Now or Never: Need to Prioritize Orbital Sustainability

As new avenues open up for the space sector, leading to exponential increase in the demand for satellite data, mounting orbital debris poses a dire threat that needs to be timely addressed. By Shreyas Mirji

The space sector is at the precipice of change comparable to the dot-com boom in the late 90s. At this juncture, the path to progress that it takes will have unprecedented impact on the future of humankind.

With the democratisation of space and increased satellite applications, the sector has transformed from being the least contested domain to the most. It is now seen as a great enabler and a tool for global influence, and diplomacy. As a result, most spacefaring nations regard space as their fourth operational domain.

The near-Earth environment is undergoing massive transformation, from being exploited by a selected few to becoming a fundamental part of the global critical infrastructure. Once considered exotic, space-based technology is now the backbone of the global economy, from banking to communications to navigation. The list goes on.

State of the Near-Earth Environment

The start of the space race marked the beginning of unsustainable exploitation of outer space and has since led to the generation of approximately 10,400 tonnes of objects in Earth’s orbit. Adding to the problem, with the miniaturisation of electronics and lower cost of access to space, the population of active satellites has grown 2.5 times since 2019. It is expected to reach close to 57,000 by the end of 2030.

Furthermore, with an increase in demand for microgravity environments from research and development to healthcare to name a few applications, a sustained human presence in orbit is expected. Keeping the demand in mind, at least four human-rated Low Earth Orbit (LEO) outposts are expected within the next decade.

There are currently close to 1.36 million objects in orbit, of which only 32,170 objects are tracked. The risk associated with objects in space lies with their very high kinetic energy. Objects in LEO are travelling at an average speed of 7.8 km/s. At such velocity, debris of size one cm can pass through a satellite, incapacitating it. Such collisions release energy equivalent to that of a hand grenade.

One of the first satellites launched by the United States, Vanguard-1, along with its upper core stage, still circles the Earth’s orbit. It is the oldest space debris and is expected to stay there for another 260 years. Without external influence and the absence of atmospheric drag, objects at higher altitudes tend to stay there for eternity.

The hazard posed by orbital debris is not limited to outer space; it also affects life on Earth. Debris routinely falls back to Earth. On an average, 100 metric tonnes of debris fall

back to Earth each year, and depending on the solar activity, it averages one object a day.

There have been few recorded instances where falling space debris has directly impacted human life. With increased launches, large debris, such as upper stages of rockets falling on habitable areas is on the rise. Aside from injuries to humans on the ground, small debris has stuck to planes, causing cracks in the cockpit windshield and damage to the radar dome.

Despite the vastness of space, only certain regions of orbits around Earth are conducive to space-based applications that make life easier for humans, and these orbits are becoming increasingly contested. As a result, there is an imperative for a better understanding of the orbital environment.

The first step towards solving the problem of space debris and working towards a sustainable space is to have the ability to accurately detect, track, and predict the positions of these objects in orbit.

Need for evolution

The 18th Space Defense Squadron (SDS) of the United States Space Force has been spearheading efforts in building a comprehensive understanding of the near-Earth environment. The role of the 18th SDS is to monitor the global debris population and orbital health.

The United States recognizes that space debris presents a significant threat not only to them but to the entire world. Therefore, as an act of service, the 18th SDS provides Space Situational Awareness (SSA) data and associated services in kind to satellite operators. In addition, independent efforts to build SSA capability is underway in countries such as the United Kingdom, Australia, Russia, and India.

The 18th SDS currently tracks objects larger than 10 cm around Earth’s orbit. However, the objects tracked by the 18th SDS are only the tip of the iceberg — the current resolution capability of the space surveillance systems leaves 96 percent of the approximately 1 million lethal space objects untracked. Even for the tracked 4 percent, we do not have a complete understanding.

In addition to addressing

the accuracy of the datasets, there is also the need to track the untracked objects that vary from 1-10 cm in size. These tiny but lethal objects can incapacitate the satellites that come in their way. Thus, the derived SSA is woefully inadequate, putting the $386 billion space economy at risk and costing spacecraft operators.

Surveillance and tracking of space objects emerged as a secondary use-case from ground-based systems used to monitor Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) warning systems during the Cold War era. As the need arose, certain dedicated systems came into place for SSA. However, most of the systems that currently operate are used for more than one use case. Often the priority is set based on what objects need to be tracked. This has resulted in SSA data being as old as 72 hours.

Thus, it has become necessary to have dedicated systems for SSA as we move towards putting more assets in space. Recognizing this problem, both sovereign governments and private entities are now working towards establishing dedicated SSA systems to monitor and protect assets in space.

India’s Role

Until recently, across the world, the space industry was primarily driven by the state and its agencies, with private enterprises largely playing the role of subcontractors/vendors. In the west, although the sector had been privatised a long time ago, the private industry was constrained by its ability to bear the cost of such enterprises. access to space and realising the product, space-based applications are becoming economically viable.

The Indian space ecosystem, which until recently was led by the state and accounted for 2.6% of the global space economy, is now seeking to capture 8% of the global space market.

With the recent opening up of the space sector in India to private enterprises, there are now over 350 space technology companies including at least 100 space start-ups. These companies are working on everything from satellite manufacturing to launch vehicles to satellite-based applications.

As a space-faring nation in the 21st century, India is taking a proactive stance when it comes to space situational awareness and has established Project Netra, a ground-based early warning system for protecting Indian satellites from debris.

In July 2022, India took a step further on SSA by announcing the establishment of the ISRO System for Safe and Sustainable Operation (IS4OM), keeping long-term sustainability in mind. This facility will support the complete spectrum, right from station keeping of Indian assets, to carrying out collision avoidance manoeuvres, to other intensified activities.

On the private side, Digantara is building a one-stop platform to address the challenges of space operations and space traffic management. This platform will serve as an infrastructure layer on which future missions can be designed, built, and operated.

We have already witnessed the first fuel station in space and the first commercial tourists to LEO. By 2030, we will see at least four crewed space stations and over 57,000 satellites in LEO. With recent privatisation, the Indian space ecosystem is growing at an unprecedented speed.

By 2025, the upstream market—satellite manufacturing and launch services is expected to reach $4.25B. The path to progress that the industry takes will set precedence for the future of orbital. India has the golden opportunity to strategically position itself as a sustainable state by fostering sustainability across the space value chain.

The first step towards solving the problem of space debris and working towards a sustainable space is to have the ability to accurately detect, track, and predict the positions of these objects in orbit

Shreyas Mirji heads Business and Strategy for Digantara, a Space Situational Awareness company that is building an end to end infrastructure to address the problem of Space Operations and Space Traffic Management. He has been involved with space safety and sustainability, from product development to policy making to engineering.