GeorGia’S
State of the State Poll
Costas Spirou, Ph.D. and Min Kim, Ph.D. Department of Government and Sociology Georgia College
Contents 1 3 5 9 13 19 23 27 31
Introduction Executive Summary Overall Direction and Key Issues Economy Political Leadership Government Education Health Care Survey Methodology
LIGHTHOUSE AT TYBEE ISLAND
2014 Georgia’s
State of the State Poll Georgia’s State of the State Poll (GSSP) is a statewide general survey of adults, age 18 and over, who are residents of the state of Georgia. The GSSP survey was conducted for the first time in spring of 2014 and included a combination of community, governmental, economic and special topical issue questions. Demographic data (age, location, gender, race, education, political ideology and income) offers additional information. A central aspect of public policymaking is the need for relevant, timely and accurate information. The GSSP will make a significant contribution to effective planning by engaging the state’s citizenry and increasing the understanding of various issues among policymakers and their constituents. The goals of the GSSP are to: • Gain a better understanding of resident attitudes and perceptions on key social, economic and political issues; • Educate Georgians about various issues facing the state; • Contribute to a statewide conversation; and • Inform current policy debates in order to improve the socioeconomic well-being of the state’s residents. We would like to thank the Office of the Provost and the Office of the College of Arts and Sciences Dean for their support of this project. Several faculty in the Department of Government and Sociology offered feedback on an earlier version of the survey; Brandy Kennedy, Jason Rich, Claire Sanders and Clif Wilkinson. Johnny Grant, director of community engagement and economic development at Georgia College, contributed to this project by providing critical insights on the instrument and by sharing his deep understanding of key issues facing the state. Finally, we would like to thank Lauren Crapo, graduate student in the MPA program and Erin Crisp and Katherine Hendley, undergraduate students in the political science program, for their assistance with data analysis. Costas Spirou, Ph.D. and Min Kim, Ph.D. Department of Government and Sociology Georgia College
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 1
MORGAN COUNTY COURTHOUSE
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 2
2014 Georgia’s
State of the State Poll executive Summary The Department of Government and Sociology at Georgia College has conducted its first Georgia’s State of the State Poll to find out about key issues facing the state and information about our political leaders. The survey was conducted by SSI, a national research leader in this area, from Feb. 5-18, 2014. The margin of error for the weighted sample is +/4.4 percentage points. among the respondents, the key highlights are: • Georgians are optimistic about the direction of the state. • Jobs, education and health care are the three most important issues facing the state. For minority residents, the issues of race and immigration are additional concerns. • Georgians do not expect significant changes in the economy during the coming year and would like to see greater effort on the economic development front. • Gov. Nathan Deal (Republican) and former Gov.Roy Barnes (Democrat) are the two politicians Georgians trust most. • The majority of Georgians are greatly dissatisfied with public education and would be willing to invest more money to improve the system. • Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans to lead the state in the next four years. • A little over half of Georgians blame both the executive and legislative branches of government in Washington, D.C. for the recent federal shutdown (Oct. 1-16, 2013), followed by the president, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. • A strong majority of Georgians oppose the use of public funds to support professional stadium facilities (e.g. Atlanta Falcons/Atlanta Braves). • Over half of Georgians oppose the decision to decline Medicaid expansion. • Most Georgians strongly oppose the ObamaCare: Affordable Care Act. • One-third of Georgians report being impacted by recent cuts in state programs and services, with women being most affected. • Georgians support the deepening of the Savannah Port.
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 3
UPPER DESOTO FALLS IN THE CHATTAHOOCHEE NATIONAL FOREST
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 4
overall Direction and Key issues State’s Direction…
60 51.3 50
More than half (51.3%) of Georgians think that the state is moving in the Right Direction, with 33.9% indicating that the state is moving in the Wrong Direction.
40
33.9
30 20
14.8
10 0
Right Direction
Wrong Direction
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Most important issue… The most important issues facing the state are Jobs (37.9%), Education (23.7%) and Health Care (14.1%). Residents from the middle part of the state report the highest concern with Jobs (40.7%) and Education (35.4%). Men report a greater concern with Jobs (45.4%) as do women (32.5%). Women also report great concern with Education (27.7%). AfricanAmericans also rank Racism (12.7%) higher, while Hispanics report Racism (14.5%), Immigration (10.5%) and Health Care (23.9%) as key issues.
40
37.9
35 30 23.7
25 20
14.1
15 10
4.3
5 0
Jobs
5.5
Education Health Immigration Crime Care
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 5
4.5
Racism
Most important issue…
South
50
Middle 40.4 40.7 38.5
40
North
35.4
34.4
Metro Atlanta 30 23.5 19.8
19.5
20
21.5
13
10
14.9 11.9
5.7 3.8
5.3
1.6 1.8
0
Jobs
50
Education
Health Care
11.1 5.2
4.6
3.8
3.9
2.8
1.1
Immigration
Crime
Racism
45.4 Men
40 32.5
Women 27.7
30
18
20
16.4 11
10
6.6 2.7
0
Jobs
50
Education
Health Care
Immigration
7.4 4.2
5.6
Crime
3.1
Racism
White
46.3 40.7
African-American
40 33.8
Hispanic 28.5
30
23.9 20
15.7
15.9 10.3
10
0
4.6 Jobs
Education
Health Care
12.7
10.5
10.2 2
Immigration
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 6
14.5
4.9 4.7 0 Crime
.9 Racism
THE OLD GOVERNOR’S MANSION, GEORGIA COLLEGE
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ATLANTA SKYLINE
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economy
economy a year from now…
Georgians believe that a year from now the state’s economy will be in about the Same Condition (42.5%); will be better (35.7%); will get Worse (17.1%). Almost a fourth (22.7%), express Strong Dissatisfaction with the economic development efforts taking place in their area. Just 12.3 % express Strong Satisfaction. Among all Racial/Ethnic groups, AfricanAmericans report the greatest level of overall Dissatisfaction with such efforts (64.0%).
50 42.5 40
35.7
30
20
17.1
10 4.6 0
Worse
About the Same
Better
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
economic Development efforts… 35
31.6 28.1
30 25
22.7
20 15
12.3
10 5.3 5 0
Very Satisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Somewhat Dissatified
Very Dissatisfied
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 9
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
economic Development efforts… 60
White
52.6
AfricanAmerican
50 40
Hispanic
35.5 32.1 27
30
28.5
26.9
23.9
20.6 20
15.6
13.3 10
7.9
6.9
7.2 2.1
0
Very Satisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Somewhat Dissatified
Very Dissatisfied
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Regarding the use of public funds to support professional stadium facilities (new stadium for the Atlanta Falcons/Atlanta Braves), 76.2% of respondents oppose such action, while 19.0% support this type of public investment.
Public Funding for Professional Stadiums… 80
76.2
70 60 50 40 30 20
19
10 0
4.8 Yes
No
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 10
0
Savannah Port Deepening… Georgians are in support (56.3%) of the Savannah Port deepening project. 60
56.3
50 40 30
24 19.7
20 10 0
Yes
No
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
SAVANNAH
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 11
STARR'S MILL, A HISTORIC LANDMARK NEAR ATLANTA
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Political leadership Among Republican politicians, Georgians trust Nathan Deal (16.7%), Casey Cagle (13.8%) and Saxby Chambliss (13.2%) the most. Those that declare themselves as Liberal trust Cagle (13.9%), Deal (13.1%) and Chambliss (12.9%). Those that declare themselves as Moderate trust Cagle (21.1%), Deal (12.3%) and Isakson (11.8%). Those that declare themselves as Conservative trust Deal (20.1%), Chambliss (15.4%) and Cagle (12.6%). Deal is the most trusted Republican politician among both women (15.5%) and men (18.4%).
Most Trusted republican‌
50
40.2 40
30
20
16.7 13.8
13.2 9.9 10
0
6.1
Nathan Deal
Johnny Isakson
Saxby Chambliss
Jack Kingston
Casey Cagle
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
25 Liberal
21.1
20.1 20
Moderate 15.4
15
13.1
12.3
10
11.8
13.9
12.9
Conservative 12.6
11.1 9.5
8.3
5
0
Nathan Deal
Johnny Iskason
Saxby Chambliss
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Casey Cagle
Most Trusted republican… Women 20
18.4
Men 15.9
15.5
14.7
15
12.7
11.9
11.2
10 7.2 5
0
Nathan Deal
Johnny Iskason
Saxby Chambliss
Casey Cagle
Among Democrat politicians, Georgians trust Roy Barnes (20.1%), John Lewis (11.9%) and Kassim Reed (9.1%) the most. Those that declare themselves as Conservative trust Barnes (23.5%); Reed (9.4%) and Lewis (5.9%). Those that declare themselves as Moderate trust Barnes (22.8%), Lewis (21.2%) and Reed (8.9%). Those that declare themselves as Liberal trust Lewis (20.1%), Jason Carter (19.0%) and Barnes (13.4%). Barnes is the most trusted Democrat politician among women (23.1%) and Lewis among men (16.4%).
Most Trusted Democrat… 50
45.9
40
30 20.1
20 11.9 10
0
8.2
9.1 4.8
Jason Carter
Kassim Reed
Michele Nunn
John Lewis
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Roy Did Not Know/ Barnes Did Not Respond
Most Trusted Democrat… 23.5 22.8
25
20
21.2 20.1
19
Liberal Moderate Conservative
15
10
13.4
8.6
8.9
9.4
7 3.8
5
0
5.9
Jason Carter
Kassim Reed
John Lewis
Roy Barnes
Most Trusted Democrat… Women 25
23.1
Men
20 16.4
15.8
15 10.5 10
8.5
8.8 7.7
7.2
5
0
Jason Carter
Kassim Reed
John Lewis
Roy Barnes
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 15
Georgians trust Democrats (40.2%) and Republicans (36.9%) to lead the state over the next four years. Women trust Democrats (45.9%) while men trust Republicans (40.6%). African-Americans trust Democrats (77.9%) and whites trust Republicans (51.1%).
Party to lead State Next Four Years… 50 40.2 40
36.9
30
20
15.2 7.6
10
0
Republican
Democrat
Other Party
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Party to lead State Next Four Years… Women 50
45.9
Men
40.6 40 34.3
32.2
30 20.7 20 11.3 8.5
10
0
Republican
Democrat
Other Party
6.4
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 16
Party to lead State Next Four Years… 77.9
80
White 70 African-American 60 51.1
Hispanic
50 39.7
40 30.4 30
29.9 24.6 15.9
20 9.3
10 0
5.9 Republican
Democrat
Other Party
Most (50.4%) of Georgians hold the executive and legislative branches of government in Washington, D.C. responsible for the recent federal shutdown (Oct. 1-16, 2013). Next, they hold responsible the President (20.6%); U.S. Senate (16%); U.S. House (13.0%). Whites consider the president to be responsible for the federal shutdown (29.0%), with just 1.8% of African-Americans feeling the same way.
responsible for Federal Shutdown…
60
76.5
80
50.4 50
White 70
51.4 44.5
60
40
50
30
40
16
20
30
13
20
10 0
10 0
President
33.2
29
20.6
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
All
20.5
18.4 9.4 1.8 President
5.1
U.S. Senate
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 17
10.2
U.S. House
All
AfricanAmerican Hispanic
GEORGIA STATE CAPITOL BUILDING
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 18
Government Most Trusted level of Government… Georgians trust about equally the various levels of government (Federal, State, County, City). The level of trust toward the Federal government among Liberals is 43.1%, while for Conservatives is just 18.1%. AfricanAmericans (39.4%) and Hispanics (52.6%) report the highest levels of satisfaction with the Federal Government.
30 25.6 25
22.2
21.4
19.9 20 15
10.9 10 5 0
Federal
State
County
City
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Most Trusted level of Government… Liberal Moderate
50 43.1
Conservative
40
30
20
28.9
27.7
27.1 24.5 18.1
19.2
16.9 16.5
19.3
17 13.6
10
0
Federal
State
County
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 19
City
Most Trusted level of Government… White AfricanAmerican
60 52.6
Hispanic
50 39.4
40 30
20.4 21.4
20.1
23.5
27.3
25.5 20.9
20 7.8
10
0 0
Federal
State
County
City
Georgians report that the County/City level of government (36.8%) provides them with the greatest return on their tax investment, followed by the Federal Government (33.0%) and the State Government (20.8%).
Greatest return on Tax investment… 40 35
36.8 33
30 25 20.8 20 15 9.4
10 5 0
Federal
State
County/City
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 20
23.9
Regarding cuts in state programs and services, 66.7% of Georgians indicate that they have not been impacted by these actions. On the other hand, 31.1% report a direct impact of these cuts on their household. More women (34.9%) than men (25.7%) report that their households have being impacted by these cuts.
impact of State Cuts… 80 66.7
70 60 50 40 31.1 30 20 10 0
2.2 Yes
No
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
impact of State Cuts… Women 80 71.6 70
Men
63.3
60 50 40
34.9 25.7
30 20 10 0
1.8 Yes
No
2.8
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 21
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 22
education Only 9% of Georgians report Strong Satisfaction with public education with 24.1% conveying Strong Dissatisfaction. Under half (40.3%) report that they are Somewhat Satisfied with public education. The greatest level of dissatisfaction with public education comes from South Georgia area residents (35.3%). 50
Public education Satisfaction… 40.3
40
30 24.1
24
20
10
9 2.6
0
Very Satisfied
Somewhat Satisfied
Somewhat Dissatisfied
Very Dissatisfied
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Public education Satisfaction… North Middle 60
South 51.5
50
Metro Atlanta
45.4 38.9
40
35.3
34
30
27.6
24.3 19.7 16.7
20 11.4 10.4 10 0
9
Very Satisfied
23.1 16.8 17.4
8.5
Somewhat Satisfied
Somewhat Dissatisfied
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 23
Very Dissatisfied
When asked to consider paying more taxes to provide better educational opportunities for children, 53.5% indicate willingness to do so, while 44.3% would not pay more taxes. Both women (54.3%) and men (52.5%) would be willing to pay more in taxes to support education. African-Americans (72.7%) and Hispanics (84.4%) indicate the greatest level of willingness to pay more taxes to provide better educational opportunities for children.
Pay More to improve Public Schools… 60
53.5
50
44.3
40 30 20 10 2.2 0
Yes
No
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Pay More to improve Public Schools… Women 60
54.3
Men
52.5
50
46 43.1
40 30 20 8
10
1.5 0
Yes
No
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 24
Pay More to improve Public Schools… Yes 100 No 84.4 80
72.7
60
52.9 45.7
40 24.5 15.6
20
0
White
African-American
Hispanic
NORTH GEORGIA WINE COUNTRY
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CUMBERLAND ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 26
Health Care Georgians report disagreement (59.6%) with the decision to decline Medicaid expansion. The disagreement is higher among women (64.9%) than men (52.1%) and among African-Americans (82.9%) than Whites (51.1%).
Decision to Decline Medicaid expansion… 38.8
40 35 30 25
20.8
20
16
14.2
15
10.1 10 5 0
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Decision to Decline Medicaid…
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
Women
50 Men
43.8 40 31.7 30 21.1 20.4
20.6 17.9
20 12.8
11.6
10
0
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 27
Decision to Decline Medicaid… 80 70
63.3
White
60 African-American 50
30
38.3
34.2
40
28.6 19.3
0
19.6
16.3
20 10
Hispanic
7.9
22.5 19.6 7.9
5.5
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Disagree
Somewhat Disagree
Georgians Strongly Oppose (41.0%) the ObamaCare: Affordable Care Act with 25.9% Strongly Favoring the Act. Men are more likely to Strongly Oppose the Act (45.6%) than women (37.8%). While African-Americans Strongly Favor (58.8%) the Act, whites Strongly Oppose (57.6%) the Act.
obamaCare: affordable Care act approval… 50 41 40
30
25.9 19.3
20
9.8 10 4 0
Strongly Favor
Somewhat Favor
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 28
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
obamaCare: affordable Care act approval… Women 50
45.6 37.8
40
30
Men
28.2 22.6 18.5
20
20.5
10.1 10
9.2 5.4 2.1
0
Strongly Favor
Somewhat Favor
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
obamaCare: affordable Care act approval…
White 58.8
60
57.6 African-American
51.7 50
Hispanic
40
20
14.5
14.1
13
10 0
28.7
27.4
30
10.3 5.1
Strongly Favor
7 3.5
Somewhat Favor
Somewhat Oppose
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 29
Strongly Oppose
5
3.4 0
Did Not Know/ Did Not Respond
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 30
Survey Methodology The 2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll was a telephone survey of randomly selected adults in the state of Georgia. Five hundred (500) Georgia adults were interviewed by landline and cellular telephone between Feb. 5 and Feb. 18, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.4%. This survey was conducted through the use of Random Digit Dialing (RDD). A sample of households in the area was selected via random digit dialing. The random sample used in the 2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll was provided by SSI. SSI screens each selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve the efficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of time interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. Each of these randomly generated telephone numbers is contacted by one of SSI interviewers. This selection process ensures that every adult (18 years of age or older) in the household has an equally likely chance of being included in the survey. Interviews were completed with 500 randomly selected adults in Georgia from a sample of 12,725 randomly selected telephone numbers. The data have been weighted to account for known biases of telephone surveys. The results presented here have been weighted to reflect current population demographics as reflected in the most recent available Census data. The data in the 2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll are weighted by the number of adults to equalize the chances that any one adult would be selected for inclusion. The data are also weighted by respondent sex, age and race. In addition to providing results for the state as a whole, some findings also are broken down by the four major regions of the state: North, Middle, South and Atlanta metropolitan area. The map illustrates the counties in each region.
2014 Georgia’s State of the State Poll | 31
GEORGIA’S
State of the State POLL
For more information about Georgia’s State of the State Poll (GSSP) please contact: Costas Spirou, Ph.D. Professor and Chair Department of Government and Sociology Georgia College Milledgeville, GA 31061 478-445-4562 costas.spirou@gcsu.edu