SpaceSustainabilityasa BusinessandEconomic Imperative

SpaceSustainabilityas aBusinessand EconomicImperative

While space debris and its growing threat to space safety is the most urgent aspect of space sustainability, there are other aspects that we should think about in economic terms as much as any other. Considering space sustainability within every aspect of what countries and companies undertake in space is essential for preserving future opportunities in space. By Kevin M. O’Connell

Space sustainability is the hot topic of the day. Long the emphasis of the technical space community, space debris and space sustainability are in the news today because of much more public attention, whether in the fictionalized accounts of “Nope” and “Don’t Look Up!” or, sadly, the unprecedented pieces of large space debris that recently landed in Australia and Malaysia, threatening lives and property. While space clutter is mostly the result of sustained, positive space activities since 1957, security activities like Russia’s 2021 anti-satellite test add to the problem exponentially, either by creating more debris (1500 new pieces in that case) or by complicating decisions by space operators needing to stay out of harm’s way. China’s cavalier approach to Long March re-entries doesn’t help, either.

There are many reasons to work toward improved space sustainability: social, political, and international, to name a few. Readers are well aware of the incredible benefits that we derive from space here on Earth, from communications and navigation to the unique understanding that satellite imagery and geospatial information provide across multiple economic sectors. Newer mission areas like in-orbit manufacturing and space medicine will open up entirely new innovations in a permanent Moon presence and continued space exploration but with many returns to our lives here on Earth.

All of these benefits are at risk without dedicated international attention on space sustainability, a term that lacks commonly accepted definitions and metrics. While space debris and its growing threat to space safety is the most urgent aspect, there are other aspects that we should think about in economic terms as much as any other. Considering space sustainability within every aspect of what countries and companies undertake in space is essential for preserving future opportunities in space.

Mitigating space debris: what’s in the toolkit? Current geopolitical tensions limit the kinds of progress we can expect on this issue at the United Nations, but that does not mean that we cannot make progress. Increased public attention is a good thing. Aside from that there are four broad categories of tools and activities, which can be brought to bear immediately to improve space safety and sustainability:

In the past decades, with increasing space activities, a new and unexpected hazard has started to emerge: space debris

Evolution of the launch traffic near LEOIADC per mission type (left) and mass category (right)

Source: European Space Agency

 Avoiding the creation of new space debris:This is by far the simplest and least costly measure that we can take.

Future space activities can take advantage of cutting-edge technical developments from protective mesh to propulsion (for maneuverability); the Space

Sustainability Rating (SSR) tool developed by a consortium (ESA, MIT, UT/Austin, Bryce-

Tech) and hosted at EPFL in

Switzerland allows operators to

evaluate their collision avoidance process, their trackability, and their data sharing practices, among others.  Improving space situational awareness: While readers do understand the benefits of space, they might be surprised to learn how limited our ability is to detect and track things in space, and to provide very accurate, precise, and timely warnings to space operators.

Exquisite scientific and national

security sensors can be trained on specific space objects in a crisis, but those resources are limited and could never be expected to cover the millions of pieces of space debris that threaten operations. The good news, as discussed below, is that a vibrant commercial ecosystem is stepping up to play a major role, if not the major role in this area.  Establishing space traffic coordination and management

Source: European Space Agency

guidelines: Just as we would have difficulty navigating our roads without coordination and management guidelines, we urgently need guidelines for operating in space. These terms are often politicized, but really refer to a set of simple “rules of the road” that operators should follow when they are at risk of collision with other active space objects or debris. International tensions are unlikely to generate near-term diplomatic progress, so the private sector is likely to generate practical ideas and best practices that should ultimately inform international policy and law.  Active debris removal: The

European Space Agency (ESA) and Japan have funded active debris removal missions, with strong indications that others may follow. While there remain both technical proofs of concept for the best ways to accomplish this (clamps, magnets, nets, harpoons) and legal/policy challenges (who can move or capture debris? on what authority?) this is an important enough tool that it is attracting an increased amount of attention. Shifting government and private sector roles While we still often think about space activities as government run, the reality is that the private sector is the dominant player in the USD 469 billion global space economy (Space Foundation, 2022). Governments continue to set national priorities and strategies and dedicate public funds to space missions, but an energized private sector comprising entrepreneurs, private finance and insurance organizations, and others, is driving innovation and diversity in ways never seen before. While key aspects of space sustainability will be driven by governments, expect the private sector to play an important role as well.

Governments, driven by increased scientific and public attention to these issues, are spurred to action. The Biden Administration extended the principles of Space Policy Directive-3 (2018), for example, within the United States Space Priorities Framework (2021); the US Office of Science and Technology Policy recently published a National Orbital Debris Implementation plan. The European Commission released a report earlier this year outlining the European Union’s approach to space traffic management, including plans to increase their collective ability to track space objects as well as help develop international regulations for safe and responsible operations in space. Japan’s Cabinet Office recently proposed a set of efforts to help establish international orbital rules, including planning, space operations, design requirements, and rules for de-orbiting.

Governments have related authorization and supervision responsibilities under their Outer Space Treaty (1967) obligations as well as legal and regulatory levers in managing their space industry. The cry for increased attention to space sustainability is often partnered with a call for more regulation, but regulatory measures must be datadriven and draw upon best practices and proactive government-industry dialogue. Good intentions alone should never be the basis for regulation, as they often have unintended consequences that could severely harm space industry sectors and many future space activities.

The private sector is also responding. The good news is that a robust, privately funded ecosystem of companies has emerged rapidly, partly encouraged by government efforts, but also in anticipation of increased need and opportunity. This ecosystem not only includes unique data providers (for example, telescopes, radar, space based-optical, other) but data architectures that incorporate analytic and visualization tools fueled by literally trillions of dollars of private investment in adjacent applications and markets. While readers are excited about the uniqueness of space, in

Private companies in space sustainability*

Company

Astroscale NorthStar Earth & Space High Earth Orbit Robotics LeoLabs Digantara SpaceAble SCOUT Odin Space Vyoma Privateer

*Not an exhaustive list

Country

Japan Canada Australia US India France US UK Germany US

this sense space observation and assessment, and therefore space sustainability, can quickly leverage practices from a wide range of other fields

A similarly innovative set of startups is driving the active debris removal market, mainly as a service to be provided along the path to participating in a much larger in-orbit servicing market.

Most interesting about this collection of highly innovative firms is their diversity of approach. This is one of the key benefits of private investment. While competition is ultimately inevitable in this space market segment, the reality is that the challenges are so great that diversity serves as a strength as we strive, initially, to improve space safety; it will then enable the creation of a much wider set of commercial services that will form the foundation for additional growth expected in the space economy.

Space operators have an important stake here as well. Notions that operators “don’t give a damn” about space sustainability are absurd, given plans to refresh space assets, innovate, and ultimately drive revenue and profit. Controlling costs is always a target for space operators, so they also have an interest in understanding where collisions might happen in space and how specific objects behave to avoid them. Remember that fuel is gold in space, so any need to maneuver comes at a steep operational and mission cost. Expect them to quickly adopt new technologies that increase safety and sustainability and to leverage industry-driven best practices as government and academic research efforts continue.

Toward space sustainability Growing concerns about space sustainability are both welcome and warranted. Virtually all the benefits we are experiencing from space commercialization are at risk unless we pay attention to this now. While many are rightly worried about the so-called Kessler Effect — a cascading set of collisions within an orbital regime that could render it useless forever — we should be equally concerned about the growth of debris that dramatically raises the costs of launching to and operating in space, potentially limiting future space pursuits.

What we’ve seen in the first six-and-one-half decades is nothing compared to what’s planned over the next decade. While space enthusiasts often focus on the mission or the technology, space is increasingly about economic development, talent generation, and innovation. Virtually every country wants to participate in the space economy, knowing that they could be left behind if they do not. Their interest in space sustainability is about preserving access and opportunity for the future.

Space debris and space sustainability, therefore, are important economic aspects that we need to consider of our space activities. While costs will be borne both by taxpayers and by entrepreneurs, this is not a place to be penny wise and pound foolish. The attention and resources we pay to this now across all space activities will surely result in lesser costs — both actual and overall — of space activities in the future. Our rightly ambitious expectations from the space economy are too important to view space in the same old-fashioned way.

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Kevin M. O’Connell

Founder and CEO at Space Economy Rising, and former Director, Office of Space Commerce, US Department of Commerce. He can be reached at kmospace@gmail.com