4 Gap Analysis
The analysis of the existing literature in the previous chapters indicates that more evidence-based research is required into the true role played by armed non-state actors participating in the illegal wildlife trade. In order to formulate effective policy responses to counter the illegal wildlife trade, the international community needs to understand why these actors have become entrenched in the wildlife trade, and what may happen if they are denied access to these resources. There are four principal dimensions to this issue. 1. Gathering evidence on the actors involved in the illegal wildlife trade
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It is clear that there has been a sharp rise in the illegal wildlife trade over the past few years. However, the true extent of the trade has not yet been ascertained. This would be difficult to analyse, as this trade may cross over into a variety of illicit trades, including, as noted, drug-smuggling and money-laundering. However, concerted efforts by transnational agencies such as INTERPOL and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) have begun to assess patterns and crossovers between these crimes. This review has found no evidence-based study that examines the reasons behind what draws armed non-state actors to the illegal wildlife trade. An investigation is needed to understand how reliant these groups are on the ivory and rhino horn trades. What will these groups do if the illegal wildlife trade is effectively policed by the international community? Why have these groups turned to wildlife poaching, and how did they sustain their activities before?
2. Assessing long-term political implications of the illegal wildlife trade
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Targeted research is required into the long-term political implications of the wildlife trade, for countries involved at different points along the chain. This is necessary in order to formulate a targeted, long-term action plan against wildlife trafficking. Research is also needed into any negative unintended consequences of security responses in tackling the illegal wildlife trade. If one set of poachers or armed non-state actors is driven away from the trade, will others take its place? How do these dynamics fit into transnational organized crime syndicates?
3. Evaluating the illegal wildlife trade chain
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In order to break down the illegal wildlife trade chain, transnational links in organized crime need to be evaluated along the entire chain. Currently, much of the analysis on the illegal wildlife trade focuses on one end of the chain: poaching and the role of armed
