Managing Symmetrical and Asymmetrical Afloat Threats & the Role of Advanced Offshore Patrol Vessels

and Asymmetrical Afloat Threats and the Role of Advanced Offshore Patrol Vessels

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The Political Context for Change: ‘What do we need a navy for anyway?’ What

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The Rules of Engagement Did Not Allow the Sailors to Shoot Unless Shot at First

OFFSHORE PATROL vessels, frigates and corvettes have for a long time been the backbone of many naval forces. Now in 2016, they are emerging as the new driver of maritime security in an uncertain world that can no longer rely on Cold War or ‘uni-polar’ American dominated certainties. This Special Report takes a long hard look at what the recent changes in geo political trade and economic strength mean for demand to refit, upgrade and renew naval forces in Europe and South America, Africa and Asia.

The first article by Lürssen discusses the advantages of capability-based design for the improvement of mission flexibility for an offshore patrol vessel. Flexible mission capability is increasingly important as trade depends more and more on sea lines of communication. The emergence of new uncertainties and threats has increased the demand to protect and patrol the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) surrounding littoral areas.

Global market trends are the focus of the second piece, which tries to untangle some of the uncertainties in the emerging global market. This piece stresses the value of cooperation between nations to safeguard

security and the countervailing need for nations to build up security forces as a deterrent to protect their own national interest.

Perhaps the most important theme is discussed in the third item of the report. It explores the way naval warfare is changing in the second decade of the new century and how this points to a powerful trend of awareness of the need to improve technology on current naval vessels and change rules of engagement and surveillance capabilities to confront emerging dangers.

The final article looks over the horizon and attempts to preview the short and medium term future. Its conclusion should be of value to shipbuilders, because America’s new sense of vulnerability in the face of emerging Asian countries and China’s new commitment to enhance its maritime strength all point in the same direction for a strong and certain demand for the latest technologies for navies even in times of austerity.

Mary Dub Editor

Mary Dub has written about international security in the United States, Europe, Africa and the Middle East as a television broadcaster and journalist and has a Masters degree in War Studies from King’s College, London.

Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) - One Platform with Many Roles

Defence Against Pirates, Smugglers and Terrorists

Capabilities: The Key to Warfare Areas

Protecting Offshore Infrastructure and Other Natural Resources

Improvement of Requirements

Search and Rescue Operations

21st Century Naval Developments

“Whosoever commands the sea commands the trade; whosoever commands the trade of the world commands the riches of the world, and consequently the world itself.” Sir Walter Raleigh 1554 –1618 British naval explorer

SIR WALTER Raleigh’s thought about the nature of naval warfare remains true today in the 21st century. Indeed, and perhaps equally importantly, Sir Julian Corbett, the British 19th century naval strategist asserted that the sea was “uncommanded” most of the time. Both these insights, Raleigh’s and Corbett’s, would be recognized by 21st century naval decision makers. Why? For Western and NATO countries their navies are the product of thinking to meet Cold War requirements and strategy, but many of these requirements are fading.1 Some argue that the redistribution of global economic growth is reshaping the global naval market fundamentally, what will be built, and where is changing. Bob Nugent of AMI International2 argues that in the past decade of new naval design, work has shifted away from larger specialized vessels back to generalized, flexible and in many cases smaller platforms. He makes the case that the 21st century is seeing the rise of the Offshore Patrol Vessel, and that Frigates and Corvettes are busier than ever. There is a case to be made that frigates, corvettes and offshore patrol vessels increasingly substitute for cold war designs across the capability spectrum. Frigates act as flagships with radar and command and a capability to carry guided missiles. Corvettes are carrying helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for Mine countermeasures.

The Political Context For Change: ‘What Do We Need A Navy For Anyway?’

In the context of 21st century asymmetric counter insurgency warfare in Iraq, Afghanistan and counter terrorist campaigns in the Middle East, the Gulf States and Asian and Pacific countries, there was been a powerful challenge to the utility of seagoing vessels from the demand for sophisticated high technology ground and air forces with all their concomitant logistic and maintenance demands. A general popular and political understanding of the role of navies

is being lost in many Western countries and support for sea power is becoming increasingly problematic. What is more, in an age of austerity there is a strong case for doing more with less. Governments are demanding that many legacy and emerging navies must get more mission capability out of smaller hulls, smaller crews, and with lower total operating costs. This is being done in a multitude of different ways. Governments are substituting down: high-end frigates become the new “battle ships”, corvettes become the new frigates, and manned and unmanned naval craft are used for sea surveillance.

What Does This Mean in Terms of Market Growth?

Visiongain, the independent business information provider estimated that the global market in 2011 for warships and naval vessels would amount to $75.4bn.3 They noted in particular the growth potential in both China and India, which are expanding their surface fleet. This has given impetus to naval developments in the region. They reported that both Japan and South Korea were planning to acquire improved naval capabilities. The report for 2013-2023 noted other features. Although the warships and naval vessels market is an established defense sector, it is one that offers considerable opportunities for exploitation. Despite the decrease in defense spending in the West, the market continues to be driven by other factors. The withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan shifts the focus to modernisation of neglected fleets. Also, they argue, the changing nature of warfare, the continued threat of piracy and terrorism, and the rapidly evolving profiles of emerging markets, offer opportunities. So, Visiongain estimates that the value of the global warships and naval vessels market in 2013 will reach $77.17bn.4 In another report on the maritime security market, The Maritime Security Market 2010-2020: Piracy, Shipping & Seaports5, they argue that security of shipping and maritime counter terrorism are increasingly salient priorities and market

In an age of austerity there is a strong case for doing more with less. Governments are demanding that many legacy and emerging navies must get more mission capability out of smaller hulls, smaller crews, and with lower total operating costs

drivers to countries with long littoral borders. The increasingly regular occurrence of maritime piracy on larger high value assets such as cargo ships and oil and gas tankers has raised the awareness of maritime security. Not only are these incidents costly for the shipping and oil and gas sectors, the incidents also raise profound questions about energy security in a globalised economy and this has concentrated minds to tackle the problem of maritime piracy. Furthermore, the threat of maritime terrorism remains a very real possibility as terrorist groups see the potential to target such potentially explosive targets. All of these factors and others are driving increased spending on maritime security.

The Rise of China and its Maritime Interests

While these market drivers are important there is also a significant geo political shift. The United States with its still powerful navy is being forced to reassess its capabilities in the face of new developments in China. Professor Cole, at the National War College, Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, D.C. presents Chinese Naval thinking and it’s a very different perspective. He quotes a People’s Liberation Army strategist summarizing the Chinese worldview. ““In the last 109 years,

imperialists have repeatedly invaded China from the sea . . . 470 times, . . . 84 of these being serious invasions. The ocean has become an avenue for the aggressors to bring in their troops and haul away our wealth . . . The ocean is not only the basic space for human survival, but also an important theater for international political struggle . . . The better people can control the sea, the greater they have the sea territorial rights [which have] become inseparable from a country’s sovereignty.”6

The Link Between Economic Strength and Naval Capability

In Professor Cole’s view economic strength is paramount. As he says historically, national naval power has been linked directly with national economic strength. China’s remarkable economic growth during the past three decades, with its concentration in coastal regions and reliance on seaborne trade, highlights the maritime arena as a national security interest of the highest priority for Beijing. The remarkable growth of China’s economy, the broadening of Beijing’s global political and economic interests, and the resolution of almost all border disputes with China’s many contiguous neighbors have contributed to a newly confident international outlook.

US DESTROYER

The increasingly regular occurrence of maritime piracy on larger high value assets such as cargo ships and oil and gas tankers has raised the awareness of maritime security

Current Threats and New Roles for Naval Vessels

Don McBarnet, Staff Writer

“For in war . . . the common sense of some and the genius of others sees and properly applies means to ends; and naval strategy, like naval tactics, when boiled down, is simply the proper use of means to attain ends. But in peace, as in idleness, such matters drop out of mind, unless systematic provision is made for keeping them in view.” Alfred Thayer Mahan 1840 –1914 American naval geo-strategist

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S much quoted ‘pivot to Asia’ is an important signal of a shift in American priorities, as eyes swivel from looking West to Europe to looking East to the Pacific and Asia. Some politicians are looking at the intended and unintended consequences of this reorientation, as Asia moves forward from the Cold War heritage.

What is the Cold War Situation?

What is the Cold War status quo?7 For some the United States, Japan, and Australia have been described as the post-Cold War democratic neo-liberal anchors for Asia-Pacific security. Both Australia and Japan are island nations, dependent on long, vulnerable sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Australia’s primary sphere of strategic interest extends from the mid-Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and South China Sea to the Southwest Pacific. Japan’s SLOCs are encompassed by Australia’s. Both the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) and Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF) maintain P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft that cover these regions, in Japan’s case up to the northwest Pacific and the East China Sea. The two countries’ air patrol craft maintain electronic data links allowing them to share information on ship movements throughout the areas of combined operations. The U.S. Seventh Fleet also patrols these areas.

The United States Interest in Regional Cooperation at Odds With Regional National Interests

Professor Simon of the American National Defense University argues that the United States has been particularly interested in promoting naval cooperation in Asia. Its annual CARAT (Cooperation Afloat Readiness and

Training) exercises with Southeast Asian navies have included surveillance, SLOC (Sea Lines of Communication) protection, and minecountermeasures. Nevertheless, there exists a disjunction between the American navy’s focus on littoral operations and expeditionary forces versus regional navies that are interested in sea-denial capabilities to defend their littorals. Moreover, Southeast Asian states have a strong commitment to sovereignty in their territorial seas that even extends to their EEZs (exclusive economic zone). This jealous protection of sovereignty constitutes a significant obstacle to the cooperation needed for countering maritime piracy and terrorism. Moreover, piracy ranks relatively low among regional governments’ priorities. Illegal fishing and smuggling rank higher because their financial and human costs are greater. The new American strategy has been summarised by Pacific Commander, Admiral Timothy Keating, it is “based on partnership, presence, and military readiness.” Previous statements were more assertive, stating that strategy was “rooted in partnership and military preeminence.” In a cover letter authorizing the new strategy, Admiral Keating explained that: “it underscored the fundamental importance of sustained and persistent cooperation and collaboration in times of relative peace to mitigate situations that could lead to conflict and crisis.”

Changes to Market Demand

Bob Nugent in a presentation to the RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) reviews the impact of the pivot to Asia and the rise of the Asian economies on market demand for naval vessels. In a forecast for 2012-2013 he sees a maturing market for Offshore Patrol Vessels. But future OPV market by volume and value will still be

For some the United States, Japan, and Australia have been described as the postCold War democratic neo-liberal anchors for Asia-Pacific security

concentrated in NATO countries and the United States. But, he sees, 63% of forecasted new build OPV spending up to 2030 will be by non-NATO countries. He estimates that the strongest future OPV demand will be in emerging in Asia-Pacific and S. American markets. His view of the Middle Eastern and North African market is oriented toward more heavily armed corvettes and frigates. He thinks Saudi Arabia will continue to demand frigates and corvettes, Egypt fast missiles craft, and Algeria and Morocco corvettes. The Gulf States of UAE and Qatar will be in the market for both frigates and corvettes.

Tension in Asia

With the rise of China and a changing balance of economic power and therefore military capability, there has been a rebalancing of the traditional regional political tensions. For example, Japan has been taking a tougher approach to foreign policy. Recent rhetoric concerning the East China Sea and the Senkaku Islands, which the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands, makes it appear that the Japanese government is taking a tougher approach on foreign policy and military affairs. Its decision to purchase the disputed islands in September triggered outrage from China and spawned observations that Japan is veering toward the right. And whether it is veering towards the right or not the political

views are very passionately held. To be sure, there are some signs that suggest a shift to the right.8 Japanese citizens’ awareness of territorial issues with China, South Korea, and Russia has indeed risen in recent years, and conservative politicians are dominating headlines with declarations of Japan’s growing muscle: recently, former Prime Minister, Yoshihiko Noda vowed that he would “never compromise” on the territorial dispute with China. And Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), has similarly pledged to defend Japan’s territorial assets. This type of maritime tension has strong implications for higher levels of naval defence spending.

FAST PATROL BOAT FPB 41, BRUNEI NAVY

THAI NAVY OPV

With the rise of China and a changing balance of economic power and therefore military capability, there has been a rebalancing of the traditional regional political tensions

It was the attack on USS Cole a United States Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Cole (DDG-67) on October 12, 2000, while it was harbored and being refueled in the Yemen port of Aden nearly a year before the Al Qaeda attack on the United States in 2001 that has been one, if not the, most significant catalyst to a change in thinking about naval vessels in the 21st century

Naval Vessels in Action and How Requirements are Changing

Meredith Llewellyn, Lead Contributor

THERE WERE three naval incidents in the 21st century that have had a major effect on thinking about the role of frigates, corvettes and off shore patrol vessels. It was the attack on USS Cole a United States Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Cole (DDG-67) on October 12, 2000, while it was harbored and being refueled in the Yemen port of Aden nearly a year before the Al Qaeda attack on the United States in 2001 that has been one, if not the, most significant catalyst to a change in thinking about naval vessels in the 21st century. What happened? The USS Cole was in Aden for a routine fuel stop. According to reports USS Cole completed mooring at 09:30. Refueling started at 10:30. Around 11:18 local time a small craft approached the port side of the destroyer, and an explosion occurred, creating a 40-by-40-foot gash in the ship’s port side. The blast appeared to be caused by explosives molded into a shaped charge against the hull of the boat. Around 400 to 700 pounds of explosive were said to be used. The blast hit the ship’s galley, where crew were lining up for lunch. 17 sailors were killed and 39 were injured in the blast.

The Rules of Engagement did not Allow the Sailors to Shoot Unless Shot at First

According to the Daily Telegraph reports9 the suicide bombers used a small craft and approached the Cole as though they were assisting in the refueling. There was no outward sign of hostility until the two men aboard stood up and gave a salute moments before the craft exploded, blowing a 40ft hole in the Cole’s side. The relaxed state of the crew and their rules of engagement disallowed them from shooting at the approaching small craft. This asymmetric attack on an American warship, the first since

1987 signaled a change in vulnerability for large naval vessels and became a driver for a change in direction and demand for small mobile, fast moving off shore maritime craft with changed rules of engagement.

The INS Hanit Attack by Hezbollah Anti-Ship Missile

The second incident that changed perceptions of the type of naval vessel required was the attack on the Israeli Sa’ar 5-class corvette, built by Northrop Grumman. In 2006 during the Lebanese war the INS vessel was patrolling in Lebanese waters, 10 nautical miles off the coast of Beirut. It was attacked on July 14, 2006 on the waterline, by a missile fired by Hezbollah that reportedly set the flight deck on fire and crippled the propulsion systems inside the hull. The ships early warning system and missile defense system was not deployed. Four Israeli crewmembers were killed. According to Frank Gardner of the BBC reporting at the time10: the weapon used by Hezbollah was the Iranian-made C-802 anti-ship missile, a variant of the Chinese Silkworm missile. More importantly still Gardner argues that: the Israeli military appears to have been taken by surprise by the attack and now believes that Iranian advisers from the IRGC were present at the launch of the missile.

The Sinking of the ROKS Cheonan Near The Border of North Korea

But it was the sinking of the ROKS(Republic of Korea Ship) Cheonan a South Korean Pohangclass corvette of the Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) that is proving to be one of the key drivers for the upgrading of corvettes, frigates and off shore patrol vessels in Asia. On 26 March 2010, it broke in two and sank near the sea border with North Korea. An investigation conducted

“The object of naval warfare must always be directly or indirectly either to secure command of the sea or to prevent the enemy from securing it” Sir Julian Corbett (l854-l922) British naval strategist

by an international team of experts from South Korea, United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Sweden concluded that Cheonan was sunk by a torpedo launched by a North Korean, Yeono class miniature submarine. On 9 July 2010, the United Nations Security Council issued a Presidential Statement condemning the attack but without identifying the attacker. This incident was taken very seriously indeed by both the United States and China and it ratcheted up the tension between the two countries as a report by RUSI notes.11 The sinking of the Cheonan was followed by a calculated decision in the Pentagon to deploy the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea for a joint military drill with South Korean naval and air forces. The drill was intended to leave Pyongyang in no doubt of the resolve of the US-ROK alliance. The presence of the American aircraft carrier provoked a strong response from China’s media: The strength of the reaction of China’s statecontrolled media and of China’s Foreign Ministry

to the carrier’s deployment seemingly caught Washington off-guard with a series of editorials, statements and articles. Most described the deployment as provocative, and one editorial went so far as to compare it to the Cuban Missile Crisis. In the most extreme example, a Chinese defence analyst was quoted as saying that the carrier would be targeted by Chinese weapons systems.12

The Significance of These Three Events

The impact of these three naval incidents has profoundly changed the perspective of many newly wealthy Asian nations with long littoral borders or a counter terrorism problem. The use of asymmetric tactics by small craft, the use of torpedoes and submarines have led to a powerful feeling of vulnerability and a political demand that old vessels should be re equipped with the latest technologies and new platforms should be built to counter rising maritime threat levels.

FRIGATE ALVARO DE BAZAN (F101)

The use of asymmetric tactics by small craft, the use of torpedoes and submarines have led to a powerful feeling of vulnerability and a political demand that old vessels should be re equipped with the latest technologies and new platforms should be built to counter rising maritime threat levels

Looking Over the Horizon: Naval Forces for the Future

Mary Dub, Editor

“I’ve moved from being curious about what they’re doing, to being concerned about what they’re doing. I see a fairly significant investment in high-end equipment –satellites, ships … anti-ship missiles, obviously high-end aircraft and all those kinds of things. They are (also) shifting from a focus on their ground forces to focus on their navy … and their air force. It is the (lack of) transparency … with respect to China that is probably most vexing, because it is difficult to figure out where they’re headed.”

Joints Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen

AS PRESIDENT Obama approaches the end of his Presidency, his ‘pivot to Asia’ has been much discussed in the press. What does it mean for the future demand for new and the refitting and maintenance of legacy frigates, corvettes and off shore patrol vessels in the area? From the reporting of incidents in the Pacific there is certainly some evidence of a need to enhance naval forces in the area. And the threat from a more active China may be growing. In the recent November 2012 18th Party congress the retiring President Hu Jintao made it clear how important he thought defending China’s maritime interests are. He said the Party “should [. ] resolutely safeguard China’s maritime rights and interests, and build China into a maritime power”.13 This seems to point to increasing tension in the area. How does this play out for Western and NATO naval forces? Some argue that Obama’s pivot to Asia is misguided and misunderstood,14 and that the “pivot to Asia” is based on a serious misreading of its target. China, Ross says, remains far weaker than the United States and is deeply insecure. To make Beijing more cooperative, Washington should work to assuage China’s anxieties, not exploit them. The article quotes four examples of where China appears to be becoming more aggressive: firstly, at the 2009 Climate Change Conference, secondly, following the January 2010 sale of U.S. arms to Taiwan, at the Chinese government suspension of a senior U.S.-Chinese security dialogue and the announcement of unprecedented sanctions against U.S. companies with ties to Taiwan. Thirdly, in July 2010 Beijing angrily protested against plans for U.S.–South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, and in September,

it excoriated Japan for detaining the captain of a Chinese fishing boat that had rammed a Japanese coast guard ship in disputed waters. Finally to cap it all, it put paid to work done to note its ‘peaceful rise”, by imposing economic sanctions on Norway after the Nobel Prize committee awarded the Chinese democracy activist Liu Xiao Bo the Peace Prize in October 2010.

The Other Option to Rearming and Tension

While the talk of maritime tension and the need for area denial seems like good news for ship builders, there are others who argue that ratcheting up tension and increasing naval forces is not the best way forward. Professor Peter Nolan of the Judge Business School in Cambridge in the United Kingdom argues that there is only one option “cooperation with China”.

If America seeks long-term security it faces a ‘choice of no choice’. It must cooperate with Communist China to support the construction of a harmonious society internally within China. The areas of necessary cooperation include resolving China’s energy needs, its ecological difficulties, its

Powerful fast vessels equipped with the latest anti missile technology and anti submarine warfare will undoubtedly be much in demand

TYPE F 124 CLASS FRIGATE, GERMAN NAVY

financial system reform, and reform of its health and education system, and supporting China’s efforts to establish a just distribution of income. In other words, it must accept and contribute to China’s peaceful development.15 However, whether tension can be lowered or not there is unlikely to be a strong argument for slowing down the modernization of naval fleets in the area. Powerful fast vessels equipped with the latest anti missile technology and anti submarine warfare will undoubtedly be much in demand.

The Hazards to Shipping of African Littoral Area According to the National Defense University

While some countries are focusing on Asia, Africa is also a major and significant source of interest. Africa’s coastline has been hazardous for trade for decades with narco-traffickers now moving an estimated 50–60 tons of cocaine every year through West Africa to Europe. Piracy and hostage taking has doubled in the last two years. More than 1,000 hostages were seized in 218 piracy attacks off of East Africa in 2010, double the number of incidents in 2008. And armed robberies of local and international vessels in Nigerian waters continue to be a challenge and analysts expect increasing numbers of kidnappings at sea in 2011.16 Worse, illegal,

unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing is estimated to cost sub-Saharan Africa about $1 billion annually. While the economically strong countries of Asia may have the resources to face the need for maritime security by building naval fleets, Africa may have to use other methods. Vogel at the National Defense University makes the case for remote sensing and monitoring to reinforce meager security fleets and the use of the latest technologies as force multipliers to improve security to bolster trade and economic development in Africa.

The Case for Upgrading and Retrofitting Legacy Fleets with the Latest Technologies

To return to the opening thought of this article, the technology arms race is already being led by China and other Asian countries. In the face of arms build-ups and fleet building by economically strong countries it is difficult not to follow the path and rely solely on negotiation and cooperation. While the argument for peaceful cooperation to enhance global trade and universal economic interests is certainly compelling. The urgent requirement to ensure that naval vessels are effective in their role in delivering security by being prepared and armed for asymmetric attack, torpedo assault or submarine measures cannot be ignored.

GERMAN MULTI-PURPOSE CORVETTE

There is unlikely to be a strong argument for slowing down the modernization of naval fleets in the area. Powerful fast vessels equipped with the latest anti missile technology and anti submarine warfare will undoubtedly be much in demand

References:

1 http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Bob_Nugent.pdf Will “Warships” Still be Relevant to Navies by 2025?

If So, What Types of “Warship”, and to Whom?’ Bob Nugent, AMI Int’l 6 July 2011

2 http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/Bob_Nugent.pdf Will “Warships” Still be Relevant to Navies by 2025?

If So, What Types of “Warship”, and to Whom?’ Bob Nugent, AMI Int’l 6 July 2011

3 Visiongain 2011-2021

http://www.visiongain.com/Report/580/The-Warships-Naval-Vessels-Market-2011-2021

THE WARSHIPS & NAVAL VESSELS MARKET 2011-2021

4 Visiongain 2013-23 http://www.visiongain.com/Report/922/The-Warships-Naval-Vessels-Market-2013-2023

5 Visiongain 2013-23

http://www.visiongain.com/Report/922/The-Warships-Naval-Vessels-Market-2013-2023

6 http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docuploaded/PLAN_Cole_Remarks.pdf China’s New Navy: The State of Play in 2010

Bernard D. Cole Professor, National War College Fort Lesley J. McNair Washington, D.C. 20319-50789

7 A paper featured at the 2011 Pacific Symposium:

The New Security Environment – Implications for American Security in the Asia Pacific Region

Hosted by: The Institute for National Strategic Studies of The National Defense University

4-5 April 2011 By SHELDON SIMON

8 Tokyo’s Missing Muscle How Japan’s Politics Derail its Military Strategy Takashi Yokota and Kirk Spitzer October 17, 2012

9 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/yemen/1374316/Bombed-US-warship-was-defended-by-sailors-with-unloaded-guns.html

1 0 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5242566.stm Hesbollah Missile Threat Assessed by Frank Gardner, Jeruslaem

11 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C5C029388C73/#.UNLvPo40jdk

Growing Tension in East Asia RUSI Analysis, 6 Aug 2010 By John Hemmings, Senior Fellows Co-ordinator / Research Analyst RUSI

12 http://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C4C5C029388C73/#.UNLvPo40jdk

Growing Tension in East Asia RUSI Analysis, 6 Aug 2010 By John Hemmings, Senior Fellows Co-ordinator / Research Analyst RUSI

13 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebd9b4ae-296f-11e2-a604-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Ft5B7a7F Hu calls for China to be ‘maritime power’

By Kathrin Hille in Beijing November 8, 2012

14 http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138211/robert-s-ross/the-problem-with-the-pivot The Problem With the Pivot

Obama’s New Asia Policy Is Unnecessary and Counterproductive By Robert S. Ross November/December 2012 Foreign Affairs

15 http://www.gbcc.org.uk/files/documents/CR50x.pdf THE END OF WILD CAPITALISM BY PETER NOLAN

16 http://www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/africa-security-brief/asb-10.pdf

Investing in Science and Technology to Meet Africa’s Maritime Security Challenges BY AUGUSTUS VOGEL February 2011