Tracking & Predicting Herd Inventory

By Sam Minor, Dairy Account Manager & Consultant

There is an old saying that goes, “You can never have too much of a good thing.” That saying, however, may not be true in all cases.

Take this example for instance: Some dairy producers have been creating nearly double the amount of calves needed for future herd replacement animals. The reasons for this include the use of sexed semen which delivers approximately 90% female offspring, the adoption of successful reproduction protocols that have allowed annual pregnancy rates to rise above 40%, and a decrease in cull rates due to better management and genetics for healthier animals with longer productive lives.

This excess of offspring gives dairy producers many options including the ability to: 1) choose and raise only the best animals; 2) sell excess females and males to cattle buyers for extra cash; 3) increase the dairy’s size rapidly; or 4) to have a cushion in case of a spike in calf mortality.

Excess replacements can also be viewed as a negative. The dairy industry is struggling with prices for milk and cull cows. Some producers who have depended on calf sales are finding they have an excessive heifer inventory with fewer buyers. The feed cost and labor to manage these extra animals can be a struggle too.

Ten years ago, GENEX developed a tool to help producers “right-size” their replacement herd through strategic breeding. That tool – still used by dairies across the world – is known as the Calf Math program.

Whether producing adequate or excess replacements, managing that inventory and understanding how and when it will impact the operation is important. For example, producers want to know when changes to the reproductive program will result in fewer breeding age heifers or what month the parlor will reach maximum capacity. Previously-available programs did not answer these questions as specifically or accurately as many would have liked. That’s why GENEX has introduced the HerdVentory program so dairy owners and their teams have a way to easily track and predict inventory.

You can never have too much of a good thing ... or can you?

Preparing for Future Inventory Distribution

Dairies are everchanging and hard to predict, but the HerdVentory program enables producers to be more prepared for future herd inventory distribution. For accurate prediction, the program requires important farm data figures. These include: freshening age distribution, % of the herd coded “do not breed,” past or future predictions of % female calves from heifers and cows, % stillbirth, % abortions and culling information.

With these figures and the calculations built into the program, herd inventory numbers can be predicted 12 months into the future.

Multiple Display Options

The HerdVentory program shows future inventory levels via graph and spreadsheet. The graph shows the predicted number of total heifers and total cows over the next 12 months.

The spreadsheet viewing option provides more detail. In the spreadsheet, herd inventories are grouped according to age. For instance, the heifer section includes several age groups enabling producers to quickly see how many head to expect to be on milk, of pre-breeding age, breeding age or prefresh during a given month.

Similarly, cows are grouped into first lactation and second lactation or greater and then into milking or dry categories. This is useful to help predict first lactation inventory so the dairy knows when more room is needed for incoming animals or when the milking parlor will reach capacity.

The HerdVentory program is one solution for better predicting herd inventory and aligning herd management to animal inventory. For more information or to utilize this program, contact your local GENEX representative.