South Africa: before, during and after Covid-19

The article (Part 1 of 2) aims to stress how essential it is for South Africa to implement comprehensive measures to achieve speedy, equitably shared, sustainable economic recovery as the Covid-19 pandemic eases, and to give an overview of the approach needed to ensure successful recovery.

By Derek G Hazelton

During April 1994, South Africans were full of hope for the future as we cast our first votes as a free people. There was amazing unity of purpose, stability and, in some sectors such as water supply, there was real progress towards serving the poor. But by 1996, our government began to abandon its RDP (Reconstruction and Development Programme) socio-economic policy framework, and introduced GEAR (Growth, Employment and Redistribution). As a result, our expectations of reduced poverty and inequality, and the needed gradual

Derek G Hazelton, PrEng., FWISA, founderand manager of TSEWater Services

transformation of our whole society were dashed. De-industrialisation began and unemployment levels increased. But worse was still to come through Aids denialism and, later, shameless indiscriminate corruption.

By January 2020, poor service delivery, record levels of unemployment, especially among the youth, failed state enterprises and municipalities, and poor economic forecasts all competed for our attention. Our unity was destroyed. In relation to our achievable expectations, and our youths’ assessment, it had been a failed 26 years.

March to July 2020 Such was the situation in South Africa when the first Covid-19 case was confirmed on 5 March 2020. Twenty days later, the initial ‘hard lockdown’ was declared. The lockdown severely restricted the movement of people and goods to buy us time to get our health services in order. Simultaneously, government issued a set of disaster response directions. These had four aims: 1. To set up the institutional arrangements for the development

and implementation of government’s own Covid-19 response plans. 2. To outline those plans. 3. To set out the basic essential precautions we, the people, should take to minimise the risk of contracting and/or spreading Covid-19. 4. To set out the precautionary measures that need to be taken to mitigate employee health and safety risks once they return to work. Overall, our government’s speedy response to the pandemic is to be praised. Yes, there have been serious shortcomings, some of which are listed below. But it is still important to understand how difficult it is to govern during such a crisis.

Governing in a crisis Figure 1 sets out the institutional arrangements that were set up in terms of the disaster response directions. The speedy setup of the institutional and subsequent central procurement arrangements, and the allocation of responsibilities to municipalities to locate hotspots and lead much of the implementation and maintenance work were excellent.

However, as indicated in Figure 1, in our free South Africa, we have the institutional arrangements to ensure that all interventions are informed by two-way communications between the people and the top emergency Command Council structures. There is little evidence available to indicate that this happened. Rather, the national, provincial, metro and district structures tended to operate in the clouds with few links to their foundation, and ward councillors were not encouraged to act as the vital link between the people and the higher structures.

The press has valued the communication that has existed between it and government since the last general election. This communication, although usually carefully managed – together with the freedom the press has to publish investigative work – is vitally important, and hopefully appreciated by the wider public. This article owes much to what I have read in the press. I acknowledge this indebtedness, including the use by the press of writers who are not journalists for news analysis articles.

But beyond this communication with the press, government and its small core of professional advisors have been inaccessible. Unlike the press making use of a wide variety of outside writers, government has been doing too much

in-house. This closing itself off from the very people it exists to serve has reduced the effectiveness of its work. I partially outlined these shortcomings with respect to the water sector in my article published in WASA May/June 2020. The big avoidable errors have, of course, all been made by government ministers who have acted on their own and not as members of President Ramaphosa’s Cabinet team.

The two items no one foresaw at the time of the lockdown were the relatively low death rate caused by Covid-19 and the immediate impact and severity of increased widespread

FIGURE 2 History of new confirmed Covid-19 pandemic cases per day in South Africa to 4 June 2020

destitution due to economic contraction. Government had no plan to contend with this and, despite its commitments to provide relief, it has utterly failed to do so. I contend, this is not because government members are heartless creatures, but because government itself (and not only its critics) does not understand how difficult it is to govern during a crisis.

On 11 May, two actuaries published a report, which estimated that, based on 20 000 deaths due to Covid-19, the continuation of lockdown in its current form entails harms that outweigh benefits by a factor of at least 30. The report then states that, in light of this, continuing with such a restrictive and economically damaging lockdown would be a moral outrage. This conclusion is followed by a no-liability disclaimer and the statement that the report does not constitute advice.

Managing Covid-19’s ongoing risks Figure 2 is a history of the Covid-19 pandemic cases per day in South Africa, from the first confirmed case on 5 March until 30 June 2020. Also shown in the figure are three trend lines. For the first period – March and April – a linear trend line fit the trend better than an exponential one. But for May and June, similar exponential trend lines fit better. Thus, viewing it from the narrow aim of slowing down the spread of Covid-19, the lockdown worked well. The similar trend lines for May and June, however, indicate an ongoing exponential growth in the number of cases per day, with no significant sign of abatement.

Although this is of concern, it is important to realise that numerous countries in Asia and Europe have contained the epidemic through residents changing their behaviour without the countries relying on lengthy, strict lockdowns. We must, however, take note that lifting the lockdown does not mean we can relax. Rather, Figure 2 clearly states we must renew and improve our risk management behaviour. Only we, as responsible social beings and employers, can arrest the spread – and we must keep up to date on the most effective ways of doing this. We must also realise that the duration of the pandemic is likely to be much longer than we originally thought.

A summary of recent advice would highlight the following to minimise the risk of contracting and/or spreading Covid-19: 1. Keep at least one metre distance (two metres is better) from people. 2. As an additional precaution, when you are with people, wear a daily washed mask correctly, especially around those you are not living with. 3. Do everything possible outdoors. 4. When you must be indoors or must travel with people, keep the windows open and never use air conditioners that recirculate the air. 5. To become infected, you need to have contact with a minimum dose of the virus. Thus, exposure, say, for longer than 10 minutes and/or exposure to many people is much more hazardous than brief exposure to one person. 6. Work from home if practical and avoid unnecessary travel to enclosed destinations (the greater the distance travelled, the greater the risk of you spreading the virus). 7. Make soap and water as widely available as possible for 20-second handwashing and surface cleaning (sanitisers with an alcohol solution of at least 70% are an inferior substitute). 8. Avoid crowded spaces. 9. The elderly and those with comorbid conditions need to take extra care to limit their interactions with people, especially those not living with them. 10. If you develop symptoms or have contact with a Covid-19 case, selfisolate for 14 days (and do not go to work). It really is up to us. Government cannot reimpose lockdown. In fact, it must continue to relax it.

Despite this emphasis on personal responsibility, government must continue with its full programme and even improve its effectiveness by impartially considering all advice and criticism. The additional information in the 28 June 2020 update on the National Department of Health’s Covid-19 sacoronavirus.co.za website, headed ‘Key Provincial Issues’, clearly indicates how this department is improving its already highly effective programme despite the prevailing demanding circumstances.

Part 2 of this article will contain an update on how well or poorly we have managed to contain Covid-19, before describing how – as we learn how to live with the pandemic – we can and must build the South Africa our youth are rightly demanding. For more information, contact Derek Hazelton on tsewater@icon.co.za.