The Global Drought Scenario and Vulnerability Assessment

With drought conditions affected nearly a quarter of the world, especially the third world countries, focus needs to be shifted to creating more awareness with the help of the multifaceted geospatial technologies we have at our discourse. Disaster management is due course, and the time is only limited.

By Prof. T.P. Singh

Drought is a natural phenomenon and creeping disasters have significant effects on the environment, agriculture, and human populations. It has increased in frequency and severity over the past few years as a result of climate change, making it a significant worldwide issue that needs attention and action.

According to the United Nations, this creeping disaster affects more people than any other natural disaster, with up to 1.5 billion people around the world affected by drought conditions. Climate change, which is changing weather patterns and increasing the frequency and severity of droughts in many parts of the world, is one of the main causes of drought. Moreover, human actions like deforestation, changes in land use, and excessive water consumption can make drought conditions worse. It affects agriculture, resulting in lower crop yields, food shortages, higher food costs, and starvation. In areas where water is scarce, it can also result in water shortages and disputes over water supplies.

Mega droughts have occurred recently all across the planet, particularly in central and western India especially the Marathwada region of Maharashtra state, South Africa, California in the USA, and Australia. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, severe to exceptional drought conditions affected over 70% of the Western United States in 2021. This has resulted in a lack of water, lower crop yields, and a higher danger of wildfires. Since 2018, there has been a drought in Southern Africa, which has caused crop failures, food scarcity, and an increase in migration. Prevalent drought conditions have decreased agricultural productivity and raised water stress in urban centers in regions of Asia, including India and China.

These droughts have brought to light the need for improved drought management strategies. Governments and non-governmental organizations from all over the world are tackling the problem of drought through several measures, including water conservation and wise water management, better land use and land cover practices, and the development of drought-resistant crops.

According to predictions made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), droughts will increase in frequency and severity throughout much of the world as a result of climate change, especially in areas like the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of South America. Long-lasting drought conditions in Australia have lowered crop yields, increased pressure on water resources in metropolitan areas, and caused water shortages.

Economic Impact

Long term prevailing drought condition has a considerable economic impact, especially in areas where agriculture accounts for a large portion of Gross Development Product (GDP), especially in South and Southeast Asia, East Asia, Part of Africa and South America, Drought-related decreased agricultural yields can result in reduced crop based earnings, higher food costs, and more food imports, all of which can be detrimental to the economy as a whole. It is crucial to remember that the severity of the drought, the types of crops damaged, and the degree of economic diversification in the affected area can all have a significant impact on how the economy is affected.

In some cases, drought can also create chances for innovation and expansion in industries like water management and the creation of drought-resistant crops. Longterm economic repercussions of droughts include decreased property values and reduced tourism revenue in drought-affected areas which we have seen in South Africa.

The United States suffered an estimated $30 billion in losses from agriculture alone as a result of the 2012 drought. however, a drought that affected California from 2011 to 2017 cost the state’s farmers an estimated $3.8 billion in losses, which decreased the state’s GDP. India experienced a drought in 2015–16 that impacted 330 million people and resulted in an estimated $10 billion in economic losses. It was calculated that Australia’s Millennium Drought, which ran from 1997 to 2010, cost the country’s economy $13 billion annually.

In general, dealing with the economic effects of drought necessitates a multifaceted strategy, involving investments in agriculture that is resistant to drought, better water management techniques, and laws that encourage economic diversity and resilience. By proactively addressing the effects of drought, economies may more effectively endure the difficulties presented by this natural occurrence and guarantee longterm growth and prosperity.

Food security

Crop productivity is constrained by an increase in climate extreme events in the past decade, especially drought conditions in many parts of the world more specifically in the global south. Moreover, crop productivity is restricted in many regions by this phenomenon. Which vindicates its impact on highly vulnerable south east Asia and part of Europe’s food security. A growing body of evidence indicates that agriculture across a variety of economies, crops, and farming systems is already being significantly impacted by climate change in the form of extreme occurrences and changes in weather patterns. People in these areas have an unsettling side effect of increased disease risk due to rising daytime temperatures and reduce night temperatures.

Current predictive technologies can assist with contingency planning in areas that are very susceptible to drought and create higher yields of crops that are drought resistant, especially in eastern and central India and, most importantly Southeast Asia and south Europe However, for this to be realized, a substantial investment will be needed to create an accurate real-time drought prediction model.

Geospatial and Drought

By delivering precise and timely information regarding water availability, soil moisture levels, and crop health, geospatial technology can significantly contribute to reducing the effects of drought. The ability of geospatial tech- nology to gather, analyze, and interpret data from a variety of sources, such as satellite imaging, ground-based sensors, and weather stations, is one of its key advantages. Researchers and decision-makers will then be able to better comprehend the prevalence and severity of drought conditions in various places thanks to the utilization of this data to produce detailed maps and models of the earth’s surface.

With the help of technology, farmers and other stakeholders may develop tools and applications that will aid in irrigation planning, crop management, and water conservation. For instance, based on local weather patterns and soil moisture levels, farmers can utilize geospatial data to predict the best time to plant and schedule irrigation for their crops and recognize when their land is stressed.

Drought Prediction

Owing to its dependence on a variety of variables, such as weather patterns, soil moisture, and water availability, complex nature can be challenging to anticipate. Our capacity to antic- ipate and respond to drought conditions may be enhanced by improvements in weather forecasting models and the addition of local hydro-meteorological conditions.

Moreover, improvements in remote sensing technology, such as ground-based sensors and satellite imaging with high temporal and spatial resolution and the inclusion of Artificial intelligence, have made it possible to track and forecast drought conditions in real-time. Scientists across the globe are working to incorporate meteorological, Biophysical, and climate indices to provide solutions.

Ultimately, the scientific community and decision-makers will be able to manage and respond to droughts more effectively thanks to global and regional prediction systems, which will help to attain food security on a worldwide scale.