5 minute read
A kingdom for more children: Building a more family-friendly and sustainable Thai society
Paul Lidke and Natascha Braumann
Thailand is become more like Japan every year – and that’s not necessarily a good thing. Japan is the oldest society in the world, with 29% of the population aged over 65 and 10% over 80 years (1). Last year, Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida publicly stated that his country is “on the brink of not being able to function as a society”(2) because of its demographic decline. Thailand is rapidly following in these footsteps, raising concerns for the country’s economic prospects and the future of the social care system.
Thailand is on its way to becoming a ‘super-aged society’ – a term referring to those countries where more than a fifth of the population is over 60. From now onwards, more people will be leaving the workforce than entering it. Thailand currently has a ratio of working-age people to elderly of 3.4 – meaning each older person is supported by more than 3 workers. By 2040, which is only 16 years away, it is forecast to be 1.7(3) –and it is difficult to see how Thailand will sustain its economy or support its elderly in that scenario. In 2020, the highly respected journal The Lancet estimated that Thailand’s population would continue growing to 72 million in 2028, and would then shrink by more than half, to only 35 million by the end of the century (4). Turns out, even these dire predictions were too optimistic: Thailand has already started to shrink (5)"
Total Fertility Rate Thailand since 1960
There are two key drivers to this demographic shift. Firstly, Thais are living longer than ever before – a wonderful success to be celebrated. Simultaneously, Thais are having fewer children than ever before. In the 1960s, the average woman had about 6 children – this dropped to the second lowest fertility rate in Southeast Asia at 1.16 children in 2022 (except in Yala province, where the average is 2.27 children)(6). And so Thailand’s society is ageing quickly.
POLICY OPTIONS TO SUPPORT FAMILIES
Senior cabinet ministers have taken note and have initiated policies to reverse the declining birth rates. But: which policies really work to boost fertility? What can Thailand learn from other countries who have grappled with this question? Economist Impact has analysed this in Fertility policy and practice: A toolkit for the Asia-Pacific region*. Based on evidence from around the world, this report assesses different policy interventions to create family-friendly societies that support those wanting to build a family:
Childcare: Evidence shows that both increasing childcare availability and subsidising childcare costs is associated with increases in birth rates as they help facilitate family life alongside working careers, and reduce social inequalities.
Workplace policies: Whether it’s improving maternity/paternity leave, offering flexible work like shortened or part-time hours, or introducing unpaid job-protected leave, there are many ways that a workplace can become more accommodating to families. Studies have shown that expansions of parental leave schemes have a positive (lasting and substantive) effect in increasing fertility, especially improving maternity leave.
Financial incentives: This refers to policies such as baby bonuses, tax incentives, or monthly cash transfers. Studies show that transfers given for new births, or on a regular basis throughout a child’s life, can help increase fertility rates, primarily amongst lower income households. Financial measures were recommended for countries like Thailand, where rapid urbanisation and cost of living increases are squeezing young couples’ ability to support a family.
Assisted reproduction: Not all couple who want to have a child can fulfill this wish on their own. Improved availability and accessibility of treatment options such as IVF have a positive effect on fertility rates. (7)
Clearly, there is no single magic solution to the problem of low birth rates. Building a family friendly society for Thailand will require efforts across policy areas. There is much to do!
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The Japan Times, 19 September 2022; https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/19/national/japansgraying-population/
BBC, 23 January 2023; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64373950
Vollset, S. E et al (2020). Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100. The Lancet, 396(10258).
Economist Impact: Fertility policy and practice: A toolkit for the Asia-Pacific region, 2023.
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THE ROLE OF EMPLOYERS
Fortunately, policy makers don’t have to do everything alone. Employers are critical to making a society family friendly. We want to do our part, so Merck is rolling out a fertility benefit scheme, to enable all our 66,000 employees globally to access fertility treatment if they need it to build their family. Other companies are also exploring ways to support family-building among their employees – and more of these efforts are needed.
Demographic change is a critical and urgent issue for Thailand. It can only be addressed if all stakeholders join hands and work towards a common goal: Shaping a family-friendly society in which couples feel confident to choose to have children. Where their desire for a family is not held back by the daily struggles of careers, cost-of-living or medical issues. That is the kind of society we all want to live in – for a bright and sustainable future for Thailand.
* Fertility Policy Toolkit, designed by Economist Impact and supported by Merck, brings together evidence from around the world and analyses the effectiveness of different policy measures in addressing falling fertility rates.
Fertility Counts is a global initiative with input from academia, private sector, and public sector, looking at the social, economic, and societal impacts of declining fertility rates and asking “what do we do about it?” For information, analysis, and data, visit www.fertilitycounts.com.
Contact details:
Paul Lidke
Managing Director
Merck Thailand
Natascha Braumann
Head of Fertility Policy, Government Affairs
Merck Group
