Databank Group Research Leadership
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS DATE: March 16, 2009
GHANA
Analysis & Outlook THE CONSUMER INFLATION REPORT
February: Inflation Further Increased To 20.3%
Ghana: Inflationary Trends (2007 - 2009)
25.0
15.0 %
10.0
6%
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sept
Aug
Jun
May
Apr
3%
2%
8%
3% 46%
4%
8% 7%
2%
11%
Fo o d and No n-A lco ho lic B everages
A lco ho lic B everages, To bacco and Narco tics
Clo thing and Fo o twear
Ho using, Water, Electricity, Gas and Others
Ho useho ld Equipment and Others
Health
Transpo rtatio n
Co mmunicatio ns
Recreatio n and Culture
Educatio n
Ho tels, Cafes and Restaurants
M iscellaneo us Go o ds and Services
Ghana: 12 Month Pricing Trend 25.0
20.0
% 15.0
10.0
Combined
Food
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
5.0 May-08
March Inflation: Upward price adjustment for the recreation sub-group is likely to continue in March, while the continuing depreciation of the cedi will continue to firm up the index of the medical sub-group. The recent decreases in petroleum prices will not significantly reduce non-food inflation; though we expect the index of the transport sub-group to continue to dip marginally. Consequently, we expect inflation for March to increase by 126 basis points to 21.6%.
Headline - '08 Forecast - '09
National CPI Component Breakdown
Mar-08
Exchange rate depreciation will continue to put upward pressure on nonfood inflation in the second quarter of the year. The cedi to dollar exchange rate posted a year-to-date depreciation of 10.5% as at March 18, compared to 1.5% for the same period in 2008. We do not anticipate significant stability of the cedi against its major trading currencies in the second quarter, which could push non-food inflation above 25% by June. This combined with the seasonal pattern of food inflation could sustain the current high inflation rate levels during the first half of the year.
Mar
Headline - '07 Annual Average - '08
Analysis & Outlook: Ghana’s inflation outturn for February indicated a softening of price increases across all sub-groups of the country’s inflation basket compared to January. Inflation for February, however, remains to be mainly driven by the less volatile items in the country’s inflation basket such as the recreation and culture, as well as, the medical sub-groups. The index for the recreation and medical sub-groups continued to register the highest increases of 43.8 points and 23.4 points to 356.25 points and 454.8 points respectively in February. Inflation induced by less volatile items could stress monetary policy and make anticipated reductions in interest rates difficult; as core inflation will increase substantially. In our view, monetary policy easing will be difficult in the first half of the year.
Jul
5.0 Feb
Average inflation at the regional level increased to 20.95% in February from 20.0% during the previous month. Upper Region posted the highest inflation rate at 28.6%, while the Volta Region registered the lowest inflation rate at 14.4%.
20.4 19.9
Apr-08
The higher inflation outturn was facilitated by an increase of 117.7 basis points in non-food inflation to 21.3%. Food inflation, however, declined by 47.9 basis points to 18.95% in February. The index of all sub-groups of the country’s inflation basket increased, with the exception of the transport index. The transport index shed 7.75 points in February to 405.65 points.
21.6
20.0
Jan
Update: Average consumer prices for Ghana increased by 47.8 basis points in February, 2009 to 20.3% (y/y). The recent increase marks the fourth consecutive upturn in Ghana’s inflation rate since November, 2008; and is the highest outturn since December, 2004.
Non-Food
Disclaimer Policy: This Information has been compiled from sources we believe to be reliable but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy securities. This firm and its affiliates and their officers and employees may or may not have a beneficial interest in the securities mentioned herein. This firm and its affiliates may from time-to-time have a consulting relationship with a company being reported upon. This may involve the firm or the affiliates providing significant corporate finance services and acting as the company's official or sponsoring broker. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of that date and are subject to change without notice. Available only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investment.
DATABANK ECONOMICS│ Analyst: Sampson Y. Akligoh
sampson.akligoh@databankgroup.com