Prof. Sir Martin Sweeting OBE FRS FRENG FIET FINSTP

LEADERS' OUTLOOK

ANNUAL EDITION / JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2022

SmallSats and the Democratization of Space

BY PROF. SIR MARTIN SWEETING OBE FRS FRENG FIET FINSTP

Founder & Executive Chairman of Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd., Chairman, Surrey Space Centre, Director, National Hub on Future AI and Robotics for Space

The story of growth in smallsats (small satellites), leading to the democratization of information from Space, can be split into two parts. The first part is about access to Space. Today, over 100 countries are active in Space, which means that access is no longer limited to big corporations or governments alone, but is also available to small companies, universities, and even high schools in some cases.

Additionally, tech advancements in smallsats have made it economically feasible to have more constellations in Space. It was always possible to have a constellation, but if a satellite would cost USD 1 billion, it was not possible to afford too many of them. But with satellites costing USD 10 million, it is possible to have 50-60 of them — or even thousands — in Space.

As soon as there is a constellation in Space, it becomes possible to add a third dimension to the data coming in. So, one gets the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution that allows one to monitor rapidly changing phenomena, which adds a completely different value to the dataset. The international Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC) of optical EO microsatellites ably demonstrated this new capability.

Now, the second part is about the data. In the last few years, we have witnessed the launch of many smallsats with different sensors. This has led to data proliferation, which in turn has presented the opportunity for extracting more value from Space. Ten years ago, it was only about data being sold. However, a change occurred in recent years when the value of raw data dropped to less than 10 percent, and the demand for knowledge that could be extracted from it spiked. Consequently, the business model also changed from data retailing to knowledge services.

Changing dynamics A decade ago, the Earth Observation (EO) market had very few organizations with the tools to calibrate and process the data that was coming in. It was a small club. But as soon as data became widely available, several small companies came into play as they could set up data processing facilities because of low capital investment. This completely changed the game in the Space sector. And now new companies are popping up almost every week, taking essentially the same raw data or the same data streams and processing them to provide different apps. We thus have a whole heap of apps, which earlier we didn’t think we would want but which we now find valuable.

Since more and more people/companies have joined this trend, we see more innovative ideas being generated. There is literally a virtual vortex of data analytics. Clearly, analytics providers are using the satellite data and only a few of them have invested in satellites. The satellite manufacturing market is very tight and the profit margins are very small compared to the downstream applications segment where the margins are very high. This is why we have started to see more vertically integrated companies where the satellite manufacturer has emphasized involvement in downstream applications as they generate revenues that can fund the capital infrastructure. These companies are either developing their own applications, capabilities, or partnering/merging with other players to get a better share of the market.

Significance of R&D The trend of ‘Everything-as-a-service’ is not limited to EO. It is predicted to also pick up in the field of science where ‘Science-as-a-Service’ is not a distant reality. Take, for example, communications, where what matters is the service that is provided. Nobody cares whether it comes from a satellite or a piece of fiber. However, the fiber guys and satellite manufacturers still have to provide technical capability and capacity, and they need to make enough money to be able to do that. Satellite manufacturers still have to invest in Research and Development (R&D) to be able to create capabilities for the new services that are yet to come. So, unless there is a circle of money that goes back to R&D, the applications guys would start to run out of steam. They would want to do a lot of new things, but the satellites would not be capable of doing them.

R&D are always profitable in the long term, and therefore research institutions run by governments and defense organizations hold great significance in the Space sector. Governments and their R&D institutions could also be the first customers, even as they support technology breakthroughs.

The new HydroGNSS project with European Space Agency (ESA) is a good example of long-term R&D, from technical feasibility experiments starting on a small satellite in 1998 through increasingly complex demonstrations on a number of microsatellite missions through to the first operational small satellite commencing in 2022! HydroGNSS will operate as a bistatic radar exploiting the reflections of the GNSS signals from the surface of the Earth and by analyzing the returns, deriving information on moisture content, and biomass of the Earth’s surface contributing to the better understanding of climate change.

Access to the Moon For the first time, there is a very high probability of prolonged human habitation on the Moon in the next few years. The US and China have programs in place already and others have begun to talk about it as well. A human revisit on the Moon is expected within a few years and will be followed by the development of a habitat there. Several institutional and private players would want to have landers and rovers on the moon, and this provides an new opportunity for the private sector to provide infrastructure services of communications and navigation around the Moon. The Lunar Pathfinder project, with ESA and NASA as anchor customers, is the forerunner of the planned ‘Moonlite’ constellation around the Moon.

Space robotics will change quite dramatically the nature of the Space industry and business during this decade: first focusing on the active removal of Space debris and in-orbit servicing of satellites, and then in-orbit assembly of satellites and large Space structures, and then leading on to in-orbit manufacturing of Space systems. Indeed, the prolonged human habitation on the Moon (and later Mars) will need the preparation of substantial habitats and this will rely on Space robotics.

In the last few years, we have witnessed the launch of lots of small satellites with different sensors. This has led to data proliferation, which in turn has presented the opportunity for extracting more value from Space.

LEADERS' OUTLOOK

ANNUAL EDITION / JANUARY-FEBRUARY 2022