change towards more smaller households has taken place in Glasgow “Central and West” and “East Centre and Calton”, as well as in “Dumbarton/Vale of Leven”, and parts of South Lanarkshire, i.e. “Hamilton” and “Clydesdale”.

Estimated Household Type Profile 2001 for Council Sub Areas 6.79

Detail on the household type profile for the Council sub areas is given in the Appendix, Table A10. Using statistical analysis, the sub areas have been grouped into clusters with a similar household type profile. This led to the following four clusters (see also Appendix, Table A11): 1. Smaller adult and family households – with fewer families - 23% of households 2. Average household profile, with some more families – 28% of households 3. Somewhat larger households, with some more families – 29% of households 4. Larger adult and family households, with more families – 31% of households

6.80

Map A7 in the Appendix shows the geographical distribution of these clusters. Sub areas of Cluster 1, with higher concentrations of single person households, are mainly in Glasgow City, but also include Paisley/Linwood. Cluster 2 sub areas contain more family households relative to Cluster 1 areas and tend to be located in urban areas with a greater concentration of social rented housing, e.g. “Inverclyde East”, “Clydebank”, “Baillieston, Shettleston and Greater Easterhouse” and “Motherwell”. The household size for Cluster 3 sub areas is larger than the Conurbation average. These sub areas are predominantly to be found in South Lanarkshire, and in parts of North Lanarkshire and East Dunbartonshire. Cluster 4 sub areas have the largest households. These sub areas are primarily located in areas of predominantly owner occupied housing, e.g. “Bearsden and Milngavie”, “Eastwood”, “West Renfrewshire” and “Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village”.

Projected Household Change 2008-2025 for Council Areas 6.81

Figure 6.28 gives the estimated and projected annual household change for each of the Council areas. Tables A12 to A15 (see Appendix) give more detail on estimated and projected number of households by household type, and by age of the household reference person (see also Figures 6.25 and 6.26, which present that information at GCV area level). Figure 6.28 - Estimated and Projected Annual Household Change by Council area

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley

6.82

Estimate 2001-2008 116 107 1,253 14 1,343 319 1,587 163 4,902

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 173 171 225 288 2,533 2,289 86 43 1,511 1,472 359 347 1,653 1,704 264 271 6,805 6,585

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025 105 70 170 205 2,830 2,123 60 -8 1,309 1,163 255 164 1,350 1,257 198 152 6,276 5,126

As expected, the GCV area annual household growth in 2008-2016 is higher for the planning scenario (6,805 per year), than for the lower migration scenario (6,276 per year). However, that is not the case for Glasgow City. This is a result of the decision to use different household formation trends for the two migration scenarios. For the planning scenario, the positive impact on household growth from higher net migration in Glasgow is “cancelled out” by the use of household formation rates from a base (1991-2008), which includes the lower than average household growth in Glasgow in 2001-2008.

6.83

With respect to the projected household change by household type (Appendix Tables A12 and A13), it was noted before (in paragraph 6.75) that caution is needed in the use of these projections. This applies particularly to Glasgow City, where there was a change in the pattern of household formation in 2001-2008, as compared with the inter-Census period 1991-2001 (see Appendix, Table A8). Future household growth could be significantly different from these projections.

6.84

The projected household change by age of household reference person (Appendix Tables A1 and A15) mirrors the projected population change by age-band (see paragraph 6.33). For example, the sizable increase in the number of older people households (with a household reference person age 60+) in 2008-2016, is projected to take place in the seven Council areas, excluding Glasgow City. After 2016, an increase in older people households is expected for Glasgow City, but at a lesser rate than for other Council areas in the GCV area.

CHAPTER 6 ANNEX List of Tables A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 A10 A11 A12 A13 A14 A15

Annual Population Change 2001-2008 by Component for GCV Sub Areas Estimated and Projected Annual Population Change by Component Population Age Profile 2008 for Council Areas and Sub Areas in the GCV area Population Age Profile 2008 for Clusters of Sub Areas in the GCV area Estimated and Projected Population GCV area by Age-Band – HNDA planning scenario Estimated and Projected Population GCV area by Age-Band – HNDA low migration scenario Population in Communal Establishments and in Households Estimated Annual Changes by Household Type 2001-2008 Annual Population and Household Change 2001-2008 for GCV Sub Areas Household Type Profile 2001 for Council Areas and Sub Areas in the GCV area Household Type Profile 2001 for Clusters of Sub Areas in the GCV area Estimated and Projected Households by Household Type Estimated and Projected Annual Household Change by Household Type Estimated and Projected Households by Age of Household Reference Person Estimated and Projected Annual Household Change by Age of Reference Person

List of Maps A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7

Local Authority Sub Areas Annual Population Change 2001-2008 Annual Natural Change 2001-2008 Annual Net Migration 2001-2008 Age Profile Classification 2008 Annual Household Change 2001-2008 Household Type Classification 2001

CHAPTER 6 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ANNEX â&#x20AC;&#x201C; TABLES Table A1 - Annual Population Change 2001-2008 by Component for GCV Sub Areas

Council area or sub area Bearsden and Milngavie Strathkelvin East Dunbartonshire Eastwood Levern Valley East Renfrewshire Baillieston and Shettleston and Greater Easterhouse Central and West East Centre and Calton Govan and Craigton Greater Pollok and Newlands/Auldburn Langside and Linn Maryhill/Kelvin and Canal North East Pollokshields and Southside Central West Glasgow City Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village Inverclyde Airdrie and Coatbridge Cumbernauld Motherwell North Lanarkshire Johnstone/Elderslie North Renfrewshire Paisley/Linwood Renfrew West Renfrewshire Renfrewshire Clydesdale East Kilbride Hamilton Rutherglen and Cambuslang South Lanarkshire Clydebank DMA Dumbarton/Vale of Leven West Dunbartonshire Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area

% annual population change -0.33% -0.55% -0.47% 0.07% -0.30% -0.03% -0.68% 0.99% 0.12% -0.26% 0.80% -0.43% -0.42% 0.49% 0.61% 0.32% 0.14% -1.23% 0.61% 0.56% -0.57% 0.28% 0.19% 0.13% 0.19% -0.36% -0.13% -0.40% 0.09% -0.02% -0.25% 0.62% -0.01% 0.42% 0.59% 0.37% -0.35% -0.37% -0.36% 0.04%

Source: General Register Office for Scotland - Data Zone estimates

% annual natural change -0.10% -0.02% -0.05% 0.06% -0.01% 0.04% -0.13% -0.01% -0.55% -0.33% 0.17% 0.11% -0.30% 0.15% 0.33% -0.24% -0.09% -0.21% -0.38% -0.08% -0.25% 0.09% 0.36% 0.03% 0.13% -0.25% 0.01% -0.17% 0.08% 0.18% -0.08% -0.17% 0.12% 0.03% -0.11% -0.01% -0.19% -0.08% -0.13% -0.04%

% annual net migration -0.24% -0.53% -0.41% 0.01% -0.28% -0.07% -0.55% 1.00% 0.67% 0.08% 0.64% -0.54% -0.12% 0.34% 0.28% 0.56% 0.23% -1.03% 0.99% 0.63% -0.32% 0.19% -0.17% 0.10% 0.06% -0.11% -0.14% -0.23% 0.01% -0.19% -0.17% 0.79% -0.12% 0.39% 0.69% 0.38% -0.16% -0.30% -0.23% 0.08%

Table A2 - Estimated and Projected Annual Population Change by Component Estimate 2001-2008 TOTAL CHANGE East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total NATURAL CHANGE East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total NET MIGRATION East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV area total

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025

-504 -27 790 -481 620 -436 1,107 -340 729

-237 285 1,475 -321 992 -141 1,395 -100 3,347

-217 442 2,084 -300 1,012 -62 1,513 -33 4,440

-335 175 882 -378 776 -250 1,107 -180 1,798

-395 262 457 -413 600 -334 985 -219 943

-56 37 -528 -210 426 -146 -36 -123 -636

33 127 1,121 -108 755 68 263 40 2,299

1 238 1,443 -127 613 63 225 64 2,519

25 116 1,085 -115 739 59 241 28 2,178

-25 203 1,205 -150 563 26 151 22 1,994

-449 -65 1,318 -271 194 -290 1,144 -217 1,364

-270 158 354 -213 237 -209 1,132 -140 1,049

-218 204 641 -173 399 -125 1,289 -97 1,921

-360 59 -203 -263 37 -309 866 -208 -381

-370 59 -748 -263 37 -360 834 -242 -1,051

Table A3 - Population Age Profile 2008 for Council Areas and Sub Areas in the GCV area Council area or sub area Bearsden and Milngavie Strathkelvin East Dunbartonshire Eastwood Levern Valley East Renfrewshire Baillieston, Shettleston and Gr. Easterhouse Central and West East Centre and Calton Govan and Craigton Greater Pollok and Newlands/Auldburn Langside and Linn Maryhill/Kelvin and Canal North East Pollokshields and Southside Central West Glasgow City Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village Inverclyde Airdrie and Coatbridge Cumbernauld Motherwell North Lanarkshire Johnstone/Elderslie North Renfrewshire Paisley/Linwood Renfrew West Renfrewshire Renfrewshire Clydesdale East Kilbride Hamilton Rutherglen and Cambuslang South Lanarkshire Clydebank DMA Dumbarton/Vale of Leven West Dunbartonshire Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area

0-15 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% 14.1% 13.6% 14.0% 13.5% 7.7% 10.2% 12.0% 14.1% 11.6% 11.4% 13.1% 12.2% 12.9% 11.7% 12.9% 11.6% 12.8% 12.4% 13.7% 13.9% 13.3% 13.6% 13.4% 13.1% 12.5% 12.2% 13.1% 12.7% 12.5% 13.4% 12.9% 12.8% 12.9% 13.2% 12.6% 12.9% 12.6%

16-29 14.9% 17.1% 16.2% 15.0% 17.5% 15.7% 20.0% 35.4% 25.6% 22.6% 20.1% 21.9% 24.5% 22.7% 23.2% 20.8% 24.1% 19.5% 15.6% 10.9% 17.7% 18.5% 17.4% 18.4% 18.2% 17.0% 16.5% 19.0% 17.8% 13.8% 17.6% 15.8% 17.2% 17.8% 17.8% 17.3% 19.0% 18.4% 18.7% 19.7%

30-44 16.5% 18.4% 17.7% 18.1% 18.8% 18.3% 20.4% 23.8% 21.6% 21.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.8% 24.4% 25.3% 21.5% 22.5% 18.9% 19.9% 18.0% 19.2% 21.7% 21.7% 21.5% 21.6% 19.9% 19.9% 20.9% 20.8% 20.8% 20.6% 20.2% 20.6% 20.8% 20.8% 20.6% 20.1% 20.1% 20.1% 21.1%

45-59 29.3% 28.1% 28.6% 28.9% 27.5% 28.5% 26.0% 18.6% 21.6% 23.4% 25.3% 24.1% 23.0% 22.6% 22.6% 24.2% 23.1% 26.0% 28.0% 29.7% 26.9% 26.0% 27.0% 25.8% 26.1% 25.6% 29.4% 25.1% 27.0% 30.2% 26.6% 28.0% 26.8% 26.4% 26.8% 26.9% 25.4% 27.1% 26.3% 25.6%

60-74 17.2% 16.1% 16.5% 15.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.2% 9.1% 13.2% 12.7% 12.0% 11.2% 13.3% 11.1% 10.6% 12.3% 11.8% 15.2% 15.9% 18.4% 15.6% 13.9% 14.4% 14.3% 14.2% 16.1% 14.5% 14.8% 15.4% 16.1% 15.1% 15.9% 14.4% 15.3% 14.2% 15.0% 14.2% 15.1% 14.6% 13.9%

75+ 9.3% 7.5% 8.2% 8.7% 7.2% 8.3% 6.9% 5.4% 7.8% 7.9% 6.3% 6.2% 6.9% 6.2% 6.1% 8.1% 6.7% 7.6% 9.0% 10.2% 8.2% 6.3% 5.6% 6.7% 6.3% 8.0% 6.6% 7.8% 6.8% 6.0% 7.3% 7.6% 7.5% 6.8% 7.6% 7.3% 8.2% 6.8% 7.5% 7.1%

60-74 9.1% 11.0% 12.9% 14.6% 17.3% 13.9%

75+ 5.4% 6.2% 7.7% 7.1% 9.4% 7.1%

Source: General Register Office for Scotland - Data Zone estimates Table A4 - Population Age Profile 2008 for Clusters of Sub Areas in the GCV area Cluster of Sub Areas Concentration of young adults - more 16-29 More young adults - more 16-44 Average age profile - more 16-29 Average age profile - more 0-15 and 45-59 More pre retirement and elderly - more 45+ Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area

0-15 7.7% 12.3% 11.7% 13.2% 12.8% 12.6%

16-29 35.4% 22.6% 23.3% 17.9% 14.4% 19.7%

30-44 23.8% 24.9% 21.3% 20.5% 16.7% 21.1%

45-59 18.6% 23.1% 23.1% 26.7% 29.3% 25.6%

Table A5 - Estimated and Projected Population GCV area by Age-Band - HNDA planning scenario Comparison Results for Change in Pensionable Age Included/Not Included HNDA Planning Scenario Change in pensionable age included 2001 2008 2016 2025

Assuming no change in pensionable age 2001 2008 2016 2025

GCV area GCV area 0 to 15 340,900 315,002 313,425 318,931 0 to 15 340,900 315,002 313,425 318,931 16 to ret 1,094,614 1,117,847 1,150,308 1,163,995 16 to 64/59 1,094,614 1,117,847 1,111,876 1,075,546 ret to 74 199,088 198,168 178,062 165,191 65/60 to 74 199,088 198,168 216,494 253,640 75+ 115,608 124,293 140,293 173,931 75+ 115,608 124,293 140,293 173,931 total 1,750,210 1,755,310 1,782,088 1,822,048 total 1,750,210 1,755,310 1,782,088 1,822,048 East Dunbartonshire East Dunbartonshire 0 to 15 21,966 19,230 17,192 17,094 0 to 15 21,966 19,230 17,192 17,094 16 to ret 66,208 62,901 61,969 58,195 16 to 64/59 66,208 62,901 59,399 52,602 ret to 74 13,041 13,989 12,910 11,533 65/60 to 74 13,041 13,989 15,480 17,126 75+ 7,035 8,600 10,752 14,047 75+ 7,035 8,600 10,752 14,047 total 108,250 104,720 102,823 100,869 total 108,250 104,720 102,823 100,869 East Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire 0 to 15 19,166 17,918 16,964 18,416 0 to 15 19,166 17,918 16,964 18,416 16 to ret 53,755 52,859 55,463 56,041 16 to 64/59 53,755 52,859 53,336 51,041 ret to 74 10,197 11,046 10,251 9,676 65/60 to 74 10,197 11,046 12,378 14,676 75+ 6,292 7,397 8,823 11,349 75+ 6,292 7,397 8,823 11,349 total 89,410 89,220 91,501 95,482 total 89,410 89,220 91,501 95,482 Glasgow City Glasgow City 0 to 15 106,342 96,330 100,600 104,017 0 to 15 106,342 96,330 100,600 104,017 16 to ret 367,242 392,028 409,952 422,767 16 to 64/59 367,242 392,028 398,729 396,005 ret to 74 64,669 56,460 46,792 46,001 65/60 to 74 64,669 56,460 58,015 72,763 75+ 40,457 39,422 38,692 42,010 75+ 40,457 39,422 38,692 42,010 total 578,710 584,240 596,036 614,795 total 578,710 584,240 596,036 614,795 Inverclyde Inverclyde 0 to 15 16,306 14,169 13,387 12,933 0 to 15 16,306 14,169 13,387 12,933 16 to ret 51,438 49,775 48,061 45,185 16 to 64/59 51,438 49,775 46,224 40,889 ret to 74 10,176 10,213 9,430 8,230 65/60 to 74 10,176 10,213 11,267 12,526 75+ 6,230 6,623 7,335 9,162 75+ 6,230 6,623 7,335 9,162 total 84,150 80,780 78,213 75,510 total 84,150 80,780 78,213 75,510 North Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire 0 to 15 65,466 63,235 63,133 63,052 0 to 15 65,466 63,235 63,133 63,052 16 to ret 202,390 204,476 210,363 214,502 16 to 64/59 202,390 204,476 203,097 198,005 ret to 74 35,135 37,406 34,617 31,435 65/60 to 74 35,135 37,406 41,883 47,932 75+ 18,189 20,403 25,339 33,574 75+ 18,189 20,403 25,339 33,574 total 321,180 325,520 333,452 342,563 total 321,180 325,520 333,452 342,563 Renfrewshire Renfrewshire 0 to 15 33,517 30,686 30,325 30,229 0 to 15 33,517 30,686 30,325 30,229 16 to ret 107,830 105,960 105,136 103,543 16 to 64/59 107,830 105,960 101,391 94,751 ret to 74 20,138 20,776 18,879 16,143 65/60 to 74 20,138 20,776 22,624 24,935 75+ 11,365 12,378 14,331 18,197 75+ 11,365 12,378 14,331 18,197 total 172,850 169,800 168,671 168,112 total 172,850 169,800 168,671 168,112 South Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire 0 to 15 59,552 57,052 56,224 57,675 0 to 15 59,552 57,052 56,224 57,675 16 to ret 188,264 192,751 201,930 207,479 16 to 64/59 188,264 192,751 194,415 190,699 ret to 74 34,984 37,629 35,319 33,206 65/60 to 74 34,984 37,629 42,834 49,986 75+ 19,540 22,658 27,777 36,508 75+ 19,540 22,658 27,777 36,508 total 302,340 310,090 321,250 334,868 total 302,340 310,090 321,250 334,868 West Dunbartonshire West Dunbartonshire 0 to 15 18,585 16,382 15,600 15,515 0 to 15 18,585 16,382 15,600 15,515 16 to ret 57,487 57,097 57,434 56,283 16 to 64/59 57,487 57,097 55,285 51,554 ret to 74 10,748 10,649 9,864 8,967 65/60 to 74 10,748 10,649 12,013 13,696 75+ 6,500 6,812 7,244 9,084 75+ 6,500 6,812 7,244 9,084 total 93,320 90,940 90,142 89,849 total 93,320 90,940 90,142 89,849

Table A6 - Estimated and Projected Population GCV area by Age-Band - HNDA low migration scenario Comparison Results for Change in Pensionable Age Included/Not Included HNDA Low Migration Scenario Change in pensionable age included 2001 2008 2016 2025

Assuming no change in pensionable age 2001 2008 2016 2025

GCV area GCV area 0 to 15 340,900 315,002 311,393 309,168 0 to 15 340,900 315,002 311,393 309,168 16 to ret 1,094,614 1,117,847 1,140,329 1,131,459 16 to 64/59 1,094,614 1,117,847 1,102,017 1,043,716 ret to 74 199,088 198,168 177,806 164,273 65/60 to 74 199,088 198,168 216,118 252,016 75+ 115,608 124,293 140,162 173,281 75+ 115,608 124,293 140,162 173,281 total 1,750,210 1,755,310 1,769,690 1,778,181 total 1,750,210 1,755,310 1,769,690 1,778,181 East Dunbartonshire East Dunbartonshire 0 to 15 21,966 19,230 17,006 16,511 0 to 15 21,966 19,230 17,006 16,511 16 to ret 66,208 62,901 61,366 56,444 16 to 64/59 66,208 62,901 58,805 50,904 ret to 74 13,041 13,989 12,891 11,473 65/60 to 74 13,041 13,989 15,452 17,013 75+ 7,035 8,600 10,780 14,060 75+ 7,035 8,600 10,780 14,060 total 108,250 104,720 102,043 98,488 total 108,250 104,720 102,043 98,488 East Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire 0 to 15 19,166 17,918 16,870 17,944 0 to 15 19,166 17,918 16,870 17,944 16 to ret 53,755 52,859 54,709 54,141 16 to 64/59 53,755 52,859 52,601 49,243 ret to 74 10,197 11,046 10,216 9,579 65/60 to 74 10,197 11,046 12,324 14,477 75+ 6,292 7,397 8,823 11,310 75+ 6,292 7,397 8,823 11,310 total 89,410 89,220 90,618 92,974 total 89,410 89,220 90,618 92,974 Glasgow City Glasgow City 0 to 15 106,342 96,330 99,904 99,817 0 to 15 106,342 96,330 99,904 99,817 16 to ret 367,242 392,028 406,104 408,226 16 to 64/59 367,242 392,028 394,923 381,663 ret to 74 64,669 56,460 46,696 45,678 65/60 to 74 64,669 56,460 57,877 72,241 75+ 40,457 39,422 38,594 41,694 75+ 40,457 39,422 38,594 41,694 total 578,710 584,240 591,298 595,415 total 578,710 584,240 591,298 595,415 Inverclyde Inverclyde 0 to 15 16,306 14,169 13,293 12,538 0 to 15 16,306 14,169 13,293 12,538 16 to ret 51,438 49,775 47,699 44,141 16 to 64/59 51,438 49,775 45,866 39,874 ret to 74 10,176 10,213 9,434 8,229 65/60 to 74 10,176 10,213 11,267 12,496 75+ 6,230 6,623 7,328 9,130 75+ 6,230 6,623 7,328 9,130 total 84,150 80,780 77,754 74,038 total 84,150 80,780 77,754 74,038 North Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire 0 to 15 65,466 63,235 62,863 61,901 0 to 15 65,466 63,235 62,863 61,901 16 to ret 202,390 204,476 209,013 210,513 16 to 64/59 202,390 204,476 201,754 194,103 ret to 74 35,135 37,406 34,568 31,292 65/60 to 74 35,135 37,406 41,827 47,702 75+ 18,189 20,403 25,283 33,425 75+ 18,189 20,403 25,283 33,425 total 321,180 325,520 331,727 337,131 total 321,180 325,520 331,727 337,131 Renfrewshire Renfrewshire 0 to 15 33,517 30,686 30,182 29,455 0 to 15 33,517 30,686 30,182 29,455 16 to ret 107,830 105,960 104,463 101,167 16 to 64/59 107,830 105,960 100,716 92,408 ret to 74 20,138 20,776 18,858 16,080 65/60 to 74 20,138 20,776 22,605 24,839 75+ 11,365 12,378 14,298 18,091 75+ 11,365 12,378 14,298 18,091 total 172,850 169,800 167,801 164,793 total 172,850 169,800 167,801 164,793 South Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire 0 to 15 59,552 57,052 55,820 56,125 0 to 15 59,552 57,052 55,820 56,125 16 to ret 188,264 192,751 200,107 202,310 16 to 64/59 188,264 192,751 192,629 185,683 ret to 74 34,984 37,629 35,256 32,976 65/60 to 74 34,984 37,629 42,734 49,603 75+ 19,540 22,658 27,764 36,404 75+ 19,540 22,658 27,764 36,404 total 302,340 310,090 318,947 327,815 total 302,340 310,090 318,947 327,815 West Dunbartonshire West Dunbartonshire 0 to 15 18,585 16,382 15,455 14,877 0 to 15 18,585 16,382 15,455 14,877 16 to ret 57,487 57,097 56,868 54,517 16 to 64/59 57,487 57,097 54,723 49,838 ret to 74 10,748 10,649 9,887 8,966 65/60 to 74 10,748 10,649 12,032 13,645 75+ 6,500 6,812 7,292 9,167 75+ 6,500 6,812 7,292 9,167 total 93,320 90,940 89,502 87,527 total 93,320 90,940 89,502 87,527

Table A7 - Population in Communal Establishments and in Households Estimate 2001

Estimate 2008

Total population East Dunbartonshire 108,250 104,720 East Renfrewshire 89,410 89,220 Glasgow City 578,710 584,240 Inverclyde 84,150 80,780 North Lanarkshire 321,180 325,520 Renfrewshire 172,850 169,800 South Lanarkshire 302,340 310,090 West Dunbartonshire 93,320 90,940 Glasgow & Clyde Valley 1,750,210 1,755,310 Population in Communal Establishments East Dunbartonshire 1,278 804 East Renfrewshire 664 544 Glasgow City 11,895 14,747 Inverclyde 1,148 1,045 North Lanarkshire 2,944 2,740 Renfrewshire 2,160 2,359 South Lanarkshire 3,404 2,885 West Dunbartonshire 753 521 Glasgow & Clyde Valley 24,246 25,646 Population in Households East Dunbartonshire 106,972 103,916 East Renfrewshire 88,746 88,676 Glasgow City 566,815 569,493 Inverclyde 83,002 79,735 North Lanarkshire 318,236 322,780 Renfrewshire 170,690 167,441 South Lanarkshire 298,936 307,205 West Dunbartonshire 92,567 90,419 Glasgow & Clyde Valley 1,725,964 1,729,664

Planning Scenario 2016 2025

Lower Migration Scenario 2016 2025

102,823 91,501 596,036 78,213 333,452 168,671 321,250 90,142 1,782,088

100,869 95,482 614,795 75,510 342,563 168,112 334,868 89,849 1,822,048

102,043 90,618 591,298 77,754 331,727 167,801 318,947 89,502 1,769,690

98,488 92,974 595,415 74,038 337,131 164,793 327,815 87,527 1,778,181

930 665 13,866 1,112 3,172 2,551 3,462 568 26,326

1,142 866 14,371 1,255 3,900 2,926 4,405 686 29,551

927 665 13,748 1,111 3,159 2,540 3,456 570 26,176

1,132 862 14,002 1,246 3,863 2,891 4,377 688 29,061

101,893 90,836 582,170 77,101 330,280 166,120 317,788 89,574 1,755,762

99,727 94,616 600,424 74,255 338,663 165,186 330,463 89,163 1,792,497

101,116 89,953 577,550 76,643 328,568 165,261 315,491 88,932 1,743,514

97,356 92,112 581,413 72,792 333,268 161,902 323,438 86,839 1,749,120

Table A8 - Estimated Annual Changes by Household Type 2001-2008

East Dunbartonshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference East Renfrewshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Glasgow City based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Inverclyde based on headship rates based on SHS data difference North Lanarkshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Renfrewshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference South Lanarkshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference West Dunbartonshire based on headship rates based on SHS data difference Glasgow and Clyde Valley based on headship rates based on SHS data difference

2+ adults with child(ren)

total households

1 adult

2 adults

3+ adults

1 adult with child(ren)

229 108 -121

154 311 157

-37 -31 6

28 68 40

-258 -340 -82

116 116 0

160 250 90

102 -155 -258

-31 73 104

32 -60 -92

-155 0 155

107 107 0

1,822 174 -1,649

-260 1,036 1,296

-144 963 1,107

520 -726 -1,246

-686 -193 493

1,253 1,253 0

213 106 -107

26 19 -6

-52 -43 10

22 -75 -97

-195 6 201

14 14 0

1,176 723 -452

520 890 370

-130 -122 8

306 113 -193

-528 -262 266

1,343 1,343 0

508 534 26

151 -99 -250

-106 -38 68

86 -159 -245

-320 80 400

319 319 0

1,163 848 -315

608 784 176

-87 168 255

277 -122 -399

-374 -91 283

1,587 1,587 0

295 217 -78

65 -58 -123

-56 196 252

38 -33 -71

-180 -160 19

163 163 0

5,567 2,961 -2,606

1,365 2,728 1,363

-644 1,167 1,811

1,310 -994 -2,303

-2,696 -961 1,736

4,902 4,902 0

Table A9 - Annual Population and Household Change 2001-2008 for GCV Sub Areas

% annual household change 0.15% 0.35% 0.27% 0.32% 0.27% 0.30% -0.19% 2.49% 1.42% -0.03% 0.50% 0.42% -0.42% -0.63% 0.44% -0.15% 0.45% -0.43% 0.78% 1.76% 0.04% 1.21% 0.98% 0.86% 1.00% 0.03% 0.35% 0.43% 0.52% 0.74% 0.41% 1.72% 0.84% 1.43% 1.05% 1.25% -0.27% 1.09% 0.39% 0.64%

difference -0.48% -0.90% -0.74% -0.25% -0.57% -0.34% -0.50% -1.49% -1.30% -0.23% 0.30% -0.85% 0.00% 1.12% 0.17% 0.47% -0.32% -0.81% -0.17% -1.20% -0.61% -0.93% -0.80% -0.73% -0.81% -0.39% -0.48% -0.83% -0.43% -0.76% -0.67% -1.10% -0.85% -1.01% -0.47% -0.88% -0.08% -1.47% -0.76% -0.59%

Table A10 - Household Type Profile 2001 for Council Areas and Sub Areas in the GCV area Council area or sub area

1 adult

2 adults

3+ adults

Bearsden and Milngavie Strathkelvin East Dunbartonshire Eastwood Levern Valley East Renfrewshire Baillieston, Shettleston and Gr. Easterhouse Central and West East Centre and Calton Govan and Craigton Greater Pollok and Newlands/Auldburn Langside and Linn Maryhill/Kelvin and Canal North East Pollokshields and Southside Central West Glasgow City Inverclyde East Inverclyde West Kilmacolm and Quarriers Village Inverclyde Airdrie and Coatbridge Cumbernauld Motherwell North Lanarkshire Johnstone/Elderslie North Renfrewshire Paisley/Linwood Renfrew West Renfrewshire Renfrewshire Clydesdale East Kilbride Hamilton Rutherglen and Cambuslang South Lanarkshire Clydebank DMA Dumbarton/Vale of Leven West Dunbartonshire Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area

23.7% 26.0% 25.1% 25.1% 27.3% 25.7% 33.9% 48.3% 46.3% 42.7% 34.6% 40.9% 43.3% 41.2% 46.2% 40.6% 41.9% 37.1% 30.5% 27.0% 34.6% 29.6% 26.0% 31.4% 29.5% 33.8% 20.6% 37.7% 34.3% 24.5% 33.3% 27.6% 28.1% 30.4% 34.4% 30.0% 36.2% 32.1% 34.2% 34.5%

32.0% 29.3% 30.3% 30.3% 28.2% 29.7% 24.2% 26.0% 24.6% 24.0% 24.3% 25.2% 24.0% 22.3% 24.3% 23.9% 24.4% 24.6% 31.1% 35.9% 27.1% 26.6% 29.0% 27.3% 27.5% 28.3% 30.6% 27.6% 27.7% 32.3% 28.6% 31.1% 29.8% 28.1% 27.6% 29.1% 25.5% 27.3% 26.4% 26.9%

14.8% 14.7% 14.7% 13.4% 13.7% 13.5% 11.0% 11.5% 8.6% 9.2% 10.7% 9.4% 9.4% 8.2% 8.2% 9.3% 9.7% 11.1% 12.0% 11.7% 11.4% 13.9% 14.1% 12.6% 13.4% 10.9% 16.0% 9.6% 12.0% 13.4% 11.2% 13.2% 12.7% 13.5% 11.4% 12.8% 11.5% 12.4% 11.9% 11.7%

1 adult family 2.7% 4.7% 3.9% 2.9% 6.5% 3.9% 10.4% 4.4% 8.6% 8.5% 9.3% 7.5% 9.1% 10.7% 6.4% 9.8% 8.3% 8.6% 3.3% 1.9% 6.7% 7.1% 6.5% 6.9% 6.8% 7.4% 3.4% 7.0% 5.6% 3.1% 6.0% 4.8% 5.1% 6.3% 6.9% 5.8% 8.5% 6.7% 7.6% 6.9%

2+ adults family 26.8% 25.4% 26.0% 28.3% 24.3% 27.2% 20.6% 9.7% 11.9% 15.6% 21.2% 16.9% 14.2% 17.6% 14.9% 16.4% 15.7% 18.6% 23.2% 23.6% 20.2% 22.8% 24.5% 21.8% 22.8% 19.5% 29.3% 18.1% 20.3% 26.6% 20.9% 23.1% 24.3% 21.7% 19.6% 22.3% 18.3% 21.4% 19.8% 20.1%

1 adult family 7.8% 7.9% 5.8% 2.9% 6.9%

2+ adults family 14.9% 20.5% 23.5% 27.7% 20.1%

Source: General Register Office for Scotland - 2001 Census - Crown Copyright Reserved Table A11 - Household Type Profile 2001 for Clusters of Sub Areas in the GCV area Cluster of Sub Areas

1 adult

2 adults

3+ adults

Smaller adult and family households - fewer families Average household profile - some more families Somewhat larger households - some more families Larger adult and family households - more families Glasgow and the Clyde Valley area

43.0% 33.8% 28.3% 24.1% 34.5%

24.9% 26.2% 28.8% 31.3% 26.9%

9.4% 11.7% 13.6% 14.1% 11.7%

Table A12 - Estimated and Projected Households by Household Type

2008 estimate East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 2016 planning scenario East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 2025 planning scenario East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 2016 lower migration East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 2025 lower migration East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley

total households

1 adult households

2 adults households

3+ adults households

1 adult families

2+ adults families

43,227 35,988 284,533 37,156 143,715 79,037 138,354 42,699 804,709

12,340 10,260 128,367 14,419 48,022 29,213 46,539 16,357 305,517

13,827 11,076 64,370 10,070 40,086 22,764 40,779 11,247 214,219

4,696 3,451 22,352 3,094 14,173 6,371 12,654 3,686 70,477

2,158 1,838 29,198 2,998 12,496 5,879 10,319 3,835 68,721

10,206 9,363 40,246 6,575 28,938 14,810 28,063 7,574 145,775

44,607 37,789 304,798 37,846 155,806 81,912 151,581 44,808 859,147

14,358 11,990 148,615 16,256 58,787 33,500 56,726 18,942 359,174

15,307 12,296 64,857 10,495 45,229 24,161 46,235 12,138 230,718

4,132 3,148 20,835 2,632 12,962 5,541 11,446 3,210 63,906

2,494 2,180 33,835 3,205 14,628 6,390 12,504 4,186 79,422

8,316 8,175 36,656 5,258 24,200 12,320 24,670 6,332 125,927

46,149 40,377 325,398 38,231 169,057 85,036 166,915 47,245 918,408

16,593 14,192 169,122 17,935 70,851 37,765 68,412 21,694 416,564

16,510 13,252 65,427 10,627 49,729 25,355 51,623 12,857 245,380

3,039 2,492 19,656 1,943 10,494 4,249 9,216 2,506 53,595

3,005 2,832 38,086 3,450 17,404 7,288 15,468 4,701 92,234

7,002 7,609 33,107 4,276 20,579 10,379 22,196 5,487 110,635

44,065 37,349 307,175 37,632 154,186 81,077 149,154 44,280 854,918

14,205 11,883 149,844 16,179 58,206 33,164 55,868 18,744 358,093

15,169 12,185 65,402 10,456 44,824 23,959 45,588 12,030 229,613

4,093 3,117 21,016 2,621 12,856 5,500 11,286 3,181 63,670

2,440 2,135 33,983 3,167 14,416 6,295 12,233 4,104 78,773

8,158 8,029 36,930 5,209 23,884 12,159 24,179 6,221 124,769

44,693 39,192 326,281 37,560 164,656 82,555 160,468 45,647 901,052

16,132 13,865 169,927 17,660 69,140 36,697 65,923 21,026 410,370

16,133 12,955 65,876 10,506 48,645 24,776 49,914 12,528 241,333

2,948 2,424 19,781 1,914 10,255 4,149 8,881 2,438 52,790

2,849 2,700 37,695 3,336 16,780 6,979 14,679 4,452 89,470

6,631 7,248 33,002 4,144 19,836 9,954 21,071 5,203 107,089

Table A13 - Estimated and Projected Annual Household Change by Household Type Household Type 1 adult East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 2 adults East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 3+ adults East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 1 adult family East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 2+ adults family East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley

Estimate 2001-2008

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025

229 160 1,822 213 1,176 508 1,163 295 5,567

252 216 2,531 230 1,346 536 1,273 323 6,707

248 245 2,279 187 1,340 474 1,298 306 6,377

233 203 2,685 220 1,273 494 1,166 298 6,572

214 220 2,231 165 1,215 393 1,117 254 5,809

154 102 -260 26 520 151 608 65 1,365

185 153 61 53 643 175 682 111 2,062

134 106 63 15 500 133 599 80 1,629

168 139 129 48 592 149 601 98 1,924

107 86 53 6 425 91 481 55 1,302

-37 -31 -144 -52 -130 -106 -87 -56 -644

-71 -38 -190 -58 -151 -104 -151 -60 -821

-121 -73 -131 -77 -274 -144 -248 -78 -1,146

-75 -42 -167 -59 -165 -109 -171 -63 -851

-127 -77 -137 -79 -289 -150 -267 -83 -1,209

28 32 520 22 306 86 277 38 1,310

42 43 580 26 267 64 273 44 1,338

57 72 472 27 308 100 329 57 1,424

35 37 598 21 240 52 239 34 1,257

45 63 412 19 263 76 272 39 1,189

-258 -155 -686 -195 -528 -320 -374 -180 -2,696

-236 -149 -449 -165 -592 -311 -424 -155 -2,481

-146 -63 -394 -109 -402 -216 -275 -94 -1,699

-256 -167 -415 -171 -632 -331 -486 -169 -2,626

-170 -87 -436 -118 -450 -245 -345 -113 -1,964

Table A14 - Estimated and Projected Households by Age of Household Reference Person (HRP)

total households

age hrp 16 to 29

age hrp 30 to 44

age hrp 45 to 59

age hrp 60 to 74

age hrp 75+

43,227 35,988 284,533 37,156 143,715 79,037 138,354 42,699 804,709

2,522 1,967 51,114 3,899 15,866 8,955 13,781 4,838 102,942

10,063 8,660 86,878 9,359 41,868 21,696 38,085 11,560 228,169

13,725 11,543 71,564 10,765 40,205 22,431 39,934 12,064 222,231

10,604 8,334 46,257 8,166 30,403 16,770 30,030 9,030 159,594

6,313 5,484 28,720 4,967 15,373 9,185 16,524 5,207 91,773

44,607 37,789 304,798 37,846 155,806 81,912 151,581 44,808 859,147

2,897 2,465 48,406 4,093 17,432 9,701 15,661 5,232 105,887

8,812 7,325 99,223 8,425 39,594 19,433 37,263 10,903 230,978

13,578 12,333 82,157 11,172 46,249 24,581 44,618 13,168 247,856

11,375 9,042 47,505 8,704 33,423 17,602 33,744 10,009 171,404

7,945 6,624 27,507 5,452 19,108 10,595 20,295 5,496 103,022

46,149 40,377 325,398 38,231 169,057 85,036 166,915 47,245 918,408

2,702 2,423 46,521 3,683 18,340 9,336 16,320 4,851 104,176

10,854 9,574 108,777 9,385 44,149 22,445 44,053 13,135 262,372

9,738 9,362 82,839 8,778 42,712 20,320 40,609 10,980 225,338

12,351 10,375 58,135 9,630 38,431 19,508 39,112 11,437 198,979

10,504 8,643 29,126 6,755 25,425 13,427 26,821 6,842 127,543

44,065 37,349 307,175 37,632 154,186 81,077 149,154 44,280 854,918

2,856 2,414 48,367 4,049 17,176 9,557 15,320 5,119 104,858

8,552 7,138 99,532 8,301 38,948 19,101 36,364 10,659 228,595

13,439 12,200 83,278 11,125 45,898 24,406 44,011 13,038 247,395

11,296 8,986 48,136 8,711 33,196 17,495 33,358 9,964 171,142

7,922 6,611 27,862 5,446 18,968 10,518 20,101 5,500 102,928

44,693 39,192 326,281 37,560 164,656 82,555 160,468 45,647 901,052

2,600 2,326 45,732 3,578 17,766 8,989 15,573 4,602 101,166

10,215 9,078 106,763 9,030 42,303 21,376 41,562 12,362 252,689

9,351 9,015 84,281 8,621 41,716 19,762 39,047 10,607 222,400

12,132 10,197 59,642 9,602 37,835 19,220 38,054 11,257 197,939

10,395 8,576 29,863 6,729 25,036 13,208 26,232 6,819 126,858

Table A15 - Estimated and Projected Annual Household Change by Age of Household Reference Person Age of Household Reference Person 16 to 29 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 30 to 44 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 45 to 59 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 60 to 74 East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley 75+ East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Glasgow & Clyde Valley

Estimate 2001-2008

Planning Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025

Lower Migration Scenario 2008-2016 2016-2025

23 4 1,231 35 183 142 228 64 1,909

47 62 -339 24 196 93 235 49 368

-22 -5 -209 -46 101 -41 73 -42 -190

42 56 -343 19 164 75 192 35 240

-28 -10 -293 -52 66 -63 28 -57 -410

-362 -301 -72 -220 -93 -329 -167 -164 -1,708

-156 -167 1,543 -117 -284 -283 -103 -82 351

227 250 1,062 107 506 335 754 248 3,488

-189 -190 1,582 -132 -365 -324 -215 -113 53

185 216 803 81 373 253 578 189 2,677

175 195 1,424 149 691 297 805 183 3,919

-18 99 1,324 51 756 269 586 138 3,203

-427 -330 76 -266 -393 -473 -445 -243 -2,502

-36 82 1,464 45 712 247 510 122 3,146

-454 -354 111 -278 -465 -516 -552 -270 -2,777

108 85 -1,044 14 313 98 372 48 -6

96 89 156 67 378 104 464 122 1,476

108 148 1,181 103 556 212 596 159 3,064

87 82 235 68 349 91 416 117 1,444

93 135 1,278 99 515 192 522 144 2,977

171 125 -286 36 249 111 349 32 788

204 143 -152 61 467 176 471 36 1,406

284 224 180 145 702 315 725 150 2,725

201 141 -107 60 449 167 447 37 1,394

275 218 222 143 674 299 681 147 2,659

Housing Supply and Demand / Need Comparison _________________________________________________________ Introduction 7.1

Having established the approach being adopted by the HMPCG in undertaking the Housing Need and Demand Assessment in Chapters 2 and 3, set the Market Context and Geographical Framework in Chapter 5, and outlined the Demographic Context in Chapter 6, we now turn to assessing the housing supply against demand/need to establish housing requirements.

7.2

A detailed assessment is provided in Appendix TA06 ‘Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing’, this chapter serves to summarise the main findings from this report for the Private and Affordable Sectors.

Planning Periods 7.3

The assessment of the requirement for additional housing land for the private sector covers two distinct time periods, determined through SPP (and former SPP3) by the anticipated adoption of LDPs by 2015 (and a 5 year effective land supply 20152020): 2008-2020 a) one year of completions 2008/2009 b) seven years effective land supply 2009-2016 (2009 HLA) c) urban capacity 2016-2020 2020-2025 urban capacity 2020-2025

7.4

The assessment of the requirement for additional land in the affordable sector (social rented and ‘intermediate housing’) is required for the same time periods as the private sector and crucially to meet LHS requirements 2011-2016. It should be noted that for the purposes of this assessment the affordable sector has been defined as the social rented sector and ‘intermediate housing’ products which have been identified as subsidised Low Cost Home Ownership (ref TA04 ‘Affordability Study’).

Comparison of Housing Supply and Demand/Need Overview 7.5

There are several stages required in order to compare housing supply with demand/need to determine housing requirements as set out in the overview of the HNDA model in Chapter 3. These stages are set out in earlier chapters in this document and more detail is given in the technical appendices, particularly TA06 ‘Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing’.

7.6

The geographical framework to assess housing requirements was established in Chapter 5. It is then necessary to estimate stock and households at the base date, 2008 (TA06 Section 3) and consider Backlog Need (TA03). Having established the base position, population and households are projected to 2016, 2020 and 2025 (TA06 Section 5). The next stage in the process, undertaken by Tribal/Optimal Economics, is to tenure the household projections to ascertain demand/need and more detail about this process is available in TA06 Section 6 and TA04 ‘Affordability Study’. This demand/need now has to be compared against supply, which requires stock projections to 2025 (TA06 Section 7), using two approaches to assess housing need. Finally the supply and demand/need are compared to identify housing requirements by tenure.

7.7

Chapters 5 and 6 have dealt with the early stages in the process, so this chapter will now focus on the stages beginning with the household tenure projections.

Household Tenure Projections to 2016, 2020 and 2025 7.8

As mentioned in Chapter 3 the previous Structure Plan tenuring methodology has been replaced by an Affordability Study undertaken by Tribal/Optimal Economics. Results are presented in Figure 7.1 for the GCV city region. The overall methodology and process adopted by Tribal/Optimal Economics are summarised in TA06 ‘Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing’ Section 6 and further detail can be obtained from TA04 ‘Affordability Analysis’.

7.9

The tenured projections require output within two different geographies. For the private sector, the geographical framework for the comparison of supply and demand is the Housing Market Area (HMA) system that was developed for the 2000 Joint Structure Plan and re-examined and reaffirmed for the 2006 Plan. This framework of HMAs has been reviewed again using more recent data on house-buying moves, the outcome of which is presented in TA01 ‘A Housing Market Framework’. For the affordable (predominantly social rented) housing sector, the relevant geography is at the level of local authorities, and for the defined LA sub-areas within these boundaries.

Tenure Split 7.10

For the purposes of the comparison of supply and demand, two tenure categories are required, the private and affordable sectors. Owner occupied and private rented sectors are combined to present the private sector. Although Tribal/Optimal Economics identify the social rented sector as a tenure, in their study they identify a potential ‘intermediate sector’ which identifies households in the social rented sector who may be able to meet their needs with ‘intermediate sector’ products. Tribal/Optimal Economics defines the ‘intermediate sector’ as those newly-forming households that could access low cost home ownership products if they were available, but excluding those who could afford either owner-occupation or private renting. Affordable housing can therefore be expressed in terms of the minimum and maximum contribution that social renting and LCHO products could make to meeting their needs. Together the social rented sector and potential ‘intermediate sectors’ form the Affordable sector.

Households Projection Scenarios 7.11

7.12

Two sets of household projections, the Planning Scenario (C2) and the Low Migration Scenario (A1) have been prepared for the GCV region (ref TA06 Section 5) and both have been tenured by Tribal/Optimal Economics. The preferred scenario for the SDP MIR is the Planning Scenario (C2) and this working draft HNDA presents the outcomes/results for this scenario. The final draft of the HNDA will also present results for the Low Migration Scenario (A1). High and Low Affordability Assumptions Two affordability assumptions have been applied to the household tenure projections Low and High Affordability (as detailed in TA06 Section 2). The high affordability assumption assumes a willingness to spend a higher proportion of income on private rent, which results in a larger private sector, and low affordability assumes that households will only spend a lower proportion of their income on private rent. The result for the GCV area is that: • Under the low affordability assumption, there is significantly slower growth in owner occupation and growth of 10% in the social rented sector. • Under the high affordability assumption, there is continued growth in owner occupation, albeit at a slower pace than in the past and more modest changes in social and private renting.

7.13

While both levels of affordability show different results, the overall finding is of a more stable tenure profile suggesting that growth in owner occupation has levelled and the decline in the social rented sector is slowing. Uncertainty remains in relation to the role of the private rented sector, and the level of affordability in this sector, which has had an effect on the results/outcomes of the tenure projections under both of these assumptions.

7.14

Although both sets of affordability results will be presented in the final draft HNDA, for the purposes of this working draft, the private sector from this point on adopts planning scenario (C2) high affordability and the social rented sector planning scenario (C2) low affordability. This means that the total private sector demand and social rented sector need would exceed the overall number of projected households at 2025.

Household Tenure Projection Summary Results 7.15

• •

•

Overall the GCV area is seeing a projected increase in households under the Planning scenario from 805,000 at the 2008 base date to 918,000 in 2025, an increase of 113,000 households over the projection period ref Figure 7.1. A summary of the household tenure projection results is given below for both affordability assumptions. Private Sector Planning scenario (C2) high affordability: the private sector increases from 567,000 households in 2008 to 684,000 in 2025, an increase of 117,000 households. Planning scenario (C2) low affordability: the private sector increases from 567,000 households in 2008 to 658,000 in 2025, an increase of 92,000 households. Affordable Sector Planning scenario (C2) high affordability: social rented sector households decrease from 238,000 households in 2008 to 235,000 in 2025, a decrease of around 3,000

•

households with some fluctuation in the intervening years. This shows a slowing decline in the social rented sector, and indicates that the sector is stabilising. Planning scenario (C2) low affordability: social rented sector households increase from 238,000 households in 2008 to 260,000 in 2025, an increase of 22,000 households. This results in a corresponding lower increase in private sector households for the low affordability assumption. Figure 7.1 Summary of Household Projections for GCV Area 2008-25 2008

2025

2008-2025 Change

805,000

918,000

113,000

Private sector C2 High

567,000

684,000

117,000

Private sector C2 Low

567,000

658,000

92,000

Social rented sector C2 High

238,000

235,000

-3,000

Social rented sector C2 Low

238,000

260,000

22,000

All Households Private Sector

Affordable (Social Rented) Sector

* figures may not total due to rounding

Projected Tenure Change – Validation of Results 7.16

The results for the projected tenure change from the Tribal/Optimal Economics affordability study represent a significant change compared to the projected tenure change in the 2006 Joint Structure Plan Alteration. For the 2006 Plan it was projected that the social rented sector would reduce from 257,700 households in 2004 (or 33% of all households) to 197,500 households in 2018 (or 22% of all households). The present HNDA projections (planning scenario C2 – high affordability), used for the private sector housing demand/supply comparison, show a reduction from 237,900 in 2008 (or 30% of all households) to 234,700 (or 26% of all households) in 2025.

7.17

For validation purposes, a parallel exercise has been carried out alongside the affordability study, to project future tenure change for the GCV area. This involved the development of a cohort-component model, which projects future populations by tenure, using assumptions on the net population flows into/out of the various tenures. The projected populations are the basis for projected households by tenure.

7.18

The model uses estimated data for the periods 1991-2001 and 2001-2008. For the projection period 2008-2025, the results are remarkably close to the projections prepared by Tribal/Optimal Economics. The number of social rented households is projected to reduce from 237,900 in 2008 to 235,700 in 2025. This represents a marked slowdown in the rate of decline for the social rented sector (-100 per year in 2008-2025), in comparison with the earlier period (-6,200 per year in 2001-2008).

7.19

The model identifies the following factors, which “explain” the smaller decline of the social rented sector in the projection period: 1. A reduced net population outflow from the social rented sector, due to lower levels of Right-To-Buy sales (RTB). In 2001-2008 the net outflow from the social rented sector was about 12,000 people per year. For the projection period 2008-

2025 the RTB levels are expected to reduce to 1,300 per year (compared with 5,100 per year in 2001-2008). This is expected to result in a smaller net population outflow, of about 4,000 per year. 2. A relatively younger population in the social rented sector. In the early 1990s the population living in social rented housing was, on average, considerably older than the population living in private sector housing. This has changed in recent decades. As a result, the population change due to natural causes (i.e. the difference between births and deaths) is expected to be positive in the projection period. In 2001-2008 the number of people living in the social rented sector reduced by almost 2,000 per year, due to fewer births than deaths. 3. Although the population living in the social rented sector is expected to continue to decline, these people are expected to live in, on average, smaller households. Therefore the number of households is expected to show only a small reduction. Existing Need 7.20

Housing requirements need to take account of existing and future need. Existing need refers to Backlog Need and has been identified as 72,000 units across the GCV area (Figure 7.2). Backlog Need has been considered over and above the household projections. An affordability test has been applied to those in Backlog Need by Tribal/Optimal Economics (TA06) and it is considered that 6,000 of those in Backlog Need could potentially meet their needs in the private market and have been added to the private sector demand. The remaining 66,000 have been added to the affordable sector.

Figure 7.2

Current Housing Need: Total Need and Those Able/Unable to Address Needs in the Market - LA level

Local Authority

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Council Inverclyde Council North Lanarkshire Council Renfrewshire Council South Lanarkshire Council West Dunbartonshire Council Glasgow & Clyde Valley SDPA*

Total Backlog Need

4,074 2,918 28,428 4,117 9,041 6,325 13,417 4,517 72,837

Total - Unable to make their own arrangements (upper)

Total able to afford their own accommodation (lower)

i.e. added to Affordable sector household need 3,712 2,635 28,428 3,536 6,951 5,714 11,607 4,091 66,674

i.e. added to Private sector household demand 362 283 0 581 2,090 612 1,810 427 6,163

* Totals may not sum due to rounding Note: Upper estimates of those in backlog need (and corresponding lower estimates of those able to afford to meet their own needs) are reached when we consider whether households can afford market (PRS) accommodation. The lower estimates of those in backlog need (and corresponding higher estimates of those able to afford to meet their own needs) are reached when we consider whether households can afford Intermediate (LIFT) accommodation. Source: Tribal/Optimal Economics Affordability Study

Comparisons of Supply with Demand/Need 7.21

Comparison of supply with demand and need now follow for the private and affordable sectors

Comparison of Private Sector Demand and Supply at 2025 7.22

In order to establish if there is a requirement for additional land for private housing at 2020 and 2025, the projected effective stock is compared with projected demand. This comparison is carried out within the housing market area framework, taking account of mobile demand i.e. while most demand is localised, there is an element that cannot simply be allocated to a particular area and can be considered to be mobile (house buyers may search in more than one housing sub-market area for a home). Dumbarton & Vale of Leven and Inverclyde HMAs are treated as selfcontained market areas and the concept of mobile demand is not applicable. More detail on local and mobile demand can be found in TA06 â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Section 8.

7.23

Focussing on the end of the projection period in Figure 7.3 at 2025, there are no projected shortfalls in supply at any stage of the supply/demand comparison. There is therefore sufficient land currently allocated for private sector housing to meet demand. 97,000 private sector units are required to be built in the period 2009-2025 in the GCV area and as a rough estimate annual completions would be required in the region of 6,000 units (although this varies across the projection period).

Figure 7.3

Projection C2 High Affordability

Comparison of private supply and demand (including lower estimate Backlog Need*) at 2020 Total Demand Total Supply (Stock) Surplus Required Completions Required Annual Completions (2009-25) *Figures may not add due to rounding

7.24

660,000 662,800 2,800 73,700 6,700

Figure 7.4 shows that a significant factor in the increasing surplus of stock over demand projected between 2020 and 2025 is the impact of Backlog Need. In accordance with HNDA Guidance, it is assumed that Backlog Need should be met over a ten-year period: 2009 to 2019. Consequently, the level of completions required to meet both the increase in private demand and Backlog Need by 2020 is significantly higher than that required to meet private demand only in the following five years. Figure 7.4

Projection C2 High Affordability

Comparison of private supply and demand (including lower estimate Backlog Need*) at 2025 Total Demand Total Supply (Stock) Surplus Required Completions Required Annual Completions (2009-25) *Figures may not add due to rounding

7.25

689,800 700,400 10,604 97,400 6,080

For the purposes of this assessment, and recognising the role of intermediate housing products in helping to meet affordable housing needs, any sites in the Housing Land Audit and Urban Capacity Study that are identified for potential shared equity or shared ownership have been excluded from the projections of private sector supply.

Comparison of Affordable Sector Supply and Need at 2016, 2020 and 2025 7.26

As outlined in the introduction and methodology, the HNDA guidance outlines an approach to assess the requirement for social rented housing - this is essentially the established â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Housing Needs Assessmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; method. The basic framework of this model has in recent years been used by local authorities to assess local housing needs to help inform LHS development and is a common recognisable approach in the UK to assessing the housing requirement for social renting housing. Although there is some movement between local authorities in the social rented sector, it is less pronounced than in the private sector and the appropriate geography is the local authority area.

7.27

This method has three separate components: current housing (backlog) need, future housing need and affordable housing supply. Net annual housing need is estimated by summing the annual quota of current housing need to the annual newly arising

need and by then subtracting the future annual supply of affordable housing from this total. A negative figure implies a net surplus of affordable housing. 7.28

The summary results are set out by GCV area and local authority for 2016, 2020 and 2025 in Figure 7.5. For the city region the results show a net housing need for nearly 50,000 affordable households by 2016, and an additional 24,000 in net housing need by 2020 and an additional 7,600 by 2025 – in total there is an estimated 81,000 households with a net housing need over the period 2008-25. It should be noted that Backlog Need is included for the years 2009-19. It should also be noted that the LHS time period is 2011-16. Figure 7.5 Summary of GCV Area Housing Need Requirement in Accordance with Housing Needs Assessment Supply/Need Comparison Model 2008-2025 2008-16

2016-20

C2 Low Affordability East Dunbartonshire 4,375 2,038 East Renfrewshire 2,134 954 Glasgow City 31,914 15,689 Inverclyde 3,026 1,396 North Lanarkshire -1,537 -152 Renfrewshire 1,146 -61 South Lanarkshire 9,158 4,302 West Dunbartonshire -249 -154 GCVSDPA 49,967 24,013 NB. Negative figures are surpluses Backlog Need is included for the years 2009-19

7.29

2020-25

2008-25 Total

1,221 204 9,990 412 -1,879 -2,081 1,279 -1,517 7,630

7,634 3,292 57,593 4,834 -3,568 -995 14,739 -1,919 81,610

More detail on the housing supply and demand/need comparisons can be found in Appendix TA06 ‘Review of Supply and Demand/Need for Housing’.

Intermediate Sector 7.30

In undertaking their Affordability Study, Tribal/Optimal Economics were also asked to identify “of those households unable to meet their housing need in the open market, how many could afford to meet their need using intermediate housing products”. For the purposes of the HNDA, the HMPCG defined the Intermediate Sector as subsidised low cost home ownership (LCHO). Tribal/Optimal Economics in their study identified the Scottish Government’s Low Cost Initiative for First Time Buyers (LIFT) scheme as the most appropriate way to explore ‘intermediate housing’. LIFT provides a range of assistance including new supply, shared equity and open market shared equity.

7.31

Tribal/Optimal Economics, for modelling purposes, identified the intermediate sector as those newly-forming households that could access low cost home ownership products if they were available, but excluding those who could afford either owneroccupation or private renting. Affordable housing needs can therefore be expressed in terms of the minimum and maximum contribution that social renting and LCHO products could make. The intermediate sector figure is therefore expressed as a potential. The maximum potential intermediate level assumes that all of those households which could potentially meet their needs in low cost home ownership products do so because there is no supply constraint, they have a desire to do so, and the household has unrestricted access to mortgage finance. The social rented sector is correspondingly reduced. The minimum potential intermediate sector figure

is zero, which assumes that there is restricted access to LCHO; all households which cannot meet their own needs in the market therefore require to be housed in the social rented sector. 7.32

Figure 7.6 shows the maximum potential number of households that have been assessed as being unable to access market housing (private rented and owner occupation) but who could afford LCHO up to 2016. This identified that under Planning scenario C2 (low affordability) at 2016 the ‘intermediate sector’ could range from zero to 27,000 households if there was no constraint on supply, a desire for the LCHO product, and unrestricted access to mortgage finance. Under Planning scenario C2 (high affordability) the range would reduce: from zero to 5,500 households. The implications of these results will require further consideration. Figure 7.6

Maximum potential LCHO 2016 by LA (Tribal/Optimal Economics)

Local Authority East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCVSDPA - refers to new households 7.33

C2 Low Affordability 786 659 3,138 2,127 7,567 3,738 6,942 2,152 27,109

C2 High Affordability 0 0 0 1,064 1,514 747 1,388 861 5,574

These estimates for a potential intermediate sector should be treated with caution as identified by Tribal/Optimal Economics:

•

The intermediate sector is relatively new so limited statistical information is available.

•

Supply is limited and dependent on a degree of subsidy.

•

There is a lack of real understanding of the choices people will make; even if intermediate products are available, households may not choose to take up the product.

•

The Tribal/Optimal Economics approach is limited, as it focuses on new households only. Intermediate sector housing may be attractive to existing households. Thus it could free up currently occupied social rented or private rented houses, as well as meeting some of the housing requirements of new households.

•

Access to mortgage finance may hinder households moving into this sector.

•

Access to wealth (i.e. initial deposit) has not been taken into account in the analysis.

Household Groups with Specific Housing Requirements ___________________________________________________________________

8.1

Context

Introduction 8.1.1 The HNDA provides an overview of the main issues to be considered in addressing the housing requirements of various household groups with specific needs, using published national data where appropriate to ensure consistency. It provides the basis on which each of the GCV authorities can refine their individual assessments and develop appropriate housing and planning policies, through the LHS and LDP, to address these specific requirements. 8.1.2 Although progress has been made over the years, through a variety of measures, inequalities persist in Scotland and the UK. For those people affected, discrimination may result in social exclusion, restricted employment opportunities, and restrictions in access to goods and services, including housing, health, education, and social services. Some people may experience discrimination on several grounds (multiple discrimination). The HMP, through its eight constituent local authorities, operates within a complex legal and policy framework which commits it to prevent discrimination and promote equal opportunities. 8.1.3 The HNDA Guidance requires HMPs to assess the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;housing requirements of specific household groupsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. Local Authorities also have statutory duties, principally through the Equality Act 2010, to eliminate unlawful conduct, advance equality of opportunity, foster good relations, and to take into account the needs of people relating to age, disability, sex, race, religion and belief, sexual orientation and transgender. The Act also introduces a new requirement for public bodies to have due regard to the need to reduce the inequalities of outcome that result from socio-economic disadvantage. The Equality Act, enacted in April 2010, updates, streamlines and strengthens previous equalities legislation. 8.1.4 The Scottish Human Rights Commission promotes and protects the human rights guaranteed by the European Convention on Human Rights, which form part of the law of Scotland through the Human Rights Act 1998 and the Scotland Act 1998, together with other human rights guaranteed by a wide range of other international conventions and treaties ratified by the UK. For the most part, as a result of the Equality Act, the UK will already comply with a proposed future EU Article 13 Equal Treatment Directive.

Other Equalities issues 8.1.5 The Concordat4 agreed between the Scottish Government and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (CoSLA) sets out the new relationship between the Scottish Government and local government and accepts that although the Scottish Government will set policy direction, it will stand back from micro-managing service delivery. The Government’s purpose within the national performance framework is “to focus the Government and public services on creating a more successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth”. Based on the Government’s National Outcomes and, under a common framework, Local Outcomes which take account of local priorities, the approach is intended to free up local authorities and their partners to meet varying local needs. Local authorities are expected to set out their contribution to the National Outcomes; National Outcome 6 states that “we have tackled the significant inequalities in Scottish society”. Scottish Planning Policy and Guidance 8.1.6 The planning system in Scotland tries to embed consideration of equalities issues through its Scottish Planning Policy (SPP) and Planning Advice Notes (PANs). Policy contained in SPP, and advice in the PANs, are material considerations to be taken into account in development plans and in the development management process. 8.1.7 A more ‘inclusive’ approach to design is emerging – a way of designing products and environments so that they are usable and appealing to everyone regardless of age, ability or circumstances5 and which involves working with users to remove barriers in the social, technical, political and economic processes underpinning building and design. PAN 78 Inclusive Design6 proposes the creation of environments that can be used by everyone – regardless of age, gender or disability. As good practice guidance, it “sets out the roles of those instrumental in delivering more inclusive environments – from developers to designers, local authorities to Access Panels..”

Building Standards 8.1.8 Barrier-free is defined as housing and its environment designed to allow for the needs of almost everyone. This includes:

people with temporary or permanent impaired mobility due to accident, illness or old age and who may use a wheelchair for some of the time

people who have difficulty with steps, bending down or reaching or who lack dexterity

people with impaired sight or hearing

people with impaired memory, learning or reasoning

people pushing and manoeuvring prams.

Concordat between The Scottish Government and local government [the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities]. 14 November 2007. Edinburgh: The Scottish Government/CoSLA. 5 Adapted from definition by English Partnerships. 6 PAN 78 Inclusive Design. March 2006. [Planning and Building Standards Advice Note.] Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Development Department/ Scottish Building Standards Agency.

The key aim of barrier-free housing is to allow people to reach the entrance to their dwelling from a road or parking area and move around the dwelling, access essential rooms including the bathroom, and operate all fittings, services and controls. Good practice in all housing design should give equal emphasis to the needs of less able members of society as it does to the comfort, convenience, safety and security of the occupants in general. 8.1.9 In Scotland all new homes receiving public funding support must be designed to meet the ‘Houses for Varying Needs’ standard, (Part 1). Part 2 of the standard relates to housing with integral support. 8.1.10 The Building Regulations (Domestic) define the minimum functional requirements to be met for all new housing. The Building Standards (Scotland) Regulations 2007 extended standards to address ‘liveability’. This is based around, and developed from, issues included in ‘Housing for Varying Needs’ and the Lifetime Homes concept. However, “it is important for designers to recognise that the guidance given is the minimum to comply with the functional standard and that this may not always equate to recognised good practice 7 for accessibility and the provision of fully inclusive environments.”

The 2010 revision of the Building Regulations for new domestic properties has increased various standards, including those relating to security, noise reduction and carbon reduction. 8.1.11 Some local authorities have complementary planning policies. For example, Glasgow’s recently adopted City Plan 2 (2009)8 now expects all housing providers, in projects of 20 dwellings or above, both houses and flats, to provide 10% to wheelchair standard, or housing that is readily adaptable to meet the standard.

PAN 78 Inclusive Design, 2006. Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Development Department/ Scottish Building Standards Agency (page 9). Glasgow City Plan 2, Part 3 Development and Design Policies: Residential: Policy RES 4 Barrier Free Homes. 2009. Glasgow City Council.

8.2

Families

8.2.1 The needs of families are central to the work of local authorities in determining the housing needs and demands within their area. The composition of family households are wide ranging and diverse, ranging from single parent households to multigenerational families, couples with no children and single people. An emerging issue is that of the growth of new households following relationship breakdown where parents have custody or overnight access to children from the relationship and require accommodation which is larger than the typical size normally associated with a single person household. The findings of the HNDA largely cover the housing needs of families but we recognise the need to ensure a wide range of housing types and sizes are available in areas which are affordable to households across the income spectrum.

8.3

Young People

8.3.1 As shown by the Tribal Affordability Study, young peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s choices are constrained by their income and ability to access the private sector because of the need to provide large deposits for mortgages or private renting, The most significant issue for young households is being able to afford to access the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;property ladderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; without parental or other supports. Some younger households find difficulty in gaining access to social rented housing as they lack priority need points when assessed against other priorities. Similarly, younger households are more likely to require housing of an appropriate size near to locations where they work or study.

8.4

Older People

Introduction 8.4.1 The HNDA is based on published national statistics alongside information provided by each local authority on older people households in their area. This has been augmented following discussions with Age Scotland. Policy Framework 8.4.2 Adding Life to Years (2002)9 recognised that 95% of over 65s live at home [approximately 90% in mainstream and 5% in sheltered or very sheltered], the majority in good health, which should be preserved and enhanced. Only 20% needed help to stay at home. The remainder lived in care homes. In addition, improved primary care and community services would allow a proportion of potential hospital in-patients to be cared for at home. 8.4.3 The debate about how best to address the needs of older people and ensure services are fit for purpose in the future, is set out in various consultation papers and engagement processes, including:

Reshaping Care for Older People programme was launched by the Scottish Government, CoSLA and the NHS in 2009 to engage all interests in reshaping care and support services so that they meet policy objectives in ways that are sustainable.

Housing: Fresh Thinking, New Ideas (2010)10 discussion document includes the housing requirements of an ageing population as one of many issues in the years ahead, and seeks to identify radical new ways to generate investment in affordable housing.

Wider Planning for an Ageing Population – Housing and Communities (2010) identifies a number of important issues relating to housing, suggests appropriate outcomes, and seeks feedback. Underlying this work is the view that current ways of working and delivering services for older people are no longer sustainable. New ways of delivering services, new models of care, and new ways of generating investment, may need to be developed.

8.4.4 The depth of the recent recession, together with the Coalition Government’s Spending Review 201011 to reduce the deficit, will have serious implications for all sectors of the economy, public services and the welfare system. The date at which the State Pension Age will start to rise to 66 has been brought forward to 2018 “in order to ensure this is fiscally sustainable”. An Ageing Population – Demographic Trends 8.4.5 An analysis of the changing demography across the GCV area is set out in Chapter 5 “Demographic Change in the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Area”. This includes discussion and projections relating to population and households by age structure.

Adding Life to Years. Report of the Expert Group on Healthcare of Older People (2002) Edinburgh: Scottish Executive. 10 Housing: Fresh Thinking New Ideas. Housing Policy Discussion document (2010) Edinburgh: The Scottish Government. 11 Spending Review 2010. HM Treasury. Cm 7942 (October 2010).

Housing for Older People 8.4.6 National and local policy is firmly based on the principle of enabling older people to continue to live independently at home or in their community, with appropriate levels of support where required. . 8.4.7 In relation to the private sector, each local authority has published its Scheme of Assistance in accordance with the Housing (Scotland) Act, 2006. These Schemes provide a range of services and support to help older people remain in their home, principally through the provision of grant assisted home adaptations and information, advice and practical support to help maintain or repair their homes. Sheltered and other specialist housing 8.4.8 Table 8.4.1 details the availability of sheltered and other specialist housing for older people, provided by local authorities or housing associations, at March 2009. The figures should be treated with some caution as there are clearly gaps in the data, and there may be some differences in recording mechanisms between authorities and housing associations. This, together with stock transfer to housing associations in Glasgow City and Inverclyde, may explain some of the variation in LA/HA provision between different authority areas. The table suggests that, across the GCV area, there are considerable numbers of houses with community alarms (provided by local authorities) and of sheltered houses (provided both by LAs and HAs, but the majority provided by housing associations). 8.4.9 Since 2001, across the GCV area, the number of very sheltered units increased considerably, from 493 in 2001 to 1,103 in 2009; in seven out of eight authority areas numbers more than doubled. Data from local authorities suggests that numbers have continued to increase between March 2009 and 2010. The number of sheltered housing units, declined slightly across the GCV area from 9,188 in 2001 to 9,001 in 2009 numbers remained more or less stable in three authorities, declined in three authorities, and increased in only two authorities (North Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire). This reflects a slow national decline since 2001, as older sheltered complexes were closed or converted to very sheltered/extra care. There has been a tendency towards decline in medium dependency properties.

TABLE 8.4.1

HOUSING FOR OLDER PEOPLE, MARCH 2009

Authority

Housing for Older People provided by LAs or HAs Very Sheltered

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

Sheltered

Local Authority Housing Association Total 102 102 * 537 537 * 61 61 89 89 109 109 139 139 128 128

Of which Wheelchair adapted

Medium Dependency

Dwellings with Community Alarm

156 260 416 230 152 382 * 3,042 3,042 * 440 440 1,224 615 1,839 331 509 840 1,268 316 1,584 269 189 458

40 n.a. 40 9 n.a. 9 * n.a. * n.a. 64 n.a. 64 15 n.a. 15 114 n.a. 114 n.a. -

n.a. 343 44 387 * 523 523 * 365 365 187 187 107 486 593 290 268 558 230 123 353

530 n.a. 530 360 n.a. 360 * n.a. * n.a. 5,147 n.a. 5,147 297 n.a. 297 1,783 n.a. 1,783 1,532 n.a. 1,532

GCV

1,165 1,165

3,478 5,523 9,001

242 n.a. 242

970 1,996 2,966

9,649 n.a. 9,649

Scotland

498 3,032 3,530

15,632 16,935 32,567

1,934 1,934

6,519 7,272 13,791

32,623 32,623

Sources: Housing Statistics, Scottish Government. Local Authorities from S1B returns by local authorities to the Scottish Government, Communities Analytical Services [augmented by LA own data]. Housing Association data provided by the Scottish Housing Regulator from the Annual Performance and Statistical Return [APSR]. * Local authority stock transferred to Glasgow Housing Association [in the case of Glasgow City Council] and to River Clyde Homes [in the case of Inverclyde Council]. nil n.a. not available

8.4.10 Table 8.4.1 does not include private sector retirement/sheltered housing developments, as no consistent data was available for all authorities. However, there are known to be a number of developments across the GCV area – for instance, 508 private sheltered homes were identified in South Lanarkshire and 115 in East Dunbartonshire. Supply continues to grow, and around 150 one and two bedroom private retirement apartments have recently been completed in Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire. A similar number are at the planning stage in East Renfrewshire and South Lanarkshire. These developments will include some ‘assisted living’ apartments, which aim to bridge the gap between conventional retirement flats and a care or nursing home.

100

Telecare 8.4.11 Telecare is the remote or enhanced delivery of health and social care to people in their own homes by means of telecommunications and computerised systems. The term usually refers to equipment and detectors that provide continuous, automatic and remote monitoring of care needs, emergencies and lifestyle changes, using information and communications technology (ICT) to trigger human responses or to shut down equipment to avoid danger12. Community alarm systems, often referred to as ‘first generation’ telecare, are widely available in Scotland, and allow an individual to contact a call centre 24 hours a day for information or an emergency response. Alarm systems have replaced wardens in some sheltered housing developments. 8.4.12 In line with the Shifting the Balance of Care agenda, the National Telecare Development Programme was launched in 2006, followed in 2008 by publication of the Scottish Government’s Telecare Strategy13. The programme also provided initial funding to promote development of ‘second generation’ telecare services. This advanced technology can automatically: Monitor the home environment to trigger appropriate responses: e.g. smoke, flood and carbon monoxide detectors; extreme temperature detectors to detect failure of central heating in winter; bogus caller and security systems. Monitor movement activity: fall detectors; wandering alarms to safeguard people with memory loss or who become confused; bed occupancy sensors which can turn lights on when someone gets up and send an alarm if they do not return to bed; infrared movement detectors in rooms can trigger investigation if there is lack of movement for an excessive period Monitor vital body signs (‘Telehealth’ equipment) such as pulse, respiration and blood pressure, and trigger intervention when unusual patterns are detected. Following an assessment of needs, appropriate equipment is made available in packages designed to meet specific individual needs. 8.4.13 Recent evaluation of telecare and telehealthcare initiatives14 15 suggests that they have considerable potential to deliver better care to all, across a spectrum of needs, in their own home, using technology to integrate services more cost-effectively and efficiently. There is scope to offer services – both for preventative care and acute care – for older people, and for those with sensory impairments, physical disabilities, mental health problems and learning disabilities. It may gradually become part of everyday life16. Challenges to be met include availability of infrastructure, standardisation of equipment, and funding for further development. 12

Telecare in Scotland (2010) Age Scotland policy paper, prepared by Dr Tony O’Sullivan of Newhaven Research. 13 Seizing the Opportunity: Telecare Strategy 2008-2010 (2008) Edinburgh: Scottish Government. Joint Improvement Team. 14 Beale, Sophie, Sanderson, Diana and Kruger, Jen (2009) Evaluation of the Telecare Development Programme. Report by York Health Economics Consortium, University of York, for the Scottish Government Joint Improvement Team. 15 Jarrold, Kara and Yeandle, Sue (2009) A weight off my mind: Exploring the impact and potential benefits of telecare for unpaid carers in Scotland. Report by the Centre for International Research on Care, Labour and Equalities, University of Leeds, for Carers Scotland. Funding from Scottish Government Telecare Development Programme Joint Improvement Team. 16 Telehealthcare: Time for Action. Report of Scottish Science Advisory Council One-Day Forum on Telehealthcare Technologies for Assisted Living, held at the University of Edinburgh on 27 October 2009.

101

8.4.14 While endorsing the principle of improved support and care for older people in their own homes, potentially with an increasing role for telecare technologies, Age Scotland sounds an important warning17: “Local services and the design of communities is intrinsically important for the future of care for older people, particularly if the direction of travel is towards more care at home. We would not support a future that sees older people cared for at home but unable to leave their houses or participate in their local community.”

Dementia 8.4.15 The Scottish Government recently published Scotland’s National Dementia Strategy (2010)18, with support from CoSLA, Alzheimer Scotland and The Scottish Dementia Working Group. The document estimates that there are approximately 71,000 people with dementia in Scotland, around 2,300 of whom are under the age of 65 [on a pro rata basis to population, this would equate roughly to 23,700 with dementia, 750 of whom under age 65, in the GCV area]. This figure is expected to double over the next 25 years. Prevalence of dementia increases with age, from approximately 1.5% of those aged 65 to 69, to 33% of those aged 90 and over. The majority of those with dementia (64%) live at home, while the remainder live in care homes; up to 70% of the care home population may have dementia. It is estimated that the NHS and local authorities in Scotland currently spend between £600m and £700m per annum on care and treatment associated with dementia. The equivalent of a further £1billion or more is contributed each year by carers. Care Home Provision 8.4.16 Table 8.4.2 details the number of care homes and registered places for older people in the GCV authorities at March 2009. In all authority areas the majority of places are in the private sector. The total number of places available has increased in six of the eight authority areas, between March 2000 and March 2009, most notably so in Inverclyde and North Lanarkshire. East Renfrewshire and Glasgow City have each experienced a decline in the number of places over the period – of 8% and 7% respectively.

Scottish Government Debate: Reshaping the future care of older people (2009) Policy paper by Age Scotland (page 4). 18 Scotland’s National Dementia Strategy (2010) Edinburgh: The Scottish Government.

102

TABLE 8.4.2

CARE HOMES FOR OLDER PEOPLE: HOMES AND PLACES by LOCAL AUTHORITY, MARCH 2009

Authority

Care Homes

Registered places by sector for adults aged 65+ LA / NHS

Private

Voluntary

Total – All Sectors

East Dunbartonshire

548

550

% change in places Mar 2000 – Mar 2009 7%

East Renfrewshire

310

152

496

– 8%

Glasgow City

672

3,305

424

4,401

– 7%

Inverclyde

653

257

913

38%

North Lanarkshire

265

1,932

2,197

31%

Renfrewshire

182

926

250

1,358

13%

South Lanarkshire

324

2,092

333

2,749

10%

West Dunbartonshire

190

405

605

GCV

259

1,670

10,171

1,428

13,269

Scotland

963

5,336

29,211

4,296

38,843

– 1%

Source: Care Homes, Scotland, 2009. Scottish Government National Statistics published 27 April 2010 based on SCHC1 [Scottish Care Home Census] Return March 2009 – Annex Tables 1, 2 and 3. Note: The number of care homes, and places in care homes, as registered with the Care Commission.

Future Requirements 8.4.14 Population and household projections for the GCV area reflect the wider national pattern of an ageing population. Over the projection period 2008-2025 there will be a sizeable increase in the number of older people households (i.e. with a household reference person aged 60+), though some variation may occur between local authority areas. 8.4.15 Most older people prefer to remain in their own home for as long as possible, with appropriate levels of support and care. This will be facilitated by future developments in telecare and assistive technologies and a requirement for mainstream housing in all tenures which is adaptable to changing needs. 8.4.16 A consequence of this change in approach to care provision is increasing demand for very sheltered or extra care housing, both in the private and social rented sectors, rather than conventional sheltered housing.

103

8.5

People with a Disability

Context 8.5.1 Disabled people19 make up approximately one fifth of Scotland’s population, up from 14% in 1991, yet often experience high levels of inequality compared to non-disabled people. For example, only about half of disabled people of working age (50%) are in work, compared with 80% of non-disabled people of working age. Employment rates vary greatly according to the type of impairment a person has – the lowest employment rate is among those with mental health problems (21%). Households containing at least one person with a disability are also more than twice as likely to live in social rented accommodation (28% compared to 11% of households with no disabled member). In contrast, 74% of households containing no member with a disability or long-term illness are in private ownership but only 54% of households with a disability or long term illness. People who have ever experienced homelessness are more likely to have a disability or long-term illness. Households with disabled members may also be more likely to experience financial exclusion and poverty, and require state benefits. 8.5.2 Table 8.5.1 estimates the number of households with one or more persons with a limiting long-term illness (LLTI) or disability, based on the Scottish Household Survey 2007-8. It is important to note that this uses a wider definition – including limiting long-term illness as well as disability (physical or mental impairment). The proportion of households containing a member with a LLTI or disability ranges from 26% to 42% [Scotland average 33%], and in the case of six authorities is lower than the proportion recorded at the 2001 Census. This variation could be due to demographic changes, variation in self-assessed circumstances, or sample size in the SHS. While this provides an order of magnitude of the number of households directly affected by LLTI or disability, it should not be considered a proxy for adaptation requirements. Interrogating the SHS source data further reveals that households comprised of older people are considerably more likely to contain someone with a long-standing health problem or disability. This is also the case for households with a net annual income below £15,000, explained in part by the lower income profile of older households. 8.5.3 The needs of disabled people and wheelchair users are being addressed either through adaptations to mainstream housing or in design of more accessible new housing. However this approach results in only a limited stock of suitable housing, restricting choice for these household groups. In addition, in both owner occupied housing and rented housing some adaptations may be removed when there is a change in occupier to households without disabilities. Independent living may be facilitated in various ways, including a mix of inclusive design, ‘telecare’ and assistive technology, and personal support services.

High Level Summary of Equality Statistics: Key Trends for Scotland (2006) Scottish Executive National Statistics Publication. Also: www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/People/Equality/disability (updated September 2009).

104

TABLE 8.5.1

LIMITING LONG-TERM ILLNESS [LLTI] or DISABILITY by LOCAL AUTHORITY AREA, 2007-2008

Authority

All Households [2008]

Households with one or more persons with a limiting long-term illness Number

Percentage

43,227

11,239

26%

Percentage at 2001 Census 33%

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City

35,988

10,077

28%

32%

284,533

105,277

37%

43%

Inverclyde

37,156

15,606

42%

40%

North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire

143,715

56,049

39%

43%

79,037

30,824

39%

38%

South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

138,354

48,424

35%

40%

42,699

15,372

36%

42%

GCV

804,709

292,868

36%

41%

Source: Scottish Household Survey 2007 and 2008

Client Groups 8.5.4 It was agreed that the HNDA would assess the accommodation needs of Disabled People at local authority summary level. The following paragraphs consider the housing related circumstances of three key client groups: people with physical disabilities, mental health problems, and learning disabilities.

Physical Disability and Sensory Impairment Background 8.5.5 In 2005 it was estimated that 96,000 people in Scotland were registered wheelchair users20 - including users living in communal establishments such as nursing homes, and a very broad spectrum of age groups and complexity of circumstances. This figure should be treated with some caution due to regional differences in identifying and recording â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;registeredâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; NHS service users. It may be an underestimate as an additional number of wheelchair users may obtain services from private or voluntary sector providers rather than the NHS.

Moving Forward: Review of NHS Wheelchair and Seating services in Scotland (Pub. 2006). NHS in Scotland.

105

8.5.6 In terms of sensory impairment, there were estimated to be 35,588 people registered as blind or partially sighted in 200921. Of these, the majority [56%] were blind and the remainder partially sighted. 62% were female, 75% were aged over 65, and 33% had additional disabilities. The Royal National Institute of Blind People [RNIB] considers that the true figure for those who are blind or partially sighted in Scotland is much higher at around 180,000. RNIB has recently warned that the number in Scotland could double by 2030 as a result of an aging population and growing risk factors such as Type 2 diabetes, and has called for a national prevention strategy22. The majority of people who are blind or partially sighted may be able to live in mainstream housing with appropriate adaptations and assistive technology. 8.5.7 The Royal National Institute for Deaf People [RNID] estimates that there are some 758,000 people who are deaf or hard of hearing in Scotland. Many will have undiagnosed hearing loss. There can be substantial waiting lists for NHS audiology services, and many may purchase hearing aids privately. Assistive technology is developing rapidly to meet the daily needs of hearing impaired people, such as telecommunications, alerting devices (such as door bells and smoke alarms) and broadcast media. Housing for People with Physical Disabilities 8.5.8 Local Authorities Schemes of Assistance details the support, including financial support, to help people with disabilities adapt their private sector home to meet their needs. Assistance, including mandatory grant provision, is set out in the Housing (Scotland) Act, 2006. Households in the social rented sector receive support from their landlords to provide equipment or adapt their home to meet the needs of disabled people in their household. 8.5.9 It is possible to make a rather crude estimate of the mismatch at national Scotland level between the number of wheelchair users and adapted housing provision in the social rented sector (see box below). There are no accurate and consistent numbers for wheelchair users at local authority level. As the GCV area has around one third of the Scottish population, a pro rata allocation of the mismatch would suggest around 7,000 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 12,600 social rented houses. This is of the same order of magnitude as figures collected in a survey in 2009 by Inclusion Scotland, a voluntary sector consortium of disability-led organisations and individual disabled people23. Five GCV authorities provided an estimate of unmet need of 6,835, based on the number of disabled people on the waiting list for designed or adapted housing [this excluded East Dunbartonshire, Glasgow City and Renfrewshire].

Registered Blind and Partially Sighted Persons, Scotland 2009. (2009) The Scottish Government National Statistics Publication. 22 www.rnib.org.uk press release 14 June 2010. 23 Homes for Life: FOI Research into accessible housing for disabled people in Scotland (June 2009). Paisley: Inclusion Scotland.

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Estimated of wheelchair users compared to adapted housing, Scotland Scottish estimate of wheelchair users - if 46% in social rented accommodation - if 28% in social rented accommodation Social rented supply adapted for wheelchair use Mismatch

= 96,000 = 44,000 = 6,000 = 38,000

= 27,000 6,000 21,000

Notes: All figures rounded to nearest thousand Estimate of wheelchair users is at 2005, from Moving Forward (2006) NHS Proportion in social rented at 46% derived from Scottish Household Survey 2005 and 2006 and used in an answer in the Scottish Parliament by Stewart Maxwell, August 2007 (referred in www.inclusionscotland.org ). Proportion at 28% assumes similarity of wheelchair users to all disabilities and is also derived from Scottish Household Survey 2005 (Para. 7.5.1 above) The figure of 6,000 supply of adapted social rented houses is a 2009 figure derived from Housing Statistics for Scotland (see Table 7.5.2 below) This assumes each wheelchair user requires an adapted home; some, however, may be in care homes.

8.5.10 Table 8.5.2 below provides data on current social rented housing in the GCV area for people with physical disabilities. The possibility arises of differences in the interpretation of the criteria for housing adapted for people with physical disabilities, particularly in respect of the South Lanarkshire figures. The majority of housing for people with physical disabilities is suitable for ambulant disabled people, with fewer properties adapted for wheelchair use. This may be due to unsuitability of properties for conversion or higher costs involved.

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TABLE 8.5.2 Authority

HOUSING FOR PEOPLE WITH PHYSICAL DISABILITIES by LOCAL AUTHORITY, MARCH 2009/ 2010 Adapted for wheelchair use

HA [2009] 3

Total

LA [2010] 388

661

North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde

GCV

LA [2010] 10

HA [2009] 4

Total

Ambulant disabled

Other adapted

HA [2009] 7

Total

391

LA [2010] n.a.

889

566

118

133

n.a.

134

n.a.

207

229

546

103

649

461

963

114

1,077

7,320

129

7,449

186

151

179

330

1,104

1,296

2,400

8,414

1,481

9,895

1,179

1,182

Scotland 2,492 3,322 5,814 16,422 5,119 21,541 6,398 1,737 8,135 Sources: Housing Statistics for Scotland – Scottish Government. Local authority data based on S1B returns to the Scottish Government, Communities Analytical Services (Housing Statistics). Housing Association data provided by the Scottish Housing Regulator. n.a. not available * LA stock transferred to Glasgow Housing Association and River Clyde Homes [Inverclyde] The Table uses latest data available. 2010 data for Housing Associations not yet available. Housing adapted for wheelchair use – dwellings built or adapted to give extra floor area, whole house heating, and special bathroom, kitchen and other features. Ambulant disabled housing – dwellings for people with disabilities who are not confined to wheelchairs. It is built or adapted to general needs housing standards, but has a level or ramped approach, WC or bathroom at entrance level and other special features. Other specially adapted housing – dwellings with other adaptations, such as those with renal dialysis equipment.

8.5.11 Table 8.5.3 details Care Homes for adults with physical disabilities, by local authority area. Across the GCV area there are 13 care homes offering 239 places, spread across three authority areas. These may be provided by statutory or voluntary sector agencies, and cater for various disabilities. While the relatively high number of places in Glasgow City is understandable given the city’s population, the similar number of places in Inverclyde is perhaps more unexpected. This is likely to be accounted for, at least in part, by the various services offered at Quarrier’s Village for adults with disabilities such as sensory impairments and epilepsy.

108

TABLE 8.5.3

CARE HOMES FOR ADULTS WITH PHYSICAL DISABILITIES: HOMES AND PLACES by LOCAL AUTHORITY, MARCH 2009

Authority

Care Home Provision Care Homes

Registered Places

East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

111

Inverclyde

106

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

GCV

239

Scotland

547

Source: Care Homes, Scotland, 2009. Scottish Government National Statistics published 27 April 2010 based on SCHC1 [Scottish Care Home Census] Return March 2009 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Annex Table 1. Note: The number of care homes, and places in care homes, as registered with the Care Commission.

Future Requirements 8.5.12 It is acknowledged that there is currently a shortfall in the GCV area in the availability of suitable housing, whether purpose designed or adapted, to meet the requirements of physically disabled people. It is likely that demand will increase in future.

Mental Health Problems Background 8.5.13 Mental Health continues to be a policy priority for Government and the NHS in Scotland. It is seen as an integral part of public health, and just as important as physical health to the overall wellbeing of individuals and communities. 8.5.14 The long-stay hospitals serving the GCV area such as Dykebar, Gartloch, Hartwood, Hawkhead, Lennox Castle, Leverndale and Woodilee have been gradually closed as new support services have been developed to meet residentsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; needs.

109

8.5.15 Towards a Mentally Flourishing Scotland (2009)24 is the most recent statement of Government policy and action to improve mental health in Scotland. The approach is based on a social model of health, which recognises that our mental state is shaped by our social, economic, physical and cultural environment, including peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s personal strengths and vulnerabilities, their lifestyles and health-related behaviours, as well as various external socio-economic factors. Each personâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s experience differs. The emphasis is inclusive and positive with an emphasis on mental wellbeing rather than on stigmatising mental illness. Housing and Mental Health 8.5.16 Following the closure of long-stay psychiatric hospitals, there has been a move to more diverse housing. The vast majority of those with mild mental health problems live in mainstream housing. Over 80% of people with severe and enduring mental health problems also live in mainstream housing25, with the rest living in supported housing or other specialist accommodation. Housing providers include local authorities, housing associations, voluntary organisations and health services. Many live in owner occupied housing. 8.5.17 Many people with mental health problems in acute psychiatric wards require suitable move-on accommodation, with appropriate arrangements for support. 8.5.18 People with mental health problems may also have housing problems and may be vulnerable to homelessness. 8.5.19 The majority of people with mental health problems live in mainstream accommodation, possibly with some form of support service to help them maintain their tenancy/home. 8.5.20 Table 8.5.4 details registered care homes and places for adults with mental health problems, by local authority, at March 2009. Across the GCV area there were some 30 registered care homes providing 419 places for adults with mental health problems. Over 70% of these places were in Glasgow City. There was no such provision in East Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire or West Dunbartonshire. Such provision must meet 19 national care standards.26 It may include group accommodation with peer and professional support, and may be provided by local authorities, housing associations or voluntary sector agencies.

Towards a Mentally Flourishing Scotland: Policy and Action Plan 2009-2011 (2009). Scotlandâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s mental health improvement plan. Edinburgh: Scottish Government. 25 Mental Health and Social Exclusion (2004) Social Exclusion Unit Report, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister. 26 National Care Standards: Care Homes for People with Mental Health Problems. Revised March 2005. Edinburgh: Scottish Government [ www.carecommission.com ]

110

TABLE 8.5.4 CARE HOMES FOR ADULTS WITH MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEMS: HOMES AND PLACES by LOCAL AUTHORITY, MARCH 2009 Authority

Care Home Provision Care Homes

Registered Places

East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

299

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire

West Dunbartonshire

GCV

419

Scotland 81 1,052 Source: Care Homes, Scotland, 2009. Scottish Government National Statistics published 27 April 2010 based on SCHC1 [Scottish Care Home Census] Return March 2009 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Annex Table 1. Note: The number of care homes, and places in care homes, as registered with the Care Commission.

8.5.21 The housing needs of many people experiencing mental health problems can be met in mainstream accommodation.

Learning Disabilities Background 8.5.22 The term learning disabilities covers a broad spectrum of individual circumstances, and peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s needs can change during their lifetime. The HNDA has adopted the following definition, based on work by the Mental Health Foundation and the review in 2000 of services in Scotland for people with Learning Disabilities, The Same as You? 27 : People with learning disabilities have a significant, lifelong condition that started before adulthood, that affected their development and which means they need help to: understand information, learn skills, and cope independently.

It is taken here to include people with autistic spectrum disorders. 8.5.23 Accommodation requirements for those with mild to moderate learning disabilities may be met within mainstream housing with support, supported tenancies or group accommodation, while those with more complex or multiple needs may require constant and highly intensive support and the facilities of a registered care home.

The Same As You? A Review of Services for People with Learning Disabilities (2000) Edinburgh: Scottish Executive. Also: Learning Disabilities: The Fundamental Facts (1993) London: Mental Health Foundation.

111

8.5.24 Support for most people with learning disabilities is provided at home by relatives. This is often a lifelong commitment/responsibility: 25% of people with learning disabilities have a carer aged 65 or over 20% have two carers aged 70 or over, and 11% have one carer aged 70 or over28. 8.5.25 The Same as You? (2000) attempted to quantify how many people in Scotland have a learning disability, recognising that there may be some variation across the country:

20 people for every 1,000 have a mild or moderate learning disability, and 3 to 4 people for every 1,000 have a profound or multiple disability.

This would suggest a Scotland-wide figure of some 120,000 people who have a learning disability. 8.5.26 The review also identified evidence suggesting that the number of people with learning disabilities has been increasing by around 1.2% per year and may continue to do so. Further, more people with learning disabilities will live longer, so their needs will also change. For instance, older people with learning disabilities tend to have more mental health problems. 8.5.27 However, The Same as You? also estimated that only around 25% of people with learning disabilities are in regular contact with local authorities or the health service in Scotland – the rest are supported by their families at home with no requirement for specialist support. 8.5.28 Increasingly services are no longer focussed on buildings, whether in a hospital or Day Centre. People with learning disabilities are now living in the community, often with their own tenancy in a house or small group accommodation. The majority of people with learning disabilities can live in mainstream accommodation, with floating support and telecare. Additional support may be provided in ‘group living’ and ‘core and cluster’ models. For some, specialist design may be required to incorporate assistive technology. 8.5.29 Table 8.5.5 details adults with learning disabilities known to the GCV local authorities, and those living in their own tenancies or owner occupiers, at 2007. The figures for those living in their own tenancy or owner occupiers show variation from authority to authority. However, care should be taken not to read too much into these figures. A further examination of the source data for time series 2003 to 2007 indicates a gradual increase from 24% of those known to local authorities in 2003 to 33% at Scotland level, but considerable variation from year to year for a number of individual authorities.

The Same As You? A Review of Services for People with Learning Disabilities (2000) Edinburgh: Scottish Executive.

112

TABLE 8.5.5 ADULTS WITH LEARNING DISABILITIES KNOWN TO LOCAL AUTHORITIES, and those living in their OWN TENANCY, 2007 Authority

Adults with Learning Disabilities known to Local Authorities

Adults with Learning Disabilities Living in Their Own Tenancy or Owner Occupiers

Males

Females

Total

Adults known per 1,000 population

Total

Estimate of adults as % those known to LA

218

172

390

4.6

180

46%

223

197

420

5.9

148

35%

1,508

1,155

2,663

5.5

1,247

47%

Inverclyde

244

210

454

6.8

143

31%

North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire

738

629

1,367

5.3

433

32%

550

305

855

6.2

174

20%

South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

521

422

943

3.8

250

27%

264

196

460

6.2

163

35%

13,049

9,826

22,875

5.5

7,497

33%

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City

Scotland

Source: ‘The Same as You?’ Annual Survey 2007, The Scottish Government. (Annex A and Annex I.) Notes: Adults known per 1,000 population: this is the number of adults with learning disabilities known to local authorities per 1,000 of the population aged 16 and above. The numbers of adults as a percentage of all adults known to a local authority are estimates as the figures may not have come from the same base of individuals.

8.5.30 Care Home provision for adults with learning disabilities, by local authority, at March 2009, is shown in Table 8.5.6. The voluntary sector is crucial in such provision. The same statistical source29 at March 2006 published a breakdown by sector indicating that, across the GCV area, 65% of registered places were in the voluntary sector, 18% in the private sector, and 17% in LA/NHS sector. Between 2006 and 2009 there has been a slight increase of 1 additional care home and 20 registered places in the GCV area, contrasting with a reduction in both care homes and places across Scotland as a whole in the same period. All such care homes must meet the 20 national care standards30 which are grouped according to a person’s journey through the service: Before moving In, Settling in, Day-to-day life, and Moving on. 29

SEHD Community Care Statistics – SCHC Return March 2006

National Care Standards: Care Homes for People with Learning Disabilities. Revised September 2005. Edinburgh: Scottish Government [ www.carecommission.com ]

113

What is also clear is the relatively small average size of most care homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ranging from 4 places to around 14, with few exceptions. This reflects the shift in thinking to providing support in the community, in group housing or core and cluster models. TABLE 8.5.6 CARE HOMES FOR ADULTS WITH LEARNING DISABILITIES: HOMES AND PLACES by LOCAL AUTHORITY, MARCH 2009 Authority

Care Home Provision Care Homes

Registered Places

East Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Glasgow City

125

Inverclyde

North Lanarkshire

149

Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire

117

West Dunbartonshire

GCV

578

Scotland

311

2,857

8.5.31 Predicting future requirements for specialised accommodation for adults with learning disabilities is not altogether straight forward. From the above analysis the following points can be made:

While there is likely to be a gradual increase in numbers of people with learning disabilities, the majority are likely still to be supported by their parents and other relatives in the family home. A significant but variable number of adults will be able to maintain their own tenancy, with appropriate levels of support services. The voluntary sector is likely to continue to have a key role in such support.

There is likely to be an increasing demand for support services of various kinds, including telecare and assistive technology in the home setting.

There are various models for the provision of more intensive support, some of which require specially designed accommodation. These models are continuing to evolve.

There is considerable variation in existing provision between authorities resulting from factors such as variation in numbers known to each authority, or local policy decisions relating to priorities and preferred models of support.

114

8.6

Minority Ethnic Households

Introduction 8.6.1 The HNDA provides an overview of the accommodation needs of Minority Ethnic households at local authority level. The Census sets out the minority ethnic categories used by the majority of local authorities for monitoring and analytical purposes. All local authorities have in place a Single Equality Scheme in which they set out their priorities relating to equalities including race. 8.6.2 Each local authority provided information on minority ethnic households in their area, using the 2001 Census as a key data source, augmented where available with data from local housing registers, and local research studies. 8.6.3 Between 1991 and 2001 the total population of Scotland increased by 1.3%, but the minority ethnic population increased much more rapidly – by 62.3%31. In 2001 it represented 2% of the total population of Scotland, 2.8% of the GCV population. A similar pattern of disparate growth may have happened since 2001, though the minority ethnic population will still account for a relatively small proportion of the total population. 8.6.4 The pattern of growth appears to have been uneven between different groups. For instance, a partnership of North and South Lanarkshire Councils, with Communities Scotland, commissioned ODS Consulting to assess the housing needs of minority ethnic households across the two Council areas32. The level of inter-censal change between 1991 and 2001 – reflecting both natural change and migration – was assessed across different minority ethnic groups, indicating very substantial change over the ten year period, together with variability between ethnic groups and between the authorities (see Table 8.6.1). TABLE 8.6.1

INTER-CENSAL CHANGE IN LANARKSHIRE, 1991 – 2001

Ethnic Group

North Lanarkshire % change 1991 – 2001

South Lanarkshire % change 1991 – 2001

White Irish Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian Black Caribbean Black African Black Other Other

+ 20% + 45% + 76% -+ 37% + 40% + 71% + 52%

+ 44% + 77% + 45%

Sub Total

+ 32%

-- 24% + 61% -- 11% + 40% + 24% -- 25%

-- 40% -- 15%

+ 5%

31 31

+39%

Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census: Summary Report (2004). Edinburgh: Scottish Executive, Office of the Chief Statistician. Assessing the Housing Needs of Minority Ethnic Communities in Lanarkshire. (2006) ODS Consulting on behalf of South and North Lanarkshire Councils and Communities Scotland.

115

Source: Assessing the Housing Needs of Minority Ethnic Communities in Lanarkshire. (2006) ODS Consulting on behalf of South and North Lanarkshire Councils and Communities Scotland.

8.6.5 Glasgow City Council has recently assessed the change in the minority ethnic population between 2001 and 200833. The report concludes that the cityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s minority ethnic population grew from 5.4% in 2001 to 8.1% in 2008, the largest percentage increase being in the African group (up 215%). 8.6.6 Various factors are likely to have contributed to this probable rapid growth in minority ethnic population since 2001, including the significant numbers of asylum seekers granted refugee status, and the accession of 10 new member states to the European Union, leading to new patterns of migration across the EUâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s internal borders. Minority Ethnic Population and Households 8.6.7 Table 8.6.2 details the distribution of the minority ethnic population across the GCV authorities in 2001. The minority ethnic population accounts for around 2.9% of the total population. By far the largest component is of Pakistani and Other South Asian background. The minority ethnic population is not evenly distributed, ranging from under 1% in Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire to 3.1% in East Dunbartonshire, 3.9% in East Renfrewshire and 5.4% in Glasgow City. There is also some variation in the distribution by minority ethnic background. Glasgow has the largest minority ethnic population in Scotland, with almost a third (31%) of the total Scottish minority ethnic population living in the city; this is followed by Edinburgh (18%). 8.6.8 Table 8.6.3 details the distribution of minority ethnic households across the GCV authorities in 2001. The distribution is similar to population, but there are proportionately fewer minority ethnic households, implying larger household sizes.

33 Population by Ethnicity in Glasgow: Estimates of Changes 2001 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2008 for Community Planning Partnership areas and Neighbourhoods. 14 September 2010. Glasgow City Council.

116

TABLE 8.6.2

MINORITY ETHNIC POPULATION 2001

Authority

Total Population No. [100%]

White

Indian

East Dunbartonshire

108,243 [100%]

104,893 [96.9%]

1,533 [1.4%]

East Renfrewshire

89,311 [100%]

85,875 [96.1%]

Glasgow City

577,869 [100%]

Inverclyde

Pakistani & Other South Asian 734 [0.7%]

[0.5%]

[0.8%]

1,935 [2.2%]

[0.4%]

[0.5%]

546,359 [94.5%]

4,173 [0.7%]

17,587 [3.0%]

3,876 [0.7%]

[1.0%]

84,203 [100%]

83,453 [99.1%]

[0.2%]

North Lanarkshire

321,067 [100%]

317,026 [98.7%]

[0.2%]

Renfrewshire

172,867 [100%]

170,728 [98.8%]

[0.3%]

South Lanarkshire

302,216 [100%]

298,812 [98.9%]

[0.2%]

West Dunbartonshire

93,378 [100%]

92,712 [99.3%]

[0.1%]

[0.2%]

GCV

1,749,154 [100%]

1,699,858 [97.2%]

8,191 [0.5%]

24,351 [1.4%]

6,788 [0.4%]

[0.6%]

5,062,011 [100%]

4,960,334 [98.0%]

15,037 [0.3%]

39,970 [0.8%]

16,310 [0.3%]

30,360 [0.6%]

Scotland

686

172

527

Source: 2001 Census. Table CAST07: Ethnic Group â&#x20AC;&#x201C; People Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

117

571 [0.5%]

341

113

474

5,874

151 [0.2%]

1,988 [0.6%]

[0.2%]

314 [0.4%]

607

608

919 [0.3%]

440

[0.4%]

[0.3%]

1,162 [0.4%]

[0.2%]

103

Other Minority Ethnic Background

512

[0.1%]

461

536

Chinese

630 [0.4%]

718

224

988 [0.3%]

143

196

9,966

TABLE 8.6.3 Authority

MINORITY ETHNIC HOUSEHOLDS 2001

Total Households

Ethnic Group of Household Reference Person White

Indian

No. [100%]

Pakistani & Other South Asian 192 [0.5%]

Chinese

Other Minority Ethnic Background

East Dunbartonshire

42,206 [100%]

41,291 [97.8%]

[1.0%]

East Renfrewshire

34,950 [100%]

34,120 [97.6%]

[0.5%]

[1.2%]

[0.3%]

[0.4%]

Glasgow City

271,596 [100%]

261,877 [96.4%]

1,374 [0.5%]

4,664 [1.7%]

1,466 [0.5%]

[0.8%]

Inverclyde

36,691 [100%]

36,424 [99.3%]

[0.1%]

North Lanarkshire

132,619 [100%]

131,481 [99.1%]

[0.1%]

Renfrewshire

75,355 [100%]

74,728 [99.2%]

[0.2%]

South Lanarkshire

126,496 [100%]

125,497 [99.2%]

[0.1%]

West Dunbartonshire

40,781 [100%]

40,586 [99.5%]

[0.1%]

[0.2%]

GCV

760,694 [100%]

746,004 [98.1%]

2,551 [0.3%]

6,382 [0.8%]

2,343 [0.3%]

[0.4%]

2,192,246 [100%]

2,161,597 [98.6%]

4,935 [0.1%]

10,600 [0.5%]

5,400 [0.2%]

[0.4%]

Scotland

425

186

148 [0.4%]

427

52 [0.1%]

175

502

132

135

330

273 [0.2%]

[0.2%]

[0.3%]

108

188

164

174

2,215

[0.3%]

[0.1%]

[0.2%]

124

53 [0.1%]

[0.4%]

150 [0.4%]

196 [0.3%]

212 [0.2%]

283 [0.2%]

3,414

9,714

Source: 2001 Census. Table CAST08: Ethnic Group of Household Reference Person Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.

8.6.9 It is important to recognise that minority ethnic groups are not evenly distributed geographically within authorities, but tend to cluster in certain areas where there are family and community networks, or other services which are culturally sensitive â&#x20AC;&#x201C; for instance, shops, community facilities and places of worship. In addition, availability of appropriate and affordable housing is another important factor, as most minority ethnic groups tend to favour owner occupation or private rental (see section below on Tenure).

118

Household Composition 8.6.10 The Scotland level analysis34 of Occupancy Rating35 indicates that the White groups have the lowest proportion of households living below the occupancy rating standard (‘officially’ overcrowded), ranging from 7% to 15%; 22% of Indian households are below the rating standard; 24% of Chinese households; 29% to 31% of Pakistani and Other South Asian, and Caribbean, households are below the rating standard. 8.6.11 The same Scotland level analysis also considers Multiple Family Households. While only 1.1% of White Scottish people (and a similar proportion for other White groups) live in households which contain 2 families, 7.5% of Indian people and 12.7% of Pakistani people live in households which consist of two or more families. 2.3% of Pakistani people live in households comprising 3 or more families. In terms of single person households, 14.6% of White Scottish people, 20.3% of White Irish, 17.7% of Caribbean and only 3.3% of Pakistani people lived on their own in 2001. 8.6.12 Table 8.6.4 details those households in the GCV area, by ethnic group, where a household member has/does not have a Limiting Long Term Illness. The White groups have a higher rate of limiting long term illness than minority ethnic groups. However, this is likely to reflect the generally older age profiles of White groups – as the population ages, a higher proportion of people have long term illness or disability.

Analysis of Ethnicity in the 2001 Census: Summary Report (2004). Edinburgh: Scottish Executive, Office of the Chief Statistician. Chart 2.2, page 33. The Occupancy Rating is similar to the Bedroom Standard, and as calculated by GROS relates the actual number of rooms in a household to the number required by that household based on the age of the household members and the relationship between them. A positive occupancy rating means that there are more rooms than are ‘required’ by that household. A negative rating indicates fewer rooms than are ‘required’. A zero rating indicates the actual number of rooms to be the same as the number ‘required’. 35

119

TABLE 8.6.4 HOUSEHOLDS INCLUDING A PERSON WITH A LIMITING LONG TERM ILLNESS [LLTI], BY MINORITY ETHNIC GROUP, 2001 LA Area

Total Households

Minority Ethnic Group [Number and percentage of total households in ethnic group] White

LLTI 13920

NO LLTI 28286

33% 11269

LLTI 13633

NO LLTI 27658

23681

33% 10978

32% 118078

153518

43% 14807

Indian

LLTI

Pakistani & Other S Asian LLTI NO LLTI 73 119

Chinese

LLTI 35

NO LLTI 113

Other M E Background LLTI NO LLTI 27 123

152

NO LLTI 273

23142

36% 59

127

38% 184

243

24% 23

18% 25

32% 114716

147161

32% 489

885

43% 1978

2686

25% 341

1125

20% 554

1661

21884

44% 14744

21680

42% 20

25% 30

40% 57035

75584

40% 56623

74858

13% 54

121

38% 209

293

11% 42

146

28% 107

166

43% 28324

47031

43% 28134

46594

31% 45

42% 60

104

22% 24

111

39% 61

135

38% 50258

76238

38% 49927

75570

34% 61

113

37% 147

183

18% 42

170

31% 81

202

40% 16957

23824

40% 16889

23697

35% 11

45% 22

20% 20

29% 15

42% 310648

450046

42% 305644

440360

35% 878

1673

43% 2693

3689

42% 533

1810

23% 900

2514

EDC

ERC

GCC 36%

23%

NLC

SLC

WDC

GCV 41% 41% Source: 2001 Census, Table CAST08

34%

42%

23%

26%

Tenure 8.6.13 Table 8.6.5 examines the tenure patterns of minority ethnic groups, based on 2001 Census data. This reveals the following broad patterns:

The majority of the Indian group in all GCV authority areas are owners, followed in seven areas by private rental. The figures for Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire are very small and percentages should be treated with caution.

The majority of the Pakistani & Other South Asian group are also owners, followed by private rental. As with the Indian group, there is some movement into social rented tenure â&#x20AC;&#x201C; mainly from a Council rather than a housing association.

The majority of Chinese are owners followed by private rental.

The Other group is diverse and is more evenly spread across tenures, with above average representation in private rental.

Across all ethnic groups, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire have high levels of ownership, reflecting relative affluence of these areas.

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TABLE 8.6.5 Ethnic Group

TENURE OF MINORITY ETHNIC HOUSEHOLDS, 2001

Tenure [% within Ethnic group] Owned

White Council OtherSR PRS

Authority EDC

ERC

GCC

NLC

SLC

WDC

GCV

33354 81% 5661 14% 706 2% 1570 4%

28408 83% 3570 10% 727 2% 1415 4%

126779 48% 68972 26% 35463 14% 30663 12%

21991 60% 9276 25% 2558 7% 2599 7%

76376 58% 42187 32% 5409 4% 7509 6%

48580 65% 16148 22% 4527 6% 5473 7%

84325 67% 30007 24% 3512 3% 7653 6%

21727 54% 11969 29% 4381 11% 2509 6%

441540 59% 187790 25% 57283 8% 59391 8%

1846 72% 152 6% 111 4% 442 17%

Owned Indian

397 93%

Council

167 90%

7 2%

OtherSR

6 3%

Owned

170 10

4 1%

PRS

12 6%

Owned Chinese

383

40 9%

136 92%

Council

1% OtherSR

PRS

Owned

PRS

2 1%

32 24%

4 8%

14 7%

30%

19%

20%

21%

18%

34171 81% 5691 13% 711 2% 1633 4%

29143 83% 3585 10% 729 2% 1493 4%

131828 49% 70197 26% 36304 13% 33267 12%

22134 60% 9317 25% 2574 7% 2666 7%

77154 58% 42354 32% 5444 4% 7667 6%

49012 65% 16201 21% 4552 6% 5590 7%

85083 67% 30109 24% 3526 3% 7778 6%

21847 54% 12010 29% 4393 11% 2531 6%

450372 59% 189464 25% 58233 8% 62625 8%

20 19%

244 11%

47% 79

816

49%

29%

4 8%

37%

521 24%

1% 24

44%

127

5 10%

58%

22%

165 52

38%

18%

1577 67% 248 11% 101 4% 417 18%

14%

PRS

29%

OtherSR

17 9%

2 2%

35 73%

16%

634

9 17%

184 87% 6%

4 8%

4099 64% 520 8% 440 7% 1323 21%

1310 38% 754 22% 298 9% 1052 31%

OtherSR

Council

324

101

101 75%

3 6%

12%

10%

22%

81%

Owned

114

152 81%

76% Council

All Hâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;holds

1 1%

Other

206 14%

7 14%

16%

37 73%

61 12%

254

2 6%

77% 6

68%

126

25%

12 7%

76% 55

849 58%

374

11%

6 19%

19 14%

75% 15

7 4%

29%

74%

16%

38%

155 89%

3% 7

13 24%

2735 59% 392 8% 410 9% 1127 24%

84 90%

15 9%

337

108 82%

25%

90%

5% OtherSR

1 2%

100

13 7%

89% Council

106

125 71%

4% Pakistani & Other South Asian

40 74%

1% PRS

831 60%

23 35%

7 2%

5 8%

Source: 2001 Census, Table CAST08 Percentages rounded to nearest integer; totals may not sum due to rounding. For some ethnic groups the numbers are very small and the % figure may be misleading and should be treated with caution. The figures relate to the 2001 Census, prior to large scale transfer of Council housing stock in Glasgow City and Inverclyde to RSLs.

121

Issues raised by voluntary sector agencies 8.6.14 As part of our consultation process, we engaged with a number of organisations who advocate on behalf of minority ethnic people. During this process, a number of issues were highlighted:

There are different needs between the traditional minority ethnic communities and more recent migrants from Eastern Europe and Africa with different economic and housing circumstances.

Similar to the White Scottish population, there are affordability issues for many minority ethnic households. Some in older tenemental property may be unable to afford the high costs of necessary repairs and refurbishment, without some form of assistance.

More good quality affordable housing is required of suitable size for larger minority ethnic households.

There is an increasing demand for accommodation for older people in the traditional minority ethnic groups, particularly sheltered housing. There may be difficulties for some communities (particularly Pakistani and south Asian) in moving to sheltered accommodation because of the move away from the traditional multi generational family support network. However, this does not appear to be as problematic for the Chinese community.

Future Requirements 8.6.15 Although the majority of minority ethnic households live in the private sector, and are likely to continue to do so, there is evidence of increasing need for access to social rented housing. There is an increasing demand for good quality, affordable housing in areas where people from minority ethnic communities feel safe, whether this is in the private or social sector. 8.6.16 A number of minority ethnic households in the private rented sector experience problems relating to overcrowding and condition of property, and these issues need to be addressed. 8.6.17 There is also likely to be increasing need for support services for older minority ethnic households, including sheltered provision which can meet cultural requirements.

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8.7

Asylum Seekers and Refugees

8.7.1 Glasgow City is currently the only local authority in Scotland contracted by the Home Office to provide accommodation for Asylum Seekers. However, other asylum seekers live with friends or relatives within the other GCV authority areas. At August 200636 there were over 5,000 asylum seekers in Scotland, the vast majority in Glasgow City; only 82 were living with friends or relatives, dispersed across ten other authority areas. 8.7.2 Research in 200537 noted that asylum seekers tended to be relatively young and well educated, and that 88% aspired to remain in Scotland. 8.7.3 Research in 200638 on public attitudes to asylum seekers and refugees, found a greater tolerance in Scotland than in England, at least to the principle of asylum, but also identified considerable hostility and prejudice. This tended to revolve around a perceived threat to jobs, and impact on public services, particularly housing. On being granted â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;leave to remainâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;, an asylum seeker has the same housing and social security entitlements as a UK citizen. 8.7.4 According to the Home Office39, at the end of June 2010 there were 2,205 Asylum Seekers supported in accommodation in Glasgow, excluding unaccompanied asylum seeking children and those in initial accommodation. This number is less than the Council estimate of around 5,000 asylum seekers living in the city, possibly accounted for by increasing numbers living with friends and relatives. In the initial years of the active dispersal programme, Glasgow mainly received families, which was appropriate to the accommodation facilities and support services available, such as local schools; this also helped to support communities. More asylum seekers are now making their own way to Glasgow to be near family and communities, making it a more organic process based on informal networks. Fewer families and more single people are now seeking asylum in Glasgow, and this brings a different profile of needs. There are around 100 unaccompanied asylum seekers (under 18) coming to Glasgow each year. 8.7.5 When asylum seekers gain refugee status, on average around 70% of families stay in Glasgow, where they will have built up social networks. For single people, the movement patterns are quite different with around a third moving away, a third remaining in Glasgow, and a third losing contact with services. 8.7.6 When asylum seekers have a positive decision, the process is for them to present as homeless if they wish to remain in Glasgow. If they live in a Glasgow Housing Association (GHA) property, in normal circumstances they can stay there, with GHA providing an alternative property to the Home Office. This allows people to remain in the communities they know. However, some overcrowding has been reported, due to natural expansion of families, or other contributory factors.

COSLA Strategic Migration Partnership. www.asylumscotland.org.uk/asylumstatistics The Impact of Asylum Seekers on the Glasgow Economy. A Report to COSLA Refugees and Asylum Seekers Consortium (2005). University of Strathclyde: Fraser of Allander Institute for Research on the Scottish Economy. 38 Lewis, Miranda (2006) Warm Welcome? Understanding Public Attitudes to Asylum Seekers in Scotland. London: Institute for Public Policy Research. 39 Control of Immigration: Quarterly Statistical Summary, 26 August 2010. The Home Office. 37

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8.7.7 Until recently, there were many ‘legacy’ cases in Glasgow, where asylum seekers had been waiting for 7 years or more for a decision on their application. Case Resolution by the UK Border Agency resulted in over 700 households being given status in 2009. The ‘New Asylum Model’ means that in future such cases should be dealt with more quickly. 8.7.8 Recent research40 has highlighted difficulties experienced by newly recognised refugees in gaining access to appropriate housing in Glasgow, due to various factors, including:

A shortage of permanent accommodation in areas perceived by them to be safe; and lack of appropriately sized accommodation for larger refugee families.

Fear and actual experience of racial harassment.

An ongoing need for impartial specialist services to help refugees navigate the housing system, particularly in the transition from asylum seeker to refugee status. More clarity is required in the roles and responsibilities of the various statutory and voluntary sector agencies involved in supporting refugees.

8.7.9 The report recognised policy and process changes which will impact on refugees. It also noted that many issues raised – including debt, rent charges, satisfaction with landlords and the location of housing – are experienced by many people in Glasgow, but are compounded by the specific circumstances of refugees and their increased potential vulnerability to homelessness. 8.7.10 About two-thirds of those interviewed for the research were ‘very likely’ to continue to remain in Glasgow, offering many positive reasons and an appreciation of the city and its people, despite difficulties experienced in relation to their housing. 8.7.11 The UK Border Agency Immigration Removal Centre for Scotland is located in South Lanarkshire at Dungavel House. It was opened as an IRC in 2001 and has 190 bed spaces and a range of other services. As at 30 June 2010 there were 200 adults in detention at Dungavel solely under Immigration Act powers; 115 of these had sought asylum at some stage41. Voluntary Sector Perspective 8.7.12 Various voluntary sector agencies are involved in offering information, advice and support to asylum seekers and refugees. At January 2010, Positive Action in Housing (PAiH) was dealing with 444 such households. These included: 168 cases (38%) waiting for two apartment housing 230 families (52%) waiting for 3 or 4 apartment housing 46 families (10%) waiting for 5, 6 or 7 apartment housing. Most of this caseload snapshot relates to households waiting for social rented accommodation in Glasgow and surrounding areas. Households would either be in temporary accommodation, or in unsuitable or overcrowded permanent accommodation, awaiting permanent housing which meets their needs. Based on their caseload, PAiH highlighted the shortage of affordable, larger sized houses.

Netto, Gina and Fraser, Anne (2009) Navigating the Maze: Refugee Routes to Housing, Support and Settlement in Scotland. Heriot Watt Unibversity. Research commissioned by Scottish Refugee Council and Access Apna Ghar Housing Association Ltd. 41 Control of Immigration: Quarterly Statistical Summary, 26 August 2010. The Home Office.

124

Future Implications 8.7.13 As numbers of asylum seekers and refugees increase, it is likely that the majority will remain in Glasgow City; however, it is also possible that households may migrate to neighbouring authorities .

125

8.8

Migrant Workers from the European Union

8.8.1 EU nationals are allowed to come to the UK to work without having to apply for a visa, with a reciprocal arrangement in place for UK citizens to work in Europe. The Scottish Government has sought to attract bright, hard-working and motivated people to live, study and work in Scotland, helping to address the demographic challenge of an ageing population. 8.8.2 In 2004, ten countries joined the EU: Cyprus and Malta together with eight Eastern European states (the A8 accession states) – Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. While allowing A8 nationals the right to live and work in the UK, transitional measures were put in place by the Government to regulate access to the labour market (the Worker Registration Scheme, or WRS) and to restrict access to benefits (the notion of ‘no recourse to public funds’). Between May 2004 and March 2007, around 45,000 migrants from the A8 countries registered to work in Scotland – the majority of these from Poland42. No restrictions were placed on workers from Cyprus and Malta. 8.8.3 In 2007 a further two countries acceded to the EU (A2 accession states) – Bulgaria and Romania. Tighter regulations currently apply to nationals of these countries who wish to work in the UK. GCV Area 8.8.4 It is possible to estimate the number and changing pattern of migrant workers using data published by the UK Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) on National Insurance Number (NINo) Registrations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK. However, this needs to be treated with some caution, since it does not record individuals who may have subsequently moved out of the area, elsewhere in the UK, or back abroad. A number of GCV authorities have commissioned local studies which provide more local detail, including Glasgow City (and Glasgow Housing Association separately), and a joint project commissioned by North and South Lanarkshire Councils. 8.8.5 Table 8.8.1 indicates the changing numbers of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals between 2002/03 and 2009/10. There was an increase across most local authorities from 2005/06, with numbers reducing a couple of years later. Glasgow City recorded the largest numbers – peaking at 10,400 in 2007/08 – while a number of other authorities saw similar percentage growth. The most limited change was in Inverclyde.

www.careers-scotland.org.uk

126

TABLE 8.8.1

NINo REGISTRATIONS TO ADULT OVERSEAS NATIONALS ENTERING THE UK, 2002/03 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2009/10

Authority

2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

E Dunbartonshire E Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde N Lanarkshire Renfrewshire S Lanarkshire W Dunbartonshire

100 90 3060 190 280 240 320 90

110 80 2890 160 250 240 310 90

130 100 3930 250 340 290 400 90

170 120 6670 310 810 710 770 160

310 280 9200 250 1530 1120 1090 280

200 140 10400 280 1450 1050 860 220

160 110 8560 220 990 690 680 150

130 100 6770 140 530 500 400 140

GCV

4370

4130

5530

9720

14060

14600

11560

8710

Source: DWP NINo Registrations database. Numbers rounded to the nearest 10. Totals may not sum due to rounding method used.

8.8.6 This may be broken down by World Area of Origin, as shown below in Table 8.8.2 for NINo Registrations to Adult Overseas Nationals in 2009/10. What is interesting is that, particularly for Glasgow City, there are substantial numbers from Asia and the Middle East, and Africa. These numbers are likely to include refugees and family reunions. EU Accession States nevertheless remain the single largest source of migrant workers for North and South Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and West Dunbartonshire. The GCV area accounted for around 24% of the Scottish total of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals (36,330) in 2009-10. TABLE 8.8.2 Authority

NINo REGISTRATIONS TO ADULT OVERSEAS NATIONALS by WORLD AREA OF ORIGIN, 2009-10 Total

World Area of Origin EU

EU Accession States

Other European

Africa

Asia & Middle East

The Americas

Australasia & Oceania

Unknown

E Dunbartonshire E Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde N Lanarkshire Renfrewshire S Lanarkshire W Dunbartonshire

130 100 6770 140 530 500 400 140

30 10 820 80 30 50 50 20

30 30 1570 20 320 200 180 50

110 10 10 10 10 -

10 1050 30 60 20 20

30 40 2860 20 100 150 100 40

10 10 240 20 10 20 -

10 10 110 10 20 20 -

20 -

GCV

8710

1090

2400

150

1190

3340

310

180

Source: DWP NINo Registrations database. Numbers rounded to the nearest 10. Totals may not sum due to rounding method used.

127

8.8.7 Table 8.8.3 below provides an indication of the cumulative impact on GCV authorities of EU enlargement, by examining NINo registrations to nationals of the twelve EU Accession State over the period from January 2002 to March 2010. Some 64% of the GCV total of 26,910 are recorded in Glasgow City, followed by North Lanarkshire (15%), South Lanarkshire (8%) and Renfrewshire (8%). The remaining four authorities have around 1% of the GCV total each. Only Glasgow City has representation from all twelve states. While the Czech and Slovak Republics have significant numbers, by far the majority across all eight GCV authorities come from Poland; indeed all eight authorities have more workers from Poland than from all the other states combined. TABLE 8.8.3

Authority

Total [EU Access. States Natls.]

NINo REGISTRATIONS TO NATIONALS OF EU ACCESSION STATES, CUMULATIVE TOTAL 2002-2010 EU Accession States Rep of Estonia

Czech Rep.

Slovak Rep.

Hung.

Rep of Latvia

Rep of Lith.

Poland

Rep of Slovenia

Malta

Cyprus

Bulg.

Rom.

320

240

260

190

17100

1110

2230

280

480

640

11680

110

370

300

170

North Lanark. Renfrew.

3950

120

140

210

100

3250

2240

1920

South Lanark. West Dunbarton.

2270

220

160

150

1310

470

330

GCV

26910

360

1420

2820

730

770

880

19090

110

180

520

East Dunbarton. East Renfrew. Glasgow City Inverclyde

Source: DWP NINo Registrations database. Numbers rounded to the nearest 10. Totals may not sum due to rounding method used.

8.8.8 According to Careers Scotland43, A8 migrants, compared to the Scottish working age population, tend to be:

Younger Disproportionately male Less likely to have dependents Much less likely to be on benefits More likely to be working full-time More likely to be in low-paid, low-skilled work.

Many A8 migrants are paid at or marginally above the National Minimum Wage.

Key Messages â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Migrants from the A8 Countries. www.careers-scotland.org.uk

128

8.8.9 Research at UK level by Joseph Rowntree Foundation44 found that some migrants lived in overcrowded and poor quality housing yet most expressed satisfaction with their accommodation relative to their expectations. 8.8.10 A8 migrants are housed largely in private rented accommodation, due mainly to relatively easy access to such accommodation and more limited access to alternatives. New migrants stay initially with friends or relatives before moving into their own private rented housing. This is easier for single person or couple households but many migrant households with children are now relying on the social rented sector for accommodation, often through the homelessness route. 8.8.11 As yet, few migrants have entered the owner occupied housing market, possibly due to their low incomes. However, as migrants become more established and enter higher-paid employment, their choices will become greater in terms of tenure and location. 8.8.12 Discussions were held with relevant agencies involved with issues affecting migrant workers: Positive Action in Housing (PAiH), the West of Scotland Regional Equality Council and Govanhill Housing Association. Key points from these groups were:

Many migrants would prefer to be housed in social rented accommodation, but there is limited availability, especially of suitably sized property to accommodate the larger family sizes of various minority ethnic groups

Some migrant workers expressed interest in accessing low cost home ownership if mechanisms, such as shared equity were available to them.

Unlawful eviction and even destitution have arisen for some migrants

Future Implications 8.8.13 Migrant workers are largely housed in the private rented sector, some with the assistance of employers. While there appears to be little evidence of shortage, accommodation is of poor quality and that some migrants are living in unsatisfactory or overcrowded conditions. There is likely to be increased pressure on local authorities in relation to inspection and enforcement action to improve standards. 8.8.14 The transition arrangements for A8 and A2 nationals are due to end in 2011 and 2014 respectively. The implications are not clear but could include further demand for social housing and recourse to homelessness services and benefits in the event of unemployment.

Anderson, Bridget, Ruhs, Martin, Rogaly, Ben and Spences, Sarah (2006) Fair Enough? Central and East European migrants in low-wage employment in the UK. York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

129

8.9

Students

8.9.1 The GCV area is served by a wide range of further and higher education institutions, concentrated within Glasgow City. The sector has enjoyed substantial growth over the past decade as Scottish Government policy has sought both to increase participation rates, underpinning the knowledge economy, and to attract growing numbers of EU and other overseas students. For example, Glasgow City Council estimates that the city’s student population grew from around 77,000 in 1999 to 85,000 in 2006, studying at five university level institutions and eleven colleges (prior to the very recent merger of a number of FE colleges). 8.9.2 Many new undergraduate students secure accommodation in a hall of residence, whilst returning students share privately rented accommodation, creating a strong market segment, particularly in parts of Glasgow City. The private rented sector has traditionally offered choice and a flexible response to demand. More recently specialist student housing companies have entered the market and have absorbed some of the rapid growth in student numbers. 8.9.3 Changes in legislation in the past decade have started to drive up standards in the private rented sector, particularly when the mandatory licensing of Houses in Multiple Occupancy (HMO) by local authorities was introduced in October 200045 . 8.9.4 Compulsory Landlord Registration was introduced in April 200646 to improve standards in the private rented sector, remove poor landlords from the market, and give tenants improved safeguards. 8.9.5 As a result of the recent growth in student numbers and demand for convenient, affordable and safe accommodation, several new purpose-designed residences have been built in and around Glasgow city centre. 8.9.6

Glasgow City accounts for 90% of student accommodation, concentrated across the city’s west end and the city centre/ inner east end, serving the city’s three universities and specialist higher education institutions. Specialist private companies provide around 29% of the city’s student residences. Provision is also located in Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire to serve the local universities and further education colleges. .

Civic Government (Scotland) Act 1982 (Licensing of Houses in Multiple Occupation) Order 2000, as amended Under Part 8 of the Antisocial Behaviour etc. (Scotland) Act 2004 [an HMO is defined as a house or flat where three or more people, not part of the same family, live as their only or main home, and share cooking, washing or toilet facilities] 46

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8.10

Homeless People

Policy Framework47 8.10.1 Local Authorities have statutory duties towards homeless households as set out in the Housing (Scotland) Act 1987. Section 25 of the Act, as amended, defines the categories of household regarded as having a priority need for accommodation, and further details may be found in the Code of Guidance on Homelessness48. 8.10.2 The Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 requires local authorities to provide a minimum of temporary accommodation, advice and assistance to all applicants assessed as homeless, regardless of whether they have been assessed as being in priority need. 8.10.3 The main focus of the Homelessness Etc. (Scotland) Act 2003 is that any household assessed as being unintentionally homeless is entitled to settled accommodation by 2012. Section 11 of the 2003 Act is focussed on the prevention of homelessness by alerting local authorities when eviction or repossession proceedings have been raised against a household. This enables the local authority to provide direct assistance to the household to prevent homelessness occurring. . The Patterns of Homelessness 8.10.4 The best guide to the number of homeless people in Scotland is the number of applications made to local authorities by people presenting as homeless. Every time a household presents as homeless, the local authority is required to complete an â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;HL1 formâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; which is submitted to the Scottish Government. Across Scotland, there has been a steady rise in homeless applications in the years to 2005/ 2006, with a levelling off or gradual decline since then. The GCV authorities have tended to mirror this pattern, with the exception of South Lanarkshire which has seen an increase in homeless applications since 2005/ 2006. 8.10.5 Some households do not present as homeless, for a variety of reasons. Such hidden homelessness is difficult to quantify and may result in under-estimation of the scale of homelessness. 8.10.6 Table 8.10.1, provides a summary of the pattern of homelessness in the GCV area for the financial year 2009/ 2010.

The paragraphs on Policy Framework are drawn from the Summary of Homelessness Legislation, page 55, in: The Scottish Government, August 2010, Operation of the Homeless Persons Legislation in Scotland: 2009-10. A National Statistics Publication for Scotland. 48 Code of Guidance on Homelessness. Guidance on legislation, policies and practices to prevent and resolve homelessness. 2005. Edinburgh: Scottish Executive.

131

TABLE 8.10.1 Authority

HOMELESSNESS STATISTICS, GCV AREA, 2009-10 All homeless applications

Assessed as homeless

Assessed as homeless & in Priority Need

Repeat applications No.

% of all assessed as homeless

343 217 7,282 354 1,841 963 2,059 1,207

% of all assessed as homeles s 79 83 90 94 81 96 86 98

6 18 456 40 124 84 155 84

1 7 6 11 6 8 7 7

14,266

967

No.

% of all h’hold s [2008]

No.

% of all homeless applic’ns

No.

E. Dunbartonshire E. Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde N. Lanarkshire Renfrewshire S. Lanarkshire W. Dunbartonshire

666 353 10,640 576 2,975 1,236 3,054 2,061

2 1 4 2 2 2 2 5

434 263 8,077 376 2,264 1,008 2,398 1,236

65 75 76 65 76 82 79 60

GCV

21,561

16,056

Source: The Scottish Government, August 2010, Homelessness Statistics: Annual Reference Tables: 2009-10. ‘Assessed as homeless’ contains all cases with an assessment date within the financial year 2009-10 and an assessment decision of homeless; this includes Homeless – priority unintentional, Homeless – priority intentional, Homeless – nonpriority, Threatened with homelessness – priority unintentional, Threatened with homelessness – priority intentional and Threatened with homelessness – non-priority. ‘Assessed as homeless & in priority need’ contains all cases with an assessment date within the financial year 2009-10 and an assessment decision of homeless and in priority need; this includes Homeless – priority unintentional, Homeless – priority intentional, Threatened with homelessness – priority unintentional, and Threatened with homelessness – priority intentional. ‘Repeat Applications’ refers to applications reassessed as homeless within a year of closure of a previous application. Percentages rounded to nearest integer.

8.10.7 There is some variation between the GCV authorities in terms of the proportion of households assessed as homeless in terms of the legislation, ranging from 60% in West Dunbartonshire to 82% in Renfrewshire. There is also a range in terms of the proportion of households assessed as homeless that are deemed to be in priority need – ranging from 79% in East Dunbartonshire to 98% in West Dunbartonshire. Finally, there is significant variation between the eight authorities in relation to repeat applications from households previously assessed as being homeless, with East Dunbartonshire accounting for 1% compared to Inverclyde with 11%. 8.10.8 Table 8.10.2 provides a breakdown of the composition of households applying as homeless in 2009-10. Although there is some variation between authorities, some clear patterns emerge. Across the GCV area, over half of all applicants are single people (62%), Single men account for 41% of all applications, single women 21% and single parent households 26%. The ‘other’ category comprises couples with or without children (11%).

132

TABLE 8.10.2

HOMELESS APPLICATIONS BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE, 2009-10

Authority Single Person

E. Dunbartonshire E. Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde N. Lanarkshire Renfrewshire S. Lanarkshire W. Dunbartonshire GCV

All applic’ns

Household Type

Male No. % 35 231

Other

Single Parent

Female No. % 24 160

Male No. % 6 38

Female No. % 21 140

No. 97

% 15

No. 666

% 100

151 4,932 306 983 653 937 741

43 46 53 33 53 31 36

75 2,124 138 557 286 628 524

21 20 24 19 23 21 25

5 421 9 369 76 376 208

1 4 2 12 6 12 10

80 1,859 82 636 147 666 399

23 17 14 21 12 22 19

42 1,304 41 430 74 447 189

12 13 7 14 5 15 8

353 10,640 576 2,975 1,236 3,054 2,061

100 100 100 100 100 100 100

8,934

4,492

1,502

4,009

2,624

21,561

100

Source: The Scottish Government, August 2010, Homelessness Statistics: Annual Reference Tables: 2009-10. Percentages rounded to nearest integer.

Prevention of Homelessness 8.10.9 The Scottish Government has been increasing the emphasis on prevention in line with the wider commitment to promote social inclusion. Of key importance is the requirement in the Housing (Scotland) Act 2001 for local authorities to develop Homelessness Strategies to set out plans for ‘preventing and alleviating homelessness’ in the local authority’s area. 8.10.10 Understanding the causes of homelessness may help to assist in prevention activity, although a number of factors are related to wider socio-economic issues. The main reasons for applying for assistance in 2009-10 are shown in Table 8.10.3 below. Clearly relationship breakdown of one form or another is mainly responsible for homelessness applications. By contrast, rent arrears or mortgage default accounted for only 5% of homelessness applications in 2009-10 (average across the GCV area).

133

TABLE 8.10.3

MAIN REASON FOR APPLYING FOR ASSISTANCE, 2009-10 [%] Asked to leave

Relationship Breakdown/ dispute Within the household

Termination of tenancy/ mortgage due to arrears; action by landlord; loss of tied accommod’n; applicant terminating secure accomm.

Discharge from prison/ hospital/ care/ other institution

E.Dunbartonshire

E.Renfrewshire

Glasgow City Inverclyde N.Lanarkshire Renfrewshire S.Lanarkshire W.Dunbartonshire

27 40 28 28 39 38

GCV

Authority

Other

Total

[incl. emergency, harassment, overcrowding, fleeing nondomestic violence, and all other reasons]

100%

100

19 21 28 34 26 27

12 12 12 14 16 9

8 6 3 8 4 5

35 23 28 16 17 20

100 100 100 100 100 100

100

Source: The Scottish Government, August 2010, Homelessness Statistics: Annual Reference Tables: 2009-10. Percentages rounded to nearest integer.

8.10.11 A variety of prevention activities were undertaken for those applicants assessed as ‘threatened with homelessness’ or ‘not homeless’, during 2009-10, in all eight GCV authorities. This activity is detailed in Tables 8.10.4 and 8.10.5 below. There is a wide variation in the nature and intensity of prevention activity undertaken across the GCV authorities, which, in part, reflects the circumstances of presenting households, and in part local policy and practice decisions. At GCV level, for example, the most common prevention activities are ’assessment of support needs’, ‘assistance in finding alternative accommodation’, and ’provision of independent financial, legal or housing advice’.

134

TABLE 8.10.4 Authority

E. Dunbarton. E. Renfrew. Glasgow City Inverclyde N. Lanark. Renfrew. S. Lanark. W. Dunbarton.

All cases assessed as threatened homeless, or not homeless, and closed in period 2009-10 322 [100] 93 [100] 1,004 [100] 62 [100] 309 [100] 70 [100] 836 [100] 68 [100]

TYPES OF PREVENTION ACTIVITY UNDERTAKEN, 2009-10

Types of Prevention Activity undertaken for those Threatened with Homelessness or Not Homeless [Applications closed in 2009-10] 1 Assessmnt of support needs

9 [3] 24 [26] 154 [15] 10 [16] 100 [32] 5 [7] 131 [16] 8 [12]

2 Basic housing support (e.g. to manage finances or living alone) 4 [1] 1 [1] 41 [4] 5 [8] 20 [6] 4 [6] 64 [8] 5 [7]

3 Provision of independent financial, legal or housing advice

4 Assistance in dealing with landlords/ mortgage providers

5 Assistance in claiming benefits

6 Assistance in maintaining or finding employment, education or training

7 Direct financial assistance

8 Use of rent deposit/ guarantee scheme

9 Assistance with costs of â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;essential goodsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;

10 Assistance with any addictions

11 Involvement of Social Work or Health/ Community Care services

12 Other services: Counselling, Mediation, Befriending or Mentoring

13 Assistance in finding alternative accomodn

[24] 5

[5] 21

[5] 139

[23]

[14]

[2]

[1]

[0]

[7] 13

[0]

[6]

[4]

[4] 0

[4] 0 [1]

[0]

[4]

[6]

[4]

[4] 0

[1]

[0]

[1]

[4]

[5]

[5] 7

[4]

GCV

2,764 441 144 304 183 89 5 39 210 42 65 81 101 [100] [16] [5] [11] [7] [3] [0] [1] [8] [2] [2] [3] [4] Source: Scottish Government, National Statistics Publication for Scotland. Operation of the Homeless Persons Legislation in Scotland: National and Local Authority Analyses 2009-10. Detailed Tables [Table 30]. Figures in [ ] brackets are percentages, which have been rounded to nearest integer. The percentage figures do not add to 100, as most authorities undertake fewer prevention activities than the total number of cases assessed as threatened homeless or not homeless; East Renfrewshire total (198%) implies most cases are offered more than one prevention activity.

135

[0] 44

3 [1]

[15] 0

1 [0]

[11]

[1]

[6]

[21] 47

[6]

[2]

[7]

[22] 13

[1]

[13]

[1]

[40] 224

1 [1]

[0]

[5]

[1]

[6]

[6] 37

1 [0]

[1]

[13]

[0]

[3]

[1] 5

32 [0]

1 [16]

[0]

[2]

[0]

[2]

[2] 12

[0]

[7]

[0]

[1] 2

11 [19]

[6]

[78]

[0]

[2]

[0] 0

[0]

[3]

[9] 73

[0]

[2]

[3]

[0] 0

[5]

[9]

[8]

[0]

[10] 391 [14]

TABLE 8.10.5

SUMMARY OF TOTAL HOMELESSNESS PREVENTION ACTIVITY BY GCV LOCAL AUTHORITIES, 2009-10

Authority

All cases assessed as ‘threatened homeless’, or ‘not homeless’, and closed in period 2009-10

Total of prevention activities undertaken for those ‘threatened homeless’ or ‘not homeless’ and application closed in 200910 No.

322

167

As % of all cases assessed as ‘threatened homeless’ or ‘not homeless’ 52%

93 1,004 62 309 70 836 68

185 776 57 243 28 588 51

198% 77% 92% 79% 40% 70% 75%

2,764

2,095

76%

[100%]

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV

Source: Scottish Government, National Statistics Publication for Scotland. Operation of the Homeless Persons Legislation in Scotland: National and Local Authority Analyses 2009-10. Detailed Tables [Table 30]. Percentages rounded to nearest integer.

Youth Homelessness 8.10.12 Youth homelessness persists in Scotland, despite various efforts to tackle the problem. The introduction of homelessness strategies placed a new emphasis on prevention, paying explicit attention to young people. Those aged 16 and 17 and care-leavers aged 18–20 are accorded priority need status. Children’s legislation gives some protection up to age 1849. Nevertheless, young people aged 16 to 24 face a disproportionate risk of homelessness compared to their elders: they account for just over a third of all recorded homeless people in Scotland, but make up only 14% of the adult (16+) population in Scotland50. Data on youth homelessness has some limitations – in particular it is only possible to count young people who are in contact with services. Rough Sleepers 8.10.13 The number of people sleeping rough is relatively small. Table 8.10.6 indicates that, in Glasgow City and Renfrewshire, up to 5% of those applying as homeless had slept rough the night before applying. These figures have been steadily reducing over the past three years for most GCV authorities51 largely as a result of work targeted at tackling rough sleeping. 49

Anderson, Isobel and Thomson, Stephen, 2005, More Priority Needed: the impact of legislative change on young homeless people’s access to housing and support. Shelter. 50 Scottish Council for Single Homeless website, accessed 7 September 2010, based on 2002-03 dataset.

This data is based on the HL1 dataset, so it only records those sleeping rough who have contacted services; it may therefore be an underestimate.

136

TABLE 8.10.6 HOMELESSNESS APPLICATIONS WHERE A HOUSEHOLD MEMBER REPORTED SLEEPING ROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE APPLYING FOR ASSISTANCE, 2009-10 Authority

Total number of homelessness applications 2009-10

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

Applications where a household member reported sleeping rough the night before applying for assistance 2009-10 Average number per month 1 1 41 2 1 5 n/a 6

666 353 10,640 576 2,975 1,236 3,054 2,061

% of all applications 2 4 5 3 0 5 n/a 3

Source: The Scottish Government, August 2010, Homelessness Statistics: Annual Reference Tables: 2009-10. Percentages rounded to nearest integer.

8.10.14 There may be a small group of former, current and potential rough sleepers who are difficult to reach due to complex multiple needs and challenging behaviour. Conclusion 8.10.15 As we get closer to 2012, local authorities and other housing providers will come under increasing pressure in relation to the use of and demand for their housing stock, and related homelessness and support services, as a consequence of meeting the requirements of the 2003 Homelessness Act.

137

8.11

Domestic Abuse

8.11.1 Domestic abuse and violence necessitate the provision of specialist temporary and supported accommodation for households, whether male or female, across the GCV area to provide a place of safety for those affected. 8.11.2 Table 8.11.1 indicates the level of current need for temporary accommodation as a result of domestic abuse, by local authority area, based on Scottish Government figures for households presenting as homeless during 2009-10. The definition includes applications for homelessness assistance due to ‘Dispute within the household: violent or abusive’, but excludes homelessness applications to a local authority recorded as being due to ‘Dispute within household/relationship breakdown: non-violent’ and those ‘Fleeing non-domestic violence’. The accuracy of the data is therefore dependent on the accuracy of recording of the main reason for the application for homelessness assistance, which in turn is largely dependent on selfdisclosure by the applicant. The figures as a percentage of all homelessness applications indicate significant variation between the GCV authorities. The GCV average of 12% is slightly above the Scottish average of 10%. TABLE 8.11.1

HOUSEHOLDS PRESENTING AS HOMELESS AS A RESULT OF DOMESTIC ABUSE, 2009-10

Authority

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

Applications for homelessness assistance due to violent or abusive dispute within household 105 29 791 61 370 166 357 339

As % of all homelessness applications for the authority 16 8 7 11 12 13 12 16

2,218

12 [Scotland Av. = 10%]

GCV

Source: The Scottish Government, published 31 August 2010. Homelessness Statistics: Annual Reference Tables: 2009-10. Table 22 (a and b) Main reason for applying for assistance by local authority 2009-10.

Supply of Temporary and Refuge Accommodation 8.11.3 By far the majority of households presenting as homeless as a result of domestic abuse, are accommodated in temporary accommodation provided by local authorities, with a relatively smaller proportion accommodated in refuge accommodation provided by Women’s Aid organisations. There are 14 Women’s Aid organisations affiliated to Scottish Women’s Aid [SWA] in the GCV area, with at least one such organisation in each local authority area.

138

8.11.4 Refuge accommodation is designated only for households experiencing domestic abuse. The other accommodation is used by local authorities to meet the needs of other households deemed homeless. This accommodation includes various types and sizes. The circumstances of different households will vary greatly, for instance in terms of the size and composition of the household, and in terms of the length of stay required. 8.11.5 Although funding through the domestic abuse refuge development programme has increased the number of refuge spaces in Scotland, issues of substandard provision and inadequate provision remain. Table 8.11.2 offers a profile52 of Refuge accommodation (at Q4 2007); 41% of this was shared accommodation across the GCV area, better than the profile in Scotland as a whole (50% shared accommodation). TABLE 8.11.2

ACCOMMODATION PROVIDED TO WOMEN’S AID GROUPS

Authority

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire GCV

Accommodation provided (households) (Q4 2007) Shared 23 8 24 16 6

Self Contained 10 6 34 14 19 17 10

Total 10 6 57 8 38 19 33 16

110

187

Source: Scottish Women’s Aid

Accommodation Profile. February 2008. Edinburgh: Scottish Women’s Aid.

139

8.12

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Households

8.12.1 Communities Scotland published research in 2005 on the housing and support needs of older lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people in Scotland53, together with good practice guidance for service providers54 While the majority of the people interviewed were content with their current housing circumstances, a significant minority had experienced harassment in their home or neighbourhood, which in some cases had forced them to move home. Almost half the participants in the study felt they may experience barriers in the future in accessing quality services â&#x20AC;&#x201C; particularly residential care â&#x20AC;&#x201C; due to age (linked to a lack of respect), financial constraints, gender identity or sexual orientation. 8.12.2 The HMP therefore concluded, in terms of the HNDA process, that sexual orientation and gender identity issues were predominantly equality issues relating to service delivery rather than to provision of specially designed properties. Such issues require management solutions rather than bricks and mortar solutions, and would be most appropriately examined by authorities in the Local Housing Strategy.

Housing and support needs of older lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) people in Scotland. Research Report 54 [research summary published as Precis No. 67]. June 2005. Edinburgh: Communities Scotland. Ensuring equality for older lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people in Scotland. Homepointer No. 40. June 2005. Edinburgh: Communities Scotland

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8.13

Religion/ Belief

Background 8.13.1 For many people their religious faith and beliefs significantly influence their lives and some may wish to live within easy reach of a place of worship or particular school, or to live close to others sharing a religion or belief. Religion/ Belief in the GCV area 8.13.2 Table 8.13.1 illustrates the pattern of religious belief across the GCV authorities, based on the religion, religious denomination or body that people belonged to at the time of the 2001 Census. TABLE 8.13.1

CURRENT RELIGION OF PEOPLE [%], 2001

Current Religion

Authority EDC 43.05

ERC 41.5

GCC 31.52

IC 38.22

NLC 37.55

RC 41.54

SLC 43.68

WDC 35.74

22.55

20.7

29.2

35.79

34.52

23.15

22.12

33.41

5.57

5.27

4.06

5.32

4.09

4.73

4.64

4.28

0.08

0.14

0.21

0.07

0.06

0.08

0.07

0.05

Hindu

0.5

0.23

0.21

0.06

0.07

0.03

Jewish

0.04

3.5

0.19

0.01

0.02

0.06

0.02

Muslim

0.71

2.15

3.08

0.18

0.6

0.36

0.37

0.23

Sikh

0.78

0.47

0.41

0.1

0.06

0.17

0.06

0.07

Another religion None

0.34

0.37

0.66

0.3

0.23

0.34

0.29

0.22

22.04

22.7

13.47

16.72

23.82

22.51

19.39

4.33

4.68

7.76

6.5

6.1

5.71

6.12

6.56

108,243 100%

89,311 100%

577,869 100%

84,203 100%

321,067 100%

172,867 100%

302,216 100%

93,378 100%

Church of Scotland Roman Catholic Other Christian Buddhist

Not answered All People

Source: Census 2001, Table KS07: Current Religion.

8.13.3 In the main, over two-thirds of the population identify themselves as Christian, while around one in five are not affiliated to any traditional religious faith. There is a higher incidence of people in East Renfrewshire of the Jewish faith. The Muslim and Sikh faith groups are concentrated in Glasgow City and the neighbouring authorities of East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire. Some 42% of the Muslim population of Scotland and 36% of the Sikh population live in Glasgow City.

141

8.14

Gypsies/ Travellers

8.14.1 Gypsies/Travellers are a small but distinctive ethnic and cultural minority within the Scottish population. It is recognised that Gypsies/Travellers have specific requirements and should receive the same level of protection from prejudice and discrimination as other ethnic minority groups. There is a lot of diversity amongst Gypsy/Traveller communities in Scotland, including Scottish Gypsies/ Travellers, Irish Travellers, and European Roma. 8.14.2 Although not recognised as an ethnic minority group, there are also a small number of New Age Travellers, who choose to live an alternative travelling lifestyle for ideological reasons. Travelling Showpeople and Circus families are occupational travellers. 8.14.3 A key national data source is Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland: The Twice Yearly Count; the most recent results published by the Scottish Government are the summer count in July 2008 and the winter count in January 2009. We were able to supplement this with results of more qualitative research contained in the 2007 report, An Accommodation Needs Assessment of Gypsies/Travellers in West Central Scotland55 which was jointly commissioned by seven of the eight constituent local authorities, excluding North Lanarkshire. . Data for North Lanarkshire was obtained from the Council’s own accommodation needs assessment56, and other authorities also provided updating information where available. 8.14.4 This section of the HNDA is primarily concerned with provision of sites for Gypsies/Travellers who live for all, or part of the year, in a caravan or other mobile accommodation. 8.14.5 The ‘Twice Yearly Counts’, undertaken in January and July are based on an estimate of households living on official Council/RSL sites, private sites and unauthorised encampments. They do not include Gypsy/Traveller households living in bricks and mortar homes. At July 2007, 848 households were recorded as living on official Council and RSL sites, private sites and unauthorised encampments. Applying an average household size of 3.4, the (mobile) population based on the summer 2007 Count would be some 2,883. 8.14.6 Some flaws are recognised in the Twice Yearly Count. For instance, owners of private sites are under no obligation to participate in the Count, and owners of holiday/touring sites may be reluctant to disclose that they accept Gypsies/Travellers. It will potentially underestimate numbers if some encampments are not identified on the day the Count is taken. In addition, Gypsies/Travellers themselves tend to value their privacy. Nevertheless the Count is currently the best available national source of statistical information about the Gypsy/Traveller population in Scotland using sites and encampments, and offers an indication of trends in accommodation, travelling patterns and population size.

An Accommodation Needs Assessment of Gypsies/Travellers in West Central Scotland (June 2007). Report by Craigforth. An Interim Report on the Accommodation Needs of Gypsies/Travellers and Travelling Showpeople in North Lanarkshire. Stage 1 Report (April 2010) North Lanarkshire Council, Housing Development Section. 56

142

Current Demand and Supply in the GCV area 8.14.7 The number of Gypsy/Traveller households by local authority area and by type of site is indicated in Table 8.14.1 below. TABLE 8.14.1

GYPSY/TRAVELLER HOUSEHOLDS BY LOCAL AUTHORITY AND TYPE OF SITE [July 2008, January 2009] SUMMER [July 2008]

WINTER [January 2009]

AUTHORITY LA/RSL East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

5 0 0 0 0 0 30 23

Enc

Total

0 0 0 0 0 0 69 0

0 0 0 0 38 7 0 0

5 0 0 0 38 7 99 23

LA/RSL

Enc

Total

5 0 0 0 0 0 28 21

0 0 0 0 0 0 26 0

0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 6 54 21

26 30%

6 7%

86 100

292

22%

100

GCV Total Category as % of Total

58 34%

69 40%

45 26%

172 100

54 63%

[Population estimate]* [Scotland] [Households by category]

197

235

153

585

184

42%

22%

36%

100

56%

22%

Notes: LA/RSL – Official site provided by a Local Authority or RSL Pr – Private site Enc – Unauthorised encampment * Population estimate: multiply households by assumed average household size of 3.4 persons

Source: ‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.14: July 2008, and No.15: January 2009 In recognition of the variability of household numbers from year to year, Table 6.15.2 gives the same information, but averaged over 5 years and 8 years; this smoothes out short term variation and may provide a better indication of requirements for planning purposes.

8.14.8 Using the 8 year mean figures (Table 8.14.2), a number of patterns emerge:

South Lanarkshire accounts for some 60% of the Gypsy/Traveller households in the GCV area; West Dunbartonshire accounts for 15% and North Lanarkshire 12%, the remaining households being distributed across four of the other authorities

East Renfrewshire Council had no Gypsy/Traveller households (after correcting for misrecording of a travelling showpeople’s site)

South Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire and East Dunbartonshire had very limited or no unauthorised encampment activity, while this was more noticeable in North Lanarkshire, Renfrewshire and, to a lesser extent, Inverclyde and Glasgow City; this may suggest that there is less unofficial encampment activity where there is sufficient authorised or private provision to meet needs

Around one in five households is on an unauthorised encampment

A very significant proportion of the Gypsy/Traveller households in South Lanarkshire – over two-thirds – are located on private sites; this is twice the national average.

143

TABLE 8.14.2

GYPSY/TRAVELLER HOUSEHOLDS BY LOCAL AUTHORITY AND TYPE OF SITE [5 YEAR AND 8 YEAR MEAN] 5 YEAR MEAN [2004-2008]

8 YEAR MEAN [2001-2008]

AUTHORITY LA/RSL

Enc

Total

LA/RSL

Enc

Total 4 0 4 3 16 8 81 20

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire ^ Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

5 0 1 0 1 0 25 19

0 0 0 0 0 0 58 0

0 0 0 2 13 11 3 1

5 0 1 2 14 11 86 20

4 0 2 0 2 0 24 18

0 0 0 0 6 0 55 0

0 0 2 3 8 8 2 2

GCV Total Category as % of Total

51 37%

58 42%

30 22%

139 100

50 37%

61 45%

25 18%

136 100

[Population estimate]* [Scotland] [Households by category]

173

197

473

170

462

39%

20%

100

42%

37%

100

102 41%

207 22%

Notes: LA/RSL – Official site provided by a Local Authority or RSL Pr – Private site Enc – Unauthorised encampment ^ Figures quoted in the Twice Yearly Count for private site provision in East Renfrewshire were counted erroneously, as these relate to a site for travelling showpeople in Barrhead [Craigforth, 2007, An Accommodation Needs Assessment of Gypsies/Travellers in West Central Scotland, page 122]. For accuracy the figure has been adjusted here to zero. * Population estimate: multiply households by assumed average household size of 3.4 persons. Percentages rounded to nearest integer. Source: ‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.14: July 2008 [Table 10]

8.14.9 The relationship between supply and relatively footloose demand is not simple; in a real sense these figures represent supply of official or private sites as much as demand – households tend to gravitate to where there is a suitable site/pitch. However, geographical distribution may change over time, and may alter if additional supply of Council, RSL or private sites were introduced to the system. 8.14.10 There are no authorised short-stay sites or ‘stopping places’ in the GCV area. The local authorities have tended to focus attention on year-round sites. 8.14.11 Table 8.14.3 records the number of Gypsy/Traveller households on unauthorised encampments on the day of the Summer and Winter Counts from 2005 to 2009, by local authority area. As anticipated, travelling activity in summer is much higher than in winter. There is also, however, a high degree of variability from year to year. North Lanarkshire appears to have a relatively higher degree of encampment activity in both summer and winter in most years, while Renfrewshire mainly displays summer only activity.

144

TABLE 8.14.3

GYPSY/TRAVELLER HOUSEHOLDS ON ENCAMPMENTS AT TIME OF COUNT [SUMMER & WINTER]

Authority

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

No. of locations known to be used as encampments* 0 0 1 5 6 12 2 4

GCV Total

2005

Summer 2006 2007

2008

2005

2006

Winter 2007 2008

2009

0 0 0 0 3 4 6 0

0 0 0 5 5 22 7 0

0 0 2 3 17 6 0 5

0 0 0 0 38 7 0 0

0 0 0 0 5 0 5 0

0 0 0 3 5 0 2 0

0 0 0 0 19 0 2 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5

0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0

Note: Where figures vary between Counts No.14 and No.15, the higher figure has been used. Source: ‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.14: July 2008 and No.15: January 2009.

8.14.12 Table 8.14.4 examines use of unauthorised encampments in the six months prior to the Summer 2008 and Winter 2009 Counts. TABLE 8.14.4 USE OF ENCAMPMENT LOCATIONS JANUARY 2008 – JULY 2008 – JANUARY 2009 Authority

Number of locations used as encampments

Number of times occupation occurred of any encampment in the 6 months:

Total number of caravans involved in the 6 months:

Average encampment size

Jan 08 July 08

July 08 Jan 09

Jan 08 July 08

July 08 Jan 09

Jan 08 July 08

July 08 Jan 09

East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire

0 0 1 5 5 12 2 4

0 0 1 5 6 6 0 2

0 0 3 3 6 13 0 4

0 0 2 2 16 10 0 4

0 0 15 18 66 34 0 17

0 0 9 15 256 36 0 11

0 0 4.8 6.6 14.6 3 0 3.5

GCV Total

150

327

7.6

Source: ‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.14 July 2008 and No.15: January 2009. The table reflects the pattern previously noted: more significant encampment activity is located in North Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire, with lesser activity in Glasgow City, Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire. The size of individual encampments can vary considerably, so average size (right hand column) is a somewhat crude measure. For instance, it could be skewed by a single unusually large gathering for a one-off event. However, North Lanarkshire would appear to have an unusually large average encampment size (14.6), while the other GCV authorities range from 3 caravans to 6.6. This may suggest that encampments are in fact usually composed of a single family (or extended family), or a small group of friends travelling together. Data from the Count suggests that the Scottish average encampment size has been relatively stable at around 5 for several years. Length of stay is variable from a few days to one or two weeks.

145

Council/ RSL Site Provision 8.14.13 All the Council sites in the GCV area offer year-round accommodation. Tenancies of year-round sites are unrestricted in length, and tenants are permitted leaves of absence, generally of up to 12 weeks per year (for work, travelling, visiting relatives or holidaying), while retaining their tenancy. 8.14.14 Generally speaking, more detailed and accurate information is available relating to Gypsies/Travellers living on Council managed sites (based on Council management records), than is available for private sites or unauthorised encampments. For instance, the Gypsy/Traveller population living on Council/RSL sites is younger than the general Scottish population, this national pattern being reflected also on the GCV sites. In addition, the over 60s account for a smaller proportion of the Gypsy/Traveller population than the Scottish population as a whole, possibly reflecting a desire, or requirement on health grounds, to move to housed accommodation. 8.14.15 There are currently five Gypsy/Traveller sites available for use across the GCV area, offering 71 pitches, provided by four local authorities (Table 8.14.5). Craigforth noted in their West Central Scotland study (2007) that West Dunbartonshire Council had agreed in principle to consider the development of a new site, subject to funding being made available. TABLE 8.14.5 Authority & Sites

East Dunbartonshire

COUNCIL SITE PROVISION FOR GYPSIES/TRAVELLERS, 2009 Total Pitches

Pitches Avail. To Let

Let

Tenancy Profile <1 1–5 5 years year Years and over

Tenancy Change

Waiting List

Turned Away

Glasgow City

Inverclyde

Renfrewshire

South Lanarkshire [2 sites]

West Dunbartonshire

GCV Total

East Renfrewshire

North Lanarkshire

2 13

Sources: ‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.15: January 2009. Also: An Interim Report on the Accommodation Needs of Gypsies/Travellers and Travelling Showpeople in North Lanarkshire. Stage 1 Report (April 2010) North Lanarkshire Council, Housing Development Section. * The Council’s Report (2010) indicates that no pitches are usable and the site is currently closed.

146

8.14.16 Key points identified from the above study include:

four local authorities make no provision for Gypsies/Travellers – East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire and Renfrewshire

the Glasgow City site has a recent history of significant under-occupation, with a maximum occupancy of 2 or 3 households

East Dunbartonshire’s site is only one third occupied

The site in West Dunbartonshire is a popular and stable site: 13 out of 20 tenancies are over 5 years [of which 8 exceed 10 years], there is low turnover and a significant waiting list

both the South Lanarkshire sites, are stable and popular, with many long tenancies, low turnover, and considerable waiting lists.

Private Sites 8.14.17 Privately owned sites are used by Gypsies/Travellers who either do not want to access Council/RSL sites or are unable to do so. They include year-round residential sites and those used on a more seasonal basis. Private sites are often established by Gypsies/Travellers themselves and usually cater for specific families or extended families. This tends to mean they accommodate groups of people from largely the same ethnicity.57 8.14.18 There are five ‘official’ private sites in the GCV area, all in South Lanarkshire, providing a total of 71 pitches. Four of these sites are all-year-round sites which are specifically for the use of Gypsies/Travellers. The remaining site, at Crawford, is categorised for the Count as all-year-round, and is designed to operate as both a holiday site and a site for Gypsies/Travellers. Craigforth (2007) indicated that it operated an extended season (roughly March – November) with a regular clientele returning each year mainly for work purposes; it was also used as a short stay ‘stopping place’. South Lanarkshire Council granted planning consent for two additional private sites, with a total capacity of 8 pitches, within the last 18 months. These were not listed in the January 2009 Count, the most recently published, and no further details are available. Given their small size it is likely that each of these will be owned by a family/extended family or other close-knit group. Table 8.14.6 records occupancy over the period January 2007 – January 2009. TABLE 8.14.6

PRIVATE SITE OCCUPANCY, JAN. 2007 – JAN. 2009 Pitches * available

South Lanarkshire

Occupancy Jan 07 67

July 07 86

Jan 08 23

Comments July 08 69

Jan 09 26

Year round, mostly continuously occupied

Notes: * Planning consent was granted for two new private sites, with 8 pitches, after the January 2009 Count, and this additional provision has been excluded from this table. The West of Scotland Study by Craigforth collected data over the winter period 2006/07 and identified private site occupancy of 56; the discrepancy illustrates the speed with which occupancy can change. Sources: ‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.11: January 2007 – No.15: January 2009. Also: An Accommodation Needs Assessment of Gypsies/Travellers in West Central Scotland (June 2007). Report by Craigforth. Also: South Lanarkshire Council.

‘Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland – The Twice Yearly Count’ No.15: January 2009.

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Establishing Future Requirements 8.14.19 Increasing numbers of Gypsies/Travellers are becoming more permanently settled, including in bricks-and-mortar housing, possibly travelling only for short spells in the summer months. 8.14.20 Craigforth (2007) revealed the extent to which households are becoming more settled on sites. Only 40% of those interviewed travelled for significant periods of time (over 4 weeks per year), with 30% travelling for 2 to 4 weeks, usually on holiday and/or to visit family. Around 30% do not travel at all, mainly for health reasons or due to disability. In other words, for 60% of the population patterns of travel are very limited â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and not dissimilar to the holiday breaks enjoyed by many in the â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;settledâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; community. This shift in lifestyle may permit better access to education and health services, and employment opportunities. It seems likely that the trend will continue. But for many, for a variety of reasons, conventional housing will not be suitable in the long term. It is therefore important to continue to prioritise the provision of appropriate and suitably located sites so that people may have some choice about where to live. 8.14.21 Craigforth (2007), while recognising the inherent difficulties and limitations of available data, attempted a supply and demand comparison to quantify future pitch requirements. While using the Twice Yearly Count for some data, their model was also informed by their interviews with a sample of Gypsy/Traveller households. An allowance was made for future household formation of 35 households over 5 years. Craigforth concluded that there was a shortfall of some 53 pitches across the area. This study, however, included Argyll and Bute and the Ayrshire authorities (eleven authorities in total), but excluded North Lanarkshire. 8.14.22 Using the same modelling approach (Table 8.14.7) with data for the eight GCV authorities, a revised figure of a shortfall of 23 pitches has been derived. For reasons noted earlier, this may be an under-estimate. 8.14.23 Given the nature of travelling patterns, cross-boundary cooperation between GCV authorities is important and should be promoted as good practice in detailed planning of future provision.

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TABLE 8.14.7 ESTIMATE OF NEED FOR YEAR-ROUND PITCH PROVISION IN GCV AREA 2010 – 2015: SUPPLY AND DEMAND COMPARISON Supply Total pitch provision [71 Council and 71 private] Baseline position – pitch occupancy [8 year mean for Council (50) and private (61)] = Pitch provision which is unoccupied and available for use Wanting to move from sites to housing [assume 25% of site-based population] TOTAL

142 - 111 31 13 44

Need Seeking pitch – current Waiting List [26 Council; assume 0 private] Wanting to move from house to pitch [use Craigforth figure as default] On encampments but wanting official site living [use Craigforth figure as default] Future household formation over next 5 years [pro rata from Craigforth figure] TOTAL

- 26 -7 -9 - 25 - 67

Shortfall Need for new pitches

Notes: 1. The 8 year mean occupancy figures for Council and private sites have been used to average out anomalies 2. The Craigforth conclusion that 1 in 4 households living on Council sites expressed an interest in moving to a house has been applied to the Council 8 year mean occupancy figure of 50; this assumes no households on private sites wish to move to a house 3. In the absence of alternative evidence, the Craigforth figures for households ‘wanting to move from a house to a pitch’ and households ‘on encampments but wanting official site living’ have been used as a default. The five year average 2005-2009 of households on encampments in the GCV area at the Winter Count is 10.4 households, so the default of 9 is equivalent to assuming 87% of encampment households want official site living 4. The estimate of ‘future household formation’ has been derived as a proportion of the 111 occupied pitches – pro rata the Craigforth figure of 35 new households from 153 occupied pitches 5. No allowance has been made for pitch turnover; this would offer additional supply giving flexibility for, say, visiting family members. Source: Model and some data extracted from An Accommodation Needs Assessment of Gypsies/Travellers in West Central Scotland (June 2007) by Craigforth. Also data from previous tables.

Housed Gypsies/Travellers 8.14.24 The recent Review of the system of Twice Yearly Counts in Scotland58 discussed at some length ‘Housed Travellers’ [pp.16-18], who are not included in the current Count arrangements. From stakeholder consultation and Gypsy/Traveller interviews, it concluded that in some areas permanent housing may account for more than half of the Gypsy/Traveller population. Based on views gleaned from knowledge of family networks, the Review identified Glasgow and North and South Lanarkshire as areas where there may be a significant housed population or ‘uncounted’ population living on very small yards, in some cases attached to houses. 8.14.25 Craigforth (2007) came to the view that the majority of housed Gypsies/Travellers were in owner occupied housing, with a known major concentration in and around the Larkhall area in South Lanarkshire. The study noted that 1 in 4 of those interviewed living on sites/encampments expressed an interest in moving to bricks and mortar housing; for the vast majority, however, this was of no interest.

Britain, Amanda et al (2010) Review of the Twice Yearly Count of Gypsies/Travellers in Scotland. Report by Craigforth. Edinburgh: Scottish Government Social Research [Housing, Regeneration and Planning].

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8.14.26 Housing may be used temporarily for a range of reasons, including providing safety and security for young children or during periods of family illness or crisis; as a winter base to avoid harsh weather conditions; to provide settled periods for childrenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s education; or as an investment (Lomax et al, 2000)59. 8.14.27 As a result of the recent enlargement of the EU by accession of a number of Eastern European states, a Roma community has grown up, mostly located in Glasgow City.

Lomax, Delia, Lancaster, Sharon and Gray, Patrick (2000) Moving On: A Survey of Travellersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Views. Edinburgh: Scottish Executive Central Research Unit.

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8.15

Travelling Showpeople

8.15.1 The HNDA assesses the accommodation needs of travelling showpeople, in terms of the number of ‘yards’ required, at local authority level. 8.15.2 Glasgow City Council, with the majority of GCV sites, undertook a comprehensive survey to gain an understanding of the current provision of suitable accommodation for Travelling Showpeople. A number of established sites may have to be relocated because of major regeneration proposals, in Glasgow and South Lanarkshire, including, the M74 extension, facilities for the 2014 Commonwealth Games and various Clyde Gateway projects. 8.15.3 Showpeople are self-employed business people who travel the country, often within extended family groups. The community has a strong and distinctive culture, traditions and identity. 8.15.4 Travelling showpeople require a permanent base or depot (traditionally known as a ‘yard’) where they can store, maintain and repair their equipment and where they can store their caravans and other vehicles, when they are not travelling for the purpose of their business. This has traditionally been known as the ‘winter quarters’ site as historically it has only been through the winter months when a permanent base has been required. 8.15.5 Traditionally, in Scotland, travelling showpeople lived in large caravans and travelled around the country between March and October, usually returning to winter quarters in October. These winter quarters are often temporary sites. Significant changes have occurred in this traditional travelling pattern, and the community has generally become more settled. These changes include:

A reduction in the number of traditional fairs has resulted in a diversification of showpeople’s activities, involving more localised travelling and the need for more permanent bases on which to live and store/maintain equipment.

Travelling showpeople and their families now live mainly in permanently sited chalets/ static ‘mobile’ homes, which offer higher standards of accommodation and amenities than caravans. Whereas traditional winter quarters were simply for a caravan, now there is often need for space for a (bigger) chalet and also a car and a touring caravan for occasions when fairs are further afield and commuting is not possible. Space for storage of equipment is also required, including when equipment has to be parked while in transit between major events.

Many showpeople aspire to own their own yard and a number have bought their sites or negotiated longer leases. But from a planning point of view, they are often only granted short term ‘temporary’ planning consent, partly as sites are identified for future regeneration, and partly as chalets are considered not to be permanent structures. Despite repeated renewal this approach reduced security.

Some showpeople have chosen to live in houses, some having found difficulty in locating suitable property for a yard, or in obtaining permanent planning consent. If there is no suitable place to store and maintain equipment at their home, this may need to be kept elsewhere.

8.15.6 Generally the number of sites for travelling showpeople has diminished, as a result of redevelopment or through compulsory purchase. Some existing showpeople sites have become overcrowded.

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Current provision in the GCV area 8.15.7 Only four of the eight GCV local authorities have sites for travelling showpeople, and over 90% are located within Glasgow. The remaining are in East Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire, and South Lanarkshire. This is summarised in Table 8.15.1. TABLE 8.15.1

PROVISION FOR TRAVELLING SHOWPEOPLE, 2010

Authority

No. of Sites

No. of Pitches

Area [ha.]

Av. Density

East Renfrewshire Glasgow City North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire

1 50 1 2

25 713 12 62

? 19.78 ha.* 0.75 ha. 2.5 ha.

? 36/ha. 16/ha. 25/ha.

GCV

812

* No area given for 2 sites in Glasgow, accommodating 20 pitches. Excluding these sites would result in average density for Glasgow City of 35/ha. Source: Local authority data, 2010.

8.15.8 The profile of the sites includes:

sites vary in size from 2 pitches to 50 pitches; only 79 [around 10%] of these pitches are traditional ‘winter only’ quarters, the vast majority being ‘all year round’ pitches

densities vary from as low as 9/ha. up to over 100/ha. on one site – average density 36/ha.; however a number of sites are significantly under-occupied

less than two out of three pitches have permanent planning consent; and almost one in four is unauthorised or has ‘unknown’ planning status; the rest have time limited/temporary consents which may be renewable

some Glasgow sites are in industrial areas which are not considered suitable for residential use

there is significant variation in the standard of facilities, site layout and amenities available to residents.

Future Requirements 8.15.9 Consultation with the Showmen’s Guild indicated that the current numbers of travelling showpeople and their families is expected to increase slightly. The HMP is satisfied that there is no strategic need to plan for additional future accommodation requirements for travelling showpeople. Any requirements arising will be addressed through local authorities’ LDPs. 8.15.10 No circus proprietors are based in the GCV area and there are no yards used as winter quarters. Therefore, there is no need to make provision for this specific group of showpeople in the HNDA.

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