Cold Calling

DANNY WILLIAMS ‘COLD CALLING’

Each month our special correspondent Danny Williams* replies to a reader’s letter...

“When I shut my premises up at the end of March last year I wondered if they would ever open again, let alone face the crazy boom we are going through currently. There doesn’t seem to be any sight of it finishing but I can’t help worrying that we will go from boom, to bust just as quickly. What is your take Danny?”

JG Installer, Lancashire

Our industry is still run by entrepreneurs, seat of the pants merchants who, like me, have managed to carve out a half and even fully decent living despite having a poor education (mostly because I was out there trying to turn a coin into something bigger, even as a kid) and no formal business qualifications. I am good with my hands, can whip the motor out of an 18 tonner, fix it and put it back in, then drive the forklift and deliver a load of frames in said 18 tonner. I have been in business for 35 years, employ 70 people, manufacture a range of windows and doors in aluminium and PVC-U and have contracts to manufacture and replace windows in a number of NHS estates as well as other commercial sites, including CrossRail.

I deal with a number of suppliers that are run by professional managers, one or two of whom have MBAs and accountancy qualifications and a long and successful record of running companies successfully, and even managing to keep people like me generally happy, no mean feat. The one key thing that links us all, is that we cannot, possibly forecast what will happen in 18 months’ time, despite all of our collective abilities and experiences. In my 35 years at the coalface, I have never seen anything like what we are going through as an industry JG, not in terms of sales, but especially in the conditions that, despite us and our installer customers having bursting order books, at almost discount-free prices, we are tearing our (in my case, largely imaginary) hair out. I called to find out a little more about you JG and you told me that, despite buying from your main frame supplier, now a personal friend, for more than 25 years, paying on the dot throughout, he is rationing you to 25 frames a week; and despite the system he supplies being one of the larger and more established brands in the industry. You balance this against employing three teams of fitters, who you are determined to hang on to because if you lay them off, you will struggle to replace them as finding even half decent people is damned near impossible. Fortunately, you said, sliding and bi-folding door installs keep them profitably occupied, plus a bit of roofline and the odd connie.

You are, therefore, making money. As am I. I happen to have the best team of people around me to manage the business that I have ever had, but the aggravation of pulling this all together tests my patience. Which is not known to be overflowing. And which is especially tried by the somewhat less than ethical tactics of the cowboy employment agencies that are doing their best to nick my staff. That is me, Danny, who began life by selling ‘u-PVC’ windows, in the ‘Eighties, in Essex, calling these people cowboys. I know one when I see one.

So, what can I say with any certainty? Well, I believe that materials and component shortages will be with us for some time yet, although there are signs that some lines are improving. In the UK we are ahead of most of the world in our recovery from the pandemic; but when the rest of the planet recovers, other markets will experience a surge in demand just like ours. I am concerned that as huge countries like India and Brazil get their act together and start manufacturing again, our already fragile supply chains will be plunged into deeper chaos. High prices will be with us now for as far as we can see into the future; in fact this is the status quo and we should settle down and not kid ourselves that it will all blow over, because it won’t. Even when supply and demand return to some sort of balance, prices will not return to pre-covid levels. Against the supply issues, sales will continue to surge, even into next year when surely, we will be allowed out and about to gallivant in foreign lands, educating Johnny Foreigner in the ways of the world, including the best of British etiquette including how to wear vests and show off our tats to best advantage. Having had a couple of years developing the battlements of our splendid castles we will continue to add the modern equivalent of new drawbridges and moats, whilst also finding the cash to go and annoy Miguel and Winston. With our industry driven by the ‘C’ word – Confidence – the critical driver of spiralling house prices will bolster homeowners’ collective resolve to continue splashing the cash on bi-folds and flush sashes. The higher prices are actually very good news JG and I sincerely hope, perhaps above expectation, that our dopey, lazy salespeople don’t revert to chopping 50% off their prices in the living rooms of Britain, just because they are too lazy to extol the qualities of the fabulous products that we place before them. We are an industry that produces substantially bespoke products, that are custom designed, manufactured and fitted to the specific desires and needs of every homeowner that invites us into their castles. Products that make their homes look and perform tangibly, measurably better. This is the way it has always been. But our products have always been underpriced. Now we are getting decent prices for our wares, albeit largely driven by higher costs, we must stick with the policy of ‘no discounts’, because they won’t get the stuff elsewhere, let alone at cheaper prices. Stay with it JG: it may be bumpy ahead but there is a smooth road on the horizon.

“In the UK we are ahead of most of the world in our recovery from the pandemic; but when the rest of the planet recovers, other markets will experience a surge in demand just like ours. I am concerned that as huge countries like India and Brazil get their act together and start manufacturing again, our already fragile supply chains will be plunged into deeper chaos.”