THE REALITY

• PETRO YUAN AND YUAN AS A RESERVE CURRENCY ARE NOT HAPPENING IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY

• CAPITAL CONTROLS AND OTHER ISSUES LIKE RULE OF LAW MAKE CNY UNATTRACTIVE

• DEEP US CAPITAL MARKETS AND RULE OF LAW ENSURE GLOBAL DOMINANCE OF USD FOR MANY DECADES

Conclusion

• FIAT CURRENCIES ARE SLOWLY MELTING UNDER THE HEAT OF EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY, BUT THE USD IS THE CLEANEST DIRTY SHIRT

• THIS IS AN ARGUMENT FOR HARD ASSETS, NOT FOR THE END OF THE DOLLAR

• THE DECLINE OF THE AMERICAN EMPIRE AND LOSS OF RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS (IF IT HAPPENS) WILL TAKE MANY DECADES

• WORRYING ABOUT THE END OF THE DOLLAR IS NOT USEFUL ON ANY TRADING OR INVESTING TIME HORIZON

• THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR IS CYCLICAL

• DEDOLLARIZATION IS NOT HAPPENING