NEWS

Corona Updates: European Commission Recognizes Georgian Covid Passports

BY ANA DUMBADZE

The epidemiological situation in Georgia remains tense, with more than 80 deaths being reported almost daily this week.

Health offi cials note that only immunization will put an end to the diffi cult epidemic situation.

THE STATISTICS

On Tuesday, Georgia recorded 5204 coronavirus cases, 4785 recoveries, and 83 deaths. Tbilisi recorded the highest number of 1857 Covid-19 cases, followed by the Imereti region with 1008 cases, and the Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti region with 443 cases.

On Wednesday, the country reported 4732 coronavirus cases, 4812 recoveries, and 72 deaths. Tbilisi recorded 1884 cases, followed by Imereti with 878 cases and Kvemo Kartli with 425 cases.

On Thursday, Georgia reported 4446 coronavirus cases, 5320 recoveries, and 77 deaths. Tbilisi again recorded the highest number of 1646 Covid-19 cases, followed by the Imereti region with 819 cases, and Shida Kartli with 422 cases.

Georgia’s total case tally since the fi rst case in February reached 800, 293, among them 737, 316 people recovered and 11, 289 died.

As of November 18, 1 074 270 people got the Covid-19 vaccine. TRAVEL

This week was marked by important news for travelers: the European Commission decided to recognize Georgian passports.

Georgia, for its part, also agreed to accept the EU COVID Certifi cate for travel from the EU to the country.

The decision implies Georgian citizens who have a certifi cate of full vaccination will be able to move around the EU.

The Covid Certifi cate issued by Georgia on vaccination, tests and recovery from Covid is recognized by the European Union and is equivalent to the certifi cates issued by the relevant EU regulation, which aims to promote the free movement of people within the EU.

The decision of the European Commission is valid from November 16 and also concludes that Georgia has joined the EU digital certifi cation system.

For waiving free movement restrictions, EU member states are obliged to accept the vaccines the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has authorized – Pfi zer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Janssen (Johnson and Johnson) jabs. Some member states have also opted to accept vaccines on the WHO emergency list, including Sinopharm and Sinovac, which Georgia administers.

Alongside Georgia, Moldova, Serbia, and New Zealand were also connected to the EU’s travel pass system.

Georgia’s COVID certifi cate can be obtained at Public Service Hall and its Service Centers, or digitally on covidpass.moh.gov.ge. The authorities are also testing a smartphone application for the passes.

THE VACCINATION CAMPAIGN

Following the announcement of the introduction of the Green Passports concept from December 1, the vaccination rate across the country has increased, which is promising, reports the Ministry of Health.

“On November 8, the vaccination program launched a fi nancial incentive scheme for people over the age of 60, which gave impetus to the expansion of the vaccination program in this age group.

“Among the vaccinated, the number of people in the 60-year-old age group increased structurally from 28% to 44%. Yesterday's vaccination rate exceeds 8000, which is promising, and we think an even greater increase can be expected.

“The booster doses are also being administered in any age group over 12 years of age. Booster doses are especially high in the age group of 18 to 49. As for the vaccination of children aged 12 to 15 years, 643 doses were administered. More than 11,000 adolescents between the ages of 16 and 18 have been vaccinated,” Deputy Health Minister Tamar Gabunia announced on November 16.

“Vaccination dynamics have improved slightly over the last week, in the range of 8,200. What is promising is that for 60% of them, it was the fi rst dose. The share of vaccines in the age group above 60 is also increasing. More than 12,000 people over the age of 60 have been vaccinated in the last week,” NCDC Head Amiran Gamkrelidze added.

THE CASES WORLDWIDE

Regarding the epidemiological situation worldwide, important news is that the US drug company Pfi zer penned a deal to allow its experimental Covid-19 treatment pill to be made and sold in 95 developing nations.

The deal with the UN-backed Medicines Patent Pool non-profi t could make the treatment available to 53% of the world's population, the BBC reported.

Yet it excludes several countries that have had large Covid-19 outbreaks, including Brazil.

In a statement on Tuesday, Pfi zer said the agreement will allow local medicine manufacturers to produce the pill "with the goal of facilitating greater access to the global population."

Pfi zer says the pill lessens the risk of severe disease in vulnerable adults, while in early November, Pfi zer said clinical trials suggest that its Covid-19 pill, Paxlovid, cuts the risk of hospital admission or death by 89% for high-risk adult patients.

Doctors Without Borders said in a statement to the Associated Press that it was "disheartened" that the deal doesn't make Pfi zer's Covid-19 pills available everywhere in the world.

In October, another drugmaker, Merck, announced a similar deal with the Medicines Patent Pool to allow manufacturers to produce its own Covid-19 pill, Molnupiravir.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has said that Europe was the only region in the world where Covid-related deaths increased last week after a rise of 5%.

In its weekly report on the pandemic issued on Tuesday, the WHO also said cases jumped 6% globally, driven by a rise in the Americas, Europe and Asia.

WHO said Covid-19 deaths in all regions other than Europe remained stable or declined last week, totaling 50,000 worldwide.

It was the seventh consecutive week that COVID-19 cases continued to mount across the 61 countries that WHO counts in its European region, which stretches through Russia to Central Asia.

Within Europe, WHO said the highest numbers of new cases were in Russia, Germany and the United Kingdom. It noted that deaths jumped by 67% in Norway and by 38% in Slovakia.

In the last week, Austria put tight restrictions on the movement of unvaccinated people, while the Netherlands and some other European countries reintroduced lockdown measures, and the UK decided to roll out booster doses to everyone over 40.

The Chinese Are Doing What the Mongols Did Before Them, Only Better

BY EMIL AVDALIANI

The vast attention paid to China’s Belt and Road Initiative misses the historical precedents on which it is based. Hearkening back to the nomadic understanding of geography of medieval times, the Chinese are following through on what the Mongols, and later Tamerlane, attempted: to unify the Eurasian landmass by establishing trade routes and encouraging commercial activities from the Mediterranean to the Pacifi c.

Nascent Chinese Eurasianism is slowly taking shape. It is a concept not so much of forceful engagement of Eurasian states by China, as some in the West view it, but rather an economic initiative that aims to gain access to the natural and fi nancial resources of major Eurasian states by providing them with large sums for infrastructure projects.

The Chinese idea obviously requires control over major trade routes to and from Europe (a market of almost 500 million people).

Though invisible on geographic or political maps, trade corridors and control over them have been a major driving force in the development of Eurasia. Conquests and invasions were often motivated by the need to secure fi nancial resources running through major trade routes in Central Asia and from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

Western powers have sought access to the huge Chinese market for centuries. Geography has largely precluded this, however, as the Chinese hinterland is closed off by the Himalayas, the Gobi Desert, and the Eurasian steppes. In ancient and medieval times, the only land route connecting the Chinese kingdoms to the outer world was through the modern Xinjiang province.

A further limiting factor was that the Chinese were never particularly eager to trade with foreigners (the country had most of what it needed and functioned primarily as an autarkic state). Chinese policies did not refl ect any kind of Eurasian vision. The country’s rulers considered neighboring states tributaries, but knew little of far-fl ung Eurasian lands. No economic necessity propelled them to venture far away.

But today’s nascent Chinese Eurasianism can nevertheless be dated to back to medieval times. It parallels what other Asian powers tried to do centuries ago. Ironically, it was China’s gravest enemy, nomads, among them the Mongols,who had a clear vision of transcontinental trade between China and the Mediterranean world.

Continued on page 6

NOVEMBER 19 - 25, 2021 POLITICS

3 Saakashvili’s Case Continues to Divide and Distract the Country

Continued from page 1

Garibashvili is reported to have told him that, “the condition of all prisoners, including Mikheil Saakashvili, is closely monitored at penitentiary institutions of Georgia, and adequate medical services are rendered to inmates round the clock, 24/7.”

He further emphasized that “Saakashvili is a citizen of Georgia,” and as such “is permitted to accept visitors.” Garibashvili noted that lawyers, family members and members of the Parliament of Georgia have visited him unhindered, and since admission to the penitentiary institution, he has received over 100 visitors.

“President Zelensky touched upon the topic of Mikheil Saakashvili's transfer to the prison hospital, upon which PM Garibashvili noted that the prisoner in question expressed resistance, along with verbal and physical abuse towards the staff and physicians of the facility,” the government administration reports. “Accordingly, the administration of the penitentiary institution carried out measures promulgated in the law.

“During the conversation, the Head of Government of Georgia assessed the unlawful behavior of Mikheil Saakashvili as provocative, destructive and threatening to the stability of the country. He also highlighted to the Ukrainian president that citizens of Ukraine have no legitimate right to intervene in the domestic affairs of Georgia.”

“The Prime Minister of Georgia also told the President of Ukraine that fugitive Saakashvili had entered the country by illegally crossing the sovereign border, when he was already convicted and charged for various grave crimes,” the administration wrote.

President Zelensky is said to have inquired whether Ukrainian doctors could be permitted to check Saakashvili’s condition, to which PM Garibashvili assured him that prisoner Saakashvili is “being taken care of by high-caliber healthcare professionals of Georgia.”

“Mikheil Saakashvili's basic laboratory indicators are normal, other diagnostic tests are being carried out intensively, and his life is not in danger,” Giorgi Chidrashvili, Deputy Head of the Medical Department of the Special Penitentiary Service of Georgia, said on Tuesday.

He explained that the life of the convict Mikheil Saakashvili is not in danger at the 18th medical institution, adding that his condition is stable and his vital signs, such as blood pressure, pulse, respiration and saturation, are normal.

“Key laboratory indicators are also within the norm. He is under intensive laboratory and other diagnostic examinations. Accordingly, he is being provided with appropriate medical services. His condition is under constant control and is not in danger,” Chidrashvili said.

Although Saakashvili said on November 12 he would consider ending his hunger strike, he noted that he will only do so if he is moved to a civilian hospital for treatment and recovery.

“The process of rehabilitation after starvation is much more complicated than the process of starvation management, and Gldani Hospital has neither the technological conditions nor the properly qualifi ed medical staff,” he wrote.

On Thursday, a multi-profi le group of nine experts created by Public Defender Nino Lomjaria prepared a report on Saakashvili's condition. All nine agreed that Saakashvili's condition is “critical” and they recommended he be immediately transferred to a multi-profi le civilian hospital for treatment.

The content of the conclusion was introduced to the media by Dr. Giorgi Grigolia.

“We assessed the condition of Mikheil Saakashvili as critical as he has been on a hunger strike for 48 days,” he said. “He needs intensive treatment. His condition becomes more complicated on a daily basis. All organs are damaged as a result of hunger. The patient needs to receive treatment from multidisciplinary specialists, endocrinologists, nephrologists, gastroenterologists, etc. Unfortunately, the Gldani Prison clinic does not provide their service permanently - they can be called, but they are not present on-site 24/7. In the event of a possible aggravation of the situation, the Gldani Prison Hospital will not be enough,” Grigolia noted.

The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) on Tuesday this week decided to indicate interim measures in the case Saakashvili v. Georgia concerning the applicant’s health.

“The Court has requested that the Government inform it about Mikheil Saakashvili’s current state of health, ensure his safety in prison, and provide him with appropriate medical care,” the ECHR announced.

The Court also clarifi ed that interim measures are urgent measures which, according to the Court’s well-established practice, apply only where there is an imminent risk of irreparable harm.

“The applicant, Mikheil Saakashvili, is a Ukrainian national… who has been serving a sentence since 1 October 2021, following convictions for a number of crimes committed while in offi ce. He considers the prosecutions to be “politically motivated persecution” and has been on hunger strike as a result since, a total of 41 days at the time of the current request.

“He has twice been examined by a panel of doctors, who have confi rmed, among other things, that he is on hunger strike, taking only liquids and vitamins, and that he has lost 10% of his body mass, although there has been no serious deterioration in his health.

“Mr. Saakashvili went to the courts, seeking his transfer to a civilian hospital, but the request was denied. "Mr. Saakashvili asserted that the authorities had failed to hand over his medical fi le, that the prison hospital was not properly equipped to meet his needs, and that his safety could not be guaranteed there. He thus requested, relying on Articles 2 (right to life) and 3 (prohibition of inhuman and degrading treatment) that he be transferred to a multispecialty civilian hospital, as recommended by the medical panel and the Public Defenders of Georgia and Ukraine. The application was lodged with the European Court on 10 November 2021.

“On 10 November 2021 the Court decided to indicate to the Government of Georgia, under Rule 39 of the Rules of Court, to inform the Court about the applicant’s current state of health, to ensure his safety in prison, and to provide him with appropriate medical care for the post-hunger-strike recovery period. A treatment plan for the applicant’s recovery should also be drawn up. At the same time, the Court urged the applicant to call off his hunger strike. It also proposed that the parties make submissions in two weeks’ time (by 24 November 2021) concerning these interim measures.

“The Court also decided to grant the case priority under Rule 41,” the ECHR stated.

On November 12, Member of the European Parliament Anna Fotyga (Poland), fl ew to Georgia with the intention of meeting Saakashvili in prison. She was denied entrance. Saakashvili responded via Facebook. "Fotyga fi ghts ardently for Georgia and is against Putin - it is not surprising she was not allowed to see me, a personal prisoner of Putin,” he wrote, thanking the MEP for her solidarity.

“During the last meeting in Strasbourg in September, Anna Fotyga asked me if I thought I would be a victim of torture after returning to Georgia. I replied that I did not think so.

“Anna Fotyga was the Minister of Foreign Affairs when Lech Kaczynski came to save Georgia, at risk to his own life. Fotyga is a noble and strong person who fi ghts ardently for Georgia and is against Putin. It is not surprising is that she was not allowed to see me, a personal prisoner of Putin.

“Thank you, Anna, for your humanity and solidarity. I am sure that those who did not let you in will soon not be close to the levers of power and Georgia will meet you with its old hospitality and gratitude,” he wrote.

MEP Fotyga addressed Mikheil Saakashvili following the decision of the Ministry of Justice not to allow her to see the ex-president.

“Mr. Mikheil, be strong, we are on your side,” she said.

As part of her visit, the MEP met with political party Droa leader Elene Khoshtaria, who is also on a hunger strike in the Parliament building in support of Saakashvili. "All I can do is to say encouraging words," Fotyga commented after the meeting. Mikheil Saakashvili was visited by his American lawyer John Sandweg. "It's worrying how he should feel safe here because there is no proper medical equipment. That said, he is in a great mood. You will not encounter a case like this in the US and it is not a case that is subject to criminal law. This is not an institution where he feels safe,” Sandweg said.

He also commented on Saakashvili's video footage, noting that it was “quite disturbing” how he was treated on entering the Gldani medical institution. Sandweg added that such treatment is “not appropriate.”

Mikheil Saakashvil after his transfer to Gldani Prison Hospital. Source: newsline.news

Galaktion Tabidze Jubilee Week to be Held as Part of “Tbilisi – World Book Capital”

BY KETEVAN SKHIRTLADZE

This year marks the 130th anniversary of the birth of Galaktion Tabidze, and, as part of the “Tbilisi – World Book Capital,” a celebration week is to be held to honor the fact, starting with a jubilee event on November 20, at 19:00, in Gudiashvili Square.

The moderators of the evening will be Vakhtang Javakhadze, Lasha Bakradze, Nene Kvinikadze, and Nino Kasradze, who will speak about important and unknown details of Galaktioni’s biography and will read excerpts from the poet’s work.

The stage will be lit up with illustrations created by artist Giorgi Jincharadze, inspired by archival photos of Galaktioni.

Performers of the evening: Davit Evgenidze, Erekle Deisadze, Anuka Chkheidze, Sandro Bibicha Kvachadze, Tsotne Zedginidze, Maia Djabua, Tbilisi Women’s Choir led by Omar Burduli. Director: Davit Sakvarelidze.

Galaktion Tabidze (November 17, 1892 – March 17, 1959), was an infl uential 20th century Georgian poet. He survived Stalin’s Great Purge of the 1930s, which claimed the lives of many of his fellow writers, friends and relatives, but came under heavy pressure from the Soviet authorities. Those years plunged him into depression and alcoholism. He was placed in a psychiatric hospital in Tbilisi, where he committed suicide. He was named “The King of Poets” and even today inspires generations of poets and is well-loved by the public in Georgia.

“A Threat to Belarus’ Sovereignty" - Pavel Latushka on the Union State, Migrants, and the Putin & Lukashenko Paradigm

INTERVIEW BY VAZHA TAVBERIDZE

Last week we witnessed yet another Lukashenko maneuver: the Belarus strongman smuggled thousands of illegal migrants across Belarus to the PolishLithuanian border in a self-styled response to EU sanctions.

The infl ux of migrants, which Brussels has dubbed a "hybrid attack" and "gangster tactic" on the EU, exacerbates internal tensions in the EU, which no doubt both Lukashenko and his main ally Putin are happy to achieve, as the West has less time to respond to the dire situation in Belarus itself.

What should the West's answer be? What is the strategy of the Belarusian opposition? What are the Belarusians going to do if Putin decides to complete the "Union State" project with Belarus? GISP spoke to one of the opposition leaders and former Belarusian Minister of Culture, Pavel Latushka.

THE ILLEGAL MIGRANTS ISSUE – LUKASHENKO AND THE KREMLIN HAVE BEEN USING IT TO CREATE TURMOIL IN BELARUS’ NEIGHBORHOOD. WHAT SHOULD THE WEST’S RESPONSE BE?

As a former minister of culture, I realize that the humanitarian angle is of utmost importance here – saving peoples’ lives should be the top priority. Lukashenko is using these people as instruments of war against the European Union. As a diplomat, I realize how important it is to have one’s borders secured; as a politician, I cannot understand why the EU isn’t using the leverages at its disposal – the rule of law, fi rst and foremost. If we are dealing with an organized crime group here, and everybody can see that it’s a special operation orchestrated by Lukashenko and his cronies to cause turmoil, then why is there no question about criminal responsibility for Lukashenko? Why aren’t there any suits against him related to the deaths of these migrants? Start an international court trial and summon Lukashenko there to argue his defense- that would be the adequate step. And then there is the economic leverage – sanctions tailored to the situation, where Lukashenko has to pay for every migrant. He is earning money on them today, so make him pay for it, so that he starts thinking whether it’s worth it.

Pavel Latushka. Source: NN.BY, Nadzeya Buzhan

WHILE THE OPPOSITION SHOWS NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN, IT’S ALSO SAFE TO SAY THAT LUKASHENKO ISN’T GOING TO HAND OVER THE REINS OF RULE VOLUNTARILY ANYTIME SOON. WHAT’S THE CURRENT STALEMATE AND WHOSE SIDE IS TIME ON?

Even Russian opinion polls show that Belarussians don’t trust Lukashenko, and that the majority of them don’t want him to retain the post of President. And Lukashenko himself looks at Belarussians as ungrateful traitors and enemies who betrayed him. Like every other dictator, he needs an “enemy” to fi ght. His fi rst enemy is the Belarussians themselves, the second is the West, and the third enemy, as much as he doesn’t want to admit that, is Russia.

Today, the Belarusians, despite of their disdain towards Lukashenko, aren’t allowed to express their position. He amended the constitution in a way that even a word written in social media against his regime is tantamount to a crime that can send you to prison for a minimum of 30 days. Fear has become his main weapon to keep the people silent. But this can’t go on forever – the situation is slowly but surely nearing boiling point. He thinks he can prevent it if he puts everyone who wants to speak out in prison and keeps the rest living in terror. He’s building an upgraded version of North Korea. This is impossible for several reasons: one, we live in Europe; two, we live in an age of technology and information; third, Belarusians are smart and they’ve shown that they want freedom and that they’ll fi ght for it. For these reasons, this scenario won’t be turned into a reality, even though, tactics-wise, Lukashenko might look at his situation and think that it’s in his favor.

BELARUSIANS TRIED TO FIGHT FOR THEIR FREEDOM A YEAR AGO USING PUBLIC PROTESTS, BUT IT WASN’T ENOUGH. WHAT SHOULD BE DONE DIFFERENTLY IF ANOTHER WAVE OF PUBLIC PROTESTS BEGINS?

For that, we need a strategy on both the domestic and international front. There are several elements to it:

We need to achieve non-recognition of Lukashenko as a president. Many countries in the world have stated that they don’t recognize the elections as legitimate, but that’s different to not recognizing him as president or recognizing his government. The European Parliament has just done that, but we need the same to happen at the national government level too.

The next step would be holding him responsible for the crimes he has committed through the force of international law, including seizing a plane with international passengers, as well as waging an illegal “migrant war” against neighboring countries, not to mention his crimes against his own people. He is a leader of a crime gang that operates at a governmental level. The legal leverage would be charging him for those crimes and holding him responsible. Work is already being done to create something along the lines of an International Criminal Court case on Belarus.

The third element is sanctions, and they can only be effective when they are timely and hard-hitting. If you drag your feet with sanctions, that gives him time to prepare for them.

On the domestic front, we should be preparing for countrywide, well organized strikes. It should be a unifi ed front of all democratic forces who will call on all Belarusians to go on strike. One of the triggers for that could be the referendum that Lukashenko is planning to conduct in February next year, to basically give himself immunity guaranteed by the constitution.

LET’S ASSUME YOU ACHIEVE SOME OF YOUR OBJECTIVES. WOULDN’T THE INCREASED INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION OF BELARUS MAKE IT EVEN EASIER FOR RUSSIA TO FORCE LUKASHENKO TO ACCEPT RUSSIAN CONDITIONS AND SOLUTIONS IN BILATERAL RELATIONS?

First off, I must underline that the only suitable scenario for deposing the current regime in Belarus lies in the hands of the Belarusians themselves. It is something Belarusians themselves must do – that’s the cornerstone of our strategy. Then there is another scenario, that we would rather not see occur, but it may happen – that’s the scenario you described. One option there would be Putin singlehandedly deciding that the time has come to remove Lukashenko and impose a new “ruler” according to the Kremlin interests, and another – leaving Lukashenko in place, turning him into a fully controlled puppet. And while the second scenario is undesirable, the third one is outright unacceptable. As I said, there is no scenario that would turn Belarus into a North Korea for the long term. Let’s also discuss the oft-speculated scenario of Putin ordering Russian military forces to enter Belarus – I don’t think such a scenario is realistic. I don’t believe Putin will command Russian soldiers to shoot at Belarusians. That would be the last day in the post of president for President Putin, because it would be impossible to explain to a Russian why they were shooting at Belarusians.

WHY ARE YOU SO CERTAIN THAT ANY SHOOTING WOULD BE NECESSARY IN THE FIRST PLACE?

Because Belarusians will take to the streets and they’ll want to make their own decision as to how the country should be governed. If the Kremlin wants to take away that decision from the Belarusians, they’ll have to do it by brute force. I don’t think that’s in the Kremlin’s interests, considering there is also another option available: to control whoever replaces Lukashenko. He is too toxic and high-maintenance for Russia. At this point, today, Russia isn’t ready to incorporate Belarus, but it will be ready to do it at every appropriate chance and in all likelihood, will attempt to do it in a few years. The vast majority of Belarusians don’t want to become a part of Russia, even Russian polls show that, but I’m afraid that if we play the waiting game, hoping that the problems will solve themselves, then that’s just not going to happen. I’m against such a scenario, because that means Belarus only existing on a map and having a fl ag in the United Nations. Russia doesn’t want Belarus to enjoy the choice of determining their own development – it follows the power doctrines of the last century. Where you have to make an ideological choice, and you’ve got to have an enemy.

TOGETHER WITH THE REST OF THE 28 “INTEGRATION PROGRAMS”, HOW BIG OF A STEP IS IT TOWARDS THE UNIFIED STATE THAT MOSCOW IS PUSHING FOR?

I don’t think anybody could answer that question, because most of these documents are classifi ed and nobody has seen their contents, what Lukashenko and the President of the Russian Federation agreed upon. What we are witnessing is that the man who usurped the rule in our country, has now taken it upon himself to decide its eventual fate as a sovereign state. The idea of a Union State irritates most Belarusians. This should be a transparent matter, and the Belarusian people themselves should be deciding whether they want it or not. It cannot be imposed from above or externally. And if Lukashenko and the Kremlin decide to go that route, then the new government of Belarus will have to annul any agreement reached that way. We consider this a real threat to Belarus’ sovereignty. If the Kremlin want to repeat the scenarios of Georgia and Ukraine in Belarus, that would be yet another colossal mistake for the Russian foreign policy – subjugating a nation, an independent state, through force. Turning Belarusians and Russians into enemies might satisfy somebody’s ambitions in the short term, but it is not a viable long-term strategy in the 21st century.

COULD A NEW REGIME IN MINSK BE MORE PLIABLE AND AGREEABLE TOWARDS THE KREMLIN’S INSISTENCE ON DEEPER INTEGRATION?

I would have to upset the analysts in Moscow, but this scenario is not realistic. And that’s partly due to Lukashenko’s presence: as long as he’s here, he won’t allow the creation of any structure that will be on more amiable terms with the Kremlin than he is himself. That would be an existential threat for him. That means that either Moscow is stuck with Lukashenko, or they will have to fi nd an agreement with the new democratic opposition – but Belarus’ sovereignty won’t be a bargaining chip in any such negotiations, I can assure you of that. Any negotiations would have to be on equal terms.

WHAT MAKES YOU THINK THAT IT IS IN RUSSIA’S INTERESTS TO TALK TO BELARUS AS TO AN EQUAL PARTNER, INSTEAD OF TURNING IT INTO A FULLYFLEDGED SATELLITE? WHY WOULD THE KREMLIN SETTLE FOR LESS WHEN THEY THINK THEY CAN GET MORE?

Is it a pragmatic choice to support a dictator and burn bridges to the Belarusian nation, to its people? No. Is it a moral choice? No. Is it a choice based on values? Not really. I think as time passes, this will become more and more evident to Russians themselves. What we can do is to try and expedite that process, this is in our hands. And Belarusians wanted that, but it didn’t happen and Russia played a key role in it. Now they’ll have to put up with Lukashenko, from whom they won’t get any benefi ts anyway. He dislikes the Russian leadership, he loathed Medvedev and isn’t too fond of Putin either. I am sure Lavrov himself sees Lukashenko as a complete idiot, but he is a diplomat and he has to enact the Kremlin foreign policy. Lukashenko can’t be trusted – he only plays with Putin because he needs to survive. How long Putin is prepared to take it remains to be seen.