4 Shires Investment Commentary Winter and Spring 22

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( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( The( weak lira (is adding ( to (the( inflationary ( pressures in Turkey.( Prices and ( ( of( goods ( ( services in ( Turkey rose ( ( at their( fastest ( pace( in 20 years ( ( in February ( of this( year, with the ( consumer price index (up 54.4% ( ( (year-on( ( year. ( Food (( price inflation rose by 65.5% and transportation costs up by 75.8%, rising at a

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( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( rate last ( seen(in March ( 2002.( The( extreme ( inflation ( ( ( is( leading ( ( to( Turks( holding ( increasingly higher (levels of ( their money ( ( ( in foreign savings ( currency. ( ( Household ( ( are ( now in ( 55% denominated ( ( ( ( foreign ( currencies, ( compared with 49% in 2018, a process that in itself could further weaken the lira.

Turkish Lira/Euro – ECB – 1 year performance

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(Graph Source: Bloomberg)

Erdogan’s support ratings have been Cladding crisis – Who will pay? following a( similar (trajectory ( to the ( Lira, ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( The debate about illegal and dangerous with his political party, the AKP, losing ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( cladding has been on-going since the control of (Istanbul and in the ( Ankara ( ( 2019( (Grenfell( Tower fire ( in ( 2017 ( in which( 72 elections. ( (Opinion ( (polls suggest ( ( voters( are people ( ( died. At first,( high-rise ( ( tower blocks deeply unhappy with the economy, with ( ( ( ( ( clad in similar ( ( materials ( ( ( to Grenfell were the three ( out (of four ( Turks in January ( ( saying ( the (subject( of( scrutiny, but ( the( scale ( of the ( government was mismanaging the economy (MetroPoll 2022). Erodgan has promised to project became apparent in 2020, when bring inflation under control, but with his ministers guided that over 800,000 UK unwillingness to raise interest rates, the homes should be assessed for fire risk. Until inflationary spill over effects of the Ukraine the work to make the properties safe is either "crisis and supply chain pressures, means that fully costed or complete, valuers cannot assess the buildings worth, preventing he will have his work cut out. lenders from issuing mortgages on those

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