What are the interactions between Food Security and Planetary Boundaries?
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John Ingram NERC Food Security Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford
Food security… ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996)
… is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems
GECAFS Food System Concept Food System ACTIVITIES ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical Producing food: natural esources, inputs, msafe, arkets, … and and economic access to rsufficient, Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food Distribu4ng & retailing food: transport, marke.ng, adver.sing, … preferences for an active and healthy life. Consuming food: acquisi.on, prepara.on, customs, … (World Food Summit 1996) Food System OUTCOMES Contribu4ng to: • • • • • •
Social Welfare Income Employment Wealth Social capital Poli;cal capital Human capital
Food Security, i.e. stability over 4me for: FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
• Nutri.onal Value • Social Value • Food Safety
• Affordability • Alloca.on • Preference
FOOD AVAILABILITY • Produc.on • Distribu.on • Exchange
Environmental Welfare • Ecosystem stocks & flows • Ecosystem services • Planetary Boundaries
So what are the contributions of Food Systems to crossing Planetary Boundaries? Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food
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1: Agriculture as a driver of Landcover Change Extensification Pressure on many (?all) Planetary Boundaries Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
2: Agriculture as a driver of GHG emissions
Agriculture 13%
70% of arable GHG emissions connected with N fer4lizer (manufacture, use): CO2 & N2O
EarthTrends, 2008
Contribution of agriculture to crossing planetary boundaries
Campbell 2011, based on BenneK et al. (in prep.)
Contribution of capture fisheries to crossing planetary boundaries
But ‘Food Systems’ involve more than producing food …
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, markets, … Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distribu4ng & retailing food: transport, marke.ng, adver.sing, … Consuming food: acquisi.on, prepara.on, customs, …
‌ and a major proportion of GHG emissions from food systems are not from agriculture
Edwards et al., Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy, 2009
Food Processing
• • • • • •
Common characteristics of wastes from the industry Large amounts of organic materials such as proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids Large amounts of suspended solids depending on the source High biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and/or chemical oxygen demand (COD) High N concentration High suspended oil or grease contents High variations in pH
Most have higher levels than municipal sewage Kroyer, 1995
Processing Food
Water use in Canadian food processing Water use
Mm3/yr
% of all industrial use
Intake
347.2
4.7
Discharge
320.1
Consumption
27.1
5.2
Food processing plants are responsible for 4.7% of total manufacturing intake but account for 5.2% of total consumption Dupont & Renzetti, Can J Ag Econ, 1998
Packaging Food Packaging: some environmental issues • Litter • Use of raw materials for packaging • Ease and convenience of packaging disposal • Adverse consequences of careless disposal of packaging • Feasibility of recycling or reuse • Real and virtual energy content
Retailing food Refrigerant leakage accounts for 30% of supermarkets’ direct GHG emissions (Environment Investigation Agency, 2010)
Guardian 1 February 2009
But the retail industry is “tidying up� Net GHG emissions connected with premises, transport and refrigerants
The Co-operative Group Sustainability Report 2008/09
Consuming Food Breakdown (%) of energy use in commercial kitchens in the US (broadly similar in the UK) Space hea;ng Water hea;ng
19
Cooking Ven;la;on
19
Office equipment Refridgera;on
23
Other Cooling
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009
Consuming Food Environmental and operational CO2 usage (kgCO2) per meal served Facility
Environment
Operational
Combined
Primary School
0.07
0.11
0.18
Fast food outlet
0.19
0.29
0.48
Ministry of Defence: - junior ranks’ mess
0.43
0.64
1.07
- officers’ mess
0.76
1.13
1.89
Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers, 2009
Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Climate change N cycle P cycle Fresh water use Land use change Biodiversity loss Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution
Producing food
Processing & Packaging food
Distributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Example contributions of FSAs to PBs
Producing food
Processing & Packaging food
Distributing & Retailing food
Consuming food
Climate change
GHGs, albedo
Energy
Emissions from transport and cold chain
GHGs from cooking
N cycle
Eutrophicn, GHGs
Effluent
NOx from transport
Waste
P cycle
P reserves
Detergents
Waste
Fresh water use
Irrigation
Washing, Cleaning food heating, cooling
Cooking, cleaning
Land use change
Intensificn, soil degdn
Paper/card
Transport & retail infrastructure
Forest to edible oils plantation
Biodiversity loss
Deforestation, [Aluminium] soils, fishing
Invasive spp
Consumer choices
Atmos. aerosols
Dust
Shipping
Smoke from cooking
Chemical pollution
Pesticides
Transport emissions
Cooking, cleaning
Effluent
‘Food Security’ is now the BIG ISSUE
Independent; 16 October 2011: World Food Day
Food systems are already failing many: 1.02 billion people hungry in 2009
Developed 15m
“In New York City the number of people having NENA 42m trouble paying for food Asia & Pac has increased 60%, to 3.3m, since 2003 and ... a staggering one in five 642m of the city's children rely on soup kitchens - up by 48% since 2004” LAC 53m
SSA Economist, Jan 14th 2010 265m
“One new food bank opens every week in UK as more people find they cannot afford to feed themselves and their families” London Times, April 17th 2012
Food systems are failing a further 2 billion! 1 billion with insufficient nutrition
1 billion with too much food and/or “poor� diet
How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security? Food Security, i.e. stability over 4me for: FOOD UTILISATION • Nutri.onal Value • Social Value • Food Safety
FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Alloca.on • Preference
?
FOOD AVAILABILITY • Produc.on • Distribu.on • Exchange
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit, 1996)
Concern that climate change will undermine food production in many parts of the world‌ Anticipated wheat yield decline by 2030 Reduction in wheat yields 0 - 5% 5 -10% 10 -15% 15 - 20% > 20%
Australia exports 15 Mt/yr (~19% of world exports)
Kokic, et al. Australian Commodities, 2005
… further compromised by O3 pollution.
• Significant yield losses for important food crops • Adaptation strategies were modelled, e,g. change of timing of crop growth period to avoid peak ozone, but no marked improvement was found
T a u h m o c n n a 4 p d d
Extreme weather events also disrupt food distribution systems ‌
… and food storage …
… and food safety. • Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage • Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in pest pressure • Trace elements and/or heavy metals in plant products depending on changes in their abundance and availability in soils • Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in foods following changes in longrange atmospheric transport and deposition into the environment • Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms • Pathogenic bacteria in foods following more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as flooding and heat waves. Miraglia et al., Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009
Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability
Consequences of the 2008 Food Price Crisis
Bringing it all together Need to consider FS:PB interactions in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs
GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level
Food System ACTIVITIES
‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles
Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food
Food System OUTCOMES
DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology
Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion
Contributing to: Food Security Social Welfare
Food Utilisation
Food Access
Food Availability
Environ Welfare
So what do we do about it?
ü Adapt to inevitable change ü Mitigate further change
Adaptation “doing things differently” Producing food
=> adapt our Food System “Activities”
Processing & packaging food Distributing & retailing food Consuming food
Adaptation: Improved agriculture, livestock, horticulture, aquaculture, fisheries, … • More varied crops • Stress-tolerant varieties • Wider range of food stuffs • Novel food producing systems • Improve water mgmt • Insurance for producers • …
Adaptation: Preserving crop varieties for the future
• Opened 2008 • > 4,000,000 samples • -18 oC • “Climate-change proof”
Adaptation: Improving food storage
~ 15-25% losses to pests and damp in store
Adaptation: Considering novel foods?
Tuomisto & Teixeira de Mattos. Env Sci & Tech, 2011
Mitigation: improving N-use efficiency? China grain production and fertilizer consumption (1980 = 100) 375
Grain
327
Fertilizer 204 139 100
144
151
100
1980
1990
2000
2005
Considerable food production achievement BUT inefficient use (quantity, timing)
Still a need to improve N-use efficiency N inputs – N output in crop kg N/ha/yr
Western Kenya (maize-based system) North China (maize-wheat) USA (maize-soybean)
-52
+227 +10
Vitousek et al, Science, 2009
Mitigation: reduced tillage?
ü Reduce SOC oxidation ü Reduce input energy
Mitigation: Sequestering more carbon in soil? N Cost of Carbon Sequestration • At a C/N ratio of 12 in soil organic matter (SOM), 1 tonne of stored C requires 83 kg N/ha • At approximately $0.85/kg N applied, N cost of 1 tonne SOM is $71/ha • Current price of C on European market is < $25… Ken Cassman, pers comm
Mitigation: Reducing food miles?
The Well Travelled Yogurt Pot: Stefanie Bรถge
What about us as individuals? Adaptation/Mitigation: Accepting less choice?
Tesco Oxford has 25,000 different food linesâ&#x20AC;Ś
Adaptation & Mitigation: Modifying our diets?
=> One of the biggest, most immediate impacts!
Behavioural Change and Personal Action CO2 emissions Emissions reductions (MtCO2e) achievable if adopted by 100% of the US population Consume less red meat and diary: Eat poultry in place of red meat and consume plant-based food rather than dairy two days per week
105
Waste less food: Reduce consumer food waste by 25%
65
Input Suppliers
Reducing food waste
Farmers
Processors
Transporters
Retailers
Final Consumers
• May occur anywhere along the supply chain, from farm to final consumer • Difficult to measure • Globally, 15-50% of food is lost postharvest • Often unnoticed until too late