Edge of the Precipice Lack of Concrete Climate Mitigation Risks Sustainable Development

In the aftermath of the damning IPCC assessment report, it becomes evidently clear that curtailing climate change is the biggest challenge for all realizing all sustainability parameters, and ensuring a renewable transition.

By Arup Dasgupta

Profligate use of Earth’s limited resources has shown that unlimited and untrammeled development is not an option if the Earth has to survive as a livable planet. The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development in 2012 agreed to a set of seventeen sustainable development goals, adopted in 2015 by the UN.

These goals would give the earth a chance to revive and achieve a state of environmental balance and help in achieving an equitable global socio-economic development by 2030.

One of the fallouts of the development route followed by many countries has resulted in the steady warming of the earth, causing the climate to change. The World Meteorological Organization, a body affiliated with the UN marked climate change as an effect of anthropogenic activity. It established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC in 1988. IPCC continues to monitor the effects of climate change, builds possible future scenarios as the climate warms, and suggests mitigation measures.

Climate change and sustainable development are closely intertwined. The best approaches to counter climate change are largely those activities that may ensure overall sustainability. On the other hand, ignoring these practices will only accelerate climate change and lead to irreversible adverse impacts on civil society, the economy, and the environment.

The Implications

Two notable points emerge from the recently released sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC One, the emissions in 2019 were 12% higher than in 2010 indicating a rapid increase in Green House Gases (GHG). Second, the possibility of limiting the temperature rise to 1.5 Celsius in the period 2030-2035 to ensure a net zero emission by 2050 looks bleak. The emissions calculated from the Nationally Determined Contributions and corresponding policies show that the temperature rise will remain in the range of 2.2 to 3.5 °C in 2030.

Another study by Pennsylvania State University using a data-driven AI approach shows that a 1.5 °C rise will be achieved soon “even if the climate forcing pathway is substantially reduced in the near term” and that “a high probability of reaching the 2 °C threshold by mid-century in the High, Intermediate, and Low scenarios, suggesting that even with substantial greenhouse gas mitigation, there is still a possibility of failing to achieve the UN Paris goal of holding global warming well below the 2 °C threshold”.

Net Zero

As implied by the Nationally Declared Contributions and the implemented policies, the mean GHG loading in the atmosphere as of 2020, was 57 Giga tons of equivalent carbon dioxide per year (GtCO2-eq/ yr). There is a gap of 7 GtCO2-eq/yr already concerning the 2030 target. As of 2020, the analysis shows that the gap increases to 6-14 GtCO2-eq/ yr if the rise is to be limited to 2 °C and 16-23 GtCO2-eq/yr if the limit is set to 1.5 °C to be able to achieve the goal of 2030. In percentage terms existing policies will result in an increase of GHG by 4%. If a situation of high overshoot is accepted followed by a restriction to 2 °C or 1.5 °C, it will result in a 4% decrease in GHG but strong and immediate action from now onwards to limit the rise to 2 °C will need a reduction of 26% of GHG. The corresponding figure for 1.5 °C is 43%.

The goal of controlling global warming is to achieve net zero emissions of GHG globally. This implies that there will be some emitters and some absorbers of GHG. If the world succeeds to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C by restricting GHG load to 34 GtCO2-eq/yr the net zero CO2 will be achieved by 2050 but other GHGs will take up to another 50 years (2100) but Methane will still be present. The corresponding picture if the limit is set to 2 °C will be a maximum GHG loading of 43

GtCO2-eq/yr with net zero CO2 by 2070, other GHGs, mainly methane and nitrous oxide from agriculture, will last beyond 2100.

Pathways to Mitigation

The IPCC report also looks at ways to reach net zero. As of 2019, the major contributors to GHG were about 20 GtCO2-eq/yr by transport, industry, and buildings, another 16 GtCO2-eq/yr by energy supply, about 15 GtCO2-eq/ yr from non-CO2 sources and 5 GtCO2-eq/yr from land use change and forestry.

With the best of measures, Net Zero may be achieved by 2030 only for optimized land use changes and control of deforestation. One of the major causes of global warming, energy supply will achieve net zero only after 2050 while the other cause, transport, industry, and buildings, will most probably achieve net zero only by 2100.

Several illustrative mitigation pathways can help in achieving net zero. A less rapid introduction of mitigation measures followed by a subsequent gradual strengthening can limit the warming to only 2 °C but a high reliance on pathways such as net negative emissions, high resource efficiency, and a focus on sustainable development or renewables can help to limit warming to 1.5°C. It is important to note that the sustainable development route shows the best results in the long term with emissions falling to under 10 GtCO2-eq/ yr and emission sinks absorbing another 5 GtCO2-eq/yr.

Climate Change and SDGs

Currently, the global community recognizes the urgent need to address climate change and promote sustainable development, and these issues are a central focus of international efforts, such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement on climate change. Sustainable Development hinges on effective action to limit climate change. Climate Change in turn looks at sustainable development as the best way to achieve the 1.5-degree target for global warming.

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, is a global agreement aimed at limiting global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. The agreement sets out national targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and provides a framework for international cooperation and support to help countries achieve their targets.

The two means of climate-resilient global sustainable development are adaptation and mitigation. While mitigation is a short-term activity, adaptation is a long-term effort. The IPCC SYR AR6 report points out that, “Accelerated implementation of adaptation will improve well-being by reducing losses and damages, especially for vulnerable populations. Deep, rapid, and sustained mitigation actions would reduce future adaptation costs and losses, and damages, enhancing sustainable development co-benefits, and reducing irreversible climate changes. These near-term actions involve higher up-front investments and disruptive changes, which can be moderated by a range of enabling conditions and removal or reduction of barriers to feasibility.”

While factors like cost might tempt implementations to seek a tradeoff between mitigation and adaptation, an approach that looks at synergies between the two to advance sustainable development may yield better results in the long run. Though tradeoffs are in some cases unavoidable, an integrated approach using both synergies and tradeoffs using the SDG as a template is shown in the figure.

There have been several successes in advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) while also addressing climate change. A few examples are:

Renewable energy: The expansion of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power has been one of the major successes in the fight against climate change. In 2020, renewable energy accounted for almost 75% of new power capacity additions globally, indicating that the transition to clean energy is gaining momentum. This shift has helped to reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality, while also supporting SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy).

Sustainable agriculture: Another area where progress has been made in addressing climate change is sustainable agriculture. Farmers are adopting practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase carbon sequestration, such as no-till farming, crop rotation, and cover cropping. These practices also improve soil health, enhance biodiversity, and support SDG 2 (Zero Hunger).

Sustainable transportation: The transition to sustainable transportation is another success story. Electric vehicles are becoming more affordable and accessible, and cities are investing in public transportation systems that run on clean energy. This shift not only reduces emissions but also reduces air pollution and supports SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities).

Sustainable finance: The financial sector is also playing a crucial role in advancing the SDGs while addressing climate change. Sustainable finance is becoming mainstream, with more investors considering environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors in their investment decisions. This shift is helping to direct more capital towards sustainable projects and initiatives, supporting SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals).

These are just a few examples of how progress is being made in addressing climate change while also advancing the SDGs. It is important to note that there is still