Impact of COVID-19 on Plant Sales and Purchasing Habits in the Southeast

Ben Campbell Alicia Rihn Julie Campbell

Curbside Pickup Available Curbside Pickup Available Curbside Pickup Available

On January 31, 2020 the Secretary of Health and Human Services declared a public health emergency to deal with the novel COVID-19 virus (HHS, 2020). By March 13, 2020, the concern around COVID-19 had been elevated to a nationwide emergency (FEMA, 2020) and many states began to implement lockdowns. These lockdowns and the subsequent reactions to COVID-19 have had a potentially profound impact on the green industry.

CHANGES IN PLANT EXPENDITURES

In order to better understand the impact of COVID-19 on the Green Industry, 650 consumers from throughout the Southeast were surveyed in late July 2020 about their plant purchasing habits. From the time periods between January-July 2019 to January-July 2020 consumers in the southeastern U.S. increased their plant purchasing by 3.4%. This equates to around $132 million in increased sales for the industry. This increase cannot completely be attributed to COVID-19 as plant purchasing was trending upward over the last couple of years. However, we can have some confidence that the change is due to COVID-19 given plant purchasing generally follows the economy (i.e., economy slows, plant purchasing decreases). In March 2020 when COVID-19, and specifically stay-at-home orders and business closures hit, the economy came to a drastic stop. Given the direct connection between the economy and plant sales, the expectation would be that a decrease in plant sales would occur. However, this is not what happened in many states. For instance, 6 of the 8 states surveyed had increases in plant sales, with Tennessee and South Carolina being the only exceptions.

CHANGES IN SHOPPING PATTERNS

During the coronavirus pandemic, the way consumers purchased plants changed, especially from state-to-state. Notably, both curbside and online purchasing increased. On average, curbside pickup increased by 4.7% while online purchasing increased by 4%. However, the change varied considerably by state and type of retail outlet. For instance, Alabama saw a 6% increase in curbside sales with only a 2% increase online. Florida saw a 7% increase in curbside and a 10% increase of purchases online. Tennessee saw the largest change with nearly 17% increase of curbside sales and an 11% increase in online purchases. While in Georgia, there was relatively little change in shopping patterns.

POST-COVID-19 SHOPPING PATTERNS

Though making quick recommendations to industry stakeholders is important, it is vital to realize that post-COVID-19 purchasing behaviors may or may not resemble pre- or during-COVID-19 purchasing patterns. Therefore, before producers and retailers expend resources on making changes in anticipation of the post-COVID-19 world, they should understand how consumers envision their purchasing habits. For instance, 57% of respondents perceived themselves as going back to their pre-pandemic purchasing habits (Table 2). This ranges from 48% in Alabama to 68% in Tennessee. Approximately 15-20% of consumers surveyed indicated even post-pandemic they plan on maintaining the same purchasing patterns they were displaying during the pandemic. The remaining 20-30% of consumers perceived their purchasing habits changing but including a mix of pre- and during pandemic levels. A majority of consumers that either decreased or increased their curbside purchasing during

the pandemic perceive themselves as returning to pre-pandemic purchasing patterns (i.e., instore) once the pandemic ends. For instance, 53% of respondents that decreased their curbside purchasing during the pandemic indicated they would return to normal after the pandemic. However, 47% indicated they planned to continue to purchase less from curbside options after the pandemic. For consumers that increased their purchasing at curbside during the pandemic, 59% indicated they would return to normal (i.e., in-store) after the pandemic. Twenty percent indicated they wanted to continue purchasing curbside as they had during the pandemic. While the final 21% of consumers purchasing curbside during the pandemic, would revert back to purchasing in-store. For online purchasing, a majority of consumers indicated they would return to their pre-pandemic purchasing patterns. Of the consumers that purchased more plants online during the pandemic, 56% indicated they would purchase less online once the pandemic ends. Twenty percent noted they planned on purchasing less online after the pandemic with 24% planning to purchase online more than pre-pandemic but less than during

RECOMMENDATIONS

For the majority of customers, the post-pandemic plant buying world will look very similar to the prepandemic plant buying world. Though the return to pre-pandemic levels may not be instant, a majority of consumers perceive their purchasing habits and plant expenditures to revert to pre-pandemic norms. Given these findings, producers and retailers should make sure they thoroughly analyze the market, especially their customer bases, in order to make informed decisions about how they change the way they do business.

Ben Campbell is an associate professor and extension economist for the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics at the University of Georgia. Alicia Rihn is an assistant professor for the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of Tennessee. Julie Campbell is an assistant research professor for the Department of Horticulture at the University of Georgia. Article adapted from Campbell, Rihn, and Campbell (2020a, 2020b). To read the full text with visual aids, click here.

PROTECTING YOUR BUSINESS ISN’T CHILD’S PLAY.

There’s no substitute for the real thing. You know that. So do we. That’s why we put more than 130 years of horticulture industry-speci c experience to work every day. So when you and your business need us most, you always have someone to turn to.

800-541-5082 hortica.com